The Daily Briefing Thursday, December 15, 2022

The NFL has been no stranger to controversial roughing the passer penalties this season, but the league could be on the verge of a seismic adjustment to officiating that play and others.

NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent told reporters on Wednesday at the December League Meeting that there will be a “healthy discussion” about making fouls such as roughing the passer reviewable — whether via a coaches’ challenge or via a league review.

Vincent added that no potential changes would be applied during the season, and it would be an offseason topic for the league’s competition committee with a potential vote during the Annual League Meeting next March. The penalty also could result in an automatic ejection for the defensive player, per Vincent.

“The officials have been very consistent and accurate, but they are human,” Vincent said. “That will be a healthy discussion [in] the offseason with the competition committee. … I’ll be looking forward to this discussion.”

Vincent stressed that roughing the passer calls are down significantly through Week 14 this season when compared to the 2021 season (121 in 2021 to 76 in 2022), but the application of the rule has not been without controversy this season.

Falcons defensive lineman Grady Jarrett was whistled for roughing Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady during a crucial play — and would-be third-down sack — in the fourth quarter of an eventual loss on Oct. 9. The next day, Chiefs defender Chris Jones was similarly flagged for roughing when he sacked Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.

In both instances, the game’s referee defended the call in an post-game pool report.

Most recently, Dolphins pass rusher Jaelan Phillips was penalized after he sacked Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert on third down during the third quarter of Miami’s loss on Sunday Night Football.

Vincent told reporters on Wednesday that he disagreed with the the call on Phillips, stressing that it was just his opinion.

“The question is how do we become more consistent,” Vincent said.

When pointed out that the automatic ejection of players for hits on defenseless players is similar in practice to college football’s controversial “targeting” rule, Vincent said that in his opinion it would be difficult to enforce and he is against a Sky Judge issuing penalties on defenders.

“I think chasing perfection is a dangerous place to go,” Vincent said.

ARIZONA

Jess Root of USA TODAY on a leave of absence for Cardinals GM Steve Keim:

The Arizona Cardinals are dealing with yet another setback this season. The team released a statement saying that general manager Steve Keim is taking a health-related leave of absence.

The team did not comment more on the situation, citing privacy and legal reasons.

Keim did not give his normal weekly interview last Friday on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM because he wasn’t feeling well.

Things have apparently gotten worse.

In the meantime, while Keim is away from the team, his duties will be carried out between vice president of player personnel Quentin Harris and vice president of pro personnel Adrian Wilson.

This has been one of the strangest calendar years for the Cardinals between the football on the field and things that have happened off of it.

Hopefully, Keim’s health issue is not too serious and he is capable of returning to work soon.

SEATTLE

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com re-examines the trade that sent QB RUSSELL WILSON to Denver (could also be in DENVER):

The trade: Denver sent first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, second-round picks in 2022 and 2023, a fifth-round selection in 2022 and a trio of players — tight end Noah Fant, defensive tackle Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock to Seattle. In exchange, the Broncos received quarterback Russell Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick.

The early returns: The Seahawks used the 2022 first-round pick from Denver on left tackle Charles Cross, who has been excellent as a rookie at a major position of need. The second-rounder went toward edge rusher Boye Mafe, who has two sacks on 329 defensive snaps. Seattle traded the fourth-round pick to the Chiefs for fifth- and seventh-round selections, which were used on linebacker Tyreke Smith and wideout Dareke Young. Smith is on injured reserve, while Young has played mostly on special teams.

The Broncos took defensive end Eyioma Uwazurike with the fourth-round selection from Seattle. He has played just 25 snaps on defense this season. As for Wilson, well, you know how that has gone.

Would the Seahawks make this trade again? LOL.

What were the Broncos thinking? They thought they were following in the Rams’ footsteps and landing a championship-caliber quarterback. Wilson is 34, and there’s some evidence he has become less mobile over the past two seasons, but the Broncos could have reasonably expected to land at least two years of him maintaining his prior level of play.

What has gone wrong for Denver? Owing to some combination of Wilson declining, injuries throughout the offense and an overmatched coaching staff, neither he nor the team lived up to expectations. I wrote about this at length two weeks ago and won’t belabor the point here.

On top of that, the Broncos have been unlucky. At 3-10, they have the point differential of a 5.8-win team. They’ve gone 3-8 in one-score games, including an 0-3 mark in overtime. They’ve been laid up by injuries on both sides of the ball, with the most recent one coming when Wilson was knocked out of Sunday’s game against the Chiefs in the fourth quarter. Denver’s defense has been legitimately excellent under coordinator Ejiro Evero, but it hasn’t been enough to carry Wilson and the offense over the line late in games.

Should the Broncos have seen this coming? I don’t think so. As I wrote about earlier this year, Wilson played very well after recovering from his finger injury in 2021. Health had also not been an issue; he had never missed a start before suffering what appeared to be a freak injury last season. Wilson suffered a partially torn hamstring and a concussion this season, the latter coming while scrambling for a critical first down in Week 14.

All that is on the field. If you want to argue the Broncos shouldn’t have invested in Wilson because of how he fit within the locker room, his attitude toward offensive football or his public persona, well, you deserve a pat on the back. Wilson has as a try-hard whose response to any criticism or obstacle is to try harder. The legacy of Wilson’s first season in Denver will be the injured quarterback doing high knees in the aisles of the team’s plane to London while his teammates slept. Stuff like that plays up as competitiveness from a gamer when a team is winning. When it’s losing, it reads as hapless comedy.

How did the Seahawks replace Wilson? At the time, it appeared they were acquiring Lock to be their new starting quarterback, given that he was the only experienced passer on their roster. Two months later, they brought back unrestricted free agent Geno Smith and gave him a chance to win the job from Lock in camp.

Smith has played brilliantly this season, and the Seahawks deserve credit for giving him an opportunity. Given that the organization reportedly was only willing to negotiate with the Broncos because it wanted Lock to replace Wilson, though, landing on Smith is less of a master plan than it might seem with hindsight. Fant and Harris have been steady contributors to the roster, but Lock, who is in the final year of his rookie contract, hasn’t played a single offensive snap.

What are the lessons to be learned from this deal? Even superstar quarterbacks don’t guarantee success, and it’s never a guarantee the picks traded away will land in the bottom of the first round. Wilson isn’t the only example of this. Remember that the Texans got a full season from Deshaun Watson in 2020 and still ended up finishing 4-12. As a result, they sent the No. 3 overall pick to the Dolphins, which eventually netted Miami another haul of picks (and players) from the 49ers.

The Texans could have kicked off their own rebuild with those selections, but after growing desperate at left tackle in the days before the 2019 season began, they sent two first-round picks to the Dolphins in a deal for Laremy Tunsil. This year, the Broncos might have found a solution by taking a look at and signing Smith, but after growing impatient from years with Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, and others under center, they sacrificed the future to try to win now.

This also should be an argument against teams with no track record of significant success going all-in for one player. It was one thing when a Rams team that had made perennial trips to the playoffs traded for Matthew Stafford, but the Broncos hadn’t posted a winning season in five seasons before acquiring Wilson.

If Denver had gotten the version of Wilson it expected and combined him with its great 2022 defense, it would be a Super Bowl contender. Trading away four premium picks, three players and handing Wilson a massive new contract prices the franchise in as being absolutely, positively certain it would get that version of Wilson this season. That sort of confidence — while understandable given Wilson’s track record — looks to have been too robust.

What will the Seahawks do with their pick? The thinking for the Seahawks likely starts with their feelings about Smith, who has struggled with turnovers during the past month after a blistering-hot start to the season. He turned the ball over just five times during Seattle’s first nine games of the season, but he has coughed up the ball seven times during the 1-3 stretch that has followed.

Smith could be a candidate for the franchise tag, which would net the longtime backup a cool $31.5 million if the projections from Over The Cap prove accurate. The Seahawks could try to ink him to a short-term extension similar to the one signed by Keenum with the Broncos after his stunning 2017 season with the Vikings. After adjusting for the rise in the salary cap, Smith would be looking at something in the ballpark of two years and $50 million.

Unless the Seahawks are willing to commit three years of guaranteed money to keep Smith around as their starter, they could very easily justify using their top-three pick on a quarterback of the future, who could sit behind Smith for some or all of 2023. Otherwise, given the issues they have up front, general manager John Schneider could use this pick on edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama) or defensive tackle Jalen Carter (Georgia). The Seahawks have their own first-rounder — ESPN’s FPI projects it to land at No. 19 — and could choose to take a quarterback later in Round 1.

The other alternative would be to target one of the teams desperate for a young quarterback and trade down for a haul. The Dolphins got three first-round picks from the 49ers when San Francisco moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 to grab Trey Lance in 2021; the price would probably be similar if Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer called up his old employers to move up from the No. 12 spot in the draft, where Carolina is projected to pick.

DENVER

The Broncos are practicing without protocoled QB RUSSELL WILSON. Jon Heath of USA TODAY:

The Denver Broncos returned to the practice field on Wednesday without quarterback Russell Wilson, who remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol.

“We’re going to do everything the way that the medical doctors say — the independent doctors,” coach Nathaniel Hackett said of Wilson’s status on Monday. “We’re going to do every single thing. His safety is by far the No. 1 most important thing. We’ll continually talk to him — and to everybody else — about that and make sure we do the right thing.”

Hackett was asked Monday if there’s a possibility that Wilson might not play this week even if he does clear the protocol.

“Right now, we’re just concerned for his safety,” the coach said. “We want to make sure that he’s healthy. We’ll take that day-by-day and continually talk to our medical team and to Russell.”

If Wilson does not play against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, Brett Rypien will start in his place.

Elsewhere on the injury front, outside linebacker Jacob Martin (knee) was placed on injured reserve, ending his season. Meanwhile, fellow pass rusher Randy Gregory (knee) returned to practice Wednesday, giving him a chance to play against the Arizona Cardinals later this week

KANSAS CITY

WR MECOLE HARDMAN could be back with the Chiefs this week.  Adam LaRose of USA TODAY:

The Chiefs have been shorthanded at the receiver position lately, but that could change soon. Mecole Hardman is returning to practice today, as noted (on Twitter) by ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

This opens Hardman’s 21-day window to be activated from IR. A return at some point in the near future would be expected, given the team’s previously stated hope that his time on the sidelines would not extend through the remainder of the regular season. Hardman has been out since Week 9 with an abdominal injury.

The former second-rounder has seen a career-high 53% snap share on offense this season, his fourth with the team. He has once again served as a complimentary pass-catcher within the Chiefs’ league-leading aerial attack, albeit one whose target totals had increased with each passing season. That trend will stop in 2022 due to his missed time, but with four touchdowns, the Georgia alum could have a chance at setting a new watermark from the six he scored as a rookie.

Any further production on offense this season – or, if called upon, on special teams where he first established himself early in his tenure – will of course be noteworthy as Hardman is a pending free agent. His career over the course of his rookie contract has been marked by a lack of a dominant, breakout campaign, but also an ability as a return man and vertical threat.

Hardman should once again step into a rotational role behind free agent signings JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who have each enjoyed productive seasons in 2022. With trade acquisition Kadarius Toney dealing with a lingering hamstring issue, his availability could remain a question mark down the stretch. Hardman will be a welcomed sight as Kansas City looks to earn the top seed in the AFC while getting healthy on offense.

– – –

Adam Teicher of ESPN.com on the greatness of TE TRAVIS KELCE:

Patrick Mahomes sat next to Travis Kelce on Sunday night as the Kansas City Chiefs returned home from their win in Denver over the Broncos. Mahomes congratulated his longtime tight end on a couple of statistical milestones he achieved in the game, but didn’t get much of a response.

“He was like, ‘Oh, yeah, man, yeah, it’s cool.’’’ Mahomes recalled. “All he’s worried about is winning. That’s what all the great players are worried about and the stats kind of come, but at the same time he’s trying to win a lot of football games.’’

Kelce’s first catch against the Broncos, a 37-yard reception from Mahomes in the first quarter, put him over 10,000 yards for his career. He joined Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Shannon Sharpe as the fifth tight end to hit that mark.

That same play also pushed Kelce’s total over 1,000 yards this season, the seventh straight season he’s done so. That extended a record for tight ends that he already owned.

Kelce after the game was as Mahomes suggested, more pleased about the Chiefs’ 14th consecutive win over the Broncos than his statistical achievements.

“To come here and get a win and be a part of the crowd that is the 10,000[-yard] crew . . . It’s unbelievable to come in and be a part of it,’’ Kelce said. “I’ve been very fortunate to have the coaches and players around me to be able to have as much success in the NFL as I’ve had.’’

Kelce as recently as a few weeks ago was on pace to set single-season records for catches, yards and touchdowns by a tight end. He’s cooled down since his 100-yard, three-touchdown game in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Chargers and wouldn’t set any records with his season pace. Kelce would, however, set personal bests for catches (106) and TDs (16), yet another reminder along with his recent statistical milestones of what he’s accomplished for so many years.

“It talks to his consistency,’’ Mahomes said. “Obviously he’s a great player. We know that and he’s had this great run. But if you look at his career, he’s just been consistently great every single year. That tight end position is hard. You take a beating. You’re blocking. You’re catching over the middle, taking hits and he just prepares himself the right way that he can be out there available for us every week.’’

LAS VEGAS

A clever strategy by the Raiders has been disallowed – during the season.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Raiders’ strategy of using a holder on kickoffs to improve hang time is no longer allowed.

The NFL has now reversed course and won’t allow holders to hold the ball on top of the tee, according to FootballZebras.com.

Raiders coach Josh McDaniels explained that the Raiders got the bright idea to have the ball placed on the top of the tee, rather than inside the tee, which puts the ball slightly higher off the ground and gives kicker Daniel Carlson the opportunity to get under the ball better and get more hang time on his kickoffs. McDaniels said the Raiders first got clarification from the NFL that a holder is allowed to hold the ball on the top of the tee, and the league confirmed that it’s legal.

“They clarified a rule a couple weeks ago, that you’re permitted to hold the ball on the top of the tee now, so we’ve got a good kicker, you can add hang time to the kick, and I think you saw Daniel use that to our advantage,” McDaniels said. “That’s the rules. They clarified it a couple weeks ago. If it helps us gain some type of advantage, we’ll try to do that.”

But after the league’s officiating department discussed the matter with the competition committee, the determination has been made that footballs can only be placed in the tee and not on the tee. Holders can still be used on kickoffs when wind might blow the ball off the tee, but not for the purpose of gaining the hang time advantage the Raiders were seeking.

CINCINNATI

QB JOE BURROW doesn’t think there is a direct correlation between his game and that of GOAT QB TOM BRADY.  Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com:

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow dislikes comparisons (“I like to be my player, my own person”), but they’re coming pretty quickly this week when it comes to Tom Terrific and Seamless Joe.

“I don’t really pay attention to it. He’s Tom and I’m Joe,” Burrow said after Wednesday’s practice.

“I really just think that I play the game my own way. I kind of have a little bit of everybody. I wouldn’t say there’s one thing I do the best. But I would say that I do everything with the best of them. I wouldn’t say I really have a glaring weakness.”

As part of that composition, Burrow thinks he shares three traits with Brady: “I have the quick release. I’ve become really efficient with my lower body, getting the ball out and seeing the defense.”

(Bengals C Ted Karras, a 4-year Patriot) is another good resource here.

“Tom is way taller. He’s bigger than you think. He goes about 6-6.” Karras said. “When he puts those moon boots on he’s about 6-8. That’s probably the biggest difference. They both throw an unbelievable ball. Very soft ball. Very knowledgeable of the defense. Tom’s got 25 years’ experience. Joe has all the ability to be a guy like Tom. You obviously need to win, though.”

Karras, born in 1993, says you can definitely tell that one guy was born in 1977 and the other guy was born three weeks before 1997.

“Tom’s a little more high strung than Joe,” Karras said of the huddle. “Which is fine. Different era. Different culture.

“They’re both superstar quarterbacks. With the access Joe allows to his teammates, and we had great rapport and great friendships (with Brady), but it was different because he is 20 years older. Not that we can take Joe to a dive bar, but you certainly couldn’t take Tom.”

THIS AND THAT

QB POWER RANKINGS AND TIERS

Just as we are curious as to where one should rank the Lions, winners of 5 of their last 6, we also wonder about the evaluation spot for QB JARED GOFF.  We think he should be somewhere around #10 this year.  Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com does a ranking each week, let’s see how he shakes them out:

Week 15 QB Power Rankings

1 Patrick Mahomes

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS QB

A few of his unnecessary risks made the Chiefs’ win over Denver tougher than it needed to be, but Mahomes still gets the most bang for his buck among all top QBs. No one makes acrobatic adjustments like he does, and Kansas City should be the No. 1 Super Bowl favorite as a result.

2 Jalen Hurts

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES QB

It’s not crazy to suggest Hurts belongs atop this list, because the reality is he should be the MVP front-runner in real life. He’s got 32 total TDs to Mahomes’ 35 but has been more accurate, with far fewer turnovers, as well as an unofficial RB1 in crunch time.

3 Joe Burrow

CINCINNATI BENGALS QB

The pieces around him keep shuffling as injuries dent the elite receiving corps, but his pinpoint precision has yet to fade. If anyone can challenge the firepower of the Chiefs or Bills deep in the AFC race, it’s Cincy chiefly because of Burrow’s poise from the pocket.

4  Josh Allen

BUFFALO BILLS QB

He’s behind Burrow just a smidge in terms of overall accuracy and efficiency. But make no mistake: Allen is the closest thing to Mahomes in terms of creating something out of nothing on a moment’s notice. His gunslinging still makes Buffalo a legit title contender.

5  Justin Herbert

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS QB

His season totals aren’t eye-popping thanks to an iffy, conservative start, but Herbert’s laser has taken center stage in recent weeks. If his supporting cast can stay healthy down the stretch, he might finally be able to test his arm in the postseason. (+1)

6  Geno Smith

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS QB

The decisive Comeback Player of the Year candidate has come back to earth a bit lately, pushing the ball into traffic. But it wouldn’t matter so much if Seattle actually had a defense. All in all, Smith is still on the rise as a distributor for their elite wideouts. (-1)

7  Kirk Cousins

MINNESOTA VIKINGS QB

The drop-off is here, if you can’t tell. Cousins has decidedly not been a top-10 QB for much of the year, but his resolve for a team allergic to easy wins is notable. He’s also been especially adept at finding Justin Jefferson whenever the time is right. (+2)

8  Trevor Lawrence

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS QB

It’s officially time to start building the 2023 hype in Jacksonville. Lawrence looks an awful lot like Justin Herbert when he’s on his game, and if/when he gets a fuller group of weapons, they should be able to seriously challenge for the AFC South title. (+4)

9  Justin Fields

CHICAGO BEARS QB

No, he is not polished throwing the ball, but he also doesn’t have a glorious setup. The thing keeping Fields in the top 10 is his Lamar Jackson-level athleticism, which is liable to change a game with a single scramble. (+4)

10  Jared Goff

DETROIT LIONS QB

Time to start giving this man some props. We all know he’s got limitations when under duress. But Goff has really settled in as Detroit’s found rhythm through the air, showcasing accurate deep-ball touch as the Lions fight for wild-card relevance. (+5)

11  Tua Tagovailoa

MIAMI DOLPHINS QB

The MVP chants are gone. Tua has still been markedly improved this year, and he’s reliable on designed mid-range darts. But we now have plenty of evidence he can be bottled up by making him play off-script, and Tyreek Hill has done so much heavy lifting when it comes to the deep shots. (-3)

12  Aaron Rodgers

GREEN BAY PACKERS QB

For all the rightful flak he’s gotten as part of the Packers’ banged-up, slumping, shuffling offense, Rodgers still has more TDs than all but seven QBs. The Christian Watson chemistry, in particular, makes Green Bay intriguing down the stretch. (-2)

13  Dak Prescott

DALLAS COWBOYS QB

While the Cowboys have generally been very explosive since Dak’s return from injury, the QB himself has endured more close calls through the air than you’d prefer. All the talent and experience is there, but the big-game spotlight looms. (-6)

14  Tom Brady

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS QB

The Buccaneers are a sinking ship, it seems, and Brady’s consistency is going down as a result. Even he doesn’t look comfortable taking shots downfield in this offense. He retains a top-15 slot, however, because with a steady setup, his confidence wouldn’t be in question. (-3)

15  Brock Purdy

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS QB

Obviously we don’t wanna oversell his entry (Brady remains ahead, despite Sunday’s results, because TB12 in San Francisco’s offense would surely look just as nice), but Purdy has done everything right in two games replacing Jimmy Garoppolo. He takes the little throws in front of him, he’s also willing to uncork it, and best of all, he already acts like a veteran. (+15)

16   Derek Carr

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS QB

The middle of the pack is perfect for Carr, who constantly toes the line between surprisingly competitive and frustratingly inconsistent. He and the Raiders are forever teasing a spicy playoff run, just never delivering in the end. (-2)

17   Daniel Jones

NEW YORK GIANTS QB

His legs are both the only thing keeping the Giants going and the only thing he can trust, considering the dearth of trusted weapons on the outside. Going into the offseason, we’re practically still at square one with his development. Ball protection has improved, but we still have no idea if he can adequately challenge through the air.

18  Ryan Tannehill

TENNESSEE TITANS QB

Not even a big day from Derrick Henry could rescue he and the Titans against the upstart Jaguars. You have to wonder whether Tennessee will pursue a true upgrade in 2023 now that Mike Vrabel is running the show as opposed to Jon Robinson. (-2)

19  Deshaun Watson

CLEVELAND BROWNS QB

It won’t be until 2023 at the earliest that we really get a feel for what Watson can do in this offense. Right now, the ex-Texans star is just shaking off rust as an expensive figurehead for Kevin Stefanski’s run-led unit. Jacoby Brissett, frankly, offers more at this juncture.

20  Taylor Heinicke

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS QB

Here begins the run on scrappy but replacement-level starters. His performance against the Giants on Sunday night may well determine whether we see another snap from Carson Wentz in a Commanders uniform.

21  Tyler Huntley

BALTIMORE RAVENS QB

He can move, which is about the only sure thing we can say right now as the speedy backup recovers from a concussion filling in for Lamar Jackson. If Huntley somehow can’t go in Week 15, Anthony Brown will take over again. (+1)

22  Sam Darnold

CAROLINA PANTHERS QB

Accuracy just isn’t his strong suit, but give the kid a bunch of credit, because his energy, and two-game run of protecting the ball, has aided Carolina’s feisty second-half performance. (+5)

23 Mac Jones

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS QB

Some of his most impassioned work comes while hollering at Matt Patricia on the sidelines. The short- and mid-range touch is still there, but his timing and confidence have each dipped during a sluggish year under new voices.

24   Mike White

NEW YORK JETS QB

You can say what you’d like about his ceiling as Zach Wilson’s replacement, but you cannot say he isn’t tough, enduring an absolute beating to keep the Jets in the mix against Buffalo. Odds are, New York still needs to prioritize QB this offseason. (-3)

25  Andy Dalton

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS QB

Among the backups thrust into QB1 roles this year, Dalton has some of the prettiest stats, and he actually flashed elite touch in his last outing against Tampa Bay. The issue is, he can’t be trusted to string together spot-free starts. (+1)

26  Baker Mayfield

LOS ANGELES RAMS QB

Talk about a comeback story. Mayfield sure looked like his best self coming off the bench to lead the Rams with barely a day to learn the playbook. How long can he live off pure adrenaline? It’d sure be fun if he keeps it up.

27 Colt McCoy

ARIZONA CARDINALS QB

The Cardinals are at least more consistent when he’s under center in place of Kyler Murray, but losing the latter for the year with a knee injury robs Arizona of pretty much any ability to extend and/or create explosive plays.

28  Matt Ryan

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS QB

Did you forget he’s still starting? We may be nearing the official end of the line for Ryan’s NFL career. Unless, of course, he sees light at the end of the tunnel in the form of, say, a 2023 opening in San Francisco. (+1)

29  Mitch Trubisky

PITTSBURGH STEELERS QB

Mason Rudolph could also be in play for the Steelers with Kenny Pickett battling a concussion. Either way, Pittsburgh needs its run game and defense now more than ever. Mike Tomlin’s famous streak of non-losing seasons depends on it.

30  Davis Mills

HOUSTON TEXANS QB

Whether it’s Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel or, heck, Dameon Pierce playing QB, the Texans are just trudging along toward another reset. At least the “D” has been feisty.

31 Desmond Ridder

ATLANTA FALCONS QB

The Falcons hope to open up their passing game by turning to the rookie over Marcus Mariota, but they’ll likely lose Mariota’s impact as a scrambler and designed runner.

32  Brett Rypien

DENVER BRONCOS QB

With Russell Wilson recovering from a scary head injury, the Broncos are about to take another step back after what might’ve been a step or two forward against the Chiefs.

In a similar vein, Mike Sando of The Athletic does a preseason “tiering” of QBs.  He revisits those rankings today – and quite frankly they are all shook up with people falling (Russell Wilson among others) and rising (Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence among others):

Geno Smith, Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield and Brock Purdy are the starting quarterbacks for NFC West teams in NFL Week 15.

Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and the since-injured Jimmy Garoppolo rank among the NFL’s top five in expected points added (EPA) per pass play.

Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson rank outside the top 20.

So, yeah, you could say some things have changed since 50 NFL coaches and evaluators stacked all the veteran starters for my 2022 Quarterback Tiers survey heading into the season. I checked in with some of the voters in recent weeks to get updated perspectives on some of the more interesting QBs.

Below you’ll find tier-by-tier discussion, with quarterbacks listed in the same tiers and order they were voted into before the season. Some would surely be higher or lower if voters were collected again, but in other cases, unexpected results on the field haven’t changed what coaches and evaluators thought entering the season. Their comments here are granted anonymity for competitive reasons and for their candor.

Tier 1

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

2022 Tier 1 QBs (Voted Before Season)

1 Aaron Rodgers       1.00

2 Patrick Mahomes   1.02

3 Tom Brady             1.16

4 Josh Allen              1.22

5 Justin Herbert        1.28

6 Joe Burrow            1.34

Rodgers, Brady and Justin Herbert aren’t producing like Tier 1 quarterbacks. Voters are largely blaming factors beyond the quarterbacks themselves.

Rodgers’ 13-game statistical totals this season are the worst of his 15-year starting career for yards per attempt and EPA per pass play.

“There is something going on there,” a defensive coordinator said. “Everything just looks different. Obviously, without Davante (Adams), it looks different. Even some of his throws look different and the picks he had this year, those are all things that were not happening in years past. He still is Tier 1. It’s just weird.”

It’s been so bad, the Packers’ expectation for scoring has, on average, diminished with every Rodgers pass play.

“I have to put Aaron Rodgers in Tier 1,” another voter said, “because he is not only calling let’s say 60 percent of the plays himself, but the first read, he is identifying as not there maybe another 25 percent of the time, and it’s not schemed up, and he is looking at the second and third progression and he’s then going to the third progression and he is making the play that never would have been there if anybody else was in his position, and it still looks bad.”

Rodgers’ diminished weaponry has been blamed for the Packers’ offensive decline. That could be obscuring another factor.

“I think a lot of it has to do with, in years past, they had (Nathaniel) Hackett and (Luke) Getsy staying until 11 p.m. to come up with ideas, and working with Aaron to help him scheme it up,” an offensive coach said. “They have had brain drain there, and go look at the roster. Their offensive coordinator is the offensive line coach. There are fewer people to help (Matt) LaFleur do all this stuff. That is why their offense looks like s—.”

For Brady, there are parallels between this season and his 2019 struggles with New England after Rob Gronkowski retired and the Patriots’ weaponry flatlined.

Tampa Bay has played without as many as four of its offensive linemen from last season. Gronkowski retired again. The coaching staff is different. Brady went through a divorce and was sued for promoting cryptocurrency. His “big-time throw” rate, as charted by Pro Football Reference, stands at 4.7 percent. That is down from last season and well down from his career-best 7.1 percent rate in 2020, but still tied with Patrick Mahomes for sixth-best this season, and much higher than it was in his final season with New England (3.3 percent).

In other words, Brady can still make the throws. He just isn’t going to overcome his current predicament, same as Rodgers in Green Bay. Does that make him Tier 2?

“He looks good, but he is the most emotional player ever — we have all seen him cry a thousand times — and it feels like going through the divorce was weighing on him, and he probably knew the FTX (cryptocurrency) lawsuit was coming,” a voter who competed against Brady in the AFC East said. “He has 37,000 other things going on, and he’s also designing an offense and trying to execute an offense without the linemen he had before.”

This voter said he thought Brady would be reborn next season, on a different team.

As for Herbert, we can point to injuries that claimed his left tackle and, at various points, his center and two starting receivers. There was also a rib injury. That’s not all. Multiple voters said they thought the Chargers had regressed from a scheme standpoint.

“Herbert looked way different to me this year, and I felt like it was a scheme thing,” a defensive coach said. “He wasn’t able to cut it loose and get downfield and do some of the things and use his arm talent. There was a lot of checkdown, there was a lot of getting skittish. Even when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were there, I felt they were not calling it or not letting him progress to that part of the read. Not what I would have expected in Year 3.”

The other Tier 1 quarterbacks are more straightforward to analyze. Voters who thought Allen risked the football too much for inclusion in Tier 1 can point to his seven interceptions since Week 8. Voters who had him in Tier 1 can point to everything else.

Tier 2

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

2022 Tier 2 QBs (Voted Before Season)

7 Matthew Stafford                1.68

8  Russell Wilson                  1.72

9  Deshaun Watson              1.88

10 Lamar Jackson                2.00

11 Dak Prescott                    2.10

11 Derek Carr                      2.10

13 Kyler Murray                   2.32

14 Matt Ryan                      2.46

Can we get a re-vote on Tier 2?

“That group is all jacked up,” an assistant GM said.

None of the eight quarterbacks in this tier is enjoying the kind of season he sought.

“The Kyler Murray one bothers me the most, and then Russell Wilson,” one voter said. “We now know it was Russell’s issues in Seattle, not the offensive coordinator or head coach. It is just so eminently clear. With Kyler, what we found out is he and the head coach don’t get along as much as we thought they might have. That is a recipe for disaster, just like it was for Tua (Tagovailoa) last season, and like it has been for Mac Jones this season. The face of your organization needs to be on the same page as the play caller and/or head coach, and we don’t have that in Arizona.”

Even if Murray and his coach are on the same page next season, they won’t be working together on the field until the quarterback recovers from the torn ACL he suffered against New England on Monday night. Murray, who relies on his fleet feet as much as any quarterback, might not be back on the practice field until the 2023 season is ongoing.

The situation around Murray is not one teams will try to replicate in hopes their young quarterbacks might succeed.

Murray played without No. 1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games, before losing tight end Zach Ertz to season-ending jury. The Cardinals’ offensive line crumbled, and the man coaching the position, Sean Kugler, was fired for an incident during the team’s trip to Mexico.

A defensive coach whose team faced Arizona this season called Murray “just a middling guy who is streaky” while suggesting the Cardinals were also short on scheme.

“They don’t have enough answers as an offense — if the defense is doing this, get to this,” the coach said. “They just do what they do and they think they are better than everybody. That is not sustainable in the league.”

Wilson was producing at a higher rate when he suffered a concussion against Kansas City in Week 14. If he can clear protocols quickly, he might build on that performance as Denver faces the Cardinals, Rams and Chiefs over the next three weeks. All could be vulnerable in pass coverage. But it’s hard to make a case for Wilson as anything more than a descending talent. He peaked as a unanimous Tier 1 choice entering the 2020 season. Twenty percent of voters placed him in Tier 2 entering 2021. Sixty-eight percent put him in Tier 2 entering 2022. He could easily slip deep into Tier 3 entering next season.

“Russ looks out of whack,” one voter said. “He doesn’t look like he has great command of it. He is obviously looking at the rush a lot, but we all knew he did that even when he was at Seattle. That was always our plan against him, just get around his feet and he’s done. But everything is off. The drop-back game is off, the play-action game is off, it doesn’t look good.”

Matt Ryan, solidly in Tier 2 for the past decade, barely made the cut entering 2022 and will continue his fall into down the ranks — notable, but not necessarily a big surprise. The Colts’ diminished offensive line and run game helped push him over the edge.

“They thought they were getting Philip (Rivers) again and they were not getting that,” said an offensive coach. “Philip is used to throwing off his back foot and has great anticipation, touch, can lay it into spots. Matt has to step into all his throws, so you can play with a worse offensive line with Philip and still get better production because he’s used to it from the San Diego years.”

Tier 3

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume drop-back passing offense suits him best.

2022 Tier 3 QBs (Voted Before Season)

15  Kirk Cousins                 2.72

16  Jimmy Garoppolo         2.88

17  Ryan Tannehill             2.90

18  Mac Jones                   3.06

19  Baker Mayfield            3.24

20  Carson Wentz              3.36

20  Jalen Hurts                  3.36

22  Jared Goff                   3.38

23  Trevor Lawrence         3.40

24  Jameis Winston          3.46

Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence are the three quarterbacks from this group whose stock could be rising.

“Yeah, I would ‘2’ him for sure,” a voter said of Hurts. “He’s throwing the ball at a high level, he is anticipating, he is doing pretty good. They have done a really good job surrounding him. To the kid’s credit, he has also made a lot of plays.”

Hurts leads all quarterbacks in passer rating (108.8), rushing first downs (59) and rushing touchdowns (10). He ranks seventh in EPA per pass play.

“Hurts is going to move to the bottom of Tier 2,” an offensive coach predicted. “He’s not a 1, still has to show he can handle the pure-pass (situations). But their whole offense is built around him in such a manner that as he goes, the team goes. He is in a really good setup. Two years in an offense he feels really comfortable with. They have the ability to operate at so many different speeds and paces. That is what makes them so good.”

Hurts, Goff and Lawrence all rank in the NFL’s top eight for EPA per pass play.

“This one might surprise you, but I’m borderline 2 on him,” a former GM said of Lawrence. “He has shown me something the last few weeks. The Baltimore game was really impressive. Sometimes young players start fast, and then teams figure you out because they get the book on you, and some start to struggle. Trevor seems to be coming out of it. He came out hot, was good, had 4-5 weeks of so-so/bad football, and the last few weeks have been pretty good.”

An evaluator said he wanted to see better consistent decision making in the red zone before moving Lawrence out of Tier 3.

Goff peaked as a Tier 2 QB entering the 2019 season, when Sean McVay was coaching him and the Rams were flush with talent, including on their offensive line. He fell into Tier 3 the next season and slipped deeper within Tier 3 since then. The reality could be that he’s a solid Tier 3 quarterback who can fit into Tier 2 when given strong support.

“We all agree Goff is going to fluctuate between whatever he is and whatever he has shown,” a voter said. “He’s not all of a sudden becoming Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady coming back from 13 points down in the fourth. That is just not what is happening.”

Tier 4

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

2022 Tier 4 QBs (Voted Before Season)

25   Justin Fields               3.74

26   Tua Tagovailoa          3.78

27   Davis Mills                 3.88

28   Zach Wilson              3.92

29   Trey Lance                3.94

30   Daniel Jones             4.00

31   Marcus Mariota          4.04

32   Sam Darnold              4.12

33   Mitch Trubisky           4.16

34   Drew Lock                 4.24

Tagovailoa’s sudden emergence as one of the most productive passers after two rough seasons showed the difference elite weaponry and scheming can make for a quarterback.

“I just can’t explain to you how scared our corners were of Tyreek Hill,” one voter said.

Shaky recent performances against the 49ers and Chargers showed it won’t be easy every week. Tagovailoa has also missed time to injury, a concern entering the season and one reason he received so many lower-tier votes.

“His accuracy is what we knew it was,” another voter said. “I just thought his decision making pre- and post-snap wasn’t great. They have taken all that out from his play. Now that he doesn’t have to do any of that, he is playing quicker. And they have put enough skill around him so it has created a lot of the windows that he had at Alabama.”

Upcoming games against Buffalo, New England and the Jets will test Tagovailoa, particularly now that defenses have had time to adjust their schemes. Miami’s offensive line and running game are not as strong as they’ll need to be.

“Everyone says you gotta have a quarterback, which you do,” an evaluator said. “What you really need is a good coach and if you have that, you have a chance regardless of who your quarterback is.”

That applies to Justin Fields as well after Chicago changed its offense to feature his dynamic rushing ability. Fields will presumably join Tagovailoa in graduating from Tier 4 next year.

“Everything we are saying positive about Fields relates to his running the ball,” a personnel director said. “Right now, he is more exciting to watch than some of these 3s because of his running, but as a quarterback, he hasn’t had the (weapons) around him, and it is harder to say he has progressed in that way.”

The Giants’ Daniel Jones also could have some upward mobility in the tiers.

“Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are doing a good job of protecting him,” a defensive coach said. “I think he can cut it loose a little bit more, but they are not letting him and when they have won, they have done it with Pete Carroll-type model: play really good defense, keep the game close and try to win it in the fourth. You see some things from Jones, but obviously there is something where they don’t trust him enough.”

Tier 5

A Tier 5 quarterback is not a starter.

2022 Tier 5 QBs (Voted Before Season)

35  Geno Smith                 4.62

Geno Smith had not been a starter for most of the past decade, so he fit the Tier 5 description in a literal sense when Seattle named him its starter after Russell Wilson’s departure.

Despite the modest expectations, Smith entered Week 15 leading the league in completion rate while ranking fourth in yards per attempt, third in passer rating and ninth in EPA per pass play. PFF had him with 27 big-time throws, tied with Rodgers for third behind Allen (34) and Brady (29). Mahomes is fifth with 26. This is unexpected company for Smith.

“He’s clearly gotten better at a position where you generally don’t see people get better over long periods of time like that, and it’s been cool to watch, and I enjoy watching him,” an offensive coach said.

The single Tier 3 vote Smith commanded before the season came from someone with inside information; the voter had been a member of the Seattle staff while Smith worked behind the scenes to improve his game, without many on the outside noticing.

“If you remember last season, when Russell (Wilson) broke his finger, the Rams pinned Seattle at the minus-1 (yard line) and Geno took them 99 straight yards,” a voter who placed Smith in Tier 4 said. “He was getting rid of it. They were in it. My point is, he looked good in that game last year and Pete Carroll might be coach of the year.”

Smith’s production has wavered in recent weeks as Seattle’s defense and running game have faltered. If he finishes the season well, he could push toward Tier 2. But the Seahawks’ finishing stretch will be an important part of the evaluation.

“All this pass-game stuff that looks really good,” one voter said. “Is it all just schemed up? Is it that the offensive coordinator now has a pupil listening to him and doing the reads and going through the progressions and doing it exactly like they talk about it on Wednesday and Thursday? Or is it like, this guy is making the third read, fourth read, and making the difference for the offense?”

A former GM said he thought Smith looked like he could be among the 12th- to 15th-best quarterbacks in the league. That is much better than No. 35, which is where the league viewed Smith entering the season.

“He looks better than the guy they got rid of,” the former GM said. “I think you can win with him. You build it the way they want to build it, play good defense, run the ball, play good special teams, you’ll be in the mix every year.”

TAG CANDIDATES

Joel Corry of CBSSports.com looks at some players who could be franchise tagged in a few months:

Franchise tag logistics

NFL teams can retain the rights to one of its impending free agents in 2023 with the use of a transition non-exclusive or an exclusive franchise tag during a 15-day period from Feb. 21 to March 7.

How franchise tenders are calculated is misunderstood. Prior to the 2011 NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, non-exclusive franchise tags had been an average of the five largest salaries in the prior year at a player’s position or 120% of the prior year’s salary of the player, whichever was greater. For franchise tag purposes, salary means a player’s salary cap number, excluding workout bonuses and most other performance bonuses.

The 120% and five largest salaries provisions have remained intact but the formula component is now calculated over a five-year period that’s tied to a percentage of the overall salary cap. More specifically, the number for each position is derived by taking the sum of the non-exclusive franchise tags as determined by the original methodology for the previous five seasons and dividing by the sum of the actual NFL salary cap amount for the previous five seasons. The resulting percentage, which is known as the cap percentage average in the CBA, is then multiplied by the actual salary cap for the upcoming league year.

This non-exclusive tag allows a player to negotiate with other NFL teams but if he signs an offer sheet with another club, his team has five days to match the offer. If the offer is not matched, his team will receive two first-round picks as compensation from the signing team.

Under the exclusive franchise tag, a player will receive a one-year offer from his team that is the greater of the average of the top-five salaries at his position once the restricted free agent signing period of the current league year has ended (April 21 for 2023) or 120% of his prior year’s salary. The non-exclusive number is initially used as a placeholder and adjusted upward if the exclusive calculation dictates once restricted free agency ends. A player cannot negotiate with other teams with the exclusive franchise tag.

The transition tag has been used with a lot less frequency than the franchise tag. It is based on the average of the top-10 salaries at a player’s position using the same methodology as non-exclusive franchise tag calculations. The 120% provision also applies. Teams have the same right of first refusal as with franchise tags but do not receive any draft-choice compensation for declining to match an offer sheet.

2023 tag projections

The chart below contains an early look at the 2023 franchise tags. I keep track of the salary data necessary to do the calculations under the franchise and transition tag formulas. I recently confirmed with my NFL sources the 2022 data entering the formula.

There was a report recently that the 2023 salary cap could exceed $220 million — $225 million is being used for the 2023 salary cap. That’s the most common response given when surveying a handful of teams about the number being used internally for 2023 salary cap projections. That figure is an 8.07% increase from the current $208.2 million figure. The franchise tags are preliminary because the numbers can’t be finalized until the 2023 salary cap is set, which is typically in late February or early March.

POSITION                 PROJECTED                CAP % AVERAGE      CURRENT      % CHANGE

Cornerback                $18,156,000                      8.069%                   $17,287,000    5.03%

Defensive end           $19,744,000                      8.775%                   $17,859,000    10.55%

Defensive tackle       $18,954,000                      8.424%                   $17,396,000     8.96%

Linebacker                $20,945,000                     9.309%                   $18,702,000      11.99%

Offensive line            $18,260,000                    8.116%                    $16,662,000      9.59%

Punter/kicker             $5,398,000                      2.399%                     $5,220,000       3.41%

Quarterback              $32,445,000                    14.42%                    $29,703,000      9.23%

Running back            $10,100,000                    4.489%                    $9,570,000       5.54%

Safety                        $14,473,000                   6.432%                     $12,911,000      12.1%

Tight end                  $11,355,000                    5.047%                     $10,931,000      3.88%

Wide receiver           $19,761,000                   8.783%                     $18,419,000       7.29%

Note: Projections assume 2023 salary cap is $225 million.

Top 2023 candidates

By CBA rule, the players currently under a one-year franchise tag, like Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, are prohibited from signing long term until the regular season ends on Jan. 8. The 49ers are precluded from designating quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as a franchise or transition player. His renegotiated contract, where he took a substantial pay cut, contains a clause preventing either tag.

The Buccaneers can’t keep Tom Brady from hitting the open market if he decides to keep playing football next season when he will be 46 years old. Brady has a clause in his contract like Garoppolo’s.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

Jackson’s great start to the season made him September’s AFC Offensive Player of the Month. He had faded from the NFL MVP conversation before suffering a sprained PCL in his left knee during a Week 13 game against the Broncos. The injury is expected to keep Jackson out of action until Week’s 16 contest versus the Falcons on Christmas Eve.

Jackson, who represents himself, reportedly turned down a five-year offer worth $250 million with $133 million fully guaranteed before cutting off negotiations shortly before the regular season started because he wants a fully guaranteed contract. The offer had the second highest average yearly salary and money fully guaranteed ever in an NFL contract. The fully guaranteed, five-year, $230 million contract the Browns gave quarterback Deshaun Watson in connection with his trade from the Browns to the Texans in March that Jackson views as a benchmark is an outlier.

Negotiations are expected to resume in January after the regular season ends. Jackson is destined to start playing the franchise tag game if both parties remain firmly entrenched in their positions on a fully guaranteed contract.

The exclusive franchise designation will be most likely. Four of the last five times quarterbacks have been designated as franchise players the exclusive tag has been used.

The 2023 exclusive quarterback franchise currently projects to $45.248 million. This number is subject to change depending on new quarterback deals, contract restructures, pay cuts and/or releases between now and then.

Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks

The Seahawks, who were expected to be in a rebuilding mode after trading quarterback Russell Wilson during the offseason, are in contention for a playoff berth with Smith having a Pro Bowl-caliber season. Smith was named October’s NFC Offensive Player of the Month after guiding the Seahawks to four wins in five games. He has thrown for 3,433 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 13 games this season. Smith is connecting on a league-leading 71.5% of his passes, and has the NFL’s third-best passer rating at 106.8.

The Seahawks reportedly want Smith back for 2023. Contract talks are expected to take place after the season. The path Seattle takes may hinge on Smith’s financial demands. Smith would be justified in seeking a multiyear contract in excess of $30 million per year. According to NFLPA data, the average salary for starting quarterbacks, excluding those on rookie contracts, is $32,036,681 per year. If the Seahawks have enough concerns about regression since it’s unknown whether this season is a true breakout performance for the 32-year-old or an anomaly, then some sort of designation may be warranted instead of making a long-term commitment in this salary stratosphere. Interestingly, the projected non-exclusive quarterback franchise tag approximates the average starter salary with veteran contracts.

Seattle could hedge its bets by selecting a quarterback early in the 2023 NFL Draft. Thanks to the Wilson trade, Seattle owns Denver’s 2023 first-round pick, which would be second overall if the season ended today.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

The Raiders surely regret declining a fifth-year option in 2023 with Jacobs for a fully guaranteed, $8.034 million deal given the type of season he is having. There’s a little over a $2 million difference between the salary for the declined option year and the projected running back franchise tag.

Jacobs has become an NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate. He is leading the NFL with 1,402 rushing yards and 1,748 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards). His 11 rushing touchdowns are tied for third in the NFL.

Fortunately for the Raiders, running backs typically don’t capitalize on free agency like players at most other positions. If Jacobs wasn’t a running back, he would have a legitimate chance at replacing Christian McCaffrey as highest paid at the position. McCaffrey signed a four-year extension, averaging $16,015,853 per year with $39,162,500 of guarantees in 2020. He has a running back-best $30,062,500 fully guaranteed at signing.

There are eight running backs in the NFL with contracts averaging $12 million per year or more. All of the deals were for the players to remain with their own teams. The running back market with veteran contracts then takes a sharp downward turn with James Conner (Cardinals) and Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers) rounding out the top 10 on deals averaging $7 million per year.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants

The Giants attempting to negotiate a new deal with Barkley prior to Week’s 9 bye suggests he is more of a signing priority and a better franchise tag candidate than quarterback Daniel Jones, whose fifth-year option in 2023 for $22.384 million wasn’t exercised. The two sides reportedly weren’t close to reaching a deal.

Presumably, Barkley wants to be among the league’s five highest paid running backs. This would require Barkley topping the four-year, $50 million deal, averaging $12.5 million per year, Derrick Henry signed with the Titans in 2020 as a franchise player. Henry’s deal is worth as much as $51 million through incentives and had $25.5 million fully guaranteed.

Barkley is having his best season since 2018 when he looked like a superstar in the making during a stellar debut season in which he led the NFL with 2,028 yards from scrimmage and earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Barkley is fourth in the NFL with 1,083 rushing yards. His 1,344 yards from scrimmage are the sixth most in the NFL.

Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Chiefs

Brown rejected a reported six-year, $139 million deal with a $30.25 million signing bonus at the July 15 deadline for franchise players to sign long term. Instead, Brown is playing under a $16.662 million franchise tag. That’s because the deal was backloaded and too long for a 26-year-old Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle to accept. Cosmetically, Brown would have become the NFL’s highest paid offensive lineman at $23,166,667 per year because of a highly inflated last year of the contract.

The deal was really $95 million for five years since there was a $44 million salary in 2027 that Brown would never see. Brown probably hasn’t done anything this season to dissuade the Chiefs from putting a second franchise tag on him in 2023 for $19,994,440. This number is derived from the 20% raise provisions with franchise tags.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys

Schultz and the Cowboys were never close to a deal before the July 15 multiyear contract deadline for franchise players. The Browns signing David Njoku, who was also franchised, to a four-year deal, averaging $13,687,500 per year in June, instantly became Schultz’s salary floor.

Schultz isn’t going to approach his 2021 production of 78 catches, 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns when he had a career year because of being slowed by a PCL issue in his right knee that has kept him out of two games. A lack of chemistry with backup quarterback Cooper Rush while Dak Prescott missed five games with a fractured right thumb is also a contributing factor. There really hasn’t been a statistical drop-off from last season for Schultz when Prescott is at quarterback.

A second Schultz franchise tag in 2023 will be $13,117,200. It’s 20% more than the $10.931 million tender he quickly signed after the Cowboys made him a franchise player in March.

Dallas could decide to let Schultz walk rather than pay him more than Njoku. Jake Ferguson, a 2022 fourth-round pick, and Peyton Hendershot, a 2022 undrafted free agent, are first-year players on rookie contracts who would be at a fraction of Schultz’s cost next year and beyond.

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys

Dallas has two viable options for a franchise tag because Pollard is the most effective running back on the roster despite Ezekiel Elliott’s presence. Pollard appears to be headed for his first 1,000-yard rushing season. He is on pace for 1,169 yards. Pollard is second among NFL running backs with 5.7 yards per carry.

Retaining Pollard whether on a long-term deal or franchise tag could come at Elliott’s expense. Pollard is expected to be cheaper over the next three years than the $36.3 million Elliott is scheduled to make from 2023 through 2025. Teams rarely make a significant financial investment in two running backs simultaneously. Elliott having the 2023’s second largest running back cap hit at $16.72 million on a $10.9 million salary makes him a potential salary cap casualty with Pollard remaining in the fold.

Jessie Bates, S, Bengals

Bates didn’t sign his $12.911 million franchise tender until the latter part of August after negotiations failed to produce a multiyear agreement. He hasn’t let the lack of signing long term affect his play this season like during the early part of 2021 when he was in the final year of his rookie contract.

A second franchise tag for Bates would be $15,493,200 — 120% of his current one. If history is any indication, Bates is headed for the open market after the season. There isn’t a track record of the Bengals using a franchise tag on the same player in consecutive years.

Bates is likely playing elsewhere in 2023 if he becomes an unrestricted free agent. His reasonable worst-case scenario in free agency should be the five-year, $70 million contract, averaging $14 million per year, Marcus Williams received from the Ravens on the open market this year with $37 million in guarantees ($32 million fully guaranteed at signing).

Bates probably has his sights set a lot higher than the Williams deal. David Mulugheta, his agent, reset the safety market in August when Derwin James signed a four-year, $76 million extension with $42 million in guarantees where $38,584,471 was fully guaranteed at signing.

Cincinnati seemingly has a contingency plan in place for an eventual Bates departure. Safety Daxton Hill was selected 31st overall in this year’s draft.

Daron Payne, DT, Commanders

The presumption was 2022 was going to be Payne’s last year in Washington because there wasn’t much interest in extending his contract during the offseason. The calculus could be changing in Washington with Payne elevating his game as a pass rusher this season.

Payne, who is playing under an $8.529 million fifth-year option, is third in the NFL among interior defensive linemen with a career-high 8.5 sacks. His 15 tackles for loss are tied for the second most in the league.

The Commanders should be prepared to exceed the contract given to Jonathan Allen to keep arguably the best interior defensive line tandem together long term. Allen signed a four-year, $72 million extension, averaging $18 million per year, in 2021.

The 25-year-old Payne should be one of the beneficiaries of Aaron Donald dramatically resetting the market of interior defensive linemen, particularly if he hits the open market. Donald signed a three-year, $95 million deal, averaging $31,666,667 per year, in June. There is a huge gap between Donald and the next highest paid interior defensive lineman (DeForest Buckner/Leonard Williams) at $21 million per year. Donald’s deal averages nearly 51% more. Expect this gap to be closed during the upcoming offseason.