Eight predictions for Round 1

The first three picks will be chalk: I know this might be a little boring at this point, but I’m hearing there won’t be any surprises at the top of the board. I expect Caleb Williams (USC) to go the Bears, followed by Jayden Daniels (LSU) to the Commanders and Drake Maye (North Carolina) to the Patriots, making it quarterbacks at Nos. 1, 2 and 3. That’s exactly the way I had it in my most recent solo mock draft, and it’s the order I have the QBs in my Big Board.

Michael Penix Jr. won’t fall past No. 13: The Washington quarterback is liked by several teams with picks in the teens, but I don’t think he’ll last past the Raiders at No. 13. That’s a little rich for my tastes — he finished No. 24 on my Big Board — but there are several teams looking for their quarterback of the future in this class, and his accuracy, experience and moxie make him appealing.

The Chargers will take an offensive tackle at No. 5 … if they don’t trade down: Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and JC Latham (Alabama), my top-ranked tackles, likely will both be on the board when L.A. is on the clock. Will Jim Harbaugh really pass on one of them when we know he wants to build from the trenches? It might take a huge haul of picks to do so. More on that in a minute.

The Titans will take a tackle or wide receiver at No. 7: Tennessee’s need at offensive tackle is too great; it can’t afford to trade down. Right? But what if wide receiver Rome Odunze (Washington) is available? My second-ranked receiver would be awfully appealing, especially if Alt is off the board. I still think the most likely scenario is the Titans taking Alt and starting a run on OTs — we could see six or seven more in the top 32. Alt, my No. 1 tackle, is exactly the player the Titans need to protect Will Levis’ blindside.

The Steelers will pick Graham Barton: Barton, my top-ranked center, has been a hot name in my calls with execs and coaches over the past week. People in the league think he’ll be really good immediately at the next level. Pittsburgh, which picks at No. 20 and has had big-time centers throughout its history, is the team most linked with Barton (Duke). I don’t think it’s out of the question Mike Tomlin & Co. trade up a few spots to make sure they get him.

The Bucs will pick Chop Robinson: I’ve heard Bucs GM Jason Licht is trying to upgrade his pass rush at No. 26, and I like the connection between the Bucs and Robinson (Penn State), who is skilled but didn’t always put it together in college. The Bucs ranked 24th in pressure percentage (27%) despite blitzing at the third-highest rate in the NFL (40%) last season, so they have to improve their front seven. They might still be able to land Robinson if they move down a couple of spots.

The Falcons will take the first defensive player in the draft: I see this as edge rusher Dallas Turner (Alabama) or defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (Texas). The Falcons’ defensive line was rough last season. Atlanta finished 32nd in pass rush win rate (30.9%). I have Turner ranked higher on my board (No. 9 vs. No. 27), but many teams see Murphy as an impact interior pass-rusher, which has increased his value.

This draft will break the record for most offensive players selected in Round 1: There have been 19 offensive players taken in the top 32 picks three times — 1968, 2004 and 2009. We might see 21 this year, and we’ll definitely get 20. In fact, one of the final guys might be quarterback Bo Nix (Oregon), who would be the sixth QB in Round 1, which would tie the record from 1983. We know teams value the fifth-year option for players, and it’s given only to first-rounders. I could see a team trading into get Nix late in the first round.

Five teams that could make Round 1 trades

Minnesota Vikings: This is the team to watch to get into the top 10 for a quarterback, most likely J.J. McCarthy (Michigan). But I don’t think the Vikings necessarily have to move into the top five. They might be able to move up only a few spots — maybe in a trade with the Falcons at No. 8? — to get McCarthy. Minnesota owns Nos. 11 and 23 in Round 1, thanks to its trade last month with the Texans.

Los Angeles Chargers: As I mentioned, the Chargers have major needs at wide receiver and tackle, but they might be able to fill those needs farther down the board. If team wants to trade up for a quarterback or wideout, L.A. could pick up some valuable capital in its mini rebuild under coach Jim Harbaugh. I could see the Chargers moving down a few spots and still getting Latham, who fits Harbaugh’s smashmouth, old-school style.

Philadelphia Eagles: My pal Adam Schefter teased this earlier this week, but the Eagles, who own No. 22, are the team to watch in the cornerback market. Will they move up for Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) or Terrion Arnold (Alabama)? They likely will have to get ahead of the Colts (No. 15) and Jaguars (No. 17) to guarantee them the guy they like, which could cost one of their second-rounders (Nos. 50 or 53). They don’t have a third-round pick.

Buffalo Bills: Are the Bills really going to stay at No. 28 and let the wide receiver board shake out in front of them? I don’t see it. They have to get an early contributor to help Josh Allen. I wonder if they’d make a move into the late teens for Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU), who might be their No. 1 wideout as a rookie. I just don’t think they can afford to wait it out. Buffalo has two fourth-round picks and three fifth-rounders to use in deals.

New York Jets: I’m coming around to the idea of the Jets passing on tight end Brock Bowers (Georgia) at No. 10, trading down a few spots and taking an offensive tackle. They could get Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State) or Olu Fashanu (Penn State) and pick up extra capital. Remember that they don’t have a second-round pick as a result of the Aaron Rodgers trade.

Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington: If you’ve seen any of my recent mock drafts, you know how much I like Rosengarten, who didn’t allow any sacks in college. I think he’d be a perfect fit at right tackle for the 49ers. The more I talk to execs and coaches, however, the more I think he’s likely to fall into Round 2. I’ll definitely be giving high marks to whichever team takes him, though.

Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon: There was some buzz over the past month about Powers-Johnson being a fit in Pittsburgh or Miami in Round 1, but I just don’t see it on tape. The 2023 Rimington Trophy winner is versatile, but I’d feel more comfortable with him in the second round. He finished as my No. 57 overall prospect.

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: I really like McKinstry’s tape from the past two seasons, but his foot injury — a Jones fracture was discovered by doctors at the combine — might cause him to slide out of Round 1. The team that gets him could add a future star, though.

Four biggest wild-card teams in Round 1

New York Giants: Would they really pass on wide receiver Malik Nabers (LSU) at No. 6? Would they take McCarthy if he was still available? Daniel Jones had a dismal season and then tore an ACL in November, but he has never played with a true No. 1 receiver. Taking Nabers would be a way to support him, at least for 2024. They have to put Jones in the best position to succeed. Resetting with McCarthy wouldn’t fix their issue at wide receiver, putting McCarthy in the same disadvantaged position as Jones.

Los Angeles Rams: I’m not sure anyone really knows what GM Les Snead will do; the Rams haven’t picked in Round 1 since 2016. But I do know they at least have some interest in Nix, and it wouldn’t be totally shocking if they picked him at No. 19 — or moved down a few spots to take him. I also see defensive tackle, cornerback and offensive line as possibilities, so it’s not like the Rams are loaded with depth in other positions.

Miami Dolphins: This one is difficult because the Dolphins have so many needs and because Pittsburgh could take the Dolphins’ preferred interior offensive lineman a pick ahead of them. Miami also could take a No. 3 wide receiver or an edge rusher to add to its depth. There are several ways to go, which makes the Dolphins difficult to predict.

Chicago Bears: Don’t be surprised if they take a pass-rusher with their second Round 1 pick (No. 9). They’ve been linked to Odunze, but what happens if Turner or Murphy slips past Atlanta at No. 8? I also could see GM Ryan Poles trading back a few spots and going with edge rusher Jared Verse (Florida State), whom I have at No. 22 overall on my Big Board but whom some teams like in the top 10. All I’m saying is the Bears aren’t a lock to take a wideout.

We’ll throw in two “predictions” of our own:

ARIZONA will slide down.  If the Vikings think the Giants are interested in JJ McCARTHY, wouldn’t they go up to get him, or maybe the Giants up two spots to nail McCarthy down?  Arizona could still get a top receiver if they trade with the Giants at #6 (they would be guaranteed Harrison or Nabers). If they trade with the Vikings, they presumable would have #11 and #23 and be able to get a top tackle at #11 and they still would have #23 (and #27) to get a receiver like Brian Thomas or Xavier Worthy.

Based on their activity last year, we just can’t see them sitting at #4 and meekly taking Harrison.

DETROIT will move up.  Based on their drafts the last two years, we think the Lions like DB Cooper DeJean, a gamer and athlete.  Now at 29, they may think they need to trade up to get ahead of the division rival Packers at 25.  Miami at 21 and Dallas at 24 could be partners.

CHICAGO

Someone told the DB that the Bears had unveiled a $4 billion stadium proposal.  They were wrong on the amount.

The Bears unveiled a nearly $5 billion proposal Wednesday for an enclosed stadium next door to their current home at Soldier Field as part of a major project that would transform the city’s lakefront, and they are asking for public funding to help make it happen.

The plan calls for $3.2 billion for the new stadium plus an additional $1.5 billion in infrastructure. The team and the city said the project would add green and open space while improving access to the city’s Museum Campus and also could include a publicly owned hotel.

“This is not an easy project, but Chicago doesn’t like it easy,” Bears president Kevin Warren said.

The announcement at Soldier Field comes during a busy week for the Bears. They are expected to take 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick in the draft Thursday night and bank on the USC quarterback to solidify a position that has long been a sore spot for the founding NFL franchise.

The team said last month it was prepared to provide more than $2 billion in funding toward a publicly owned stadium in the city.

The proposal calls for $2.025 billion from the Bears, $300 million from an NFL loan and $900 million in bonds from the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority. The funding from the ISFA would involve extending bonds of the existing 2% hotel tax.

The Bears said the project would generate $8 billion in economic impact for the region. It would be built in three phases, and construction would take up to five years. The new stadium would be constructed on a parking lot just south of Soldier Field, the Bears’ home since 1971. The team’s lease at the 100-year-old stadium runs through 2033.

Mayor Brandon Johnson gave a full-throated endorsement, saying the project is in line with Daniel Burnham’s 1909 “Plan of Chicago.” Johnson said there would be no tax hikes or new taxes for Chicago residents.

Renderings show the Bears’ stadium would have a translucent roof and massive glass panels that would bring in sunlight and allow for views of Chicago’s famed skyline. The plan is to host major concerts throughout the year as well as Super Bowls, Final Fours and Big Ten championship games.

Although Soldier Field’s famed colonnades would be preserved, the spaceship-like stadium that was installed in the renovation two decades ago would be torn out and replaced by playing fields and park space. The plan calls for a pedestrian mall, food and beverage options, a promenade and a plaza.

“My administration insisted that any new project — especially one on public land — must deliver strong public benefit and public use for the City of Chicago, and I am pleased today that this plan does exactly that,” Johnson said.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, however, said he wasn’t on board.

“I remain skeptical about this proposal, and I wonder whether it’s a good deal for the taxpayers,” Pritzker told reporters Wednesday at an unrelated news conference. “I’m not sure this is among the highest priorities for taxpayers.”

Johnson, however, said that the financing for the project will not implement “any new taxes on the residents of the city of Chicago.”

Illinois’ top legislative leaders also were doubtful.

“If we were to put this issue on the board for a vote right now, it would fail, and it would fail miserably,” Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch said at an unrelated news conference. “There is no environment for something like this today.”

However, he added that the environment in Springfield does change.

The proposal comes as two other Chicago sports teams, the White Sox and Red Stars, have expressed interest in public funding for new stadiums.

Warren, who replaced the retired Ted Phillips a year ago, played a big role in the construction of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis through a public-private partnership when he worked in the Minnesota Vikings’ front office from 2005 to 2019.

The Bears spent $197.2 million over a year ago to purchase the site of the shuttered Arlington International Racecourse from Churchill Downs Inc. They envisioned building a stadium on the 326-acre tract of land some 30 miles northwest of Soldier Field, with restaurants, retail and more on the property — all for about $5 billion, with some taxpayer help.

The Bears had said they would pay for the stadium in Arlington Heights, with taxpayer dollars covering infrastructure costs such as roads and sewers. Those plans stalled, with the team citing a property assessment it said was too high.

By staying in Chicago, the Bears would remain tenants rather than owning a stadium in Arlington Heights. But Warren said he sees it as more of a partnership with the city rather than a landlord-tenant relationship.

NEW YORK GIANTS

If the Giants do get a shiny new toy at QB, Mike Florio wonders what they will do with yesterday’s model, QB DANIEL JONES:

The Giants seem to be serious about drafting a quarterback. Specifically, about drafting Drake Maye — if they can get him.

If they do, what happens with Daniel Jones?

They gave him a contract last year that guaranteed the first two years of the contract. Jones has $35.5 million in fully-guaranteed salary for 2024.

The Giants could try to trade Jones. They’d have to be willing to pay a large chunk of his salary, like the Jets did in splitting the $5.5 million obligation to Zach Wilson with the Broncos. Buy why not pay $17.75 million to move Jones, if keeping him means paying him $35.5 million to ride the pine.

That’s the other question. Would he play in New York or would he be benched? They signed Drew Lock early in free agency. His contract was curiously underreported to omit a $3 million incentive package. Which might have been calculated to conceal the team’s interest in drafting a new quarterback.

If they don’t trade Jones, it would be Jones and Lock and Maye on the depth chart. Would Jones be QB1? Would he start until Maye is ready, like Kurt Warner did 20 years ago when Eli Manning was a rookie?

The situation has hot-mess potential written all over it. Which makes sense. The Giants have been a hot mess since winning Super Bowl XLVI. Since 2012, they have the fourth fewest regular-season wins in the NFL, with 76.

If they do indeed get a quarterback to replace Jones, they need to figure out what to do with Jones in 2024.

It becomes an interesting decision point for the Giants on Jones, especially since they’ve blown each of the two prior key decision points. They failed to pick up his fifth-year option when they should have. Then, they gave him a significant new contract when they shouldn’t have.

Some would say the Giants blew three decision points on Jones, dating back to April 2019 when they put his name on a draft card with the sixth overall pick in the draft. Given that they’re currently thinking about using another top-10 pick on a new quarterback, that’s not an unfair characterization.

BALTIMORE

Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com on the WR RASHOD BATEMAN extension:

Wide receiver Rashod Bateman is staying in Baltimore, after all.

Bateman reached a two-year extension with the Ravens on Wednesday, which keeps the former first round pick in Baltimore through the 2026 season, the team announced. This surprising move was made eight days before the Ravens had to make a decision on whether to exercise Bateman’s fifth-year option.

There had been speculation that Baltimore might trade Bateman during the draft like the Ravens did with wide receiver Marquise Brown two years ago. Instead, Bateman made team history, becoming the Ravens’ first first-round wide receiver to sign a second contract with Baltimore.

“Congratulations to ‘Bate’ and his family,” Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said in a statement. “This is a good day for the Ravens.”

Bateman, 24, has had a challenging start to his career since being the No. 27 overall pick of the 2021 draft. In three seasons, he’s totaled 93 catches and four touchdowns.

It was only 13 months ago when Bateman called out DeCosta on social media for the GM’s comment about the team’s disappointing track record for drafting pass-catchers.

In a deleted post, Bateman wrote: “How bout you play to your player’s strength and stop pointing the finger at us and #8 [Lamar Jackson].” Bateman later said he spoke to DeCosta, saying, “now we’re best friends.”

Bateman’s first two seasons were derailed by injuries. Bateman missed the first six games of his rookie season after undergoing hernia surgery and was then sidelined for the final nine games of his second season after having foot surgery.

Last season, in his first full season, Bateman didn’t appear to be on the same page as quarterback Lamar Jackson at times and finished with 32 receptions for 367 yards and one touchdown. At the NFL combine last month, Ravens coach John Harbaugh predicted Bateman would take “a big step” in 2024.

“Rashod is going to get opportunities this year,” Harbaugh said in March. “He ran routes really well. He worked super hard. He was healthy for the first time — even as the year went on, he got healthier, and you could see it in his play. The ball got to him, [and] when it did, he made some great plays. The ball is going to get to him a lot more next year. He’s going to be ready to go.”

Bateman is projected to be the Ravens’ No. 2 wide receiver behind Zay Flowers. Baltimore’s other wide receivers are Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, Deonte Harty and Sean Ryan.

CINCINNATI

Will the Bengals give WR TEE HIGGINS his trade tonight?  Mike Florio:

With 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk potentially available in trade tonight, another receiver who is looking for a new contract might also be available.

Bengals receiver Tee Higgins, the first pick in round two of the 2020 draft, is restricted by the franchise tag. He’s due to make $21.8 million this year. He reportedly asked for a trade in March.

More recently, he said he expects to play for the Bengals this year. On Wednesday, however, Adam Schefter of ESPN.com posted this on X, in connection with defensive end Trey Hendrickson’s request for a trade: “Bengals franchise WR Tee Higgins also has requested to be traded being that there have been no contract talks with the team now in over a year.”

When the trade request originally was made, we heard that no one had engaged the Bengals. With teams now potentially trying to get Aiyuk, it makes sense to at least ponder the possibility of trying to get Higgins instead.

But how does that request mesh with Higgins’s public comments? It’s possible that Higgins is taking the high road, saying what needs to be said while his representation engages in the more difficult communications.

It all comes down to whether another team will pay Higgins what he wants and whether another team would give the Bengals the compensation they’d expect. If it’s going to happen, it makes sense for it to happen tonight.

The Bengals have another unhappy player in EDGE TREY HENDRICKSON. Florio:

Last year, the Bengals gave defensive end Trey Hendrickson a one-year extension with $21 million in new money. This year, Hendrickson wants a new contract or a trade.

To no surprise, the Bengals aren’t inclined to trade him.

Via Paul Dehner Jr. of TheAthletic.com, the Bengals have “zero interest” in trading Hendrickson to a new team.

Whether they’ll adjust his contract is another issue. He’s due to make $14.8 million in 2024 and $15.8 million in 2025. That’s below half of the current market, and he had 17.5 sacks in 2023.

Some would say his agent should have done a better job with last year’s negotiation. And while that might be true, the player isn’t happy. And the situation is out of whack. The Bengals should consider fixing it.

Hendrickson supposedly is considering retiring. While that might work with other teams, we’ve seen this movie before in Cincinnati. With quarterback Carson Palmer. If Jason Campbell doesn’t break a collarbone two days before the 2011 trade deadline, Palmer might still be on the Bengals’ reserve-retired list.

And, yes, no new deal can be done until the one-year anniversary of his last one. That’s just three months away. If the Bengals made the wink-nod commitment now to do the deal later, that would surely be good enough for Hendrickson.

NEW ENGLAND

Joel Corry of CBSSports.com with some deals the Patriots should consider:

The teams that are rumored to be interested in moving up to draft a quarterback are the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. The Giants, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders, respectively, hold the sixth, 11th, 12th and 13th overall picks.

There are three trades in recent years involving the third pick that could be relevant in creating a basic framework for a deal. The Houston Texans obtained 2023’s third overall pick to select edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and a 2023 fourth-round pick (105th overall) from the Arizona Cardinals last year in exchange for 2023’s 12th overall pick, a 2023 second-round pick (33rd overall), a 2024 first-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick.

The San Francisco 49ers moved up from the 12th overall pick in 2021 to the third pick for quarterback Trey Lance. In addition to the 2021’s 12th overall pick, the Miami Dolphins received a 2022 first-round pick, a 2022 third-pick and a 2023 first-round pick.

The New York Jets traded up three spots to the third overall pick to select quarterback Sam Darnold. The Colts received 2018’s sixth overall pick, a 2018 second-round pick (37th overall), a 2018 second-round pick (49th overall) and a 2019 second-round pick from the Jets.

A comparable offer may not be enough as the Patriots are reportedly looking for an unprecedented deal to give up the third pick. Here’s the type of blockbuster offer each of these teams could make that the Patriots shouldn’t refuse.

New York Giants (6th overall pick)

The Giants’ quarterback interest stems from there apparently being buyer’s remorse after giving 2019’s sixth overall pick, Daniel Jones, a four-year, $160 million contract worth up to $195 million through incentives and salary escalators in March 2023. Jones was ineffective last season prior to tearing the ACL in his right knee during a Week 8 contest versus the Las Vegas Raiders.

The 2025 season is the first year the Giants can get out of Jones’ contract without adverse salary cap consequences. Obviously, trading Jones would be the ideal way to part with him next year. Absent a trade, Jones would need to be released before the middle of next March. That’s because $12 million of Jones’ $30 million 2025 base salary becomes fully guaranteed next March 16 on the fifth day of the 2025 league year. Out of this $30 million, $23 million was guaranteed for injury at signing.

The Giants are reportedly most interested in Maye. Offering their 2024 sixth overall pick, a 2024 second-round pick (47th overall) and a 2025 first-round pick would certainly get New England’s attention.

Minnesota Vikings (11th overall pick)

Sam Darnold was brought in as a bridge quarterback on a one-year, $10 million deal after Kirk Cousins received a four-year, $180 million contract, averaging $45 million per year with $100 million in guarantees, of which $90 million was fully guaranteed at signing, from the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. Getting a potential long-term solution at quarterback is a priority for the Vikings in this year’s draft. Minnesota’s likely target would be Maye at No. 3.

A willingness to give up 2024’s 11th overall pick, 23rd overall pick, a 2025 first-round pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick for 2024’s third overall pick would be a better haul than the Cardinals received from the Texans last year or the 49ers gave the Dolphins in 2021 from one spot lower than Vikings. The Patriots insisting on All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson should be a deal breaker for the Vikings. Losing an elite receiving talent wouldn’t be putting a young, developing quarterback in the best position to succeed. Having a starting quarterback on a cost-contained rookie contract is the type of situation where a team can most easily accommodate Jefferson as one of the league’s highest paid, if not the highest-paid non-quarterback.

Denver Broncos (12th overall pick)

The failed Russell Wilson experiment deprived the Broncos of premium draft picks over the last couple of years, as 2022 and 2023 first- and second-round picks were part of the acquisition cost to obtain Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks.

Denver’s draft capital was further depleted in hiring head coach Sean Payton. Since Payton was still under contract with the New Orleans Saints, a trade was necessary for him to join the Broncos last season. Denver gave up a 2023 first-round pick (29th overall), 2024 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick for Payton. Because of this, it may make sense for the Broncos to include an accomplished young player in a trade for the third pick.

Denver’s best young player is All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. He is under contract through 2025 with his fully guaranteed $19.802 million fifth-year option being exercised. Jalen Ramsey in 2019 was the last time a comparable cornerback on a rookie contract was traded. The Jacksonville Jaguars dealt Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams for a 2020 first-round pick, a 2021 first-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick during the middle of the 2019 season when he was in his fourth NFL season. Ramsey became the NFL’s first $20 million-per-year defensive back right before the 2020 regular season started. Like Ramsey, Surtain seems destined to become the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back — which is currently Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander at $21 million per year — when he signs a new deal.

Surtain and 2024’s 12th overall pick should be enough to move up to the third pick if the Ramsey trade compensation is any indication. The Patriots would be getting the equivalent of three first-round picks and a fourth-round pick by accepting 2024’s 12th pick and Surtain. The Jamal Adams trade supports this type of valuation. The Seahawks acquired the All-Pro safety at the start of training camp in 2020 when he was entering his fourth NFL season along with a 2022 fourth-round pick from the Jets for 2021 and 2022 first-round picks, a 2021 third-round pick and safety Bradley McDougald.

At worst, the Broncos should be able to command a first-round pick and third-round pick in a standalone Surtain trade. This is the draft capital the Tennessee Titans received from the Philadelphia Eagles for wide receiver A.J. Brown during the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Given the Patriots would need to receive a king’s ransom to move out of the third spot, Surtain, 2024’s 12th overall pick and a 2025 third-round pick would be necessary. Surtain’s valuation for this trade would be somewhere in between the two extremes, but closer to Ramsey than Brown.

Las Vegas Raiders (13th overall pick)

The Raiders moving up is predicated on Daniels still being available because of the Commanders going in another direction at No. 2. There’s a preexisting relationship between Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce and Daniels. Pierce was on Arizona State’s coaching staff during the three years Daniels was the Sun Devils’ starting quarterback (2019-2021). Determined to get Daniels, the Raiders put 2024’s 13th overall pick, a 2024 third-round pick (77th overall), a 2025 first-round pick and a 2026 first-round pick on the table for 2024’s third pick. This is essentially a slight premium over the Lance compensation due to the Raiders being a pick after where the 49ers were in 2021 when they moved up, factored into the equation.

THIS AND THAT

MOCK CENTRAL

First up, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com:

As we get closer to the start of the 2024 NFL Draft (8 p.m. ET Thursday in Detroit on NFL Network/ESPN/ABC), I’m hearing a lot more chatter about potential movement between Pick Nos. 10 and 32 than in the early portion of Round 1. So, while we might get a little less excitement than I initially anticipated at the top, trades could come fast and furious deeper into the first round. With that in mind, here’s my final projection for the first 32 selections.

1 Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Caleb Williams                                       USC · QB · Junior

No surprises at No. 1. The Bears have been locked in on Williams for some time. They get their new face of the franchise.

2  Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels                                        LSU · QB · Senior

As we come down the home stretch, the whispers of Washington’s preference for Daniels have become a roar. I’m sure the Commanders have had suitors looking to acquire this pick — including the Raiders — but I don’t see GM Adam Peters passing on the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.

3  New England Patriots

Drake Maye                                         North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

I feel confident the third selection will be Maye. I lean toward thinking the Patriots will stick and pick. When you need a quarterback, you don’t try to get cute and move around the board.

4  Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr.                                Ohio State · WR · Junior

With the top three quarterbacks off the board, I don’t know that the market for the fourth pick will be all that tempting for Arizona to trade out of this spot. The Cardinals land a great player at a position of need.

5  Los Angeles Chargers

JC Latham                                                Alabama · OT · Junior

This is where we could potentially see a trade, but I’m going to take the Chargers at their word that they want to be a more physical team and improve their run game. It might be a little bit of a surprise to see Latham go before Joe Alt, but the former Alabama star is ready to rock at right tackle and is a more powerful blocker than his Notre Dame counterpart.

6  New York Giants

Malik Nabers                                               LSU · WR · Junior

In this scenario, I think the Giants’ selection would come down to Nabers versus Rome Odunze. To me, that’s a flip-a-coin decision. Taking Nabers here, New York opts to get more dynamic and explosive. I expect the G-Men to try to make a move up the board for Drake Maye, but I don’t think they will be able to pull it off.

7  Tennessee Titans

Joe Alt                                                       Notre Dame · OT · Junior

The Titans have a screaming need at offensive tackle. If both Alt and JC Latham are off the board by No. 7, I could see Tennessee trying to trade down.

8  Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner                                Alabama · Edge · Junior

It feels like I’ve had Turner going to Atlanta forever. I haven’t been convinced to change that opinion, so I’m going to stick with it. The Falcons have long had a need for help off the edge.

9  Chicago Bears

Olumuyiwa Fashanu                     Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)

I believe the Bears might be interested in trading down from No. 9, which could still put them in the range to land Fashanu. Remember, they only have four picks this year. However, if they do stay at No. 9, I expect this will be a selection to support Caleb Williams, whether it’s a receiver (Rome Odunze) or offensive tackle. I’m going with an OT here because GM Ryan Poles and assistant GM Ian Cunningham understand the importance of the offensive line, and I see Fashanu — Williams’ high school teammate, by the way — as a massive upgrade over incumbent left tackle Braxton Jones.

10  New York Jets

Rome Odunze                                       Washington · WR · Senior

I could see the Jets moving up a bit to secure Odunze, but he falls into their lap in this simulation. He’s a perfect fit for what they need. Aaron Rodgers would have a fantastic trio at receiver in Odunze, Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams (once he’s healthy).

11  Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy                                           Michigan · QB · Junior

I wouldn’t rule out Minnesota trading up a couple spots for a quarterback, but all the information I’ve gathered in the last couple days suggests the Vikings are not crazy about making a bold move up the board for McCarthy. I believe they’ve grown more comfortable with Michael Penix Jr. as a fallback option if a team were to leapfrog them for McCarthy.

12  Philadelphia Eagles                           PROJECTED TRADE WITH DENVER BRONCOS

Taliese Fuaga                                        Oregon State · OT · Senior

It seems like everyone is assuming the Eagles will be aggressive to go get a cornerback, which is a need, but they always are willing to invest in big humans in the first round. Fuaga is a perfect fit. He can start at right guard as a rookie and eventually replace Lane Johnson at right tackle whenever the veteran decides to walk away. Philadelphia hasn’t drafted a cornerback in Round 1 since 2002 (Lito Sheppard).

13  Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Penix Jr.                                             Washington · QB · Senior

I’ve been connecting Penix to the Raiders for more than a month now. I think they’ll try to move heaven and earth to go get Jayden Daniels, but with no deal coming to fruition, Penix offers a clear upgrade over the quarterbacks they currently have on the roster.

14  New Orleans Saints

Troy Fautanu                                                      Washington · OT · Senior

The Saints have been calling teams to try to trade up, and I assume they want one of the top offensive tackles. I’m not sure how they have the OTs stacked on their board, but I do feel highly confident that New Orleans will be taking a bookend blocker in Round 1.

15  Indianapolis Colts

Brock Bowers                                                      Georgia · TE · Junior

The Colts are another team that’s had talks about trading up. I won’t be shocked if they end up with Bowers. Keep an eye on Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell as another potential fit here.

16  Seattle Seahawks

Terrion Arnold                                                           Alabama · CB · Sophomore (RS)

Last year’s No. 5 overall selection, Devon Witherspoon, was a home run pick as a nickel corner. Riq Woolen has had an up-and-down start to his career, but there’s a starting spot at CB available for Arnold. New head coach Mike Macdonald will appreciate Arnold’s ability to take the football away.

17  Jacksonville Jaguars

Quinyon Mitchell                                                  Toledo · CB · Senior

It will not surprise me if Mitchell is drafted much earlier. Teams love him. This would be a great value pick if he’s still available for the Jaguars at No. 17.

18  Cincinnati Bengals

Byron Murphy II                                              Texas · DT · Junior

I won’t be stunned if Murphy goes in the top 10, but in this projection, the Bengals land the top interior pass rusher in the draft.

19  Washington Commanders                    PROJECTED TRADE WITH LOS ANGELES RAMS

Amarius Mims                                                       Georgia · OT · Junior

I can’t imagine the Commanders are going to sit back at No. 36 and hope that fate lands them a top offensive tackle early in Round 2, given the expectation that there will be a run on them in the first round. They could and should be aggressive to move up for a premium prospect at the position. Based on my discussions with college programs and NFL teams, Washington has done a lot of work on the top OTs in the class. Poised to make a first-round pick for the first time since 2016, Rams GM Les Snead has a chuckle and trades out once again. This deal could net him the 36th and 40th picks in the draft if he gives up a third-rounder in the swap.

20  Pittsburgh Steelers

Tyler Guyton                                                  Oklahoma · OT · Junior (RS)

Cornerback is in play here, but the Steelers continue down the road they chose last year by upgrading the offensive line. Guyton and 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones are two extremely athletic and agile big men who will anchor the O-line.

21  Miami Dolphins

Jer’Zhan Newton                                                    Illinois · DT · Senior

The Dolphins can’t adequately replace Christian Wilkins in 2024, but Newton is an excellent prospect who will have an immediate impact.

22  Denver Broncos                               PROJECTED TRADE WITH PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Bo Nix                                                                        Oregon · QB · Senior    

I don’t see the Broncos taking Nix at No. 12, and I know they’d like to fill the current Round 2 hole on their draft docket. This move allows them to add a second-rounder from Philly and come away with Nix, who looks to be a great fit for Sean Payton’s offense.

23  Minnesota Vikings  (via CLE through HOU)

Chop Robinson                                                 Penn State · Edge · Junior

Robinson is a dynamic edge rusher who fills a need for Minnesota.

24  Dallas Cowboys

Graham Barton                                              Duke · IOL · Senior

This feels like a perfect marriage to me. Barton is the best center in the draft, and the Cowboys have a void to fill at the position. He has the flexibility to play any of the five O-line spots, too.

25 Green Bay Packers

Cooper DeJean                                                        Iowa · DB · Junior

The Packers have loaded up on defense in recent drafts and they stay at it here. DeJean can play nickel back, outside corner and he could develop into a really good safety, as well.

26  Tampa Bay Buccaneers   

Jared Verse                                                        Florida State · Edge · Senior

I could see a team like Tampa Bay making a trade to go get Verse if he starts to slide. In this exercise, he’s available at No. 26 and would be one of the best value picks of the first round.

27  Arizona Cardinals  (via HOU)

Laiatu Latu                                                UCLA · Edge · Senior

I think the Cardinals would love to get a defensive tackle, so Jer’Zhan Newton could be the pick if he’s still waiting to hear his name called at No. 27. There’s a wide range of potential landing spots for Latu. At No. 8 overall, he could be in play for his former coach — Falcons DC Jimmy Lake, who served as the Washington defensive coordinator and head coach during Latu’s first college stop in Seattle. I also could see him sliding. He’s universally accepted as the most polished pass rusher in the draft and would fill a void for the Cardinals.

28  Buffalo Bills

Brian Thomas Jr.                                      LSU · WR · Junior

If Thomas starts to slip, it won’t surprise me if the Bills move up for him. I could also see Buffalo trading back and trying to land a couple of receivers early on.

29  Detroit Lions

Kool-Aid McKinstry                                       Alabama · CB · Junior

The Lions have done a ton of homework on the cornerback class. I’m not sure which player they’re targeting. In this case, the decision would come down to McKinstry versus Nate Wiggins. Detroit opts to reunite Kool-Aid with his college teammate, Brian Branch.

30  Baltimore Ravens

Nate Wiggins                                                 Clemson · CB · Junior

The Ravens always value players who can rush the quarterback and guys who can cover pass catchers. Wiggins has outstanding cover ability, but Baltimore will need to help him be a little more of an urgent defender against the run.

31  San Francisco 49ers

Xavier Worthy                                              Texas · WR · Junior

This is my favorite fit in the first round. We saw what Tank Dell did in a similar offensive system with Houston, and we know what Mike McDaniel has been able to build with so much speed at receiver in Miami. Worthy gives Kyle Shanahan a similar weapon.

32  Kansas City Chiefs

Adonai Mitchell                                               Texas · WR · Junior

Mitchell might have the most upside of any wide receiver in the draft. This would represent a nice value for the Chiefs at a position of need.

To recap Jeremiah – the expected top 3 QBs, Arizona sticks with Marvin Harrison, Minnesota and Las Vegas get their QBs without moving from 11 and 13 and Denver slides up to make BO NIX the 6^th first round QB.

Now, on to Lance Zeurlein, also of NFL.com, who has the Patriots sliding down and starting an entirely different progression with the Giants making it 7 teams for 6 QBs.

1  Chicago Bears  (via CAR)

Caleb Williams                                                 USC · QB · Junior

The Bears officially acquire their new face-of-the-franchise quarterback and move on to the No. 9 pick.

2  Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels                                                   LSU · QB · Senior

Is this Daniels’ first choice as a franchise? I don’t know and I don’t think the Commanders care, as they sit tight and draft the talented dual-threat quarterback.

3  New York Giants                 PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Drake Maye                                                         North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

In a trade up, the Giants might have to pay more than the standard trade chart would indicate, since the supply side of quarterback is dwindling but the demand remains high. Brian Daboll helped Josh Allen in Buffalo and may see a chance to do the same with the toolsy-but-inconsistent North Carolina quarterback.

4  Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr.                                       Ohio State · WR · Junior

With the Patriots making the move out of the third pick, Arizona could execute a deal to move back, as well. But in this projection, I have them sticking it out and just taking one of the best players in the draft.

5  Los Angeles Chargers

JC Latham                                               Alabama · OT · Junior

Surprise, surprise! While the Chargers could be looking at a receiver here — we all know they need one, after parting ways with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — Jim Harbaugh sits tight and takes the biggest bully on the block to fortify his run game and set the tone on the right side for years to come.

6  New England Patriots                        PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW YORK GIANTS

Joe Alt                                                       Notre Dame · OT · Junior

The Patriots decide to pass on both quarterback and wide receiver in order to land their bell-cow left tackle, attempting to fortify the trenches in what could be a three-year rebuild/restock for Eliot Wolf, Jerod Mayo and Co.

7  Tennessee Titans

Malik Nabers                                                 LSU · WR · Junior

Even if the Nos. 5 and 6 picks don’t go the way I have them, the Titans better have a contingency plan in case someone jumps them for Joe Alt. In this scenario, they land a future Pro Bowler with the explosive talent to accelerate Will Levis’ growth in Year 2.

8  Minnesota Vikings                          PROJECTED TRADE WITH ATLANTA FALCONS

J.J. McCarthy                                                     Michigan · QB · Junior

The Vikings wait it out for a bit and are rewarded with the ability to trade up just three spots to take McCarthy while hanging on to their No. 23 pick. (Per the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, they can accomplish this deal by moving a future Day 2 pick.)

9  Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze                                         Washington · WR · Senior

After some tense moments waiting to see if the Falcons would stick and pick Odunze, the Bears breathe a sigh of relief. Caleb Williams gets a new best friend and WR1 of the future.

10  New York Jets

Taliese Fuaga                                                Oregon State · OT · Senior

In my last mock, I had Brock Bowers in this spot, thinking New York’s poised to GO FOR IT with Aaron Rodgers at age 40. However, upon further consideration, the Jets have a Band-Aid at right tackle in Morgan Moses. Fuaga gives them the real, long-term answer they have been looking for.

11  Atlanta Falcons               PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Dallas Turner                                          Alabama · Edge · Junior

The Falcons need a pass rusher in the worst way, so the question simply becomes whether they take Turner, Byron Murphy II or Jared Verse here. The traits win out — Dallas hits Atlanta.

12  Denver Broncos

Quinyon Mitchell                                                   Toledo · CB · Senior

Despite everyone waiting for Denver to trade up for a quarterback, I have heard the Broncos are quietly putting feelers out there to move back and add another pick. If that doesn’t come to fruition, Mitchell becomes an instant starter across from Pat Surtain II.

13  Las Vegas Raiders

Troy Fautanu                                                        Washington · OL · Senior

The Washington big man has long arms, a broad frame and is extremely physical. He could be a plug-and-play right tackle early on, but also has the potential to develop into a body-moving guard if the Raiders choose to use him there.

14  New Orleans Saints

Olumuyiwa Fashanu                                                  Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)

Fashanu has the traits and flashes of a top-tier offensive tackle, though some teams actually see his best NFL position as guard. New Orleans is much more likely to view him as a left tackle, where he will be expected to beat out Trevor Penning, who has struggled to find his footing in the pros.

15  Indianapolis Colts

Xavier Worthy                                                    Texas · WR · Junior

The Colts need a weapon who can create explosive plays — and someone whom QB Anthony Richardson can grow with. I thought long and hard about tight end Brock Bowers here, but then I remembered that GM Chris Ballard was on the Chiefs staff that drafted Tyreek Hill and suddenly surmised, Oh, yeah — he’ll take the guy with world-class speed and separation potential.

16  Seattle Seahawks

Byron Murphy II                                                  Texas · DT · Junior

This might be a best-case scenario for the Seahawks, who need an impact interior D-lineman and are able to grab the best of the bunch (by a wide margin).

17  Jacksonville Jaguars

Terrion Arnold                                                    Alabama · CB · Sophomore (RS)

C.J. Stroud and the Texans put AFC South defenses on notice last season. Arnold is an in-your-face coverage talent with high football character and competitive fire Jacksonville coaches will love.

18 Cincinnati Bengals

Brock Bowers                                                Georgia · TE · Junior

The Bengals certainly didn’t expect to see Brock Bowers available here. While they need offensive line help and another receiver to eventually take over for Tee Higgins, they would be wise to grab Bowers here and target OL and WR on Day 2.

19  Los Angeles Rams

Jared Verse                                                 Florida State · Edge · Senior

The Rams really need to find an edge rusher, and this pick could come down to Laiatu Latu or Verse. Verse lacks the pass-rush polish of Latu, but his medicals figure to be cleaner and he’s the stronger run defender of the two.

20 Pittsburgh Steelers

Graham Barton                                                Duke · IOL · Senior

I know the Steelers have needs at tackle, cornerback and wide receiver, but hear me out. Pittsburgh certainly could use help along the interior O-line, as well, and Barton might be one of the safest picks in the first round as someone who can play center or guard as an immediate starter.

21  Miami Dolphins

Brian Thomas Jr.                                                   LSU · WR · Junior

It may be hard for the Dolphins to pass on a pass rusher like Laiatu Latu, but looking at the other quarterbacks taking snaps in the AFC, Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel might view this as an “arms race” selection — and it could truly make Miami the fastest team in the history of football.

22  Philadelphia Eagles

Cooper DeJean                                             Iowa · DB · Junior

This is a fairly easy decision for the Eagles, as they add a physical defensive back with good instincts and the toughness to play outside or as an interchangeable safety.

23  Arizona Cardinals  (via CLE through HOU) PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Laiatu Latu                                                        UCLA · Edge · Senior

Latu’s fall down the board is over, with the Cardinals moving up from No. 27 overall to grab the most polished pass rusher in the draft.

24  Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Guyton                                                     Oklahoma · OT · Junior (RS)

The Cowboys choose to grab the talented-but-inexperienced bookend out of Oklahoma who has the raw ability to eventually compete for a starting role at either tackle spot.

25  Las Vegas Raiders                      PROJECTED TRADE WITH GREEN BAY PACKERS

Michael Penix Jr.                                        Washington · QB · Senior

The Raiders trade back into the first round with an aggressive move to grab their potential quarterback of the future — who could quickly become their quarterback of the present.

26  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kool-Aid McKinstry                                              Alabama · CB · Junior

Tampa sits tight and finds a cornerback with good size and scheme versatility to jump right in and compete for a starting spot.

27  Minnesota Vikings (via HOU)        PROJECTED TRADE WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS

Nate Wiggins                                                   Clemson · CB · Junior

Minnesota counters its trade up into the top 10 by moving back. The Vikings still get a quality cornerback with elite speed and athleticism for Brian Flores’ defense.

28 Buffalo Bills

Chop Robinson                                                  Penn State · Edge · Junior

Brandon Beane needs a wide receiver after the Stefon Diggs trade. However, the general manager typically stays true to his draft board — and if a player with the upside of Robinson falls into his lap, he might not be able to pass him up.

29  Detroit Lions                                                                       

Darius Robinson                                               Missouri · DL · Senior

The Lions are in position to challenge for a Super Bowl right now if they can hit on a pick or two. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Detroit try to make an aggressive move up the board for a pass rusher. If that doesn’t happen, Robinson can play base end or defensive tackle and step into snaps very quickly.

30   Baltimore Ravens

Amarius Mims                                                        Georgia · OT · Junior

The Ravens need to eventually find a right tackle — and they might need to find one for this season. If Mims falls here, Baltimore could do much worse than adding one of the most physically gifted specimens in this draft.

31  San Francisco 49ers

Adonai Mitchell                                                     Texas · WR · Junior

Height, weight and speed. Admittedly, there is still work to do for Mitchell to reach his potential, but this is a perfect team fit. Plus, San Francisco could have starting spots open sooner than later.

32  Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Legette                                                       South Carolina · WR · Senior

It’s time for the Chiefs to find a wide receiver with not only size but the mindset to become an alpha whom Patrick Mahomes can lean on for the tough catch.

In Zeurlein’s world, no QBs for Denver or New England in first round with BO NIX still on the table.

Over at ESPN.com, what does Field Yates forecast?

Putting together a final mock draft is tough. There are a lot of smokescreens this late in the game, and surprises typically start early in Round 1. Remember when the Texans traded up to No. 3 last year and shook everything up? Well, something unexpected could change the whole board again Thursday — it’s part of the reason we all love the draft. But after months of studying this talented class and calling sources around the league, I have one final mock draft to project the 32 first-round picks.

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)                         

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

This pick has seemed like a formality since the moment Chicago agreed to trade Justin Fields to the Steelers — and perhaps even further back than that. Williams is an electric talent who extends and creates plays with the best of them, and he would walk into an excellent situation in Chicago with an offense ready for liftoff.

2. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

The Commanders have an intriguing dilemma at No. 2: Will they take the ultimate dual-threat QB in Daniels or the rocket-armed Drake Maye (North Carolina) to build their offense around? Ultimately, the signs continue to point toward Daniels as the more likely pick, and he would give Washington a jolt of offensive energy. He’s ranked second overall on my board, and he dominated last season throwing the ball vertically and tucking it to run.

3. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

My stance on the No. 3 pick for the Patriots has been clear since they landed there at the end of the 2023 regular season. They have to stay put and take either Daniels or Maye, depending which one is still on the board. No need to change things up now, as here the Patriots would land the 21-year-old Maye to get their offense back on track. His combination of 6-foot-4 size, arm talent and toughness forecast a bright future. New England was 31st in offensive scoring last season (12.9 points per game), and there are still holes all over that unit, but improvement starts with landing the right QB.

4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

It will be tempting for GM Monti Ossenfort to field trade offers to move down, as QB-needy teams will certainly call Arizona given that three quarterbacks have already come off the board in this scenario. But not moving off No. 4 just reinforces how special Harrison is as a prospect. His 28 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons rank first in the FBS, and there isn’t a hole in his game. Arizona was 30th in receiving yards from wide receivers last season (1,790), but Kyler Murray would get a serious No. 1 target here.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

JC Latham, OT, Alabama

What about the Chargers as a trade-back candidate for teams eyeing the quarterback class? Sure, but a deal doesn’t come together in this scenario, and Los Angeles could certainly decide to kick off the new era of Chargers football under the duo of GM Joe Hortiz and coach Jim Harbaugh with a tenacious tone-setter along the offensive line. Latham’s combination of power and footwork is rare, and he’d pair with Rashawn Slater to form an excellent tackle duo to help keep Justin Herbert upright and open up the run game.

6. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

It’s no secret the Giants have done their homework on the quarterback class, but I don’t believe it’s a shoo-in that they would take one here — even if Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is still available. New York hasn’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2018 (1,052), and it still doesn’t have a legitimate No. 1 wideout. The gap between Harrison and Nabers isn’t as big as you might think, and Daniel Jones and this Giants offense would love Nabers’ explosive traits.

7. Tennessee Titans

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

It would not surprise me if teams call Tennessee in an effort to trade up for Washington receiver Rome Odunze, but this is another situation where the board has fallen in such a way that it makes sense to just turn in the card. The Titans’ most pressing need right now is left tackle — they have to better protect second-year quarterback Will Levis — and Alt is the best one on the board. He has a 6-foot-9 frame, nimble footwork and really good overall agility.

Projected trade: Minnesota can’t wait any longer

Vikings get: No. 8

Falcons get: No. 11, No. 129 and a 2025 third-rounder

This is a smaller move up the board than we’ve discussed frequently during the pre-draft process — Minnesota jumping into the 3-5 range — but the Vikings can slide up just three spots at a much less prohibitive cost to snag a quarterback here based on the way the board is coming together.

8. Minnesota Vikings (via mock trade with ATL)

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

McCarthy would be in an excellent situation with Minnesota’s supporting cast, and the Vikings would also preserve their 23rd overall pick by moving to only No. 8 to get him. McCarthy has the high-end accuracy to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as well as the mobility to pick up yards on the ground. And I know Minnesota has Sam Darnold, but I believe McCarthy would start right away.

9. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

A strong case exists for the Bears to take Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, who would be an ideal fit in coach Matt Eberflus’ defensive system. But Odunze is still here at No. 9, and he would help Chicago form a new-look receiver trio alongside DJ Moore and Keenan Allen that would instantly rank among the league’s best. Odunze can make the tough catches and beat defenders once he has the ball in his hands.

Projected trade: Colts join the top 10

Colts get: No. 10

Jets get: No. 15 and No. 82

The Jets would love to recoup some draft capital after the Aaron Rodgers trade last April cost them their second-round pick. This move lands them a Day 2 selection but also keeps them in range for an offensive tackle if that’s their ultimate goal in Round 1. And moving up could be in play for the Colts if any of the class’ top playmakers start to slide.

10. Indianapolis Colts (via mock trade with NYJ)

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

I’ve heard some buzz from people around the league that suggests Indy wants to continue to build its offense around quarterback Anthony Richardson, and Bowers could be an instant game-changer. He’d be a massive boost for Richardson, as his excellent route running and after-the-catch traits make him a real problem for defensive coordinators. I like having Bowers team up with Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor. And besides, Bowers is simply too good of a player to last much longer than this in the draft.

11. Atlanta Falcons (via mock trade with MIN)

Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

The Falcons have been widely viewed as the team to take the first defensive player in the draft at their original No. 8 slot, but they might still manage to do it even after the small move back. No defensive players in the top 10 here! Atlanta needs pass-rush help after finishing last in pass rush win rate (30.9%), and Murphy would surely provide it as one of the most disruptive players in the class. Throughout the pre-draft process, he has drawn some parallels to Grady Jarrett, and I love the idea of these two wreaking havoc together as teammates.

12. Denver Broncos

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

No team has been more difficult to size up in the first round during this pre-draft process than Denver. The Broncos could of course be in the market for a quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson atop the depth chart at the moment. But they also have short- and long-term needs that better align with how the board might fall at No. 12. That includes a pass-rusher, as Denver was tied for 21st in sacks last season at 42. Turner, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year, would provide an immediate boost. He tallied 10 sacks in 2023.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Penix remains a hot early-Round 1 name as we get closer and closer to the draft, and Las Vegas is a logical landing spot after the team made only a moderate financial investment this offseason at the quarterback spot ($14 million per year for Gardner Minshew is, by quarterback standards, considered moderate). The rocket arm of Penix launching passes all over the yard to a wide receiver duo of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers is a whole lot of fun to envision.

14. New Orleans Saints

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

We are all familiar enough with the draft to know that very few things are certain. That said, I would have a very hard time seeing the Saints pass on Fashanu if the board fell like this. The Saints have question marks at both offensive tackle spots, especially with Ryan Ramczyk’s ongoing knee issue. Fashanu is a plug-and-play starter at left tackle, and New Orleans could slot him in there and then figure out where to move Trevor Penning. Fashanu has serious strength and quickness.

15. New York Jets (via mock trade with IND)

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

Let’s settle one of the biggest draft debates of the past month — and one that has existed since the Jets acquired Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses this offseason. Should New York further invest in the offensive line or draft an immediate contributor at a different spot? I believe GM Joe Douglas will choose to add another big blocker after the Jets used 12 different offensive line combinations in 2023. Fuaga is a mauler who profiles as a long-term starter at tackle with the added ability to play guard. Landing him and picking up an extra pick would be a win for the Jets.

Projected trade: Eagles skip the line to tackle a need

Eagles get: No. 16 and No. 81

Seahawks get: No. 22 and No. 50

Eagles GM Howie Roseman likes to move around in Round 1, and after defensive struggles in the second half of last season, they could be nimble on Thursday night to address that side of the ball. And the Seahawks would be happy to acquire a second-round pick because they traded their own to the Giants at the 2023 deadline to land Leonard Williams.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (via mock trade with SEA)

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

The Eagles need to get younger and faster in the secondary — James Bradberry is turning 31 this summer, and Darius Slay is 33 — and Mitchell is a perfect target. He broke up 40 passes over the past three seasons at Toledo and then aced his pre-draft process. Mitchell ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine, can play standout man-to-man coverage and has good size.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Jacksonville has a need at cornerback, and Arnold has a case as the best in the entire class. He had a breakout season in 2024, with five interceptions and 11 pass breakups. He has a combination of instincts and short-area quickness that allow him to thrive at the top of routes.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

On the heels of the news that Trey Hendrickson has requested a trade, Verse becomes that much more attractive of an option for the Bengals. He and 2023 first-round pick Myles Murphy would form the pass-rush foundation for the future, and Verse would be thrust into an immediate role if any Hendrickson deal is consummated. Verse has a great blend of in-line power and length. Cincinnati allowed 6.0 yards per play last season, highest in the NFL, so watch that side of the ball.

19. Los Angeles Rams

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

It has been a long time since the Rams made a first-round pick — they took Jared Goff at No. 1 overall in 2016 — but it has been much longer since we last saw this many quarterbacks in the first round. If Nix goes in addition to the other five we’ve already projected, this class would tie the 1983 group for the most in the common draft era. Matthew Stafford was great last season, but the best time for a team to invest in a QB is when it wants one, not when it needs one. This forward-thinking move would put the succession plan in place for Los Angeles. Nix is a precision passer who set an FBS record with his 77.4% completion rate last season.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Graham Barton, G/C, Duke

The Steelers released starting center Mason Cole very early in the offseason, and all signs point toward them taking a center in the first round because they have not made a notable move to fill that void. Barton was a center back in 2020 as a true freshman at Duke before moving to left tackle for three seasons. His best fit in the NFL is likely on the interior, and he’d help this Pittsburgh O-line.

21. Miami Dolphins

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

The Dolphins certainly don’t need to add another wide receiver, but is there a more tantalizing potential fit than the fastest player in the history of the combine (4.21 seconds in the 40-yard dash) joining the fastest offense in the NFL? Miami’s need for speed is well established, and this pick would create an incredible receiver trio with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Worthy.

22. Seattle Seahawks (via mock trade with PHI)

Troy Fautanu, G/OT, Washington

Following the trade down, Seattle could address its most pressing offensive need with a familiar face, as Fautanu was a star for Washington under new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. While Fautanu played left tackle in college, he has the skill set to move inside to guard. His footwork is the best of any lineman in the class.

23. Minnesota Vikings (via CLE/HOU)

Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Latu would join Jonathan Greenard for Minnesota’s new-look pass rush on defense. He had the best tape of any defensive player in the class and can become a double-digit sack artist in the NFL. After all, he had 23.5 of them over the past two seasons at UCLA. Medical concerns over a prior neck injury (while at Washington in 2020) would be the only reason he slides to this slot.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Cowboys must address the left side of the offensive line in Round 1, and Guyton might be the most mobile of the offensive tackles in the mix for the first round. Yes, he is a little green with just one full season as a starter (he played right tackle for the Sooners in 2023), but I love his upside. Dallas would likely keep Tyler Smith at left guard in this scenario, which is his best overall position.

25. Green Bay Packers

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Green Bay does not need a left tackle to line up for a game tomorrow, even without David Bakhtiari on the roster, but finding a potential upgrade over Rasheed Walker is on the team’s radar. Mims is a wild card in the first round given he had just 803 career snaps and eight career starts in college, but with light feet and a massive 6-foot-8, 340-pound frame, the sky is the limit. He just might need some time to further develop before becoming a fixture in the starting lineup.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

With two notable needs to fill — along the interior offensive line and on the edge — Tampa Bay could check one off quickly with Robinson. I’m high on him, ranking him 19th on my final board. He had only four sacks during his final college season, but his first-step quickness is outstanding. And there are several people around the league who think Robinson could hear his name called much sooner that this based on that potential and upside.

27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

Given all of the Cardinals’ draft capital (11 total picks), there is an expectation that they will be busy working the phones on trade-up opportunities. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they attempt to trade up for DeJean. But in this mock, they land DeJean at No. 27 without going anywhere. Arizona could immediately tap into his positional versatility that allows him to play corner or safety. I’d keep him at corner, but the flexibility boosts his value — which is already pretty high after seven interceptions over the past two seasons.

28. Buffalo Bills

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Buffalo taking a first-round receiver might be too predictable at this point, as essentially every mock draft published since Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston has had the Bills landing someone at the position. I’m keeping the trend rolling with Thomas, the best deep-field accelerator in the class. He’d fit perfectly with Josh Allen’s massive arm in this offense. Thomas had 17 receiving touchdowns last season, the most in the FBS.

Projected trade: Washington isn’t done on Day 1

Commanders get: No. 29

Lions get: No. 36 and No. 100

The Commanders got their quarterback at No. 2 in Jayden Daniels, but this team allowed 65 sacks last season, tied for the NFL’s second most. The Commanders have to protect their new franchise QB, and I could see them jumping at the chance to move back into Round 1 for help there. And while the host-city Lions moving out of the first round might draw some jeers from the crowd, extensions for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell on Wednesday already made this week a successful one.

29. Washington Commanders (via mock trade with DET)

Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

Morgan is a capable play-in-space tackle who would fill a priority need in D.C. He allowed just two sacks on 454 pass-blocking snaps in 2023, and he has 37 starts worth of experience.

30. Baltimore Ravens

Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri

Robinson does a little bit of everything and is super versatile. He was a defensive tackle early in his Missouri career before moving into an edge role, finishing with 8.5 sacks in his final season. The Ravens lost Jadeveon Clowney in free agency this offseason, but Robinson would keep this Baltimore pass rush strong.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

Teams have speculated to me that San Francisco could move up to land an offensive tackle, but cornerback is interesting here. It’s perhaps more of a longer-term issue than a shorter-term one, as starters Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir are both scheduled to be free agents after 2024. McKinstry is a silky-smooth coverage player who had 20 pass breakups over the past two seasons.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

The defending champs need to address the receiver room, and this is the draft to do it. Mitchell would add size, speed and reliable hands; he ran a 4.34-second 40 at the combine and dropped just one pass all of last season.

Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com also has the Giants in the QB market:

OK, so here is some explaining for those who don’t follow along, and judging by the past few days that means most of you.

This mock is a predictive mock, not a who-they-should-take mock. It’s just a plain, old predictive mock, one that you can grade for accuracy (and I really don’t give a crap how it works out). This how I think it will go, not how it should go. There’s a difference.

Now back to my mock.

For all our predictive mocks, we start 1-0. That’s because the Chicago Bears will be drafting USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. That’s easy.

It gets a lot tougher.

I have LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels going second to the Washington Commanders, but I shake it up some after that. I have the New York Giants going up from No. 6 to No. 3 to draft North Carolina’s Drake Maye. They make a deal to give up No. 6, a second-rounder this year and next year to the New England Patriots to go get Maye.

The Pats, in return, add much-needed draft capital and then take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy at No. 6, a player they are supposedly enamored with in talking to people around the league. It would be a win-win for both teams, even if I think Maye is better.

The second trade I have in this mock is the Philadelphia Eagles going up to a corner. I have them trading up with the Denver Broncos to the 12th spot to land Alabama corner Terrion Arnold. They would give up their first-round pick — No. 22 — a second this year (No. 50) and fourth in 2025 to make the deal.

Denver would trade back and take Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and add some much-needed draft picks to their books.

So there you have it, the basics of my 2024 final mock draft. Do what you will with it — and I am sure you will scream about it when it’s blown up three picks into it.

1 – CHICAGO (from Carolina)

Caleb Williams QB                                   USC • JR • 6’1″ / 215 LBS

They have been locked in on him from the start. Will he end up being their first true franchise passer since Sid Luckman? It’s been a long time, Chicago.

2 – WASHINGTON

Jayden Daniels QB                                    LSU • SR • 6’4″ / 210 LBS

They have a great opportunity to land their quarterback, no matter which one they take. But I think the right one is Daniels and the word is they agree. He will be electric.

3 – NY GIANTS                                         Mock Trade from New England Patriots

Drake Maye QB                                        NORTH CAROLINA • SOPH • 6’4″ / 230 LBS

The Giants make the bold move to go up and get Maye, beating the Vikings to the punch. Daniel Jones can give you another year and this move might give the current regime a chance to stay on longer — and we know how that matters.

4 – ARIZONA

Marvin Harrison Jr. WR                                   OHIO STATE • JR • 6’4″ / 205 LBS

They had offers for this pick, but in the end I think they stay put and take Harrison. He would give Kyler Murray a true No. 1 receiver.

5 – LA CHARGERS

JC Latham OT                                             ALABAMA • JR • 6’6″ / 360 LBS

I put him here because Jim Harbaugh loves offensive linemen and I think he’s a better fit for what they want to do than Joe Alt, who is a left tackle. Latham is also a better run blocker, which is what Harbaugh loves to do.

6 – NEW ENGLAND                                            Mock Trade from New York Giants

J.J. McCarthy QB                                                MICHIGAN • JR • 6’3″ / 202 LBS

The Patriots move down, add some picks, and still land a quarterback. McCarthy is a guy teams like a lot more than I do. The word around the league before the draft is that the Patriots really like him.

7 – TENNESSEE

Joe Alt OT                                                         NOTRE DAME • JR • 6’7″ / 322 LBS

The Titans end up with their left tackle in this draft. Alt is a big, physical blindside protector for Will Levis. The Titans line would be so improved in 2024.

8 – ATLANTA

Dallas Turner EDGE                                      ALABAMA • JR • 6’4″ / 252 LBS

They need to find and edge player and Turner has the tools to be a top pass rusher. I think his best football is coming on the next level. Their leading returning sacker from last season had six sacks. This would work.

9 – CHICAGO

Malik Nabers WR                                               LSU • JR • 6’0″ / 200 LBS

They would be thrilled to see him fall to this spot. Nabers might be better than Harrison in the long run. This would be a great pick for Williams if it falls this way.

10 – NY JETS

Rome Odunze WR                                            WASHINGTON • JR • 6’3″ / 215 LBS

They could consider offensive tackle or even tight end Brock Bowers here, but I think they take a wide receiver in this spot to amp up the passing. Odunze would be a nice complement to Garrett Wilson for the long run.

11 – MINNESOTA

Michael Penix Jr. QB                                         WASHINGTON • SR • 6’3″ / 213 LBS

The Vikings don’t make the move to get a quarterback and sit here and take Penix. I think this is a move that will work out well for them in the long run.

12 – PHILADELPAHIA                                 Mock Trade from Denver Broncos

Terrion Arnold CB                                         ALABAMA • SOPH • 6’0″ / 196 LBS

The Eagles go up to get the best corner in the draft. They had issues in coverage last year and age is creeping up in a big way at corner for them. Their pass defense has to improve.

13 – LAS VEGAS

Taliese Fuaga OT                                         OREGON STATE • JR • 6’6″ / 334 LBS

The Raiders need help at right tackle and Fuaga could be a plug-and-play guy. He would give them a physical mauler on the right side.

14 – NEW ORLEANS

Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT                                  PENN STATE • JR • 6’6″ / 317 LBS

They have major problems at tackle, so this makes a ton of sense. They get a left tackle who excels in pass protection, which is something they badly need.

15 – INDIANAPOLIS

Brock Bowers TE                                              GEORGIA • JR • 6’4″ / 240 LBS

Taking Bowers would give second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson a nice weapon to work with for the years to come. All young quarterbacks need a crutch and Bowers would be that for Richardson.

16 – SEATTLE

 Byron Murphy II DL                                           TEXAS • JR • 6’1″ / 308 LBS

The Seahawks have to get a nice inside pass rush and Murphy is a lot like Baltimore’s Justin Madubuike, who was the key to the Ravens front. New Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald coordinated that Baltimore defense.

17 – JACKSONVILLE

Quinyon Mitchell CB                                             TOLEDO • JR • 6’0″ / 196 LBS

The Jaguars have issues at corner and Mitchell would give them a guy who can step in and play right away. Tyson Campbell is entering the final year of his contract and Ronald Darby isn’t a kid.

18 – CINCINNATI

Amarius Mims OT                                                GEORGIA • JR • 6’7″ / 340 LBS

They signed Trent Brown to a one-year deal to play right tackle, but Mims would be their guy for the long haul and may actually win the job next season. He doesn’t have a lot of experience, but the talent is there.

19 – LA RAMS

Laiatu Latu EDGE                                             UCLA • SR • 6’5″ / 265 LBS

The Rams need to amp up their outside pass rush, so taking the hometown kid would work. There is talk the Rams could be leaning offense, but with Latu here they would have to take him.

20 – PITTSBURGH

Graham Barton OT                                          DUKE • SR • 6’5″ / 314 LBS

The Steelers have had a storied history when it comes to centers and they now have a hole there. Landing Barton would fill it as he moves inside from tackle.

21 – MIAMI                        

Jared Verse EDGE                                             FLORIDA STATE • JR • 6’4″ / 260 LBS

They have injury issues with their edge players, so getting one here would be a nice pickup. If Verse fell this far, they would likely race the card to the podium.

22 – DENVER                                                        Mock Trade from Philadelphia Eagles

Bo Nix QB                                                                OREGON • SR • 6’2″ / 217 LBS

Broncos move down, add some picks, and take a young quarterback in the Drew Brees mold. Sean Payton won a lot of games with Brees. They have to get a young passer.

22 – MINNESOTA (from Houston)

Johnny Newton DL                                       ILLINOIS • JR • 6’2″ / 295 LBS

The interior of their defense lacks a player who can push the pocket. Newton can be that guy to give Brian Flores a nice inside player.

24 – DALLAS

Troy Fautanu IOL                                           WASHINGTON • JR • 6’4″ / 317 LBS

He can play guard or tackle, which would give them options on how they prefer to play Tyler Smith. If he is here in this spot, it would be a heck of pick.

25 – GREEN BAY

Cooper DeJean CB                                   IOWA • JR • 6’1″ / 207 LBS

They like guys who can be versatile and DeJean is that type of player. The Packers could also consider offensive line here, but I think DeJean makes too much sense.

26 – TAMPA BAY                                          Chop Robinson EDGE

PENN STATE • JR • 6’3″ / 254 LBS

They lack a dynamic edge player, although YaYa Diaby has talent, so why not add to it? Robinson might end up being the best pure edge rusher in this class. They also could move him all around the front seven.

27 – ARIZONA (from Houston)

Tyler Guyton OT                                    OKLAHOMA • JR • 6’7″ / 328 LBS

Getting a starting tackle this late would be a heck of a move. The Cardinals could then move Paris Johnson to the left side and let Guyton play right tackle.

28 – BUFFALO

Brian Thomas Jr. WR                              LSU • JR • 6’4″ / 205 LBS

He is big and can run, which the Bills badly need. They would consider edge or corner here, but Thomas fits a major need and would give Josh Allen a No. 1 receiver.

29 – DETROIT

Jaden Hicks S                                              WASHINGTON STATE • SOPH • 6’3″ / 212 LBS

Hicks is the type of player who can do a lot of things, which is why I think he would be a good fit. They took Brian Branch last year and Hicks could provide more versatility for the back end.

30 – BALTIMORE

Jordan Morgan OT                                ARIZONA • SR • 6’5″ / 325 LBS

They could consider receiver Xavier Worthy here, but in the end I think their line needs more help. Morgan could play right tackle or slide inside to guard.

31 –  SAN FRANCISCO

Darius Robinson EDGE                                 MISSOURI • SR • 6’5″ / 296 LBS

When in doubt, the 49ers like to pick defensive linemen in the first round. Robinson is an impressive looking edge who can slide inside on passing downs in some situations. He looks like a 49ers player.

32 – KANSAS CITY

Kingsley Suamataia OT                                   BYU • SOPH • 6’6″ / 325 LBS

They pass on receiver here — they can get one or two later — to take a tackle who can step in and play on the left side. Tackle was a major issue last year for the Chiefs.

Looking at Prisco’s draft, if the Vikings don’t trade up to get ahead of the Giants for McCarthy and “settle” for Penix at 11, wouldn’t the Raiders try to get ahead of the Vikings?  Las Vegas is said to be very happy with Penix, wouldn’t they want to get to 9 or 10 from 13 to try to take him away from Minnesota?