– – –

The NFL hasn’t lost any revenue yet, but they are proactively cutting their costs as Lockdown Governors continue to target large gatherings in their decrees.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

On Monday, the NFL basked in the afterglow of the stay-at-home draft, where six weeks of stir craziness contributed to record high ratings for a three-day process that entailed ridiculously low expenses. On Wednesday, reality set in.

With the pandemic threatening to delay, shorter, and/or cancel the 2020 season, the NFL has decided to engage in pre-emptive belt tightening. In a memo sent to all league employees on Wednesday, Commissioner Roger Goodell outlined a series of steps aimed at reducing costs in the coming months.

For starters, the league will reduce the pay of all employees making $100,000 or more per year, with a five-percent cut for managers, a seven-percent drop for directors, a 10-percent decrease for vice presidents, a 12-percent reduction for senior vice presidents, and a 15-percent decline for executive vice presidents. (No employee making more than $100,000 will be reduced below $100,000.)

The league also will furlough “individuals in our workforce who are unable to substantially perform their duties from home and/or whose current workload has been significantly reduced.” It’s unclear who this affects, especially as the league enters a portion of the calendar in which workload is significantly reduced for obvious reasons.

And that’s the aspect of this that likely will rub some league employees the wrong way. The business moved forward in the early days and weeks of the pandemic, without hesitation or limitation. The NFL conducted free agency and the draft without missing a beat. And now that the heavy lifting is done, workers who otherwise would be enjoying the most manageable months of the calendar will be getting the heave ho, at least temporarily.

Given that the months of May, June, and July typically don’t entail significant revenue, it’s likely that the league wants to save in anticipate of major losses during football season, whether from the absence of fans or the cancellation of games. Regardless, Wednesday’s developments are the hangover to what was a five-day draft party, one that began on Thursday night and that culminated with Monday media kudos on a job well done.

And so the positivity and optimism have yielded to a different reality, one in which a league that largely had been immune to the pandemic begins bracing for the challenges to come.

GREEN BAY

Brett Favre, who may now have a better relationship with QB AARON RODGERS than we think, has been the veteran QB when a successor is drafted prematurely.

Jason Owens at YahooSports.com:

Brett Favre has been here before.

And he has some candid thoughts about the Green Bay Packers using a first-round draft pick on quarterback Jordan Love. He doesn’t fault Love. But he thinks the Packers did wrong by Aaron Rodgers and expects that there will be consequences.

Like many, Favre was taken aback by the Packers trading up in the first round to select a quarterback.

“I was very surprised,” Favre told SirusXM NFL Radio. “Actually I was more surprised than when Aaron was drafted in my situation way back when.

“They were several plays away from the Super Bowl. … To me, it sends a message to Aaron. ‘We’re preparing for our future first and deal with our present after.’”

The Packers, who fell one win short of playing in the Super Bowl last season are in desperate need of wide receiver help. Last week’s draft was one of the deepest at the position in league history with standouts like Clemson’s Tee Higgins and USC’s Michael Pittman Jr. still on the board when the Packers selected.

Instead they chose a backup quarterback, to the dismay of most.

“I don’t know what that immediate need would have been,” Favre continued. “But I would think maybe another receiver, someone who can come and start right away with the assumption it can get us to the Super Bowl.”

Favre: Packers ‘sent disrespect message’ to Rodgers

Favre was similarly candid on the “Rich Eisen Show” and said that the Packers sent the wrong message to their franchise quarterback with two MVPs and a Super Bowl ring.

“Green Bay’s one of [the teams] that should be playing for now,” Favre told Eisen. “They don’t draft any weapons, not just in the first round, but any weapons that can help immediately to my knowledge. And that just sends a disrespect message to Aaron Rodgers.”

The Packers drafted two offensive skill position players — second-round running back A.J. Dillon and third-round tight end Josiah Deguara.

With Aaron Jones and his 1,500 scrimmage yards and 19 total touchdowns from last season leading the Packers backfield, the selection of Dillon was almost as equally baffling as the Love pick. Neither Dillon nor Deguara is going to fill the wideout void across from Davante Adams in the Packers offense.

Favre, of course, was in Rodgers’ position when the Packers drafted Rodgers as his successor in 2005. Favre played three more seasons in Green Bay before giving way to Rodgers and finishing his career with the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.

Despite the potential for animosity, Favre told Eisen that “Aaron and I get along great.” He said he spoke with Rodgers after the draft and that he was “surprised” by the selection of Love.

He made clear that he wasn’t speaking for Rodgers when he said this, but he told Eisen he believes that the Love selection will cause irreparable damage to Rodgers’ relationship with the team and result in Rodgers finishing his career somewhere else.

“I think they burned a bridge that’s gonna be hard to overcome,” Favre told Eisen. “At some point, I think it will rear its ugly head. …

“I think Aaron will finish somewhere else. That’s my gut. I guarantee you this. It’s got the wheel’s turning in Aaron’s mind. If that’s the case, then that means there’s a chip on his shoulder toward the organization that otherwise was not there.”

In the meantime, he doesn’t expect Rodgers to groom his potential replacement.

“It’s not his job to mentor Jordan Love,” Favre said. “This discussion went on when I left Green Bay. It’s not the head guy’s job to mentor the next guy. That guy is ultimately there to take your spot.”

Like many, Favre was taken aback by the Packers trading up in the first round to select a quarterback.

“I was very surprised,” Favre told SirusXM NFL Radio. “Actually I was more surprised than when Aaron was drafted in my situation way back when.

“They were several plays away from the Super Bowl. … To me, it sends a message to Aaron. ‘We’re preparing for our future first and deal with our present after.’”

The Packers, who fell one win short of playing in the Super Bowl last season are in desperate need of wide receiver help. Last week’s draft was one of the deepest at the position in league history with standouts like Clemson’s Tee Higgins and USC’s Michael Pittman Jr. still on the board when the Packers selected.

Instead they chose a backup quarterback, to the dismay of most.

“I don’t know what that immediate need would have been,” Favre continued. “But I would think maybe another receiver, someone who can come and start right away with the assumption it can get us to the Super Bowl.”

– – –

Judy Bautista of NFL.com leads a long discussion of the subject among four scribes, one of whom is Michael Silver who shares Cal ties with Rodgers:

So, what on earth are the Packers doing, other than recreating their own past and planning for their future?

Head coach Matt LaFleur and general manager Brian Gutekunst have said all the right things so far about wanting Rodgers there until he decides to stop playing. But just as when the Packers selected Rodgers while Brett Favre was still years from being done, this at last starts to raise the question of how much longer Rodgers will be the Packers’ quarterback.

Attention camera operators: We’re going to need a lot of cutaway shots of the interactions between Love and Rodgers, because even though Love said Rodgers reached out to him after he was picked, we’re going to be obsessing over their relationship. Sportswriters should probably start making hotel reservations for Green Bay whenever training camp opens. (Shout out to Green Bay Residence Inn, where I spent many a night during the extended Brett Favre-Packers split.)

No doubt, we will all write thousands of words about Rodgers and Love in the seasons to come, but let’s get our initial thoughts on the table now. Did the Packers do the right thing in passing up other immediate needs to take Love?

Michael Silver: Like everyone else in the NFL, I worked from home Thursday night, spending much of my night getting virtual access to Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell’s makeshift draft room — thanks to the Houseparty app and his very patient wife, Joelle.

Late in Round 1, I took a break and spent a few minutes at the dinner table with my wife and kids. It was then that the Packers traded up and drafted Love, creating a great deal of commotion in my household.

Because my wife and I are Cal grads who groomed our three children to be blue-and-gold cult worshippers (OK, one of us did), there was a ripple effect: When Rodgers got drafted in 2005, my sons (who were then 6 and 2) became Packers fans, and now their older sister (herself a Cal grad) and mother have been coopted into Cheesehead loyalty.

Suffice it to say that the decision to pick a quarterback in the first round was not greeted warmly. My wife was particularly perplexed. Granted, her understanding of the subtleties of team-building may be somewhat lacking, but she does have a PhD in clinical psychology, and she began breaking down the impact the move might have on the locker room and its most important resident.

My sons were mostly aghast at the opportunity cost: By trading up to get Rodgers, the Packers missed out on the chance to add a playmaker on offense, or an enticing defender like linebacker Patrick Queen.

“Why are they doing this?” my wife asked. “Call Matt LaFleur.”

The next morning, I did — and wrote about it, simultaneously serving my employer while crossing an item off my honey-do list. What’s my draft grade?

Obviously, I don’t have all the answers, but here are some initial thoughts as to what this all means:

Rodgers, even if he’s far from thrilled (and the fact that the Packers didn’t take a single wideout in this receiver-rich draft likely added to his displeasure), will be self-aware enough to conceal it. He won’t feel threatened by Love in the short-term, and as long as his young backup isn’t abrasive or entitled — word is, the former Utah State QB is far from it — they’ll get along fine.

If the Packers win games and Rodgers plays well and isn’t banged up or injured, this won’t be a thing for awhile. Of course, this is football, and he’s 36, and those are big ifs. But I know what kind of a competitor Rodgers is, and I believe there’s a strong chance he’ll channel these emotions into something special.

The key to all of this is how he and LaFleur do in Year 2 together, in the wake of a first season that went better than most could have reasonably expected. If they can continue to adjust to one another, both schematically and interpersonally, the 2020 Packers can be really, really good, and Love will be an afterthought, for the moment.

Then again, any time there’s an opening — a bad half, sore calf, two-game losing streak, or weird, over-scrutinized sideline interaction — LaFleur is going to have to answer questions about the succession plan, and that puts him in an uncomfortable position, especially given that Gutekunst is the guy who calls the shots on draft night. And whatever answers he gives, suffice it to say that my wife won’t be the only one psychoanalyzing the situation.

Jeffri Chadiha: I don’t have the ties to Cal — or as intense of a personal story to tell about watching this play out — but my jaw didn’t drop like others around the country. I get the pick, and it’s right for this reason: Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to be in Green Bay forever. If LaFleur and Gutekunst really loved Love that much, then they should’ve fully committed and taken their man. I recall the Kansas City Chiefs trading up to take a certain high-risk, high-reward pick in the 2017 draft and then letting him sit for a year behind Alex Smith. As great as Patrick Mahomes is today, there were plenty of folks who forget how valuable it was for him to develop at a pace that truly benefited him.

And yes — I understand that Rodgers is immensely better than Smith, and that it’s hard to see Love turning into Mahomes. The point is that the Packers had to draft a successor at some point. Would this feel any more shocking if it happened next year? If anything, it gives Green Bay a couple years to allow Love to learn behind Rodgers, while Rodgers continues to play at a high level. If that happens, you’re talking about an organization having to think about parting with a quarterback closing in on 40 years old.

Keep in mind — it’s very likely that LaFleur and Gutekunst wanted to have their own hire moving forward. These are both young, smart guys who surely understand the politics that come with easing a future Hall of Fame quarterback out of town. And even though they could’ve drafted a receiver or two, there’s no guarantee in this climate that a rookie is going to have an immediate impact. Something called COVID-19 has impacted offseason workouts severely, so much so that I can’t see many first-year players making an easy transition.

Jim Trotter: I’m with you, Jeffri. The Packers absolutely did the right thing. We all know the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, so if you have a chance to acquire a prospect who you believe has elite talent and will be a franchise player — while locking him into a rookie contract for five years — you make the call and select him, even if Rodgers is on the roster.

That said, there’s no justifying what the Packers did thereafter. Starving for perimeter help on offense — they had only one wide receiver with more than 35 catches last season — they did not use any of their eight remaining picks in a receiver-rich draft on a wideout. Worse, they used their second-round pick on a running back despite the presence of Aaron Jones, who rushed for 1,084 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. They also used their third-round pick on a “sleeper” tight end.

Those are curious moves for a team that fell one game short of the Super Bowl last season. Nothing is guaranteed, but it seems plausible that a couple of impact players at positions of need could have helped in their quest to take the next step this year. Also, Rodgers is 36 with a contract that expires after the 2023 season. What was the point of signing him to a $134 million extension two years ago if they weren’t going to give him the ammunition to win now? The fact that the Packers have not drafted anyone from the skill positions in the first round since taking Rodgers in 2005 is borderline criminal.

I thought the culture had changed last year when Gutekunst broke with the longstanding tradition of predecessor Ted Thompson and took a deep dive into free agency to upgrade the roster. Thompson was allergic to spending big money on outsiders, preferring to build through the draft. But that philosophy brought only one championship to Titletown, making me wonder if Thompson’s stubbornness had wasted the prime years of Rodgers’ career.

Gutekunst looked to be cut from a different cloth a year ago when his free spending on defense, notably for linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, helped the Packers record their first winning season in three years and advance to the NFC Championship Game. But last weekend’s draft makes me believe the culture has not shifted as dramatically as I first thought.

Sadly, I fear we will be left to debate an uncomfortable topic when Rodgers’ tenure in Green Bay is up: Has any organization ever wasted Hall of Fame QB talent as badly as the Packers?

Battista: That’s the part that gets me, too, Jim. Not that the Packers took Love — the great Ron Wolf believed you took a quarterback every year, after all. It’s that in a historically deep wide receiver class, they didn’t take one with any of their other picks, either. That feels negligent.

I think so much of the public resistance to the drafting of Love is rooted in everybody’s projection that the poisoned dynamic between Favre and Rodgers is about to be repeated by Rodgers and Love. Rodgers’ initial phone call would suggest that even if he does not actively mentor Love — and remember, Eli Manning said his job was not to mentor Daniel Jones last year, so why should Rodgers feel differently? — he is also not going to be outwardly hostile to him. Nobody thinks Love is ready to play right now anyway. Let him sit for a while, learn by watching one of the all-time greats, and then you have a very nice decision to make when Rodgers approaches the end of his contract, or a nice safety net if Rodgers gets hurt at any point along the way.

But the best teams plan for the future while also doing their best to win right now (see: Belichick drafting Jimmy Garoppolo when Tom Brady was, yes, 36 years old), and that is where the Packers are failing Rodgers. I just don’t understand why they haven’t gotten more help this offseason, particularly after seeing the leap the team took with the new marriage of LaFleur and Rodgers last season. Pray for Davante Adams’ good health, everybody. The Packers’ passing game was 17th in yards last season when Adams played 12 games.

The question Jim raises is a valid one. If Drew Brees retires after this season with just one Super Bowl, we’ll at least know there were some very bizarre circumstances that contributed to it. Not the case if Rodgers never wins a second Super Bowl, and you can’t blame him if, with that thought in mind, he is chilly to the brain trust even if he embraces Love.

Silver: Here’s one possible byproduct of this move: If navigated correctly, it might allow the coaches and Rodgers to form a sort of ‘us against management’ alliance, whether or not there’s an actual philosophical gulf.

As long as Rodgers feels supported by LaFleur and his assistants (chiefly offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy), which I believe he will, he may feel empowered to let it rip and make Gutekunst’s reality more complicated. And deep inside, the GM has to know that this could be a good thing. Even if he and LaFleur are in lockstep on most matters, it behooves Gutekunst to play the heavy here — to be The Guy Trying To Replace Aaron Rodgers.

That frees up LaFleur and his assistants to align with Rodgers and reinforce the fact that they’ve got his back, even if adversity hits.

In a weird way, for the first time in a long time, Rodgers may feel like he has less pressure on him.

Chadiha: I don’t know if this is so much about pressure on Rodgers as it as about leverage and positioning for management. I was told that Rodgers had that entire organization in a death grip when he was heading into his contract negotiations following the 2017 season. That was the year when he missed nine games because of a broken collarbone. From what I was told — and this came from someone inside the Packers front office — his absence resulted in a huge hit on TV ratings, merchandise sales, attendance, you name it. Rodgers was the whole show, and Green Bay management knew that gave him a huge advantage when he was looking for that four-year, $134 million extension he eventually received.

I bring all this up because we know how much people covet control in pro football. Everyone wants it — from the players to the coaches to the general managers. As great as Rodgers has been, I suspect the Packers were looking far down the road to ensure they controlled the cards when it came time to transition to another quarterback. We all remember how toxic that situation was when Favre didn’t want to leave. I don’t see Rodgers creating that kind of problem, but this move certainly gives Gutekunst and LaFleur more ammunition if this ends in an ugly divorce.

By the way, I totally understand the viewpoint that the Packers could’ve drafted a receiver to help them. However, most of the top prospects were gone by the time the 62nd overall selection (the one used on AJ Dillon) rolled around. Only three wideouts were drafted between that second-round spot and Green Bay’s third-round pick. I actually liked Devin Duvernay of Texas, who went to the Baltimore Ravens two picks before the Packers’ selection in the third, but I also don’t know how he graded on Green Bay’s draft board.

I know I sound like an apologist on that front. But I also am swayed by recent history. The New England Patriots kept Tom Brady until he was 42, and now they’re looking at a quarterback room that includes Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer. They’re likely to have a rocky road on offense unless they acquire another veteran quarterback. The Packers can at least believe, for now, that they have a better option in place once their star signal-caller moves on (and I already can see Raiders head coach Jon Gruden grinning at the idea of making a play for Rodgers once that day comes).

Trotter: The Packers had better hope things go more smoothly on the field this year than they did the last time they were in this situation, in 2005, when they drafted Rodgers just as the aging Brett Favre was seeking to add weapons before the sand expired from his hour glass. After five consecutive winning seasons leading up to the 2005 draft, Green Bay suffered back-to-back non-winning seasons, with Favre posting one of his worst seasons in 2005, tossing a career-high 29 interceptions and only 20 touchdowns, which matched a 12-year low.

Battista: I’m going to trust that won’t happen, and David Bakhtiari knew exactly what he was talking about during the Draft-A-Thon when he said, “Look out! Aaron is about to be on fire.” That would make this draft a big Packers win after all.

– – –

And here is a long, long take on the subject from Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com (perhaps we will edit):

How on earth could the Packers draft a quarterback in the first round when Aaron Rodgers desperately needs receiving help? While we won’t know whether the decision to trade up four spots to No. 26 to draft Utah State’s Jordan Love was the right one for several years, the arguments I’ve seen surrounding their decision don’t hold up under much scrutiny. At the very least, they’re slightly off. Let me start with the most obvious one:

Green Bay is not one receiver away from winning a Super Bowl.

I know it’s tempting for Packers fans to look at what happened in 2019 and think they’re a break or two away from a title. The Packers went 13-3 in coach Matt LaFleur’s first season with the team and made it to the NFC Championship Game. They have every right to expect to be in the mix again this season, given that they’ll return just about every key player from last year’s team. We all know that Rodgers is capable of just about anything if the Packers get into the playoffs.

All of those facts about 2019 are true, but upon closer inspection, it’s tough to expect Green Bay to win with the same formula in 2020. I write about this every year over the summer when I look at the teams that are most likely to improve or decline, and I’ll get to that as we get closer to the NFL season, but this team is arguably the league’s most likely to decline next season.

Start with that 13-3 record. The Packers outscored their opponents by a total of 63 points. We can use their Pythagorean expectation to estimate that a team with that sort of point differential typically wins about 9.7 games, and we can use history to find that the vast majority of teams with that sort of difference between their actual win total and expected win total almost always decline. By that measure alone, we would expect the Packers to drop off to about 10-6 in 2020.

By DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), the Packers were the 10th-best team in football, alongside the Eagles and Rams and behind the Cowboys. They outperformed their point differential and DVOA because they went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer and had two additional wins by eight points.

Rodgers was 34-34-1 in starts decided by seven points or fewer before the 2019 season began. Anything is possible, but the vast majority of teams that have such a lopsided record in one-score games don’t keep that up the following season. Teams that won five more one-score games than they lost in a given year since 1989 were 92-114 the following season, including last season’s Rams, who went from 6-1 in one-score games in 2018 to 3-3 last season.

The Packers also benefited from having a healthy Rodgers for all 16 games, and that can never be guaranteed. (Adding Love is quietly an advantage in the short term if Rodgers gets injured again, although they didn’t need to use a first-round pick to find a viable backup quarterback.) Opposing offenses were able to start their Week 1 quarterbacks 11 times against Green Bay last season, with the Packers also facing a pair of rookies and three injury replacements. Most notably, they went up against Matt Moore as opposed to Patrick Mahomes in their 31-24 win over the Chiefs. Narrow victories over the Chiefs, Lions and Panthers might have gone differently if those teams had been able to use their typical starting quarterback.

Green Bay was also incredibly healthy on defense after being forced to play defensive backs off the street because of injuries in 2018. While possible starting linebacker Oren Burks tore a pectoral muscle in the preseason, its 11 starters on defense heading into the season missed a total of four games all campaign. Darnell Savage missed two games, Kevin King was out for one and B.J. Goodson missed one after stepping in for Burks.

The Packers dominated the NFC North in a way that’s also unlikely to keep happening. They went 6-0 in the division for the first time since 2011. There have been 21 prior cases of a team going 6-0 inside its division since the league went to its current structure in 2002, and just one of those teams — the 2013 Colts — repeated the feat the following season. The other 21 teams won an average of 3.3 divisional games the following season.

When Caesars Sportsbook posted its over/under totals for the 2020 season before the draft, it seemed shocking to some that the Packers were posted at just 8.5 wins, 4.5 wins below their 2020 record. I suspect the factors above might have contributed to what seemed like a pessimistic expectation. Anything can happen, but the most realistic expectation for this team would be to take a step backward and finish somewhere in the 9-7 range.

Of course, if we’re working off the idea that the 2020 Packers aren’t likely to be as good as they were in 2019, you could make an even stronger argument that they needed to draft somebody who was more likely to impact the team in 2020 than a quarterback prospect. My response there is to say …

The Packers needed another defensive piece more than they needed a weapon for Rodgers.

Offense was not the problem for the Packers last season. While they looked better on defense by raw totals, they finished the season eighth in offensive DVOA and 15th in defensive DVOA. Mike Pettine’s defense most notably finished 23rd in run defense DVOA, a weakness that was exploited to no end when the 49ers ran for 285 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC title game. (Another argument against the “we’re one game away” idea is the fact that the Packers were never in either of their games against the 49ers.)

Green Bay was able to succeed on defense because it forced the league’s third-highest interception rate and was the fourth-best defense at holding teams to field goals in the red zone. Neither of those elements of the game are particularly stable from year to year. To keep things close to home, the 2018-19 Bears are a good example of a defense that thrived in those categories, but they fell from first to 26th in interception rate and fifth to 13th in red zone touchdown rate last season.

As I mentioned earlier, this defense is also all but guaranteed to face more injuries in 2020. This offseason, they lost linebackers Blake Martinez and Kyler Fackrell while adding only oft-injured former Browns starter Christian Kirksey to replace them. I understand there are Packers fans who might see moving on from Martinez as addition by subtraction, and this defense has four first-rounders on the books from their prior four drafts, but defense is still the problem dragging down the team. Drafting linebacker Patrick Queen could have made the most significant impact if the Packers wanted to improve their 2020 team.

I agree with the general sentiment that the Packers haven’t done enough to surround Rodgers with talent over the course of his career. The stat floating around noting how he has thrown just one touchdown pass to a first-round pick over the course of his career is mind-blowing.

After former second-round pick Davante Adams, it’s impossible to argue that Rodgers has much in the way of highly touted receivers with whom to work. His top two wideouts after Adams were undrafted free agent Allen Lazard and former fifth-round pick Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Packers used a third-round pick last year on tight end Jace Sternberger, but receiver has not been a position of priority in Green Bay going on a decade now. Their last significant selection before Adams was Randall Cobb, who was taken with the last pick of the second round in 2011.

That’s indisputable, but what I also would say is …

While Love is a risky prospect, so are wide receivers in that range of the draft.

If the comparison was between Love and a wideout who was absolutely, positively guaranteed to make an immediate impact over the next two seasons, the choice would be easy. Pick the wide receiver. As you can probably guess, though, it’s not that simple. Take a look at the list of receivers who were drafted between the 21st and 31st selections between 2009 and 2018. I’ll include the receiving yards they racked up over their first two pro seasons:

First-Round WRs Don’t Always Pan Out

Here are the wide receivers drafted between pick Nos. 21 and 31 from 2009 to 2018:

ROOKIE

YEAR   RECEIVER       TEAM          YARDS

2018     D.J. Moore        CAR               1,963

2018     Calvin Ridley     ATL               1,687

2016     Josh Doctson    WSH                568

2016     Will Fuller          HOU              1,058

2016     Laquon Treadwell MIN               215

2015     Phillip Dorsett    IND                  753

2015     Breshad Perriman BAL             499

2014     Kelvin Benjamin CAR           1,949

2013     DeAndre Hopkins HOU         2,012

2013     Cordarrelle PattersonMIN       853

2012     A.J. Jenkins      SF                130

2011     Jonathan BaldwiN KC             579

2010     Dez Bryant DAL                   1,489

2010     Demaryius Thomas DEN       834

2009     Kenny BrittTEN                   1,476

2009     Percy Harvin MIN               1,658

2009     Hakeem Nicks NYG            1,842

It’s a huge swath of talent with totally different careers, many of which are still in progress. The average production from these wideouts over their first two seasons, when they would be expected to have an immediate impact for the Packers, is 1,151 yards, or slightly more than what Valdes-Scantling (1,033 receiving yards) has racked up over his first two campaigns. A rookie wideout with Rodgers could expect to be in better shape than, say, Demaryius Thomas was with Tim Tebow, but you get the idea here: Adding a wide receiver at the bottom of the first round isn’t a guarantee that the Packers would have upgraded on Valdes-Scantling or Lazard.

Doing something that seems like it’s going to help Rodgers doesn’t guarantee it’ll actually move the needle. How many Packers fans were in favor two years ago when general manager Brian Gutekunst added a weapon for Rodgers by signing Jimmy Graham to a three-year, $30 million contract? It was easy to envision Rodgers and Graham working in lockstep for red zone touchdowns, but the tight end scored just five times and averaged just under 34 receiving yards per game during his time in Green Bay.

When you consider the relative positional scarcity of quarterbacks and wide receivers, the Packers had a far better chance of finding a useful receiver outside of the first round than they did of finding their quarterback of the future, especially given the depth in this draft. And while we know a little more now than we did then, it’s also important to make the case that …

The first-round pick wasn’t the Packers’ only chance at improving at receiver.

The Packers’ decision to draft running back AJ Dillon with their second-round pick (No. 62) was far more curious to me than taking Love in the first round. If you evaluate Love and think he’s a franchise quarterback, the value in drafting a quarterback is clear. There are only so many of those guys available, and if you have a chance to take one and can see a future where you don’t have one, you take him.

A running back, though? I get that the Packers might not want to sign Aaron Jones to an extension, but running back is the position you can fill with a mid-round pick. Jones himself was a fifth-round selection. Dillon’s a powerful back, but he carried the ball 845 times at Boston College and caught a total of just 21 passes. In the modern NFL, there’s a near-endless supply of backs who are useful zone runners but don’t offer much as a receiver. Love offers the possibility of enormous upside; Dillon can’t really do that as a second-round running back given his skill set.

The Packers already have added one veteran wide receiver to the mix. I understand fans aren’t necessarily excited about Devin Funchess, who missed the final 15 games of 2019 with a collarbone injury, but he averaged 558 receiving yards per season during his time with Carolina, which is right in line with what those first-round picks averaged during their opening two seasons. It’s not out of the question that Funchess outproduces rookies Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman Jr., who were the first wideouts off the board after the Packers chose Love.

While I would question the Packers not selecting a single wideout during the entire draft, it’s not out of the question that they’ll be able to add a veteran receiver over the next few months. Those receivers get cut every year over the summer and through training camp, and some of them make an impact in their new places. James Jones’ 2015 season with the Packers comes to mind.

I mentioned him in my piece on wideouts likely to be cut or traded in the coming months, but Kenny Stills is an obvious candidate for the Packers. He is due $8 million in 2020, which wouldn’t typically be tenable for a fourth wideout in Houston. It’s also not difficult to imagine scenarios in which veterans like A.J. Green, Tyrell Williams, Curtis Samuel and Dante Pettis come available via trade, and the Packers should pursue them if they do. If they take advantage of one of those opportunities — or if someone else totally unexpected comes available — the decision to pass on a wideout in Round 1 won’t be as damaging to their short-term chances.

One more reason Green Bay fans are upset about passing on a wide receiver is that they’re not confident about Love. I have to admit that I’m also skeptical of Love, given that he wasn’t particularly good in the Mountain West Conference, where he nearly threw as many touchdowns (20) as interceptions (17) in 2019.

– – –

As an aside, don’t buy the arguments that Rodgers is about to leave or get traded. It’s not financially feasible. The Packers would owe $51.1 million in dead money if they moved on from him this year and $31.6 million if they did so in 2021. They could spread that across two years if they make Rodgers a post-June 1 release after this season, but that would take an Antonio Brown-sized blowup with the organization. The most likely time frame would be 2022, when cutting or trading him would cost $17.2 million in dead money. With the cap possibly hitting $250 million that year, the Packers could move on from him without feeling too much of a pinch.

And one final question: Are we sure adding Love is going to be a negative thing for Rodgers? All I’ve seen and heard is the perception that drafting Love is going to make Rodgers angry. Isn’t there a chance it lights a fire under Rodgers, too? I have no doubt that he wants badly to win and didn’t need another quarterback to convince him as much, but this is the first time in a decade that the Packers have exhibited any doubt in his ability to be their quarterback for years to come. Rodgers was motivated by skepticism when he entered the league; he might also be motivated by skepticism as he approaches the end of his career, too.

TAMPA BAY

ESPN brings us up-to-date on the controversy regarding the timing of the arrival of TE ROB GRONKOWSKI’s Tampa Bay playbook (which is now just a proprietary tablet):

Rob Gronkowski isn’t joking around this time. He has his Tampa Bay Buccaneers playbook and said it arrived after last week’s trade from the New England Patriots.

That’s according to a social media post Wednesday from the star tight end, who went on Twitter to clarify that a comment he made over the weekend suggesting that he had received the playbook before the trade was in jest.

“This is seriously a story?” Gronkowski wrote. “LOL.”

On Saturday night, Gronkowski was part of a Bud Light-sponsored draft after-party, during which one of the guests, ESPN’s Sage Steele, spoke about how Joe Burrow, the No. 1 overall selection by the Bengals, had been working with Cincinnati’s playbook weeks before the team officially made its selection.

Gronkowski then jumped in and said, “I was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ playbook four weeks ago, and I wasn’t even on the team.”

That comment took on a life of its own when some outlets questioned if Gronkowski was telling the truth and, if so, whether it violated league rules. The Pats-Bucs trade wasn’t official until April 21.

But Gronkowski said Wednesday that he received his team-issued Microsoft Surface tablet earlier in the day, and he posted a picture of himself holding it.

Never one to stay serious for too long, Gronkowski then followed with a joke.

“It’s still in the package and hoping it is all pictures and drawings,” he wrote. “I’m pumped to open it one day hopefully soon and follow the arrows to learn where to run to. Gronk run Gronk catch ball. No playbook needed. Hehe.”

Curmudgeon Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is unimpressed:

Watch his original comments, starting at about 57 minutes of the Bud Light Seltzer “Drafterparty.” After Steele pointed out that Joe Burrow has been studying the Bengals’ playbook for weeks, Gronk said he’s had the Buccaneers playbook for four weeks.

That’s a funny joke. That’s like Carrot Top-level funny.

If Gronk meant what he said, he potentially led the Buccaneers right into a tampering charge by admitting that he had the Tampa Bay playbook while still technically under contract with New England. So he had to say it was a joke, even if it wasn’t. (Then again, here’s Gronk at the roast of David Ortiz. Maybe Gronk genuinely thought it was a joke.)

And if those are the kinds of side-splitting one-liners he’ll be rattling off if he continues to co-host online parties despite ending his football retirement, he needs to display the kind of discretion that was expected of him when he found a way to talk without ever saying anything during nine seasons as a Stepford Patriot.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Did the Rams stiff LB CLAY MATTHEWS on his way out the door?  He thinks so.  Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com on a dispute that also involves RB TODD GURLEY.

Linebacker Clay Matthews is filing a grievance against the Los Angeles Rams over $2 million in unpaid guarantees, sources told ESPN.

Former Rams Matthews and running back Todd Gurley — who were released by the team on March 19 — have publicly vented their frustrations over non-payments, and Matthews is doing something about it by submitting his case to the National Football League Players Association, which will officially file the grievance on his behalf.

Matthews’ two-year deal with the Rams included $5.5 million in guarantees, and he is still owed a $2 million roster bonus.

Matthews is a free agent, and because his $2 million offsets based on a deal with a new team, the Rams could be waiting to see where Matthews signs before paying him. Matthews, 33, believes he is due the money now.

A source involved said the Rams could argue that language in the contracts of Gurley and Matthews allows a short-term deferral of payment for tax purposes.

It’s unclear if Gurley is planning a grievance. The Rams owe Gurley a $7.55 million roster bonus, but offset language can reduce that payment by $2.5 million. Gurley agreed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons shortly after the Rams released him. Gurley must pass a physical exam to finalize the deal.

“They’re definitely owed money. That money is guaranteed. We’re going to pay them,” Rams general manager Les Snead told NFL Network before the NFL draft. “There’s some language in the contract of exactly when you pay them, and that’s what we’re adhering by. What I do know is both Clay and Todd earned that money, and they’re going to get that money.”

BALTIMORE

Backfield by committee for the stacked Ravens says GM Eric DeCosta.  Nick Shook ofNFL.com:

A surplus of talent is never a bad thing to have in any arena of life.

But with any surplus comes a lack of usage of all available resources, simply because it isn’t needed. Take the Ravens’ running back room, which now goes four deep after the selection of Ohio State star J.K. Dobbins in last weekend’s draft.

The choice came as a surprise, considering the Ravens already have Pro Bowler Mark Ingram, Justice Hill and Gus Edwards in their backfield. The Ravens aren’t worried about having too much talent — coming off a 14-2 season, that’s precisely what they want — and are instead offering what might be an unorthodox, if not unrealistic idea for a solution.

“I would equate it to us last year having the tight ends that we had — the three tight ends,” Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta told the team’s official site. “(Offensive coordinator) Greg (Roman) did an amazing job of taking those tight ends and really creating something special that made us very tough for defenses to play. And now we’ve got the four running backs and they all do different things well. It just makes us, I think, a really, really well-rounded team that’s tough to defend.”

Mark Andrews was undoubtedly the face of the TE position in Baltimore last year, catching 64 passes for 852 yards and 10 touchdowns in 15 games. In fact, he led all pass catchers in both yards and receiving. Surprisingly, a look down the tight end list reveals that yes, the Ravens really did use all three tight ends.

Nick Boyle caught 31 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns, while former first-round pick Hayden Hurst caught 30 passes for 349 yards.

Baltimore traded away one of those tight ends after the 2019 season.

This is where we enter the bartering phase of the surplus. There’s no better way to improve your team than by offering some of your abundance to address a deficiency elsewhere. And this couldn’t have worked out better for this example.

Baltimore’s trade, which sent Hurst to Atlanta, netted the Ravens an extra second-round pick in the 2020 draft. With that pick, Baltimore selected Dobbins.

Dobbins provides burst, power and a relentless motor that seems to fit perfectly in Roman’s offense, which led the NFL in rushing last season by a wide margin. He’s also bringing a hefty amount of miles traveled in his prolific career at Ohio State, where he rushed 725 times for 4,540 yards and 38 touchdowns. Dobbins set the freshman rushing record at Ohio State in 2017, struggled to cross 1,000 yards in 2018 and then exploded for 2,049 for the nation’s No. 2 team entering the College Football Playoff. Their run ended prematurely, and Dobbins wasn’t able to finish his final game in scarlet and gray, suffering an ankle injury that knocked him out of the Buckeyes’ Fiesta Bowl loss to Clemson.

He’s seen a lot. He won’t have to run as much in Baltimore — at least not in 2020.

Of course, this very well could be a move made in preparation for Ingram’s departure. The running back’s three-year, $15 million deal includes a potential out after 2020, when his dead cap number drops from $3.16 million to $1.3 million and his actual cap hit jumps by $1 million. Dobbins is a similar back who is talented enough to replace Ingram with little difference in production.

“We were ecstatic to get J.K.,” DeCosta said. “He was by far — by far — the highest-rated guy that we had on the board. We kind of felt like he fell out of the sky right to us, the type of team that we are to get a running back like that.

It might just be best for business at that point — early 2021 — to move on from Ingram. But for now, Baltimore will be loaded at running back, and that’s before we even include the running capabilities of quarterback Lamar Jackson — you know, last year’s MVP and the man who broke Michael Vick’s rushing/passing yard record in 2019.

With each rush, the Ravens will be able to send out a different back. Hill brings a top-end burst of speed that will make onlookers question what they just saw, while Edwards can serve as a taller strider who runs with power.

“These guys can all do different things, they should be fresh for four quarters,” DeCosta said. “I think we protect ourselves in case of injuries or things like that. It fortifies us, it makes us stronger, and it gives us a guy with home run potential.”

Ingram’s injury hurt Baltimore in the postseason, leading to an upset loss at home to the Titans. Hedging against such an outcome is wise. However, it’s just not common to see a team enter a Sunday with four running backs active. Perhaps Baltimore moves one of these runners — we’d bank on it being Edwards — in order to address a need elsewhere.

Right now, the reigning AFC North champions aren’t showing many deficiencies anywhere.

CINCINNATI

And….QB ANDY DALTON is a free agent.  Let the speculation begin, starting with the Jaguars.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

A week after selecting the face of their future, the Bengals are bidding adieu to their past.

Cincinnati is releasing quarterback Andy Dalton per his wishes, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported.

The release came as a result of a lack of a trade market for the 32-year-old Dalton, according to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

How Dalton’s market takes shape will be interesting, and likely not very deep because of the point in the offseason calendar at which his release occurred. Rapoport offered an interesting potential destination: Jacksonville.

@RapSheet

With no trade market, the #Bengals move on. The #Jaguars and former head coach Jay Gruden as OC are a spot that would make sense.

Gruden and Dalton worked together in Cincinnati from 2011-2013 during the brightest days of his time with the Bengals, so a reunion with a team that could use a veteran presence alongside young signal-caller Gardner Minshew makes plenty of sense. There’s also been considerable thought given to New England’s current quarterback situation, which includes a veteran and a youngster in Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham, but could benefit even more from adding Dalton.

“This year’s different, with no offseason, and I understand that,” Dalton told NFL Network’s Michael Silver earlier in April. “I obviously feel I bring value to a team, not only because of my abilities, but because of everything I’ve learned and experienced.

“It’s easy to stress out about your situation, to say, ‘What if it’s this team or that team?’ But there’s no reason to try to What If? yourself to death. I’m just going to sit back and let this happen. My wife and I were talking (Wednesday) night, and we have such a peace about everything. We’re gonna be where God wants us to be, and it’s gonna work out exactly how it’s supposed to.”

TENNESSEE

The Titans have added veteran CB JOHNATHAN JOSEPH.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Joseph told Josina Anderson of ESPN that he has agreed to a contract with the Titans. Joseph became a free agent in March after playing out his contract with the Texans.

Joseph spent the last nine seasons in Houston and was a fixture in the starting lineup for almost all of that time. He had 51 tackles and an interception during his final season with the team.

Joseph opened his career with five seasons in Cincinnati, so he brings a lot of experience with him to Tennessee. He joins a cornerback group that includes Adoree’ Jackson, Malcolm Butler, Tye Smith and a pair of 2020 draft picks. The Titans picked up Kristian Fulton in the second round and Chris Jackson in the seventh round.

THIS AND THAT

COMPENSATORY PICKS

Lance Zeurlein of NFL.com explains it all for 2021.

An increasing number of NFL teams are crafting their free agency strategy around their ability to create compensatory picks by shrewdly sifting through departures and acquisitions. Adding draft capital allows teams additional chances to find a diamond in the rough. Consider as one example Darius Slayton, selected by the New York Giants with a fifth-round compensatory pick in 2019; Slayton went on to finish fifth amongst rookies in receiving yards and tied for first with eight touchdowns.

So, how do compensatory picks work?

Teams are awarded compensatory draft picks between Rounds 3 and 7 based upon a league formula that takes into account the following criteria for players who left the team to sign elsewhere as free agents: average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. While there is an expected level of compensation for a player based on the amount he has signed for, his playing time (or lack thereof) in the upcoming season could alter the expectation. To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.

The number of compensatory picks allotted each year is limited to the number of teams in the league (32), per the collective bargaining agreement. However, compensatory picks are not divided up equally among the teams, and no team can receive more than four compensatory picks in a single year.

There were alterations to the methodology of determining compensatory value/picks with this year’s collective bargaining agreement. It’s likely that we will see most, if not all, of the compensatory picks land between Rounds 3 and 6 because of these changes.

The compensatory picks for the 2021 NFL Draft won’t be determined by the NFL Management Council’s formula until after the 2020 season is over, but in this post I’ll attempt to project which teams will be receiving compensatory picks next year and the round in which those picks could fall.

Keep in mind: Players need to have been signed as unrestricted free agents before April 27 and rank high enough among their peers to qualify for the compensatory-pick formula. They also cannot have been released by their previous team. Only those notable players who are projected to be eligible for the compensatory-pick formula are included among the key additions and losses listed below.

TEAM PROJECTED TO RECEIVE FOUR PICKS

DALLAS COWBOYS

Projected compensatory picks: One apiece in Rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Key free-agent losses: Byron Jones (Dolphins), Robert Quinn (Bears), Randall Cobb (Texans), Maliek Collins (Raiders).

Key free-agent additions: Gerald McCoy (Panthers), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (Bears), Greg Zuerlein (Rams).

Comp-pick analysis: Dallas lost seven total qualifying free agents and gained three, with the additions of McCoy and Clinton-Dix canceling out the losses of Collins and Jason Witten. Dallas will be without a couple of late-round picks next season thanks to trades they’ve made, but they will add plenty of ammunition, thanks to the four compensatory picks that should be coming their way.

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE THREE PICKS

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 4, one in Round 6.

Key free-agent losses: Blake Martinez (Giants), Bryan Bulaga (Chargers), Kyler Fackrell (Giants).

Key free-agent addition: Devin Funchess (Colts).

Comp-pick analysis: After a hiatus of three years, the Packers are finally back in the comp-pick game, adding three compensatory picks to go with their 2021 haul. The only question here is whether or not the compensatory pick for losing Bulaga will be a fourth- or a fifth-rounder. Martinez should net a fourth and Fackrell should bring a sixth.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 3, two in Round 4.

Key free-agent losses: Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Kyle Van Noy (Dolphins), Jamie Collins (Lions).

Key free-agent additions: None.

Comp-pick analysis: The formula is very straightforward here, with the Patriots losing five qualifiers and collecting two free agents with very modest contracts to cancel out the lower-end free agents. The contracts for Brady and Van Noy will clearly garner a third-round pick and a fourth-rounder, respectively, while Collins is likely to bring in a fourth.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 5, two in Round 6.

Key free-agent losses: Austin Hooper (Browns), Vic Beasley (Titans), De’Vondre Campbell (Cardinals).

Key free-agent addition: Dante Fowler Jr. (Rams).

Comp-pick analysis: Atlanta lost five free agents and signed one, but unfortunately for them, the addition of Fowler canceled out the loss of Hooper, leaving them with lesser-valued picks. One of their free-agent losses, Adrian Clayborn, is unlikely to qualify as one of the top 32 free agent losses according to the league’s compensatory formula, so the Falcons’ compensatory-pick total should be pretty locked in.

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE TWO PICKS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Projected compensatory picks: One apiece in Rounds 3 and 6.

Key free-agent losses: Teddy Bridgewater (Panthers), Vonn Bell (Bengals), A.J. Klein (Bills).

Key free-agent addition: Emmanuel Sanders (49ers).

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Projected compensatory picks: One apiece in Rounds 3 and 4.

Key free-agent losses: Dante Fowler Jr. (Falcons), Cory Littleton (Raiders), Greg Zuerlein (Cowboys).

Key free-agent addition: A’Shawn Robinson (Lions).

Comp-pick analysis: For the second year in a row, the Rams will add the highest compensatory pick (a third-rounder), thanks to Fowler’s departure to the Falcons, but this season, they also should grab a fourth-round pick for Littleton, who went from undrafted free agent to coveted linebacker acquisition by the Las Vegas Raiders.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Projected compensatory picks: One apiece in Rounds 3 and 6.

Key free-agent losses: Trae Waynes (Bengals), Stephen Weatherly (Panthers), Mackensie Alexander (Bengals).

Key free-agent addition: Michael Pierce (Ravens).

Comp-pick analysis: For the fourth year in a row, the Vikings have lost more free agents than they’ve gained and will receive compensatory picks for their losses.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Projected compensatory picks: One apiece in Rounds 4 and 6.

Key free-agent losses: Javon Hargrave (Eagles), Sean Davis (Redskins).

Key free-agent addition: Eric Ebron (Colts).

Comp-pick analysis: Pittsburgh signed five and lost just two, but they are unlikely to land three comp picks. They will certainly receive a fourth-round pick for the loss of Hargrave, while the lower contract terms offered to departing free agents Davis and B.J. Finney mean they are right on the border of grabbing a sixth-rounder to boot.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Projected compensatory picks: One apiece in Rounds 4 and 5.

Key free-agent losses: Kendall Fuller (Redskins), Emmanuel Ogbah (Dolphins).

Key free-agent additions: None.

Comp-pick analysis: The defending champs were very quiet in the free-agent market this season, but they lost two qualifying free agents who should bring back compensatory picks in the fourth and fifth round.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 6.

Key free-agent losses: Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Lions), Jordan Howard (Dolphins), Ronald Darby (Redskins).

Key free-agent addition: Javon Hargrave (Steelers).

Comp-pick analysis: Of all the compensatory-pick situations, this could be one of the more fluid ones.

CHICAGO BEARS

Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 6.

Key free-agent losses: Nick Kwiatkoski (Raiders), Nick Williams (Lions), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (Cowboys).

Key free-agent addition: Robert Quinn (Cowboys).

Comp-pick analysis: The Bears lost five and gained one, but it’s unlikely they get more than two sixth-round picks, with the lower salary slots of lost free agents unlikely to qualify them for compensatory picks.

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE ONE PICK

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Projected compensatory pick: Round 3.

Key free-agent losses: Philip Rivers (Colts), Melvin Gordon (Broncos).

Key free-agent additions: Brian Bulaga (Packers), Chris Harris Jr. (Broncos).

Comp-pick analysis: This is a very easy one to figure, with the Chargers losing four qualifying free agents and adding three. Rivers’ big one-year contract was nowhere near being canceled out by the deals of Bulaga or Harris, and the Chargers are locked and loaded for a third-round comp selection.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Projected compensatory pick: Round 3.

Key free-agent losses: Jack Conklin (Browns), Marcus Mariota (Raiders).

Key free-agent addition: Vic Beasley (Falcons).

Comp-pick analysis: The Titans weren’t very active in free agency, adding just Beasley as a qualifying free agent. Conklin signed a nice meaty contract with the Cleveland Browns that will net Tennessee a third-round selection next season; Tennessee replaced Conklin with Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson in the first round of this year’s draft.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Projected compensatory pick: Round 5.

Key free-agent losses: Emmanuel Sanders (Saints).

Key free-agent additions: None.

Comp-pick analysis: Aside from the departure of Sanders, there really weren’t any significant additions or subtractions from the roster via free agency — certainly not any other qualifying moves.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Projected compensatory pick: Round 6.

Key free-agent losses: Carl Nassib (Raiders), Breshad Perriman (Jets).

Key free-agent addition: Tom Brady (Patriots).

Comp-pick analysis: Brady’s big contract will cancel out the top free-agent departure (Nassib), leaving just a sixth-round compensatory pick likely to be awarded for the loss of Perriman.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Projected compensatory pick: Round 6.

Key free-agent losses: Michael Pierce (Vikings), Seth Roberts (Panthers).

Key free-agent addition: Derek Wolfe (Broncos).

Comp-pick analysis: The Ravens see their signing of Wolfe canceled out by the loss of Seth Roberts, leaving Pierce’s departure as the trigger for a fifth-round comp selection.

* * * * *

Teams projected to not receive any compensatory picks: Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Redskins.

DRAFT BARGAINS

Mike Renner of ProFootballFocus.com offers 10 draft bargains:

Not every late-round pick in the NFL draft is created equal. In fact, many late-rounders have yet to perform at a high level even in college and are purely athletic players with upside. Sometimes, though, you’ll see very productive college players with more than enough tools to succeed at the NFL level fall in the draft for one reason or another.

We identified 10 such prospects in the 2020 NFL draft whose Pro Football Focus grades and college stats suggest they will end up being steals for the lucky — and smart — teams that drafted them.

Pick 67. Detroit Lions: Julian Okwara, Edge, Notre Dame PFF’s draft rank: 28

A broken leg toward the end of last season torpedoed any sort of first-round hype, but it’s doubtful he’d have slipped out of the top 50 picks had he turned up to the scouting combine at 100 percent.

Pick 72. Arizona Cardinals: Josh Jones, OT, Houston  PFF’s draft rank: 14

We’ve never seen a better non-Power 5 tackle at Pro Football Focus. Seriously. His 93.4 overall grade last season shattered the previous PFF record, and he allowed all of two pressures for the entire season. Teams chased offensive tackles with more perceived “upside” early in the draft, but Jones simply dominated every player he faced last season. That was the case even in the week of practices at the Senior Bowl, where he earned the highest grade in the pass-blocking one-on-ones.

Pick 89. Minnesota Vikings: Cameron Dantzler, CB, Mississippi State  PFF’s draft rank: 50

Dantzler got roasted for posting a pre-draft workout video showing him running a supposed 4.38 40-yard dash after clocking in at 4.64 at the combine. Analysis of the posted video showed that time to be fraudulent, much closer to the 4.5 range. His tape never showed a “slow” corner, though, as he stuck with Alabama’s and LSU’s receiving corps to the tune of three allowed catches from six targets for a mere 21 yards across those two games.

105. New Orleans Saints: Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton   PFF’s draft rank: 105

As far as pure receiving ability goes, there might not be a better tight end in the draft class. Trautman is a sudden route runner who adjusts to off-target passes with ease and dropped only two of 72 catchable passes this past season. The Dayton tight end will be able to consistently generate windows underneath, and that’s all Brees really needs.

Pick 127. Philadelphia Eagles: K’Von Wallace, S, Clemson  PFF’s draft rank: 60

After losing Malcolm Jenkins in free agency, the Eagles were so desperately in need of safety help this offseason that they had already moved cornerback Jalen Mills back there. They didn’t address the position until the fourth round, but when they did, they selected a defensive back with a similarly versatile skill set to that of Jenkins. What Eagles fans will love even more is his tackling, where he’s arguably the best of any safety in this class.

138. Las Vegas Raiders: Amik Robertson, CB, Louisiana Tech   PFF’s draft rank: 75

Robertson not only brings the physicality that GM Mike Mayock loves, but he also affords the Raiders the flexibility to move high-priced free-agent signing Lamarcus Joyner back to safety. Joyner was a disaster manning the slot for the Raiders last season, as he allowed a passer rating of 110.8 in his coverage and earned a PFF coverage grade of 42.8. The 5-foot-8, 187-pound Robertson is much more suited for that role with his instincts.

161. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota  PFF’s draft rank: 48

Johnson was one of the most NFL-ready prospects from a route-running and release perspective. Despite middling physical tools, he finished top 10 nationally in yards per route run in each of the last two seasons because of his ability to get off the line and run routes at a high level.

That skill set translates well to the slot, where Johnson spent 661 of his 817 snaps last season. It also translates well to the routes Tom Brady loves to throw. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has gotten an unfair “dink and dunk” label over the course of his career, but it’s because he’s elite with his ball placement underneath over the middle of the field, which leads to more yards after the catch for his receivers. Johnson’s ability to make plays in those tight windows will fit in nicely, as he hauled in 17 of his 26 contested-catch opportunities last season.

215. Cincinnati Bengals: Markus Bailey, ILB, Purdue    PFF’s draft rank: 153

Bailey’s ACL injury last season — the second such injury of his career — is the obvious reason why he was still on the board in the seventh round. But after drafting two linebackers ahead of him, Cincinnati shouldn’t be surprised if Bailey turns out to be the best of the bunch.  He was a four-year starter at Purdue and earned above-average coverage grades every single year despite often playing the “overhang” role that saw him covering the slot.

217. San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings, WR, Tennessee     PFF’s draft rank: 70

The 49ers are building an offense full of YAC monsters out in the Bay Area. They already had the league leaders in broken tackles at both receiver (Deebo Samuel, 18) and tight end (George Kittle, 20) on the roster. Then they added the player who finished second in the draft class in terms of yards after the catch per reception (Brandon Aiyuk, 10.9) before taking college football’s leader in broken tackles in the seventh.  While he lacks the top-end speed to be productive downfield in the league, Jennings doesn’t have to be that in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

219. Baltimore Ravens: Geno Stone, S, Iowa      PFF’s draft rank: 53

Stone doesn’t have prototypical physical tools by any means. At 5-foot-10 and 207 pounds, Stone lacks the length (29¼-inch arms) and speed (4.62 in the 40-yard dash) that most evaluators look for in the NFL. Those two things were also never an issue on his college tape. Stone was college football’s highest-graded safety as a true sophomore and junior over the past two seasons.