CHICAGO

QB JUSTIN FIELDS is tired of all the chatter.  Mike McDaniel of SI.com:

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields made waves this week when he unfollowed the team’s official account on Instagram.

With rumors galore about what the Bears will do with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, Fields had good reason for the decision to unfollow the account. Believe it or not, it has nothing to do with his stance as the team’s franchise quarterback moving forward.

“Man, bro, I’m glad we’re talking about it,” Fields told The 33rd Team Podcast on Wednesday. “Because people … why do people take social media so serious? Like I still mess with the Bears, this and that, I’m just trying to take a little break. I unfollowed the Bears and the NFL. I’m just not trying to have football on my timeline.”

Fields humorously likened his decision to a real-life example, as he poked fun at his teammate, wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, in the process.

“I know y’all mess with a girl … EQ, especially you. Just because you don’t follow the girl on IG don’t mean you not messing with her,” Fields jokingly said.

So what specifically was Fields tired of seeing? Well, you guessed it, the speculation about what the Bears will or will not do with the top pick in April.

“It’s either keep Fields. We want Fields … draft Caleb [Williams]. It’s like, bruh, man I’m tired of hearing the talk. I just want it to be over,” Fields added.

Time will tell what Chicago will do when the franchise is on the clock in a couple short months, but Fields plans to ignore the speculation until then with his future as the team’s starting quarterback in doubt.

PHILADELPHIA

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com puts together the decline of the Eagles late in 2023 and the suspension of “Director of Security” Dom DiSandro:

At a time when FS1 host Craig Carton has hinted at (but has not disclosed) a potentially salacious “real reason” for the implosion of the Eagles in 2023, long-time Eagles reporter Derrick Gunn has offered something more concrete, and far less juicy.

According to Gunn, the banishment of Eagles security chief Dom DiSandro from the sidelines after he made contact with 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw during a December 3 game against San Francisco threw coach Nick Sirianni off balance. Gunn posted on X that “Big Dom” “controls Sirianni emotions on sideline” and that “in his absence Nick gets in numerous arguments with players/coaches during games.”

The Eagles went into a free fall after the Big Dom sideline suspension, which lasted for the rest of the regular season. The Eagles won only one more game and surrendered the division title to the Cowboys. (After the lone victory — on Christmas over the Giants — Sirianni admitted he was “too tense” during the game.)

The Eagles lost in the wild-card round of the playoffs with DiSandro present. By then, however, the damage had been done. The Eagles were lifeless and punchless in a 32-9 embarrassment against the Buccaneers.

If accurate, the Eagles should rebound when 2024 rolls around, with DiSandro back on the job. Unless and until Big Dom lays hands on an opposing player and gets bounced from the sideline again.

The report also speaks to the significance of DiSandro to the operation. Above all else, an NFL head of security is a fixer. Usually, that means keeping problems from becoming problems in a subtle, low-key way.

For Big Dom, his best fixing apparently happens out in the open.

So this would want you to believe that the guy that shoved the 49ers player is the adult in the room.

ARIZONA

A change in Arizona’s personnel department.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Cardinals have made a move in their front office.

Per Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports, Arizona has parted ways with vice president of player personnel Quentin Harris.

Harris, 47, started with the Cardinals as a scout in 2008. He was promoted to director of pro scouting in 2013, director of player personnel in 2019, and VP of player personnel in 2021.

The Cardinals hired Monti Ossenfort as General Manager last year to replace longtime G.M. Steve Keim.

As a player, Harris entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2002 with Arizona and appeared in a total of 60 games with six starts.

LAS VEGAS

Sound strategy, bluster or outrageous threat?  ESPN.com:

Antonio Pierce says his Raiders will be channeling the “Bad Boy” Detroit Pistons when they play Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs as long as he is Las Vegas’ head coach.

In a recent episode of Maxx Crosby’s “The Rush” podcast, Pierce discussed how he got his team ready to play the Chiefs before they pulled off their 20-14 Christmas Day upset in Kansas City, which was the Chiefs’ last loss of the season before they went on to win Super Bowl LVIII.

In the week before the game, Pierce, then the interim coach, expressed to his team that they need to “hate the color red” and showed them videos of famous boxing and MMA fights and how the NBA’s Detroit Pistons approached playing Hall of Famer Michael Jordan in the late 1980s, with a tough defensive game plan devised by coach Chuck Daly.

“We’ve got the Jordan rules and what I’m calling, from now on as long as I’m here, the Patrick Mahomes rules,” Pierce said on the podcast. “So, you remember when Jordan was going through it with the Pistons, all those guys in the ’80s; before he became Michael Jordan, Air Jordan, the Pistons used to whup his ass. Any time he came to the hole? Elbows, feeling him, love taps. We touched him. We’re in the head, mentally, physically, emotionally, spiritually, I’m touching you. So, I showed those guys Jordan getting his ass whupped.”

In that Christmas Day game, the Raiders sacked Mahomes four times and finished with 10 quarterback hits. They also scored two defensive touchdowns, including a pick-six of Mahomes by cornerback Jack Jones. The four sacks is tied for the second-most of Mahomes in a game in his career. After that game, the Chiefs went on to win six straight, including four playoff games, culminating in their Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

Pierce, who was hired as the team’s head coach after the season, said on the podcast that the Raiders have given the NFL the “recipe” of how to beat the Chiefs.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid told NBC Sports this month that he texted Pierce a “thank you” for helping his team refocus by beating it that day. Reid sent the text as the Chiefs moved into the Raiders’ facility, their home before the Super Bowl.

“I just said, ‘Hey, beautiful facility, first of all. And I appreciate you kicking our tail because you taught us a lesson. You get complacent in this business, the margin between winning and losing is tiny,'” Reid said.

Pierce said the Chiefs using the Raiders’ facility at Allegiant Stadium before the Super Bowl will serve as “motivation” for his team. He said his team needs to win the AFC West if it is going to achieve its goal to become a consistent winner. The Chiefs have won the division the past eight seasons.

“We’ve got to win the division first. We’ve got to knock off the team in red. They’ve dominated for [eight] years. We’ve got to knock off the head of the snake: 15. We’ve got to do that first,” he said.

Mike Florio sounds the alarm:

There’s usually a difference between the things players and coaches will say among themselves and the things they will say publicly. In his recent appearance on Maxx Crosby’s podcast, new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce swung a sledgehammer at that wall.

Specifically, Pierce said the quiet part out loud regarding the inherently violent realities of football. In the post-#Bountygate NFL, however, certain things aren’t supposed to be uttered into a microphone.

Pierce talked openly about playing Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes the same way the Pistons used to play Michael Jordan, with relentless and gratuitous physicality. Pierce also said this: “We gotta knock off the head of the snake. Fifteen.”

That’s a risky comment from Pierce, or from any NFL player or coach. Back in 2004, five years before Congress forced the NFL to have an epiphany about head trauma, then-Browns defensive tackle Gerard Warren said this about then-Steelers rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, in the days preceding a Cleveland-Pittsburgh game: “One rule they used to tell me: Kill the head and the body’s dead.”

The NFL saw the comment and issued a warning to the Browns.

“We notified the team, including Gerard Warren, that if a player commits a flagrant foul after making such a statement, it may be a decisive factor supporting the suspension of the player, depending on the entire set of circumstances,” NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told ESPN.com at the time.

In 2012, after the NFL singled out the Saints for a cultural problem that permeated the sport, we all became aware of the cartoonish locker-room rants of Gregg Williams. One of his sayings was, drum roll please, “Kill the head, the body will die.”

We’re not trying to get Pierce in trouble with this. I like the guy. He deserves the job he has. But he needs to be careful about what he says, especially about a player like Patrick Mahomes. Trust me, I know what the backlash can be from suggesting, for example, that defensive players shouldn’t let themselves become paralyzed by fear of an unwarranted 15-yard penalty for hitting a quarterback who becomes a running back the way running backs get hit all the time.

Pierce didn’t specifically say “kill the head.” He said, “We gotta knock off the head of the snake. Fifteen.” Given that Mahomes is currently the most popular player in the NFL who isn’t dating Taylor Swift, that’s probably enough to get the NFL’s attention, either now or as the first of two 2024 Raiders-Chiefs games draws closer to kicking off.

BALTIMORE

Myles Simmons on who the Ravens have hired to coach the defensive line:

The Ravens have found their new defensive line coach.

According to Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports, Baltimore is hiring Dennis Johnson for the role.

Johnson was most recently Baylor’s defensive line coach, having joined the program in 2020.

Johnson replaces Anthony Weaver, who was previously the team’s assistant head coach/defensive line coach. Weaver departed the organization to become the Dolphins’ defensive coordinator.

BUFFALO

WR STEFON DIGGS can’t stay content, but Mike Florio says the smart money says he stays a Bill in 2024:

Will receiver Stefon Diggs be a member of the Bills in 2024? At least one sports book has Buffalo as the favorite to keep him.

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bills at -300 to retain Diggs.

If not the Bills, the Chiefs and the Texans are both at +1000. The Patriots, Cowboys, Bears, and Ravens are each at +1200.

Next are the Panthers at +1600, followed by the Falcons at +2000. The Colts, Cardinals, and Giants are at +2500 each.

Diggs has an $18.5 million salary and a cap number of $27.854 million for 2024. if he’s traded before June 1, the cap charge would be $31 million.

He could be released with a post-June 1 designation (or traded after June 1), with the cap charge being $8.849 million in 2024 and $22.247 million in 2025.

The final answer depends on what the Bills want to do — and on what Diggs wants. Four years ago, he wanted out of Minnesota and he quickly got his wish.

NEW ENGLAND

Coach Jarod Mayo will entrust DC DeMarcus Covington with calling the defensive plays.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Patriots will not have a Belichick calling the defensive plays this season.

New defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington said Wednesday that he will take over the defensive play calling in 2024.

“I do plan on calling plays,” he said, via Mark Daniels of the Boston Herald.

Steve Belichick, Bill’s son, previously held that role for the Patriots, but he left to run the defense at the University of Washington. Bill Belichick had a heavy hand on the defense during his 24 seasons in New England.

Covington said the defensive scheme will remain similar to last season when the Patriots ranked seventh in yards and 15th in points.

“I would say the defense wouldn’t change as much, but I think when you turn on the tape, I think what we want to see is a physical team. A team that plays with good discipline and fundamentals. A team that attacks the football and takes it away from the opponent,” Covington said, via video from Mike Reiss of ESPN. “That’s what we’re trying to look for with our defense. And a team that goes out there and plays together, for one another. That type of togetherness is what we’re looking for.”

– – –

Mike Reiss of ESPN.com cautions that it is not a given that the Patriots will take a QB at number 3:

– New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft has been part of 30 NFL drafts. He has pinpointed the 31st as unprecedented for his franchise, calling it the “most anticipated NFL draft of our tenure.”

Never in Kraft’s reign have the Patriots had a pick as high as they do this year — third overall, their highest since taking Patriots Hall of Fame defensive end/outside linebacker Willie McGinest with the No. 4 overall pick in 1994, months after Kraft purchased the franchise.

What they do at No. 3 will play a major role in defining the trajectory of a once-dynastic franchise. Kraft’s Patriots have spiraled downward the past two seasons — from 10-7 to 8-9 to 4-13. Gone is legendary coach Bill Belichick after 24 years with Jerod Mayo tapped as his successor.

The No. 3 pick sparks optimism for what Mayo said he expects to be a journey to help him “plant seeds and hopefully lead to the next dynasty.”

The possibilities are aplenty, and Patriots scouts view the 2024 quarterback class, along with offensive tackle, as deeper than some previous years.

Mayo said the plan will be “to take the best available player for the biggest need on the team — offensive line, receiver, quarterback; pick your [choice].”

Or perhaps another team presents the Patriots with a trade offer too good to turn down, providing a chance to parlay one selection into multiple picks for a team that is far from one impact player away from contending.

Should the Patriots take a quarterback at No. 3? Should they take the best non-QB available? Should they trade down from No. 3 to garner more assets?

Each scenario comes with significant risk and reward and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

“Our team has a tremendous opportunity to position itself right,” Kraft said.

Should the Patriots draft a quarterback?

One high-ranking Patriots executive recently shared the organization’s belief that without the right coach and quarterback, it will be a long road back to respectability.

Kraft says he believes he has checked the first box with Mayo, and if the No. 3 pick checks the second, it might be the perfect scenario — much like the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, who had their hopes pinned on drafting Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan.

“It was pretty clear-cut for us,” recalled former Falcons coach Mike Smith, who like Mayo, was in his first season and part of a collaborative pairing with general manager Thomas Dimitroff (Mayo is paired with director of scouting Eliot Wolf and a revamped personnel staff in New England).

“We were in love with Matt in terms of his skill set and what he brought with intangibles. It’s a situation where if there’s someone that you think is a franchise quarterback, you better take him. Because if you do it right, you’re not going to be picking in the top 10 again for a long time.”

Ryan lasted to the third pick and quickly emerged as the Day 1 starter, the Falcons made the playoffs, Smith was NFL Coach of the Year and Atlanta had a winning record the following season — the first time the franchise had back-to-back winning seasons.

Ultimately, Smith posted a 67-50 record over seven seasons as coach, which included four playoff berths.

“Everybody understands: It was then, and it is now, a quarterback-driven league,” Smith said. “If you have the right quarterback, you have a chance to be successful and be around for a while as a head coach and administration.”

But Smith also cautioned that teams can fall into the trap of forcing a QB pick. In the Patriots’ case this year, they might be selecting the third-best quarterback in the draft.

Is the QB class strong enough at the top to justify that approach?

Multiple ESPN analysts believe so, with Mel Kiper Jr. slotting North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye to New England in his first projection, with quarterbacks going 1-2-3 (USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Maye). Matt Miller envisioned a scenario in which Daniels becomes a Patriot. Field Yates targeted Maye for the Patriots in his 1.0 mock.

Former Patriots safety Devin McCourty, an analyst on NBC’s “Football Night in America,” said he believes that could be the best-case scenario for the Patriots — assuming they have conviction in one of them as a franchise quarterback.

“New England getting a guy in the building like that would change the outlook for every player, every staff member, and give them something to get excited about,” he said.

Should the Patriots take the best non-QB available?

ESPN senior NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. ranks Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. No.2 on his Big Board, behind only USC QB Caleb Williams. Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

There’s another way for the Patriots to create excitement without selecting a quarterback No. 3 overall. New England could instead pick the highest-rated offensive player at a different position such as Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt.

That approach — taking the best player available — has worked well for the Detroit Lions under third-year general manager Brad Holmes. The Lions were in a similar situation as the Patriots a few years ago — close to rock bottom and in need of an infusion of talent — and are now coming off a trip to the NFC Championship Game.

It was challenging to find many who were convinced the Lions had their long-term answer at quarterback after acquiring veteran Jared Goff in a 2021 trade with the Los Angeles Rams. But instead of selecting a QB early in the past three drafts, Holmes used top picks to support Goff: offensive tackle Penei Sewell (No. 7, 2021), receiver Jameson Williams (No. 12, 2022), running back Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12, 2023) and tight end Sam LaPorta (No. 34, 2023) among them. He also struck midround gold with receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (No. 112, 2021).

As the parts kept coming together, Lions radio analyst Lomas Brown, the former 18-year offensive tackle, took note of the impact it had on Goff.

“The key was to bring in the right pieces so Jared could take off and go to the next level, like he did. It really showed this year,” Brown said. “There was only so much he could do before that.”

Goff’s transformation reinforced Brown’s belief that teams often force their quarterback decisions before and/or without building the necessary infrastructure around him.

“Look at some of the misses over the years at the top of the draft. There have been so many. To me, picking a quarterback is like a crapshoot unless it’s somebody generational. I think they overhype these guys and push them up the ladder too much,” he said.

“I focus more on the other pieces, the things you can put around the quarterback. It’s like having a good foundation. You can’t build a house on a rocky foundation — it won’t stand up long.”

So, could Mac Jones be the Patriots’ version of Goff?

It appeared the Patriots had their quarterback of the future after taking Jones No. 15 overall in 2021. He had a promising rookie season under the guidance of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the Patriots made the playoffs.

But high-ranking team officials point to several Belichick decisions over the next two years — from offensive coaching changes to regrettable personnel moves — that contributed to sabotaging Jones’ development and crushing his confidence.

New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said Wednesday that “everything is on the table” when asked if he could envision a scenario in which Jones is the 2024 starter. And some within the organization seem hopeful Jones can make a U-turn in New England, but that hardly seems unanimous, which means Jones would have to win over many people.

“You have to give guys in the locker room a reason to believe you can win games with whoever you have at quarterback,” McCourty said. “You watch Kansas City, which was horrible at times this year, and those guys still believed because, ‘We have Patrick Mahomes.’ We had [Tom] Brady for a long time in New England and it was the same thing.

“This past season when you watched New England, across the board, it was a feeling of ‘No matter what we do, we won’t probably win because of what we have on offense.’ I’m not saying that was all Mac or [backup QB Bailey] Zappe’s fault, but it starts with who you have at quarterback.”

Should the Patriots trade down?

If Belichick were entering his 25th season as the team’s coach and de facto general manager in 2024, the odds of trading down would be higher than under the new regime of Mayo and the Wolf-led front office. Belichick was known for wheeling and dealing, having traded down in the first round of each of the past two drafts.

Nonetheless, as draft analysts assess the Patriots’ possibilities, some say another trade down to accumulate more players can’t be discounted.

The Patriots own one pick in each round. Using those to improve the roster is naturally the No. 1 priority, but the No. 3 pick also is a chip that could better position the Patriots — who aren’t expected to contend in the AFC in 2024 — to do that and acquire valuable future draft picks.

The Miami Dolphins took that approach in 2021, shipping the third overall pick to the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 12 overall pick, a third-rounder and first-round selections in 2022 and 2023. The 49ers paid the hefty price to draft Trey Lance with the belief he would become their franchise quarterback.

Lance never emerged (he has since been traded to the Cowboys), but the framework of the deal nonetheless provides a roadmap for what the Patriots — who need a lot more than the third pick to spark their rebuild — could expect from a team looking to trade up for a quarterback.

“It’s always tough to say before free agency what a team should do in the draft, but the Patriots’ offense is far away. They have plenty of talent on defense and special teams, but there are a lot of question marks on offense right now. One offseason isn’t going to fix everything,” said ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid.

“I don’t think Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe is the guy [at quarterback] moving forward. They need offensive tackles. They have no weapons. I’m not saying [trading down] is necessarily the right way to go, but with so many holes, it’s at least something they have to consider.”

How strongly the Patriots consider that type of scenario is a mystery at this point, in part because of the new structure of the front office and also because the draft is still more than two months away. The team’s primary process up till now has been evaluating prospects, not necessarily contemplating draft strategy.

The risk of the Patriots potentially trading out of the No. 3 spot is they lose out on a franchise quarterback — whether it’s Williams, Daniels, Maye or someone else.

But history shows the odds of three quarterbacks from one draft elevating to that level is unlikely.

“Everybody wants a quarterback, but you can’t force it,” Smith said. “When you force the decision-making tree, however you’re weighing it, and it’s not done through the processes that are in place, you’re probably going to miss on it.”

THIS AND THAT

UPCOMING QB DEALS

Joel Curry of CBSSports.com on what QBs could get shown the Benjamins this offseason:

Last year was a banner one for the quarterback market. Four different quarterbacks raised the bar for NFL salaries in 2023. Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert each took turns atop the NFL salary hierarchy before Joe Burrow became the standard bearer in early September as the start of the regular season was approaching.

Burrow received a five-year, $275 million contract extension, averaging $55 million per year, from the Cincinnati Bengals. The deal is worth up to $281.25 million thanks to $1.25 million of annual incentives in the extension years (2025 through 2029). Burrow has $219.01 million of salary guarantees, of which $146.51 million was fully guaranteed at signing. It’s the most for these contract metrics outside of the $230 million in Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed five-year contract with the Cleveland Browns. Burrow got an extremely player-friendly structure from the Bengals in which the first three new contract years average $61,320,327 per year.

Several quarterbacks are in line for lucrative contracts in 2024 although there won’t be the same musical chairs as the league’s highest-paid player. The elephant in the room is Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

This is Prescott’s contract year and he has leverage in negotiations for an extension despite a subpar performance when Dallas was upset by the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card playoff round as the NFC’s No. 2 seed. His $59.455 million is the NFL’s second highest 2024 salary cap number behind Watson’s $63.977 million. Prescott has a no-trade clause in his contract. He also has a provision preventing Dallas from designating him as a franchise or transition player in 2025 should he play out his contract.

Dak Prescott

DAL • QB • #4

The Cowboys really aren’t in a position to handle Prescott’s $59.455 million cap hit. There are currently $266.92 million in 2024 cap commitments, according to NFLPA data using offseason salary cap accounting rules where only the top 51 salaries (i.e.; cap numbers) matter. A little more than $4.902 million of unused 2023 cap space is being carried over to the 2024 league year. Preliminary projections put the 2024 salary cap between $240 million and $245 million. Dallas is projected to have a $19.5 million overage if the 2024 salary cap is set at $242.5 million.

The 2023 NFL MVP runner-up is scheduled to make $34 million in 2024 consisting of an unsecured $29 million base salary and a $5 million fifth day of the league year roster bonus due on March 17. A contract extension before the roster bonus vests is Dallas’ most viable option to significantly lower Prescott’s 2024 cap number.

Presumably, Prescott didn’t fight for the no-trade clause and franchise/transition tag prohibition not to use the provisions to his advantage in negotiations. If Prescott empowers his representatives to do as they see fit, the end result will likely be Prescott becoming the league’s highest-paid player while establishing new benchmarks for the most important contract metrics besides Watson’s $230 million fully guaranteed, even though last season ended prematurely on an extremely sour note.

It wouldn’t be surprising for Prescott’s camp to use Burrow’s average over his first three new years to justify $60 million per year. Overall, the top of the quarterback market increased in 2023 by 9.41% from 2022. A $60 million-per-year extension would be a 9.09% increase over Burrow’s deal.

Jared Goff

DET • QB • #16

Jared Goff has showed he wasn’t just a product of Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay’s offensive system. That was the narrative when Goff was thought to be a throw-in or salary dump in a 2021 offseason trade, where the Rams acquired Matthew Stafford, because McVay felt he needed an upgrade at quarterback despite 2016’s first overall pick signing a four-year contract extension, averaging $33.5 million per year, shortly before the 2019 regular season started. In addition to Goff, the Detroit Lions obtained a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 first-round pick and a 2021 third-round pick in this trade.

Goff completed 67.3% of his passes for 4,575 yards with 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions to post a 97.9 passer rating in 2023 while the Lions had a 12-5 record to win a division title for the first time in 30 years. Goff had a career high in completion percentage, which was the NFL’s seventh-best mark. He ranked second and fourth in the league, respectively, in passing yards and touchdown passes.

More importantly, the Lions advanced to the NFC Championship for the first time since the 1991 season. Goff had a measure of vindication by outdueling Stafford in a 24-23 win over the Rams in a wild-card playoff game.

Prior to losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game, reports surfaced that the Lions and Goff’s camp would work on a contract extension during the offseason to make him one of the league’s highest-paid players. Goff is scheduled to be paid $27,950,064 in 2024, the final year of his contract, on a $32,950,064 salary cap number. The $27,950,064 consists of a $22,950,064 2024 base salary, which includes the $975,000 in escalators Goff earned because of his 2023 performance, and a $5 million second day of the 2024 league year roster bonus due on March 14.

Goff’s 2023 season was statistically comparable to his 2018 campaign that led to the Rams making him the league’s third-highest-paid player on par with then-Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers following a poor outing in Super Bowl LIII. In 2018, Goff connected on 64.9% of his passes for 4,688 yards with 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions to compile a 101.1 passer rating.

Goff’s camp may feel that putting him in the same place in the NFL salary hierarchy as his first extension is warranted. Jackson is the league’s third-highest-paid player. He agreed to a five-year, $260 million deal, averaging $52 million per year, with the Baltimore Ravens shortly before the start of the 2023 NFL Draft last April. There are $185 million of overall guarantees in Jackson’s contract where $135 million is fully guaranteed. The $135 million fully guaranteed at signing includes an NFL-record $72.5 million signing bonus.

Whether Detroit’s idea of one of the NFL’s highest-paid players means Goff joins Burrow, Herbert, Hurts and Jackson in the $50 million-per-year club remains to be seen. The average yearly salary of the league’s 10 highest-paid players isn’t that far behind. It’s a little more than $48 million per year with the average contract length being 5.4 new years. The average guarantees for the top 10 are just over $181.5 million with slightly more than $131.25 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Baker Mayfield

TB • QB • #6

Baker Mayfield’s contract year couldn’t have gone any better. He took a modest one-year, $4 million “prove-it” deal worth up to $8.5 million through incentives from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to compete with Kyle Trask to replace Tom Brady as starting quarterback. Mayfield never looked back after winning a training camp battle with Trask.

A third consecutive NFC South title was won with a 9-8 record. Mayfield resurrected his career with season-bests of 4,044 passing yards (ninth in the NFL), 28 touchdowns passes (seventh in the NFL) and a 64.3% completion percentage. The Buccaneers advanced to the divisional playoffs for just the third time in 21 years with a wild-card game win over the Philadelphia Eagles before losing to the Lions.

In the two playoff games, Mayfield threw for 686 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 48 of 77 pass attempts (62.3%) for a 106.3 passer rating. He is the only Buccaneers quarterback to ever throw for 300-plus yards and at least three touchdowns in a playoff game, which 2018’s first overall pick did in both postseason contests.

Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said Mayfield had earned the right to return in 2024 after being eliminated from the playoffs. The interest is mutual as Mayfield has expressed a desire to stay put. Mayfield doesn’t appear to be headed for a franchise tag that would keep him off the open market. All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. reportedly is the favorite for this designation.

The Buccaneers should be willing to pay Mayfield in the Geno Smith neighborhood at a minimum. The Seahawks signed Smith to a three-year, $75 million contract, averaging $25 million per year with $40 million in guarantees where $27.5 million was fully guaranteed at signing, in March. The deal is worth as much as $105 million through salary escalators for a maximum average of $35 million per year.

Mayfield may have higher salary expectations than a Smith-type deal. Seeking more than Daniel Jones got from the New York Giants last March wouldn’t be too surprising. Jones signed a four-year, $160 million contract with $104 million in guarantees, of which $81 million was fully guaranteed at signing. At $40 million per year, Jones is tied as the NFL’s 10th-highest-paid player. Jones’ contract is worth up to $195 million thanks to somewhat realistically achievable incentives and salary escalators for a $48.75 million per year maximum value.

Kirk Cousins

MIN • QB • #8

Kirk Cousins was arguably playing the best football of his 12-year NFL career when he tore his right Achilles in a Week 8 contest against the Packers. The Minnesota Vikings have salary cap incentive to get a done deal quickly if Cousins is going to return.

The one-year extension worth $35 million Cousins signed in 2022 included voiding 2024 and 2025 contract years for cap purposes. A 2023 contract restructure tacked on voiding 2026 and 2027 contract years to create $16 million of 2023 cap space. All four years void when the 2023 league year ends on March 13.

The Vikings will have a $28.5 million cap charge without a new deal in place by March 13 thanks to these four dummy years. The $28.5 million becomes a sunk cost for the Vikings once voiding occurs even if Cousins is subsequently re-signed. A franchise tag can’t be used on Cousins because voiding occurs after the March 5 deadline to use the designation.

Cousins has consistently capitalized on his circumstances for maximum financial gain ever since joining the Vikings in 2018 as an unrestricted free agent on the NFL’s first lucrative fully guaranteed veteran contract. The three-year, $84 million deal worth up to $90 million through incentives made Cousins the league’s highest-paid player at $28 million per year. A departure from this approach would be surprising.

Merely adjusting Cousins’ soon-to-be-expiring $35 million extension for salary cap inflation would put him in the $41 million-per-year neighborhood. A fully guaranteed contract has been the norm for Cousins in his dealings with the Vikings. According to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, the Vikings aren’t willing to give Cousins another fully guaranteed deal. A shorter-term contract may be in order for Cousins, who will turn 36 before the 2024 regular season begins, under the circumstances.

Tua Tagovailoa

MIA • QB • #1

Tua Tagovailoa didn’t get a contract extension after his third NFL season like Burrow and Hebert, the other quarterbacks taken early in the 2020 Draft. The Miami Dolphins giving Tagovailoa an extension was out of the question since his 2022 season was cut short because of concussions he suffered.

Health wasn’t an issue for Tagovailoa in 2023. Tagovailoa was on the field for 1,045 of Miami’s 1,098 offensive plays last season. He threw for a career-high and league-leading 4,624 yards. Tagovailoa also set career highs with 29 touchdown passes and a 69.3% completion percentage, both fifth in the NFL. His 101.5 passer rating was also the league’s fifth-best mark. A Pro Bowl berth was earned for the first time in Tagovailoa’s career.

Tagovailoa expressed confidence in getting a new deal at the Pro Bowl Games earlier this month. He is scheduled to make a fully guaranteed $23.171 million in 2024 on his fifth-year option.

Eclipsing the five-year, $255 million extension, averaging $51 million per year Hurts signed with the Eagles last April, may have some significance to Tagovailoa. Hurt’s deal is worth as much as $270 million because of salary escalators. Hurts finished his college career at Oklahoma after losing his quarterback job to Tagovailoa at Alabama after starting for two straight years.

Quarterbacks are more likely than any other position to get contract extensions after three years if selected in the first round. Nine of the 28 players who received new deals over the 10 years since 2014, when 2011 first-round picks first became eligible for extensions under the rookie wage implemented by the 2011 NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, have been quarterbacks. Offensive tackle is next with four extensions.

Trevor Lawrence

JAC • QB • #16

This means a contract extension from the Jacksonville Jaguars could be on the horizon for Trevor Lawrence, 2021’s first overall pick. Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke called Lawrence the team’s long-term quarterback and said that an extension would get done at the right time last month.

The Jaguars had a disappointing 2023 season while Lawrence was slowed by injury. The playoffs were missed with a 9-8 record after an 8-3 start to the season. Head coach Doug Pederson recently mentioned that Lawrence’s ball security must improve. He has 60 career turnovers (39 interceptions and 21 fumbles lost) in his three NFL seasons.

Customarily, first-round quarterbacks who have gotten extremely early extensions become one of the league’s three highest-paid players upon signing. That’s been the case in seven of the nine times there have been quarterback extensions three years into rookie contracts. Doing the same with Lawrence would put a deal between Jackson’s $52 million and Herbert’s $52.5 million per year.

Jordan Love

GB • QB • #10

Green Bay’s comfort with Jordan Love taking the reins at quarterback despite an extremely limited track record was the impetus in granting Aaron Rodgers’ request to be traded to the New York Jets. Love had only thrown 83 passes heading into the 2023 season.

The Packers hedged their bets by signing Love to a one-year, $13.5 million extension worth up to $22.5 million through salary escalators before the May 2 deadline to pick up the 2020 first-round pick’s fully guaranteed $20.272 million fifth-year option for 2024. His 2023 compensation was $7.5 million more in the new deal than he was scheduled to earn in the fourth year of his rookie contract.

Love validated Green Bay’s faith in him. He completed 64.2% of his passes for 4,159 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions to post a 96.1 passer rating. Love took a big step forward over the second half of the season. He threw 18 touchdown passes and just one interception in the final eight games while the Packers went 6-2 to secure a playoff berth.

Love was the best quarterback on the field in Green Bay’s shocking wild-card game win over the Cowboys and more than held his own in a divisional playoff loss against the 49ers. The opposing quarterbacks, Prescott and Brock Purdy (49ers), were NFL MVP finalists. 

Love earned $5 million of the $9 million salary escalator because of his 2023 performance, playtime and Green Bay’s success. His 2024 base salary goes from $5.5 million to $10.5 million.

The expectation is the Packers and Love’s camp will start working on a contract extension after the 2024 Draft in late April. It wouldn’t be a surprise for Love to target more than the $50,271,667 per year ($150.815 million over three years) Rodgers got in 2022 in his final deal with the Packers. Love was more productive last season than the four-time NFL MVP was in 2022 when the Packers missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record.

2024 DRAFT

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com offers his second Mock Draft which is perhaps noteworthy for letting LSU QB JAYDEN DANIELS fall past the Patriots at 3 to the Giants at 6:

With the start of the NFL Scouting Combine just around the corner, here’s my second projection of the year for Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. I’m anxious to see official testing numbers from this year’s crop of prospects at the combine. We will have some risers and fallers coming out of Indianapolis, like we do every year, and then the start of free agency will further shake things up.

One thing to note before you start reading below: I’m not against making some trade projections in my final mock draft, but I won’t start entertaining those potential scenarios until we get closer to the end of this process.

1  Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Caleb Williams     USC · QB · Junior

There will be a lot of debate about what the Bears should do with this pick leading up to the draft, but I still think Williams makes the most sense for them here.

2   Washington Commanders

Drake Maye         North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

I’m sure Washington will have attractive trade offers for this pick, but new general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn get their quarterback of the future.

3  New England Patriots

Marvin Harrison Jr.         Ohio State · WR · Junior

In this scenario, the Patriots go the veteran route to fill the need at quarterback, which frees them up to trade the No. 3 overall pick or take the uber-talented Harrison.

4  Arizona Cardinals

Malik Nabers                     LSU · WR · Junior

Arizona needs to get more dynamic in the passing game. A healthy Kyler Murray paired with Nabers would be fun to watch.

5  Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Alt                                   Notre Dame · OT · Junior

This feels like a statement pick, seeing how it’ll be Jim Harbaugh’s first selection since becoming the Chargers’ head coach. Alt would take over at right tackle in short order. Keep in mind that new GM Joe Hortiz came from Baltimore, where eventual Pro Football Hall of Famer Jonathan Ogden started at guard his rookie year before taking over at tackle.

6  New York Giants            

Jayden Daniels                LSU · QB · Senior

As noted above, I don’t make trade projections in mock drafts this early in the process, which is why Daniels is still available at No. 6. I wouldn’t rule out the Giants trying to move up for a quarterback, but in this scenario, Daniels falls into their lap.

7  Tennessee Titans

Olumuyiwa Fashanu           Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)

The Titans have a lot of needs on their roster, but landing a massive upgrade at tackle is the right way for them to go with this top-10 pick.

8  Atlanta Falcons

J.J. McCarthy                        Michigan · QB · Junior

A lot of people around the NFL expect the Falcons to be aggressive when it comes to finding a quarterback in this year’s draft. They could trade up or, as they do in this case, stay at No. 8 and bet on McCarthy’s traits.

9  Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze                         Washington · WR · Senior

To me, it will be a home run draft for the Bears if they pick Williams at No. 1 and then land Odunze here. This would transform their offense.

10  New York Jets

Taliese Fuaga               Oregon State · OT · Senior

I tried to connect different players to the Jets, but I keep coming back to the same one. Fuaga is a plug-and-play right tackle.

11  Minnesota Vikings

Dallas Turner                       Alabama · Edge · Junior

I wouldn’t rule out the Vikings drafting a quarterback early, but I’m not sure they’ll have the ammunition to trade up for one. With Danielle Hunter heading for free agency, they address the need for pass-rush help.

12  Denver Broncos

Jared Verse                      Florida State · Edge · Senior

Denver is another potential landing spot for a quarterback. In this exercise, though, they complement some of the young talent in the secondary with a difference-maker up front.

13  Las Vegas Raiders

Terrion Arnold                  Alabama · CB · Sophomore (RS)

Arnold is a big-time playmaker who is just scratching the surface of his potential. This would be a perfect marriage of need and talent.

14  New Orleans Saints

JC Latham                         Alabama · OT · Junior

Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out for the Saints with 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning so far. New Orleans needs to readdress the tackle position. The run on Alabama players continues.

15  Indianapolis Colts

Nate Wiggins                    Clemson · CB · Junior

Wiggins is going to put on a show at the NFL Scouting Combine and might be drafted earlier than this slot. The Colts have proven they value traits, and this Clemson product is the big-time-traits corner in this year’s draft.

16  Seattle Seahawks

Byron Murphy II                  Texas · DT · Junior

Leonard Williams is a pending free agent, but even if the Seahawks work out a deal with him, Murphy would be a nice complement on the interior defensive line.

17  Jacksonville Jaguars

Quinyon Mitchell                      Toledo · CB · Senior

The Jaguars need to get better in the secondary. Mitchell provides a nice mix of consistency, elite speed, toughness and instincts.

18  Cincinnati Bengals

Brock Bowers                            Georgia · TE · Junior

File this under fits that I selfishly want to see happen. It’s highly unlikely Bowers falls this far in Round 1, but let’s just pause and dream for a moment about seeing him joining forces with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.

19  Los Angeles Rams

Jackson Powers-Johnson            Oregon · IOL · Junior

The Rams get one of the steadiest players in the draft. Powers-Johnson can anchor their offensive line for the next decade.

20  Pittsburgh Steelers

Troy Fautanu                                  Washington · OT · Senior

Pittsburgh invests in the offensive line in Round 1 for the second year in a row. Fautanu fits the physical identity the Steelers are looking to create. He can play anywhere on the line, but it would be fun to watch him line up next to 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones.

21  Miami Dolphins

Laiatu Latu                                         UCLA · Edge · Senior

Latu would give the Dolphins three outstanding pass rushers with Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips already in place. Keep in mind: Miami could lose Andrew Van Ginkel in free agency.

2  Philadelphia Eagles

Ennis Rakestraw Jr.                             Missouri · CB · Junior (RS)

The Eagles have to address the pass defense this offseason. Rakestraw brings playmaking ability and toughness.

23  Houston Texans (via CLE)

Brian Thomas Jr.                                       LSU · WR · Junior

Bringing in Thomas to join Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Houston would rival any team in the league for the best trio at wide receiver.

24  Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Guyton                                          Oklahoma · OT · Senior

With Tyron Smith headed for free agency, the Cowboys can have 2022 first-rounder Tyler Smith man one tackle spot while Guyton takes the other.

25  Green Bay Packers

Cooper DeJean                                           Iowa · CB · Junior

DeJean just feels like a Packers player. He could play any position in the secondary. The speed and athleticism are legit, as we will see at the NFL Scouting Combine.

26  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Adonai Mitchell                                        Texas · WR · Junior

The Bucs go with the power forward-like receiver to potentially replace Mike Evans, who is ticketed for free agency. If you want to see what Mitchell is capable of, turn on the tape of the College Football Playoff semifinal against Washington.

27  Arizona Cardinals  (via HOU)

Darius Robinson                                  Missouri · Edge · Senior

Robinson is a versatile, explosive lineman who had a really good week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

28  Buffalo Bills

Chop Robinson                             Penn State · Edge · Junior

The production won’t wow you, but the traits are there. The Bills could suffer some losses off the edge in free agency with contracts expiring for Leonard Floyd and A.J. Epenesa. Robinson could be the new pass-rushing partner for Greg Rousseau.

29  Detroit Lions

Zach Frazier                                West Virginia · IOL · Senior

The Lions’ starting guards are scheduled to reach free agency this offseason, and this feels like Dan Campbell’s type of player. Frazier, a state-champion wrestler in high school, could step right in at guard and eventually move to center.

30  Baltimore Ravens

Amarius Mims                              Georgia · OT · Junior

The Ravens have grown accustomed to seeing really talented players fall into their lap. Snagging Mims at No. 30 would qualify as another example of this.

31  San Francisco 49ers

Graham Barton                            Duke · IOL · Senior

A left tackle at Duke, Barton would slide inside to guard and has the athleticism to do all that is required in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme.

32  Kansas City Chiefs

Troy Franklin                                 Oregon · WR · Junior

The Chiefs get a big-time vertical complement to 2023 rookie sensation Rashee Rice.