Things are starting to shake loose on the GM/Coach Carousel, with George Paton kicking things off by signing a six-year deal to be Broncos GM.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Bears GM Ryan Pace, who made the defining move of his reign by lusting after QB MITCH TRUBISKY, sounds ready to move on from his first love.  Jeff Dickerson ofESPN.com:

The Chicago Bears’ never-ending search for a franchise quarterback could have another chapter after general manager Ryan Pace declined to say that the team intends to re-sign 2017 second overall pick Mitchell Trubisky.

“As far as the plan at quarterback, to get to where we want to go, we definitely need more out of that position,” Pace said Wednesday after he and coach Matt Nagy were given a vote of confidence.

“Everything is on the table.”

Trubisky’s future in Chicago has been tenuous ever since the Bears traded for veteran Nick Foles last April and declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option a little over a month later.

Trubisky went on to win the starting job over Foles to open the season, but Nagy benched Trubisky, 26, in favor of Foles in Week 3.

An injury to Foles — coupled with ineffective play — opened the door for Trubisky to return to the starting lineup in late November, and he helped Chicago revive its playoff hopes with three straight wins versus Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville.

The spark that Trubisky provided proved fleeting. The Bears lost at home in Week 17 to Green Bay. Chicago backed into the playoffs and the NFC’s seventh seed courtesy of the Rams’ victory over the Cardinals in the regular-season finale but then had a dreadful offensive performance in the playoffs versus the Saints.

Overall, the Bears dropped eight of their final 11 games after having begun the year 5-1.

Chicago went 1-7 against playoff teams.

Still, Trubisky expressed a willingness to return to Chicago next season, telling reporters in the aftermath of the season-ending loss to New Orleans that he had “unfinished business” with the team.

That may be so, but the Bears made no promises Wednesday to extend Trubisky or apply the franchise tag. Instead, Pace and Nagy spoke at length about the importance of improving the position that has been a problem for the Bears since Hall of Famer Sid Luckman retired in the 1940s.

DETROIT

A second interview for Arthur Smith in Detroit.  Dave Birkett in the Detroit Free Press:

Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has a full dance card in the coming days, including a second interview with the Detroit Lions.

NFL Network reported Wednesday that Smith, one of the hottest coaching candidates on the market, is scheduled to meet with the Lions for a second time this week, on Friday.

Smith had a virtual interview Tuesday with the Lions, and the team moved quickly to bring him to town.

The Lions plan to meet with both their next head coach and general manager in person before making any hires.

On Wednesday, they held an in-person interview with GM candidate Brad Holmes of the Los Angeles Rams.

Lions president Rod Wood has said he is comfortable hiring the head coach before the general manager, if that is how things shake out.

Smith is the first known coaching candidate to get a second interview with the Lions. The Titans had the NFL’s fourth-highest scoring offense this season at 30.7 points per game and ranked second or tied for second in total and rushing offense.

Smith is also known to have had a second interview with the Jets.

On the GM front, it looks like Brad Holmes will be the choice.  Myles Simmons ofESPN.com:

After the Falcons reportedly found their General Manager on Thursday morning, so have the Lions.

Detroit has chosen Rams director of college scouting Brad Holmes as its next G.M., according to multiple reports.

Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissaro of NFL Media reports Holmes and the Lions have agreed to a five-year contract.

Holmes first interviewed with the Lions on Jan. 7 and had a second interview earlier this week. He was also in contention for the Falcons G.M. job that will reportedly go to Saints assistant G.M. of pro personnel Terry Fontenot.

Holmes has worked for the Rams since 2003, when he started as a P.R. intern. He then worked his way up the ranks and was promoted to director of college scouting in 2013.

With the NFL’s new rule to incentivize the development of minority candidates, the Rams will receive two compensatory third-round draft picks when Holmes’ hiring is official. The Saints will also receive a pair of third-round compensatory picks when Atlanta officially hires Fontenot.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

Apparently, the next coach of the Eagles will have to pledge to putting QB CARSON WENTZ back together as a top priority if one extrapolates from what Troy Aikman has to say after a conversation with deposed Coach Doc Pederson.  Paul Domowitch of the Philadelphia Inquirer:

Doug Pederson’s firing Monday was good news for Carson Wentz and not-so-good news for Jalen Hurts, Troy Aikman said.

The Fox Sports analyst and Hall of Fame quarterback was a guest on the Michael Irvin Podcast on PodcastOne, which drops Thursday morning. He said he spoke with Pederson after he was let go by the Eagles.

Aikman said he gathered from his conversation with Pederson that “a difference of opinion in how they were going to move forward with the quarterback position” played a role in his firing.

“Jeffrey Lurie has paid a lot of money to Carson Wentz, and they’re on the hook with him, and can’t get out of that contract right away,” Aikman told Irvin, his longtime friend and former Cowboys teammate.

 “It’s my belief that Doug Pederson felt that Jalen Hurts probably [should be] the quarterback going forward. But how does that mesh [with Wentz’s contract situation]? I believe it all came down to how they’re going to handle Carson Wentz.”

Pederson benched Wentz in the second half of the Eagles’ Week 13 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Hurts replaced him and started the final four games. The Eagles won just one of those four.

Lurie was asked during his Monday videoconference whether Pederson’s fractured relationship with Wentz played any role in the coach’s firing. This was his long and winding response:

 “This kind of decision has probably multiple, multiple variables. But it’s not based on a quarterback or a particular position group. Certainly, you have to look at the regression of our offense. This is a league that scored the most points ever in 2020. It’s a league that started to not call offensive holding penalties and offensive pass-interference penalties. And yet, we were, I think, 21st in offense.

“I look more at the whole picture. It’s not about a particular player or a particular group, and that’s true for going forward. I think you all know me. I put a heavy emphasis on wanting to have an elite offense. If you want to be a dominant team, you need to be a top offensive unit. I didn’t see … it’s hard for me to project that at the moment.

“But it’s multiple variables. I don’t want you to think that there’s one possible explanation for a change in head coach. It’s way more complex than that.”

WASHINGTON

John Keim of ESPN.com on the future of the quarterback position for Washington.

The Washington Football Team has reached this point in the past. It enters an offseason full of hope after finishing strong and reaching the postseason. What it hasn’t done in the past: build on that success.

In order to finally do so, Washington must answer several questions — none bigger than who will play quarterback in 2021 and, perhaps, beyond.

“We can get crazy better,” Washington rookie defensive end Chase Young said.

To keep climbing, though, multiple NFC scouts and talent evaluators point to quarterback as the obvious stumbling block.

Washington has not made the postseason in consecutive years since 1990-92. The franchise has made the playoffs five times since, and in three of those years it missed a repeat appearance in the postseason by one game. In the other two, it went a combined 8-24.

Washington, which finished 7-9, remains in a rebuilding process. While it won five of its last seven games to earn the NFC East title, it also benefited from playing in a weak division. The franchise had won nine or 10 games in each of its previous five playoff seasons.

“We got to the playoffs, and everybody’s excited about that,” Washington coach Ron Rivera said. “That’s great. But that’s not the goal. The goal is to win the Super Bowl. It’s like that old saying that the team that ends up on top just doesn’t land there. They had to work their way up. So, we’re on our way up.”

Washington won because it has a young, and excellent, defensive front — one NFC scout called it “great.” It has standout ends in Young and Montez Sweat. It needs to add to the back seven, but the foundation is set to build a championship-caliber defense.

But it might not matter if the team is unable to settle on a quarterback.

Rivera said they would be meeting on that topic this week, but it’s hard to come up with any other conclusion than Washington must find one.

Alex Smith, 36, is mulling his future — if he does return, will he last a full season? Kyle Allen was viewed as a backup/fringe starter and now is coming off a broken ankle; Taylor Heinicke is acknowledged as a terrific story in the organization, but that guarantees nothing other than fighting for a roster spot. They also have Steven Montez, an undrafted free-agent rookie. They have parts; they need The Guy.

Check out the quarterbacks left in the playoffs (Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and L.A. Rams’ Jared Goff). Five have been to the Super Bowl and four have won it. That’s the kind of guy you need to advance — especially if other holes exist on the roster.

One NFC scout said Washington had to scheme its way to points, a hard way to live. What the team needs, he said, is a stronger front that can help develop an identity and lead to more bread-and-butter plays that don’t need to fool the defense to succeed.

The hard part will be acquiring that quarterback, and it’s uncertain what veterans might be available and at what cost.

Washington, which picks at No. 19 in the 2021 NFL draft, could select a QB. However, there also is a belief, by bolstering the lineup elsewhere on offense, it could win nine or 10 games with average to solid quarterback play. In 2018, before Smith was hurt, the team played turnover-free ball and was 6-3, but not viewed as a legitimate threat for the postseason.

A higher level of play is needed for the Super Bowl.

That’s one reason Washington has failed to repeat playoff seasons. It appeared to have quarterback issues resolved in some of those years. In reaching the playoffs in 1999, Brad Johnson threw for 4,005 yards and 24 touchdowns, but owner Dan Snyder brought in Jeff George in the offseason, which angered Johnson. They then went 8-8 and fired coach Norv Turner late in the 2000 season.

When Snyder has inserted himself into other quarterback acquisitions — Donovan McNabb, Robert Griffin III, Dwayne Haskins Jr. — it has not ended well.

Griffin was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year in 2012 and was named to the Pro Bowl. But he tore his ACL in a playoff loss to Seattle. Also, a massive fissure developed between he and the coaching staff. Before training camp that summer, one assistant coach said he told his wife they were going to be horrible, in part because of those issues. They went 3-13.

And in 2015, Kirk Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 touchdowns. He followed that with 4,917 yards and 25 touchdowns, but struggled down the stretch and, with a playoff berth at stake in the season finale, threw two interceptions. Washington lost four of its last six — two coming against teams that finished with losing records. The storyline in those offseasons was Cousins being placed on the franchise tag and whether they could keep him around. They eventually traded for Smith and let Cousins walk after the 2017 season.

Rivera’s Carolina Panthers teams did not post consecutive winning seasons during his eight full seasons, but they did make the postseason three years in a row and four out of five. In that stretch, the Panthers went a combined 34-13-1 and reached one Super Bowl, thanks to a top defense and an elite quarterback in Cam Newton.

In Washington, Rivera has the makings of a defense that could be good for several years. Players exited the season praising the culture created by Rivera. The team persevered through the coronavirus pandemic and Rivera’s cancer battle while starting four quarterbacks.

“Nobody gave us a shot in probably 90% of our games,” said guard Brandon Scherff, a pending free agent who wants to return. “But we came out on top. That shows the character and resiliency that we have as a team.”

But, as the franchise has seen, keeping the momentum has been the hardest part.

“The key to it really will be the way we come back, and how we approach the upcoming season,” Rivera said. “If we come back and we’re fat and lazy, we’re going to get the crap kicked out of us. It’s that simple.”

Players heeded his season-ending message.

“Everybody on this team knows we have something to build on and what we can do,” Young said. “Next year is our chance to prove that.”

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

The Falcons are prepared to pluck Terry Fontenot from the rival Saints.  Kevin Patra ofNFL.com:

The Atlanta Falcons have zeroed in on their next general manager, and the plan is to swipe from a division rival.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that the Falcons identified Saints assistant general manager/VP of pro personnel Terry Fontenot as the favorite to be their next GM, per sources informed of the situation.

Rapoport added that the deal wouldn’t be consummated until the Saints — who face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Divisional Round on Sunday night — are out of the playoffs, but signs point to Fontenot being the choice in Atlanta.

Pillaging their NFC South rival, the Falcons would add a GM with a depth of experience, who by all accounts was ready to run his own show after years under Mickey Loomis.

Fontenot has spent 16 seasons with the Saints organization, the past six as director of pro scouting. Rising through the ranks in New Orleans, Fontenot has been a bigger voice within the organization in recent years.

Now he appears headed to help a division rival.

In addition to the Falcons, Fontenot interviewed with the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos, who recently hired George Paton for their GM gig.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

DT AARON DONALD proclaims that he is ready to stalk Packers QB AARON RODGERS.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The two-time AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year said he’s fine after suffering torn rib cartridge in Saturday’s playoff victory.

“No pain, I feel healthy,” Donald said, via NFL Network’s Stacey Dales.

Donald left Saturday’s win against the Seahawks early in the third quarter and didn’t return — NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo previously reported the DT could have returned if needed late. Donald said Wednesday it felt like he got the wind knocked out of him when the injury occurred.

Heading into the cold of Lambeau Field, Donald said he’ll be ready to rock.

“The way I’m feeling right now, I’m not too worried about it,” he said. “I feel good, I feel strong, and I’ll be ready come Saturday.”

Donald did not practice on Wednesday. In other Rams injury notes, quarterback John Wolford (neck) and receiver Cooper Kupp (knee) did not practice, either. Offensive lineman Andrew Whitworth (knee) was limited and quarterback Jared Goff (thumb) was a full participant for a second-straight day.

Rams head coach Sean McVay once more offered little update on whether Goff or Wolford would start at QB versus the Packers, saying just that he was “taking it a day at a time.”

SEATTLE

Jason LaCanfora wonders whether Pete Carroll will be able to find an effective OC he can live with:

No matter who is hired as the next offensive coordinator of the Seahawks, you have to wonder about the outcome. It’s pretty clear that Pete Carroll is more about running the football now than he ever has been before, and that is a shocking statement when if you have paid any attention to his career because running the ball has always been at the forefront of his mind.

There isn’t a lot of wiggle room here. Creativity has its place, in small moderation. Brian Schottenheimer, and the rapid process by which he was hired three years ago, was by no means a bold selection or robust search, but Schottenheimer’s reach was always going to be somewhat limited. And I’m told things finally fell apart between Carroll and his offensive play caller during season-review meetings when it was clear their philosophies as to how to right an offense that went south in the second half of the season were far apart. The mandate was essentially to find ways to keep pounding the rock, and a change that was not originally planned went down quickly.

There is definitely some skepticism in the coaching ranks as to how attractive this job is, even with a talent the likes of Russell Wilson to work with (and those receivers). If I was the Seahawks I would reach out to Chiefs quarterback back Mike Kafka and Ravens quarterbacks coach James Urban and Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott. I’d be looking for the most inspired choice to find ways to attack all quadrants of the field through the air and tap into Wilson’s unique skillset. But it’s fair to say there is skepticism within the industry about this search actually playing out in that manner.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Jeff Legwold on the signing of George Paton as the Broncos GM:

John Elway and the Denver Broncos wanted George Paton to be the team’s new general manager so much, Paton was given a longer deal than Elway ever had in the same job.

Paton, who has spent the past 13 years with the Minnesota Vikings, has agreed to a six-year deal to be the Broncos’ general manager, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The Broncos announced Paton’s hiring on Wednesday but did not disclose terms.

Paton had spent most of Tuesday in Denver for what was a second interview for him with team officials, and had returned to Minnesota Tuesday night.

Elway had promised to find the “best candidate, the best person” for the job. The Broncos also interviewed New Orleans Saints assistant general manager Terry Fontenot, Chicago Bears assistant director of player personnel Champ Kelly, the New England Patriots’ Dave Ziegler and the Broncos’ director of college scouting Brian Stark.

“Early in this process, it became clear why George has been such a coveted GM candidate for so many years. He is a proven evaluator who knows every detail of leading football operations,” Elway said in a statement. “With his experience in all aspects of the job — the college and pro sides, salary cap, trades, working with the head coach and bringing the staff together — George is more than ready to succeed in this role. George has waited and worked for the right opportunity, which shows that he is smart and serious about winning. We’re thrilled to name George Paton as general manager of the Denver Broncos.”

Paton and Fontenot, who did his interview virtually because the Saints are still in the playoffs, were each interviewed a second time Tuesday.

Elway, who has been the Broncos’ top football decision-maker since 2011, announced Jan. 4 he was stepping away from the day-to-day personal operations but would remain as president of football operations at least through the final year of his current contract.

Elway also said he didn’t think the team’s current ownership battle between Pat Bowlen’s children would affect the Broncos’ ability to secure what he believed would be a top candidate. Paton’s six-year deal would likely bridge any potential change in the team’s ownership in the coming years.

Paton has control over the team’s roster, free agency and the draft. The Broncos have missed the playoffs in five consecutive seasons since the Super Bowl 50 win and finished this past season 5-11.

The team faces contract option decisions on linebacker Von Miller and Kareem Jackson, and Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons is scheduled to be among the team’s unrestricted free agents. A decision about the plan at quarterback also is among the front-burner issues for the Broncos.

The team has one of the youngest rosters in the league and enough salary-cap room to participate in the open market. In recent days, Elway and team president and CEO Joe Ellis each promised that the new general manager would have “the resources” to make improvements.

“In many ways, I feel like this team is a sleeping giant. For me, it is the right place and the right time for this opportunity,” Paton said in a statement. “… While it is difficult to leave the Vikings, the relationships I enjoyed in Minnesota are for life.

Paton added: “… Drafting and developing players is the No. 1 priority. We will be aggressive — but not reckless — in adding talent to our roster.”

Paton has been particularly selective with general manager openings over the years. Last year, following Kevin Stefanski’s departure for Cleveland, Paton was a finalist for the Cleveland Browns’ general manager position but pulled his name from contention on Jan. 24, 2020, two days after he visited for an in-person interview.

Paton was also sought after for openings with Detroit — this cycle and previously, when the Detroit Lions hired former GM Bob Quinn — Green Bay, San Francisco, the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Jets.

Paton is widely considered among the top talent evaluators on the Vikings’ personnel staff, and his exit leaves Minnesota with a big void in the front office. Ryan Monnens, the current director of pro scouting, could be in line to replace Paton this offseason.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com runs a want ad for Ravens DC Wink Martindale:

This is a funny league sometimes. Especially when it comes to coaching searches.

Take, for instance, the curious case of Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. The man can flat-out coach, he continues to oversee an elite defense in Baltimore — albeit one that isn’t exactly loaded with pass rushers – and he is coming off an absolutely master-class performance against a coordinator who all six teams seeking a head coach wanted an audience. Yet not a single request to interview Martindale. Beyond, odd, to me.

This, a year after the Giants talked themselves out of finalizing a deal with Martindale to instead freak out over Mississippi State (yeah, that Mississippi State) possibly hiring the Patriots 38-year old special teams coordinator, Joe Judge, and decided to basically give him the job instead of waiting to see how far the Ravens advanced in the playoffs (turned out they lost in the Divisional Round after their Wild Card bye). Martindale went on to lead Baltimore to a top defense in many key metrics, despite playing a lot of the season without getting his best defensive linemen on the field together with any regularity due to Covid and injuries, he has the strong backing of Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, and he is beyond prepared to take over an NFL team.

Alas, apparently, he is not this year’s flavor. The trend on the defensive side of the ball is trending decidedly younger, not that Martindale, is by any means over the hill at age 57; in fact, his fire, ability to connect with very young players and unique teaching style should be exactly what is attracting him to NFL teams. To say nothing of his ability to call a football game, exert great pressure on the opposing quarterback despite an outside pass rusher who is gifted with superior moves. He is aggressive and creative with his blitz packages, and perhaps someone interviewing Smith should check out the film of last Sunday’s game. It was the first time in two years where the young offensive coordinator looked his age, and he had no answers for the swarming approach to suffocating Titans 2,000-yard running back, Derrick Henry.

Consider that the Titans held the ball for over 10 minutes of the first quarter … and then 15:59 of the final 45 minutes of the game. Tennessee ran 22 times for 51 yards. Almost two-thirds of Henry’s 18 rushes (11) went for two yards or less, four went for zero or negative yards, and just two went over five yards (with a long of eight). The Titans rolled up 121 yards on 20 plays with 10 points in the opening quarter, Martindale altered his coverages and match-ups, doubled A.J. Brown, switched up assignments on the tight ends, and Tennessee could only muster an astonishing 88 yards on 29 plays over the final three quarters.

Unfathomable.

Perhaps the ultimate sign of respect — or surrender — was Smith calling two passing plays on second-and-two from the Baltimore 40, with 10 minutes to play and trailing just 17-13, and then coach Mike Vrabel punting on fourth down. From the Baltimore 40!. Was Martindale’s defense that in their heads on the opposite sideline? On a day they could not run with Henry, there were no real designed runs or bootlegs for Ryan Tannehill. No real deep shots or calculated adjustments. The Titans were 5-of-5 for 68 yards and a touchdown throwing to tight ends in the first half and attempted all of one pass to them in the second half. Teams, like the Titans as recently as November, have gashed the Ravens in the screen game at times, but the Titans’ third-down back saw precious little of the ball.

Martindale had perhaps his finest moment, during a stint in Baltimore that has included no shortage of them. Maybe some inquisitive owner or general manager might want to find out a little more about what goes into his game plans and what makes him tick. Sure, the window to interview him easily (this week) has passed, and you’d have to wait until the Ravens lose — or the Super Bowl bye week — to get an audience with him, but it just might be worth the wait.

The fact that no team pounced yet as of Wednesday afternoon on any of the “hot” candidates making the rounds seems fairly telling. Martindale is more than ready and deserving.

PITTSBURGH

In the wake of Pittsburgh’s late-season offensive slump, OC Randy Fichtner’s long run with the club will come to an end. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said on Wednesday he understands that “we better make some changes in what we do” after losing five of their final six games, including the 48-37 drubbing by the Browns that knocked them out of the playoffs last Sunday night.

One of those changes is reportedly coming at offensive coordinator. Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports that Randy Fichtner will not have his contract renewed for the 2021 season.

Fichtner joined the Steelers as the wide receivers coach in 2007 and became the quarterbacks coach in 2010. He added offensive coordinator to his title after Todd Haley left following the 2017 season and dropped the quarterbacks coach title this season.

The Steelers ranked 12th in points scored and 24th in yards this season, but struggled to move the ball on the ground all season and had wholesale issues as they sputtered to the finish line in the regular season.

Defensive coordinator Keith Butler’s contract is also up, so the Steelers could wind up making changes on both sides of the ball after a year that had an unhappy ending.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

Perhaps by tomorrow, Urban Meyer will be head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Urban Meyer became the focus of the Jaguars head coaching search before they officially fired Doug Marrone earlier this month and it looks like the pursuit is nearing the finish line.

According to multiple reports, Meyer and the Jaguars are finalizing a deal for him to become the franchise’s sixth full-time head coach. Those reports indicate confidence that a deal will be done on Thursday.

Meyer was last on the sideline with Ohio State during the 2018 season and cited health reasons when he stepped down after winning the Rose Bowl. Meyer cited the same reasons when gave up the head coaching job at Florida after the 2010 season.

The Jaguars’ pursuit of Meyer suggests they’re not overly concerned about his health hindering him in a return to the sideline and are more interested in the success Meyer had at both schools. He won two national titles at Florida and another at Ohio State. Including stints at Utah and Bowling Green, Meyer has a 187-32 record as a college coach.

Jacksonville’s never had that kind of success, but the hope is that Meyer, the No. 1 overall draft pick, and a ton of cap space can lead to better days.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

If you haven’t been won over by QB TUA TAV, you are not alone.  There are skeptics in the locker room.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Some outsiders believed in 2019 that the Dolphins were tanking for Tua. Some insiders now believe in 2021 that the Dolphins may be tanking with Tua.

Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald reports that multiple Dolphins have doubts about Tua Tagovailoa.

In response to last week’s claim from G.M. Chris Grier that Tua will be the starting quarterback in 2021, one unnamed player said: “I understand what they said. But I don’t understand why.”

Per Salguero, the three unnamed players said they hope Tagovailoa will improve, but they said that he wasn’t “outstanding” as a rookie.

Tagovailoa has a ceiling that he has yet to reach. Unfortunately for him, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert — taken one spot after Tagovailoa — passed the eyeball test immediately. To the trained eye, the gap between Herbert and Tagovailoa already is immense.

Complicating matters for Tua is the fact that, when the going got tough, his head coach turned to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

What will happen in 2021? Will there by a veteran who serves a relief pitcher in a league where almost every other quarterback throws a complete game, every week? Will Tua improve, or will he stagnate?

The Dolphins hold the third pick in the draft. They must evaluate all top quarterbacks, in the event that they may be able to trade the selection to a team that wants to draft one. Maybe, in that process, they’ll decide that a much better quarterback than the one they have could be available at No. 3.

That could precisely be what the Dolphins do. Even if they’re thinking about a potential upgrade, there’s no reason at all to declare those intentions now.

THIS AND THAT

2021 DRAFT

Chris Trapasso of CBSSports.com says that Alabama QB MAC JONES is of lesser quality than LSU QB JOE BURROW was last year despite a similar level of accomplishments:

If numbers don’t lie then Mac Jones is an elite quarterback prospect. Right? He completed 77.4% of his passes at a phenomenal 11.2 yards-per-attempt average with 41 touchdowns, four interceptions and just 10 sacks all season in Alabama’s perfect 13-0 campaign.

Having watched his film, I can confidently tell you — he’s not an elite prospect. But before I explain the reasons why, let’s not get anything twisted. I respect Jones for the job he did taking over for an injured Tua Tagovailoa in 2019, and there’s no doubting he deserves praise for the season he compiled on the most explosive Alabama offense in the storied program’s history en route to a national title.

He belongs somewhere relatively early in the 2021 draft. His film is littered with impressive, pinpoint accurate throws to all levels of the field, and every once in a while one of those throws happened after he navigated chaos well inside the pocket. Jones has accuracy and pocket-drifting skills going for him, and they’re important traits to have in the toolbox as a quarterback enters the NFL.

The question with Jones is — how early should he be picked? Top half of the first round? In the first round at all? Day 2? I’d lean toward the latter. Let me explain why.

Numbers can lie, and context is the polygraph test.

Of Jones’ 424 attempts this season, 145 of them were thrown to pass-catchers at or behind the line of scrimmage, good for a rate of 34.1%. That’s high. Really high.

Here’s how first-round quarterbacks picked in the past two drafts compare in that statistical category:

Joe Burrow (LSU ’19) – 16.6%

Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama ’19) – 31.7%

Justin Herbert (Oregon ’19) – 28.9%

Jordan Love (Utah State ’19) – 28.5%

Kyler Murray (Oklahoma ’18) – 31.2%

Daniel Jones (Duke ’18) – 22.1%

Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State ’18) – 25.7%

It was impossible not to marvel at the skill-position talent at Alabama this season — and really over the past five years or so — skill-position talent that routinely took a two-yard drag route and morphed it into a 50-yard touchdown or blew past man coverage down the sideline for field-flipping gain.

Of Jones’ 4,500 passing yards, more than half (53.5%) was via yards after the catch. And absolutely, YAC can sometimes be aided by a super-accurate pass or a quarterback throwing to the right receiver in rhythm. Jones did those things in 2020 for the Crimson Tide. But check how his YAC percentage of 53.5 compares to those same group of recent Round 1 passers:

Joe Burrow (LSU ’19) – 45.6%

Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama ’19) – 60.7%

Justin Herbert (Oregon ’19) – 52.7%

Jordan Love (Utah State ’19) – 43.7%

Kyler Murray (Oklahoma ’18) – 48.3%

Daniel Jones (Duke ’18) – 50.4%

Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State ’18) – 51.5%

The Alabama quarterbacks, Jones and Tagovailoa, having the highest rates, suggests it’s a scheme thing. And it most certainly is. But I also don’t feel nearly as good about Tagovailoa’s future after what he showed as a rookie compared to how I felt before the 2020 draft. His perfect environment with the Crimson Tide, only slightly above-average athleticism and limited arm talent were my biggest concerns with Tagovailoa as a prospect, although I loved his accuracy, anticipation, and decision-making.

And who do a lot of those concerns describe?

Jones. I actually do believe he’s put more high-caliber pocket drifts on film than Tagovailoa did before his injury last season, but he’s not as athletic, and his arm talent isn’t as impressive.   

In 2020, only 11.3% of Jones pass attempts were made out of the pocket — again, scheme — but that low figure does hint at his lack of playmaking ability, a skill becoming increasingly important to the modern-day quarterback. For comparison, Justin Fields, who many rightfully criticize for some awkward improvisations, threw 21.5% of his passes outside of the friendly confines of the pocket this season.

Could Jones land on a good team late in Round 1, sit for a season, and ultimately become a successful passer? Yes. But he’s going to need a lot of assets around him. Sturdy offensive line, deep and dynamic group of receivers, and an innovative offensive coordinator who’s not going to ask Jones to make too many tight-window throws and will accentuate the screen and RPO games. Take any of those elements away, and Jones is likely to crumble because of his lack of supreme physical traits.

Now, to me, that doesn’t describe a quarterback I want to pick in the first round. Round 2 or Round 3? That seems about right. But, after the season and career Jones had, there’s a good chance he’ll be selected within the first 32 picks in late April.