| NFC NORTH |
| CHICAGOThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB CALEB WILLIAMS, a resident of Tier 3: Williams entered the 2024 draft as the consensus No. 1 quarterback. He enters his second season facing questions about his ability to process and play quickly after taking 68 sacks, third-most in NFL history. “I think that will come in time,” a GM said. “Maybe it is a little bit like Josh (Allen) early in his career, where he has so much good other stuff that you will live with some negative plays, and as he gets more snaps under his belt, that part will come.” Most evaluations reflected some skepticism. “He’s got the talent to go up, but in terms of processing ability and getting the ball out of his hands, it was the worst we played against,” a defensive coordinator said. “He just holds the ball forever. I’m thinking, ‘The ball should go right there! Throw it! Throw it!’ And he did not throw it.” Voter after voter raised the same concerns. “He is definitely a 1 talent,” a head coach said. “I just think it’s going to take him longer than Jayden Daniels. He is not playing fast right now. There is something there. His processing to me was alarming watching the tape.” Some thought new coach Ben Johnson would have to adjust expectations accordingly. “You saw signs and ability, and I also think you saw signs and ability that scare you,” another coach said. “Nervousness in the pocket, inability to see and play on time. But I do not know yet if that was him or coaching. Parts of me wondered if you could get it done with this guy, but it’s good enough to make you think you have a chance.” Voters aren’t necessarily betting against Williams, but they aren’t betting on him, either. “He’s very talented,” another defensive coordinator said. “Ben is more under center. Caleb is more of a gun quarterback. That dynamic is going to be interesting to me. I would not be shocked if the kid plays well. Ben is good. He can adjust. I’m sure they will find a happy medium somewhere.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB KIRK COUSINS, a resident of Tier 3: Cousins is included in QB Tiers in case he lands elsewhere as the Falcons transition to Michael Penix Jr. as their starter. “I look at Rodgers and Kirk Cousins similarly, as older players coming off the Achilles,” an offensive coach said. “If Cousins were starting in Atlanta, I would say Kirk would have a bounce-back year. I think Aaron will bounce back. Both will be healthier, and if that’s the case, we will see the arm talent more.” Voters suspected Falcons ownership was reluctant to trade Cousins after the team invested so much in him. “He is probably in that 4 category right now, because where is he at physically?” an offensive coach said. “Is he starting to deteriorate so much? He should be a 2 if healthy. I just do not know if that is where he is at right now.” Voters found Cousins’ immobility striking last season. “The things they did to keep him clean in the past, he could not do,” a defensive coordinator said, referring to formations and plays putting the quarterback on the move. Cousins peaked in QB Tiers last year with 31 Tier 2 votes and a 2.38 average, both career bests. He set career lows in 2025. “His arm strength was not great and has fallen off a little more,” a former GM said. “I think that affected his confidence. Is that the injury, or is that him declining?” |
| CAROLINAThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB BRYCE YOUNG, a resident of Tier 3: The Panthers ranked 14th in offensive points per game in the 10-game stretch after Young returned to the lineup in Week 8. They were 32nd across his 10 previous starts. There was clearly improvement. What does it mean? “Don’t get fooled by the final games of a season when you are out of it and the teams you are playing are out of it,” a veteran coach said. “That is where his production came from. Everyone is excited about it. Now, you start the season over again, you are playing teams that are game-planning seriously, that have a lot to play for, and it’s different.” An executive from an AFC team cast the lone Tier 2 vote for Young. “I think he has taken that step,” this exec said. “He has learned to play at his size in the National Football League. He was a drop away from beating Philly. If he comes back in with that same type of play, which I think he will with the same coach and coordinator, you will see better, more consistent play.” Most voters questioned how much better Young could get, suggesting the top of Tier 3 could be his ceiling. “I was watching him in pregame, and I’m like, ‘The ball does not jump off his hand very well, and he’s small,'” a defensive coordinator said. “I just don’t know if there’s enough talent to really become a 2, to be honest.” Some thought Carolina could get Tier 2 production from Young with a better supporting cast. “The environment around him was better when he got reinserted to the starting lineup, which was huge, and then (Dave) Canales stopped calling the game with handcuffs,” a GM said. “He was super conservative, and then Bryce has to be in third-and-long the whole game. He’s a great kid, so I want him to be successful. I’m optimistic. I would put him in 3, and then we’ll see how far he can go from there.” |
| NFC WEST |
| ARIZONAThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB KYLER MURRAY, a resident of Tier 3: Murray has stood almost frozen in Tiers balloting since 2023. This year, Baker Mayfield passed him. Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence slipped below him. Is treading water good for a highly paid quarterback stuck atop Tier 3? “I’ve played him too much, and I still think he’s a 3,” a defensive coach said. “I don’t think he wins it for you in the two-minute drill. If you want to be in the top half of this league, you have to win in the two-minute drill and control it. He does not do that.” Another defensive coach who faced Murray saw things similarly. “Creates the mismatch with his legs, not his arm,” this coach said. “He’s Tier 3 with a good-looking baseball slide after his fourth scramble in a two-minute drill.” Murray could use more help. He is one of 32 quarterbacks with at least 25 starts over the past three seasons. None of the 32 has gotten worse support from his defense/special teams on a per-start basis than Murray over that span. “Kyler to me is a tough one,” an offensive coach said. “He is probably in that 3 category. You have to have a strong defense. He has not shown an ability to win it on his own.” Arizona owes its 14-22 record in Murray’s last 36 starts to its defense (-110.4 EPA), not its offense (+41.6 EPA) or its special teams (+0.8 EPA, which is near average). “I think he grew a lot last year,” a defensive coordinator said. “He was a problem for sure when we played him. He cut down turnovers, used his legs a lot more, came into his own after the injury.” Murray’s efficiency fell off after Week 10. “I still don’t trust him,” a GM said. “He has 2 talent but is still a 3 to me. Is he committed to it? He always tends to tail off as the season goes on.” |
| SEATTLEThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB SAM DARNOLD, a resident of Tier 3: The Seahawks swapped out Geno Smith for the younger, less expensive Darnold. Did they upgrade? “I think Geno operates at a higher level, especially in critical moments,” an offensive coach said. “Sam’s two-minute stuff versus Geno’s two-minute stuff, that is where Geno separates himself.” Darnold outdueled Smith in Seattle last season, tossing three touchdown passes, including the game-winner in the final four minutes, as Minnesota beat the Seahawks. Darnold had no interceptions. Smith had two. “Sam, when you put the pieces around him, has as higher ceiling,” another voter said. “This is wild to say, but Geno is maybe better if your team is bad. Sam is better if your team is good.” Smith could be the higher-variance player, by this way of thinking. “Geno can look great, and you can win a game you should not win, but you are also going to lose two or three against teams that are the same as you because he throws a pick in the end zone, plays blind, doesn’t see it,” the voter added. “Sam, when the team is bad, you are going to feel like, f—, this guy is limited, and we cannot overcome it. But when your team is good, you are going to operate really well.” Others think Darnold is well-suited to play in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system, partly because of his familiarity with it. But there is no consensus yet that Seattle has found a long-term successor to Smith. “I think Sam starts one year, and they go with the young kid,” an exec said, referring to 2025 third-round pick Jalen Milroe. Darnold’s poor finish with the Vikings lingered in the minds of voters. “I like Darnold, but the end of the season killed me,” one said. – – – Michael Shawn-Duggar of The Athletic on why we can expect more from RB KENNETH WALKER III this season: — The Seattle Seahawks have changed a lot on offense in the past several months, and if all goes according to plan, Ken Walker III stands to be the biggest beneficiary. Walker is Seattle’s most explosive offensive player. He’s capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. The fourth-year running back has four plays of at least 50 yards since joining the team as a second-round pick in 2022. Not many other guys on the team have proven to be that dangerous. Zach Charbonnet had a 51-yard touchdown run last year, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a couple of 46-yard receptions, but they can’t necessarily turn on the jets the same way Walker can. Walker’s explosiveness pops off the screen when he’s making jump cuts and accelerating to the second level of the defense. His speed is next level: He has maxed out at over 20 mph on 11 plays in his career, which is far more than any current Seahawk — the next closest is Marquez Valdes-Scantling with two — and top 10 among skill players since 2022 (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise). Walker has a different gear than most guys in the league. Seahawks players and coaches have been saying for months that the run game will be their bread and butter. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s predecessors said the same thing. Walker, who’s on his third coordinator in four years, said he believes Kubiak is more of a man of his word because of how often the Seahawks have been practicing run plays compared to previous seasons. “I feel like it’s going to be a physical offense, and we know what we want our identity to be,” Walker said. “I like the aspect of running the ball, but also getting out of the backfield and catching the ball. It’s great.” If Kubiak’s unit can walk the walk to back up the talk from this summer, Walker should have a big year in this scheme, which is built around a perimeter attack but also has changeups to keep the defense honest. Walker’s ability to make quick decisions, explode upfield and punish defensive backs who take poor angles should be on full display in this system. “We’ve got all types of schemes that we can do, but I feel like I’m just an explosive back, and we can make plays,” Walker said. Walker came on strong as a rookie when given the opportunity to be the lead back. He had a 69-yard rushing touchdown against the New Orleans Saints right after Rashaad Penny went down with a leg fracture. On that play, Walker quickly found a cutback lane and was off to the races, untouched. Two weeks later, Walker found the edge on a toss play and ran 74 yards to the house against the Los Angeles Chargers. He finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Over the past two seasons, Walker has run behind bad offensive lines and played for coordinators committed to pass-centric offenses. It’s hard for any running back to thrive under those circumstances. Sure, Walker can turn nothing into something as well as anyone, but Seattle can’t build an offensive identity around his improvisational skills. Walker and all the other running backs must be able to trust that their blockers will create creases and allow them to generate explosive plays. Seattle’s offensive lines haven’t been reliable in that way. There are 44 NFL running backs with at least 200 carries over the past two seasons. Walker’s carries have gone for zero or negative yards at the fifth-highest rate (21.5 percent). Charbonnet has the eighth-highest rate (20.6). Charbonnet ranks 32nd in yards before contact per carry in that span, and Walker ranks 39th. Simply having a league-average run blocking unit would do wonders for Seattle’s running backs this season. Walker has been dealing with foot soreness and appears to be on a maintenance schedule that sprinkles in days off. He was a full participant in Tuesday’s padded practice, but it’s unclear if he’ll suit up with the rest of the starters against the Kansas City Chiefs on Friday night. “We have a plan for Ken, and we’re sticking to the plan,” coach Mike Macdonald said of Walker being in and out of the lineup during camp.– – –It’s difficult to project how running back carries will be split. The last two offensive coordinators have treated Walker like the lead guy and Charbonnet as the backup on early downs. Charbonnet is the better pass protector, so he has gotten most of the snaps in obvious passing situations and two-minute drills. The setup should be similar this season, given how explosive Walker has looked in practice. But it’s worth noting that when Kubiak was asked during a KIRO-AM radio interview to list the qualities that make up an elite running back in today’s game, he spoke highly of Charbonnet. “No. 1 is intelligence,” Kubiak said. “No. 2 is availability, guys that are available the whole game. The best backs I’ve been around are super smart. Guys that you give them difficult game plans, and they can go out and make adjustments. Our top two guys are doing really good things, but Charbonnet, his mental approach to the game is extremely impressive. He does not flinch. If he ever has a question, you know you didn’t coach it good enough, because he’s that on it.” The availability piece will be key for Walker, who was limited to just 11 games last season due to oblique, ankle and calf injuries (he was inactive only four times in his first two years). Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are often used as a point of reference when describing Seattle’s new scheme. Another good comparison, especially when assessing Walker’s home run potential, is what the scheme has done for speedsters like De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert in Miami. The Dolphins’ usage of fullback Alec Ingold in that perimeter-based run game illustrates what this offense can do for Walker, health permitting. “I know (Walker) hasn’t been to every practice, but the ones he’s been able to attend, you see the flashes of his talent,” Kubiak said Tuesday. “He was out there today making plays in the pass game and the run game. I see him continuing to get better with reps.” Even if Walker doesn’t play Friday night, Seattle’s second preseason game is another good test for the first-team offense (I don’t expect left tackle Charles Cross or center Olu Oluwatimi to play). A second consecutive outing running the ball effectively would offer another data point to suggest that this year will be different. And if so, that’s great news for Walker, who’s entering the final year of his rookie deal. “I just want to be positive and keep my mind on football and not a contract and all that,” Walker said. “I just want to make a positive impact on my team and go out there and play to the best of my ability. That’s what I’ve been wanting to do from my rookie year until now. I’m going to just keep that same mindset and not worry about (my) contract and everything.” As for playing in a run-first offense in a contract year, Walker said: “There’s more opportunities for me to show what I can do on the field.” – – – And here are some shoutouts for rookie WR TORY HORTON, compiled by Shawn-Duggar: It is common for rookies to receive praise from veterans in their position group or on their side of the ball, as Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tory Horton has. “He can play,” Jaxon Smith-Njigba said of Horton on Tuesday. “He’s a baller.” One way to tell that a rookie is really making an impression is when guys on the other side of the ball single him out or go out of their way to mention his performance. During Horton’s news conference on Aug. 4, cornerback Riq Woolen crashed the party to reveal that his nickname for the fifth-round rookie is “Jerry Rice Jr.” On Monday, veteran cornerback Shaquill Griffin was asked to assess the receivers he’s been facing in practice. “I feel like I’ve been seeing the rookie show up a lot lately,” Griffin said. “There’s a lot of plays where you don’t see a lot of rookies move the way he moves, make the plays he makes. It just shows the type of room that we have back there to get a chance to have the rookie being on the same level as some of these older guys.” Griffin clarified that “the rookie” he was referring to is Horton. Griffin spent time away from the team dealing with a personal matter, so he hasn’t had time to learn everyone’s name. But you don’t have to be around a Seahawks practice very long to notice the guy in the No. 15 jersey making plays. “(He) can go up and get a ball,” said quarterback Drew Lock, who threw Horton a 10-yard touchdown pass against the Las Vegas Raiders in the preseason opener Thursday night. “At the same time, you talk about receivers being able to go up and get balls, and low footballs get looked over. Balls at the knees, balls at the shins. When you’re ripping an out cut at 100 mph, and I leave it a little low and you can go down and get it and keep your feet in bounds — really everywhere you can throw it to him.” Horton may have been available in the 5th round because his 2024 season at Colorado State was cut short by a knee injury. But he went for more than 1,100 yards receiving in the previous two seasons for the CSU Rams. |
| AFC WEST |
| DENVERThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB BO NIX, a resident of Tier 3: Nix, the sixth quarterback selected in the 2024 draft, ranks second among them to Washington’s Daniels heading into the group’s second season. “He looks pretty sharp, he knows where to go with the ball, he runs better than you think, he throws better than you think,” a defensive coordinator said. “He looks like he is a good competitor who makes people around him better. That is what your quarterback has to do.” One GM whose team was not in the market to draft a quarterback said Nix was much better than he anticipated. He thought Nix would be a “dink-and-dunk” quarterback. “I think the biggest strength is he is very mobile and can keep his eyes down the field when he’s moving,” an offensive coach said. “He made big plays on the move. That being said, I’m being generous with the 2. Now you have people with tape on him. The one thing I know about Sean (Payton), he is no fool. He is going to get players in there. They should not have a shortage of playmakers.” The fit in Denver appears excellent. “He was fortunate having a strong system and a strong defense,” a former GM said. “If he has a chance to be more, it is because that system really fits him well.” Another former GM said there’s nothing surprising about Nix’s early success. “He’s got processing, he’s got vision and he’s got accuracy,” this ex-GM said. “He is definitely going to win. He has a chance to elevate.” One coach predicted the hierarchy of the 2024 quarterback draft class would change over the next couple of years, like some other classes have recently. Could Nix overtake Daniels? “What we are going to see is Sean Payton’s ability to develop a quarterback relative to Kliff Kingsbury’s ability to do that,” this coach said. “Both players appear to be dialed into the profession of quarterbacking — taking care of the body, coming in early, leaving late, being all about ball. I’m interested in seeing who is able to grow the most this coming year. I actually think Bo Nix is going to win out in that.” |
| KANSAS CITYLike TE TRAVIS KELCE, QB PATRICK MAHOMES feels his game fell of last year. Nate Taylor of ESPN.com on what he has done about it: PATRICK MAHOMES’ FIRST deep pass of training camp was noteworthy. Almost a month ago, the Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback, did his usual three-step dropback from the shotgun. The moment was the opening play of the team’s first 7-on-7period. Mahomes didn’t even look toward tight end Travis Kelce, who ran a short route in the middle of the field. Mahomes sought for more. He unleashed a deep strike, a pass that traveled more than 40 yards. The fans in attendance produced their first loud roar, the result of Mahomes’ pass being perfectly placed over cornerback Jaylen Watson into the hands of Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs’ fastest receiver. While Worthy celebrated the highlight for a few seconds, Mahomes didn’t. Instead, Mahomes kept the practice’s tempo upbeat, his desire to make more exceptional passes. His reason for such was simple. “I wanted to up my mentality,” Mahomes said. “Sometimes you get to camp and you just want to go out there and dominate the day. I want to dominate every single rep. No days off. You have to get better and better every day.” In his ninth year, Mahomes has already accomplished his first goal of the Chiefs’ 2025 campaign. While the Chiefs had several interesting storylines during camp — such as rookie Josh Simmons winning the starting left tackle role, wideout Rashee Rice retaining his No. 1 receiver role and the progress of several rookies on defense — Mahomes’ passing results in the 17 practices at Missouri Western State were excellent and exquisite, even by his usual lofty standards. The Chiefs hope this year’s camp will be the foundation — and perhaps the launching point — for Mahomes’ performance this season to reach yet another elevated level, one that will lift the offense to become more dynamic and feared by opposing defenses again. One of Mahomes’ most impressive improvements in camp was his pinpoint accuracy, his placement of the ball even surprising some of his teammates. “It’s incredible,” tight end Robert Tonyan said. “The windows he’s fitting them in, with the anticipation, is just awesome. You see Pat getting better every day. He’s making those hard throws look easy.” Coach Andy Reid, entering his 27th season, is known for conducting one of the NFL’s most grueling camps — and that’s for his quarterbacks, too. Mahomes spent most practices attempting deep pass after deep pass. Some days, the Chiefs’ defenders didn’t come close to intercepting Mahomes, let alone getting a hand on the ball. “It’s always 10 times harder going against your actual defense in practice,” Worthy said of Mahomes while smiling. “You see these guys every day. With Pat, we (as receivers) call it a long handoff. It’s the normal thing with Pat, man.” Unlike previous years, Mahomes didn’t spend many camp reps extending the play by scrambling before throwing the ball. Staying in the pocket more often, Mahomes polished his modified footwork, which he emphasized in the offseason, whether in workout sessions with Bobby Stroupe, his longtime trainer, or when watching film of himself last season with offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. “There’s an obsession that he has with being perfect at what he does,” Nagy said of Mahomes. “He wants to be great. The accuracy part is critical, being friendly to the receivers. Really, from the hips down is one focus that we have.” HAVING A STABLE, more consistent base appears to have helped Mahomes improve his precision on deep passes. Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs know they’ll need a surplus of such highlights to help the team reach a fourth consecutive Super Bowl. Last season, Mahomes struggled at such attempts. He completed a career-low 39.5% of his passes in which the ball traversed at least 15 yards downfield, ranking 29th. He also had more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (four) on deep throws. “Last year was abnormal,” Mahomes said. “We definitely want to push the ball down the field and push the ball into tighter windows this year.” – – – Some highlights from Taylor Swift’s appearance on the Kelce Brothers podcast. Brad Crawford of CBSSports.com: Can you blame Caitlin Clark for being a Swiftie? The Indiana Fever star and reigning WNBA rookie of the year accurately predicted social media would malfunction this week during Wednesday night’s record-setting episode of the “New Heights” podcast, which marked Taylor Swift’s first public interview in two years. “Swifties so powerful we broke the internet,” Clark wrote on X in response to her message from earlier the day that read, “Are we sure YouTube isn’t going to crash tonight?” As the episode with Swift, Travis Kelce and Jason Kelce approaching its second hour, the feed went dark as Clark and over a million other viewers waited nervously for the episode to come back. “We hit a glitch but will be back shortly!!!” the official New Heights account wrote on X during the shuffle. “Shoutout all the 92%ers and swifties for actually helping us break the internet.” Clark attended a Kansas City playoff game with Swift last season in Kelce’s family suite after she received an exclusive invite from the pop star. Clark previously attended a show during Swift’s Eras Tour in November and the former No. 1 overall pick said the singer gave her four bags of merchandise. Later, the invite to a game was accepted by Clark, a long-time Chiefs fan. “I had family in Kansas City, and I grew up in Des Moines, Iowa, which is only three hours from Kansas City,” Clark said earlier this year on the New Heights podcast. “That’s just the closest NFL team.” Swift announces new albumSwift used Kelce’s New Heights podcast to announce her 12th studio album, The Life of a Showgirl, which was made available for pre-order Tuesday at 12:12 a.m. ET in a clip recorded on the tight end’s show with his brother. During a snippet that went live earlier this week, Swift revealed an unlocked mint green briefcase on screen with orange “T.S.” letters across the front and then pulled out a blurry record. The pop singer, songwriter and billionaire is coming off the highest-grossing tour in music history. Kelce previously revealed on his podcast that he tried to give Swift his number on a “friendship bracelet” after attending one of her concerts in Kansas City, Missouri during July 2023. He later detailed his crush on the singer during an episode with brother Jason Kelce, formerly of the Philadelphia Eagles. “I was disappointed that she doesn’t talk before or after her shows because she has to save her voice for the 44 songs that she sings,” Travis Kelce told Jason Kelce during a podcast episode in 2023. “So I was a little butt-hurt I didn’t get to hand her one of the bracelets I made for her.” |
| LAS VEGASThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB GENO SMITH, a resident of Tier 3: Smith, making his third consecutive appearance in Tier 3, inched up to a career-best 2.90 average. But this was more a case of Smith receiving fewer votes in Tier 4 than it was about him commanding more votes in Tier 2. “Geno is pretty good at everything, but nothing stands out as an elite trait,” a defensive coordinator said. “There is not one X-Man power where you are like f—, this guy.” For a player whose average grade is in the middle, there’s considerable variance in opinions on Smith. “He has as good of arm talent as anyone, he is accurate and he has won games where he was the reason in some of those fourth-quarter victories and shootouts,” an offensive coordinator said. “He has had some struggles, too. What prevents him from being in that elite level? In the games that are really, really hard, he has not overcome those, although they did beat San Francisco this past year.” Another coordinator polled his staff, reporting that the room was split on whether Smith belonged in Tier 2 or 3. One person whose confidence in Smith has never wavered: Pete Carroll, the coach who revived Smith’s career in Seattle and brought him to Las Vegas. “I think he’s a 2 because when the game is on the line, he can make the throws to win,” a head coach said. “He stands in there. Guys that can stand in there, take hits when the game is on the line, whether it’s third down or two-minute, those guys are legit.” This coach placed Smith among the NFL’s top 10 or 15 in two-minute proficiency, lauding him for his play over the years in shootouts against Detroit and Dallas. Others see Smith as a quarterback whose team will always be looking to upgrade, with one defensive coordinator suggesting Smith doesn’t solve post-snap coverage rotations quickly enough, leading to turnovers and negative plays. “He is a game manager who is going to turn the ball over and can’t carry it,” a coach with multiple games against Smith said. “Even when the team is good, you are always going to feel like we don’t quite have the guy.” |
| AFC NORTH |
| PITTSBURGHThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB AARON RODGERS, a resident of Tier 3: Rodgers’ average tier vote plummeted a full point from last year, a drop more than twice as large as for any other player (Daniel Jones fell by nearly one-half tier). It’s strange seeing him way down here. “You are hoping for Brett Favre to the Minnesota Vikings, but they had Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and a bunch of dudes,” one exec said. The Steelers acquired receiver DK Metcalf. “Aaron has had good route runners around him when he was at his best,” a defensive coach said. “I don’t know who the route runner is on that team. Metcalf is like a bully, jump-ball, kill-you-in-the-red-zone guy. Truthfully, I have no idea how that works there.” Rodgers’ age (41), late arrival to the team (June), lack of history with Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) and recent injury history (torn Achilles in September 2023) are among the factors working against success in Pittsburgh. “Too slow to consistently win with his legs, yet his mind and hard count will have your disguise broken and your D-line in the neutral zone multiple times a game,” another defensive coach said. Initial reports suggest it’ll take time for Rodgers and the offense to jell. “They all have to be going into this with eyes wide open,” an offensive coach said. “Aaron obviously feels comfortable with Mike (Tomlin) and Arthur. He doesn’t need to be No. 1 in the league in passing anymore. He needs to protect the football and throw touchdowns. He can still do that.” There’s a good chance Rodgers will be healthier this year than last, when he was still working his way back from the Achilles injury. “He can still see, and he can still fit balls in there,” a former head coach said. “He can’t be dynamic like he was — scrambling, avoiding the rush and throwing it 60 yards down the field — but I still think he can play.” – – – Coach Mike Tomlin is touting his defense. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The last time the Steelers took the field in a meaningful game, they allowed 299 rushing yards to the Ravens in 28-14 loss in the wild card round of the playoffs. No Steelers team ever allowed more rushing yards in a postseason game, so it hasn’t been that long since the Steelers defense made history. Head coach Mike Tomlin said on WDVE this week that he thinks this year’s group is capable of making more, but he meant it in a positive way. The Steelers have added veterans Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and Juan Thornhill to the secondary since the end of the season and Derrick Harmon, Jack Sawyer, and Yahya Black joined the front seven in the draft. Adding them to the likes of T.J. Watt, Joey Porter Jr., and Alex Highsmith led wide receiver DK Metcalf to call it the best defense he’s ever seen. Thornhill made the same comment on WDVE and Tomlin was asked for his response to those claims. “We feel really good about the prospects of this group. We do,” Tomlin said. “We’ve got to write that story. We’ve got enough talent, we’ve got enough schematics to do big, big things. When I say big things, I’m talking about historic things.” One big piece of the defensive puzzle in Pittsburgh is defensive lineman Cam Heyward, but he’s been limited this summer as he looks for an adjustment to his contract after being named an All-Pro last season. A drop in production at that spot because Heyward is missing or not fully prepared for the season would limit the defense’s ability to write the story Tomlin hopes to read come the end of the year. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| JACKSONVILLEThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB TREVOR LAWRENCE, a resident of Tier 3: Lawrence peaked in Tier 2 entering the 2023 season. He’s fallen each of the past two years, with only flickering hope among voters that he’ll ever challenge for Tier 1. “I thought he would be better,” a head coach said, “but he just isn’t naturally accurate.” Injuries were a big factor last season. “I always thought Lawrence was a unique talent from a body-type standpoint — so athletic for a guy that tall — and the way he played at Clemson was outstanding,” another head coach said. “But when I watched him this year (2024), the instinct wasn’t as high there. He looked hesitant. He had some ugly tape.” The Jaguars are betting that improved health and new coach Liam Coen can help Lawrence get back to where he stood entering 2023, when he ranked eighth in Tiers voting and commanded 36 votes in the top two tiers. A coach impressed by Lawrence two years ago questioned how well the QB was seeing coverages after the snap in 2024. “He hasn’t proved that he can take the team up a level or make the team play better than they are,” a former GM said. “I definitely think Liam Coen can help him if he is able to be helped.” A defensive coach who has faced Lawrence multiple times, including in 2024, didn’t see anything special. “He has missed a bunch of schemed-up shots (downfield),” this coach said. “There is nothing that scares you about the kid. How is he beating you unless he happens to hit on some of those deep ones? I don’t know how much of that is scheme versus what he does and cannot do. There is nothing elite about him from a big-picture standpoint.” |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOMike Florio shines a harsh light on how the 2nd episode of Hard Knocks treated the now-resolved hold in of RB JAMES COOK: The first episode of Hard Knocks featuring the Buffalo Bills ignored the contract battle with running back James Cook. In episode two, it was unavoidable. Still, the 55-minute installment kept the issue to a minimum, checking the box and moving on. “The business side can be rough,” narrator Liev Schreiber says within the first ten minutes of the episode. “G.M. Brandon Beane is dealing with his first hold-in in nine seasons. Star running back James Cook is in the final year of the contract he signed as a rookie. Cook wants his next one to be a bit bigger.” That’s accurate, but it glosses over the fact that the contract Cook signed was non-negotiable. It was driven by his draft slot, and he had no power over the money he has been paid through three seasons, or the money he would have been paid in 2025. “Contract disputes can be awkward,” Schreiber adds. “No one likes them. But at least they’ve evolved. Cook is with his teammates every day, present like a pro.” “The old-school way of holding out is the player wasn’t around,” G.M. Brandon Beane says in the next shot. “They were working out at some other facility, they’re not in meetings. The hold-in that’s kind of going on these days is, the player is in meetings participating in most everything except actual practice itself.” Again, that’s accurate. But it’s a direct product of changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement that make it much harder for players who are under contract to withhold services by staying away. So some of them show up and choose not to practice, citing business considerations or an injury — real, embellished, or imagined. “Our philosophy is to draft, develop, and re-sign our own,” Beane says. “And it starts with ownership, them giving us the resources to do that. The perfect world is James back on the practice field and, at some point, you know, we’re able to keep him here in Buffalo. It doesn’t have to happen now. I’m hopeful a year from now that James Cook is wearing the Buffalo Bills’ red, white, and blue. I love James so much, you feel like he’s a guy you drafted and developed. And a lot of times, these guys feel your sons or your younger brothers, however you look at it. I also have to manage the whole team and the cap and the cash and all those things, and so the whole puzzle has to work together.” And that was it. No further mention was made of the situation, even though it was the biggest news coming from the preseason opener, on which the latter phases of the episode focused. Bills coach Sean McDermott wanted Cook to play in the game, and Cook declined. Think about that one. The most newsworthy aspect of the Bills’ first preseason game was swept completely under the rug by Hard Knocks. It’s no surprise. The Bills didn’t want to do Hard Knocks, and the Bills undoubtedly exercised their ability to leave anything they wanted on the cutting-room floor. They surely would have preferred to ignore Cook altogether. That would have been pretty ridiculous. Then again, not mentioning his refusal to honor the head coach’s request to play in the preseason opener was kind of ridiculous, too. |
| MIAMIThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB TUA TAGOVIALOA, a resident of Tier 3: The Dolphins’ offense averaged 24.1 points per game in 11 games with Tagovailoa in 2024, compared to 13.3 in six games without him. “They literally cannot operate the offense when he is not out there, and then they are a top-10 offense when he is out there,” an offensive coach said. “I don’t even like watching him play, but at this point, dude, I can’t say you are not that guy.” That voter was among a dozen placing Tagovailoa in Tier 2, half as many as in 2024. “He is probably a 2 on the production, but if the game is on the line, I’d be scared to death if he were my quarterback,” an exec said. Another voter called Tagovailoa “damn near the most accurate quarterback” in the NFL. “It is the off-script plays that he doesn’t have,” a defensive coach said. “And if it is not paired with the run game to draw the under coverage, then you don’t get full utilization of his accuracy on the second and third level.” The result is a quarterback who can look really good or really bad, depending on the situation. “He does a really good job of hitting these play-action windows and putting it on guys where it’s catch-and-run and has good anticipation for it and can get it out of his hands,” another defensive coach said. “I have yet to see him carry his team when they are not clicking in other phases. Has Miami ever won where their run game is getting killed, they can’t hit play-action stuff and it’s just time for Tua to sling the ball?” |
| NEW ENGLANDThoughts from the panel of experts assembled by Mike Sando of The Athletic on QB DRAKE MAYE, a resident of Tier 3: Maye, the third quarterback drafted in the 2024 class, checks in third among the group here, behind Daniels and Nix. “Daniels and Nix went into a helluva lot better situations than Drake did,” an offensive coach said. “(Maye) is a big athlete that has good vision, can push the ball up the field, he can run, I think he’s coachable. Josh (McDaniels) does a good job of eliminating negative plays with a quarterback, so I think that will help him.” Maye took 32 sacks and suffered 10 interceptions in 12 starts. He barely played in two of the three starts that New England won, exiting one with an injury (the Patriots rested him after one series in Week 18). “Drake turned the ball over a lot, he got injured and had a concussion,” another coach said. “But it was tough what they were doing offensively under Jerod Mayo.” A defensive coach whose team faced Maye pushed back against some of the early excitement. “I remember coming out of our game, and people were like, ‘Oh, we saw the future,’ and I’m like, ‘I don’t know about that; he made about three throws,'” this coach said. “Let’s not Winston Wolf it yet.” The situation around Maye led some to punt on firm evaluations. “His team was so bad,” an offensive coordinator said. “Vince Lombardi couldn’t have gotten that team any more wins than they got. Maye has promise. There is talent. There is ability. I think he looked very natural at the position.” A head coach said he thought Maye’s physical stature made him a good fit for the weather in New England. Voters generally thought Maye could become a 2. “The person and the leadership and the ability to run made him good as a rookie,” another offensive coordinator said. “He can ascend pretty quick if he can start to hit progressions.” |
| THIS AND THAT |
| RIP LIONEL TAYLORLionel Taylor, a star of the AFL in the 1960s has passed away. Jeff Legwold ofESPN.com: Lionel Taylor, an original Denver Bronco and a member of their Ring of Fame, has died, according to the team. Taylor, who was 89, died Aug. 6, his family confirmed to the Broncos. He was a member of the 1960 Broncos — the first year the franchise played in the newly formed AFL — and was the first receiver in either AFL or NFL history to have at least 100 receptions in a season. Taylor also is believed to have been the first African American coach to be named a coordinator in the NFL, serving as the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator in the 1980 and 1981 seasons. Taylor, who was not selected in the 1958 NFL draft after his playing career at New Mexico Highlands University, played semipro football before he entered the NFL in 1959 as a linebacker for the Chicago Bears. He was signed by the Broncos in 1960 and led the AFL in receiving in five of the league’s first six seasons. His 100 receptions in 14 games in 1961 was the first such season in pro football history and was a team record that stood until Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey each had at least 100 receptions in 2000. Taylor’s 102.9 receiving yards per game — he finished with 1,235 yards on 92 catches in 12 games — in 1960 is still a team record. Taylor retired as a player after the 1968 season, his second with the Houston Oilers. In his seven seasons with the Broncos, he had at least 77 receptions six times and topped 80 receptions three times. He was one of four inductees in 1984 as the original members of the team’s Ring of Fame. He is still ranked fourth in Broncos franchise history in receptions (543) and receiving yards (6,872) and tied for fifth in touchdown receptions (44). In a long career as a coach, Taylor earned two Super Bowl rings with the Pittsburgh Steelers as their receivers coach with two eventual Hall of Famers — Lynn Swann and John Stallworth — at wide receiver. Taylor often joked, “It didn’t take much coaching there.” Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy, a former Steelers player, has often cited Taylor as an important influence for African American coaches in the years that followed. Taylor also coached with the Cleveland Browns in the NFL, Oregon State and Texas Southern (head coach) in the college ranks, and the London Monarchs (head coach) in the World League of American Football. |
| FANTASY FAVORITE WRs (AND ONE NOT TO DRAFT)From Matt Harmon of YahooSports.com: Three targets I want at costNormally, I don’t end up naming someone from my top-24 overall players in an exercise like this, but Drake London is someone whom I’m multiple position spots ahead of ADP and a full round higher on than the consensus. London is knocking on the door of being one of the best and most complete wideouts in the game and could push to lead the NFL in targets this year. He had an outrageous 38.9% target share in Michael Penix Jr.’s three starts at the end of 2025. Ricky Pearsall came back from offseason injuries that stalled his practice time, not to mention an August gunshot wound, to get on the field as a rookie. It took some time before he looked like himself but he was smoking man coverage toward the end of 2024. He can play inside and out, while winning as a separator at all three levels. He’s the 49ers wide receiver I want to draft this year with Brandon Aiyuk coming back from a multi-ligament knee injury that will cost him time this year. I’m cheating and using my third answer to offer up both Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden. We can group them together, as they are Round 1 rookie wide receivers who go outside the top-115 overall picks. Neither was expected to be a major Year 1 hit because of the crowded pass-catching corps on their new teams. However, injuries have opened up the door for both to challenge those expectations. They also happen to play for two offenses that should be among the most efficient units in 2025. Egbuka and Golden were second and third in Reception Perception’s success rate vs. zone coverage, behind only Travis Hunter, among prospects I charted in this year’s draft. Round 1 rookie wide receivers pushed down for ambiguous target trees are great bets in fantasy when they go this late. One fade at costAt this point, Tyreek Hill has never once shown up in my draft plans for 2025. He still goes high based on his name, but there are multiple reasons to be scared off. The most important is that Hill showed significant signs of decline last year. Not only was this expressed in production-based efficiency metrics, but his play in isolation fell short of his career expectations. Perhaps Hill can still be a helpful player as he ages but I’ll bet against him getting back to elite form at age 31 after a dip like that. We’ve also not touched on some of the environmental concerns we have about the Dolphins’ offense, and the seemingly constant tension between Hill, his team and his quarterback. If I’m taking a shot on a Dolphins wide receiver, I’ll go with Jaylen Waddle, who is still in his prime and goes much later. |
| 2024 DRAFTRyan Wilson of CBSSports.com on how important preseason games are for analyzing rookie quarterbacks: The NFL Draft is the ultimate equalizer. When Roger Goodell makes his way to the podium to announce the first-overall pick, the slate has effectively been wiped clean for every team; the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the three-win Tennessee Titans now have the same record, and if you can nail those 72 hours, from Thursday through Saturday, you can change your organization’s fortune in just a few months. Look what the Washington Commanders did in 2024; they selected quarterback Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall, promptly went 12-5, won twice in the playoffs and made it to the NFC Championship game for the first time since the 1991 season. That outfit last had a winning record in 2015 and last won a playoff game in 2005. It certainly helped the 2024 Commanders — some might argue immeasurably — that Josh Harris was now the new owner, and he got it right with first-year general manager Adam Peters and new head coach Dan Quinn. But it always starts with the quarterback. And that brings us to the 2025 preseason. It’s been almost four months since Cameron Ward and Jaxson Dart were first-rounders, Tyler Shough was taken in Round 2 and Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. All four rookies held their own in Week 1 of the preseason, and in several cases were really impressive. For me, it’s the unofficial start to the NFL season because there are few things I look forward to more than breaking down these performances on “With the First Pick,” the podcast I co-host with former Titans general manager Ran Carthon. He and I did that in the most recent episode. While there are plenty of good — even great — things you can say about some of the big-time throws Sanders made as the Browns starter, or the chemistry Ward and Calvin Ridley already seem to have, or the touch Dart and Shough showed on their respective touchdown passes, the bigger question is this: How much can (and should) we read into these preseason efforts when assessing where these young quarterbacks are in their development and on the depth chart? Plenty of fans in Cleveland thought Sanders should’ve been battling for the starting job before his preseason debut. And although Ward is the starter in Tennessee and Dart is the backup in New York, Shough is very much in the running for QB1 in New Orleans. Before looking ahead, however, I want to look back at how some rookie passers played in their preseason debuts, to both inform and maybe even temper our expectations going forward. From 2019-2025, 85 rookie quarterbacks attempted at least five throws in Week 1 of the preseason, according to TruMedia. Here are some of the names who cracked the top 10 in passer rating among those 85: 2019: Daniel Jones: 5 of 5 passing, 67 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (158.3 passer rating)2023: Dorian Thompson-Robinson: 9-10, 102 yds, 1/0 (142.5)2024: Joe Milton: 4-6, 54 yds, 0/0 (134.7)2022: Kenny Pickett: 13-25, 95 yds, 2/0 (132.6) Kenny Pickett was even better in the 2023 preseason, heading into his second year in the league. He was so good, in fact, that (my former WTFP co-host) Rick Spielman and I spent a non-trivial part of this August 2023 podcast talking him up for the huge strides he appeared to have made. (In related news: That “Pickett has that look” two-week stretch feels like a million years ago.) The larger point from those four names is that we probably shouldn’t put too much stock in these preseason showings. In part because it’s a miniscule sample size, in part because you’re often facing second- and third-team defenses who are running basic looks, and in part because the players get faster and the windows get smaller once the regular season gets underway. Plus, there’s this: Jones is now on his third team after flashing briefly for the Giants in 2022 in head coach Brian Daboll’s first year with the team. DTR struggled in Cleveland, going 1-4 as a starter in the regular season, completing just 52% of his passes with one touchdown and 10 interceptions. He was traded to Philly in the offseason.Milton might have the biggest arm in the league (and it’s probably not close), but he served as Drake Maye’s backup in 2024. We saw him in Week 17 against the Bills and, to his credit, looked like a Hall of Famer. (Had we seen more of that at Michigan and Tennessee back in college, Milton would’ve been a top 10 pick.) He was traded to the Cowboys this offseason, and he’s currently battling for the backup job behind Dak Prescott. Pickett struggled in two seasons in Pittsburgh before the team shipped him to the Eagles before the 2024 season. Philly traded him to Cleveland this offseason as part of the DTR deal.You could make a case that the Steelers didn’t do Pickett any favors by keeping Matt Canada as offensive coordinator, but the larger point remains: Pickett — along with Jones and DTR — certainly looked the part of starting NFL quarterback based on the preseason (it’s too early to pass judgment either way on Milton), but we saw very little evidence once they all got into the regular season. So with this current rookie class of quarterbacks likely to play a lot over the next two weeks of the preseason, back to the original question: How much stock are we putting into these August games when trying to evaluate these guys? Here’s what Carthon had to say on the podcast (and it might surprise you): “It all matters. … It all matters because these are real live game reps where you can’t predict where guys are going to be. In practice, these guys have gone against their same team’s defense for a long time. They know who their teammates are, what their teammates can and can’t do. And now you’re in game situations where there’s a two-minute situation, a situation where the offense is backed up, a third-and-long situation, a third-and-short situation. “So now you’re getting to play situational football. You get to put [these rookies] in high-pressure situations to see how they’re going to respond and react. And these rookie quarterbacks we’re talking about (Sanders, Ward, Dart), they’ve all answered the bell. “Now you want to see them take the next step because a lot of it is mental. Can you take it from the classroom to the practice field and then to the game field? What do we want to see now? We want to see you move the ball. We want to see you score points. We want to see you have command [of the huddle and the offense]. We want to see you change plays at the line — get us out of bad plays. That will be the next step for these young guys.” Carthon’s response wasn’t what I was expecting. It was different from what you might imagine a lot of grizzled, seen-it-all NFL folks might say: “It’s a glorified practice — don’t read too much into August football.” But I reached out to a league evaluator who echoed Carthon’s thoughts. The play of Sanders, Ward, Dart — and even Shough — was, if nothing else, encouraging. There was no avert-your-eyes, crashing-and-burning moments in real time; instead, all three quarterbacks showed they could handle that moment, and were ready to take on more. Again, I would refer you to that list above of “rookie quarterbacks who balled out in the preseason” to serve as a cautionary reminder, but on the spectrum of “Preseason is a waste of time when it comes to evaluating young quarterbacks” to “Let’s submit their names for immediate enshrinement in Canton,” the consensus seems to be closer to the Hall of Fame, even if just barely. And that consensus includes Spielman, who was my co-host on the podcast for more than 220 shows before joining the Jets front office. I went back in the archives to get his perspective, and it’s in line with what we’ve already heard: The preseason is a crucial time for rookie quarterbacks to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL, and there is no replacement for live reps against fresh faces, which (as Carthon noted above), can’t be replicated in practice. It also provides quarterbacks a chance to work on reading defenses they haven’t seen, both before and after the snap, even with the understanding that these will be basic defensive alignments and schemes. (Further proof that there’s plenty to learn no matter how vanilla the look might appear: Anthony Richardson got fooled by late safety rotation against the Ravens last week, missed a hot read and got blasted by David Ojabo for his troubles.) Spielman went on to point out that there’s no substitute for honing those skills in as-close-to-game-like environments. And in true Spielman fashion, he warned not to overreact to the early results, good or bad, and instead the focus should be on how the quarterback is progressing from OTAs to training camp, and from training camp through the preseason. Ultimately, preseason isn’t a definitive indicator of success or failure; it’s just one more piece in the puzzle. And that last point leads me to this: For the early success Jones, DTR and Pickett had, do you know who really struggled in their preseason debut? CJ Stroud. In 2023, against the Patriots, Stroud went 2 of 4 for 13 yards, threw an interception and was sacked once. He’s now one of the best quarterbacks who, despite a trying 2024 season, has led the Texans to back-to-back 10-win seasons and won playoff games in each of his first two years in the league. So, yes, the preseason does matter. But it’s only the first couple pages of the first chapter of the book. |
