PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles have taken WR JAHAN DOTSON, a disappointing first rounder from the Daniel Snyder Era, off the hands of the Commanders.  Grades from Jared Dubin ofCBSSports.com:

The Washington Commanders are moving on from one of their recent first-round picks. Washington will send wide receiver Jahan Dotson and a fifth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks. The Eagles confirmed the deal on Thursday morning.

The move comes a week after head coach Dan Quinn said publicly that several players — including Dotson — were battling for the No. 2 receiver job behind Terry McLaurin. That Dotson had not stood out, despite his draft pedigree, could have been construed as a sign that something like this was coming.

In two seasons with Washington, Dotson has posted receiving lines of 35 catches for 523 yards and seven touchdowns, and 49 catches for 517 yards and four touchdowns. His yards per reception and yards per game averages plummeted in Year 2, as did his target rate and yards per route run numbers, via Tru Media.

With Dotson out the door, Washington will presumably be relying on third-round pick Luke McCaffrey, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Dyami Brown for wide receiver snaps behind McLaurin. No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels also has tight ends Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott among his pass-catching group, along with Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, gets to take a shot at tapping back into what made Dotson a first-round pick, and does so at a relatively low cost. The Eagles have been searching for a No. 3 receiver to complement A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith; they signed DeVante Parker earlier this offseason, only to see him retire before ever suiting up for them. Philadelphia has gotten minimal passing-game production from its wide receivers outside of Brown and Smith over the last few years, and acquiring Dotson could help fill that void.

Now let’s grade the trade…

Commanders: D-

There’s no way to frame this as anything other than a loss for Washington. Dotson was a first-round pick just two years ago and he played two underwhelming seasons for the team, but he also didn’t get an opportunity to play with a good quarterback during that time. To essentially get only a pick swap and a couple of seventh-rounders for him is a pretty big disappointment.

Eagles: B

That said, it’s not like the Eagles are really getting a sure thing to be their No. 3 wide receiver. Again, Dotson has not been all that productive in the NFL, even if he was good enough in college to be a mid-first-rounder. The cost to acquire him is so low, though, that the deal is a solid one even allowing for the possibility that he can’t fill a real role in the offense.

WASHINGTON

The Commanders trade for Cleveland’s number two kicker, CADE YORK.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Commanders head coach Dan Quinn made clear this week that kicker Riley Patterson’s job was in jeopardy after he missed two field goals in last week’s preseason game, and now the Commanders have acted.

The Browns are trading kicker Cade York to the Commanders for a conditional seventh-round draft pick, according to Albert Breer of SI.com.

The Browns have decided that Dustin Hopkins has won the kicking competition with York, and they’re getting something for him now rather than putting him on waivers next week during final roster cuts and getting nothing in return. Typically conditional trades like this mean the Browns get the pick if York becomes the Commanders’ kicker for the regular season.

York originally went to the Browns as a fourth-round draft pick in 2022 but was cut in favor of Hopkins before the start of the 2023 season. York then briefly spent time with the Titans and Giants in 2023 before signing for a second stint with the Browns this offseason. Now he’ll be given a good chance to beat out Patterson for the Commanders kicking job.

The Commanders thought they had solved their kicking problem when they signed Brandon McManus this offseason, handing him a $1.5 million signing bonus to play in Washington. But when McManus was accused of sexual assault in a civil lawsuit, the Commanders cut him. That left them scrambling to find a replacement, and Patterson hasn’t proven to be up to the task. They’ll hope York can do the job.

Hopkins, who forced York out of Cleveland for a second time, was Washington’s kicker for 6+ years.  He is the Browns incumbent with 92% made FGs last year for Cleveland.

Patterson, a career 88% FG maker (59-67), kicked two games for Cleveland last year, making his only FG try.

York, missed 8 FGs for the Browns in 2022 (24-32), five of under 50 yards.

ATLANTA

The Falcons have locked up CB A.J. TERRELL with the richest “four-year deal” ever bequeathed on a cornerback.  Doric Sam of Bleacher Report:

Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell reportedly was rewarded with a new deal that will reset the market at his position.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Falcons will sign Terrell to a four-year, $81 million contract extension that includes $65.8 million in guarantees, the largest guarantee a cornerback has ever received on a four-year deal.

The 16th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Terrell was entering the final year of his rookie deal and was set to make $12.3 million in 2024 on his fifth-year option. Thursday’s deal keeps him in Atlanta through the 2028 season and will have ramifications across the league for other top cornerbacks.

While waiting for his new deal, Terrell chose not to hold out of training camp. He told team reporter Amna Subhan last month that he wasn’t going to let his ongoing contract negotiations affect his preparations on the field with the Falcons.

“That’s the beauty of it, like right now I’m so focused on just being with the team and being involved and just let my agent work his moves and do what he do,” Terrell said at the time. “That’s easy for me to just come out to work and not think about it and know that it’s in good hands.”

Terrell started all 17 games last season and totaled 45 tackles, 11 pass breakups and four tackles for loss. He earned second-team All-Pro honors in 2021 when he recorded career highs of 81 total tackles, 16 pass breakups and three interceptions. He’s developed into a reliable shutdown corner who can shadow the opposing team’s No. 1 receiver.

Thursday’s deal for Terrell continues a strong run of moves for the Falcons on the defensive side of the ball in recent days. Last week, Atlanta acquired four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Matthew Judon from the New England Patriots and signed two-time Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons to a one-year deal.

ARIZONA

Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com on the jockeying for the number two position behind QB KYLER MURRAY.  The tea leaves show that QB CLAYTON TUNE may have the edge on QB DESMOND RIDDER as a pair of old C-USA rivals do battle.

The Cardinals list Desmond Ridder on their depth chart as the team’s No. 2 quarterback behind Kyler Murray, but he won’t be starting the team’s preseason finale against the Broncos.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that Clayton Tune will be the first man up as the Cardinals wrap up their exhibition slate. Ridder is expected to come into the game at some point.

That’s the same arrangement that the Cardinals used in their second preseason game. Ridder started the opener and went 4-of-9 for 43 yards and Tune was 8-of-10 for 79 yards in his start.

It is Tune’s second year in the Cardinals offense while Ridder joined the team in an offseason trade with the Falcons. That may be helping Tune’s bid for the backup job, but the Cardinals could wind up keeping both quarterbacks on their 53-man roster.

DENVER

Sean Payton has named rookie QB BO NIX as the starting QB for the Broncos. Nick Kosmider and Diana Russini in The Athletic:

Sean Payton may as well have been telling Bo Nix his shoe was untied. When the coach of the Denver Broncos pulled the rookie aside before Wednesday’s practice and told him he would be the team’s starting quarterback in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks, the conversation was brief.

“He walked up and said he was going to tell you guys (in the media) this afternoon,” Nix said, “And, ‘Let’s have a good practice.’”

Nix’s reaction was equally understated.

“He smiled and he got ready to practice. It was good,” Payton said. “We didn’t have any cake and candles or anything.”

There was no drama in the announcement because there was no lingering doubt about a quarterback competition Nix had turned into a coronation over the past two-plus weeks.

The move was widely expected after Nix’s impressive preseason start against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday when he completed 8 of 9 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. That performance capped an impressive offseason for the No. 12 pick, who surged ahead in a competition against veteran Jarrett Stidham and trade acquisition Zach Wilson.

Payton resisted calls to name Nix the starter after a promising preseason debut in Indianapolis on Aug. 11 — Nix completed 15 of 21 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown — but it became clear then the announcement would be merely a formality.

“We’ve gone through our process,” Payton said. “In the very beginning of it all, just speaking with (general manager) George (Paton) and (owner) Greg (Penner), understanding that, a lot of times, these things often take care of themselves, but we’re not in a hurry to arrive at those types of decisions.

“We want to see it. I think it’s important, relative to the team, that we handle it that way.”

Nix has made clear progress since the start of training camp, creating a swelling of optimism among fans and teammates alike about his readiness to guide the Broncos.

“To see him come in and handle what he’s handled so far, it’s been really fun to see him do his thing,” Denver wide receiver Courtland Sutton said of Nix. “I’m excited for him. He’s handling these early couple games of preseason success really well, but he’s not letting it go to his head. He’s taking it in stride.

“‘What else can I get better at?’ ‘What else can we get better at?’ ‘We like this route, we like this, but let’s try and do it like this next time and we might be able to get more yards and take it to another level.’ To have a young guy like that, to be that hungry and not complacent is really encouraging.”

Nix will become the Broncos’ first rookie quarterback to start a Week 1 game since John Elway in 1983 and the first rookie to start any game for Denver since 2019. He will also become the first rookie quarterback to start an opener for Payton during his 17 seasons as a coach.

“It’s great to share with such a great player like John Elway,” Nix said of becoming a season-opening rookie starter for the Broncos. “But I definitely want to go out there and ultimately do whatever I can for the team. It doesn’t matter when your first start is. It doesn’t matter if you have to wait or if you go right now. You just want to get out there and get that first win and ultimately compete at a high level and give your team the best chance you can.”

Nix earned the starting job by demonstrating a poise born of extensive experience.

He started an FBS-record 61 games across five seasons as a college starting quarterback at Auburn and Oregon. Nix became a starting varsity quarterback at Scottsboro High School in Alabama as an eighth grader and later won two state championships at Pinson Valley High School. The common refrain from those who have coached Nix and played alongside the 24-year-old is that it hasn’t felt like they were watching a rookie compete. The rookie has dropped back 34 times in the preseason without being sacked. He hasn’t turned the ball over in a game and has only thrown one interception in training camp during 11-on-11 sessions.

“He has a very unique combination of humility and confidence that goes a long way for his position and certainly as a rookie stepping in here with a lot of pressure on himself,” veteran right tackle Mike McGlinchey said. “He’s taken that in stride and there’s no fear of competition and there’s no fear of getting out there and going for it. That certainly has shown in the way that he’s progressed all of camp.”

Russini reports Payton focused early on drafting Nix:

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton visited Eugene, Ore., in March to watch quarterback Bo Nix’s pro day on a Friday, and for a private workout the next morning. The pro day was impressive — Payton said the team charted 82 of Nix’s throws and 81 were “exactly on the right shoulder.”

In other words, Payton told The Athletic’s “Scoop City” podcast this week, “super accurate.”

Still, there was the private workout and meeting the next morning. Payton and Broncos officials would engage Nix up-close to find out if he was the quarterback the franchise wanted to bet the future on. The Broncos were coming off a disappointing first season under Payton, finishing 8-9 and releasing veteran quarterback Russell Wilson just two years after an expensive trade to land him.

The night before the meeting with Nix, Payton sent Nix three days’ worth of offensive installations, with play formations, progressions, linebacker reads and hot throws against pressure. Payton sent Nix the document at 5 p.m. The next morning Payton and the rest of the Broncos’ party asked Nix to diagram those reads and concepts on a board.

“You’re looking for recall,” Payton said, “he’s doing great.”

Late in the two-hour meeting, Payton asked Nix what was in his backpack. “I’m just waiting for a candy bar, some chewing tobacco, just one vice,” Payton said. Instead, Nix pulled out two different types of cleats (one for turf and one for grass), a lacrosse ball he used to roll under his back, everything in there with a clear football purpose.

“All right,” Payton told Nix, “let’s go throw.”

Payton liked that a bunch of Oregon teammates showed up to support Nix during the workout. He’d also received good feedback from Alex Forsyth, the Broncos center who played with Nix at Oregon in 2022: “Man, this guy is super with protections.”

Payton also knew about Nix’s NCAA single-season completion percentage record set during his final year at Oregon. It’s something Nix was both credited and dinged for during the pre-draft buildup; in Oregon’s offense, Nix threw a lot of quick, short passes.

Payton was a believer, partly because even after Denver’s analytics department removed those short throws when analyzing all the quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft class, Nix still ranked among the most accurate.

Now Payton needed to see Nix go to work. It took just 16 throws for him to make up his mind. At that point in the workout Payton turned to Broncos general manager George Paton and said: “This is the guy.”

After the workout, Payton and Paton rewatched all of Nix’s film: His final two years at Oregon, his first three years at Auburn, and then his time at Oregon again. There was one play in particular that jumped out to Payton.

The most important traits for Payton are a quarterback’s capacity to process the defense and his ability to throw from a “dirty pocket,” with lots of bodies around him. While watching film of Nix at Oregon, Payton stumbled across a third-down play against Cal on which Nix eluded defenders rushing up the field, somehow ducked under the guard and the defender, stepped into a throw in traffic and completed a bullet to his tight end.

Payton replayed the moment and said: “I’ve never seen this before.”

The film study further convinced Payton that Nix was the quarterback he wanted, but it had also revealed a cautionary truth Payton shared with Paton, his GM.

“George, I’m just going to say this: We’re not the only ones seeing it this way,” Payton said. “I’m not worried about where (we draft Nix); let’s not get cute in this process.”

The Broncos had the 12th pick. There were no surprises when Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye went with the first three picks on draft night. The Broncos had been concerned with three other quarterback-needy teams picking in the top half of Round 1: the New York Giants (6th pick), Minnesota Vikings (11th pick) and Oakland Raiders (13th pick).

The Giants passed on a quarterback and took receiver Malik Nabers, after which Payton said he felt pretty comfortable with the Broncos’ situation. But then the Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th pick.

“No one saw that (coming),” Payton said.

With Penix off the board, Payton now believed there were three teams in need of a quarterback (the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders) and only two first-round quarterbacks left on the board (J.J. McCarthy and Nix). He started to get nervous.

The Vikings traded with the New York Jets to move up one spot — from No. 11 to No. 10 — to select McCarthy.

With the Jets on the clock at No. 11 and the Broncos anxious at No. 12, Payton turned to Paton: “Call the Jets. Just call them. We don’t want to move up unnecessarily, but I don’t want anything happening like Kansas City.”

Kansas City. During the 2017 draft, while still with New Orleans, Payton and the Saints were so intent on drafting Patrick Mahomes with the 11th pick that he called Drew Brees that night to warn him the Saints would take Mahomes if he was available. Instead, the Chiefs traded up in front of New Orleans and took Mahomes with the 10th pick.

Payton didn’t want that to happen again, so Paton called the Jets to feel them out. “I think the Jets said to George, ‘You called us, what do you want?’” Payton said with a laugh. “And he said, ‘Just checking in.’”

That left the Raiders, sitting one pick behind the Broncos. Payton feared Las Vegas could swoop in and nab Nix much like the Chiefs did with Mahomes.

Payton turned to Paton again: “Call the Raiders and tell them we might want to move back.” Another feeler. The Raiders didn’t want to move up. Now the Broncos just had to wait. The Jets took offensive lineman Olu Fashanu, and Payton, Paton and the Broncos had their guy. Nix was the sixth quarterback drafted in the first 12 picks. Another quarterback wasn’t selected until the fifth round.

On Wednesday, Payton officially named Nix Denver’s starting quarterback, the first rookie to start an opener since John Elway in 1983. Payton has admitted that Nix has a “ton of room for growth” and a “lot of things that he needs to work on,” but he hasn’t wavered on Nix since those first 16 throws in March.

KANSAS CITY

In what might be misplaced priorities, and we would say it with either political party, the NBC affiliate in Kansas City is going with coverage of the Democrat convention tonight and relegating the Chiefs to a less available option.  Those who wish to watch the convention activities have plenty of other ways to see it.   Those who wish to watch the Chiefs will have to get creative as Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com explains:

In Kansas City, it’s not just time to reconnect the cord. It’s time to reattach the rabbit ears.

For those who live in the home market of the two-time defending NFL champions, there’s only one way to watch Thursday night’s preseason finale against the Bears: Via the free, public airwaves.

As explained by the Kansas City Star, the Bears-Chiefs game will be subject to local blackout on NFL Network. The problem is that the local NBC affiliate that would otherwise be televising the game, KSHB, will be carrying the final night of the Democratic National Convention. The game will be relegated to KMCI.

YouTube TV doesn’t carry KMCI. The only way folks in Kansas City can watch the game is to rely on metal antennas to pull the signal out of the sky.

The same thing happened for the preseason opener, against the Jaguars. NBC had the Olympics, KMCI had the game, and the only way to see it was to rely on the old-school practice of positioning the rabbit ears in the right spot to capture the picture and sounds.

INDIANAPOLIS

Are the Colts that we are sleeping on?  Ted Ngyuen of The Athletic makes the case for the Indy offense (although we edited out some of his x-and-o film work):

The pieces of a potential offensive powerhouse are being assembled in Indianapolis.

Colts receiver Michael Pittman broke out last season with 109 receptions and signed an extension this offseason. Second-year receiver Josh Downs proved to be a big-play threat from the slot, and this year’s second-round pick, receiver Adonai Mitchell, has looked fantastic in camp — they’ll be cost-controlled for the next couple of seasons. All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor is signed till 2026, and he finally looks healthy.

The Colts have the talent and play caller in coach Shane Steichen to challenge to be one of the top offenses in the league as soon as next year. Still, their ceiling will depend on how quickly their 22-year-old quarterback Anthony Richardson develops as a pocket passer.

We know they have a relatively high floor because of Richardson’s running ability and Steichen’s ability to scheme up the QB run game as well as anyone in football. Richardson played in four games last season but only finished two. In those limited snaps, he displayed pocket presence, the willingness to throw the ball deep and explosive running ability. There were some inconsistencies in his game, but those are things you hope he can iron out with experience.

The next game Richardson starts will only be his 18th start since high school. He seemed to hit his stride last year in the second half of the Los Angeles Rams game in which he almost brought the Colts back from a 23-0 deficit. He was in the midst of his most efficient game against the Tennessee Titans before suffering his season-ending shoulder injury.

Richardson must be better at protecting himself because the quarterback run game will be a big part of this offense. Steichen was the architect of the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles offense built around Jalen Hurts’ ability as a runner and throwing deep. With Steichen, in 2022, the Eagles finished third in offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that adjusts for competition. After Steichen left, the Eagles offense with mostly the same cast dropped to 10th, struggled down the stretch and crescendoed in an embarrassing wild-card exit in which they only mustered 9 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I wrote in December about how the Eagles offense grew stale as it tried to recycle Steichen’s methods. After the season, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni used the same word to describe his offense. Without Steichen, the offense stopped evolving. His offense in Indianapolis has been imaginative and uses unique formations, motions and shifts. Steichen and his staff took the best option plays from all levels of football and mixed them with NFL window dressing.

“These days we can kind of get access to tape, any sort of tape we want, pretty quickly,” Colts offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter told The Athletic. “So if some college team runs a pretty cool play, it gets our attention somehow. And even high school teams that have certain things they do that are really unique or really interesting, that’s gotten our attention over the last couple years. So we’re sort of trying to keep our minds and our eyes open for good ideas.”

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Colts unveiled an old-school formation from an offense that only high schools and military schools use: the flex bone. The formation is typically used to set up the veer option, but the Colts used it to set up their modern triple option.

Tight end Mo Alie-Cox and Downs lined up off the ball and pointed their hips inside. Flex bone teams called the players aligned this way their A and B backs.

Downs went in motion like he was going to the other side to get the defense to rotate before reversing directions right before the snap. He would be Richardson’s pitch option if he kept the ball.

The play was a counter trey option with both the left guard and tackle pulling to the right. Richardson read the left end to give the ball to the back or keep the ball.

Why bring back this funky formation? Sometimes, it’s simply to give defenses something they don’t typically see.

“Sometimes, you know, we got 11 guys to line up, everybody kind of lines up the same,” Cooter explained. “And it’s fun just to sort of turn the guys a little bit and kind of get the old formations going.”

– – –

Running backs who play in option offense enjoy a mathematical advantage. Theoretically, if the ball gets handed to them, every defender should be accounted for.

Another benefit that comes with a running quarterback is one-on-one targets on the outside. Whether teams play single-high defense or quarters with both safeties playing the run aggressively, receivers enjoy premium looks on the outside. Eagles receiver A.J. Brown had a career year in 2022 because defenses used their resources trying to stop Hurts and the run game.

Who will be the deep outside threat for the Colts? Though Pittman has a prototypical X receiver size, he hardly gets targeted deep. In the last two seasons, he’s only had 20 targets on passes of 20 yards or more. The Colts hoped Alec Pierce could develop into a deep threat, but he’s been too inconsistent. Downs has the speed to get behind defenses, but it’s hard to win deep consistently from the slot (and he will be battling back from an ankle injury suffered in camp). That’s where Mitchell comes in. He will have a grand opportunity to be very productive as a deep threat as a rookie. It’ll be up to him to quickly learn the system and earn the trust of his coaches.

In his small sample of playing time last season, 23.8 percent of Richardson’s passes had 15 or more air yards — that would have been the third-highest percentage in the league. Though you don’t want to coach that aggressiveness out of him, there are times when coaches want him to be able to quickly find his checkdown when defenses are dropping back, knowing he wants to throw deep. Richardson has improved in this area during the offseason.

“There’s been multiple of those moments (in training camp) where he’ll get his eyes around, see the defense after the play fake, nothing’s there, check it down to the back immediately. And those plays, I think, are huge,” Colts quarterback coach Cam Turner told The Athletic. “Not the ones where he’s throwing it 60 yards for the post, those are cool, but it’s the ones where nothing’s there, and he makes a good decision, and you still get eight, 10 yards with the checkdown — those are impressive to me.”

With modern coverages, coaches and quarterbacks around the league have talked about how it’s harder than ever to read defenses pre-snap and know exactly what they are doing when watching film. Cooter and Turner highlighted Richardson’s ability to feel or quickly recognize how the defense distributes and finds the open receiver. Richardson will have to improve on his accuracy in throwing underneath.

Along with Richardson’s availability and optimism about his continued development as a passer, I trust this coaching staff’s ability to continue to push this offense forward. They’ve shown a refusal to remain static and a propensity to integrate new ideas into the offense. The Colts will have one of the most interesting offenses to watch in the coming years because of their young talent and innovative scheme.

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets teased us on QB AARON RODGERS and the preseason.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Jets head coach Robert Saleh left the door open to playing quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the team’s final preseason game throughout training camp, but he slammed it shut on Thursday.

Saleh told reporters at a press conference that Rodgers will not take the field against the Giants this weekend. Rodgers did not play in either of the first two games this month either.

The decision means that Rodgers’s first game action since tearing his Achilles in the season opener last year will come against the 49ers on the first Monday night of the regular season. Rodgers did get some work in joint practices and that will have to suffice to get him ready for his long-awaited return to the lineup.

Saleh said most of the team’s other starters will also stay on the bench as the team turns its attention toward the regular season.

THIS AND THAT

RANKING THE COACHING STAFFS

Ben Solak of ESPN.com ranks the “coaching staffs” of the NFL teams – 32 (Las Vegas) to 1 (no surprise, Kansas City).  Solak has lots of caveats.  We couldn’t fit the whole thing, so edited version below as we try to sum up each team with one or two of his sentences:

I thought this was a good idea. It was not.

Ranking all 32 NFL coaching staffs is an impossible exercise. At least when we rank players, we have exact metrics by which to grade them. With coaches, we have win-loss record, and that’s not even a good barometer for coaching talent.

At its core, coaching is an exercise in maximization. The best coaches get great play out of their great players and their good ones, while hiding and minimizing the impact of those who might struggle. It’s about optimization on any given Sunday, while keeping a long view on development. While the best coaching jobs in recent years have been done at teams that have (spoiler alert) won a lot of games, similarly impressive work has been done by those making the most out of the bad hands they were dealt.

I tried to not just rank teams on win-loss record or on reputation but consider with which staff I would start my franchise, if given the opportunity to draft any group in the league.

Before we begin, some considerations:

Past performance is a helpful guide, but only to a degree — and in big samples: We can use defensive coaches to explain this phenomenon. Mike Zimmer and Dan Quinn have coached great defenses over several years — Quinn a little more recently, but Zimmer certainly had his day. I’m confident both are good defensive coaches because we have a large body of evidence.

But we also know Quinn’s defense has struggled with key NFC offenses (see 49ers, San Francisco) in recent history. He is one of the league’s longest-tenured and most successful active defensive coaches, but I’m not going to ignore the current state of the NFL and his place in it. Zimmer hasn’t coached an NFL defense since 2021, but his scheme matches the current wave in the NFL — custom blitz packages, simulated pressures, two-deep zone coverages — a bit better than Quinn’s. That gives Zimmer a bump.

If your head coach is an elite offensive playcaller, it really helps. I’d love it if this weren’t the case, but it is. I cannot in good faith rank the 49ers and Rams coaching staffs in the middle of the pack simply because of uncertainty and inexperience at the coordinator spots.

When it came time to split hairs (and there was a lot of hair-splitting in this exercise) I put two teams beside one another and asked myself the hypothetical, “If I were starting a franchise, which staff would I take?” Without fail, that exercise bumped up the staffs that are captained by young, elite offensive minds.

I didn’t take special teams into consideration, nor any position coaches (save for a few key exceptions). I wish I could take special teams into consideration, but I simply don’t know enough about the third phase of the game to give it an honest effort.

In-game decision-making matters. It’s 2024. There is no excuse left to manage the clock poorly, or walk into the locker room with timeouts unused (looking at you, Shanahan). There’s no excuse to kick field goals on fourth-and-short in the low red area. We have the data! Players are increasingly accepting the change in philosophy. It’s time to evolve.

Being good is different from being valuable. There are 94 coaches on this list (no OC in San Francisco, no DC in Tampa Bay), and every single one of them has earned their spot. All are excellent coaches who do 10,000 things well that I don’t see or can’t measure.

But of the things I can see and measure, a hierarchy must exist. Chargers OC Greg Roman designs a beautiful running game, but that is objectively less valuable than designing a good passing game in the modern NFL. Were this just a ranking of skill as a coach, Roman might be higher than he is. But to win games in the NFL, you can’t just be good — you have to be good at the right stuff.

My perspective on what is valuable is just that: mine. It’s subjective and invites disagreement.

32. Las Vegas Raiders

Head coach: Antonio Pierce

Offensive coordinator: Luke Getsy

Defensive coordinator: Patrick Graham

I want to be very clear: I like Patrick Graham. Check my Patrick Graham receipts. I’m in on Graham.

But some team has to be 32 out of 32, even if there’s reason for optimism, and that unfortunate title falls on the Raiders. I’m always suspicious of interim-to-head coach promotions. The best success story for an interim promotion in the past 20 years is former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett. Do you really want to be angling for a Jason Garrett arc?

– – –

If Pierce can ride the ups-and-downs and grow on the job, I can see him being a good head coach in a few years — a CEO with a strong culture, like Campbell or Tomlin. But that’s a rosy, distant future. My expectations this season are low.

31. Washington Commanders

Head coach: Dan Quinn

Offensive coordinator: Kliff Kingsbury

Defensive coordinator: Joe Whitt Jr.

Listen. This is not good.

Quinn is a players’ coach, and he has a system he has run into the ground — he knows the ins and the outs of it, and he can get it on the field quickly and cleanly. The problem is every good offensive coordinator in the league knows how this defense works — four down, zone coverages, certain checks against certain formations — and can find success accordingly. Quinn’s “line up and play fast” approach can work with a souped-up roster like the one enjoyed in Dallas, where stars such as Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland could line up and beat the guy across from them. In Washington, where the defensive roster is really thin? The Quinn shtick won’t work as easily.

Now, Kingsbury is a players’ coach, and he has a system he’s run into the ground — he knows the ins and the outs of it, and he can get it on the field quickly and cleanly. Are you seeing the issue here? Kingsbury’s Air Raid approach far too often leaves his quarterback checking into screens, running pre-snap RPOs or praying a wide receiver wins a one-on-one deep down the field. This offense floundered in Arizona because there wasn’t enough multiplicity or deception, much as Quinn’s defenses struggle for their simplicity.

I love the vibes in the room — Quinn, Kliff and Whitt all get along well with the fellas. But schematically, this is as stale of a room as I can remember. Here’s hoping they prove me wrong.

30. New England Patriots

Head coach: Jerod Mayo

Offensive coordinator: Alex Van Pelt

Defensive coordinator: DeMarcus Covington

Mayo has held three jobs in this league: Patriots linebacker from 2008 to 2015, Patriots linebackers coach from 2019 to 2023, and now Patriots coach. He has only ever reported to Bill Belichick — both as a player and as a defensive playcaller, as he was sharing in those headset responsibilities for the past few seasons in New England. As such, there’s so much we don’t know about him. What sort of leader and communicator will he be? How much will he change in the defensive approach, if anything at all? Does he have a good Rolodex of coordinators and position coaches from outside of the Patriots universe? Of all the new coaches, he’s the biggest question mark.

I’m betting on Mayo. I don’t think it’s an accident the Patriots kept him in the building as Belichick’s presumed successor — they likely know they have a great defensive mind who provides a fresh breath of personality at the helm. What concerns me is his capacity to hire: Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has been an NFL coach since 2006. The Patriots are the sixth team he has worked for, and this will be his third crack at offensive coordinator.

29. New Orleans Saints

Head coach: Dennis Allen

Offensive coordinator: Klint Kubiak

Defensive coordinator: Joe Woods

Of the many coaches I unfortunately had to stick at the bottom of this ranking, Allen is one of the best. He can really coach a defense, man.

The bad news is this is his second stint as a head coach, and it isn’t going much better than the first stint. Allen is now 24-46 as a head coach, and his 9-8 season in 2023 was the first winning season of his career. His defense has fallen off as he has taken over the head-coaching reins, but there has been no offensive bump or shrewd game management in return for the defensive decline.

Perhaps the hiring of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will be a job-saving personnel decision, as Kubiak was the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco offense last season. We have seen Kubiak coordinate offense before, in Mike Zimmer’s final season as the coach of the Vikings, and he was running the classic Shanahan stuff (which is technically the classic Gary Kubiak stuff, but whatever). Maybe his season under Shanahan in San Francisco will spark some new ideas — the past two guys to leave the umbrella for playcalling jobs elsewhere were Mike McDaniel and Bobby Slowik. Pretty good!

28. Tennessee Titans

Head coach: Brian Callahan

Offensive coordinator: Nick Holz

Defensive coordinator: Dennard Wilson

High on the list of nerdy fascinations I have entering the 2024 season is the offense Callahan will run in Tennessee. Callahan, who got a lot of shine as the sherpa of the Bengals’ offense as they turned Joe Burrow into Peyton Manning, likes a spread-out offense with quick decisions and even quicker releases. In his career under Callahan, Burrow averaged 7.4 air yards per attempt with his time to throw of 2.74 seconds. Last season, Titans quarterback Will Levis? A league-leading 10.3 air yards per attempt with a time to throw of 2.97 seconds.

If Callahan succeeds, he’ll have to find a blend between the offense he ran for Burrow and the offense Levis ran last season: tons of screens, tons of deep play-action bombs. The offensive cupboard got loaded with weapons in the offseason — Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd — and Levis showed some nice flashes, so a solid Year 1 performance is a reasonable expectation from this offense.

This defense is a different matter. Wilson is one of three new defensive coordinators from the Mike Macdonald tree, and I don’t really have any reason to believe in any one over the other.

27. Carolina Panthers

Head coach: Dave Canales

Offensive coordinator: Brad Idzik

Defensive coordinator: Ejiro Evero

The Panthers get the bump over a few all-new staffs because of the retention of defensive coordinator Evero, who I firmly believe is a really solid coach.

Canales strikes me as a sharp guy, and I like the way he’s talking about resuscitating Bryce Young’s career with a 2.7-second offense. Canales and offensive coordinator Brad Idzik cannot bring with them the Baker Mayfield offense they installed in Tampa Bay, however, as Young’s skill set (and Carolina’s wide receivers room) both demand a different approach. This will largely be a learning year in Carolina, but I have high hopes for Canales as an offensive mind.

26. Seattle Seahawks

Head coach: Mike Macdonald

Offensive coordinator: Ryan Grubb

Defensive coordinator: Aden Durde

Of all the staffs with first-time head coaches, Seattle’s is the one I have the most interest in. Macdonald has the goods. He’s a renowned communicator and teacher, which is why he can get such a complex, disguise-heavy defense on the field when other NFL coaches struggle to sustain such a system.

I really love Macdonald’s coordinator decisions. He did not just hire guys he knows, but rather grabbed Aden Durde from Dallas, the schematic polar opposite to Macdonald’s defense in Baltimore. What can Durde — a Middlesex, England, native who was an NFL quality control coach as recently as 2019 — bring from Dan Quinn’s defense and integrate into Macdonald’s scheme? I don’t know, but the cross-pollination should be interesting.

Similarly, Grubb is a total unknown at the NFL level — hasn’t coached a day in the pros. I tend to be hesitant around career college guys making the NFL leap, but Grubb had a pretty pro-style offense at Washington with a diverse running game, full-field passing concepts and deep drops. Under Grubb, the Huskies hunted easy gains with RPOs and deep downfield when they got clear one-on-ones — those are two things that are much, much harder to do in the pros than in the college ranks. So, again: I expect growing pains, but don’t be surprised if this offense is pretty good at running the football early.

25. Chicago Bears

Head coach: Matt Eberflus

Offensive coordinator: Shane Waldron

Defensive coordinator: Eric Washington

I’d love to be more excited about the Bears coaching staff than I am. The jump the defense took last season was notable, as Eberflus was calling plays for the first time in his tenure, but the improvement had much more to do with personnel additions than any philosophy shift.

New defensive coordinator Washington is an interesting add. He spent the past four seasons in Buffalo under Sean McDermott and was with McDermott in Carolina, too.

On the offensive side of the ball, I remain intrigued by Waldron, who did some cool stuff in Seattle over his time there (2021-23). Pistol backfields, splitback, multiple-TE sets — he’ll get funky with formations and personnel

Eberflus was billed as a leader and a teacher, and here he is with great personnel, two (more) handpicked coordinators and a gem of a rookie quarterback. My quibbles with the scheme will quickly be forgotten if he gets this plane off the ground.

24. New York Giants

Head coach: Brian Daboll

Offensive coordinator: Mike Kafka

Defensive coordinator: Shane Bowen

There’s a chance that this is the ranking I look back on with the most embarrassment in a few months. Brian Daboll won the 2022 Coach of the Year award for somehow finding a half-decent offense in Daniel Jones’ pockets, and it’s hard to knock him (or offensive coordinator Mike Kafka) too much for a 2023 season derailed by quarterback injuries. Even now, in 2024, the deficiencies in the Giants’ offensive personnel should make it easy to defend Daboll if things go haywire.

Defensively, Shane Bowen is an appropriate compatriot to Daboll and Kafka — he loves to try some wacky stuff schematically and see if he can get the drop on opposing coordinators.

There’s creativity here, but is there consistency?

23. Denver Broncos

Head coach: Sean Payton

Offensive coordinator: Joe Lombardi

Defensive coordinator: Vance Joseph

When Payton returned to the coaching ranks in 2023, I was uncertain how much of his heart would be in it. I was not impressed by the effort last season, but he seems rejuvenated in Year 2, now that Russell Wilson is out of the building and his hand-selected rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, is in.

Joseph, who is in his third stint as an NFL defensive coordinator, is a veteran and established hand at the helm. Again, much like Payton, he isn’t running anything that is “en vogue.” Unlike Payton, that actually has been coming back to bite him pretty badly: His past two defenses ranked 26th and 30th in the league, respectively. Joseph needs to figure out some new ideas, and fast.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head coach: Todd Bowles

Offensive coordinator: Liam Coen

Defensive coordinator: none

Can someone get Bowles a game management assistant so I can bump the Buccaneers further up this list

Bowles has coordinated some great defenses in his day, but he has always underwhelmed as a head coach. The 2023 Buccaneers are certainly his biggest success story to date, and if he can weather the departure of Dave Canales (and a few offensive assistants Canales poached) to Carolina, then I’m willing to entertain the chance he has come around the corner as a head guy. But this is always the worry with a defensive head coach: Too much of his success relies on finding a good offensive coordinator, and when he does, that guy is whisked away after just one season.

An interesting candidate here in Coen, who used his Sean McVay connection to get an offensive coordinator job at Kentucky in 2021 (went great, ask Will Levis). In 2022, he took the coordinator job under Sean McVay in Los Angeles (the worst offense of McVay’s entire Rams tenure, though they were super injured). Then, in 2023, he went back to Kentucky as the offensive coordinator again (not nearly as good), and now he’s Tampa Bay’s coordinator.

I don’t really know what to do with this information. Coen’s most impressive work was adapting the Jared Goff-McVay offense to the college ranks, which is a tricky thing to pull off. But I’m not sure how well his success there predicts his success running an NFL offense for Baker Mayfield, who needs more than just Goff’s greatest hits to be successful in Tampa Bay. The real thing that needs fixing in Tampa? The running game. Coen has been a passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach his whole life.

21. Atlanta Falcons

Head coach: Raheem Morris

Offensive coordinator: Zac Robinson

Defensive coordinator: Jimmy Lake

I really didn’t know where to put the Falcons. They’re ranked far above all the other totally new staffs, which feels correct because Morris is not totally new.!

Morris is clearly a great leader and personality and is defensively trilingual, so I’m confident he’ll be good for the Falcons. Robinson is a much bigger unknown, though these guys who spend years in the Shanahan/McVay incubator tend to turn out pretty good (see; McDaniel, Mike, and O’Connell, Kevin). The fact Robinson gets to coach Kirk Cousins, the absolute poster child for the Sean McVay offense, should actually help him grow as a coach in Year 1, as Cousins (36) teaches the kid Robinson (37) a few things.

20. Arizona Cardinals

Head coach: Jonathan Gannon

Offensive coordinator: Drew Petzing

Defensive coordinator: Nick Rallis

If I wanted to be a real football hipster, I’d get the Cardinals higher in these rankings. The names aren’t buzzy, but Arizona’s coaching staff was making schematic waves on both sides of the ball last season. Petzing used Kyler Murray’s mobility in a new way, putting the quarterback under center and running heavy personnel with a big back in James Conner to present a thunder-and-lightning backfield that could still hit teams with a deep play-action shot.

Gannon and Rallis, who handle the defensive side of the ball, were so low on talent last season they were grasping for straws structurally.

Something else that will be nice for Gannon? Getting one year removed from “Hard Knocks” and another year removed from Murray contract detail drama. When Gannon hired Rallis and Petzing, he was 40, Petzing was 35 and Rallis was 29, the youngest coordinator in the league. This staff was always going to take time, and as they move further away from the upheaval the old guard left behind, it’ll become easier for them to grow.

19. New York Jets

Head coach: Robert Saleh

Offensive coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett

Defensive coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich

When I sent the first iteration of my list out for feedback, the only unanimous response I got was “Jets are too high.” I knocked ’em down a few pegs, but not too many, and that’s because Saleh and Ulbrich are spectacular defensive coaches.

Now, onto that nightmare of an offense. Saleh deserves blame for not moving on from Zach Wilson sooner — both as QB1 and as QB2 — but I can’t put too much of that on his plate. The big knock I will deliver is the hiring of Hackett, which was a kowtowing to Aaron Rodgers as the real decision-maker in New York. Hackett is not an imposing offensive mind, and he drags this coaching staff down in my rankings accordingly.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars

Head coach: Doug Pederson

Offensive coordinator: Press Taylor

Defensive coordinator: Ryan Nielsen

Pederson is one of only three head coaches on this list to have won a Super Bowl in the past 10 years. The other two (Andy Reid, Sean McVay) have staffs that are in my top five. Yet here are the Jaguars, all the way down at No. 18.

Pederson hasn’t done in Jacksonville much of what made him successful during his early years in Philadelphia (2016-20).

Taylor, who has long been connected to Pederson, has been the subject of offensive frustration. He took over playcalling in 2023 and it looks like he’ll keep it in 2024 even though the offense declined in success rate, points per drive and expected points added per play once he manned the headset.

Nielsen, his new defensive coordinator, was one of the pleasant surprises in last year’s coaching carousel. As a first-year DC for the Falcons, he got substantial overachievement out of a thin roster. I expect big things in Jacksonville, where he has a bit more talent to work with.

17. Los Angeles Chargers

Head coach: Jim Harbaugh

Offensive coordinator: Greg Roman

Defensive coordinator: Jesse Minter

If we’re just ranking head coaches, Jim Harbaugh is probably fringe top 10. But we’re not ranking head coaches — we’re ranking entire staffs. Ten of the past 12 years of Roman’s NFL employment have been directly under a Harbaugh brother, and he’s back for his third stint as a pro coordinator. I acknowledge he is one of the best run-game designers in professional football, and his ability to graft college trends into offenses is nifty. But the limitations of his passing attack in Baltimore were very apparent, both in design and in detail. I

Minter is another branch of the Harbaugh tree. He spent four years in Baltimore under John, took a year off from the Harbaughs at Vanderbilt and then spent two seasons at Michigan under Jim. He has a more modern sense of scheme than Roman, and I’m excited to see the iteration of the Mike Macdonald defense he puts on the field.

I can’t just wave my hand at Harbaugh’s excellent 49ers tenure (2011-14) and say, “The Chargers staff is good.”

16. Dallas Cowboys

Head coach: Mike McCarthy

Offensive coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer

Defensive coordinator: Mike Zimmer

Do you remember McCarthy’s great analytics revolution? The year off coaching he spent grinding the spreadsheets at Pro Football Focus? It wasn’t all lip service, it turns out. The Cowboys are one of the league’s most pass-happy teams, especially since he took playcalling duties following the dismissal of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore after the 2022 season. McCarthy was also sixth in the league in expected points added gained on fourth-down decisions last season — he was making the right decision on fourth-down punts, field goals and attempts far more often than he wasn’t.

McCarthy is holding up his side of the offensive bargain — it’s the clock management that’s hurting him.

Dallas would have been lower if not for the Zimmer hire. Zimmer is a great defensive coordinator — he was a pretty good head coach with some bad quarterback luck, but that’s a soapbox for another day. Zimmer replaces Dan Quinn, who was another great defensive coach, but philosophically, Zimmer is much better suited for beating those top NFC offenses with which Quinn has typically struggled. San Francisco, Detroit, Green Bay — they’re all chips off the Shanahan/McVay block, which means they’re great against a Quinn defense. Zimmer, who mixes up his fronts and his blitzes much more readily than Quinn, should give the Cowboys a new edge in the playoffs against those key opponents, even if the season-long production of his defense is a little worse than Quinn’s.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Head coach: Nick Sirianni

Offensive coordinator: Kellen Moore

Defensive coordinator: Vic Fangio

I have no idea how to rank the Eagles. I shouldn’t even be expected to write a blurb about the Eagles. I should just gesticulate wildly at the numerous and detailed reports of coaching dysfunction last season, shrug my shoulders and keep it moving.

I don’t know how to credit Sirianni. He’s the best fourth-down decision-maker in the league by the numbers, but so much of that success is a credit to the tush push, not any particular genius from the head coach. The complete collapse of the Eagles’ offense from the Shane Steichen era to the Brian Johnson experiment indicates to me that Sirianni was not much of a schematic influence on the successful Jalen Hurts offense of 2022. And as a leader, motivator and manager of personalities, the reports from last season are extremely rough.

Fangio had a tough time with the Dolphins’ locker room last season, but he was a key voice in the success of the 2022 Eagles defense and remains one of the shrewdest defensive coaches in the league. Some of the shine is off Moore, who interviewed for the Eagles’ head-coaching job back in 2021 at the height of his hype.

I have the Eagles 15th because I’d love to have Fangio calling my defense and Moore calling my offense. A wide range of outcomes is conceivable from this group this season, though. Buckle up!

14. Cincinnati Bengals

Head coach: Zac Taylor

Offensive coordinator: Dan Pitcher

Defensive coordinator: Lou Anarumo

This is an important year for Taylor. He isn’t on the hot seat or anything, but Cincinnati’s offensive evolution over the past few seasons has been the subject of much scrutiny. With longtime coordinator Brian Callahan and running back Joe Mixon out of the building, Tee Higgins approaching his last season as a Bengal, Ja’Marr Chase not yet practicing as he holds in for a new contract and Burrow experimenting with a glove between reps at training camp … well, Taylor has a lot to figure out for this offense.

I’ve had my doubts about Taylor, but I thought last season was the best sign for offensive ingenuity that we’ve seen from his Bengals tenure, so the arrow is pointing up there. On the flip side, I’ve long been a big believer in Anarumo, who is one of the best defensive coaches against elite quarterbacks — which is hugely valuable.

13. Cleveland Browns

Head coach: Kevin Stefanski

Offensive coordinator: Ken Dorsey

Defensive coordinator: Jim Schwartz

If I had to guess which fan base will be most upset with me because of these rankings, I’m going with Cleveland. Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year, Dorsey’s offenses in Buffalo were extremely productive and Schwartz’s 2023 defense speaks for itself.

I’m not sold on the offensive changes Stefanski has deployed over the past couple of seasons, though. Stefanski gets credit for working around bad quarterbacks to keep the offense afloat last season, but he hasn’t yet found the secret sauce for overcoming Watson’s poor play. Dorsey is meant to help the offense in the spread/gun/RPO world, as that’s what he ran for Josh Allen in Buffalo, but he wasn’t so much of a schematic magician as he was a “let Josh cook” point guard. I can’t rank this offensive staff above those that have shown they can do more than buttress QB2s and 3s for a few games.

Schwartz? Very good. Terrifying defensive coordinator. Every defensive coach in the league wishes he had the constitution to line ’em up and dominate with speed and length at every position, but Schwartz laps them all.

12. Buffalo Bills

Head coach: Sean McDermott

Offensive coordinator: Joe Brady

Defensive coordinator: Bobby Babich

I’m buying low on McDermott. Yes, he might never get over the playoff hump in a crowded AFC, but the Bills were much more creative on the defensive side of the ball than they had ever been in McDermott’s tenure. Necessity was the mother of invention, as a gamut of injuries forced them to find ways to help their young and incomplete players. My hope and suspicion is that Babich, a safety and linebacker coach with Buffalo before his promotion, had a hand in some of the spicier schemes last season, when McDermott was calling plays and nobody officially held the defensive coordinator title.

Brady is a good offensive coach who got a massive PR bump (the 2019 LSU Tigers — ever heard of ’em?). Many of the changes he made to the Bills offense when he took over from Ken Dorsey midseason were overstated in their impact — a couple more runs a game, a few fewer Diggs targets — but he does major work in the spread-‘n’-shred offense that has typically gotten the best out of Allen. The fit here is nice. I’m more willing to stick a feather in the cap of offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, the quiet agent behind the Bills’ steady improvement in the running game over the past two seasons.

11. Indianapolis Colts

Head coach: Shane Steichen

Offensive coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter

Defensive coordinator: Gus Bradley

I’m not willing to call Cooter the best offensive coordinator that nobody talks about, but I’m close. He was one of the only offensive coordinators to get something really special out of Matthew Stafford in Detroit, he was there in Philadelphia when the Eagles figured out how to make Jalen Hurts work, he was in Jacksonville during Trevor Lawrence’s best season and now he’s in Indianapolis again with Steichen, with whom he worked in Philadelphia.

And this offensive coaching staff just gets it.

A word on Steichen as a playcaller: It’s a hard thing to measure, but his game sense on the headset seems unique. That 2022 Eagles offense was one of the simplest we’ve seen in the past few years, running a small quantity of pass concepts. They were basic, but Steichen kept things afloat because he always knew how and when to play the greatest hits and when to pitch his changeup. What he can do with a small menu of plays is reminiscent to what Sean McVay pulled off with Jared Goff in the late 2010s.

Bradley has been a defensive coordinator or head coach in every season since 2009. Think about that! Not a single season off as a senior defensive assistant or recuperating at home. I wish the Colts would modernize on defense. The past four seasons of Bradley’s defenses have been the four worst in his career by success rate; offenses have gotten wise to the bit.

10. Minnesota Vikings

Head coach: Kevin O’Connell

Offensive coordinator: Wes Phillips

Defensive coordinator: Brian Flores

I found the Vikings challenging to rank. I want to put O’Connell’s name right next to that of Matt LaFleur or Mike McDaniel as an offensive innovator, but I can’t honestly say his branch of the McVay/Shanahan offense is as prosperous as those

If I could, the Vikings would have leapt up the board on the back of Flores, one of the league’s best defensive coaches. He is a havoc-wreaker, a madman at the wheel. No team rushed with at least six bodies more than Flores’ Vikings last season, which he did on a whopping 26% of dropbacks (the next closest was 11%). And no team sent only three rushers more frequently than Flores’ Vikings, which he did in another 20% of opponent dropbacks (next closest was 11%).

I don’t know if the league will give it to him, but Flores deserves another crack at a head coaching gig. For as long as he doesn’t get it, the Vikings will be huge beneficiaries.

Head coach: Mike McDaniel

Offensive coordinator: Frank Smith

Defensive coordinator: Anthony Weaver

McDaniel is the author of the greatest miracle in football over the past few years: turning Tua Tagovailoa from a “We can kinda get a decent offense on the field with this guy” to “We are setting records with this guy” overnight. The acquisition of Tyreek Hill was an enormous part of the leap, of course, but what McDaniel has done with Tagovailoa is more impressive than what Sean McVay did for Jared Goff or Kyle Shanahan did for Jimmy Garoppolo. This is the greatest schematic lifting of a quarterback we’ve ever seen from this offense.

It is only because I hold McDaniel in such high esteem that the Dolphins make it this high in the rankings. Weaver is a first-time defensive coordinator about whom we know little

8. Green Bay Packers

Head coach: Matt LaFleur

Offensive coordinator: Adam Stenavich

Defensive coordinator: Jeff Hafley

At 56-27 (.675), LaFleur has the 11th-best win-loss percentage in NFL history. Only Jim Harbaugh (.695 in four seasons with the 49ers) is better than him in the 21st century. LaFleur’s regular-season success was more of a fun novelty than a meaningful achievement when all of his wins came with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Now that he has successfully launched the career of Jordan Love, it’s easier to see just how much value he brings.

It is very hard to do what LaFleur did last season: win with youth.

Of course, the defense came back to bite them again in the postseason (and again against those pesky 49ers, who have handed LaFleur three of his four playoff losses). So Joe Barry is out and Jeff Hafley, the former Boston College coach who made headlines by jumping to the league for a coordinator position, is in.  I am always suspicious of college coaches finding success in the league.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers

Head coach: Mike Tomlin

Offensive coordinator: Arthur Smith

Defensive coordinator: Teryl Austin

Without question, this is the most difficult team to place. I am positive Tomlin is a good head coach. Nobody in the league squeezes more blood from tougher stones than Tomlin, who has somehow not had a losing season during the worst quarterback carousel I can ever remember: late-career chuck-and-duck Ben Roethlisberger, backups Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges splitting time and resounding first-round bust Kenny Pickett spelled by Mitchell Trubisky. Much Tomlin criticism is just incognito praise. Yes, the Steelers have lost their past five playoff games (bad), but the fact they’ve made it to the playoffs with these preposterously bad offenses is a testament to Tomlin (good).

How much credit can you dole out to the head coach for enduring this nightmare when he is, in part, at fault for authoring it? Tomlin, who has a defensive background, has struggled to find a good offensive coordinator.

I don’t love the quarterback room, but I do think Smith is a good offensive coordinator.

I like him and Austin, who has produced two over-performing defenses in two seasons as the defensive coordinator in Pittsburgh. This is a strong staff.

6. Houston Texans

Head coach: DeMeco Ryans

Offensive coordinator: Bobby Slowik

Defensive coordinator: Matt Burke

When Chip Kelly was still a coach in the league, he was asked which of his ex-players would be a future head coach, and he said Ryans. Then, a few years later, he said, “It wouldn’t surprise me if DeMeco became president.” I think about that line a lot, because it wouldn’t surprise me if Ryans was the best head coach in football in, like, 10 years.

This is probably too high for the Texans to be ranked, but I cannot overstate my belief in Ryans. Kelly isn’t the only guy to tag Ryans as a future head coach; Kyle Shanahan predicted it when he made Ryans a defensive coordinator in 2021 despite Ryans’ measly four years of coaching experience. Ryans’ teammates at Alabama just straight called him “Coach.” This guy has had it since Day 1, and everyone who meets him feels it and believes it. Just watch the effort with which a Ryans-coached defense plays, and you’ll get it, too.

First-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik found success as well, deploying a traditional Shanahan-inspired passing attack that succeeded despite a lackluster running game and a devastating injury carousel along the offensive line.

Slowik’s Year 2 improvements are important. He’s a good offensive coordinator, but teams will be preparing for Stroud a little differently this season, and the running game must be more reliable to keep Stroud’s downfield, play-action dominance where it was last season. But even in 2023, the Texans started to ramp up the early-down-pass heaviness as Stroud proved he could handle it. I’m confident this is a smart staff deserving of a lofty ranking.

5. Baltimore Ravens

Head coach: John Harbaugh

Offensive coordinator: Todd Monken

Defensive coordinator: Zach Orr

Oh, how badly I wanted to put the Ravens above the 49ers and the Rams. If I had certainty in the state of the defensive coaching staff, they’d easily be No. 3, maybe even No. 2. But the defensive brain drain is difficult to ignore: Coordinator Mike Macdonald, line coach Anthony Weaver and secondary coach Dennard Wilson all left the franchise this offseason. That’s as big of a change of any team.

Now, if there’s a head coach I trust to shepherd his team through the change, it’s Harbaugh.

Harbaugh has proved he can adjust his staff and philosophy successfully (see: transition from Wink Martindale to Macdonald in 2022). He’s also one of the league’s preeminent game managers, which minimizes the impact of those early bumps in coaching transitions. I gave the Lions the nod for the strength of the staff across the board, but if you made me pick just one “CEO” coach with whom to start my franchise, I would take Harbaugh over Campbell and the rest of the field.

4. San Francisco 49ers

Head coach: Kyle Shanahan

Offensive coordinator: none

Defensive coordinator: Nick Sorensen

I don’t know much about Sorensen. Shanahan has a proven history in identifying rising defensive talent (Robert Saleh, DeMeco Ryans), so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here. But if we make Sorensen to largely be a question mark, and if we make having no offensive coordinator to also be a question mark (seems fair), then we’re ranking the San Francisco coaching staff almost exclusively on the quality of Shanahan as a head coach.

So he comes in No. 4 overall.

Maybe this is too rich. Shanahan’s issues with game management are well-documented. He is one of the most cautious coaches in an increasingly aggressive league; he regularly sits on the ball at the end of the first half, settling for long field goal attempts for fear of any negative plays. He attempts field goals on fourth-and-shorts that every other coach is going for. He manages the game like a coach with the best defense and the worst offense, which is funny, because he literally always has the best offense.

And that’s the rub: He always has the best offense. This is an offense-driven league, and I simply cannot knock the guy who took the last pick in the 2022 draft and produced a better offense with him than the Chiefs have had with Patrick Mahomes

So, yes, Shanahan isn’t the best drafter in the world. (Please take the picks away from him, John Lynch.) Yes, he puts young players in the doghouse too often. Yes, he doesn’t even have a ring yet. But he is so good that he alone is one of the four best staffs in football.

3. Los Angeles Rams

Head coach: Sean McVay

Offensive coordinator: Mike LaFleur

Defensive coordinator: Chris Shula

McVay’s Rams would make a strong case for a top-two slot if former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris were still around, but you could put Ben Solak in at defensive coordinator, and it’d be hard to drop the Rams much lower than No. 3.

McVay’s arc as the Rams’ coach has been eventful and illuminating. An offensive whiz kid who looked unstoppable until he crashed into Bill Belichick’s defense in Super Bowl LIII, he has gone through a self-documented evolution as a coach and as an individual. The L.A. offense has changed schematically, casting away the outside zone runs of yesteryear for a more physical, downhill approach. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has allowed McVay to get deep in his bag of shotgun passes, which McVay has done with aplomb. The system he runs now is not the system that got him hired and got him famous in the late 2010s.

That personal growth and emotional intelligence is a key factor when differentiating McVay from his contemporary, Kyle Shanahan. It’s a matter of inches, but I think Shanahan is the slightly better offensive mind — but McVay seems to get along better with his players and lets his personnel department work for him, which produces a better team overall. It’s not fair to say Stafford chose Los Angeles over San Francisco because he favored McVay over Shanahan, but the fact of the matter is McVay got Stafford into the building and has the hardware to show for it.

The keys of the defense now belong to Shula, McVay’s teammate from his Miami (Ohio) college days. I am always suspicious of hires with a nepotistic tint, but McVay hired Shula the year he became the Rams coach, and Shula has spent seven seasons working his way up to this role. It was not handed to him for free — in fact, he’s McVay’s first ever internal promotion to a coordinator position (along with LaFleur). Shula’s time under Wade Phillips, Brandon Staley and Morris gives him a wide range of influences, and I’m fascinated to see what the Rams’ defensive identity becomes under him (without Aaron Donald on the field).

2. Detroit Lions

Head coach: Dan Campbell

Offensive coordinator: Ben Johnson

Defensive coordinator: Aaron Glenn

There’s not a single thing Campbell doesn’t do right. He has been consistently correct on fourth-down and 2-point decisions. Perhaps more importantly, his team is behind him when he makes judgment calls on 50-50 calls, as he had to do in the NFC Championship Game loss last season. That’s culture right there.

Culture works in other ways, too. A lot of young players have earned reps and blossomed in Detroit over Campbell’s tenure. Amon-Ra St. Brown, a fourth-round rookie on the floundering 2021 team, is the best example: He worked his way into the slot job and has become one of the best receivers in the league a few seasons later. Ifeatu Melifonwu, who had all the makings of a bust, was a critical player late last season as the lightbulb finally clicked for the safety. It’s hard to build a locker room of faith and patience like that, and Campbell has done it expertly.

Some of Campbell’s best decisions look obvious in hindsight, but it’s easy to forget how bold they were at the time. Bumping Penei Sewell, an elite left tackle in college, to right tackle is the sort of thing lesser players and lesser coaching staffs mess up. Firing an established offensive coach in Anthony Lynn to promote Ben Johnson — an unknown coach with no playcalling experience — to offensive coordinator was the move that saved Jared Goff’s career.

Let’s talk about Johnson, who is probably the best offensive coordinator on this list. Detroit’s offense has been a top-10 unit by DVOA and expected points added in each of the past two seasons, and he has received several head-coaching interviews accordingly. This with a quarterback who the Rams had to pay the Lions to take on; with a receiver room perilously thin behind St. Brown; without a single splashy free agent addition save for … David Montgomery? As non-head-coach playcallers go, Johnson is the best in the business.

And on the other side of the ball? Glenn was voted as the top-ranked coordinator in the league by the NFLPA last season. The metrics of the Detroit defense aren’t as good as the offense, but they took a huge step forward in run defense last season. With a revamped cornerback room, the coverage should catch up.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Head coach: Andy Reid

Offensive coordinator: Matt Nagy

Defensive coordinator: Steve Spagnuolo

It’s a little too easy to say, “The Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls, so they’re the best coaching staff,” but sometimes it’s that simple: The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

The Chiefs take the pole position not just because of their offensive dominance — a lot of coaches are perennially producing a top offense, and most of those teams don’t have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. It’s their work on the defensive side of the ball that truly impresses.

The rest is self-evident. Reid has been one of the league’s best offensive minds since the early 2000s, which is an unparalleled level of longevity, and while his clock management isn’t perfect, it’s far improved from the days it was a meme-worthy Achilles heel.

This really is a good read, even if the rankings are debateable and we regret that about a third of it was cut and you (the DB reader) don’t know where or what was cut.  For the full flavor, you can read the whole thing here.

GAMBLING RULES

The NFL has six basic rules for gambling and players.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com suggests a seventh:

The NFL has managed to get through the offseason without any gambling controversies. As the 2024 regular-season approaches, the league is reminding everyone of the six basic rules that apply to players under the league’s gambling policy.

Like last year, these provisions apply:

1. “NEVER bet on the NFL: Includes other NFL events such as Draft, Combine, Pro Bowl, & NFL Honors.”

2. “Don’t have someone bet for you: Do not ask family, friends, or others to place a bet for you.”

3. “Don’t gamble (no bets on sports, casino or card games) at your team facility/stadium, while traveling for a road game, or staying at a team hotel.”

4. “Don’t share team ‘inside information’: Don’t share information that hasn’t been announced by team.”

5. “Don’t enter a sportsbook during the NFL playing season.”

6. “Don’t play daily fantasy football.”

It’s basic, it’s simple, it’s accurate. But it’s not entirely complete. The six rules omit one important fact — do not gamble on any sports at any time in jurisdictions where gambling is not yet legalized.

Some would say it’s an obvious point. Still, it’s an important one. With gambling so widely accepted and advertised and incorporated into NFL pregame shows, players in the remaining states where it has yet to be legalized might think it’s OK to gamble on non-NFL events in the old-school way: Through a bookie.

That’s a problem, and not just because it technically violates the law in those states. The FanDuels and DraftKings of the world get your money up front. Bookies operate on credit. And, as we learned in the Shohei Ohtani/Ippei Mizuhara situation, that debt can grow. And grow. And grow.

That debt can be used to generate leverage, as it apparently was with former NBA player Jontay Porter. He exited games early, gamblers bet the unders on his prop bets, and they made money — until it all blew up.

It’s not hard to rectify. Currently, there are six rules. Make it seven. Never bet on sports in a state where sports betting is illegal.

And, really, why not take it one step farther? Never use a private bookie for placing bets on sports. Since they operate on credit, they’re surely still out there, even in the states where legal apps are prevalent.

Given that the FanDuels and DraftKings of the world have ratted out to the NFL players who used those apps, that’s another reason for players to make otherwise legal wagers through technically illegal avenues.

There’s no harm in adding it to the list. There could be harm if players think it’s OK to bet on other sports with a bookie. And then, once the player racks up a gigantic debt, the things that happen next might not be OK, for anyone.

According to Forbes.com, these are the states where it is “illegal” including some big, some small, some blue, some red:

Sports betting in any form is currently illegal in California, Texas, Idaho, Utah, Minnesota, Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Alaska and Hawaii.