The Daily Briefing Thursday, January 12, 2023

Field Yates of ESPN.com has a cheat sheet:

@FieldYates

Current known vacancies:

Head coaches: Broncos, Cardinals, Colts, Panthers, Texans

GMs: Cardinals, Titans

Offensive Coordinators: Commanders, Jets, Rams, Titans

Defensive Coordinators: Browns, Falcons

– – –

Two more teams in the Sean Payton Derby.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

Sean Payton’s offseason of flirtation with prospective employers will include two more teams.

The Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans have requested to interview the former Saints head coach, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Wednesday. The Cardinals and Texans join the Denver Broncos as teams who have requested to meet with Payton. All three have received permission to interview Payton from the Saints, Rapoport added.

Payton’s contract with the Saints — from whom the coach walked away following the 2021 season — does not expire until the end of the 2024 season, meaning any of the three teams interested in Payton would have to agree to a trade in order to secure the services of the Super Bowl XLIV-winning coach.

“Denver’s the first team; I was able to have a conversation with their owner,” Payton told Good Morning Football and FOX Sports’ Peter Schrager this past Sunday. “That’s kind of the protocol. It would go team to Saints and then the interview process can’t officially begin until [Jan. 17] so that’s really where it’s at.”

The Cardinals fired head coach Kliff Kingsbury after four seasons with the team, in which he posted a 28-37-1 record and led Arizona to one playoff appearance. Houston fired Lovie Smith following the conclusion of the regular season, the Texans’ second consecutive termination of their coach in as many seasons.

Tom Pelissaro notes that while not everyone is on record with liking QB KYLER MURRAY – Payton is:

@TomPelissero

Mentioned in story with @RapSheet last weekend on looming changes with the #Cardinals that Sean Payton had been doing homework on the Arizona job. He’s a Kyler Murray fan, and with no GM in place, it’d be an opportunity to set up the whole operation.

Mike Florio is impressed:

Three of the five teams that have coaching vacancies have received permission to interview former Saints coach Sean Payton. And that’s very good, for both Payton and the Saints.

It’s the coaching equivalent of the Deshaun Watson trade. The Saints wouldn’t be granting permission to the Broncos, Cardinals, and Saints without a loose understanding as to what it would take to acquire his rights. And if Payton can in turn create a sense of competition for his services, his price will go higher and higher and higher — especially since there’s no salary cap for coaches.

The situation quite possibly will drive the league office batty, given that it pushes the balance of power back toward the league’s coaches. Or at least toward the best of them. The best of the best should be paid more than they get. The best of the best are also worth the first-round pick or whatever else it will take to get him.

A great coach can make a huge difference for a team. Payton has proven to be a great coach. Brilliant, creative, works hard and works smart. Gets results. Makes the most out of the guys he has.

He’s now potentially making the most out of his opportunity to find a new team. And more quite possibly will be interested.

The Cowboys have pursued him in the past. The Cowboys supposedly are sticking with coach Mike McCarthy, no matter what.

But what if Cowboys owner Jerry Jones suddenly faces the prospect of having Payton down the road in Houston, turning around the Texans? That could be the thing that gets Jerry to pivot from McCarthy to Payton. To speak now or forever hold his peace. To finish the job that he started four years ago.

Yes, this one is interesting. And it could get a lot more interesting in the coming days and weeks. Especially if the Cowboys lose on Monday night.

– – –

More on the coaching carousel from Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com:

What is your biggest early surprise of the coaching carousel?

Graziano: Same as last year: I don’t understand why more teams aren’t interested in talking to Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He has previous head-coaching experience, he’s well-respected by players and fellow coaches, and his Buffalo defenses have consistently ranked as the best or among the best in the league since he has been there. Especially with the league pushing for teams to hire more minority head coaches, I wonder why someone with Frazier’s credentials isn’t a hotter candidate.

Fowler: Agreed on Frazier, though the Colts, a natural fit, still could reach out. I believe Indy is waiting until next week to request some of the coaches preparing for the wild-card round this week. The Bengals’ tree hasn’t been shaken yet — coordinators Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo are solid candidates, and the light interest is a surprise. And the lack of a shocking job opening is perhaps the most surprising. Typically there’s at least one doozy. But Monday’s moves by Arizona and Houston were largely expected. Maybe the post-wild-card cycle will produce a shakeup. But for now, the league is left with five openings — half of last year’s amount.

Is Sean Payton to the Broncos viewed as a good match within league circles?

Fowler: Sean Payton is a good match in that he’s the best coach available and Denver — which offers stable ownership and a roster with talent — is drawn to that. But some around the league are skeptical about whether Payton wants to tie his future to Russell Wilson, who struggled mightily in 2022, though he improved late in the year. A massive six-year deal can assuage any concerns if Payton wants to wait out Wilson and develop another quarterback eventually. The organization has shown little patience with head coaches, six of whom have been fired since 2009. John Fox was the only coach to last longer years, and he got to a Super Bowl. Payton might opt for more stable ground elsewhere.

Graziano: I’m starting to believe Denver might want Payton more than he wants them, though that Walmart money might end up talking before all is said and done. And it was only a couple of years ago that everybody thought Payton and Wilson were trying to team up in New Orleans, so maybe he sees something in Wilson he believes he can make work. There’s widespread belief Payton will want to bring his own personnel people with him, maybe even his own GM, so you wonder what that would mean for current Broncos GM George Paton. I’d also be surprised if Payton did anything before we got more clarity on the availability of the Los Angeles jobs.

What do you expect the Cardinals to look for in a coach? Is personnel control on the table for that coach, given GM Steve Keim’s exit?

Graziano: I don’t think anything’s off the table. For example, I expect them to at least look into Payton, which would mean giving the coach personnel control. Because Arizona is looking to hire both positions, the coaching candidate list could take a little while to shake out while they figure out what to do at GM. I do expect defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to be a candidate, though he will have to show them a plan for who’s going to run the offense and how to get the most out of Kyler Murray, right?

Fowler: This one is simple: Maximize Kyler Murray. Challenge him, hold him accountable and give him an offense that will help him shine. Questions about Murray’s leadership and work ethic have never been louder. He’s not going anywhere and is immensely talented, so perhaps a new voice will bring out his best. Because Kliff Kingsbury’s coaching style was more laid-back, the Cardinals could reverse course and go with more intensity. Giving up full personnel control to a new coach seems like a reach here, because that hasn’t been Arizona’s style in the past. Owner Michael Bidwill is known as very hands-on, even meddling. That can present challenges for a new coach. But the right coach, with the right power dynamic, could perhaps change that.

What are you hearing about the attractiveness of the Texans job within the industry? Do back-to-back one-and-dones (David Culley, Lovie Smith) give any potential candidates pause? Does Houston not having the No. 1 pick matter to top coaching candidates?

Fowler: Sneaky-good job. The Texans will have an estimated $47 million in cap space and 11 picks in the draft, including two selections in the top 12. Players from the rookie class, such as Dameon Pierce and Jalen Pitre, flashed major potential. Coming off back-to-back coach firings — a bad look, to be sure — the Texans know and seem to acknowledge they must change their ways. They can’t afford the status quo. Some top candidates will have this job ranked higher than the average fan might think, though not too high, given the well-documented culture problems there.

Graziano: If you were a coaching candidate who was interested in Houston because it had the No. 1 pick and you knew (and agreed with) the decision about which quarterback to take, then the Texans falling to No. 2 would give you at least some pause, because it introduces some uncertainty into the mix. But Houston still has two picks in the top 12, so it has some basis for a strong draft foundation, as well as a lot of cap space. So it’s not completely unattractive. Still, the fact that the Texans are hiring a new head coach for the third offseason in a row would make me wonder, and I do believe there are candidates who would look elsewhere or even consider staying in their current jobs rather than taking one where there’s that much risk of being out after a year.

What’s the latest with Carolina’s search?

Graziano: Former Colts and Lions coach Jim Caldwell interviewed Monday, and my understanding was that interim head coach Steve Wilks was set to interview there Tuesday, but most of Carolina’s external early list is young offensive coordinators. The Panthers have put in requests to interview Buffalo’s Ken Dorsey, Philadelphia’s Shane Steichen, Detroit’s Ben Johnson and the Giants’ Mike Kafka. Carolina is determined to fix its longstanding problem at quarterback, and for that reason it’s possible it could look to one of the up-and-coming offensive coordinators to oversee that process.

Caldwell is an interesting name, because he brings the offensive background as well as previous NFL head-coaching experience. Wilks had the team playing well down the stretch and for a while looked like the favorite to keep the job, but his candidacy is losing a bit of steam. The biggest thing for him if he’s trying to sell the Panthers on keeping him is probably his plan for fixing the offense, which of course requires figuring out quarterback.

Fowler: To your point about quarterbacks, Dan, those OC names have been on the Panthers’ radar for a while. As the logic goes, the Panthers knew they had Wilks as a prime candidate with a defensive background, so they went heavy on offense with the rest of the pool. Wilks has a solid offensive staff to sell David Tepper, to be sure. But multiple people I’ve spoken to around the league think the young coordinators have their advantages for a QB-starved franchise. Frank Reich is interviewing for the head-coaching job but could end up a strong coordinator candidate. The Panthers could start knocking out an interview per day, either in-person or via videoconference.

Jim Harbaugh’s name is again being mentioned around potential NFL coaching vacancies. Based on what you observed from Harbaugh as the 49ers’ coach, what would need to happen for his return to the league to be a success?

Fowler: Synergy with the general manager will be key. Harbaugh is a unique personality and needs someone who understands his vision. He brought longtime NFL personnel man Tom Gamble with him to Michigan, and some people around the league believe Harbaugh would bring Gamble with him to his new spot. That’s why jobs such as Denver and Indy are interesting in relation to Harbaugh, because those jobs have well-liked executives in place with George Paton and Chris Ballard, but the presence of a Harbaugh could change the dynamic. Harbaugh needs a place with an established defense and a quarterback Harbaugh believes he can either revive or put over the top. The physical style of play will come with him. And he’ll need to assemble an impressive staff.

Graziano: I do think quarterback is the key, as it is for just about any candidate for any one of these jobs. It doesn’t necessarily have to be an elite, top-level quarterback — Harbaugh did a lot of winning in San Francisco with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. But it does have to be someone he can count on and build around. And then that word, “synergy,” is a big one, not just with the general manager but with ownership and others in the building.

One thing you do always hear about Harbaugh is that his personality is unique, and that as great a coach as he might be, not everyone who works with him has always thought they meshed with him. I’ve been told those types of concerns were a factor with Vikings ownership when he went to interview there last year. I do wonder if the recent stories about what’s going on with Michigan and NCAA investigators give Harbaugh more urgency to land one of these jobs this year. If so, the question will be whether any of the teams with openings feel as urgent about the need to hire him.

Other head-coach/GM/coordinator rumblings

Graziano:

Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon impressed the Texans in interviews last year and should be a strong candidate for the job again this year. If he does get that job, I’ve been told one of the names to watch for his offensive coordinator is Patriots tight ends coach Nick Caley, who has a connection with Texans GM Nick Caserio from Caserio’s time in New England.

Interim GM Ryan Cowden and player personnel director Monti Ossenfort are both internal candidates for the Tennessee Titans’ GM job, though they will consider external candidates as well. And in Arizona, in the wake of Steve Keim’s departure, it’s believed that VP of player personnel Quentin Harris and vice president of pro personnel Adrian Wilson are both candidates for the GM job. The two have been essentially splitting those duties since Keim stepped away, and it’s possible they both stay and take on larger roles. Cardinals team owner Michael Bidwill has a history of promoting from within, which is another reason not to dismiss Vance Joseph as a candidate for head coach.

I do expect some changes at the coordinator level in New England, and I believe there’s a real chance Bill Belichick turns to a former assistant, such as Bill O’Brien, to run the offense. Even if that happens, my sense is Belichick would likely find other roles on the coaching staff for Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, who ran the offense this year. I’d be surprised if either of those guys was actually fired, as opposed to reassigned to different roles.

Two playoff teams have head coaches whose job status is the source of speculation in spite of the fact that they’re in the postseason. Those are the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy and the Chargers’ Brandon Staley. There’s outside chatter that one or both of those guys could be in trouble if their team doesn’t make a deep playoff run. Cowboys team owner Jerry Jones strongly backed McCarthy in public comments Tuesday morning, and Jones’ recent history with coaches and with late-season comments on their job status indicates we can take him at his word. But an ugly loss Monday Night in Tampa could theoretically change his mind, and people who monitor these things would not be surprised. As for Staley, a one-and-done playoff performance could lead the Chargers to contemplate a change there after just two years, especially if they believe they have a shot at someone like Payton. Just worth watching, is all.

Fowler:

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has permitted his staff to search for other jobs without resistance, multiple sources told ESPN, another sign that the Super Bowl-winning coach might not be on the sidelines in 2023. McVay told coaches in a staff meeting that he doesn’t know what he will do next year and won’t block coaches who want to explore other opportunities. While teams can’t prevent position coaches from interviewing for coordinator jobs, according to league policy changes in 2020, teams maintain the ability to block lateral moves. In this case, the Rams will not do that. The meeting only strengthened the belief among some that McVay will step aside from his Rams duties. He’s expected to take time away in the coming days or weeks to sort out his future. McVay’s offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, accepted the same job with the University of Kentucky on Tuesday. His defensive coordinator, Raheem Morris, is interviewing for two head-coaching jobs.

After talking to several industry sources this week, the sentiment I hear a lot is this: If Payton says no to Denver, then Harbaugh will be the lead candidate. Still much to play out, with Denver waiting to talk to Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and others. But I’ve continued to hear that Denver has done a lot of research on Harbaugh, talking to people who have worked with him in the past to gauge his coaching style. One official from a team searching for a head coach believes Harbaugh wants the Colts job. No word yet on whether Harbaugh plans to speak with Indy brass, but the connection is obvious for the former Colts quarterback.

Former Commanders offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who was fired Tuesday, landed on shaky ground in Washington in recent weeks because of late-season struggles. The move wasn’t shocking to people in the building. Washington finished 20th in total offense, which isn’t bad considering the quarterback flux there. Stories like this probably didn’t help. But Turner will have another job in short order. He’s a well-respected coach. … Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is a name people around the league are watching, as Josh McDaniels could make a potential change there. But there’s also a case for him to stay, in that the defensive personnel — especially in the backfield — wasn’t good enough. That, coupled with Graham’s good reputation around the league, could help his cause.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Mike Florio on the amazing possibility that QB JARED GOFF merits an extension:

Two years ago this month, the Lions got two first-round picks and a third-round pick, both for sending quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Rams and taking on the ill-advised contract that L.A. had given to quarterback Jared Goff after the 2018 season. It felt like a two-year arrangement in Detroit, with Goff holding the spot until the guarantees disappeared and the contract could be ripped to shreds and Goff replaced with the team’s next quarterback.

Along the way, something happened. Goff improved. Goff played like the guy who had earned his contract, not like the guy who had made that agreement an albatross for the Rams.

Now, two seasons later, the Lions plan to keep Goff. But it’s suddenly not that simple.

Goff has two years left on his contract. His performance this year actually makes the deal very friendly to the team.

Goff is due to make $25.65 million in 2023. For 2024, the final year of this deal, Goff will make $26.65 million.

At a time when the top of the market has shot north of $50 million, that’s a bargain for the Lions.

And, yes, it’s easy to say that Goff already has received the bulk of his money. But that doesn’t matter. What matters is that he has two years, at a total payout of $52.3 million.

It’s a bargain. Enough of a bargain to get Goff clamoring for a raise, if he wants.

Maybe the team will persuade him to wait a year. Regardless, getting paid in the NFL is all about striking while the iron is hot, and the skittle has quickly begun to sizzle for a player whom the Rams couldn’t wait to get rid of after the 2020 season.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

The Cowboys do not play a high level game on grass. Logan Mullen of Audacy:

WIth their loss Sunday to the Washington Commanders, the Cowboys fell to 1-4 this season when playing games on grass. They beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 17 on the natural surface, but dropped games to the Commanders, Eagles, Packers and Jaguars. The Washington and Jacksonville losses were some of the Cowboys’ worst displays of the year.

Garrett pointed out that problem Sunday on NBC, and noted it could be a problem in their first postseason matchup — an outdoor game on grass against the Bucs.

Asked about the trend in his weekly interview on “The K&C Masterpiece,” Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones didn’t pay much mind to it.

“There are (multiple) schools of thought,” Jones said. “At the end of the day, you play the game where it’s scheduled to be played, and we’ve got to go out and play our best football to win a football game. I don’t think the guys let it get into their heads as to whether it’s on grass or on turf. I just think you suit ‘em up, you put on your cleats and you go play football.”

Interestingly, this has been an issue for the Cowboys for a while. According to team reporter Patrik Walker, the Cowboys haven’t had a winning record on grass since 2017.

NEW YORK GIANTS

QB DANIEL JONES does not want to be one and done.  Jordan Ranaan of ESPN.com:

After his first three seasons resulted in him sitting at home this time of year, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones says he isn’t content with simply making the playoffs. He wants more. He’s not viewing a surprising first playoff appearance as playing with house money.

The underdog and sixth-seeded Giants play on the road against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon in their first trip to the playoffs since 2016.

“We’re definitely not satisfied just to make the playoffs. That’s not how we see it as a group,” Jones said. “We were confident dating back to training camp and knew what we were able to accomplish. We are by no means satisfied to be in the playoffs. We expect to play well and to win and that is our expectation every week. That hasn’t changed.”

The Giants (9-7-1) reached the playoffs in their first year under coach Brian Daboll, even if it wasn’t necessarily expected. General manager Joe Schoen and Daboll tempered expectations publicly this summer.

But behind the scenes, it appears to have been different.

“[Daboll] said it from Day 1: We’re going to be humble about it; we’re going to go about our work while everyone sleeps on us,” fourth-year safety Julian Love said.

Love is also in the playoffs for the first time in his career. He said in a radio interview Tuesday that he’s confident in his team and believes they can make a run in the postseason.

It begins in Minnesota, where the Vikings beat the Giants three weeks ago on a 61-yard Greg Joseph field goal as time expired. So they’re aware nobody is sleeping on them anymore.

“Now that we’re in the playoffs, no one is under the radar. … Teams know who we are,” Love said.

Jones, 25, in particular has shown the league what he can do under the tutelage of Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka. He finished seventh in the NFL in QBR (60.7) and had perhaps his best game of the season in the previous meeting against the Vikings. The fourth-year quarterback threw for a season-high 334 yards in the 27-24 loss in Minnesota.

The playoffs are an opportunity to reach that next level. This is where Giants fans have seen their team do damage in the past. Twice Eli Manning led the wild-card Giants to a Super Bowl victory.

Jones told ESPN on Wednesday that he plans to reach out to Manning later this week for advice. The two are still friendly after playing together during the 2019 season.

In the meantime, Jones has asked around to others about what to expect in the postseason.

“I’ve spoken with some of the older guys, some of the coaches,” he said. “A lot of guys talk about the speed of the game and that increasing in the playoffs and just how critical each play is. And it’s one or two plays here or there that’s going to make the difference. In a regular-season game, maybe it’s a handful. But in the playoffs, these are good teams that you’re competing against. It’s one or two plays that’s going to make the difference. So, we understand that. We understand what’s at stake. We’re going to stick to what’s gotten us here. We’re going to stick to the routine, the preparation that we’ve been putting in.”

That is the Daboll influence. He has been steadfast about maintaining a sense of normalcy. He called the first practice day of this playoff week a “normal Wednesday.” He referred to Sunday’s matchup as the “next game.”

Unlike many of his players, this is not Daboll’s first playoff game. He has been an assistant in 30 postseason games with the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. His teams have a 23-7 record, and he’s 5-0 in Super Bowls.

So the Giants coach knows a little something about making a run.

“It just goes back to being consistent and doing the things that we need to do to prepare for this game. That’s really what it comes down to,” Daboll said. “How we play on Sunday and how we prepare during the week, those are the most important things.”

And maybe it can lead to another game next week and the week after that.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

Cowboys OC Kellen Moore is on the Panthers’ dance card.  Anthony Rizzuti of USA TODAY has the list:

The Carolina Panthers’ search for a new head coach might be expanding with yet another young offensive play caller.

As first reported by Todd Archer of ESPN on Wednesday morning, the Panthers have requested an interview with Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

The Boise State quarterback spent six years in the NFL between the Detroit Lions and the Cowboys. He appeared in just three games, all in 2015, passing for 779 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 58.7 percent of his throws.

Moore moved to the sidelines in 2018, as a quarterbacks coach for Dallas. He was promoted to his current post as offensive coordinator just one campaign later in 2019.

Under Moore, the Cowboys finished the 2022 season ranked 11th in total offense (354.9 yards per game) and fourth in scoring (27.5 points per game). The 34-year-old is now the eighth known candidate in the Panthers’ search—joining Steve Wilks, Jim Caldwell, Frank Reich, Shane Steichen, Ben Johnson, Ken Dorsey and Mike Kafka.

TAMPA BAY

This from Joseph Vincent on Twitter:

@BoredFilm

Tom Brady has beaten 5 #1 seeds on the road in his playoff career. 5.

Montana did this one time. Manning never did it.

This has been todays edition of, ‘Insane things Brady pulled off that no one else will ever match.’ Title is a work in progress.

Of course, he’s at home against a 5.

This:

@NFLonCBS

Tom Brady recent season-by-season results

2013 did not win Super Bowl

2014 WON SUPER BOWL

2015 did not win Super Bowl

2016 WON SUPER BOWL

2017 did not win Super Bowl

2018 WON SUPER BOWL

2019 did not win Super Bowl

2020 WON SUPER BOWL

2021 did not win Super Bowl

2022 ???

And this:

@JoeBucsFan

Strange line of questioning today at news conferences about how the Bucs could have mailed it in when they fell to 3-5. … … Where in sports does a team mail it in at 3-5 when the first place team (Falcons) is 4-5?

AFC WEST

DENVER

The Denver ownership is Stanford-centric.  This from Adam Schefter:

@AdamSchefter

Former Stanford HC David Shaw interviewed today with the Denver Broncos about their head coaching job, sources tell ESPN. Shaw spent nine years in the NFL, from 1997-2005, with the Eagles, Raiders and Ravens, and is interested in returning to the pro game.

LAS VEGAS

PK DANIEL CARLSON may have had the greatest kicking season of all-time when degree of difficulty is factored in.  This from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson broke an impressive NFL record in the 2022 season.

Carlson made 11 field goals of 50 yards or longer during the regular season, setting a new NFL record.

The previous record of 10 50-yard field goals was shared by three kickers: Blair Walsh, who did it in 2012, Justin Tucker, who did it in 2016, and Brandon McManus, who did it in 2020.

Carlson made his 11 field goals on 13 attempts from beyond 50 yards and is now 24-for-29 in his NFL career on field goals from that range.

Carlson made 69 of 73 total kicks.  His misses were FGs of 46, 52 and 56 yards, plus 1 PAT.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com says that agent Roquan Smith negotiated a good deal for LB ROQUAN SMITH:

The Ravens traded for linebacker Roquan Smith knowing two things. One, he was in the last year of his rookie contract. Two, he has no agent.

That seemed like something the Ravens shouldn’t want, given their inability to work out a long-term deal with quarterback Lamar Jackson, another self-represented player in the last year of his rookie deal. But the Ravens and Smith worked out a contract, one that Smith publicly deemed to be “fair.”

Here’s a look at the details of the new Roquan Smith contract, for a source with knowledge of the terms.

1. Signing bonus: $22.5 million.

2. 2023 base salary: $4.5 million, fully guaranteed.

3. 2024 option bonus: $12 million, fully guaranteed.

4. 2024 base salary: $6 million, fully guaranteed.

5. 2025 base salary: $15 million, guaranteed for injury at signing, and fully guaranteed on fifth day of the 2024 league year.

6. 2026 offseason 90-man roster bonus: $4 million, earned on fifth day of 2026 league year.

7. 2026 base salary: $16 million.

8. 2027 offseason 90-man roster bonus: $4 million, earned on fifth day of 2027 league year.

9. 2027 base salary: $16 million.

The five-year, $100 million deal has a $45 million fully guaranteed at signing, with a practical guarantee of $60 million. To avoid owing Smith $60 million, they’d have to cut him before March 2024, resulting in $45 million for one season of football.

The deal also forces the Ravens to make an early decision in each of the final two years of the deal, by forcing them to pay him $4 million if he’s not released. It’s a wrinkle that every veteran contract should have, since it takes away the team’s ability to squat on a player’s contract until the money elsewhere has dried up.

It’s a great deal for Smith, given the physical risks inherent to the position he plays. And it does indeed prove that the Ravens will do a fair win-win deal with an unrepresented player.

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

Brian Peacock with a plan for the Colts after noting that there is no higher grade in Indy than a “blue card”:

@BDPeacock

Colts gave Trey Lance the “blue card” in 2021 and still need a QB. I find it hard to believe Ballard wouldn’t at least call the 49ers about Lance. What would he offer? Idk. Entirely possible Lance had a higher draft grade than Stroud/Levis. Cost a lot less than trading up to 1 🤔

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com hears chatter that QB TOM BRADY to Miami is still “on the table”:

Last year, the Dolphins were ready to move on from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and to welcome quarterback Tom Brady (along with coach Sean Payton). It ultimately fell apart, thanks in large part to the filing of a landmark race discrimination lawsuit by former Dolphins coach Brian Flores on the very same day Brady announced his “retirement.”

This year, Brady will be a free agent, unrestricted and unfettered in his quest for a new team. If he wants one.

Could he once again be in play for Miami? As one source with general knowledge of the various dynamics regarding all things Brady (a source who firmly believed Brady could land with the Dolphins back in 2020) put it recently, the possibility is “definitely on the table.”

It’s unclear whether the Dolphins would keep or move on from Tagovailoa. He’s due to make $4.738 million in 2023, the final year of his rookie deal. The Dolphins could keep him on the roster, as the backup to Brady — if Brady does indeed finally join the Dolphins.

Tagovailoa also could be traded, if the Dolphins were to find a partner willing to assume the concussion risks that are now very real when it comes to putting Tua on the field.

It becomes a strange tension point between player and team. Tua, who has played very well this year when he has played, will likely want to keep playing. The fact that he will have gone three weeks without playing following his latest concussion shows how delicate the question will be in the coming months. It also suggests that the organization possibly has decided that Tua’s time in South Florida has ended.

Miami may be ready to move on from being the focal point for a national concussions-in-football debate that had largely subsided before Tagovailoa’s issues in 2022. Whether it’s Brady or someone else, the quarterback situation in Miami has become one of the biggest stories to watch in the 2023 offseason.

Florio does not, yet, discuss whether or not the coach would be Mike McDaniel, Sean Payton or someone else.

NEW ENGLAND

Bill Belichick had no problems acceding to the demand/request of owner Robert Kraft that he do something about the offensive coaching.  Tom Curran of NBCSportsBoston:

What’s gonna happen at THE MEETING? When the Patriots were 6-4 back in November, nobody was even wondering. W

But during the team’s 2-5 post-Thanksgiving slide, pockmarked by mind-blowing mistakes, offensive ineptitude and a sometimes-raging quarterback, the importance of that question grew.

After the season, when owner Robert Kraft sat for his annual post-season debriefing with Bill Belichick, would Belichick share a plan for 2023 to get Kraft’s team back where it was? Competent. Buttoned-up. Entertaining.

Or would Belichick resist the notion that 2022 was bad at all? And if he did, would that signal an unsolvable impasse which might end with Belichick and Kraft divorcing over irreconcilable differences?

THE MEETING, I am told, has happened. There is no impasse. The Patriots are on to 2023 with Belichick acknowledging 2022 wasn’t ideal and being amenable to changes.

Don’t expect a dog-and-pony show announcing firings or who’s coming in for an interview. Belichick isn’t going to put anyone’s head on a spike for the pleasure of the masses. But my understanding is offensive coaching reassignments are going to happen and several offensive coaches are under consideration for the Patriots’ 2023 staff.

Belichick is just getting going on this. That’s one of the issues with having one person doing so many jobs. There’s a vested interest in the immediate success of the on-field product that can come at the expense of future planning.

Until Sunday at 4:15 p.m., the Patriots were a potential playoff team. And if they got in and the offense started to click? Well, maybe changes weren’t necessary after all. So, while Belichick played the role of Charlie Brown waiting for the Great Pumpkin to arrive in the form of productive offense, all future planning was on hold.

And now they get to it.

One important facet of the meeting: Did Belichick need persuading to change course on offense or did he go in knowing changes were necessary? My understanding is that no persuading on the part of Kraft was necessary.

And that’s important in that the “meddling owner” trope stings Kraft. Both he and Jonathan Kraft have stressed publicly that they stay out of Belichick’s way. They’ve said on the record that Belichick has earned the latitude to run the football team as he sees fit.

Kraft made sure that was clear in 2019 and 2020 when Belichick was deciding to exit the Tom Brady era. And he made sure to do that after 2017 when the mistaken notion that he forced Belichick to trade Jimmy Garoppolo was reported and still lives on.

Who comes in to fix the offense? What’s the title? When does he start? Again, presume that Belichick will slow-play any and all announcements. He’s probably not giving anyone the satisfaction of knowing a change was made.

But unless there’s a change of heart, changes are coming.

NEW YORK JETS

It’s not good for an assistant to be deliberated on.  Zach Rosenblatt of The Athletic:

@ZackBlatt

Mike LaFleur has NOT been fired as #Jets offensive coordinator, per source. The report out there is inaccurate.

The team is still deliberating.

Is this what he’s talking about at ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jets are in the market for a new offensive coordinator.

According to multiple reports, Mike LaFleur is out after two seasons in the job. Some of those reports indicate that other teams have inquired about LaFleur’s availability in recent days, so he will now be available to pursue other opportunities.

The Jets went from 6-3 to 7-10 and out of the playoffs largely because of their offensive ineffectiveness and the team did not score an offensive touchdown over the final three weeks of the regular season.

They started three different quarterbacks in those games and settling that position will be essential to the success of anyone that the Jets hire to replace LaFleur. Central to any thoughts at the position will be what to do with Zach Wilson after a dreadful second season that saw him get benched in favor of Mike White.

THIS AND THAT

SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND GAMBLING INSIGHTS

From Pete Truszkowski of YahooSports.com:

The NFL regular season is over. We have reached the wild-card round of the playoffs. With 18 teams now eliminated, we only need to focus on 14 more as the playoffs whittle them away. Instead of going through 16 games on a weekly basis, we only have to comb through six games for the upcoming weekend.

At least five starting quarterbacks will be making their NFL playoff debuts this weekend. Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones are all in line to get their first-ever postseason start. Depending on how injury situations shake out, that number could get all the way up to seven.

The Dolphins ruled out Tua Tagovailoa, who remains in concussion protocol. Currently injured backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has playoff experience with Minnesota, but if he isn’t available, third-string rookie Skylar Thompson will make his postseason debut.

Lamar Jackson obviously has playoff experience for the Baltimore Ravens, but his status is up in the air for Sunday’s matchup with the Bengals. If Jackson can’t start, either Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown will make their playoff debuts under center for Baltimore.

First-time playoff starters struggle

Last season, five quarterbacks made their NFL playoff debuts: Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Mac Jones and Jalen Hurts.

Burrow and Carr went head-to-head in the wild-card round, with Burrow’s Bengals coming out on top. However, since the two first-time quarterbacks went head-to-head, their data isn’t relevant to the sample at hand.

Murray and the Cardinals faced Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Jones and the Patriots went up against Josh Allen and the Bills. Hurts’ Eagles faced off against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Those three quarterbacks went 0-3 straight up and 0-3 against the spread. Arizona lost by 23 as a 3.5-point underdog. New England lost by 30 as a 4.5-point underdog. Philadelphia lost by 16 as a 7.5-point underdog. The Eagles trailed 31-0 after three quarters. Overall, first-time quarterbacks were outscored 112-43. They failed to cover the spread by an average of nearly 18 points.

It’s not just last year. Overall, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a quarterback with previous playoff experience are a disgusting 14-35-1 against the spread. They cover the spread just over 28% of the time.

The most recent quarterback to buck the trend was Baker Mayfield in 2020, when he went on the road and beat Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 5.5-point underdog. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule, but for the most part, playoff experience matters quite a bit.

Daniel Jones is in the line of fire

As mentioned above, we can safely assume that five quarterbacks will be making their playoff debuts this weekend.

Unfortunately for those looking to back the trend and fade first-time playoff starters, four of those quarterbacks will be going head-to-head. Justin Herbert will be making his playoff debut, but he’s going up against Trevor Lawrence, who is also appearing in the playoffs for the first time. The same applies to the Seattle-San Francisco matchup featuring Geno Smith and Brock Purdy.

That leaves us with Daniel Jones. Jones is in his fourth NFL season with the Giants, but this is his first time making the playoffs. The Giants will head to Minnesota, where the Vikings are 3-point home favorites against New York. Kirk Cousins will make his fourth career playoff start. He is 1-2 both straight up and against the spread.

Jones has four years of experience, so it’s not like he’s a rookie. However, that hasn’t mattered much. People might also think that Jones is built for this moment, as his personality and demeanor has been compared to Eli Manning, who had plenty of playoff success. However, even Manning was shut out by the Carolina Panthers in his first playoff start.

Other situations at play

Injuries have made a few quarterback situations rather uncertain.

If anyone other than Teddy Bridgewater starts at quarterback for the Dolphins this week, this trend will apply to the Miami quarterback as well. Bridgewater has one career playoff start, losing but covering the spread in Minnesota’s loss to Seattle in the 2015 playoffs. That was the infamous Blair Walsh missed field goal game.

Miami is a 10.5-point road underdog against Buffalo. Josh Allen will be making his seventh career playoff start for Buffalo. He is 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread.

Baltimore is a 6.5-point underdog against Cincinnati this weekend. If Lamar Jackson is unable to go, this trend will also apply to whoever is under center for Baltimore.

Jackson is 1-3 both straight up and against the spread in his playoff career. On the other side, Joe Burrow is 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 straight up in the playoffs. Of course, all of this came last season in Cincinnati’s run to the Super Bowl.

BROADCAST NEWS

We wondered who NBC would put with Al Michaels on this week’s second Super Wild Card Weekend game.  The answer is Hall of Fame Coach Tony Dungy.  Jimmy Traina ofSI.com:

The broadcast crews for NFL wild-card weekend are set.

SATURDAY:

Seahawks-49ers, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox: Joe Davis, Daryl Johnston

Chargers-Jaguars, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC: Al Michaels, Tony Dungy

SUNDAY:

Dolphins-Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Giants-Vikings, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox: Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen

Ravens-Bengals, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth

MONDAY:

Cowboys-Bucs, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

All of the crews have worked together this season except for one: Michaels and Dungy, who have the call of Chargers-Jaguars on Saturday night.

If you’re wondering why Michaels’s broadcast partner this season, Kirk Herbstreit, isn’t calling the game, it comes down to Herbstreit being an employee of Amazon (and ESPN) and not NBC.

An NBC spokesperson told Sports Illustrated, “Early in the season, we decided to have Tony, who has called many football games, serve as the analyst for one of our NFL wild-card games. This is an NBC Sports presentation, so the plan was always to use an NBC Sports broadcaster in the booth.”

NBC ran into trouble last season when it used Drew Brees, who had never called an NFL game, on the Bengals-Titans playoff game. Brees was simply not ready for the assignment, and reviews across the board were ugly.

Dungy has some experience calling games and will definitely perform better than Brees, but he does not have any experience calling games with Michaels, so who knows how they will mesh.

It would’ve been nice if, after suffering through a pretty brutal Thursday Night Football schedule, Herbstreit had been rewarded with the playoff game, but that would’ve required a separate deal between NBC and Herbstreit and permission from ESPN.

Speaking of ESPN, Buck and Aikman also suffered from a subpar schedule this season, so it’s nice to see them get rewarded with the sexiest game of the weekend. Cowboys + Tom Brady is the perfect formula for big viewership.

Richard Dietsch of The Athletic talked to Al Michaels:

Al Michaels recently completed his 37th year calling an NFL prime-time package, a season that was particularly notable given his role as the frontman for Amazon Prime Video’s $13.2 billion NFL live-game streaming experiment. Michaels will call the Chargers–Jaguars playoff game Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC before, as he says, “Rip Van Winkling until August.”

Earlier this week, I sat down with Michaels for an extended chat on his first season in the booth for Amazon and how he saw Joe Buck’s role in calling the Jan. 2 “Monday Night Football” game in which Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin was injured. You can listen to the interview in full here as part of the Sports Media Podcast.

(This interview has been edited for length and clarity.)

How would you analyze Year 1 for you at Amazon?

It probably, in a way, exceeded my expectations. I thought (the production) would look good, but I didn’t think it would necessarily be that good. For that, I credit (executive producer) Fred Gaudelli and a lot of the people that he brought over. If you go back a year or so, Amazon didn’t have any infrastructure. … I knew once they got Fred involved in this thing, it was going to look big. Obviously, they didn’t want any kind of a rinky-dink, second-rate production. Amazon was totally into this thing completely. … I think they were very happy with the way it turned out because frankly, and it’s not a brag either, I’d put our production of the way it looked up against any network production this year.

You’ve done Super Bowls, the biggest games, etc. That said, you still want compelling, exciting games on Amazon. This year, you had a couple of duds. There are some who suggested you were ticked off at the competitiveness of some of these games and let us know about that on air.

I think I’m to the point in my life and career, having watched sports since I was 6 years old, I feel what the crowd feels. The Denver-Indianapolis game (in) Week 4 was a dreadful game. No other way to describe it. No touchdowns. In fact, at one point during the game, I said to (analyst) Kirk (Herbstreit), “Is it possible this game could be so bad that it’s actually good?” He’d never heard that from a partner and went, “No!”

We’re going to overtime and there’s a shot of maybe a thousand people walking out of the stadium. Then an overhead shot of people going to the parking lot. Kirk said, “I can’t believe it’s overtime and they are leaving.” I said they’d seen enough. Sometimes you just have to beat the traffic. So, look, was that snarky? I guess, in a way. But you can’t tell me that didn’t reflect the feelings of a lot of people, probably the majority of people watching that game. …

A lot of people said, “Al’s bored, Al’s pissed off that he’s doing this.” Not the case. Monday nights, Sunday night, I did things like this. Maybe not to that degree, but I try to echo the feelings of what the fan feels because I’m a fan.

Do you hear anything from Amazon management about this?

From the Amazon people, nothing but support. I think they understood what this was. We’re making the most of it. I mean, you just can’t oversell something. Do you want me to sell you a 20-year-old Mazda? That’s what you’re asking me to do. I can’t sell you a used car. … I’ve kind of gone down that road a little bit in games that have been bad in the past. But this game was horrifically bad. What were you supposed to do at that point? And away I went.

How did you feel your dynamic was with Kirk?

I thought it worked out very well because what he did this year was astonishing to me. I mean, he would do a game on Thursday night. Then he would fly out after the game. He would go from, say, Green Bay to Bozeman, Montana, to have meetings on Friday morning at 9 (a.m.) local time. Then he’d get up on Saturday and do a three-hour (“College GameDay”) show for ESPN and then … fly to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, or Austin or wherever he was going and do a game that night. It was astonishing. This was something that to me is unparalleled in the history of our business, to be able to do it and do it well. He is tremendously prepared.

When he came in, a lot of people said, “Well, he doesn’t know the NFL.” I said, “Hold on a second. Football is football.” Of course, we know there are differences between pro and college. But Kirk knows that, too. … As the year went by, our pacing got better to where we wanted to go. It was never an issue to the point where it was a problem. But he’s a perfectionist. I’m a perfectionist. We wanted this thing to be as perfect as it could be.

We knew you were going to get a playoff game this year, and Chargers-Jaguars turns out to be an excellent playoff game. It’s a nice coda for you for the season, right?

No question. This was part of the deal that we made at NBC. … A lot of the people I worked with this year at Amazon, it’s not like I was going into a totally mysterious operation with people I didn’t know. I’ve worked with a lot of these people. It’s a game, and just on a different platform. We’re back on the NBC platform instead of the Amazon platform. I’m excited about it.

When I saw the possibility of this game winding up on NBC, I was excited about it because we had Jacksonville a couple of weeks ago against the Jets. … I found them to be a very entertaining team and they certainly were down the stretch. Living in Los Angeles, obviously, I know a lot about the Chargers and have had a number of their games through the years. … I’m looking at this game and thinking this is one of the spotlight games of this weekend.

You have faced pretty much every situation a play-by-play person could face during a career. But what Joe Buck faced on Jan. 2 with Damar Hamlin was uncharted territory. What you were thinking about when you watched Joe and Troy Aikman and Lisa Salters and that broadcast?­

When you’re in a situation like that, what you have to understand is that the only information you can get has to be from sources you can trust. Those obviously start in the truck with the producer. In the case with Joe — I thought Joe and Troy did a great job with this — they were very human about this. We all felt the same way. Everybody wants to have the latest information, but nobody could get the latest information at that point. They’re saving a guy’s life on the field. There’s not much more to be said at that point. You don’t know anything. Anything else would be ridiculous speculation.

I know ESPN took a little bit in the neck (for Buck reporting on-air that the teams were told they’d have five minutes to warm up before resuming play), and they shouldn’t have, because there was clearly a process whereby there was communication between maybe John Parry, their rules analyst, who is in communication with the officiating department. … I know (NFL executive vice president of football operations) Troy Vincent was over the top about, ”We never said that.” Well, wait a minute.

Who knows what really took place here? That could be making up something on the back end of it, or maybe he didn’t know what was said. But clearly, Joe didn’t just say that out of thin air. Joe got what he considered to be information from a very reliable source. I thought he handled it well. And I thought ESPN took it in the neck from some people in a way they should not have.

Am I making a fair and correct hypothesis that if someone in your position presented information that was not accurate, the NFL is absolutely in contact with your booth, and you would be correcting that information to the public?

No doubt about it. In that situation, you should name a source. I think you have to say who told you. You can’t hide behind a screen because we’re the ones who are out there. We’re not hiding. We can’t. The curtain is up. So I think when you get information, who did it come from? The league is a big entity. I would always be of a mind to say, “This is what we’ve heard and this is who we heard it from.”

Are you scheduled to do anything between next week and August?

Not at the moment, I have an emeritus deal with NBC. They can use me for certain events. I might want to be a part of some things down the line. As part of the Amazon deal, I might do some off-air things for them. But for the most part, I’ll be resting. I’ll be Rip Van Winkling until August.

Sean McVay is someone you consider a friend. How would you envision McVay as a broadcaster should he enter the business?

I think he’ll be terrific. He is 36 years old, and I’m always amazed at how smart he is. Not just football smart, but world smart. …

Last year he needed some time after winning the Super Bowl. It was well known that Amazon was looking at him at that point. Before Amazon had me, before they had anybody, Troy Aikman was obviously in the mix and there was some talk about John Lynch being in the mix. There was certainly some talk about Sean McVay being in the mix. …

I think Sean is going to take some time. He’s been (a head coach) for six years. That’s not that long. He’s still the youngest coach in the league. He will be excellent in the booth if he wants to do it. I think he’s the kind of guy that would relish being at the games. It’s one thing to sit in a studio and a green room. You watch all of the games. You come out at halftime or the end of the game and you say a few words with an ensemble. I think what Sean would enjoy is being in the fray, and that is at the games, going to practices, meeting with the players and the coaches.

Having talked to Fred Gaudelli for many years, (Steelers coach) Mike Tomlin is someone who’s always been at the top of Fred‘s and many other executive lists of someone currently playing or coaching with great broadcaster potential. Who comes to mind if I asked you for a current player or coach other than McVay who could be good at this?

Mike Tomlin is just great. (He) has a way of describing the mundane in a very original and unique manner. … He has great perspective as well. So Tomlin, clearly. (Ravens coach) John Harbaugh is another guy who I think would be great at this.

Among the players, there are a number. Look, Tom Brady is out there. I think Tom will be better than a lot of people think he’ll be. The one thing I know about Brady having known him obviously for a long time: If Tom does something, he is all in. He’s not going to say, I’m Tom Brady and I’m going to show up and make $37 million, or whatever that number was that Fox was going to pay him, and just show up. He’ll immerse himself.

I feel like Greg Olsen (the current Fox No. 1 analyst, who stands to be replaced by Brady if and when he joins Fox) has played this beautifully. If nothing else, he’s risen his stature as an analyst, no?

Agree totally. A very unusual situation, obviously. Joe Buck leaves. Aikman leaves. Kevin Burkhardt ascends. So now what are they going to do? Who do you put in there? He was the next guy down the line. I give him a lot of credit because he sounds anything like a guy who’s looking over his shoulder. He’s been very confident on the air. I think he’s done a really good job. There’s an elephant in that room. Can you keep the elephant in the backyard for a while? And maybe that elephant will stay in the backyard three or four more years. Maybe the elephant will never come into the house. You never know.

NEW PLAYOFF RULES

As we saw in the World Cup final, a goal does not end most soccer overtimes.  They play 30 minutes no matter what – Messi scored for Argentina in the 18^th minute, but France equalized in the 28^th minute and we went on to the penalty kick shootout that almost disturbed the NFL’s 1 pm kickoffs.

Now, the NFL isn’t a 30-minute postseason overtime, yet, followed by a field goal kicking or two-point conversion shootout, yet – but there is a new rule that could extend postseason overtimes.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

In last year’s playoffs, the Bills and Chiefs played one of the greatest games in NFL history, but it was a game that left many fans feeling unfulfilled: It ended with the Chiefs receiving the overtime kickoff and scoring the game-winning touchdown on the opening possession. Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who had played a brilliant game, never touched the ball in overtime.

This year, that won’t happen: The NFL changed its playoff overtime rules in the offseason, and now postseason games won’t end with a touchdown on the opening possession of overtime.

Now if a team scores a touchdown on the first possession of overtime, it will line up to kick an extra point or attempt a two-point conversion. Then that team will kick off, and the other team will get a chance to score a touchdown. If that team does score a touchdown, it will line up for an extra point or two-point conversion of its own. It’s possible that the game can end at that point: For instance, if the first team kicked an extra point, the second team can try a game-ending two-point conversion attempt. But if the score remains tied after both teams’ touchdowns, at that point the team that scored the second touchdown would kick off again, and from there on it would be sudden-death overtime.

The new rules could lead to some new strategies: Some coaches may actually prefer to kick off to begin overtime, on the thinking that they’d rather know what the other team has done when they get the ball, and know if they need to play for a touchdown or can settle for a field goal. Some coaches may be more aggressive about going for two after a touchdown.

There is still one scenario in which both teams don’t get a possession in overtime: If the team kicking off to start overtime scores a safety on the receiving team’s initial possession, the team that kicked off is the winner without ever possessing the ball. For instance, if the kickoff returner gets tackled deep in his own territory, and then on the next play the quarterback is sacked in his own end zone, that safety ends the game.

Unlike regular-season overtime, which is 10 minutes long, playoff overtime is essentially starting a new game: Teams will play 15-minute periods until there is a winner. If there’s been no winner after two 15-minute periods, there will be another kickoff to start the third overtime period, although there won’t be a halftime break between periods. Needing to go to a third overtime period has never happened in NFL history.