|
BIG MONEY RUNNING BACK DEALS
Bill Barnwell looks at big money running backs.
He previewed his opus with this tweet:
@billbarnwell
The big ($12m+ AAV) RB contracts…
CMC – done for year
Henry – out indefinitely
Cook – out indefinitely
Kamara – out injured
Zeke – playing through injury
Aaron Jones – just back from injury
Chubb – missed two games with injury but playing well
Mixon – very good
And now, the very long version:
If you play fantasy football, you’ve probably noticed that this hasn’t been a great season for the league’s most prominent running backs. This past week alone saw Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey and Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook leave games due to injuries, with the former now out for the season. The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott limped in and out of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Raiders. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara weren’t in the lineup after suffering injuries earlier this season.
The rash of absences and injuries leads to another round of the seemingly endless debate surrounding one of the league’s most conspicuous positions. Are NFL teams who pay running backs significant money doomed to regret their decision? The conversation gets folded into broader arguments about running backs in the NFL, some of which are bad faith, but it would be impossible to pay attention to the league and not notice how difficult it has been for running backs to sustain their production deep into their second contracts.
The more nuanced position that has popped up over the past few years, both inside and outside of the league, is to acknowledge that running back contracts are generally a bad idea but that a specific deal is likely to work out. Everyone knows the rules at this point, but backs routinely get held up as the exception to the overwhelming evidence that these contracts don’t often work out.
So today, I’ll run through the highest-paid backs in football and evaluate what the arguments were for those players to be the “exceptions” at the time they signed their deals, as well as what has since happened. There are eight backs in the NFL whose contracts have an annual average value (AAV) of $12 million or more, with the next tier topping out at $8 million. It seems reasonable to focus on those top eight backs. It should be noted that this group doesn’t include Todd Gurley II, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson, each of whom signed deals for more than $12 million over the past three years, only for their teams to abandon those deals before the 2021 season.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
AAV: $16 million
Why he was different: McCaffrey’s track record of health before signing his extension in 2020 was pristine. The Stanford star missed one game in school because of a pulled groin and sat out by choice for a bowl game, but he had otherwise been available for every single contest between getting to college and finishing his third pro season. The Panthers had upped McCaffrey’s snap count to north of 90% in 2018 and 2019 with no ill effects. Any player can get injured, but there was no reason to think that McCaffrey would suddenly struggle to stay on the field.
What has happened since: McCaffrey has struggled to stay on the field. The 25-year-old has started and finished just seven games over the past two seasons while dealing with a sprained shoulder, thigh and hamstring issues, and injuries to both ankles. An undisclosed injury to his ankle suffered during Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins forced McCaffrey from the game and to injured reserve for the second time in 2021, ending the star back’s season.
McCaffrey has been productive when available, but the only realistic way to look at his 2019 and 2020 seasons is as two lost years. If the Panthers had gone year-to-year with McCaffrey, they would have paid their star back about $10 million for those two frustrating campaigns. Instead, they paid McCaffrey just over $30.5 million. He’s still on the books for $44 million over the next four seasons, a deal McCaffrey probably wouldn’t match in free agency this offseason if he were on the market.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
AAV: $15 million
Why he was different: Unlike backs who had emerged after being drafted in the middle and later rounds, Elliott was a premium, throwback prospect. Like McCaffrey, Elliott had been remarkably healthy for a running back, with only a wrist injury in college and a strained hamstring suffered during the preseason of his rookie campaign as notable ailments.
Elliott had missed eight games during his first three seasons, but those included two meaningless Week 17 games and a six-game suspension for domestic abuse. The Cowboys’ offense fell off precipitously during Elliott’s suspension, leading to a widely held argument that Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott needed Elliott on the field to play at a high level. As a team that ran at the seventh-highest rate in football in neutral situations on early downs between 2016 and 2018, the Cowboys were built around Elliott. You have to pay that guy.
What has happened since: Elliott has missed only one game over the past three seasons but has evenly split playing time with backup Tony Pollard of late. Elliott averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per reception over his first three years in the league; since signing his extension, those numbers are down to 4.3 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per reception.
I think everyone would still tell you that Elliott’s a solid runner, but the explosiveness that marked Zeke’s younger years has mostly disappeared. Over the first three years of his career, Elliott ripped off a 20-plus-yard run about once every 29 carries. Since signing his extension, Elliott has done that once every 78 carries. Pollard, who has 287 carries to Elliott’s 705 attempts over the past three years, has more runs for 20 or more yards than Elliott does.
NFL Next Gen Stats has a model that uses the location, orientation and speed of every person on the field to estimate how many rushing yards a player should have produced on his carries. We don’t have that data for the first two seasons of Elliott’s career, but the year-by-year trend isn’t promising. Elliott averaged 0.53 more rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt in 2018, with that mark falling to 0.41 RYOE in 2019 and 0.09 RYOE in 2020. Elliott is back up to 0.24 rush yards over expectation this season, but he comfortably trails Pollard, who is at 0.70 yards over expectation per attempt.
The 2020 season also flipped the story surrounding Prescott and Elliott on its head. With Prescott sidelined for the year by his ankle injury, Elliott’s performance stalled. The star back was missing at least two of his starting linemen for most of the season, but few people gave those linemen credit for making Elliott’s life easier when the Ohio State product established himself as one of the league’s most promising backs. During that stretch when Elliott was suspended, Prescott’s numbers notably dropped off when legendary left tackle Tyron Smith also went down, with Adrian Clayborn famously sacking Prescott six times in a single game.
Over the past three years, Prescott has a 67.6 QBR with Elliott on the field and a 68.2 QBR with Pollard taking his place. The Cowboys have also moved toward a more pass-happy attack in the process. Elliott’s still a useful player, of course, but he has gone from being the focal point of the Dallas offense to a less-effective secondary piece. It’s reasonable to wonder if Elliott’s even the best back on the Dallas roster right now. The Cowboys are basically locked in to one more year with Elliott for cap reasons in 2022.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
AAV: $15 million
Why he was different: Another back who was remarkably healthy during his first three seasons in the league, the 2017 third-round selection missed just two games due to injury before signing an extension in 2020. Kamara’s role with the Saints was also unique, with more of his production coming via the air than most other backs. Nearly one-third of Kamara’s touches over his first three seasons came via the pass game, taking him away from the pounding other backs might take between the tackles.
What has happened since: Kamara was generally healthy in 2020 outside of a trip to the COVID-19 list and remained productive, leading the league with 21 touchdowns. But 2021 hasn’t been quite as enjoyable, as Kamara has missed the past three games because of a knee injury. Missing the starting running back (Kamara), quarterback (Jameis Winston) and lead wide receiver (Michael Thomas), the Saints have lost all three of those games, averaging just under 19 points per contest.
Even before the injury, though, Kamara hadn’t been an effective runner in 2021. After averaging 5.0 yards per carry through his first four years in the NFL, Kamara was down to 3.6 yards per carry before the injury. It seems fair to chalk that up to added attention from defenses that didn’t need to worry themselves with Drew Brees at quarterback, but the RYOE metric accounts for where defenders are on the field and where they’re heading at the snap. And RYOE had Kamara as something close to an average runner in 2018 and 2019 before a much more impressive performance in 2020, when Kamara was 0.55 yards better than an average back would have been in the same situations per rush attempt.
But in 2021, Kamara has been a mess. He has run for 104 yards fewer than a typical back would have in the same situations, for an average of minus-0.72 RYOE. That’s 171st out of 178 backs with 100 carries or more over the past four seasons. Kamara was still effective as a receiver, but the guys at the bottom of that list are backs who generally lost their jobs and/or replacement-level backs who weren’t being paid a premium. Great receiving backs who aren’t necessarily difference-makers on the ground are valuable, but we’ve seen players like Austin Ekeler and Kareem Hunt get much smaller deals than the one Kamara took home. This might just be a one-year aberration, but the Saints haven’t gotten much out of their star back this season.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
AAV: $12.6 million
Why he was different: I don’t think Cook was really considered different at the time he signed his deal. Unlike the other backs we’ve talked about so far, who had mostly avoided injuries as pro runners, Cook had already missed 19 of his first 48 pro games and been forced from six others by injuries. The former Florida State standout’s best season came playing for Gary Kubiak, who had been part of the Mike Shanahan scheme that has propelled unheralded back after unheralded back to stardom. Those are two pretty significant red flags for a possible Cook contract.
Of course, Cook was also very productive when he was on the field. Between 2018 and 2019, Cook pieced together a healthy run of 19 games when he averaged just under five yards per carry, racked up 2,187 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 touchdowns. If the Vikings could get that player without the injuries, they would be thrilled, so they paid accordingly.
What has happened since: Cook has been very good when healthy, but injuries remain an issue. In 2020, Cook was forced out of a loss against the Seahawks by a groin injury and missed the following week’s contest. Earlier this year, Cook missed two games and limped through a third with an ankle injury. Last week, of course, Cook suffered a serious shoulder injury in the loss to the 49ers, which is expected to cost the two-time Pro Bowler at least two games. (I’m leaving aside the allegations of assault and battery against Cook by an ex-girlfriend, because they’re not currently resolved and don’t factor in to what the Vikings would have considered when they signed Cook to a new contract.)
On the field, Cook has been every bit as good after the contract as he was before it, with fumbles as the only concern lurking in his game. He has generated 0.67 RYOE over the past two seasons, well ahead of backup Alexander Mattison, who is right at 0.0. The Vikings paid a player who was talented but injury-prone, and they’ve gotten a player who is talented and injury-prone.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
AAV: $12.5 million
Why he was different: You’ve seen Derrick Henry, right? He makes other NFL players look like small children. Henry is bigger, stronger and faster than most of the defenders who try to tackle him. Outside of a fractured fibula suffered at Alabama, Henry had missed only two games in four years as a pro, both from minor muscle injuries. After breaking out late in his third season and leading the Titans to the AFC Championship Game in his fourth year, the Titans rewarded Henry with a new deal.
What has happened since: Henry was brilliant in 2020, as he shouldered an even larger portion of the workload and joined the 2,000-yard club. In 2021, Henry’s workload was almost farcical to begin the season, as the star back carried the ball more times than any player in NFL history through eight games before going down with a fractured foot. ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported that Henry isn’t expected to play again this season.
Henry racked up 937 yards and 10 touchdowns before suffering the injury, but as I wrote back when he got hurt, I think Henry might have been feeling the effects of his 2020 workload even before the injury. Henry had dropped from averaging 5.2 yards per carry between 2019-20 to 4.3 yards per attempt in 2021. Models like RYOE saw Henry as a special back during his breakout seasons, racking up 0.9 rush yards over expectation per attempt, but in 2021, Henry generated only 11 extra yards versus what an average back would have done in the same situations all season. Henry went from being a back who greatly exceeded expectations over a large amount of touches to a back who met expectations on a ridiculous amount of touches.
At the same time, we’ve seen the Tennessee offense struggle without Henry in the fold. Rushing hasn’t necessarily been the issue, as we saw D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard both break big gains in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, but the other ways Henry impacted the team have mattered. Tennessee’s play-action game has disappeared. The Titans have been less effective in the red zone. The offense has struggled to protect the football during this two-game losing streak, which hadn’t really been a problem with Henry as the focal point. The Titans are still searching for an offensive identity without their lead back in the mix.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
AAV: $12.2 million
Why he was different: Chubb has seemed on the precipice of taking over as the best back in football for the past couple of seasons. The Georgia product averaged more than five yards per attempt in each of his first three seasons, becoming the first running back in league history to do that with 150 or more carries in each of those campaigns. Chubb had been healthy across his first two years as a pro, although he did suffer a significant knee injury in college and miss four-plus games because of a knee injury in 2020.
What has happened since: Chubb’s extension hasn’t even technically started, because the Browns added those three years onto the one year remaining on Chubb’s initial deal. The 25-year-old’s performance is right in line with what we saw in 2020, as Chubb’s rushing average of 5.8 yards per carry leads the league. On the other hand, Chubb missed two games because of a calf injury earlier this season. (He also missed a third after being placed on the COVID-19 list, but I’m not considering that as an injury in terms of evaluating these deals.)
Chubb plays behind a great line, but he has also generated 199 rushing yards over expectation across his 150 carries this season. The only backs who have been more productive on a RYOE basis are Jonathan Taylor and Chubb’s teammate, D’Ernest Johnson.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
AAV: $12 million
Why he was different: Mixon missed only four games during his first three seasons, sitting out two games as a rookie due to a concussion and two in 2018 after undergoing knee surgery. No less of an authority on football than Bill Belichick called Mixon “probably the best back in the league” during the 2019 season, when Mixon ran for 1,137 yards on a hopeless Bengals team with an awful offensive line. Mixon was going to be a building block for the Bengals and take a heavy load off of first overall pick Joe Burrow.
What has happened since: Mixon averaged 3.6 yards per carry over the first six games of 2020 before going down with a foot injury that eventually ended his season. The Bengals were one of the most pass-happy teams in the league before Burrow suffered his own season-ending knee injury shortly thereafter.
Unlike the rest of the guys we’ve talked about, who were mostly excellent in 2020 before breaking down in 2021, Mixon has been much better this season. The Oklahoma product missed most of the loss to the Packers after leaving because of an ankle injury but has otherwise been present and productive. Measures like RYOE haven’t really been blown away by Mixon as a pro — he was basically neutral in 2019 and ranks 12th among backs with 100 or more carries this year at 0.3 RYOE/attempt — but he rarely fumbles and is scoring touchdowns at a career-high rate.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
AAV: $12 million
Why he was different: I don’t think Jones was perceived as different in the way that other backs on this list were when they signed their deals. Jones had missed time with sprains of both MCLs and a hamstring injury before leaving what was expected to be his final game with the Packers due to a chest injury last January. Despite the presence of AJ Dillon on the roster, the Packers brought Jones back on a deal that is really more like a two-year, $20 million pact.
What has happened since: Jones was having his worst season as a starter before going down with yet another sprained MCL. After averaging 5.2 yards per carry over his first four seasons, Jones is down to 4.2 yards per rush this season. I’d consider a drop-off in Green Bay’s offensive line partially responsible there, but Jones had produced 0.7 RYOE per attempt between 2018-20. In 2021, the 27-year-old is actually producing below what an average back would generate behind the same line at minus-0.1 RYOE. Dillon, playing behind the same line, has 0.4 RYOE per attempt.
What it all means
So we have eight backs, each of whom were playing at a high level when they signed their extensions. Most of them have suffered meaningful, multiweek injuries. Some of them have been valuable and similarly productive to their former selves for weeks at a time or even a season. But most haven’t been as effective. The best-case scenario might be someone like Elliott, who has been healthy but has retreated toward league average, or Cook, who has been productive but has continued to struggle with injuries.
Is it unfair to single out running backs as failing to deliver on expectations? Maybe. Let’s compare them to the top eight players at similarly compensated positions.
Guards: Looking at the top eight guards in the league on multiyear deals by average annual salary is more of a mixed bag. Brandon Brooks and Andrus Peat have struggled to stay healthy and are currently injured. Future Hall of Famer Zack Martin missed six games a year ago. Andrew Norwell, now in the fourth year of the deal he signed with the Jaguars, hasn’t been as productive or healthy as he was on his rookie deal with the Panthers. If we look back that far at running back, though, we would get into deals for guys like Bell, Gurley and Johnson, which have already been ended because of injuries and poor performance. Joel Bitonio and Rodger Saffold III have continued to play at a high level, although Bitonio and teammate Wyatt Teller just signed extensions. Joe Thuney inked his deal with the Chiefs last offseason. I don’t think this tells us that guards are a “safer” position to re-sign than running backs as much as suggesting that the answer isn’t quite as clear.
Safeties: Safeties, on the other hand, have almost universally been better bets than running backs. The worst case has coincidentally been the biggest contract of the bunch, as Landon Collins tore an Achilles before being moved to a hybrid linebacker/safety role. Jamal Adams has been inconsistent for the Seahawks, and Eddie Jackson hasn’t intercepted a single pass over the past two seasons, but players like Kevin Byard, Harrison Smith, Justin Simmons, Budda Baker and Tyrann Mathieu have all continued to generally play at a high level while avoiding serious injury.
I don’t think eight-player samples are enough to draw meaningful conclusions, but this isn’t the first time running back contracts have come into question. I wrote about this very issue a little over two years ago, in advance of many of these backs getting new contracts. The cautionary tales then were Elliott, Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Jerick McKinnon and highly drafted players like Saquon Barkley and Leonard Fournette. Most of those moves did not work out, although Fournette has found a second act with the Buccaneers.
There’s also an important distinction to be made between taking a running back in the first or second round of a draft and signing a running back to a significant extension. I’m not sure the evidence supports using a top-five pick on a running back, and there’s an opportunity cost to using a pick on a back as opposed to a player at a position that’s more difficult to fill, but it’s certainly possible for a tailback taken in the top two rounds to be more valuable than his deal over multiple seasons. You could say that about every one of the backs on this list who were taken in that range. It’s far tougher to find running backs on veteran extensions who have delivered surplus value for multiple seasons.
So, should teams not pay running backs?
I don’t think it’s as simple as saying that paying any running back is a bad idea. We’ve seen some deals work out, like the four-year, $24.5 million pact Ekeler signed with the Chargers. The Seahawks were thrilled with the first contract they gave Marshawn Lynch, which was for four years and $30 million in 2012. That would be the equivalent of a four-year, $45 million deal on today’s cap. Good results do happen. Teams also want to keep their locker rooms happy, and refusing to incentivize backs who play well with extensions might hurt in the big picture, although I think this effect is probably overstated. The Steelers didn’t fall apart, as an example, when they failed to come to terms on a deal with Bell.
What we do see, though, is that teams probably want to be more patient and creative with running back deals than they are at other positions. The extensions handed out to first-round picks after three years for Gurley, Elliott and McCaffrey have been middling or worse. If those teams had gone year-to-year, I’m not sure any of those players would have received a meaningful second contract. Organizations feel more pressure to pay players taken later in the draft after year three because their contracts expire after four seasons, but we’ve seen teams wait and get an extra year of production, like the Titans did with Henry.
We’re also seeing an effect where players drafted in the first round have friendlier fifth-year options than we would see at other positions. Barkley’s fifth-year option in 2022, as an example, costs only $7.2 million. That’s actually a pay cut from the $7.8 million Barkley averaged on the first four years of his rookie deal. That extra season makes it easier for a team to go year-to-year and also creates more leverage when it comes to negotiating extensions.
Because the attrition rate at running back appears to be higher than it would be for other positions, it’s going to be more important to structure deals with easier outs earlier in contracts, even if it means more up front. Some teams have to bite the bullet because of how much they’re investing or because of a cap situation that’s already a mess, but I think it’s important to structure these deals with the expectation that you’ll probably want to get out after two seasons.
The Packers, for example, are paying Jones more than $14 million in the first year of his deal when they could have franchised him and paid just $8.6 million. In return, they were able to get a second season in 2022 at about $6 million, which will amount to basically paying Jones two consecutive franchise tags. They were able to spread the money across four years to keep Jones’ cap hit down as opposed to paying the accounting value of the tag up front. And while they have two years and $28 million remaining on the back half of the deal in 2023 and 2024, the Packers can get out of a Jones deal after 2022 with just $6.5 million in dead cap. By then, they’ll likely be moving forward with Jordan Love at quarterback and Dillon as their lead runner.
From a player’s perspective, of course, this should be even more of a reason to get paid as quickly as possible. Draftees can’t sign extensions until they finish their third season in the league, but as we saw with Elliott and Kamara in recent years, running backs should be holding out (or holding in under the new CBA) to get their contracts before they begin their fourth season. The league’s economic model is unfairly weighted against and built upon players making a fraction of their true market value on rookie contracts. It’s one thing for a quarterback to bet on himself and go year-to-year, but running backs have drastically different aging curves.
Over the next few years, we’ll get another set of data points. Running backs like Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery and Miles Sanders become eligible for extensions this offseason. The following year opens up the class of 2020, which includes Taylor, Dillon, D’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers. Some of those guys are already superstars, and others will develop further between now and then.
We’ll hear arguments for why they’re exceptions to the rules about paying running backs, just as we did about the last group of young stars. But it’s going to be tough to count on those guys to defy the odds.
|
