Last week, the NFL announced that a majority of club personnel — 51 percent — is made up of people of color and/or women for the first time in league history. Additionally, 57 percent of employees at the league office are people of color and/or women, according to the league. When asked Wednesday whether the NFL is in a good spot in terms of diversity, Goodell passed on a chance to take a victory lap.

“No, I don’t think we’ve ever done enough,” Goodell said at the league’s December meeting. “DEI and the efforts to make our league more diverse will only make our league better. We saw it today and we saw it the last couple (of) days (at the NFL Front Office Accelerator with the) incredible talent and incredible people who are making their league better today and will continue to grow and move into positions as general managers. … We see that talent across the league. I think that’s fundamental to who we are, and I think we all see the benefits of that and the importance of doing that right.”

On the executive side, the NFL recently set league records with seven full-time diverse team presidents and nine full-time diverse general managers. Five of those team presidents are Black and all of those GMs are Black. When it comes to head coaches, though, there are only six full-time head coaches of color. And, for the fifth consecutive season, only three of those are Black.

“If I knew the answer, that would fix it,” Goodell said when asked about the discrepancy between the number of Black executives and the number of Black head coaches. “We have to do … the kinds of things we’re doing that I think are producing results in other areas.

“I’m confident that the clubs are focused on this and the processes that we’re all putting in place, both at the club level and the league program, will bear fruit. The opportunities will come to the people who deserve that.”

MINNESOTA

WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON says he is in for Saturday in Cincinnati.  Alec Lewis of The Athletic:

Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson said that he plans to play in Saturday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals when speaking to reporters Wednesday.

Jefferson is day to day after suffering a chest injury in Sunday’s win against the Las Vegas Raiders. He went to the locker room in the second quarter of the game after taking a hard hit to the torso from Raiders safety Marcus Epps. Jefferson was then ruled out for the game and taken to a local hospital out of precaution, the Vikings said. He described the injury as “pretty much like a bruise, an inner bruise” Wednesday.

“It didn’t really hurt to breathe fully or move. So, it was all good signs after the game,” he said.

Jefferson was playing in his first game since suffering a hamstring injury in Week 5 and had two catches for 27 yards before the injury.

Coach Kevin O’Connell said Monday that the star receiver had “a good chance of playing” Saturday versus the Bengals.

The 24-year-old led the NFL last season in receptions with 128 on the season for 1,809 yards and nine touchdowns. He won NFL Offensive Player of the Year and was a finalist for MVP.

What will Jefferson’s presence mean for the Vikings’ offense?

It certainly cannot hurt. The Vikings have had one of the worst offenses in football over their last three games. They rank 22nd in the NFL in points per drive over that span. Josh Dobbs, who had quarterbacked the Vikings effectively from Week 9-10, was benched Sunday. Right tackle Brian O’Neill and running back Alexander Mattison suffered ankle injuries. Minnesota’s offense has essentially been depleted. Rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson had been asked to carry the offense, which was a tall task.

Jefferson’s playmaking ability will provide quarterback Nick Mullens a safety valve. It’ll also force the Bengals’ defense to allocate defenders in coverage in a way that should help the Vikings’ rushing attack regardless of who’s doing the running. —

– – –

This from Kurt Warner in defense of benched QB JOSH DOBBS:

@kurt13warner

Just watched @Vikings  tape & I feel for @josh_dobbs1 being benched… so important to watch each play & not just see the results… I feel he played well, dropped passes all over, some things didn’t work & of coursed missed some, but far from a “benching” performance IMO!

Feel free to watch it with Warner on YouTube here.

DALLAS

This from Scott Kacsmar:

@ScottKacsmar

#NFL Highest scoring differential since 2021 (regular season only)

1. Cowboys +485

2. Bills +467

3. 49ers +410

4. Chiefs +307

5. Eagles +213

Cowboys and Bills have a lot in common between being elite on both sides of the ball for multiple years, and still not getting to a SB.

WASHINGTON

Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com discuss the fates of Ron Rivera and OC Eric Bienemy:

Fowler: This one is a relatively easy call, Dan. The expectation here is Rivera will be out after four seasons, and front-office changes could be on the way, too. I’m told Rivera is at peace with his Washington tenure, and that people in the building are openly bracing for major changes. Owner Josh Harris has developed a good working relationship with Rivera since taking over the franchise in June, but four consecutive losing seasons is next to impossible for a coach to survive, even one with Rivera’s stature. Harris will most likely be looking for a sustainable partnership built on quality leadership, and his track record as owner of the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils suggests he’ll value a blend of analytics and on-field acumen in a coach-general manager pairing.

Graziano: Yeah, my understanding is Rivera will get to coach out the season, but then changes are likely, with him and GM Martin Mayhew both in danger of being replaced by new ownership. What I’m curious about here is whether offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy can get a serious look, be it in Washington or with one of these other potential openings. Are you hearing anything on Bieniemy and his chances this cycle? It seems the way Sam Howell has played in his first season as a starting QB is a point in Bieniemy’s favor.

Fowler: Well, I do expect Bieniemy to get interviews once again. He has shown he can help a young quarterback develop and design an offense independent of Chiefs coach Andy Reid. Those are positives. His unapologetic coaching style definitely isn’t for everyone, but Washington also needed a culture shakeup, and Bieniemy tried to provide that. Perhaps he gets a look in Washington as the in-house candidate. Overall, he’ll be a player in the carousel, but whether he’s a major factor at this point remains in question.

ATLANTA

How hot is the seat under Coach Arthur Smith?  Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com:

It seems like a job could open in this division, depending on how things play out. The sense I get after asking around is that Arthur Smith is safe in Atlanta, barring a late-season collapse.

LAS VEGAS

Apparently the Raiders are sticking with struggling rookie QB AIDAN O’CONNELL.  Vic Tafur of The Athletic:

Aidan O’Connell took the podium on Tuesday afternoon, a weekly appearance that signifies the Las Vegas Raiders rookie quarterback will be starting again against the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night.

Raiders coach Antonio Pierce had said Monday that he was still evaluating whether to make a change at quarterback and other positions after the team’s third straight loss, a brutal 3-0 ordeal to the Minnesota Vikings. But the fact that the Raiders are on a short week seems to have been a factor in sticking with O’Connell over going back to veteran Jimmy Garoppolo.

Could Garoppolo return for the Christmas Day game against the Kansas City Chiefs if O’Connell doesn’t greatly improve on last Sunday’s eight-first-downs performance? Very likely.

It depends on the rookie.

In six starts and one relief appearance, O’Connell, 25, is 134-for-210 for 1,365 yards, four touchdowns, seven interceptions and 6.5 yards per attempt. Garoppolo, who was coming off foot surgery, club-sandwiched six starts between missing a game for a concussion and missing one due to a back injury. He was 110-of-168 for 1,205 yards, seven touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 7.2 YPA before he was benched after coach Josh McDaniels was fired.

Garoppolo, 32, is set to count for more than $28 million against the cap next season even if the Raiders cut him after this season. (They do have the option of a post-June 1 cut to drop the number, but that would spread his dead cap hit into 2025.) Garoppolo’s $11.25 million roster bonus for next season is already guaranteed, but if he were to play this season and get injured again, the Raiders would be at risk of owing him next season’s $11.25 million base salary. That’s guaranteed only for injury but becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the roster March 18, 2024 — the fifth day of the new league year — or if he can’t pass a physical on that date.

It would be nice to know if interim general manager Champ Kelly was open to the possibility of Garoppolo being healthier now and winning back the starting job for the last three games and beyond. Or if owner Mark Davis groups Garoppolo with McDaniels and fired general manager Dave Ziegler as former New England Patriots mistakes. But neither one is going to share that information, especially before another O’Connell start.

O’Connell’s three straight losses have come against very strong defenses in the Miami Dolphins, Chiefs and Vikings. Add in the game before that, a 16-12 win over the New York Jets, and the Raiders have scored 46 points in the last four games. But while those four teams are all in the top 10 in the NFL in yards allowed per game, the Chargers are 29th.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

No WR KEENAN ALLEN tonight for the Chargers.  Kris Rhim of ESPN.com:

The Chargers ruled out wide receiver Keenan Allen on Wednesday for Thursday night’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders because of a heel injury.

Allen’s injury comes at an inopportune time for the Chargers, who head into this game with backup quarterback Easton Stick making his first NFL start. The Chargers’ starting quarterback, Justin Herbert, is out for the season with a broken right index finger.

“He provides that middle of the field target, or, ‘Hey, if he’s playing outside, I can trust it,'” coach Brandon Staley said Monday of the importance of Stick having Allen.

Allen is having his best season. Last week, he set the Chargers single-season record for catches with 108. He leads the NFL in receptions and is fourth in yards.

Helping the Chargers will be the return of receiver Joshua Palmer, who was on injured reserve with a knee sprain since Week 9. Palmer had five catches for 133 yards in Week 7 against the Kansas City Chiefs before suffering the injury in Week 8.

CINCINNATI

WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON is good to go for the Vikings against the Bengals – and his LSU teammate WR Ja’MARR CHASE also is ready for Saturday’s showdown per Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase missed practice on Tuesday with an ankle injury that he suffered on Sunday against the Colts. On Wednesday, Chase returned to practice, on a limited basis.

He was not limited in his assessment of his ability to play on Saturday against the Vikings.

“I’m going,” Chase told reporters, via Ben Bay of ESPN.com. “100 percent.”

Chase added that he felt no discomfort during practice on Wednesday. He was spotted changing cleats during the stretching period. He explained that he was simply breaking in a new pair.

In 13 games during the 2023 season, Chase has 89 catches (already a career high) for 1,092 yards and seven touchdowns.

PITTSBURGH

Shots fired from former QB Ben Roethlisberger.  Callie Lawson-Freeman of YahooSports.com:

Ben Roethlisberger is no stranger to criticizing his longtime team in his retirement. Following the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 21-18 loss to the New England Patriots on Thursday, the two-time Super Bowl champion didn’t hold back.

“Maybe the tradition of the Pittsburgh Steelers is done,” he said in an episode of his podcast, “Footbahlin with Ben Roethlisberger,” published Monday.

The 41-year-old took issue with multiple aspects of the team’s Week 14 loss. He started by picking apart the second half, which saw the team attempt to rally without a full host of timeouts.

Before Roethlisberger retired in 2022, he played for Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin from 2007 to 2021. But Tomlin’s past with Roethlisberger didn’t prevent the former quarterback from targeting him.

“You can’t afford in the second half of games to burn silly timeouts and to not have them late in the game,” Roethlisberger said. “To me, that’s bad coaching.”

He went on to offer his perspective on how the game should’ve been managed:

“There’s some feel you have to have in those situations because timeouts can be so valuable, as we saw in this game,” he said. “If we have one more timeout there, we get a completion, we can work the middle of the field, and all you got to do is give Boz [Chris Boswell] a 60-yard chance. Give him a chance, and he’ll tie the game. I like my chances in overtime because they scored all their points early, and the momentum had shifted.”

For Roethlisberger, the Steelers’ current position isn’t a familiar one. He never experienced a losing campaign during his 18 seasons with Pittsburgh, appearing in three Super Bowls. The current Steelers are 7-6 after last week’s loss, which followed a defeat to the Arizona Cardinals.

Amid difficulties on offense, Pittsburgh’s roster has offered plenty of verbal and physical displays of frustration — on and off the field. Roethlisberger seems to think the issue comes down to a lack of leadership in the locker room.

“Who is grabbing someone by the face mask and saying, ‘That’s not what we do’?” Roethlisberger asked. “Is that happening? Yes, you have guys on defense doing it, but you need guys on other sides of the ball doing it. You need someone to stand up in that room, on offense, and be like, hey, this isn’t what it means to wear the black and gold.”

All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has been vocal about the Steelers’ shortcomings this season. Before calling on his teammates to “look in the mirror” after the loss to the Patriots, he reportedly got into a heated argument with Diontae Johnson after a loss to the Cleveland Browns. Johnson was later forced to address his visible lack of effort during a win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Mike Tomlin admitted Monday that wide receiver George Pickens’ visible frustration on the field has become “a problem.” Last month, running back Najee Harris vented about the offense, saying, “There’s a lot of stuff that goes around that you guys don’t see. I’m at a point where I’m just tired of this s***.”

“It just feels like that’s something that’s been lost on this team,” Roethlisberger said on the podcast. “I’ve felt that certain guys on the team aren’t in it for the team, they’re in it for themselves. Well, now some of the guys on the team are saying the same thing.”

Roethlisberger called younger Steelers players “coddled” last season, an assertion he walked back after defensive tackle Cam Heyward took offense. It’s possible that Roethlisberger’s most recent comments will garner a similar reaction.

TENNESSEE

Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com wonder about the fate of Coach Mike Vrabel:

Here’s a wild card for you, Dan: What about a team trading for Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel? He’s going on two consecutive down seasons but would be coveted on the open market. New England would make a lot of sense if it doesn’t go with Mayo.

Graziano: I think Vrabel is an interesting one to watch. He certainly delivered a strong résumé tape Monday Night with that victory over the Dolphins. He was in New England earlier this season during Tennessee’s bye week to be inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame for his contributions as a player, and I would not be at all shocked if succeeding Belichick were of interest to him. To be clear, I have no inside information to indicate that it is, or that he wants to leave Tennessee. The Titans want to keep him, and they crave stability with a new stadium project on the horizon. Vrabel is extremely well regarded in coaching circles, and if he ever wanted to try his hand with another organization, he would be in high demand.

Fowler: The sense is Vrabel is certainly welcome back in Tennessee, where it looks like he has a promising quarterback in Will Levis. The roster needs work, and general manager Ran Carthon is finishing his first year at the helm. Will he be building the franchise’s long-term vision in Vrabel’s image? We need more time to crystallize that answer.

And what would Vrabel think about his alma mater Ohio State if Ryan Day were to bolt?  And what would Ohio State think?

NEW ENGLAND

Would Bill Belichick acquiesce to being traded by the Krafts?  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

If, as it appears, Patriots owner Robert Kraft and Patriots coach Bill Belichick are careening toward a divorce after 24 years together, what will it look like?

Many believe that Kraft is hoping to land the plane in a way that allows him to secure compensation from whoever employs Belichick next, while also allowing the two sides to separate in an elegant way. It’s an admirable goal. But there’s only one issue with that.

Why would Belichick go along with it?

He has no reason to. He gains nothing. He’s under contract for another year, at a number undoubtedly north of $20 million. If he sticks around and coaches the team, he’ll earn the money and, after the 2024 season ends, become a free agent.

If he digs in his heels, like Costanza at Play Now, Belichick either gets all the money followed by a one-way ticket to free agency or he gets his ticket to free agency now, if he’s fired. In contrast, if he goes along with a plan that positions the Patriots for compensation, Belichick gains nothing.

He actually loses something under that scenario. Whatever his next team gives up by way of compensation to his old team will make it harder for his new team.

Given the reporting from Monday that Kraft decided to make a change after the Patriots lost to the Colts in Germany, Belichick has even more reason to not play along. Someone blabbed, intentionally or accidentally, while Belichick still had work to do. It won’t do anything to get Belichick to do something he’s not required to do.

And he’s not required to go along with a mutual parting that reserves for the Patriots the right to get something from his next team.

In a year featuring a scarcity of victories for Belichick, this could be his easiest one yet. To secure it, do the one thing that every human being on the planet is capable of doing.

Not one damn thing.

THIS AND THAT

TO DRAFT A QB?

Charles McDonald of YahooSports.com on which teams should invest in a rookie QB:

There’s one month left of the 2023 NFL regular season. Teams are who they are at this point, and now it’s time to determine how serious their flaws are as the postseason projections begin and clubs prepare for 2024. Before we dive into a verifiably good team that’s starting to show it might not be exactly where it needs to be yet (ahem, Detroit), let’s check in on the tumult over a much-talked about report involving the New England Patriots’ Bill Belichick and what it might mean for the NFL Draft.

This QB class could accelerate Patriots’ post-Bill Belichick reboot — as well as other teams’

Quarterbacks, quarterbacks, quarterbacks. It’s the position that makes the world go round. The beauty of the late part of the season is that it’s impossible to hide from what has been produced the past three months. And what has been produced by the Patriots this season has been terrible. New England seems all but done with Mac Jones, and Bailey Zappe certainly isn’t the answer.

Now, there’s a report from NBC Sports Boston’s Tom Curran that New England team owner Robert Kraft has already made the decision to move on from head coach Bill Belichick after this season. If that’s the case, then the Patriots, who currently own the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, could be in position to secure a big piece of their reboot come April.

This class has two bona fide franchise quarterbacks in USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye, with intriguing options such as Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and Washington star Michael Penix Jr. as consolation prizes.

The Patriots have a ton of work to do to improve the overall quality of their roster, but they could become a more attractive destination for their next head coach — again, if they do, in fact, move on from Belichick — if they’re in position to select Williams or Maye and lock in the sport’s most important position.

Quarterback issues tend to be the most glaring because they normally define what is possible for an offense in any given season. It’s easy to spot when a quarterback is being let down by his surrounding talent or is an anchor on an otherwise quality team — especially with four games left in the regular season. The Patriots need to be real with themselves about how dire their situation is heading into the offseason.

The position is going through a transition leaguewide right now, too, making it difficult for teams to find meaningful upgrades due to a lack of options. A handful of other teams should, at the very least, consider drafting a guy or making a play to move up for one.

Just draft a quarterback, man: Bears, Raiders

This one is easy. The Bears own the Panthers’ first-round draft pick, which seems all but a lock to be the first overall pick next year. Moving on from Justin Fields after how he has played this year would sting, but it would also be beneficial to restart the rookie contract timer while getting value for Fields in a trade.

The Raiders are in a similar boat as far as their talent goes, but they’re a few picks away from the top of the draft as things currently stand. A trade up or taking another quarterback with their high first-round pick has to be what they’ll do as they hire yet another head coach.

Should consider drafting a quarterback: Commanders, Titans, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, Steelers

Now, just about every single one of these teams could stand to upgrade their QB talent, but either it might be too expensive to trade up or they can stand pat for a year and wait it out. The Titans and Commanders might want to see what Will Levis and Sam Howell have in store for 2024. Desmond Ridder could find himself in the same boat with the Falcons if he closes out the season with a bang, but they’re also clearly at a point where they’re underachieving based on the amount of talent they have on offense.

The Steelers should move heaven and earth to get a competent quarterback under center. They could make a real play toward the top of the AFC North in 2024 if they don’t get complacent with the combo of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.

New Orleans certainly needs to move on from Derek Carr, but his contract and the team’s salary-cap situation will probably prevent that. Still, the Saints should play around with the idea of getting a quarterback in the draft because they need an upgrade if they’re going to compete in the near future as they figure out what the rest of the roster will look like because the bill has come due for all their years of restructuring contracts.

Priced out: Giants, Jets

Based on where they’re drafting or projected to be drafting, the Giants and Jets taking quarterbacks makes sense. Aaron Rodgers is a short-term play for the Jets, and Daniel Jones probably should be a short-term play for the Giants. However, both quarterbacks are too expensive to move on from, and it’s not unreasonable to expect these teams to bounce back in 2024 based on the cores they’ve built. They’re in better shape than the Saints, so they can pass here and take another elite talent.

MVP RACE

Scott Kacsmar says the MVP race is down to QBs BROCK PURDY and DAK PRESCOTT:

Most Valuable Player (MVP)

The leaders in odds from FanDuel:

Dak Prescott, Cowboys (+155)

Brock Purdy, 49ers (+165)

Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+550)

Jalen Hurts, Eagles (+1000)

Josh Allen, Bills (+1400)

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+1600)

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (+2000)

This MVP race has been such a volatile mess this season that none of the top three candidates from Week 9 (Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa) are in the top three odds going into Week 15.

Maybe more shocking is that the front-runners, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy, were not among the top seven candidates with odds better than +2200 back in Week 9. The good news is the race looks to be stabilizing itself with a quarterback with great statistics on a great team likely to win it again.

We can probably put the Jalen Hurts’ MVP case to rest after back-to-back losses of 20 points to the 49ers and Cowboys. No quarterback has ever won MVP in a season where they lost back-to-back games by 20 points, and Hurts does not have the numbers this year (ranked 13th in passing success rate and 8th in QBR).

Likewise, Lamar Jackson is having a fine season for the top-seeded Ravens, but the numbers are not quite there for an MVP season like he had in 2019. Josh Allen could also be a darkhorse if these other quarterbacks falter and he finishes hot to lead Buffalo to the playoffs, but his turnovers earlier in the season are likely going to do him in for both the narrative and the record itself should Buffalo not rally.

The repeat MVP for Patrick Mahomes likely ended with the back-to-back losses to the Packers and Bills as seemingly every Kansas City loss this year ends with Mahomes throwing incomplete on 4th-and-forever. Also, the Chiefs are barely hanging onto No. 8 in offensive points per drive, and every MVP winner since 1994 played on an offense that ranked at least No. 5 in that category.

The Cowboys and 49ers are on top in points per drive this year, and not surprisingly it is Purdy (74.7) barely edging out Prescott (74.6) for the lead in QBR. Eleven of the 15 quarterbacks to win MVP since 2007 finished No. 1 in QBR.

But choosing between Purdy and Prescott is going to spark a lot of heated debate. Yeah, here we go…

For my money, Prescott is the more deserving candidate going into Week 15. He is more responsible for his offense’s success as Purdy has feasted on play-action looks and YAC from his receivers in Kyle Shanahan’s system. Purdy ranks No. 1 in YAC/completion (6.9) while Prescott is No. 25 (4.8), so there is no denying which quarterback benefits more from his receivers doing great things after the catch with the way Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle operate.

Prescott’s only major blemish this year was the 42-10 loss in San Francisco when he threw 3 interceptions while Purdy looked like a stud, which complicates the race here for Dak. But since that game, Prescott has been on fire with 23 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and we are no longer talking about the Cowboys struggling in the red zone as Dak has been money in this new offense called by coach Mike McCarthy.

Purdy’s blemish is the 3-game losing streak where the 49ers scored 17 points every week in games where Deebo and left tackle Trent Williams were mostly absent from with injuries. That looks bad for Purdy (and Kyle Shanahan) in that he couldn’t overcome an injury to one of his weapons and best lineman, though you could argue he did enough to win the Cleveland game only to see a rookie kicker miss a 41-yard game-winning field goal. Purdy also had a concussion in the Minnesota loss, then his defense was a letdown in the 31-17 loss to the Bengals where he had a few more interceptions.

But Purdy has no doubt had some amazing highs this year with 8 touchdown passes in the dominant wins over the Cowboys and Eagles. He was 20-of-21 passing in a nearly perfect game against Arizona. He had a perfect 158.3 passer rating against Tampa Bay. He threw for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns in Jacksonville, another win over a winning team (something Dallas has in short supply this year).

Purdy leads the NFL in QBR (74.7), passer rating (116.9), adjusted net yards per attempt (9.33), completion percentage (70.2%), touchdown pass percentage (7.0%), yards per attempt (9.9, a staggering number), and yards per completion (14.1). That would be an incredible season for any quarterback, let alone one in his second season at 24 years old.

Yet there seems to be a strong backlash against Purdy from the people who view Kyle Shanahan as a demigod, who has helped Matt Ryan to an MVP (2016 Falcons), and Jimmy Garoppolo often had nice numbers in San Francisco. Garoppolo was benched by the Raiders earlier this year for Aidan O’Connell.

But this fascination with Shanahan’s system to the point of belittling Purdy, especially from people who would hype up the way late-round picks Tom Brady and Joe Montana played quarterback, seems a bit contradictory. You don’t have to think Purdy is the best quarterback or even vote him for MVP, but the idea that any quarterback could put together a season like this or not give him any credit for orchestrating this attack so well is foolish.

I respect Purdy’s season. I just believe Prescott is achieving similar highs in a way that is more about his play and value than what Purdy is doing in San Francisco. If these quarterbacks continue playing the way they have, Prescott will deserve it more since the Cowboys are on the road next against Buffalo and Miami before hosting Detroit and going to Washington. Winning a couple of road games against quality teams will help Prescott’s case since people have pointed out the Cowboys’ lack of wins over good teams.

But those difficult games coming up are why Purdy has a real shot to pull this off should Prescott falter. The 49ers have the Cardinals, Ravens, Commanders, and Rams left. That game with Baltimore is at home and should still be a tough one for Purdy where he could either slip up in prime time (it’s a Monday night game on Christmas) or take a commanding lead in MVP with a big performance against a top-ranked defense and current No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Judging this race right now is how you predict Dak will do in Buffalo and Miami the next two weeks, and how Purdy will perform at home against Baltimore. Maybe you think they’ll be great in each game, to which you should still believe Prescott, who leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes, will ultimately take home the award, one that no Dallas quarterback has ever won before.

If you think both quarterbacks falter in these big matchups, then that could open the door for Tyreek Hill (+2000) to win it as a wide receiver as he pursues 2,000 yards and is having an amazing year. We have more on Hill in the next section, but the odds still say that is a longshot. This is a quarterback-dominated award, but it would not be surprising to see Hill finish as a close runner-up.

In my view, Prescott should not have to win out to win this award. If he plays very well in Buffalo and Miami and they end up losing one of those games because the other quarterback, who is also an MVP candidate, has an outstanding game too, then that should not disqualify what Prescott is doing for Dallas.

But what Dak absolutely cannot do is have a poor game like he had against the 49ers in Week 5. If he does that once, he’s likely done for with MVP this year. But I think we are seeing Prescott at his peak, and the stigma against Purdy under Shanahan is strong enough that enough people will vote Prescott over him in the end for MVP.

Pick: Most Valuable Player – Dak Prescott (+155 at FanDuel)

2024 DRAFT

A Mock Draft of Matt Miller who thinks the Bears will take QB CALEB WILLIAMS with the top pick, moving on from QB JUSTIN FIELDS.  No trades in his Mock first round:

Let’s get started. Here are my first-round projections for April’s loaded draft.

1. Chicago Bears (via 1-12 CAR)

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The Bears have a tough decision to make at quarterback given how well Justin Fields has played since his return from a right thumb injury a month ago. But he has been inconsistent over three seasons, and Chicago would likely take a quarterback if it lands one of the top two selections in the draft. Williams being available makes it an easier call, too.

Williams is a big play waiting to happen, with 41 total touchdowns in 2023. His game combines great arm strength, mobility, poise and field vision to make him the best overall prospect in the class and a quarterback the Bears simply cannot afford to pass on for another year of Fields. Restarting the clock at the position — both in terms of salary and development timeline — now is crucial with Fields’ fifth-year option decision on deck.

2. New England Patriots (3-10)

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Much like Chicago, the Patriots need to start over at quarterback, especially because the entire organization could reset this offseason. Mac Jones’ fifth-year option decision is also coming this offseason, and after he was benched for Bailey Zappe, all signs point toward a new QB1 in New England for 2024.

Maye is a powerful thrower at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, with the arm talent to stretch the field vertically and the mobility to threaten on the ground. There are times his ball placement can be inconsistent, but his supporting cast at North Carolina did him few favors there. Maye — who is declaring for the draft — has the traits of a true franchise quarterback.

3. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

I believe the Cardinals will make the right decision here to build around quarterback Kyler Murray and draft an elite receiver prospect to be his running mate, rather than make a change under center. Murray has played well since returning from a torn ACL, and the Cards have receivers Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch both on expiring deals.

Harrison is a magician at 6-foot-4 with fantastic body control and the fastest hands of any receiver in the draft class. He has the smooth and effortless route running ability — plus the top-tier body control — to quickly become one of the best players at the position in the NFL. He’d be the 10th receiver to ever get picked this high, per ESPN Stats & Information research.

4. New York Giants (5-8)

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Is this too early for Daniels, even after his brilliant Heisman-winning 2023 season? Maybe, but teams will overdraft at quarterback in an effort to find the right player, and Daniels’ dual-threat ability and vertical passing traits are very intriguing. His 50 total touchdowns this season make him a first-round candidate, but it’s Daniels’ improvement in the pocket and the best deep ball in college football that will truly turn heads come draft time.

The Giants are invested financially in Daniel Jones, but his play simply hasn’t been good enough, and New York can move on via a trade. His 38.4 QBR ranks 25th in the NFL, and his season is over with a torn ACL. Daniels’ 95.7, meanwhile, leads the FBS. And sure, undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito has been a fun story, leading the Giants to three straight wins. But his QBR on the season? It’s even worse than Jones’ at 26.2.

5. Washington Commanders (4-9)

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

First-year starting quarterback Sam Howell has likely shown enough bright spots for the Commanders to build around him for at least one more season. But they can’t keep this current offensive line intact with Howell on track to set the single-season sacks taken record (58 in 13 games).

Fashanu is a smooth-moving left tackle who has allowed one sack all season at Penn State. The 20-year-old junior is still developing, but he has Laremy Tunsil-like potential.

6. Tennessee Titans (5-8)

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

An offensive playmaker is very much in play for the Titans here, but this is a team without a double-digit sack player on the current roster. Outside linebackers Harold Landry III (8.5) and Arden Key (5.0) are talented, but the chance to get the best defensive player in the entire draft should excite Tennessee. The Titans have many needs at premium positions, so the best player available approach makes sense, and they can then find a pass-catcher or left tackle on Day 2. Turner has nine sacks this season.

7. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Could the Raiders roll with Aidan O’Connell in 2024? Sure, but all signs right now point to them starting over at quarterback with a new regime in place, even after signing Jimmy Garoppolo in the 2023 offseason. McCarthy is instinctive, efficient and effective as a second-effort creator outside of the pocket. The Michigan scheme does him no favors in terms of statistics, but NFL scouts continue to tell me that McCarthy will be drafted earlier than expected.

With Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) and Quinn Ewers (Texas) expected to return to college for the 2024 season, McCarthy is the lone first-round-caliber passer remaining on my board. And if things play out this way, this would be the quickest that four QBs have come off the board in the common draft era (since 1967), per ESPN Stats & Information.

8. Chicago Bears (5-8)

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Bears have receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet, but with Darnell Mooney struggling to develop into a consistent threat and set to hit free agency, they could stand to add more options — especially if they are taking a rookie quarterback in Williams at No. 1. Nabers is the most explosive after-the-catch receiver in the draft — he averages 6.8 yards after the catch per reception — and I like to compare him to Stefon Diggs. You might wonder about a left tackle here, but I’m a believer in second-year player Braxton Jones, so Chicago would be wise to go receiver at No. 8.

9. New York Jets (5-8)

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

The Jets appear to be all-in on the return of Aaron Rodgers, fixing what ails them most in 2024. But if that’s the case, a major upgrade is needed along the offensive line. New York has allowed 55 sacks, third most in the NFL, and Zach Wilson & Co. have been pressured at the fifth-highest rate (36%).

Alt is a pro-ready starter on the left side with one sack allowed all season. Given the turnstile that has been the Jets’ left tackle position, upgrading via the early portion of the first round feels like a must after missing out on the top offensive tackles in the 2023 draft.

10. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Bowers is my No. 6 overall player, but I couldn’t find a value/need fit for him earlier than No. 10. Los Angeles wouldn’t complain. The Chargers could luck out and get an awesome middle-of-the-field target who has similarities to George Kittle as a route runner, pass-catcher and after-the-catch playmaker. Bowers has 26 receiving touchdowns in the past three seasons and would immediately give quarterback Justin Herbert a chain-mover.

11. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Falcons miss out on the top quarterbacks here and instead look to bolster the defense with my CB1. Arnold, a 6-foot-2 redshirt sophomore, has five interceptions in 2023 while showing a physicality rarely seen from young cornerbacks in the run game. He’s long and aggressive, and he has the ball skills to be a star opposite A.J. Terrell.

12. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)

Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

A powerful pass-rusher who can set the edge against the run is exactly what Seattle needs in a draft class weak at defensive tackle (another potential hole for the Seahawks). Verse can bounce inside or outside opponent offensive tackles at 260 pounds, and he plays very similar to Trey Hendrickson. Verse — who transferred from Albany before the 2022 season — has been on a hot streak and has nine sacks through the end of the regular season, showing he is getting better with more reps and experience.

13. New Orleans Saints (6-7)

Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

A quarterback of the future would be lovely here — Derek Carr has 13 touchdown passes to seven interceptions this season — but the value simply isn’t there. Instead, the Saints can get a top-flight running mate for Chris Olave. Coleman is a 6-foot-4 pass-catcher with enough explosive ability that FSU used him as its primary punt returner. The former prep basketball star stands out with the ball in his hands and when attacking defenses on 50-50 balls.

If New Orleans did want to add to the QB room, it could maybe look at Bo Nix (Oregon) or Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) as Day 2 options.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Diontae Johnson’s contract expires at the end of 2024, so there’s room for Pittsburgh to add a physical, downfield threat with elite after-the-catch ability to the depth chart. Odunze has been the WR1 at Washington for three seasons, catching 25 touchdowns in that time while proving himself to be one of the most physical wideouts in college football. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Odunze could pair with George Pickens to form a duo that would rival Cincinnati’s WR group in the AFC North.

15. Los Angeles Rams (6-7)

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Rams might have found a left tackle of the future with Alaric Jackson, but the right side has been an issue this season with Rob Havenstein manning the position. Guyton — a raw but highly mobile blocker — is my pick for who will be the position’s biggest riser during the pre-draft process. The former defensive lineman is still learning to play offensive tackle, but his agility in space as a run-blocker is fantastic, and his length in pass protection is ideal for a rookie starter.

16. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

The Colts could be looking at wide receiver if free agent Michael Pittman Jr. isn’t retained, but the front office will likely do all it can to keep him on the roster for young quarterback Anthony Richardson.

Instead, the Colts could look to the defense, where the secondary has been plagued by injuries and poor play. McKinstry entered this season as my top-ranked cornerback and then broke up six passes over 13 games while allowing a 32.1% completion percentage (tied for 16th-best in the country). The 6-foot-1, 195-pounder hasn’t recorded an interception this season but has quick feet in coverage and great length to lock down top wideouts.

17. Denver Broncos (7-6)

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

Denver has a set of budding stars in Pat Surtain II and Ja’Quan McMillian at corner, but since McMillian plays inside, it still needs an outside cover guy opposite Surtain. Rakestraw is long-armed at 6-foot and 188 pounds, and his technique, quickness and instincts are that of a starting NFL cornerback. Turn on the film from the LSU-Mizzou game back in October, and you’ll see Rakestraw get challenged just one time all day by the LSU passing offense.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)

Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

Free agency will be huge in truly determining the Bengals’ draft needs; wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are currently set to hit the open market. We’re operating here under the belief that at least one will be back in 2024. If it plays out that way, the Bengals can bypass receiver in this spot and grab the best interior defender in the class. Newton is slightly undersized at 6-foot-2 and 295 pounds, but he has a devastating first step and has used it to accumulate 16.5 sacks and 92 pressures over the past three seasons.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

Mike Evans is potentially hitting free agency in March, and even if the perennial 1,000-yard receiver returns, he will turn 31 years old in August. It’s time for Tampa Bay to invest in a younger top-tier pass-catcher, at least as long as one of the top four quarterbacks doesn’t slip to No. 19. Worthy is fast and elusive with big-play ability. He has scored 25 touchdowns for Texas during the past three seasons and is a blur with the ball in his hands.

20. Arizona Cardinals (via 7-6 HOU)

Kalen King, CB, Penn State

After adding Harrison at No. 3 to help boost the offense, I could see the Cardinals focusing on cornerback with their second first-rounder further down the board. King was rated higher by NFL scouts than former Penn State teammate Joey Porter Jr. (No. 33 in the 2023 draft), and while he isn’t as physical as Porter, he has better timing and ball skills. The Cardinals’ pass defense — which is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 26th in the NFL — would improve with the feisty 5-foot-11, 191-pounder lined up outside. King has three interceptions and 19 pass breakups over his career.

21. Green Bay Packers (6-7)

JC Latham, OT, Alabama

Since the Packers have a solid young offensive nucleus at quarterback, wide receiver and tight end, they can focus on the line in the draft. The Packers haven’t added a non-QB player on offense in Round 1 since 2011 (Derek Sherrod), but they could use some protection for Jordan Love. Latham is a massive blocker on the right side at 6-foot-6 and 360 pounds, and he moves exceptionally well up to the second level and in space. He’s powerful enough to handle NFL rushers, too, and has allowed just two sacks in his three years at Alabama.

22. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

The Vikings are desperate for a franchise quarterback but probably won’t be picking high enough to get a top passer in this class. Maybe they bring back Kirk Cousins? Maybe they sign someone else or address it further down the board? Either way, I like them adding a top-flight cornerback here at No. 22 if QB isn’t an option. People at Clemson say Wiggins is the fastest player on the Tigers’ roster, and he does it at 6-foot-2. He played his best football down the stretch of the 2023 regular season before declaring for the draft and has true CB1 traits.

23. Buffalo Bills (7-6)

Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

The Bills need to add an explosive playmaker, whether it be on offense or defense. And in this projection, the draft’s most productive pass-rusher is waiting for them at No. 23. Latu, who medically retired from football while at Washington and then transferred to UCLA in 2022, has posted 23.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Medicals will obviously be huge for his evaluation, but based on tape alone, Latu has top-10-pick upside. His game is similar to that of Jaelan Phillips, thanks to his size (6-foot-5, 265 pounds), length and first-step speed.

24. Houston Texans (via 8-5 CLE)

Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Will Anderson Jr., the Texans’ No. 3 selection back in April, has been amazing as a rookie, but the Texans need a consistent playmaker opposite him. The 255-pound Robinson doesn’t have the biggest build, but he is super explosive off the snap and used that quickness to grab 11.5 sacks over the past three seasons at Penn State before declaring for the draft. He isn’t a run-down defender yet, but his ability to get to the quarterback will help Houston’s defense immediately. The Texans rank 23rd in sack percentage, recording one on 6.1% of opponent dropbacks.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)

Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

The Jaguars have speed (Christian Kirk) and precision (Calvin Ridley) at wideout but lack power. That’s what Legette brings at 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds. The senior caught 73 passes for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns while outmuscling defensive backs on breaking routes and with the ball in his hands. The Jaguars appear set on the offensive line and could maybe add a pass-rusher, but Legette is too good of a value to pass up here.

26. Detroit Lions (9-4)

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

The Lions drafted a running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) and linebacker (Jack Campbell) in Round 1 back in April, but let’s get them back to adding premium positions with early picks with a talented wide receiver. Thomas can play opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown as a 6-foot-4 red-zone target. He has 60 catches — with 15 scores — while averaging 18 yards per reception this season, and he’d be a physical mismatch for Jared Goff and the offense.

27. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Another receiver? This makes it eight in Round 1, which would break the standing record of seven set in 2004. But this WR class is dominant, and the Chiefs obviously need one.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in dropped passes (29), and go-to tight end Travis Kelce is in his age-34 season. It’s time to upgrade the pass-catchers on the roster for Patrick Mahomes. Mitchell is a playmaker who moves the chains at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds. He also has 10 touchdowns on 51 catches (just one drop) this season and consistently comes up big in crucial moments for the Longhorns.

28. Dallas Cowboys (10-3)

JT Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio State

There isn’t a clear-cut need in Dallas right now. Maybe a WR2 makes sense, or maybe some more depth at cornerback, though this team looks pretty complete at the moment. But the potential to add another pass-rusher fits with how the Cowboys like to build their roster. Tuimoloau wasn’t overly productive at Ohio State — 10 sacks over three years — but he plays his best in big games, including four career sacks against Penn State last season. He’s a heavy-handed defensive end who also shows up against the run.

29. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)

Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

A Georgia defender to the Eagles? We’ve seen it before! And it seems to work well for Philly.

Lassiter isn’t the front-seven playmaker that GM Howie Roseman loves to draft in Round 1, but the secondary could use major upgrades considering that Darius Slay and James Bradberry will both be at least 31 years old come Week 1 of next season. The Eagles took Kelee Ringo in Round 4 last April and signed Eli Ricks and Josh Jobe as undrafted free agents over the past two years, but it’s time to invest in a premium prospect at the position. Lassiter has seven pass breakups this season and has allowed just nine receptions.

30. Miami Dolphins (9-4)

Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU

Do the Dolphins need a left tackle? Not yet — but Terron Armstead turns 33 next July, and there is a potential out in his contract following the 2024 season. For a roster with very few immediate needs, Miami can draft ahead, prepping Suamataia to be the future at left tackle. The BYU senior is the most active, physical left tackle I’ve studied this year, but he’s also really good in space in the run game and moves smoothly in pass protection. He’d be a great fit for the Dolphins’ scheme.

31. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

Chris Braswell, EDGE, Alabama

The Ravens are getting career-year production from Jadeveon Clowney at one edge position, but he’s playing on a one-year deal. Flipping the talent on the edge of the defense is always a focal point for this front office, and Braswell is tailor-made for the Ravens’ scheme at 6-foot-3 and 255 pounds. He has great power when setting the edge in the run game, and he has added eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss so far this season.

Braswell would be the 13th prospect taken on the defensive side of the ball in this scenario — we’ve only seen that few Day 1 defensive players 21 times in the common draft era, per ESPN Stats & Information.

32. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The right side of the 49ers’ offensive line has been a weakness this season in both run and passing situations, while right tackle Colton McKivitz has allowed nine sacks and has the team’s worst pass block win rate (88%). Normally, San Francisco might not find a solid OT picking at No. 32, but this class is deep. In fact, this would be the fifth time in common draft era history that at least six offensive tackles were taken in Round 1, per ESPN Stats & Information.

Fuaga is a powerful but agile run-blocker at 330 pounds, and since he already operates in a wide zone-running scheme at Oregon State, he would be a plug-and-play transition into the 49ers’ offense. Cornerback is definitely a potential consideration here, too, but Fuaga is too nice of a scheme fit and too big of a positional need to go any other direction.