NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

A huge game on Sunday – and the Packers have chosen to play it without their elite cornerback.  Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:

Jaire Alexander’s strange season has taken another turn. Three days after he anointed himself as one of the Green Bay Packers’ captains — and then made what coach Matt LaFleur called “a big mistake” by nearly botching the call after winning the coin toss — the team suspended him for one game.

He was placed on the reserve/suspended list Wednesday for what the team called “conduct detrimental to the team.”

“The decision to suspend a player is never easy and not one we take lightly,” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said in a statement. “Unfortunately, Jaire’s actions prior to the game in Carolina led us to take this step. As an organization, we have an expectation that everyone puts the team first. While we are disappointed, we had a good conversation with Jaire this morning and fully expect him to learn from this as we move forward together. We look forward to welcoming him back next week as he is a valued member of this team and will continue to be in the future.”

The Packers beat the Carolina Panthers 33-30 to set up what is essentially a playoff elimination game Sunday at the Minnesota Vikings, a meeting of two 7-8 teams vying for an NFC wild-card spot. It means the Packers won’t have Alexander against Vikings star receiver Justin Jefferson.

“Certainly, it was a tough decision, especially kind of where we’re at right now, one we don’t take lightly,” LaFleur said Wednesday. “But there’s standards that we’re all held accountable for, and when they’re not met unfortunately sometimes you’ve got to take some drastic measures. However, I will say that we are expecting, we will get him back and we’re looking forward to get him back. We had a long conversation this morning. I thought it was very productive, and I think in the long run although it’s painful now, I think we’re all going to be better for this moving forward.”

LaFleur was not pleased with Alexander after Sunday’s game at Carolina. Alexander, who grew up in Charlotte, walked to midfield before the game with the Packers’ three game captains — Aaron Jones, Quay Walker and Eric Wilson. The Packers did not elect season-long captains this year, instead using a weekly rotation.

Alexander called tails and won the toss. He then said the Packers wanted to be on defense, which is not the same as choosing to defer their choice to the second half. Referee Alex Kemp could have taken Alexander’s call to mean they wanted to kick off, which then would have allowed Carolina to receive the ball to start both halves. However, because LaFleur, in the pregame meeting with the officials, informed Kemp that the Packers would defer if they won the toss, Kemp clarified that Alexander wanted to defer.

“That was a big mistake,” LaFleur said after the game of Alexander’s call. “That’s something that you review with the guys before they go out there every time about, ‘Hey, we win the toss, we’re going to defer.’ I went to the officials before the game, made sure they knew what we were going to do. We had an incident earlier this year where we had a similar situation, so always trying to be proactive in that approach.”

Alexander did not express any remorse or regret after the game. When asked why he went out with the captains, Alexander said: “It’s only suiting. I don’t think Coach knew I was from Charlotte, so…”

Sunday’s game was the first time Alexander had suited up since Nov. 5, when he suffered a shoulder injury against the Rams. However, he had been practicing on a limited basis but was inactive week after week, leading to questions about whether there was something other than the injury keeping him out. But Alexander and those close to him insisted the issue was injury-related and not displeasure with the organization.

LaFleur also said the suspension had nothing to do with Alexander not being able to play with his injury.

“I’ll just say this: It’s never for one thing,” LaFleur said Wednesday. “But like I said, I think there’s a lot of lessons along the way from everybody involved, and hopefully we learn from them. I think we will. I think there will be probably better communication moving forward.

“I think Ja’s going to be here a long time. He’s a hell of a player, and just looking to move past this and learn from it and we’ll all move forward and be better for it.”

Alexander, the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL at $21 million per season, will lose one week’s pay. However, because most of his money came in signing and roster bonuses, his base salary is $1.08 million, so he will lose only $60,000 (his weekly game check) plus the $38,235 he gets in weekly roster bonuses if he’s active.

Alexander also gave up a $700,000 workout bonus this spring when he opted to skip most of the offseason program. When Alexander reported for the team’s mandatory minicamp in June, he said he preferred to be in Green Bay when no one else was around the team facility, so he had stayed in town after last season but then left when the voluntary workouts began in April.

In six games this season, he has four pass breakups but no interceptions. Alexander has twice been a second-team All-Pro selection (2020, 2022).

This incident clouds Alexander’s future with the Packers. He’s scheduled to make $16 million in salary and bonus in 2024. He has an $8 million roster bonus due in March. If the Packers cut him before then, they would save $1.636 million in salary cap space.

Isn’t there some step before a full game suspension that could have been an appropriate punishment?  We get he’s a knucklehead, but we also get why he wanted to be a hometown captain.

MINNESOTA

And it is the rookie QB JAREN CALL who gets the nod for the Packers game over veterans JOSH DOBB and NICK MULLENS.

Rookie Jaren Hall will start for the second time this season as the Minnesota Vikings will insert him into the lineup instead of Nick Mullens for the team’s critical Week 17 matchup with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.

The decision moves Mullens to the bench after his erratic play during the past two weeks as the Vikings’ starter. Mullens threw for 714 yards and four touchdowns in Weeks 15 and 16, but he added six interceptions during that span as Minnesota lost both games.

Hall, the team’s 2023 fifth-round pick out of BYU, started for the Vikings in Week 9 against the Atlanta Falcons. He sustained a concussion during the first quarter, though, allowing the freshly acquired Josh Dobbs to play and pull off an improbable win. Dobbs started the next four games with Minnesota going 2-2 in that span. Mullens supplanted Dobbs as the starter in Week 15.

For Vikings, tanking for a better draft pick is a more difficult proposition than it seems

Hall first saw action when he replaced Kirk Cousins in the lineup in Week 8 after Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury. Hall has thrown for 101 yards in two appearances this season.

The Vikings (7-8) have lost four of their last five games and have a 47 percent chance to make the postseason if they beat the Packers. Minnesota will have a four percent chance at the playoffs if it loses in Week 17.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Someone could make a full officiating tape over all the plays with what looks like a hold on EDGE MICAH PARSONS – where no holding is seen by the officials.

Parsons with some quotes, and Todd Archer of ESPN.com with some numbers:

Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons has not drawn a holding penalty since Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers. His patience has run thin.

“It’s been long, you know? And I can say I’ve been to the quarterback quite a lot in that time, so it’s definitely frustrating sometimes,” Parsons said. “But at the end of the day, I kind of understand it comes with the territory.”

Parsons was public with his frustration on his podcast two weeks ago. On social media earlier this week, he posted a picture of him being held in last week’s loss to the Miami Dolphins, which was not called. Parsons was penalized for roughing the passer for a hit on Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa that led to Miami’s only touchdown of the game.

“I think the refs understand I’m a good player,” Parsons said, “but they don’t understand the actual plays I can make with my speed and what I can control.”

Parsons has 13 sacks on the season and joined Hall of Famer Reggie White as the only players to open a career with at least 13 sacks in each of their first three seasons. But Parsons believes he is officiated differently than other players.

“To be honest, in the most humblest way ever, I don’t think there’s another rusher like me in the league,” Parsons said. “I don’t think there’s a rusher that runs as quick as I do. There’s not a rusher that does the things that I do. I mean, that’s on tape and I’m pretty sure other rushers can tell you that or whoever. So I think they put me on the same pedestal as other rushers, and we’re just all not the same. You can’t compare me to a lot of other rushers at all. And how they scheme me versus how they scheme other rushers, it’s just not even the same. I don’t think they take that into [account] at all and I don’t think they realize I’m 4.3 coming off the edge versus some dudes might be 4.4 or 4.5, whatever.”

Only three teams have drawn fewer offensive holding penalties than the Cowboys’ 13. The Las Vegas Raiders, with star pass-rusher Maxx Crosby, have drawn the most holding calls at 26. The only other holding penalty drawn by Parsons came in the Cowboys’ Week 2 win against the New York Jets.

Parsons has been outspoken about the lack of calls. He hopes the league looks into the possibility of using instant replay to get more calls for pass-rushers. He said he has spoken to officials before and during games to look for penalties but to no avail.

“I just keep it rolling, bro. It kinda is what it is,” Parsons said. “I’m not a flop guy. I’m not a guy that’s going to fake because I believe I can still make that play. A lot of plays get made above the [2.3-second range], so at the end of the day, I just got to keep playing through things. It’s adversity. It’s challenges. But I’m just going to keep going forward.”

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

The Buccaneers are on the precipice of a third straight division title.

We wrote the previous sentence before we opened Kevin Patra’s story on QB BAKER MAYFIELD:

Baker Mayfield has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the precipice of a third straight NFC South title.

With a win on Sunday over the New Orleans Saints, the Bucs would clinch the division and make their fourth consecutive playoff appearance — the only NFC team to do so. In a season most expected a rebuild after Tom Brady’s retirement, Mayfield has Tampa on the precipice of a playoff return. Even with a loss Sunday, the Bucs have a 67% chance to make the postseason, per Next Gen Stats, needing to win only one of its final two games to clinch the division.

“It means a ton just to be able to possibly do it at home, and against a divisional opponent, as well,” Mayfield said on Wednesday of the prospects of winning the division, via the team’s official transcript. “It should be a great atmosphere. The things we’ve had to do and go through to get to this point — it means quite a bit when you look at having to rattle off this many in a row and having to do it again at home. It’s a great opportunity for us and just the beginning of where we eventually want to get to.”

The journey has been fraught with massive ebbs and flows. A 3-1 start to the season turned to 4-7 after losing six of seven tilts. But a four-game win streak has the Bucs back on track.

With a win over New Orleans, Mayfield would do something with Tampa that Brady never did in the regular season: win five straight games. The Bucs haven’t won five consecutive games in the same regular season since Weeks 10-14, 2016, with Jameis Winston at the helm.

Much like the Bucs season, Mayfield’s career has experienced heavy pitching in rough waters. He burst onto the scene as a rookie with the Browns, eventually leading them to the postseason in 2020, but quickly washed out of Cleveland. Last year, he was traded to Carolina, where he lasted just six starts before requesting his release last December. Mayfield found new life in Los Angeles under Sean McVay, starting four tilts for the Rams.

In the offseason, Mayfield signed a low-cost one-year $4 million prove-it deal. He’s proven it in every way.

“Obviously, free agency allowed me to pick the organizational stability and knowing what it is here,” Mayfield said on Wednesday. “That’s what you look for when you have an opportunity to choose. You look for that and then you do the best you can and make the most of it. Right now, I’m just trying to take it one game at a time, like I’ve mentioned the past few weeks, and just see where it goes.”

With another win, he’ll meet more incentives to boost his 2023 earnings, including $1 million for making the postseason. 

Mayfield is averaging 239.9 passing yards per game with 26 TDs to eight TDs and currently sits with a career-high 96.2 passer rating.

The QB’s play has been the leading cause of the Bucs resurgence. In the first 13 weeks, Mayfield had 18 TD passes with eight INTs as the offense scored 19.4 points per game. In the past three contests, the QB has eight passing TDs with zero INTs, as Tampa has scored 31.0 points per game. Toss in Mayfield’s improved pocket presence, and an occasional run where he attempts to plow over a defender, and the Bucs have themselves a leader.

“I just think that’s who he is. That’s the kind of guy he is,” Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said Wednesday. “He doesn’t have to put on a façade to go out there and be a leader. He does the things he normally does. He leads by example – sometimes he leads by vocality and he talks it. He leads by actions, as well. The type of guy he is is energized every day, motivated every day, focused every day and everybody sees that. He makes it easy to play for and easy to follow.”

Mayfield’s play has him in the discussion for AP Comeback Player of the Year — an amorphous award that can go to a player “coming back” from just about anything (Geno Smith won last year for coming back from the bench).

“It’s humbling. It’s an honor,” Mayfield said of being discussed for the award. “It’s kind of a big-picture mindset — if I take a step back and really look at it — of all the things that I’ve had to weather in the last year. It really speaks volumes to this place right here. To be able to come in and be myself and be the best version of myself, they’ve allowed me to do that. That’s been the best reason.”

The Bucs are on the doorstep of a postseason berth in a season in which they incurred $81.5 million in dead money — including $35 million from Brady’s deal. A lot of the reason for that success goes to young players playing well — like rookie linebacker YaYa Diaby. But the biggest piece of the puzzle is a $4 million QB playing better than some $37 million QBs.

The Comeback Player of the Year Award is going to be interesting.  There was a time that it couldn’t go to anyone else but Bills DB DEMAR HAMLIN because he was playing after being on death’s door.

But while he has comeback from the lowest starting point, he hasn’t reached any particular heights as a player.

He’s still the favorite, but Mayfield and three other QBs have reached on-field heights after significant professional lows.  Hamlin is still the favorite:

HAMLIN, DAMAR                        -220

FLACCO, JOE                            +350

MAYFIELD, BAKER                   +700

STAFFORD, MATTHEW            +1200

TAGOVAILOA, TUA                    +3000

AFC WEST

DENVER

Christian Arnold of the New York Post on QB RUSSELL WILSON’s on-line reaction to being benched – along with a few other tidbits:

Russell Wilson seemingly addressed the news of his benching and likely end of his tenure with the Broncos with a post on X on Wednesday night.

It had been a truly whirlwind day for the veteran quarterback after it was first reported by ESPN that Denver was handing over the starting job to Jarrett Stidham.

The Athletic later reported that the Broncos were planning to cut Wilson in March to end what has been an underwhelming marriage.

Amid all this, Wilson hadn’t been heard from until late Wednesday night when he finally broke the silence in a cryptic post on X.

“God’s got me. Looking forward to what’s next,” Wilson simply wrote.

The situation between Wilson and the Broncos appeared to deteriorate quickly, but under the surface, Wilson reportedly had known for months that they were planning on moving on from him.

According to The Athletic, the Broncos reached out on Oct. 29 to tell a Wilson representative that the signal-caller would lose his role as the starter and that he would be made inactive for the rest of the year if he didn’t defer an injury guarantee trigger date he has for 2025.

Inside the Broncos’ locker room on Wednesday, the news seemed to catch some players off guard, including wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.

“I’m pretty surprised. He just told us out of nowhere, so yeah I was pretty surprised,” Jeudy told reporters. “Having Russ [as] our starting the quarterback the whole year, then the last two games, being a switch. I think it was a surprise to everybody in the locker room.”

The financial implications — with Wilson reportedly guaranteed $37 million in 2025 if he’s injured and can’t pass a physical — have been hard to avoid in the whole situation, despite the efforts of head coach Sean Payton, who told reporters that the decision was based on the team “desperately trying to win.”

In that time, Wilson has started 30 games and has thrown for 6,594 yards, 42 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with a pair of posts about the mess. First, on the Broncos trying to intimidate him into a pay cut:

If it wasn’t already clear that the Broncos and Russell Wilson have crossed the proverbial Rubicon, a nugget buried in last night’s article from Mark Maske of the Washington Post removes any and all lingering doubt.

Maske reports that the Broncos “previously threatened to bench Wilson for the rest of the season if he did not agree to rework his contract to address the injury guarantee.” Maske adds that one such threat was made after the Broncos upset the Chiefs on October 29.

The NFL and the NFL Players Association “became involved,” per the report. Which suggests that Wilson, not the Broncos, sought intervention. Ultimately, however, there’s nothing the league nor the union can do to force a team to play a player. The Broncos have the absolute right to put Wilson in bubble wrap in order to preserve their ability to cut him before a $37 million injury guarantee becomes fully guaranteed.

The fact that the Broncos didn’t make good on the threat until this week is surprising. As the team started winning games, however, they apparently decided to let it ride with Russ.

It’s also surprising that they’re benching Wilson while still alive for a playoff spot. Yes, they need a spark. They also need to be sure that they don’t set themselves up to owe Wilson another $37 million, if he can’t pass a physical before his $37 million in 2025 salary flips from guaranteed for injury to guaranteed for everything.

Still, the report of a lingering tussle between the Broncos and Wilson over his guaranteed money provides further proof that it’s over and done. He’ll be cut. He’ll become a free agent. He’ll go wherever he wants, and wherever he’s wanted.

And if he’s willing to play in 2024 for the veteran minimum of $1.21 million (with the Broncos paying the rest), Wilson should have many suitors.

And this on the forks in the road, both leading to a cap cliff.

The biggest takeaway from Wednesday’s stunning news that the Broncos have benched quarterback Russell Wilson is that the Broncos will release him before another $37 million in future salary flips from guaranteed for injury to fully guaranteed. That will need to happen between the first day of the waiver period (right after the Super Bowl) and the fifth day of the league year, which begins on March 13.

The transaction will result in $89 million in cap charges, arising from money already paid and his 2024 fully-guaranteed compensation of $39 million. The Broncos can either take the entire hit in 2024, or they can designate Wilson as a post-June 1 release and limit the cap charge to $35.4 million in 2024 and $53.6 million in 2025.

The Broncos eventually would get a credit for Wilson’s earnings elsewhere in 2024. If he takes the one-year veteran minimum of $1.21 million from his next team, that’s all the Broncos will get by way of credit.

It’s still better than the cap consequences of keeping him. His cap number for 2024 would be $35.4 million under his current deal, along with $55.4 million in 2025. That’s $90.8 million. Also, cutting him saves $37 million in cash.

Will this hurt Denver’s ability to field the most competitive team possible in 2024? Sure. But it won’t be impossible. The Buccaneers are closing in on a division championship despite carrying more than $75 million in dead money, with $35 million of it coming from Tom Brady. Also, with the cap going up and up and up, the relative impact of seemingly staggering cap charges continues to drop as the cap continues to rise.

KANSAS CITY

Veteran Chiefs scribe has no problem calling this the worst season ever for QB PATRICK MAHOMES:

Where would you rank Patrick Mahomes’ 2023 season among the six he has started in the NFL?

This one is at the bottom, and it really hasn’t been close to any of the others. Things around Mahomes are a mess — including a lackluster receiver corps — and he has clearly been affected.

Statistically, it is his worst season, as he is tied for 18th in yards per attempt (6.9), 30th in air yards per attempt (6.3) and seventh in QBR (63.1). He has already thrown more interceptions (14) than in any of his previous seasons. — Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

Is Jake Trotter saying that the franchise QB doesn’t have a big arm?

What is the biggest way that Joe Flacco has changed the Browns’ offense?

Flacco has brought a veteran confidence to an offense that desperately needed it. But his big arm has also completely transformed the Browns into a dangerous downfield passing attack.

Since Flacco took over, Cleveland ranks eighth in yards per passing attempt (7.4 yards). Before that, it was 31st (5.7). Flacco also leads the NFL over the past four games with 1,307 passing yards. For context, the Browns had passed for only 1,993 in the 11 games prior to Flacco taking over, which ranked 28th in the NFL.

PITTSBURGH

Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com on whether or not KENNY PICKETT will be the unquestioned QB1 for the Steelers next year.

Do you expect Kenny Pickett to enter the 2024 season as the Steelers’ QB1?

There’s no denying that Pickett’s second season has been a massive disappointment. His QBR dropped from 53.6 in 2022 to 38.3 in 2023, and he threw just six passing touchdowns in 12 games — one fewer than his rookie season. But the Steelers aren’t an organization that makes rash decisions. And even after the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada and Pickett’s ankle sprain and surgery, the QB is poised to enter the 2024 season as the starter in what will be a make-or-break year.

It will then be up to the new offensive coordinator that the Steelers hire this offseason to get the most out of Pickett and his offensive supporting cast, which will give the franchise another opportunity to evaluate Pickett before the fifth-year option decision comes due in May 2025. —

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

The change of Joe Brady for Ken Dorsey as OC seems to have worked.  Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:

What has been the biggest change in Allen’s game since Joe Brady took over as the Bills’ playcaller?

Brady has brought energy to the Buffalo offense over the past five games, something that you’ll hear throughout the locker room and something that has reflected in Allen’s game. His playing style more closely resembles the Allen of the previous few seasons, rather than what we saw earlier this season. That includes him putting together late drives when the offense needs it and an increase in designed quarterback runs (16 over the first 10 games compared to 19 in the past five).

Allen’s personality has also been more visible on the field in celebrations, with Brady saying of Allen before last week’s game vs. the Chargers, “I know he’s having a lot of joy playing ball right now.”

NEW ENGLAND

If a decision was allegedly made to “move on” from Bill Belichick after the disastrous trip to Germany, Patriots owner Robert Kraft may be re-thinking it.  Dakota Randall at NESN.

Last month, Robert Kraft reportedly was set on parting ways with Bill Belichick after this season. But the Patriots owner might be wavering.

During a Tuesday appearance on 98.5 The Sports Hub, Greg Bedard of Boston Sports Journal reported that Kraft is “conflicted” on how to handle Belichick. Bedard added that Kraft’s indecision has less to do with Belichick leading New England to recent victories, and more to do with whether he really has the conviction to fire a legendary head coach.

“I don’t think winning two of the last three against teams going nowhere — to me, that doesn’t change what’s fundamentally wrong with the football program of the Patriots,” Bedard said. “However, I will say that, making calls the last day or so and talking to people … I think Robert is making calls and talking to people that know of the Patriots’ football program. … I did talk to one person who said that they think that Robert is quote-unquote conflicted at this point. And I think that, all things being equal … I do think that the Krafts had settled on, ‘We need to move on after this season.’ I do think there’s a difference between making that decision and Robert actually going through with it. Actually sitting down with Bill and saying, ‘I think it’s time for us to go different ways.’ … I do think that it’s gonna be hard for Robert to ultimately pull the trigger.”

Bedard added: “I think Robert Kraft is conflicted about what to do about Bill Belichick. And, at this point, I don’t rule anything out.”

Bedard’s intel arrived shortly after fellow BSJ columnist Mike Giardi reported Belichick recently has expressed doubt about his Patriots future while speaking with assistant coaches.

One thing is clear: With the end of the regular season fast approaching, speculation surrounding Belichick’s job status only will increase. New England will finish the 2023 campaign with a road game against the Buffalo Bills and a home matchup with the New York Jets.

THIS AND THAT

HALL OF FAME CLASS OF 2024

The finalists are announced with two newcomers – Julius Peppers and Antonio Gates – joining the ranks in their first year of eligibility.  We would think both would get in this year.  The AP:

First-time candidates Julius Peppers and Antonio Gates joined nine returning finalists who advanced to the final stage of voting for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s class of 2024.

Peppers and Gates were announced Wednesday as finalists in their first year of eligibility. They will be joined on the 15-player ballot by five-time finalist wide receivers Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne.

Seven other players returned as finalists, with Patrick Willis, Andre Johnson, Dwight Freeney, Jared Allen, Willie Anderson, Darren Woodson and Devin Hester all back to this step.

Defensive backs Eric Allen and Rodney Harrison, running back Fred Taylor and offensive lineman Jahri Evans made it to this stage for the first time after previously being semifinalists.

The 15 finalists will be trimmed to 10 then to five during the selection meeting early next year. The final five candidates will need to receive 80% of the votes from the panel to get into the Hall.

Four finalists previously announced are Buddy Parker in the coaching category, and Randy Gradishar, Steve McMichael and Art Powell in the senior category. They also will get in if they earn support from at least 80% of voters.

The class of 2024 will be announced at the NFL Honors show in Las Vegas on Feb. 8, when The Associated Press’ season awards for 2023 also will be announced.

Peppers and Gates were both college basketball players before finding their greatest success in football.

Peppers was one of the league’s most dominant linemen after being picked second overall by the Carolina Panthers in 2002 following a two-sport career in college at North Carolina.

He had 12 sacks as a rookie and never really slowed down in a 17-year career that included stops in Chicago and Green Bay before ending up with the Panthers again. He was an All-Pro in 2004, 2006 and 2010.

Peppers finished his career with 159.5 sacks — the fourth most since they became official in 1982. He had 10 seasons with double-digit sacks; only Hall of Famers Bruce Smith (13) and Reggie White (12) had more.

Gates played only basketball in college before turning into one of the NFL’s top tight ends. He switched to football after going undrafted in basketball.

The Chargers took a chance on him, and it paid off in a big way, as he became an All-Pro in just his second season, in 2004. He was an All-Pro again the next two campaigns and went on to have a 16-year career for the team.

Gates finished with 955 catches for 11,841 yards and an NFL record for tight ends with 116 touchdown receptions. Only Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have more catches or receiving yards as a tight end.

The 15 finalists also include three prolific wideouts, with Johnson, Holt and Wayne all catching more than 900 passes and ranking in the top 20 in career yards receiving.

Allen and Freeney rank in the top 20 all time in sacks, and they had four and three first-team All-Pro selections, respectively.

Willis (five), Evans (four), Anderson (three), Woodson (three), Hester (three) and Harrison (two) all enjoyed multiple first-team All-Pro selections.

We say DL Peppers, TE Gates, S Woodson and two of the receivers.

BROADCAST NEWS

Head-to-head on Christmas Day – the NFL crushed the NBA.  6 to 1 in the “best” matchup for the NBA.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

For the second straight Christmas Day, the NFL and NBA had games on TV at the same time. And the NBA’s ratings cratered in Year Two.

Via SportsMediaWatch.com, the available numbers show a significant drop in NBA viewership from 2022 to 2023.

Celtics-Lakers drew 5 million toward viewers. That was an 18-percent drop from last year’s Bucks-Celtics game, which had an audience of 6.08 million in the same window.

Bucks-Knicks had 2.49 million, down 39 percent from Sixers-Knicks in the same window a year earlier. Mavericks-Suns had 1.37 million, a 42 percent drop from Suns-Nuggets. Sixers-Heat attracted 1.3 million, a 73-percent drop from Grizzlies-Warriors.

The ratings for Warriors-Nuggets were not yet available. That’s the NBA’s last remaining hope to reverse a trend that has made the NFL the top draw, by far, on Christmas.

On Monday, 31 million watched Raiders-Chiefs, 29 million watched Giants-Eagles, and 29.2 million watched Ravens-49ers.

The NFL has said it won’t stage games next year on Christmas, when it falls on a Wednesday. Why, however, would the NFL ever surrender the territory that it was so quickly captured on a day that, like Thanksgiving, features a captive audience with few options.

MVP CANDIDATES

Mike Sando of The Athletic:

There’s a reason NFL MVP odds keep shifting. It’s been a bad season for quarterbacks, with players at other positions failing to maintain record-setting paces. There has been no clear-cut favorite, pushing added importance onto the season’s final two weeks.

Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen took turns as favorites through the first five weeks.

Mahomes moved into the lead until Jalen Hurts eclipsed him in Week 12.

Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott took over in Week 14. Prescott pulled ahead a week later. Purdy retook the lead a week after that, then imploded with four interceptions during a Christmas night blowout defeat to Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens.

Jackson is now a solid betting favorite over Christian McCaffrey entering the final two weeks before voters cast ballots, even though his production does not approach the standard he set in 2019 as the most recent MVP to win the award unanimously.

This year, the cases against the leading MVP candidates seem stronger than the cases for them, but somebody is going to win. Here’s how I see the candidates, and why the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford could have an intriguing case, despite barely registering in the betting markets.

The ideal MVP candidate is a quarterback (the most important position) whose record-setting or otherwise elite production (which is easy to quantify) helps his team win with a highly-rated offense in spite of weak defense/special teams.

There is no greater way to demonstrate value in the NFL.

One of my first considerations when evaluating MVP candidates is to evaluate how their teams win the games.

For players on offense, specifically quarterbacks, I’ll separate team EPA into two buckets: one bucket for offense, the other for defense and special teams.

The QB Betrayal Index spawned from this, revealing the uphill fight players such as Drew Brees, Justin Herbert and Tony Romo faced trying to drive team success while the components beyond their control served as strong headwinds.

The chart below separates 2023 offensive EPA from combined defensive/special teams EPA for nine teams with MVP candidates. The teams are ordered from most to least offensive EPA. Hovering over or clicking on the bars reveals the candidates’ names.

Mahomes might be the best player in the game, but the Chiefs’ offense, with its minus-7.5 EPA for the season, is making it more difficult to win on the whole, a shocking reversal from previous form. Compared to 2022, Kansas City has lost 11.1 EPA per game on offense through the first 15 games, the second-largest drop behind the New York Giants (13.3).

The MVP is not the, “Look, I know we are just OK, but we would be way worse without this player” award. A quarterback should not win MVP unless his efforts translate to a certain level of production. That is difficult this season, when only nine offenses are producing positive EPA. The Seattle Seahawks actually rank 10th right now, one spot ahead of Kansas City. Does anyone think Seattle has a top-10 offense? No! But they do in the current environment.

Jackson’s Ravens stand out here as well. They have been good on offense, ranking eighth in EPA per play. Jackson has successfully transitioned to playing a new offensive style. He is arguably the most important player on the NFL’s best team. He should get credit for continuing to produce after losing multiple starting running backs and All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, his No. 1 target, to injuries.

It’s just impossible to look at the chart above or watch the games and conclude that the Ravens are winning primarily because of their offense. Jackson, with his 3,357 yards passing and 786 yards rushing, is a huge part of a smaller offensive pie.

What would the Ravens look like without him?

With their elite defense, they might look like the Cleveland Browns, who have cycled through four starting quarterbacks without getting even average production from any.

The Browns, like the Ravens, brought the 49ers’ offense to its knees. The Browns had to gut out a close victory over San Francisco because they did not have an upper-tier quarterback such as Jackson to lead their offense. The Browns have gone 10-5 despite ranking 28th in offensive EPA per play because their defense ranks No. 1 by a wide margin (the Ravens rank second).

Baltimore’s 33-19 victory over the 49ers was instructive. Jackson missed drive-sustaining throws early in the game and took a safety when a game official accidentally tripped him. This might have been disastrous for most teams facing the 49ers on the road, but Baltimore’s defense prevented San Francisco from jumping to a big lead. The 49ers had 12 points through three quarters. This allowed Jackson and the offense to bide their time without getting into must-pass situations, maintaining a stress-free environment for the offense.

As the game went along, Jackson contributed special plays to help Baltimore win big. When the game was finished, the Ravens’ defense (plus-10.1 EPA) and special teams (plus-0.8) accounted for about 11 of the 14 points separating the teams on the scoreboard. It was a great team victory.

If the MVP ideally would not go to a great quarterback who keeps an underperforming offense from being even worse (Mahomes), or to the good quarterback whose team wins primarily with defense (Jackson), it should not automatically go to the quarterback for the team with the most productive offense, either.

Purdy’s candidacy was always problematic because the 49ers’ scheme and weaponry do outsized work. Kyle Shanahan’s seven-season run as the 49ers’ coach makes this obvious.

From Shanahan’s 2017 hiring through last season, Mahomes and Drew Brees ranked 1-2 in EPA per pass play. Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers ranked 4-5.

The fact that Purdy’s predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo, ranked third highlights team- and scheme-added value. Purdy has been better than Garoppolo, but he was going to need a nearly perfect season to win MVP. That is the type of season Purdy was enjoying until Monday. What happened against Baltimore might have killed his candidacy.

Tagovailoa’s candidacy is a bit similar in that his team’s scheme and weaponry siphon off outsized credit for his production, fairly or not. He ranks second to Purdy in EPA per pass play.

That is what makes Stafford an intriguing candidate if his Rams finish strong and reach the playoffs (a measure of team success should be required of the winner, in the absence of a historic season and mitigating circumstances).

Los Angeles’ low-budget defense is outperforming expectations with a No. 20 ranking in EPA per play, but the Rams’ special teams have been so bad that L.A. ranks 29th in combined EPA on defense and special teams. The Rams are 8-6 when Stafford starts (he missed one game) and rank sixth in EPA per play on offense even with a disastrous performance at Green Bay in the one game Stafford missed (they would rank fourth if we excluded that performance).

The Rams took the Ravens to overtime at Baltimore, with Stafford passing for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Against Baltimore, the Rams gained more than 15 yards on 30 percent of passes when gaining that many yards was possible. No other Ravens opponent has hit even 20 percent.

What would the Rams look like without Stafford? We saw what they looked like without him during a 20-3 defeat at Green Bay: three points, 10 first downs, 187 yards.

These were not Vince Lombardi’s Packers on defense, either.

Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito registered their season-best marks for EPA per pass play against Green Bay. The since-benched Russell Wilson registered his second-best mark of the season against the Packers. Mayfield became the first visiting player in Lambeau Field’s 417-game history to post the highest possible passer rating (158.3).

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But when the Rams visited Lambeau without Stafford, backup Brett Rypien completed 13 of 28 passes for 130 yards and an interception, plus a lost fumble. His 45.2 passer rating was 30 points lower than the ratings for any other Packers opponent this season.

Meanwhile, in games against the elite defenses of Cleveland and Baltimore, Stafford passed for 573 yards with six touchdowns, no interceptions, two sacks and a 106.4 passer rating. The Rams amassed 20.8 EPA on offense in those games, beating Cleveland 36-19 and losing to Baltimore when the Ravens returned a punt for a touchdown during overtime.

If Stafford finishes the season with a playoff-clinching victory over the 49ers, his candidacy should come to life.

Quarterbacks have won the past 10 MVP awards. McCaffrey and Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill are the non-quarterbacks with the strongest cases among offensive players.

Hill’s candidacy is stalling after he suffered an ankle injury against Tennessee and missed a game. He’s playing through the injury now and, as the chart below reveals, would need 325 yards over the final two weeks to overtake Calvin Johnson’s single-season record. Hill was once on pace to break the record in 16 games. He had 99 yards against Dallas in Week 15.

McCaffrey is not on a record statistical pace for running backs, but he’s enjoying an outstanding season. His 128.8-yard average for scrimmage yards per game puts him within striking distance of the past four running backs to win MVP honors. LaDainian Tomlinson (149.5 in 2006), Marshall Faulk (148.3 in 2000) and Adrian Peterson (140.9 in 2012) were even more productive.

McCaffrey vs MVP RBs: Yards/Game & TDs

LaDainian Tomlinson (2006)   116.6      32.9           149.5             31

Marshall Faulk (2000)               87.6       60.7           148.3            23

Adrian Peterson (2012)             126.5    14.3            140.9           11

Christian McCaffrey (2023)       93.0      35.8            128.8            21

Shaun Alexander (2005)          120.5     5.2              125.7           27

Cleveland’s ability to win 10 games (and counting) with such terrible production from its offense should bring the Browns’ best defensive player, Myles Garrett, into the discussion. Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to win MVP, in 1986. Garrett is great, but is he ’86 L.T. great? Should that even be the standard in a season when defense has dominated?

The final two weeks could be critical for tipping the MVP discussion toward a single candidate.

The Cowboys’ Prescott and the Bills’ Allen should not be overlooked.

Prescott ranks third and Allen fourth in EPA per pass play. Over an eight-game stretch, Prescott had 23 touchdown passes with two interceptions, the type of run that helped put Cam Newton’s MVP candidacy over the top in 2015. Allen carried the Bills when the team was struggling to win consistently; the team has helped him out more recently, to the point where Allen joked after beating Dallas that he felt “like the kid that didn’t do anything in the class project but got an A” for his work anyway.

Jackson has a chance to cement his status as the favorite in finishing games against the Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers. Oddsmakers say the award is his to lose, but in this unusual season for quarterbacks, perceptions have shifted quickly.