The Daily Briefing Thursday, August 20, 2020

AROUND THE NFL

Daily Briefing

The NFL has a rule banning pumped in crowd noise and teams have been severely punished for violating it.  But, in the age of Covid-19 and empty stadiums, it is, unlike Big Ten decisions, being revisited.  Quinton Mayo of NBCSports.com:

The coronavirus pandemic has drastically altered the landscape of sports across the globe, for obvious reasons. With large gatherings being prohibited, sports leagues have been experimenting with ways that allow the games to maintain an authentic feel.

 

Insert artificial crowd noise.

 

ESPN Insider Adam Schefter reported Wednesday afternoon that the NFL is “considering a league-wide policy that would enable fan sound to be heard in stadiums.”

 

Artificial crowd noise, amongst other digital techniques, have already been utilized by the MLB, NBA, and even the MLS.

 

The MLB incorporated crowd noise from the hit video game MLB The Show. The NBA pulled from hit video game NBA 2K. And the MLS through avenues not specifically reported just yet.

 

The funny, yet unfortunate reality of the NFL possibly joining this wave of piped-in crowd noise is that the Atlanta Falcons were disciplined for using this method, pre-COVID, back in 2016 — they were fined $350,000.

 

The NFL rules state that “at no point during the game can artificial crowd noise or amplified crowd noise be played in the stadium.”

 

Even future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers took a dig at the Falcons franchise back when they were busted for fake crowd noise.

 

“It’s really loud in there. Whether that’s all natural or not is yet to be seen,” Rodgers said via the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

 

While this decision hasn’t been made official, it seems as though the NFL is set to face the reality of live sports in 2020.

It would seem you wouldn’t want a steady drone, that the noise should get louder in response to the flow of the game.  So will a team or NFL employee be on the control switch?  Is it okay for the noise to go up, like it usually does, when the visiting team has a third down?

In a related note, in MLB, the home team traditionally has won about 54% of games.  Without crowd noise, but with teams still traveling, in a month-long sample size, it is about 50%.

In the NFL, the home-road gap has traditionally been about 60-40, although last year home teams had to rally to get to 51.5% (132-124).

– – –

This on the process the NFL is putting in place if The Commish has some tough Covid decisions to make.  There are “experts” but apparently not medical ones.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

It’s been rumored, and it’s now official.

 

NFL executive V.P. of football operations Troy Vincent confirmed during a Wednesday conference call with reporters that the Commissioner will use an outside advisory committee for consultation when it comes to making decisions regarding COVID-19 issues, such as whether to postpone games, reschedule games, suspend games, and/or cancel games. The Commissioner won’t rely on the Competition Committee, given the reality that the members of the Competition Committee will have obvious conflicts of interest.

 

Of course, the members of the outside advisory committee will have conflicts of interest, too; they just won’t be as obvious. If they are connected directly or indirectly in any way to the football business, there will be relationships (good and bad) that could make ideally objective decisions anything but.

 

Then there’s the overriding question of whether the process will have objective standards, or whether every situation will be handled individually. Vincent was asked whether factors and thresholds would be identified before the season begins; his answer strongly suggested that the decisions will be driven by the specific circumstances.

 

The advisory committee’s work won’t be confined to deciding whether to play a given game. Vincent said that the advice from the outside committee ultimately could include how to seed playoff teams if teams play fewer than 16 games. Which means that the NFL is indeed contemplating the possibility that some teams won’t be able to get a full season in, even if others are.

 

UPDATE 3:06 p.m. ET: Vincent said the committee will consist of former General Managers, former coaches, and former players. He declined to identify them for now, explaining that he wants to make sure they are aware that their names will be made public before doing so.

NFC EAST

 

WASHINGTON

The Big Ten produced the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, but right now EDGE CHASE YOUNG is idle.

Washington defensive end Chase Young did not participate in 11-on-11 drills Wednesday with a minor hip flexor injury.

 

Rivera said Young was being held out as a precaution. The 21-year-old, drafted second overall in April out of Ohio State, was seen with a clear bandage around his hip.

 

“You’ve got to be smart,” Rivera said. “You don’t want to overwork him or wear him down and (then) the next thing you know he’s going to miss four or five days, so we’re just trying to be smart about that.”

 

Young made a strong impression in Washington’s first-padded practice Tuesday, overwhelming linemen with speed and strength. On one rep, in particular, Young burst from his stance, collided with tackle Paul Adams and threw the lineman to the ground.

 

During team drills, he was mixed in with the starters on occasion and also played with the second team.

 

“We’ll see how he is (Thursday),” Rivera said. “He’s done a really good job. He really has. The more reps he gets, the quicker he’s going to adapt and get used to the things we’re trying to do as a football team.”

NFC WEST

 

SEATTLE

The Seahawks say no fans for the first three home games.  Frank Schwab ofYahooSports.com:

The Seattle Seahawks are on any short list of best home-field advantages in the NFL.

 

They won’t have that advantage this season, at least early on.

 

The Seahawks announced on Wednesday that they will not have fans in the stadium for at least the first three home games of this season. That’s a difficult decision for any team, and Seattle made it knowing it takes away a big competitive edge.

 

But amid the coronavirus pandemic, it’s not like they had much choice.

So Patriots in Week 2, Cowboys in Week 3 and Vikings in Week 5 are fan-free.  The first opportunity for the 12th man would be on November 1 when the rival 49ers come to town.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

CB BASHAUD BREELAND will be sidelined by NFL Justice for four games.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Chiefs cornerback Bashaud Breeland has confirmed that he will serve a suspension for the first four games of this NFL season.

 

The suspension, which was first reported as a possibility in April, is now official, according to a post from Breeland on Instagram.

 

“I have received a 4 game suspension for off-the-field matters,” Breeland wrote. “I post this today because I want to apologize, publicly, to the entire Chiefs organization, my coaches, teammates, family and fans. I accept full responsibility for my actions, and I look forward to getting back on the field with my teammates to defend our Super Bowl Title.”

 

Breeland was arrested in April for charges including marijuana possession and driving with an open container of alcohol, but this suspension reportedly stems from a violation of the league’s substance-abuse policy that took place before he was arrested.

 

The suspension allows Breeland to stay with the Chiefs through training camp, but will require him to be away from the team for the first four games of the season.

AFC SOUTH

 

TENNESSEE

We saw this – and we wondered why the media is no longer pushing for a contract for Colin Kaepernick?

Ian Rapoport

@RapSheet

The #Titans are signing former #Jets backup QB Trevor Siemian, per agent @MikeMcCartney7. Siemian recently worked out for the team, and now joins Ryan Tannehill and Logan Woodside in the QB room.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

BIG TEN

Commissioner Kevin Warren responded after a week of silence following what appears to be his decision to shut down the athletics in a college athletic conference.

First, there was a letter to the Big Ten “family” released on social media that appeared with his signature.  Although some say it provides new “details”, it actually was the original press release warmed over.

You can read it here.

He also did a brief interview with Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic:

The key points covered in both:

1 – There was an “overwhelming” vote, but the Big Ten is a secretive organization of public schools (all but one) and we will not provide a detail of who voted and how they vote.

He added that the Big Ten has never previously discussed its voting process — nor has the league listed which schools voted for or against various decisions — and that “it’s important just to recognize that a vote from our chancellors and presidents was in support of postponing the fall season. We don’t want to get in a position where it’s, “Who voted for what?’ ”

2 – There are six reasons cited for the decision, with the shroud of “uncertainty” from his experts clouding the whole process.  Uncertain transmission, uncertain effects of the illness, uncertain testing process.

3 – All of this is predicated on the questionable assumption that “transmission rates continue to rise at an alarming rate” with no mention that Covid-19 is of little actual danger to any of the student-athletes involved.

3 – Warren is not interested in lessening the uncertainty that clouds his experts’ minds by talking to other experts.  The status assessment of “uncertainty” on August 11 by his experts is the only assessment worth listening to.  The decision WILL NOT BE REVISITED.

4 – He modestly asserts that he knows he did not due a very good job of communicating his decision that was so devastating to so many – but resists any thought that he should not be entrusted with making and communicating future devastating decisions.

“So there is no confusion,” Warren said, “we need to focus on what we can do to move forward as a conference. This last week has been emotional for all parties involved. We need to move forward. We really do. There are things that we can do better. There are things that I can do better. And that I will do better.

 

“But we need to get back to being the strong Big Ten conference.”

 

Warren’s comments and the open letter come three days after a petition to reinstate the football season started by Ohio State star quarterback Justin Fields that amassed more than 280,000 signatures amid calls to reverse the decision from a number of player parent groups. While he did not commit to setting up a meeting with parents, Warren did say that he is going to get feedback from athletes and their families to answer the question: What can the Big Ten improve?

 

“Some of our student-athletes felt very strongly about playing, and some didn’t want to play or had concerns,” Warren said. “There’s a lot of honest emotion, worthwhile emotion, involved. I understand that. What we have to do is make sure we do better as we go forward and communicate better. …

 

“2020 has been a year that has been complicated and complex, but there are certain things that that we can do a better job of in the Big Ten and I can do a better job of personally is from a communication standpoint. This was a difficult process. These were difficult decisions being made. They impacted everyone.”

Warren is under attack from Big Ten parents for arbitrarily (in conjunction with anonymous unnamed “experts”) denying their kids the chance to play even as his own son is playing for Mississippi State.  Warren implies that Powers Warren has gone rogue.

“As a family, we’ve had many difficult discussions regarding this issue,” Warren said. “But the decisions we make in the Big Ten conference we have to look at from a macro level. We need to focus on what’s right for our nearly 10,000 student-athletes at 14 institutions.”

Pat Forde of SI.com who wrote a column demanding more answers, seems somewhat happy with the response, and finds a part of it indicating that the Big Ten will actually play its season before “spring”.

 

“Now I’m doing everything I can to focus on the future, so our student-athletes can have a rewarding Big Ten experience in the winter and spring.”

 

The wording there is significant. Multiple league sources told SI Wednesday that consensus is building toward a winter football season, starting in early January and ending in late February, utilizing indoor stadiums around the Big Ten footprint. SI’s Albert Breer had the first information on that plan last week.

 

Here is what Breer had:

Imagine this—the Big Ten launches a season Jan. 1, playing on Thursday and Friday nights during the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, and on Saturdays otherwise. And they do it in some combination of the five indoor football stadiums (Syracuse, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, St. Louis) within shouting distance of the league’s footprint. Meanwhile, on the more temperate West Coast, the Pac-12 launches with a similar plan.

 

In this scenario, an eight-game season, with a bye, could be wrapped up by the end of February, with some semblance of a postseason completed by mid-March.

 

Maybe the ACC, SEC and Big 12 join in, maybe they don’t. Either way, this shakes up the ’21 calendar for the NFL significantly. And if you want to know how the NFL would react to this, I’ve got news for you—these sorts of concepts aren’t just landing on their radar now.

 

I’m told these are ideas that have been discussed by college coaches already and, notably, NFL teams would be willing to help. The Lions, for one, were approached by a Big Ten school all the way back in the spring about using Ford Field in this way. NFL teams also have discussed what it would take to move the combine and the draft back a month (potentially having the combine in early April and draft in late May) to accommodate the college game.

 

Are there a lot of moving parts here? Sure. But there’s also reason for people involved to be motivated to get it done. For the Big Ten and Pac-12, this would be a shot—by playing a winter season rather than a spring season—to give their players the chance to play without totally firebombing their 2021 season, and maybe even create an option for other conferences to delay their seasons. For the NFL, it would mitigate what will certainly be a messy, messy situation for its ’21 draft class, in getting most top prospects on the field.

 

So if the Pac-12 goes along, we could have a virtual Rose Bowl with virtual flowers and virtual floats!  An on-line float designing contest!

Why did the other conferences reach a different decision than Warren of the Big Ten and his experts?  They listened, on the subject of heart complications, to a Mayo Clinic expert based in Big Ten country.  John Talty of AL.com:

Michael Ackerman isn’t a college football fan.

 

The Mayo Clinic genetic cardiologist has been to two college football games in his life.

 

But if we have college football this fall, Dr. Ackerman will be one of the reasons why. His perspective on myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart, helped the Big 12 hold off on canceling its season, which would have set off a string of dominos that could have doomed college football last week. Without the Big 12, the ACC would have likely dropped out, and it would have been increasingly difficult for the SEC to move forward alone. The fate of the 2020 season hinged on the biggest wild card of the Power 5 conferences.

 

The Big 12 brought in Ackerman for its Tuesday call last week amid a Sports Illustrated report the conference was split on what to do. The Big Ten and Pac-12 had already announced their plans to cancel the fall football season, citing myocarditis as a primary factor in those decisions. Before the Tuesday call, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told the Dallas Morning News, “You’d be less than forthright if you didn’t acknowledge between the myocarditis and some of the other things that are new, it hasn’t raised the concern level.”

 

In two weeks, it went from a secondary issue to the topic that created considerable concern among Big 12 university leaders after multiple recent national stories detailed the risks involved. With the season hanging in the balance, myocarditis was poised to be the issue that pushed the Big 12 into the same fate as the Big Ten and Pac-12.

 

Enter Ackerman.

 

The Minnesota-based cardiologist leads the Windland Smith Rice Sudden Death Genomics Lab which studies, among other things, sudden death in young athletes. He explained to the Big 12′s leaders that a new myocarditis study in the Journal of American Medical Association that sparked panic across college sports didn’t have the “bandwidth” to be transferable in a useful way. The study, conducted in Germany and composed of middle-aged adults, found that 78 percent of the 100 participants had some cardiac abnormality. Ackerman said it’d be a “scientific foul” to infer that those findings are relevant for 18 to 24-year old athletes.

 

“You cannot make that leap,” Ackerman exclaimed.

 

He said they shouldn’t use myocarditis as the reason to cancel college football now.

 

“There’s just too many unknowns to say we have new damaging, alarming evidence that COVID-19 myocarditis is the big, bad spooky thing in town now, and we need to do something about it,” Ackerman said. “Not new news at all; we’ve known that this virus can affect the heart muscle for five months now. It’s not new, it just got put forward in a new way, and it’s taken on a new life.”

 

Ackerman’s expertise proved very influential within the Big 12 ranks. Here was a qualified expert with no stakes in whether college football would be played this fall, giving the green light to not throw in the towel yet. Baylor AD Mack Rhoades told ESPN Ackerman, “provided us with a comfort level” that a player who tests positive for the coronavirus could safely return to competition after going through a cardiac screening. Big 12 leaders were intently listening with “their ears wide open” when Ackerman talked, according to a Big 12 administrator.

 

Not long after Ackerman briefed the group Tuesday night, the Big 12′s leaders decided to move forward with fall football plans. Bowlsby said Ackerman provided “very helpful information.”

 

“We are going to take the advice of our medical advisors and medical experts in this area, and certainly Dr. Ackerman has a strong knowledge base when it comes to the areas of myocarditis and cardio issues,” said Ed Stewart, the Big 12’s executive associate commissioner who oversees football and serves as liaison to its medical advisors.

 

The Mayo Clinic cardiologist didn’t sugarcoat that myocarditis can be a serious issue. The inflammation of the heart, caused by viral infections, can ultimately be deadly in rare cases. Former Boston Celtics star Reggie Lewis, who collapsed during basketball practice, died at the age of 27 from myocarditis. Brian Hainline, the NCAA’s chief medical officer, said last week he was aware of 12 athletes suffering from myocarditis after COVID-19. It remains an issue that bears close watching within college athletics going forward.

 

Ackerman pushed for the Big 12 to consider additional heart-related protocols to mitigate any possible risks, with the conference adopting plans to test athletes who had the coronavirus with an EKG, cardiac MRI, echocardiogram and troponin blood test. He stressed that any player who contracts COVID-19 needs to have a “squeaky clean cardiac evaluation” before getting the go-ahead to return to play. He cautioned them to consider possible mental health ramifications of canceling a season, referencing past experiences with athletes who suffered after being medically disqualified for heart issues.

– – –

There will be more hurdles for conferences like the Big 12 and CUSA to overcome in the coming weeks. Fears of what will happen when non-athlete college students return to campus have already been crystallized at the University of North Carolina which moved to online-only learning after only a week. COVID-19 testing concerns and the challenges around quarantine restrictions for athletes aren’t going away. A decision to move forward one week in August doesn’t guarantee that every college football game will be played this fall.

 

Still, no issue frightened college leaders quite like myocarditis over the last two weeks. Pac-12 ADs and coaches were in favor of playing a fall season until a call with the conference’s medical advisors discussing the coronavirus-related heart issues made it a “no-brainer,” to cancel the fall season, a Pac-12 coach told The Athletic. The Big 12′s call could have headed a similar direction without Ackerman’s perspective. If it had, any semblance of a 2020 fall season would have been dead.

 

Ackerman won’t be attending games in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium or Bryant-Denny Stadium anytime soon.

 

But if there are any games played inside those stadiums this fall, he’ll be one of the reasons why.

There will be lawyers, as parents groups (perhaps backed by coaches) try to pierce Warren’s web of secrecy on the process.  This on a longshot Mars rescue mission from Trevor Woods of Maizenbrew.com:

Michigan fans know his name well, Tom Mars. The attorney who helped quarterback Shea Patterson gain eligibility for the 2018 season after transferring from Ole Miss.

 

Mars is making headlines again, due to how the NCAA and Big Ten are handling certain issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

With Big Ten parents from Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State, and other programs writing letters to commissioner Kevin Warren, it’s clear the majority of parents want answers from the conference as to why they postponed the fall 2020 sports season.

 

Since the Big Ten announced the postponement of the season on August 11, parents feel they haven’t received enough information from Warren to accept his rationale. Enter Tom Mars.

 

“I’m not sure the Big Ten knows this but, one way or the other, the players and the parents are going to get their hands on at least most of the information that was available to the Big Ten when they voted on this decision. If they did vote. Maybe they didn’t,” Mars said on Sirius XM. “And people may wonder ‘How are they going to do that?’ It’s not only simple, it’s the next step in the process. And I’m actually on the verge of coordinating a massive request for emails, text messages, presentations and financial analysis from all member institutions of the B1G, and they’ll be required to produce those under the Freedom of Information statutes.”

 

While it’s anyone’s guess whether there will actually be a fall football season, Mars crafted a document entitled “Action Plan to Mitigate Concerns and Legal Risks of Playing Fall 2020 Football”, which in part calls for the NCAA lifting their early August ban of liability waivers. The plan calls for a school to still be potentially liable if there’s negligence and they fail to provide reasonable care, which is a definite safe-guard for players. Further, his plan would preserve the rights of student-athletes who choose not to execute a waiver.

 

“The issue here is all about freedom of choice,” Mars told Sportico. “If a student-athlete can enlist in the military without getting approval from the NCAA, with the risk of death or serious injury being so obvious, why shouldn’t a student-athlete be free to sign a liability waiver and accept the risks of virus-related health problems?”

 

Freedom of choice aside, virus-related health problems are increasing on college campuses. In the first week since classes began, the University of North Carolina had 130 positive cases and will no longer hold in-person classes on campus. The University of Notre Dame, a relatively small campus, went from 58 positive cases on Monday to 147 on Tuesday. And at the time of publishing, Michigan State announced they’ll be going online only this fall. In short, it’s likely we’ll continue to see covid cases rise across the country on college campuses, and in turn these institutions will opt for virtual learning. It’s fair to wonder whether the average college student is safer from coronavirus, or student-athletes who have access to adequate testing and medical professionals are safer.

 

“Who is safer on campus right now—student-athletes in a relatively controlled environment or the students in frats and sororities in these photos we’ve all seen, who think it’s not cool to wear a mask and social distance?,” Mars asked. He acknowledges that it won’t matter what any commissioner decided to do about college football if campuses shut down due to widespread outbreaks, but he’s still trying to craft a path forward for a fall season because it’s what the majority of players and parents want.

 

As we sit here on August 18, Mars is just getting started with his goal of getting the Big Ten and Kevin Warren to release pertinent information that will bring an end any speculation players and parents have about why the season was postponed. The longer this process drags on, though, Mars feels wouldn’t be in the best interest of Warren or the conference. “Why wouldn’t the commissioner proactively release that information and explain it and put it in context,” Mars said. “In my view, the longer Kevin Warren resists calls for transparency the more likely it is that he’s gonna have a very short tenure as commissioner.”

And finally some comments that the Big Ten Conference thoughtfully allowed to Warren’s letter on its twitter account.

@mattpoulsen

Made it so much worse with this. He basically said nothing other than “we made the right choice.” Can’t back up the decision with an objective data. Can’t expand on the vote. And on top of it does so in a cowardly letter. This guy can’t possibly keep his job.

 

@prepseer

The letter does not address the failure of the Committee to include players and family members, and even coaches and ADs  in their deliberations.  There was also no mention of potential Covid related lawsuits, which may have been the primary reason for canceling.

 

@jfsemmer

As soon as I read “transmission rates continue to rise at an alarming rate” I knew this was propoganda. Other than (maybe) Illinois (which is far from alarming), there isn’t a single state in the BIG that has an increase in cases per day.

 

@CbusTodd

Proud of the B1G for this decision. If you truly think the other conferences are going to end up playing, you are deluded. Are the ACC going to play now that both Notre Dame & NC have transitioned to distance learning? Football is not as important as human lives.

 

@Econn25

He needs to backtrack at this point and let the schools that want to play go ahead and play. Nobody would think any less of his leadership capabilities because nobody can think any less of his leadership capabilities.

 

@JonHarshbarger

Right decision! People commenting here just don’t understand the risks. It’s one thing for local students to play, it’s another for teams to travel, exposing them to greater risk.

 

@Unclerico9806

Even if they are online and at school that isn’t any better. But frankly there is no place better for them to be than on the field. Because I can tell you if they stayed home they aren’t going to be couped up at home all day. This whole ordeal is pure BS.

 

@LJMoss62

You left out the part about political pressures from the cancel culture.

 

@jrbigredfan

There will be Public Relations seminars devoted solely to this debacle.  Every organization and business will be trained to avoid doing everything @bigten has done the past two weeks. No credibility results in no trust

 

@HuskerDave77

@KevinFWarren  is taking all of the heat, but IF the presidents did ACTUALLY vote. Why haven’t they taken any heat or answered any questions on what was discussed in the meeting? Are they using Kevin as a scapegoat? I know what side @RonnieDGreen was on, but what about the others?

 

What does Paul Finebaum say?

On Thursday morning’s edition of ESPN’s Get Up, Paul Finebaum had a few things to say about the conference’s commissioner, who spoke publicly yesterday for the first time last Tuesday’s postponement.

 

“It’s too late,” Finebaum said about the conference possibly reversing course. “You can’t put the genie back in the bottle. While I respect Kevin Warren and know him moderately well, he’s proving to be a rookie in the biggest moment of his career. It’s the biggest moment in college football’s existence and he continues to fail. I wish I could do it over again? That’s like running a stop sign during your driver’s test. Come on. He flat out blew it. Now I’m not saying he blew the decision. We don’t know yet whether that’s the right decision or not. But he has stumbled around. He still can’t get it right. He issued a statement. Now he’s not sure whether he can meet with parents, how tone deaf can you be?”

 

 

BROADCAST NEWS

Whether or not there are fans in the stands, no matter how much empty space might exist in a corner – no TV reporter (or cheerleader or mascot) will set foot on an NFL field in 2020.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The NFL sideline will indeed look very different in 2020.

 

The game-day protocol for pro football in a pandemic does indeed prohibits cheerleaders and mascots. It also prohibits all sideline reporters, including TV network, national radio, and team flagship radio. Pregame TV reporters also are prohibited from the sidelines.

 

It’s not a surprise, but it’s further confirmation of how different things will be this season for the NFL.

 

Ultimately, the fans won’t care all that much, as long as the games are played. These measures are aimed at ensuring this happens by reducing the potential opportunities for someone bringing the virus to the field of play.

 

WORST TO FIRST

Of the eight teams that finished last in 2019, which is most likely to go Worst To First?  John Breech of CBSSports.com says it happens about once per year (even when the AFC East was strangled by Brady and Belichick).  Here is his look at 2020:

One thing that makes the NFL so entertaining every year is the fact that it’s one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet, and nothing proves that more than the league’s uncanny ability to produce at least one team every season that goes from worst-to-first.

 

Over the past five years, there have been a total of six teams that have followed up a last place finish in one season with a division-winning run the following season, and for those of you who aren’t good at math, that’s an average of more than one team per year. That average has actually held pretty firm over the years: Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, there have been 25 teams that have gone from worst to first, which is an average of 1.4 teams per year over that 18-season span.

 

Basically, NFL history says that at least one team is going to go from last place in 2019 to first place in 2020, and because we love ranking things here, we’re going to rank the eight last place finishers from last year to determine which team has the best chances of walking away with a division title in 2020.

 

8. Los Angeles Chargers

2019 record: 5-11

Odds to win AFC West: +1000

 

If these rankings were based on how talented your roster is, the Chargers definitely wouldn’t be in the last spot, but these rankings aren’t based on that at all, they’re based on whether or not a team has any chance of winning its division in 2020 and it doesn’t feel like the Chargers really have a shot. The problem for the Chargers is that they’re in the same division as the Chiefs and it’s hard to picture any scenario where Los Angeles is able to overtake Kansas City to win the division, especially when you consider that the Chargers are just 1-11 against the Chiefs since 2014. Also, to win the AFC West, the Chargers will ostensibly need to win a few divisional games, which isn’t something they were able to do last year (They went 0-6 against AFC West teams in 2019).

 

Fun fact: The Chargers have only gone worst-to-first once in franchise history and that came all the way back in 1992. After going 4-12 in 1991, the Chargers followed that up with a 11-5 first-place finish in 1992.

 

7. Carolina Panthers

2019 record: 5-11

Odds to win NFC South: +1800

 

If you’re looking for a long shot last place team to make a division winning bet on this offseason, here’s some advice: Don’t pick the Panthers. Although Matt Rhule might end up being a fantastic coach, the odds will definitely be stacked against him during his first year in Carolina. For one, due to the pandemic, he’s only going to have roughly four weeks of practice before the season starts, which seems like a recipe for disaster when you consider that the Panthers are the only team in the NFL that will be trying to break in a new head coach, two new coordinators and a new starting quarterback this year. The Panthers are also in a division with two Super Bowl contenders (Saints, Buccaneers) and a Falcons team that has beaten Carolina five straight times.

 

Fun fact: Since 2002, only three of the 25 worst-to-first teams made it to the Super Bowl and Carolina was one of those teams. The Panthers followed up a last place season in 2002 with a Super Bowl appearance in 2003.

 

6. Cincinnati Bengals

2019 record: 2-14

Odds to win AFC North: +3000

 

The Bengals finished with the worst record in the NFL last year, so it might seem a little crazy to be talking about them as a potential division winner, but it’s something that could absolutely happen if Joe Burrow has a big season. Although rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle during their first year on the job, there have been a few cases where the QB comes in and totally revitalizes the franchise. For instance, after the Colts went 2-14 in 2011, Andrew Luck came in as a rookie and led them to an 11-5 record in 2012. The Bengals definitely have some huge question marks going into the season (their offensive line, their entire defense), but this is also a team that held a lead in 12 of the 16 games they played last year, which means they might be better than they were given credit for.

 

Fun fact: The idea of betting on the Bengals to get to the Super Bowl might seem crazy, but they’ve done it before following a last place season. Actually, they’ve done it twice: Both Super Bowl appearances in franchise history (1981, 1988) came after a season where the Bengals finished in last place (1980, 1987)

 

5. Washington Football Team

2019 record: 3-13

Odds to win NFC East: +1500

 

Ron Rivera is definitely going to have his work cut out for him during his first season in Washington. Not only did the team trade its best defensive back (Quinton Dunbar) and best offensive tackle (Trent Williams) this offseason, but it’s not even clear who the starting quarterback is going to be, which isn’t an ideal situation to be in with less than four weeks to go until the start of the season. Washington does have one of the scariest defensive lines in the league with Chase Young, Ryan Kerrigan and Montez Sweat, but that’s about the only thing that’s scary about this team right now. As things currently stand, the NFC East seems like it’s a two-horse race between the Cowboys and Eagles.

 

Fun fact: Washington is one of just two teams in the NFL that went worst-to-first a total of two times over the past decade (2010 thru 2019). Washington did it in 2012 and 2015 while Houston did it in 2011 and 2018.

 

4. Arizona Cardinals

2019 record: 5-10-1

Odds to win NFC West: +700

 

With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals now have one of the most loaded offenses in the NFL, which might have you wondering why they’re ranked so low on this list. The answer there is that a loaded offense might not help them much in 2020 and that’s because they play in the NFL’s toughest division. In 2019, the NFC West was the only division in the NFL that produced three teams that finished above .500. The Cardinals seem like a team destined to top their win total from last year, but they’re probably going to need 11 or 12 wins to take home the division crown, and that seems like it might be asking too much. Although the Cardinals are only ranked fourth on this list, they have the best Vegas odds to win the division out of all the 2019 last place teams.

 

Fun fact: Arizona is the only team on this year’s list that has never gone from worst-to-first.

 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

2019 record: 6-10

Odds to win AFC South: +1200

 

The Jaguars actually finished the 2019 season with the best record of any last place team, and although that doesn’t make you a contender, they probably feel pretty good about themselves after finish just four games out of first place last year (Every other last place team finished at least six games out of first place).

 

Sure, the Jaguars traded away two of their best defensive players this offseason (Calais Campbell and cornerback A.J. Bouye), one defensive starter wants nothing to do with the team (Yannick Ngakoue) and their quarterback is going into his first full year as a starter, but the good news for the Jags is that every other team in the AFC South is also dealing with some drama.

 

In Indianapolis, the Colts are handing their offense over to Philip Rivers. The reason that’s risky is because Rivers looked like a 38-year-old washed up quarterback at times last season and there’s no guarantee he won’t look like a 38-year-old washed up quarterback at times in 2020. In Houston, Bill O’Brien gutted his own offense by trading away DeAndre Hopkins, and in Tennessee, Mike Vrabel has yet to prove that he can lead the Titans to a record that’s not 9-7. The AFC South is a winnable division for the Jags, which is why they’re ranked so high.

 

Fun fact: Of all the teams on this list, the Jaguars are the ones that have most recently gone worst-to-first. The Jags won the AFC South in 2017, just one year after finishing in last place with a 3-13 record.

 

2. Detroit Lions

2019 record: 3-12-1

Odds to win NFC North: +850

 

For the first eight weeks of the 2019 season, the Lions looked like a potential dark horse team to make the playoffs, but then Matthew Stafford got hurt and the wheels fell off the wagon. Before Stafford’s injury, he was playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Not only was he averaging 312.4 passing yards per game, but he had a 106.0 QB rating and a 19-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, and he did all that even though he was still learning the system of Lions first-year offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. If Stafford can stay healthy, the Lions should be able to compete for the division title in a wide open NFC North.

 

Fun fact: The Lions only have one worst-to-first turnaround in franchise history, and fans in Detroit might actually remember when it happened. After finishing in last place in 1992, the Lions won the NFC Central with a 10-6 record in 1993, which is notable, because that also happens to be the last time Detroit won a division title.

 

1. Miami Dolphins

2019 record: 5-11

Odds to win AFC East: +750

 

Last year, Dolphins coach Brian Flores squeezed five wins out of a team that was supposed to be tanking, and it won’t be surprising at all if Miami manages to double that win total in 2020. Before being hired by the Dolphins, Flores was the de facto defensive coordinator in New England, so it wasn’t surprising that one of the first things he did this offseason was beef up his defense. Over the past few months, the Dolphins have added multiple defensive starters with guys like Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson. The reason that’s notable is because having a solid defense might be enough to win the AFC East this year, especially when you consider that the quarterbacks in the division are a guy who’s seeing ghosts (Sam Darnold), a guy who has a worse career completion percentage than Blake Bortles (Josh Allen) and whomever New England trots out at quarterback.

 

If Ryan Fitzpatrick can keep the offense afloat, the Dolphins might be able to shock their way to the AFC East title in 2020.

 

Fun fact: Over the past 17 years, only one team not named New England has won an AFC East title, and that was the Dolphins in 2008. Of course, we’re noting that here, because it involved a worst-to-first situation. After going 1-15 in 2007, the Dolphins ran wild over everyone in 2008 by implementing a Wildcat offense that they ended up riding to a 11-5 record and a division title.