| ESPN.com has a ranking of all 32 rookie classes from Adam Schatz. The raw rank is below, the full commentary for the top and bottom five are in the team box. We’re taking a look at all 32 rookie classes in the NFL and ranking the value of their contributions in 2025. We want to emphasize that this list is based only on how much production teams got out of their rookies in their first season — it’s not predictive. There might be great future contributions from rookies such as Travis Hunter (knee) and Cam Skattebo (ankle), but those players missed much of the 2025 campaign because of injury. To rank the rookie classes, I started with Sports Info Solutions’ total points metric. Based on game charting, total points takes every element of a play and uses that data to evaluate each player on a scale that allows us to compare between positions: How many points do we estimate that this player either earned for his offense or saved for his defense? Then I adjusted some teams up or down based on the importance of certain positions or how well players did in ESPN tracking metrics and the FTN Network DVOA ratings. (Postseason performance is not included.) There’s a significant gap this year between our top four teams and the rest of the league. Yet unlike in other recent seasons, this year’s strongest rookie performances did not necessarily translate into immediate team turnarounds. Our top three teams had losing records. You can read about teams 6 to 27 here, 1. New Orleans Saints2. Cleveland Browns3. New York Giants4. New England Patriots5. Carolina Panthers6. Atlanta Falcons7. Chicago Bears8. Los Angeles Chargers9. Baltimore Ravens10. New York Jets11. Tennessee Titans12. Dallas Cowboys13. Miami Dolphins14. Arizona Cardinals15. Buffalo Bills16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers17. Denver Broncos18. Philadelphia Eagles19. Seattle Seahawks20. Houston Texans21. Kansas City Chiefs22. Detroit Lions23. Cincinnati Bengals24. Indianapolis Colts25. Washington Commanders26. Las Vegas Raiders27. San Francisco 49ers28. Pittsburgh Steelers29. Green Bay Packers30. Minnesota Vikings31. Jacksonville Jaguars32. Los Angeles Rams |
| NFC NORTH |
| GREEN BAYAaron Schaatz of ESPN.com points out the lack of help the Packers received from the rookie class: 29. Green Bay PackersAaron Nagler of Cheesehead TV warned me before the season not to get too excited about first-round pick Matthew Golden because the Packers don’t like to feature rookies at the wide receiver position. He was right. Golden caught only 29 passes for 361 yards and a touchdown in 2025. Look for him to play a bigger role in the offense in future years. We’ll also see how Savion Williams develops; the third-round gadget receiver had 11 carries for 37 yards and 10 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. The Packers also got seven starts from second-round offensive lineman Anthony Belton and contributions from defensive linemen Warren Brinson (13 tackles) and the undrafted Nazir Stackhouse (12 tackles). The Packers’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/23 Matthew Golden WR Texas2/54 Anthony Belton OT NC State3/87 Savion Williams WR TCU4/124 Barryn Sorrell EDGE Texas5/159 Collin Oliver LB Oklahoma State6/198 Warren Brinson DT Georgia7/237 Micah Robinson CB Tulane7/250 John Williams OT Cincinnati– – -This on how unlikely the Packers various collapses were: @robreischelThe #Packers had a 99% chance to beat the #Browns and #Bears (Week 16) in the final 3 minutes of those games, and a 96% to beat the Bears with 6 minutes to go Saturday. The odds of going 0-3 in those games were 1-in-250,000. That’s far worse that 4th-&-26 or Seattle, 2014. |
| MINNESOTAAaron Schaatz of ESPN.com notes the lack of contributions from the Vikings rookie class: 30. Minnesota VikingsMuch like the Colts, almost all the rookie value for the Vikings came from a single first-round pick. Minnesota took guard Donovan Jackson with the No. 24 selection, and he was a quality starter for most of the season. Jackson finished with a 92.6% pass block win rate (average for guards) and a 76.9% run block win rate (well above average). And then … that’s about it. Undrafted free agent quarterback Max Brosmer was terrible when forced into action (14.0 QBR), and any other rookies had very minor impacts. This is Minnesota’s second straight year at or near the bottom of this list. The Vikings’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/24 Donovan Jackson G Ohio State3/102 Tai Felton WR Maryland5/139 Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins EDGE Georgia6/201 Kobe King LB Penn State6/202 Gavin Bartholomew TE Pittsburgh. |
| NFC EAST |
| NEW YORK GIANTSDan Graziano of ESPN.com offered this update on John Harbaugh last Wednesday: @DanGrazianoESPNWhat I’m hearing on John Harbaugh, per sources:-He’s still in NJ meeting with Giants officials. Extensive interview. Touring facility, etc. I’m told he has spoken to QB Jaxson Dart.-As of now, plan is to fly home to Baltimore tonight, speak with other teams in coming days…-Currently Harbaugh has no formal meetings set up with other teams besides Giants, but Tennessee and Atlanta remain in the picture and still could speak with him tomorrow or Friday. I believe Green Bay would be a spot to watch if it came open, but as of now it’s not. I would expect Harbaugh to have a new team by early next week, and he could be the first of the coaching dominos to fall, though if other teams have been told they’re out, they could obviously move on to other options in the meantime. As of now, Harbaugh has tentative plans to meet with Titans officials in Baltimore on Thursday. Lots of chatter about Giants “not letting him out of the building.” Possible things move quickly with NYG and change other plans, but as of now, again, his plan is to go home tonight. As we go to press, it looks more and more like a Harbaugh to the Giants deal is in the works per Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com: John Harbaugh and the New York Giants are finalizing an agreement to make him their next head coach, and barring any setbacks, a deal is expected, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Wednesday night. The deal is not final and contract numbers are still being negotiated, with one source telling Schefter: “There still is a lot to work through.” But barring any setbacks, Harbaugh is ready to accept the Giants’ deal and the team is expected to hire him as soon as possible, sources said. Harbaugh, 63, spent the past 18 seasons as coach of the Baltimore Ravens, going 180-113 and winning a Super Bowl before he was fired last week after they missed the playoffs. The Giants have gone just 7-27 over the past two seasons and could benefit from a proven, winning head coach. Harbaugh would succeed Brian Daboll, who was fired in November. Mike Kafka served as interim coach for the Giants’ final seven games. Harbaugh interviewed with the Atlanta Falcons on Monday and had tentative plans to meet with the Tennessee Titans on Thursday, but New York was the first team to have him in its facility for an interview. He arrived Wednesday morning and stayed into the early evening before returning to his Baltimore-area home on Giants owner Steve Tisch’s private jet. One source told ESPN it went “good,” with conversations set to continue Thursday. It was all part of a full-court press by the Giants to land who they think is the best, most established candidate on the market. Chris Mara, part of Giants ownership, told The Athletic on Monday that he had an informal meeting Sunday at Harbaugh’s house. Other members of ownership and general manager Joe Schoen also had conversations with Harbaugh since the Ravens fired him. The Giants have cast a wide net in their coaching search. They did in-person interviews with Kafka, Mike McCarthy, Raheem Morris, Kevin Stefanski and Antonio Pierce, sources told ESPN. They talked virtually with Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and Denver assistant head coach/special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi. The Giants may owe a debt to the guy they fired to open up the job. Paul Schwartz of the New York Post: Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning spoke with Harbaugh about the Giants. So did Daboll, who was extremely complimentary about the entire Giants operation and is believed to have assured Harbaugh that he would have no problem working with Schoen, as Schoen believes in a collaborative approach. During his time with the Giants, Harbaugh also met quarterback Jaxson Dart, whose strong rookie season and potential is one of the biggest Giants assets.– – -One of the reasons the Giants are desirable in this hiring cycle is their fine 2025 rookie class. Adam Schatz of ESPN.com: 3. New York GiantsThe Giants’ rookie class was about quality rather than quantity. First-round quarterback Jaxson Dart led all rookies in total points and ranked 18th with a 57.8 QBR, thanks partly to the value of his run plays. No. 3 pick Abdul Carter had only four sacks, but his 56 pressures led all rookie edge rushers. Third-round defensive tackle Darius Alexander had 3.5 sacks as a rotational lineman. And fourth-round running back Cam Skattebo energized the team in five starts, with 410 rushing yards, 207 receiving yards and seven touchdowns before an ankle injury ended his season. Seventh-round cornerback Korie Black and fifth-round offensive tackle Marcus Mbow also started games but didn’t perform particularly well. The Giants’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/3 Abdul Carter EDGE Penn State1/25 Jaxson Dart QB Ole Miss3/65 Darius Alexander DT Toledo4/105 Cam Skattebo RB Arizona State5/154 Marcus Mbow G Purdue7/219 Thomas Fidone II TE Nebraska7/246 Korie Black CB Oklahoma State |
| PHILADELPHIANow, of course, there are only 22 head coaches at the moment: @JeffKerrPHLThe active head coaches that currently have #NFL jobs with a Super Bowl title Andy ReidSean PaytonSean McVayNick Sirianni John Harbaugh incoming. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAThis: NFLDraftBitesMultiple people I’ve spoken with believe Matt Ryan will hire Klint Kubiak as the next Falcons Head Coach. Ties to the Shanahan tree and the perfect offense for Penix. 49ers Josh Williams is seen as the favorite for GM. Waiting for Seahawks season to conclude out of respect. That said, Kubiak may have other opportunities. |
| CAROLINAAaron Schatz of ESPN.com has the Panthers quietly at #5 in his rookie class rankings: 5. Carolina PanthersThe Panthers were the only team other than the Saints to have five rookies with 10 or more total points. But there was one real star: wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. He finished the season with 70 catches for 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns. The Panthers used their second- and third-round picks on edge rushers, Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen. Scourton finished the season with 5.0 sacks, and Umanmielen had 1.5 sacks. Fourth-round safety Lathan Ransom was also an important part of the Carolina defense, starting six games with 51 combined tackles, plus an interception, a sack and a forced fumble. Other top rookies on offense included fifth-round tight end Mitchell Evans, fourth-round running back Trevor Etienne and sixth-round wide receiver Jimmy Horn Jr. Undrafted kicker Ryan Fitzgerald finished 24-of-29 on field goals and ranked third in my gross kickoff values. The Panthers’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/8 Tetairoa McMillan WR Arizona2/51 Nic Scourton EDGE Texas A&M3/77 Princely Umanmielen EDGE Ole Miss4/114 Trevor Etienne RB Georgia4/122 Lathan Ransom S Ohio State5/140 Cam Jackson DT Florida5/163 Mitchell Evans TE Notre Dame6/208 Jimmy Horn Jr. WR Colorado |
| NEW ORLEANSMany, including the DB, thought the Saints would be at the bottom of the barrel in 2025, but they were better than that, in part by what Adam Schatz of ESPN.com thinks is the best of the 2025 rookie classes: 1. New Orleans SaintsThe Saints’ rookie class is headlined by second-round quarterback Tyler Shough, who ranked 21st with a 49.2 QBR in nine starts. That’s not quite “the Saints are set for years” territory, but Shough has certainly earned the right to come back and try to improve as the starter. (Just remember that he’s already 26 years old.) Shough’s blind side was protected by first-round left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., who started all 17 games. He ranked above average in run block win rate (75.6%), although he was below average in pass block win rate (87.7%). Then we go to the defensive side of the ball, where the Saints improved to a surprising 13th in defensive DVOA this season. In Ben Solak’s All-Rookie team, he highlighted third-round pick Jonas Sanker as a premier communicator and coverage player who made plays from sideline to sideline. Fourth-rounder Quincy Riley, the team’s third cornerback, was above average in my coverage DVOA metric and started five games. Another fourth-round pick, linebacker Danny Stutsman, didn’t start any games but had 53 combined tackles. Next season, the Saints will also get back third-round defensive tackle Vernon Broughton, who suffered a season-ending hip injury in Week 2. The Saints’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/9 Kelvin Banks Jr. OT Texas2/40 Tyler Shough QB Louisville3/71 Vernon Broughton DT Texas3/93 Jonas Sanker S Virginia4/112 Danny Stutsman LB Oklahoma4/131 Quincy Riley CB Louisville6/184 Devin Neal RB Kansas7/248 Moliki Matavao TE UCLA7/254 Fadil Diggs EDGE Syracuse |
| TAMPA BAYCharean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com on the dance card of Mike McDaniel: Former Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will have a job somewhere in 2026. The only question is: Will he be an assistant coach or will he get a second chance as a head coach? McDaniel will interview with the Buccaneers for their open offensive coordinator job, Jordan Schultz of The Schultz Report reports. He has also interviewed for head coaching jobs with the Falcons, Ravens, Titans and Browns and an offensive coordinator job with the Lions. The Eagles are expected to have interest in McDaniel for their open offensive coordinator job, per Schultz. The Dolphins fired McDaniel after going 35-33 in his four seasons, with an 0-2 playoff record. He was the offensive coordinator of the 49ers in 2021 after being the team’s run game coordinator from 2017-20. |
| NFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES RAMSAaron Schaatz says the Rams have gone from first to worst as far as rookie classes are concerned: 32. Los Angeles RamsThe Rams were No. 1 on this list a year ago. This year’s draft wasn’t quite as productive, in part because the Rams traded away their first-round pick. Second-round tight end Terrance Ferguson missed the first couple of games then gradually worked his way into the lineup. However, his 231 receiving yards and three touchdowns were behind a number of other rookies in a very good season for rookie tight ends. Third-round defensive end Josaiah Stewart had 22 combined tackles and three sacks. Seventh-round wide receiver Konata Mumpfield had 10 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Undrafted free agent linebacker Shaun Dolac made an impact, particularly early in the season. The Rams’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College2/46 Terrance Ferguson TE Oregon3/90 Josaiah Stewart EDGE Michigan4/117 Jarquez Hunter RB Auburn5/148 Ty Hamilton DT Ohio State5/172 Chris Paul Jr. LB Ole Miss7/242 Konata Mumpfield WR Pittsburgh |
| SAN FRANCISCOLB FRED WARNER could be coming to rescue the 49ers defense. Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com: — One day after his 21-day practice window was opened, San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner made it clear Wednesday that he hasn’t ruled out returning from a fractured and dislocated right ankle as soon as Saturday night. Upon opening Warner’s practice window Tuesday, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan said it was done with an eye toward a return for the NFC Championship Game should the Niners beat the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional round. Warner, speaking to local media Wednesday for the first time since injuring the ankle Oct. 12, suggested he could be back even sooner. “We’re taking it day by day,” Warner said. “I think they said last week they weren’t going to open my window, and then my window is now open. So yeah, we’re just taking it day by day.” According to Warner and others, there are still multiple health checkpoints he must clear before he can return. Those might make playing Saturday a bit ambitious, but much will depend on how the next couple of days go. Asked whether he is concerned that his return is happening too fast and that he could risk reinjury, Warner demurred. “Everything up to this point has been in direct communication with the doctors, the trainers, everybody involved with my surgery,” Warner said. “Nothing up to this point has been done just out of just, ‘Hey man, let’s just go out and do it.’ … Everything is scientifically based, right? So anytime you step out there on a football field … that’s what this game is, a violent game. But at the same time, I’m not going to go out there and put myself at an added risk if I’m not ready.” From an emotional standpoint, Warner’s possible return comes at a good time for the 49ers, especially after tight end George Kittle landed on injured reserve this week with a torn right Achilles. At the team’s Tuesday walk-through, teammates and coaches said Warner’s presence was palpable. Wednesday should offer a better gauge on where Warner is in his recovery, as the Niners are expected to have something closer to a full-speed practice. San Francisco will practice again Thursday before traveling to Seattle on Friday. “Just pure energy,” defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said. “Fred is the ultimate energy giver, so just having him out there is awesome. … Today, obviously with higher tempo, it’ll be fun to get him out there and see him running around.” If Warner’s return must wait, the onus will again fall to veteran Eric Kendricks to start at middle linebacker. Garret Wallow, who replaced injured weakside linebacker Dee Winters (ankle) last week, could start against the Seahawks depending on whether Winters continues to progress. Warner, meanwhile, plans to keep pushing to make a return that once seemed exceedingly unlikely this season into a reality. “I feel amazing,” Warner said. “Just so grateful, blessed to be back. I think obviously when all this happened, I didn’t really think about the possibility of returning in season, but the way things progressed and being able to have this opportunity to be back with my teammates and have a chance at helping them win this week and so on and so forth, that’s my only goal going forward.” |
| AFC NORTH |
| CLEVELANDThe Browns actually had quite the rookie class, no matter what you think of the two quarterbacks. Adam Schatz of ESPN.com: 2. Cleveland BrownsUsually, the teams that lead in total points by rookies are going to be led by a quarterback. That’s not the case here. Rookie quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders both came out with negative total points and terrible QBRs (31.3 for Gabriel, 19.0 for Sanders). Those would have been the bottom two ratings in the league if Gabriel and Sanders had enough pass attempts to qualify. The star in Cleveland was a linebacker. Second-round pick Carson Schwesinger is the clear favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year and was second in total points among all rookies. Schwesinger’s 156 combined tackles led all rookies by more than 50. He was joined on the defense by first-round defensive tackle Mason Graham, who started the entire season and improved significantly in November and December. Undrafted defensive tackle Adin Huntington also made an impact. Meanwhile, the offensive skill positions for the Browns were filled with rookies. Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. was probably the best, with 72 receptions for 731 yards and six touchdowns. The Browns also had wide receiver Isaiah Bond and running backs Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson. The Browns’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/5 Mason Graham DT Michigan2/33 Carson Schwesinger LB UCLA2/36 Quinshon Judkins RB Ohio State3/67 Harold Fannin Jr. TE Bowling Green3/94 Dillon Gabriel QB Oregon4/126 Dylan Sampson RB Tennessee5/144 Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado |
| PITTSBURGHEvidence that Mike Tomlin was a great coach of (or considering the lack of further closure) that he wasn’t: StatsGuyDanielThe Steelers only played 1 meaningless game where they were already eliminated from postseason contention during Mike Tomlin’s 19-year tenure as head coach (Week 17 2012). 1 out of 309 games over 19 years. Just insane.– – -Pittsburgh didn’t hit much in their draft in 2025 per Aaron Schaatz of ESPN.com: 28. Pittsburgh SteelersThe surprise for the Steelers is that they didn’t get more out of first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, who missed six games with various knee injuries. He ended the regular season with 27 combined tackles and three sacks but should be more of a force in future seasons. Instead, the most valuable Steelers rookies were elsewhere on the defense. Fourth-round outside linebacker Jack Sawyer had 34 tackles, a sack and two interceptions. Fifth-round defensive end Yahya Black had 28 combined tackles and two forced fumbles. Third-round running back Kaleb Johnson had just 28 carries for 69 yards and infamously forgot to field a kickoff, which led to a Seahawks touchdown in Week 2. The Steelers’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/21 Derrick Harmon DT Oregon3/83 Kaleb Johnson RB Iowa4/123 Jack Sawyer EDGE Ohio State5/164 Yahya Black DT Iowa6/185 Will Howard QB Ohio State7/226 Carson Bruener LB Washington7/229 Donte Kent CB Central Michigan |
| AFC SOUTH |
| JACKSONVILLEThe Jaguars surged in 2024 without much help from the rookies per Aaron Schaatz of ESPN.com’s ranking of the rookie class: 31. Jacksonville JaguarsOh, what might have been if Travis Hunter had stayed healthy. The No. 2 pick did realize his goal of playing both ways at wide receiver and cornerback but suffered a knee injury during practice in October that ended his season. He finished with 298 receiving yards and a touchdown, plus 15 combined tackles and three passes defensed. Otherwise, the top Jaguars rookie was fourth-round running back Bhayshul Tuten, with 307 rushing yards and seven combined touchdowns in 15 games. Safety Rayuan Lane III had 20 combined tackles, while seventh-round center Jonah Monheim started two games and undrafted edge rusher Danny Striggow started two games with 0.5 sacks. The Jaguars’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/2 Travis Hunter CB/WR Colorado3/88 Caleb Ransaw CB Tulane3/89 Wyatt Milum G West Virginia4/104 Bhayshul Tuten RB Virginia Tech4/107 Jack Kiser LB Notre Dame6/194 Jalen McLeod LB Auburn6/200 Rayuan Lane III S Navy7/221 Jonah Monheim C USC7/236 LeQuint Allen RB Syracuse |
| AFC EAST |
| MIAMIOffers plural: @JoePomplianoMiami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross told Bloomberg he has received offers worth close to $15 billion for the NFL team. That is nearly 2x more than the team’s most recent valuation (and would be by far the most expensive sports team sale in history). |
| NEW ENGLANDOne key to New England’s turnaround was a fine rookie class. Adam Schatz of ESPN.com: 4. New England PatriotsLet’s start with the left side of the offensive line. The Patriots got 13 starts out of left tackle Will Campbell (first round) and left guard Jared Wilson (third round) before they were injured in the final few games of the season. Campbell was below average in pass block win rate (88.3%), and Wilson (93%) was close to average for guards. Both were below average in run block win rate. Nonetheless, Campbell and Wilson were significant upgrades at their positions for the Patriots. New England’s other rookie who got a lot of attention was second-round running back TreVeyon Henderson. He had 180 carries for 911 yards and nine touchdowns. Four of his carries were touchdowns of 50 or more yards. But the player that total points registers as the most valuable is fourth-round safety Craig Woodson. He started 15 games and made 79 combined tackles with three passes defensed and two fumble recoveries. Other rookies included third-round wide receiver Kyle Williams, fourth-round tackle Joshua Farmer, sixth-round kicker Andy Borregales and two undrafted free agents in edge rusher Elijah Ponder and wide receiver Efton Chism III. The Patriots’ 2025 draft picksRound/Pick Name Pos College1/4 Will Campbell OT LSU2/38 TreVeyon Henderson RB Ohio State3/69 Kyle Williams WR Washington State3/95 Jared Wilson C Georgia4/106 Craig Woodson S California4/137 Joshua Farmer DT Florida State5/146 Bradyn Swinson EDGE LSU6/182 Andres Borregales K Miami7/220 Marcus Bryant OT Missouri7/251 Julian Ashby LS Vanderbilt7/257 Kobee Minor CB Memphis |
| THIS AND THAT |
| DANTE MOOREQB DANTE MOORE probably isn’t taking a pay cut here. Grace Raynor and Nick Baumgarner of The Athletic on his decision to spend another year at Oregon: Oregon quarterback Dante Moore announced Wednesday afternoon that he will forego the NFL Draft and stay in school for another year. His announcement comes five days after the Ducks lost big in the Peach Bowl to Indiana in a College Football Playoff semifinal and gives Oregon head coach Dan Lanning his biggest news of the offseason. Moore made his announcement on ESPN’s “SportsCenter.” “It was very tough,” he said. “Since I was a 4-year-old, I’ve dreamed of playing in the NFL, and of course, the NFL is something that the professionals play at, and I feel like I could have been excited … wherever I got drafted, being blessed to be where I am. But I kind of feel l like coming back is the best thing for me, to make sure that when that day does happen, that I’m fully prepared, I’m able to go and play my best ball.” Moore, a redshirt sophomore, was expected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Even after a disappointing Peach Bowl performance, in which he threw a pick six on the first play and had two costly fumbles in a 56-22 blowout loss, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler still pegged him as a potential top-three overall pick. He finished the season 296-of-412 passing for 3,565 yards with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. With his decision to return, the Ducks should be Playoff contenders again as they continue to chase that elusive national championship. Moore, who transferred to the Ducks in 2024 after one year with UCLA, was a five-star recruit coming out of high school. He spent last season backing up Dillon Gabriel before taking over in 2025. Oregon recently signed Nebraska transfer and former five-star recruit Dylan Raiola, who will now likely back Moore up in 2026. NFL Draft impactAnd, just like that, the 2026 NFL Draft class — from a QB perspective — looks a lot like the 2025 class. With Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza starring as Cam Ward, and … no one starring as a clear QB2. Moore didn’t have a great day against Indiana in the Playoff, but had he declared, he’d have been no lower than QB2 and likely a top-10 selection in this spring’s draft. He very well may have been QB1 on some draft boards, as he’s younger than Mendoza and potentially has a higher athletic ceiling. With Moore back at Oregon, though, the number of QB prospects who can reasonably be considered as a top-10 selection has been split in half. Alabama’s Ty Simpson looked great through Halloween before stumbling down the stretch in his only season as a college starter last fall. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss could wind up as a huge riser, not unlike former Rebel Jaxson Dart — possibly even up to QB2. Could someone take a chance on either late in the first? Sure. From there, we start talking about players like LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, North Dakota State’s Cole Payton, Miami’s Carson Beck and perhaps, even, Penn State’s Drew Allar. Those are intriguing quarterbacks — but none of them are close to being a first-round or even a firm day two lock. The Raiders should still be in good shape to draft Mendoza if they’d like. The Jets still have a slew of early picks in 2027 and need a ton, so waiting for a QB might not be the worst idea there. The Cardinals and Browns had better crank up the scouting work, because there are no clear first-rounders beyond QB1 this year. — Baumgardner |
| PLAYOFF TEAM CONFIDENCE RATINGSA group of NFL.com experts say they have the most confidence in the Seahawks among the eight remaining playoff teams: Each of the editors behind NFL.com‘s weekly game picks column (Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr) ranked every team still in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy according to one specific criteria: Who do we think is most likely to end up as the last team standing? Our hierarchies were combined to form the list below, presented in reverse order. 8 San Francisco 49ersNo. 6 seed · 13-5Total confidence score: 7 pts (of a possible 40)Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh have deftly navigated an injury-plagued season to capture 13 total wins and a spot in the Divisional Round. They’re my respective picks for Coach of the Year and Assistant Coach of the Year. So don’t take San Francisco’s spot in our ranking as an indictment of the staff or a minimization of the players’ performances to this point. It’s merely an honest assessment of the Niners’ current circumstance: Down multiple star contributors on both sides of the ball, they have the smallest margin for error of any surviving team. Even if this banged-up squad, playing on short rest, can win at No. 1-seeded Seattle on Saturday, it still then would have to beat either the Bears or the Rams — two clubs that posed major challenges for San Francisco during the second half of the season — on the road before it can even clinch a date with the AFC champion in the Super Bowl. At least that game would be at home. If any of these eight remaining clubs is equipped to overcome such steep odds, it’s Shanahan’s gritty outfit. But performing near perfection in three straight matchups — with so many missing pieces — seems like too much to ask. As Gennaro said while we were discussing our ballots, the Niners should receive two Lombardi Trophies if they’re able to get across the finish line.— Ali Bhanpuri 7 Denver BroncosNo. 1 seed · 14-3Total confidence score: 12 pts (of a possible 40)This probably seems pretty low for a team that lost three games all year and gripped the top spot in the AFC standings for the final five weeks of the regular season. Their defense is a force (fifth in the NFL in EPA per play in the regular season), and their offense is respectable (10th in EPA per play). So what gives? Well, their schedule to date featured just six games against playoff-qualifying opponents, including two of their losses — and it’s not like they rampaged through the year, compiling a league-high 11 one-score wins and a point differential (+90) that stands below the rest of the surviving AFC field (+170 for the Patriots, +116 for the Bills and +109 for the Texans). Then there’s Bo Nix, who didn’t exactly dazzle down the stretch, throwing more TD passes than picks in two of his last nine games leading into his second career postseason start. The advantages of being the No. 1 seed are real, but can Denver rip off another winning streak against more dominant, experienced opponents, starting this weekend with the Bills? We have to pencil in a big, fat “TBD” for now, which is why the Broncos sit here.— Tom Blair 6 Chicago BearsNo. 2 seed · 12-6Total confidence score: 15 pts (of a possible 40)Back in Week 8, the Bears were blown out, 30-16, by Tyler Huntley and the Ravens in Baltimore. They’ve been in every game since, with all three losses in that span coming by 7 points or less. Chicago’s made a habit of obliterating deficits in an instant, thanks to the proven ability of Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson to get into a sudden groove, plus the defense’s preternatural knack for creating takeaways (though, encouragingly, the team did not need to force a single turnover in Saturday’s delirious wild-card win over the Packers). Can the Bears win against anyone? Sure — I personally ranked them higher than my colleagues in large part because I’m a sucker for swashbuckling overachievers, and they’ve demonstrated the kind of never-say-die swagger that can carry a team far in a single-elimination tournament. But I also have to acknowledge that this is not exactly the most rock-solid formula for postseason success, especially with this particular path including a fifth-seeded Rams team that played much of the season like a No. 1, followed by either the Seahawks’ suffocating D or a rematch of Week 17’s intense defeat to the Niners. (And losing Ozzy Trapilo and T.J. Edwards won’t make things any easier.) After all, one can’t mount a comeback without first falling behind, and Chicago has a tendency to give up yards (6.0 per play, 29th in the NFL) and points (25.4 per game, 23rd) in bunches. The possibility of magic keeps the Bears from the bottom; the threat of being steamrolled by a more established power keeps them from rising higher.— Tom Blair 5 Houston TexansNo. 5 seed · 13-5Total confidence score: 18 pts (of a possible 40)After another uneven performance from C.J. Stroud and Co. on Wild Card Weekend, with Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins suffering a concussion, Houston’s offense does not breed confidence. The defense, on the other hand, commands respect across the globe — at least according to Calen Bullock. “Shoot, I think everybody knows we are the best defense,” the Texans safety said after his unit completely stifled Pittsburgh in Monday’s 30-6 win, which was highlighted by a pair of defensive touchdowns, including one by Bullock himself. “The whole world knows that.” Citizens of Seattle and Denver might feel differently, but Bullock’s bullishness certainly isn’t unfounded. Houston finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring D (17.4 ppg, just behind Seattle’s top mark of 17.2). The Texans arguably have the best edge-rushing duo (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter) and cornerback combo (Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter) in the league. Furthermore, heavy hitters Azeez Al-Shaair and Jalen Pitre set the tone for a group that flies to the football like a pack of rabid DOGS. If defense really does win championships, Houston’s a top-tier contende.s— Gennaro Filice 4 New England PatriotsNo. 2 seed · 15-3Total confidence score: 26 pts (of a possible 40)The Patriots are arguably the most well-rounded team remaining in the AFC field. They are extremely well-coached, operate at a high level in all three phases, control time of possession and, of course, are led by an MVP-caliber quarterback. They are also merciless, boasting the third-best point differential of the regular season (+10.0 per game) and tying Seattle for the most wins by a three-score margin (6). Mike Vrabel’s rugged group epitomizes the football axiom control what you can control. However, one factor that was not in the Pats’ control, their schedule, has been the source of their biggest question mark: Is their impressive win total merely the result of having played the NFL’s easiest slate (.391)? We generally don’t think so. But the Patriots are just 2-2 against teams with a winning record (including Sunday’s playoff victory over the beat-up Bolts). That lingering unknown and the uncertainty surrounding Christian Gonzalez’s availability for Sunday (concussion), makes us slightly more deferential to the chances of the unflappable Josh Allen and his battle-tested Bills — who won at Foxborough in mid-December — finishing as conference champions. After all, No. 17’s playoff bonafides are not up for debate.— Ali Bhanpuri 3 Buffalo BillsBuffalo BillsNo. 6 seed · 13-5Total confidence score: 27 pts (of a possible 40)In a year where there is no truly dominant force in the AFC, the Bills — despite being the sixth seed — lead our ranking among the conference’s four teams remaining in the playoffs. In the interest of full disclosure, I had the Patriots one spot higher than Buffalo on my personal ballot, largely because the Bills will not play at home again this season. It’s been 20 years since an AFC team won three straight road games to make it to the Super Bowl (2005 Steelers). We’ve seen such a run more recently in the NFC (2020 Buccaneers), but still, it’s a tall task for any squad. The great equalizer, of course, is Josh Allen. Even a banged-up version of the reigning MVP is awfully tough to beat, as the Jaguars just learned. And the news this week of DT Ed Oliver’s potential return from injury had to be sweet music to the ears of Bills Mafia. If Allen keeps doing his thing and Sean McDermott gets his best defensive player back, the Lombardi might not be so elusive for Buffalo anymore.— Dan Parr 2 Los Angeles RamsNo. 5 seed · 13-5Total confidence score: 36 pts (of a possible 40)As the only remaining team in the field with a Super Bowl-winning head coach and quarterback, Los Angeles has skins on the wall where it matters most. The Rams also boast a balanced offense and a potent pass rush, two more key ingredients to a winning postseason formula. And compared to some of the other battered rosters in the Divisional Round, L.A. is in a pretty decent place health-wise. So, what are the Rams’ biggest concerns? The third level of the defense (coverage is less than sticky) and third phase of the game (special teams have been a disaster). Not to mention, life on the road. The No. 5 seed just eked out a win at Carolina, and now the team from Southern California must brave the winter elements in Chicago. If the Rams pass that test on Sunday, they’ll face a rubber match against a division rival — whoever wins 49ers-Seahawks — with another roadie if Seattle advances. But in a wide-open postseason, Los Angeles still feels like the most well-rounded team, with savvy coach Sean McVay and MVP front-runner Matthew Stafford possessing the kind of invaluable experience that should travel.— Gennaro Filice 1 Seattle SeahawksNo. 1 seed · 14-3Total confidence score: 39 pts (of a possible 40)Seattle’s road got slightly easier when the 49ers upset the Eagles over the weekend. The NFC’s top seed now hosts a beat-up San Francisco outfit that just lost another star player (George Kittle) to injury, and Seattle overpowered that division foe in Week 18. Having to then face either Los Angeles or Chicago — both of whom looked real iffy at times on Wild Card Weekend — in Seattle to advance to the Super Bowl feels more than ideal. Plus, the Seahawks boast the NFL’s top scoring defense, allowing 17.2 points per game, and that unit is as trustworthy as any remaining in the field. The offense has continually proven it can handle any situation and win with the run game behind Kenneth Walker IIIand Zach Charbonnet or by leaning on Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the aerial attack. I still find myself wanting to doubt Darnold after last year’s catastrophe, but he keeps proving me wrong for the better. Now it feels that even if he’s not at his best, this TEAM is good enough to win it all. — Brooke Cersosimo |
