The Daily Briefing Thursday, April 4, 2024
THE DAILY BRIEFING
NFC NORTH |
CHICAGO Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com (as part of a longer piece) explains what happens when you pick a QB first overall: What should the Bears and other teams expect when they take a quarterback in Round 1? Being an NFL fan who pays close attention to the draft requires you to keep two entirely different realities in mind. One is the universe we’re all collectively in right now, a few weeks before the draft, in which everybody is excited. The players at the top of the draft are can’t-miss generational prospects. Every player is going to be a hit. Every team is going to fill its needs. April is the most optimistic month of the NFL calendar.
And yet, I just showed you the data. It’s not going to be much different at other positions than it is at quarterback. Nearly half of the quarterbacks who get drafted in Round 1 turn out to be bitter disappointments. For all the advancements we’ve made in analytics, access to film, historical knowledge and context, that hasn’t changed. The 2021 quarterback class might turn out to be the most disappointing in league history, and it’s not going to stop the teams at the top of the 2024 draft from taking as many as four more in the top five picks.
The reality that about half the players will turn out to be busts shouldn’t discourage us from caring about the draft or make you write off the idea of draft picks as wastes of time. After all, veteran free agents can also be disappointing, and the value gained by drafting a player on a rookie deal and having him succeed outweighs the downside of failing, even if Round 1 prospects turn into viable starters only 50% to 60% of the time.
Bears fans understandably have spent the past three months comparing Caleb Williams (USC) to Burrow and Peyton Manning as former No. 1 overall picks who transformed their franchises, and for their sake, let’s hope Williams becomes that player. In the big picture, though, what should fans realistically expect when their team drafts a quarterback in the first round? What should qualify as a satisfying, successful pick?
So much of this depends on where teams are drafting, and so I’ll split this section into groups by range. Again, I’ll be injecting my opinion and some projection for the more recently drafted passers, and I’ll be weighing this toward performance from these players early in their careers as opposed to what they might have done later for another team.
Going back through 1980, let me try to contextualize what fans should be expecting when their team takes a Round 1 passer. I’ll include that expectation as the “average” return below. I’ll also include the best and worst quarterbacks taken in each range, as well as the 80th percentile and the 20th percentile options, which serve as reasonable targets for upside and floor without getting into once-in-a-generation outcomes:
When teams take a QB No. 1 overall, they get … Best: Peyton Manning 80th percentile: Joe Burrow Average: Jared Goff 20th percentile: David Carr Worst: Jamarcus Russell
Would Bears fans be satisfied if Williams had Goff’s career through eight seasons? My guess is probably not, but maybe they should be, because he’s probably the closest comparison for what an average No. 1 overall QB pick performs like in the NFL. The guys right around him, by my estimation, are Trevor Lawrence and Michael Vick.
Goff probably doesn’t have the sort of ceiling Bears fans are hoping for from Williams, but it also seems hard to argue that the Bears wouldn’t be thrilled with Goff’s level of success. He has made three Pro Bowls, won five playoff games, went to the Super Bowl with the Rams and helped rebuild the Lions into legitimate contenders, all before turning 30.
Is Williams a better quarterback prospect than Goff was in 2016? Is Williams better than the majority of the other No. 1 picks when they were coming out of school? It’s tough to say. We talk ourselves into that story more often than we should, if only because it’s easier to get excited about what we haven’t seen than appropriately contextualize what we have seen. If Williams struggles or even plays the way that Lawrence has in Jacksonville, he’ll quickly lose that pedigree as a generational quarterback prospect and we’ll put it on the next guy to come up instead. As it stands, Williams projects to be better than the typical top quarterback pick, but not so much so that Chicago fans should set their average expectation to be something like Burrow.
When teams take a QB in the top three, they get … Best: Peyton Manning 80th percentile: Eli Manning Average: Jim Everett 20th percentile: Joey Harrington Worst: Ryan Leaf
Let’s expand the group and include every quarterback taken with the first, second or third overall picks, because we expect to see three passers chosen in that range later this month. There’s a handful of quarterbacks taken at Nos. 2 or 3 who outperformed or are outperforming many of the No. 1 overall picks, with Matt Ryan, Steve McNair and C.J. Stroud as examples, but many of the players added to the mix here lean more on the disappointing side.
You can see how the expectations are diminished as a result. Goff is a three-time Pro Bowler with a significant playoff résumé. Everett, a fellow former Rams quarterback, made it to the Pro Bowl once and took Los Angeles to the conference championship once, where it was blown out by the 49ers in 1990. He was a 10-year starter in the NFL, but only six of those years produced an above-average passer rating after adjusting for era.
If Everett is a little too far into the past for your preferences, a more modern example right around him in average ranking would be Carson Wentz. Most of Wentz’s value came in one season, when he was among the favorites to win MVP in 2017 before tearing an ACL in December. Wentz didn’t play the rest of the way, but he did enough to get the Eagles in position to win the top seed in the NFC, and Nick Foles carried them the rest of the way to a title.
Wentz had two more solid seasons as a starter in Philadelphia and an underrated year in Indianapolis, but it ended poorly in both stops and then again in Washington. Is that short peak better than Vinny Testaverde, who played forever while mostly posting below-average numbers? If a team is drafting a quarterback in the top three, it likely would prefer what Wentz did, even given how his tenures ended.
When teams take a QB in the top 10, they get … Best: Patrick Mahomes 80th percentile: Drew Bledsoe Average: Kerry Collins 20th percentile: Jake Locker Worst: Art Schlichter
Given how good Mahomes has been over the first seven years of his career, I’m willing to project out the rest of his career as being better than any other top-10 quarterback going back through 1980. Yes, that means putting him ahead of John Elway, Peyton Manning and Steve Young. It’s also not really the point here; we’re trying to figure out what the average expectation for a draft pick looks like, not who’s No. 1 or No. 2.
Expanding the group to include the entirety of the top 10, Collins shows up as the average passer, albeit with a unique career. He made the Pro Bowl in his second season with the Panthers as the quarterback on a 12-4 team, but two years later, he wanted out of the organization and was released. Collins briefly joined the Saints before heading to New York, where he led the Giants to a surprise Super Bowl run in 2000. He then had a long run as a starter with the Giants and Raiders before another Pro Bowl year at age 36 with the Titans in 2008. Collins was never great, but he had a few good seasons mixed in with average quarterback play.
Other options in this range would include one-year wonders like Griffin and Daniel Jones, whose big year didn’t reach the same heights as that of Wentz in the prior group, as well as the likes of Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon, who won Super Bowls as the caretaker on defense-first teams.
When teams take a QB in Round 1, they get … Best: Patrick Mahomes 80th percentile: Donovan McNabb Average: Jason Campbell 20th percentile: EJ Manuel Worst: Art Schlichter
Let’s finish up by looking at all the first-round picks over that time frame and see what fans should expect as an average return. On the high end, we have Mahomes. On the low, there’s Schlichter, who threw 11 interceptions on 202 career passes, averaged 5.0 yards per attempt and sat out a season after being suspended for gambling.
You can see how hard it is to land a truly elite quarterback with a later first-round pick when you consider that the 80th percentile option is McNabb, who was closer to good than great for most of his career in Philadelphia. The other players around him were Goff, Herbert and Vick.
The average quarterback from the first round looks something like Campbell, who was taken 25th by Washington in 2005. He went 20-32 as a starter and had years when he put together elements of impressive play, including a league-best 1.2% interception rate in 2008, but he was never able to combine all of that into a breakout season. He was close to a league-average quarterback for five years and then had a couple of years as a backup and rotational quarterback in the Midwest before retiring after the 2014 season.
In the big picture, what we think of as the typical first-round quarterback is a lot more impressive than what teams actually project to land, especially after adjusting for where they’re being selected. As we approach the 2024 draft and what might be an unprecedented run of quarterbacks from Nos. 1 to 4, history tells us it would be a pleasant surprise if two of them turned into franchise-caliber passers. We’re more likely to see two players who wash out of the league than two future Hall of Famers.
And yet, at the same time, knowing history shouldn’t stop teams from drafting quarterbacks. Taking a quarterback in Round 1 is more valuable now than it has ever been, arguably, in the history of the game. If the Bears, Commanders, Patriots or any of the other teams linked to signal-callers have a quarterback they love in the first round, they should do what they need to do to land them. Just have a healthy expectation for what might happen next. |
NFC WEST |
SEATTLE The Seahawks have a new VP of Football Administration.
The Seahawks have added to their front office.
Seattle announced on Wednesday that the club has hired Joey Laine to be the team’s new vice president of football administration.
Laine heads to Seattle after serving as Green Bay’s salary cap analyst. He also previously worked with the Bears as the team’s chief contract negotiator.
Laine will replace Matt Thomas, who recently departed the organization after spending 11 years with the Seahawks. |
AFC WEST |
KANSAS CITY With Jackson County, Missouri voters giving a thumbs down vote to the Chiefs (and Royals), there are politicians who want to put the Kansas in Kansas City. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com: If the Chiefs leave Kansas City, they might not go far.
According to the Kansas City Star, an effort has commenced to get the Chiefs to build a new stadium in Kansas. Specifically, former Kansas House Speaker Ron Ryckman Jr. is “quietly working” with “unnamed parties” who are interested in getting the Chiefs to make a short move across the state line.
The news comes today after a proposal to fund a renovation to Arrowhead Stadium with an extension of an existing sales tax failed badly at the ballot box.
“Jackson County fumbled. Now there will be a mad scramble for the ball and we’re in the best position for a scoop and score,” Ryckman told the Star.
(While they’re at it, can they pass a law against politicians and/or lawyers using bad football puns?)
When Kansas legalized sports betting, 80 percent of the revenue was earmarked for a new fund for attracting pro sports teams to the state. The fund reportedly could have $10 million by 2025. (It will need a lot more than that.)
Other measures could be used to help fund a stadium with taxpayer money. The key will be to come up with a plan that doesn’t require a voter of the people, because (as we learned again last night) the people have no appetite to subsidize those who own sports teams.
The Chiefs’ lease at Arrowhead Stadium expires after the 2030 season. |
AFC SOUTH |
HOUSTON The Texans take WR STEFON DIGGS off the hands of the Bills, without giving up a first round pick. ESPN.com: The Buffalo Bills traded four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for draft pick compensation Wednesday.
The Bills received a 2025 second-round pick (via the Minnesota Vikings) in exchange for Diggs, a 2024 sixth-round pick (No. 189 overall) and a 2025 fifth-round selection. The Texans acquired the pick from the Vikings when they traded their 2024 first-round pick to Minnesota last month.
The trade comes a day after Diggs responded “You sure?” to a social media user’s declaration that he wasn’t essential to Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s success.
“I want to thank Stef for four really good seasons,” Bills general manager Brandon Beane said Wednesday. “… Really appreciate everything he brought to the team, was a big part of us winning four divisions. These moves are never easy. Very hard. Not made overnight or anything like that, but anytime you make a move like this … you’re trying to win, and sometimes people may not see that.
“This is by no means the Bills giving up or trying to take a step back or anything like that. Everything we do, we’re trying to win. And we’re going to continue to do that.”
Beane declined to say whether Diggs or his agent requested a trade.
It’s the latest win-now move for the Texans, who are surrounding quarterback C.J. Stroud with veteran talent this offseason.
The Texans traded for running back Joe Mixon last month, acquiring him from the Cincinnati Bengals and then signing him to a three-year, $27 million extension. They also made a splash on the defensive side, signing star pass-rusher Danielle Hunter to a two-year, $49 million contract, including $48 million guaranteed, in free agency.
Diggs, 30, joins a loaded Texans offense that is headlined by Stroud, the NFL’s reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and includes Mixon, receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz.
In the 2023 season, Dell was on pace for 1,205 receiving yards before suffering a season-ending injury in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos in Week 13. Dell and Stroud finished with the eighth-most passing yards for a first-year quarterback and wide receiver duo (709). Collins ranked eighth in receiving yards (1,297) and had eight touchdowns.
Last month, the Texans tried to trade for Keenan Allen and offered a Day 2 pick from the 2025 draft. The Los Angeles Chargers instead sent Allen to the Chicago Bears, but it was a sign the Texans were eager to improve their receiver core to help Stroud in his second season.
Some Q&A with ESPN contributors on what it might mean for Houston: Why were the Texans looking to add another receiver, and what does Diggs bring? Houston already had dynamic wide receivers in Tank Dell or Nico Collins, but it needed more options. Stroud and the offense’s production dipped when injuries came into play. Dell suffered a season-ending leg injury in Week 13, and the offense averaged 17.3 points per game (26th) during the rest of the regular season in comparison to 22.9 (ninth) before.
Adding Diggs elevates the depth and ceiling of the playmakers. Since 2020, Diggs is fourth in yards (5,372) and touchdowns (37) while leading in receptions (445) among all pass-catchers. He’s a No. 1 receiver who commands attention from opposing defenses. — D.J. Bien-Aime
C.J. Stroud gets a true No. 1 receiver, but how will he keep all of his pass-catchers happy in his second season? Stroud led the league in passing yards per game (274) with Collins, who had less than 1,000 yards receiving in his first two seasons combined, and Dell, a rookie out of Houston. Stroud’s accuracy and leadership will keep everyone on the same page. He had five pass-catchers with more than 400 yards receiving last season, including tight end Dalton Schultz. Stroud also finds various ways to connect with his teammates off the field to keep morale high. — Bien-Aime
What does the trade mean for the Texans’ Nico Collins and Tank Dell, both still on their rookie contracts, for the future? Dell has three years left before his contract is up, so this is more about Collins, who’s in the last year of his rookie deal. He had a breakout year in 2023, finishing with 1,297 receiving yards (eighth in the NFL) and eight touchdowns. The 2021 third-round pick is 25, and, if he has a repeat of last season, he can command over $20 million. Diggs’ contract runs through 2027, and he is an expensive receiver, so if Collins performs well, is Houston comfortable with two highly paid receivers in the near future? — Bien-Aime
What does this do for the Texans’ expectations for 2024? It turns them up to a midsummer Houston temperature. General manager Nick Caserio and coach DeMeco Ryans are aggressively attacking this two-year window with Stroud playing under his cheap rookie deal. The Texans could have found comfort in last year’s 10-win season and run it back. Instead, they sent a flare to the sky to put the rest of the league on notice: This is a contender right now. This doesn’t come without risk: Splashy additions Danielle Hunter and Diggs have played a combined 17 seasons and come with big salaries.
That could disrupt chemistry on a young, ascending team. But Diggs has no guaranteed money after 2024, giving the Texans flexibility if things don’t work out. And, make no mistake, Diggs is still a bona fide No. 1 option despite a dip in production last year. With a fresh outlook, a talented young quarterback and a lack of contractual security long term, Diggs should be motivated. — Jeremy Fowler |
AFC EAST |
BUFFALO GM Brandon Beane is vague as to why the Bills opted to dispose of WR STEFON DIGGS. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Bills General Manager Brandon Beane said there was no one specific reason the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Texans on Wednesday, but that they’re confident they’ve made the best move for the long-term health of the Bills franchise.
“You don’t want to get into every reason you make every move. It’s not one thing,” Beane said. “You weigh the pros and the cons with every decision like this. We don’t take it lightly. But we’re always making moves in the best interests of the Bills.”
There were obvious tensions in Buffalo surrounding Diggs, with a perception that the team and the player didn’t always see eye-to-eye. Beane didn’t go into any of that after the trade.
“I really appreciate everything he brought to the team. He was a big part of us winning four divisions,” Beane said.
Beane said the Bills have turned down other trade offers for Diggs but felt the Texans’ offer — Houston is sending its 2025 second-round draft pick to Buffalo in exchange for Diggs, a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2024 sixth-round pick — was the right offer at the right time.
“It’s not the first time we’ve been called to ask, would we move him?” Beane said, adding that trade talks only got serious this week.
Asked why the Bills would move on from Diggs now, two years after they signed him to a massive contract extension, Beane said, “A lot can change in two years.” |
THIS AND THAT |
THE SUPER LEAGUE OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL The current wave of conference expansion is just a short step on the way to a new concept of college football that includes unionized players, relegation and no more conferences as we know them. Mike Florio summarizes a bigger story in The Athletic: Anger, denial, bargain, and depression are over. The nation’s major universities are finally landing at acceptance.
The NCAA is dead. The long-overdue reckoning has killed it. The powers-that-be know it’s time to move on. They’re trying to, with the only solution that can introduce control into the chaos that has become college football.
Andrew Marchand and Stewart Mandel of TheAthletic.com report that a group of college presidents, working with NFL executive Brian Rolapp and others, are trying to form what is being called a “Super League.”
The current system would be blown up. The conferences would fold. The playoff system would go extinct. In their place would be a league with 70 fixed teams and 10 others that will be subject to relegation and promotion from the remaining 60 schools.
The “Super League” would have eight 10-team divisions, with the division winners and eight wild-cards qualifying for a 16-team playoff.
College football would essentially become pro football. Which it already is, without the levers and protections that create stability for the teams.
The idea would be to embrace a unionized workforce, which would legitimize rules that, in the absence of a multi-employer bargaining unit, are antitrust violations that have been hiding in plain sight, for years. Now that one case after another is proving these violations of federal law — and racking up potential liability that currently exceeds $5 billion and counting — those who get it know that college football needs to break glass in event of emergency, because emergency has arrived.
Two school presidents gave on-the-record quotes to TheAthletic.com regarding the situation.
“The current model for governing and managing college athletics is dead,” Syracuse chancellor Kent Syverud said.
“We are in an existential crisis,” added West Virginia president Gordon Gee told TheAthletic.com.
They’re right. It’s over. The system is and has been inherently corrupt, and the corruption is being exposed through viable litigation that will continue to blow massive holes into the budgets of conferences and their members.
“I really think conferences in the NCAA are at a very significant likelihood of going bankrupt in the near future because of the lawsuits, both the ones that are going to trial soon and those that will follow,” Syverud told TheAthletic.com.
That’s the point we made in a recent item regarding the efforts to unionize the Dartmouth men’s basketball team. Schools that have fought the concept of unionization tooth and nail need to realize that a nationwide union of paid players is the only way out of the current maze.
” For decades, the schools have refused to dip a toe into the pay-the-players pool,” we wrote. “Now that successful litigation against the rampant antitrust violations have dropped a shark into the water, the only way to get a bigger boat is to embrace the concept of a national, unionized workforce.”
It won’t be easy. Many within the structure will resist. They’ll resist because they’ll still refuse to realize it’s the only way out of the mess they’ve created and maintained. Those who just don’t get it need to get out of the way, before it’s too late for the entire sport.
Actually, it’s already too late. From the story in The Athletic, it doesn’t sound as far along as Florio implies: Thus far, the group is struggling to gain traction with the schools that would play in their proposed “Super League.” The ACC board of directors heard a presentation from the group in February. However, planned dinners with administrators from the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 all were called off. Spokespersons for the Big Ten and SEC said commissioners Petitti and Greg Sankey, respectively, have not met with Perna’s group.
Leagues have been hesitant and canceled meetings so as not to upset their current broadcast partners, including ESPN and Fox, according to one executive briefed on the commissioners’ thoughts.
Chief among the obstacles this new venture faces are the billions of dollars in TV deals that all the top conferences have locked in with the major networks: ESPN/ABC, Fox, NBC and CBS. The FBS conferences recently signed off on a six-year, $7.8 billion extension with ESPN for the exclusive rights to the expanded College Football Playoff.
The Big Ten’s deals run through the 2029-30 season, the Big 12’s run through 2030-31 and the SEC’s exclusive deal with ESPN runs through 2033-34. One TV executive called the idea that there is a lot more untapped money in the market “naive.” One CST executive said that the major networks with existing deals would likely need to buy into the plan before it could go to the open market in the 2030s.
Universities would own a percentage of the league, a model derived from MLS where it was devised by former president Mark Abbott, who is involved with CST. Unlike the soccer league, the revenue distribution would not be an even split among all competitors, as top brands like Alabama and Notre Dame would receive more of the financial pie. CST believes there would be added value in negotiating TV deals as one entity and creating broadcast windows that make more sense, much like the NFL’s approach. |
2024 DRAFT Field Yates of ESPN.com with a two-round Mock Draft: We’re officially into April, which means the 2024 NFL draft is right around the corner. Just about all pre-draft events are behind us — all-star games, the combine and pro days — save for team visits and interviews. So after returning from a couple of pro day trips out West, I wanted to update my projections for where the top prospects could land in a few weeks.
What’s the only thing better than a first-round mock draft? A two-round mock draft. I went 64 picks deep this time around, and I found new homes for six quarterbacks, a ton of offensive playmakers and some really talented defensive stars. Adding to the fun, I projected four intriguing trades in this exercise — two in each round. Which teams could make a move up the board to get their guy?
ROUND 1
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR) Caleb Williams, QB, USC We know the Bears will use the first overall pick on a quarterback — they traded Justin Fields to the Steelers last month — and Williams is a safe bet to be the answer under center. His dazzling playmaking ability will travel to the NFL, and he’d be set up for early success with an enviable wide receiver duo of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Chicago might even be able to further improve his supporting cast with its second top-10 selection at No. 9. Either way, this pick concludes the stress-free portion of the draft, as things get interesting from here.
2. Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU Forecasting who the Commanders will take is a bit trickier, as the team has not tipped its hand in any meaningful way. So I’ll go with Daniels, the second-ranked player on my board regardless of position, to replace Sam Howell after his trade to Seattle. Daniels was the best player in college football last season, winning the Heisman Trophy, and he blends rare mobility with excellent pocket passing. He averaged more rushing yards per carry (8.4) than any other FBS player in 2023 and led the nation in QBR (95.6).
3. New England Patriots Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina I am firmly of the belief that the Patriots should not trade down from this pick and should take a quarterback, regardless whether it is Maye or Daniels. Maye has the ideal quarterback build at 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, a massive arm and very, very good mobility. While he had a lesser year in 2023 compared to 2022, I still see all the traits for him to be a franchise quarterback. And New England needs one after finishing 30th in yards per attempt last season (6.1). The Patriots must use the rest of this draft to surround Maye with wide receiver and offensive line help.
4. Arizona Cardinals Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State This feels too good to overthink it, as the pro-ready Harrison — who has as much upside for his position as any player in the class — would fill what is now Arizona’s most obvious need at wide receiver. The team’s leading wide receiver last season was Marquise Brown, and he departed in free agency. The depth chart is light, and Harrison averaged 100.9 yards per game as a junior. He’d bring size, speed and great hands to the position.
Projected trade: Vikings eye their QB of the future Three quarterbacks are already off the board, and Minnesota has a big hole there after Kirk Cousins signed elsewhere in March. So I have the Vikings sending Nos. 11 and 23 this year and an additional 2025 first-rounder to the Chargers to move up to No. 5 for the class’ QB4. Los Angeles, meanwhile, picks up valuable assets to build its roster back up.
5. Minnesota Vikings (via mock trade with LAC) J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan Minnesota would be betting on McCarthy’s combination of very good ball placement and mobility helping him become its long-term answer, with Sam Darnold in tow for 2024 if McCarthy needs time to get his feet wet. The supporting cast in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and an elite offensive tackle duo give him a shot for serious early success. McCarthy completed 72.3% of his passes and threw only four interceptions last season.
6. New York Giants Malik Nabers, WR, LSU The Giants’ wide receiver corps does not have a difference-maker at the moment, but that would all change with Nabers. He’s the most explosive player in the draft and a run-after-catch nightmare for defenses; he forced 27 missed tackles in 2023 during a breakout season. While the Giants appear open to considering a first-round quarterback, there are already four off the board here, so I think the team would turn its attention to upgrading around Daniel Jones.
7. Tennessee Titans Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame The Titans came into the offseason with a lengthy to-do list but have spent big to upgrade the roster, adding Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed and Lloyd Cushenberry, among others. But one massive need remains: left tackle. Alt, a 21-year-old former college tight end, would fill that hole in a hurry. He has great length at 6-foot-9 and is a smooth operator who would only get better under the guidance of Bill Callahan, one of the best offensive line coaches in the league. The Titans allowed 64 sacks last season, tied for fourth most in the NFL, so this has to be a priority.
8. Atlanta Falcons Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama It’s time for some defense, and Turner is the ideal candidate to kick things off on that side of the ball in this draft. Atlanta spent a lot of money in free agency on offense but is desperate for edge help — it was last in pass rush win rate in 2023 (30.9%). Turner is a standout pass-rusher who had 10 sacks last season, showcasing burst and power. New coach Raheem Morris would love this addition and be able to slot him in as a top option right away.
9. Chicago Bears Rome Odunze, WR, Washington This pick projection really excites me. Odunze ranks sixth on my board, meaning he’s a value pick at No. 9 and a great get for the offense, which will be led by a rookie QB. The idea of Odunze alongside DJ Moore and Keenan Allen is tantalizing, as Odunze tied for the most contested catches in the FBS last season with 24. His combination of 6-foot-3 size, great body control and high-end instincts makes him a threat at every level of the field.
10. New York Jets Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia After trading for Morgan Moses and signing Tyron Smith in free agency, the Jets have a pair of veteran starters at offensive tackle. I have concerns about durability for Smith — he has played in just 30 of 67 possible games over the past four seasons — and the Jets face an urgent season with QB Aaron Rodgers turning 41 in December, so taking a quality offensive tackle is still very much appealing. That said, Bowers is a difference-making tight end who would complement star wideout Garrett Wilson and recently signed Mike Williams. He would thrive with no shortage of run-after-catch opportunities.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (via mock trade with MIN) JC Latham, OT, Alabama Following the projected move down, the Chargers can now get to work building this roster how new coach Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz envision it — which I expect will be through the trenches. Though the Chargers have Trey Pipkins III under contract for another two seasons, Latham would represent a short- and long-term upgrade. And he has the positional versatility to play guard if Los Angeles wanted to keep Pipkins on the field. Latham’s overwhelming strength is a perfect fit for a team that will want to wear opponents out with its physicality.
12. Denver Broncos Bo Nix, QB, Oregon The clock is ticking for the Broncos to address the quarterback room — they currently have only Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci on the roster, and there are few remaining available options to boost the depth outside of the draft. With four quarterbacks off the board, the Broncos must act urgently. They don’t have a second-round pick this year, making any sort of move up the board difficult to pull off. So I instead have them taking my QB5 despite him being the No. 37 prospect on my board.
Nix’s accuracy and processing speed would appeal to coach Sean Payton, as he finished his college career by completing 77.4% of his passes in 2023 — an FBS single-season record. His tape was impressive to watch.
13. Las Vegas Raiders Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State The Raiders addressed their most pressing need of the offseason by signing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a huge free agent deal, which forms one of the most devastating defensive line duos in football with him and Maxx Crosby. Next up is the right side of the offensive line, as the Raiders are thin at both tackle and guard there. Fuaga would alleviate that issue in a hurry. He is known for bringing a nastiness to an offensive line and setting the tone, but he’s also an impressively smooth-moving right tackle.
14. New Orleans Saints Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State Stating anything with certainty around the draft is risky business, but I feel good about saying the Saints will address their offensive line in the first round. They have major questions at both offensive tackle spots, as 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning has struggled and Ryan Ramczyk has an ongoing knee issue. Fashanu is a plug-and-play starter at left tackle, with excellent size and very good feet for the position. He has the talent to anchor this line for quite some time, and adding Fashanu would allow the Saints to try Penning at another spot.
15. Indianapolis Colts Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo I was impressed with how the Colts’ secondary held up last season with a largely young and inexperienced perimeter cornerback group, but they still need to address the position in this draft. Enter Mitchell, a fast perimeter cornerback whose nose for the football is impossible to miss. Mitchell’s four-interception game in 2022 — including two that were run back for touchdowns — was one of the most enjoyable performances to study for any prospect in the class. He looks like a receiver with the football in his hands and has elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine).
16. Seattle Seahawks Troy Fautanu, G, Washington Fautanu wouldn’t even have to move in this scenario, and he’d provide a huge boost for a razor-thin interior of the Seahawks’ offensive line. Fautanu was an awesome college left tackle but has the flexibility to kick inside and play guard. Seattle lost Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes in free agency (the former on a lucrative deal with Carolina) and must shore up the position. Fautanu plays with an edge that shows up on tape.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama The Jaguars had a couple of notable needs this offseason at center and cornerback, but because they added steady veteran Mitch Morse on a two-year deal to man the middle of the offensive line, cornerback takes center stage. Arnold is ranked much higher on my board than this (No. 9 overall), but the run on offensive positions could help the Jaguars get a standout on the other side of the ball here. He’s aggressive, has awesome ball skills, is fearless in coverage and shows really good instincts — all of which contributed to a huge 2023 season that included five interceptions.
18. Cincinnati Bengals Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU Franchise-tagged receiver Tee Higgins still desires to be traded, and though a deal is not a certainty, it’s a reminder that the Bengals have to examine the receiver spot in the draft. Higgins could choose to play out the season and test free agency in 2025 (a double tag is expensive), and the wideout room could become historically expensive if Higgins is extended with Ja’Marr Chase now also extension eligible. Thomas has the best second gear of any wideout in the class, as his effortless ability to separate down the field helped him lead the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023.
19. Los Angeles Rams Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State There is a sudden hole in the Rams’ defense after the retirement of Aaron Donald, so defensive tackle has certainly moved up their priority list. That made Texas’ Byron Murphy II an intriguing consideration here. But the Rams’ need for a pass-rush boost led me instead to the explosive Robinson. While his modest sack production (four in 2023) will be something teams dig in on, I see the best first step for any pass-rusher in the entire class and a player who can bend the edge in a hurry. It’s easy for me to envision him stuffing the stat sheet much more at the NFL level.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers Graham Barton, C, Duke Although wide receiver was a thought here after the Steelers traded Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh’s history of finding talented wideouts beyond the first round and the position’s depth in this class made me go another direction. Barton is among the most versatile linemen available, having played left tackle his final three seasons at Duke after playing center as a true freshman. I view him as an interior player in the NFL and a center for the Steelers, as he is arguably the most impressive run-blocker in the class. His versatility, core power and handwork all stood out to me when watching tape.
21. Miami Dolphins Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas The Dolphins just watched Christian Wilkins depart in free agency, but Murphy has some traces of Wilkins in his game as a disruptive interior defender. Murphy had a great season in 2023 with five sacks, but the stats are far from the full story of his impact. He has a unique ability to torque and hold up against the run, and he makes life easier for the players around him.
22. Philadelphia Eagles Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson Philly has undergone a ton of change this offseason, but one area not yet addressed in a significant manner is the cornerback room. While Darius Slay and James Bradberry will remain fixtures this season, the Eagles need an infusion of both speed and youth. Wiggins certainly checks both of those boxes, as he was the fastest defensive player at the combine (4.28-second 40-yard dash). I’ve harped on these plays throughout the pre-draft process, but Wiggins chased down ball carriers who looked bound for the end zone and forced a fumble on two separate occasions last season. That level of effort helps teams win games.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (via CLE/HOU and mock trade with MIN) Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas There is a plausible scenario in which the Chargers stand pat at No. 5 and take the best wide receiver available. After releasing Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen, they have to reshape their wide receiver room. But here Los Angeles can stockpile picks and still take advantage of a deep receiver class, landing a buttery smooth route runner in Mitchell. He has excellent size, great speed and reliable hands, with just one drop in his lone season at Texas (he transferred from Georgia). He also averaged 15.4 yards per catch last season and would be a good fit with quarterback Justin Herbert.
Projected trade: 49ers see an opportunity It would be no surprise if the 49ers act swiftly to fortify their offensive line. I have them sending No. 31 and a third-rounder to the Cowboys for No. 24, giving them a chance to add a potential future star.
24. San Francisco 49ers (via mock trade with DAL) Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia Mims is 6-foot-8 and 340 pounds, and he has nearly 87 inches in wingspan and terrific footwork. He’s inexperienced with just 803 college snaps and eight starts, but after extending right tackle Colton McKivitz through 2024, San Francisco could afford to develop Mims this offseason and work him into the lineup as needed in Year 1. Mims would also be a potential succession plan to Trent Williams long term at left tackle.
25. Green Bay Packers Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma Green Bay’s roster is full of youth with developmental upside — many of whom hit their stride ahead of schedule in 2023 — and Guyton fits right in. He was essentially a one-year full-time starter in college, manning the right tackle spot for Oklahoma in 2023 (he began his career in 2020-2021 at TCU, which included snaps at H-back). At 6-foot-8 and 322 pounds, his frame alone makes him an intriguing player, but toss in his solid footwork, and the potential is immense. I view Guyton as an NFL left tackle who would immediately compete with Rasheed Walker for the starting job and soon become a fixture there.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA The Bucs have holes at edge rusher and along the interior of their offensive line, and Latu — my No. 16 prospect — is the most refined pass-rusher in the class, showing off masterful hand usage and understanding of how to set up opposing offensive linemen on tape. A neck injury early in his college career forced Latu into medical retirement while at Washington, though he eventually received clearance after a transfer to UCLA. It’s a significant part of the calculation in drafting him and why he might not hear his name called earlier, but his 23.5 sacks over the past two seasons speak to his talent.
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU) Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State Arizona has three top-35 picks, making it a possible trade-up team late in the first round if it has a specific target. But the Cardinals’ patience in this scenario would pay off in the form of Verse, a super powerful pass-rusher who many thought was bound for the draft last year (he was viewed as a possible first-round pick even then). Verse is a slightly older prospect — he’ll be 24 during his rookie season — and doesn’t have quite the same bend as the rushers taken prior to him, but he’s going to be a good pro and can fill a major need for Arizona. He had 18 sacks over the past two seasons.
28. Buffalo Bills Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas The Bills’ glaring weakness at wide receiver became even bigger when Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs to Houston on Wednesday, and I have the Bills flagged as another potential trade-up candidate. But there will also be options available at No. 28 given the class’s depth. I’m sure you’ve heard Worthy ran the fastest 40-yard dash time at the combine since at least 2003 (4.21 seconds), but the game speed he showed on film is just as important as his timed speed. Worthy has excellent tracking skills on vertical passes down the field, too, helping him to 1,014 yards last season. I’m envisioning Josh Allen moon shots thrown to a wide-open Worthy.
29. Detroit Lions Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa Cornerback was already a priority for Detroit prior to the release of Cameron Sutton (amid allegations of domestic battery), and it now feels like an early must-have in the draft. DeJean would join former Iowa teammate (and 2023 first-rounder) Jack Campbell in Detroit and provide a boost to the Lions’ secondary. He’s springy with exceptional man coverage skills and on-ball production (seven INTs over the past two years). GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell would surely be drawn to DeJean’s toughness and willingness as a tackler, two traits that also lead evaluators to think he could be the best safety in the class if he moved to that spot. But I view him as a corner — and a really good one.
30. Baltimore Ravens Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU Baltimore will be filling at least one spot along the offensive line in the draft following the trade of Morgan Moses and departure of John Simpson in free agency. In fact, both tackle spots bear monitoring as Ronnie Stanley reworked his deal this offseason and is now scheduled to be a free agent in 2025. Suamataia moves extremely well and can open lanes in space, but he might require some time to develop.
31. Dallas Cowboys (via mock trade with SF) Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona The Cowboys figure to be locked in on a tackle following Tyron Smith’s departure in free agency, especially if they intend to keep Tyler Smith at left guard. No other team has been more passive in free agency, but after the trade back, the Cowboys can fill holes and build depth through the draft. Morgan can be a starting left tackle, but he also can kick inside to left guard if Dallas ultimately prefers to move Tyler Smith to tackle full time. Morgan would make it eight offensive tackles in Round 1, which would tie the 2008 common draft era record (since 1967), per ESPN Stats & Information.
32. Kansas City Chiefs Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri I’m not sure any other team has a better recent track record of drafting cornerbacks than the Chiefs, but after the trade of L’Jarius Sneed, there’s a bit of a gap in the overall depth of the unit on the perimeter. Rakestraw is a tailor-made fit for this roster, as he plays with an edge, similar to Sneed. Few corners can impose their will on a game like Rakestraw did at the collegiate level; that will travel to the pros. Alternatively, Kansas City could look at receivers or offensive tackles, but with six and eight, respectively, already drafted, it might be best to wait until Day 2 there.
ROUND 2
Projected trade: Titans jump-start Day 2 with a move Teams will have nearly 24 hours to determine if they want to move up in Round 2 for someone who might have Day 1 traits but slid. And I have the Titans sending No. 38 and a pair of fourth-rounders (one in 2025) to the Panthers for No. 33 overall to kick things off. Yes, Tennessee is already out a third-round pick this year as part of last year’s trade up for Will Levis, but this team looks intent on trying to win ASAP.
33. Tennessee Titans (via mock trade with CAR) Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri Let’s continue the aggressive offseason for the Titans with a move up for a player whose tape screams first-round talent. It seems wrong even having Robinson in the second round. He is so physical, quick and versatile, and he had 8.5 sacks last season.
34. New England Patriots Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina New lead decision-maker Eliot Wolf has talked about adding playmakers to the New England offense, and at 6-foot-1 and 221 pounds, Legette would bring physicality and explosion. He had 1,255 yards last season and is an outstanding run-after-catch player.
35. Arizona Cardinals Jackson Powers-Johnson, C/G, Oregon While Arizona has established some depth along the interior of its offensive line, it lacks blue-chip starters and true upgrades. Powers-Johnson was dominant last season as the first (and potentially last) Pac-12 player to win the Rimington Trophy (nation’s best center), but he could also play at guard. He plays with power.
Projected trade: Raiders slide up for QB6 One more trade projection here, and it’s for the last remaining quarterback I have ranked in my top 50. After missing out on the top five passers on Day 1 and knowing teams will be eyeing the QBs available here, I have the Raiders sending No. 44 and a 2025 third-rounder to the Commanders for No. 36.
36. Las Vegas Raiders (via mock trade with WSH) Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington Penix has a huge arm and threw for 4,903 yards last season. Even after signing Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O’Connell, the Raiders have to add a quarterback. Penix has an injury history (knee and shoulder), and teams will have varying levels of comfort there, but his upside is immense.
37. Los Angeles Chargers Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Jim Harbaugh wants to build up his offensive line aggressively this offseason. Frazier is super tough and exactly the type of guy Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz would covet. He did not allow any sacks over 328 pass-block plays in 2023.
38. Carolina Panthers (via mock trade with TEN) Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida The interior offensive line and pass rush have been fortified through free agency, but the Panthers are still looking to beef up the receiver room for second-year quarterback Bryce Young. Pearsall — who had 965 yards last season — is an explosive, powerful pass-catcher with a wide catch radius.
39. Carolina Panthers (via NYG) T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State Back-to-back picks here for the Panthers. Jaycee Horn is a standout corner on one half of the defense, and Tampa would be a good fit on the other side. He is long and physical in coverage, and he consistently disrupts receivers at the top of routes.
40. Washington Commanders (via CHI) Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State Washington has Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, but Coleman would add a size element (6-foot-3, 213 pounds) to this group for the Commanders’ rookie QB. His ability to win in contested-catch situations would go a long way in the red zone, and he is coming off an 11-TD season at Florida State.
41. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ) Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M The Packers’ hole at inside linebacker could make Cooper the first one off the board. His versatility is outstanding, as he can run and hit on the inside or get pressure off the edge — he notched 80 tackles and eight sacks last season.
42. Houston Texans (via MIN) Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois The Texans’ defense is shaping up to be downright dominant up front, with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. off the edge. Their presence will create pass-rush opportunities for other players, and throwing Newton — a dominant interior rusher — into the mix would only increase the defensive potency. He had 7.5 sacks last season.
43. Atlanta Falcons Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama The Falcons could continue their defensive theme early in this draft, seeking out a cornerback to play opposite of A.J. Terrell. McKinstry is dealing with a foot injury, but indications are that it will not impact his availability for training camp or the season. He had 20 pass breakups over the past two seasons.
44. Washington Commanders (via mock trade with LV) Patrick Paul, OT, Houston We got the Commanders a new quarterback (Daniels) and receiver (Coleman), but what about the protection? Washington allowed 65 sacks in 2023, tied for second-most. Paul is massive at 6-foot-7 and 332 pounds with 36-inch arms, making him a challenge to get around in pass protection. Also: He’d get to play with his older brother, Chris, a guard for Washington.
45. New Orleans Saints (via DEN) Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia The Saints restructured Marshon Lattimore’s contract late last season, fueling speculation that he could be a trade candidate this offseason. Lassiter would add depth there if such a move happened. He’s sudden, confident and capable in man coverage.
46. Indianapolis Colts Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia I loved that Colts coach Shane Steichen redefined Michael Pittman Jr.’s usage last season by featuring him a ton in the screen game. It’s easy to envision the speedy McConkey — a great runner after the catch — thriving in similar concepts from Steichen, setting him up for opportunities in space.
47. New York Giants (via SEA) Max Melton, CB, Rutgers
The Giants used a first-round pick on Deonte Banks last April but must continue to pad that cornerback depth. This pick would make for an easy commute for Melton, a New Jersey native who started four seasons at Rutgers. He has an excellent trigger back to the football and great ball skills (three interceptions in 2023).
48. Jacksonville Jaguars Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, Western Michigan The Jaguars have two front-line pass-rushers in Josh Allen and Travon Walker (who combined for 27.5 sacks last season), but depth is always critical there, and Allen is still set to play on the franchise tag for 2023. Kneeland has exceptionally powerful hands and overall strength to get home off the edge.
49. Cincinnati Bengals Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington It was tempting to take a right tackle in the first round for Cincinnati, as Trent Brown only signed for one year, but the Bengals can still land talent at the position on Day 2. The steady Rosengarten served as Washington’s right tackle, allowing zero sacks over 28 career starts.
50. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO) Payton Wilson, LB, NC State I’m not going to go as far as saying a new era is upon us in Philly, but after the team broke the bank for a running back in Saquon Barkley in free agency, it’s fair to envision the Eagles also adjusting their draft strategy around linebackers and taking one on the first two days. Wilson has incredible film, posting 130 tackles in 2023, but questions surrounding knee and shoulder injuries would factor into him falling to this spot. I love his game, though.
51. Pittsburgh Steelers Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan The Steelers will likely target a wide receiver early in the draft, and Wilson has excellent route running skills, extremely reliable hands and elite speed (4.39 in the 40). Be it Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center, pairing Wilson — who had 12 touchdowns in 2023 — with George Pickens would help this offense.
52. Los Angeles Rams Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State I am a huge fan of Fiske’s game — he is a ball of disruption who lives behind the line of scrimmage. While Fiske lacks elite size and length (292 pounds and 31-inch arms), he consistently blows up plays. He had six sacks and 10 run stops last season.
53. Philadelphia Eagles Cole Bishop, S, Utah Another secondary addition for Philly, as the Eagles will continue their defensive overhaul after a disappointing finish to the 2023 season. Bishop is my top-rated safety. He ran a 4.42 at the combine, has very good man-to-man coverage skills and is an excellent blitzer for the position.
54. Cleveland Browns Trey Benson, RB, Florida State Our first running back! Benson would have a chance for a massive role from jump street in Cleveland, as Nick Chubb’s availability is unclear (leg injury) for the start of the 2024 regular season, and Jerome Ford was solid but not spectacular filling in. Benson has excellent speed (4.39), is a forced missed tackle waiting to happen and shows very good pass-game traits.
55. Miami Dolphins Christian Haynes, G, UConn The Dolphins lost Robert Hunt in free agency, opening a significant gap along the offensive line. Enter Haynes, an experienced guard (49 starts) who plays with a serious edge to his game. I think he’d be an ideal fit in the Miami offense.
56. Dallas Cowboys Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas It feels like a foregone conclusion that the Cowboys will take a back at some point in the draft after losing Tony Pollard this offseason. Brooks probably wouldn’t still be available if he had not torn his ACL back in early November, but Dallas is unafraid of taking swings on Day 2. Brooks has excellent vision and balance, and he can be a factor in the passing game.
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cooper Beebe, G, Kansas State If you’re looking for versatility, toughness and strength, Beebe is a good target. The Buccaneers like versatile offensive linemen who are big but also mobile, and Beebe proved at the combine that he fits that profile. Be it at guard or right tackle, he has a lengthy highlight reel of quality college tape.
58. Green Bay Packers Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State The Packer signed Xavier McKinney, but they also lost two safeties in free agency (Darnell Savage and Jonathan Owens), leaving some work left to do at the position. Hicks would bring range, versatility and playmaking traits to the table for new coordinator Jeff Hafley.
59. Houston Texans Junior Colson, LB, Michigan When this mock draft originally published Wednesday morning, I had Houston taking Western Kentucky receiver Malachi Corley, but the Stefon Diggs trade now checks that box. So I’m pivoting to Colson, who is super tough and fits with Houston. (After all, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans played linebacker and wants playmakers at the position.) Colson had 101 tackles last season.
60. Buffalo Bills Maason Smith, DT, LSU The Bills could take another receiver given their lack of depth, but they should also be bulking up their defensive tackle group, so I have them taking Smith here late in Round 2. He looked like a budding star as a true freshman in 2021, but a torn ACL in 2022 washed out his season, and he spent 2023 getting back to form. Smith has great physical traits — including a 6-foot-5 frame and long arms — and has a chance to develop into an unblockable pass-rusher.
61. Detroit Lions Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington The Lions could certainly consider an edge defender at this point, but the draft’s overall depth at that position is not great. Receiver feels like a potential hole opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown, especially after Josh Reynolds signed with Denver. Polk isn’t a burner (4.53 in the 40 at the combine), but he has an excellent catch radius and is tough. He finished 2023 with 1,159 receiving yards.
62. Baltimore Ravens Adisa Isaac, EDGE, Penn State The Ravens need help at pass-rusher, since Jadeveon Clowney signed in Carolina and Kyle Van Noy is still unsigned. The explosive Isaac had 7.5 sacks last season, and his 16.8% pressure rate ranked seventh in the nation.
63. San Francisco 49ers Theo Johnson, TE, Penn State The race to be the second tight end off the board feels wide open, with Jared Wiley (TCU) and Ja’Tavion Sanders (Texas) also in the mix. Johnson was not used enough at Penn State (48 targets last season), but his upside is very intriguing. San Francisco showed that it wants a reserve tight end behind George Kittle when it tries to sign restricted free agent Brock Wright away from the Lions, and Johnson feels like a good fit.
64. Kansas City Chiefs Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon Signing Marquise Brown isn’t enough for the Chiefs, especially since it was a one-year deal. Franklin can flat-out fly, and there were times during the 2023 regular season when the Chiefs’ offense got condensed because of their lack of a consistent vertical presence. Franklin averaged 17.1 yards per catch in his final season at Oregon. |