AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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Forbes is out with their ranking of each NFL team’s value and the Cowboys are worth three times as much as the Bills:
Disregard the NFL’s 20% drop in revenue during the pandemic-impacted 2020 season, to an average of $381 million per team. Forget that operating income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) plummeted to an average of $7.1 million a team, from $109 million the previous season. The fact is, money came raining down on the NFL over the past year, pushing the value of the average team up 14%, to $3.48 billion, the biggest gain in five years.
In March, the NFL signed $111.8 billion in media rights deals ($112.6 billion including the ESPN payment for extending Monday Night Football a year through 2022 and money received from broadcasters for additional regular-season and playoff games); that represented an 82% average annual increase over the current deals. As a result, the national media rights payout to each of the league’s 32 teams is going to increase from $220 million this season to $377 million in 2032. And that’s not even counting the Sunday Ticket deal with DirecTV, worth an average of $1.5 billion annually through 2022.
Then there’s the NFL’s venture capital arm—32 Equity—which has also been scoring. Each NFL team kicked in $1 million to launch 32 Equity in 2013 and has since put in another $3 million or so. Profits from 32 Equity have been reinvested rather than distributed to the teams, but the portfolio has generated average annual returns in excess of 30% and is now worth well over $100 million per team, according to team executives who requested anonymity. Among 32 Equity’s investments: Fanatics (sports merchandise), Skillz (mobile gaming), Genius Sports (sports data and technology), Clear (biometric identify verification), Hyperice (athlete recovery devices), Sportradar (sports data and technology), On Location (luxury event hospitality) and Mythical Games (gaming technology studio).
One reason the NFL’s investments shine is that its brand and content allow the league to secure favorable investment deals, akin to what Amazon does with its vendors. For example, when Genius Sports became the official betting data source for the NFL in April, it agreed to issue up to 22.5 million warrants in addition to the cash it paid the league, entitling the NFL to purchase one ordinary share of Genius for $0.01 each. The warrants will be subject to vesting over the six-year term of the licensing agreement, with the first 11.25 million warrants to be vested immediately upon issuance.
The value of the league’s investments stand out in the Green Bay Packers’ financial statements. For the 2020 season, the team reported an operating loss (including depreciation) of $38.8 million but net income of $60.7 million thanks to $120 million in mostly unrealized investment gains.
League insiders tell Forbes that the NFL is on the verge of starting something even bigger, sort of a 32 Equity writ large—the formation of a new company in which the league will own a majority stake but will be funded by outside investors that could include companies like SoftBank and sovereign wealth funds. Other partners could potentially include existing media partners or tech companies like Apple and Twitter. The NFL’s contribution to this new company would be assets that could become much more valuable with partners with expertise in distribution and content creation. To kick things off, the league could potentially put in its NFL Films library, the NFL Network and the league’s deals with DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars Entertainment.
“Lots of league assets could be leveraged up with outside money,” one team owner tells Forbes. The NFL Network, for example, generates between $1.5 billion and $2 billion in annual revenue, yet it is carried on the league’s books at zero.
All of this will further drive up team values, of course, further limiting the number of people who can afford to buy an NFL team. To make it easier for new investors to enter the owners’ club, the NFL recently and very quietly doubled the debt limit for buyers of teams to $1 billion, from $500 million.
The Dallas Cowboys, worth $6.5 billion, top our ranking for the 15th consecutive year. The Cowboys generate the most revenue ($800 million) and operating income ($250 million) in the league by a mile. Owner Jerry Jones is the league’s consummate salesman, and the team’s more than $200 million in combined sponsorship and advertising revenue is easily tops in the NFL. But the biggest one-year increase in value belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are up 29% and whose brand has been reborn with last season’s Super Bowl run. The Bucs have seen a surge in season-ticket and merchandise sales since the arrival of Tom Brady in March 2020 and pushed through significant ticket-price increases for the 2021 season.
Here is the ranking of the NFL’s 32 teams by their enterprise value.
1. Dallas Cowboys
Value: $6.5 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Jerry Jones
Operating Income: $280.4 million
2. New England Patriots
Value: $5 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Robert Kraft
Operating Income: $142.4 million
3. New York Giants
Value: $4.85 billion
One-Year Change: 13%
Owners: John Mara, Steven Tisch
Operating Income: –$12.5 million
4. Los Angeles Rams
Value: $4.8 billion
One-Year Change: 20%
Owner: Stanley Kroenke
Operating Income: $37.2 million
5. Washington Football Team
Value: $4.2 billion
One-Year Change: 20%
Owner: Daniel Snyder
Operating Income: $25 million
6. San Francisco 49ers
Value: $4.175 billion
One-Year Change: 10%
Owners: Denise DeBartolo York, John York
Operating Income: –$45.4 million
7. Chicago Bears
Value: $4.075 billion
One-Year Change: 16%
Owner: McCaskey family
Operating Income: –$3.6 million
8. New York Jets
Value: $4.05 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Johnson family
Operating Income: $8.4 million
9. Philadelphia Eagles
Value: $3.8 billion
One-Year Change: 12%
Owner: Jeffrey Lurie
Operating Income: –$25.9 million
10. Denver Broncos
Value: $3.75 billion
One-Year Change: 17%
Owner: Pat Bowlen Trust
Operating Income: $8.2 million
11. Houston Texans
Value: $3.7 billion
One-Year Change: 12%
Owner: Janice McNair
Operating Income: –$20.2 million
12. Seattle Seahawks
Value: $3.5 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Paul G. Allen Trust
Operating Income: –$20.8 million
13. Green Bay Packers
Value: $3.475 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owners: Shareholders
Operating Income: –$33.5 million
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
Value: $3.43 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owners: Daniel Rooney Trust, Arthur Rooney II
Operating Income: $24.5 million
15. Miami Dolphins
Value: $3.42 billion
One-Year Change: 18%
Owner: Stephen Ross
Operating Income: $7.9 million
16. Las Vegas Raiders
Value: $3.415 billion
One-Year Change: 10%
Owner: Mark Davis
Operating Income: –$5.1 million
17. Baltimore Ravens
Value: $3.4 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Stephen Bisciotti
Operating Income: –$20.7 million
18. Minnesota Vikings
Value: $3.35 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Zygmunt Wilf
Operating Income: –$9.7 million
19. Indianapolis Colts
Value: $3.25 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: James Irsay
Operating Income: –$20 million
20. Atlanta Falcons
Value: $3.2 billion
One-Year Change: 11%
Owner: Arthur Blank
Operating Income: –$4 million
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Value: $2.94 billion
One-Year Change: 29%
Owner: Glazer family
Operating Income: $1.9 million
22. Kansas City Chiefs
Value: $2.93 billion
One-Year Change: 17%
Owner: Hunt family
Operating Income: $9 million
23. Los Angeles Chargers
Value: $2.92 billion
One-Year Change: 12%
Owner: Dean Spanos
Operating Income: –$48.7 million
24. Carolina Panthers
Value: $2.91 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: David Tepper
Operating Income: –$22 million
25. New Orleans Saints
Value: $2.825 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Gayle Benson
Operating Income: –$15.7 million
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
Value: $2.8 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Shahid Khan
Operating Income: $68.8 million
27. Arizona Cardinals
Value: $2.65 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Michael Bidwill
Operating Income: –$16.2 million
28. Tennessee Titans
Value: $2.625 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Amy Adams Strunk
Operating Income: –$12 million
29. Cleveland Browns
Value: $2.6 billion
One-Year Change: 11%
Owners: Dee and Jimmy Haslam
Operating Income: $5.7 million
30. Detroit Lions
Value: $2.4 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Ford family
Operating Income: –$22.2 million
31. Cincinnati Bengals
Value: $2.275 billion
One-Year Change: 14%
Owner: Michael Brown
Operating Income: –$16.6 million
32. Buffalo Bills
Value: $2.27 billion
One-Year Change: 11%
Owners: Terry and Kim Pegula
Operating Income: –$17.6 million
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NFC NORTH
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CHICAGO
TE JIMMY GRAHAM has allowed himself to be vaccinated, but he doesn’t feel good about it. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
The NFL Players Association has made clear that it will fight any attempt by the NFL to force players to get vaccinated. But the NFLPA is advocating forcing vaccinated players to get tested for COVID-19 more frequently, and Bears tight end Jimmy Graham appears to be upset with his union over the latest development.
Graham posted the NFLPA’s memo advocating more frequent mandatory testing of vaccinated players on Twitter, and Graham indicated that he is not on board.
“Was basically forced into getting the vaccine. Now I’m just confused. @NFLPA,” Graham wrote.
Graham did the right thing by getting the vaccine, whether he felt “basically forced” into it or not. But he’s surely not the only player who’s now wondering why his union is advocating that management force him to get tested more frequently, after he already did the responsible thing and got the COVID-19 vaccine.
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GREEN BAY
QB AARON RODGERS communicated with QB JORDAN LOVE, even as he was keeping his intentions close to the vest. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
Aaron Rodgers knows precisely what Jordan Love went through this offseason, with the young signal-caller having to answer questions about a future over which he had little control.
Rodgers spent three years behind Brett Favre to start his career after being drafted in the first round. His career began with a disgruntled Farve hemming-and-hawing about his future in Green Bay, then ultimately returning and sending Rodgers back to the bench.
So, this offseason, knowing what his disagreement with the Packers organization would mean for Love, Rodgers kept the second-year QB in the loop throughout the process.
“And then I just reached out; I reached out a number of times [to] check on him [and] see how he’s doing,” Rodgers said Wednesday, via Rob Demovsky of ESPN. “I didn’t hold things from him. I let him know where I was at mentally and what I was thinking about. And hopefully he appreciated that.
“I just felt that’s what I would want in that situation, just to hear from the guy. And also, there’s a love and an appreciation and a friendship there, just like it was with me and Brett. So I wanted to make sure I checked in with him and let him know I was thinking about him.”
Knowing the pressure Love would feel, Rodgers wanted to ensure the young QB didn’t think his issue with the organization was personal towards Love.
“I have a lot of respect and love for Jordan, and I understand it’s got to be tough what he went through,” Rodgers said. “I went through it for two years in the offseason, going in ’06 and ’07, I was the guy the entire offseason, going through quarterback school, going through most of the OTAs, taking all the reps, and then here comes Favrey coming back — and obviously I’m back on the bench. Thankfully I went through that, and I can understand a little bit about what he’s going through, so I just try to keep that in mind the entire time.”
It appears that Rodgers will not be getting his dreamed off full-time gig as host of “Jeopardy!” A committee that included executive producer Mike Richards is close to choosing Mike Richards as the permanent replacement for Alex Trebek. TMZ.com:
Jeopardy!” has finally settled on a new permanent host to take over for the late Alex Trebek … and no, it’s not Aaron Rodgers, it’s not LeVar Burton, and it’s not Anderson Cooper.
Executive producer Mike Richards is expected to take the reins of the famous game show that was hosted by Trebek for 36 years … according to Variety. Richards is reportedly in advanced negotiations with Sony Pictures Television to become the host of “Jeopardy!” and launch a new era.
It’s super interesting … the entire season was all about big celebs vying for the dream job … Mayim Bialik, Katie Couric, George Stephanopoulos and more. But, in the end, they went in-house. It’s not like Mike Richards chose himself — Sony bigwigs did that. But, well, interesting.
Fact is … Richards guest-hosted the show in February and crushed it. He’s hosted game shows before … “Divided” and “The Pyramid” for Sony Pictures’ GSN cabler. He’s also produced more than 4,000 hours of game shows.
Some people online are upset LaVar didn’t get the nod. Ya can’t please everyone, but Richards is a solid choice.
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MINNESOTA
QB KIRK COUSINS is out of COVID jail. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
The QBs are back in the building.
The Vikings announced on Thursday morning that they’ve officially activated quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Nate Stanley off the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Both Cousins and Stanley were considered high-risk close contacts of fellow QB Kellen Mond, who tested positive for the virus. Mond is not vaccinated, so he’ll continue to be out for at least 10 days.
Jake Browning was the only Minnesota quarterback not to land on the COVID-19 list and took every snap in a practice over the weekend. The Vikings also signed Case Cookus to lighten the load at QB.
Head coach Mike Zimmer has been publicly frustrated by his team’s rate of vaccination, but said on Wednesday that he was no longer going to address the subject.
The Vikings also announced that that kicker Riley Patterson has passed his physical and been removed from the physically unable to perform list. An undrafted rookie out of Memphis, Patterson is expected to compete with Greg Joseph to be Minnesota’s kicker.
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NFC EAST
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PHILADELPHIA
As the rumors about QB DESHAUN WATSON swirled, rookie coach Nick Sirianni would not confirm that QB JALEN HURTS is the starter from among those QBs in camp. Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com:
At the moment, the only quarterbacks on the Philadelphia Eagles’ roster for the 2021 season are Jalen Hurts, Joe Flacco, and Nick Mullens. Hurts, a second-round pick in 2020 who supplanted Carson Wentz in the starting role last season, has been the presumptive starter throughout the offseason — but new head coach Nick Sirianni has been reluctant to confirm that starting Hurts is the team’s plan.
On Thursday, Sirianni again passed on the opportunity to name Hurts the team’s starter. “There’s no rush,” Sirianni said, per Mike Kaye of NJ Advance Media. “We’re just not there yet.”
Sirianni did note that he thinks Hurts is “doing a great job of running the offense and learning the offense,” but it’s curious that the Eagles have yet to commit to him, given the other options available to them.
The reluctance comes amid persistent rumors that the Eagles are engaged with the Houston Texans on a trade for Deshaun Watson — who surprisingly showed up to training camp but has been absent from recent practices, requested a trade earlier this offseason, and has been sued by upwards of 20 women in sexual misconduct cases, several of which have also resulted in criminal complaints.
Given the uncertainty surrounding Watson’s availability to play both this season and beyond, it’s likely that the Eagles are trying to land him at a discounted price. Whether they (or any other team) should be engaging in trade talks for a player in Watson’s legal position at all is, of course, a pertinent question, but it appears as though those talks are happening. In that context, Sirianni and the rest of the organization’s hesitance on the question of Hurts’ status as the starter becomes much more interesting.
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WASHINGTON
No remnants of the Washington Football Team’s heritage will be allowed at FedExField in 2021. Nicki Jhabvala of the Washington Post:
When the Washington Football Team welcomes fans back to FedEx Field this season, Native American-inspired headdresses and face paint will be prohibited.
The team, which issued its 2021 stadium policies and protocols Wednesday, announced in the spring that it intends to be at full capacity for games this year, after a 2020 season in which Washington’s home games were played either without fans or with very few fans in attendance because of the coronavirus pandemic.
But the last time FedEx Field was open to all fans, the team had a different name. As part of its rebranding, the team has made a clean break from Native American imagery and has even ruled out Warriors as a candidate for its new name, which is set to be revealed in early 2022.
“We recognize that not everyone is in favor of this change,” team president Jason Wright said in July. “And even the Native American community offers a range of opinions about both our past and path forward. But in these moments, it is important to prioritize the views of those who have been hurt by our historical use of Native American language, iconography and imagery. …
“We will choose an identity that unequivocally departs from any use of or approximate linkage to Native American imagery.”
As part of its updated protocols, the team is also recommending but not mandating the use of face masks inside the stadium for unvaccinated guests.
We wonder what will happen if longtime Washington fans show up at road games attired in a manner that the current team management does not approve.
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
The Buccaneers have made DC Todd Bowles the highest-paid assistant in the NFL. Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are giving Todd Bowles a new three-year contract that keeps him as the NFL’s highest-paid defensive coordinator, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Bowles had one year left on his current deal, but this contract replaces that and doesn’t preclude him from taking another head-coaching job. In January, Bowles interviewed for head-coaching positions with the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons. He was also scheduled to interview with the Detroit Lions but canceled the interview upon learning the Lions “had their mind made up” about Dan Campbell.
He was the head coach of the New York Jets for four seasons, from 2015 to 2018, before joining Bruce Arians’ staff with the Buccaneers in 2019.
Bowles, 57, has a long history with Arians, having also served as the defensive coordinator with the Arizona Cardinals on Arians’ staffs in 2013 and 2014. Their connection goes back to Bowles playing defensive back for Arians at Temple in the mid-1980s.
“I think it starts with individual teaching,” Arians said of Bowles. “How do they study film? He’ll bring them in at 5:30 in the morning individually, or maybe two or three, to teach them how to watch film. His expertise in defense is outstanding. He knows everything, he’s seen everything, he’s done everything.”
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AFC WEST
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LAS VEGAS
With the sudden resignation of president Mark Badain a few weeks ago, other departures have also occurred in the Raiders front office. We note that two of the departures seem to be directly related to the team’s finances. Vincent Bonsignore in the Las Vegas Review-Journal:
Brandon Doll, the Raiders’ vice president of strategy and business development, is no longer with the organization, a person with knowledge of the situation confirmed Wednesday.
He is one of three front-office staffers who have departed, not including Marc Badain, the team president since 2013, who resigned two weeks ago.
In addition to Doll, a person with knowledge of the situation confirmed on Wednesday that Ed Villanueva and Araxie Grant also are no longer with the organization. Villanueva was the club’s CFO and had been with the organization for 18 years. Grant had been the club’s controller for a little more than a year.
No reason was given by the Raiders for the departure of Doll, who was beginning his ninth year with the organization and second in his role as vice president.
Doll was recently tabbed by Sports Business Journal as one of the top Forty Under 40 sports business executives.
And in case you wondered as the DB did – the pronoun for Araxie Grant would seem to be “she.”
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It is not all personnel heading out with the Raiders. They have signed DT GERALD McCOY. Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com:
The Las Vegas Raiders signed veteran free-agent defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to add to an already deep-but-rebuilt line on Wednesday, the team announced.
McCoy, 33, missed last season after suffering a ruptured right quadriceps tendon in training camp with the Dallas Cowboys.
The 6-foot-4, 300-pound McCoy was the No. 3 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2010 NFL draft and is a six-time Pro Bowl selection from 2012 through 2017. He was first-team All-Pro in 2013, when he had 9.5 sacks, 21 QB hits and four passes defensed. He also played for the Carolina Panthers in 2019 and has started all 139 games he has played in during his career, totaling 352 tackles, 59.5 sacks, six forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries.
Meanwhile, QB DEREK CARR feels “free”. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
After failing to make the playoffs under head coach Jon Gruden over the last three seasons, the Raiders would like to change their fortunes this season.
Quarterback Derek Carr will play a significant role in determining whether that happens and he outlined one difference about his approach to the game when he spoke to reporters on Wednesday. Carr said that he feels like he’s reached the right mental space for his play to flourish after years of feeling stress about his role.
“I remember the night before every practice, I’d be stressed out,” Carr said, via the team’s website. “In my head, I’m just hard on myself. I’m thinking about everything like, ‘I got to do that right.’ I’m checking my notes like, ‘I got to do that. I wrote this down, got to fix that.’ Now, it’s just so free. . . . Once I got away from trying to impress everybody else, I got comfortable with being me and honestly that’s when I’ve played my best.”
Carr looked comfortable for most of the 2020 season and posted the best passer rating of his NFL career. Increasing that comfort level is reason for optimism about the year to come, although it will be tempered by lingering questions on the other side of the ball.
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AFC NORTH
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PITTSBURGH
Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com looks at the Steelers prospects for 2021 from a gambler’s perspective:
The Pittsburgh Steelers take center stage on Thursday night at the Hall of Fame Game. Kind of.
This won’t be the Steelers team you’ll see in Week 1. Most starters will be held out of the extra preseason game against the Dallas Cowboys. But it’s a good time to check in on the Steelers for the 2021 season.
A lot of their success will revolve around the ability of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to look healthier than he did late last season.
Steelers win total: 8.5
Last season the Steelers started 11-0. It was against a light schedule, but winning 11 in a row in the NFL is hard no matter the opponents. There are two ways to look at the 2021 Steelers, in regards to this win total at BetMGM:
Over 8.5: This is a great defensive team, and a top-five defense provides a reliable floor for any team. Mike Tomlin has never posted a losing record. If the Steelers can fix the offensive line, Ben Roethlisberger might be good enough that there are no true holes on this roster. Roethlisberger did throw for 501 yards in that playoff loss last season, after all.
Under 8.5: Roethlisberger, off elbow reconstruction surgery, tailed off last season. He’s 39 and there’s no guarantee he’ll look better at that age. The offensive line is also an issue, and that could be problematic with a quarterback who is nearing 40. On top of that, the Steelers face one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.
Which side do you buy into?
Super Bowl odds: +4000
Among all the teams down in that zone of Super Bowl odds — the Steelers are tied for 17th best odds at BetMGM — you can actually tell yourself a story about the Steelers making a deep playoff run. Maybe Ben Roethlisberger does look better another offseason removed from elbow surgery. If the Steelers have some answers on the offensive line and Ben is healthy, this team does have a pretty high ceiling.
Best prop bet: Diontae Johnson receiving yards
The Steelers want to run the ball more, and assuming they won’t play at a breakneck pace, that means fewer passes. That means I’ll look for unders on Steelers pass catchers, and Johnson has the highest total at 975.5. Johnson is a good player, though his issues with drops are a problem and could eventually get him benched. If the Steelers’ quarterback play doesn’t rebound, it’ll be tough for the offense to support three good receivers. I think an under bet on Chase Claypool (900.5) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (800.5) could also cash, but Johnson is the best under bet among them.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Are the Texans nearing a deal to ship QB DESHAUN WATSON to the Eagles?
Deshaun Watson continues to be a member of the Houston Texans. There’s a good chance that’s going to be the case for awhile.
Contrary to a report that trade talks between the Eagles and Texans regarding a potential Watson deal are “heating up,” a source with knowledge of the situation tells PFT that they are not.
The problem at this point is the looming possibility of prosecution. As previously mentioned, Watson’s camp believes that the evidence against him inevitably will be presented to a grand jury. If he’s indicted on felony charges, the NFL undoubtedly will place him on paid leave until the case is resolved. Until then, it’s possible he’ll be convicted and then incarcerated.
“Teams have to wait to make sure jail isn’t a possibility,” one source explained.
Although only a few of the women who have accused Watson of wrongdoing have alleged forcible sexual misconduct, it takes only one allegation to become an indictment and in turn a conviction. At this point, especially in light of the trade compensation the Texans expect, it’s not worth taking the risk until knowing more about when and if Watson will be available to play football.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with an update on the state of negotiations between the Bills and Erie County:
Jimmy Graham says he was “basically forced into getting the vaccine” (56)
The future of the Bills in Buffalo became slightly less clear on Sunday, when the Buffalo News reported that owners of the team want a new stadium to be funded entirely by taxpayer money. On Wednesday, Erie County executive Mark Poloncarz tried to take some steam out of the situation — with an important caveat.
“We will get a deal done,” Poloncarz said, via ESPN.com. “It’s just got to be a fair deal for all.”
Poloncarz said, both verbally and on Twitter, that the team has not threatened to move if their requests aren’t met.
“I want the public to understand there’s been no gun put to the head of Erie County and New York state stating, ‘If you do not do this, we are moving,’” Poloncarz said. “I want people to understand negotiations are a long process. . . . A negotiation takes time. It takes compromise on both sides.”
In fairness to the Buffalo News, it didn’t report that threats had been made. It reported that, during the discussions that have occurred to date, representatives of the Bills have not made any threats but have “made clear to government negotiators that there are other cities elsewhere that desire an NFL franchise and would pay handsomely for it.”
Yes, that’s how negotiations happen. To get whatever the Bills want (or to even get close to it), they need leverage. Without the express or implicit suggestion that there’s an “or else” in the equation, they won’t get what they want.
For the city, the county, and the state, paying the full price of the stadium surely doesn’t amount to a “fair deal.” The question becomes whether the bottom line for the team intersects with the bottom line for the politicians.
But here’s the most important reality. The fact that the issue has emerged puts any and all other cities on notice of an opportunity to cobble together a package that could be sufficiently better than what can or will be offered in Buffalo. If the best offer from another city is close to the best offer from Buffalo, presumably the team would stay put. If the gap is so big that it can’t objectively be ignored, that becomes a potential problem.
For now, it’s unknown whether another city will make the Pegulas an offer they can’t or won’t refuse. What is known, however, is that there’s a reason for a city that believes having an NFL team unlocks a higher degree or tax revenue or status or whatever to start crunching numbers. That’s how Las Vegas got the Raiders from Oakland. That’s how Baltimore got the Ravens (Browns) from Cleveland. That’s how Indianapolis got the Colts from Baltimore.
That’s how it works. And while it’s premature to spot a viable alternative destination for the Bills, it’s not premature to wonder whether a viable alternative will emerge before the Bills sign off on whatever the best offer is that can be made in their current location.
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THIS AND THAT
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ENDANGERED STARTERS
Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com identifies 14 starters who may see their gigs end.
Training camp competitions ignited this week with pads coming on for all 32 teams. Here’s a look at some of the notable names at risk of losing their starting gigs this month.
Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco 49ers · QB
49ers general manager John Lynch gave himself away when he laid on the Garoppolo training camp praise too thick this week.
“He’s played his best football since he’s been here, and he’s played a lot of good football,” Lynch told The Adam Schefter Podcast.
Keep in mind this analysis is coming from a Hall of Fame safety, fully aware that the 49ers had yet to even practice once with pads on when he made the comments. All those OTAs and shorts-and-T-shirts practices early in camp are for teaching and installing. Lynch knows this. The quarterback competition with Trey Lance started in full on Tuesday. Lynch is fully aware Jimmy G’s troubles have come when the hitting starts, where his history of injuries and struggles to make quick decisions under pressure inspired the team to risk it all for Lance in the first place.
Another Lynch quote from the same session was more telling: “People say, ‘Well, what do you do if they’re both playing great?’ That’s another great problem to have, and we’ll deal with that when it comes.”
It’s coming, probably soon. August was never about how Garoppolo played; the 49ers already made their evaluation on him. This month is about whether Lance develops quickly enough to start Week 1 and nothing else. All reports indicate he’s on schedule or ahead of it.
Don’t put much stock in Kyle Shanahan saying he didn’t have a plan to give Lance first-team snaps … a day before he got a first-team snap. What have the 49ers said about their quarterbacks this entire year that would make you believe any of it?
Whether Garoppolo starts in Week 1 or not likely depends on Lance’s preseason. If the rookie can transfer his early practice success to the games, Garoppolo shapes up as the most expensive backup in football. At this stage, that strategy makes more sense than trading him.
Due nearly $25 million this season, Garoppolo would make for a tricky trade candidate. A team like the Colts, should they have interest, would probably want to negotiate a pay cut without giving up a truly premium draft pick. Why would Garoppolo or the 49ers want to bother?
The 49ers would be paying a lot of money for security, but this 49ers roster is ready to compete for a Super Bowl. Shanahan and Lynch have suffered through three losing seasons out of four largely because of injuries, often at quarterback. Entering the season with both Lance and Garoppolo offers them the best chance to make it to the finish line without having to play backups Nate Sudfeld or Josh Rosen. Just don’t be surprised if Garoppolo is the backup in this equation as early as Week 1. It’s not about him.
Jaylon Smith
Dallas Cowboys · MLB
Leighton Vander Esch is fresh and looking healthier than he has in years, at least for now. No. 12 overall pick Micah Parsons is lining up everywhere and isn’t going to leave the field. While defensive coordinator Dan Quinn figures to keep three linebackers on the field more than most teams, someone is going to lose snaps here and it’s probably Smith because of his struggles in coverage.
Damon Arnette
Las Vegas Raiders · CB
Coach Jon Gruden called Arnette’s rookie season “disappointing” back in January after injuries and COVID-19 interrupted the first-round pick’s progress, then the Raiders essentially replaced him in free agency. Former Charger Casey Hayward has taken Arnette’s outside corner spot with the starting group in camp, opposite Trayvon Mullen. It’s surprising only because Hayward has often been better in the slot, where the Raiders also could use help. Arnette appears more likely to come off the bench in his second season.
Nick Kwiatkoski
Las Vegas Raiders · ILB
Clelin Ferrell
Las Vegas Raiders · DE
Gruden changed defensive coordinators to Gus Bradley and clearly came into camp planning to dramatically change his defense. Kwiatkoski, a pricey free-agent acquisition a year ago, has often been the fourth linebacker to hit the field, according to The Athletic, with Nicholas Morrow and Cory Littleton as the starters.
Ferrell, the fourth pick in the 2019 draft, is consistently lining up as a backup behind starters Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue. Ferrell is finding his destiny as a run-stopping role player and will have a fine career, but the Raiders need more pass rush juice up front. It’s not his fault he was overdrafted.
John Brown
Las Vegas Raiders · WR
There are a lot of Raiders listed partly because Gruden has been so intentional with personnel groupings and they’ve had more newsworthy changes than most. When Brown signed in Las Vegas this offseason, I thought he had a chance to lead the team in receiving. For now, he’s the clear backup behind Bryan Edwards as the team’s X receiver. Henry Ruggs III has added weight and isn’t going to leave the field. Gruden compared Edwards to Terrell Owens on NFL Network, before Derek Carr compared Edwards to Davante Adams. These evaluations are either tinged with August fluff or Edwards is headed to Canton. Either way, it’s a reminder that the Raiders want to play the young guys. Brown might need an injury ahead of him to climb out of the No. 4 receiver role.
Landon Collins
Washington Football Team · SS
While coach Ron Rivera has experimented at practice with lining up Kamren Curl next to Collins, it appears the two men are battling for the strong safety job. Curl was a revelation as a seventh-round rookie starter and Collins is the second-highest paid player on the team, coming off a torn Achilles. Collins signed the contract with the previous Washington regime and hasn’t made a huge impact when he’s been on the field. It appears Curl will have a role as a nickel defender in the slot, so there is room for both, even if Collins plays fewer snaps. If Collins can’t win an every-down job, however, it’s possible he could be playing elsewhere in 2021.
Drew Lock
Denver Broncos · QB
The early quarterback competition in Denver has been back-and-forth, with Teddy Bridgewater turning it up this week after the pads came on. The tie here probably goes to Bridgewater. Coach Vic Fangio wants a caretaker who avoids mistakes and helps his defense win the game. Michael Silver reported for NFL.com in May, after spending a weekend with the Broncos’ front office, that Bridgewater was likely the team’s “presumptive starter” and there’s no reason to believe that’s changed.
Austin Hooper
Cleveland Browns · TE
Hooper isn’t going to get cut with a $4.5 million guaranteed base salary, nor should he. He’s a reliable chain-mover who finally made a few plays for the Browns in the playoffs last year. With that preamble out of the way, Hooper needs to show more to earn 784 snaps again. Odell Beckham Jr.’s return has improved the receiver depth, with wideout Rashard Higgins and running back Kareem Hunt also soaking up targets. Second-year tight end Harrison Bryant and David Njoku are more likely to make big plays from the tight end position. Hooper could be headed for a season where he’s more of a role player.
James Robinson
Jacksonville Jaguars · RB
It’s not just that the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne to swallow up many passing down snaps. Urban Meyer also brought in old Ohio State chum Carlos Hyde, who might get a handful of touches each week because of his explosiveness.
Gabriel Davis
Buffalo Bills · WR
If given the opportunity, Davis could make a big leap in his second season. The early indications are that he won’t get that chance. Emmanuel Sanders has taken over as the Bills’ third receiver alongside Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll praised Davis for sponging up information from his veterans, with the caveat that he’s “fortunate to have those three guys ahead of (Davis),” according to The Athletic.
Davis was the nominal fourth receiver last year, too, and wound up playing the second-most snaps because of injury. It will probably take an injury in front of him to get a full complement of snaps.
Raheem Mostert
San Francisco 49ers · RB
Rookie third-round pick Trey Sermon took a lot of first-team reps this offseason while Mostert missed time with a knee injury, and Sermon might stay there. His big frame could make sense for the 49ers on early downs with Mostert’s speed being used as a change of pace.
Kyle Shanahan has repeatedly touted Sermon’s impressive camp and is not afraid to play rookies or play the hot hand at running back. For all his heroic moments, Mostert hasn’t topped 137 carries in a season since joining the 49ers in 2017 and there’s no reason to think he will now.
Juan Thornhill
Kansas City Chiefs · S
A standout as a rookie, Thornhill never quite looked the same in 2020 after returning from a torn ACL. Even before leaving practice this week with a groin injury, Thornhill was lining up behind Daniel Sorensen on the Chiefs’ safety depth chart.
Quinton Dunbar
Detroit Lions · CB
When Dunbar signed with the Lions this offseason, it looked like he could be their No. 1 cornerback. But he’s been lining up strictly with the backups in camp thus far and is now out of practice with a personal issue. The Lions appear ready to stay young with a starting cornerback tandem of Jeff Okudah and Amani Oruwariye.
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5 TO PASS MEGATRON
Bryan DeArdo of CBSSports.com has his list of 5 receivers who could challenge 2,000 yards receiving in the first 17-game season.
The extra game may also lead to Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record falling in 2021, the same year that Johnson will have his career immortalized in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The former Lions receiver made history by recording 1,964 yards in 2012. The record was previously owned by Jerry Rice, who is often regarded as the greatest receiver in league history. Fresh off of his third Super Bowl victory, Rice recorded 1,848 yards during the 1995 season. And while Julio Jones was able to pass Rice with 1,871 yards during the 2015 season, he wasn’t able to catch Johnson, who also caught a league-high 122 passes during his record-breaking season.
With the 2021 season on the horizon, CBS Sports decided to take a look at receivers with the best shot at breaking Johnson’s record in 2021, starting with the league’s reigning receiving champion. Who knows, maybe one of these players will become the NFL’s first 2,000-yard receiver.
1. Stefon Diggs
BUF • WR • 14
TAR 166 REC 127 REC YDS 1535 REC TD 8
The league’s receiving champion in 2020, Diggs also led the NFL in receptions during his first season in Buffalo. After posting three 100-yard receiving games through the first 12 games of the season, Diggs had three consecutive games of more than 100 yards during the final month of the regular season. Diggs had an immediate rapport with Josh Allen, who also enjoyed a breakout season that included 37 touchdown passes and eight touchdown runs. Allen and Diggs came in at 10th and 12th, respectively, in NFL senior writer Pete Prisco’s annual list of the league’s top 100 players.
The duo of Diggs and Allen should continue to be one of (if not the) league’s most prolific in 2021. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the addition of Emmanuel Sanders impacts Diggs’ production. Sanders may very well take some of Diggs’ targets, but his presence should probably opening things up even more for his younger teammate.
2. Davante Adams
GB • WR • 17
TAR 149 REC 115 REC YDS 1374 REC TD 18
Despite dealing with hamstring and ankle injuries, Adams caught a league-high 18 touchdowns in 14 games in 2020. He also led the NFL with an average of 98.1 receiving yards per game. If healthy, Adams should be considered among the front-runners to win the NFL receiving title in 2021.
Adams has impeccable chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, who after months of speculation will be back in Green Bay for the upcoming season. Rodgers completed 77.2% of his passes to Adams, a Pro Bowler each of the last four years. A healthy Allen Lazard, the return of Randall Cobb and the selection of former Clemson wideout Amari Rodgers should further open things up for Adams, who should challenge Jordy Nelson’s franchise single season receiving record this season.
3. Tyreek Hill
KC • WR • 10
TAR 135 REC 87 REC YDS 1276 REC TD 15
In 15 games last season, the explosive Hill caught 15 touchdowns while recording 1,276 receiving yards. Hill is capable of putting up monster stat lines, as evidenced by his 269-yard, three-touchdown performance in Kansas City’s regular-season win over Tampa Bay. If he can improve his catch rate (he caught 64.4% of his targets in 2020), Hill could definitely challenge Johnson’s record in 2021.
With Sammy Watkins now in Baltimore, look for Hill to receive more targets in 2021. Hill will continue to compete for targets with Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ leader in receptions and receiving yards last season.
4. DeAndre Hopkins
ARI • WR • 10
TAR 160 REC 115 REC YDS 1407 REC TD 6
In his first year in the desert, Hopkins finished in a tie for second in the NFL in receptions and third in receiving yards. Hopkins may have won his first receiving title last season if not for multiple injuries to Kyler Murray during the second half of the season. With Murray battling injuries, Hopkins had 55 or fewer receiving yards in five of the Cardinals’ last seven games. He did put up a season-high 169 yards on nine receptions in Arizona’s Week 15 win over Philadelphia.
The Cardinals have put more weapons around Hopkins as he enters his second season in Arizona. They signed veteran A.J. Green, a seven-time Pro Bowler during his time in Cincinnati. Arizona then spent a second-round pick on Rondale Moore, who caught 178 passes in just 20 games at Purdue. A deeper receiving corps should create more space for Hopkins, who eclipsed 1,500 receiving yards on two different occasions during his time with the Texans.
5. DK Metcalf
SEA • WR • 14
TAR 129 REC 83 REC YDS 1303 REC TD 10
For several reasons, Metcalf edged out Justin Jefferson for the final spot on our list. For starters, Metcalf has the luxury of playing with perennial Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson and also gets to play alongside Tyler Lockett, who actually caught more passes than Metcalf did in 2020. With respect to Adam Thielen (who caught a career-high 14 touchdowns last season), Jefferson will likely receive extra attention from opposing defenses this season following his ridiculous rookie campaign.
While not as crazy, Metcalf also enjoyed a successful rookie year that saw him record 900 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He took a big leap in 2020, as he caught 83 of 129 targets for 1,303 yards and 10 scores en route to his first Pro Bowl selection. Metcalf possess a rare blend of size and speed that has quickly made him one of the NFL’s biggest big-play threats. Metcalf’s success will largely depend on the health of his supporting cast. If Wilson, running back Chris Carson, and fellow wideouts Lockett and rookie D’Wayne Eskridge are healthy, teams won’t be able to focus entirely on Metcalf, which was largely the case during the end of the 2020 season.
The DB’s money would be on Vikings WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON who had 88 catches for a rookie-record 1,400 yards as a rookie. Jefferson only had 70 total yards receiving in the first two games, before the Vikings began to realize what they had. So 1,370 yards in the last 14 games.
And Luke Braun has been watching Jefferson in Vikings camp so far:
It’s hard to watch anything in camp without Justin Jefferson exploding into your vision. Jefferson has been virtually unguardable in training camp so far. Be it Patrick Peterson, Cameron Dantzler, or Bashaud Breeland, Jefferson has had a trick up his sleeve to find a way to the ball.
In addition to unreal routes and deceptive tactics, Jefferson has excelled in the other areas. He’s tracking the ball naturally, he’s catching everything comfortably and hitting all of his depths.
Jefferson’s infectious personality is easy to spot. While it would be perfectly understandable for a somber mood to hang over the players, given that they are the most divided team in the league on COVID-19 vaccinations, that does not permeate the vibe on the field.
It’s difficult to avoid comparing Jefferson to Stefon Diggs, the latter of whom always dominated in Vikings camp. Diggs had an intensity that spread to the player across from him, leading to all-out marathons of iron sharpening iron. Jefferson’s attitude is looser, more relaxed, and effortless. Similarly, it spreads.
Glance at the wide receivers during stretches or individual drills, and you’ll almost always find someone dancing, joking, laughing, or just generally having a good time. Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Whop Philyor, and Adam Thielen are all starting to take on a Jefferson-like silliness. It shows up in their play, too, hitting their marks with a relaxed ease. The Vikings seemed to be enjoying the work rather than enduring it.
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