The Daily Briefing Thursday, February 17, 2022

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

The hiring of Matt Eberflus was orchestrated by Bill Polian and endorsed by Tony Dungy.  Adam Jahns of The Athletic:

From the back of the room, Buccaneers coach Tony Dungy watched star defensive lineman Warren Sapp argue with defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and his position coach Rod Marinelli.

The film of the Bucs’ 24-13 victory against the Vikings in Week 7 was being reviewed.

Sapp said he didn’t loaf, that he helped chase down running back Robert Smith on a 57-yard run.

But Sapp’s coaches disagreed. He loafed.

“I remember that one distinctly,” Dungy said. “Warren arguing about that and getting upset at Monte Kiffin.”

Sapp didn’t know Dungy was in the room.

“They’re getting a lot louder and boisterous,” Dungy recalled. “And I just said, ‘Warren, if Monte says it’s a loaf, it’s a loaf.’ And the whole room went silent. That kind of set that tone for everybody.”

It was a pivotal moment for Tampa Bay’s 1996 season, which was Dungy’s first in charge of the Buccaneers. The team had talent — Sapp, linebacker Derrick Brooks, safety John Lynch, running back Mike Alstott and more — but its culture needed to change. Together, Dungy, Kiffin and Marinelli created their system for grading what they saw in practices and games. Lovie Smith was Dungy’s linebackers coach.

“It was a measuring stick for trying to get energy and effort and efficiency and high energy,” Dungy said. “And the big thing on ours and that everybody worried about was the loafs because all the positives could get subtracted by one loaf, and guys used to argue about that tremendously.”

Sapp’s effort on Smith’s 57-yard scamper down the left sideline was an example. He sprinted after Smith, who eluded Lynch near the sideline.

“I ran down one of the fastest guys in America, and you gave me a loaf,” Dungy recalled Sapp saying.

But it still wasn’t good enough. Bucs cornerback Martin Mayhew forced Smith out of bounds.

Dungy remembered what Marinelli told Sapp: “Well, in my book, Warren, if I run the tape and I see you change speeds, it’s a loaf. If you slow down, that means you’re loafing. But if you speed up, that means you weren’t running hard in the first place and that’s a loaf.”

Sapp, the No. 12 pick in the 1995 NFL Draft and a future Hall of Famer, had a standard to meet.

Everyone did.

“Everybody lived to that standard,” Dungy told The Athletic. “Everybody got graded the same way. It was a high standard. And guys would come in and argue: ‘I should have gotten credit for this. I should have been in on this play. How’d you give me a loaf?’ And they were very sensitive about it. But it created a high bar, and that kept it going.”

It’s a high bar the Bears’ leadership hopes to establish.

The Bears’ simultaneous searches for their next general manager and head coach were spearheaded by adviser Bill Polian, the former Bills and Colts GM and a Hall of Fame executive. But chairman George McCaskey established two guiding principles, Polian said.

No. 1: “We were going to institute the deepest and widest search in order to not only fulfill the new mandates of the Rooney Rule, but we’d go beyond them.”

No. 2: “We wanted to get the best man. Don’t get caught up in whether it’s an offensive guy or a defensive guy or whatever theories are out there. Let’s get the best head coach we can, and let’s get the best general manager we can.”

For their next GM, the Bears used the same protocol in their interviews for the 13 candidates. A uniform approach would lead to answers.

“What we wanted to find out was exactly how (conversational) and confident they were with how to instruct a personnel department, and that included a great deal of detail on grading and grading scales and critical factors with respect to position,” Polian said. “That led to what it was designed to do, which was to lead to philosophical questions and what positions are most important, what positions are fungible, (and) that’s tied directly to salary-cap operation.”

Ryan Poles, the Bears’ GM hire, later described it as going back to “scout school.” He appreciated and enjoyed the approach. Polian described it as the “nuts and bolts” of running a personnel department.

“(Poles) was very, very confident and understood exactly what the present personnel marketplace looked like, how it would be affected by scheme, how it would be affected by the salary cap,” Polian told The Athletic in a phone interview. “He understood and knew how to operate within the parameters of all those various factors that determine how you populate your team.”

The next step — or the “outgrowth,” as Polian called it — was understanding how such philosophies led to not only cap operation or personnel selections but also the relationship with the head coach. GM candidates submitted their lists for coaching candidates to the Bears. Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus was included by Poles and others.

 “You’d be surprised; while not homogeneous, the same names cropped up time and time again,” Polian said. “So it wasn’t unanimous, but certainly there was a plurality of the same names. So we felt good about that going forward. And we certainly felt good about that with respect to Ryan when we zeroed in on the people that he wanted to talk to.

“And it was going to be his decision. George made that clear to him and everyone else. If we chose the general manager before we chose the head coach, which was our preference, then the GM was going to make the decision.”

When Bucs assistant head coach/defensive backs coach Herm Edwards left for the Jets in 2001, Dungy’s search for his replacement brought him to Mike Tomlin, the secondary coach for the University of Cincinnati at the time. Dungy said he had heard some “good things” about him.

“And because of that, I heard some good things about Alan Williams,” Dungy said.

Tomlin and Williams played together at William and Mary, and Dungy’s Bucs hired both of them. Tomlin took over Tampa Bay’s defensive backs group. Williams became a defensive assistant.

“He was a lot like Mike,” Dungy said.

When Dungy was fired by the Bucs after the 2001 season, Williams was the only assistant allowed to follow him to Indianapolis from the outstanding defense Tampa Bay had built over five seasons. Polian, then the Colts’ GM/team president, hired Dungy that year. Dungy recalled Williams’ reports as being “immaculate” when he was an assistant for the Bucs. He hired Williams as the Colts’ defensive backs coach.

“He did everything perfectly,” Dungy said. “He was just ready. He wasn’t flashy but just sound, solid and just what you’re looking for.”

Together, Dungy, Williams and defensive coordinator Ron Meeks — who had worked with Smith in St. Louis — installed the loafs-based grading system in Indianapolis. Smith left the Bucs to be the Rams’ defensive coordinator in 2001. The Bears hired him as their head coach in 2004.

The Bucs’ loafing grading system spread across the NFL.

“That’s how you win in the NFL,” Dungy said. “People will look at schemes and the offense and motions, and there’s a lot of things that come and go in the league. But you still win by not beating yourself. You win with energy and effort — and especially on defense. If you don’t hustle, if you don’t execute your technique and you don’t play all-out hard, you better have tremendous players if you’re going to win.”

Eberflus’ HITS philosophy resonated with the Bears and Polian. The loafing grading system had returned, albeit under an acronym based on hustle, intensity, taking the ball away and playing smart.

“It’s exactly the same,” Polian remembered thinking. “I was very familiar with it.”

It was similar to what the Colts had under Dungy, and the Bears implemented under Smith. The Bears were drawn back to it.

“It’s all put in place to quantify a lot of things — quantify production, No. 1, but really quantify effort,” said Dungy, whose Colts defeated Smith’s Bears in Super Bowl XLI. “That’s the thing you’re looking for is to get that extra effort. …

“If some guys were concerned about why they weren’t playing or why they didn’t get as many snaps as someone else, well, here it is. We’ve got a very objective system. If you were in X number of plays, you get X number of pluses or X number of minuses. It was not subjective. It was objective. And that’s what we wanted to get.”

All teams grade their players. But not all head coaches are the same.

“There are what Paul Brown called the eternal verities, the eternal truths about this game, and even though systems change and the game evolves, the eternal truths don’t change,” Polian said. “Hustle and speed and the ability to bring force to knock the opponent down on defense is what the game at its core is all about.

“And if you live that philosophy — if (you’re) 100 percent effort all the time and everything we do is the price of admission, not something you get a gold medal for — then you come up with a team that plays the way we played in Indianapolis and the way Lovie played in Chicago and the way Flus’ team will play in the future in Chicago.”

Williams, the Bears’ defensive coordinator, learned it from Dungy. He’s one of four defensive assistant coaches who followed Eberflus from the Colts to the Bears. Eberflus learned it from Marinelli over five seasons together in Dallas. He then expanded it with the Colts with Williams on his staff.

“Matt was the first person that kind of put it into an acronym for guys, an easy way to remember,” Williams said. “But also, he’s developed a good way to measure it. So when you talk about a standard and meeting that standard and then being able to look at the film and grade that standard, and holding guys again to the standard, the HITS philosophy is a great way of being able to measure it.

“So with the hustle, the intensity, the takeaways and playing smart, we have a way of being able to gauge ourselves from one game to another or one season to another, in terms of ‘Are we improving or are we falling short?’ So (it’s a) great way of doing that.”

When quarterback Justin Fields was discussed in interviews — whether it was with Poles and Eberflus or other candidates — the Bears maintained a collective open mind.

“It’s not what we wanted to hear; it’s what made sense,” Polian said. “We didn’t have any predisposed ideas that we wanted people to meet some standard other than excellence. And everyone agreed: We don’t know what Justin will become.

“He wasn’t ready to play when he was thrust in there this year. And any rookie who is in that situation can’t help but struggle. He got to learn what the National Football League is all about — the hard way. And now, let’s see if we can’t get him on the right path, both schematically and technically, to make him the best quarterback he can be. He’s got talent to work with, but it’s unproven and unformed at this point.”

What Polian, the author of “Super Bowl Blueprints: Hall of Famers Reveal the Keys to Football’s Greatest Dynasties,” will scoff at is the idea that it takes solely an offensive-minded head coach to achieve that in the NFL.

“Well, let me think: A guy named (Chuck) Noll was a defensive coach who worked pretty well, albeit, as Terry (Bradshaw) himself outlines in the book, with plenty of bumps in the road with the Steelers,” Polian said. “A guy named Dungy did OK with Peyton Manning, didn’t he? I rest my case. No, I won’t rest. A guy named (Don) Shula did OK with a guy named (Dan) Marino. I rest my case.”

But there’s more. A guy named Bill Belichick won plenty of games with a guy named Tom Brady, and a guy named Mike Tomlin also fared well with a guy known as Ben Roethlisberger. Guys named Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill are doing OK together, too.

How Eberflus’ HITS philosophy and loafing grading system apply to the offense, particularly Fields at quarterback, must play out.

But it can be done. Just ask Dungy.

“You get the same thing,” he said. “It’s not always hustle with the quarterback. But did you get us in the right play? First of all, did you execute the game plan? Did you carry out your fake? Did you execute the throw? Whatever the categories are, did you get a plus in that situation?

“You might have done things right, you might have executed the throw, but we had planned to go to this play if we saw this defense. So you get a plus for the great throw, but you get a minus for getting us in the wrong play.”

Standards must be established and kept — for every player. That starts with Eberflus. Dungy knows him well from Bible study groups.

“I’m excited for him,” he said. “He is carrying out the philosophy that — Lovie and I, Rod, Monte, when we get together, we always say there’s not too many who still believe this, believe in what we do and how we do it — that you can win with effort, that you don’t have to fool people. Matt’s carrying the torch.”

It worked once before in Chicago.

“(Eberflus is) a straight shooter,” Polian said. “There isn’t a soul who has worked with him who doesn’t tell you that he’s dedicated, hardworking, confident, enthusiastic, disciplined and a great communicator. And that’s what you need in a head coach.”

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

The Saints are bringing back Pete Carmichael, the right-hand offensive man of Sean Payton, as Dennis Allen’s OC. John Sigler of YahooSports.com is skeptical:

We’re on to more of the same from Dennis Allen’s New Orleans Saints regime. The Saints have surveyed the field of candidates, interviewed a few of them, and went with another safe and comfortable choice in retaining Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator. That lines up with other Sean Payton coaching tree moves like hiring Doug Marrone as offensive line coach and, well, picking Allen himself as head coach. They just haven’t seen a reason to seriously look outside their established circle, much less shake things up by hiring someone new.

So what’s the deal with this Carmichael move? Nola.com’s Jeff Duncan reported last week that it was Carmichael’s decision to step down to a lesser role, making room for a new offensive coordinator. He also didn’t want to interview for head coach. His first instinct wasn’t to stay on as offensive coordinator. It wasn’t until the Saints interviewed other candidates and circled back to him that he agreed to return as offensive coordinator.

Maybe that was a negotiating ploy to try and get a raise or a contract extension (or both). Maybe he just wanted to feel wanted. But it speaks to the larger narrative of Carmichael’s career — in which he’s rarely interviewed for head coaching gigs, and often taken a backseat to Payton — that he just lacks ambition. There’s a time and place for that attitude. It’s tough to see this current moment in Saints history as a good time to settle. It feels like they’re comfortable only winning 9 or 10 games a year and maybe missing the playoffs. So long as seats are filled in the Superdome and TV ratings are strong, that’s enough for them.

But hey, maybe I’m wrong. The Saints have been wildly successful throughout Carmichael’s tenure, and the 2021 season was very much an aberration. Between injuries and COVID-19 problems and suspensions, it’s easy to write that one off as an anomaly. If the Saints invest in their offense and strengthen the depth chart and get some better luck, they should be on the right track. But that would’ve been the case for anyone they hired.

And maybe Carmichael has a binder full of fresh ideas that Payton didn’t consider. We’ve all been wound so tight over him just running Payton’s plays without any changes and that may not be the case. He could very well install a couple of new packages in minicamps and usher in a bright new era of offense.

I just can’t help but doubt this being the right approach. That system was successful for so long because Sean Payton drew the plays and Drew Brees executed them. Now neither of them are here. The future of their two cornerstone playmakers is also in doubt — how many games could Alvin Kamara be suspended, and when will Michael Thomas be himself again? If the Saints are just looking to run a Payton-and-Brees offense without Payton and Brees, and with uncertainty surrounding their best pass catchers, it’s really hard to feel optimistic about this strategy. We’ll have to wait and see.

Here are some of the guys that Carmichael beat out:

Matt Zenitz of On3.com had the first report that the Saints have interviewed former Washington head coach Jay Gruden for the job. Gruden most recently worked as the Jaguars offensive coordinator in 2020.

Gruden interviewed with the Panthers a couple of times before they hired Ben McAdoo as their offensive coordinator earlier this year.

Colts running backs coach Scottie Montgomery and Cowboys wide receivers coach Robert Prince have also interviewed for the position in New Orleans. Word last week was that last season’s offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael will remain on staff, but will take on a new role.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

In the aftermath of victory in Super Bowl 56, the definitive source on Sean McVay’s intentions has spoken.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Rams head coach Sean McVay’s future with the team came up for discussion in the days leading into Super Bowl LVI, but all signs point to him continuing in his current role.

McVay said during Wednesday’s championship celebration in Los Angeles that he plans to “run it back” with the Rams and COO Kevin Demoff said that McVay is ready to defend the title with the team next season. Now further confirmation of his plans comes from someone even closer to the coach.

McVay’s fiancee posted a picture of McVay captioned with “And no. He is NOT retiring!”

One would imagine that she’s privy to McVay’s thoughts about returning for another run with the Rams and the complete picture painted over the last couple of days is one that keeps McVay in his current job for the time being.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with an update on the situation surrounding QB DESHAUN WATSON, including the info that the Texans have $25 million more reasons this year to get his fate resolved.

As the football future of Teams quarterback Deshaun Watson slides back to the front burner, reports and speculation regarding teams for which he’d be willing to play (ESPN recently added the Buccaneers, who make sense, and the Vikings, who don’t, to the mix) remain premature. It’s unlikely that anyone will be making a move until greater clarity has been secured regarding his legal situation.

First, the lingering criminal probe. A grand jury at some point will complete its work regarding the pending complaints against Watson. If he’s indicted on one or more felony charges, a trade becomes much harder to accomplish. If he’s indicted on misdemeanor charges or not at all, it becomes easier for him to proceed.

Second, the pending lawsuits. Now that the Super Bowl has come and gone, Watson can be questioned under oath during a deposition. Depending on how he holds up under questioning (or doesn’t), it could become easier (or harder) to settle his cases. If a new team insists on all civil cases being resolved (as the Dolphins did last season), nothing will happen until he manages to get 22 deals done. And that quite possibly will drive up the price for resolving the 22 claims.

Meanwhile, the quarterback carousel has begun to spin. Teams with needs will begin looking for ways to fill them. And if Watson isn’t in position to be acquired, teams may look elsewhere.

The stakes for the Texans are considerably higher than last year. In 2021, the Texans paid Watson $10 million to not play. In 2022, that number spikes to $35 million.

INDIANAPOLIS

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com conjurs up 10 teams that might need the services of QB CARSON WENTZ as he is run out of Indy after being disposed of by Philly:

If Carson Wentz is going to play quarterback for Indianapolis in 2022, the Colts don’t know it yet. A year after trading a first- and third-round pick to acquire the ex-Eagles signal-caller, team brass is reportedly undecided on whether to retain Wentz for a second season — in large part because of owner Jim Irsay’s frustration with the way 2021 ended. The salary cap won’t stop them from making a move, either, as the Colts would save significant money by either trading or releasing the QB this offseason.

The question at the heart of the conversation is, what are their alternatives? As CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora noted Wednesday, even if the Colts prefer to upgrade, big names like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are unlikely to be had. But if they convince themselves another veteran — like Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins or Jimmy Garoppolo — is worth pursuing, Wentz’s own market could expand. Any acquiring team (via trade) would be on the hook for Wentz’s $28 million cap hit, but the QB’s deal includes no guaranteed money beyond 2022, meaning he could be cut at no cost.

Where, exactly, could Wentz end up, if it’s not back in Indy? Here are some potential suitors:

Unlikely but possible

Giants: New management has spoken highly of Daniel Jones, and the cap situation isn’t ideal. But if coach Brian Daboll is interested in competition without a total reset, he had a similarly skilled (albeit better) QB in Josh Allen with the Bills. New assistant general manager Brandon Brown worked for the Eagles during Wentz’s peak, as did assistant Mike Groh. Plus, they’d allow the Colts to ship him back to the NFC, where the Giants have seen his best stuff firsthand.

Panthers: You can’t put any move past a team with this much QB desperation, but after so many failed swings at mercurial options (Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, etc.), they feel much more likely to address the position through the draft.

Raiders: This only applies in the scenario where the Colts zero in on Derek Carr as their preferred upgrade. New coach Josh McDaniels might rather take a swing on Wentz and re-evaluate everything in 2023 than commit long-term, at a steep price, to a guy he’s yet to coach. McDaniels, remember, interviewed for the Eagles’ job in 2021 knowing Wentz may have been his QB.

Saints: Because of their dire cap situation, Wentz would only be a realistic target if he’s released. And he’d warrant a look, considering their dearth of QBs, but even then, his freewheeling style doesn’t quite feel like their approach.

Texans: Would they be better off giving second-year man Davis Mills a fuller crack at the top job? Sure. But with Deshaun Watson done here, they could afford competition, even if just to set up a bigger reset in 2023. The Colts might not prefer to keep Wentz in the division, but then again, if they’re willing to dump him after just one year, what do they care?

Vikings: Like the Raiders, this works only in the scenario where their current QB — in this case, Kirk Cousins — is moved. New coach Kevin O’Connell likes Cousins, but they also have a new GM who might not prefer to extend Kirk, who can save the team $35M if he’s dealt. Adding Wentz, a North Dakota native who grew up a Vikings fan, would allow them to re-evaluate in 2023.

The favorites

Broncos: Aaron Rodgers is the dream, but a far-fetched one, considering his improved relationship with the Packers. Unless it’s Russell Wilson (also unlikely) or Deshaun Watson (who has a big off-field asterisk), would they rather pay for Jimmy Garoppolo, who’s maybe slightly safer than Teddy Bridgewater? With plenty of cap space, they could afford to pair Wentz with a rookie and give themselves multiple options after 2022.

Buccaneers: They’d much prefer a safer, superstar fix after Tom Brady’s (temporary?) retirement, so Rodgers, Wilson and Watson will all get looks. Garoppolo and Jameis Winston might, too. But Bruce Arians has talked highly of Wentz before, and like all the other teams here, they’d have the flexibility of totally resetting in 2023 anyway.

Commanders: They need a QB, they’ve never been afraid of veteran swings, and yet Ron Rivera needs something more than another free-agent flyer (as evidenced by their reported offer for Matthew Stafford in 2021). With close to $30M in projected cap space, they have the money to pull it off, and they’ve also seen Wentz at his best in the NFC East.

Steelers: While a Rodgers trade would be sweet for both parties, they feel far more likely to go with a soft rebuild at QB as Mike Tomlin wades into post-Ben Roethlisberger waters. Wentz offers some traits of a younger Ben, and his arrival wouldn’t preclude them from drafting a QB. They’re also built to play like Wentz’s Colts did in 2021, leaning on the run and defense.

THIS AND THAT

QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL PREDICTIONS

Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic takes a swing at predicting the 2022 quarterback lineup.  He joins  the ranks of those thinking QB TOM BRADY is not retired:

With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, it’s time to turn our attention to what could be a wild 2022 NFL offseason. Last year, we saw Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold get traded. The San Francisco 49ers aggressively traded up in the first round of the draft to select Trey Lance. And stars like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson voiced displeasure with the teams that drafted them.

So what will the 2022 offseason bring us? Below are some bold and not-so-bold predictions about how it will all play out.

1. Aaron Rodgers returns to the Green Bay Packers

Rodgers has said he won’t keep everyone waiting long before announcing his plans for 2022. Given that we’re talking about the back-to-back MVP here, it should go without saying that Rodgers’ decision will have a domino effect on what else we see this offseason.

So what’s the case for him staying? It’s simple: Green Bay offers Rodgers the best chance to win another Super Bowl and to pile up more personal accolades.

That might sound strange, given that he’s been there for 17 years and “only” has one championship. But winning the Super Bowl is hard. It’s about being in the mix as often as possible and hoping that eventually the luck and randomness will fall your way. The Indianapolis Colts won one title in 13 years with Peyton Manning. The New England Patriots went nine seasons from 2005 to 2013 without winning a Super Bowl, and that was with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

The Packers have gone an NFL-best 39-10 in the regular season over the past three years. They’ve been in the NFC Championship twice. They haven’t gotten over the hump, but their window has not closed. They just need to keep knocking on the door.

Green Bay has some salary cap challenges. But Rodgers has a coach he knows well in Matt LaFleur, a true No. 1 wide receiver in Davante Adams (assuming the Packers bring him back) and an offensive line that continues to perform at a high level. If he sticks in the NFC, he’ll be in a conference that is wide open — especially as things currently stand with both Brady and Sean Payton gone. Rodgers would also be in a division where the Packers would be overwhelming favorites.

Maybe following Nathaniel Hackett to Denver would be appealing to Rodgers. But that would mean battling Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for the division. Add in Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and others if we’re talking about the conference. At 38 years old, is he really looking for a more difficult path to a title?

I don’t know what motivates Rodgers at this stage of his life. Maybe it goes beyond football, and the thought of trying out something new is appealing to him. Or maybe he’ll sit back and decide he just wants to retire. But if it’s about having another chance at a title and/or continuing to add to an all-time individual career, Green Bay still seems like the most attractive option.

2. Russell Wilson returns to the Seattle Seahawks

These are going to get bolder down the list — I promise!

Wilson’s situation is different from Rodgers’. As my colleagues reported last year, Wilson and Pete Carroll have not seen eye-to-eye when it comes to the Seahawks’ offensive philosophy. Seattle is coming off of a 7-10 season and has not advanced past the divisional round since 2014.

Wilson has — at least in the past — seen other quarterbacks with elite pass protection and shiny offensive schemes and wondered how he might perform under similar circumstances.

But from a Seahawks perspective, it’s tough to see the motivation in trading Wilson right now. Was last year bumpy? Yes. But would you believe that the Seahawks finished eighth overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric? They were seventh on offense. And that was during a season in which Wilson missed three games.

The Seahawks have now finished top-eight in offensive DVOA in eight of 10 seasons with Wilson. They’ve never been lower than 16th. This is what every team is chasing — or at least should be chasing. Offensive efficiency leads to sustained success. It doesn’t guarantee Super Bowls. But it puts you in the mix.

In terms of individual performance, Wilson has had ups and downs over the past two seasons. But the bottom line is that with him, regardless of the offensive line or coordinator or supporting cast, the Seahawks have pretty much always had an efficient offense. Even if it feels a little stale, is now really the time to give that up and chase something else?

Carroll turns 71 in September. Wilson is 33 and under contract for two more years. The Seahawks still have Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as viable weapons. And like the Packers, they’re in a conference with no clear favorite for 2022.

Maybe Wilson’s frustrations will boil over and the Seahawks will be blown away by a trade offer. But more likely, there will be rumors and drama that eventually die down, and they’ll run it back with Wilson in 2022.

3. The Colts trade Carson Wentz to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You don’t have to look hard for clues that Colts owner Jim Irsay was frustrated with year one of the Wentz experience.

The Athletic’s Zak Keefer did an excellent job of breaking down the Wentz situation. One nugget, per Keefer: Wentz’s decision to remain unvaccinated and leave himself more susceptible to miss games did not sit well with Irsay.

If you look just at the statistics, Wentz’s 2021 performance wasn’t that bad. He threw 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions and finished 16th in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per play model. But the same issues that have dogged him for much of his career — erratic accuracy, poor decision-making and an inability to convert the layup throws — continued to show up on film.

The idea of running it back with Wentz and hoping for the best can’t be appealing to Irsay, given that the franchise has one playoff win in the past seven seasons. And if Irsay is ready to move on, are Frank Reich and Chris Ballard really going to fight him, given how last season ended?

Sometimes, the biggest mistakes organizations make occur when they fail to admit that something’s just not working out. The Colts gave up a first- and a third-round pick for Wentz. They were hoping he could be a long-term answer for them. But now they have an additional season’s worth of information that probably has them feeling differently.

It’s tough to know what kind of trade market Wentz would have at this point. But the Bucs obviously have a need with Brady retiring. As The Athletic’s Greg Auman pointed out, Bruce Arians said in 2017 (yes, that was a long time ago!) that he was a big fan of Wentz.

“I loved him coming out. He reminded me a lot of Andrew Luck,” Arians said. “He’s big, strong, and physical. He played in a pro offense. He had that linebacker mentality playing quarterback. It shows up, his toughness.”

Wentz has a salary of $22 million ($15 million guaranteed) in 2022, along with a $6.3 million roster bonus. He’s under contract through 2024 but has no guarantees beyond next season. In other words, if things go well, great. You get him for three years. If things go terribly, you’re not tied to him. You can move on after one season.

Predicting compensation for quarterbacks is always difficult. Usually, it ends up being more than anticipated. The New York Jets received three picks, including a second-rounder, from the Carolina Panthers for Sam Darnold. But Darnold was coming from a terrible situation, was on a less expensive contract, and the Panthers were desperate.

A third- or a fourth-round pick might be more realistic for Wentz, and it’s entirely possible that he won’t even be able to fetch that much. Teams will have to wonder: If Reich, who put his reputation on the line for Wentz, is willing to give up on him after one year, why should we believe we can get something better out of him?

4. The San Francisco 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo to the Washington Commanders

Last offseason, Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a one-year deal, but he played in just one game for them before suffering an injury. Trading for Garoppolo could serve as a similar one-year band-aid solution. He would be under contract in 2022 for roughly $25.6 million. Garoppolo has his flaws, but he’s well-liked by teammates, and his teams have gone 33-14 when he’s been the starter.

It’s entirely possible that Garoppolo’s play would slip when removed from Kyle Shanahan and a strong supporting cast in San Francisco. But he should offer a relatively high floor. And that could be meaningful for a Washington franchise that has won just two playoff games in 23 seasons under Daniel Snyder.

The hope would be that Garoppolo could offer competence in 2022 while the franchise looks for a longer term solution via the draft or other avenues. And if Garoppolo happens to light it up, well, then Washington can think about keeping him around beyond next season

As for the 49ers, they can create roughly $25.6 million in cap space by trading Garoppolo, acquire draft capital and move forward with Lance.

Again, projecting compensation can be tricky, but perhaps something like a conditional third-round pick that can turn into a second would make sense. If Washington really likes Garoppolo and doesn’t have many other options, maybe something similar to the Darnold deal (a second, fourth and a sixth) would be in play.

5. The Steelers sign Marcus Mariota and draft a QB

There’s no obvious answer for how the Steelers should move forward in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. Their best option could be to take a couple swings and see what connects.

Mike Tomlin has seemed intrigued by the idea of having a more mobile quarterback, and despite Mariota’s flaws, he could offer that. When Mariota was last a free agent, he signed a two-year deal worth $17.6 million. Even that got negotiated down during his second season with the Las Vegas Raiders. In other words, he’s going to be much less expensive than many of the other options out there.

Roethlisberger finished 28th out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA per play last season. The Steelers wouldn’t need Mariota to be great. They would just need him to be relatively competent.

Meanwhile, they could use a draft pick on someone like Liberty’s Malik Willis and let him sit for a year if necessary. If Mariota surprises and plays well, that’s a nice outcome. If he doesn’t, they have another option.

In any event, it will be fun to see how Mike Tomlin manages to go 9-8 or better regardless of who’s playing quarterback.

6. The Minnesota Vikings trade Kirk Cousins to the Denver Broncos

Dear Denver, I love your city, but given my predictions in this piece, I completely understand if I am not allowed back for a while. Look forward to seeing you down the road. Be well.

The Broncos’ Plan A couldn’t be any more obvious. They would love to take a big swing on Rodgers. Basically everything they’ve done over the past year or so has set them up for that. And if Rodgers does want out of Green Bay, the Broncos have to be considered the heavy favorites to land him, given the Hackett connection, their available resources and the state of their roster.

But what’s Plan B?

The Broncos have a couple of connections to Cousins. One, general manager George Paton was in Minnesota with him. And two, Klint Kubiak is now their passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach. Kubiak was the Vikings’ quarterbacks coach in 2019 and 2020 and their offensive coordinator last season. The Broncos — for better or worse — have more intel on Cousins than pretty much any team in the NFL.

Having said that, there’s no way a team is trading for Cousins on his current contract, which carries a salary of $35 million for 2022. Two issues would need to be resolved before the Vikings could trade Cousins. One, how much of Cousins’ salary would the Vikings be willing to eat (in the form of a signing bonus) to trade him? And two, what type of draft compensation would a team be willing to give up to acquire Cousins?

The two questions are connected. If the Vikings were willing to pay, say, $25 million (not happening, just an extreme example to explain the point) of Cousins’ salary, and the new team was on the hook for just $10 million in 2022, well now all of a sudden he becomes more attractive, and a team might be willing to give up significant draft capital. Meanwhile, if the Vikings refused to pay any of the $35 million, well, now nobody’s going to give up even a conditional seventh.

The question becomes: Is there a middle ground that would make sense for both parties? If the Vikings were to pay $10 to $15 million, would a team give up a second-round pick for Cousins? Probably.

Trading for Cousins wouldn’t preclude the Broncos from looking at a QB in the draft. They could do both. If Cousins plays well in 2022, they could consider extending him. If not, they’d have another option with the player they drafted.

The truth is the Vikings are in a tough spot with no great solution. Cousins has a $45 million cap hit for 2022. They could try to extend him, but that’s not going to be cheap. Do they really want to tie more money to Cousins? They could play out 2022 with Cousins on his current deal and see where they are at the end of the year. Or they could take their medicine now, move on, acquire a pick or two, sign a low-cost veteran like Teddy Bridgewater and look to draft a quarterback who can be a longer-term solution.

The Athletic’s Chad Graff put the chances of a Cousins trade at 25%.

7. The Atlanta Falcons trade Matt Ryan to the Cleveland Browns

Be honest. At the beginning of this column, you were thinking: These aren’t very bold. Now you’re thinking: How many beers did Sheil have before coming up with these?

Let’s be clear here: The most likely scenario is that the Falcons don’t trade Ryan. Having said that, I think sometimes we get confused about what “dead money” means when it comes to NFL contracts. Simply put, it’s money that gets charged to a team’s salary cap for a player who’s no longer on the roster. It is bad business to waste cap space on players who are not playing. You don’t need an economics degree to understand that.

But the way teams view dead money now is different than it was five or 10 years ago. Take the Eagles, for example. They traded Wentz last year and incurred the largest dead cap hit in NFL history: $33.8 million. Why? Because Wentz wanted to move on, the Eagles decided they were fine moving on, and they were receiving significant draft capital in return.

Which brings us to Ryan. According to OverTheCap.com, he would carry a dead cap hit of $40.5 million if the Falcons traded him. That would overtake the Wentz hit as the biggest in NFL history. But there’s always going to be a price that makes incurring a hit like that worth it — specifically if you don’t have much use for the player. If a team offered the Falcons their next three drafts for Ryan, would Atlanta take the dead cap hit and do that deal? Of course! That’s an extreme example, but hopefully you get the point.

So what’s the theoretical deal that would at least make the Falcons not hang up the phone? If a team offered the same deal that the Eagles took for Wentz — a conditional second that could turn into a first, plus a third — would that be enough?

Ryan was up and down last year and finished the season 24th in EPA per play. The Falcons’ offense finished 28th in DVOA. They had one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, traded Julio Jones before the season and got Calvin Ridley for just five games. The Falcons have one of the worst cap situations in the league. They are going to need to build methodically through the draft. Trading Ryan would free up roughly $8 million in cap space for 2022. They could use that money to sign a low-cost bridge option at quarterback if they need to and then explore the draft for a longer-term option.

The Browns are in a tough spot. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and one of the best overall rosters. Given how last season played out, coming back and just handing the keys to Baker Mayfield feels like it would be a mistake. If a player like Wilson actually became available, the Browns should be at the front of the line to land him. That would elevate them to legit contender.

And it’s possible that they’d view someone like Cousins or Derek Carr as a significant upgrade.

Ryan turns 37 in May. The Browns would have to convince themselves that he’s still capable of offering a couple years of high-level play if surrounded by a better supporting cast. Ryan’s contract is not bad for a team that wants to acquire him. It’s roughly $25.9 million per year for the next two seasons with no money guaranteed.

Why do I have a feeling I’m going to get crushed by both Browns fans and Falcons fans for this idea? Let’s just move on.

8. The Las Vegas Raiders trade Carr to the Colts

Carr is entering the final year of his deal. The NFL Network reported that the Raiders are prepared to offer him an extension. But that could be a tricky negotiation. The market for quality starters now generally falls in the $35 million to $40 million per year range. Would the Raiders, who just hired coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler, be willing to make that type of commitment to Carr right away?

Another option would be to gauge the trade market. And if they found a deal they liked, they could acquire a couple picks and look for a long-term quarterback option in the draft.

Carr has just one year left on his deal for $19.8 million. As far as quarterback contracts go, that’s a bargain.

If the Colts move on from Wentz, it seems like their goal will be to find a replacement who can help them win right now. Maybe someone else like Cousins or Ryan or Garoppolo would make sense. But Carr will be just 31 at the start of next season. He’s demonstrated strong leadership skills with the Raiders, and he’s been durable (hasn’t missed a regular-season start in the past four years). The Colts could see how he fits in 2022, and if things work out, they could sign him to a long-term deal.

The Los Angeles Rams sent two firsts, a third and Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions for Stafford. But the extra first was so the Lions would take on Goff’s contract. Would the Colts be willing to trade a 2023 first (they don’t have their first this year) to land Carr?

9. The Eagles add a QB to compete with or replace Jalen Hurts

The Eagles were a feel-good story last season. They went 9-8 and made the playoffs. But it’s fair to wonder whether GM Howie Roseman and owner Jeffrey Lurie watched the rest of the postseason unfold and thought: We’re not close to competing with those teams.

Lurie and Roseman have long (correctly) believed that an efficient and explosive passing game is the key to sustained success. Last year, Nick Sirianni’s offense morphed into a run-heavy attack. It was a great example of a head coach adapting to his personnel. But the question is: Can that type of offense be sustainable in the long run? And are the Eagles really willing to commit to it?

The Eagles are 31-33-1 since they won the Super Bowl. They’ve been living in the middle tier of the NFL — better than the bad teams, but not in the same class as the really good teams. They’ve gone four consecutive seasons without fielding a team that’s finished in the top eight in DVOA. The last time that happened for them was 1997 to 2000.

This prediction is purposely vague because the Eagles could go in a number of different directions. They have three first-round picks. If someone like Wilson were to become available, they would surely at least inquire. Or maybe they fall in love with someone like Willis or Kenny Pickett in the draft.

Hurts exceeded expectations last year and finished 17th in EPA per play. If we remove scrambles, he drops down to 23rd. To sit tight and roll with Hurts as the unquestioned starter in 2022, the Eagles would have to be convinced that he can make major strides as a passer.

Last offseason was about setting themselves up for this offseason. Maybe the Eagles feel like Hurts can improve, and they’ll let him have 2022, and then see where they’re at this time next year. They could even try to trade back in this year’s draft to acquire picks for 2023. That would be a perfectly reasonable option.

But given the resources they currently have available, it would be no surprise to see them opt for a more aggressive path in the months ahead. Whether it’s via trade or the use of a first-round pick, the guess here is that the first two names on the quarterback depth chart won’t be Hurts and Gardner Minshew going into Week 1 of next season.

10. Tom Brady unretires and is on an NFL roster in Week 1

C’mon! You knew this one was coming! Brady set the all-time record for shortest amount of time between an athlete retiring and everyone assuming he was going to come back.

The reason his retirement is so hard to believe is because he was just so freakin’ good last year. He finished fifth in EPA per play during the regular season. That was ahead of guys like Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. It’s just so rare to see a quarterback who is still playing that well call it quits, especially one who is as maniacally competitive as Brady.

I can respect Brady wanting to spend more time with his kids, but soon he will learn what the rest of us know: They’re in school for most of the day, and when they get home, they want to play Sneaky Sasquatch on their iPads, watch TV and generally ignore their parents.

Plus, it’s not like this needs to be a huge commitment. Brady can work out when the kids are in school, take vacations with them in June and July, sign with a team in training camp, go through a seven-month season and then rejoin everyone in February for the rest of his life — potentially with one more ring on his finger.

My colleague Mike Sando (and others) have brought up the idea of the 49ers as a potential suitor, and until Lance is on the field in Week 1, that feels like the Brady rumor that’s not going away. So does it make sense?

All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams will be 34 at the start of next season. Center Alex Mack will be 36. Players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are in their primes. Put simply: This is a team that’s built to contend for a title right now. Brady might not seem like the perfect fit for Shanahan’s scheme, but they’re both bright guys. It might take a little time, but they’d be able to figure it out.

Maybe it won’t be the 49ers. What if a team with a loaded roster sees its starting quarterback suffer an injury in the spring or summer? They’d at least have to call Brady, right?

It’s entirely possible that Brady will be perfectly content enjoying retirement. Maybe he’s the rare athlete who is willing to say goodbye even when he’s still near the top of his profession. But him waking up one day, surveying the NFC landscape and deciding that he wants to chase one more ring shouldn’t shock anyone.

Issues left unresolved by this exercise – who replaced Matt Ryan in Atlanta, what happens to Baker Mayfield, what about Deshaun Watson, who quarterbacks the Saints, who replaces Kirk Cousins in Minnesota

2022 DRAFT

A Mock Draft from Kevin Hanson of SI.com:

After selecting Trevor Lawrence No. 1 last year, the Jaguars clearly won’t use the top pick on a quarterback again.

Given how quarterbacks are often pushed up the board, however, would any other team select one if they were in Jacksonville’s (draft) position? That’s unlikely given this year’s crop of signal-callers, which in turn reduces the potential for a QB-needy franchise to make an aggressive move to the top spot in this draft.

Perhaps some teams will look ahead to what appears to be a better quarterback class in 2023, but another interesting feature of this draft class is the lack of clarity around who will be QB1. Not only will the first quarterback be drafted later than usual, but there is nothing close to a consensus on which one it will be.

Over the past quarter century, top picks used on players at other positions have featured prospects who either protect the quarterback (1997, 2008 and ’13) or pressure him (’00, ’06, ’14 and ’17).

While one of those two positions will likely start this year’s draft, there are multiple offensive tackles or edge defenders who could make their cases to be the first players selected at their respective positions. This year’s draft shouldn’t lack for mystery and intrigue.

With that said, here’s my first look at how the first round could play out on April 28.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Those in Duval County could barely contain their excitement this time last year. The Jags were flush with cap space and draft capital, which included the opportunity to draft the prospect penciled into the top spot since he was a freshman. The Jaguars are picking first again after falling considerably short of expectations in the (less than) one-and-done Urban Meyer era.

With plenty of holes to fill, maximizing Lawrence’s development should be Jacksonville’s top priority heading into his second season. Assuming left tackle Cam Robinson is not tagged again or signed to an extension, Neal would become a Day 1 starter at left tackle. After starting 40 total career games, at a different position each season (LG, RT and LT, respectively), the versatile former five-star recruit has tremendous power to dominate at the point of attack and is an easy mover for a player with his massive 360-pound frame.

2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan

Hutchinson collected postseason awards and honors in 2021 after setting Michigan’s single-season sack record (14), which included three against archrival Ohio State. While physical traits are valued more highly than collegiate production when projecting edge rushers to the next level, the former Wolverine is also expected to test well at next month’s combine. Hutchinson fills an on-field need as only the Broncos had a lower pass-rush win rate last season than the Lions, but his intangibles, work ethic and football character are a perfect fit for what Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes want to build in the Motor City.

3. Houston Texans: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon

The Texans can go in a few different directions here, but only four teams had fewer sacks than Houston (32) in 2021. Jonathan Greenard (eight sacks) had a breakout sophomore campaign, but the team’s other players with at least three sacks in ’21 will either be free agents (Jacob Martin and Kamu Grugier-Hill) or were released midseason (Whitney Mercilus). An ankle injury may have slowed Thibodeaux early in the season, but the former top high school recruit has the size, length and burst to form a talented pass-rushing duo with Greenard.

4. New York Jets: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Given Joe Douglas’s preference to build through the trenches, it’s very possible Ikem Ekwonu will make it three consecutive Jets’ drafts with a first-round offensive lineman. For now, though, let’s operate under the premise the Jets will start George Fant at left tackle, shift Mekhi Becton to right tackle and “throw a lot of money” at a free-agent guard, as predicted last month by SNY’s Ralph Vacchiano.

A rangy playmaker with elite size (6′ 4″ and 219 pounds), Hamilton has the versatility to be used as a defensive chess piece and the coverage ability to erase top pass-catching tight ends. Hamilton had eight interceptions over three seasons in South Bend. Meanwhile, only the Raiders (six) picked off fewer passes than the Jets (seven) last season.

5. New York Giants: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

Ekwonu is in the mix to be the first pick, and he would be an easy choice for the Giants here, if available. Even with left tackle Andrew Thomas playing much better in 2021 than he did as a rookie in ’20, the Giants had one of the league’s worst offensive lines last season, and several of their starters are impending free agents, including right tackle Nate Solder. Dubbed “Mr. Pancake” (with 67 syrup bottles to represent each of his pancake blocks), Ekwonu is a mauler in the run game with the traits to continue to develop as a pass blocker and the experience and versatility to play either tackle or guard.

6. Carolina Panthers: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

Could this be the point where the first quarterback comes off the board? Sure, but I think the Panthers will instead cross off (pun intended) one of their other biggest needs here at left tackle. With only this pick in the first three rounds, the Panthers could pursue a trade partner to slide back and acquire more picks as well. In Mike Leach’s Air Raid system, Cross gained tons of pass-blocking experience (1,293 snaps over two seasons, per PFF), and the former five-star recruit uses his length and light feet to excel in pass protection.

7. New York Giants (via Bears): David Ojabo, edge, Michigan

Second-round rookie Azeez Ojulari led the Giants in sacks (eight) in 2021, but the team still ranked 30th in pass-rush win rate last season. Relatively raw, Ojabo began playing organized football as a junior in high school and was only a one-year starter at Michigan. That said, he recorded double-digit sacks (11) last season. While he can start his career as a situational pass rusher, his length, explosiveness and bend give him as much upside as any pass rusher in this class.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

Following his 2019 true freshman season, Stingley seemed destined to be the CB1 lock in this draft class, but he has played only 10 games since then and not at the same elite level. One of the youngest prospects in the draft (he turns 21 in June), the former five-star recruit has prototypical size and length, and elite athleticism and ball skills. If he reaches his potential at the next level, the duo of A.J. Terrell and Stingley will make it extremely difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

9. Denver Broncos: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

Will the Broncos use this pick (and more) to trade for Aaron Rodgers (or another quarterback)? Time will tell, but new Broncos coach (and ex-Packers offensive coordinator) Nathanial Hackett is reportedly “pushing hard to trade” for Rodgers. If the Broncos retain this pick (and don’t draft a quarterback), Lloyd would give them a playmaker in the middle of the defense. Several of Denver’s inside linebackers—Kenny Young, A.J. Johnson and Josey Jewell—are unrestricted free agents next month. The Pac-12’s Defensive Player of the Year, the do-it-all former Ute ended 2021 with 110 tackles, 22 TFLs, eight sacks and four interceptions.

10. New York Jets (via Seahawks): Jermaine Johnson II, edge, Florida State

Later in this mock, you’ll see four Georgia defenders, but is it possible that a former Bulldog will be selected before any of them? In his lone season after transferring from Georgia, Johnson led the ACC in sacks (11.5) and tackles for loss (17.5) and was named the conference’s 2021 Defensive Player of the Year. After his stellar week at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Johnson may have put himself in the top-10 mix come April.

11. Washington Commanders: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Finally, a quarterback is selected. In search of stability at the position, Washington has started three different quarterbacks in four consecutive seasons and has had a total of 10 different starters over that span. Pickett turns 24 in June and is as pro-ready as any quarterback in this draft class. After throwing 39 touchdowns and 25 interceptions from 2017 to ’20, Pickett threw 42 touchdowns to only seven interceptions last season.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Three Minnesota cornerbacks played more than 160 defensive snaps last year, and two of them—Patrick Peterson (884) and Mackensie Alexander (689)—are headed toward free agency. If Stingley isn’t CB1, chances are that Gardner will be. With ideal length and smooth footwork, the ball-hawking—three interceptions in each of past three seasons—cornerback has the versatility to excel in either press or off coverage.

13. Cleveland Browns: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

The Browns cut Odell Beckham Jr. midseason, Rashard Higgins will be a free agent next month and Jarvis Landry may be a salary-cap casualty. If Landry is released, it would save the Browns over $15 million toward the cap. This year’s draft class may lack an elite top-five talent like Ja’Marr Chase, but it’s still one of the stronger position groups in the draft, and the Browns could have their choice at a position of need. My top-ranked receiver in this class, Wilson has outstanding body control and run-after-catch ability.

14. Baltimore Ravens: George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue

Karlaftis often faced double or even triple teams at Purdue, but he wins with power, heavy hands, a quick first step and a relentless motor. At 275 pounds, the true junior has inside-outside versatility. Justin Houston will be a free agent next month.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (via Dolphins): Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

Could the Eagles draft a first-round wide receiver for a third year in a row? Perhaps it’s too early to throw in the towel on Jalen Reagor, but Burks would complement the 170-pound DeVonta Smith well. Burks has a special blend of size (6′ 3″, 225 pounds) and breakaway speed. Due to his physicality, run-after-catch prowess and how the Razorbacks varied his alignments, it’s easy to see how the Eagles could use Burks similarly to how the 49ers use Deebo Samuel.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (via Colts): Tyler Linderbaum, IOL, Iowa

After earning his fourth first-team All-Pro selection in 2021, Jason Kelce may be back for his age-35 season next year. While Landon Dickerson may have been drafted to eventually replace Kelce, he has the versatility to remain at guard if the Eagles were to draft Linderbaum. Earning plenty of comps to Kelce, Linderbaum is the most athletic center prospect in this year’s draft class.

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia

Georgia has a loaded defense, but Davis was a big reason why the Bulldogs ranked top-three nationally in run defense in each of the past three seasons. Adding an elite run-stuffing nose tackle like Davis would go a long way toward shoring up the Chargers’ run defense, which ranked 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA.

18. New Orleans Saints: Matt Corral, QB, Mississippi

A wide receiver—such as Drake London, Jameson Williams or Chris Olave—would make sense here, but the Saints opt for a long-term upgrade at quarterback instead. Not only is Jameis Winston a free agent, but the Saints lack salary-cap flexibility. Corral has a quick release, and his dual-threat skill set allows him to escape pressure to extend plays or be a weapon on designed runs.

19. Philadelphia Eagles: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

I strongly considered slotting Nakobe Dean (I know, the Eagles don’t take first-round linebackers) or his former Georgia teammate Travon Walker here. Interestingly enough, it’s also been 20 years since the Eagles have selected a cornerback in the first round (Lito Shepard, 2002). With all of that said, Booth is a good athlete with outstanding ball skills and Steven Nelson is a free agent.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

By default, Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement moves Mason Rudolph into the QB1 spot. For now. Pittsburgh’s interest in Willis is no secret, and the Auburn-to-Liberty signal-caller has as much upside as any quarterback in this class. While he needs to show more consistency, the ball jumps off his hands and he’s the most dangerous runner at the position.

21. New England Patriots: Drake London, WR, USC

Drafting early-round wide receivers has been more miss than hit for Bill Belichick, but London is a top-15 talent who should elevate to the WR1 role early in his career for the Patriots. A former USC basketball player, the 6′ 5″ wideout uses his large frame and wide catch radius to dominate at the catch point.

22. Las Vegas Raiders: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Given a depth chart loaded with former five-star recruits, Ohio State may have become college football’s WRU. But their loss (with Williams) became Alabama’s gain as the former Buckeye had a breakout season (78/1,561/15) in Tuscaloosa in 2021. While his torn ACL suffered against Georgia may push him into the back half of Round 1, Williams will become the fifth first-round wide receiver for Bama in three years. His game-changing speed would complement the Raiders’ receiving corps well with what they had hoped impending free agent DeSean Jackson could provide.

23. Arizona Cardinals: Travon Walker, edge, Georgia

Walker’s sack totals (six over 15 games in 2021) don’t jump off the page, but he led the Bulldogs with 36 QB hurries and his best football is ahead of him. Walker has some inside-outside versatility, and he’s even dropped some in coverage despite weighing 275 pounds. Not only is Chandler Jones an impending free agent, but J.J. Watt has averaged only 9.2 games over his past six seasons and will be 33 in March.

24. Dallas Cowboys: Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M

The highly-penalized Connor Williams will become a free agent, so the Cowboys need an upgrade/replacement at left guard. A three-year starter, Green started at RG in 2019 and LG in ’20, and showed off his versatility in ’21 by making starts at four different positions—all but center—along the offensive line.

25. Buffalo Bills: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Levi Wallace led Buffalo’s corners in snaps played and will be an unrestricted free agent next month. Meanwhile, the team’s top cornerback (Tre’Davious White) is recovering from a torn ACL. While you can never have too many talented cornerbacks, McDuffie could be off the board much earlier than this and would be a wise choice for the Bills.

26. Tennessee Titans: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

Dean may not last this deep into the draft, but Mike Vrabel and the Titans should be thrilled if he does. Although he’s not the biggest (6′ 0″ and 225 pounds), Dean’s football IQ, instincts and exceptional athleticism allow him to diagnose quickly and make plays from sideline to sideline in the run and pass game.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

Would Bruce Arians be comfortable starting Kyle Trask in Year 2? Perhaps so, based on recent comments, but there’s also only one quarterback under contract (Trask) for 2022, and he was inactive for every game as a rookie. Arguably the best deep passer in this draft class, Howell would match stylistically with what Arians would like to do in the vertical passing game.

28. Green Bay Packers: Devonte Wyatt, IDL, Georgia

Will Aaron Rodgers be under center for the Packers in 2022? Will Davante Adams and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling be back? The answers to those questions could change the direction of this pick in future iterations of my mock, but for now, the front office gets some help for Kenny Clark. Like several other key contributors to Georgia’s loaded defense, Wyatt’s stats won’t wow anyone. That said, he has elite quickness and The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman labeled Wyatt as the team’s “biggest Freak.” After generating plenty of buzz at the Senior Bowl, Wyatt should continue that positive momentum with elite testing numbers at the combine.

29. Miami Dolphins (via 49ers): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Addressing one of Miami’s biggest needs heading into the offseason would help to support Tua Tagovailoa’s development. Olave is a polished route-runner with the ability to be a weapon in the vertical passing game. The former Buckeye holds the school record with 35 receiving touchdowns and has averaged 15.4 yards per catch over his career.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

Safety Tyrann Mathieu wants to re-sign with the Chiefs, but four of the team’s top six defensive backs in terms of snaps played are currently unsigned for 2022. The brother of Ravens running back Justice Hill and a former five-star recruit out of Oklahoma, Hill will test off the charts next month in Indy and has the versatility to be utilized in a variety of alignments.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

Before the 2021 season, the Jaguars and Bengals had similar longshot odds to win Super Bowl LVI. Unlike the Jaguars, the Bengals vastly exceeded all expectations. Counting the playoffs, Joe Burrow was sacked a combined 70 times in 20 games. Yes, Chase was the right decision in the Chase vs. Penei Sewell debate, but improving Burrow’s protection has to be the team’s top priority this offseason. Penning would immediately become an upgrade over right tackle Isaiah Prince, who graded out as PFF’s 82nd of 83 qualified offensive tackles in ’21. I’d expect the Bengals to devote multiple draft picks to address their offensive line woes.

32. Detroit Lions (via Rams): Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

After finding success on Day 3 of last year’s draft with Amon-Ra St. Brown, one of the team’s few bright spots in 2021, the Lions still need to add more weapons in the passing game. Although he’s the sixth receiver off the board in this mock, Dotson is a first-round talent with excellent quickness, hands and route-running prowess.