AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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If The Season Ended Today In The AFC, 13 teams are in the playoffs or within a game of the 8-6 playoff line:
W-L Div Conf
Kansas City West 10-4 1 5-4
New England East 9-5 1 7-2
Tennessee South 9-5 1 6-4
Cincinnati North 8-6 1 6-3
Indianapolis WC1 8-6 2 7-3
LA Chargers WC2 8-6 2 5-4
Buffalo WC3 8-6 2 5-5
Baltimore 8-6 2 5-5
Pittsburgh 7-6-1 3 5-4
Las Vegas 7-7 3 5-4
Miami 7-7 3 5-5
Cleveland 7-7 4 4-6
Denver 7-7 4 3-6
Nobody has clinched a playoff berth in the AFC. So many big games this weekend.
In the AFC:
New England at Buffalo
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Both of the above for division leads
Denver at Las Vegas
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Four national inter-conference games that will be pivotal:
San Francisco at Tennessee (Thur)
Cleveland at Green Bay (Sat)
Indianapolis at Arizona (Sat)
Miami at New Orleans (Mon)
Let’s see how they affect the NFC:
W-L Div Conf
yx-Green Bay North 11-3 1 8-2
Dallas East 10-4 1 8-1
Tampa Bay South 10-4 1 6-4
Arizona West 10-4 1 6-4
LA Rams WC1 10-4 2 7-3
San Francisco WC2 8-6 3 6-5
Minnesota WC3 7-7 2 5-4
Philadelphia 7-7 2 5-4
New Orleans 7-7 2 5-5
Washington 6-8 3 5-4
Atlanta 6-8 3 3-7
The Packers, four games up with three to play as the NFL’s only 11-win team, have clinched the North. The only clinched team in the league, but Dallas, Tampa Bay, Arizona and the Rams are all 3 games up with 3 to play on the playoff line.
A total of 11 NFC teams in the playoffs or within one game of the line. Seattle and Carolina lurking a game below.
So 24 teams within a game of the playoff lines.
With Washington’s loss, Minnesota slips into the top seven.
This week’s big NFC games are:
Washington at Dallas
Rams at Minnesota
Plus the four interconference games above.
– – –
We won’t do the whole teams, but here are the Pro Bowl QBs:
• Aaron Rodgers
• Tom Brady
• Kyler Murray
• Justin Herbert
• Patrick Mahomes
• Lamar Jackson
Don’t know who we’d exclude in the NFC, but no room for the McVay-boosted QB MATTHEW STAFFORD. In the AFC, the great JOSH ALLEN didn’t find any room on the squad.
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NFC NORTH
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DETROIT
A “mild cold” with the COVID label could keep vaccinated QB JARED GOFF out of Sunday’s game. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff said he feels “fine” after testing positive for COVID-19, but is not sure if he can return to play in Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons.
“I’m feeling good,” Goff said in his weekly interview with 97.1 WXYT-FM. “It’s pretty much a mild cold. I’m feeling fine. I had some symptoms pop up really Sunday night after the game, Monday morning. I said, ‘You know what, I might as well make sure I’m good to go,’ and sure enough I’m positive.”
The Lions placed Goff and two others on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday, bringing their COVID outbreak to 13 cases in 15 days.
The NFL changed its health and safety protocols last week to allow vaccinated players to make a quicker return to play.
Under the new guidelines, vaccinated players can clear protocols as soon as the day after they test positive for the virus so long as they are asymptomatic and their viral load is above a certain benchmark.
Previously, players were required to quarantine for a minimum of 10 days, though vaccinated players could return sooner if they produced two negative COVID tests at least 24 hours apart.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff says he’s feeling “fine” after testing positive for COVID-19.
Goff, who is vaccinated, said he is not sure what his viral load is but will follow a course of “rest, sleep, hydration (and) medicine” in hopes of returning to the field this week.
“I don’t even know exactly what it means, but I know the number is 35 that they’re looking for,” he said. “If you’re 35 or above you are good to go. I’m not quite sure what my number is yet, but that is the number they’re looking at. There’s a million ways you can try to get your number there by certain medications or certain vitamins and stuff like that, that can expedite the process to get yourself there to test negative.”
The Lions activated running back Jamaal Williams and cornerback Mark Gilbert off the reserve/COVID list Monday but still have seven players in COVID protocols: Goff, offensive tackle Matt Nelson, safety Jalen Elliott, injured receiver Quintez Cephus and practice squad defensive players Nickell Robey-Coleman, Corey Ballentine and Tavante Beckett.
Center Evan Brown, safety Tracy Walker and cornerbacks Ifeatu Melifonwu and Bobby Price came off reserve/COVID last week.
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MINNESOTA
RB DALVIN COOK, who was unvaccinated, has become a COVID casualty. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
After word broke that Vikings running back Dalvin Cook was on the COVID-19 reserve list, a number of reporters covering the team reported that he was unvaccinated and would not play against the Rams this weekend.
Vikings offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak confirmed that Cook will not be available to play this weekend when he held a press conference a short time later. Cook’s absence
“Big challenge not having Dalvin. . . . I know he’s going to be bummed out. We’ll get him back at some point,” Kubiak said, via Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press.
Alexander Mattison was activated from the COVID-19 reserve list this week and will move into the lead back role he’s filled when Cook has missed time in the past. Kubiak said the team has “all the confidence in the world” in Mattison and they’ll be looking for him to play well as they work to remain in playoff position in the NFC.
This from Mike Florio:
@ProFootballTalk
Here’s the first test of Kirk Cousins’ vow to ensconce himself in plexiglass in lieu of vaccination. If he was a close contact with Cook, Cousins will be out for Sunday, too.
Interesting that Cousins took all the heat for not submitting to vaccination, but we don’t recall hearing any complaints about Cook.
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NFC EAST
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PHILADELPHIA
This from ESPN:
@espn
@adamschefter with an update on the Eagles’ mindset at QB.
“There aren’t a lot of QBs out there as an option [next season] who are better than Jalen Hurts.”
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NFC SOUTH
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NEW ORLEANS
The hits just keep on happening as the wave of mild COVID infections runs into NFL protocols. Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com on a rookie quarterback who will make his NFL debut in a critical December game on Monday night football:
The New Orleans Saints are looking down the barrel of possibly starting their fourth different quarterback this season. According to the NFL Network, the team is placing starter Taysom Hill on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday. Hill now joins backup signal-caller Trevor Siemian, who was placed on the COVID list earlier this week. With those two now on the shelf, for the time being, New Orleans is preparing to start rookie Ian Book against the Dolphins on Monday night.
The vaccination status of both Hill and Siemian is unclear at the moment. If either one is vaccinated, there is a path towards testing out of protocols in time for this game on Monday under the NFL and NFLPA’s updated policy. If either is unvaccinated and have produced a positive test, that means they’ll be forced into a 10-day quarantine, which would result in them missing Week 16.
This comes at a critical point in New Orleans’ season as they are in the midst of a playoff push at 7-7. They’d likely need to win out to give themselves a shot to get into the postseason, so not having its preferred starter comes at a less than ideal time.
Since assuming the starting role back in Week 13, Hill and the Saints have gone 2-1 and were coming off a shutout win over the Buccaneers in Week 15. Over that stretch, Hill has completed 52.8% of his passes, averaged 197.7 yards passing and 69 yards per game on the ground. he also has four total touchdowns and four interceptions.
As for Ian Book, he was drafted by New Orleans in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft out of Notre Dame. He finished his collegiate career as the Fighting Irish’s winningest quarterback in the school’s history, but has yet to throw an NFL pass. During his final season at Notre Dame, Book completed 64.6% of his throws and averaged 8 yards per attempt. He also rushed 116 times in 2020 on a 4.2 yards per carry clip.
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NFC WEST
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
If there is not a true QB MVP in 2021, the smart kids have been singing the praises of RB JONATHAN TAYLOR. But, Ross Tucker responds:
@RossTuckerNFL
If you’re making the “Jonathan Taylor for MVP” argument than you have to make one for Cooper Kupp too, right?
Kupp is on a pace for 139 catches, 1,857 yards and 16 TDs in a 16-game season.
No one has ever had a season with 130 catches, 1,800 yards and 15 TDs.
The closest would be Jerry Rice in 1995 – 122-1,848-15 TDs.
So even without the extra game, Kupp is arguably shaping the greatest across the board receiving season in history.
With the 17th game, the numbers are 148-1,973-17 TDs.
He probably won’t approach the two best TD receiving seasons of 23 by Randy Moss in 2007 and 22 by Rice in 1987. They are the only 20+ receiving seasons.
But the record for catches, 149 by Michael Thomas in 2019 is very much in play. Marvin Harrison’s 143 in 2002 is 2nd.
The receiving yards record in 1,964 by Calvin Johnson in 2012 is very gettable. Johnson went 122-1,964 that year, but only had 5 TDs.
So with the benefit of the 17th game, Kupp could have both the receptions and receiving yards record. He can dream of a 150-2,000 season.
Taylor’s upside would be around 2,000 rush yards and 20 TDs. But he is tracking right now for “only” 1,843 in a 17-game season.
Of the 8 2,000-yard rushing seasons, Terrell Davis did have 20+ rush TDs with 21 in 1998.
Both MVP-type seasons, but Kupp’s numbers seem more unique.
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
Concussed QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER has been declared out of Sunday’s near-elimination game with the Raiders (both teams are 7-7). Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:
The Broncos officially have ruled out quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the Week 16 game against the Raiders.
Head coach Vic Fangio said “it’s possible” Bridgewater could return in Week 17. The Broncos, though, will do “whatever’s best for his health moving forward” after Bridgewater’s head injury kept him in the hospital overnight Sunday.
Bridgewater is in concussion protocol for the second time this season.
Drew Lock will start for the Broncos this week, but the job remains Bridgewater’s when he returns, Fangio said.
“Teddy’s our quarterback, and if Teddy’s healthy, he’ll be the quarterback,” Fangio said, via Aric DiLalla of the team website.
Bridgewater has started all 14 games for the Broncos this season.
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
QB TYLER HUNTLEY had a productive career at Utah, but the NFL had no use for him come draft time. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
It’s too early to say for sure what kind of career Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley will have. But Huntley has done enough this season that it’s not too early to say that NFL talent evaluators significantly underestimated him in the 2020 draft.
The 23-year-old Huntley has started two games for the Ravens this season and played most of another, when Lamar Jackson exited early in Cleveland with an ankle injury, and Huntley has played about as well as Jackson has: Huntley has a slightly higher passer rating than Jackson, 88.8 to 87.0, and Huntley and Jackson average an identical 5.8 yards per carry running the ball.
Huntley is fast, good at recognizing the pass rush and using his legs to get out of trouble, and has a good arm. A player with his talent at the NFL’s most important position is obviously worth taking a chance on in the draft, and yet Huntley went undrafted in 2020.
But Huntley didn’t only go undrafted. He wasn’t even invited to the Scouting Combine, not even as one of the extra quarterbacks who goes to the Combine to throw passes in the receiver drills. Several quarterbacks who were invited to the Combine in 2020 have already washed out of the NFL and were watching on their couches as Huntley threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more on Sunday against the Packers.
And it’s not like Huntley was some nobody in college. He was a three-year starter at Utah who was chosen first-team All-Pac-12 in 2019 — chosen over, among others, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who went sixth overall in the 2020 draft to the Chargers and is now one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
It would be tempting to credit the Ravens for being the one team that recognized Huntley’s talent, but the Ravens really didn’t recognize it either. If they had, they would have drafted him. Instead they brought him to camp only as an undrafted free agent, then they put him on waivers at the end of training camp, giving any other team a chance to claim him, and then for most of his rookie season they left him on their practice squad, where any other team could have signed him away.
If the Ravens had any idea that Huntley would play the way he’s playing this, they never would have risked losing him last year.
It might sound like 20/20 hindsight to say Huntley should have been drafted in 2020, but there were some people saying so before the 2020 draft. Paul Noonan wrote for SB Nation a week before the draft that Huntley was the best late-round prospect in the draft at any position, and that Huntley actually should be thought of as “one of the best prospects in the class and not some late-round flier.” And although the use of analytics for determining which players to draft is still in its infancy, it’s worth noting that several people who attempt to use analytics to evaluate draft prospects were very high on Huntley a year and a half ago.
A whole lot of teams wish they could have a do-over in 2020 and spend a draft pick on Huntley. It’s too late for that, but smart teams are surely examining how they whiffed on Huntley, and vowing not to repeat the mistake of letting a talented quarterback go undrafted.
The DB saw Huntley play against UCLA in a 2017 game that QB JOSH ROSEN bailed on at the last minute. Huntley passed for 327 yards and 4 TDs in an easy win and looked just fine.
Here is what Noonan wrote:
Paul Noonan – Tyler Huntley, QB, Utah
Projecting late-round quarterbacks to be anything outside of “bad backups” is usually foolhardy, but Huntley is going to make a bunch of people look foolish. My own made-up stats quickly identified Huntley as someone to keep an eye on, but if you don’t care for QBOPS, CPOE tells the same story, and CPOE has a history of identifying college quarterbacks who will succeed at the next level.
The fact is that almost no quarterbacks who are as accurate and explosive as Huntley bust in the NFL. Combine his outstanding accuracy with the fact that he was a three-year starter who improved every year, and you have a good prospect. Add a dash of “probably” outstanding athleticism (Huntley was excluded from the combine for no good reason, but did do one of those personal pro days that we should all be skeptical about), and that’s enough for me to conclude he should be one of the best prospects in the class and not some late-round flier.
If you watch the tape, you can see why scouts have their issues. He occasionally throws a wobbly ball, and his footwork in the pocket can get messy. All of that said, his issues are all completely fixable, and many are caused by what appeared to be an awful line. Outside of Burrow and Tua, there is no other quarterback I would rather have in this draft. Just watch him land in New England.
From a distance, Huntley appeared to have excellent character and decent academics. Did his coach ding him? Doesn’t sound like it:
“He’s as fierce of a competitor as I’ve ever been around, and you like to see that,” Whittingham said of his junior quarterback on Wednesday. “It’s always better to have to temper somebody than have to light a fire underneath them. That’s the case with Tyler. He’s a guy who just wants to do everything he can to help us win.”
In the QB Ratings below, Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com has this to say:
Huntley has me thinking about how long people hold on to draft evaluations. I’d already rather have him long-term than Zach Wilson because it’s clear one can play at this level and that proof counts more than any projection made in some vastly inferior leagues.
Would we take that all the way to include more than TREVOR LAWRENCE or TREY LANCE?
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CINCINNATI
Since COVID loves the nightlife where the unvaccinated hang out, it doesn’t have a chance of making an inroad in Cincinnati according to QB JOE BURROW.
@Ben_Baby
Burrow says “fortunately, there’s not a lot to do in Cincinnati,” which has helped the Bengals from going out and contracting COVID-19.
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CLEVELAND
According to his tests, QB BAKER MAYFIELD continues to be ravaged by COVID – even if he doesn’t have any symptoms. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
In two days, the Browns face the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Browns still don’t have starting quarterback Baker Mayfield in the building.
Mayfield landed on COVID reserve last Wednesday with a positive test despite being vaccinated. Although the NFL and NFL Players Association agreed on Thursday to change the protocols to make it easier to return, Mayfield still hasn’t been cleared.
On Sunday, Mayfield posted on social media that he has no symptoms and that he was praying for a negative test, so that he could play on Monday against the Raiders. Four days later, he and the Browns are still waiting.
By rule, he’ll return on Saturday at the latest. That’s the same day, however, that the Browns play the Packers at Lambeau Field. If not cleared before Saturday, he’ll have to travel separately to Green Bay and await the automatic green light for his return on the same day as game day. Obviously, it will become harder for him to perform at a high level without the benefit of practice.
Obviously, the Browns need him. At 7-7, another loss could end up being fatal to what once seemed to be a certain playoff appearance.
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AFC SOUTH
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TENNESSEE
The Titans are expected to get a boost for tonight’s game with the 49ers. Turron Davenport of ESPN.com:
Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to be activated from injured reserve for Thursday night’s game against the San Francisco 49ers, sources told ESPN.
Brown was designated for return to practice from injured reserve on Monday and took part in all practices this week. The Titans placed Brown on injured reserve after he suffered a chest injury during their 22-13 loss to the Houston Texans last month. Tennessee has a 1-2 record without Brown in the lineup.
Getting Brown back onto the field is huge for quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
“I think first and foremost is his ability to make plays,” Tannehill said. “You look at what he has done for us over the last few years and the confidence that we have together. Just the plays he has made, some of them have been spectacular. To have that ability on the field and that confidence from the offense would be huge.”
Brown has played 10 games for the Titans and leads the team in receptions (46) and yards (615). Brown’s three touchdown receptions ties him with MyCole Pruitt and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for the team lead.
The Titans will be without Kendall Lamm, who was slated to start at left tackle with Taylor Lewan out. Lamm tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday.
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THIS AND THAT
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AIKMAN RATINGS THRU WEEK 15
The top two teams are in the AFC East per the Aikman Combined Ratings after Week 15. The Bills visit the Patriots this Sunday.
With major movement hard to come by this late in the season, the Buccaneers did not fall very far despite their shutout loss to the Saints.
Another win for Green Bay, but the Packers remain in the middle of the pack of the Aikman Combined.
—— Aikman —— —— NFL ——
Rank W-L Team Comb Off Def Off Def Combined
1 8-6 Bills 170.5 90.8 79.7 7 1 8
2 9-5 Patriots 166.6 85.8 80.8 16 3 19
3 10-4 Buccaneers 163.0 92.3 70.7 2 12 14
4 10-4 Cardinals 161.5 89.8 71.7 8 7 15
5 8-6 49ers 160.6 90.1 70.5 12 6 18
6 10-4 Rams 160.1 89.4 70.7 6 14 20
7 10-4 Cowboys 160.1 86.7 73.4 1 21 22
8 10-4 Chiefs 157.0 89.2 67.8 3 24 27
9 7-7 Saints 156.8 82.4 74.4 26 13 39
10 8-6 Colts 156.9 88.2 68.7 13 15 28
11 8-6 Ravens 156.8 86.9 69.9 5 19 24
12 7-7 Broncos 156.3 81.2 75.1 18 4 22
13 7-7 Eagles 154.9 90.3 64.6 11 11 22
14 11-3 Packers 154.0 87.8 66.2 14 8 22
15 7-7 Vikings 153.5 89.2 64.3 8 30 38
16 8-6 Bengals 153.4 84.0 69.4 15 16 31
17 9-5 Titans 151.9 82.4 69.5 17 10 27
18 5-9 Seahawks 150.6 82.4 68.2 30 31 61
19 8-6 Chargers 149.6 89.9 59.7 4 22 26
20 7-7 Browns 148.9 83.1 65.8 19 5 24
21 7-7 Dolphins 146.5 76.9 69.6 23 18 41
22 7-6-1 Steelers 145.7 80.3 65.4 21 27 48
23 5-9 Panthers 144.9 76.3 68.6 28 2 30
24 6-8 Washington 141.4 78.4 63.0 20 23 43
25 4-10 Giants 140.1 73.7 66.4 27 25 52
26 7-7 Raiders 137.9 79.6 58.3 10 17 27
27 4-10 Bears 137.1 72.7 64.4 29 9 38
28 2-10-1 Lions 134.1 75.2 58.9 25 29 54
29 6-8 Falcons 133.0 75.0 58.0 24 26 50
30 2-12 Jaguars 132.1 71.6 60.5 31 20 51
31 3-11 Jets 131.1 75.2 55.9 22 32 54
32 3-11 Texans 130.8 68.8 62.0 32 28 60
NFL Average: 149.9 82.7 67.3
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PRO BOWL SNUBS
Thoughts on Pro Bowl snubs from ESPN.com:
Fantasy football analyst Mike Clay picking snubs and the rest of our panel answering questions. Check out their responses below:
Creed Humphrey, C, Kansas City Chiefs
Humphrey was an absolute gem find by Kansas City in the second round of April’s draft. The rookie has a 97.5% pass block win rate, which is tops among all offensive linemen, and of extreme value as the center of one of the league’s pass-heaviest offenses. Our friends at Pro Football Focus grade the Oklahoma product as easily the league’s best pivot this season, as he sits first at the position in run blocking and third in pass blocking. I get it — he’s a rookie — but several other first-year players made the Pro Bowl and you can make the case that Humphrey is the best of the bunch.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
File this one under, “C’mon, man!” After eight seasons of criminal underutilization, the Falcons finally unlocked Patterson this season and he has been nothing short of an elite playmaker. Sure, his snaps are limited and he’s not a featured rusher, but Patterson is fifth among backs with 10 touchdowns and is also top five in targets, catches and receiving yards. Oh, and he’s an elite kick returner and has aligned in the backfield, slot, out wide, at quarterback in the wildcat and even on the other side of the ball at safety. The Pro Bowl is supposed to be fun and it won’t be as entertaining without Patterson.
A.J. Terrell, CB, Atlanta Falcons
Terrell is enjoying a breakout second NFL season after being selected in the first round of the 2020 draft. The Clemson product has been targeted on 64 of his 392 coverage snaps and has allowed a 53% catch rate and 6.8 yards per target. He’s the top-graded corner both overall and in coverage by PFF. If there’s a knock on Terrell, it’s that he’s a stay-at-home corner (he doesn’t travel with the opposing team’s top receiver), but he’s been asked to lock down the left side of the defense and he’s obviously done that at an elite level. The future is bright for the 23-year-old.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Ekeler is one of the league’s best dual-threat running backs and absolutely should be on the AFC roster. Despite lacking a bit in size (5-foot-10, 200 pounds), he has been a featured player at a tough position, sitting no lower than fifth among backs in snaps, routes, targets, receptions, receiving yards, scrimmage yards and touchdowns. He’s Justin Herbert’s top resource in an offense that leads the AFC with 50 touchdowns.
Justin Simmons, S, Denver Broncos
Several deserving safeties made the AFC roster, but it feels like a mistake to not have Simmons on the list. One of the league’s most reliable and impactful players over the past several seasons, Simmons has played 100% of Denver’s defensive snaps in all but one game this season and has delivered in all areas, with 68 tackles (four for a loss), two sacks (only three safeties have more), a position-high five interceptions and 12 passes defensed (only Pro Bowler Kevin Byard has more). Simmons is way too good to not be participating in his second consecutive Pro Bowl.
What’s the one thing that stands out most from the Pro Bowl roster release?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Broncos safety Justin Simmons being left off the AFC Pro Bowl roster. You have to find a spot for Simmons here. With five interceptions and 12 pass breakups, he has the production to make it, and the tape tells us that he is one of the most complete safeties in the game.
Tristan H. Cockcroft, fantasy football writer: Nick Chubb over Austin Ekeler stands out, and it’s hardly a matter of every team needing a representative, since that’s not a thing in the NFL. Ekeler has nine more touchdowns, 216 more total yards and — I’d argue every bit as importantly — has played three more games than Chubb this season. That’s a head-scratcher to say the least.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: No Broncos being selected is glaring. Denver’s roster is stocked with talent, most notably in the secondary, where Simmons is elite and rookie Patrick Surtain II has displayed shutdown capability. Other teams without a Pro Bowler are the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions and Texans — and the Broncos don’t belong in that class.
Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Showing some love to the young big guys up front, only one rookie offensive lineman (Chargers tackle Rashawn Slater) making it is glaring. Lions tackle Penei Sewell and Chiefs center Creed Humphrey seemed to be deserving of spots considering how well both have played. Both have been an integral part to their offenses.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: This isn’t the hottest of takes, but I’m just in awe of how good 49ers left tackle Trent Williams is. It was fair to wonder if his career was over after he decided to sit out the 2019 season with Washington, but he has been arguably the best left tackle in the game for the past two seasons. Even at 33, and with an injury history, there was 100% certainty that he was going to be the NFC’s starter on the initial Pro Bowl roster.
Mike Tannenbaum, NFL front office insider: The Ravens have a dominant defense almost every season, and for the first time since 2005, one of their defenders wasn’t named to the Pro Bowl team. Injuries have decimated the unit this season, with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters among the players on injured reserve.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: A quarterback is always going to be left off and it will feel like a massive oversight. Buffalo’s Josh Allen is one of the best players in the league and deserves to be on this roster, but the AFC has prodigious young quarterbacks. It might be time to make it four quarterbacks per conference.
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QB RATINGS
Let’s see who Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com has in his weekly QB ratings (parenthesis is change from last week):
1 (+1) Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers · Year 17
2021 stats: 13 games | 67.8 pct | 3,487 pass yds | 7.9 ypa | 30 pass TD | 4 INT
The Packers were held scoreless in the first quarter for the ninth time this season, tied for the highest rate in the NFL. To put it another way: Aaron Rodgers destroys worlds in Quarters 2-4 every week. Despite a few missed opportunities, Rodgers averaged 8.6 yards per attempt against the Ravens’ surprisingly heavy pressure. He’s playing his best while the MVP competition stumbles — and offensive line reinforcements could be coming soon.
2 (-1) Tom Brady
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Year 22
2021 stats: 14 games | 67.1 pct | 4,348 pass yds | 7.2 ypa | 36 pass TD | 11 INT
Dennis Allen is really out here preventing Tom Brady from winning an MVP and getting home-field advantage. Brady has a total of 29 turnover-worthy plays since joining the Bucs, per Pro Football Focus, the lowest rate of any quarterback in football over the past two seasons. Nearly half of those plays (13) have come in five games against the Saints! I doubt another secondary in football can match the cohesion and aggression the Saints bring each time they play Brady. The Bucs averaged 3.5 yards per passing play in 51 dropbacks — that kind of defensive beatdown leaves a mark.
3 Kyler Murray
Arizona Cardinals · Year 3
2021 stats: 11 games | 69.8 pct | 3,039 pass yds | 8.4 ypa | 20 pass TD | 10 INT | 270 rush
Murray missed more throws than usual in the stunning loss at Detroit. And at various points, he just wasn’t on the same page with his receivers. This is a recurring trend with A.J. Green, which is a concern with DeAndre Hopkins not returning anytime soon. The Cardinals’ role players behind Hopkins have to step up a notch. The biggest problem, however, was the scrambled protection without center Rodney Hudson (COVID-19 list), as Arizona routinely failed to recognize where Detroit’s rushers were coming from. It wasn’t the throw-to-throw disaster that a 30-12 loss to the Lions suggests, but Kyler wasn’t comfortable and didn’t appear to see the field well.
4 Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers · Year 2
2021 stats: 14 games | 66.4 pct | 4,058 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 32 pass TD | 12 INT | 284 rush
A national audience saw the typical Herbert game from the last two years: maximum electricity mixed with an unusual share of bad luck. His interception came on a tipped pass. A few dropped potential touchdowns and contested-catch fails hurt. Still, it was the little things in this game from Herbert I loved. He’s close to passing Kyler Murray in these rankings.
5 Matthew Stafford
Los Angeles Rams · Year 13
2021 stats: 14 games | 67.6 pct | 4,142 pass yds | 8.3 ypa | 35 pass TD | 10 INT
Stafford made a raft of mental mistakes during a sluggish first half against the Seahawks, including his interception, a sack that took him out of field goal range, a delay of game and a few apparent miscommunications with Odell Beckham Jr. Then Stafford uncorks a few deep shots to Cooper Kupp, and all is forgiven.
6 (+1) Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals · Year 2
2021 stats: 14 games | 68.7 pct | 3,640 pass yds | 8.4 ypa | 26 pass TD | 14 INT
I’ve written a lot this season about how Burrow looks like he has all the answers to the test. On Sunday in Denver, Vic Fangio schooled him for most of the game. Burrow often held the ball too long because of the Broncos’ coverage until a stretch where he kept picking up first downs with his legs. When he absolutely needed a throw late in the game, he hit Tyler Boyd on a tough third-and-10 while getting hit. Those are plays which have the city of Cincinnati falling so hard, rightfully certain they found The One.
7 (-1) Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills · Year 4
2021 stats: 14 games | 65.2 pct | 3,734 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 31 pass TD | 12 INT
Allen had his usual collection of sharp plays, including two of his touchdown throws and a 26-yard scramble. He also threw an interception and took four sacks on a day where his offensive line struggled. While it was a relief to see Allen still knows how to hand the ball off, it’s a concern that the Bills failed to top 200 net yards passing on 38 dropbacks against the Panthers. That fun second half in Tampa apparently didn’t represent a sea change.
8 (+2) Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs · Year 5
2021 stats: 14 games | 65.6 pct | 4,052 pass yds | 7.4 ypa | 30 pass TD | 13 INT | 302 rush yds
Mahomes appears most comfortable in chaos, at his best when he’s making the difficult throw. On the Chiefs’ two-point conversion to make it 21-21 Thursday night, he passed on two open receivers in his progression just to roll right and throw left against his body for the conversion. The Chiefs’ breathtaking finish to their win over the Chargers included more than 100 yards after the catch from Travis Kelce, coming after a familiar stretch of stagnation following an opening-drive touchdown. Mahomes is feeling himself again and that’s scary for the rest of the AFC.
9 (-1) Derek Carr
Las Vegas Raiders · Year 8
2021 stats: 14 games | 68.2 pct | 4,162 pass yds | 7.8 ypa | 19 pass TD | 11 INT
Carr’s receivers kept dropping passes and making mental errors in Cleveland, a theme over the last month. Carr also helped kick-start the Browns’ comeback with a fumble and made a few head-scratching game-management decisions. Carr was given another chance, however, and showed veteran ingenuity overcoming a huge penalty on the game-winning field goal drive.
10 (-1) Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys · Year 6
2021 stats: 13 games | 68.5 pct | 3,598 pass yds | 7.3 ypa | 25 pass TD | 10 INT
It’s bumming me out to watch Dak these days. There are the plays where his footwork, touch and ability to manipulate defenses are beautiful. Then there are all the other plays. Prescott went back to pass 40 times against the Giants, resulting in 203 yards. The Cowboys didn’t have a play over 20 yards — and barely tried to pop one. It’s a conservative offense full of protracted field goal drives and runs on third-and-long. I don’t get it.
11 Kirk Cousins
Minnesota Vikings · Year 10
2021 stats: 14 games | 66.1 pct | 3,656 pass yds | 7.3 ypa | 29 pass TD | 6 INT
Like a lot of quarterbacks this season, Cousins’ peak stretch is getting further away in the rearview mirror. His interior offensive line was manhandled in Chicago, but Minnesota still has to do better than averaging 2.2 yards per play passing. The Vikings had one pass over 10 yards and a stretch with seven drives out of eight in which they didn’t have a first down. On the final play of the first half, Cousins threw the ball out of bounds to preserve that TD-to-INT ratio.
12 (+1) Mac Jones
New England Patriots · Rookie
2021 stats: 14 games | 69.0 pct | 3,168 pass yds | 7.4 ypa | 18 pass TD | 10 INT
Trailing 20-0 in a big game was a good experience for Jones and he responded well during a furious fourth-quarter comeback.
13 (+1) Russell Wilson
Seattle Seahawks · Year 10
2021 stats: 11 games | 65.4 pct | 2,458 pass yds | 7.7 ypa | 16 pass TD | 5 INT
Wilson was 1-of-9 on throws over 10 yards on Tuesday against the Rams, a reminder of how badly the Seahawks need Tyler Lockett. The throw that Wilson will remember, the one he said he’d like to have back, was an underthrown deep shot to D.K. Metcalf after Jalen Ramsey was beat badly down the sideline. It’s been a year of missed connections between those two, and it’s fair to wonder if they’ll have another year together.
14 (+2) Ryan Tannehill
Tennessee Titans · Year 10
2021 stats: 14 games | 66.2 pct | 3,118 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 14 pass TD | 14 INT | 243 rush yds
Sometimes I wonder if I’m crazy to think every week Tannehill is playing so much better than his numbers suggest. Then I look at his Pro Football Focus grade (seventh), as well as numbers that show the Titans are a bottom-three pass-blocking team and Tannehill has lost more production to drops than any starter in the NFL. He’s in one of the worst quarterbacking situations in football.
15 (+4) Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco 49ers · Year 8
2021 stats: 13 games | 67.4 pct | 3,172 pass yds | 8.5 ypa | 18 pass TD | 8 INT
The Jimmy G discourse is almost as tiresome as the two-point-conversion and fourth-down discourses. After a sharp Garoppolo game, like Sunday against Atlanta, the numbers come out. The numbers are great, especially since midseason. The numbers matter, too, but I see the same ol’ Jimmy G.
16 (-1)Carson Wentz
Indianapolis Colts · Year 6
2021 stats: 14 games | 62.7 pct | 3,005 pass yds | 7.0 ypa | 23 pass TD | 6 INT
It’s been two steps forward, one back for Wentz all season. Just when he was on a streak of consistent performances, he only completed five passes against the Patriots. Despite mostly handing off, he had three turnover-worthy plays and was fortunate he didn’t get picked off more than once. Frank Reich didn’t appear to trust Wentz late in the game. Who can blame him?
17 (+4) Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles · Year 2
2021 stats: 13 games | 61.3 pct | 2,731 pass yds | 7.2 ypa | 14 pass TD | 9 INT | 733 rush yds
That was everything I want out from a Hurts start. His running — and the threat of him running — helped put the Eagles’ ground game over 200 yards again. He hit chunk plays to Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor with touch and arm strength. He only had six incompletions and moved well in the pocket. The time off appeared to do Hurts right.
18 (-1) Matt Ryan
Atlanta Falcons · Year 14
2021 stats: 14 games | 67.5 pct | 3,340 pass yds | 7.0 ypa | 18 pass TD | 11 INT
I’m running out of things to say about Ryan’s dependable weekly play, so I’ll solve the Falcons’ biggest offseason question. They should absolutely bring Ryan back and draft a quarterback to develop. The odds of finding a veteran who is a significant upgrade is way easier said than done.
19 (-1) Teddy Bridgewater
Denver Broncos · Year 8
2021 stats: 14 games | 66.9 pct | 3,052 pass yds | 7.2 ypa | 18 pass TD | 7 INT
Teddy struggled through one of his worst starts of the year before his scary concussion. Now Drew Lock will start Sunday against the Raiders in an early win-or-go-home game between AFC In The Hunters.
20 Tua Tagovailoa
Miami Dolphins · Year 2
2021 stats: 10 games | 69.9 pct | 2,141 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 14 pass TD | 8 INT
That was a very un-Tua game, ultimately one of his worst. He had more wow plays during the Dolphins’ comeback than in any other game this season, but he also had at least four big mistakes, including a pick-six
21 Tyler Huntley
Baltimore Ravens · Year 2
2021 stats: 5 games | 68.8 pct | 743 pass yds | 5.9 ypa | 3 pass TD | 1 INT
Huntley has already done enough to have an NFL job secured for a long time. He may get a chance to start a lot of games like a previous Ravens backup, Tyrod Taylor. Huntley has me thinking about how long people hold on to draft evaluations. I’d already rather have him long-term than Zach Wilson because it’s clear one can play at this level and that proof counts more than any projection made in some vastly inferior leagues.
22 (+3) Jared Goff
Detroit Lions · Year 6
2021 stats: 13 games | 67.0 pct | 3,007 pass yds | 6.5 ypa | 17 pass TD | 8 INT Isaiah Simmons dropped a potential interception deep in Lions territory early Sunday, the type of game-changing stroke of luck Goff hasn’t been afforded much of this season. Goff balled out after that. His running game converted some huge third downs, but there’s no denying he’s terrific in two-minute situations and can spin it when protected. His tackles, especially rookie Penei Sewell, are playing great.
23 Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh Steelers · Year 18
2021 stats: 13 games | 65.2 pct | 3,214 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 19 pass TD | 7 INT
Roethlisberger gets rid of the ball so fast out of habit by now that he sometimes kills plays before they start. Even when his protection holds up, he has a tendency to take the checkdown before waiting to find out if the play develops.
24 (+2) Justin Fields
Chicago Bears · Rookie
2021 stats: 12 games | 58.9 pct | 1,870 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 7 pass TD | 10 INT | 420 rush yds
he rookie shows enough each week to get excited about, pushing the ball down the field and making tough completions. It’s enough to give Bears fans pleasant dreams about what a different coach can do with him.
25 (+3) Cam Newton
Carolina Panthers · Year 11
2021 stats: 5 games | 54.9 pct | 623 pass yds | 5.5 ypa | 4 pass TD | 4 INT | 183 rush yds
Cam has scored a rushing touchdown in five straight games and led the Panthers in with 71 ground yards on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Panthers rushed for more yards (151) on 29 carries than they threw for (124) on 42 dropbacks. Carolina’s offensive line has had no clue what to do with blitzing pass rushers all season, no matter who is at quarterback.
26 (+1) Taysom Hill
New Orleans Saints · Year 5
2021 stats: 10 games | 55.7 pct | 649 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 2 pass TD | 5 INT | 311 rush yds
The Saints won despite their offense on Sunday night. Hill made a few nice throws in the first half, but New Orleans somehow survived six three-and-outs and three more drives that only gained one first down.
27 Nick Mullens
Cleveland Browns · Year 5
Mullens played such a controlled, clean game on Monday evening that I was hoping the Browns would let him throw the ball one more time on third-and-3 late in the fourth quarter to clinch the game. Nick Chubb understandably got the ball, was stuffed and Derek Carr drove for the victory. If nothing else, Mullens showed he could be trusted to find the right receiver on a 5-yard gain. His QBR was higher than all but one Baker Mayfield start this year.
28 (+1) Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars · Rookie
2021 stats: 14 games | 58.1 pct | 2,945 pass yds | 5.8 ypa | 9 pass TD | 14 INT | 264 rush yds
It’s a concern there’s so little, if anything, separating him and Davis Mills this season.
29 (+1) Davis Mills
Houston Texans · Rookie
2021 stats: 10 games | 65.6 pct | 1,946 pass yds | 6.4 ypa | 10 pass TD | 9
The Texans’ confidence in Mills is as noteworthy as his performance. They’ve adopted a pass-heavy approach early in the last two games on the way to fast starts. More surprisingly, they stayed aggressive with a lead late in Jacksonville.
30 Garrett Gilbert
Washington Football Team · Year 8
It was the week of the perfectly acceptable emergency-quarterback performance.
31 Mike Glennon
New York Giants · Year 9
Glennon was picked off three times and failed to top 100 yards passing against the Cowboys before being benched for Jake Fromm. Starting 30 games over eight seasons is not such a bad outcome for a third-round pick, but this sure looks like the end.
32 Zach Wilson
New York Jets · Rookie
2021 stats: 10 games | 56.2 pct | 1,911 pass yds | 6.2 ypa | 6 pass TD | 11 INT
The Jets started fast against the Dolphins like they did against the Eagles, with highly schemed wide-open receivers for Wilson. He still often hitched once before being sure of the throw. Like the Eagles game, everything crashed after the first few drives.
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QB DOMINOES
Bill Barnwell knocks them over down three different lines.
As we head toward the conclusion of the 2021 regular season, there are plenty of fans who have already started to think about the offseason. By my count, there are only 15 teams that can identify their 2022 Week 1 starter at quarterback with total confidence. More than half the league will either be shopping for a quarterback or shopping their quarterback in the spring.
Of course, those moves can drastically shift the way the league looks. What would this season be like if the Panthers had successfully traded for Matthew Stafford and the 49ers had drafted Mac Jones with the No. 3 overall pick in April? Would Jared Goff still be on the Rams? Would Justin Fields be on the Vikings? There’s a slightly different NFL universe, and we get a totally different campaign.
Every year, I try to imagine a series of worlds in which one key decision or trade begins an offseason of quarterback movement around the NFL. Today, I’ve put together three such scenarios and tried to make logical decisions for how different teams might approach their quarterback conundrums. The three universes are all separate from one another, so you might see your team make a move for one quarterback in the first scenario and a different signal-caller in the second or third.
One thing to keep in mind before I start: Given the sexual assault allegations that Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is facing and his uncertain future with the organization, I didn’t include any Texans trades as part of this exercise. I do think they will consider drafting a quarterback in the first round — they’re projected to pick No. 3 overall — so one trade is included in which a team moves ahead of Houston for a passer.
The two big-name quarterbacks who might be on the move are the same guys who were the subject of rumors last offseason. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson could presumably leave their longtime teams before the 2022 season. Here, we consider three scenarios in which one or neither of the two future Hall of Famers makes his move.
Scenario 1: Aaron Rodgers gets traded
Let’s start with one of the most prominent rumors from last offseason. When Rodgers was reportedly looking for a trade out of Green Bay, the Broncos seemed to be the most logical suitor for the reigning league MVP. They had a top-10 pick, young players with trade value and a hole at quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater has done a solid job for the 7-7 Broncos, but he is a pending free agent, and Rodgers would be a major upgrade on either Bridgewater or Drew Lock.
With the Packers preparing to move forward with 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love, they can send Rodgers to the Mile High City:
The Packers trade Rodgers to the Broncos for …
…well, obviously, it won’t be cheap. The Broncos will send their first- and second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 to the Packers while also adding tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, who will add depth as the Packers wait for Robert Tonyan to return from a torn ACL.
Rodgers, 38, is due just under $27 million for the 2022 season, after which the final year of his deal will void. The Broncos aren’t making this deal for one year of him, so they’ll sign him to a new contract in the process. His three-year extension will be worth $126 million, although the contract will have two voidable years to keep down his cap hits. The Broncos will essentially be committing to Rodgers through 2024.
Green Bay moves forward with Love and a bevy of draft picks. The team will eat nearly $27 million in dead money, although the trade will free up more than $19 million in cap space. What happens next?
The 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo to the Panthers for a conditional third-round pick.
San Francisco doesn’t have a ton of leverage with its current quarterback. Garoppolo’s no-trade clause expires after the season, but he’s due $25 million in unguaranteed money in 2022, has struggled to stay healthy and is expected to give way to No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance before the season begins. Garoppolo has actually been solid as a passer and ranks fourth in the NFL in QBR since Week 10, but it would be a surprise if the 49ers were able to get a first-round pick outright for him in a trade.
The Panthers, on the other hand, are desperate. The Sam Darnold move hasn’t worked out, and it cost Matt Rhule’s team its second- and fourth-round picks in the 2022 draft. If the Panthers strike out in their moves to acquire a superstar under center, Garoppolo is a logical Plan B. We know that he has more upside than it might seem — the 49ers did make it to a Super Bowl with him, after all — and he wouldn’t preclude them from going after a quarterback in the 2023 draft. This would be a third-round pick in 2023 that could rise as high as the first round if Garoppolo plays 16 games and Carolina makes the playoffs.
The Panthers eat $12 million and send Sam Darnold to the Saints for a seventh-round pick.
Trading for Garoppolo would mostly eliminate the need for Darnold; while the Panthers would want a viable backup given Garoppolo’s injury history, they could afford to get that backup for far less than $18.9 million Darnold is guaranteed in 2022. A move away from Carolina would make sense for all parties involved, even if the Panthers would have to eat a significant chunk of Darnold’s contract to get a deal done.
Jameis Winston is a free agent after an impressive half-season with New Orleans, but the Saints might not want to go back to him coming off a torn ACL. Darnold hasn’t succeeded with the Jets or Panthers, but the Saints would give him his best chance of success, given their coaching staff and offensive line. For an organization so heavily invested elsewhere on the roster, taking a flier on Darnold might be one way to try to unlock upside under center. And hey, if it doesn’t work out, there’s always Taysom Hill.
Ryan Fitzpatrick signs a one-year, $6 million deal with the Steelers.
The last time we saw Fitzpatrick was in Week 1, when the 39-year-old Washington quarterback suffered a season-ending hip injury. There’s a chance that he isn’t able to return to his NFL career, but he was an above-average player when healthy in 2018, 2019 and 2020, posting a 67.3 QBR over that time frame. Fitzpatrick comes with risk, but if a team were to acquire a quarterback who has posted Russell Wilson-type numbers without any risk, it wouldn’t be paying $6 million.
The Steelers would be signing Fitzpatrick to be their Week 1 starter in 2022. I suspect they will look toward a quarterback with their first-round pick, which ESPN’s Football Power Index projects to be a No. 15. Even if they do draft one, Fitzpatrick would give them a veteran with meaningful upside. He would be playing for his 10th team in the hopes of winning a Super Bowl before retiring.
The Lions cut Jared Goff, who inks a one-year, $5 million deal with the Bengals.
Detroit is on the hook for a $15.5 million roster bonus in 2022, but cutting Goff would save the team $10.7 million in cash. There’s no significant cap savings by releasing him, but the Lions can use that cash elsewhere. While Goff played well in Sunday’s upset win over the Cardinals, coach Dan Campbell hasn’t seemed particularly attached to the veteran this season.
Goff probably wouldn’t be expecting to walk into a starting job somewhere, but a reunion with former Rams assistant Zac Taylor as the backup to Joe Burrow would make sense. The Lions could look toward a one-year deal with Teddy Bridgewater, who crossed paths with Campbell in New Orleans, or draft a quarterback to play ahead of current backups Tim Boyle and David Blough. They’re projected to pick in the top three in April’s draft.
Scenario 2: Russell Wilson gets traded
Last offseason, Wilson was reportedly willing to waive his no-trade clause to join one of four different teams. That list might look different if he wants a trade this upcoming offseason. The Cowboys locked up Dak Prescott, the Bears traded up for Justin Fields and the Raiders parted ways with Jon Gruden. The Bears could always trade Fields as part of a Wilson deal — and the Seahawks star might just like the idea of playing in Las Vegas — but there’s one team left from that group that still makes more sense in 2022:
The Seahawks deal Wilson to the Saints.
The Saints are, as you probably already know, in rough salary-cap shape. Things aren’t quite as bad as they were a year ago — and they will perform some cap gymnastics to create the room they need this upcoming offseason — but the only quarterback of note on their books for 2022 is Taysom Hill, who might not be a quarterback at all. Jameis Winston, a free agent in March, played well enough to justify a return trip, but the Saints might look at their core and think they can win a championship if they add a superstar.
So, if Wilson is tired of playing under Pete Carroll in Seattle and goes into another offseason seeking a trade, there’s a deal to be done. New Orleans will send first- and third-round picks in 2022 and 2023 and slot cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the Seahawks for Wilson. The Seahawks would also get a conditional second-round pick in 2024 if Wilson leads the Saints to a Super Bowl before then.
Wilson would also sign a four-year, $160 million extension, adding to the two years and $51 million remaining on his current deal, which would free up cap room in 2022 and 2023. He gets $96 million fully guaranteed at signing, including a $55 million signing bonus. The moves keep Wilson’s cap hits relatively low over the next two seasons and allow the Saints to build a Super Bowl contender around their new quarterback. Here’s what that new contract would look like:
Proposed New Contract For Russell Wilson
YEAR BASE SALARY SIGNING BONUS ROSTER BONUS CAP HIT
2022 $3 million $11 million $5 million $19 million
2023 $7 million $11 million $5 million $23 million
2024 $23 million $11 million $0 $34 million
2025 $29 million $11 million $0 $40 million
2026 $35 million $11 million $1 million $47 million
2027 $42 million $0 $6 million $48 million
The Raiders trade Derek Carr to the Seahawks for a 2023 second-round pick.
Trading Wilson might set the Seahawks off on a retooling of the roster, but I don’t think the 70-year-old Carroll is about to tank or outright rebuild. Getting a viable veteran quarterback allows them to stay competitive while they use their bounty of picks to supplement the roster. With more than $60 million in cap space after the Wilson trade, the Seahawks can also afford to take on some short-term salary at quarterback if the right player pops up.
Carr has been a consistently above-average quarterback over the past few seasons, even as the Raiders have turned over their offensive line and cycled through options at receiver. He isn’t the problem for Las Vegas, but after years of disappointing seasons from the defense, it might be time for the organization to pursue a different sort of roster. With Carr entering the final year of his deal in 2022, the Raiders might prefer to get a solid draft pick for him and go in a different direction.
The Raiders sign Jameis Winston to play for a familiar coach.
With just about every quarterback in the league struggling at times this season, the half-season Winston compiled before tearing his ACL looks more and more impressive. He was able to work under the tutelage of Sean Payton, but Winston was also throwing to one of the league’s worst receiving corps given that Michael Thomas was out. I’m not sure I’d be willing to commit a huge deal to him, but even on a one-year deal, Winston has earned a raise on the $5.5 million he earned from the Saints a year ago.
Winston worked under Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich when the two were in Tampa Bay, and with Leftwich linked to multiple head-coaching jobs this offseason, a reunion between the two could make sense. Former Raiders owner Al Davis spent his entire life in love with the vertical passing game, and I suspect he instilled some of that affection in his son, Mark. A one-year, $16-million deal would give them the upside of signing a top-10 quarterback, while a no-franchise clause would ensure Winston gets paid after 2022 if he keeps up his form after the knee injury.
The Vikings trade Kirk Cousins to the Eagles for a first-round pick.
With Rodgers staying put in Green Bay in this scenario, a Vikings team already halfway between contending and rebuilding finally takes an affirmative step in the latter direction. If that happens, I suspect the Vikings would be coming off a disastrous end to the season, one in which they miss the postseason and feel like they’re not close to competing for a Super Bowl. That realization would probably come with a change at coach and/or general manager, but the biggest decision they would have to make is what to do with their veteran quarterback.
By trading Cousins, the Vikings would free up $35 million in much-needed cap space. The Eagles have been spry with Jalen Hurts this season, and without any logical quarterback to go after with all three of their first-round picks in a draft that isn’t expected to have superstar QBs — they could opt to try to surround a very good passer with a talented roster. That formula might not seem terribly enticing, but remember that Philly is only a few years removed from winning a Super Bowl with Nick Foles at quarterback.
Cousins would sign a three-year, $105 million extension, and the Eagles would get their man. Philly would send the worst of its three first-round picks in 2022 to the Vikings, who send back Cousins and their third-round pick in the upcoming draft. Minnesota would be left with 2021 third-round pick Kellen Mond as its only option at quarterback, which could lead to a reunion.
Teddy Bridgewater signs a one-year, $8 million deal with the Vikings.
Welcome back! Bridgewater was the starter in Minnesota before a serious knee injury cost the popular quarterback nearly two full seasons of football. The Vikings traded for Sam Bradford and then installed Case Keenum as the starter before Bridgewater left as a free agent. Now, with Minnesota in need of a veteran, a return to town for the 29-year-old would make sense.
Mond would still get a shot at winning the starting job, but Bridgewater would be a competent option to begin the season for new coach Kellen Moore.
Scenario 3: Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson stay put
The most likely offseason scenario is that the status quo sustains and Rodgers and Wilson stay in their current locales. It’s just so difficult for general managers to bring themselves to trade away star quarterbacks, even if they are conspicuously cranky a few times each year.
In this scenario, we assume Wilson and Pete Carroll go on a retreat and return as a unified front, while Rodgers wins his second straight MVP award and signs an extension to finish his career in Green Bay. If that happens, the Packers’ current quarterback of the future would become part of their past:
The Panthers trade their 2023 second- and fourth-round picks to the Packers for Jordan Love.
While Carolina has attempted to trade for star quarterbacks over the past two offseasons, this scenario would leave the market with none available. The Panthers might not want to use another midround pick on a quarterback who isn’t a sure thing, but facing the horror of going into 2022 with Sam Darnold as their top option, Love would be a low-cost, high-upside alternative. They reportedly took a close look at Love before the 2020 draft.
Carolina has already lost its 2022 second-rounder because of the Darnold trade, so the Packers would have to wait until 2023 for what could be a very juicy selection. Green Bay might try to hold out for a first-round pick, but it’s not getting Carolina’s selection given where it’s likely to come in, and Love is already two years into his rookie deal.
The Falcons trade Matt Ryan to the Broncos for a 2023 first-round pick (after June 1).
Atlanta isn’t close to competing for a Super Bowl, and Ryan’s cap hits over the next two seasons are an unreal $48.7 million and $43.6 million. I suppose it could re-sign Ryan, 36, to a new deal and keep the longtime starter around into his 40s, but he might have only a couple of seasons left as an average-or-better starter. His time is now. As painful as it might be for the Falcons to leap into their rebuild, they’re not winning anything in the NFC South until Tom Brady retires. Better to get an extra first-round pick in 2023 when the quarterback class could be better.
Landing on Ryan would be a fallback plan for the Broncos, who might think they’re Super Bowl contenders with a good quarterback. For cap reasons, the Falcons probably have to wait to make this trade until after June 1, when they can spread the $40.5 million in dead money they’ll create with a Ryan deal over the 2022 and 2023 caps. With that being the case, Denver can’t trade its 2022 first-rounder. If Ryan were dealt before June 1 for picks in the 2022 draft, he would more likely fetch a pick in the 33-to-42 range.
The 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo to the Giants for Daniel Jones and a third-round pick.
With Jones alternately injured and ineffective during his first three seasons, the Giants can’t reasonably justify guaranteeing their quarterback’s fifth-year option for the 2023 campaign. They have two first-round picks, which are currently projected to land at Nos. 5 and 6, but this isn’t a great draft for passers. They could try to trade one of those picks for a 2023 first-rounder, but there’s no guarantee they’ll be in position to land two top-10 picks again.
A logical fallback plan might be Garoppolo, who began his career in New England in the same building as Giants coach Joe Judge. As I mentioned in the first scenario, the 49ers can’t expect to extract a premium pick for Garoppolo, but taking a flier on Jones gets the team a competent backup to push Trey Lance for the starting job. Jones might not end up as a premium starter, but his athleticism should make him a high-end backup. Garoppolo would be the short-term starter for the Giants, who could take a quarterback in 2023 if he underwhelms.
Washington trades up with the Jaguars for the No. 1 overall pick.
Elsewhere in the NFC East, Washington is still waiting to find its quarterback of the future. After drafting Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins in 2012, the organization broke Griffin, alienated Cousins, failed to get anything out of 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins and lost Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick to serious injuries.
We think this doesn’t appear to be a great draft for quarterbacks, but all it takes is one organization to fall in love with a signal-caller. As the draft stands, the Jaguars are projected to come away with the top pick. Jacksonville could unquestionably stand to add either of the top edge rushers — Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux or Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson — but if it could get multiple first-rounders, it would go a long way toward replenishing a middling roster.
The Lions and Texans are projected to draft Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, and each would have plausible interest in a quarterback. Washington would need to move all the way up to No. 1 to get ahead of them. It wouldn’t be cheap. It would send its own first-round pick, which projects to be No. 11, plus a second-rounder in 2022 and first-rounders in 2023 and 2024. The Robert Griffin trade didn’t work out a decade ago, but everything else it has done hasn’t worked out, either.
Marcus Mariota signs with the Steelers.
With the top quarterbacks staying put, there aren’t many veterans left in the market for Pittsburgh to chase. Needing a replacement for the retiring Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Tomlin’s team could draft a quarterback at No. 16 while using free agency to add a viable starter in Mariota, who has spent the past two years as the backup in Las Vegas.
His inability to avoid sacks was his biggest flaw in Tennessee, but he’s an effective enough passer to keep the Steelers in games long enough for their defense to pull things out.
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