The Daily Briefing Thursday, April 6, 2023

NFC EAST

DALLAS

WRs BRANDIN COOKS and CEEDEE LAMB are looking forward to playing with each other.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Newly arrived Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks and last year’s No. 1 receiver CeeDee Lamb don’t see themselves as competing for catches.

Cooks says he reached out to Lamb when he was traded and they’re both on the same page about what kind of passing game they can create with Dak Prescott.

“CeeDee, you’re talking about a guy that’s been electric since the moment he stepped into this league but you at last year what he did to really just go into that mode of a true No. 1 receiver,” Cooks said on Adam Schefter’s podcast, via the Dallas Morning News. “I’ve got a lot of respect for his game from afar and I hit him up and was like, ‘Look, I’m coming to just help.’ Like, there’s no ego. And same thing with Michael Gallup. And then you talk about Dak, his competitive nature, the way that he goes about his work, you hear about it from teammates or ex-teammates, the way that he carries himself, I’m truly excited to be able to play with a guy that who is hungry to get better.”

Lamb was targeted on 156 passes last season, by far the most of his career, but if he gets fewer targets this season because Cooks is around, he’ll be OK with that as long as the Cowboys are winning.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

GM Jason Licht loves what he has seen from RB RACHAAD WHITE.  JoeBucsFan:

Head coach Todd Bowles and offensive coordiantor Dave Canales are big believers in sharing the load at running back.

There aren’t many Derrick Henrys and Jonathan Taylors to go around the league. Teams need mulitple quality backs, yet many still sit on the free agent market.

Joe asked Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht about this phenomenon last week at the NFL Annual Meeting in Phoenix. Joe only asked about the NFL trend, but Licht shared firm thoughts about the Bucs’ running backs stable.

JoeBucsFan.com: It seems like there are a lot of good, quality running backs sitting on the market, presumably their price will come down eventually. Can you talk about why you think that is — that it’s a trend in the NFL with a lot of good running backs available?

Bucs GM Jason Licht: I think it’s a good running back draft; I think that has a little to do with it. Just more and more teams — I don’t want to speak on behalf of us —  but there’s just more and more teams now that don’t believe in paying running backs. So we really like our group, really like our group. We think Rachaad [White] is going to be a stud. We really like Ke’Shawn [Vaughn]. We’ve always liked Ke’Shawn. I know he’s been with us for three years, but he really hasn’t gotten opportunities. When he has, he’s done some good things. And we got Chase [Edmonds signed in free agency]. I’m not saying we’re done there, but we like the room that we got now.

Joe is very intrigued by the Ke’Shawn Vaughn X-factor, and Joe still doesn’t understand why Vaughn wasn’t given a shot last season when the entire running game was struggling.

It seems that Licht might feel the same way.

Against the Eagles in the playoffs two seasons ago, Vaughn rushed 17 times for 53 yards and 1 touchdown, and he caught both balls thrown his way. It was a solid day against a strong run defense, but then Vaughn disappared with just 17 carries all of last season.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers think they can do some draft damage with the third round picks (and lower) that they get from the comp pick formula.  David Lombardi of The Athletic:

The 49ers own only two of their originally scheduled picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. They’ve traded the rest of those selections.

Despite that, the 49ers have 11 draft picks in 2023, the second-most in the league. Two other trades and the procurement of seven compensatory selections — the maximum allowed, per NFL rules — have replenished their cupboard.

It’s the fruit of a concerted roster recharging strategy that the 49ers have worked to implement since 2017, when general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan assumed their respective positions. The 49ers have earned 12 comp picks over the last two draft cycles and are projected to bring in five more in 2024. They’re likely to own a whopping 17 total comp picks over a three-year span.

“You look at the well-run organizations,” Lynch told The Athletic at last week’s annual league meeting. “Some of the people play this (comp-pick) game and play it really well. Baltimore was always one that did it extremely well. New England was doing it. We felt like once we could get to a position, we’d love to figure it out. And we had a lot of smart people who we felt could help us figure it out and figure out how to do it well.”

It’s safe to say that the 49ers are now operating on or above the Ravens’ and Patriots’ level in the department of comp-pick procurement. It’s even more interesting to examine how the 49ers have built this system since it’s an integral part of their strategy to build a sustainably strong roster under the NFL’s salary cap, which makes doing so challenging.

Key 1: Building compensatory capital

The NFL awards compensatory picks through two avenues.

One involves a formula that balances players added and lost in free agency to award teams who’ve lost more qualifying players — this depends on contract size — with an applicable amount of picks. A team can earn a maximum of four comp picks annually this way.

The other avenue is the league’s minority hiring incentive, which awards two third-round comp picks spread across two years to teams that see a minority assistant coach or lower-level executive hired to be the head coach or general manager elsewhere. A team can earn a maximum of three comp picks annually through this route. Since 2021, the 49ers have lost Robert Saleh, Mike McDaniel and DeMeco Ryans to head coaching jobs, as well as Martin Mayhew to the Commanders’ general manager job and Ran Carthon to the Titans’ GM job. As a result, they have three third-round comp picks this year, the maximum amount a team can acquire in a single year through this route.

The 49ers were generally devoid of talent that could factor positively into the player compensatory formula in 2017, so jumpstarting the process of acquiring comp picks took time when Lynch and Shanahan assumed their roles. The 49ers also couldn’t earn picks by developing coaches and executives because that didn’t become a possibility until 2020, when the NFL passed Resolution JC-2A to establish the minority hiring incentive.

The 49ers earned just one comp pick in 2017. It came because they didn’t retain guard Alex Boone, who’d played for the previous regime. The team then had zero comp picks in 2018.

Lynch and Shanahan relied on their standard draft picks to build a roster over their first two years. They also signed a boatload of players. Bad teams typically have loads of cap space, and the 49ers weren’t shy about spending it.

“Our actions didn’t really reflect (amassing comp picks) early on,” Lynch said. “I think we had some things to do first. Remember our first picture in free agency, we had 15 people up there. Our thing was, we had to improve this roster.”

49ers total comp picks through the years

2017    1

2018    0

2019    3

2020    1

2021    1

2022    4

2023    7

2024    5

The initial building process led to an inflection point in 2019. The 49ers went to the Super Bowl that season on the fuel of a suddenly loaded roster. And it’s no coincidence that comp picks began trickling in at that time because the 49ers finally had players on expiring contracts who were good enough to sign elsewhere on deals that could benefit the team’s compensatory formula.

Then, that first trickle grew into a flood of incoming comp picks by 2022.

Key 2: Meticulous discipline to build and sustain the 49ers’ A-list core

Success in the NFL is typically pricey, especially over an extended stretch.

With the exception of first-round picks, whose contracts come with fifth-year options, cost-controlled rookie deals only last four years. Star tight end George Kittle, for example, cost the 49ers only about $1 million per season on the relatively inexpensive contract that had been slotted for his position as a fifth-round pick in 2017. But Kittle’s price tag shot up to $15 million per year when he signed a big contract extension in 2020.

That represented the chief hurdle in the way of roster sustainability.

“We drafted some players, like the Kittles of the world, who became a top player,” Lynch said. “So, just as a matter of reality, you can’t do that and continue to bring more guys in. When you’re paying Trent Williams top money, Deebo (Samuel) top money, Fred Warner — that’s just the reality. You have to show some restraint. There has to be some give. And I think the give for us has been to be able to let people walk.”

That principle is no secret to other NFL teams. The Patriots’ dynastic formula put a large emphasis on letting higher-priced players sign elsewhere. But it’s a strategy that’s more easily illustrated than executed.

The 49ers have implemented their own version of it by essentially classifying some players — Kittle, Williams, Samuel, Warner and edge rusher Nick Bosa, who’s expected to receive a massive extension this offseason — as A-list talent who are worth retaining at premium money.

Ideally, the 49ers would like to see their core of high-paid star power grow every season, since that’s a natural byproduct of good drafting and development. And outside of a one-year downward blip due to 2020’s economic downturn, the NFL’s salary cap — which is tied to league revenues — has consistently increased on an annual basis. So in theory, the 49ers believe they can sustainably keep the rising costs of a growing A-list core within the bounds of that climbing cap.

What the 49ers can’t do is pay all of their free agents, since new contracts for them are significantly pricier than cost-controlled draft picks. So the team must delineate between great players and good-but-presumably-replaceable ones. They can re-sign those in the former group, but they’re committed to letting those in the latter category walk if their asking price exceeds a strictly predetermined amount.

Setting that price is a complex endeavor that involves sorting through future cap projections (unused space carries over from season to season). The 49ers’ raw spending power is certainly a useful cap management tool, as are the NFL’s two mid-level exceptions — the veteran salary benefit and the four-year qualifying player offer. All of those techniques are explored in greater depth here.

Executive vice president of football operations Paraag Marathe, vice president of football administration Brian Hampton and salary-cap manager Jeff Diamond are key drivers of this process.

“We’ve been very upfront,” Lynch said. “We’ve done a lot over the past couple years where we told people out of necessity — players want to play for us, but we can’t get over this threshold if it gets over a certain amount. And (Marathe, Hampton, Diamond and their team) do a lot of research behind the scenes to see where are those levels that we can’t go above with contracts. So we’ve done a lot of well-thought-out, ‘This is our threshold.’ And if we can be creative within that, we can get something done.”

The 49ers unexpectedly managed one extra year of defensive tackle D.J. Jones in 2021 using the cost-saving four-year qualifying player offer. With it, he fit under their price threshold. A year later, Jones exceeded it, signing with Denver on a deal worth $10 million annually. The 49ers also lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey to the Broncos last month, as San Francisco was unwilling to match a new contract that’s worth up to $87.5 million.

Both of those departures will end up earning the 49ers a comp pick. They own a fifth-rounder in the 2023 draft thanks to Jones and are projected to net a third-rounder in the 2024 draft from McGlinchey’s departure.

The 49ers believe they have the scouting and coaching infrastructure in place to replace that lost production with a combination of bargain free-agent signings and the mid-to-late round picks that compensate for big-money veteran exits.

“As part of that strategy, on our D-line for instance, you’ve got to let the Charles Omenihus walk,” Lynch said, referencing the edge rusher who recently signed with Kansas City for $8 million annually. “But we also have a nice reality: A lot of guys have come in here on one-year deals and have been able to really thrive. Whether it was Kerry Hyder leaving and coming back, Omenihu — there’s a long list of guys who have done that.

“It’s kind of our roster-building strategy. Samson Ebukam was a really big part of our culture, so it was really hard to let that guy walk. But at least you know you get something in return if you do it. And the reality is you can’t re-sign everybody. We’ve got a lot of really good players.”

Said York last week: “I think that’s something that we’ve always strived for. I give a lot of credit to Paraag and his team for how we do our contracts, how we approach the salary cap and knowing that comp picks — as much as you would like to re-sign people — you can’t re-sign everybody. If you’re going to let people go, do you want to sign somebody else and maybe cost yourself a third or fourth-round pick? You just have to ask yourself that question before you make decisions in free agency.

“And I think we’ve done really well in those third, fourth and fifth rounds — so those are very valuable picks for us.”

And therein lies perhaps the ultimate key of this entire intricate process: the ability to squeeze inordinate value from limited resources. The 49ers aren’t slated to pick until No. 99 of this upcoming draft, so traditional pick value charts like the one below suggest that they don’t have a whole lot of draft capital — even with those 11 selections.

But the ability to score in the mid-to-late rounds serves as the great equalizer here. Kittle was a fifth-rounder, as was linebacker Dre Greenlaw, whom Lynch actually drafted in 2019 after using one of the regime’s first comp picks to trade up. The 49ers also selected All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga in 2021’s fifth round. He came via a comp pick that the 49ers acquired after letting receiver Emmanuel Sanders walk in 2020’s round of free agency.

Comp picks come anywhere from the third to the seventh rounds, and the 49ers have demonstrated that every single one of them has potential to blossom into big-time value. They picked quarterback Brock Purdy, after all, with the very last selection of the 2022 draft — a comp pick awarded for QB C.J. Beathard’s 2021 departure in free agency.

The edge is in the margins, and the 49ers believe the best way to gain that advantage — and sustainably stay under the salary cap — is by collaborating to unearth value in the cracks.

“It all adds up,” Lynch said. “It all counts. I think we’ve got a really good group. Paraag, obviously. The Brian Hamptons, the Jeff Diamonds — these guys put a lot of time in. The one thing we have done well, we’re all in these draft meetings together — including those guys.

“The cap guys are in draft meetings, free agency meetings. Because they’re part of this strategy. And the only way for them to be on the same page as us is to invite them in. So it’s worked really well.”

Early in Lynch’s tenure, York gave the new GM a hard time.

“Are we ever going to get a comp pick?” York quipped, according to Lynch.

“It’s coming,” Lynch promised in response.

Those comp picks are here in full force now. The 49ers have seven of them, and since the team only has about $3 million of 2023 cap space left, they’ll be key to finishing the offseason roster replenishment effort at the NFL Draft later this month.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com thinks there might be a post-draft market for QB LAMAR JACKSON:

More than two weeks into free agency, no one has shown any interest in pursuing Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is subject to the non-exclusive franchise tag. With four weeks to go until the draft, it’s likely that any potentially interested team(s) will wait.

Beyond the Colts, who are currently the only viable option (and it’s not clear how viable they are), there could be teams that are discreetly evaluating quarterbacks in the draft. If one or more of those teams don’t land the quarterback they covet, the Plan B could be a run at Lamar Jackson.

Any team that is thinking about drafting a quarterback and that doesn’t want its interest to be known prematurely would be wise to shy away from being tied to Jackson, in any way. If that team shows interest in Jackson, it would be flagged as a team eyeballing a quarterback — which could get that team leapfrogged in round one.

One of the teams that could be secretly looking at quarterbacks is the Ravens. Five years ago, no one knew they were thinking about drafting Lamar Jackson until they did. Sitting at No. 22, maybe they’re thinking about picking Lamar’s replacement. And if they get a quarterback in round one, they could suddenly become motivated to trade Jackson.

At this point, it makes no sense for any team to be candid about their plans. For teams that may be secretly thinking about drafting a quarterback, it makes no sense to consider trying to acquire Jackson until after the draft comes and goes and they don’t get the guy they want.

So, basically, don’t expect much to happen over the next four weeks.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on the Bills’ new stadium deal.

NFL teams have perfected the art of getting free money from local governments to get new stadiums. NFL teams are gradually getting better at perfecting the art of maximizing their ability to do it all again, sooner than later.

John Kryk of the Toronto Sun (via Sports Business Daily) explains that the new lease signed by the Bills in Buffalo has a relocation clause less ironclad than past relocation clauses.

At issue is the liquidated damages clause, which imposes a set fee for teams that break a stadium lease early. The NFL believed that past clauses of that kind (including the one in Buffalo’s most recent lease) was too strict, because the amount didn’t decline and approach zero over time.

This lease does, making it similar to long-term leases signed by the likes of the 49ers and Vikings when opening their own new venues within the past decade.

It’s a quiet win for the teams that secure these provisions. Whether the goal is to use the possibility of breaking the lease and writing the check becomes leverage for renovations, upgrades, or a new building — or whether it simply gives the NFL the flexibility to move teams to more desirable markers (including European) — the league emerges from the transactions with great deals on both ends.

A lot of free money pocketed on the way in, and not much money paid on the way out.

NEW ENGLAND

Add the Patriots to the list of teams that may defy the experts and draft RB BIJAN ROBINSON in the first round.  Mark Daniels of MassLive.com:

The Patriots are clearly looking to upgrade their offense through the 2023 NFL Draft. However, it appears the team is looking to upgrade a position that people aren’t expecting.

We’re not even through the first week in April and the team is already connected to four wide receiver prospects who are all projected to go in the first round – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (met at Pro Day), Zay Flowers (official visit), Quentin Johnston (met at Pro Day) and Jordan Addison (official visit). The Patriots are also showing pre-draft interest in top tackle prospects Paris Johnson Jr. (met at the Combine and Pro Day) as well as Broderick Jones (official visit).

None of that is surprising as tackle and receiver are among the Patriots top needs. However, it appears the team could also be targeting their running back position in this year’s draft.

According to Jeff Howe of The Athletic, the Patriots are “building the running game around Rhamondre Stevenson and have quietly shown interest in adding another blue-chip back in the draft.”

Howe later tweeted, “The Patriots are absolutely intrigued by Bijan Robinson.”

When it comes to running back prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft, the only two true blue-chip prospects are Robinson, from Texas, and Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs. Robinson, however, is the bell of the ball. He’s the only running back in this draft who’s considered to be a first-round prospect.

This isn’t the first time that Robinson has been connected to the Patriots, either. Two weeks ago, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mocked Robinson to the Patriots in the first round.

“The Patriots don’t think like every other franchise. I believe they could see Robinson as a valuable addition instead of a player at a non-premium position,” Jeremiah wrote. “He would team up with Rhamondre Stevenson to give New England one of the best backfields in the NFL.”

Robinson won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. He ran for 1,580 yards to go with 18 touchdowns. He has drawn comparisons to Saquon Barkley and projects as a Pro Bowl running back. If the Patriots want to draft him, they’d likely have to use their 14th overall selection.

Gibbs is projected to be drafted in the second round. He played for new Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien last year at Alabama. Gibbs ran for 926 yards with seven touchdowns. He’s drawn comparisons to Alvin Kamara due to his receiving skills. Gibbs led Alabama with 44 receptions to go with 444 yards last year in O’Brien’s offense.

Of course, the Patriots have a promising running back on their roster in Stevenson, who ran for 1,040 yards with five touchdowns last year. He also led the Patriots with 69 receptions to go with 421 receiving yards. The Pats have also added veteran running back James Robinson this offseason. The team also drafted two backs last year in Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris. The team also returns Ty Montgomery.

Even as Bill Belichick may be trying to clear the decks for QB BAILEY ZAPPE.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

No, things aren’t going well between Patriots coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Mac Jones.

Following the posting of the item regarding the lingering tension between coach Bill Belichick and the 2021 first-rounder, more information has trickled in.

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Belichick has shopped Jones to multiple teams during the 2023 offseason.

The full list of potential destinations isn’t known. The teams mentioned as potential destinations were the Raiders, Texans, Buccaneers, and Commanders.

Obviously, a trade hasn’t occurred yet. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. A team hoping to draft a quarterback could pivot to Jones, if that team doesn’t get the guy it wants.

The Raiders are the ones to keep watching. Jimmy Garoppolo‘s contract lands in the low-end of middle class for starters, and Jones has two years left under a slotted rookie deal, before his fifth-year option would apply.

Complicating the situation is the fact that owner Robert Kraft seems to be a big fan of Mac Jones.

“I’m a big fan of Mac,” Kraft told reporters last week. “He came to us as a rookie. He quarterbacked in his rookie season and did a very fine job I thought. We made the playoffs. I think we experimented with some things last year that frankly didn’t work when it came to him, in my opinion.”

While Kraft continues to defer to Belichick when it comes to running  “my football team,” Kraft may not be thrilled about the prospect of parting ways with Jones. And Kraft seems to be sympathetic to frustrations that trace to the failed offensive experiment in 2022, with Matt Patricia serving as the coordinator.

THIS AND THAT

FREE AGENCY 2024

All of 2023’s free agents have not signed, but David DeChant of The Athletic takes a look at who might be available next year.

The goal here is twofold: To look at the best players who might become available and to explore the biggest contract questions facing teams this offseason.

First-round picks from the 2020 class were not included, as teams have until May 2 to decide on their fifth-year options for 2024. All stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted, with contract information from Over the Cap. Ages as of Week 1 of the 2023 season are listed in parentheses.

1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (26)

2. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (25)

Let’s lump these two together, as they are very difficult to separate.

Jackson’s contract situation has dominated this offseason, and it could be months (or longer) before it is resolved. The Ravens haven’t given Jackson the deal he wants, and other teams haven’t shown significant interest to this point, but that shouldn’t reflect poorly on Jackson the player.

Durability is the biggest concern for perhaps the NFL’s most electric runner after he missed the final five games of 2021 and 2022, and it’s the primary reason I considered Hurts at No. 1. But Jackson didn’t miss a game because of injury through his first three seasons (he rested the 2019 finale and missed a 2020 game because of COVID-19). Hurts has missed three games because of injury in three seasons, including two in 2022. Both players’ styles put them at risk.

Hurts was the MVP runner-up in 2022, but Jackson won the award unanimously in 2019 and has clearly been the better passer: In four seasons as a full-time starter, Jackson ranks ninth in EPA per dropback (includes sacks and scrambles but not designed runs) and 13th in EPA per pass attempt (excludes sacks and rush attempts). In two seasons as a full-time starter, Hurts ranks 13th and 19th, respectively. He took a huge leap in 2022 by ranking ninth in both categories, but Jackson ranked first and second in his MVP season.

Running the ball, they’re neck and neck. Since 2019, Jackson narrowly leads in rush EPA per game, and Hurts narrowly leads in EPA per rush, with Jackson averaging 2.5 more carries per game.

Yes, Hurts is 19 months younger, is perhaps still ascending, has drawn rave reviews for his leadership and nearly helped his team to a Lombardi Trophy. But his body of work is smaller, and he’s had far better help, playing in a versatile scheme led by an aggressive coach, behind the league’s best offensive line and throwing to an excellent set of weapons. Jackson’s legs were showcased in Greg Roman’s offense, but he’s had to carry a passing game that has been limited by scheme and middling receivers.

Jackson will have a new coordinator in 2023, whether that’s in Baltimore with Todd Monken or somewhere else — or maybe he’ll consider sitting out the entire season. Hurts, meanwhile, should cash in with a deal worth at least $46 million annually, perhaps any day.

3. Nick Bosa, edge, 49ers (25)

As difficult as it was separating Nos. 1 and 2, No. 3 was a breeze. Bosa easily won Defensive Player of the Year honors (46 of 50 first-place votes) in 2022 after leading the NFL with 18 1/2 sacks and 48 QB hits. The gap in QB hits between Bosa and second-place Maxx Crosby (36) matched the gap between Crosby and three players tied in 14th. Bosa’s 18.8 percent pressure rate trailed only Micah Parsons (19.3) among players with at least 300 pass-rush snaps.

Bosa will likely become the first edge rusher to sign a contract worth $30 million annually. The question is whether he will surpass Aaron Donald ($31.67 million annually) as the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history.

4. Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (29)

After Daron Payne set the table, a host of defensive tackles are about to cash in. Jones is the oldest player in our top 16, but his dominance warrants this spot. He’s coming off his best season, tying for second in the NFL in sacks (15 1/2) and ranking third in QB hits (29) while playing a career-high 916 snaps (80 percent).

Since he entered the NFL in 2016, Jones’ pressure rate is identical to Donald’s (14.5 percent) and more than a full percentage point ahead of the next defensive tackle. He’s durable (eight games missed in seven seasons), can line up anywhere and presents schematic problems for opposing run games as a gap-shooter. Jones’ next contract — and the rest of the defensive tackle market — might be shaped by who signs first and who waits.

5. Dexter Lawrence, DT, Giants (25)

6. Quinnen Williams, DT, Jets (25)

It’s incredibly hard to separate Nos. 4, 5 and 6, but especially 5 and 6, as both became dominant players in New York last season. Williams trumped Lawrence for first-team All-Pro honors alongside Jones in 2022, but we’re flipping them here by the tiniest of margins.

Lawrence is a unicorn. At 342 pounds, he played 864 defensive snaps (82 percent!) last season. That ranked fourth among players listed over 300 pounds. None of the others in the top 10 were above 320 pounds. Among players over 325, none played more than 600 defensive snaps. Williams (listed at 303) played 690.

Despite his workload, Lawrence was one of the league’s most efficient pass rushers and run stoppers. His pressure rate (12.9 percent) and QB hits (28) both equaled Williams, with the latter figure tied for fourth among all players. That pass-rush production is unheard of for a man of Lawrence’s size — by comparison, Vita Vea (347 pounds) has 44 QB hits in 64 career games, has a career pressure rate of 11.3 percent and has never played more than 750 snaps in a season.

Williams trumped Lawrence comfortably in sacks (12 to 7 1/2), but Lawrence had 52 tackles against the run (tied for 10th among defensive linemen) to 38 for Williams. In their careers, Williams has 27 1/2 sacks and 60 QB hits to Lawrence’s 16 1/2 and 58, but Lawrence leads in pressure rate (10.2 to 10.1).

The margin is razor thin, so I wouldn’t complain if you flipped them. One thing is clear: Both should eclipse Payne’s $22.5 million annual average.

7. Brian Burns, edge, Panthers (25)

It feels like Burns hasn’t quite reached his ceiling, which is wild for a two-time Pro Bowler coming off career highs with 12 1/2 sacks and 22 quarterback hits. An incredible athlete, Burns has been a popular preseason pick for Defensive Player of the Year in recent seasons, and the Panthers clearly think he can get there.

Carolina turned down two first-round picks from the Rams for Burns at the 2022 trade deadline, then wouldn’t include him in the trade with Chicago for the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft (opting to send wideout D.J. Moore instead). That sort of faith should be followed by a massive extension — likely at least $24 million annually — this offseason.

8. Jeffery Simmons, DT, Titans (26)

A year ago, Simmons looked like the best defensive tackle from the 2019 class, ahead of Williams and Lawrence, but he falls a shade shy here. The marginal difference is about pass rush: Simmons has 16 sacks and 30 QB hits since 2021 but lags somewhat in pressure rate (9.7 percent in 2022, 9.0 in his career). That’s no slight, though. Simmons is still a borderline elite interior rusher and one of the league’s best run defenders. He should also eclipse Payne’s deal.

9. Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals (24)

Since 2021, 143 players have run at least 500 routes. Only 12 have averaged more yards per route than Higgins (2.09): Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, Tyler Lockett and Mark Andrews. That’s basically a list of the NFL’s best pass catchers.

After the wide receiver market erupted last offseason, Higgins could be seeking $25 million annually, which will be a lot for the Bengals to manage with extensions for Joe Burrow (this offseason) and Chase (in 2024 or 2025) coming soon.

10. Rashan Gary, edge, Packers (25)

Gary has never produced a 10-sack season and is coming off a torn ACL. So why is he this high? Since the start of 2021, he’s been a terrifying pass rusher, posting 15 1/2 sacks, 40 QB hits and an 18.9 percent pressure rate — second-best among edge rushers (Micah Parsons, 20.8) in that span — in 25 games.

That trajectory puts him in position for a contract worth well north of $20 million annually. We’ll see if the Packers have any hesitation paying Gary, who doesn’t turn 26 until December, after his injury. If they let him play out the final year of his contract, he would be a likely franchise-tag candidate.

11. Montez Sweat, edge, Commanders (27)

Sweat also doesn’t have a 10-sack season, but he’s coming off career highs in QB hits (28) and pressure rate (14.5) and has been mostly healthy. Like Gary, he’s heading toward $20-plus million annually, but his path to the open market is clearer: Washington has already paid two defensive tackles and must decide on Chase Young’s fifth-year option. If the Commanders decline and he rebounds to his 2020 form, they could probably keep only one. Trading Sweat (or Young) seems plausible.

12. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (24)

A nagging ankle injury (which led to surgery) and a struggling Colts O-line undermined Taylor’s 2022 campaign, but his 2021 season was historic: He led the league in carries (332) and success rate (45.2) among players with 200-plus carries while posting the most rushing EPA in a season (30.7) since LaDainian Tomlinson’s MVP season in 2006 (33.4).

Christian McCaffrey ($16 million annually) and Alvin Kamara ($15 million) are the only running backs averaging more than $12.6 million, but Taylor will surely be aiming for the high end. The franchise tag seems very likely.

13. Trevon Diggs, CB, Cowboys (24)

Diggs isn’t the megastar his 11 interceptions in 2021 would suggest, but he became a more consistent cover man in 2022 despite only three interceptions. His ability to take the ball away (17 picks in three seasons) is rare, and he could see more opportunities this season with Stephon Gilmore opposite him. Only three NFL cornerbacks have annual averages of $20 million or more. Diggs might push to become the fourth.

14. Josh Allen, edge, Jaguars (26)

The No. 7 pick in 2019, Allen’s most productive season remains his rookie campaign: 10 1/2 sacks, 23 QB hits and a Pro Bowl nod. But he posted his best pressure rate (15 percent) in 2022, better than Sweat (14.5) and Burns (13.7), despite playing a career-high 894 snaps. Allen could be eyeing the five-year, $110 million deal Bradley Chubb — another top-10 pick and borderline star pass rusher — signed last fall.

15. Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Buccaneers (25)

In a league full of promising young safeties, Winfield stands out because he does so many things well. He can line up almost anywhere and drop into zone, cover man-to-man, blitz off the edge or fill against the run. He’s forced seven fumbles and recovered five in 48 games (including playoffs) but has just five interceptions, a surprisingly low total given his instincts and ball skills. Jessie Bates got $16 million annually from the Falcons, which could be Winfield’s target.

16. Danielle Hunter, edge, Vikings (28)

Hunter is an outlier on this list, having entered the league before Nos. 1-15. But the 2015 third-round pick doesn’t turn 29 until October and put two injury-plagued years behind him with an outstanding 2022 season: 10 1/2 sacks, career-high-tying 22 QB hits and a 13 percent pressure rate on a career-high 906 snaps.

Another season like that and his third contract could comfortably eclipse his second — a major bargain at five years, $72 million — though some teams might be leery of paying big money to a nine-year veteran who had neck surgery in 2020. A trade should not be ruled out after two years of swirling rumors.

17. Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings (35)

18. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans (35)

Jackson and Hurts aren’t hitting the open market. That leaves two members of the 2012 draft class, who were born less than a month apart, as the top quarterbacks potentially available. Whom you prefer might depend on scheme fit and cost.

Cousins has been the more consistent passer, averaging 0.2 EPA per attempt and 0.09 EPA per dropback in his career compared to 0.16 and 0.04 for Tannehill. Though Tannehill has the higher peak (2019 and 2020 with the Titans), he’s regressed since. He also has the edge in two-minute situations, but Cousins has been better on third down and significantly more durable.

How much would you pay for a good-not-great passer entering his late 30s? Derek Carr just turned 32 and got $150 million over four years (practically, it’s $70 million over two years, then we’ll see) from the Saints.

Barring an extension, Cousins will finish 2023 having made $185 million over six seasons with the Vikings while leaving $28.5 million in dead money when his contract expires.

19. Mike Onwenu, G, Patriots (25)

It’s rare for a sixth-round pick to play like a star right away, but Onwenu has. Aside from a bizarre benching in the second half of the 2021 season, he’s been the Patriots’ best lineman while playing three positions: right tackle (857 snaps), left guard (386) and right guard (1,183), where he settled in full-time in 2022.

In 2022, Onwenu allowed one sack and a pressure rate of 2.34 percent (14 pressures on 598 pass-blocking snaps) and tied for 14th among all O-linemen with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps. Two guards have eclipsed $20 million annually, but Onwenu might eye the four-year, $68 million deal signed by Elgton Jenkins, who has also played several positions for the Packers.

20. Christian Wilkins, DT, Dolphins (27)

Wilkins lags behind 2019 draft classmates Lawrence, Williams and Simmons as a pass rusher — 11 1/2 sacks, 27 QB hits and a 6.9 percent pressure rate in his career — but he’s a terrific disruptor against the run. His 77 tackles against the run in 2022 led all linemen by nine and all tackles by 16. He also led the league in non-sack tackles for loss (14) while playing 955 defensive snaps, the most of any 300-pounder. He has a strong case to earn $20 million-plus annually.

21. Yosh Nijman, OT, Packers (27)

Nijman is far from a household name, but he’s played left tackle (782 snaps) and right tackle (528) since 2020 at an above-average level. Those guys get paid, and paid big. He’s been best on the left, allowing three sacks and a 2.94 percent pressure rate, compared to five and 4.36, respectively, on the right. A restricted free agent this offseason, Nijman received the second-round tender (worth $4.3 million) from the Packers. He could push for $17 million or more annually on his next deal.

22. Alex Highsmith, edge, Steelers (26)

Unheralded as a third-round pick out of Charlotte, Highsmith became a quality starter in 2022 and erupted for 14 1/2 sacks, 20 QB hits and a league-high five forced fumbles in 2022. His pressure rate (11.0 percent) lagged behind others on this list, in part because of more attention during T.J. Watt’s absence (9.9 percent with Watt off the field). New GM Omar Khan has made it clear the Steelers plan to extend Highsmith, who could be targeting $16-$17 million per year.

23. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (30)

The oldest non-QB on this list, Evans still doesn’t turn 30 until August and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. He has topped 1,000 yards in all nine NFL seasons, has averaged nine touchdowns per year and is durable (nine games missed). How much might he cost? Set to hit $110 million in career earnings this season, Evans should eclipse Allen Robinson’s three-year, $46.5 million ($30.25 million guaranteed) deal with the Rams and could get substantially more.

24. Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars (28)

Our biggest wild card, Ridley hasn’t played since 2021 or been healthy since 2020. But he starred that season, totaling 90 catches for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns while ranking ninth in the NFL in yards per route (2.45) and 10th in air yards per target (14.35). No other player was in the top 14 in both categories.

If he returns from his year-long gambling suspension in good form, Ridley will be quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s top target, and a big season could lead to a contract worth more than $20 million annually. If the Jaguars sign him to an extension, it would upgrade the conditional draft pick they sent to the Falcons into a second-rounder.

25. Uchenna Nwosu, edge, Seahawks (26)

If this feels high for someone who signed a two-year, $19 million deal last spring, go watch Nwosu’s 2022 tape. After promising signs in four years as a rotational rusher with the Chargers, he broke out with 9 1/2 sacks, 26 QB hits, 61 pressures and a 14.9 percent pressure rate in 2022, ranking 20th, 12th, 16th and 16th (among players with 200 pass-rush snaps), respectively. He added 13 tackles for a loss or no gain on run plays and three forced fumbles.

26. Jonah Jackson, G, Lions (26)

A third-round pick in 2020, Jackson has been a mainstay at left guard for Detroit, earning a Pro Bowl nod in 2021 and allowing career lows of one sack, four hits and 23 pressures in 13 games last season. After Ben Powers signed for $13 million annually with the Broncos, Jackson could be seeking $15 million. The Lions have already invested in center Frank Ragnow and left tackle Taylor Decker, with Penei Sewell due for a mega-extension as soon as next offseason. Will they pay Jackson, too?

27. Leonard Williams, DT, Giants (29)

Williams has always been productive, even if he hasn’t lived up to his three-year, $63 million deal, which was the product of Williams maximizing his leverage with a career season (11 1/2 sacks, 30 QB hits) in 2020.

The No. 6 pick in 2015 was limited to 2 1/2 sacks and 12 QB hits in 12 games last season while battling a stinger, but he still managed a 9.9 percent pressure rate and won’t turn 30 until June 2024. He might wind up being a great value in a deep DT market next spring.

28. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S, Lions (25)

Gardner-Johnson’s market was cooler than expected this spring, even after he tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions in just 12 games with the Eagles, but he doesn’t turn 26 until December. The question is whether teams view him as a safety — one of the league’s deepest positions — or a nickel, where the market is much weaker.

29. Terence Steele, OT, Cowboys (26)

Like Nijman, Steele was a restricted free agent who received a second-round tender, but he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in December, dampening his value somewhat. A predominant right tackle with experience on the left side, the former undrafted free agent allowed one sack and 20 pressures on 413 pass-blocking snaps in 2022 and is an excellent run blocker. If Steele returns to form, he could command a deal in the range of $17 million annually.

30. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans (29)

Any running back approaching 30 — even Henry — doesn’t belong on this list. I should have left him off, perhaps for Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman or Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (or a younger running back like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs or even Austin Ekeler). But Henry has defied regression for so long.

Henry’s success rate dipped into the mid-30s in 2021 and 2022 after a previous career low of 40.9 percent, and he turns 30 in January. I have no idea which teams would be interested or what they’d be comfortable paying. But until he proves he can’t be the centerpiece of an offense, he makes the cut.

2023 DRAFT

It’s not quite a Mock Draft, but Matt Bowen of ESPN.com finds perfect landing spots for 15 of the top offensive prospects.

If you’re an NFL team looking to add playmakers to your offense, there will be plenty of options in the 2023 draft. The running back, wide receiver and tight end positions are all pretty deep, and there are some special prospects atop each position group.

But where could some of these players fit best in the NFL? I picked out ideal landing spots for 15 of the best offensive skill prospects, factoring in skill sets, scheme, team needs and value in this draft. All of these players are likely to come off the board somewhere in the first three rounds. Which teams make the most sense for Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Michael Mayer and other potential future stars?

RUNNING BACKS

Bijan Robinson to the Atlanta Falcons

Height: 5-foot-11 | Weight: 215

College: Texas

Where the Falcons could get him: Round 1 (No. 8 overall)

Why he fits: Robinson is one of the best overall prospects in the 2023 class, and I wouldn’t argue if some teams had him graded out as the No. 1 guy on the board based on his outstanding tape. We know he doesn’t play a premium position in terms of draft value, so it’s still very much up in the air where he actually gets picked. And maybe No. 8 ends up being too high. But I really like the fit for Robinson as the lead back in Arthur Smith’s offense.

I see him as an all-purpose playmaker — a prospect who can produce in any game situation. Simply put, he has all the traits, and it showed in his 1,580 rushing yards and 18 TDs on the ground last season at Texas. No other team ran as much as the Falcons last season (51.1% of offensive plays), so Robinson would see consistent volume in their zone-blocking schemes, while also upgrading the pass game for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder as a versatile target.

Jahmyr Gibbs to the New England Patriots

Height: 5-foot-9 | Weight: 199

College: Alabama

Where the Patriots could get him: Round 2 (No. 46 overall)

Why he fits: The Patriots have depth in the running back room with Rhamondre Stevenson, James Robinson and 2022 fourth-round pick Pierre Strong Jr. Even so, I like Gibbs here because he has a dynamic skill set that would add a playmaking element which is currently missing at the position in New England. With his 4.36 speed and formation flexibility to upgrade the pass game for new coordinator Bill O’Brien, I see Gibbs as an offensive asset for the Patriots. He can pick up big chunks on perimeter run schemes or backfield releases to give quarterback Mac Jones leveled reads.

Plus, I’d love to see Gibbs flexed outside to run unders and screens for the Pats after he caught 44 passes at Alabama in 2022. He has home-run juice, too, breaking free for 25 rushes for 10 or more yards last season. The Patriots need a jolt of speed on this side of the ball.

Devon Achane to the Cincinnati Bengals

Height: 5-foot-9 | Weight: 188

College: Texas A&M

Where the Bengals can get him: Round 3 (No. 92 overall)

Why he fits: With Samaje Perine singing in Denver and Joe Mixon’s future with the team a little cloudy at this point, Achane fits in the Bengals’ run game due to his traits and play style. The speed pops here on tape. Achane ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and he plays big despite his smaller frame. He’s decisive and determined in downhill schemes, with the perimeter ability to bounce the ball to daylight. Achane averaged 5.6 yards per carry last season. And the receiving skills are there, too — he brought down 36 catches and scored three receiving TDs in 2022.

I like the upside of Achane in Cincinnati, who can work in a backfield rotation to share touches and provide quarterback Joe Burrow with another playmaker.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the Green Bay Packers

Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 196

College: Ohio State

Where the Packers could get him: Round 1 (No. 15 overall)

Why he fits: I do think the Packers could go tight end with their first-round pick, and I thought about Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer as a fit in Green Bay. But adding Smith-Njigba — who I consider the top wide receiver in this draft class — would provide a big boost to the pass game for quarterback Jordan Love in Matt LaFleur’s system, assuming Aaron Rodgers is traded to the Jets.

Green Bay has the vertical stretch ability of Christian Watson and the developing skill set of Romeo Doubs, but Smith-Njigba could excel as a slot target, using his high-end change-of-direction speed and foot quickness to uncover as a high-percentage target for Love. He’d run the unders and crossers, hit the seams and pick up catches on slot fades. With the route detail we’ve see from Smith-Njgiba on tape, he should produce early in his rookie season on play-action and dropback concepts. He was limited to five catches last season while dealing with hamstring issues, but he totaled 1,606 receiving yards in 2021.

Zay Flowers to the Los Angeles Chargers

Height: 5-foot-9 | Weight: 182

College: Boston College

Where the Chargers could get him: Round 1 (No. 21)

Why he fits: Let’s give the Chargers and their new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore some much-needed juice on offense with Flowers. The Boston College product is a rapid accelerator in the route tree, and his play speed jumps out when watching his tape. He can create at the third level, but Flowers also has the easy movement skills and toughness to produce after the catch. He forced 25 missed tackles on catches last season, fourth-most in the FBS, and has outstanding ball carrier vision in space.

With the expectation that Moore elevates the vertical element in the pass game for quarterback Justin Herbert, Flowers is a fit as an inside/outside target, thanks to 4.42 speed and plenty of playmaking traits. Los Angeles only attempted 61 throws at least 20 yards downfield last season, 15th in the NFL. With Flowers in the mix, alongside veterans Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer, the Chargers can open things up and present a dynamic passing attack that fully utilizes the physical tools of Herbert.

Quentin Johnston to the Baltimore Ravens

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 208

College: TCU

Where the Ravens could get him: Round 1 (No. 22 overall)

Why he fits: We don’t know if Lamar Jackson will be the starting quarterback for the Ravens in 2023. But whether it is Jackson, Tyler Huntley or another veteran signal-caller taking the snaps for Baltimore, there is a big need for a boundary X target with big-play ability under new coordinator Todd Monken.

For me, that’s Johnson, a wide receiver with the physical profile and traits to win as an isolation/deep-ball target early in his rookie season. Even with Johnston’s still-developing route tree, Monken can create vertical one-on-ones for him. But he will also deploy him on in-breakers, slants and shallows to create run-after-catch opportunities. Johnston averaged 17.8 yards per catch last season and forced 24 missed tackles on his receptions, tied for the fifth-most nationally. He would give the Ravens an explosive threat to work alongside Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor and upper-tier tight end Mark Andrews.

Jordan Addison to the New York Giants

Height: 5-foot-11 | Weight: 173

College: USC

Where the Giants could get him: Round 1 (No. 25 overall)

Why he fits: Let’s continue this late-Round 1 run on wide receivers with the Giants, who are in a position to take a swing on Addison. A highly productive receiver in college, Addison has the traits to get open and make himself available to quarterback Daniel Jones. His 2,468 receiving yards over the past two seasons — the first of which at Pitt before transferring — rank second in the FBS. He’s a fluid mover with the ability to change gears in the route stem and the burst and controlled footwork to separate.

Addison fits here given his inside/outside flex in Brian Daboll’s system. He can work out of the slot, and win on the boundary and press zone windows in the middle of the field. I see a combination of schemed throws for Jones with Addison’s ability to produce on multiple-breaking routes. Addison would also add to the deep matchup-based pass game in New York after the club already traded for tight end Darren Waller and added wide receiver Parris Campbell in free agency.

Jalin Hyatt to the Seattle Seahawks

Height: 6-foot | Weight: 176

College: Tennessee

Where the Seahawks could get him: Round 2 (No. 37 overall)

Why he fits: Hyatt would add a true vertical element from both slot and boundary alignments in Seattle’s 11 personnel sets to mesh with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash at the combine, but he plays even faster on the grass. And his tape against Alabama this past season — where Hyatt racked up five touchdowns on six receptions — shows his ability to stretch defenses and produce at the third level of the field. He averaged 18.9 yards per catch last season on his way to 1,267 receiving yards and 15 touchdown catches.

With Hyatt bringing even more speed and big-play ability to the pass game for quarterback Geno Smith, the Seahawks could see more two-deep shells. That would open up the run front for Kenneth Walker III and impact the offense there, too.

Josh Downs to the Tennessee Titans

Height: 5-foot-9 | Weight: 171

College: North Carolina

Where the Titans could get him: Round 2 (No. 41 overall)

Why he fits: This Titans’ offense needs more playmakers and overall juice in the route tree, so I like fitting Downs with them in the second round. He’s an explosive slot receiver who can be schemed as a motion/movement player.

Yes, as long as Derrick Henry is in the mix, the Titans will tend to be more run-heavy on the call sheet. I get it. But adding Downs to pair with 2022 first-rounder Treylon Burks will boost the pass game for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. This is where the Titans can expand their route system — especially on dropback throws — and create stress on opposing defenses at multiple levels with two targets who have catch-and-run ability. Tennessee only threw the ball 435 times last season, 29th-lowest in the NFL, so adding a dynamic receiver who caught 11 TD passes in 2022 should help improve that part of the offense.

Marvin Mims to the Houston Texans

Height: 5-foot-11 | Weight: 183

College: Oklahoma

Where the Texans could get him: Round 3 (No. 65 overall)

Why he fits: With the expectation that Houston drafts a quarterback at No. 2 overall, DeMeco Ryans has to look for a wide receiver with big-play chops and run-after-catch ability. That’s Mims, who can play inside or outside in a pro system. While his college route tree will need to expand against NFL defenses, Mims has the 4.38 speed to get over the top of safeties on vertical throws. His 20.1 yards per catch ranked third in the country last season.

Mims can also lift the secondary, opening up intermediate windows on schemed concepts. And with so many crossers and over routes in today’s NFL, Mims can be set up to run away from man coverage. The Oklahoma product has the traits to complement Nico Collins and Robert Woods well in Houston.

Jonathan Mingo to the Minnesota Vikings

Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 220

College: Ole Miss

Where the Vikings could get him: Round 3 (No. 87 overall)

Why he fits: After the departure of veteran Adam Thielen, the Vikings could add someone like Mingo to the wide receiver room on Day 2 of the draft. And I really like the fit for him in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, given Mingo’s powerful frame, route detail and production after the catch.

The Vikings can create free access off the ball for Mingo with motion and creative formations, giving him targets on rhythm throws from quarterback Kirk Cousins. That’d provide schemed voids that also put Mingo in a position to get loose after the catch, where he averaged 7.4 yards after the reception in 2022. Finally, Mingo would have the slot flexibility in Minnesota’s system to fit well with the Vikings premier targets Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

TIGHT ENDS

Michael Mayer to the Dallas Cowboys

Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 249

College: Notre Dame

Where the Cowboys could get him: Round 1 (No. 26 overall)

Why he fits: Drafting Mayer would fill a need on the Dallas roster with veteran Dalton Schultz leaving for the Texans in free agency. Mayer also fits in Mike McCarthy’s offense as a tight end with the receiving and blocking traits to impact the game plan. McCarthy could scheme Mayer for quarterback Dak Prescott on play-action and boot, with Mayer running unders and crossers.

In short, the Cowboys could utilize the tight end on the classic pro route tree, which caters to Mayer’s game based on his college tape. Think middle-of-the-field quick seams, sticks and sit routes. That’s where Mayer — who finished third among FBS tight ends last season with 809 yards — can use his strong frame in the high traffic areas to move the chains for Prescott and the Dallas offense.

Darnell Washington to the Cincinnati Bengals

Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 264

College: Georgia

Where the Bengals could get him: Round 1 (No. 28 overall)

Why he fits: Let’s give quarterback Joe Burrow an upside target in Washington, a tight end with the physical traits to develop into a dominant run blocker and create mismatches in the pass game. He can use his size and power to seal the edge on outside zone run schemes or move defenders off the ball in gap schemes. And with his 4.64 speed and long frame, Washington has the potential to produce as a second-level option for Burrow while also creating conflict for linebackers and safeties in the red zone. He has post-up ability to dig out space in the end zone.

Adding Washington would fill a need for the Bengals after the departure of Hayden Hurst. The arrow is pointing up on the Georgia tight end, despite middling numbers last season while playing behind Brock Bowers.

Dalton Kincaid to the Las Vegas Raiders

Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 246

College: Utah

Where the Raiders could get him: Round 2 (No. 38 overall)

Why he fits: The Raiders added Austin Hooper in free agency, and he’ll be the in-line tight end in Josh McDaniels’ offense. But I think the Raiders could still use a true seam-stretcher like Kincaid, who can work all three levels of the route tree and has catch-and-run ability. That’s where I see McDaniels deploying Kincaid as a flex target in both 12 and 11 personnel, with the play-action concepts opening up those voids for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kincaid could get loose on trap passes, boots and clear-and-replace schemes, and he can win one-on-one with the catch radius to climb the ladder and finish.

Kincaid has the receiving skills to go in the first round, but if he does slide a bit, I like the idea of the Raiders adding a pass-catching asset to replace Waller. Only Georgia’s Bowers had more receiving yards among tight ends last season than his 890.

Sam LaPorta to the Jacksonville Jaguars

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 245

College: Iowa

Where the Jaguars could get him: Round 2 (No. 56 overall)

Why he fits: Doug Pederson could add LaPorta to pair with Evan Engram in the Jags’ 12 personnel sets. LaPorta has the lower-body flexibility to set up defenders in coverage, and he’s rugged after the catch with 4.59 speed. And I think we could see Peterson deploy him as a boundary X target to the backside of 3×1 sets for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. These are isolation throws for Lawrence to a big-body target with route running traits. And with Engram playing on the tag this season, LaPorta could serve as the tight end of the future in Jacksonville. He closed last season with 657 receiving yards (fourth among tight ends) but only caught one touchdown.