The Daily Briefing Thursday, January 20, 2022

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Chad Graff of The Athletic connects the dots between the Steelers and QB KIRK COUSINS:

The Minnesota Vikings are still in the process of interviewing candidates for their vacant general manager position, a process that kicks into high gear this week with interviews nearly every day. But as the ownership group and search committee confer with candidates, one topic will surely continue to come up: Kirk Cousins.

The team’s quarterback has one year remaining on his contract, which comes with a $45 million cap hit. While the Vikings will ask many big-picture questions of their GM interviewees, they’ll also want to know what the candidates think of Cousins.

Essentially, the Vikings have three options regarding their starting quarterback: extend Cousins, which could lower his 2022 cap hit; let Cousins play out the final year of his contract while preparing for a new quarterback, a move that makes it difficult to field a better roster next year but would provide ample cap space after that; or trade him.

A trade involving Cousins would be delicate and complicated, and there are different variations of that trade option. So, let’s take some guesses at what a Cousins trade could look like and what the Vikings might expect in return for their starting quarterback.

The Vikings pay none of Cousins’ salary

This is the first option, though perhaps the least likely for a couple of reasons, but let’s start with the general parameters of a trade. Though Cousins’ cap hit for 2022 is $45 million, $10 million of that comes in the form of a bonus. So even if the Vikings retain none of Cousins’ salary-cap hit, they’ll be on the hook for $10 million of dead money, and the team that receives Cousins would take on a $35 million cap hit.

I wanted to find another recent deal to compare a prospective Cousins trade to, and many around the league pointed to the 2018 deal that sent Alex Smith to Washington, coincidently to replace Cousins. Smith was traded for a third-round pick and a young player who had been taken in the third round two years earlier — so essentially two third-round picks. Like Cousins, Smith had one year left on his contract. Cousins is 33. Smith was 33 when he was traded.

But there are two additional things to keep in mind. The first is that Cousins is better than Smith was; thus, in theory, he should be worth more than Smith. But the second is that Cousins’ cap hit is considerably higher. Smith’s cap hit was $18.4 million, or 10.3 percent of the salary cap back then. The $35 million cap hit a team would incur by taking on Cousins would be 16.8 percent of the projected $208 million salary cap for 2022. Very few teams have the space to take on a player with that large of a hit.

Because of that, the number of teams capable of making a trade for Cousins without the Vikings taking on additional money is slim. The top options for a Cousins trade seem to be the Broncos, Steelers and Panthers, with a couple of other teams perhaps marginally interested. The Panthers wouldn’t have enough cap space to incur an additional $35 million. The Broncos and Steelers barely would, but that’s without factoring in free agents or a rookie draft class.

Because of that, it seems fair to think Cousins’ trade value without the Vikings incurring any more of his salary cap would be two Day 3 picks — just a little bit less than what Smith was traded for.

The Vikings pay $20 million

The Vikings would be able to retain a higher portion of Cousins’ cap hit by increasing his bonus. So if they gave Cousins an additional $10 million bonus, for example, a trade involving Cousins would leave them with $20 million in dead cap, and Cousins would go to his new team with a $25 million cap hit. That’s a much more reasonable number for opposing teams to take on and would place Cousins more in line with his production. The players with a cap hit of around $25 million in 2022 are Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz.

Cousins’ trade value would go up significantly in this scenario because of the more manageable cap hit. It just means that the Vikings would have to be willing not only to take on $20 million in dead cap but also to pay Cousins the $20 million in real money, a steep check for the owners, who will still be paying Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer after firing them with guaranteed money left on their contracts.

But a high second-round draft pick would be appealing to the Vikings in this scenario. Last year, Sam Darnold was traded for a second-round pick and two Day 3 selections while he had a $4.7 million cap hit in 2021 and an $18.8 million cap hit in 2022. Though the first year of that is significantly cheaper than Cousins’ deal, the 2022 cap hit wouldn’t be all that different from Cousins’ in this scenario. And Cousins is a much better quarterback.

It’s also fair to note that if Cousins were traded, the team acquiring him would probably want to work out an extension for him, opting against simply playing him in the final year of his contract. When Washington traded for Smith, it immediately signed him to a four-year extension.

But if the Vikings retained $20 million of Cousins’ $45 million cap hit, it’s conceivable that they could get a high second-round pick and multiple Day 3 selections in return, or potentially even a conditional first-round pick, based on whether Cousins’ new team reached the playoffs.

The Vikings pay $25 million

It’s worth noting again that it might be hard for ownership to stomach not only $25 million in dead cap but also paying Cousins $25 million in real money to leave. But the upside is big if the Vikings are willing to give Cousins a $15 million bonus in addition to the $10 million they’re already obligated to provide.

Last year, Wentz was traded for a third-round pick and a conditional second-rounder that became a first-round pick after Wentz played more than 75 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps. That gave the Eagles a first- and third-round pick in exchange for Wentz, who had three years left on his deal with about a $27 million cap hit each year. Cousins is a better quarterback than Wentz and in this scenario would come with a $20 million cap hit, less than Wentz’s.

So if the Vikings were willing to retain this much in dead cap, it’s conceivable that they could get a first-round pick and an additional Day 2 selection in exchange for Cousins. With a new regime taking over in Minnesota, two first-round picks and two second-round picks could be extremely valuable as they look to rebuild on the fly.

With two first-round picks (they have the No. 12 selection), the Vikings would be in a position to move up the draft board if they find a worthy quarterback. Or they could roll the dice with Kellen Mond or a cheaper free agent and use two first-round picks elsewhere.

The $25 million in dead cap would be a tough start for the Vikings’ new leadership, but it would probably net a first-round pick along with some other selections.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

This seems like an over-reaction by NFL Justice.  Liz Roscher of YahooSports.com:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has been fined $50,000 for slapping the helmet of his own player during the Bucs’ 31-15 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The slap happened in the third quarter of the game. Eagles punt returner Jalen Reagor muffed the punt (not the only time he’d do that during the game), which resulted in a loose ball. And when there’s a loose ball, an enormous pile of football players isn’t far behind. A scrum ensued as everyone tried to grab the ball, and safety Andrew Adams, who wasn’t in the pile, started pulling Eagles players off the mound of bodies.

That’s when Arians came in and slapped Adams’ helmet.

While we knew what we were seeing in the lead-up to the slap, we didn’t know why Arians had actually done it. He briefly cleared it up after the game, telling the media that he was trying to stop Adams from getting a penalty.

With this slap reportedly costing him $50,000, Arians might want to consider a less violent (and less expensive) way to get a player’s attention during intense moments. A tap on the arm or shoulder could work, but if he wants something more emphatic, maybe he should invest in some Nerf darts.

Slap? Take a look: here.

Is that a tap or a slap?  Whatever it was, there was no chance of harm.  $50,000 is a lot of moola.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

When Tim Kawakami started writing this column in The Athletic, he didn’t think the 49ers could win at Lambeau Field on Saturday night.  By the time he was done, he thinks there’s a chance:

The 49ers almost beat — maybe should’ve beat — Green Bay back in September with Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell combining for two carries, both by Samuel, for zero yards. That sounds crazy, right? There’s more.

The 49ers almost beat the Packers back then with rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas so far from a starting role that even Kyle Shanahan would’ve bet that he wouldn’t be playing until next season. They almost beat the Packers without getting a tackle or pressure from Arden Key, long before he turned into one of the 49ers’ most reliable pass rushers this season.

You remember this part: If not for a brilliant and blisteringly fast Aaron Rodgers drive, and some questionable 49ers’ pass defense, to set up the winning field goal as time expired, the 49ers would’ve defeated the Packers at Levi’s Stadium in Week 3. But do you remember this? It’s so long ago that Shanahan was still giving occasional snaps to Trey Lance, who scored the 49ers’ first touchdown on that day, a 1-yard run behind Trent Williams on the final play of the first half to narrow Green Bay’s lead to 17-7 in an eventual 30-28 Packers victory.

Which is a long way of saying that the best reason to think the 49ers have an honest shot against the Packers at Lambeau Field in the divisional round on Saturday evening is to remember exactly how well the 49ers matched up with the Packers back then, when the 49ers were far from firing on all cylinders.

“I feel like we’re a different team now than we were then,” Shanahan said Monday. “As everybody is. You start out the year and you go through a number of different players and things like that. … I think we’re in a better spot now than we were in at that time.”

Of course, the Packers can absolutely say the same thing, especially because they played the first 16 games of the season without star left tackle David Bakhtiari but got him back in the lineup two weekends ago. Then they rested during their bye last weekend as the NFC’s No. 1 seed and are facing a 49ers team that had to fight through two grueling do-or-die games on the road to get the right to play in Lambeau on a short week.

Everybody’s different now than they were in September. Football teams all evolve, absorb injuries, get other players back and then see what they can do in the playoffs. QBs get hot. QBs get mediocre. QBs get shaky. (Well, maybe not those last two parts for Rodgers.)

But the 49ers were tough for the Packers in Week 3, and the 49ers are a much better team now. We all know how much the 49ers’ entire ecosystem depends on their running game; they probably will be able to get Mitchell and Samuel 30 to 40 more combined carries in this game than they did for the previous meeting against Green Bay. That seems kind of large.

Samuel wasn’t fully worked into the running attack early this season; he only had six rushes in the first eight games of the 49ers’ season, including the Packers game, and you might note that the 49ers were 3-5 in those contests. But from the 49ers’ ninth game (the Nov. 15 victory over the Rams) through Sunday in North Texas, Samuel has carried it 63 times for 415 yards and eight touchdowns, while missing the 49ers’ Week 13 loss to Seattle.

And Mitchell missed the Sept. 26 game with a shoulder injury, which explains the 49ers only gaining 67 yards on the ground. (They’re 0-4 this season when they fail to run for 100 yards or more.) What if they can run it against the Packers? It certainly seems possible, because Green Bay gave up a healthy 4.7 yards per carry during the regular season.

Mitchell has gained an average of 100 yards in the 49ers’ last three games. And the tag team with Samuel has produced an average of more than 145 yards on the ground against Houston, the Rams and Dallas.

“The hardest thing is deciding when to give it to him or Elijah,” Shanahan said. “Because Elijah’s pretty good, too. But it’s a problem I’m enjoying having right now.”

Also notable from the Week 3 game: Receiver Brandon Aiyuk was just starting to emerge from Shanahan’s early-season doghouse and Jimmy Garoppolo hadn’t come close to hitting his stride, including perhaps his most bizarre turnover of the season, a weird lateral/flip/intended pass that was scooped up by the Packers and turned into a fourth-quarter field goal.

But Garoppolo also led the 49ers on a TD drive to take a 28-27 lead on a pass to Kyle Juszczyk with just 37 seconds left. At that point, the Packers had no timeouts. And Rodgers still led Green Bay down the field in two passes to set up the 51-yard field goal, anyway.

Will there be a different kind of result with Thomas out there on Saturday? Maybe he’ll get roasted. Maybe he’ll be great.

Thomas has locked into a starting cornerback spot so cleanly that after the Rams victory two weekends ago Shanahan admitted that from what Thomas was practicing like months ago, the coach would’ve never expected Thomas to be in such a big role at crunch time this season. And then on Sunday, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott barely looked Thomas’ way, even with Dallas’ assortment of top-flight receivers.

Meanwhile, Key has 6.5 sacks and 15 QB hits over the 49ers’ last 11 games, helping tie together a defensive line that lost Javon Kinlaw in early October. And we’ll see if Nick Bosa (concussion protocol) and Fred Warner (ankle) can practice this week and then play full speed on Saturday. But the 49ers definitely have better pieces in place than they did in September.

That result left both teams at 2-1 for the season. From there, the Packers charged along to a 13-4 record, clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a bye in the wild-card round. The 49ers, meanwhile, headed directly into what became a four-game losing streak but then rappelled themselves to 10-7, a wild-card spot and rambunctious victory over Dallas on Sunday.

The 49ers are underdogs for this game and should be underdogs. The Packers can absolutely play better than they did in Week 3. Rodgers is a tough guy to beat in any situation, and at Lambeau in the playoffs might just be an impossible obstacle for the 49ers to clear this time. But there are reasons for the 49ers to believe this is far from impossible. They just have to look back to September and some of the things about themselves back then that they can barely recognize now. And the many things about themselves that are much, much better.

SEATTLE

Last year, Pete Carroll fired his offensive coordinator.  This year, he jettisons his DC.  Nick Selbe of ESPN.com:

After posting their first losing record since 2011 and missing the playoffs for just the second time in 10 years, the Seahawks announced Tuesday they had relieved defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. from his duties. Defensive passing game coordinator Andre Curtis was also let go.

Seattle ranked 28th this season in total yards allowed per game (379.1) and 20th in opponents’s passer rating (93.6), while forcing just 18 takeaways.

“Defensively, we didn’t start fast enough in this season again,” Carroll said after the team’s season finale, per ESPN’s Randy Henderson. “That’s two times in a row we didn’t start fast enough, and we found ourselves and put up some good numbers that indicate how you’re playing. Just all of that just didn’t happen soon enough.”

Norton had held the defensive coordinator position since 2018. He was an assistant on Pete Carroll’s staffs at USC from 2004-09, then came over to Seattle with him as the team’s linebackers coach. He left the Seahawks to become the defensive coordinator for the Raiders in 2015, and returned three years later.

Curtis had been with the Seahawks for seven seasons, starting as an assistant secondary coach before becoming the defensive backs coach in 2017. He took over as defensive passing game coordinator in 2018.

More on who could replace Norton and how Carroll has changed coordinators during his reign in Seattle from Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times:

Along with firing Norton comes an apparent desire to get back to being more aggressive after a season in which the Seahawks forced just 18 turnovers, more than just seven other teams, and had just 34 sacks, more than only eight other teams.

Within about eight hours of the news of the firing of Norton came reports that Seattle had already requested to interview Broncos defensive coordinator Ed Donatell and Bears defensive coordinator Sean Desai.

Each work for teams without a head coach, leaving them in limbo and possibly soon looking for new jobs. Sources say Seattle could also look to promote defensive line coach and assistant head coach Clint Hurtt.

But will fixing the defense be as easy as changing coordinators?

This will be the seventh time the Seahawks have changed either an offensive or defensive coordinator in Carroll’s 12 years.

Have those changes worked?

Let’s take a look.

2011: Offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates fired, Darrell Bevell hired.

Comment: After Carroll’s first year, when the Seahawks finished 28th in yards and 25th in points — and maybe most important, 31st in rushing offense — Carroll jettisoned Bates, who had come with him from USC. Echoing what he would later say about most changes, Carroll said the firing was “really a philosophical issue. We needed to move into a different direction.”

Carroll didn’t wait long to find a replacement, hiring Bevell three days later. Bevell had never worked with Carroll but had been with the Packers when GM John Schneider was there. He was hired with the specific task to improve the running game, having been the OC the previous five years with the Vikings when Minnesota had one of the best running attacks (OK, having Adrian Peterson helped a lot, too). Carroll also hired Tom Cable as offensive line coach, and the Bevell/Cable duo did indeed eventually transform Seattle’s running game into one of the best in the NFL, particularly once Russell Wilson and a heavy dose of the zone read arrived.

2013: Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley leaves to become head coach at Jacksonville, Dan Quinn hired.

Comment: With Seattle emerging as the best defense in the NFL in 2012, Carroll wanted as seamless of a transition at DC as he could find once Bradley moved on, and got it by bringing back Quinn. In fact, the hiring of Quinn was announced roughly three hours after it was announced Bradley had left. Quinn had good relationships with many players already having been defensive line and assistant head coach in 2009-10 — he’d left to become the DC at Florida — and proved the perfect choice to keep the train rolling.

2015: Quinn leaves to become head coach of the Falcons, Kris Richard promoted.

Comment: After Quinn left following Seattle’s second straight Super Bowl appearance, Carroll kept it in house, promoting Richard, who was the defensive backs coach and had the vocal endorsement of all of the key members of the Legion of Boom secondary. Norton appeared to be the only other candidate, but a couple days before Richard’s hiring was announced, Norton was hired as DC of the Raiders, making it clear the job was going to Richard, then 35.

2018: Bevell, Richard fired. Seahawks hire Brian Schottenheimer as OC, Norton as DC.

Comment: In the wake of a 9-7 and playoff-less season in 2017, Carroll cleaned house, also firing Cable. Any objective view of Bevell’s overall Seattle tenure is that it was a success — the 2015 and 2014 teams remain 1-2 in team history in yards gained and average yards per play despite the perception that the Seahawks just rode their defense during that time.

But in terms of perception, Bevell also had a hard time overcoming the ill-fated final play of the second Super Bowl. And after six years of the defense ranking in the top five in both fewest points and yards allowed, the 2017 unit fell out of the top 10 in each. Injuries to Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril contributed heavily.

“We felt that it was time,” Carroll said then. “It really comes back to competing and finding ways to get a little bit better. That’s why we made those choices.”

On defense, Carroll again kept it in-house, bringing back Norton, while reaching outside to try to fix the offense hiring Schottenheimer, with whom he had no significant prior relationship. Mike Solari, whom Carroll had worked alongside with the 49ers, was brought in to replace Cable.

2021: Schottenheimer fired as OC, Shane Waldron hired.

Comment: Schottenheimer initially did what he was supposed to do — revive the rushing attack. Due in part to injuries ravaging the running backs corps, Seattle had just one rushing TD in 2017 from someone other than Russell Wilson. Seattle improved from 23rd in rushing in 2017 to first in 2018.

But the season ended in the disappointment of a wild card playoff loss at Dallas in which many felt the Seahawks stuck to the run too long. Still, Seattle finished in the top nine in scoring each of Schottenheimer’s three years. But Schottenheimer was fired following yet another playoff disappointment, the wild card home loss to the Rams a year ago with Carroll echoing what he’d said after the firing of Bates, attributing it to “philosophical differences” without specifying what those were.

For the third time in his Seattle career, Carroll hired an OC he had no real prior relationship with in Waldron, who’d been an assistant with the Rams. Seattle had struggles on offense this year ranking 16th in points scored, second-lowest of the last 10 years.

But Wilson’s injury obviously makes it difficult to really judge the impact of the coordinator change, and Waldron will get at least another season in 2022 to show what he can do.

Here are the first four candidates for the job per Condotta:

Add a fourth name to the Seahawks’ list of potential new defensive coordinators to replace the fired Ken Norton Jr. — Joe Whitt Jr., who is the secondary coach and defensive passing-game coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys.

The Seahawks put in an official request to interview Whitt on Wednesday, according to a report from the NFL Network.

It was reported that the Seahawks have put in requests to interview Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Ed Donatell and Bears defensive coordinator Sean Desai. Each work for teams whose head coaches have been fired, leaving them in limbo and possibly needing a new job. Sources have also said Seahawks defensive-line coach and assistant head coach Clint Hurtt will be considered.

Whitt has no previous ties to Seahawks coach Pete Carroll.

But he did work for two seasons at Green Bay when Seahawks general manager John Schneider was there, part of an 11-year tenure with the Packers.

Whitt, 43, just finished his first year with the Cowboys under former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who is the DC.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

The NFL wants the law suit of Jon Gruden thrown out of court, either permanently or shuttled into arbitration.

As expected, the NFL filed its response to former Raiders coach Jon Gruden’s lawsuit on Wednesday. As expected, the league takes the position that the case should be thrown out of court.

The league has filed a pair of motions. One to dismiss the lawsuit on the merits. Another to force the litigation into arbitration.

The motion to dismiss calls Gruden’s lawsuit “baseless,” and it argues that the case “should be dismissed for failure to state a single viable cause of action.” In other words, the league claims that, even if all of Gruden’s allegations are true, there’s nothing under the law that can be done about it.

The motion calls Gruden’s claims a “made-up conspiracy theory” that the league leaked Gruden’s emails to Washington executive Bruce Allen in an effort to hurt Gruden. More specifically, the NFL argues that the truth of the information disseminated by the league is a defense to any claims of intentional interference with his business relationships, that the NFL was not prohibited from disclosing emails he voluntarily sent to Allen, and that Gruden has not sufficiently alleged that the NFL engaged in any type of actionable negligence.

The separate motion to compel arbitration focuses on Gruden’s employment contract and the NFL’s Constitution and Bylaws. The argument is simple; the league believes Gruden doesn’t have the right to pursue his claims in court.

Gruden will now have an opportunity to file a response to these motions. Eventually, oral arguments likely will be held. The league could secure an outright victory, or it could force Gruden to pursue relief via arbitration, a forum far more favorable to big-money interests that hope to avoid a jury of regular people who would have the power to hold the league accountable for its alleged misbehavior.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

We missed this when he published it last week, but Mike Florio makes a good point about the firing of David Culley:

In a statement issued on Thursday, Caserio said that he “came to this difficult but necessary decision after reviewing our football operation,” and that the team and Culley “had philosophical differences over the long-term direction and vision for our program moving forward.”

Philosophical differences? Baloney. Culley, whose ship finally came in after decades in coaching, was in no position to take a stand on anything. He’s the last guy who was going to draw a line in the sand, leveraging his (checks notes) four wins into a power play. He allowed himself to be micromanaged all year long. Why would he be saying other than “OK” regarding whatever Caserio wants to do?

We’ve seen flashes of self-serving spin that has been pushed by the team to employees of the media conglomerate the Texans partially own regarding the philosophical differences. We’re not even going to mention them here. It’s crap. It’s bunk.

They hired Culley to hold the job for a year, and then to fire him. They can’t even get the story straight as to how much he gets paid to walk away, with different reporters pushing different figures, ranging from one year to four years.

But, hey, at least they posted a heartfelt and genuine “thank you” to Culley on social media.

Yes, “thank you, Coach Culley.” Thank you, for playing along with our ruse to hire you only to fire you after a year, because we didn’t want to saddle a competent coach with a disastrous roster under the lingering shadow of Deshaun Watson‘s discontent.

Thank you, Coach Culley. Now please gather your personal effects and vacate the premises for good.

That said, Culley was making in the hundreds of thousands of dollars per year as an aging assistant.  For being used for one year, reports say he will collect $17 million over the rest of his contract.

AFC EAST

NEW YORK JETS

In a draft that seems to be slim at the top, but deep with adequate prospects – it is no big scoop to proclaim that the Jets, or any other team, would like to move down. Ralph Vacchiano of SNY:

10. JETS (via Seattle Seahawks) – Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson

It’s too early to know anything, but I’ve heard rumblings that the Jets prefer to trade this pick if they can. And while they could use it to bring back a player (like, maybe a No. 1 receiver), I think it’s more likely they trade down and see if they can pick up an extra No. 1 pick for next year. If the quarterbacks start to fall – as many predict they will – teams will start to hyperventilate and will start offering a lot to move up (like the Bears did with the Giants last year), so Douglas could take advantage.

Also, there’s no consensus No. 1 receiver on the board and no slam-dunk like Ja’Marr Chase a year ago. When that happens to a position group, players fall, so the Jets could drop to, say, 16, where the Eagles may want to move up with one of their three draft pics and the Jets could still get one of the top two receivers on the board. But since it’s too early for any of that, for now I’ll give the Jets a 6-foot, 190-pounder who had 70 catches for 1,058 yards and 12 TDs last year.

THIS AND THAT

BROADCAST NEWS

CBS and Nikolodeon drew big numbers for their Sunday afternoon telecast of NFC football.  Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic:

The San Francisco 49ers’ victory over the Cowboys on Sunday has been tallied as the most-watched NFL wild-card game on any network in seven years. CBS Sports and Nickelodeon averaged 41.496 million viewers across both networks.

This year’s broadcast was up +35% versus last year’s comparable game. The audience peaked with more than 50 million viewers (50.229) for the game’s conclusion. The previous record for viewership was during the Cowboys and Lions wild-card game in 2015, which brought in 42.320 million viewers.

The first time Nickelodeon broadcasted an NFL game on its channel was for the Bears and Saints wild-card game last season. The Nickelodeon broadcast drew an average of 2.06 million viewers, with a total of 30.65 million across CBS and Nickelodeon.

Could the NFL expand the Nickelodeon broadcasts into the regular season?

Dan Kaplan, business writer: Alternate broadcasts are all the rage, whether it’s the Manningcast on ESPN2 for Monday Night Football or Nickelodeon for a wild-card playoff game. The rationale is to lure a different type of viewer, in Nick’s case the pre-teen set. The question is does it do that, or does it just shift viewers around? There is no easy answer, but one data point to highlight is Nick’s viewership actually fell from 2.061 million last year to 1.33 million this year. That’s a big drop while overall viewership was surging. That suggests the jointly-owned NFL and CBS may be content to keep the slime broadcast a one-time event, already having an NFL-themed show airing during the season on Nick.

Reason(s) for the big spikes from last year?

Kaplan: Dallas Cowboys fans and the Jones family weren’t the only ones lamenting the team’s penalty-filled playoff loss: TV executives were too. There is a reason the Cowboys’ moniker is America’s Team; they are ratings gold. From a TV perspective the question wasn’t would the game surpass last year’s like-window, but by how much. Throw in the San Francisco 49ers, a close game, and the unforgettable finish, and that’s a mixture for a robust number. The 50 million watching at the end is about half of a Super Bowl rating. Moving forward, NFL playoff ratings will be solid, but without the Cowboys don’t expect eye-popping results.

2022 DRAFT

A two-round Mock Draft from Dane Brugler of The Athletic:

In most NFL Drafts, there are five to seven top-tier prospects who make up the “upper class” and will be the first players drafted. That is followed by 12-15 “middle class” players who might not be elite but received first-round grades from teams and project as solid NFL starters.

The bad news is the 2022 NFL Draft is missing those “upper class” prospects — there is no Joe Burrow or Myles Garrett or Ja’Marr Chase this year.

The good news is this year’s draft is well-stocked with “middle class” first-rounders — players with NFL starting traits who will make impacts as rookies.

Not having those top-tier players in this class will make the first-round, especially the top 10, even more unpredictable than usual. There are surprises every year, but we should expect them early in the 2022 NFL Draft as draft boards from team to team might look wildly different.

Editor’s note: The order of picks 1-24 and 33-56 are official. The order for picks 25-32 and 57-64 is based on playoff seeding and will depend on the outcome of the NFL playoffs.

FIRST ROUND

1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

After numerous conversations with NFL scouts and league execs in preparation for this mock, there were two key takeaways that led me to Ekwonu here. First, there are several evaluators around the league who have Ekwonu ranked higher than Alabama’s Evan Neal and Mississippi State’s Charles Cross. Second, several evaluators agreed that in a draft class missing a no-brainer top prospect, they prefer the tackles over the pass rushers. I have no clue how the Jaguars feel, but Ekwonu at least belongs in this conversation.

A three-year starter at NC State, Ekwonu has impressive movements for his size and generates extraordinary explosion at contact. He lacks refinement and is guilty of over-setting, but he is nimble, powerful and should get better and better as his technique and awareness mature. Ekwonu’s tape shows a tackle who can also play guard, not the other way around. For more on Ekwonu, this deep dive from Bruce Feldman is a great read.

2. Detroit Lions — Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan

A Week 18 victory against the Packers meant the Lions lost the No. 1 overall pick, but there is a decent chance that the top-ranked player on Detroit’s draft board will still be available at No. 2.

Hutchinson isn’t on the same level as the Bosa brothers — he doesn’t have the same bend or arc skills. However, there are similarities when you talk about their quickness, power and skilled hand play to defeat blockers and disrupt the pocket. Hutchinson can win in multiple ways and is wired in a way that will appeal to head coach Dan Campbell.

3. Houston Texans — Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon

Is there a quarterback in this draft class who is a clear upgrade over Davis Mills? I don’t think so, and I doubt the Texans will either. Thibodeaux isn’t universally loved around the league, but he is one of the more talented players in this draft. He knows how to create leverage as a pass rusher due to his length and athleticism and is highly physical vs. the run.

Fans expecting Myles Garrett or Chase Young will be disappointed, but that doesn’t mean Thibodeaux can’t make an immediate impact of his own.

4. New York Jets — Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

The Jets could go in a number of different directions here. Alabama’s Evan Neal could start at right guard as a rookie and be the long-term answer at right tackle (and provide Mekhi Becton insurance at left tackle). But Stingley would give the Jets a cover man with the talent to be a legitimate No. 1 cornerback, something the franchise has missed since Darrelle Revis.

Stingley set the bar high after his All-American freshman season as part of LSU’s national championship team. And although the last two seasons haven’t gone according to plan, the talent is still there. Stingley’s draft stock is extremely volatile right now, and his interviews and medicals will ultimately determine whether he is drafted this high or falls out of the top 10.

5. New York Giants — Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Slowly but surely, Andrew Thomas is progressing at left tackle, but the right tackle spot was a glaring weak spot for the Giants this past season. Nate Solder has likely played his last snap with the franchise, and Matt Peart hasn’t done enough to keep the Giants from finding an upgrade this offseason.

Neal has functional experience at guard and both tackle spots and would be an immediate improvement on the Giants’ offensive line depth chart. His balance will fade as the play progresses, but he has a rare mix of size, athleticism and flexibility to make plays in pass protection and the run game.

6. Carolina Panthers — Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

If the Panthers strike out on their quarterback options in free agency and on the trade market, this could be the spot where we see the first quarterback drafted. This is Carolina’s only draft pick in the top 100, putting even more pressure on Matt Rhule and the organization to get this selection right.

Cross is talented enough to be OT1 on some team’s draft boards. He has the athleticism and movement patterns to be comfortable pass-blocking on an island, and his hands are well-timed and precise. Cross should be able to start from day one as a rookie.

7. New York Giants (from Chicago) — Kyle Hamilton, DS, Notre Dame

Safety isn’t the most glaring need on the Giants’ depth chart, but with a new general manager and head coach, they will be looking to draft impact players, above everything else, in the top 10. And Hamilton might be the most talented player in the draft, regardless of position.

At 6-3 and 218 pounds, Hamilton is a super-sized safety with the range and length to be a matchup weapon in the NFL. Though his physical traits stand out, it is his football IQ that is most impressive, sensing what is about to happen and being disruptive.

8. Atlanta Falcons — David Ojabo, edge, Michigan

Predictably, the Falcons finished dead-last in the NFL in sacks this season as they sorely lack the edge rush talent to keep offenses off-balance. Still young in football years, Ojabo is still a work in progress, but he has the talent level right now to stress blockers.

Polling several NFL personnel people for this mock, the feedback on Ojabo was he won’t be a top-10 pick because of his struggles vs. the run and his relative inexperience. But I’m betting on his ceiling at a premium position to bump him up in this draft class.

9. Denver Broncos — Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

The Broncos said “no thanks” to Justin Fields and Mac Jones at No. 9 overall last year. Will they pass on the quarterback position again a year later? We’ll see if Denver is able to find an upgrade at the position prior to the draft or if it buys into one of the quarterbacks in this draft class.

Denver landed an impact defender with the ninth pick last year, and it could do that again with Lloyd. A former safety, he has outstanding eyes and explosion to drive downhill (22.0 tackles for loss in 2021) and the athleticism to make plays in coverage (four interceptions, two pick-sixes in 2021).

10. New York Jets (from Seattle) — Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

With all due respect to Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios, when they are your most productive pass-catchers, you officially have a wide receiver problem. Quarterback Zach Wilson must show improvements in year two, but he also needs the front office to find him more help.

I have six wide receivers ranked as top-25 prospects in this class, with Wilson as the clear No. 1 guy. He has only average size (6-0, 186), but he is a three-level threat due to his athleticism and ball skills. What separates him the most is his ability to create space before and after the catch.

11. Washington Football Team — Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Washington has a poor track record of drafting quarterbacks in the early rounds. Since the merger in 1970, the franchise has drafted eight quarterbacks in the top 100 picks, and only one (Jay Schroeder) of the eight had a winning record with the organization. That means Washington is due, right? Pickett doesn’t have an explosive arm, but he is accurate from various platforms and his football IQ makes him NFL ready.

12. Minnesota Vikings — Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Opinions are split around the league if Gardner belongs in the top-15 or if he should come off the board in the back-half of round one. The Cincinnati corner was a three-year starter and didn’t give up a touchdown in over 1,100 coverage snaps in college. Gardner gets a little handsy, but he has the long-striding speed and hip-flip to stay on top of routes.

13. Cleveland Browns — Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

The Browns passing offense desperately needs another playmaker and Burks has the ability to create big plays. He has an outstanding blend of size (6-3, 228) and speed (4.45) with the tracking skills and catch radius to be a quarterback’s best friend. Burks, who led the SEC with 22 plays of 20-plus yards in 2021, reminds me of a linebacker-sized Deebo Samuel.

14. Baltimore Ravens — Travon Walker, DL, Georgia

Good players just seem to fall to the Ravens in the draft, right? That is the case here because it wouldn’t surprise me if Walker ends up being one of the best defensive players from this draft class. With players like Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams set to hit free agency, the Ravens’ defensive line could look very different in 2022.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) — Tyler Linderbaum, OC, Iowa

Obviously, this selection is based on the future of Jason Kelce, who just earned his fourth All-Pro nod. Even if he returns for his age 35 season in 2022, Kelce would be the ideal mentor for Linderbaum, who has exceptional quickness and a nasty streak to dominate defenders.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis) — Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

With Steven Nelson headed for free agency, cornerback could be a need for the Eagles this offseason. Booth is a terrific athlete and can make plays on the ball — the two most important traits when scouting the position. Booth also has above-average downhill skills to drive and blow up plays near the line of scrimmage.

17. Los Angeles Chargers — Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

Do the Chargers make the playoffs if they receive better play at right tackle over the final month of the season? Penning has a massive frame (6-7, 329, 35-inch arms) with the athletic footwork and competitive chops to develop into a Pro Bowl-level player.

18. New Orleans Saints — Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

The Saints are in limbo with their quarterback situation, but Corral could be the answer that Sean Payton has been looking for. The Ole Miss quarterback has the athleticism of Taysom Hill coupled with an explosive arm and passing instincts to create big plays through the air.

19. Philadelphia Eagles — George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue

The Eagles’ defensive end depth chart will likely look wildly different next season, and Karlaftis would be a welcomed addition. The Purdue pass rusher doesn’t have elite length or twitch, but he is relentless and strong with hand work that is not only violent but also well-timed and strategic to defeat blockers.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers — Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

With Ben Roethlisberger likely having played his final game in a Steelers’ uniform, there is a “Quarterback Wanted” sign hanging on the front of Heinz Field. Although Howell’s junior season didn’t go exactly according to plan, he has NFL-level arm talent and mobility and is ready to step in as the Steelers’ starter from day one.

21. New England Patriots — Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

Generally, Bill Belichick prefers bigger-bodied linebackers, but what Dean lacks in size he more than makes up for with play speed and football smarts. And anyone who watched the Patriots’ playoff loss to the Bills knows they need more of both at linebacker.

22. Las Vegas Raiders — Drake London, WR, USC

Derek Carr was playing well enough for the Raiders to make a postseason run, but he needed another playmaker in the playoff loss to the Bengals. London, who was averaging 11 catches and 135.5 yards per game before his injury, has the basketball athleticism to play above the rim and be a chain-mover.

23. Arizona Cardinals — Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

At 6-6 and 360 pounds, Davis is a hard-to-move space-eater with the power to reestablish the line of scrimmage. He might be drafted higher if a team believes he can sustain his high level of play with an increased snap count (he averaged only 25.2 snaps per game in 2021), but Davis is a dominant run defender when on the field.

24. Dallas Cowboys — Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

Left guard Connor Williams, who probably played his final game in Dallas on Saturday, was a liability for most of the Cowboys’ wild-card game, and the 49ers took advantage. Although Green played predominantly at left guard for the Aggies, he also logged starts at left tackle, right tackle and right guard in 2021 and would give Dallas a versatile blocker who can fill in at several positions if needed.

25. Cincinnati Bengals — Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Maybe this is an overreaction to watching Vernon Hargreaves trying to cover the Raiders, but with Eli Apple a pending free agent, cornerback could be in the mix here. McDuffie doesn’t have great ball production, but there weren’t many opportunities because he prevents throws by blanketing his side of the field.

26. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco) — Jermaine Johnson, edge, Florida State

The Dolphins drafted an edge rusher in the first round last year but could do it again if they lose Emmanuel Ogbah to free agency. Johnson has the length, agility and violent hands to be disruptive as both a pass rusher and run defender.

27. Buffalo Bills — Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Giving a weapon like Williams to Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense hardly seems fair. Wide receiver isn’t at the top of the Bills’ needs, but it would be tough to pass on Williams’ talent if he were to fall this far due to his recent torn ACL. Teams will have more information about his knee and surgery at the scouting combine.

28. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles) — Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

I don’t think the Lions will feel pressured to take a wide receiver here, especially with the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown over the final month of the season. But Olave and his polished play style would give Detroit an immediate playmaker for an offense in need of them.

29. Kansas City Chiefs — Daxton Hill, CB/FS, Michigan

With Tyrann Mathieu, Charvarius Ward and Mike Hughes about to hit free agency, the Chiefs’ secondary might look a little different next season. Hill is not only an option at safety, but he played a slot cornerback role for the Wolverines and can do the same in Kansas City, which would allow L’Jarius Sneed to play outside full-time.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Logan Hall, DL, Houston

Hall is one of the more underrated prospects in this draft class, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is long gone by this pick. Personally, I like him best as an edge rusher where he has a little bit of a runway and can unlock his quickness and length. But Hall would give Tampa flexibility on the defensive line as Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen has called him “one of the best” defensive tackles he has ever coached.

31. Tennessee Titans — Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

With his twitchy athleticism and route-running skills, Dotson consistently puts cornerbacks in conflict. Although he is undersized and won’t break many tackles, he has the dynamic speed and ball skills that will give the Titans another dimension on offense.

32. Green Bay Packers — DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M

The Packers love toolsy front-seven defenders, and Leal is exactly that. He isn’t yet the sum of his parts, which is why he could still be available at this point in the first round. But at 6-4 and 290 pounds, Leal can line up anywhere on the defensive line and has the traits to develop into a productive starter.

SECOND ROUND

33. Jacksonville Jaguars — Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

34. Detroit Lions — Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

35. New York Jets — Bernhard Raimann, OT/G, Central Michigan

36. New York Giants — Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

37. Houston Texans — Kenneth Walker, RB, Michigan State

38. New York Jets (from Carolina) — Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State

39. Chicago Bears — George Pickens, WR, Georgia

40. Denver Broncos — Myjai Sanders, edge, Cincinnati

41. Seattle Seahawks — Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

42. Washington Football Team — Darian Kinnard, OT/G, Kentucky

43. Atlanta Falcons — Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

44. Cleveland Browns — Drake Jackson, edge, USC

45. Baltimore Ravens — Nicholas Petit-Frere, OT, Ohio State

46. Minnesota Vikings — Kingsley Enagbare, edge, South Carolina

47. Indianapolis Colts — Carson Strong, QB, Nevada

48. Los Angeles Chargers — Phidarian Mathis, DT, Alabama

49. New Orleans Saints — Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

50. Miami Dolphins — Damone Clark, LB, LSU

51. Philadelphia Eagles — Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming

52. Pittsburgh Steelers — Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

53. Las Vegas Raiders — Christian Harris, LB, Alabama

54. New England Patriots — John Metchie, WR, Alabama

55. Arizona Cardinals — Cameron Thomas, edge, San Diego State

56. Dallas Cowboys — Jaquan Brisker, DS, Penn State

57. San Francisco 49ers — Lewis Cine, DS, Georgia

58. Cincinnati Bengals — Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State

59. Buffalo Bills — Sean Rhyan, OG, UCLA

60. Denver Broncos (from Los Angeles) — Marcus Jones, CB, Houston

61. Kansas City Chiefs — Arnold Ebiketie, edge, Penn State

62. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

63. Atlanta Falcons (from Tennessee) — David Bell, WR, Purdue

64. Green Bay Packers — Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State