The NFL is closing in on its final salary cap – and it is going to be somewhat higher than the worst fears.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The NFL salary cap in 2021 has a new floor.

NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported Thursday that, in a memo to teams, the NFL said the salary cap floor has been increased from $175 million to $180 million following talks with the NFLPA, per sources informed of the situation.

The memo in full reads:

“As you know, one aspect of the agreements negotiated last summer with the NFLPA to address operations during the pandemic provides that the 2021 Salary Cap will be no less than $175 million. Following discussions with the union that addressed both actual 2020 revenues and projected attendance for the 2021 season, we have agreed to increase the minimum Salary cap for the 2021 League Year to $180 million.

“This is not the final Salary Cap for the 2021 League Year, which will be set following review of final 2020 revenue figures and other audit and accounting adjustments. This agreement simply increases the minimum 2021 Salary Cap by $5 million per club, from $175 million to $180 million.

“We will promptly advise all clubs as soon as the Salary Cap is set.”

With the COVID-19 pandemic wreaking havoc, the expectation has been that the salary cap would fall significantly from 2020’s $198.2 million budget. After years of increasing by tens of millions of dollars, the fall is expected to be precipitous. The new floor mitigates some of that decrease.

Until the official cap is set, teams won’t know exactly how much room they’ll have to maneuver through free agency in 2021. At the very least, the new floor gives clubs a starting point to begin making plans ahead of the new league year, which opens on March 17.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Apparently Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is well positioned to make a pile of cash as Texas freezes.  Mike Rosenstein of NJAdvanceMedia.com:

If the Dallas Cowboys don’t sign free-agent quarterback Dak Prescott to a new contract this year, it won’t be for a lack of cash.

The Dallas Morning News reports Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is “hitting the jackpot” thanks to this week’s crippling winter storm in Texas, which has left millions without power.

The Frisco-based natural gas producer owned by Dallas billionaire Jerry Jones is cashing in on a surge in prices for the fuel as a brutal freeze grips the central U.S. … Comstock Resources Inc. has been able to sell gas from its Haynesville Shale wells in East Texas and northern Louisiana at premium prices since Thursday. As demand jumps amid the cold, gas at some regional hubs has soared past $1,000 per million British thermal units.

Per Pro Football Talk, that seems like “good news for Jones, who, two years ago, had a total investment of $1.1 billion in Comstock. His oil and gas company has become the leading producer in one of the nation’s largest natural gas basins.”

If the Cowboys choose not to sign a long-term deal with Prescott, they could slap the franchise tag on him for the second straight year. But that comes with a price tag of nearly $40 million, which would be a significant chunk of Dallas’ salary cap in 2021.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

CB RICHARD SHERMAN understands his time with the Niners is at an end.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

Your latest Richard Sherman update is unexciting, but intriguing for familiar reasons.

Sherman believes his time with the 49ers is over, something he’s said in December and earlier this month. Now he’s telling us why he thinks he’s moving on from San Francisco next month.

“It’s been made pretty clear,” Sherman said this week of his talks with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch, via the Sacramento Bee. “It was a good conversation, nothing crazy. Just a good conversation about where they are and where I am, and their plans. We were both very positive and as good as you can be in a situation like this.”

At 32 years old and at the end of a three-year deal signed in 2018, Sherman simply no longer fits with the 49ers. Add in the lower salary cap projection that’s forcing teams across the league to say goodbye to veterans, and it’s understandable why both he and 49ers brass are on the same page and set to part ways amicably, closing what Sherman called “an incredible chapter in my career.”

Even if the 49ers weren’t dealing with the cap crunch, it wouldn’t be a guarantee that San Francisco would bring Sherman back. The veteran struggled with calf issues in 2020, playing in just five games and recording one interception. He would still carry a ton of value with his locker room presence, though, which the 49ers will miss — and a team with a need in the secondary and cap space to spend will welcome.

For now, it’s a matter of letting the days pass before Sherman moves elsewhere. It seems his tone and the team’s perspective won’t change before the start of the new league year.

AFC WEST

DENVER

It sounds like VON MILLER’s continued employment by the Broncos is not assured.  A tweet from Mike Klis:

@MikeKlis

Per sources, Broncos GM George Paton has yet to reach out to reps of Von Miller($7m guarantee) /Kareem Jackson ($1.5M g) to discuss their team options.

This indicates Paton has yet to make final determination on multiple ways he can go regarding these players’ options. #9sports

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com makes a case that the Ravens should spend some cash in free agency on the offense:

After the season, Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta was asked about whether the offense will change philosophically in how much it throws the ball.

“As far as the scheme and all of those types of things, that’s the coaching staff, that’s the players [and] that’s [offensive coordinator] Greg Roman,” DeCosta said. “I’m more interested in what time it is more so than how to actually build a watch.”

Offensively, the Ravens have had the look of a Rolex at the cost of a Timex. In Lamar Jackson’s two full seasons as its starting quarterback, Baltimore has scored an NFL-best 31.2 points per game while committing the league’s third-fewest cap dollars to its offense.

Is it finally time for the Ravens to spend in free agency to take the NFL’s best bargain offense to the next level? DeCosta projected that Baltimore will have between $15 million to $20 million in cap space in free agency. A chunk of that can go a long way in upgrading the supporting cast for Jackson, providing more experience at wide receiver, offensive line and tight end.

All of the significant free-agent additions Baltimore has made the past two seasons have been at a minimal price and are no longer on the team: running back Mark Ingram (cut), quarterback Robert Griffin III (cut), wide receivers Willie Snead (free agent), Dez Bryant (free agent) and Seth Roberts (free agent) and offensive lineman D.J. Fluker (free agent).

Right now, Baltimore’s starting offense is comprised of homegrown players with nine draft picks and two players originally signed as undrafted rookies. This is a reflection of the strong drafts by DeCosta and former GM Ozzie Newsome, but this shouldn’t overshadow the need to address offense in free agency.

Baltimore’s spending on offense will increase because the Ravens will sign their top young players to second contracts. It started in October when Baltimore struck a five-year, $98.75 million extension with left tackle Ronnie Stanley. It will continue this year when the Ravens are expected to reach long-term deals with Jackson and tight end Mark Andrews, which should make them among the highest paid at their positions.

At this point, only three offensive players rank among the team’s top 10 cap hits in 2021: Stanley ($15.25 million), tight end Nick Boyle ($7.83 million) and fullback Patrick Ricard ($3.98 million).

The big money doled out by the Ravens on free agents (and trade acquisitions) have been tilted to defense recently with cornerback Marcus Peters, defensive end Calais Campbell, pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue and safety Earl Thomas, who has since been cut. Baltimore will need to fill the void at outside linebacker this offseason, whether it’s adding a free agent or re-signing someone like Matthew Judon, Tyus Bowser or Pernell McPhee, but it’s not like last year when the Ravens wanted to revamp their defensive front seven.

The free-agent focus this year for the Ravens should be on offense. So, let’s take a look at the positions of need for Baltimore:

Wide receiver: It’s tantalizing to think how much Jackson would improve if paired with a free-agent prize like Allen Robinson II or Kenny Golladay. But DeCosta tempered expectations when he said it’s not all about getting a No. 1 wide receiver. Pro Football Focus predicted Baltimore would sign second-tier receivers Sammy Watkins and A.J. Green. Whatever the move, the Ravens know they need to do more than they did last year, when their biggest veteran signing at wide receiver was Bryant.

Guard: The Ravens didn’t bring in an experienced blocker to replace Marshal Yanda, an eight-time Pro Bowl lineman who retired last year. Baltimore can rectify that this year by signing Joe Thuney, a two-time Super Bowl champion with the Patriots who is considered one of the top guard available. Kevin Zeitler, a former first-round pick, could become available if he gets cut by the Giants. If the Ravens don’t want to splurge, they can go with Tyre Phillips at guard, but the 2020 third-round pick struggled to stay healthy as a rookie.

Center: Baltimore hasn’t spent money at center since Matt Birk retired after the 2012 Super Bowl season, but this position has drawn plenty of attention after the errant snaps of Matt Skura and Patrick Mekari proved costly. Corey Linsley, the top center in free agency, is expected to stay in Green Bay. One intriguing option is the Falcons’ Alex Mack, if he doesn’t retire. He was drafted in the first round in 2009, when Ravens director of player personnel George Kokinis was the Browns GM.

Tight end: The Ravens should look for another pass-catching tight end behind Andrews. But this feels like a position that the Ravens will address in the middle rounds of the draft. If the price is right, Baltimore can add a low-cost insurance policy in the Colts’ Trey Burton or the Cardinals’ Dan Arnold.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

Has any team changed their uniforms around more than the Jaguars?  Nick Shook ofNFL.com on the team’s teal reveal:

The Jaguars have heard their fans and are pivoting back to their proper look as they turn the page to a new era in Duval.

Jacksonville is switching its primary home uniform color from black to teal, the team announced Wednesday.

The shift to teal is the latest in a line of branding efforts made to remake the franchise’s image and follows the club’s turn to its current, simpler uniforms after forcing the garish, two-toned helmet sets onto the football world for five years. Teal was included in the team’s most recent redesign, but as an alternate — a Color Rush, back when that was an official thing — that could only be worn occasionally.

Wednesday’s announcement changes that to a full-time reality.

Jacksonville wore teal as its primary color from the franchise’s 1995 inception through 2011, making them easily identifiable by a color not worn by any other team in the NFL. Jaguars greats Tony Boselli, Fred Taylor and Keenan McCardell made their memorable plays wearing teal as part of a color scheme that only could have come from the 1990s, but endures as a recognizable blend into the 2020s.

The club shifted to its black alternate top as the new home uniform in 2012 and began a theme that would last through two redesigns (2013 and 2019) and into 2020. Now, the Jags will be headed back to their roots, reserving the black tops as an alternate available for key games, as the franchise once did in the first decade of the century.

“We’ve heard the fans loud and clear,” head equipment manager Jimmy Luck said in a release from the team. “As the only team in the NFL that wears teal, we know what this color means to our organization, the 904 and our entire fanbase. Teal inspires great memories of some of our franchise’s greatest moments. Making the switch to teal as our primary uniform color allows us to celebrate that history while kicking off a new era of Jaguars football.”

Already a popular choice of Jaguars fans everywhere, Jacksonville might soon be able to purchase a freshly pressed Trevor Lawrence jersey in that recognizable teal. Maybe they’ll even bring the teal champagne back a few years from now.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

J.J. WATT and the Bills are getting interested in each other.  Matt Parino ofNYUpstate.com:

As free agent J.J. Watt continues to mull over his options, the Buffalo Bills are apparently on his radar as excitement mounts around the league for his decision.

ESPN’s Kimberley Martin reported on Wednesday that the Bills are one of several teams looking to add Watt and have inquired about signing him.

The best part of the report if you’re a Bills fan? The interest is “definitely mutual,” per Martin.

The Houston Texans released Watt last Friday because he was set to make $17.5 million in the final year of his contract. There was no dead cap penalty for moving on and Watt has made it clear in the days that followed that he wants to play for a Super Bowl contender.

Buffalo certainly falls into that category after losing in the AFC Championship game last month. One of the areas of their roster that needs the most attention is on the defensive line. Watt would add a high level pass rusher to the mix and potentially help take some of the attention and pressure off other defensive linemen like Ed Oliver and Jerry Hughes.

Watt is also reportedly “seriously considering” the Cleveland Browns, according to Mary Kay Cabot from Cleveland.com. In her report she said that the two biggest things factoring into Watt’s decision are money and landing with a Super Bowl contender.

The money part is a tough deal for the Bills. General manager Brandon Beane said earlier this offseason that fans shouldn’t bank on any blockbuster moves. But luckily for the fourth-year GM, the way he structured a lot of free agent contacts over the past two seasons gives him plenty of maneuverability when it comes to contracts currently on the books.

Buffalo is right around the projected salary cap of $181 million and would have to move some things around to make room for whatever Watt is expected to sign for. The Bills also have a number of their own free agents that will be commanding raises on the open market next month.

THIS AND THAT

THE QBs OF 2021

Here is an interesting exercise as Field Yates of ESPN.com predicts who will be the QBs when the carousel stops.  He starts with the teams he is most sure of and works down:

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected 2021 starter: Patrick Mahomes

I tried to type words to adequately describe Mahomes, and I couldn’t come up with anything. He’ll be back for the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected 2021 starter: Tom Brady

I feel like this guy has a future in football. Brady, who will turn 44 in August, is having a minor knee surgery this offseason, but he has already said he’s returning for his 22nd NFL season.

Green Bay Packers

Projected 2021 starter: Aaron Rodgers

The Packers are adamant about not trading Rodgers, which is logical given that he’s the reigning league MVP. He described his future following the season as a “beautiful mystery,” but a raise on the remaining three years of his current deal feels far more likely than a trade.

Seattle Seahawks

Projected 2021 starter: Russell Wilson

Since being drafted by Seattle in 2012, Wilson has missed precisely zero starts for the Seahawks. He’s an amazing player. That streak will continue, even if he’s frustrated with the organization.

Buffalo Bills

Projected 2021 starter: Josh Allen

After an ascendant 2020 campaign in which he threw 37 touchdown passes and completed 69.2% of his throws, Allen could make an MVP push in 2021.

Baltimore Ravens

Projected 2021 starter: Lamar Jackson

Jackson’s strong finish to the season was another signal that there are even more levels to his game ahead. The 2019 MVP has combined for 76 total touchdowns and 15 interceptions over the past two seasons.

Arizona Cardinals

Projected 2021 starter: Kyler Murray

Murray flirted with an MVP-type season for the first half of 2020 before fading down the stretch, as the Cardinals lost five of their final seven games. He should be even more lethal next season.

Tennessee Titans

Projected 2021 starter: Ryan Tannehill

Some people were skeptical that Tannehill could keep up his strong finish from 2019 into the 2020 season. Some people were wrong. He finished fourth in the league in Total QBR (78.3).

Los Angeles Chargers

Projected 2021 starter: Justin Herbert

The rookie Herbert took over as a surprise starter in Week 2 and kept the job the rest of the season, throwing 31 touchdown passes and just six picks. He could keep this job well past Week 2 of 2030.

Cleveland Browns

Projected 2021 starter: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield’s best season yet — he threw 26 touchdown passes and cut down on his turnovers on the way to the Browns winning a playoff game — could lead to a contract extension this offseason. He has already earned tons of respect in Cleveland.

Dallas Cowboys

Projected 2021 starter: Dak Prescott

The third round of negotiations is the charm for Dallas and Prescott, as I suspect the free agent winds up with a long-term deal this offseason, even if a franchise tag comes first to buy extra time. If Prescott plays on the franchise tag for the second consecutive year, he’ll make $37.7 million.

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected 2021 starter: Joe Burrow

The only way Burrow isn’t the Bengals’ Week 1 starter is if his surgically repaired knee requires more time to be ready for the season, but all indications suggest he’ll be ready to rock. The No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee in late November.

Atlanta Falcons

Projected 2021 starter: Matt Ryan

It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Falcons use the fourth overall pick in April’s draft on a quarterback, as they must evaluate the opportunity cost; they don’t plan on picking this high again in the near future, and Ryan is about to turn 36. Passing on a quarterback now might mean squandering their best chance at a topflight prospect at any point over the next few years.

Ryan, however, remains a solid starter who is still owed a substantial amount of money, making a trade not palatable just from a financial standpoint (separate and apart from the Falcons not likely wanting to deal him).

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected 2021 starter: Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger has already conceded that he’s prepared to restructure his contract, as his $41.25 million salary-cap hit is not viable during a year in which the cap could hover around $180 million. How much of a pay reduction he takes is to be determined, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s in line to start again.

Minnesota Vikings

Projected 2021 starter: Kirk Cousins

Cousins’ future has generated conversation for about five of the past six offseasons, but I really do take the Vikings at face value when they state their support of him for 2021. He’s a solid starter, and the Vikings likely feel internally that fixing their defense will go a long way toward pushing them back to the playoffs in 2021.

Las Vegas Raiders

Projected 2021 starter: Derek Carr

It feels like we’ve been wondering whether Carr’s time was over with the Raiders since coach Jon Gruden was hired, but the veteran has been a mainstay. He is one of those quarterbacks who threads a unique needle: He has moments of excellence that inspire confidence and rarely has abomination games that cost the team, but it still feels like we’re debating his status as the franchise’s future annually. With two years left on his current contract, it’s likely that Carr is back again.

San Francisco 49ers

Projected 2021 starter: Jimmy Garoppolo

This is an interesting one. Jimmy G has been a part of a 49ers team that has won a ton of games with him under center, yet this still feels like a much less than 100% certain scenario. His contract is at the juncture in which the team can get out from it without major financial penalty — it could trade or release him and save more than $23 million.

With the quarterback carousel spinning, everyone wants to connect Kyle Shanahan to any of the available options. But there has been enough messaging from the team lately to make me believe Garoppolo is the man for one more season (or more).

Philadelphia Eagles

Projected 2021 starter: Jalen Hurts

Hurts was the player I wasn’t sure whether to classify as a new or returning starter, as he started only the final four games for Philly in 2020. Alas, we’ll call him a returning starter with Carson Wentz now almost certain to be traded soon.

Hurts infused energy into Philly’s offense and an added element of rushing — he had 238 rushing yards in his three full games as the starter — with the usual strides to make for any young quarterback; his accuracy will improve after he completed just 52% of his passes last season.

Miami Dolphins

Projected 2021 starter: Tua Tagovailoa

Until Deshaun Watson is traded, many people will link Miami as a most logical suitor. For now, I believe Tagovailoa returns as the starter, with Miami instead focusing on surrounding him with elevated talent to allow him to grow. After all, he’s just a year removed from being the No. 5 overall pick in the draft.

Tagovailoa had his moments as a rookie starter, and he has plenty of natural tools with which to work. Ultimately, he’ll face unique expectations given his draft status, but Year 2 should look much better.

New York Giants

Projected 2021 starter: Daniel Jones

If this decision were cast in the court of public opinion, many would suggest the Giants ought to be digging into the quarterback market this offseason. However, there has been nary a whisper so far about the G-Men shopping for a signal-caller. (Yes, I know it’s early.)

While he is at times erratic and turnover-prone, the organization has a lot of investment in Jones’ development. There’s still potential here.

Denver Broncos

Projected 2021 starter: Drew Lock

New general manager George Paton brings a fresh set of eyes, with the most pressing question being whether Lock is a centerpiece of the franchise or the latest in a long line of Broncos quarterbacks on the merry-go-round of starters.

Turnovers and accuracy were both issues last season for Lock — and Denver reportedly sniffed around on a Matthew Stafford trade — so my confidence level isn’t significant here. But while we are recent witnesses to instant-impact rookie star quarterbacks, investing in a young player who has early struggles can pay off in a decided way if you have implicit belief in the skill set. I’ll bet on that in Denver.

TEAMS WITH NEW STARTERS

I’m forecasting 21 teams to keep their starters from 2021, which means there are 11 more to go. Let’s start with two locks at the top and get into the mysteries after that.

Los Angeles Rams

Projected 2021 starter: Matthew Stafford

While this move can’t be made official until the start of the new league year, the Rams are ready to push their chips back into the middle of the table with Stafford under center. The internal expectations have to be to make a Super Bowl run soon, given the steep price paid to acquire Stafford.

Detroit Lions

Projected 2021 starter: Jared Goff

I find it interesting that sometimes when a quarterback isn’t a surefire franchise-level-type player, we decry him as little more than a spare part. Is Goff one of the 10 or so best quarterbacks in the league? No. Is he a capable starter whom the Lions can turn to for a bridge season or two? He certainly is.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected 2021 starter: Trevor Lawrence

Losing is not a spearhead for success in the NFL, but the Jaguars are incredibly fortunate to have the opportunity to draft the prodigious Lawrence. Jacksonville has the No. 1 overall pick, and Lawrence is seen by many as the top QB prospect to come out of college in nearly a decade. Now, the Jaguars must right the ship around him. New coach Urban Meyer will help immensely.

New Orleans Saints

Projected 2021 starter: Jameis Winston

With Drew Brees’ retirement announcement imminent, the Saints will have to turn to a new full-time starter for the first time in what feels like forever. While Taysom Hill was the player to fill in for Brees this past season, Winston is a part of the team’s plans for 2021, per head coach Sean Payton, and there’s reason to believe the team will feel more comfortable with him heading into 2021 than it did when Brees got hurt last year. With more time to develop and build chemistry, Winston has a chance to revitalize his career. He’s a free agent, but we suspect he’ll get signed.

Carolina Panthers

Projected 2021 starter: Deshaun Watson

I’ve been on record forecasting Watson to Miami, but recently my tenor has changed with more support from the Dolphins for Tua Tagovailoa and the Panthers’ previous aggressive pursuit of Matthew Stafford. Carolina’s roster on defense took shape relatively quickly in 2020, opening its window to be aggressive sooner. New GM Scott Fitterer has the eighth pick as one of his chips to play in a deal to acquire Watson.

Houston has no interest in trading him away right now, but we know this has already been ugly. If you ultimately trade away a franchise quarterback, moving him to a team you play once every four years is preferred to an in-conference foe (assuming the offers are comparable).

Indianapolis Colts

Projected 2021 starter: Carson Wentz

There’s been plenty of smoke surrounding the Colts and Bears as landing spots for Wentz, as Indy would reunite him with Frank Reich, his former offensive coordinator. The Colts’ roster is ready to win right now, so entering the season with a rookie or otherwise unproven starter would be potentially missing out on a window to compete.

Wentz is radioactive at the moment after his dismal 2020 performance. Can Reich and his staff reconstruct the player who was once ascendant enough to earn a record-setting contract extension that no one questioned the Eagles for giving him? Count me among those who believe in Indy’s infrastructure.

New England Patriots

Projected 2021 starter: Marcus Mariota

The Patriots are among a group of teams that are too far from the top of the draft order to be a likely landing spot for the top-draft-prospect quarterbacks, meaning we’re examining other veteran options who could be logical fits. While a Cam Newton return isn’t totally ruled out, it’s an unlikely option. The 27-year-old Mariota is under contract for one more year with the Raiders but carries a cap charge of $10.725M, an unlikely tab for them to pay for a backup in a cap-tightened year.

Be it via a trade or cut, Mariota could find a new home this offseason … and the Patriots are a logical fit.

Washington Football Team

Projected 2021 starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Washington is in the same category as the Patriots: in need of a quarterback addition but too far down the draft order to count on that as the avenue to address it. Fitzy is about as well-traveled as any other player in the league over the past 15 years, but he continues to play at a strong enough level to merit starting consideration. It’s often a roller coaster with him under center, but he has an infectious energy that cannot be discounted. We saw it last year in Miami when he helped the team in a few gotta-have-it situations.

Houston Texans

Projected 2021 starter: Justin Fields

Having already accounted for a Deshaun Watson trade, we need to find his heir apparent. While I do not believe Fields will be available at No. 8 in the draft — a key part of any Watson-to-Carolina trade — Houston would at least have additional capital to move further up the board to select Fields, the Ohio State standout who could be the second quarterback off the board. Parting ways with Watson will be an exorbitantly tough pill to swallow, but Fields is the beacon of light toward the future that the Texans will need.

New York Jets

Projected 2021 starter: Zach Wilson

The Jets could build around Sam Darnold using the trove of draft picks they have both this year and next, but committing to him on the fifth-year option this offseason (which fully guarantees somewhere around $25M in 2022) is a heavier-handed investment than the team likely wants to make after an uneven start to his career.

The Jets must also evaluate the opportunity cost. The team is hopeful and believes a turnaround is coming soon, meaning a pick this high in the draft won’t be a certainty going forward. If they pass on a young quarterback now, and Darnold is not the long-term answer, the Jets’ avenue to quarterback stability is harder to find. And Wilson could be special.

Chicago Bears

Projected 2021 starter: Sam Darnold

Part 2 of the Jets prediction is what happens to Darnold. The Bears need to win right away or organizational changes seem imminent, and while Darnold has much to prove, he has supporters within the NFL that could create a trade market.

Why would Chicago be willing to commit to Darnold in a trade and (likely) a fifth-year option when the Jets wouldn’t? Simple. Bears GM Ryan Pace has to be much more focused on 2021 than life beyond it. Darnold represents a likely upgrade over what the Bears have in place, and there’s certainly a chance he could rise under different circumstances than what he had in New York. But honestly, it’s hard to peg the Bears’ next starter.

Even if you think QB RUSSELL WILSON isn’t going anywhere, don’t you have to put his certainty of being a Seahawk below some others like QB JUSTIN HERBERT of the Chargers?

2021 DRAFT

Daniel Jeremiah offers his second Mock Draft of the year.  He puts three rookie QBs into the NFC South to go with 44-year-old TOM BRADY:

With the Reese’s Senior Bowl, a blockbuster QB trade and even one high-profile pro day in the books since my first mock draft of the year was published, here’s my updated forecast for Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft:

1 – Jacksonville

Trevor Lawrence · QB

School: Clemson | Year: Junior

Trevor Lawrence’s pro day performance should cement his status as the best player in the draft. This is a no-brainer decision for the Jaguars.

2 – New York Jets

Zach Wilson · QB

School: BYU | Year: Junior

The Jets have a lot of options here, but I think the decision ultimately comes down to Wilson versus Sam Darnold. With a new head coach, they decide to start fresh at quarterback.

3 – Miami

Ja’Marr Chase · WR

School: LSU | Year: Junior

I flirted with giving the Dolphins one of the top offensive linemen here, but they are desperate for difference-making speed and playmaking ability on the outside.

4 – Atlanta

Justin Fields · QB

School: Ohio State | Year: Junior

I have Trey Lance ranked ahead of Fields in my top 50, but Fields’ athleticism could lead Atlanta to pursue a homecoming for the Georgia native.

5 – Cincinnati

Penei Sewell · OT

School: Oregon | Year: Junior

Kyle Pitts is an attractive option, but the Bengals need to make protecting Joe Burrow the priority.

6 – Philadelphia

Kyle Pitts · TE

School: Florida | Year: Junior

I don’t envision Zach Ertz being on the Eagles’ roster for the 2021 season. However, Philadelphia still ensures its QB1 — whomever that ends up being — has an outstanding duo at tight end in Pitts and Dallas Goedert.

7 – Detroit

Micah Parsons · LB

School: Penn State | Year: Junior

The Super Bowl showed us what speed and athleticism at the second level can do for a defense. Parsons brings those tools to Detroit.

8 – Carolina

Trey Lance · QB

School: North Dakota State | Year: Sophomore (RS)

Sitting behind Teddy Bridgewater for a season before taking over as QB1 in Year 2 could be the perfect situation for Lance.

9 – Denver

Caleb Farley · CB

School: Virginia Tech | Year: Junior (RS)

The Broncos recently released CB A.J. Bouye, so there’s a glaring need at the position. Farley is the best cornerback in the draft.

10 – Dallas

Patrick Surtain · CB

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys looked at an offensive or defensive lineman with this pick, but Surtain would be a welcome addition to the Dallas secondary.

11 – New York Giants

Gregory Rousseau · Edge rusher

School: Miami | Year: Sophomore (RS)

I know GM Dave Gettleman has let it be known that he wants to add playmakers on offense. At the end of the day, though, he’s not able to pass up the big, athletic edge rusher.

12 – San Francisco

Rashawn Slater · OT

School: Northwestern | Year: Senior

We’ll see what happens with Trent Williams in free agency, but even if the Niners are able to re-sign him, Slater could easily slide inside to guard.

13 – Los Angeles Chargers

Jaylen Waddle · WR

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

If the Chargers can address some of their offensive line needs in free agency, it would free them up to take a dynamic player to plug into their offense. They are already loaded with playmakers, but they don’t have a wide receiver with pure speed like Waddle.

14 – Minnesota

DeVonta Smith · WR

School: Alabama | Year: Senior

The Vikings have holes to fill on defense, but they could give Kirk Cousins a heck of a trio by adding Smith to a receiving corps that already includes Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

15 – New England

Jaycee Horn · CB

School: South Carolina | Year: Junior

There’s been a lot of scuttlebutt about the Patriots potentially trading Stephon Gilmore, whose contract expires after the 2021 season. In this scenario, New England looks to his alma mater to find the player who’ll replace him.

16  –  Arizona

Alijah Vera-Tucker · OG

School: USC | Year: Junior (RS)

Vera-Tucker has played tackle and guard, but I envision him sliding inside for the Cardinals. I’m sure USC offensive coordinator Graham Harrell would give his fellow former Texas Tech quarterback, Kliff Kingsbury, a glowing recommendation.

17 – Las Vegas

Kwity Paye · Edge rusher

School: Michigan | Year: Senior

Paye would give the Raiders some much-needed speed and athleticism up front. I’ve heard he’s going to put on a show at his pro day.

18  – Miami

Najee Harris · RB

School: Alabama | Year: Senior

After taking Chase at No. 3, the Dolphins double down on playmakers, reuniting Harris with former Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa. This would give Miami the makings of a dynamic, young offense.

19 – Washington

Christian Darrisaw · OT

School: Virginia Tech | Year: Junior

Washington is going to address the quarterback position one way or another. I’m guessing the Football Team goes with a veteran addition to free them up to upgrade the offensive line with this pick.

20 – Chicago

Kadarius Toney · WR

School: Florida | Year: Senior

The Bears are going to need more offensive playmakers whether pending free agent Allen Robinson is re-signed or not.

21 – Indianapolis

Greg Newsome II · CB

School: Northwestern | Year: Junior

Free agency could create a void at the position for Indy, and eams are very high on Newsome, a height-weight-speed corner.

22 – Tennessee

Jaelan Phillips · Edge rusher

School: Miami | Year: Junior (RS)

The Titans are desperate for pass-rush help. Phillips is the most naturally gifted edge rusher in the draft.

23 – New York Jets (from Seattle)

Ronnie Perkins · Edge rusher

School: Oklahoma | Year: Junior

Perkins is a very productive edge rusher who plays with physicality and tremendous effort.

24 – Pittsburgh

Jalen Mayfield · OT

School: Michigan | Year: Sophomore (RS)

The Steelers will be restructuring the offensive line this offseason with center Maurkice Pouncey retiring and left tackle Alejandro Villanueva potentially departing in free agency.

25 – Jacksonville (from LA Rams)

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah · LB

School: Notre Dame | Year: Junior (RS)

Urban Meyer has put an emphasis on speed everywhere he’s been. Owusu-Koramoah brings exactly that to the Jacksonville defense.

26 – Cleveland

Joe Tryon · Edge rusher

School: Washington | Year: Junior (RS)

Tryon opted out of the 2020 season, but he had really strong 2019 tape. Cleveland adds the former Washington pass rusher to complement Myles Garrett.

27 – Baltimore

Trevon Moehrig · S

School: TCU | Year: Junior

The Ravens have other needs to address, but the reason they’re so successful is because they draft the best player available. In this case, Moehrig fits the bill. He joins an extremely talented secondary.

28 – New Orleans

Mac Jones · QB

School: Alabama | Year: Junior (RS)

If the Saints do re-sign Jameis Winston, Jones would provide an additional option as they try to replace Drew Brees, who’s expected to retire. Jones is a fit as an accurate thrower and good decision-maker.

29 – Green Bay

Teven Jenkins · OT

School: Oklahoma State | Year: Senior (RS)

We saw how much of a toll injuries took on the Packers’ offensive line in the postseason. Jenkins can play tackle or slide inside if they need him to.

30 – Buffalo

Azeez Ojulari · Edge rusher

School: Georgia | Year: Sophomore (RS)

The Bills’ pass rush must be addressed this offseason. I view Buffalo as the best fit for free agent J.J. Watt, but Ojulari would provide some juice off the edge if the team is still looking for help at the position when the draft gets underway.

31 – Kansas City

Landon Dickerson · C

School: Alabama | Year: Senior (RS)

Dickerson, who’s recovering from an ACL tear, comes with durability concerns, but the Chiefs are in position to make this type of bet on the best interior O-lineman in the draft.

32 – Tampa Bay

Nick Bolton · LB

School: Missouri | Year: Junior

There are three good options at linebacker between Bolton, Tulsa’s Zaven Collins and LSU’s Jabril Cox. If the Bucs lose Lavonte David in free agency, I think Bolton would be a great replacement.