The Daily Briefing Thursday, January 26, 2023

GREEN BAY

It’s not exactly an endorsement of being traded, but QB AARON RODGERS says he “won’t have animosity” if he’s sent out of Green Bay. Garrett Podell of CBSSports.com:

Amid reports about the Green Bay Packers front office considering a trade of 39-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the four-time NFL MVP had an empathetic reaction when asked about it on “The Pat McAfee Show.” That tone is stark contrast to his public feud with the team’s management prior to the 2020 season, after the team traded up to draft quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

“It’s taboo to talk about some of these ideas but to be open to the possibility that, if I want to keep playing, that it might be somewhere else, I understand that,” Rodgers said Tuesday. “I understand they might want to move on and go younger at a number of different positions. That’s a part of it.”

“I have nothing but love for the fans and the amazing people I’ve met over the years at different events. It’s a beautiful, beautiful town. So, I think there’s been a lot of fun dreaming about retiring as a Packer because there’s something really special about that. But if the competitive hole still needs to be satiated and it’s time to move on, then I hope everybody would look at that with a lot of gratitude and not any resentment.” 

“Or, even on the flip side, ‘Let’s f—ing get rid of this old guy. It’s time to move on.’ I hope there’s some gratitude on both sides if that happens.”

Rodgers signed a three-year, $150M extension with the Packers last March and is due close to $60 million in 2023. He also went out of his way in his first end-of-season comments to clarify Green Bay as his preferred location. Love, who briefly replaced Rodgers due to injury this season, is entering his fourth NFL season after the Packers moved up to make him their first-round draft pick in 2020. The team will also soon have to decide about whether or not to pick up his fully-guaranteed fifth-year option. The front office could be looking to bolster its draft resources and salary cap space after an underwhelming 8-9 finish in 2022 that resulted in the first year without postseason football under head coach Matt LaFleur. 

 “I’ve been there 18 years, I have lifelong friends in that organization,” Rodgers said. “I have lifelong memories. I made some of my closest friends in my life because I was drafted by the Green Bay Packers and they paid me multiple contracts. Had amazing success, I met some really special, special people. So, why would I have animosity toward that? And, on the flip side, hopefully there won’t be any animosity if that was the decision at some point.”   

However, Rodgers hasn’t formed anything close to a wish list of other teams should the front office decide to trade him because he said he’s never had to consider life outside of being a Green Bay Packer before.

“I’ve never been a free agent, which is pretty wild,” he said. “I’ve never gotten to the end of my contract, so to even think about being in another uniform never really crossed my mind…each successive contract was with at least a year remaining on my current deal. There was never time where I was thinking ‘oh I might be in another uniform.’  I have just never thought that way. Even when Jordan [Love] was drafted, I thought that might be a possibility that I might not finish in Green Bay, but then I won two MVPs and obviously seemed a lot less likely. You never know.”

If it’s the team’s preference to go with Love and begin a rebuild instead of a reload with Rodgers given that his performance this past season wasn’t close to what it was during his MVP seasons of 2020 and 2021, Rodgers said he won’t burn any bridges in Green Bay or the state of Wisconsin.

“If they feel like it was in the best interests of the team to move forward, so be it,” Rodgers said. “Again, that wouldn’t offend me and it wouldn’t make me feel like a victim. I wouldn’t have any animosity towards the team. I love the organization, I love the city, I love the region. I’m a minority owner in the Bucks. I’m going to be a part of the region long after I’m done playing. I have a lot of love for what’s gone on in Green Bay. And I’d love to finish there, I would. I might have finished there. Who knows?”   

Ultimately, all talk of Rodgers being traded is hypothetical until he announces his decision about whether or not he wants to play a 19th NFL season. The quarterback noted that he’s taking a pragmatic approach to the decision and taking some time to mull all angles over since Green Bay hasn’t put him on a hard timetable.

“Anytime you make a decision, you have to try and take the emotion out of it,” Rodgers said. “There’s emotions with the end of the season, with the end of certain runs with certain teams, with the end of specific teammates who might be moving on or end of contract. The way the season ends on the field is also emotional, so it’s always important to take time and get away from it. If there was a timetable where I was told I had to make up my mind in two weeks, I would’ve came to a decision. It would’ve been much more difficult for sure… I’ve been playing a little bit less time [than Tom Brady], I think five or six years [five seasons fewer], still think that should warrant some time to make this decision and to weigh all the options…. I need time to decompress and let the offseason sink in and then make that decision. All the other ideas about trade and whatnot is all conjecture until I decide what to do moving forward for myself.

Should the Packers and Rodgers look to part ways after 18 seasons together, a number of AFC teams would likely make a play for the four-time NFL MVP. The Jets, Raiders, Titans and Patriots stand out as logical suitors: New York is positioned for a playoff run but has a pledged need for veteran QB help; Las Vegas is set to trade Derek Carr and last year acquired Rodgers’ top target Davante Adams; Tennessee could move on from Ryan Tannehill; New England is restructuring its offensive staff. 

As to animosity though, there may be some between Rodgers and certain media members like Mike Florio.  Certainly, Florio doesn’t like the implication that he was paid to call Rodgers a liar.

As it turns out, the argument that Damar Hamlin secretly died and was replaced by a double on Sunday wasn’t the craziest shit I heard today.

Thanks to Jimmy Traina of SI.com, who listened to Tuesday’s musings from Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers so that others (like me) wouldn’t have to, Rodgers suggested at one point that the negative coverage he has received in recent months flows directly from Big Pharma.

Specifically, Rodgers tied negativity directed to him to media sponsored by the three providers of the COVID vaccine, given that Rodgers refused to get one — and then lied about it.

“If you take the right sound bite from the right thing and it’s a station that may or may not have in the past been brought to you by Pfizer they gotta make sure their villain gets cast in the correct light,” Rodgers told Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk on Tuesday. “And whether or not they’re sponsored by Pfizer, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson, whatever it might be, when you go up against some of those powers that be, put yourself in the crosshairs, they’re gonna paint you a certain way. And that’s what the media did to me a couple of years ago. That’s fine. That’s their prerogative. That’s what they wanted to do.”

If Big Pharma was giving out big (or small) checks for calling out Rodgers for playing a Greg Brady “exact words” game with reporters so that he could enjoy the benefits of being vaccinated in 2021 without actually being vaccinated, mine must have gotten lost in the mail. For me, the criticism was about the decision to lie about his status, and then to show up in the press room without a mask, in direct violation of league rules.

The rules were the rules. The NFL and the NFL Players Association negotiated them. If Rodgers didn’t like the rules, he shouldn’t have played. Instead, he defied them until he tested positive.

I didn’t like what he did. I didn’t appreciate the blatant dishonesty. I didn’t agree with the juvenile game of “gotcha” he played with reporters by saying “yeah, I’ve been immunized” when asked whether he’d gotten the vaccine.

For people who are really smart (like Rodgers), there’s an obligation to be intellectually honest. In 2021, Rodgers used his smarts in a failed effort to outsmart others.

I don’t need a check from Big Pharma to say that. I’ll do it for free. He lied. He knows he lied. And now he’s trying to obfuscate his lie by pushing a stupid-ass conspiracy theory that anyone who speaks ill of him isn’t doing it because they genuinely believe he lied but because they’re getting paid to do it.

MINNESOTA

Brian Flores is interviewing with the Vikings. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Vikings will interview a couple of defensive coordinator candidates over the next two days.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports on Wednesday that they are interviewing their assistant head coach Mike Pettine for the opening. Steelers linebackers coach Brian Flores is set to interview with the team on Thursday.

Pettine joined Kevin O’Connell’s staff in Minnesota last February. He spent the 2021 season working in Chicago and was the Packers defensive coordinator from 2018 to 2020.

Pettine also went 10-22 over two seasons as the Browns head coach.

Flores has interviewed for the Cardinals head coaching vacancy as well as the defensive coordinator posts in Atlanta and Cleveland.

The Vikings have also interviewed Seahawks associate head coach Sean Desai and Saints co-defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen.

DALLAS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com notes the upheaval on the Cowboys coaching staff:

The best argument for the Cowboys keeping coach Mike McCarthy is that he presided over consecutive 12-win seasons. That argument presumably would also apply to the various members of the coaching staff who now find themselves out of work.

In addition to senior defensive assistant George Edwards and running backs coach Skip Peete, the Cowboys have parted ways with offensive line coach Joe Philbin, assistant defensive line coach Leon Lett, and assistant head coach Rob Davis, according to Clarence E. Hill, Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

As PFT noted earlier in the week, the contracts had expired for all but four members of the coaching staff. But it’s still a firing, as a practical matter, to not offer them new contracts.

And it makes me wonder whether something else is going on behind the scenes. Something like owner Jerry Jones discreetly lining up the replacement for the head coach before firing the head coach, because Jones will fire the head coach only if he gets the replacement Jones wants.

In unrelated (or not) developments, Sean Payton’s candidacy with the four teams that had expressed interest in his services seems to have become bogged down, by something.

The DB usually doesn’t think like this, but we feel compelled to note that all five coaches are 54 years old or older.  And that all but Philbin are Black.

PHILADELPHIA

After drawing attention with his sideline behavior on Saturday night, WR A.J. BROWN insists he didn’t cause a “commotion.”  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown got a little dinged up in Saturday’s Divisional Round win over the New York Giants.

Though he didn’t go into detail regarding the ailment, Brown said Wednesday he’ll be good to go in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game against the visiting San Francisco 49ers.

It was a bit of a bruised ego that was more noticeable against the Giants, as Brown was visibly dismayed on the bench during a blowout win and was seen being talked to by head coach Nick Sirianni.

It’s simply the nature of the playmaker in Brown, the two-time Pro Bowler explained on Championship Wednesday.

“They throw the ball to me 100 times, I’m going to want it 101 times,” Brown said, via ESPN’s Tim McManus. “Me personally, I just feel like I can change the game at any moment. Getting the ball often keeps you going, keeps you in a rhythm. It definitely puts you in a zone; you’re locked in. Of course, I want the ball.”

A prototypical NFL No. 1 receiver wanting the ball no matter the situation is hardly a novel concept, nor is the stereotypical “diva” wideout becoming a distraction. Brown underscored that he’s not the latter.

“I’m never the receiver to go on the sideline or try to cause problems on the sideline. I’m not that guy,” Brown said. “I think that’s what you could describe as a diva, but I’m not that person.”

In Philly’s 38-7 thumping of New York, Brown had a paltry three catches on six targets for 22 yards. The other half of the Eagles’ terrific tandem at wideout, DeVonta Smith, led the team with 10 targets, six catches, 61 yards and a touchdown. Nice numbers, but hardly eye-popping production as the Eagles won handily after scoring the game’s first 28 points.

Acquired via trade on draft night, Brown’s first regular season in Philadelphia was of the sensational variety. He earned his second Pro Bowl nod, set a franchise single-season record with a career-best 1,496 yards receiving, matched his career high of 11 touchdown catches and his 88 receptions and 145 targets were also tops in his career by wide margins.

Still, it’s unlikely Brown’s wants and demands for the ball are going to be expunged no matter the numbers and it’s unlikely the Eagles want that. But with an NFC Championship Game days away and the potential of achieving the team pinnacle of winning the Super Bowl still alive and well, Brown was certain to point out he’s not a distraction-causing diva.

“I’m a guy who goes up and talks to the quarterback and talk to the [offensive coordinator] and do it that way,” he said. “I’m not a guy that’s going to cause commotion on the sideline. That’s not who I am. I’ll never be that guy.”

ATLANTA

Ryan Nielsen is a new name on the interview front.  The Falcons have talked to Nielsen, the Saints’ defensive line coach and co-coordinator about their DC job:

The Atlanta Falcons said they were going to take their time finding a new defensive coordinator, and that’s exactly what they’ve done thus far.

After interviewing Brian Flores last week, the team interviewed Saints co-defensive coordinator/defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen on Tuesday, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported.

Nielsen, 43, joined the Saints as the defensive line coach in 2017 when Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot was still in the front office. In 2021, Nielsen was promoted to assistant head coach and then named co-defensive coordinator in 2022.

The Falcons must replace Dean Pees, who retired over the offseason after serving two seasons as Atlanta’s defensive coordinator.

Nielsen has also been interviewed by the Vikings for their DC job.

CAROLINA

Frank Reich and Steve Wilks are still in the running in Carolina.  Sam Robinson of ProFootballRumors:

This year’s methodically paced NFL head coaching search will now produce second interviews for the Panthers’ top staff position. Steve Wilks and Frank Reich are among the finalists.

The Carolina interim HC and the former Colts HC are the first known finalists for the full-time gig and will each go through second interviews Wednesday, Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero of NFL.com note (Twitter links). Wilks gained steam throughout his interim run, while Reich has interviewed with both the Panthers and Cardinals.

Carolina is believed to be targeting experience with this year’s hire, which certainly makes sense after its Matt Rhule whiff, but Rapoport adds (via Twitter) Cowboys OC Kellen Moore impressed Panthers brass during his first interview. It would not surprise to see Moore, then, book a second interview. But he does not bring the experience Reich and Wilks do.

Although Wilks generated extensive support to keep the gig, the Panthers have already begun interviewing defensive coordinator candidates. They have spoken with Vic Fangio and requested interviews with Kris Richard and Marquand Manuel. Wilks’ background is on the defensive side, and Al Holcomb served as Carolina’s interim DC in the wake of the Phil Snow firing. The Panthers already taking steps to interview defensive bosses — and not move toward addressing its OC — points to the team making post-Wilks plans. Carolina has long been connected to an offense-oriented hire, but Wilks going 6-6 in his interim chance and not receiving strong consideration would likely have gone over poorly among Panthers players.

Reich stands to have options — either as a head coach or coordinator — in the coming days and weeks. Should he strike out on securing a second head coaching opportunity this year, teams have been connected to the five-year Colts coach for OC openings. The Chargers, Jets and Rams have been connected to Reich in some capacity. Both the Bolts and Jets gigs come with play-calling responsibilities, but Reich said soon after his Colts dismissal he wanted to stay on the HC level. The Panthers have already discussed staff options with Reich, per CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson, and SI.com’s Albert Breer notes the veteran play-caller has gained steam throughout this process (Twitter links).

This component may not matter too much as the team looks to regain its footing after the seven-year Rhule deal backfired, but both Wilks and Reich have ties to the Charlotte area. Wilks grew up in the city, while Reich spent the 1995 season with the Panthers’ inaugural edition. Reich’s brother also is the head coach at Wingate, a college in the area.

TAMPA BAY

Here is the latest on the Tampa Bay OC job, that includes an interview with Klint Kubiak.  Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have begun their search for a new offensive coordinator, interviewing the Denver Broncos’ Klint Kubiak for that position on Wednesday at the AdventHealth Training Center.

Kubiak spent last season as the Denver Broncos’ passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Former Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett turned over play-calling duties to Kubiak in late November. After scoring a league-low 13.8 points per game through Week 13, the Broncos averaged 24.2 points per game from Week 14 on, ranking 11th in the NFL in that span.

Kubiak is seeking his second stint as an NFL offensive coordinator. Prior to joining Hackett’s staff last year, he spent the 2021 campaign as the Minnesota Vikings’ coordinator, succeeding his father, Gary Kubiak, who retired after the 2020 season. The younger Kubiak had spent the previous two seasons as the Vikings’ quarterbacks coach on Mike Zimmer’s staff. In Kubiak’s one season guiding the offense, the Vikings ranked 12th in total offense, 11th in passing offense and 14th in scoring. While Kubiak was quarterbacks coach, Kirk Cousins threw for 7,868 yards and 61 touchdowns over two campaigns.

JoeBucsFan.com has this on the reaction of Bruce Arians to the offensive shakeup:

Joe can only imagine the F-bombs flowing from Bucco Bruce Arians when he found out a bunch of his former assistant coaches got fired by Todd Bowles.

The disrespect!

But Joe knows Arians is a realist, not a mafia Godfather. He knows what happens when talented teams struggle mightily under a new head coach. Heads roll.

Heck, Arians told NBC Sports insider Peter King 10 months ago that he thought the Bucs were likely to finish 10-7 in 2022 if Tom Brady missed some time with an injury. And that kind of record wouldn’t be good enough to give Arians the in-house muscle to hand off the head coaching job to Todd Bowles in 2023, so Arians did it last year.

Instead, the Bucs went 8-9 with Brady healthy and were embarrassed in the playoffs. So Arians should have expected change.

TampaBay.com reporter Rick Stroud told WDAE Radio this week that Arians is pissed off by the firings.

“Not happy. Very unhappy. Extremely unhappy,” Stroud said.

“Having had some interaction with him about it … he’s disappointed. You know, he’s disappointed. I guess that’s the biggest thing. You know, he wanted Todd to have this opportunity. He wanted to keep this staff together. He wanted these [coaching] families to be together; many of them have another year on their contracts. Many of them thought they would be here as long as Todd is the head coach, were told as much, and that’s not the case. And so he’s hurt by it. I don’t know if you’re going to see him around much next year.”

The next tell on Arians’ involvement at One Buc Palace likely will be at the NFL Scouting Combine in late February. If he’s not there in his role as advisor to the general manager, then it’s a safe bet Arians is officially prioritizing his 9-iron over his red pen.

This from JC Cornell, countering with the Todd Bowles view:

JC Cornell

@CornellNFL

So Bruce Arians is upset about the firings. A lot of those people are family.

In defense of Todd Bowles.. this is his second attempt at being a HC. We know he was fired in NY. He needs to do whatever he can to be successful in his second stint because a third isn’t happening.

SAN FRANCISCO

Are they resting – or in serious jeopardy of not playing effectively in Philadelphia on Sunday?  Nick Shook of NFL.com on some key 49ers players sitting out practice.

The NFC Championship Game remains days away, which is likely the explanation for why a handful of key 49ers did not practice Wednesday.

Running backs Christian McCaffrey (bruised calf) and Elijah Mitchell (groin), and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) did not take part in the midweek session, while wide receiver Deebo Samuel (ankle) was limited. Speaking with reporters on Championship Wednesday, San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan initially said Samuel would not practice, but the former Pro Bowler got in some reps.

Samuel’s injury is somewhat of a surprise, considering he hasn’t missed a practice since returning from ankle and knee injuries to play in Week 18.

“It’s been there for a little bit,” Shanahan said of Samuel’s ankle issue.

Niners’ depth, talent shine as they defeat Cowboys despite not playing ‘best game’

Samuel followed up Shanahan by telling reporters his ankle is sore, but he has no doubt he’ll be on the field for Sunday’s conference title showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles.

McCaffrey sustained a bruised calf in Sunday’s Divisional Round win over the Dallas Cowboys, and could be seen attempting to stretch the affected calf on the sideline during the game. Mitchell suffered his groin injury in the same game, but still managed to carry the ball 14 times for 51 yards in the victory. San Francisco will hope both can get right in time to face another stingy defense this weekend.

Garoppolo’s lack of participation shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering how much time he’s missed due to a foot injury that was initially believed to be a season-ending issue. Shanahan said Wednesday he does not expect Garoppolo to be able to play this weekend, and with rookie Brock Purdy remaining undefeated as a starter, it’s not a pressing matter.

What remains urgent is a need to prepare to give the top-seeded Eagles their best shot with a chance to return the Super Bowl at stake. This group will dedicate itself to such an effort, as well as generous treatment and rehab with the goal of getting right before Sunday.

– – –

Jeff Eisenberg of YahooSports.com on how the 49ers evaluated QB BROCK PURDY, both prior to the draft and during training camp – and then made the fateful decision to keep him as a rostered #3 quarterback and not a practice squad guy who could have been poached by any other team.

Only days before the NFL’s 53-man cutdown deadline in August, the quarterback now hailed as the San Francisco 49ers’ savior wasn’t even a sure bet to make their roster.

Brock Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, had to beat a well-liked veteran whom the 49ers had just paid lavishly to be their top backup.

On March 11, 2022, the 49ers all but anointed Nate Sudfeld as their No. 2 quarterback by giving him a fully guaranteed $2 million contract. At the time, the 49ers intended to trade incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo to save salary-cap space and pave the way for 2021 first-round pick Trey Lance to take over.

The 49ers valued the 6-foot-6 Sudfeld because of his prototypical size, versatile skill set and obvious rapport with Lance. Sudfeld, a 28-year-old career backup, became a trusted friend and mentor to the raw but talented Lance while spending most of the previous season on the 49ers’ practice squad.

As April’s NFL Draft approached, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch discussed the possibility of adding a third quarterback with one of the team’s final picks. In an interview with Bay Area radio station KNBR earlier this month, Lynch recalled Shanahan telling him, “I’d like to go get another young quarterback just to add into the mix. Let’s try to identify one later.”

Among the options was Purdy, a former three-star recruit who became Iowa State’s starter during his freshman year and maintained his hold on the job until he graduated. By then, he had completed more than two-thirds of his 1,467 passes and thrown 81 touchdown passes while helping carry a long-struggling Cyclones program to four straight winning seasons.

The 49ers scouted Purdy extensively. They interviewed Iowa State coach Matt Campbell and others close to him. Then quarterbacks coaches Brian Griese and Klay Kubiak peppered him with questions during a series of Zoom calls. The 49ers originally planned to target Purdy as their most coveted undrafted free agent, but they changed their minds during the draft after they were able to address more glaring needs at cornerback and along the offensive line.

The NFL awarded the 49ers a league-high five compensatory draft picks in 2022 for losing free-agent players, coaches or executives to other teams. The last of those, the final pick in the draft that bestows the “Mr. Irrelevant” title on one player each year, presented a perfect opportunity to splurge on a quarterback whose accuracy and experience intrigued the 49ers enough that they didn’t want to risk losing him to another team.

“We got there to Mr. Irrelevant, and I think we all just kind of looked at each other and said, ‘Why chance it?’” Lynch recalled.

The 49ers might have been the only team to value Purdy enough to use a draft pick on him, but even they had no inkling of what he’d become. On draft night, Shanahan described Purdy as having “traits very similar to Nick Mullens.” He envisioned Purdy developing in obscurity on the practice squad behind Lance and Sudfeld this season, not starting Sunday’s NFC title game in Philadelphia.

The 49ers’ perception of Purdy’s role began to change when he exceeded expectations during OTAs and training camp. He initially got only a few reps per day behind Lance and Sudfeld, but he turned heads by confidently zipping throws into tight windows.

“Every time he got his one or two reps in practice, he was decisive and got the ball to the right spot and did it aggressively,” Shanahan said Monday. “[He] never seemed unsure of anything, and so he kept earning more reps, and the more reps we gave him, the more he continued to look the same and didn’t take any steps back.”

Those qualities eventually manifested in preseason games, too. Wearing a No. 14 jersey instead of his now familiar No. 13, Purdy engineered a game-winning drive in his debut against Green Bay. He opened more eyes the next two weeks by displaying more agility and athleticism than his college film suggested he had, by making plays with defenders in his face and by enduring crunching hits and popping right back up.

By then, the 49ers had seen enough. Mr. Irrelevant had beaten Sudfeld to become Lance’s primary backup.

“We were going to go into the year with [Purdy] as the No. 2,” Shanahan said in August. “And we were good with that because that’s what he earned.”

Then, out of nowhere, came a surprise announcement: Garoppolo was restructuring his contract and returning to the 49ers. Unable to get any draft picks for Garoppolo via trade but unwilling to let him go for nothing, the 49ers persuaded him to come back for one year as Lance’s backup.

Garoppolo’s return left the 49ers with more decisions to make. Now it wasn’t just choosing between Purdy and Sudfeld to be the backup quarterback. The 49ers had to decide if they would use a valuable 53-man roster spot on either quarterback as a third-stringer behind Lance and Garoppolo.

On Aug. 30, the 49ers cut Sudfeld with the hope that another team would sign him and offset part of the $2 million owed to him. That same day, they announced that Purdy had made the 53-man roster.

That show of faith in Purdy was an early sign that the 49ers believed they had uncovered a late-round gem. They could’ve rostered two quarterbacks and cut Purdy with the intention of signing him to their practice squad, but they couldn’t stomach exposing the seventh-round pick to waivers and giving a rival team an opportunity to claim him.

“It was pretty easy to see how Brock was coming,” Shanahan said Monday. “We knew we wanted to keep him on the roster and not risk him going to the practice squad, so it was a decision we had to make.”

The 49ers also have a legal matter brewing.  Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area:

Defensive lineman Charles Omenihu was back at the 49ers’ practice facility on Wednesday, just two days after being arrested for suspicion of misdemeanor domestic violence.S

Coach Kyle Shanahan said the 49ers will let the legal process play out and if he’s healthy, Omenihu will play Sunday in the NFC Championship Game against the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles. Omenihu was scheduled to go through a limited practice Wednesday due to an oblique strain.

Members of the organization have looked into the allegations involving Omenihu and the club decided no immediate actions were warranted, Shanahan said.

“We feel very good about letting the legal process take care of itself and don’t feel we should kick him off the team at this time,” Shanahan said.

The NFL in a statement said Omenihu remains eligible to play this weekend: “The matter will be reviewed under the league’s personal conduct policy. There is no change to his status.”

Omenihu, 25, whom the 49ers acquired in a 2021 trade from the Houston Texans, has played an important role as a rotational player along the 49ers’ defensive line.

Omenihu was third on the 49ers with 4.5 sacks during the regular season. He leads the team with two sacks in the two playoff victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. Omenihu is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in March.

San Jose Police were called Monday at 4:39 p.m. to investigate a reported domestic violence incident.

An adult female said her boyfriend, Omenihu, pushed her to the ground during an argument. Officers did not observe any visible physical injuries, according to the police report. She declined medical attention but complained of pain to her arm.

Omenihu was arrested and booked into the Santa Clara County Main Jail for misdemeanor domestic violence. He posted bail and was released.

The case will be submitted to the Santa Clara County District Attorney’s Office for possible charges.

INDIANAPOLIS

Josina Anderson of USA TODAY tweets that all the other interviews have not swayed owner Jim Irsay in his desire to anoint Jeff Saturday with the fulltime coaching gig.

@JosinaAnderson

In Indy, I’m told Jim Irsay still has desires to hire Jeff Saturday, but some who work w/ the owner or have his ear, while feeling Saturday is a great person—are not in favor of him as a HC, per source. We’ll see if the #Colts make it through the list of expected 2nd interviews.

Put it this way, if the #Colts make it to next Wednesday without internally finalizing their choice at head coach, then that tells me the balance of conversations are still steadfast in maintaining weight. Obviously, the final say is still Jim Irsay’s, and that’s his right.

We’re still processing “the balance of conversations are still steadfast in maintaining weight.”

MIAMI

Keep an eye out for Vic Fangio emerging as the Dolphins DC.  Tweets from Josina Anderson.

I’m told Vic Fangio is a target expected to receive strong consideration for the #Dolphins defensive coordinator vacancy, per league source. It remains to be seen what Fangio’s response will be.

Vic Fangio is a lead candidate. The “interview” will be more than that. Expected to discuss terms & conditions as well. Mike McDaniel has a strong affinity for him, per league source, again.

Again, we’ll see what Fangio’s response is.

THIS AND THAT

LABOR THOUGHTS

DeMaurice Smith, and Mike Florio, opine on the relationship between the NFL and its players, the league’s primary product:

Via Sports Business Daily, Smith said that fans “don’t understand” the battle between the NFL and its players.

“The league has probably been the largest group of bullies in the labor market in the history of labor in America,” Smith explained. “We have a great business and it’s a multibillion-dollar business and yes, we’ve had people declare war on labor forever, but I don’t know of another business in America that has antitrust exemptions, they answer to no one, . . . there’s no board of directors, there’s no transparency, there’s no oversight. The only people who can ever stand up to the National Football League [are the players].”

Even then, the players will only do so much. As Smith acknowledged, the NFLPA’s “real leverage” comes from the ability to “withhold our services.” But it’s not easy to get players to do that.

“It just comes down to an issue of will,” Smith said. And the reality is that most players will not sacrifice the ability to play football and the ability to get paid to play football in the name of some broader, long-term objective.

And it’s more than that. Smith wants players to stop engaging in gratuitous promotion of the NFL.

“Stop giving away things for free,” Smith said. “When you put your jersey or something else on your Instagram post, I think that’s great . . . but you know who loves it more than you? The NFL and the team. They’re getting full promotion about how much you love the game and how much you love them without them paying you a cent.”

Smith actually described the push and pull between the NFL and the players as a “battle between good and evil,” and that Commissioner Roger Goodell is “not there for the players.”

The NFL continues to benefit from the fact that the fans tend to line up behind the teams, and thus the owners, because players come and go and teams don’t. It makes it easier for the owners to impose their will, because if the players ever exercise their will, the fans will be more upset with the players than the owners.

Frankly, the league could squeeze the players even more than they have. It’s almost as if the league goes a little easy on the players in order to keep the mismatch from becoming even more obvious than it is.

BRADY DESTINATONS

Marc Sessler of NFL.com mulls over possible landing spots, other than the FOX booth, for QB TOM BRADY in 2023:

There’s a couple ways to handle this:

We can craft a list of teams where Tom Brady might wind up come September. Spend our time chewing through the positives and negatives, hashing out scheme fits and weighing which rosters best suit a 45-year-old quarterback who must be protected, or else.

We can do nothing. Simply sit on our hands until Brady makes a move. Passive approach. Gandhi-style.

You’ve visited NFL.com, and the second option is not how we roll. Besides, we might not get another chance to wonder about Brady’s future. Retirement remains an option. Broadcasting games for FOX rests on the horizon. So does playing, though, something Brady has refused to swat down as he heads into free agency.

The Raiders, Titans and Niners loom as reported possibilities, but the NFL offseason doubles as a sandstorm of surprise. General managers east to west are at least pondering the concept of adding the game’s greatest to ever do it.

What is clear: If Brady keeps the cleats on and chooses a team not named below, you can find me next season penning lists of horse brushes and pottery wear for Better Homes & Gardens.

Shall we?

Rank 1A  –  Las Vegas Raiders

It’s the Raiders and everyone else.

Hitting the ejector seat on Derek Carr — a bold move, yet not shocking — told us plenty about how the organization views its future. Owner Mark Davis was reportedly not sold on Carr, who was given an easy-to-escape contract extension. One that would allow hand-picked coach Josh McDaniels to start over under center this offseason.

The seventh overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is another doorway to a quarterback, but Brady’s availability comes at an ideal time. Davis reportedly pursued TB12 last time around, but this time, the presence of ex-Patriot McDaniels gives the Raiders a recruiting edge. Brady would be dipped into a scheme he helped create in New England. He’d be throwing the ball to Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. One slightly pushy Brady phone call to Josh Jacobs should convince this year’s rushing champ to hang around rather than bolt in free agency.

The defense has its issues, the offensive line could use help and there’s a fair amount of suspicion here: Is McDaniels any good at this? Are the Raiders any better than the Bucs? Why mess around with the AFC West? But the combination of coach and scheme would allow Brady to hit the ground running. Among a flock of fringy possibilities, Vegas seems to stand alone as the club that wants him — and would be wanted in return.

Rank 1B  –  Miami Dolphins

No other team on this list features an owner who secretly invited Brady onto a summery yacht for a covert pitch session. Stephen Ross — who was given a suspension, and whose team was docked its 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 third-rounder, after an investigation into the potential violation of league tampering rules by the Dolphins found that Miami had “impermissible communications” with Brady — has long had eyes for our leading man.

The fit is overt. The Dolphins boast a Tyreek Hill-infused chest of weapons inside a Mike McDaniel-led system with Shanahan roots. McDaniel maximized Tua Tagovailoa by scheming wideouts open in a similar fashion to what Brock Purdy has experienced in San Francisco. Hill and Jaylen Waddle would make life easy for Brady.

The TuAnon community would cry injustice, but Tagovailoa is the type of quarterback who keeps an antsy owner wondering: What’s behind Door No. 2? To Ross, the sheer idea of Tom Brady — the imagined future by his side — might be enough to shuffle Miami’s current starter aside.

Rank 3  –  San Francisco 49ers

Named as a potential suitor, the Niners have thought about chasing after Brady before. The idea of pairing him with Kyle Shanahan is alluring, but only if you ignore everything else about San Francisco’s quarterback room. Jimmy Garoppolo is headed for free agency, but the tucked-away Trey Lance is on his rookie deal for two more years. Brock Purdy is making $724,253 to win playoff games. Besides, if this version of Purdy is the model going forward, why toy with fate for a fling with a middle-aged Brady? The weapons, a stout line and San Francisco’s nasty defense check Tommy’s boxes, but the Niners are different from other teams on this list: They don’t need him.

Rank 4  –  Carolina Panthers

PLUS: Another NFC South team

A dark-horse option. I’m imagining a scenario where the Panthers lure in Sean Payton as coach and kick off his reign with Brady under center inside a manageable NFC South. D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr. offer juice at receiver. The ground game turned explosive down the stretch, and you can add a weapon with the ninth overall pick. That said, the ninth overall pick would likely go to the Saints for the rights to hire Payton, which begs the question: Why not stage the same act in New Orleans, where the coach could theoretically come for free, and Brady would be armed with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara?

Rank 5 — Tennessee Titans

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport named the Titans as a candidate. I struggle to see a match. Brady’s age-old connection with coach (and former Patriots player) Mike Vrabel makes for a good story, but Tennessee’s roster is a project. The offensive line — admittedly a banged-up unit — ranked dead last in pass-blocking efficiency and third-worst in generating yards before contact on the ground, according to Pro Football Focus. Treylon Burks aside, today’s Titans are a bare cupboard through the air. Derrick Henry takes heat off the quarterback, but Tennessee in ’23 feels like another signal-caller’s burden.

Rank 6 — New England Patriots

I was prepared to group the Patriots with Tampa as comprehensive nonstarters for Brady’s final ride. The return of Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator, though, ticks New England up the list. Brady knows him well from the five years BOB served in Foxborough, including the season (2011) when he ran the offense. It seems they almost met again in 2022, as the Bucs were reportedly hoping to hire O’Brien if Byron Leftwich had snagged Jacksonville’s head coaching gig. It’s a selling point.

Rob Gronkowski doesn’t see a New England return, though, with the behemoth telling Travis and Jason Kelce’s New Heights podcast: “I would 100 percent be surprised if he went back to New England, no doubt. It would be nuts, it would be a crazy story, but I just really don’t see that happening. But you never know.”

I see another obstacle. Brady returning to the Patriots could be shaped as Bill Belichick waving the white flag. The quarterback left town and won a Super Bowl while his old coach fumbled through three underwhelming campaigns. There’s something poetically perfect about one more run, but it would require everyone to shove their egos aside. Unlikely.

Rank 7  — New York Jets

“I hate the Jets.”

Brady uttered these words more than a decade ago, back when he systematically scattered Gang Green on a regular basis with the Patriots. Today’s Jets make more sense, though, with a star wideout in Garrett Wilson, a playoff-caliber defense and a talented coach in Robert Saleh. Jets owner Woody Johnson is ready to throw a bundle of cash at a proven veteran, but paying middle-tier money for a middle-tier Derek Carr is more reality-based. A blockbuster deal for Aaron Rodgers isn’t out of the realm of possibility, either, but Brady in a Jets jersey tells me the Football Gods have run out of ideas.

UNRANKED:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady spent his final meeting with Tampa reporters thanking them for their time and all but waving farewell to the organization he won a Super Bowl with in 2020. His teammates don’t think he’s coming back, while Julian Edelman — presumably privy to late-night chat sessions like any good BFF — said on Inside the NFL: “If he has another season, it’s not going to be in Tampa Bay.”

BOUNCEBACK TEAMS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com looks at the seven teams that fell out of the playoffs this season and ranks their likelihood of returning in 2023 (as usual with Barnwell, we edited for space):

Seven NFL teams that made the postseason in 2021 failed to return this season. It’s a list that includes the Super Bowl LVI champion Rams, the 1-seeds in both conferences — the Packers and Titans — and seemingly annual attendees in the Patriots and Steelers, along with the Raiders and Cardinals. If we include the Oilers as Tennessee’s predecessor, the last time the Titans, Packers and Patriots missed the postseason in the same year was 1984. It has been a minute.

There’s nothing those teams can do about this postseason, but what about their chances of making it back in 2023? Let’s go through each of those seven and rank their likelihood of making it back to the playoffs. I’ll start with the least likely team and work my way to the most likely.

There are still a lot of decisions that could affect what happens next for each of these organizations.

There’s a large gap between the team in seventh and every other team. If you’re a head-coaching candidate getting calls from a 602 number, consider this free advice:

7. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

It’s bleak. The Cardinals have no head coach. The organization just hired new general manager Monti Ossenfort, but star quarterback Kyler Murray might not be ready to start next season after he tore his right ACL in December. Four of Arizona’s five starting linemen are free agents, as are top cornerback Byron Murphy and breakout defensive lineman Zach Allen. Hall of Fame defensive end J.J. Watt retired, while star wideout DeAndre Hopkins has been the subject of trade rumors. Just a normal offseason for a first-time general manager.

Several weeks ago, I wrote at length about the Cardinals’ roster and how it has been mismanaged by years of shortsighted decisions and misguided draft picks. Little has changed since then: Whomever takes this job is going to face a difficult short-term future, especially if Murray is out for a significant portion of the season.

The best thing for the Cardinals to do? Blow things up and start over while hoping to build a more sustainable offensive infrastructure around Murray in 2024 and beyond. Trading Hopkins, wideout Marquise Brown and safety Budda Baker would net much-needed draft capital to replenish the roster, while a reset would allow the team to clean up its cap after using voidable years to create short-term space in seasons past. Arizona is not one great offseason away from seriously contending in the NFC. This team needs surgery, not Band-Aids.

I’m not sure Ossenfort will go in that direction, but even if he tries to fix the roster, the Cardinals aren’t likely to be competitive in a difficult division. There are major holes on both sides of the football and $15.7 million in cap space to address those concerns. Trading Hopkins would create more than $8 million in space, but some of that likely would go toward an extension for Brown, who will be entering the final year of his contract.

Could the Cardinals surprise? Of course. Murray could be ready for Week 1. They could hire Sean Payton and manufacture a solid offense. A team that went 1-4 in one-score games could flip its record in the close ones. Ossenfort could turn the No. 3 overall pick into a significant haul and nail multiple picks. Turnarounds like that happen, but not often. It’s easier to make an optimistic case for every other team on this list than it is for Arizona.

6. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

The Raiders might have had a disappointing season, but at least it was entertaining. A team that had been fortunate to win so many one-score games in 2021 turned into the ultimate example of how randomness can decide those close games the following season, as nearly every game turned into a dramatic last-second victory or crushing defeat.

In the end, the 2022 Raiders flipped across the aisle and turned into one of the least-lucky teams. They went 4-9 in games decided by seven points or fewer and underperformed their point differential by 1.9 wins. They might have been more competitive if coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler hadn’t benched Derek Carr for the final two weeks of the season to keep his future salaries from guaranteeing because of an injury. By then, though, the die had been cast. They were moving on from their franchise quarterback.

Of course, any analysis of how the Raiders can get back to the postseason depends upon identifying the quarterback who will replace Carr. When I wrote about the impact of the Carr deal on the league, my mind naturally went to a pair of former Patriots as Vegas’ best 2023 fits: Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo.

McDaniels and Ziegler could package picks for the second consecutive season to try to move up in the draft for a quarterback, but they need to use those selections to fix their defense. Patrick Graham’s defense dropped from 17th in DVOA to 31st this season, as edge rusher Chandler Jones and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin failed to impress after joining last offseason. Vegas could stand to add five new starters as Ya-Sin, defensive end Clelin Ferrell, linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Duron Harmon hit free agency. It will have approximately $50 million in cap space after moving on from Carr, although it will need to use some of that money to bring back running back Josh Jacobs after a breakout season.

The cloud hanging over the Raiders, unfortunately, is their division. They are stuck in the AFC West. While wideout Davante Adams mostly lived up to expectations, they weren’t one wide receiver away from competing with the Chiefs. The Chargers pulled ahead of their rivals, and while the Broncos collapsed, the possibility of Sean Payton joining the division to fix Russell Wilson would only make the West even tougher.

The Raiders were closer to needing another rebuild a year ago than they thought or it seemed at the time. Now, it’s clear. McDaniels and Ziegler’s moves last offseason were win-now decisions, but what happens this offseason might be decided by their choice at quarterback. If they can land Brady, they aren’t rebuilding. If they don’t add him, they probably should start over and try to build a team that can really compete with Kansas City in three years. Does McDaniels have the appetite to admit his mistake?

5. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

After a dramatic collapse to miss the playoffs, the Titans find themselves at a crossroads. Coach Mike Vrabel and new general manager Ran Carthon have to decide whether they can win the Super Bowl with their current core of talent. Tennessee went 30-13 over a two-and-a-half-year span between the start of 2020 and the halfway point of 2022. It went 0-7 afterward and hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2019 season.

Let’s make both cases. If Vrabel & Co. are inclined to believe the second half of the 2022 season was an aberration, they can point to an absurd stack of injuries as their fatal flaw. The Titans had 22 players on injured reserve by the end of the season, including quarterback Ryan Tannehill, their entire starting offensive line and starting linebackers David Long and Zach Cunningham. Their pass rush was beaten down: Harold Landry III missed the entire season because of a torn ACL, Bud Dupree was in and out of the lineup because of a hip injury, and Jeffery Simmons played through an ankle injury that sapped his effectiveness.

The Titans should get back all of those guys next season. They have the No. 11 overall pick in April’s draft, their highest selection since 2017. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have emerged as worthy competition in the AFC South, but the Titans still play in one of the league’s easiest divisions, and they’ll avoid the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals with a second-place schedule. There’s work to be done, but they should be a playoff team if they’re healthier.

If the Titans go that route, they’ll need to commit further to their core. Tannehill, left tackle Taylor Lewan and veteran running back Derrick Henry are in the final year of their contracts and would get new extensions to create cap space. Carthon could restructure Dupree’s deal, bring back Austin Hooper to play alongside breakout rookie tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, swap out veteran wideout Robert Woods for a player on a cheaper contract and/or a more explosive option and replenish the O-line. If Tennessee can nail its offensive coordinator hire after firing Todd Downing, it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario in which it’s competitive.

Competitive? Sure. Confident it can make it out of an AFC with the Bengals, Bills and Chiefs? That’s another story. The Titans might have had that sort of ceiling on offense when they ran to the AFC Championship Game in the 2019 season, but that was a different roster. Those Titans had a great offensive line, a one-two punch at wide receiver in Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, a more efficient version of Tannehill (on a cheaper contract) and a game-changing back in his prime in Henry.

Now? They are weaker on offense across the board. The line has been withered by age, injuries, departures and subpar drafting. First-round wideout Treylon Burks flashed as a rookie, but Woods didn’t show that he has much left in the tank. Tannehill is on a much more expensive contract, and while his interception rate bounced back after an ugly 2021, the efficiency that made him one of the league’s biggest bargains in 2019 hasn’t returned. He averaged 9.6 yards per attempt that season and hasn’t topped 8.0 yards per throw since.

Henry is not the guy he was in 2019 or 2020 when he averaged 5.2 yards per carry and broke off big run after big run. The Titans have kept feeding the star back, but he has averaged 4.4 yards per rush while posting a below-average success rate since the start of last season. He missed time because of a foot injury in 2021 and has averaged nearly 24 carries per game when available over that timeframe.

Henry has special physical tools, but what are the chances a 29-year-old back with 1,370 carries over the past four seasons improves on his next deal? And if the Titans are transitioning from him as the absolute focal point of their offense, do they have anyone compelling to take his place?

There’s a scenario in which Vrabel puts faith in his defense and uses these two offseasons to rebuild the offense. Maybe Henry and Lewan play out the final year of their deals and march off into the sunset. Tannehill could be a cap casualty. The Titans could use their first-round pick on a quarterback after the early returns on third-rounder Malik Willis weren’t impressive, but with Carthon arriving from San Francisco, would they call the Niners about Trey Lance? An offense with Lance at quarterback and Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator could take some of the load off Henry and create much-needed cap space for the organization to focus on the rest of the offense.

The most likely outcome is Tennessee ends up choosing some elements of each of these routes. Roster building isn’t often as clear as it might seem in hindsight; remember that the organization reportedly explored trading Henry at the 2018 trade deadline and took a chance on Tannehill as a salary dump before Vrabel threw the quarterback in the lineup in hopes of finding a spark.

That spark propelled the Titans into a deep playoff run and a three-year run of successful football, but I’m not sure it can take them any further. Their chances of returning to the postseason in 2023 might hinge upon their ambition to be something more than a tough out.

4. New England Patriots (8-9)

The Patriots have no one to blame for missing the postseason besides themselves. They threw away two winning positions in back-to-back weeks in December. In the first game, they failed to stop a fourth-and-10 to seal a win over the Raiders, allowed a tying touchdown and then gift-wrapped a win for Chandler Jones and Las Vegas with one of the worst plays in NFL history.

On to Cincinnati the following week, they forced and recovered a Ja’Marr Chase fumble with 3:20 to go and drove to the Cincinnati 5-yard line. Trailing by four points, a touchdown would have brought a season-turning win for New England, but Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled on first-and-goal to hand the ball back to the Bengals. Mac Jones threw in a personal foul for good measure, and while the team stayed alive with a win the following week over Miami, a season-ending loss to Buffalo eliminated it from postseason contention.

Given that the defense ranked fourth in DVOA in 2021 and third this season, Bill Belichick’s defense wasn’t to blame for the disappointing campaign. Instead, the issues were elsewhere. The Patriots fielded the league’s worst special teams, while their offense fell from ninth in DVOA to 24th. Solving this team’s problems starts there.

Back in December, I wrote about what was wrong with the Patriots’ offense. It’s fair to say offensive coordinator Matt Patricia didn’t give Jones many easy options. New England didn’t use much play-action, and the run-pass options Jones thrived with at Alabama haven’t been part of his offenses the past two seasons. Jones was the league’s worst quarterback on quick game and seemed to grow more frustrated with the offense with each week. It was a lost year for a player who was off to such a promising start as a rookie.

The good news is the Patriots publicly admitted they’d be interviewing candidates for an offensive coordinator, a rare bit of candor for an organization that often eschews titles or refuses to identify its playcallers.

Belichick ended up hiring former Texans coach and Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. Unsurprisingly, he exclusively interviewed candidates with whom he had some connection in the past; Adrian Klemm, Shawn Jefferson and Keenan McCardell were all former players on teams Belichick coached, while Nick Caley already was on staff as the tight ends coach. Belichick’s refusal to recruit from outside his past led him to the Patricia-Joe Judge solution a year ago.

The approaches toward Jefferson and McCardell might have something to do with the other problem the Patriots need to solve this offseason: rebuilding at wide receiver. They looked to free agency for a series of new starters two seasons ago and have used four top-101 picks on wideouts and tight ends over the past four seasons. Most of those moves have turned out to be disappointing.

– – –

Belichick will have to hope a more experienced offensive coach and an influx of receiver talent turns around the offense. There’s also a scenario in which the Patriots bring in a veteran to take Jones’ place, given that former New England starters Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo will both be unrestricted free agents. I don’t think there’s a significant chance either of them return to supplant Jones, but after a year in which the Patriots looked sloppy and underprepared on offense and special teams, anything seems on the table.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

Mike Tomlin’s streak of seasons without a losing campaign is too strong for regression toward the mean. The Steelers declined from 2021, but it was only by a half-game — that team went 9-7-1. Of course, that slight decline also was enough to push them out of the postseason picture; a 9-7-1 mark would have snuck them in as the 7-seed ahead of the Dolphins.

My concerns for the Steelers heading into the season were that they might not have great quarterback play after Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement, might not be able to protect their new passer, couldn’t get much more out of two top stars T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward and ran up a 7-1-1 record in games decided by seven points or fewer — which is tough to sustain — all while playing one of the NFL’s toughest schedules.

Did that turn out to be true? Some yes, some no. The Steelers ended up facing the second-toughest schedule, per Football Outsiders, and Watt missed half of the season because of a torn pectoral muscle. They dropped down to 6-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer, although some of that fortuitous close-game work showed up in Week 1 against the Bengals, when the Steelers needed to block an extra point and survive a 29-yard miss from Evan McPherson to win in overtime.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s offense was better than expected, as a Kenny Pickett-led attack ranked 15th in Total QBR and 18th in pass block win rate. Tomlin’s team was 14th in DVOA, right in line with its record. The worst element of Pittsburgh’s performance was on special teams, where it ranked 27th in DVOA, but that’s less sticky than the offense or defense, so we would expect the Steelers to improve there in 2023.

There are still some elements of Pittsburgh’s performance, though, suggesting it was a little fortuitous. The Steelers intercepted a league-high 20 passes, and while any secondary with Minkah Fitzpatrick is capable of doing that in a given season, remember that they picked off 13 a year ago. They recovered only three fumbles on defense, which was the fewest of any team, but they also only lost five fumbles on offense, which was the second fewest on that side of the ball.

While the Steelers outperformed their point differential by 1.7 wins, they otherwise performed about in line with their record. For them to take it a step further and advance into the postseason, the natural steps forward would include a full season from Watt and a second-year leap from Pickett, who improved as the season went along.

Split Pickett’s season into two halves, and you see the growth. The first-round pick posted a 43.2 QBR during his first seven games, a stretch in which he threw eight picks and averaged just over 6.0 yards per attempt. In his final six games, while his completion percentage (59.2%) and yards per attempt (6.4) were below average, he turned the ball over just once, putting up a 62.5 QBR.

The Steelers went 5-1 in those games, and the one loss came in a game in which Pickett exited after one pass attempt. Admittedly, four of the five wins also came against quarterbacks who were either backups (Tyler Huntley) or about to be benched (Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota), but there’s the shell of a winning formula present if Pickett can protect the ball.

Pittsburgh’s cap also is in better shape now that Roethlisberger’s dead money is a thing of the past. It is still $3 million over the projected cap mark, which isn’t thrilling for a team with a quarterback on a rookie deal, but it can clear out more than $24 million by releasing cornerbacks William Jackson and Ahkello Witherspoon and quarterback Mitch Trubisky. The Steelers will want to re-sign corner Cameron Sutton, who is coming off his best season, but they actually have some financial flexibility if they want to go shopping for more significant help along the offensive line. They also landed the No. 32 overall pick in the draft when they traded wideout Chase Claypool to the Bears, which is a valuable selection for a player who was likely going to leave after 2023.

The other hope for the Steelers has to be that the AFC North gets a little easier because of cap issues. Pickett might not be the best quarterback in the division, but the flexibility afforded the Steelers by his deal could help them get back on top of the North in 2023.

2. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

After defying the historical evidence for declining in 2020 and 2021, the Packers came back to earth this season. Many of the same players who went 14-6 in one-score games between 2019 and 2021 went 4-5 in those same games in 2022, including a season-ending loss to the Lions, which knocked the team out of playoff contention. Green Bay finished third in the NFC North after three consecutive division titles.

Regression doesn’t happen in a vacuum, and the natural place to point fingers after a disappointing season is at quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Deprived of No. 1 wideout Davante Adams after the star was traded to the Raiders, Rodgers never seemed to grow completely comfortable with any of his options. No Packers playmaker topped 800 receiving yards, and Rodgers posted average or worse marks in completion percentage (64.6%), yards per attempt (6.8) and adjusted net yards per attempt (6.0).

The thing Rodgers and the offense did at historically low rates over the prior seasons was to avoid turnovers, and that went away this season. Rodgers threw 12 interceptions after tossing 15 over the four prior seasons combined. An offense that ranked first or second in giveaways over each of Matt LaFleur’s first three seasons ranked 14th.

The Packers had a neutral point differential, so they’ll finally make their way off the expected-to-decline list for 2023. Projecting their 2023 season, though, seems impossible without knowing what they’ll do at quarterback. There’s a realistic chance they have either Rodgers or Jordan Love under center, but it’s less likely that both will be back together on the roster come September.

When the initial reports came out about Rodgers’ three-year, $150 million extension last May, I thought the annual saga between the team and its longtime signal-caller might be complete. Sadly, I was wrong. Rodgers has a $53.8 million option bonus that needs to be paid at some point between March 17 and Week 1 of the season. Green Bay could theoretically wait until September to trade away the future Hall of Famer, but if there’s no deal on the books, it would need to pick up this option. (It would be forced to eat more than $40 million in dead money if Rodgers retired.)

The deadline isn’t for Rodgers. It’s for Love. After three seasons of sitting him on the bench, the Packers have a significant decision to make about their backup’s future. During the first week of May, they will need to exercise or decline Love’s fifth-year option for the 2024 season, which is projected to come in at $19.6 million. That figure would be fully guaranteed at the time of signing, so committing to Love in May would leave him with an outsized contract for a backup role in 2024.

If the Packers pay Rodgers’ option and pick up Love’s fifth-year option, they would owe their two quarterbacks nearly $60 million combined in 2024, which would be untenable for a team already in rough salary-cap shape. It’s also more difficult to get out of Rodgers’ deal after 2023 than it would be in 2022, which is likely by design because the Love decision is coming up.

Both options are on the table for the Packers. Rodgers took a step backward in 2022, but he was still a competent quarterback and likely would benefit from wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs improving in Year 2. (I would say general manager Brian Gutekunst could add another starting-caliber wideout, but saying that feels like a waste of time after the past few years.) If Green Bay wants the highest floor, it would make sense to keep Rodgers and trade Love before the May deadline.

On the other hand, the Packers traded up to take Love in the 2020 draft and have kept him around behind Rodgers ever since. Love didn’t play as a rookie and was middling in a spot start against the Chiefs in 2021, but he was more promising in limited time this season. Most of his 9.3 yards per attempt came on a slant Watson turned into a 63-yard score, but he was one of the worst backups in the league in his 2021 appearances.

Packers fans hoping for a massive haul in a Rodgers trade might be disappointed. His age (39), flirtations with retirement and massive contract make him a less appealing option than it might seem. Any team acquiring Rodgers would be on the hook to pay him $59.5 million in 2023 and $49.3 million in 2024, with the possibility of $60 million in dead money on its cap in 2025.

Teams typically pay more than we would expect for quarterbacks via trade — consider that the Commanders sent multiple picks to the Colts for Carson Wentz last offseason when Indy was all but advertising it was going to cut him — but there are only a few teams that would consider taking on that risk. In a market in which Derek Carr is available for trade and both Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo will be free agents, Rodgers might be the guy who gets traded to the last team left standing.

On the other hand, it’s even more difficult to figure out the possible draft compensation for Love, who already has played out the first three years of his rookie deal and has thrown just 83 regular-season passes. Any team trading for Love would likely pick up his fifth-year option, meaning it would owe him nearly $22 million between 2023 and 2024.

The Panthers traded second-, fourth-, and sixth-round picks to the Jets for Sam Darnold two years ago, and Darnold was drafted higher and had more of a track record than Love. My guess is Love would net a pick in the 60-80 range from a team such as the Buccaneers or Titans, who have a need for a starter of the future and would expect Love to start for them in 2024.

In either scenario, the Packers should be expected to be competitive in a wide-open NFC North in 2023. The Vikings are the most likely regression candidate in modern league history, but the Lions look to be on their way up after a fantastic end to 2022, while the Bears will have the No. 1 overall pick and $115 million in cap space to spend this offseason.

1. Los Angeles Rams (5-12)

Few Super Bowl champions have fallen as far in 12 months as these Rams. Injuries eventually broke them for good, but remember that this team got blown out by the Bills at home in the season opener and was 2-3 with 12 turnovers five weeks into the season. Something wasn’t right from the very beginning, and things only got worse as the season went along.

The good news for the Rams is the key figures are all saying the right things about returning in 2023. Coach Sean McVay will be back. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, who missed the final seven games because of a neck injury, has said he’ll be healthy. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald’s Twitter bio had fans terrified for an hour or two, but he’s not going to retire. Wideout Cooper Kupp should be recovered from the ankle injury that ended his 2022 season. The Rams should be healthier in 2023.

Whether they’ll be back to their championship-caliber selves is a tougher question. When I spoke to Rams reporter Jordan Rodrigue on my podcast, she suggested the franchise was likely to overhaul the coaching staff under McVay, as it has been thinned out by years of head-coaching hires around the league. Liam Coen, the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2022, already has left for a job at Kentucky.

Are the Rams a desirable organization to join? It’s tough to say. Los Angeles has its perks, of course, and McVay has a track record of landing significant opportunities for his assistants and positional coaches. Even as he’s coming back for next season, though, his long-term future is uncertain. Will coaches want to join this organization if McVay is going to retire next year? If he does take his long-term break and then returns to the Rams, who would want to take that job in the meantime?

It’s tougher to see Los Angeles’ core of talent getting better than it was in 2021. Kupp and Donald will be on the wrong side of 30. Stafford, who will be 35 in February, came into the season battling an elbow injury and ranks 14th in QBR over his past 17 regular-season games. The move to sign receiver Allen Robinson looked to be a bust. The first-round picks the Rams have dealt away during the McVay era would be in or entering their prime, and they are sending the No. 6 overall pick in April’s draft to Detroit as the last vestige of the Stafford deal. Flags fly forever, but the Rams are dealing with the downside of their aggressiveness now.

Having already won the Super Bowl, they find themselves at a new crossroads. Do they continue to mortgage their future to try to claim a second Super Bowl before McVay and Donald leave, or do they pursue a more balanced path? My suspicion is the former, given that general manager Les Snead reportedly tried to deal for Christian McCaffrey and offered the Panthers two first-round picks for edge rusher Brian Burns around the trade deadline.

A refreshed L.A. team should be able to compete for a playoff berth, but it needs to finally address the offensive line. By Chase Stuart’s draft value chart, the Rams have used only 24.1 points of capital on their line since McVay arrived in 2017, the fourth-lowest mark in football. The Cardinals, Steelers and Chiefs below them have all used significant capital in free agency or via trade to add players to their line since then.

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It would be foolish to count out the Rams, especially given how successful McVay had been before injuries decimated the roster. As long as the principals are presented and accounted for by September, they should be in the thick of the NFC West race. Their ability to rise past that and compete for a second Super Bowl likely depends on how aggressive Snead & Co. want to get over the next eight months.