The Daily Briefing Thursday, December 30, 2021

The Lions got a good one with WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN (whose name is easier to spell than his brother’s).  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

All things considered, the Lions had a solid month of December, going 2-2 with victories over the Vikings and Cardinals.

But one of their young receivers delivered in all four games, providing a lift for the offense and perhaps a glimpse into the future.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been named the offensive rookie of the month for December. He caught 35 passes for 340 yards with three touchdowns and rushed four times for 26 yards.

He caught the game-winning, 11-yard touchdown from quarterback Jared Goff to defeat the Vikings in Week 13. Then he had another eight receptions for 90 yards with a TD in the 30-12 victory over Arizona in Week 15.

Through 15 games, St. Brown leads the Lions with 74 receptions and 692 yards.

He and the Lions will try to finish strong with games against the Seahawks and Packers to end the 2021 season.

GREEN BAY

After bagging another NFL MVP-caliber season, QB AARON RODGERS holds a lot of high cards in his poker game with the Packers.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com takes a look at how things might play out:

On Wednesday, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers made it clear that he’ll make an early decision regarding whether he’ll retire. The decision that precedes his decision likely will have a major influence on the eventual decision.

Rodgers has made his feelings clear. He has made his value even more clear. He’s making $33.5 million per year. That’s Jared Goff money. And Aaron Rodgers most definitely is not Jared Goff.

So, in our view, it’s up to the Packers to move quickly to make Rodgers the kind of offer that inherently reflects both an understanding of the market and an appreciation of what Rodgers has done and will continue to do for the franchise. Money talks. Money speaks volumes. And the money that the Packers do or don’t offer Rodgers — coupled with the structure of the package — could go a long way toward convincing Rodgers whether he does or doesn’t want to stay.

There’s no owner in Green Bay to Scrooge away the profits. Everything goes back to the team. And with millions in money for nothing currently flowing through the cash register via the ongoing non-stock stock sale, the Packers have the ability to make Rodgers the highest-paid player in football, with true and firm guarantees toward that end, for two or more seasons.

Although the Packers can’t undo the drafting of Jordan Love, they can make Love moot by giving Rodgers the kind of contract that makes him the starter for the final two years of Love’s rookie deal, and perhaps for the option year. Maybe they’d even trade Love, the ultimate acknowledgement of the fact that they did Rodgers wrong, and that they’re genuinely and truly trying to make things right.

In this chess match between Cheeseheads and churlish (at times) quarterback, the first move by the team will go a long way toward determining the player’s next move. If he likes what they offer, maybe he accepts it and puts to rest any and all talk of finishing his career elsewhere. If he doesn’t like it, then he asks to be traded or retires if he isn’t. Possibly with a plan to unretire in July, like Brett Favre did 14 years ago.

For as complicated as things have gotten, it’s really fairly simple. The Packers have failed to show Rodgers proper appreciation in recent years. They’ve definitely failed to adjust his compensation to reflect the market dynamics. He’s likely giving them a chance to make things right. If they do, he stays. If they don’t, he goes.

Your move, Green Bay Packers, Inc.

This from Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com on possible destinations:

Rodgers himself hinted at the possibility this week, telling reporters he has an improved relationship with Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and will make a “quick decision” after the 2021 campaign regarding his future. This comes, of course, after his months-long offseason feud with the franchise, in which he sought more input on team decisions and refused to deny trade rumors. The Packers reportedly appeased Rodgers prior to 2021 by reworking his contract and agreeing to reevaluate his standing after the season.

Now, with another playoff run and MVP race guaranteed, what is Rodgers’ most likely destination in 2022, when he could conceivably be traded? Here’s how we’d rank the potential suitors:

8. Eagles

Jalen Hurts has shown a lot of athleticism and fortitude in his first year as QB1 for a chippy playoff contender, but GM Howie Roseman has reason to explore the market for a superior passer, especially with multiple high draft picks at his disposal. Rodgers may be a short-term solution for a team preaching patience, but Roseman is notoriously aggressive, and Philly would embrace the idea of pairing such a star QB with new playmakers like DeVonta Smith. The issue is twofold: the Packers wouldn’t prefer Rodgers sticking in the NFC, and who knows if Rodgers would sign up for more of a rebuilding scenario under a young coach.

7. Raiders

Derek Carr is a fine starter, but he’s easily expendable in 2022, when the whole team could be enduring a reset. With plenty of cap space, the Raiders could surely make an offer, promising Rodgers a move closer to his West Coast home, a hand in their head-coach hiring process, and perhaps a big offer for his friend Davante Adams. But they have so many other holes, they feel quite a bit further from real contention than other logical suitors. Would Rodgers really be eager to jump from the Packers to this setup?

6. Washington

Who knows what Rodgers thinks of its generally dysfunctional ownership? This isn’t exactly a dream destination for most. Football-wise, though, the building blocks are there: a respected veteran coach in Ron Rivera, a high-ceiling defense, some young playmakers (Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, etc.) who would theoretically take off with a superior QB, and a very winnable division. Washington has never been shy about taking swings for veteran QBs, and Rivera has both the cash and lack of reliable passers to justify a big offer. The question is whether the Packers would even consider dealing him in the same conference.

5. Browns

No matter what Kevin Stefanski says about Baker Mayfield, the latter seems destined to face competition — or an all-out exile — after an underwhelming 2021. And he should, considering Cleveland is otherwise mostly built to contend with a rock-solid O-line, an elite running back and promising defense. Stefanski isn’t so unlike Matt LaFleur — a young, proven offensive mind — and could appeal to Rodgers, especially if Davante Adams is part of the relocation. The market isn’t necessarily a draw, but perhaps Rodgers would see it as a chance to elevate his own legacy by finally bringing the Browns into contemporary stardom.

4. Broncos

GM George Paton knows all too well what Rodgers can do, coming from a career in Minnesota. The Broncos have been linked heavily to Rodgers before, and they’re even more desperate for a QB now with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock confirmed as non-answers. John Elway could point to Peyton Manning as evidence of a superstar veteran lifting the entire franchise, and Denver has the cap space to get creative. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton would offer Rodgers solid WRs to start, and No. 12 would also get a ready-made defense, as well as the chance to handpick a replacement for Vic Fangio.

3. Steelers

If Pittsburgh weren’t historically averse to these kinds of blockbuster swings, it’d easily rank higher. Everything fits: Rodgers and Mike Tomlin have a deep respect for each other, the Steelers are an iconic franchise and proven winner, and Ben Roethlisberger has already indicated he’s headed to retirement. Pittsburgh has the defense to contend now, and if it were to finagle enough money to bring Davante Adams with Rodgers, that combo with Najee Harris (and a restored O-line) would be scary. Tomlin has the track record to push ownership for a quick fix at QB, and at least Green Bay would be shipping Rodgers to the AFC.

2. Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa is doing his job as a second-year starter, and he’s earned more audition time. But when has that stopped aggressive teams from acting? Miami thrived with Ryan Fitzpatrick as Tua relief in 2020, then reportedly kept eyes on Deshaun Watson despite his litany of legal issues. Rodgers would fulfill that desire for established help, and then some. A-Rod, meanwhile, would get the Tom Brady-style move to sunny Florida, where the Dolphins are absolutely flush with cap space (Davante Adams package deal?) and boast a defense ready to win now.

1. Packers

It’s the easy answer right now. But it’s also the right answer. Since Green Bay spent a first-round pick on QB Jordan Love, establishing a Rodgers succession plan, Rodgers has literally turned in back-to-back MVP-caliber seasons, effectively winning the war against his own front office. He made headlines this year by yelling on the field that he owns the Bears, but in the bigger picture, he also owns the Packers. How on Earth could Green Bay justify prioritizing the “future” at QB when Rodgers has proven, twice now, that he’s still the present? He can — and will — dictate financial and personnel matters for at least the next few seasons, and the Packers will almost certainly approve, considering he’s the biggest reason they remain a title contender.

Hmmmm.  No Panthers on this list?  No Saints?

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Dan Pompei of The Athletic notes some good coaching with the Falcons with a deep dive on the unique talents of SWISS ARMY KNIFE CORDARRELLE PATTERSON.

On fourth-and-1 from the opponent’s 6 Sunday, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith wasn’t looking for a first down. He wanted a touchdown.

He called for a toss sweep to Cordarrelle Patterson, who followed a block by tight end Kyle Pitts and beat Lions safety Will Harris to the corner of the end zone.

If history was the guide, Patterson had no business being on the field in that situation. He had no business taking the pitch, no business scoring his 11th touchdown of the season, no business wearing a bright red cleat on his right foot that carried the message, “No Pro Bowl? No Problem!”

But the fact he wasn’t invited to the Pro Bowl is kind of a problem. Pro Football Focus ranks him the sixth-best rusher in the NFL, one spot ahead of Nick Chubb, one place behind Jonathan Taylor. Patterson is the Falcons’ leading touchdown scorer and rusher, and their third-leading receiver. Moreover, he is the focal point of their offense, and the yards he’s gained don’t come close to measuring his full impact.

Patterson has been on the field for 46 percent of the Falcons’ offensive snaps, according to TruMedia. On those plays, the Falcons are averaging 4.01 yards per rushing attempt. Without him, they are averaging 3.23. They are averaging 8.12 yards per pass attempt with him and 5.93 yards without him. They have completed 72.1 percent of their passes while he’s playing and 62 percent with him on the sideline. Sixteen of their 22 turnovers have come when he’s been off the field.

One opposing defensive coach said his team had to prepare for twice as many offensive looks from the Falcons — about 30 total — as they would if not for Patterson.

Before the Patriots played the Falcons earlier this year, coach Bill Belichick was asked about Patterson, who was on his team in 2018.

“CP’s having a tremendous year,” he said. “I’d say no play he makes really surprises me. I’ve seen him make those before. He runs by guys on go routes. He takes short runs or passes and explosively breaks tackles or bursts through a hole and chews up 25, 30 or more yards in a hurry. He’s got excellent hands — big hands. … He’s a really good football player, and he and Pitts have given the Falcons a lot of offensive production. And they’ve also created, I’d say, a lot of opportunities for other players because you’re so focused on them.”

But even Belichick decided he could do without Patterson after a year.

Patterson is on his fifth team. He is working with his eighth offensive coordinator. This is his ninth season. He is 30 years old.

He never was a significant offensive factor until now.

Something was missing in his NFL career. It’s not missing anymore.

– –

In 2018, Cordarrelle Patterson was a journeyman.

He believed he still could be something else, and he wasn’t alone. In New England, Patterson hired a chef and started taking care of his body better than before. Where other coaches saw Patterson’s limitations, McDaniels saw possibilities. McDaniels put him in the backfield, often in an I-formation, and used him on outside zone runs.

That year, Zimmer expressed regret for not using Patterson more like the Patriots did.

“Honestly, since I’ve been watching him on tape, I’m going to put that in the back of my mind if we ever get a guy like this again … that we can use him in much better ways,” he said at the time.

Most of Patterson’s production with the Patriots came over a four-game span in the middle of the season, but it was a window into the future.

“The early showcase of what I can do,” Patterson said. “The offensive coordinator over there is an awesome guy. I got to see him a couple weeks ago. I was telling him, ‘You were the first one who got it going.’”

When Patterson became a free agent after one year with the Patriots, Bears coach Matt Nagy pushed to sign Patterson, and after the Bears did, the coach said he was “like a kid in a candy store” with him. He didn’t eat much candy in their first year together, however, giving Patterson only 28 scrimmage touches.

In 2019, Cordarrelle Patterson was a special-teams player.

Dave Ragone had been the Bears’ quarterbacks coach in 2019 but was given a new job after the season, passing-game coordinator. That meant he didn’t have a group of players to work with anymore. And Patterson didn’t have a position. Nagy wanted to teach him how to be a running back, but he couldn’t be expected to learn the basics in a room with players who had been working at the position for most of their lives. Nagy made the decision to make Patterson a special project for Ragone. They met and worked together daily one-on-one.

Nagy and Ragone cracked the code by determining that Patterson could handle more than just a limited number of plays if he had more coaching. When the Bears wanted to use Patterson on specific plays, they gave him two or three practice reps during the week and made sure he understood the details.

Patterson had 64 carries in 2019, the most in his career up to that point. After the season, he was a free agent. Ragone was the new Falcons offensive coordinator, and he pushed for the Falcons to pursue Patterson.

Ragone’s history with Patterson went back to 2013. At the time, Ragone was the quarterbacks coach for the Titans, and he was assigned to watch University of Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray work out. When Bray threw to his teammates, Patterson’s size and speed made Ragone’s eyes wide.

“You left the field thinking wherever he gets taken, he’s an NFL player,” Ragone said. “There was no, ‘I wonder if he’s going to make it.’ It was how he was going to make it.”

When Ragone joined the Bears in 2016, he lobbied for general manager Ryan Pace to sign Patterson. The Bears brought Patterson to Lake Forest for a visit. Ragone spent time with him, but Patterson chose the Raiders. Ragone lobbied for him again two years later and finally got his man.

In 2021, Cordarrelle Patterson was an afterthought free agent.

The Bears were in a cap squeeze after using $17.8 million of space on a franchise tag for wide receiver Allen Robinson and thought they could get a cheaper replacement. Patterson, chronically undervalued, did not find a robust market. The Panthers liked him a bit. Joe Judge, who had coached special teams in New England when Patterson was there, led a restrained bid from the Giants.

By this time, Ragone knew Patterson well and led the charge for the Falcons to sign him.

“I really enjoyed the person and know how he affects the locker room,” Ragone said. “It was a big deal for us especially trying to start something here in Atlanta with a new organization.”

Patterson signed a one-year, $3 million deal with Atlanta in part because of his comfort with Ragone.

“Being with Rags, I love him,” Patterson said. “I talked to him in the offseason about coming to Atlanta. It was a no-brainer.”

Ragone and Smith were the first to see Patterson as more than an offensive condiment. By making him a mainstay of their offense, they forced defenses to identify him as a running back or receiver and then make adjustments based on motions and shifts. And to deal with a wild card, defenses had to have special schemes that weren’t a part of their standard packages.

According to Pro Football Focus, Patterson has played 249 snaps as a halfback, 91 as an outside receiver, 47 as a slot receiver, five as a tight end and three as a fullback. He also has taken one snap as a quarterback — he threw an incompletion — and two snaps at free safety.

He is every position; he is no position.

“He sees the game through the eyes of a true football player, not just paint by numbers of what the playbook says,” Ragone said. “He’s got a feel. And to me, he’s best when he can see the full picture, everybody’s responsibility and how he fits in. That’s what makes him such a great kick returner. He sees the pieces unfold in front of him and he hits it. It’s the same way he looks at offense.”

Vision. That’s what this is about — the abundance of it and the lack of it.

Not being like any other player is what held Patterson back. Until it set him free.

Patterson’s progression can be measured in degrees of imagination.

With legs fresher than they have a right to be, Patterson said he wants to play another 10 years. And why not?

In 2022 and beyond, Cordarrelle Patterson can be whatever imagination allows.

NEW ORLEANS

GM Mickey Loomis says the NFL refused to cut any slack for the Saints prior to Monday night’s game with the Dolphins, despite precedent with other games.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Saints, playing with a roster that was severely depleted by a COVID-19 outbreak, were not even competitive in Monday night’s 20-3 loss to the Dolphins. But Saints General Manager Mickey Loomis said the NFL never considered delaying the game, as it has for other teams experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.

Loomis said on WWL Radio that he hasn’t seen a team have to scramble to put a roster together like the Saints did since NFL teams used replacement players during the 1987 NFL players’ strike, and he considered it unfair.

 “If we had seven or eight or 10 COVID positives, we can handle that,” Loomis said. “When you have 18 active players and four of your practice squad players test positive for COVID, it’s just too much to overcome, frankly. It wasn’t fair to the players. It wasn’t fair to our coaching staff, and certainly not the fans.”

Loomis said the NFL made it clear to the Saints that they were playing on Monday night no matter how many players tested positive for COVID-19, and that the league office wouldn’t even consider the same kind of postponement that was granted a week earlier to the Browns, Rams and Washington Football Team.

“I don’t know what the reasoning is in New York. Those decisions aet made at the league level. But we were told pretty early on that the game wasn’t going to be postponed and just had to deal with it. That was their solution: Play the game no matter what,” Loomis said. “We don’t have to like it, but we have to live with it.”

If you postpone Sunday games, you can cover the programming.  When the game is scheduled for Monday, that’s a huge hole to fill.  And sliding it back to Tuesday or Wednesday would have been a punishment on the Dolphins.

NFC WEST

SEATTLE

LB BOBBY WAGNER still makes a bunch of tackles, but his future on Puget Sound is unclear.  Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times:

Bobby Wagner spent the first half of his NFL career standing in the middle of one of the greatest defenses in league history, directing traffic and helping hold it all together.

He’s spent the last half watching all the pieces of the famed Legion of Boom slowly drift away.

Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett following the 2017 season.

Earl Thomas in 2018.

And then following the 2020 season, K.J. Wright, the player closest to Wagner on the field all those years, manning the other inside linebacker spot, and maybe the closest off it, as well.

That’s left Wagner, in his 10th year in the NFL, standing out figuratively — if not physically — all alone, if still in the middle of everything.

And as his first year without any of his old LOB teammates comes to a close, Wagner can’t help but wonder if he might be the next to go.

A 5-10 season, he knows, leaves little guarantee about anything in the NFL.

There is also the reality of his contract. He has one year left on a three-year deal he negotiated himself in 2019 worth a total of $54 million. The contract has no guaranteed money in 2022 while carrying a $20.3 million cap hit. If Wagner were released, the Seahawks would save $16.6 million in cap space.

And then there’s the presence of a potential heir apparent in Jordyn Brooks, the team’s first-round pick in 2020, who could slide from his current weakside linebacker spot to the middle.

All of which means Wagner knows there’s a chance that Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions could be the last he plays for the Seahawks at Lumen Field.

“You think about it,” Wagner said Wednesday. “You think about what the next year looks like, and just, period, what the future holds because this was a season that I don’t think we all planned for. We didn’t plan for the season to go this way. And so obviously there’s going to be some changes. And whether or not I’m part of those changes, I don’t know. But all I can control is these last two games. And you know, figure it out from there, whatever the team thinks is the best thing to do moving forward. We’ll see how that plays out.”

Wagner, though, does know what the long-term future holds — a spot in the team’s Ring of Honor someday, almost certainly a bust in Canton in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and maybe having his number retired along with Steve Largent, Walter Jones, Cortez Kennedy and Kenny Easley.

He also knows at least some of what the short-term future holds — more football — even if he isn’t sure where.

Wagner, who turned 31 in July, made that clear Wednesday, saying he plans to keep playing even if it’s not with the Seahawks.

“I don’t see myself stopping playing,” he said. “I feel like I’ve got a lot of room to grow as a player, to grow as a leader. I feel like there’s a lot of new technology that’s going to let me play a little bit longer, so I’m excited to dive into that stuff and we’ll see how it works out.”

And what’s indisputable is Wagner’s impact on the Seahawks as probably the second-most pivotal player during the team’s greatest run of success other than quarterback Russell Wilson.

Both arrived in the famed draft class of 2012, Wagner with the 47th pick, Wilson at 75.

And via Pro Football Reference’s career approximate value rating, they are the top two players in that draft, and also the two players who have provided the most value to the Seahawks of any the team has drafted in its history dating to 1976.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

QB LAMAR JACKSON has sent conflicting signals about his possible return this week (but the good news is that back-up QB TYLER HUNTLEY is off the COVID list).  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson may have hit a snag in his return from an ankle injury.

According to multiple reporters, Jackson was not present for the portion of Baltimore’s practice open to media. Jackson was a limited participant in Wednesday’s session, though video of the practice showed Jackson visibly limping while moving from one drill  to the next.

Jackson has not played since injuring his ankle during the first half of Baltimore’s loss to Cleveland in Week 14. Tyler Huntley, who came off the COVID-19 list on Thursday and returned to practice, started the club’s Week 15 loss to Green Bay. Josh Johnson started last week’s loss to Cincinnati.

Huntley would be in line to start Sunday’s game against the Rams if Jackson is unable to play.

Baltimore’s full injury report will be released later on Thursday.

The Ravens have lost four games in a row to fall to 8-7 and the AFC’s No. 8 seed.

Are you really an 8^th “seed” if your placing puts you outside of the playoffs.  We might have thought that seeding only applied to teams within the tournament or competition, not outside.

PITTSBURGH

More signs that the end is near for QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER.  Tyler Sullivan ofESPN.com:

Ben Roethlisberger may have tipped his hand on his NFL future. On Thursday, the Steelers quarterback gave his first public acknowledgment that he may be walking away from the game of football by electing to retire following the 2021 season. Roethlisberger said that Monday’s matchup against the Cleveland Browns could very well be his final game at Heinz Field.

“I don’t ever speak in definites or guarantees. That’s just not what I’ve ever done or who I am,” said Roethlisberger. “But looking at the bigger picture, I would say that all signs are pointing that this could be it.”

The Steelers are set to finish out the regular season on the road in Baltimore in Week 18. If they were to find themselves in the playoffs with a late-season rally, they would do so likely as the final wild-card entry, which would mean they’d be on the road throughout their postseason run. So, if Roethlisberger were to call it a career at the end of this season, Monday night’s game against the Browns would likely be the final time the Pittsburgh faithful would get see their quarterback, who led them to two Super Bowl titles over his 18-year career, in his home stadium. 

Roethlisberger went on to note that the emotions of this possibly being the end of the road for him in Pittsburgh have started to kick in, but also said that he’d be able to put those on the back burner and focus on the task at hand, which is the Browns.

Rumors that this could be Roethlisberger’s final season have been around for quite some time. Last offseason, he restructured his contract to remain with the Steelers for one more season, but is not contractually linked to the organization beyond 2021. 

“I’ve always been one that has fulfilled my obligation to the team with contracts,” Roethlisberger said Thursday. “I don’t have a contract next season, so I guess the writing was on the wall from [the front office], but kind of all of us together. I wouldn’t say that I have my mind made up by any means, but I have my mind made up that this season I was going to give it everything I have to try and win a Super Bowl.”

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

Giants S LOGAN RYAN has trashed the citizens of Nashville and environs.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Giants safety Logan Ryan is attempting to walk back comments he made on Wednesday about the fans in Tennessee, where he played for three seasons.

Ryan said that he is fine with Giants fans booing the team because he knows from his time with the Titans that an angry fan base is better than an apathetic fan base.

 “I understand [the Giants] have a great fan base, a ton of tradition here. It’s a privilege to play [in New York],” Ryan said, via the Nashville Tennessean. “I played in a franchise in Tennessee where the fan base was non-existent. You couldn’t even get fans to the games. You had to put tickets half-off to get fans to the games.”

Those comments were understandably not well received in Tennessee, so today Ryan attempted to smooth things over.

“Meant NO disrespect to Titans fans. We won a lot of games and saved a lot of animals together. You guys have always been great to me,” Ryan wrote on Twitter, noting that his Ryan Animal Rescue Foundation was launched in Tennessee. “Nothing but love for y’all. Good luck in the playoffs. I’ll be at home watching,” Ryan wrote.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Jeff Howe of The Athletic is hearing that teams are warming again to the idea of Josh McDaniels as head coach – despite his two previous debacles.

Dante Scarnecchia, perhaps the most respected offensive line coach in NFL history, was persuaded out of his two-year retirement to rejoin the New England Patriots in 2016, and his presence was a key component to the organization’s fourth Super Bowl victory.

He never would have been there if it hadn’t been for one factor.

“I would have never gone back into coaching after my first two years of being retired if Josh (McDaniels) wasn’t the coordinator,” Scarnecchia said. “I just feel that strong about the guy.”

McDaniels has once again positioned himself as a head-coaching candidate during the upcoming hiring cycle. This time, McDaniels’ work with rookie quarterback Mac Jones should distinguish his resume from the competition.

But McDaniels must again distance himself from a pair of blemishes on his record, at least in the eyes of those with organizational hiring power. He failed spectacularly as the Denver Broncos head coach from 2009-10, and he spurned the Indianapolis Colts at the 11th hour in 2018.

As Scarnecchia pointed out and other NFL executives echoed in interviews with The Athletic, McDaniels’ credentials — for better and worse — shouldn’t be measured in a vacuum. The context is important on each end of that spectrum, and the totality of his performance should lead to one conclusion.

“I think he’s a head coach,” a general manager said. “I think he’s learned from his experience. He’s been humbled. When he got his first job, what was he, 32? If you ask him, he was probably trying to be (Bill) Belichick at the time, trying to be a hard ass, all the things he thought you were supposed to be, instead of just being himself. I think he’s matured. I think he’s a brilliant offensive mind.

“He did burn some coaches with the Indy deal. But when you really know the dynamics of why he went back to New England, you can somewhat understand from his viewpoint. I think he’d be an excellent head coach. I think you have to talk to him, and he’ll do a really good job this time through.”

The quarterback whisperer

McDaniels has proven his ability to run a chameleonic offense since returning to the Patriots in 2012. It was initially evident in 2016 when they had to prepare quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to open the season as the starter during Tom Brady’s suspension, as McDaniels split their reps throughout training camp and Garoppolo was on fire to open the regular season.

When Garoppolo injured his shoulder in the second quarter of his second start, McDaniels turned to rookie Jacoby Brissett, who hadn’t taken a single practice rep with the starters by that point. To complicate matters, the Patriots’ third game was on a Thursday, so McDaniels installed an entirely different system to feature Brissett’s running ability without a live practice. The Patriots beat the Texans that week, 27-0.

McDaniels replicated that effort on a larger scale in 2020 when the Patriots transitioned from Brady to Cam Newton. And no, the Patriots were not an offensive power that season — due to Newton’s performance and a lack of talent around him — but McDaniels implemented an option-style system to maximize Newton’s chances in an otherwise lost year.

“With Cam, there were more designed quarterback runs, powers, RPOs, quarterback draws, no doubt,” Scarnecchia said. “Cam’s presence inside the red zone and in particular the low red zone, as a run threat, is a pretty dynamic guy. They certainly used him a lot in there, so they had to tweak it for him.”

Newton’s inefficiencies as a passer were evident, but his 12 rushing touchdowns were his most since 2011.

“(McDaniels) knows exactly what his quarterback is, and he tailors the offense to that quarterback,” the general manager said. “He doesn’t ask him to do anything he can’t do. He’s relatable. He knows how to talk to these guys, how to teach these guys. If you put him in front of a room of 53 players, he can talk to them as well. He’s got enough knowledge and presence. I think he’d be an excellent (head) coach.”

Everyone polled by The Athletic marveled at the importance of this example. Coaches universally promote their willingness to adapt their systems. Few, like McDaniels, actually follow through. The film doesn’t lie.

“If you ask all the coaches, they’d say they’ve adapted to their quarterbacks when in fact I don’t know that they really have,” a general manager said. “I think Josh can really do that. He doesn’t just say it. He actually tailors that offense to that quarterback, and he knows how to call plays for him on top of that.”

An executive added, “Every team has these meetings in the offseason and says, ‘These are our players. How are we going to play?’ But when it’s nut-cutting time, and time to call a crucial play or crucial series, most coordinators go back to their roots. They go back to what they’re comfortable with and not really what is best suited for the players and the offense at that time.”

The tipping point for McDaniels, really, should be his work with Jones. The Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate decisively beat out Newton for the starting job with a no-doubter performance in training camp and the preseason. Jones has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 3,313 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and he’s outshined Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields, who were all selected ahead of the No. 15 pick.

Despite shaky performances in back-to-back losses to the Colts and Bills, Jones’ overall body of work should yield plenty of optimism that the Patriots have a long-term answer at the position. Jones has been prepared, decisive and accurate for a team with lofty playoff expectations.

So often, Jones has made it look easy when it should frankly be the opposite. Quality coaching is a non-negotiable piece of that equation.

“You can see the offense is functioning. I think they’ve done a great job of bringing this kid along,” Scarnecchia said. “Watch the sideline every time this kid is coming off. What do you see? They don’t look at the iPad. They look at the still pictures, and they go over every play. They go over what he’s going to call on the next series. It’s hard to find Mac Jones sitting on the bench with an iPad flipping through things and no one sitting next to him. You can’t find that. You can’t. Turn on the TV and take a look at a lot of (other quarterbacks), and you see it all the time.

“Those young guys need a lot of attention. They need to think they’re getting all the help we can possibly give you, and clearly, that’s what’s happening with this kid and the way Josh is coaching him. It’s the same thing he did with Tom. He went through every play. He still has time to call over an assistant coach and say, ‘we’re thinking about doing this, give me some ideas.’ He’s really great at it, his ability to tweak things in games and go to other things. If things aren’t working, you have to be able to go to something else.”

The Jaguars and Raiders have already fired their head coaches, so they can begin interviewing candidates this week, which means McDaniels’ name could surface in the near future. There has been an annual average of 6.9 coaching vacancies over the past 10 years, so more openings are likely coming in January. The Seahawks, Bears, Vikings and Broncos are among the list of teams with coaches on shaky ground.

As it relates to McDaniels’ work with Jones, the Jaguars (Lawrence) and Bears (Fields) should strongly consider the offensive-minded coach to lead their most recent draft investment. The Seahawks may have no choice but to hire an offensively driven coach to appease Russell Wilson. The Raiders (Derek Carr) and Vikings (Kirk Cousins) have well-paid quarterbacks whose stock has fluctuated this season. The Broncos, for obvious reasons, won’t be calling McDaniels.

Conversely, McDaniels must also be drawn to the organization. For example, the Jaguars have the most hyped quarterback prospect in a decade, but they haven’t proven that they’re capable of consistently contending for a Super Bowl under owner Shad Khan.

The Bears and Seahawks might be more attractive destinations. But just because McDaniels has a strong resume, it doesn’t mean he’s the only qualified candidate.

Teams will also be skeptical of his past.

Lessons learned along the way

McDaniels was one of the hottest coaching candidates in the NFL when the Broncos hired him as a 32-year-old in 2009. He joined the Patriots as a personnel assistant in 2001, and the offense made a seamless transition when he took over for Charlie Weis in 2005.

The Broncos opened McDaniels’ tenure with six consecutive wins, including an overtime victory against the Patriots, and the hire looked like a slam dunk.

Then it went off the rails. They finished 8-8 and became the second team since 1990 to miss the playoffs after starting 6-0. After McDaniels was forced to trade quarterback Jay Cutler in 2009, another feud with wide receiver Brandon Marshall led to his trade in 2010. McDaniels also used a first-round pick on quarterback Tim Tebow in 2010.

The Broncos were 3-9 in his second season, which included a videotaping scandal, and McDaniels was fired. He was criticized for having a brash personality while trying to replicate Belichick’s style, and he fell flat.

McDaniels has since noted numerous times that he learned from that experience; that he grew as a coach, leader and person; that he became more aware of the ways a head coach must operate.

“I can’t imagine a more qualified or more deserving assistant coach in this league than Josh,” Scarnecchia said. “The guy’s record speaks for itself, pre-Denver and post-Denver. And you have to take into consideration Denver as well. He is a pleasure to be around, a pleasure to work with, very respectful. He commands the room, but he does it in such a way where there’s no ego. You just get stuff done, and it’s easy and painless. When you watch him in front of the offense, he just commands the room. He can answer any question. He’s to the point. He’s deliberate. He is respectful of the players. The players respect him tremendously. I just think the guy is really, really good.”

An executive added, “Josh was super young when he got his head-coaching job. I always think you’re more prepared for the big job the second time around because you learn from all the mistakes. His overall maturity (has improved) in football and in life. When you get thrown into one of those jobs at a young age, you get a lot of stuff coming at you. They threw personnel powers on top of him. That’s a lot to handle. I think he’d take all of those things into account. He’d be way better equipped right now to be successful.”

McDaniels, now 45, is 11 years removed from the Denver debacle. It should be accordingly viewed as a small part of his portfolio.

But he made another decision nearly four years ago that damaged his reputation as a coaching candidate. The Colts announced the hiring of McDaniels, but he backed out of the job on the same day.

He angered the three assistant coaches who joined the Colts staff on McDaniels’ accord. His agent, Bob LaMonte, quit working for him.

McDaniels stayed with the Patriots for two key reasons. First, owner Robert Kraft made him the highest-paid assistant coach in the NFL with a salary worth about $4 million per year. Second, McDaniels’ family had developed strong roots in New England. Perhaps somewhere else on the list, McDaniels could be well-positioned to take over for Belichick, though that’s still more speculation than anything else.

McDaniels deserved the heat that he took for backing out in Indy. But this far removed, is it unfair to continue holding it over him?

“I think that’s coming from some owners who have an opinion of him, maybe some coaches who got burned by him,” a general manager said. “It’s probably somewhat deserved, but it’s been built up a lot more than probably what it should be.”

At least five teams have requested to interview McDaniels over the past three hiring cycles. He was on the shortlist with the Eagles last year, according to sources. So a good portion of the league has moved on from the Colts situation.

“I don’t think it’s a big thing anymore,” an executive said. “It’s never going to be a non-issue for a team that is interviewing him. You’ve got to get that cleared up before you even bring him in for an interview. Of course, the answer is going to be, ‘If the situation is right and he gets the offer, he’s going to take it.’ That’s what agents do. I would not hold that against him if I were an owner, GM or president. I think that’s water under the bridge. It happened. It was kind of a messed-up situation at the time, but it’s over.”

There’s one more stigma McDaniels must shake. Seven assistants have left Belichick’s Patriots to take over as a head coach in the NFL, and they’ve got a combined record of 154-249-1 (.382 winning percentage). Six, including McDaniels, have losing records. They’ve got a 2-5 mark in the playoffs, with five never reaching the postseason.

McDaniels fell into that trap the first time with the Broncos, but should he be accountable for the sins of others? Or his own shortcomings from more than a decade ago? Or even his decision to burn the Colts?

It’s all part of it, of course. So, too, is McDaniels’ ability to aid Jones’ sterling rookie season.

There’s context behind it all. McDaniels’ reputation around the NFL has clearly been on the upswing, but it’ll be up to those in charge of the hiring processes to determine whether he’s the right head coach for their job.

“I think he’s been around it enough,” a general manager said. “He knows who he is as a coach. He’s not going to try to be Belichick this time. He’s smart enough. He’s secure enough in who he is as a coach that I think he’s the one guy who could break away (from Belichick and succeed). And he’s done a really good job of developing quarterbacks, which is the whole key behind this.”

THIS AND THAT

BILL BARNWELL’S 50-MAN ROSTER

For the big game against Mars, Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com puts together the ultimate 2021 NFL roster:

Let’s run through my picks for the All-Pro team for the 2021 NFL season. We still have two weeks of football left, but in most cases, the players I’ve put on my first and second teams have done enough already to earn their spot. There are some positions where there might be several players within a tier of talent, and in those spots, it’s possible that someone could emerge with what they do over the last two weeks of the season. I’ll mention them at the relevant positions.

While I’ve certainly used numbers to break down these battles, I’m also using what I’ve seen on film and what I’ve learned from talking to people in and around the NFL as the season has gone along. When two players are tied or close to tied, I’m almost always going to lean toward the one who has been on the field more often; availability is an ability, and as talented as some superstar players are, missing a quarter of the season places a cap on how valuable they can be in a given year. I’ve been more flexible with players who have missed a game here or there in a season heavily impacted by COVID-19.

I’ll name a first- and second-team player at each position. Since this is my ballot, I’ve customized the positions to my liking, so I’ll pick one running back, two wide receivers and one hybrid player on offense, as well as two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers and three cornerbacks on defense. Let’s start at quarterback, which is one of the few positions that might actually be undecided with two weeks left to go:

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Second team: Tom Brady, Buccaneers

I’ll devote an entire column over the next week or two to talking about the MVP race, and since that will focus closely on the quarterbacks, I won’t go too far into depth here. I’ll say that this is a very strange season for quarterbacks; Rodgers leads the league with a 67.8 Total QBR, and while that’s certainly a good season, it’s way below what we would usually expect from the top of the league. Over the prior decade, the average QBR for the No. 1 passer each season was 79.9. In 2019, a 67.8 QBR would have left Rodgers as the ninth-best by that metric.

I’m not saying this to denigrate Rodgers or suggest that quarterbacks have some major problem this season, but just to say that this has been a weird season. And while I don’t think the league’s voters are going to necessarily be using QBR to make their choices, there are four passers — Rodgers, Brady, Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford — within four points of each other at the top of that chart. There is no clear standout, and the last two weeks of the season could mean quite a bit in determining the final All-Pro pick here.

Running back

Jonathan Taylor, Colts

Second team: Nick Chubb, Browns

One of the three easiest picks on the ballot, Taylor emerged from the wreckage atop fantasy drafts as the league’s best running back. He has virtually lapped the field in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE), with his 448 around 200 yards ahead of anybody else. Taylor has run for 16 more first downs than the No. 2 back, scored an NFL-high 17 rushing touchdowns and contributes in all facets of the offense, as we saw on his spectacular pass block against the Patriots in primetime a couple of weeks ago.

The only back who has really been in his league as a runner is Chubb, who has 228 RYOE and will finish 2021 with the third-best rushing average in league history for a back over his first four seasons; he’s at 5.3 career yards per carry now.

Hybrid weapon

Deebo Samuel, 49ers

Second team: Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons

In lieu of a fullback or a second running back, I’m using one of the league’s fun positional trends in 2021 and carving out a role for Samuel as the league’s preeminent wide receiver/running back. He has been lights-out with the ball in his hands, averaging a league-best 17.8 yards per reception and 6.8 yards per rush attempt. What has been really impressive is seeing him basically play both roles over the course of the season; he began the season as a full-time wide receiver and then transitioned into a role as San Francisco’s primary running back for stretches in November and December as the team dealt with injuries.

Patterson has been used more as a runner than receiver — he has 140 carries and 49 catches — but he has been Atlanta’s top back and top wideout at times this season.

Wide receivers

Cooper Kupp, Rams

Davante Adams, Packers

Second team: Justin Jefferson, Vikings; Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

Kupp was No. 2 on the list of gimmes, behind Taylor. Nobody is going to touch Jerry Rice’s 22-touchdowns-in-12-games season of 1987, but what Kupp has done in his first season with Matthew Stafford has been surreal. Unlocking defenses at all three levels, Kupp is way ahead of the field in receptions (132), receiving yards (1,734) and receiving touchdowns (14). He would be only the fourth player since the merger to win the receiving triple crown, and with two games to go, there’s a realistic chance of him becoming the first wide receiver in league history to top 2,000 yards. He’s having a season for the ages.

The tough decision here was picking between Adams and Jefferson for the second spot. I wouldn’t fault anyone for picking Jefferson, who is 89 yards ahead of Adams, in part because the Packers star missed a game. Jefferson averages more yards per target, but Adams generates more yards per route run and has done more with the ball in his hands. Adams’ targets go for a first down about 3 percentage points more frequently than Jefferson, who admittedly plays with Kirk Cousins as opposed to Rodgers. The margin is razor thin here, and I could change my mind over the final two weeks of the year. Hill is a clear No. 4 in this race, with Stefon Diggs trailing behind.

Tight end

Mark Andrews, Ravens

Second team: Travis Kelce, Chiefs

I wasn’t enthused about picking a tight end when I first started thinking about this ballot a few weeks ago. Kelce is still a difference-maker, but the future Hall of Famer hasn’t been as productive as he was during his dominant 2020 campaign. Rob Gronkowski and George Kittle have been the league’s best tight ends on a snap-by-snap basis given their incredible blocking prowess, but both have missed significant time to the extent that it’s difficult to pick either.

Enter Andrews, who solved the tight end riddle. Over the past three games, he has a league-leading 376 receiving yards despite playing with three different starting quarterbacks. No receiver has generated more first downs over that span than Andrews, who ranks fourth in the NFL among all pass-catchers in that category. With his snap count up to 74% in the Baltimore offense, Andrews is playing more — and delivering more — than he ever has.

Left tackle

Trent Williams, 49ers

Second team: Rashawn Slater, Chargers

Williams is the third and final no-questions-asked pick on the offensive side of the ball. Ask someone who watches offensive line play closely how Williams is doing this season and you might need to help them clean the drool off their faces. In his second full season with the 49ers, the 33-year-old Williams has been a shutdown tackle for a team with a quarterback who needs all the help he can get. According to Stats LLC, Williams hasn’t allowed a single sack all season. ESPN’s tracking data agrees.

There’s plenty of competition behind Williams with Andrew Whitworth, Kolton Miller and Jedrick Wills Jr. in the discussion, but I opted for the rookie Slater, who has immediately locked down a position the Chargers have struggled to fill for years.

Left guard

Joel Bitonio, Browns

Second team: Quenton Nelson, Colts

Nelson is the league’s best guard, but it’s so tough to sneak him onto this list given how much time he has missed. He has only played 65.5% of Indianapolis’s snaps after spending time on injured reserve and hitting the reserve/COVID-19 list a week ago.

The ever-present Bitonio might not be as spectacular as Nelson or fellow Browns guard Wyatt Teller, but part of his value comes from availability, as the 30-year-old hasn’t missed a snap since 2016. Bitonio’s physical traits and reliability showed up earlier this season, when the Browns employed him as an emergency left tackle because of COVID absences in their game against the Raiders.

Center

Jason Kelce, Eagles

Second team: Ryan Jensen, Bucs

This position might be considered similar to tight end, where the most impactful player could be Cardinals center Rodney Hudson, who has missed five games with injuries. Kyler Murray’s QBR is 18 points better with Hudson on the field. Chiefs rookie Creed Humphrey was also in consideration here, but I opted for two stalwarts who continue to play spectacular football.

Kelce remains spectacularly gifted for a center in his mid-30s, playing a critical role pulling and getting outside the tackles for one of the most demanding rushing attacks in football. He has also been essential in helping to set protections for second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts. Kelce has missed a few snaps with injuries, and Jensen remains one of the league’s best antagonists protecting Tom Brady, but I gave Kelce the nod for degree of difficulty.

Right guard

Zack Martin, Cowboys

Second team: Chris Lindstrom, Falcons

No new superlatives are needed for Martin, who continues to be arguably the league’s best two-way interior lineman. After missing Week 1 because of a positive COVID-19 test, he has been on the field for virtually every meaningful Cowboys snap this season. Their offensive line hasn’t been quite as good creating running lanes as it has in years past, but Martin’s skills as a pass-blocker only play up more in Dallas’ new offensive style. Stats LLC credits him with just a half-sack allowed.

Lindstrom doesn’t get much attention, but having not allowed a single sack or taken a single holding call all season, he narrowly beat out the also-deserving Teller for the second-team spot.

Right tackle

Tristan Wirfs, Bucs

Second team: Brian O’Neill, Vikings

This was the most difficult position because so many candidates don’t really qualify. Ryan Ramczyk has been out since Week 10. Jack Conklin only played four full games and suffered a season-ending injury. La’el Collins was suspended and didn’t get his job back immediately. Lane Johnson missed three games while he took care of his mental health. Braden Smith was out for six games. If there was a college-style preseason shortlist for the All-Pro team, all those guys would have been on it.

As it turns out, this ended up as a three-man race between the two guys above and the Rams’ Rob Havenstein. I went for Wirfs and O’Neill, who have both played every snap for their respective teams this season, ahead of Havenstein, who has missed two games. Statistically, there might be a slightly better case for O’Neill, who hasn’t allowed a sack, while Wirfs has allowed one and might be at least partially at fault for a second. By ESPN’s measures, though, O’Neill has allowed more pressures leading to incompletions than his Bucs counterpart. They’re both very good run blockers, so the difference between the two might amount to a coin flip.

DEFENSE

Edge defenders

Myles Garrett, Browns

T.J. Watt, Steelers

Second team: Trey Hendrickson, Bengals; Nick Bosa, 49ers

Oh boy. The top two here are clear, but the second team was a nightmare to choose. Let’s begin with the starters. Garrett has slowed down a bit while being hampered by a groin injury, but he leads the league in ESPN’s sacks created metric (16.0) and pass rush win rate as an edge defender (25.8%). What he did to the Bears should not have been shown on national television. If the Browns win out and make it to the postseason, Garrett’s touchdown against the Ravens just before halftime in what ended up as a 24-22 victory might end up as one of their most important plays of the year.

Watt has missed two games and been a part-time player in four others this season, and while that should matter when you’re being compared with guys who haven’t missed time, he has been productive enough on limited snaps to win those battles anyway. Watt’s 17.5 sacks and 31 quarterback knockdowns lead all players. He has also thrown in four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, four pass deflections and five tackles for loss against the run for good measure.

After those two? It’s a mess. There are close to a dozen candidates. Both Bosa brothers. Hendrickson. Matthew Judon in New England. Harold Landry III has broken out for the Titans, just as Maxx Crosby’s gotten going for the Raiders. Brian Burns and Haason Reddick form the most underrated edge duo in the league. Chandler Jones is still a game-changer. Robert Quinn is having a phenomenal year. Shaq Barrett is the picture of consistency, although he may miss the rest of the season with a sprained ACL and MCL.

Hendrickson was the first guy out of the bunch for me, because he has helped transform the Bengals on defense. I was skeptical he would make an impact after leaving the Saints and I was absolutely wrong. Nobody — not even Garrett or Watt — has been more consistently impactful than Hendrickson, who has at least one sack in 12 different games. Just three players in league history have topped that mark, and he will get a chance to tie the NFL record of 14 as the Bengals try to close out a division title.

After that, honestly, pick your favorite. Nick Bosa ranks fourth in sacks and second in knockdowns, and he leads the league with 19 tackles for loss. He’s dominating on a team where nobody else has more than five sacks or 10 knockdowns and the secondary is hanging on for dear life every week. He also might not even be the best member of his own family at the position. It’s close to impossible to choose here.

Defensive tackles

Aaron Donald, Rams

DeForest Buckner, Colts

Second team: Jonathan Allen, Washington; Jeffery Simmons, Titans

This one wasn’t much easier. There’s one obvious choice in Donald, as while he might not be getting the same sort of headlines or exhibiting the same sort of highlight reel we’ve seen in years past, trust me when I say that the future Hall of Famer is still the NFL’s most disruptive player. Donald’s 27.7% pass rush win rate on the interior is the best by more than 9 percentage points. To put the gap in context, the difference between Donald and second-placed Javon Hargrave is bigger than the gap between Hargrave and Jarran Reed in 21st. And yes, in case you were wondering, Donald is above average by run stop win rate as well.

Donald is in a tier by himself, and there’s a handful of guys below him in the second tier. Hargrave is in there, and while he’s a different sort of player, so is Vita Vea. Chris Jones has been a massive difference-maker for the Chiefs since being moved back inside on a permanent basis earlier this season. I could keep naming players. The margins here are so thin.

I’ll start with Buckner because of the impact he has beyond sacks. He has been double-teamed on 67.7% of his interior rushes this season, which ranks third behind Donald and Patriots rookie Christian Barmore. (I would say a higher percentage of the Barmore double-teams are created on purpose by Bill Belichick’s pass rush concepts than the doubles on Donald or Buckner.) Buckner has still been able to generate 6.5 sacks and 16 knockdowns, but more significantly, ESPN has credited him as creating 29 incompletions as a pass-rusher, which is one behind Donald for the league lead among tackles.

After fighting with teammate Daron Payne during Sunday’s blowout loss to the Cowboys, I can’t say that Allen is flying underneath the radar. What I can say is that he’s getting attention for the wrong reasons; he has 8.5 sacks and ranks fifth in the league with 27 knockdowns. Simmons made one of the most important plays of the season in blowing up Josh Allen’s fourth-and-1 sneak to seal a win over the Bills, and he has contributed 7.5 sacks, 14 knockdowns and six pass breakups while living in opposing backfields. Simmons also ranks 12th among tackles in run stop win rate.

Linebackers

Micah Parsons, Cowboys

Darius Leonard, Colts

Second team: Matt Milano, Bills; Demario Davis, Saints

Parsons might also qualify at edge rusher, but given the backlog there, I’m getting the rookie sensation on the roster at his natural position as an off-ball linebacker. Myles Garrett has the best pass rush win rate as an edge rusher, but if we include rushes on the interior, nobody has been more successful as a pass-rusher on a per-play basis than Parsons. Not Garrett, nor Donald. No, he’s not Lawrence Taylor, but the only player since Taylor who was a credible Defensive Player of the Year nominee as a rookie was Jevon Kearse in 1999.

After Parsons, we’re again dealing with a wide range of talents. I have to go with Leonard, who seems to be in on every big play the Colts make, with three picks and six forced fumbles this season. Milano is a stalwart on what might be the league’s best defense in Buffalo, and Davis is the heart and soul of the league’s top run defense.

Honorary mention goes to Green Bay’s De’Vondre Campbell, who is right alongside Patterson as one of the best free-agent signings of the offseason in terms of surplus value.

Cornerbacks

Trevon Diggs, Cowboys

J.C. Jackson, Patriots

A.J. Terrell, Falcons

Second team: Jalen Ramsey, Rams; Marshon Lattimore, Saints; Kenny Moore, Colts

Last season, after Xavien Howard picked off 10 passes in an era in which interceptions are at an all-time low, I noted that no defensive back in the history of football had a greater share of the interceptions around the league in a single season than the Dolphins star. Well, his record lasted one season. Howard was at 2.5%, but Diggs has intercepted 2.8% of opposing passes this season. He has allowed four touchdowns as the nearest defender in coverage, but 11 picks means Diggs has generated 28 expected points added (EPA) for the Cowboys when passers have thrown in his direction.

On the other side of the coin, there’s Terrell, who is the best player in football virtually nobody talks about on a week-to-week basis. He has intercepted only two passes, but just 28.6% of the throws in Terrell’s direction have resulted in a positive play for the offense, which is the league’s best mark. Quarterbacks have posted a minus-16.9% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on throws toward Terrell, which also ranks No. 1. Terrell typically plays one side of the field, so corners who move around the formation might offer more than him, but he has locked down half the field for a defense with no pass rush.

Jackson is somewhere between those two extremes. The Patriots played more zone than in years past during their seven-game winning streak, but when they’ve been in man coverage, they’ve been more comfortable letting Jackson take the other team’s top receiver now that Stephon Gilmore is in Carolina. Jackson, a 2018 undrafted free agent, is tied for the league lead alongside Diggs with 21 pass breakups.

There were four players here for three spots, with Ramsey as the one I had to narrowly leave out. There’s nothing wrong with him, but teams have targeted him slightly more frequently this season without paying for their sin. Quarterbacks throwing toward Ramsey have posted a minus-3.5% CPOE in 2021, which is more impressive for them in context with Ramsey’s minus-9.4% CPOE in 2020.

Lattimore has broken up 19 passes despite teams targeting rookie Paulson Adebo, while Moore is the league’s best slot corner.

Safeties

Jordan Poyer, Bills

Budda Baker, Cardinals

Second team: Adrian Phillips, Patriots; Kevin Byard, Titans

Poyer has been an eraser in the secondary. When teams have been brave enough to throw in his direction, the result has been a downright depressing passer rating of 3.6. He has five picks and nine passes defensed while allowing 3.1 yards per target and continuing to contribute as a run defender. The Bills rank second in the league in defensive DVOA, and with cornerback Tre’Davious White out for the season, Poyer’s partnership with Micah Hyde has kept the team afloat on that side of the ball.

I wasn’t a huge fan of the four-year, $59 million extension the Cardinals handed Baker before the 2020 season, but he has lived up to the deal. With Arizona sporting one of the league’s worst cornerback depth charts on paper, Baker’s ability to fly around the field and cover up holes in coverage has been a huge reason why it has been able to post the league’s fifth-best scoring defense.

Byard is a much more complete player now than when he made the All-Pro team in 2017, while Phillips has gone from being a special-teamer to a complete safety and Patrick Chung clone for the Patriots.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker

Justin Tucker, Ravens

Second team: Chris Boswell, Steelers

There are times in which a dominant player at a position wins Pro Bowl and All-Pro berths just by default. Tucker is not one of those players. He has generated 15.9 points of value for his team on scoring plays; the only other kicker above 10 points is the Rams’ Matt Gay. Tucker’s 66-yard winner against the Lions is keeping a free-falling Ravens team in the playoff race with two games to go.

I give Boswell, third in value on scoring plays, the nod over Gay by virtue of playing in a more difficult kicking environment.

Punter

AJ Cole, Raiders

Second team: Bryan Anger, Cowboys

Cole has been atop the per-punt leaderboard at Puntalytics, which adjusts for field position and expected return length, virtually all season.

Anger, who was cut by the Texans this offseason and signed a one-year deal for $1 million with Dallas, has been the focal point of a punting unit that has generated more points of field position than any other.

Returner

Kene Nwangwu, Vikings

Second team: Braxton Berrios, Jets

Nwangwu has fielded 13 kickoffs and returned two of them for touchdowns; the only other player to do that since 2013 is Patterson, who is the best kick returner of his generation. Percy Harvin, Devin Hester and Steve Smith also pulled it off in their rookie seasons before the league changed its kickoff rules. It’s a good sign that Nwangwu is going to be a valuable returner for a long time.

Berrios was already having an excellent season before he took a kickoff 102 yards to the house for what ended up as a game-deciding score against the Jaguars last week.