The NFL will test technology vs. the old fashioned chain gang in determining first downs in some preseason games.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the pluses and minuses of Sony Hawk-Eye technology:

The NFL’s movement toward measuring first downs with technology instead of the traditional chain gang doesn’t fix everything, but it’s a step.

We’ll see some of the new technology in select preseason games. The Associated Press reported the NFL will use Sony’s Hawk-Eye technology in some preseason games this year. Once the ball is spotted, Hawk-Eye tells officials if it’s a first down. That will speed up the game and eliminate the few errors with the chain gang measuring.

The problem will continue to be the spot itself. Officials can’t be in perfect position to accurately spot the ball at the end of each play. Often they’re not close to the true spot, but then first downs are measured to the millimeter. Hawk-Eye technology won’t help spot the ball better, just measure first downs accurately and quickly.

That’s progress, though. And it will be in play during the preseason.

“We’re in the installation phase for all of our stadiums, really getting them calibrated and up to date,” Gary Brantley, the NFL’s senior vice president and chief information officer, told the AP. “We’re just really getting to a place where this system is as accurate as possible and really calibrating across our multiple stadiums.”

The system is unlikely to be implemented for the regular season before next year, the AP said.

Fans will still complain about the spot of the ball. But at least they won’t wait long to see if that inaccurate spot results in a first down.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

As the Cowboys have dithered, the cost of a new contract for QB DAK PRESCOTT has only risen.  Joel Corry on why Prescott has all the leverage:

The top of the quarterback market got more clarity at the end of last week. Tua Tagovailoa became the NFL’s third-highest-paid player at $53.1 million per year when he received a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension (worth up to $221.4 million with incentives) from the Miami Dolphins on Friday. The deal has $167.171 million in guarantees, of which $93.171 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Several hours later, Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers reached an agreement on a four-year, $220 million extension worth a maximum of $221.25 million through incentives and salary escalators. At $55 million per year, Love ties Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence as the NFL’s highest-paid player. There are $160.3 million of guarantees in Love’s contract where $100.8 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Included in the $100.8 million is an NFL-record $75 million signing bonus.

Neither of these contracts is particularly relevant to Prescott’s situation. Prescott, who is in a contract year, is in a unique situation because of the nature of the four-year, $160 million deal, averaging $40 million per year, he signed in March 2021.

The 2023 NFL MVP runner-up is sitting in the driver’s seat despite a subpar performance in which he was thoroughly outplayed by Love when the Dallas Cowboys were upset by the Packers in the wild-card playoff round as the NFC’s No. 2 seed. Prescott has a no-trade clause in his contract. He also has a provision preventing Dallas from designating him as a franchise or transition player in 2025 should he play out his contract. There also isn’t a legitimate starting quarterback alternative currently on Dallas’ roster.

Thanks to four different contract restructures strictly to create salary cap room since signing the $40 million deal in 2021, the Cowboys will have a $40.46 million 2025 salary cap charge if Prescott plays out his contract and tests the open market in 2025 free agency. The Cowboys would get a 2026 third-round compensatory pick at best from Prescott’s departure in this manner.

The Cowboys finally got the ball rolling with Prescott’s contract. Chief Operating Officer Stephen Jones revealed on Saturday that an offer was made to Prescott recently. Owner Jerry Jones said he didn’t think this season would be Prescott’s last in Dallas and expressed confidence that a deal can get done last week at his introductory training camp press conference.

An offer consistent with the most recent developments in the 2024 quarterback market would be paying lip service to Jones’ belief given Prescott holds all the cards in the negotiation. If Jones is serious about retaining Prescott he needs to start thinking about what would make him forego a chance to test the open market in 2025 since he can’t be restricted by a franchise tag.

Prescott reiterated his desire to remain in Dallas while talking to the media last week but also acknowledged that several great quarterbacks, such as Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana and Aaron Rodgers, played for other teams. Another remark he made was more illuminating. “I’ve said it before: I have an obligation to the NFL, to other quarterbacks and to my teammates when it comes to what I get paid and what I accept. That’s where sometimes I leave it to my agents,” said Prescott.

This type of comment suggests that Prescott intends to exploit his leverage and give his agent, Todd France, latitude to do what he sees fit. Along those lines, two important data points to France could be the growth in top of the quarterback market last year and the quarterback market after adjusting for salary cap inflation.

Heading into the 2023 offseason, the NFL’s highest-paid player was Rodgers. He became the NFL’s first $50 million-per-year player with a contract widely considered to be $150.815 million over three years, averaging $50,271,667 per year, although there were two additional below-market years (2025 and 2026) in the deal.

At the end of the 2023 season, Burrow topped the NFL pay scale. He signed a five-year, $275 million extension, averaging $55 million per year, with the Bengals right before last regular season started. The deal is worth up to $281.25 million thanks to $1.25 million of annual incentives in the extension years (2025 through 2029). Burrow has $219.01 million in salary guarantees, of which $146.51 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

The top of the quarterback market increased in 2023 by 9.41% from 2022. It’s been stagnant thus far in 2024 with Lawrence and Love tying Burrow’s $55 million per year. The 9.41% market increase in 2023 applied to the existing $55 million-per-year benchmark is just under $60.175 million per year.

The salary cap went from $224.8 million in 2023 to currently $255.4 million. Adjusting Burrow’s deal for the 13.61% growth in the salary cap would essentially be $62.5 million per year.

Stephen Jones indicated the he hasn’t gotten a response from Prescott’s camp. “Right now the ball is in [Dak’s] court and we’re waiting to hear from them,” Jones said Monday in an interview with a San Antonio radio station. “They understand that the ball is in their court.”

France would be justified in being adamant with the Cowboys that a four-year extension, averaging $61.25 million per year, would prevent Prescott from becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2025. The $61.25 million per year figure is slightly below the midpoint of Burrow’s contract adjusted for salary cap inflation ($62.5 million per year) and the growth in the top of the quarterback market from 2022 to 2023 ($60.175 million per year).

France should insist that the no-trade clause and the provision preventing a franchise or transition tag would have to carry over from the 2021 contract as well as Prescott getting another record-setting signing bonus. Prescott’s $66 million signing bonus was the most ever in an NFL contract until Lamar Jackson’s $72.5 million signing bonus in the deal he signed with the Baltimore Ravens last year. If the Cowboys are interested in substantially lowering Prescott’s $55,132,467 2024 cap number in an extension, Love’s $75 million signing bonus may need to be eclipsed anyway given his current 2024 base salary is $29 million.

Strong contract guarantees and great cash flow should also be a necessity. Getting at least $150 million fully guaranteed at signing, which would be the NFL’s second most behind the $230 million in Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed contract with the Cleveland Browns, might be an important benchmark for France.

The overall guarantees could exceed $200 million but would likely fall short of Watson’s $230 million. Even with one of the most player friendly cash flows for a four-year extension like Russell Wilson had in his 2019 deal with the Seattle Seahawks, Prescott’s total cash through 2027 (the third new contract year) would be $228.5 million. This is $1.5 million less than Watson’s total guarantees. Subtracting out Prescott’s $29 million 2024 base salary leaves $199.5 million of new money through the third new year of 2027 out of the $245 million of new money over the four new years in a $61.25 million-per-year extension.

The $199.5 million represents 81.43% of the new money in the deal after the third new year, which is in line with Wilson’s percentage. By contrast, Love and Tagovailoa are 79.55% and 76.74%, respectively, after the third new year. By approximating Love’s 79.55%, Prescott would have $195 million of new money and $224 million of overall cash through 2027.

It should also be stressed to the Cowboys that anything from the current negotiation will be obsolete in the future if Prescott plays the 2024 season under his existing contract. The growth in the salary cap from 2024 would have to be added into the equation. Once the 2024 season is over, Prescott would have to have a strong preference of staying in Dallas to pass up definitively finding out his true market value during the two-day negotiating period prior to the start of free agency beginning next March 10.

Personally, I would like for Prescott to play out his contract and become an unrestricted free agent in 2025. I’m curious to see what Prescott could command on the open market as long as he didn’t have a stunning collapse in 2024 along the lines of Wilson’s first season with the Denver Broncos after being acquired from the Seahawks in a 2022 offseason trade.

A healthy Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in his prime is never available on the open market. A fully guaranteed contract could be conceivable for Prescott, who just turned 31, with strong interest from at least two teams.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Just a few more thoughts on the Hall of Fame candidacy of QB Matt Ryan.

The DB, perhaps more than most, favors the inclusion of enduring players, particularly quarterbacks, in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Yesterday, we had a opus from the normally thoughtful Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com where he listed 49 players he thought would be in the next 10 Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

Among QBs, he allowed enshrinement for the obvious Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and the semi-obvious Ben Roethlisberger.

He also proclaimed Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson as Hall of Famers.

So among all the strong Hall of Fame QB contenders only Matt Ryan was deemed unworthy, largely because of his team’s failure late in Super Bowl 51.  So a game in which Ryan had a passer rating of 144.1 (17-23, 284 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT) cost him a gold jacket.

Yes, he lost a fumble on a sack on an ill-advised pass call on 3^rd-and-1 at 28-12.

Then at 28-20, he completed passes of 39 and 27 yards to get the Falcons out of a hole on their own 10.  On a 2^nd-and-11 at the Patriots 23, he was again sacked and after a holding penalty, the Falcons could not kick the clinching field goal.

For this, two sacks and a fumble in an otherwise excellent game, Ryan is deemed not to be worthy of a Hall of Fame enshrinement.  Those two plays negate 62,792 pass yards, 65.6% passing accuracy and 381 TD passes in Barnwell’s mind.

We would also point out that Ryan directed 46 game-winning drives in his career, 6^th on the all-time list.  So late-game failure was not a hallmark of his career in general.

Again, we could point out deficiencies in the candidacies of Rivers, Manning, Stafford and Wilson that in our mind put Ryan above them, or at least equal.

But the main point is, playing quarterback in the NFL is in all likelihood the single hardest job in sports with the most analysis.  Not only are all wins and losses deemed to be in your control, but many stats are intricately analyzed.

Last year, T Joe Thomas was a first-year enshrinee, as the voters completely absolved him from any responsibility for the complete failure of the Browns in total and offensively throughout all of his career.

But Ryan, with a pretty good winning record, would be denied because of the result of a game in which he put 28 points on the board.

You don’t have to vote for any of the five in question (Eli, Rivers, Stafford, Wilson, Ryan) on the first ballot.  But as remarkable competitors who endured, compiled important wins and amazing stats, we would think they all should have their day of enshrinement on an August afternoon or evening in Ohio.

TAMPA BAY

The Buccaneers continue to sign their own.  T TRISTAN WIRFS is locked up with a huge contract.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Tristan Wirfs can get back to practicing fully.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the star left tackle agreed to a five-year extension worth $140 million, with more than $88 million guaranteed, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Thursday, per sources informed of the situation.

The former No. 13 overall pick was slated to enter the final year of his rookie contract. Wirfs had been practicing on a limited basis during training camp — keeping him out of padded practices — as sides worked on the deal.

Wirfs spent his first three seasons in Tampa at right tackle, earning a first-team All-Pro nod and two Pro Bowls. Last year, the first-rounder seamlessly moved to left tackle, protecting Baker Mayfield’s blind side. Not always an easy transition, Wirfs made it look like child’s play, earning another Pro Bowl.

The contract is the latest that Bucs general manager Jason Licht has handed out this season to keep his core intact for years to come. Tampa has now re-signed or extended Wirfs, Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr.. In one offseason, Tampa has gone from having one $20-plus-million-per-year player (Chris Godwin) to having five.

– – –

The season is already over for G SUA OPATA.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Buccaneers offensive lineman Sua Opeta injured his knee in Tuesday night’s practice, and an MRI confirmed the bad news.

Opeta tore his ACL and is out for the season, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.

Opeta was competing with Ben Bredeson for the starting left guard job, which was left vacant by Aaron Stinnie’s departure for the Giants in free agency.

Opeta signed a one-year deal with the Bucs in March after starting six games for the Eagles last season and appearing in seven others. He played 527 snaps in 2023.

But EDGE YAYA DIABY may have dodged serious injury on Thursday morning:

@PewterReport

GOOD NEWS on the Yaya Diaby injury front. It is believed that Diaby DID NOT tear his Achilles in his left ankle.

#Bucs are hopeful that X-rays are negative and that it could just be an ankle sprain or a bone bruise.

Hopefully disaster has been avoided.

And this:

@JCAllenNFL

Yaya Diaby suffered an ankle injury at practice today, per my eyes and HC Todd Bowles.

Talking with sources he was able to move his ankle and put pressure on in it and it wasn’t “as scary” a situation as when Shaq tore his Achilles.

AFC WEST

DENVER

An ankle injury for Denver G QUINN BAILEY.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Broncos head coach Sean Payton offered an update on the injury suffered by offensive lineman Quinn Bailey on Wednesday afternoon.

Bailey was placed in an air cast and loaded into an ambulance after injuring his leg at practice. That response suggested a serious injury and Payton said that was the case when he opened up his post-practice training camp.

“It looks like he fractured his ankle, that was definitely apparent,” Payton said. “I’m not sure of the timeline relative to surgery. It’s always tough to see and be a part of when you’re at a practice. Sometimes the bitter reality of our game, he was having a real good camp.”

Bailey has appeared in 31 games for the Broncos over the last five seasons and it looks like it will be 2025 before he’ll have a chance to add to that total.

KANSAS CITY

The preseason power rankings of Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com end at a location you might expect. But although Schwab has them at #1, he doesn’t think they will hoist Lombardi:

Other NFL team previews: 32. Panthers | 31. Patriots | 30. Broncos | 29. Commanders | 28. Giants | 27. Titans | 26. Raiders | 25. Cardinals | 24. Saints | 23. Chargers | 22. Vikings | 21. Seahawks | 20. Buccaneers | 19. Jaguars | 18. Falcons | 17. Colts | 16. Bears | 15. Steelers | 14. Rams | 13. Bengals | 12. Dolphins | 11. Eagles | 10. Jets | 9. Packers | 8. Texans | 7. Browns | 6. Bills | 5. Cowboys | 4. Ravens | 3. 49ers | 2. Lions |

1. Chiefs

You’re going to hear often this season that no team has ever won three straight NFL championships. That will be inaccurate.

It has happened twice. In 1929-31, the Green Bay Packers won three straight NFL titles with head coach Curly Lambeau. That came when the championship was determined by best record; there were no playoffs. Then, in 1965-67, the Packers did it again. The last two of those championships were the first two Super Bowls. There was a rich NFL history before the Super Bowl era, no matter how much it’s ignored.

So three titles in a row has happened, but it says something about what the Kansas City Chiefs are chasing that we have to refer back to grainy footage of Vince Lombardi or to when Babe Ruth was still in his prime. No team has ever won three Super Bowls in a row before, and that’s what the Chiefs have in front of them. They’d be the first to do it and since we haven’t seen it yet through 58 Super Bowls, it’s possible we wouldn’t see it again in our lifetimes.

The rest of the NFL has to be kicking itself for giving Kansas City this opportunity. Last season’s Chiefs team was good but far from great. It was a frustrating season that included losses to mediocre teams like the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. But in the playoffs the Chiefs did their thing, winning four games in a row, including a thrilling Super Bowl in overtime. The rest of the NFL had a good shot to scoop up a ring before Patrick Mahomes got another, and they wasted their chance. Now good teams like the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have to wonder if they’re playing the role of the 1990s New York Knicks and Utah Jazz to Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls.

The Chiefs should be better this season. First-round draft pick Xavier Worthy and free-agent addition Marquise Brown bolster a receiving room that was a problem at times last season, though a potential suspension for Rashee Rice could detract from that group. The pass catchers are joined by all-time great tight end Travis Kelce, who showed last postseason that he’s still capable of greatness even though he’s about to turn 35 years old. The defense arrived in a big way last season and was a driver for the Chiefs’ bonus Super Bowl championship last season when the offense was off from its norm. Even though cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was traded to the Tennessee Titans this offseason as the Chiefs kept an eye on the salary cap, the defense was mostly young and should be good again. And then there’s Mahomes, who has three Super Bowl rings, three Super Bowl MVPs, another AFC championship, two regular-season MVPs and is already in the discussion for the best quarterback of all time. The Pro Football Hall of Fame is already a foregone conclusion.

There were eight back-to-back Super Bowl champions who failed in their chance to win a third Super Bowl in a row. For some, like the 1968 Packers, 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers or 1999 Denver Broncos, they got old in a hurry or had key retirements. It’s rare for a team to win two straight Super Bowls and believe they’re even better before the attempt at a third in a row, but the Chiefs should feel that way.

And they’re focused on what a third straight title would mean for all their legacies.

“Everybody talks about it,” linebacker Nick Bolton said. “[There has been] an undefeated season, it’s been done before. Winning back-to-back Super Bowls, that’s been done before. To be on your own in history, I think that’s special. I think everyone strives to be the No. 1 team to ever do that.”

Mahomes said: “You’ve already made your imprint on history, but now there’s something that no one’s done in the Super Bowl era. Obviously the Packers before there was the Super Bowl, but in the Super Bowl era, no one’s won three in a row. And that kind of just takes you to another upper level, I guess you could say, as a team.”

History is on the line for the 2024 Chiefs. We’ll talk about Mahomes, Kelce, Andy Reid and these Chiefs as long as NFL history is discussed, but the conversation would change if they got a third Super Bowl in a row. This Chiefs team would then own a special place in NFL history. And they know it.

Offseason grade

The Chiefs would have had a nearly perfect offseason if they could have found a way to retain cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. They did retain defensive lineman Chris Jones on a five-year deal worth a little less than $159 million. They also re-signed defensive lineman Michael Danna on a three-year, $24 million deal. Sneed wasn’t happy to be on the franchise tag so he was shipped to the Titans. That’s not a small departure considering Sneed’s versatility was key to Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive scheme. But it’s hard to keep everyone together, which is one reason a Super Bowl three-peat has never happened. The Chiefs were able to add receiver Marquise Brown and backup quarterback Carson Wentz in free agency. Brown got just $7 million over one year, one of the best bargains in free agency for a former first-round pick who has a 1,000-yard season in his past. Critics liked the Chiefs’ draft, which started with receiver Xavier Worthy and his record-breaking speed in the first round and continued with a strong pick of BYU offensive tackle Kingsley Suamataia in the second round. There weren’t a lot of other notable moves (though there was a full share of offseason drama). Losing Sneed can’t be ignored but retaining Jones and adding receivers Worthy and Brown made for a nice offseason.

Grade: B

Quarterback report

Not much more can be said about Patrick Mahomes. Nobody will remember that he had a down 2023, by his standards. His yards dropped from 5,250 to 4,183 from the season before, touchdowns went from 41 to 27 and interceptions rose from 12 to 14, a career high. His 92.6 passer rating was by far the worst of his career. And all that will be remembered about Mahomes’ 2023 season years from now is that he won his third Super Bowl, leading a game-tying drive in the final seconds of the fourth quarter and a game-winning drive in overtime after the 49ers kicked a field goal. He threw for 333 yards, two touchdowns and won another Super Bowl MVP. Nobody cares about a temper tantrum at the officials over an offsides penalty in a loss to the Bills or a pick-6 in an ugly loss to the Raiders on Christmas. Mahomes turned his worst regular season into another legendary chapter in his already all-time great career. That statement should be depressing for every other NFL team.

BetMGM odds breakdown

The Chiefs are favored to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM, though the offseason didn’t start that way. The 49ers were slightly favored, but their contract drama combined with some good offseason additions by the Chiefs flipped the odds. Kansas City is +550 to win the Super Bowl. At -250 to win the AFC West, they are the heaviest favorite among all NFL teams to win their division. Patrick Mahomes is +500 to win NFL MVP, and no other player is shorter than +900. The Chiefs are not just the favorites but the most-bet team to win the Super Bowl. No team has gotten more bets or money in the Super Bowl market at BetMGM than Kansas City.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Although the Chiefs ended last season with a victory parade, it wasn’t a signature year for the offense, Kansas City ranked ninth in yards and 15th in points, the least-efficient Andy Reid offense in about a decade. It also slotted 26th in rushing touchdowns, and that’s the worst Reid rank in that stat since his third season with the Eagles, way back in 2001.

“Of course the offense came around in the second half and postseason — that’s why the Chiefs are the defending champs. And Isiah Pacheco was a big part of that rebound. Over his final 10 starts (including the playoffs), Pacheco went for 933 total yards and eight touchdowns. Some injuries held him back in the second half, but Pacheco had three top 8 fantasy performances in the final two months, including a RB2 finish in Week 17.

“All running backs carry notable injury risk and perhaps Pacheco has a little more risk tied to him, given his aggressive, contact-seeking running style. But after two years he’s clearly established himself as the featured back in an offense helmed by Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and we’d like exposure to that type of player. Pacheco is a reasonable pick in the late-second round of Yahoo drafts (his current ADP is 21), and a nifty value if he slips into the third round of your league.”

Stat to remember

Last regular season, Travis Kelce averaged 65.6 yards per game, his lowest mark since 2015. Then, in the playoffs, Kelce averaged 88.8 yards per game and had three touchdowns. Kelce scored just five times in 15 regular-season games.

At some point Kelce, who will turn 35 years old on Oct. 5, is going to hit the wall. In NFL history, no 35-year-old tight end has ever posted a 1,000-yard season. But the Chiefs don’t care about 1,000-yard seasons. Like last season, they just need Kelce to be great in the playoffs. That might lead to another drop in playing time for Kelce in the regular season. He played 77% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps last season, his lowest mark since 2014. Part of that was because Kelce was working back from a knee injury that kept him out of the Chiefs’ opener, but it provided a template. The Chiefs can hold Kelce back a bit in the regular season to ensure he’s at his peak for the playoffs, when he plays his best and the Chiefs need him most.

Burning question

What will happen to Rashee Rice?

When the Chiefs finally got fed up with their other options at receiver and started to rely heavily on rookie Rashee Rice, the offense got better. Rice had a fine rookie season. In his final 10 games, counting playoffs, Rice had 69 catches, 780 yards and four touchdowns. It seemed like his second year would be much bigger.

Then Rice had a troubling offseason. He was part of a multi-car accident in Dallas in which he was racing at high speeds. He then left the scene. There’s a chance Rice is suspended by the NFL, perhaps even later in the season, and that uncertainty affects the Chiefs’ season. They do have more options at receiver, with rookie Xavier Worthy coming aboard and Marquise Brown as an intriguing free-agent addition. Kansas City also relied heavily on running back Isiah Pacheco in the playoffs, and that should continue into this season. But Rice’s status will be a looming issue for the season.

Best-case scenario

The Chiefs’ defense was second in the NFL in points and yards allowed last season. Defensive excellence is less likely to repeat than offense year to year, but let’s imagine the Chiefs’ defense stays at about that level. Kansas City’s offense struggled a bit last season, finishing 15th in points and ninth in yards, but that seemed like an anomaly. If we assume that Patrick Mahomes plays like he did his first five seasons as Kansas City’s starter, it’s not that outrageous to think the Chiefs could have a top-three offense and defense this season. Kansas City has never had a great defense and a great offense in the same season of the Mahomes era. It’s on the table this season. The best the Chiefs have done in the regular season with Mahomes is a 14-2 record in 2020. Could Kansas City go 15-2 or 14-3 with Mahomes winning another MVP, and then go on to take a historic third straight Super Bowl? Absolutely.

Nightmare scenario

The Chiefs finished 11-6 last season and that seems like their floor. Maybe there’s some outlandish story in which Jim Harbaugh completely turns around the Chargers and they upset the Chiefs for the AFC West title, but that seems very unlikely. And the Raiders or Broncos winning the division seems nearly impossible. There’s a reason Kansas City is a huge favorite to win the division. The Chiefs could struggle a bit if the aging curve finally catches up to Travis Kelce, the receivers are a problem again due to Rashee Rice’s off-field issues or Xavier Worthy being slow to pick up a complicated offense, and the defense has normal regression. That could lead to an early playoff exit, which has never happened to Mahomes. During the Mahomes era the Chiefs have not lost in the playoffs earlier than overtime of the AFC championship game. A regulation loss in the AFC title game would be their worst outcome since the 2017 season, which is ridiculous. A division title with a playoff loss short of the Super Bowl should never be unprecedented for a team and also a massive disappointment, but it would be for the 2024 Chiefs.

The crystal ball says …

Very good teams like the 1974 Dolphins, 1976 Steelers and 1990 49ers were set up very well for a third straight Super Bowl and lost, mostly because it’s very, very hard to get through the NFL minefield three seasons in a row without being upended. Injuries happen. Teams aiming for you improve. Many playoff games are close, decided by a play or two and eventually the coin won’t flip on your side. Think of how history is different if Jet Chip Wasp is incomplete (or holding was called), the Bengals don’t get called for hitting Patrick Mahomes out of bounds, the Bills squib kick with 13 seconds left, James Bradberry isn’t called for holding on third down, Tyler Bass hadn’t missed wide right, Zay Flowers didn’t fumble right before the goal line and that punt hadn’t hit a 49ers blocker. The Chiefs haven’t been lucky but a lot of 50/50 breaks have gone their way.

There hasn’t been a Super Bowl three-peat, and not because there hasn’t been a team good enough to do it. It’s just unlikely that everything lines up perfectly three seasons in a row. The Chiefs are better than last season. They have all the ingredients to win another Super Bowl. But I’ll go with the probabilities and say the Chiefs won’t take home a historic three-peat. At some point they’re going to hit a red light in the playoffs and Mahomes won’t be able to save them, hard as that is to believe.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

Jori Epstein of YahooSports.com on WR Ja’MARR CHASE as he waits for his new contract:

Ja’Marr Chase watched as fellow Cincinnati Bengals pass catchers cut to their left and then curled back for a catch.

Like every member of the Bengals’ offense, Chase wore a white team jersey. But amid a sea of helmets on the final day before padded practices began, Chase wore a baseball cap.

Almost a week into camp, he was not practicing.

Instead, the three-time Pro Bowl receiver was “holding in” — participating in meetings and walking through some concepts on his own but eschewing organized physical activity as he campaigned for a contract extension.

He knows the market is lucrative right now.

For NFL teams, the receiver market is downright scary.

Just days before the NFL Draft in April, the Detroit Lions awarded Amon-Ra St. Brown a four-year extension worth with a receiver-record $77 million guaranteed and $30 million per year. The record lasted a day.

Then the Philadelphia Eagles awarded A.J. Brown $84 million in guarantees and a $32 million annual average salary.

By June, the Minnesota Vikings smashed non-quarterback precedents as they gave Justin Jefferson a four-year, $140 million contract ($35 million per year) with $110 million guaranteed.

So while it is easy to look at Chase’s non-participation as dramatic — he still has one year remaining on his rookie deal and then a fifth-year option, and then two possible franchise tags — a glance at the receiver market tells another story.

The time is ripe to be an NFL wide receiver on the brink of extension. Why not maximize his chances of striking?

“He’s obviously a huge part of our offense,” Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher told Yahoo Sports. “The business part is the business part. Those two sides are going to handle that how they need to handle it. We obviously would love to have Ja’Marr practicing. But I think everybody here understands the elements at play.

“There’s an implicit love and trust of Ja’Marr Chase because of who he is, what he’s meant to this team, the plays that he’s made in some of the biggest spots. So that process will play itself out however it does and we’ll be happy to have him back whenever we get him back.”

In short and long term, delaying Chase deal may cost parties

Two points were clear in conversations with Bengals leadership.

The first: The Bengals have no intention of moving forward, in 2024 or any year soon, without their LSU product who’s caught 268 passes for 3,717 yards and 29 touchdowns in just three seasons.

Director of player personnel Duke Tobin lauded Chase’s value and fit at the start of camp. Team owner Mike Brown described Chase as the team’s most important piece after quarterback Joe Burrow, whom they already extended last summer.

“We’re going to bend over backward to get it done,” Brown told reporters on July 22. “I can’t tell you when, though.”

Which leads us to the second point.

A person with knowledge of negotiations told Yahoo Sports that the Bengals want to extend Chase before the start of this season. Sure, they already control his rights for up to four more years. But the same reason Chase is holding out — to get the value the market is saying he’s worth — speaks to why the Bengals would want to pounce sooner than later.

The market isn’t slowing down.

As the Bengals donned pads Wednesday, Chase still withholding services, the Chicago Bears were finalizing an extension for receiver DJ Moore. The four-year, $110 million extension with $82.6 million guaranteed would have ranked third in average annual salary and first in guarantees four months ago.

Now: sixth and third.

The Dallas Cowboys could soon shift the market further with CeeDee Lamb; the San Francisco 49ers, too, could engage with Brandon Aiyuk.

Expect Chase’s agents, Rocky Arceneaux and Jason Lampert, to argue their client deserves Jefferson-stratosphere money. Chase’s value is expected to rise by next year.

“Hopefully something gets done and he’s out practicing because he understands how valuable he is to this team,” receivers coach Troy Walters told Yahoo Sports. “He’s humble and he’s hungry, so he’s never satisfied. He doesn’t care what he did in the past.

“He wants to be better this year than he was last year.”

Bengals’ 2024 offense will rely heavily on Chase

The Bengals’ offense also wants to be better than last year.

After two seasons as a top-seven scoring offense and top-13 in total yardage, Cincinnati slipped last year to 16th and 22nd, respectively.

Burrow’s health is the top explanation, Cincinnati’s oft-injured quarterback tearing a ligament in his wrist Nov. 16 and undergoing surgery in December. Burrow has returned to practicing in individual and team drills, though head coach Zac Taylor is managing his workload when the team practices consecutive days.

“Him being on the field for a full season is what’s going to help us win a Super Bowl,” Pitcher said of Burrow.

The ‘S’ and ‘B’ words are used frequently around Cincinnati, the Bengals three years removed from their last appearance in the big game and confident they can beat anybody with a healthy Burrow.

A key area of improvement they’re eyeing: more explosive plays.

“We’ve been at times a very explosive offense,” Pitcher said. “Then we’ve evolved to a very efficient offense [where we] take what the defense gives you because they’re quite frankly worried about your explosive players on the outside — which is a great way to play football but as in anything, if you fall too squarely in any one camp, they can beat it.”

So the Bengals want to swing their pendulum back toward explosion after a season in which they produced the 10th-fewest plays of 20+ yards. They know Chase is their surest route toward that goal, memories ranging from Chase’s 266-yard, three-touchdown performance to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021 to Chase’s clinic in go-ball separation last December in Jacksonville.

Backup quarterback Jake Browning sailed a pass down the left sideline to Chase, who outpaced cornerback Tyson Campbell to haul in a 23-yard catch and race it the remaining 53 yards to the end zone. The Bengals ultimately won the prime-time road game in overtime, 34-31 — without Burrow.

“He almost has a running back physique or body, [which] makes him such a dangerous guy with yards after the catch,” Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo told Yahoo Sports. “He accelerates when the ball’s in the air. He has a different speed to go get it. And when he tracks it, his hands are so big and strong that it’s hard to get off him.

“And now being a veteran, he’s knowing how to get open, knowing what route, all the different things that we do. Put that all together and you got a special player for sure.”

What’s a special player worth? The Bengals will have to decide, wary that the Vikings raised a market in which they’re not paying a quarterback top dollar in the way Cincinnati is. The Bengals seem closer to Super Bowl contention this year, too, and they may choose to factor in chemistry as they navigate Chase’s emotions.

But in the franchise’s first year since 2016 without Joe Mixon anchoring its run game, and in a franchise-tag season for fellow receiver Tee Higgins, Chase’s production and the defensive attention he commands is a necessary ingredient for the Bengals’ Super Bowl pursuit.

“We feel like he’s a great fit for us but we also feel like we’re a great fit for him and I think he realizes that,” Tobin said entering training camp. “Normally in those situations something can find a way to get done so we’ll see.

“He’s pretty valuable.”

CLEVELAND

Hopefully, RB D’ONTA FOREMAN will be okay.  Zac Jackson of The Athletic on his injury:

Cleveland Browns running back D’Onta Foreman was placed on a backboard and carted off the practice field late in Thursday’s practice before being rushed to a hospital via ambulance and helicopter.

Foreman was injured during a special teams drill on the team’s second day in full pads. Members of the team’s medical staff attended to Foreman for several minutes before the cart drove him to an ambulance adjacent to the practice fields.

The Browns issued a statement following Foreman’s injury: “During practice today, Browns RB D’Onta Foreman sustained a direct blow to the head that resulted in neck pain. The Browns athletic training staff deployed their standard emergency action procedures to immobilize Foreman. He was taken to an ambulance and is being transported via helicopter to a medical center in Roanoke, Va. (practice is in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va., which is about 80 miles away) to undergo further medical evaluation. Foreman had movement in all his extremities. Updates will be provided as more information is received.”

PITTSBURGH

A fight in Steelers camp.  Bryan D’Ardo of CBSSports.com:

It took six days, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have had their first skirmish of training camp.

The skirmish was a byproduct of linebacker Elandon Roberts’ shove of quarterback Justin Fields at the end of a read option play during Wednesday’s practice. Several offensive linemen took exception to the shove, thus leading to a shoving match between the offense and defense.

While tempers were hot at that moment, it didn’t take long for things to cool off. Players on both sides were seen shaking hands and exchanging pleasantries just moments later.

While often looked at in a negative light, camp skirmishes aren’t usually a bad thing. In the case of the Steelers, Wednesday’s skirmish appeared to be the byproduct of the offensive line wanting to protect their quarterback, which says something about how Fields has already endeared himself to the group.

Pittsburgh’s line is trying to keep Fields healthy with Russell Wilson continuing to miss significant portions of practice with a calf injury. Fields had another solid outing Wednesday as Wilson continues to work his way back into the swing of things.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

How is WR STEFON DIGGS fitting in with the Texans?  Logan Farlow of USA TODAY:

The Houston Texans will play another opponent for the first time on Thursday, but fans will likely have to wait before seeing newcomer Stefon Diggs in action.

Diggs, acquired in a trade with the Buffalo Bills in exchange for a 2025 second-round pick, headlined Houston’s bountiful offseason. The move unionized one of the league’s top receivers with a trio of proven talent for quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who pulled himself out of head coaching opportunities to return to Houston, is tasked with bringing all the pieces together on the offensive side of the ball.

Slowik will have many mouths to feed in year two, with none more extensive than Diggs.

The four-time Pro Bowler made it four straight 100-reception seasons and six consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns last year with the Bills.

In a recent interview on Chris Long’s “Green Light Podcast,” Slowik broke out multiple topics, including his thoughts on Diggs’ potential fit in the Texans offense.

“One thing I think people underrate with Diggs is how good of a ball-in-hands player he is,” Slowik said. “He’s a very good runner when he has the rock.”

Houston’s offense recorded 1,976 yards after the catch, the 12th-most among teams in 2023. Nico Collins accounted for nearly 30% of the Texans’ YAC. Meanwhile, Diggs finished with 404 of his 1,183 yards coming after the catch, gaining 3.8 yards after the catch per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus.

“He had a lot of underneath catches that most receivers were getting 10 yards on, and Stef was taking them to the house,” Slowik said. “It was a throw he caught at four yards that most guys get six, and he got 12.

“The difference between second and four and second and one or the difference between second and seven and first and 10—for us, that’s everything. The more we can stay on track, the more we really believe in what we can do as far as being efficient until we can get explosive.”

While Houston averaged the 13th-most points per game at 22.2, the offense mainly relied on explosive plays to lift it at times. Sharp Football Analysis found that the Texans scored on 37.8 percent of their drives per game, 15th in the league, and ended with a touchdown at 19.7 percent.

The latter was a bottom-12 mark in the league.

Collins and Tank Dell, Houston’s top returning targets from an AFC South division-winning season, are better suited for downfield roles. Both finished with an average depth of targets above 11.5 yards. Dell’s 14.4 ADOT ranked top-20 in the league.

Houston’s quarterback targeted the short area of the field—less than 10 yards—on 40.5 percent of his attempts, third-lowest among qualified passers. Diggs’ presence underneath may alleviate pressure on Stroud to constantly connect downfield like he did a year ago.

When Minnesota dealt Diggs to Buffalo in 2020, he arrived as an ideal downfield threat for Josh Allen. Now entering his age-30 season, he may be a model security blanket.

INDIANAPOLIS

WR ALEX PIERCE is a name to watch in Colts camp.  James Boyd of The Athletic:

Wide receivers

Alec Pierce: stock up

Plenty of prognosticators viewed the Colts second-round selection of Adonai Mitchell as the beginning of the end for Pierce, who’s recorded 73 catches for 1,107 yards and four TDs over the first two years of his career. Perhaps that will prove to be true, but Pierce has shown throughout the first week of camp that he isn’t going to go away quietly.

He said in the spring it was his job to prove he deserved to be the Colts’ third starter alongside Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. So far, Pierce is handling his business, making a handful of catches during team drills that have either gone for first downs or touchdowns.

Pierce has looked like a key cog in the Colts offense, and he really came alive Wednesday by snagging nearly everything in his vicinity. He hauled in a pass from quarterback Anthony Richardson on a deep post route in seven-on-seven, and he followed that up by reeling in a 50-yard TD in 11-on-11 from backup QB Joe Flacco in double coverage. After Pierce made the diving and twisting catch in between safety Ronnie Harrison Jr. and cornerback Darrell Baker Jr., he got up and pounded his chest.

“He made some big plays,” Colts offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. “He always brings it to practice. He is as consistent as they come. His work ethic, his work habits, his pre-practice habits — just the way he prepares himself to have a shot at having some success.”

Adonai Mitchell: stock down

Mitchell has not been the same playmaker he was during the spring when the rookie seemingly made a noteworthy catch every practice. He’s had some moments throughout one-on-one drills, including a dazzling intermediate route Wednesday in which he made cornerback Jaylon Jones fall before easily catching a pass and racing toward the end zone. But the second-round pick has been relatively quiet throughout team periods, especially when he’s been with the first unit. Mitchell’s lack of production is not to say he’s behind schedule. It simply serves as a reminder that he has a lot to learn while adjusting to the NFL. As it stands now, however, Pierce remains firmly in place as the Colts’ third starting receiver.

Anthony Gould: stock up

The Colts drafted Gould, a prolific punt returner at Oregon State, in the fifth round to presumably feature him on special teams. He’s displayed his shiftiness on punt and kickoff returns so far in camp, but his presence hasn’t stopped there. Gould has built a connection with Flacco and snagged another deep ball during Wednesday’s practice, which has become a bit of a theme between the two players dating to the spring. Gould said during the draft he was more than a return man, and through the first week of camp, Cooter isn’t disagreeing.

“We’re excited about the offense that we’re sort of putting together this year and all the different tools we have. … I think Anthony’s trying to break into that and show us what he can do when he gets those opportunities, and he’s done that,” Cooter said. “The last few days, he’s made some plays down the field. I think there’s more that’s gonna come.”

TENNESSEE

DL JEFFREY SIMMONS had a “run-in” with a radio host – and now that its viral, he regrets it.  Turon Davenport of ESPN.com:

Titans defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons addressed the media Wednesday to apologize for a verbal altercation with a local radio host a day before.

“That’s not who I am or who I want to be seen as,” Simmons said. “At the end of the day, I take full accountability of my actions on the field, and I promise that won’t ever happen again.”

On Tuesday, Simmons approached Buck Reising, the radio host, after practice while he was live on the air about a post he made on social media. The verbal altercation came after Simmons got into two scuffles on back-to-back plays during the team period of Tuesday’s practice. Simmons was allowed to remain in practice after Titans coach Brian Callahan yelled at the team.

The Titans public relations team made arrangements for Simmons to speak to the host before practice Wednesday.

“He has an understanding of where I’m coming from and I have an understanding where he comes from,” Simmons said. “He has a job and I have a job.”

Simmons is a three-time team captain and signed a four-year, $94 million contract extension before last season. A knee injury caused Simmons to miss the final five games last season. Simmons finished with 5.5 sacks, 10 tackles for a loss, and 11 quarterback hits.

We think this is the tweet that Simmons took exception to:

@BuckReising

Simmons just swung at Latham after some pushing a shoving…refs said 98 would have been tossed in game. He’s back in for the next two and immediately starts a brawl. Sloppy. Simmons needs to lock tf in

The dustup is here.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

EDGE MATTHEW JUDON is back at Patriots practice amid contract concerns.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Matthew Judon has returned to the field.

After head coach Jerod Mayo said in his Thursday morning press conference that he was fully expecting Judon to participate, multiple reporters on the scene have noted that Judon is indeed back for practice.

Mayo opened his presser by saying he’d had a good conversation with Judon, but would like to keep the details of the talks internal.

“Had a great meeting with Judon and we’re all moving forward,” Mayo said. “I remember as a player, it’s always a difficult time — it’s always a difficult time when you go through contract negotiations and things like that. And saying that, for the rest of the team, we’re pushing forward. Fully expect Matthew to be out here today and participate in practice.”

Mayo added that he has a great relationship with Judon and the rest of the players.

“It was good. It was healthy,” Mayo said of his conversation with Judon. “And I always encourage those guys to come in and speak with me or speak with Eliot [Wolf] and that’s what it is. Those things should happen inside of those walls.”

Mayo was asked about Judon not being at the facility on Tuesday and whether or not it was a team-driven decision, but the head coach declined to get into it.

“I’m not ready to talk about that right now,” Mayo said. “What I will say is we gave the guys the day off yesterday to come out here today and be energized. And once again, we fully expect every player to come out here and participate and get better.”

Mayo also declined to address the reporting — which Judon disputed — that New England had offered the edge rusher a contract.

“For me and for Eliot as well, look, those are internal conversations,” Mayo said. “And, once again, we always think about these as long-term relationships — whether we sign a player to an extension, whether we sign a player off the street, whether we release a player, these are long-term relationships. And that’s something that I’ve always taken great pride in. All of those things aside, look, at some point in time, you’ll talk to Matthew. But right now, we just want to keep that in house — from our perspective.”

Judon, 31, is entering the last year of his current contract. He is set to make $6.5 million in base salary, though it is not guaranteed. He’s recorded 32.0 sacks for New England in 38 games over the last three seasons.

NEW YORK JETS

Nick Shook of NFL.com on the aftermath of the animated exchange between QB AARON RODGERS and WR GARRETT WILSON.

Aaron Rodgers is the old man of the New York Jets’ offense, which equips him with the privilege to get on his teammates’ cases when the situation calls for it.

After all, he’s running out of time. Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off an Achilles injury that cost him his first season with New York. Urgency is justifiably omnipresent, and an example of it surfaced this week when Rodgers engaged in an animated exchange with receiver Garrett Wilson during practice.

All is fine, according to Rodgers, who downplayed their interaction on Wednesday.

“I think there’s often appearance versus reality in life and on the football field, and what it appears to be might not always be what the reality actually is, as far as whether or not we’re upset with each other,” Rodgers told reporters. “We’re just passionately talking about the details of a situation that might not have to do with either of us. So, G and I have got a great relationship. We spend time together off the field. On the field, there’s a way of doing things that we both agree on, and when it doesn’t look exactly how we want it to, sometimes there’s some sad conversations that happen.

“I love those conversations. It’s about the details, it’s about winning, it’s about seeing what he sees. He’s got to get on my page, but I’ve got to get on his page, too, because he’s got a whole book that I need to understand fully of skill set and ability and feel and rhythm and all the different things that he does out there.

“So those are good conversations. They might appear to be much more heated than they are, but there’s usually a smile on our face afterwards — at least one of us.”

Such exchanges might alarm the average bystander — just look at the vibes surrounding the Patriots and Matt Judon — but those who understand Rodgers’ place within the Jets organization understand they need to occur in order for New York to climb out of the offensive hole in which they’ve been mired since the Sam Darnold era. As an elite passer with a future place in Canton, Rodgers wants things done in a certain fashion, and won’t rest until that is accomplished.

Fortunately, at the professional level, this is often understood. Wilson is no different.

“He’s vocalizing he was pissed off,” Wilson explained on Wednesday. “I know when we’re getting our ass beat, I’m pissed off. I might not vocalize that way to the guys, but I’m pissed off, too. So it’s kind of a mutual feeling. It’s like, I’m glad he said something.

“It’s not personal. I don’t think anyone in this building takes it that way. It’s like, all right, this is our leader right here. Obviously, he’s not happy with what we’re doing. So it can be a reminder for some of the guys.”

This storyline might remind folks of last season, when the Jets were featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks, and veteran Randall Cobb — a receiver who knew Rodgers quite well from their time shared in Green Bay — warned the rest of the receiving corps that Rodgers wasn’t pleased with how they were performing. It was effectively a message to the Jets pass-catchers to elevate their performance to match Rodgers — or else.

Cobb is gone, and so are the fair warnings. There’s little time to waste, and protecting the feelings of teammates is not a priority. What remains important is striving to achieve, collectively, at a level that justifies Rodgers’ decision to leave Green Bay for New York, and to do so before time runs out on Rodgers’ career.

“That happened a little last year leading up the season, so we got to see it,” Wilson said on Wednesday. “You got to feel the practices without it once he was injured, and maybe how the practice didn’t feel as detailed because of that. It’s people like that [who] demand greatness in your details and your mindset, and you’re watching film and you can feel it when it’s not there, when it’s absent. I think we all appreciate it, but we all know it’s go time when that comes out. Honestly we’re feeling it, too, it’s just certain guys have the ability to verbalize it in that way. He’s one of those.”

Criticism is often good in football, a sport that isn’t made for the physically or mentally weak. It might come off as harsh in the moment, but anything worth having isn’t earned without some discomfort.

Rodgers knows this all too well, and won’t rest on any laurels, especially not after he was forced to sit out and watch his teammates struggle without him. This might be his last go-around, and there’s only one way to do it: with maximum effort.

THIS AND THAT

SUNDAY TICKET APPEAL

The judge in the Sunday Ticket case appears to have some questions about the jury’s huge award of damages.  Joe Reedy of The AP:

The judge who presided over the class-action lawsuit filed by “Sunday Ticket” subscribers against the NFL said the jury did not follow his instructions in determining damages.

U.S. District Judge Philip Gutierrez made the remark as he heard the NFL’s post-trial motion asking that Gutierrez rule for the league if he finds the plaintiffs did not prove their case.

Gutierrez could also order a new trial because the eight-person jury came up with its own calculations for damages.

There isn’t a timeline for when Gutierrez could rule on the motion.

In his jury instructions before closing arguments on June 26, Gutierrez said “damages may not be based on guesswork or speculation. Plaintiffs must prove the reasonableness of each of the assumptions upon which the damages calculation is based.”

The federal jury on June 27 awarded $4.7 billion in damages to residential and commercial subscribers after it ruled the NFL violated antitrust laws in distributing out-of-market Sunday afternoon games on a premium subscription service.

The lawsuit covered 2.4 million residential subscribers and 48,000 businesses in the United States who paid for the package on DirecTV of out-of-market games from the 2011 through 2022 seasons. The lawsuit claimed the league broke antitrust laws by selling the package at an inflated price. The subscribers also say the league restricted competition by offering “Sunday Ticket” only on a satellite provider.

The jury of five men and three women found the NFL liable for $4,610,331,671.74 in damages to the residential class (home subscribers) and $96,928,272.90 in damages to the commercial class (business subscribers).

The jury’s amount did not conform to the college football model ($7.01 billion) by Daniel Rascher, an economist at the University of San Francisco, or the multiple-distributor model ($3.48 billion) by John Zona, who was an expert witness in the case.

Instead, the jury used the 2021 list price of $293.96 and subtracted $102.74, the average price actually paid by residential Sunday Ticket subscribers. The jury then used $191.26, which it considered as the “overcharge,” and multiplied that by the number of subscribers to come up with the damages amount.

“The damages amount is indefensible,” NFL attorney Brian Stekloff said during his remarks to Gutierrez.

Marc Seltzer, representing the “Sunday Ticket” subscribers, countered by saying “the evidence for the jury supported our case from the beginning.”

“Today we asked the district court to set aside the jury’s verdict in this case, which is contrary to the law and unsupported by the evidence presented at trial,” the NFL said in a statement. “The NFL’s media distribution model is the most fan friendly in sports, with all games broadcast locally on free over-the-air television in addition to many other choices available to fans who want even more access to NFL content. We will continue to pursue all avenues in defense of the claims brought in this case.”

Since damages can be tripled under federal antitrust laws, the NFL could end up being liable for $14,121,779,833.92.

The NFL has said it would appeal the verdict. That appeal would go to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals and then possibly the Supreme Court.

Payment of damages, any changes to the “Sunday Ticket” package and/or the ways the NFL carries its Sunday afternoon games would be stayed until all appeals have been concluded.