| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAMike Sando of The Athletic on what might be next for QB KIRK COUSINS: Kirk Cousins appeared to be back in peak form as the NFL calendar turned to October. The 36-year-old quarterback, not quite one year removed from surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon, passed for 509 yards and four touchdowns in the Atlanta Falcons’ Week 5 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As recently as five weeks ago, Cousins was coming off a two-game stretch in which he tossed seven touchdown passes with no interceptions while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt. He was the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Week twice in October. It’s been a disaster for Cousins ever since. The Falcons benched him Tuesday after a five-game stretch of futility featuring nine interceptions, one touchdown pass and a single victory, 15-9 over the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night. That was it for Cousins. We do not yet know what the future holds for Cousins. If he’s reached the end as a viable starter, there isn’t much to talk about. But with quarterback demand exceeding supply, and with Cousins having produced at times even during this disappointing season, the possibilities are intriguing. Cousins has a no-trade clause in his contract. His $27.5 million salary next season is guaranteed, with an additional $10 million in 2026 bonus money becoming guaranteed in March. It’s difficult to envision another team acquiring Cousins and that contract from the Falcons by trade. But if Cousins decided after the season he wanted out, the Falcons could release him with a post-June 1 designation, which would help them mitigate the salary-cap impact. That’s easier to envision. Russell Wilson 2.0The Pittsburgh Steelers are getting great value from Wilson while Wilson’s former team, the Denver Broncos, picks up most of the tab. A similar situation could unfold with Cousins. The Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $242 million extension in September 2022. They released him a year and a half later, even though they still had to pay Wilson his $39 million salary this season. Wilson became free to sign with any team, with whatever salary he earned offsetting the $39 million he’s getting from Denver. This allowed the Steelers to sign Wilson on a one-year deal worth the veteran minimum, $1.2 million. Wilson wasn’t as mobile as he’d been during his prime years. There were no guarantees he would recapture past form. But at that discounted price, what did the Steelers have to lose? Wilson has upgraded the position for the Steelers, emerging as their leading candidate to start next season if the sides can agree on a contract. Cousins is three months older than Wilson and could be physically stronger next season than he is right now. Why not the Browns?The Cleveland Browns have watched the Wilson experiment work well for their AFC North rival in Pittsburgh. While the Browns could be stuck with Deshaun Watson and his contract for another year or even two, they clearly need alternatives. Re-signing Jameis Winston seemed more appealing several weeks ago, but Cleveland benched him this week after Winston struggled. The Browns, while improved on offense after Winston replaced the injured Watson in the lineup, ranked 32nd in EPA per play across each quarterback’s seven-game starting stretches, per TruMedia. Cleveland could select a quarterback in the 2025 draft while bringing in Cousins on a deal similar to the one Wilson signed with Pittsburgh. The fit could be ideal. Cousins and Browns coach Kevin Stefanski overlapped on the Vikings in 2018 and 2019, when Cousins was the starting quarterback and Stefanski was quarterbacks coach and later offensive coordinator. That arrangement worked well enough for the Browns to hire Stefanski as their coach in 2020. Cleveland extended Stefanski’s contract before this season. The Browns are currently slotted seventh in the draft order. They could select a quarterback early or wait until later. Whatever the case, Cousins’ relationship with Stefanski could help him trust the Browns to be more straightforward with him than the Falcons were when they surprisingly selected Penix weeks after signing Cousins. At this stage, Cousins wouldn’t command a guaranteed long-term starting job, anyway. Wilson competed with Justin Fields through the offseason before emerging as the starter. Cousins might need to compete as well. He’d have more time to get stronger in his second year removed from surgery. The play-action and under-center tactics Stefanski prefers could take pressure off Cousins after the Falcons, for whatever reason, did not use either much with him this season. Would other options appeal?Signing a minimum-salary deal with another team would mean no new money for Cousins. Without financial incentives in the short term, Cousins might prioritize other factors. Where could he start? Where could he win? Where would he already know the offense? Where would he find coaches he trusts? Where would he and his family want to live? Only Cousins can decide how to answer those questions, how much to weigh each and what else might matter to him. Some possibilities beyond Cleveland: • The price to re-sign Wilson in Pittsburgh could turn Cousins into a lower-cost alternative for the Steelers. Under this scenario, the Broncos and Falcons would be paying more than $75 million over a two-year period to finance the Steelers’ veteran quarterbacks. • The New York Giants and New York Jets could need quarterbacks. Would Cousins really want to engage those teams in that market at this stage of his career? A less-mobile Cousins playing behind those teams’ offensive lines could be disastrous. What will the coaching situations there look like? • The Las Vegas Raiders enter Week 16 first in the 2025 draft order, with the Giants slotted second. Cousins could serve as an attractive bridge to a highly drafted QB, but after what he just experienced with the Falcons, who did not inform Cousins they would select Penix until they were on the clock, going to a rebuilding team almost certain to select a quarterback among the top five picks could shorten his runway sufficiently to make the job less appealing. • The Tennessee Titans just benched Will Levis, signaling they’ll be in the market for quarterback help. They’re sixth in the 2025 draft order now. They do not seem to be an aging Cousins away from relevance. • The San Francisco 49ers were interested in signing Cousins for years, but the timing was never right. Would they consider bringing in Cousins if Brock Purdy faltered badly down the stretch or suffered an injury? Would the 49ers consider Cousins as a veteran backup/insurance policy as part of a strategy to make one last Super Bowl run with their current core? Would this appeal to Cousins in the absence of an attractive starting job? Or might he just prefer to stay with the Falcons? A possible timelineThe Falcons drafted Cousins’ replacement before Cousins played a single down for the team. The decision to use a top-10 pick on Penix so quickly after signing Cousins to a big-money deal caught the NFL off-guard. Did Atlanta have reason to think Cousins might not hold up physically or recapture past form? “I really like Penix, but if you are going to draft him, why would you not have taken Justin Fields from Chicago or signed Russell Wilson and then drafted Penix?” an exec from another team said before the season. “No one would fault you for that. They would have been much better off with money invested elsewhere. And the thing about Penix is, he is ready to play now. He is not the rookie QB that needs to wait.” Cousins’ four-year, $160 million deal with the Falcons is effectively a two-year deal for $100 million. The Falcons might want to keep Cousins as insurance for Penix, whose medical history at the University of Washington was concerning for some teams. Cousins, by all accounts, wanted to stay in Atlanta for the longer term. There’s no need for anyone to make a decision right now. Free agency is scheduled to begin March 12 after a two-day negotiating period. Another $10 million in Cousins’ contract becomes guaranteed March 16. That could be a trigger date. |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYMichael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com on the decline in big plays from TE TRAVIS KELCE: For most of Travis Kelce’s career, the Chiefs have known that if they got him the ball, he was good for about 12 or 13 yards: From Kelce’s first season as the Chiefs’ starting tight end in 2014 through 2022, Kelce averaged somewhere between 12.2 and 13.5 yards per catch every year. That is no longer the case. In 2023, Kelce’s yards per catch average dropped significantly, to a career-low 10.6 yards. And this year, Kelce’s average has dropped significantly again, all the way down to 8.4 yards per catch, by far the worst mark of his career. Kelce is still getting the ball a lot, with a team-high 84 catches this season. But his average yards per catch of 8.4 is ugly; every other NFL player with at least 75 catches this season is averaging at least 10.0 yards per catch. At the age of 35, Kelce has lost a step, and as a result he’s running shorter routes and doing less with the ball in his hands. He’s also not finding the end zone as much, with just two touchdowns through 14 games. And his first downs have declined as well, from 78 in 2022 to 50 last year to 41 this year. The Chiefs have the NFL’s best record, and Kelce has a history of turning it on in the playoffs — as he did a year ago, when his 32 catches for 355 yards and three touchdowns were the best of any player in the NFL last postseason. They need him to step it up when the games matter most again this year, because he’s having his worst regular season. The Chiefs should get some explosiveness to their passing game with the activation of WR HOLLYWOOD BROWN. Adam Teicher of ESPN.com: The Chiefs will activate wide receiver Hollywood Brown from injured reserve and play him in Saturday’s game against the Houston Texans unless he has any setbacks, sources told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler on Thursday. Brown hasn’t played for the Chiefs since suffering a sternoclavicular injury on the first play of the first preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had surgery and was in rehab before returning to practice for the first time last week. The Chiefs cleared a roster spot for Brown earlier this week when they released running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Brown caught 51 passes for the Arizona Cardinals last season. His best season came for the Baltimore Ravens in 2021, when he caught 91 passes for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CLEVELANDA couple of weeks ago, QB JAMEIS WINSTON was the toast of Cleveland, playing joyfully in the snow. Today, he’s headed for the bench. Liz Roscher of YahooSports.com: Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski made the team’s quarterback change official on Wednesday: Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, and Jameis Winston will be on the bench as QB2. Stefanski announced the news during his media availability, saying he “wanted to give [Thompson-Robinson] an opportunity and give him an entire week to prepare as a starter. So, that’s what went into the decision.” “A young player that’s really gotten better in every area,” Browns coach Kevin Stefanski told reporters of Thompson-Robinson. “He’s done a very, very good job of getting up to speed on all the nuance of the position. He’s done a very good job of keeping himself prepared for when a moment comes that he’s being put in there. So he’s really taken the preparation part of this really well.” The ascension of Thompson-Robinson, the 2023 5th-round pick who is also known as DTR, ends Winston’s time as starting QB. Winston replaced Deshaun Watson midway through the Browns’ Week 7 game against the Cincinnati Bengals when Watson went down with a torn achilles, and has started every game since. Over the seven games Winston started after Watson went down, he showed flashes of brilliance at times, throwing for for 2,038 yards and 13 touchdowns. But the 12 interceptions he threw were a major part of his undoing, especially recently. Over the past three games, which have all been Browns losses, Winston has thrown eight interceptions. Now DTR will have a chance to fully prep this week to be Sunday’s starter after replacing Winston during Week 15’s losing effort against the Kansas City Chiefs. While Stefanski didn’t discuss the starting QB for Weeks 17 and 18 on Wednesday, Thompson-Robinson has a decent chance to start those if he plays well Sunday. |
| PITTSBURGHQB RUSSELL WILSON hopes the Steelers want him back next year. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Russell Wilson hopes his first year with the Steelers won’t be his last. Hard Knocks documented an event in Pittsburgh for the Why Not You Foundation founded by Wilson and his wife Ciara, at which a child asked Wilson if he likes playing for the Steelers. “Yeah, I love it. It’s awesome,” Wilson answered. Asked if he’s going to re-sign with the Steelers, Wilson answered, “Hopefully, I love it here. It’s cool. Hopefully we’re going to win a Super Bowl.” This year Wilson is giving the Steelers the NFL’s biggest bargain, playing for a league-minimum salary of $1.2 million because his contract with the Broncos, who cut him in the offseason, guaranteed that he was going to make $39 million this year whether from the Broncos or anyone else. He took the least he could take from Pittsburgh and made Denver pay the balance. But Wilson is slated to become a free agent in March, and he has proven this year that he’s still capable of starting in the NFL. He’s going to command starter’s money, but he may decide to prioritize playing in a place where he’s comfortable, and Pittsburgh is that place. What is “starter’s money” for Wilson? Michael DeFabio of the New York Times tried to answer that question – and his number was pretty darn high: Wilson, who turned 36 in November, said when he joined the Steelers that he hoped to play another five or six seasons. How many of those could be in Pittsburgh? Let’s take a look at what Wilson could command on the open market and what it means for the future of the organization. (All salary figures courtesy of Over the Cap.) Wilson’s contract historyWilson has earned $304.1 million in his 13-year career. Historically, he’s preferred shorter contracts that allow him to negotiate his next deal sooner to capitalize on a booming market. Often, he has commanded top dollar at his position. Reasonable comparisonsThis season, four quarterbacks in a similar age bracket are enjoying big-money deals, including two who signed those deals as free agents, as Wilson is set to be. These contracts provide a rough framework for what Wilson could garner after his bounce-back season. Kirk Cousins: four years, $180 million
Cousins, who is three months and 10 days older than Wilson, might be the closest comp. He played on a one-year extension with the Minnesota Vikings in 2023 for $35 million, tore his Achilles tendon midway through the season and then inked a big free-agent deal with the Atlanta Falcons in March. The four-year, $180 million contract ($45 million average) included a $50 million signing bonus and $100 million in guaranteed money. Aaron Rodgers: three years, $112.5 millionAfter being traded from the Green Bay Packers ahead of the 2023 season, Rodgers took a pay cut of about $35 million by signing a revised three-year, $112.5 million contract ($37.5 million average) with the New York Jets, four months ahead of his 40th birthday. The deal included $75 million in guaranteed money. Matthew Stafford: four years, $160 millionIn March 2022, a little over a month after winning the Super Bowl, a 34-year-old Stafford signed a four-year, $160 million contract ($40 million average) with the Los Angeles Rams that included a $60 million signing bonus and $120 million in guaranteed money. The sides restructured the deal before the 2024 season, altering guarantees but not changing the overall value. Derek Carr: four years, $150 millionAfter being released by the Las Vegas Raiders, a 32-year-old Carr signed a four-year, $150 million deal ($37.5 million average) with the New Orleans Saints as a free agent. It included a $28.5 million signing bonus and $100 million in guarantees. How Wilson stacks up to the veteransThe stats suggest that Wilson has played on-par, or, in many cases, much better than the other four veterans in their mid-30s or early 40s. QBR — Wilson’s QBR this season is 56.7, which ranks 19th among eligible quarterbacks. That’s ahead of Cousins (56.3, 20th) and Rodgers (51.4, 25th) but behind Stafford (65.6, eighth) and Carr (63.3, 13th). His numbers have been hurt by inconsistent red zone performances. Over the final stretch, he’s likely to improve in this department and bolster his QBR. Passer rating — Wilson’s passer rating of 103.9 ranks sixth in the NFL, the best of any of these. Carr is 10th (101.0), followed by Stafford (96.8, 14th), Cousins (89.0, 19th) and Rodgers (88.9, 20th). Passing yards/game — Wilson is averaging 254.9 passing yards per game, which ranks sixth. Cousins (261.2, fourth) and Stafford (254.1, seventh) are neck and neck with the Steelers QB. Rodgers (228.2, 17th) and Carr (214.5, 21st) are in the middle of the pack. Touchdowns/interceptions — Wilson has protected the ball well throughout his career, so it’s no surprise to see he ranks sixth in this category with 4.0 touchdowns for every interception. That’s ahead of Carr (3.0, ninth), Stafford (2.7, 11th) and Rodgers (2.5, 12th). Yards/attempt — Wilson ranks fifth with 8.4 yards per attempt. That’s better than Cousins (7.8, eighth), Carr (7.7, 11th), Stafford (7.5, 15th) and Rodgers (6.5, 29th) The case for paying WilsonThe Steelers learned a hard lesson about what a team can look like without a solid quarterback commanding the offense. During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, they wasted part of Cameron Heyward’s, T.J. Watt’s and Minkah Fitzpatrick’s primes, as the defense lugged an anemic offense to a winning record. That championship-caliber defense is now aging. Fitzpatrick is 28, Watt is 30 and Heyward is 35. At this point, the Steelers risk wasting a defense that the organization spent years building. The best chance for Pittsburgh to win in the current window is with a veteran like Wilson. Why Wilson might want to stay in PittsburghAhead of the season, Wilson posted a picture on Instagram with the caption “Legacy.” He’s already begun to make his case for the Hall of Fame during his first 13 seasons. Taking a storied franchise like the Steelers on a couple deep postseason runs would further cement his place in the game. As this season has shown, Wilson has been the missing piece to what was otherwise a pretty complete roster. There should be a level of optimism that the Steelers continue to build upon the foundation they’ve already established. Only two starters, cornerback Donte Jackson and inside linebacker Elandon Roberts, are not under contract in 2025. Given the star power coming back, it’s reasonable to expect that if Wilson returns, he would be in a similar situation with a stout defense to support him. Offensively, the Steelers should continue to improve on the ground, helping take the pressure off of Wilson and setting up his moonball. The young, talented offensive line will likely only continue to improve with time and with the return of 2024 first-round pick Troy Fautanu, who was lost for the regular season with a knee injury. The biggest questions on that side of the ball are what to do with running back Najee Harris, who will be a free agent, and receiver George Pickens, who will be entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2025 and eligible for an extension. If Wilson is serious about winning, this might be his best chance. Risks the Steelers need to considerWhile Wilson has largely outperformed the other quarterbacks in his age group, those other passers haven’t necessarily lit the world on fire. According to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini and Zack Rosenblatt, Jets owner Woody Johnson suggested benching Rodgers earlier this year. Who knows where that marriage will lead this offseason. Many in Atlanta are wondering how soon the Falcons will pivot from Cousins to rookie Michael Penix Jr. Carr just sustained a fractured hand. As quarterbacks age, injury risk becomes more real, as was shown with Cousins last season and Wilson the start of this one. At some point, even the game’s greats decline. If the Steelers make Wilson the highest-paid player on the roster, they’ll need to hope that the QB can fight back father time as he approaches age 40. Pittsburgh must also consider Wilson’s down years in Denver and his relatively small sample size with the Steelers. Have they seen enough to merit a contract with multiple years of guaranteed money? Are they confident he can continue to play at this level, perhaps even without Arthur Smith if the coordinator draws head-coaching interest? The verdictWhile the Steelers might want to minimize risk with a shorter deal, the market says Wilson could command a three or four-year contract with an annual average in the $40-$45 million range — maybe even more, if money is his biggest motivator. Perhaps Wilson would realize he’s already made more than $300 million in his career and that winning is worth more at this stage than another hefty contract. However, for players, salaries are often a sign of respect. The Steelers shouldn’t be counting on Wilson taking a huge hometown discount in a city in which he hasn’t even spent a whole year. If the Steelers want a veteran QB with a Super Bowl resume, there’s a cost to doing business. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| TENNESSEECoach Brian Callahan gets fired up. And Nick Gray of The Tennessean is among those agreeing with Callahan that his team is tough, just not very good. Tennessee Titans coach Brian Callahan doesn’t always get fired up in front of the media and the cameras in his regular availabilities. But there is one topic that produced an impassioned response on Wednesday, and it had nothing to do with the quarterback status or 3-11 record. In response to a question about the Titans being “soft” both mentally and physically, Callahan delivered a fiery and very long answer. “I mean, you really want to get me going today?” Callahan said. “Yeah, I think to be honest with you, that is complete and total (expletive), if you want my honest opinion. These guys are tough (expletive), man, and they go after it every day. They play hard as hell, and at no point have we put on tape at any point this season that this is a soft football team. I can’t even wrap my mind around how that would even be a conversation. I mean, just because we don’t win games doesn’t mean we’re soft. “These guys play their ass off, they play hard, they play physical. You can ask any team that plays against us, when they come off the field, they know they played us. Yeah, that makes me relatively angry that that would be some presumption. That means you don’t watch the (expletive), you don’t know what you’re talking about and you don’t know what you’re looking at. So, I’m not going to stand for anybody calling this football team soft. I think that’s (expletive). “So if there are opinions out there that feel that way, then they don’t know anything about NFL football. I’d like for you to walk in there and call one of these guys soft and see what happens, you know? This is not a soft football team at all, mentally or physically. And I think one of the things mentally that’s really been impressive about the team is the way that they keep fighting through the way this season has gone. They’ve not shown at any point that they’re not up to the task. They come out every day and work, they have . . . ” Callahan continued to say before pausing and finally taking a deep breath. “You want to really get me going now? I mean, these guys come out here and do every thing possible to win games. and if there’s any assumption anywhere that’s outside of this building — we don’t focus on all those things, but there’s no possible explanation to say that this team is soft in any way, shape or form, mentally or physically. And the way that they go about their work, it’s insulting to me, to them, to everyone that works here. “No chance ever in hell would I ever admit that to be the case, and neither would anybody in this locker room. So you can kind of shove that one right up your ass, to be honest.” The team-wide theory is generally unfounded, even if the Titans rookie defensive back cited the cold in the a loss. There has been no discernible lack of effort among the offense, defense and special teams, even if game-plan execution is a real issue. Penalties and turnovers are one thing; physical toughness is another. And Callahan is changing QBs this week – which results in quite the lead to the story by Kevin Patra of NFL.com: During the Christmas season, the Tennessee Titans, like Santa, will turn to Rudolph to light their way. The Titans will start Mason Rudolph at quarterback on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, head coach Brian Callahan announced Wednesday, sending Will Levis to the bench. Callahan added that he still believes in Levis and that the decision pertains to this season and not Levis’ career in Tennessee. “I’m not worried about any long-term discussions at the moment, I’m trying to get this week done and win this week,” Callahan said. “Those are all things we can revisit again at a later date. Yeah, I expect Will to be the backup and he is, he’s under contract year. I still believe in Will. I still believe he can improve. Those things haven’t changed, but for right now, this is the best decision for our football team.” The Titans benched Levis in Sunday’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals following three interceptions and a lost fumble. Turnovers have been a bugaboo for the second-year quarterback, who has thrown 12 interceptions to 12 TD passes this season. Entering the season, there were questions about whether the big-armed Levis could thrive in Callahan’s system. Could he make the right reads and matriculate the ball down the field? While there were a few splashes here and there, most of his play was ugly. The first-year head coach gave the former second-round pick plenty of leash to turn it around, even returning him to the starting lineup after missing three games due to injury. Yet the turnovers persisted. “It wasn’t for lack of coaching or pouring into,” Callahan said. “We’ve given, at every turn, as much as we can to try to put Will in position to succeed. He’s shown improvement. There’s a lot of things he’s improved at. It hasn’t been enough consistency at this moment. So, those are the things that we’re trying to fix. Those aren’t easy decisions ever.” It marks the second consecutive December in which Rudolph has taken over for a disappointing young quarterback. He was inserted into the starting lineup Christmas week in Pittsburgh last year and didn’t give up the gig even when Kenny Pickett returned healthily. Rudolph has started three games for the Titans this season, blowout losses in Buffalo and Detroit and a win over New England. Sunday in relief, he completed 80% of his passes for 209 yards with two TDs and an interception. Benching Levis for a veteran on a one-year contract will jumpstart questions about what the Titans will do at the quarterback position in 2025. They could chase the likes of Sam Darnold or turn to the draft to select their future signal-caller. Tennessee currently sits with the No. 5 overall draft selection with three weeks remaining. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW YORK JETSQB AARON RODGERS with more quotes about 2025. Rich Cimini of ESPN.com: Aaron Rodgers was stunned when the Green Bay Packers drafted Jordan Love as his heir apparent in 2020. He won’t be surprised if the New York Jets do the same this spring. In fact, Rodgers said he would embrace it — if he’s still playing. While he reiterated Wednesday that he’s undecided on his future, Rodgers indicated his decision won’t be influenced by the Jets’ plans. He said he’s not opposed to the idea of helping develop a highly drafted quarterback. “When they drafted Jordan, I felt like I was one bad stretch from being benched — and I won MVP a couple of years, so that’s the way the league is,” Rodgers said after practice. “You have to prove you can play every single week and through stretches. “So if [the Jets] asked me back and they drafted a guy, I’d mentor the hell out of him if I was playing and I’d try to play as well as I could to keep him on the bench.” Rodgers was 36 when the Packers drafted Love in the first round, and the future Hall of Famer went on to win his third and fourth MVPs in 2020 and 2021. He was replaced by Love in 2023. This time, the circumstances are a bit different. Rodgers is 41, having a down year by his standards. His future is cloaked with uncertainty. The Jets are going through a regime change and Rodgers said he won’t rush into anything. “I’m going to take some time after the year — unless I get released right away — but I’ll still take some time whether or not I want to play,” he said. “But I’ll take some time to get away from it, either way.” The Jets (4-10), who face the Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at MetLife Stadium, could have two top-40 draft picks and might be in position to add a quarterback. Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor (35) and rookie Jordan Travis (non-football injury list) are under contract for 2025, but none is considered a long-term answer. If Rodgers decides to keep playing, he said the Jets would be his first option. “I mean, there are a lot of reasons why this would be a great opportunity, but I’m going to see what happens,” Rodgers said. “There are a lot of things yet to happen. You have to hire a GM, have to hire a head coach, and then whether or not I’m part of conversation or whether or not they move on. Whatever happens, I’ll be taking my time and thinking about my future.” Rodgers’ 2025 cap charge isn’t outrageous ($23.5 million), but he has a $35 million option bonus due in 2025. He said he’s not opposed to taking a pay cut for a second time; he took a voluntary cut ($34 million) in 2023. “Yeah, I’m open to everything,” he said. If the Jets release or trade Rodgers, they will incur a $49 million cap hit in 2025 — unless they spread it over two years by designating him a June 1 cut. If he returns next season under his existing contract, the dead cap charge in 2026 balloons to $63 million. The sense around the organization is that Rodgers won’t be back, but his recent play might make it a tougher decision for the incoming regime. In the past two games, he passed for 628 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions with a 76.8 Total QBR — sixth in the league. “It’s definitely closer to the Aaron Rodgers that we all know and expect him to be, but I still think he has a ways to go to get back to the MVP Rodgers that I know,” wide receiver Allen Lazard said. “He’s been phenomenal these past two games, but I know he can be ever better.”– – -Three writers (Zack Rosenblatt, Dianna Russini and Michael Silver) at The Athletic team up to pile on Jets owner Woody Johnson – as well as his sons who are emerging as heirs. We can’t help but wonder about the off-the-record contributions here from the departed Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas. Woody Johnson decided to do his own research. The New York Jets’ owner was at his house in Palm Beach, Fla., last February, discussing potential offseason acquisitions with team decision-makers as they watched game tape. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, a former Denver Broncos first-round pick, flashed on the screen. Jets general manager Joe Douglas expressed interest, according to someone familiar with the meeting. Johnson took out his phone and started typing. A few weeks later, Douglas and his Broncos counterpart, George Paton, were deep in negotiations for a trade that would have sent Jeudy to the Jets and given future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers another potential playmaker. The Broncos felt a deal was near. Then, abruptly, it all fell apart. In Denver’s executive offices, they couldn’t believe the reason why. Douglas told the Broncos that Johnson didn’t want to make the trade because the owner felt Jeudy’s player rating in “Madden NFL,” the popular video game, wasn’t high enough, according to multiple league sources. The Broncos ultimately traded the receiver to the Cleveland Browns. Last Sunday, Jeudy crossed the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the first time in his career. Coming into this season, the Jets had hopes of ending the franchise’s 13-year playoff drought — the longest in the four major men’s North American sports — and quieting years of talk about the franchise’s dysfunction. Instead, this season has only cemented the Jets’ reputation. Head coach Robert Saleh was fired five games into the campaign. Douglas was fired six weeks later. Johnson suggested benching Rodgers due to poor performance — a Jets spokesperson said the owner was “being provocative. He made the statement in jest to see how it would be handled.” A week later, the Jets traded for Davante Adams, the All-Pro wideout and Rodgers’ close friend and former teammate in Green Bay. New York has stumbled to a 4-10 record and will miss the postseason for the 14th straight season. Another offseason of turnover awaits, and at the root of the franchise’s problems is Johnson, who was characterized as an over-involved, impulsive owner in conversations with more than 20 people in and around the Jets organization — current and former players, coaches and team executives — who were granted anonymity in order to speak openly without fear of reprisal. “They keep on doing the same thing over and over: they change the football people. The football people are not the issue,” one former executive said. “It’s, ‘Hey, I have brain cancer.’ And, ‘Well, just cut off your foot.’” Johnson, who declined The Athletic’s request for comment, soured on his franchise quarterback less than a year after betting big on him, denigrated his own players in the locker room and seemed to follow decision-making advice from his teenage sons, according to various team and league sources. And the proposed Jeudy trade wasn’t the only time Johnson cited “Madden” ratings when evaluating players. “There are organizations where it is all set up for you to win,” said a player with the team in 2023. “It feels completely different (with the Jets). It’s the most dysfunctional place imaginable.” Ahead of the Jets-Giants preseason finale at MetLife Stadium in 2019, an administrative assistant popped into the team’s coaching offices to make an announcement to then-head coach Adam Gase and his staff. Woody Johnson, then serving as U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom in the Trump administration, was temporarily returning from London. The assistant said everyone should refer to Johnson as “Mr. Ambassador.” That has held true long after Johnson left government and returned to his role as Jets chairman in January 2021, striking a discordant tone among those who believe the organization has long been plagued by mismanagement. “I guess that’s what you’d call him,” one assistant coach said. “I’d never been around royalty before.” Johnson is an heir to the Johnson & Johnson pharmaceutical fortune, but he spends most of his working days at the Jets facility in Florham Park, N.J., and often meets with the head coach and general manager. When he bought the team in 2000, Johnson thought he was inheriting Bill Belichick as coach — hand-picked by Bill Parcells to take over before Parcells resigned. Belichick lasted only one day, scribbling “I resign as HC of the NYJ” on a napkin at his introductory news conference before bolting for the New England Patriots. The legendary coach has spent much of the past two decades torturing the Jets franchise, on the field and off of it. While out of coaching this fall, Belichick mocked Johnson in various media appearances (Belichick’s camp also reached out to the Jets about their head-coaching vacancy). In an appearance on ESPN’s “ManningCast” during a Monday night game between the Jets and Bills on Oct. 14 — New York’s first game since firing Saleh — Belichick described the owner’s approach to running the organization as “ready, fire, aim.” Many who have been part of the Jets organization during Johnson’s tenure heard that comment and agreed. Others pointed to the owner’s words on Oct. 15, the day the Jets acquired Adams, when Johnson said, “Thinking is overrated.” “Woody is just acting on instinct,” said a current Jets executive. “With Woody, it’s like, ‘I’m right — prove me wrong.’ You just don’t know what to expect … He’s been right enough, just with his random opinions, that (a bad decision) doesn’t dissuade him. And when he’s wrong, who’s gonna hold him accountable?” During the annual NFL Draft, Johnson is known to keep to himself while decisions are being made, according to one former executive, then exit the room and retreat to a nearby snack bar with confidants to make “smart-ass lines” about the front office’s decisions. Team decision-makers didn’t appreciate Johnson’s after-the-fact critiques, but the owner was occasionally proven correct: The executive remembers Johnson being especially vocal when former general manager Mike Maccagnan drafted quarterback Christian Hackenberg out of Penn State in the second round of the 2016 Draft. Hackenberg never played a regular-season snap for the Jets. Some inside the organization believe Johnson is consumed with the public perception of his franchise, sometimes at the expense of on-the-field success. When the Jets traded quarterback Zach Wilson to the Broncos last April, Denver asked Douglas to include the final pick of the draft (257th overall). According to a source familiar with the negotiations, Johnson instructed Douglas to instead trade the 256th pick — which the Jets also owned — so New York could select “Mr. Irrelevant,” the final pick of the draft who is annually celebrated upon his selection. “Can you believe that?” the source said. “He thought he needed the Mr. Irrelevant pick to get a Brock Purdy (the final pick of the 2022 draft who has emerged as a franchise quarterback in San Francisco). I don’t think that’s ever happened in the history of the NFL: A team wanted a worse pick.” The Broncos used pick No. 256 to take offensive guard Nick Gargiulo, who is now on the Broncos’ active roster. The Jets used the “Mr. Irrelevant” pick on Alabama safety Jaylen Key, who didn’t survive the final roster cutdown and is no longer on their practice squad. Johnson weighs in on matters throughout the organization, from lineup decisions (he forced interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich to bench starting safety Tony Adams in November) to the team schedule (he wanted the Jets to practice during their bye week, much to the chagrin of team leaders). “He’s like most team owners,” the team spokesperson said. “He asks questions of his staff to better understand what their plans are.” “Your job becomes managing Woody,” a current team executive said. “That’s not unique for an NFL GM — the difference here is that not only are you managing Woody, but you have to manage all the people who influence him. That could be family, that could be media, that could be people in the building.” When Johnson left for the U.K. in 2017, his sons, Brick and Jack, were 11 and 9, respectively. When he returned, they were teenagers. Last year, Johnson started including his sons in some meetings at the team facility. For some Jets employees, the sons’ increasing involvement clarified their father’s propensity for sharing posts from X and articles from various outlets, including a blog called “Jets X-Factor,” with the organization’s top decision-makers. “When we’re discussing things, you’ll hear Woody cite something that Brick or Jack read online that’s being weighed equally against whatever opinion someone else in the department has,” said one Jets executive. “I answer to a teenager,” Douglas quipped to people close to him before the season in an acknowledgment of the perceived power dynamic. Johnson’s reference to Jeudy’s “Madden” rating was, to some in the Jets’ organization, a sign of Brick and Jack’s influence. Another example came when Johnson pushed back on signing free-agent guard John Simpson due to a lackluster “awareness” rating in Madden. The Jets signed Simpson anyway, and he has had a solid season: Pro Football Focus currently has him graded as the eighth-best guard in the NFL. The Jets spokesperson disputed the idea that Brick and Jack’s observations impact the organization’s decision-making process. “It is used as a reference point; it is not determinative,” the spokesperson said. “It’s really sad that an adult would use a misleading anecdote about teenagers to make their father look bad. It’s ridiculous, quite honestly, the idea that this was used to influence the opinion of experienced executives. “(The sons) have no roles in the organization. It’s completely ridiculous to suggest that any outside info is intended to replace the opinions of (Woody Johnson’s) staff.” The Johnson family’s behavior inside the Jets locker room has also become an issue, according to team and league sources. NFL locker rooms are restricted-access spaces typically limited to players, coaches, team personnel and media members. But Brick and Jack have brought friends — male and female — into the locker room, and current and former players and coaches told The Athletic that Woody Johnson, his wife, Suzanne Ircha Johnson, and his sons criticized players inside the locker room. In 2022, quarterback Mike White played through broken ribs in a late-season game against the Seahawks with postseason hopes on the line. White played poorly; the Jets lost and were eliminated from playoff contention. After the game, with the quarterback in the showers after throwing his helmet to the locker room floor, multiple Jets players said they heard Woody Johnson say, “You should throw your helmet, you f—ing suck.” The statement got back to White. The team spokesperson said Johnson apologized to the quarterback, who declined to comment for this story. In the postgame locker room after last year’s Week 17 loss to the Cleveland Browns, multiple players said they heard Johnson’s sons loudly disparaging certain Jets players. This year, on Halloween night, the Jets registered their first victory since Saleh’s firing four weeks earlier. It was a significant moment for a struggling team. Rodgers walked into an energized locker room with a game ball in hand, and it was expected that he’d give the ball to Ulbrich, a customary gesture when a coach gets his first NFL win. But before Rodgers could speak, Brick Johnson took another game ball and awarded it to wide receiver Garrett Wilson in a profanity-laced exclamation, which the owner’s son later posted to Instagram. Woody Johnson then gave Ulbrich the ball Rodgers had been holding. Multiple players said the energy felt drained out of the room. “It was the most awkward, cringe-worthy, brutal experience,” one player said. The high point of the Johnson-Rodgers marriage came at Rodgers’ introductory news conference, when he spoke of the Jets’ lone Super Bowl trophy — won in 1969 — looking a little “lonely.” New York entered the 2023 season as one of the league’s buzziest teams — and potentially Super Bowl contenders — and the Jets were selected to appear on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” during training camp. Johnson wore a custom-made chain featuring 80 carats of emeralds and diamonds spelling out “Woody,” a gift from star cornerback Sauce Gardner. Then Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth play of the season, and everything changed. Following surgery, Rodgers rehabbed with the goal of potentially returning at the end of the season, but only if the Jets were still in playoff contention. In Week 14, New York was mathematically eliminated with a 30-0 loss to the Dolphins. Rodgers preferred to rehab on his own in Los Angeles with an eye toward the 2024 season, but Johnson, according to team sources, insisted that Rodgers practice with the team, so the quarterback reluctantly returned to New York. When Rodgers was activated off injured reserve five days before Christmas, which resulted in the release of fullback Nick Bawden, Rodgers said on “The Pat McAfee Show” that the move wasn’t his idea. “There was a conversation: ‘Do you want to practice?’ And I said, ‘Not at the expense of somebody getting cut.’ I know how this works,” Rodgers said. “I didn’t feel like I needed to practice to continue my rehab. I could do on-the-field stuff on the side. But obviously I got overruled there.” Several Jets players and coaches — Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall, in particular — were unhappy with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett throughout the 2023 campaign. There were rumblings that Johnson wanted to fire Hackett, so Rodgers, who considers the coach a close friend, brought it up with the owner at the end of the season. The conversation “didn’t go over well” with Johnson, according to a current Jets executive. Johnson ultimately didn’t force Saleh to fire Hackett, as he had with Mike LaFleur after the 2022 season. In the offseason, Saleh tried to hire a veteran offensive coach to join the Jets staff and potentially reduce Hackett’s role, speaking with Arthur Smith, Kliff Kingsbury, Luke Getsy and Eric Bieniemy. Rodgers got on the phone in an attempt to recruit, but each coach took jobs with offensive coordinator titles elsewhere. Before this season, according to a team source, Johnson demanded that Saleh’s signature phrase — “All Gas, No Brakes” — be stripped off the walls around the facility. “Another completely out-of-context and false narrative,” the team spokesperson said. “That was removed as part of the entire organizational rebrand.” Saleh later introduced a new team motto: “Love and Regard,” which was not displayed on the facility’s walls. Rodgers and Johnson spoke on Oct. 7, just after the Jets lost to the Vikings in London to drop to 2-3, a game behind the Bills in the AFC East with Buffalo coming to MetLife Stadium the following Monday night. According to a team source, Rodgers implored Johnson to remain patient. The following morning, Saleh called Rodgers to let him know he was demoting Hackett and installing passing game coordinator Todd Downing as the new play caller. Rodgers made it clear to Saleh that he did not agree with the decision — so much so that Saleh told his staff to get backup Tyrod Taylor ready to play in case a banged-up, disgruntled Rodgers wouldn’t, according to a team source. Shortly afterward, around 10 a.m. ET, Woody and Christopher Johnson, Woody’s brother and the Jets’ vice chairman, walked into Saleh’s office. Woody told Saleh he was fired. Saleh asked why. Woody told him he didn’t think Saleh could turn the season around and that the team needed a spark. Then the Johnsons walked out of the room. Ulbrich, installed as the interim coach, went forward with Saleh’s plan to demote Hackett and managed to calm the waters with Rodgers, who hadn’t been in favor of firing Saleh, according to multiple team sources. On the Dec. 3 episode of McAfee’s show, Rodgers, in reference to the 12-2 Detroit Lions, talked about how much of a difference it makes when owners back their coaches and general managers both privately and publicly. The next day, he was asked by members of the media if he felt that Jets ownership operates in that way. “Is that a rhetorical question?” Rodgers said. “I cited an example I’ve seen. There were other examples in Green Bay, both for and maybe not, as for whoever was in charge. But I think it’s an important part of ownership to hire the right guys, set the vision and support them when the outside world is trying to tear them down.” On follow-up, he was asked again whether he believes that’s been done in New York. “I’d have to look,” he replied. “I’ll ask you guys, has there been a lot of public comments? Supportive comments?” The response from reporters that day? Not really, there have been firings. “Yeah, there’s your answer,” Rodgers replied. The Jets kept the exchange out of the transcript of Rodgers’ news conference. In addition to firing the head coach and general manager and suggesting the benching of the star quarterback, Johnson has pursued cuts across the Jets organization. This offseason, he forced Saleh to fire five coaches and wouldn’t allow Douglas to replace former assistant GM Rex Hogan (who Johnson forced Douglas to fire in January). “The open role was used to re-organize the staff,” the team spokesperson said. “The notion that he didn’t want that position replaced is untrue. The responsibilities were filled by employees who deserved promotions.” The Jets didn’t hire officials for training camp, a standard practice in the NFL, after being the most penalized team in the league in 2023 (they are the third-most penalized team in 2024). They did have officials for two joint practices with the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, respectively. Several men from Johnson’s investment group have been attending free agent, draft and other football operations meetings at Johnson’s behest over the last year, according to a current Jets executive. They’ve also interviewed Jets employees from across the organization about their roles and ways they feel the Jets can improve. “It was a positive initiative that identified real gaps in process and communication and collaboration,” the Jets spokesperson said. “(Woody Johnson) values the independent feedback. It’s a way to avoid groupthink. We learned a lot from it.” Multiple Jets employees refer to the group of men as “The Bobs,” a nod to the condescending corporate efficiency consultants from the film “Office Space.” The arrival of “The Bobs” has only heightened a sense of dread around the building, where some employees don’t feel like they can speak freely. “There’s no nice way to say what we need to say, which is: Unless we drastically alter our culture and the way we do things from the top down, we have no chance,” one executive said. “There’s not a comfortable environment where you can speak your mind and try to address things that could improve the situation. You have to tiptoe around it.” The Jets spokesperson disputed that characterization. “That’s just a false premise,” the spokesperson said. “(Woody Johnson) really just seeks out and welcomes feedback and debate. We wouldn’t have been named one of the best places to work in New Jersey if people thought that way … there’s never been a complaint.” As recently as three-and-a-half years ago, there was a different atmosphere at Florham Park. Woody Johnson’s absence during the first Trump presidential term meant that Christopher was running the show. Like Woody, Christopher Johnson was influenced perhaps too heavily by media coverage — one team source said he was known to lean on prominent media members for advice during his head coach and GM searches in 2019 — but the impression he gave to many in the building was that he wanted to give the keys to the people he hired and let them take the wheel. “Chris was really, really laid back,” said a former Jets coach. “He’s not a person with any type of ego. When he would talk with you, he was really a regular dude. He never, ever acted like he was the owner or he was in charge; he was just basically trying to get along.” When Christopher Johnson hired Douglas (in 2019) and Saleh (in 2021), both were under the impression that, when he returned, Woody Johnson would take a similarly hands-off approach. They quickly learned how wrong that assumption was as Woody took control and Chris stepped back. “It’s not like he just disappeared, but you wouldn’t know if Chris was in the building or even in the room with you,” a former Jets executive said. “He’s just so quiet and reserved. And that’s not a bad thing.” Some Jets employees hoped Woody might retake his ambassadorship in the U.K. after Donald Trump was elected president in November, which would once again put Christoper in charge. But on Dec. 2, Trump nominated billionaire Arkansas investment banker Warren Stephens to the post. According to team sources, the decision came as a surprise to the Jets owner. As the Jets close the 2024 season, they’ll enter an offseason promising wholesale change, familiar territory for an organization that hasn’t found much stability since Johnson bought the franchise from Leon Hess in 2000. In 25 years, the Jets have employed eight interim or full-time head coaches (nine if you count Belichick) and seven general managers. They’ll need another new head coach and general manager and must decide if they want to bring Rodgers back for what would be his 21st NFL season – if he wants to return. Those decisions remain Woody Johnson’s to make. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| WHAT IF THE NFL HAD A PLAYOFF COMMITTEE?The NFL’s playoff system is based on concrete game results, pre-existing tiebreakers and other regulations spelled out in advance in black-and-white. But what if it was set up like the College Football Playoffs, with a few rules and then a “selection committee”? To imagine that, we broke the NFL down into four conferences, 2 made up from the North/West divisions of each conference. Two from the South/East divisions. Let us also assume that the panel, as well as the public, believes the two Northwest Conferences have a higher standard of play, much like the SEC and Big Ten enjoy in the NCAA activities. The two Southeast Conferences play the roles of the ACC and Big 12. In this model, we have just completed our 14-game season with conference championship results corresponding to the first meetings between the NFL teams this year Detroit wins the NNW over Minnesota, 31-29Philadelphia wins the NSE over Washington, 26-18Kansas City has not played Pittsburgh yet, let’s give the Steelers the 20-17 upset winHouston beat Buffalo 23-20 Boldfaced teams in championship games, red team won NFC NorthwestDetroit NNW 12-2Minnesota NNW 12-2Green Bay NNW 10-4LA Rams NNW 8-6Seattle NNW 8-6Arizona NNW 7-7San Francisco NNW 6-8Chicago NNW 4-10 NFC SoutheastPhiladelphia NSE 12-2Washington NSE 9-5Tampa Bay NSE 8-6Atlanta NSE 7-7Dallas NSE 6-8New Orleans NSE 5-9Carolina NSE 3-11NY Giants NSE 2-12 AFC NorthwestKansas City ANW 13-1Pittsburgh ANW 10-4Baltimore ANW 9-5Denver ANW 9-5LA Chargers ANW 8-6Cincinnati ANW 6-8Cleveland ANW 3-11Las Vegas ANW 2-12 AFC SoutheastBuffalo ASE 11-3Houston ASE 9-5Indianapolis ASE 6-8Miami ASE 6-8New York Jets ASE 4-10Jacksonville ASE 3-11Tennessee ASE 3-11New England ASE 3-11 So the four top seeds are with byes are 1 – DETROIT 2 – PHILADELPHIA 3 – PITTSBURGH 4 – HOUSTON Now how does the committee choose and seed the other 8 playoff teams Minnesota 12-2, and narrow losers to the overall top seed from a top 2 conference gets number 5. Kansas City 13-1, but unimpressive in a top 2 conference gets number 6. Buffalo 11-3 and more impressive in a weak conference gets number 7. Green Bay 10-4 and not in a power conference championship game (think the Vols) get the number 8 Four to go – three 9-5 teams. Baltimore 9-5, a blue blood from a power conference gets number 9 Denver 9-5 in a power conference, but a surprise (think Indiana) gets number 10 Two to go – 9-5 Washington and the 8-6 teams, the Rams, Seattle and Chargers from power conferences plus Tampa Bay from a lesser conference are the committee considerations. Washington has the best record, but the power conferences want their teams. Does the NNW get its way? And “everyone” knows Tampa Bay is better than Washington with its late run. The committee decides and the bracket looks like this – 1 – DETROIT 5 – MINNESOTA12 – WASHINGTON 4 – HOUSTON 8 – GREEN BAY 9 – BALTIMORE 2 – PHILADELPHIA 6 – KANSAS CITY11 – LA RAMS 3 – PITTSBURGH 7 – BUFFALO 10 – DENVER The power conferences get 4 teams each, the lesser conferences get two each. Complaints galore from the Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers! NFC NorthwestDetroit NNW 12-2Minnesota NNW 12-2Green Bay NNW 10-4LA Rams NNW 8-6Seattle NNW 8-6Arizona NNW 7-7San Francisco NNW 6-8Chicago NNW 4-10 NFC SoutheastPhiladelphia NSE 12-2Washington NSE 9-5Tampa Bay NSE 8-6Atlanta NSE 7-7Dallas NSE 6-8New Orleans NSE 5-9Carolina NSE 3-11NY Giants NSE 2-12 AFC NorthwestKansas City ANW 13-1Pittsburgh ANW 10-4Baltimore ANW 9-5Denver ANW 9-5LA Chargers ANW 8-6Cincinnati ANW 6-8Cleveland ANW 3-11Las Vegas ANW 2-12 AFC SoutheastBuffalo ASE 11-3Houston ASE 9-5Indianapolis ASE 6-8Miami ASE 6-8New York Jets ASE 4-10Jacksonville ASE 3-11Tennessee ASE 3-11New England ASE 3-11 |
| THE WORST DECISIONSBill Barnwell with a long take on recent bad decisions. You can probably guess the worst and the Buccaneers get credit for the least damaging bad decision (some explanations removed, some edited): I’ve gone through the NFL’s 32 franchises and identified the worst decision each has made over the past five years, going back to the start of 2020. Then, I’ve ranked those decisions from least damaging to most damaging. These decisions cut in all kinds of different directions. Many of them are additions to the roster, either via free agency, the draft or trades. Some are coaching choices. Tampering violations are even in the running. In each case, I’m evaluating the outcome. If the process was clearly bad at the time, that’s a bonus, but this is measuring the severity of each wrong choice, not why something happened. There are a few trends that pop up. Players get drafted at low-ceiling positions. Teams overestimate their ability to sign the right player in free agency. Trades for quarterbacks go horribly wrong. Those failures shouldn’t discourage teams from signing free agents or taking big swings on passers, but they do contextualize the risk. Things can go very, very wrong. 32. Tampa Bay BuccaneersBiggest mistake: Signing Russell Gage to a three-year, $30 million contract (2022)The Bucs have won a Super Bowl in this time period and are on track to make their fifth straight playoff appearance. As a result, it’s hard to find too much fault in what general manager Jason Licht & Co. have done. Some moves have worked better than others, but they have been one of the most successful franchises over the past half-decade. Tampa’s worst move is more a victim of bad circumstance and injury luck than anything else. 31. Green Bay PackersBiggest mistake: Using first-round picks on Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt (2022)General manager Brian Gutekunst has nailed many of the decisions he has made since taking over the Packers in 2018, and even the worst decisions he has made have been more of the mild mistake variety than anything egregious. With a commitment to building through the draft, he has simultaneously constructed the youngest team and a very viable threat to come out of the NFC this season. He’s good. One of the few missteps Gutekunst has made, though, came on April 28, 2022. The Packers had two first-round picks, having their own and the first-rounder they acquired from the Raiders as part of the Davante Adams deal. Having used five of the team’s previous Day 1 and Day 2 picks on offensive players, it wasn’t a surprise that he wanted to restock the cupboard on defense. The guys he picked just didn’t hit. Wyatt, the No. 28 pick, has been a part-time player. He had three sacks in the first three games this season, but he hasn’t found that same level of form after an ankle injury he sustained in Week 4. The hope was that Wyatt would develop into a disruptive interior pass rusher, but he has 11 sacks in 44 games in Green Bay. 30. Pittsburgh SteelersBiggest mistake: Using a first-round pick on Kenny Pickett (2022)Sometimes, the pieces just come together. With Ben Roethlisberger retiring after the 2021 campaign, the Steelers needed a quarterback. While it wasn’t a great class for signal-callers, the top prospect available just happened to have spent five years down the road at the University of Pittsburgh. Coming off a season with more than 4,300 passing yards and 42 touchdowns, it was no surprise when the Steelers took Pickett. Any team that drafts a quarterback in Round 1 hopes it has found its guy for the next decade. It didn’t quite go that way in Pittsburgh, where Pickett made 24 starts over two seasons. The Steelers gave up on him after last season, trading him to the Eagles for a swap of third- and fourth-round picks and a pair of seventh-rounders. It’s the most notable in a series of disappointing first-round picks by the organization. 29. Detroit LionsBiggest mistake: Drafting Jeff Okudah with the No. 3 overall pick (2020) It’s tough to take fault with too many of the decisions Brad Holmes has made during his excellent run as Lions general manager since 2021, so I have to sneak all the way back to the final season of the Matt Patricia/Bob Quinn era. I’d classify this move more as bad luck than a bad process, but there’s no arguing it didn’t work out. 28. Buffalo BillsBiggest mistake: Signing Von Miller to a six-year, $120 million contract (2022)When you remember that the Bills’ 2021 postseason ended with those 13 seconds, it’s easy to understand why they went all-in to add Miller. The future Hall of Famer was coming off a wildly impressive postseason run to a Super Bowl title with the Rams, and Buffalo surely wanted a great pass rusher to put it over the top as it tried to figuratively and literally chase down Patrick Mahomes. To land Miller, though, the Bills had to fully guarantee two years and most of a third season at the cost of $45 million. Buffalo’s worst nightmare came true when Miller tore an ACL for the second time in his career before the end of his debut season in Buffalo..27. Washington CommandersBiggest mistake: Drafting Emmanuel Forbes with the No. 16 pick (2023)First-round picks aren’t locks to succeed. About 40% of Round 1 selections taken since the league moved to the slotted draft format in 2011 have either been cut before the end of their original deals or failed to earn a fifth-year option, which is far closer to a coin flip than some might expect. The upside of landing a potential difference-maker on a bargain deal for five years is what makes those picks valuable. Not many first-round picks are cut midway through their second season in the league, though. 26. Philadelphia EaglesBiggest mistake: Signing James Bradberry to a three-year, $38 million contract (2023)Few players might qualify as one of their organization’s best and worst moves, but Bradberry is one of the exceptions. A cap casualty by the Giants in 2022 after no team wanted to absorb his contract in a trade, he signed a one-year, $7.3 million deal with the Eagles in May and excelled, earning a second-team All-Pro nod. A free agent after the season, the Eagles let Bradberry hit the market and briefly flirted with trading away Darius Slay Jr. before bringing both back. Bradberry’s three-year deal didn’t go well. In Year 1, he allowed a 114.3 passer rating in coverage, up nearly 63 points from where he had been in 2022. He was one of the primary culprits as the defense collapsed during the second half of the season. 25. Dallas CowboysBiggest mistake: Choosing Michael Gallup over Amari Cooper (2022) 24. Cincinnati BengalsBiggest mistake: Signing Trae Waynes to a three-year, $42 million deal (2020)While Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were on rookie deals, the Bengals went on a free agent spending spree to add defenders. Some of those moves worked out well, as edge rusher Trey Hendrickson became a star after leaving the Saints. DJ Reader pushed the pocket on the interior. Chidobe Awuzie was a valuable cornerback and even pushed toward an All-Pro level of play before tearing an ACL in 2022. The defense was good enough to shut out the Chiefs in the second half of the 2021 AFC Championship Game and push the Bengals to the Super Bowl. Cincinnati’s biggest deal, in terms of average salary, was the one that failed most spectacularly. Waynes hadn’t always been Mike Zimmer’s favorite cornerback in Minnesota, but after three years in the starting lineup, the 2015 first-round pick appeared to have established himself as a useful contributor. The Bengals liked what they saw and signed the 27-year-old to a three-year deal in March 2020, which included nearly $31 million in practical guarantees. Waynes endured a disastrous time in Cincinnati 23. New Orleans SaintsBiggest mistake: Handing Cameron Jordan a two-year, $27.9 million extension (2023)Owing to their active indignance at being forced to operate under the rules of the salary cap, every Saints move in the post-Drew Brees era has to be interpreted through two different lenses. One is the same on-field production view through which every other team operates. The other is within the context of the league’s worst cap situation and the perennial fight the organization wages to put off eating its financial vegetables. Signing Jordan to an extension was a bit of both. Most players are not getting multiyear guarantees in their mid-30s for a reason, though, and Jordan is an example of why. 22. Kansas City ChiefsBiggest mistake: Using a first-round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020)Even the greatest players in football history make evaluation mistakes. Before the 2020 draft, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach texted Patrick Mahomes to ask the quarterback who he wanted at the end of the first round. Mahomes’ response was simple: “Clyde.” While I suppose it’s possible he wanted a different Clyde, Veach chose Edwards-Helaire. At the time, this was seen as a luxury pick for a team stocked everywhere and therefore could justify using a first-round pick on a running back.And while it felt like the Chiefs could afford a luxury pick, they missed out on a number of superior options who went at the top of the second round. The next two backs off the board were D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor. Xavier McKinney and Robert Hunt, two of the top free agents in the 2024 class, were taken among the next 10 selections. Pro Bowlers such as Antoine Winfield Jr., Jaylon Johnson and Trevon Diggs weren’t far behind. The very next player drafted after Edwards-Helaire has tormented the Chiefs personally: Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals. 21. New York GiantsBiggest mistake: Signing Kenny Golladay to a four-year, $72 million contract (2021)Should this be failing to bring back Saquon Barkley or signing Daniel Jones to a massive extension? Maybe. Barkley has been brilliant for the Eagles this season, but he had a significant injury history and wasn’t going to push a rebuilding Giants team into contention. Plus, rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. has done a credible job as his replacement. The decision to franchise Jones was an obvious mistake at the time, but he was coming off a successful season, which meant New York had a case to do it. Everything about the Golladay contract, though, was a fiasco. 20. Baltimore RavensBiggest mistake: Signing Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year, $15 million contract (2023)There aren’t many transactions that lead to widespread confusion in text chains around the NFL, and the ones that do almost never involve the Ravens. Few people were surprised after Beckham signed with Baltimore, and when the deal was reported as $15 million, most assumed it included a small guarantee and significant incentives. Business as usual for Baltimore. When it became clear that virtually all of the contract was guaranteed, though, the texts started flying. 19. Indianapolis ColtsBiggest mistake: Trading 1st and 3rd-round picks to the Eagles for Carson Wentz (2021)In one of what feels like an endless string of attempts to replace Andrew Luck, the Colts felt like they were landing their long-term solution under center when they traded a third-round pick in 2021 and a conditional pick in 2022 to the Eagles for Wentz. 18. Los Angeles ChargersBiggest mistake: Signing J.C. Jackson to a five-year, $82.5 million contract (2022)With coach Brandon Staley rebuilding the defense to his liking in Los Angeles, Jackson was supposed to be the chess piece that unlocked the playbook. The cornerback’s ability to play man coverage against top receivers in New England made the 2018 undrafted free agent a “must have” for Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, who were convinced enough by four years of scouting Jackson to give him one of the largest defensive back contracts in league history. Jackson never seemed to fit in Los Angeles 17. Minnesota VikingsBiggest mistake: Failing to land any useful players on Days 1 and 2 of the draft (2022)It’s too early to judge the major investments general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made in quarterback J.J. McCarthy and edge rusher Dallas Turner atop the 2024 draft, but it’s fair to say he didn’t fare well in his debut draft. Though he has done excellent work in free agency and found a talented wideout (Jordan Addison) in the first round of the 2023 draft, it’s difficult to get less than what the Vikings landed out of their top picks in 2022. Adofo-Mensah made a pair of trades within the NFC North, moving down in deals that landed the Lions’ Jameson Williams and the Packers’ Christian Watson. I won’t take issue with those trades, given what advanced draft charts suggest about the moves — and it shouldn’t matter which prospect those teams select in justifying the deal for Adofo-Mensah — but he has to nail some of his picks if he’s going to make any draft philosophy work. The Vikings went 0-for-4. Their first pick, safety Lewis Cine, played just two defensive snaps in four games before suffering a career-altering leg injury on special teams. He should be applauded for making it back to the league, but he played just eight more defensive snaps for the Vikings before joining the Bills, where he made his debut on special teams last week. Maybe that pick could be chalked up to bad luck, but the next one was second-round corner Andrew Booth Jr., who spent most of the year on the bench before tearing his meniscus. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores didn’t seem to value Booth, who was traded to the Cowboys after his second season. Fellow second-rounder Ed Ingram started for two-plus years at guard, but he was a consistent liability on the line before being benched last month. And Brian Asamoah, the team’s third-round pick, has played just 188 defensive snaps over three seasons, including 33 this season. That’s four top-70 picks and one player who even had a shot at starting duties over the past three seasons, and even he was one of the worst regulars at his position. Thankfully, Adofo-Mensah has made enough smart decisions elsewhere to overcome a rough start during his time in charge in Minnesota. 16. Miami DolphinsBiggest mistake: Tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton (2019-22)There are some grey areas the NFL seems willing to tolerate when it comes to its rulebook. It’s remarkable to see how many free agent contracts teams are somehow able to negotiate in the opening hours of the league’s “legal tampering period,” a phrase which doesn’t make sense in any other context. Teams might have conversations with agents about whether their players are happy in their current location or if they would be interested in a potential trade. Attempting to make offers to players and coaches who are under contract to other teams, however, crosses the line for the NFL 15. Arizona CardinalsBiggest mistake: Signing Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim to contract extensions (2022)Between the two, Keim’s new deal seemed more curious than that of his head coach. Though the Cardinals were coming off an 11-6 season and a playoff berth, Keim’s recent track record in the draft had already looked abysmal. He had whiffed on his first-rounders in 2016 (Robert Nkemdiche), 2017 (Haason Reddick), 2018 (Josh Rosen) and 2020 (Isaiah Simmons). Reddick had spent years playing out of position before excelling in his final season as an edge rusher, but the team lost him in free agency. His only first-round pick who became a success was Kyler Murray, who was drafted in 2019 to replace Rosen after one season. Kingsbury, likewise, was hired to replace Steve Wilks, who was a one-and-done coach in 2018. 14. Las Vegas RaidersBiggest mistake: Hiring Josh McDaniels as coach (2022)The Raiders should have known better. McDaniels had been fired midway through his second season with the Broncos in 2010, then left the Colts at the altar in 2018 after agreeing to join the organization and even hiring coaches for his staff. Despite the fact that the Raiders’ players wanted to keep interim coach Rich Bisaccia, who was elevated to that position after Jon Gruden resigned, for the permanent job after a late-season surge in 2021 produced a surprising trip to the postseason, team owner Mark Davis let Bisaccia leave and hired McDaniels and fellow Patriots executive Dave Ziegler to run the organization. A spectacular failure followed. McDaniels’ solution invariably seemed to be adding Patriots to the team, as the Raiders imported Chandler Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Jakobi Meyers and Brandon Bolden with limited success. 13. Los Angeles RamsBiggest mistake: Signing Allen Robinson to a three-year, $46.5 million contract (2022)General manager Les Snead has gotten a lot of things right over the past five seasons, but two free agent signings have gone spectacularly wrong. One was signing Jonah Jackson this offseason. Their plan for the former Lions guard fell quickly by the wayside because of injuries and Steve Avila’s struggles to land comfortably at center. Jackson signed for a larger average annual salary than Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney this offseason, but he has been unused in each of the past five games. There’s a chance his Rams career might be over after being paid $25 million for three games. Until that happens, the Robinson deal has to be an even messier acquisition. 12. Seattle SeahawksBiggest mistake: Trading two first-round picks for Jamal Adams (2020)In the hopes of building a Super Bowl contender around Russell Wilson and revitalizing a defense that had gone stale, coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider shipped a pair of first-round picks for a young star in his prime. With Adams seemingly at odds with Jets management, the Seahawks pounced on a potential star by sending three picks to New York for Adams and a fourth-round pick. It was tough to believe Adams could provide outsized value at safety given his skill set. In Year 1, though, he had a whopping 9.5 sacks and was named a second-team All-Pro, albeit with middling coverage numbers. He also missed four games because of a groin injury. Bundle plan and start streaming something for everyone today! The injuries, sadly, began to pile up for Adams after that The picks the Seahawks sent to New York turned into standout players. The Jets’ 2021 first-rounder Christian Darrisaw became an excellent left tackle for the Vikings. (The Jets used their pick to trade up for guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, who has battled injury issues in New York.) Seattle’s 2022 selection became the No. 10 overall pick, which the Jets used on star wideout Garrett Wilson. Much of the pain of the Adams deal, of course, was mitigated by the success of Seattle’s trade that sent Wilson to Denver. 11. Chicago BearsBiggest mistake: Trading a second-round pick for Chase Claypool (2022)Bears general manager Ryan Poles wanted a playmaker for struggling quarterback Justin Fields. Makes sense. The price he paid? The player he targeted? Less so. At the 2022 deadline, a desperate Poles sent a second-rounder to the Steelers to acquire Claypool, who had fallen out of favor in Pittsburgh. At the time, Bears fans seemed to justify the deal by saying there was no way the organization would find a better receiver in free agency. In the best-case scenario, Chicago was sending a useful pick to Pittsburgh for the right to pay Claypool a market-value deal. Though it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad, Poles then made a similar decision in 2023 by trading another second-round pick to the Commanders for Montez Sweat before signing the edge rusher to a four-year, $98 million deal. Sweat is a good player, but he has 4.5 sacks and nine knockdowns this season, while free agent signings Jonathan Greenard, Danielle Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkel have been far more productive elsewhere 10. Tennessee TitansBiggest mistake: Swapping out A.J. Brown for Treylon Burks in a trade with the Eagles (2022)Making mistakes at quarterback can get a general manager fired. It happens less often at wide receiver, but the choices former Tennessee GM Jon Robinson made in 2022 might have been what ended his run that December. First, the Titans didn’t seem to show much interest in extending Brown’s contract, with the wideout suggesting the offer from the organization ranged between $16 million and $20 million per year. On Day 1 of the draft in April, the Titans traded Brown to the Eagles, who gave him a four-year, $100 million contract as part of the deal. 9. New England PatriotsBiggest mistake: Hiring Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as the lead architects for the offense (2022)If this stretched back to 2019, I could include New England drafting N’Keal Harry before DK Metcalf or paying Antonio Brown $10.5 million for one game. Instead, let’s go back to what might have been the point of no return for Bill Belichick in New England. After losing longtime coordinator Josh McDaniels to the head coaching job in Las Vegas, Belichick had an opening at offensive coordinator. With a staff full of people he had either coached, coached alongside or fathered, the list of potential candidates to replace McDaniels didn’t fall far from the tree. While the Patriots technically never hired an offensive coordinator, Belichick handed over control of the offense to two former NFL head coaches who had made their names coordinating other elements of the roster. Coming off a playoff appearance in Mac Jones’ rookie season, the offense quickly proved to be a disaster. 8. Atlanta FalconsBiggest mistake: Signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract (2024)No need for a reminder about this one, given that the Falcons just benched Cousins on Tuesday. The logic of signing Cousins to a significant deal and then using a first-round pick on Penix always seemed flimsy, but it’s only getting worse. Unless the Falcons can find a trade partner for Cousins this offseason, they’ll likely cut him to avoid triggering a $10 million bonus for 2026, which guarantees in March 2025. For 14 starts from a player whose QBR ranks 22nd in the league, they will end up paying $85 million, minus any potential offset if he signs for the minimum somewhere else next offseason. 7. Houston TexansBiggest mistake: Trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals (2020)We’ve seen what great wide receivers can fetch in their primes. In the case of the trades of Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill, each team landed at least one first-round pick for its star wide receiver. The Texans didn’t land a first-rounder when they sent Hopkins to the Cardinals. They picked up a second-rounder and even swapped fourth-rounders with Arizona. 6. Jacksonville JaguarsBiggest mistake: Hiring Urban Meyer as coach (2021)There are so many moments from the Meyer era that could be considered embarrassing decisions and situations in their own right. 5. Carolina PanthersBiggest mistake: Trading DJ Moore and multiple first-round picks to the Bears to move up to draft Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick (2023)Frankly, this could be even worse. Caleb Williams hasn’t been the instant success many projected in Chicago, although it seems clear that a lot of the blame for his struggles is being pinned on a mostly deposed coaching staff. Young has turned around his career after being benched earlier this season and ranks 19th in QBR over the past month. NFL teams likely would still take Williams over Young given their respective levels of play and the extra year of cost control Williams has remaining on his deal, but this doesn’t look generationally bad in the way it might have in September. It hasn’t been anything close to good for the Panthers, though. The 2023 pick they traded to the Bears eventually turned into Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who has been outstanding in recent weeks while making a late All-Pro push. Moore has run hot and cold in Chicago, but the Panthers have been desperate to add help at receiver since trading him, using two top-40 picks at wide receiver while acquiring a handful of veterans in free agency and trades. None of the moves has clearly paid off. If Young pans out, this deal still would be disappointing for Carolina. And if he doesn’t, well, it’s a nightmare. 4. San Francisco 49ersBiggest mistake: Trading three first-round picks to move up for Trey Lance (2021)Whatever logic there might have been in making the move, there’s no way to treat it as anything but a failure after the fact. The 49ers gave up three first-round picks to move up to No. 3 in the 2021 draft; their selection eventually went to the Cowboys and became Micah Parsons. The Dolphins used the picks the 49ers sent as part of swaps that added Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb to their roster. The missing cost-controlled talent San Francisco lost as part of the Lance and Christian McCaffrey deals turned into meaningful roles for Logan Ryan and Oren Burks in Super Bowl LVIII and Isaac Yiadom and De’Vondre Campbell this season. It will only hurt more as Purdy earns a massive raise this offseason. 3. New York JetsBiggest mistake: Trading for Aaron Rodgers (2023)This could just as easily be drafting Zach Wilson ahead of Ja’Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, Pat Surtain, DeVonta Smith and Micah Parsons in the top 12 of the 2021 draft. There are also other failed Jets free agent signings and nearly inexplicable trades to consider. The Rodgers trade stands head and shoulders above the rest because it came with so much baggage. Trading for him made the Jets hire Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator. It led them to sign Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard as free agents and bring on Tim Boyle as a backup quarterback. The trade for Davante Adams wouldn’t have happened if the Jets weren’t doing whatever they could to try to kick-start a moribund offense with Rodgers’ old friend from Green Bay. 2. Denver BroncosBiggest mistake: Trading for (and extending) Russell Wilson (2022)I liked the decision to trade for Wilson at the time, but you don’t need me to explain how it panned out. The Broncos sent two first-round picks, two second-round picks and three players to the Seahawks in the deal. The two first-rounders alone turned into cornerstones in left tackle Charles Cross and cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Derick Hall and Boye Mafe, the two second-rounders, have flashed up front on defense. On top of that, the Broncos gave Wilson a massive extension after completing the deal. 1. Cleveland BrownsBiggest mistake: Trading for Deshaun Watson and signing him to a five-year, $230 million contract (2022)What else could it be? In addition to the decision to build the franchise around a player who had been accused of more than 20 cases of sexual assault and inappropriate conduct, the Browns paid a spectacular premium to acquire the quarterback from the Texans. After Watson’s camp initially removed the Browns from the running, Cleveland responded by giving Watson a fully guaranteed deal worth $230 million, which included financial protections if he were to be suspended by the league, as he would be for a large part of the 2022 campaign. The Browns also sent three first-round picks to the Texans as the bulk of the package to acquire Watson, with Houston using those selections to move around the draft and revitalize its organization. By my estimate, Cleveland spent more than $300 million between cash and draft capital to acquire him. It also let go of Baker Mayfield, who has been a competent starter at a fraction of that cost for the Buccaneers since the start of last season. In return, the Browns landed a quarterback who ranked last in QBR across his 19 starts with them. Watson was overseeing one of the worst offenses in league history this season before tearing his Achilles in October. The team is still on the hook for more than $90 million in guaranteed money after this season. It’s difficult to imagine how a trade could go any worse than this deal has for Cleveland. |
