AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
So if a player feels that his team is not looking out for his welfare according to the negotiated protocol, he now has two choices. Confront his club directly and respectfully – or send an anonymous text on a special NFLPA snitch line. Grant Gordon of NFL.com:
In the interest of teams and players policing each other to better combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, the NFL Players Association sent players a phone number for them to report NFL teams’ violations of the agreed upon COVID-19 protocols, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported per an informed source.
Players can text the number, but they will remain anonymous, Garafolo added. Thereafter, the NFLPA can file a grievance on players’ behalves for alleged violations.
Protocols were finalized on Monday when the league and union resolved all issues and signed off on changes to the collective bargaining agreement in respect to the 2020 season and the issues posed due to the coronavirus.
Covid-19 poses a reasonable threat to few, if any, players. Not so much the coaches. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Recently, the league said that opt-out procedures for coaches and assistant coaches will be treated as individual team matters. It will be up to the teams to deal with more issues than that when it comes to coaching staffs.
Per a league source, the NFL believes that all matters regarding the pandemic and coaching staffs fall within the purview of the individual clubs. This includes procedures applicable to protecting, for example, coaches who fall into the same high-risk categories that qualify players for a full-season opt-out with no-strings-attached compensation.
For those members of the coaching staffs not inclined to opt out (assuming their teams even let them), what protocols will be used to keep them safe this season? Again, the league says that’s up to the teams.
This means that, if/when a head coach or assistant coach contracts COVID-19 and has a bad outcome, the league office will be able to say, “Don’t blame us.” The teams need to realize that this will be the attitude, and they need to come up with strategies for protecting the coaching staffs, especially those who are at higher risk of serious illness or death.
The broader problem is this: NFL coaches and assistant coaches have no union. If they had a union, these issues definitely would have been handled by now. Perhaps, as the dust settles on the pandemic and the coaches see how they’ve been treated by the various individual teams, a long-overdue push will commence to protect coaches via the same collective bargaining rights that are used by the players and the officials when dealing with the NFL.
Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com with an update on the state of positive tests among the players:
The NFL Players Association says that 56 players have tested positive for COVID-19 since players began reporting to training camps last week.
That represents approximately 2 percent of the players currently on NFL rosters.
The league would obviously love to see zero players testing positive, something the NBA and NHL have both managed by putting all their players into bubbles. But the NFL is not going to use a bubble, and so a 0 percent rate of infection is all but impossible.
Still, if the league and its players can keep the infection rate relatively low, the season can go on as scheduled, without having to cancel games like Major League Baseball.
The problem is that keeping the rate of infection relatively low is going to be very difficult once players are practicing with each other daily and playing against each other weekly. Even one infected player being able to practice before he knows he’s infected could result in the kind of outbreak within a team that the Miami Marlins had just days into the baseball season, leading to a chain reaction of games being canceled.
So the NFL and the players will need to be vigilant for the next six months if the league is going to have a complete season, up to and including the Super Bowl.
Liz Roscher of YahooSports.com on the same topic.
The NFLPA released those results on Thursday morning, and approximately 2 percent of players tested positive for COVID-19.
That’s just 56 positive tests out of 2,600 players. With the COVID-19 opt-out date arriving on Thursday, that figure could put the minds of many players at ease. Most players did not have COVID-19 when they came to camp, and it appears that there’s been minimal spread since. If everyone remains careful, the NFL may be able to avoid disaster and execute a safe season.
That’s a big, big “if,” though.
Real test for NFL will come in September
The small number of positive tests since players began reporting is certainly encouraging, but it doesn’t tell us all that much about the NFL’s safety protocols. Remember, MLB’s initial positive rate after intake testing was also below 2 percent. We’ve seen how that’s turned out: outbreaks on two teams before the season was two weeks old.
The NFL will get the first real look at how its protocols are working after Aug. 17, when full contact practices begin. Sweaty players will be getting close to each other, up in each other’s faces in ways they haven’t yet. Each team will only be as safe as their least safe member.
Full contact practices are small potatoes compared to what comes next: the start of the regular season in September. That’s when the real test will begin. That’s where MLB stumbled, and the NFL is obviously hoping to avoid the same outcome — even though their safety protocols, like MLB’s, rely on the personal responsibility of each player to stay safe. Teams will be traveling to different cities and getting close to players they haven’t interacted with yet. The safety of two entire teams will be on each player’s shoulders.
If someone on the offensive line of a visiting team decides to go out to a bar while he’s playing in New Orleans, that puts two entire teams at risk. It doesn’t have to be New Orleans, or even a bar. It could be a convenience store in Cincinnati, or a trusted friend’s house in Dallas. According to Miami Marlins owner Derek Jeter, their team outbreak could have started from those innocent outings.
There’s no reason to look at the low positivity rate as anything but good news. Early on, things are working and players are staying safe. But things have barely begun. There are major trials in the NFL’s future. Let’s hope the NFL, and every single one of its players, is up to the task.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Suspended DE RANDY GREGORY is incensed at the lack of attention he is receiving from the NFL. Todd Archer of ESPN.com
Dallas Cowboys defensive end Randy Gregory took to social media Wednesday to say he is being treated unfairly by the NFL as he attempts to be reinstated from an indefinite suspension.
“I really miss playing football and being a player in the NFL,” Gregory wrote. “I’m doing everything that is asked of me and I’m in great shape physically, mentally and emotionally but I’m being held back from furthering my career because of Covid and testing. I’ve been ready to play and test for months but still have gotten little to no help to resolve my reinstatement. I’m asking more questions than I’m getting answered. It’s amazing that the powers that can keep passing the buck and also use this pandemic as a way to prevent me from joining my team. Telling me to just sit and wait in limbo over things I can’t control, all the while doing everything right off the field is unfair and flat out wrong!!!”
A request for comment from the NFL regarding Gregory’s status has been made.
Gregory applied for reinstatement in March, according to sources. Last month ESPN reported his attempt to return had not been denied but he was not cleared to return either and sources said there was some optimism he would be allowed around the team in some fashion even if he could not practice.
Gregory is on an indefinite suspension for multiple violations of the league’s substance-abuse policy dating to his rookie year in 2015.
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
Buccaneers players don’t need to interact with the public unless they want to. Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times:
Bucs coach Bruce Arians’ message to his players in the team’s first full-squad meeting of training camp focused on commitment — not just to winning, but adhering to the protocols that will help keep COVID-19 from affecting the season.
“If we have all our players, I like our chances,” Arians said Wednesday on a video conference call with reporters.
Arians is confident the Bucs will be able to prevent the virus from infiltrating the team and avoid recent outbreaks that Major League Baseball has seen with the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals.
The Bucs are taking extra precautions, including sequestering part of an area hotel for players who want to remain isolated in a simulated bubble-type atmosphere. A bus takes players who stay there to and from the facility. The division-rival Saints are doing the same thing, renting four floors of a downtown New Orleans hotel for players and staff who want to sequester during training camp.
“We have a hotel sequestered now,” Arians said. “We can’t force the guys to go, so it’s up to them. We have some veterans over there who don’t live in town, because they know how safe it’ll be and, obviously, we stay there the night before home games like we always have.”
The NFL season won’t be played in a bubble like the NHL, NBA, WNBA or MLS, and the size of football rosters creates more opportunity for exposure. Still, Arians, whose players and staff will undergo daily testing and work in a completely redesigned facility for social distancing, believes the Bucs can be successful.
Two players and an assistant coach tested positive for COVID-19 in June. And last week, draft picks Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Raymond Calais, as well as second-year running back Aca’Cedric Ware, were placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, which is for players who either test positive or were in close contact with an infected person. No other players have been placed on the list since Calais and Ware went on it Friday.
“We’ve talked about having a commitment to each other, and it only takes one to sink the ship,” Arians said. “And right now I think it’ll be easier to handle, although we’ll still have 69 guys this year once we get going after the cuts. So it’s gonna be a little bit harder, but it’s gonna take a hell of a commitment from everybody.”
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NFC WEST
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
CB JALEN RAMSEY is getting antsy as his contract runs down. Gary Klein of the LA Times:
An impending contract extension expected to make him the highest-paid player at his position in NFL history is not on Jalen Ramsey’s mind.
The Rams’ star cornerback made that clear Tuesday during a videoconference with reporters that included Ramsey walking out after fielding several questions about the subject — and then returning to explain his exit.
“I’m not worried about it,” he said. “I’m worried about football. I’m worried about other things in my life. Like, my blessings will come when they come. I’ve got all my trust in God.”
– – –
On Monday, Rams general manager Les Snead declined to offer specifics about the state of negotiations but expressed optimism and said the Rams had a good relationship with Ramsey’s agent, David Mulugheta.
Tuesday marked the second day of training camp team activities for the Rams during an acclimation phase that can include team meetings, conditioning drills without position coaches and a walkthrough.
It also included a midday videoconference for Ramsey.
After fielding a few questions about how it felt to be back, building camaraderie with teammates and playing football during a pandemic, Ramsey was asked if it was important to him have a new contract done before the season opener.
“My agent and the front office, they’ll handle all that,” Ramsey said.
Asked if mentally, going into the season, it was important to him to have the security of an extension before he stepped onto the field for a game, Ramsey repeated that his agent and the Rams front office would handle it. Then he said, “Come on now, man … you’ve got to take the answer I give you, man.”
When another reporter began that it was a fair question, Ramsey interrupted.
“I answered it though,” he said. “ I said my agent and the front office, they are going to handle it. I’m worried about what I can worry about and controlling what I can control.
“I answered the question, I’m not going to continue answering it just because I’m not answering it the way you all want me to. Either accept the answer or keep it pushing. I don’t want to get disrespectful, but that’s the answer. Appreciate it.”
Then he left.
Rams media officials coaxed Ramsey to return a few minutes later. Before taking more questions, Ramsey spoke for more than two minutes.
“When I answer a question, that’s the answer,” he said. “I understand you all want to ask me about my contract and stuff like that. I told you all at the beginning of this, I said, ‘I’m controlling what I can control. … I’m not worried about it. I’m trying to do my job as a football player, I’m trying to be a leader on the team. I’m not going to do every Zoom session or however we’re going to do them this year talking about my contract.
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AFC NORTH
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PITTSBURGH
Coach Mike Tomlin wants you to know that QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER’s arm is just fine. Adam Maya of NFL.com:
It has been more than 13 years since Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger first started working together. Prior to this week, it had been nearly a full year since the Steelers coach saw his future Hall of Fame QB throw in person.
Tomlin knows as well as anyone how resilient Big Ben is. But it was comforting nonetheless to observe the 38-year-old gunslinger performing on a practice field after losing a season to injury and an offseason to the pandemic.
Roethlisberger, Tomlin assured, can still rip it.
“I’ve watched him throw a couple times this week. He has the Ben-like velocity,” Tomlin said during a Thursday appearance on Good Morning Football. “I’m still looking for the super tight spiral. There’s still some ground to cover, but we still have time. I’m excited to see him doing what he does, stepping out of the phone booth, so to speak, with a cape on and being the guy he has been for us and facing the challenges that this season will present.”
Big Ben, of course, has been the Man of Steel for even longer than Tomlin’s been in Pittsburgh. He’d already won a Super Bowl and led Pittsburgh to a pristine 13-0 mark as a rookie before Tomlin arrived in 2007. The Steelers haven’t had a losing record since, although the past 10 months have arguably been the toughest for the duo.
Roethlisberger suffered his first significant in-season injury last September, tearing three flexor tendons in his throwing elbow that cost him 14 games. Pittsburgh would proceed to miss the postseason for the second straight year. Fast forward a few months and Big Ben is not only zipping the ball but also in better shape, believing he weighs about what he did when Tomlin began coaching him as a 25-year-old.
His coach isn’t surprised.
“In terms of mentality and intent, I have no question what we’re going to get from Big Ben,” Tomlin said. “Going on 14 years working with this guy, I’ve watched him stare adversity in the face. It brings out the best in him always. In terms of physically and how he’s rebounding from this, It’s a process he’s going through. We’re leaning on the medical personnel, but so far so good.”
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Experts have been cool on the Texans’ acquisition of highly-compensated RB DAVID JOHNSON who has not been the same in recent years. Johnson uses that as fuel. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Texans are confident that running back David Johnson will rebound from the injuries and ineffectiveness that marked his final years with the Cardinals, but plenty of other people think that the back’s best days are behind him.
Those voices have often made unfavorable comparisons between Johnson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who went to Arizona in the trade that brought Johnson to Houston. On Thursday, Johnson said that he welcomes the expectations that come with a trade for such a productive player.
“I like the pressure. It makes me want to compete more,” Johnson said, via Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle.
One area where Johnson doesn’t sound competitive is in the battle for time in the backfield. He’ll split time with Duke Johnson and said that the duo will be “a lethal threat” to opposing defenses this season. If that proves to be true, the Texans Offense shouldn’t feel too much pain from Hopkins’ departure.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
As CB TRE’DAVIOUS WHITE publicly played Hamlet on the critical decision to play or not to play in 2020, Bills fans and others have been providing advice. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White currently is considering the possibility of opting out of the 2020 season. Some fans are giving White grief for putting family over football.
“Crazy that me choosing my family’s wellbeing over a game comes with so called fans attacking and questioning me and saying I’m selfish,” White tweeted on Thursday morning. “No you guys are selfish for thinking that football is bigger than life. Oh by the way my girl’s grandfather passed from COVID. U understand now?”
No player should be questioned for making the excruciating decision to walk away from football for a full year, sacrificing the ability to play and the ability to get paid to play — with no guarantee that the red carpet will be rolled out in 2021.
White won’t have to worry about having a job in 2021; he’s an All-Pro cornerback. Still, the prospect of choosing to not play football for a full year is anything but an easy choice. White’s decision, whatever it may be, should be accepted and respected.
The deadline for opting out arrives at 4:00 p.m. ET on Thursday. Unfortunately, there’s no deadline on the mindset that has some fans view NFL players as something other than human beings who face the same issues and concerns the rest of us confront.
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Meanwhile, WR STEFON DIGGS is saying “who me?” when asked about strong-arming and big-mouthing his way out of Minnesota. Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com:
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs spoke to local media for the first time since he was traded from the Minnesota Vikings in March, expressing excitement over his new opportunity in western New York.
He also bristled at the notion that he forced his way out of Minnesota.
When asked what made him believe his current situation would be better than his previous one, given that he vocally expressed his displeasure with the Vikings, Diggs said he never expressed his concerns publicly.
“As far as my past with Minnesota, I never actually said anything,” he said Wednesday. “But, to this new situation, I’m excited. There is no right or wrong or problems to be fixed from my old situation. I have a lot of respect for the Minnesota Vikings. At that time, a trade happened — you’ve kind of got to look at it for what it is. But I never really was vocal about what I did or didn’t like (in Minnesota).”
The Vikings fined Diggs more than $200,000 last season for unexcused absences from practices and meetings, sources told ESPN in October, when he missed multiple meetings and practices in the days leading up to the team’s game against the New York Giants. Rumors swirled about a potential trade involving Diggs — rumors that he admits there was some “truth” to.
Ultimately, Diggs remained a Viking through the entirety of the 2019 season, finishing with a career-high 1,130 yards and six touchdowns on 63 catches.
However, shortly after the Vikings signed quarterback Kirk Cousins to an extension in March, Diggs tweeted “it’s time for a new beginning,” which struck teams around the league as a sign the receiver wanted out of Minnesota. He was traded to the Bills later that night.
He referenced the tweet during his news conference Wednesday, but downplayed it being a vocal complaint.
“I never really was too vocal about it,” he reiterated. “‘It’s time for a new beginning’ was enough said. I am super excited for my new situation. This is also a great organization built on a lot of hardworking guys. A lot of guys that really grinded to get to where they’re at.
“I trust the people that are in place, I’m just happy to be a part of it. I’m not trying to reinvent the wheel or anything, I just want to be as helpful as I can, be a puzzle piece and try to mesh as well as I can to help this team win.”
From a selfish standpoint, if you were a receiver, which QB do you think gives you a better chance to thrive – KIRK COUSINS or JOSH ALLEN? In their respective offenses? Serious question and we will go a long way towards finding out this year.
Over the last three seasons, Diggs averaged (on a 16-game prorated basis) – 833 catches, 1,091 yards and 8 TDs.
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MIAMI
Two Dolphins WRs have opted out. Cameron Wolfe of ESPN.com:
Miami Dolphins receiver Albert Wilson became the latest notable player to opt out of the 2020 NFL season due to coronavirus concerns.
“I’ve decided to opt out this 2020 season,” he announced Wednesday on Twitter. “It was a very tough choice but since the day I started playing the game it’s always been Faith Family Football. Because of this crazy time, I choose to put my family in the best situation I see fit. I will stand by my teammates & brothers to support them 100% throughout this season and will be counting the days until I can join them again.”
Wilson becomes the second Dolphins player to opt out in as many days, joining fellow receiver Allen Hurns. More than 50 players across the league have opted out thus far.
The Dolphins took a hit in receiver depth with Wilson and Hurns opting outs. It was one of the team’s deepest positions, but now Miami is down two players who were likely to make the roster and contribute to a new-look offense. DeVante Parker is now the only Dolphins receiver with more than 1,000 receiving yards during his career.
The pressure is on Parker, Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant to carry the bulk of the receiving load. Running back Matt Breida might also see an uptick in action as a receiver. Players from a group of bubble receivers — Isaiah Ford, Gary Jennings, Mack Hollins, Kirk Merritt and Matt Cole — now have a path to make the roster.
The Dolphins could also look to add a veteran receiver in free agency.
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THIS AND THAT
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COPING WITH CORONA
The best record in baseball belongs to – the Miami Marlins. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald on Wednesday’s resumption:
Miami Marlins players made their way to the field at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in groups Tuesday like they would to get ready for any other game.
But there were some small yet noticeable differences to their pre-game setup.
The sheer amount of new faces was a start. Seventeen, to be exact. They were officially added to the active roster about two hours before first pitch to replace players who tested positive for COVID-19 over an eight-day span starting hours before the Marlins’ season opener against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 24 that temporarily paused the Marlins’ season for a week. They went to the field in waves with their respective position groups.
The relievers trotted to left field first, like usual, and spent 30-plus minutes playing catch and warming up their arms while pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. watched along. They practiced in small groups, limiting the amount of players out in the area at any given time.
Monte Harrison, one of those 17 new faces, then stepped out of the dugout beyond the third-base line with outfielders coach Billy Hatcher. Both wore masks as they went to center field, where Harrison started running sprints back toward the third-base line. About 90 minutes from that moment, he would make his MLB debut in center field and batting ninth in the Marlins’ lineup.
More position players followed, that group relatively unscathed by the the clubhouse’s coronavirus outbreak.
And then, at 8:16 p.m., Jonathan Villar stepped into the box to face Baltimore Orioles All-Star John Means. Two hours and 38 minutes later, the Marlins walked off the field with a 4-0 win. Francisco Cervelli and Jesus Aguilar hit home runs. Pablo Lopez dazzled for five innings.
“This one felt good,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said.
It underscored the moment: For the first time in nine days, after pondering what might happen to their season while quarantined in a Philadelphia hotel, the Marlins played a live game, starting a three-day, four-game series against the Orioles.
The Marlins don’t plan to take this chance for granted.
“We’ve been given an opportunity to hit the reset button,” Marlins CEO Derek Jeter said, “and moving forward we just cannot make any mistakes.”
After all, it was mistakes, lapses in judgment, that put them in their current position, that resulted in their eight days of limbo leading up to Tuesday, that created a problem bigger than figuring out who will be in their lineup or who will be on the mound on any given day.
As the Marlins resumed their season Tuesday, a resumption delayed 41 minutes because the team had to wait at their hotel for a few inconclusive COVID-19 test results to come back in order to get clearance from MLB, they did so with more than half of their Opening Day roster quarantining in South Florida.
Eighteen players and two coaches contracted the novel coronavirus, leaving the Marlins without three of their five original starting pitchers (including Opening Day starter Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Jose Urena), eight of their original 12 relievers, their starting shortstop Miguel Rojas, their starting catcher Jorge Alfaro, two outfielders, one of their backup catchers in Chad Wallach and a utility infielder in Sean Rodriguez. Second baseman Isan Diaz also opted out of the season.
At least two players, Rojas and outfielder Harold Ramirez, said they’ve experienced mild symptoms including fever and cough. The majority of the group has been asymptomatic. Jeter expects most if not all of the 18 to rejoin the team at some point this season.
So, something like two with mild symptoms, up to 16 without any symptoms. Nine days off.
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NEW 2020 PLAYOFF TEAMS
Earlier this week Patrik Walker of CBSSports.com declared that the Patriots, Eagles, Texans and Packers would not make the next playoffs.
Jared Dubin, also of CBSSports.com, tells us four of the six that will take their place.
At an absolute minimum, there will be two teams that make the playoffs in 2020 despite not making the playoffs in 2019. (Assuming the playoffs actually happen.) The NFL has added a No. 7 seed in each conference, expanding the playoff field from 12 teams to 14. For that reason, this year’s version of the “teams that missed the playoffs last year that will make it this year” piece is somewhat likely to be more accurate than it has been in previous years.
Another factor that makes increased accuracy more likely is that there are some glaringly obvious bounceback candidates out there, with several prominent teams prime for positive regression and/or improvement due to personnel changes at important positions like quarterback or head coach. In the space below, we’ll dive into our four teams most likely to make the jump from the outside looking in into the actual playoff field in 2020.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh damn near made the playoffs last season despite fielding one of the league’s worst offenses. The Steelers scored on only 28.6 percent of their possessions last season, the third-worst rate in the NFL. Of course, that happened with Ben Roethlisberger on the sideline. In four of the previous five seasons, the Steelers ranked inside the top 10 in percentage of possessions that resulted in a score, and they were inside the top five in three of those campaigns. It’s extraordinarily likely that their offense is among the most improved units in the league in 2020 — assuming Roethlisberger can play more than a game and a half.
The Steelers’ defense should regress a bit from where it was last season, even if only because it’s extremely unlikely that they’ll force a turnover on 19 percent of their opponents’ possessions again. But there is room for the defense to regress and still be an elite unit. They ranked fifth in both yards and points allowed last season, as well as third in defensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. (They ranked third in DVOA against both the run and the pass, a strong indication of the defense’s overall strength.)
They return most of the personnel from last year’s defense, with the only major change being Chris Wormley stepping in for Javon Hargrave. A full season of Minkah Fitzpatrick on the back end should help make up for that downgrade, though, as should the depth the team added with Alex Highsmith, Carlos Davis, Antoine Brooks, and Trajan Bandy.
The Steelers also still have one of the league’s best offensive lines, and their pass-catching corps looks better than it did this time last year. Diontae Johnson took a step forward over the second half of last season, and even James Washington flashed some skills. They also brought in Eric Ebron at tight end, and drafted enormous speedster Chase Claypool in the second round. Roethlisberger has no shortage of options to whom he can throw the ball.
A schedule featuring games against the NFC East and AFC South helps the Steelers’ chances as well, giving them the ninth-easiest slate in the league.
Dallas Cowboys
Coming into last season, the Cowboys were the poster boys for the type of team we would expect to regress and miss the playoffs after making it the year before. Dallas had gone 10-6 and won the NFC East in 2018, but had the point differential of an 8.4-win team and gone 9-3 in one-score games. Teams that overperform their point differential and have far-better-than-.500 records in close games tend to regress the following season, and that’s exactly what happened to the Cowboys: Dallas went 8-8 last year.
However, the 8-8 Cowboys actually had the point differential of a 10.7-win team, with their plus-113 mark checking in as the sixth-best in the NFL. They also went an unsustainably bad 1-6 in one-score games. They are now a team that absolutely screams positive regression. If they are simply average at winning one-score games in 2020, they should be something like a nine- or 10-win team.
Helping them in that pursuit is the coaching upgrade from Jason Garrett to Mike McCarthy. Your mileage may vary on McCarthy’s merits, but Garrett was one of the most damaging coaches in the league for a significant majority of his tenure in Dallas. His conservative nature often put the Cowboys in poor down-and-distance situations and led to their passing up opportunities for scores in favor of kicks. He showed very little awareness of proper clock management or the benefits of things like passing on early downs or off play-action as opposed to straight dropbacks.
McCarthy is almost Garrett’s polar opposite in most of these areas. The new Cowboys coach was among the pass-heaviest coaches in the league during his time in Green Bay — especially on early downs. His teams were among the most aggressive in the league on fourth downs and two-point conversions, belying the reputation he developed due to high-profile conservative decisions like those made in the team’s NFC title game loss to the Seahawks.
Getting league-average strategy and decision-making from McCarthy would represent a big step forward for the Cowboys. If he pursues optimal strategies as often as, say, John Harbaugh and the Ravens did last season, that could benefit the Cowboys even more. Dallas should also get an upgrade on special teams, where they hired one of the league’s best coordinators (John Fassel) to take over what was one of the NFL’s worst units the past couple years.
Throw in a relatively easy schedule (10th easiest in the league) and the Cowboys look like an excellent bet to make the postseason.
Indianapolis Colts
The Steelers and Cowboys benefit from schedules that rank among the 10 easiest in the NFL. Well, the Colts face the single easiest slate of opponents in the league this season. They have the benefit of playing in the AFC South, their divisional rotation games are against the AFC and NFC North, and they get the Raiders and Jets thanks to a third-place finish in the division last year.
That third-place finish actually could have been a playoff season, though. The Colts began the season 6-4, only to see Jacoby Brissett’s knee injury derail their offense and spur a 1-5 collapse down the stretch. Brissett wasn’t the only one to miss time and play injured otherwise: T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell (the team’s projected top two receivers coming into the year) combined to play just 674 snaps on the year.
The team replaced Brissett with Philip Rivers, who has yet to miss a start due to injury in his career. Even in the event he does suffer an injury for the first time, the Colts still have Brissett waiting in the wings as one of the NFL’s best backups. They added depth at receiver (Michael Pittman Jr.), tight end (Trey Burton) and running back (Jonathan Taylor), further strengthening a unit that looked capable even while employing a backup plan under center. Rivers already has familiarity with Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni’s offense from their time together with the Chargers, so he should be able to pick things up more easily than other QBs who change teams.
Indianapolis also added one of the league’s best interior defenders, swinging a trade for DeForest Buckner. Plop him into the middle of the defensive line and let him wreak havoc, and things get easier for Justin Houston on the edge, for Darius Leonard and the other linebackers, and for the secondary as well. Matt Eberflus will put Buckner and everyone else in position to succeed, and the defense could take a quick step forward as a result.
The Colts are also helped by sharing a division with two teams that are among the most likely to regress in 2020: the Texans and Titans. Houston was outscored last season and still managed to make the playoffs, but traded DeAndre Hopkins for a running back who isn’t even the most dynamic D.Johnson on the roster. Tennessee is extraordinarily unlikely to get most-efficient-QB-in-the-NFL-level play from Ryan Tannehill again, nor to see Derrick Henry average 5.9 yards per carry during the games Tannehill is under center. Any regression from either or both of those teams only helps the Colts’ chances.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As you may or may not have heard, the Buccaneers have a new quarterback. While Tom Brady may not throw for quite as many yards or touchdowns as Jameis Winston did last season, one thing he will undoubtedly do is dramatically slash the team’s turnover rate.
The Bucs gave the ball away on nearly 21 percent of their possessions last season, the single highest rate in the league. In the last decade, the Patriots never turned the ball over on more than 10 percent of their possessions. They were among the four least turnover-happy teams in the league in nine of those 10 seasons. That shift alone should give the Bucs 15-18 extra chances to score in 2020 than they had in 2019, and also keep their defense from facing short fields quite as often as they did a year ago.
The Bucs also have a strong defense, an upgraded offensive line, and a relatively easy schedule (11th-easiest in the league) on their side. They seem like one of the strongest bets to make the jump into the postseason field.
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A NEW SCHEDULE
John Breech of CBSSports.com believes Covid-19 will continue to terrorize us throughout the fall and that the NFL should scrap its current schedule in response. He put a lot of thought into his proposal.
If I’ve learned one thing from sitting on my couch and watching 112 hours of sports over the past nine days, it’s that the NFL might want to start re-thinking its plan for the 2020 season. Unlike the NBA and NHL, the NFL has decided not to put its players in a bubble this year, which is the same plan that Major League Baseball implemented, and if you’ve been watching MLB, you’ve probably noticed that it’s been nothing short of a disaster.
In Major League Baseball, more than 30 games have already been postponed and that’s mainly because one team — cough, the Marlins — is single-handedly trying to get the sport shut down (The Cardinals also aren’t helping out very much). The good news for baseball is that it’s pretty easy to reschedule any game that gets postponed, which means the Marlins (and Cardinals) will likely be able to play a full schedule even though half their rosters have came down with coronavirus.
Unfortunately for the NFL, things won’t be as easy in the rescheduling department if a team comes down with dozens of cases of COVID-19. Although the NFL does have a few contingencies built into the schedule this year, the fact of the matter is that those contingencies aren’t going to solve every problem that comes up.
Here’s a quick look at those contingencies:
All teams playing each other in Week 2 have the same bye week, which allows the game to easily be rescheduled if it has to be postponed.
Week 3 and 4 have no divisional games, which means the NFL could conceivably cancel both weeks if there’s some sort of outbreak.
Every team has two home games and two away games over the first four weeks, which means if the first four weeks of the season had to be canceled all 32 teams would still have the same amount of home and away games.
Despite those contingencies, there are still a lot of questions the NFL hasn’t answered. For instance, what happens if the dozens of players on a team all test positive for the virus on the Friday before any game played after Week 4? Will the NFL simply postpone the game until January or scrap them entirely?
Also, what happens if a team tests positive AFTER a game? That would conceivably mean that not only would the positive testing team have to isolate, but their opponent would have to isolate as well, knocking out two teams for the following week. Basically, if baseball has proven one thing, it’s that one team can wreck a season and football simply isn’t equipped to rebound from that if it happens.
If I were running the NFL, I’d fix things by completely revamping the 2020 season plan, and here’s how I’d do it
First, remember that schedule that the NFL released in May? I’d toss it out the window. We don’t need it anymore. The remodeled schedule will chop the season down from 269 games (including the playoffs) to 222 games. Although networks won’t be thrilled with the thought of losing that many games, I’ve added a few wrinkles that should make up for the lost inventory.
Right now, the NFL has so many questions to answer that Odell Beckham doesn’t even think the league should be playing this year, so let’s see if we can change his mind with this completely revamped regular season.
So what will this revamped schedule look like?
Let’s check it out, and Roger Goodell, if you’re reading, please feel free to steal all of these ideas.
Regular season
The first big change here is that the regular season will only be 12 games long. Another major change here is that AFC-NFC matchups will be completely scrapped from the schedule because it doesn’t make sense to have those games during a shortened season.
With those out of the way, here’s what the rest of the regular season will look like:
Week 1 thru Week 7: Division games only. Every team will play each divisional opponent twice for a total of six games. For instance, the Chiefs will play home-and-away games with the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers over the first seven weeks of the season. Although this can be done in six weeks, there are seven weeks here for contingency purposes. Each team will get a bye week with every corresponding division taking their bye week together (For example, the AFC North and NFC North would take a bye together in Week 3 followed by the NFC/AFC East in Week 4 and so on). More importantly, the bye week could also be used to make up any games that were postponed due to coronavirus.
Bubble option: Although I’m not necessarily proposing a bubble — because the NFL seems to be against it due to the complicated logistics — I do have a bubble proposal. For the first seven weeks of the season, eight bubbles could be created with one team from each division serving as host. For instance, the Chiefs could host the three other AFC West teams over the first seven weeks of the season.
Weeks 8-14: One advantage of being a bad team is that you get a last place schedule, and although my proposed season will only be 12 games long, I think it makes sense to keep the integrity of the last place schedule intact. With that in mind, the second set of six games will look like this: All first and second place teams from 2019 will play all other first and second place teams in their conference while all third and fourth place teams will play all the other third and fourth place teams.
For instance, under this scenario, the Chiefs would play the Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Bills, Texans and Titans. On the other hand, a team like the Bengals — who finished in last place in 2019 — would play the Raiders, Chargers, Colts, Jaguars, Jets and Dolphins, who all finished in third or fourth place last year. The Bengals schedule would then be their six division games plus the six aforementioned opponents.
One key part here is that all AFC teams would get a bye in Week 12 while all NFC teams would all get a bye in Week 13. The bye can obviously be used as a bye, but more importantly, it can also be used to make up any games that were postponed after Week 8.
Bubble option: Since the divisional bubble would no longer work for Weeks 8-14, we’d switch the bubble over to the team with the best record from 2019. For instance, the Chiefs — as defending Super Bowl champs — would host the bubble that includes the Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Bills, Texans and Titans. The AFC’s third and fourth place bubble would be hosted in Vegas by the Raiders, and that bubble would include the Bengals, Browns, Chargers, Colts, Jaguars, Jets and Dolphins. In the NFC, the 49ers and Rams would host the bubbles (the 49ers get hosting duties because they had the best record in the NFC last season while the Rams would be hosting because they had the best record of any third or fourth-place team in the NFC.
Ladies and gentlemen — that would be your 12-game regular season.
Just for reference, here’s what the Cowboys schedule would look like: Eagles x 2, Giants x 2, Redskins x 2, Saints, Falcons, Packers, Vikings, 49ers, Seahawks. In the AFC, the Patriots schedule would look like this: Bills x 2, Dolphins x 2, Jets x 2, Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans, Texans, Broncos. I’m only mentioning those two teams because everyone always asks me about those two teams.
Alright, now that we’ve covered the regular season, let’s move on to the playoffs, where things are going to get a little wild.
Postseason
This is going to sound crazy, but in this revamped format, TWENTY-FOUR teams are going to make the playoffs. The NHL is having a 24-team playoff and it makes sense. If you’re taking away regular season games, teams don’t have a full season to prove themselves, so you should open up the playoffs to more teams. Also, this number isn’t completely unprecedented: During the NFL’s strike-shortened season of 1982, the NFL allowed 16 of 28 teams into the playoffs (57.1%).
If 24 teams make the playoffs, that means eight teams won’t, and this is where things get fun: Instead of having their season end, those eight teams will take part in the first-ever NFL Draft Tournament (I probably should go ahead and get that trademarked now). Basically, this will be an eight-team playoff and the winner of the playoff will get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The draft tournament would almost certainly get huge ratings compared to a normal regular season game, so networks would likely be on board. The eight-team playoff field would be made up of the teams with the four worst records in the AFC and the teams with the four worst record in the NFC.
Using last year’s standings, here’s what the first round of the draft tournament would have looked like:
8. Bengals at 1. Browns
7. Washington at 2. Chargers
6. Lions at 3. Panthers
5. Giants at 4. Dolphins
For the draft tournament, conference affiliation would be thrown out the window and all eight teams would be seeded by record.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s move on with the schedule.
Week 15: During Week 15, the only games on the schedule would be the first four games of the draft playoff. This would serve two purposes: For one, it would allow the draft playoff games to pull in monstrous ratings. Also, with the other 24 teams off, it means that any postponed games that still need to be rescheduled can be played this week. If there aren’t any games that need to be rescheduled, this week would give every team a bye, which would allow them a chance to be COVID-free heading into playoffs.
Week 16: This is the week where the fun will truly begin. Under the 24-team playoff format, all division winners in both conferences will be given a bye, so four NFC teams and four AFC teams will be off this week. The other 16 teams will play in a format that looks like this: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9.
Using last year’s standings, here’s what the first round of the NFC playoffs would have looked like:
12. Cardinals at 5. Seahawks
11. Buccaneers at 6. Vikings
10. Falcons at 7. Rams
9. Cowboys at 8. Bears
BYE: 49ers, Packers, Saints, Eagles
All AFC games would be on Saturday and all NFC games would be on Sunday. The reason for this is because I’m adding a crazy wrinkle: The top three teams in each conference would get to PICK THEIR OPPONENT for the next round of the playoffs. MLB proposed a similar rule for their playoffs this year, but they didn’t go through with it.
Under this format, after the AFC games are played on Saturday, the four AFC teams that received a bye would get to pick their opponent on Sunday morning in a TV special. The ratings for this would likely be huge and it would give networks a chance to make up for lost games. In the NFC, the playoff picking special would take place on Monday night.
In the scenario above, if all the home teams won, that would leave the Seahawks, Vikings, Rams and Bears. The 49ers would then get to pick their opponent out of those four teams. The Packers would then pick from the three teams leftover, followed by the Saints, who would have two choices. The Eagles would then be stuck playing the team that didn’t get picked.
Week 17 (Jan. 2-4): Welcome to the second round of playoffs. The top four seeds in each conference will play in this round after getting two weeks off. There would be a total of eight playoff games with the four AFC games played on Jan. 2 and the four NFC games played on Jan. 3. This week will also feature the semifinals of the draft playoff, with both games being played in a double-header on Monday night.
Week 18 (Jan. 9-10): This would usually be wild-card weekend, but this year it’s basically the divisional round, because there are eight teams left with four AFC teams still alive and four NFC teams still in it. The two AFC games would be played on Saturday while the two NFC games would be played on Sunday.
Week 19 (Jan. 16-17): This would be a huge day on the calendar and that’s because it would be the draft playoff championship. The winner of this game would get the No. 1 overall pick with the loser getting the second pick. This game could have been played in Week 18, but both teams were given a bye so they would have ample time to recover from any potential COVID cases.
Also, as part of the baked-in contingency plan, any playoff game from Week 18 that had to be postponed due to COVID can be rescheduled for Week 19.
Week 20 (Jan. 24): AFC and NFC Championship. This one is self-explanatory. The four winning teams from Week 18 will play each other on Championship Sunday. One thing to note is that all four teams will have had a bye in Week 19 going into this game, which will give them time to recover from any positive COVID-19 tests.
Super Bowl (Feb. 7): After the wildest regular season in NFL history, the Super Bowl will finally be played on Feb. 7 in a game that will be televised on CBS.
And there you have it: The NFL season ends with 222 games being played, a draft tournament that ends with someone winning the top overall pick and a primetime TV special where eight teams get to pick their playoff opponent. It’s the NFL season you never knew you wanted.
Emergency plan
If the NFL decides that it does need a bubble for the entire season, they could set one up for each conference. The NFC would be sent to Southern California, where the 16 teams in the conference would have access to multiple NFL-caliber stadiums. Within 300 miles of Los Angeles, you conceivably have six stadiums to use, including SoFi Stadium, Allegiant Stadium, the Rose Bowl, the Coliseum, Dignity Healthy Sports Park (the soccer stadium the Chargers played in) and the Chargers old stadium in San Diego.
As for the AFC, that conference would be sent to Indianapolis. Indy has proven year after year at the combine that it has the structure to create a bubble containing thousands of people. The other advantage of Indy is that it has seven NFL-caliber stadiums within a 300-mile bus ride (Indianapolis, Nashville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit).
Without endorsing the rest of it, we don’t like Weeks 8-14 where for example, the 7-9 Broncos (2nd in the 2019 AFC West) get a brutal schedule while the 7-9 Raiders (3rd in the AFC West) get the easy schedule. Same with the 7-9 Falcons getting the other NFC 1-2s while the 7-9 Buccaneers get the 3-4s.
Also for his Week 8-14 bubble concept, three of his four bubbles are in the West (and the other is in Kansas City) which would either mean 10 a.m. kickoffs or lots of AFC early games.
We think the bubbles should be picked, as the NFL did, based on facilities and accomodations.
The I-4 corridor in Florida would make sense with three NFL stadiums plus Orlando’s largely vacant whatever they call the Citrus Bowl now (Tropicana Field has held football, plus college stadiums if possible). Practice fields at IMG Academy and Disney World, plenty of resort accommodations looking for business in the fall. Plus government unafraid of staying open.
Atlanta would have up to four stadiums if Georgia Tech and baseball’s Truist Field could be used to go with the Dome and Turner Field (now home to Georgia State football). Plus Nashville, Birmingham and Charlotte busable (Clemson, UGa, Tuscaloosa also if colleges are in play).
We kind of like the idea of the eight non-playoff teams competing for the number one pick.
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