Bill Belichick thinks that as time goes by, teams will more and more be willing to take the 30-yard line with a touchback.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The NFL changed the kickoff rule this offseason in an attempt to promote more returns. Bill Belichick doesn’t think it’s going to work.

Belichick told Pat McAfee that he expects most teams to kick the ball into the end zone for a touchback, even though the new rule means the ball goes out to the 30-yard line on touchbacks. Belichick said that for the kicking team, the risk of giving up a long return isn’t worth kicking it to a spot on the field where the receiving team will have a chance to run it out.

“I think what we saw in preseason was most teams kicking the ball so it would be returned so they could evaluate their coverage,” Belichick said. “Once you get into the regular season, just touchback ‘em. I mean, you put the ball on the 30 instead of the 25, big deal, I’d rather do that than kick it to one of these guys who’s got a chance to change field position on you in a hurry. I think we saw more returns in the preseason, percentage-wise, than we’re going to see in the regular season.”

Belichick wishes the NFL hadn’t made such a radical rule change on kickoffs and instead had just promoted more returns by moving the kickoff back far enough that kickers won’t be able to put the ball in the end zone.

“It’s pretty hard to get used to,” Belichick said. “Just move the ball back and kick off from the 20 or 25 or put it wherever you want to put it. If you want kickoff returns, just move the ball back.”

The new rule, however, wasn’t only designed to promote returns. It was also designed to reduce injuries, and the low-impact nature of having the coverage players and the blockers lined up only five yards apart, without the chance to get a running start, should work to make the play safer. But Belichick doesn’t think safer means better.

The DB is of a mind that while kickers might not go all out to drive the ball through the end zone, they are still going to drive it to the goal line or a couple of yards deep and if it is not fielded for a touchback, so be it.  You don’t want it coming down on the eight and just being brought back to the 28 or so, with the risk of a long return.

– – –

Ben Standig of The Athletic surveyed 31 anonymous agents about various subjects.  We will have more tomorrow – but here they dish on the best and worst organizations from their standpoint

WHICH IS THE BEST RUN FRANCHISE?

Eagles             5

49ers               5

Chiefs              4

Packers            3

Vikings             2

Steelers           2

Ravens            2

Dolphins          2

Texans            1

Rams               1

Lions                1

Falcons            1

Colts                1

Bills                 1

The Good:

• “49ers. The way they treat people and don’t skimp on expenses. Highly professional.”

• “49ers. You have to fit within their culture, but they allow players and employees to be themselves, and they win even while getting the staff poached by other teams every year.”

• “Eagles. Every year, free agents want to go there. They reward players, and (GM) Howie (Roseman) nails the draft.”

• “This is easy. Eagles. What an organized group with football and front-office business. Every year, they are on top of their game.”

• “The Chiefs deal with so much, good and bad, and yet keep winning. Hall of Fame coach and GM, QB, tight end and ownership.”

• “Green Bay has an excellent front office, starting with (GM Brian) Gutekunst, and they rebuilt the team on the fly after the Aaron Rodgers trade without mortgaging the future. I’m unsure if their different ownership structure helps, but they have a good plan and staff every year. Players like it there, small market or not.”

• “Miami ranked first in the NFLPA report cards. That says plenty.”

• “This is easy. The Ravens win and have a family-organization approach. They have the best talent evaluators in football, and John Harbaugh is a stud.”

• “Steelers. What a consistent, traditional franchise. There’s no bull crap, and they win relatively consistently.”

• “Vikings. Great facilities. They do all the little things for the players and their families and handle relationships with class.”

The rest:

• “Panthers. Organizational stability comes from the owner, and the front office needs more time than the owner (David Tepper) gives. A strong QB can keep a team viable regardless of the front office, but what’s the plan?”

• “Panthers. I think the headline for this section should be that for the first time in my career, most NFL organizations are relatively competent. I can only think of a few that aren’t run well, starting with Carolina because of Tepper’s involvement. They didn’t get a big haul in the Brian Burns trade, either.”

• “Raiders. The owner (Mark Davis) frequently makes significant changes. He put Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler in charge and fired them after less than two seasons. Now, the Raiders have an inexperienced coach in Antonio Pierce and a retread GM hire in Tom Telesco. Organizations start at the top, and Davis doesn’t provide stability.”

• “Raiders. Traditional choices in this category, like Washington and Arizona, have improved or appear headed in a good direction. Vegas keeps making changes and now finds itself without an apparent quarterback of the future or legitimate starter when it needed one following last season.”

• “Cardinals. The Kyler Murray extension is why they are stuck. Why give Kyler that extension and quickly fire the head coach who wanted him and the GM who drafted him? You can’t fire the QB.”

• “Cowboys. I don’t think they want to win above all. Jerry (Jones) wants to turn profits and make headlines. I think the game has passed him by.”

• “Jets. There is complete disarray over there. Look at how they’ve handled Aaron Rodgers. Has one player had more power than him? He skipped minicamp. They have been unable to convert him into a team player. The vibe inside the building is terrible.”

• “Broncos. There’s dysfunction between the GM and the coach over who is calling the shots. Somehow (Sean) Payton has wrestled control from George Paton.”

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Jerry Jones and the Cowboys got the WR CEEDEE LAMB deal done, but the owner/gm/chief spokesman doesn’t see a contract coming to fruition for QB DAK PRESCOTT in the short term.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Now that the Cowboys have signed star receiver CeeDee Lamb to a long-term extension, it’s Dak Prescott’s turn.

Owner Jerry Jones said what he hinted recently: The Cowboys do not expect to complete a deal with their quarterback before the start of the season. They open with the Browns on Sept. 8.

“We don’t need to get this done before the season,” Jones told Clarence Hill of DLLS. “We just don’t need to get it done before the season. Because it’s in all of our interest, Dak and everybody, to have a great season. And as a matter of fact, that’s probably not realistic to think before the season. But my thought sitting right here is we’ll have Dak [as Cowboys quarterback in 2025 and beyond]. But all I’m going to say is this: It’s not done yet.”

Prescott is entering the final year of his four-year, $160 million contract, scheduled to count $55 million against the salary cap. The Cowboys will take on $40 million in dead cap in 2025 if he’s not on the roster.

He has no-trade and no-tag clauses, so Prescott can choose to hit the free agent market, where he could command $60 million per year on a new contract.

Unlike some teams, the Cowboys do not cut off contract talks once the season starts.

Jones is confident — sort of — in having Prescott as his quarterback in 2025 and beyond.

“I think I am. I am,” Jones told Hill. “But I understand completely. I understand our challenge. But confident is not a word for me here. I feel that I think that we can do it. We have not figured it out yet.”

It took the Cowboys two years of negotiating to get Prescott’s second contract completed. They have had two years to extend that contract and haven’t, so they are where they are.

They could have Prescott back for his 10th season in 2025 . . . or they could be looking for a new starter.

Jones has faith in Prescott’s ability to win it all despite the three-time Pro Bowler’s 2-5 postseason record.

“Yes, there is no question in my mind. Yes, we can win with Dak,” Jones said. “It’s just not a question in my mind.”

The bigger question for Jones and the Cowboys might be whether they will complete a long-term deal with Prescott before free agency begins in 2025.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

If you are wondering if QB KIRK COUSINS will be an asset if you draft him in Fantasy, RB BIJAN ROBINSON says “don’t worry.”  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Falcons invited plenty of speculation regarding their quarterback plans for Week 1 when coach Raheem Morris decided not to play rookie Michael Penix Jr. in either of the final two preseason games. Did that mean they’re concerned Kirk Cousins isn’t ready to go, following his torn Achilles tendon?

Running back Bijan Robinson believes Cousins is indeed good to go.

“He’s definitely ready to go,” Bijan told Jim Rome on Wednesday. “You know, he looks amazing like he didn’t even tear his Achilles. I mean, the dude’s out here sprinting in practice and just having fun with it. So like I know he’s amped up, I know he’s ready to go. But just to see like his progress from when he got here to now, and seeing how ready he is, I’m excited for him.”

That’s good news for the Falcons, if Cousins truly is ready not just to sprint but to plant his foot hard into the ground and to change directions decisively and suddenly without any issues in his surgically-repaired leg.

Whatever his current status, the Falcons opted not to let Penix get useful reps in two games that don’t count. If Cousins will be the wire-to-wire starter, they were the only reps Penix would be getting until the 2025 preseason.

So, yes, it’s still odd. And it will seem that way until Cousins is on the field playing like he was before he suffered the injury in 2023, six days after arguably one of his best career performances, on a Monday night against the 49ers.

The Falcons host the Steelers in 12 days to start the 2024 season.

The Fantasy cheat sheet the DB printed up today has Robinson as the #3 value in the entire NFL, while Cousins is valued 18^th among QBs.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

If QB MATTHEW STAFFORD passes for 4,000 yards in 2024, he will be the 10^thmember of a club that, except for maybe Matt Ryan, signals Hall of Fame enshrinement. ESPN.com:

Only eight NFL quarterbacks have reached 60,000 regular-season passing yards in their career, and two more could join the 60K club during the 2024 season.

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 945 yards away and the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford needs 3,943 yards.

Rodgers, 40, enters the season ranked ninth all time in passing yards (59,055) and should easily be able to join the 60K club if he stays healthy. After playing four snaps in 2023, his first with the Jets, he went down because of a season-ending Achilles injury.

Stafford, on the other hand, has some work to do. If he repeats his production from last season (3,965 yards), he’ll be in. But first he must pass Eli Manning (57,023 yards) for 10th on the all-time list, needing 976 yards.

Matt Ryan was the last quarterback to cross the 60,000-yard threshold in 2022, but after Rodgers and Stafford, no other active quarterback is close. Joe Flacco (43,936 yards) and Russell Wilson (43,653 yards) enter the season as the only others with more than 40,000 passing yards.

Beyond Wilson, here are the next group of active QBs in yards

5          Kirk Cousins              39471

6          Derek Carr                39100

7          Andy Dalton              38511

8          Ryan Tannehill            34881  (maybe not active, but not retired)

9          Jared Goff                  30429

10        Dak Prescott               29459

11        Patrick Mahomes        28424

Goff and Prescott are about halfway to 60,000.  Are they at the mid-point of their careers?

SAN FRANCISCO

GM John Lynch sounds optimistic that T TRENT WILLIAMS will be around.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

49ers General Manager John Lynch is optimistic that holdout left tackle Trent Williams will agree to return to San Francisco soon.

Lynch sang Williams’ praises in discussing his holdout, saying that the trade to acquire Williams from Washington was one of his best days as the 49ers’ GM and that he’s eager for the day to come when Williams returns to the team.

“The Trent situation, things come up, and this has come up,” Lynch said. “Trent’s a fantastic player, he’s a tremendous leader on this team. I will never fall short on my praise of Trent and what he’s meant to this place. It was a great day when I got that call from [then-Washington coach Ron] Rivera saying they would do that trade, and he’s been incredible since he’s been here. We value Trent, we love Trent, we want Trent here, and I’m hopeful that can happen soon.”

Unlike the situation with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, there has been little reporting on what Williams wants, what it would take to get him to play for the 49ers again, or whether there’s any chance he could be traded elsewhere. No one seems to know what’s going on with Williams or why he skipped all of training camp and the preseason. But Lynch sounds like he expects Williams to put on his 49ers uniform soon.

AFC WEST

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

QB TAYLOR HEINICKE seemed a prime candidate for a trade the moment the Falcons turned in the name “Michael Penix, Jr.” on draft day.  And now that trade has come. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Falcons are sending third quarterback Taylor Heinicke to the Chargers for a conditional sixth-round pick, Dianna Russini of TheAthletic.com reports.

The Chargers needed a No. 2 quarterback behind Justin Herbert, who missed time in training camp with a plantar fascia injury in his right foot.

The Chargers kept Easton Stick, who went 25-of-55 for 303 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in the preseason, and they cut Luis Perez on Tuesday. But they obviously had the eye on an upgrade behind Herbert, with Stick going 0-4 last season when Herbert underwent surgery on his finger.

Heinicke was behind Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. on the Falcons’ roster.

The Falcons kept him on the initial 53-player roster hoping to trade him, and the Chargers answered their call Wednesday.

Heinicke has played 38 games, starting 29, and has thrown for 6,635 yards with 39 touchdowns and 28 touchdowns.

The Chargers also acquired DB ELIJAH MOLDEN from the Titans.  Gavino Borquez of USA TODAY:

The Chargers have added to their secondary.

According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, Los Angeles has agreed on a trade with the Titans to acquire defensive back Elijah Molden.

In return, Tennessee is expected to receive a late-round pick, Rapoport added.

Molden reunites with CB Kristian Fulton, who also played with the Titans before signing with the Chargers in March.

Over the past three seasons, Fulton has appeared in 33 games (16 starts), posting 140 tackles, eight passes defended, five tackles for loss, and two interceptions.

Selected in the third round of the 2021 NFL draft out of Washington, Molden finished with 153 tackles, 20 passes defended and five interceptions.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

Coach Zack Taylor proved to be unduly optimistic about the availability of WR Ja’MARR CHASE.  Ben Baby of ESPN.com:

Even the best of plans can be upended.

Less than 24 hours after Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor said Ja’Marr Chase will continue to practice this week, he did not participate Wednesday as the team continued its preparation for its season opener.

Speaking to reporters after Wednesday’s practice, Taylor indicated that he spoke too soon about the star wide receiver’s status.

“I think I probably put my foot in my mouth speaking too quickly,” Taylor said. “Again, this is a day-to-day situation. We’ll just keep seeing it as that.”

Chase, a three-time Pro Bowl selection, participated in lighter practices earlier in the week before the team held a more traditional game week practice Wednesday. Several minutes after the team started stretching, Chase walked into the team’s indoor practice bubble not in uniform. Chase, who did not participate in any of the team’s training practices, did not speak to reporters afterward.

Taylor confirmed that Chase remains healthy, something the wide receiver has maintained since the team’s mandatory minicamp in July, in which he also didn’t practice.

Chase currently has two years left on his rookie contract, including a fifth-year option worth $21.8 million in 2025.

Wednesday’s events also mitigate what Taylor said a day earlier regarding a confidence that Chase was going to play on Week 1. On Wednesday, Taylor said that from a functional standpoint, Chase could play in the opener against the New England Patriots on Sept. 8 if he didn’t practice this week.

But the sixth-year coach did not want to make any predictions on a timeline for Chase’s return.

“I think every day is a new day,” Taylor said Wednesday. “We’ll keep working through it. Not going to make predictions on what tomorrow brings.

PITTSBURGH

Mike Tomlin has announced that it will be QB RUSSELL WILSON taking on the Falcons next week.  Mike DeFabo of The Athletic on what part of Wilson’s legacy could be riding on how things go.

Russell Wilson can still remember the phone call that started it all on April 27, 2012.

The Seattle Seahawks had just handed Matt Flynn a three-year contract with the expectation he would stabilize their uncertain quarterback situation. But in the third round (pick No. 75), the Seahawks changed the course of their franchise’s history when they took a chance on an undersized passer from Wisconsin.

“Pete (Carroll) called me when I got drafted, and said, ‘Go ahead and go for this thing,’” Wilson recalled last week. “I said, ‘Coach, I don’t know any other way.’”

Wilson was coming off of an incredibly efficient season at Wisconsin, completing 72.8 percent of his passes for 3,175 yards and 33 touchdowns against just four interceptions. His dynamic mobility added a spark that propelled the Badgers to the Big Ten title and a second consecutive Rose Bowl appearance.

However, in a draft class that also featured Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, questions about Wilson persisted. Could a 5-foot-11 QB really make it in the NFL? Many wondered whether baseball would be a better path for the dual-threat, dual-sport athlete.

“When I was a rookie, I was a young African American kid from Richmond, Virginia,” Wilson said. “Everybody told me I was too short and couldn’t do it.”

A dozen years later — after nine Pro Bowl appearances, a Lombardi Trophy, a blockbuster trade and a messy breakup in Denver — Wilson once again received a career-altering phone call. This time it was Steelers defensive lineman Cameron Heyward with a recruiting pitch.

“It’s different from college, because I didn’t have to worry about NIL,” Heyward joked.

In 2023, the Steelers’ talented and highly compensated defense lugged an anemic offense quarterbacked by Kenny Pickett and coordinated by Matt Canada to the playoffs. The long-time defensive captain saw something in Wilson that gave him confidence he could help the team chase the Lombardi Trophy that has eluded Heyward.

“Leadership,” Heyward said. “He’s already won a Super Bowl and can provide knowledge there, but then also someone who’s also hungry chasing another one.”

From the moment he signed, Wilson always had the inside track to start Week 1, even if coach Mike Tomlin maintained through training camp and the preseason that this was a true competition with Justin Fields. On Wednesday, the coach ended any speculation when he announced Wilson as the starter for Week 1 in Atlanta.

As Wilson begins this next chapter of his NFL journey, the doubt that once caused him to fall in the draft has resurfaced — but in a different way following two turbulent seasons in Denver.

Soon after Wilson was traded to the Broncos, he said he wanted to play another 10 or 12 seasons and win another couple of Super Bowls. He considered the change of scenery another chapter in a story he hopes ends in Canton.

However, that experiment ended prematurely after just two years and an 11-19 record. Wilson ultimately watched the final two games from the bench after the Broncos gave up on him. Sean Payton, a well-respected offensive mind, and the Broncos chose to take on $85 million in dead money to move on from the player who was once seen as the future of their franchise.

Wilson blames a partially torn lat muscle in his throwing shoulder for his poor 2022 season in Denver, when he posted career lows in completion percentage (60.5) and passer rating (84.4). However, even when healthy, he has long relied heavily on creating plays outside of structure. With some of his mobility lost to age, he took a league-high 100 sacks over the last two seasons (something that’s already been an issue in Pittsburgh).

Around the league, the perception of Wilson has faded quickly. Four years ago, he was a unanimous Tier 1 quarterback alongside Patrick Mahomes in Mike Sando’s annual poll of 50 NFL coaches and executives, ranking ahead of Aaron Rodgers. After his disastrous 2022 season, he dropped from Tier 2 (No. 8) to Tier 3 (No. 16). Even after an improved 2023 season, Wilson slipped further in this year’s poll, falling to No. 22 and on the brink of Tier 4, which is reserved for unproven players or veterans “who ideally would not start 17 games.”

Asked about those doubting him, Wilson answered with his trademark unrelenting optimism.

“I think a lot of people doubt, and it’s nothing that I’m not used to. I’ve heard it for a long time,” he said. “I’ve just never been worried about what other people think. … God chose me for this, and he chose me to play this game. I’m one of 32 men in the world that get to do what I do. There’s 8 billion people in the world, and for whatever reason, I get to be one of these guys.”

But for how much longer will he be one of those 32? This is a make-or-break season for Wilson that will shape not only the Steelers’ ceiling but also the QB’s legacy.

On one hand, he brings a resume with Hall of Fame potential. He ranks fourth all-time in passer rating (100.0), 13th in passing touchdowns (334), 19th in passing yardage (43,653), 19th in completions (3,668), 20th in completion percentage (64.7) and 15th in wins (115). He still throws what assistant GM Andy Weidl described as a “majestic” deep ball and brings the intangible leadership traits Tomlin covets.

“This is not a guy who was hungry, meaning that can be satisfied,” Tomlin said in March, soon after the Steelers signed Wilson. “This is a guy that’s driven. You want to work with people who have that mindset.”

Steelers teammates say Wilson’s confidence and commitment — which some former teammates in Seattle and Denver have criticized as inauthentic — have rubbed off positively in Pittsburgh.

“He’s very confident in himself, and he tries to instill confidence in others,” receiver Calvin Austin III said. “That’s probably the biggest thing. Because to begin, you have to have belief in yourself, and that’s the message that he pushes to everyone around him, and you can tell that it’s definitely sticking with everybody.”

For everything he accomplished early in his career, nothing is guaranteed for Wilson at this stage.

He agreed to a one-year deal in Pittsburgh, suggesting the league — which has a shortage of quality QBs — wasn’t enamored by his past two seasons. For the first time in his NFL career, he will enter a season with no money guaranteed in the following year. The Steelers also traded for Fields after Wilson’s signing, making it fair to wonder whether the team wanted an alternative in the event things don’t pan out as planned.

Wilson, who says he wants to play another five to seven seasons, has the opportunity in Pittsburgh to prove his time in Denver was a blip on the radar, not Father Time knocking. If he can recapture some of the magic from his days in Seattle — when he was surrounded by a talented defense and a reliable running game, like he is now with the Steelers — it could reshape the way the league sees that two-year stint. Maybe it was the dysfunction around Wilson — not the quarterback himself — that sullied his time in Denver?

Asked Wednesday if he feels he has something to prove after two years with the Broncos, Wilson replied, “I feel like that every day. You try to prove yourself, just who you are, how you go about it. … I’m not focused on anything old, or anything ahead. I’m just focused on right now and the moment.”

If Wilson thrives in Pittsburgh, he’ll have options next offseason as a free agent, and perhaps a shot to play those half dozen more seasons he desires. Kirk Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million deal with $100 million guaranteed with the Falcons this spring, months before his 36th birthday and while recovering from a torn Achilles. Baker Mayfield garnered a three-year, $100 million deal with the Bucs after a resurgent season in Tampa.

But Wilson will have to prove it. The Steelers, who have a long-standing policy of not negotiating contracts in-season, have not been sold enough yet to offer Wilson an extension before Week 1. They will let the season play out, Weidl said, before deciding whether they’ll extend Wilson or Fields, who is also in the final year of his contract.

When Wilson was a rookie, he often said, “Experience is only necessary for those who are unqualified.” At 35, he’s evolved that mantra: “Age is only necessary for those who are unqualified.”

“I feel the fountain of youth,” Wilson said in May. “I feel revived in every way — mentally, emotionally, spiritually. I feel confident. I think that at some point, you have to know who you are as a player, as a man, as a competitor, as someone who’s fortunate to play this game. I trust it.

“I felt really good last year playing. I felt really confident, in the midst of everything. I think now I have all that confidence times 10.”

But if that confidence doesn’t lead to results? This could be his last chance.

There’s no assurance he’ll even be the Steelers’ starter all season. Fields is waiting in the wings and worked extensively with the first-team offense while Wilson’s calf injury sidelined him in training camp and the preseason. The Steelers invested so little in Wilson that they would lose nothing by pivoting midseason.

If that happens, or if Wilson has an underwhelming season, who else would want him as a starter? And would Wilson — who has averaged $30.3 million in annual earnings over the last 10 years — even entertain the possibility of being a backup? Would he just call it a career, several seasons and a few Super Bowl rings shy of his stated goals?

It’s impossible to know how this will unfold. But in a world full of doubt, this is one thing you can count on: This season, good or bad, will shape the backstretch and the final image of Wilson’s career.

“In terms of legacy, the reason why I came here is I want to win another Super Bowl or two, and that’s what we got to do,” Wilson said. “That’s our plan. That’s our strategy. That’s our mission every day. And I think that’s what really matters.”

This from Mike Florio on what he thinks Tomlin is thinking:

Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson parlayed “pole position” into the starting job. The race apparently was closer than expected, with Justin Fields performing well enough in preseason games and practice to make coach Mike Tomlin strategize about his options.

Ultimately, Wilson makes sense, for now. He has the experience. He has thrived on a roster with a strong defense and a good running game. He doesn’t have to be Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, something Wilson might have wanted to become in Denver. By playing within the broader structure of a team that made the playoffs last year without consistently competent quarterback play, Wilson could thrive again.

He doesn’t need to make big plays on a regular basis. He just needs to extend drives with a good decision and a solid throw, like he did on third and 11 in Detroit, in front of Lions fans who sounded as loud as they were in the playoffs. He doesn’t need to do it all the time; he needs to do it sufficiently often to allow the Steelers to eventually end a given game with more points scored than the opponent.

As to the opponents, the first half of the schedule gives Wilson a chance to earn the ability to keep starting down the stretch. With three of the first six games against AFC West opponents — teams he knows better than Fields does, especially the Broncos in Week 2 — Wilson becomes the safer and more sensible choice. And with three prime-time games landing between Week 5 and Week 8 (Cowboys, Jets, at Giants), the Steelers will enter their bye with eight games played.

If they go 3-5 or worse, the weekend off gives them a chance to prepare Fields for the final nine games, which include (starting in Week 11) their six annual showdowns within the AFC North. And if the Fields package (if that’s what the Steelers use from time to time) is effective, that will give Tomlin more reason to think a shift to the more shifty Fields will make sense after Week 8.

Wilson has the higher floor. While the game seems less exciting with Fields playing quarterback, the offense could be more steady with Wilson. And the Steelers could end up at 4-4 or better at the break. If so, Wilson stays for the season-ending, seven-game murderer’s row of Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Cincinnati, Cleveland, at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, Kansas City, and Cincinnati.

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. He knows that there will be rough spots, and he knows how to recover from them. If the first half of the season has more struggles than successes, Fields will be ready to go, in theory.

If Wilson can parlay the Pittsburgh defense and running game into more wins than losses (or at least as many wins as losses) through eight games, Wilson will be well positioned to lead the team into the teeth of the schedule.

Fields might not like it for now, but the season is long. Chances are he’ll get a chance, in something more than spot duty or gadget plays. The best-case scenario would be for Wilson to turn the clock back to his pre-Denver days and tap into his experience and remaining skills to take the Steelers farther than they’ve been since Father Time started to slow Ben Roethsliberger down. The worst-case for Wilson could become the best-case for Fields, giving Pittsburgh what could be, as of Week 10, a much needed jolt for yet another effort to stay on the right side of .500 and crash the AFC playoff party.

Whether it’s Wilson or Fields if/when the postseason arrives for Pittsburgh, they’ll be better positioned than they’ve been in years to advance beyond the wild-card round. And if/when they get their first playoff win since 2017, who knows what might happen next?

The season isn’t just a marathon. It’s a triathlon. And the Steelers have two options to help them finish in the top seven spots among 16 AFC teams. The safer and smarter choice is to give Wilson the first crack. If it’s not going well, they’ll have a far better option than Mason Rudolph or Mitchell Trubisky to turn things around during the stretch where each regular-season game will come with playoff intensity.

We’ll be curious to see if Tomlin and OC Arthur Smith have some splash plays for Fields to participate in, much as Taysom Hill used to do for the Saints in the later days of Drew Brees.

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

GM Chris Ballard defends his tenure with the Colts.  Tom Dierberger of SI.com:

The 2024 NFL season marks the eighth campaign Chris Ballard has served as the Indianapolis Colts’ general manager.

The Colts, a longtime NFL powerhouse in the first decade-plus of this century, have won just one playoff game and have yet to claim an AFC South division title under his watch. Ballard is aware of the franchise’s shortcomings—and addressed them with a rather bold quote about his method on Wednesday.

“I’ve always had a strong belief in myself and those around me. Strong belief in what we do,” Ballard told reporters [via The Athletic]. “… The last three years, not making the playoffs, it’s a disappointment. I’m not gonna sit here and say it wasn’t, but I still have a very strong belief in what we’re doing, how we’re doing it and how we’re gonna get there. And that will not waver. Either you believe for something or you believe nothing. Like it’s easy to vacillate and go with what the world wants you to do, but you need to believe in something or you don’t. It’s what we believe.

“If it gets me fired, so be it.”

Ballard has faced no shortage of obstacles since arriving in Indianapolis in 2017. When he accepted the position, he had one of the best quarterbacks in all of football, Andrew Luck, entering the prime of his career. But Luck missed the entire 2017 campaign, and after returning and playing all 16 games in ’18, Luck surprisingly retired the following summer.

“If you just kind of look through the first few years, we made the playoffs two of the first four, had to overcome a quarterback retiring on us, still found a way,” Ballard said. “I thought our ’20 team was excellent. We just lost a tough game to Buffalo that ended up being a really good team. And I thought in ’21 was another really good football team, and it all kind of fell apart.”

The Colts enter the 2024 campaign with the hopes that they finally found their franchise quarterback in Anthony Richardson, who they drafted with the No. 4 pick last April.

After seven unfruitful seasons, Ballard’s job depends on Richardson’s success—and the general manager knows it.

Ultimately, Ballard will be judged on taking Richardson with the fourth overall pick and hiring Shane Steichen to coach him.  So far, so good.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Coach Sean McDermott is going to delegate defensive playcalling to new DC Bobby Babich – at least to start the season.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bills head coach Sean McDermott has made a decision about who will call the team’s defensive plays this year.

McDermott had that responsibility last year, but he left things open after promoting Bobby Babich to defensive coordinator earlier this year. That remained the case through the summer, but the season opener is now a little more than a week away and McDermott has settled on Babich being the voice this time around.

“What I like about Bobby is our experience together and the wisdom he has, both as a secondary coach and a linebacker coach,” McDermott told Ryan O’Halloran of the Buffalo News. “I just feel like he’s a growth-minded individual and coach, and that’s the right approach.”

The Bills parted ways with a number of players who played prominent roles on their run of division champions this offseason and they hope the rejiggered roster can continue to have the same kind of success. The move to Babich is another significant change and Week One’s matchup with the Cardinals is the first chance to see how it is all coming together.

NEW ENGLAND

Coach Jerod Mayo opts to postpone the inevitable debut of QB DRAKE MAYE.  It will be QB JACOBY BRISSETT at the helm against Cincinnati next week.  Frank Schwab ofYahooSports.com thinks it is “prudent.”:

New England Patriots fans will have to wait to see Drake Maye start games.

Maye, the third overall pick of the NFL Draft, will sit and watch Jacoby Brissett, at least to start the season. In a team meeting Thursday morning, head coach Jerod Mayo named Brissett their Week 1 starter, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. New England starts the season at the Cincinnati Bengals.

The decision was more complicated than picking the best quarterback. Patriots coach Jerod Mayo admitted Maye outplayed Brissett in the preseason. New England has resisted elevating Maye to QB1, likely because of a poor situation around the quarterback.

Brissett, the veteran, gets to start the season while Maye waits.

Jacoby Brissett gets the nod

If it was a true competition, Maye might have won it. He was clearly the better player in the preseason.

Maye completed 21-of-32 passes in the preseason for 192 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions and a 86.9 passer rating. Brissett went 5 for 14 for 36 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and a 14.6 passer rating.

The Patriots’ plan since the NFL Draft was seemingly to start Brissett and protect Maye from being thrown right into the lineup, but the gap between them over the preseason was impossible to ignore.

“What I will say, this is a true competition, and I would say at this current point, Drake has outplayed Jacoby,” Mayo told WEEI one day after the final preseason game.

But the Patriots had to keep the big picture in mind. The Patriots have one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. They don’t have a great receiving corps, though they did draft a couple of exciting young receivers. Many good quarterback prospects have been ruined by being thrown into bad situations. The Patriots obviously want to be careful with Maye’s development.

Brissett is entering his ninth season and has started 48 games. He’s not the permanent answer at quarterback, but New England hopes he looks better than he has in the preseason.

Drake Maye waits his turn

The good news for the Patriots is Maye had some exciting moments in the preseason. He showed off his playmaking ability, as a passer and a runner.

The Patriots got offers to trade down from the third overall pick of the NFL Draft and resisted, grabbing Maye and hopefully solving a quarterback issue they’ve had since moving on from Tom Brady. They shouldn’t have any regrets about taking Maye.

They’re just not ready to start him from the first game on. The Patriots are expected to have a poor season and have a tough schedule, so if Brissett continues to struggle like he did in the preseason, New England will have to consider when to make the change to Maye. His long-term development will be the priority.

For now, Brissett gets the call. It’s not exciting, but it’s the prudent move.

Here is Mayo on the move:

Mayo said that Brissett will be our starting quarterback “this season” and he quickly fielded a question about whether that means the team plans to sit first-round pick Drake Maye for his entire rookie year. Mayo said that he wasn’t going to put a timeline on any future quarterback moves before saying Brissett will have the job as long as he does it to the team’s satisfaction.

“I don’t want to get into hypotheticals,” Mayo said. “We can’t go into the season saying ‘He’s going to go ‘X’ amount of weeks. Look — as long as Jacoby is going out there performing the way we all have confidence in him doing, he’ll be our quarterback this season.”

THIS AND THAT

SUPER BOWL LONG SHOTS

Josh Edwards of CBSSports.com notes there are seven teams deemed to be 100-to-1 or more to win the Super Bowl.  He opines on what he believes are their best outcomes (hint – its not winning the SB for any of them):

A year ago at this time, there were four NFL teams with +10000 odds or worse to win the Super Bowl. There are currently seven. A smaller pool of teams viewed as legitimate Super Bowl contenders this year may exist, but not all hope is lost for those teams.  

Here is the best possible outcome for several teams least likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy (odds via SportsLine consensus): 

Arizona Cardinals (+12500)

Arizona has finished within the basement of the NFC West four of the last six years. But, for the first time since winning the division in 2015, there are reasons to believe positive change could be occurring under the direction of second-year coach Jonathan Gannon. The smart strategy in roster construction would be to continue at a gradual pace rather than overextending themselves for short-term gain. They are still at a talent deficit, but the hope is that they found a handful of starters with eight picks in the top 104 overall of the 2024 NFL Draft.

If Kyler Murray can continue showcasing his talents as the franchise quarterback and the team can identify foundational pieces, then fans should be able to reflect back on this season in an optimistic manner.

New York Giants (+15000)

There were a few different paths that were considered for the Giants. The most important result is that New York gains clarity on Daniel Jones and its quarterback conundrum. As someone who believes the franchise should expect more from the position, it may be in the best interest of the organization to walk away from this season with conviction that Jones is not the franchise quarterback and be in a position to draft high in 2025. Jones has a manageable $22.2 million dead salary cap hit next season.

With that being said, general manager Joe Schoen has done a good job taking calculated risks to add talent to the roster for the upcoming season. Wide receiver Malik Nabers and edge rusher Brian Burns are building blocks on each side of the ball.

Tennessee Titans (+15000)

Tennessee had a lot of needs entering the offseason. Rather than methodically chipping away at the stone blocking the entrance, they threw dynamite at the base and blew it up by signing top dollar wide receiver Calvin Ridley and trading for top dollar cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and disgruntled Rams star linebacker Ernest Jones IV; other additions include left tackle draft selection JC Latham and running back Tony Pollard. The Titans accelerated expectations for second-year quarterback Will Levis and the offseason investment must pay off.

The best-case scenario is that coach Brian Callahan proves himself to be an adaptable, forward-thinking offensive play-caller and Levis reaches his full potential.

Washington Commanders (+1500)

Washington had six draft selections in the top 100 overall, including No. 2 overall selection Jayden Daniels. The Commanders have a lot of questions entering the season so expecting them to win the majority of their games is likely farfetched.

The best outcome is similar to the transformation that Detroit has undergone since coach Dan Campbell arrived, but on a greater scale. The Lions finished last in the NFC North in Campbell’s first season. Washington coach Dan Quinn can help cultivate a winning culture. If Daniels is what the league believes him to be, then seeing glimpses of that this season, while setting the franchise up to take a bigger step forward next year, is the best outcome. Do not be surprised if veteran defensive tackle Jonathan Allen is moved at the trade deadline to create more playing time for rookie second-round selection Jer’Zhan Newton while also giving the franchise more ammunition in next year’s draft.

Carolina Panthers (+20000)

Carolina’s entire offseason strategy was constructed on a desire to support former No. 1 overall selection Bryce Young. Young struggled mightily last season and a less than desirable supporting cast was a contributing factor. The Panthers first traded cornerback Donte Jackson for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, then signed offensive guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, and finally drafted wide receiver Xavier Legette, running back Jonathon Brooks and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders with three of their first four selections. Coach Dave Canales has a background creating an environment that allowed quarterbacks, such as Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson, to overcome physical limitations.

The best outcome is that Young is able to regain his confidence and the Panthers’ offseason investments lead to a feasibly sustainable plan at quarterback.

Denver Broncos (+25000)

Denver has drafted the player that they believe to be its franchise quarterback, Bo Nix. Accountability is important, so I will be the first to admit, I considered Nix to be a reach in the top half of the first round. However, coach Sean Payton’s plan for him is perfect and the collaboration has been impressive in the preseason. Questions about the ceiling of the offense persist, but they can be competitive if they continue at this trajectory. Feeling confident in the future of the union between Payton and Nix is the best possible outcome from the season. Other holes on the roster need to be patched, however. What is the plan at wide receiver? It has felt as though Courtland Sutton has been available for trade each of the past three years.

New England Patriots (+27500)

Fans are likely anxious to throw No. 3 overall selection Drake Maye onto the field to see if he has what it takes to return the franchise to glory. However, conservation is the more important approach given the lingering offensive line and skill talent questions. The supporting cast is not good enough for Maye to thrive and the coaches do not want to destroy his confidence for minimal short-term gain.

The best outcome for New England is veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett plays most of the season and turns it over to Maye late, just so he can get his feet wet and have some tape to study during the offseason. Then, spend next offseason acquiring the necessary talent to surround Maye, similar to what Carolina and Tennessee have done to support their young quarterbacks.

It doesn’t sound like Edwards thinks any of the seven can make the playoffs.

We would think Denver, Washington and Tennessee all might have a chance if their young QBs can break out like C.J. Stroud did last year for a Houston team that had to be on this list in 2023.  And, we are on record as thinking Arizona might be sneaky good in 2024 if the apparent metamorphosis of QB KYLER MURRAY into a respected leader and cool game manager proves true.

We would also think the “best possible outcome” for the Patriots would be more than QB DRAKE MAYE getting his feet wet.  Might be the most likely, especially with the conservative approach taken by rookie coach Jerod Mayo.  But why can’t may get a full and productive season in like the Commanders, Bears and Broncos are planning for their rookie QBs?

IF OWNER, BRADY TO BE RESTRICTED IN TV PREP

Should Tom Brady be approved as a part owner of the Raiders, the NFL will cripple his ability to do his job as a FOX analyst.  Seth Wickersham of ESPN.com with the details of restrictions the NFL is ready to impose.

If Tom Brady is approved as a partial owner of the Las Vegas Raiders, he will be forced to abide by unique and severe restrictions in his dual role as a Fox broadcaster, according to a presentation given to team owners at Tuesday’s NFL meetings in Minneapolis.

The league confirmed to ESPN that among the restrictions, Brady would not be permitted to be in another team’s facility, would not be permitted to witness practice and would not be permitted to attend broadcast production meetings, either in person or virtually. The lack of access to coaches and players before games could be the most severe restriction; those meetings, at which a broadcast crew meets with the matchup’s head coaches and key players, are often a lifeblood of insight for the telecast.

These rules, which the league presented to owners Tuesday on a slide titled “Brady — Broadcast Restrictions,” potentially would affect only the seven-time Super Bowl champion and would not apply to other members of Fox crews. A league source told ESPN that owners had raised several questions about conflicts of interest in Brady’s potential role.

Aside from the access restrictions, Brady — if he were to become a limited partner with the Raiders — would be subject to other applicable league policies common to other owners.

• He would be prohibited from publicly criticizing game officials and other clubs. While Brady could, in theory, state that he disagrees with a call on air, he would be subject to fines or even a suspension if he went too far.

• He would be subject to the league’s gambling policy.

• He would be subject to the league’s anti-tampering policies. He would be permitted only “strictly social communication with members of other clubs,” according to the slide that the league presented.

There is a precedent for these rules, league spokesman Brian McCarthy told ESPN. In 2017, Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen called some games for Fox, including one against the Minnesota Vikings. Because the Vikings were an upcoming opponent of the Panthers, Olsen wasn’t given usual broadcast crew access. Olsen has worked on Fox’s top broadcast team since retirement. Brady is due to replace him on that crew this year.

Representatives for Fox and the Raiders didn’t respond to ESPN’s requests for comments.

These rules might further complicate Brady’s bid to become a limited partner of the Raiders. The deal still has not been finalized, more than a year after ESPN first reported he was in advanced discussions to be a partial owner and, shortly after, that he had agreed to buy a stake in the team.

Owners and league executives have had questions about the selling price of his proposed 10% stake — the Washington Post reported in March that the discounted rate that Brady was due to receive concerned owners — and about the conflicts of interest as a color analyst on a broadcast partner’s top television team.

His bid has been stuck in the league’s finance committee. If it clears the committee, Brady’s ownership stake must be approved by at least 24 of 32 owners.

Before what turned out to be Brady’s final NFL season in 2022, the all-time great agreed to a 10-year, $375 million contract to join Fox as an analyst once his playing career was over. He retired in 2023 and agreed to begin at Fox for the 2024 season.

So, everyone else on his crew can go to the production meeting and presumably ask questions requested by Brady.  Can they make a tape and play it for him?  Can he chat with players and coaches on the sideline before the game, another valuable venue for broadcast information?  What about an personal phone call or text to an old acquaintance away from the formal “production meeting?”  Can he exchange emails?  What about letters through the US Mail?

Mike Florio opines:

At this point, Brady and Fox should want it to be delayed until after the 2024 season. Why have Brady’s first year complicated by a potential approval of the transaction in October, or December?

More broadly, Brady should pick a lane here. Be an owner or be a broadcaster. Don’t be both. Because you can’t be an owner and do the job properly as a broadcaster.

To try to both, frankly, is more than a little selfish.

And, even more frankly, these restrictions might be the NFL’s way to send that much-needed message to Brady.