CHICAGO

What is going on with the Bears?  CEO Kevin Warren is effusive in his praise of incumbent QB JUSTIN FIELDS.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

One of the biggest questions of the 2024 offseason centers on Chicago, where the Bears have both a fourth-year player who could become a franchise quarterback and dibs on drafting any potential franchise quarterback they want in April.

Some think the Bears should trade Justin Fields and draft Caleb Williams. Others, including Bears receiver D.J. Moore (the video of our interview with him is attached), believe the Bears should keep Fields, trade the pick, and get more help around Fields and Moore and the other talented players on the team.

The Bears have not tipped their hand. Which only adds to the drama and the debate.

In a new interview with WGN News, Bears president/CEO Kevin Warren praised Fields.

“I’m a supporter of Justin because I got a chance to work with him when I was Commissioner of the Big Ten conference,” Warren said, via Ryan Taylor of NBC Sports Chicago. “He is incredibly talented. He is smart. He works hard. And he wants to be a great NFL football player. And now he just needs to make sure he has the support around him. He’s working hard. I would love to see him this offseason and make sure he’s totally healthy going into the season next year.”

That sounds a lot like an endorsement of Fields, along with a plan to keep him around.

“Justin has a rare combination of intelligence, of size, of strength and speed,” Warren added. “You forget how big of a man he is until you’re up on him. He’s not a small man. I just think every year he’s going to continually get better. . . . I’m glad he’s [Fields] on the Chicago Bears.”

Some will interpret Warren’s words as an effort to increase Fields’s trade value. Others will take Warren’s words at face value, reflecting a commitment to let him keep reaching his ceiling.

Regardless, until the start of the new league year comes and goes, it won’t be clear what the Bears plan to do. Even then, the final strategy won’t be fully revealed until they use, or trade, the first overall pick in the 2024 draft.

SAN FRANCISCO

Steve Wilkes is out as DC in San Francisco despite good defensive rankings in his only year on the job.  Tim Kawakami of The Athletic offers an explanation that involves “fit”:

A year ago, Kyle Shanahan gave Steve Wilks a great opportunity that was also mostly unfair to him at the very same time. Both things. Built upon each other.

A great job because it was difficult enough that anyone who succeeded would be heralded as a great defensive mind and possibly delivered a head-coaching job at the next convenient moment. Difficult because it was loaded with great players, great resources, great responsibility and the greatest expectations.

Which is why it’s logical to say that Shanahan’s decision to fire Wilks as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator on Wednesday was two partially contradictory things at the same time — an extremely awkward moment of very public Super Bowl-loss scapegoating and also the logical conclusion of a failed year-long experiment.

It could’ve worked, if Wilks developed more chemistry with Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and the rest of the defense in the short time he had, but he didn’t. Wilks, who came up as a defensive secondary coach, was a bit more reserved and much more focused on the defensive backfield than they’re used to. And it became clearer every week that the 49ers’ top defensive players just didn’t fully believe in their DC.

It could’ve worked if Shanahan was willing to adjust some more, but he wasn’t. It could’ve worked if the 49ers’ defense was a little more focused and a lot less confused during the playoffs. But those distracted moments kept piling up through the Green Bay and Detroit games and then all the way into the last minutes against the Chiefs, when Shanahan at one point called timeout to get the 49ers out of a defensive call he hated and then another when linebacker Oren Burks pinballed around the formation, looking anxiously toward the sideline, before a critical third-down snap trying to figure out where he was supposed to line up. Patrick Mahomes quickly completed a pass for a first down on that play, of course.

And then, in his postgame session, Bosa flatly said that the defense was not prepared well enough to defend Mahomes running the ball on two back-breaking plays. Once Bosa said this, it was pretty clear that Wilks’ status was in serious jeopardy. Three days later, he was out of a job.

But I don’t know if anybody outside of the 49ers’ defensive hive mind could’ve avoided a firing at this point. I do know that Wilks, who wasn’t part of the 49ers’ culture when he was hired and never could find a way to merge with it, is now without a job. It’s a bad look to fire somebody with such a good reputation in the days after a failed Super Bowl. But if you believe Shanahan’s explanation on Wednesday, and I do, it’s not a scapegoating as much as an admission that Shanahan and John Lynch made a mistake when they hired Wilks in the first place.

It wasn’t his fault as much as it was theirs.

The 49ers simply have a very specific way of running their defense, which was initiated by Robert Saleh in his three DC years before moving on to the Jets’ top job and was elevated by DeMeco Ryans, previously the linebackers coach under Saleh, in his two DC years before he got his own top job in Houston.

The 49ers needed more of that. It was up to them to realize that Wilks wasn’t going to give it to them, and they realized it too late. But there’s context: The 49ers didn’t have a strong in-house candidate to replace Ryans last year and they couldn’t land Vic Fangio, who ended up with the Dolphins (and is now with the Eagles).

Shanahan and Lynch logically wanted to keep the same Seahawks-style Cover 3 scheme that fits their roster so well, but they also wanted an authoritative figure. Wilks had the authority, but no experience in the Seattle system. So the 49ers’ brass just hoped he’d pick up on the scheme. But it never happened. Wilks was always the outsider looking in.

“Yes, that was the hardest part,” Shanahan said on a hastily convened conference call Wednesday. “I knew that was the challenge. It was tough. But it’s real tough losing DeMeco. It was tough losing Saleh (two years) before. But we’ve committed not just to this system but the players that have been in our system, from our D-line, our linebackers. Played in it for such a long time. It was my goal not to have to change all of them. And bringing in Steve, who was unbelievable in how loyal he was and him trying to do it.

“But it just ended up not being the right fit. It hurt for me to do this, but that’s exactly what I had to.”

So what happens now? Shanahan said he’d take a look at both internal and external candidates, and it’s always tricky to figure out which coaches from other teams are interested or available at this late date in the hiring cycle. But I think there are a few things we can conclude from this entire experience:

• The 49ers’ defensive stalwarts are all in their front seven. Their DC should come with a background either on the defensive line or the linebacking unit. Wilks coached the linebackers and defensive linemen, but he just never seemed part of them.

“I don’t think that’s just solely because of his background with DBs,” Shanahan said. “I just think it has to do with the way we play linebacker and stuff like that. The way that Fred and Dre (Greenlaw) have done it here over the years and the way we’ve coached it. I mean, there’s no one way to do things. But you want to tie things together. And Steve was always working to do that, there’s no doubt about that. But it was just, for his background and how it ended up with us, it was harder than it needed to be. And felt it would improve if we’d go in a different direction.”

• Shanahan said he just wants the best DC possible and wouldn’t preclude looking for someone outside of the Seahawks’ defensive system, but it’s likely that the next DC will come from that coaching tree or will at least be closer to it than Wilks was.

• I don’t think highly regarded defensive line coach Kris Kocurek will be a live candidate. He’s extremely valuable (and well compensated) where he is and hasn’t ever seemed like a guy who is desperate to be a DC.

Defensive backs coach Daniel Bullocks is an up-and-comer, but his secondary background might be a barrier this time around.

Defensive passing game specialist Nick Sorensen is an interesting name, but his background before joining the 49ers in 2022 is mainly in special teams.

• Though I think jumping up and down on the sideline is more of a TV bit than actual coaching, the 49ers’ players like energy from their DC. Saleh and Ryans provided it. Wilks did not. (Shanahan doesn’t either, by the way. But offensive coaches rarely are sideline attention-getters. They’ve got to be calling or thinking about the next play.) I think Shanahan will be looking for a positive-vibes guy with this hire.

That the 49ers had to ask Wilks to move down from the booth and get in personal contact with his players on the sidelines at midseason was a giant red flag, even after it worked.

• It doesn’t seem likely that the 49ers will chase after one of the very famous former head coaches with defensive backgrounds — Mike Vrabel, Brandon Staley, Ron Rivera or even Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll. That would set up even more of an Outsider dynamic, since those guys have done it their way for so long and, in Belichick and Carroll’s cases, haven’t been anything but head coaches for decades.

Saleh wasn’t a big name when he took over the 49ers’ defense, but he was a perfect fit alongside Shanahan and had known Shanahan for years. Ryans was a fairly inexperienced coach when he moved up to replace Saleh, but he was wholly part of the 49ers’ culture and just a natural leader and play caller. I don’t know if the perfect candidate is out there, but I don’t think it has to be a big name. It just has to be somebody who fits the culture and feels like an insider almost right away.

This from Dontay Atkinson:

@DonAtkinsonNFL

Wilks is a really good coach. He will find a landing spot, as he always does. Just a philosophical and scheme mismatch with Kyle from the getgo. This was a necessary move.

Steve Wilks didn’t get let go because he’s a bad coach. He didn’t get let go because of the Super Bowl. He didn’t get let go because he’s black. He didn’t get let go because he screwed up.

He was let go because the front half of the defense wasn’t in synch with the back half. And it was like that frequently this season. This roster is too elite for that to continue.

Sometimes chemistry is just wrong. It’s not a judgment on Wilks. He’s an outstanding football mind. It just didn’t gel with this program.

KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs victory parade was marred by a tragic mass shooting – with suspects in custody, but the cause still a mystery.  ESPN:

One person is dead, and 21 others were wounded by gunfire in a mass shooting at the end of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl parade Wednesday, according to authorities.

Three people have been detained and are under investigation, Kansas City Police Chief Stacey Graves said during a news conference Wednesday evening.

Of the people wounded by gunfire, eight were in immediately life-threatening condition, seven were in life-threatening condition and six had minor injuries, Kansas City Fire Chief Ross Grundyson said at the news conference.

“I’m angry at what happened today,” Graves said. “The people who came to this celebration should expect a safe environment.”

Kansas City radio station KKFI said one of its DJs, Lisa Lopez-Galvan, who was the host of “Taste of Tejano,” died in the shooting. It was not immediately clear whether her death was the one announced by authorities.

“This senseless act has taken a beautiful person from her family and this KC Community,” the station said in a statement.

Lopez-Galvan, whose DJ name was “Lisa G,” was an extrovert and devoted mother of two from a prominent Latino family in the area, said Rosa Izurieta and Martha Ramirez, two childhood friends who worked with her at a staffing company. Izurieta said Lopez-Galvan had attended the parade with her husband and adult son, a Kansas City sports fan who also was shot.

Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas said all the Chiefs players, coaches and staff were safe and accounted for, which was later confirmed by the team in a statement.

“We are truly saddened by the senseless act of violence that occurred outside Union Station at the conclusion of today’s parade and rally,” the team said in the statement. “Our hearts go out to the victims, their families and all of Kansas City.”

Stephanie Meyer, chief nursing officer for Children’s Mercy Kansas City, said it was treating 12 patients from the rally, including 11 children between the ages of 6 and 15. The hospital told KMBC-TV that nine of the children had gunshot wounds. Meyer said all were expected to recover.

When asked about the condition of the children, Meyer responded: “Fear. The one word I would use to describe what we saw and how they came to us was fear.”

University Health spokeswoman Nancy Lewis said the hospital was treating eight gunshot victims. Two were in critical condition and six were in stable condition, she said. The hospital also was treating four people for other injuries resulting from the chaos after the shooting, Lewis said.

St. Luke’s Hospital of Kansas City received one gunshot patient in critical condition and three walk-ins with injuries that were not life-threatening, spokesperson Laurel Gifford said.

University of Kansas Health System received at least one person injured in the shooting.

The NFL said in a statement, “We are deeply saddened by the senseless shooting that occurred today near the end of the rally in Kansas City for the Chiefs. Our thoughts are with the victims and everyone affected. We are grateful for the quick and thorough response of law enforcement and emergency personnel.”

Social media users posted shocking video. One user’s video showed someone apparently performing chest compressions on a shooting victim as another person, seemingly writhing in pain, lay on the ground nearby. People screamed in the background. Another video showed two onlookers chase down and tackle someone, holding that person down until two police officers arrived.

Graves said police were working to determine whether one of the three people who have been detained was the person tackled in the video. Police did not immediately release any details about the people who were detained or about a possible motive for the shootings. Graves said firearms had been recovered, but not what kind of weapons were used.

“This is absolutely a tragedy, the likes of which we never would have expected in Kansas City, the likes of which we’ll remember for some time,” Lucas said.

Joe Sciara, a 59-year-old Kansas City native who was at the parade with his family, told ESPN’s Paula Lavigne that the shooting started “immediately after the last speech” at the rally.

“I saw people running in every direction. … From where I was standing, my initial thought, the sound was such a rapid popping sound, it sounded more to me like firecrackers than a gun,” Sciara said. “So, I wasn’t initially panicked but because everybody started running, we had no choice but to start running. When I looked back, I kept looking for the shooter because I wanted to make sure we weren’t running toward the shooter. I couldn’t see a shooter. I saw people down, several people down, but I couldn’t tell if they were shot or if they were trampled. The mass of people was hard to describe.”

Multiple Chiefs players took to social media to express their concern for the victims after the shooting.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes posted on X, “Praying for Kansas City…,” also including three emojis of hands in prayer.

Tight end Travis Kelce posted as well, writing: “I am heartbroken over the tragedy that took place today. My heart is with all who came out to celebrate with us and have been affected. KC, you mean the world to me.”

Part of the reason there are suspects to question is the quick action of bystanders.  This about Paul Contreras.  Jake Anderson of KETV.com in Omaha:

One person is dead, and at least 21 others hurt in a mass shooting near the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl victory parade.

A Bellevue man helped tackle one of the alleged shooters and police have three people in custody.

Shots were reported in the minutes after the rally portion of the celebration ended.

Parade attendee, Alyssa Marsh-Contreras captured video of her father, Paul Contreras, tackling an alleged shooter before police got to him.

Paul said he and his three daughters thought they heard fireworks but it turned out to be gunfire.

That’s when Paul saw a man running another man chasing him and yelling for someone to stop him.

“I didn’t hesitate,” Paul said.

He said he saw a gun fall out of the alleged shooter’s hand, as he and another bystander tackled him.

“The whole time he’s fighting to get up and run away,” Paul said. “We’re fighting each other, you know. We’re fighting to keep him down and he’s fighting to get up.”

Paul said it only took seconds for police to step in but it felt like forever.

Marsh-Contreras and her father are both reportedly safe and back home in Bellevue.

She said it’s sad to see a celebration turn into a tragedy.

This content is imported from Twitter. You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.

“We went for a once in a lifetime experience, you know, and to leave with, you know, another once in a lifetime experience but not a good one,” she said.

– – –

Jay Busbee of YahooSports.com says that QB PATRICK MAHOMES is playing the role of the NFL’s Lebron James to Tom Brady as Michael Jordan.  Makes sense:

Patrick Mahomes didn’t just cement himself as the best quarterback of his generation, and one of the best of all time, with his third Super Bowl win Sunday night. He provided us all with sports bar and sports talk radio/podcast debate for the rest of the 2020s.

The NFL now has its own version of the endless, unsolvable Jordan-vs.-LeBron debate: Who’s better, Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady? Form your opinion now, change it as needed.

You probably already have an answer in mind, and that’s fine. We’re still early in the discussion, and that’s the point … we’ve got a long way to go here. But here’s why Mahomes-vs.-Brady has become a debate worthy of GOAT status.

There must be rings, multiple rings. These are the nonnegotiable table stakes. All due respect to the Charles Barkleys, Dan Marinos, Hakeem Olajuwons and Peyton Mannings of the world, but until you get to at least three rings, you’re not part of this conversation. Both Mahomes and Brady, obviously, have hit that mark.

There must be proximity … Jordan retired for good just a few months before James debuted, back in 2003. That was close enough that every NBA fan had plenty of memories of Jordan — and common opponents — to size up James.

Up until the mid-2010s, Brady’s chief historical competition was Joe Montana, the four-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback. But Montana won his last Super Bowl before Brady was out of middle school. Bill Russell was an 11-time NBA champion, but many of those came before Jordan was even born. The farther back legends fade in history, the less they remain part of the conversation.

Mahomes and Brady, of course, have a pitch-perfect crossover: Super Bowl LV, where Brady’s Buccaneers trounced Mahomes’ Chiefs. Mahomes was coming off a Super Bowl win and was the NFL’s heir apparent; Brady reminded him who the top dog still was.

… but not too much proximity. Jordan and James never took the court against one another in an NBA game. But they both played against Kobe Bryant, among others, and the fact that both were able to face down Bryant — Jordan with athleticism and titles, James with the sheer weight of consistent excellence — keeps Bryant out of the NBA GOAT conversation. Sometimes familiarity works against your resume.

The Brady-Peyton Manning debate was always a fascinating one because it was always patently obvious that Manning was a more physically gifted quarterback than Brady … but Brady had the benefit of the entire Bill Belichick Industrial Complex, plus a few lucky breaks along the way. In a debate like this, empirical data works against the spirit of give-and-take. Put another way: seven is more than two, every time.

Mahomes, by contrast, has no real rivals, not right now. There are only three starting quarterbacks — Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson — who have even one ring. (Joe Flacco too, depending on where you slot him.) Mahomes has three. That’s game, set, match to Mahomes until the late 2020s, at least.

There must be struggle. Jordan was the most electrifying player in the league from the moment he first stepped on the court, but it took him seven seasons to become Michael Jordan, Worldbeater. James dragged a collection of Cleveland ragamuffins to the Finals in 2007, his fourth year in the league, but wouldn’t actually win a title for another five years.

It’s tough to remember now, but the Patriots went 10 years almost to the day between winning rings, from their third (over the Eagles in 2005) to their fourth (over the Seahawks in 2015). Brady stacked both the front and back of his career with rings, but there were some fallow years in the middle.

Mahomes obviously hasn’t yet gone through any dry stretches yet — in his worst years as a starter, the Chiefs reached overtime of the AFC championship — but they could be coming. Andy Reid could retire. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce could break up. Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen could catch fire. The future’s not guaranteed, no matter how bright it looks now.

There must be debate. Here’s where it gets fun. The Jordan-LeBron debate often hinges on titles. Jordan has six championships, zero Finals losses. James has four championships but 10 Finals appearances, including eight straight from 2011 to 2018. Which streak is more impressive? Depends on whether you value victory or longevity.

Again, there are echoes here. Mahomes’ first six years of his career as a starter — six conference championship games, four Super Bowl appearances, three Lombardis — are better than any six consecutive years of Brady’s career, the same way Jordan’s six titles in six full years on the court are better than any six-year stretch of LeBron’s. But LeBron’s longevity and time atop the mountain eclipses Jordan, just as Brady’s 23-year career obviously gets the nod over Mahomes … for now.

What does Mahomes need to do to pass Brady? That’ll depend on who’s doing the judging, but he’ll need a few more rings and a few more Super Bowl appearances, at least. Brady resolved the Montana debate in the most effective way possible: by burying Joe Cool in titles. Mahomes could well do the same, but it’ll take him — at a minimum — most of the rest of the decade to get there.

So. Mahomes or Brady. Who you got? Let the debate begin.

– – –

Steve Spagnuolo is getting a lot of deserved praise for his recent work with the Chiefs, but the DB can remember when he lost several jobs.

And the Chiefs let him get to the cusp of free agency before re-signing him in the wake of the SB58 win.

Liz Roscher of YahooSports.com:

The Kansas City Chiefs fans have more to celebrate on Wednesday besides another Super Bowl victory.

As fans were lining the streets and the players and staff were prepping for the parade, the Chiefs announced that they’ve signed defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, one of the architects of their third Super Bowl win in five years, to a contract extension.

The Chiefs did not release any details on length or compensation.

Spags has been with the Chiefs for five seasons, the longest he’s stayed at a single coaching position since he was with Connecticut in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He’s spent his career moving from defense to defense, mostly in 1-3 year chunks. His stop with the New York Giants in the late 2000s resulted in a career-making Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots, which in turn gave him his only shot as head coach when the St. Louis Rams hired him from 2009 to 2011.

His stint with the Rams could have gone better. They went a league-worst 1-15 in 2009 and tied for league-worst in 2011 with a 2-14 record, with a 7-9 record in 2010 sandwiched between. With only 10 wins over three years, it wasn’t surprising that the Rams fired him early in 2012. He then spent time with the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens, and returned to the Giants before the Chiefs hired him in 2019. Five years and three Super Bowl wins later, he’s on top of the world.

The Chiefs’ brilliant defensive performance against the San Francisco 49ers was only a few days ago, but over that time, everyone from fans to players to a Rams executive has either endorsed Spags getting another chance to be head coach, or wondered why he hasn’t gotten more head coach interviews.

And given Spags’ success in Kansas City, it’s a worthy question. But it’s also possible he’s in the middle of doing an interview right now — a long, long interview that’s also known as being the defensive coordinator for the Chiefs. Because Andy Reid won’t be head coach forever; at some point he will move into retirement. And when that happens, they could turn to Spags. He’s a former head coach who has established relationships with the players and organization. It would be a no-brainer for the Chiefs to treat him as the head coach-in-waiting and elevate him when the time is right, making the transition from the past to the future as easy as possible.

But that’s the far future. The only future the Chiefs are concerned with right now is the parade on Wednesday afternoon, and soon after that, the 2024 season. And with Spags back, the Chiefs will continue to spook NFL offenses, maybe all the way back to another Super Bowl.

THIS AND THAT

HEADED DOWN

Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com identifies five teams he feels will decline in 2024.

One of the enjoyable aspects of the NFL season is seeing which teams rise towards the top of the league and which ones falter over the course of the year. For all the teams that took a step up in 2023 (Houston Texans), there were teams that took a step back after competing the year before (Minnesota Vikings).

Thanks to the parity of the league, there are always teams that fall from playoff contention to not competing for the playoffs at all. Other teams go from average to one of the worst teams in the league (Carolina Panthers). Which teams are going to fall from contention in 2024? Are there any other teams primed for a significant fall?

Before free agency and the draft hits, here’s a look at five teams who could be poised to take a step backwards this season. Of course, offseason moves can change all this, but this is going off 2023 results and an offseason outlook.

Cleveland Browns (11-6)

The Browns were one of the surprises of the NFL last season, staring five different quarterbacks and still making the playoffs with an 11-6 record. Joe Flacco won NFL Comeback Player of the Year after going 4-1 in his five starts, emerging from the couch in late November to take a team that many left for dead to the postseason when he became the starting quarterback.

Cleveland will be getting Deshaun Watson back in 2024 — and his $230 million guaranteed contract. Watson wasn’t exactly lighting it up before he was lost for the season with a shoulder injury, and he hasn’t been the same quarterback since signing with Cleveland. He’ll be leading a Browns offense that needs a better No. 2 option to pair with Amari Cooper and the uncertainty of Nick Chubb when he returns from his knee injury.

The Browns also had the No. 1 defense in points allowed per possession, but there will be changes to that group. Cleveland also has to clear up $19.6 million in cap space. It also plays in the AFC North, the division where every team was over .500 last season.

This all comes down to Watson, who needs to be the quarterback the Browns paid for. If Watson is mediocre, the Browns will be, too.

New Orleans Saints (9-8)

The Saints were over .500 last season, yet were a disappointment as they were expected to roll through the NFC South with Derek Carr at quarterback and a favorable schedule at their disposal. Carr didn’t live up to the hefty contract in year one, even if the Saints finished 11th in points per possession. Missing the playoffs was also a major disappointment.

The Saints typically have a chance in the poor NFC South, but are stuck in cap hell for another offseason. New Orleans has to shed $83.7 million in salary cap space and doesn’t exactly have a lot of players it can move on from and save cap space since general manager Mickey Loomis kept restructuring deals and pushing dead money to future offseasons. Sure the Saints can make a lot of designated post-June 1 cuts, but how does that make the roster better?

New Orleans can still win the NFC South in 2024, but is the ceiling 9-8 with Dennis Allen as head coach? The Saints don’t have a great front office structure, nor a good head coach in place to get the most out of a group that should be better than the record shows.

If 9-8 is the ceiling, the Saints could be in for a significant downfall in 2024. Being in the NFC South definitely pushes back the eventual downfall, though.

Denver Broncos (8-9)

The Broncos are more than likely going to move on from Russell Wilson this offseason, leaving the franchise eating $35.4 million if it designates Wilson as a post-June 1 cut (and pushing back significant dead cap). Denver is still $21.4 million over the salary cap, so changes are coming to a bloated roster that failed to get over .500 in the Wilson era.

The offense was 21st in points per possession and the defense was 28th in points allowed per possession. Cuts may be coming in addition to Wilson (if the Broncos can’t trade him), as Tim Patrick, Garett Bolles and D.J. Jones carry high cap hits.

Then there’s the matter of the AFC West. The Las Vegas Raiders play hard for Antonio Pierce even with their roster limitations, while the Los Angeles Chargers are expected to be better under Jim Harbaugh. Oh, and the Kansas City Chiefs have won consecutive Super Bowls — and have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

The Broncos may be sitting in the cellar of the AFC West in 2024 as the franchise enters the first stage of a rebuild.

Minnesota Vikings (7-10)

The Vikings were primed to take a fall from their 13-4 record in 2022, and they did, experiencing a six-game drop off in 2023. Minnesota has excellent pass-catching talent with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but T.J. Hockenson may be out for the majority of 2024 recovering from ACL and MCL surgery.

Then there’s Kirk Cousins, who is a free agent and the glue to this whole season. Do the Vikings want to pay more than $40 million to a 35-year-old quarterback who has won one playoff game in his six seasons with the team? Or is it time to move on and find the next franchise quarterback in the draft?

At least the Vikings have Brian Flores to lead the defense, as they improved from 27th in points allowed per possession in 2022 to 18th in 2023. Without Cousins in an NFC North with the Detroit Lions, along with the rising Green Bay Packers and improving Chicago Bears, this year could be a rough one for the Vikings.

New York Giants (6-11)

There are some teams that really weren’t as good as their record indicated — and one of them was the Giants. Even though New York finished 4-3 in its last seven games, was there any reason to feel optimistic about the team at the conclusion of the season?

Saquon Barkley, the best player on an offense that finished 29th in points per possession and 30th in yards per possession, is a free agent. Daniel Jones was horrendous last season, and the Giants are on the hook for a $47.105 million cap hit in 2024 for a quarterback who may not even start the year (ACL injury). Even if Jones plays, he’ll be playing behind an offensive line that’s perpetually poor (allowed 85 sacks last season).

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale also left, as the Giants will have to learn a new scheme under Shane Bowen. Fortunately there’s talent on that group, even if they were 20th in points allowed per possession last season. The Giants were a bad football team last season, and may be worse in 2024.

2024 DRAFT

We don’t recall Field Yates of ESPN.com as a Mock Drafter – but he has one today:

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The Bears’ draft intentions will be much clearer once a decision is made on quarterback Justin Fields, as Chicago will surely be fielding calls to gauge the potential parameters of a trade for the 2021 first-rounder. If the Bears do opt to trade their current QB and reset the clock at the position, Williams fills their immediate need and presents an electric combination of accuracy and playmaking for new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

2. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Daniels did as much as one could possibly do during the 2023 season to boost his draft stock, as he skyrocketed up boards on the heels of 40 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions and 1,230 rushing yards (not including sacks) on his way to the Heisman Trophy. He’s the best dual-threat quarterback in this class and changes the math for a defense every time he steps on the field. In Washington, Daniels would have an exciting wide receiver unit and could help build stability under center for new coach Dan Quinn.

3. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

The 6-foot-4, 230-pound quarterback is still 21 years old and has the prototypical build for an NFL passer. Maye is a strike-thrower when targeting the middle of the field, but he also shows nifty pocket agility to extend plays and has 16 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. As the Patriots embark on a new era under Jerod Mayo, they could build the new offense around Maye. New England finished last season 30th in yards per attempt (6.1) and 31st in Total QBR (31.6).

4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Few pick projections are as straightforward as this one, as the receiver-needy Cardinals could land my top-ranked wideout in this class and one of the most highly regarded wideout prospects of the past handful of years. Arizona needs a WR from the start, but things are only magnified by Marquise Brown being a free agent. Harrison is a silky smooth 6-4 205-pounder who would make life much easier on quarterback Kyler Murray the second he arrives at the team facility. His prototypical size is paired with excellent route running and body control.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

A compelling March is ahead for the Chargers, with important decisions to make on receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams; they each enter the final year of their respective deals in 2024 and had injury issues last season. But this pick is reflective of what I believe the roster will look like under new GM Joe Hortiz and coach Jim Harbaugh: full of tough, physical, relentless players like Alt, who masterfully turned into an outstanding left tackle at Notre Dame. I’d expect Alt to start his career with the Chargers at right tackle, taking over for Trey Pipkins III and forming a potential dominant duo with left tackle Rashawn Slater.

6. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Giants can land the most explosive player in the draft with Nabers, the former LSU star who plays at a warp speed that no defender can match. This would provide a huge boost to a Giants offense that had the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and just 44 passing plays of 20-plus yards (better than just six other teams in the league).

Nabers is a massive play waiting to happen, with his vertical speed to stretch the field on deep shots and with his run-after-catch ability. He averaged 120.7 yards per game last season and caught 14 TDs. Daniel Jones needs that kind of production outside.

7. Tennessee Titans

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

The Titans have a clear and obvious need at wide receiver, and if the board plays out like this come April 25, I’d be floored if they pass on Odunze. The wideout hardly has a flaw in his game. He’s a pristine route runner, incredible after the catch, terrific in contested catch situations and Mr. Reliable with his hands. Quarterback Will Levis would love this pick, as Odunze led the country in receiving last season (1,640 yards).

8. Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

The Falcons’ pass rush improved in 2023 but still lacked a dominant pass-rusher, with Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree leading the team with only 6.5 sacks apiece; neither is signed for 2024. Atlanta managed just 42 sacks as a team in 2023, ranking 21st.

Turner finished his college career with 10 sacks and was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. New coach Raheem Morris worked wonders with an inexperienced Rams defense in 2023, but the personnel is in better shape in Atlanta right now, and Turner would provide a high-upside, versatile building block off the edge.

9. Chicago Bears

Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

The Bears — who got a QB with their first pick here in Williams — made a big splash in acquiring Montez Sweat at the deadline this past season, landing a legitimate defense-altering player. However, depth beyond Sweat still needs to be addressed, and Latu is perhaps the most talented pass-rusher in this entire class. While Latu might not have Turner’s traits, he has a vast catalogue of pass-rush moves and impeccable technique. He has a chance to become an annual double-digit sack player after getting 23.5 over the past two seasons.

Latu did have a neck issue during his tenure at Washington that forced him to medically retire from football in 2019. He wound up transferring to UCLA and resuming his career, but each team will have its own assessment of that issue, and combine medicals will be important here. If the issue is not seen as a short- or long-term concern, Latu deserves to be in this range.

10. New York Jets

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

The Jets will be on a mission all offseason to upgrade the offensive line ahead of Aaron Rodgers’ return to action after a torn Achilles, with the two tackle positions in the spotlight. There is allure for the upside of a player like Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) and the toughness of Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), but Fashanu is ready to anchor the blind side right away for Rodgers and has the goods to become an outstanding pro. His tape was a little better in 2022 than 2023 from my view, but we’re still talking about one of the most impressive prospects in the class. Fashanu allowed one sack over 21 career starts.

11. Minnesota Vikings

Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

Retaining Danielle Hunter — soon to be a free agent — would change the outlook on this pick, but losing Hunter, D.J. Wonnum and/or Marcus Davenport in free agency would leave Minnesota razor thin at pass-rusher. Verse is long, has great in-line power and shows a growing set of pass-rush moves to get home. After surprising many and returning to Florida State for the 2023 season, he helped catalyze what was on the short list for the best defense in college football last season, racking up nine sacks.

12. Denver Broncos

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

My expectation is Russell Wilson will not be a Bronco in 2024, and the reality of the situation is that Denver has no easy way to get out of the contract without absorbing massive salary cap implications. Combine that with a shallow free agent quarterback class and we’re staring at the real possibility of Denver needing to draft a quarterback to be the starter (or develop Jarrett Stidham into that role).

While this slot is ahead of where McCarthy ranks on my board, this is a story as old as time: Quarterbacks almost always wind up going higher than expected in the draft. And Denver has just six total picks, the next of which comes in the third round, which limits its options. McCarthy is an accuracy merchant with very good mobility. Scouts believe he offers more as a thrower than we saw during his last season at Michigan, when the Wolverines leaned heavily on a dominant defense and run game.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

Primary needs for the Raiders also include quarterback and offensive line, but four QBs are off the board, and the overall depth of the tackle class makes finding a second-round starter viable. Murphy fills a massive gap along the defensive front after an incredible 2023 season, too. He offers true difference-making play as a pocket compressor (he had 5.0 sacks this past season) and run defender. Few players in this class play full tilt to the extent Murphy does.

14. New Orleans Saints

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Saints might need to replace two offensive tackles this offseason, as longtime stalwart Ryan Ramczyk has dealt with a knee injury that could force him into retirement and Trevor Penning has struggled since being taken in the first round just two years ago. Guyton oozes upside with excellent quickness and the potential to anchor either tackle spot for a long time. He has allowed one sack over 29 career games (15 starts).

15. Indianapolis Colts

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Indy went young at cornerback last season, and while the overall opponent passing numbers were fine, the Colts went a stretch during the middle of the season facing these starters in succession: PJ Walker, Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Jake Browning, Mitch Trubisky, Taylor Heinicke and Aidan O’Connell. They need to upgrade the cornerback spot.

Arnold is tough, instinctive and physical, and he has playmaker traits, picking off five passes in 2023.

16. Seattle Seahawks

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

It doesn’t sit right with me that Bowers (a top-10 prospect) would have to wait until No. 16 to hear his name called, but man do I love this pick for Seattle. The Seahawks have a pair of free agents at tight end in Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson, while Will Dissly carries a $10.1 million cap charge in 2024 that might need to be addressed. Bowers is a remarkable pass-catcher who chews up yards after the catch and has vacuum-like hands to snare any throw in his vicinity. Yes, defense needs to be a massive priority for Seattle all offseason, but Bowers would crush in this offense.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

Powers-Johnson was incredible for Oregon this past season and then went down to the Senior Bowl and looked like one of the best players on the field. Among the many traits that stand out about JPJ is that when he gets beat — and that doesn’t happen often — he can recover quickly enough to keep his quarterback clean. He’s the best center in the draft and addresses a big position of need in Jacksonville.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

Incumbent starter Jonah Williams will hit free agency in a month, and it’s no surprise the Bengals will continue to address the offensive line this offseason. If you want to get tougher and impose your will more in the run game — and I think the Bengals could use more explosive runs — Fuaga is the man for you. He’s a tone-setter with overwhelming strength at the point of attack and enough suddenness to react in the passing game as a strongside protector for Joe Burrow.

19. Los Angeles Rams

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Mitchell was a dominant player at Toledo, and he confirmed at the Senior Bowl what most in the scouting world had suspected: He can flat-out fly, has outstanding ball skills and is extremely disciplined in man-to-man coverage. The Rams are thin in the secondary, and veteran Ahkello Witherspoon — who played a pivotal role this past season — is scheduled to become a free agent. Mitchell could come to L.A. and immediately start breaking up passes, which he did 32 times over the past two seasons at Toledo.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

This one might be a surprise, as the Steelers have backed Kenny Pickett — whom they took at No. 20 two years ago — this offseason. But they also said they plan to add competition for him in the quarterback room. Quarterback picks in this range are often polarizing, but my fundamental mindset is the Steelers’ ceiling with Pickett under center is too low for a franchise with a standard that is not simply making the playoffs but making deep runs. Pittsburgh has lost five straight playoff games.

Nix blends sharp accuracy with some razzle-dazzle (something he has refined during his college career after transferring from Auburn) and an ability to quickly scan the field to deliver the right read. He set the FBS single-season record for completion percentage in 2023 at 77.4% while throwing 45 touchdown passes to three interceptions.

21. Miami Dolphins

Troy Fautanu, G/OT, Washington

It’s uncertain whether Miami will have Terron Armstead back in 2024 and beyond, but regardless, Fautanu is a logical target for the Dolphins. He was a dominant left tackle during his time at Washington but has positional flexibility to kick inside. Guard Robert Hunt is headed toward free agency, and Fautanu has elite footwork and plays with an unmistakable fire.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

The Eagles surrendered the second-most passing yards in the NFL last season (4,296) and undoubtedly will work to add to their secondary this offseason, likely at cornerback and safety. Darius Slay is 33 years old, and James Bradberry will be 31 by next season.

Wiggins has good speed and excellent size for the position at 6-2. He plays with a tremendous confidence and has a short memory in coverage, two essential skills for any corner.

23. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

The Texans did an incredible job of extracting everything they could out of the secondary, and adding a few more players this offseason will prove instrumental. Rakestraw is one of my favorite guys to watch in this entire class, as he seems to find just as much joy in lining up man-to-man opposite a top wide receiver as he does delivering bone-crunching hits in run defense. Pairing him with Derek Stingley Jr. could give Houston a fearsome CB duo.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M

Inside linebacker is an area to address under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer — Leighton Vander Esch is entering the final year of his deal and suffered a serious neck injury in 2023 — and Cooper is the best in this class. What makes him so unique are his exceptional movement skills and pass-rush upside. Cooper managed eight sacks last season, including three against Alabama in one of the best performances by a player all season. But Cooper also projects to have the range and instincts to be more than just a proactive linebacker making plays toward the line of scrimmage; he’ll prove he can drop in coverage and carry tight ends as well.

25. Green Bay Packers

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

There are a lot of reasons to like this pick for Green Bay. DeJean has terrific traits, is an adept man-to-man coverage player and has proved extremely versatile. The last part matters a lot here, as Green Bay’s safety room has multiple key free agents this offseason (including Darnell Savage) and DeJean has the traits to play there if needed. Cornerback depth is also a need for the Packers, who would go back to the Iowa defensive well in the first round for the second straight year (Lukas Van Ness). The Packers managed seven interceptions in 2023 (31st), and DeJean has that many himself over the past two seasons.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Graham Barton, G/C, Duke

Barton’s versatility makes him an appealing player to basically every team, as he began his college career as a center and finished it at left tackle, playing both spots at a high level. Many in the scouting world think he’ll settle into a guard role with center flexibility, and this pick would follow a Tampa Bay trend. The Bucs like to draft mobile college tackles and kick them inside, with recent examples including Cody Mauch and Robert Hainsey.

27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)

JC Latham, OT, Alabama

With 2023 first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. capable of moving over to left tackle (veteran D.J. Humphries is coming off of a late-season ACL tear), Latham could slide right into a right tackle role from Day 1. Latham has nuclear strength at the point of attack to make defenders think twice about getting in his path. This pick would set Murray up with a second franchise tackle — and don’t forget about the WR1 we got him in Harrison back at No. 4.

28. Buffalo Bills

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

No player scored more receiving touchdowns in 2023 than Thomas (17), and his deep speed and acceleration might be unparalleled in this class. The Bills have relied on Gabe Davis as a deep threat in recent seasons, but he is a free agent and has been an up-and-down contributor (nine games last season with two or fewer catches). Thomas would provide a vertical spark for Josh Allen and a Buffalo offense that did not produce a single play of 20-plus yards in its divisional round loss to Kansas City.

29. Detroit Lions

Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri

Here’s one of my favorite player-team fits, as Robinson feels like the kind of brute-force player the Lions crave on their roster. After 8.5 sacks in 2023, he would give Detroit a big boost on the edge opposite Aidan Hutchinson and could feast on favorable matchups while teams allocate resources to Hutchinson on every snap. Moreover, he’s a converted defensive tackle who can kick down inside and wreak havoc when lined up over guards or centers.

30. Baltimore Ravens

Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

The Ravens did a remarkable job defensively last season with an injury-impacted cornerback room, but counting on repeating that effort would be a challenge. Lassiter is confident in man coverage and welcomes the challenge of sticking on opposing top-flight wideouts. Baltimore has several key free agents on defense this offseason, and turnover is to be expected. Lassiter, who broke up eight passes in 2023, could help.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Allowing pressure was an issue for the 49ers in their Super Bowl defeat, and it was a reminder of the need to add depth to the offensive line this offseason. San Francisco allowed pressure on 32.2% of dropbacks last season, 11th-highest in the NFL. Mims could be a potential immediate upgrade at right tackle as well as a plan for life after Trent Williams, who will be 36 in July.

Mims might need a little time to develop with roughly 800 college career snaps to his name — the equivalent of about one season — but with a massive frame, long wingspan and unfairly effortless movement skills, he is worth investing in and developing.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

The Chiefs’ wide receiver issues are no mystery, and Mitchell would help the cause. The 6-4 196-pounder is silky smooth when running routes and has the frame and length to make his mark down the field and in the red zone. The Chiefs hit a home run with Rashee Rice in the second round last April, and this would provide them with another playmaker to build the passing game around. Mitchell caught 11 touchdowns last season, and with his 15.4 yards-per-catch average, he’d be great for Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl champs.