The Daily Briefing Thursday, January 27, 2022
AROUND THE NFLDaily BriefingNFC NORTH
DETROIT ProFootballFocus.com gives high marks to the contributions of two Lions draft picks:
6. Detroit Lions Why they’re ranked here: Detroit owned two of the 12 most valuable non-quarterback rookies in the 2021 draft class with first-round offensive tackle Penei Sewell and Day 3 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Undrafted free agent cornerback Jerry Jacobs also ranked inside the top 25 among that group. Sewell’s success was to be expected, but St. Brown and Jacobs surpassed expectations with flying colors.
How their top pick fared: Sewell had a rough first five weeks in the NFL ranks, but he quickly rallied and became one of the top players at the position in the NFL. His grade from Week 6 on was the ninth-best among all tackles. Overall, Sewell finished as one of the 10 most valuable tackles in the NFL. And the seventh overall pick did that while flipping from left tackle to right tackle midway through the season. Sewell was the best tackle prospect PFF has ever evaluated, and he is living up to the hype.
Best value pick: St. Brown went from fourth-round pick to top-20-graded wide receiver in one year. He even ranked third in PFF grade behind only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams over the last six weeks of the regular season. While he might not be beating press-man on the outside, St. Brown did an excellent job finding soft spots in zone from the slot. He also didn’t drop a pass after Week 3 and caught half of his contested opportunities.
GREEN BAY Mike Florio wants you to know he roots against QB AARON RODGERS for reasons other than his lack of vaccination:
Apparently, the woke mob’s favorite team is any team that’s playing the Packers.
So believes Packers (for now) quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who took his persecution complex to the next level on Tuesday, declaring on the radio show he hijacks weekly his theory regarding the motivations of modern-day football fans.
“There’s a lot of people tuning in rooting against us for one reason and one reason only, and it’s obviously my vaccination status,” Rodgers said, via Ryan Wood of USA Today.
It’s obviously not only his vaccination status, if it’s even that. There are plenty of reasons for teams to be rooting against the Packers on any given Sunday (or Saturday). This week, all 49ers fans and most Bears/Vikings/Lions fans were surely anti-Packers.
Are some otherwise neutral fans no longer ambivalent about the team for which Rodgers plays? Sure, but it’s his own fault. After years of desperately avoiding anything for which he could be criticized, he has made the full wrestling-heel turn, embracing the polarization he’s deliberately causing. Many regard him as a narcissistic. Many regard him as an asshole. Those traits alone are enough to get people to root against him, vaccinated or not.
Rodgers used to crave attention on his own terms, ideally free from criticism. Now, he seems to thrive on the hate, especially if he can characterize it as unwarranted or irrational.
Sure, some people probably don’t like him because he’s unvaccinated. For others, it’s more nuanced. Maybe it’s because he lied about being vaccinated. And then he played a stupid-ass word game about whether he lied about being vaccinated. And then he spread vaccination misinformation, invoking the name of Joe Rogan, currently one of the most polarizing humans in America.
Through it all, Rodgers has pissed and moaned about getting canceled. Through it all, his platform has only grown.
Frankly, in recent months he’s been acting more and more like the 45th president of the United States. Who knows? Maybe Rodgers is contemplating eventually entering that arena. He seems to possess the three most relevant traits — he loves to talk, he loves to hear himself talk, and he loves it when people talk about him.
If Rodgers goes, Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com explores replacements:
Replacing Aaron Rodgers:
QBs on the Packers’ roster
Jordan Love: All of the drama surrounding Rodgers dates back to the Packers unexpectedly drafting Love with the 26th pick in the first round of the 2020 draft. I’m not sure general manager Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur could have anticipated exactly how vociferously Rodgers would react to Love’s selection, but they also must have known that drafting Love was going to set the end of Rodgers’s career in motion. In turn, that tells us how confident the organization must have been that Love was a great quarterback prospect.
Through two years, we haven’t seen much. He didn’t play at all in 2020. In 2021, he appeared in six games, with his lone start coming against the Chiefs after Rodgers was ruled out because of COVID-19. Love was bad in the only meaningful action of his career. He got better as the game went along and led a late touchdown drive to make things close, but he finished 19-of-34 for just 190 yards with a touchdown and a pick.
It would have been great if Love had excelled in his time on the field, but struggling through two seasons in limited time doesn’t preclude him from succeeding in the future. If anyone should know this, it’s the Packers, who went through this exact scenario with their current starter. Through his first two seasons, Rodgers was just 15-of-31 for 111 yards with an interception. His most notable game time came in garbage time against the Patriots, with the future superstar going 4-of-12 for 32 yards and breaking his foot in the process.
Rodgers was more promising filling in for Brett Favre in a 2007 loss to the Cowboys, and when he finally inherited the starting job in 2008, he was one of the league’s best quarterbacks. We can’t necessarily say that Love will follow down that same path because Rodgers struggled early in his career, but it’s also a reminder that we don’t know very much about Love after his first two seasons.
We also don’t know how the Packers feel about Love behind closed doors, but I suspect their decision regarding Rodgers would tell us everything we need to know. If they trade Rodgers, it tells us that they think Love is still a superstar quarterback prospect. For whatever plans they had two years ago, Rodgers is about to be a back-to-back MVP. The only way they are trading a quarterback playing at that level is if they get a franchise quarterback in return or believe they have one already on their roster in Love.
Kurt Benkert and Danny Etling: These two practice-squad passers would be in play only if Rodgers left and Love suffered an injury during the 2022 campaign.
Benkert got an opportunity to step onto an NFL field in December when he kneeled down twice to end a win over the Bears. Etling, a seventh-round pick of the Patriots in 2018, has been on seven different practice squads after leaving New England in 2019.
Could they draft a QB early? With Love on the roster, it seems exceedingly unlikely that the Packers would draft anything more than a developmental quarterback in 2022.
The Packers — who own the No. 28 selection in April’s draft — could theoretically come away with high draft picks as part of a Rodgers trade, but I don’t think they would use those selections on another quarterback.
Options in free agency If the Packers trade away Rodgers and don’t get a quarterback in return, they would probably use free agency to go after a passer who could push Love while also accepting the likelihood they’ll end up in a reserve role. There’s one free agent who stands out as a quarterback the Packers could target based on LaFleur’s past …
Marcus Mariota: In 2018, when LaFleur served his lone year as an offensive coordinator with the Titans, Mariota was his quarterback. Mariota posted a 53.2 Total QBR, which ranked 19th in the league. An injury at the end of the season cost Mariota a chance to start in a play-in game against the Colts in Week 17, with the Titans losing after turning to Gabbert. (Somehow, Gabbert figures into every quarterback situation.)
After spending two years as a little-used backup in Las Vegas, Mariota might prefer to try to find a job in which he has a more realistic path to long-term work. Given the presence of LaFleur and the uncertainty surrounding Love’s actual ability, though, Green Bay might be a more open opportunity than it seems. Mariota might not have the superstar ceiling many hoped after he left Oregon in 2015, but his work in Tennessee suggested he is a competent starting quarterback, which could look pretty good surrounded by the talent LaFleur has amassed in Green Bay.
Nick Mullens: When LaFleur was the passing game coordinator for the 49ers in 2017, Mullens was an undrafted free agent who managed to make his way onto the practice squad. After LaFleur left for Nashville, Mullens was thrust into the starting lineup in 2018 when Jimmy Garoppolo and C.J. Beathard suffered injuries and delivered an impressive performance in a win over the Raiders.
Mullens has been inconsistent over the ensuing several seasons and didn’t show much in a COVID-19-induced spot start for the Browns in December, but the 26-year-old is competitive and familiar enough with this offense to step in as a No. 2 quarterback. If the Packers are sure Love is their man, Mullens would be a reasonable choice as his backup.
Brian Hoyer: The longtime Patriots backup spent time with LaFleur in San Francisco in 2017, starting before the franchise traded for Garoppolo. Hoyer’s work with the 49ers wasn’t exactly sterling, but if the Niners want to add a veteran to help mentor their young quarterback, he’s a familiar face.
Potential trade candidates for the Packers The trade options for the Packers are more complicated, in part because it’s unclear whether those trades might include Rodgers going the other way. It’s possible we see a deal like the Matthew Stafford pact from a year ago, in which the Lions got a couple of first-round picks and a new quarterback in Jared Goff. The Packers might also send Rodgers off in one deal and make a separate trade to go after another quarterback.
There’s a wider tier of quarterbacks who might work for Green Bay, based on what it ends up doing with Rodgers.
Carson Wentz, Colts: Wentz has his limitations and injury issues, but his arm strength, competitiveness and size appeal to a lot of NFL coaches. The Packers might also see an opportunity to acquire him at a relatively low cost after his end to the 2021 season.
It’s probably more likely he ends up with the Buccaneers, but the possibility of swapping Rodgers to the Colts for Wentz and draft picks (or young players) would allow Green Bay to send its star quarterback to the AFC.
Derek Carr, Raiders: Likewise, if the Packers wanted to ship Rodgers to the AFC West, it wouldn’t be impossible to imagine them getting Carr back as a veteran option to take his place. Carr has been an above-average quarterback for several seasons, and as he enters the final year of his contract, he would be a smaller step down for the Packers than the one they would likely experience with Love as their starter.
Carr has been criticized in the past for being relatively conservative as a passer, but those arguments don’t apply any longer. Over the past two seasons, with limited receiving options outside of tight end Darren Waller — who missed chunks of 2021 because of injuries — Carr’s offense has produced 50 plays of 30 yards or more. That’s nearly as many as the Chiefs (51) over that same timespan.
It’s possible the Packers could flip Carr for additional picks, but he would be a reasonable replacement in the short term if they want to give Love more seasoning.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers. The Packers aren’t trading Rodgers to San Francisco, but it’s entirely possible they send Rodgers away in one deal and use some of the draft capital they’ve netted to go after Garoppolo. LaFleur spent time with Garoppolo as his starter with the 49ers in 2017, and the offense the Packers run shares many similarities with what the Niners do under Kyle Shanahan.
Garoppolo’s trade value for 2022 will be fascinating. On one hand, he has struggled to stay healthy. He has often been a secondary piece in a run-heavy offense. The 49ers also have precious little leverage given the presence of No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance on their roster. It’s one thing to draft a quarterback at the end of the first round, as the Packers did, but the 49ers used three first-rounders to get Lance. And while Rodgers responded by winning MVP, Garoppolo produced a solid, unspectacular season before suffering a thumb injury.
And yet, Garoppolo is one win away from making it to his second Super Bowl in three seasons! There are absolutely people around the league who think he’s a franchise quarterback, although they might not all be willing to back up those opinions by trading a significant draft pick to acquire him. The 49ers probably wouldn’t want to trade him to their playoff rivals, but what if they outbid the competition?
Kirk Cousins, Vikings. Speaking of deals a team might not want to make, we don’t typically see teams trade quarterbacks within their division, with a few exceptions. The Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to Washington for a second-round pick in 2010, which is probably the most notable example of a team going against this rule. The Packers aren’t trading Rodgers to the Vikings, but if they ship Rodgers elsewhere, would the Vikings consider trading them Cousins?
In a vacuum, I don’t think there’s any question the Packers would want Cousins. LaFleur was the quarterbacks coach in Washington when the organization took Cousins in the fourth round of the 2012 draft. When asked about his former pupil in 2020, LaFleur didn’t mince words, saying that Cousins “was an elite quarterback.” The Vikings have run a version of the Shanahan offense under Kevin Stefanski, Gary Kubiak and Klint Kubiak over the past three years, and while Cousins has disappointed at times, he ranks 16th in QBR over that timeframe.
Like anything, Green Bay’s interest in Cousins might depend on the price. There could be a meaningful trade market for Cousins, but if that’s not the case, the Vikings might just try to move on from him to clear out cap space. If that’s true, the Packers could loom as a logical landing point. Gutekunst would have to perform some cap gymnastics to get Cousins on the roster without giving the 33-year-old a meaningful extension, but there’s a universe in which Cousins and the Packers could be a fit.
Baker Mayfield, Browns. Let’s finish with another unlikely option. Mayfield is another quarterback with experience running the Shanahan offense, having done so the past two seasons under Stefanski in Cleveland. The results have been decidedly mixed. He looked like a franchise quarterback as the Browns made a push into the 2020 postseason, but while dealing with a shoulder injury in 2021, he wasn’t quite as impressive. The most likely scenario seems to be the Browns letting Mayfield play out his fifth-year option in 2022.
If the Browns were the team that put together a huge package for Rodgers, though, it would make sense for the Packers to ask for Mayfield as part of the return. (To be clear, it would still take multiple first-round picks alongside Mayfield to get a deal done.)
While the Packers would need to restructure Mayfield’s deal to reduce his base salary, trading for him would give the Packers a legitimate contender to compete with Love and a quarterback who has played well when the pieces around him are right. If the Packers want to have their cake and eat it too by trading Rodgers to the AFC, picking up multiple first-rounders and landing a quarterback who could be their long-term starter without blocking Love, making a move for Mayfield might be the way to make that happen.
MINNESOTA Chip Scroggins of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune on the hiring of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as Vikings GM:
As general manager of the Vikings, Rick Spielman traded picks on draft day as if he worked on Wall Street as a broker.
His replacement literally held that job.
On Wednesday, the Vikings executed a perfect case study in the time-honored tradition of sports organizations hiring the opposite when searching for a new coach or executive. They replaced an old-school football guy with a forward-thinking non-football guy.
Back when it became apparent that Zygi and Mark Wilf needed a change in leadership, the working theory was that the owners might not have the stomach to break free of the insulated cocoon that Spielman provided the New Jersey real estate developers.
Not only did the Wilfs blow that theory to smithereens, Zygi and Mark made like Lewis and Clark with an unconventional hire. They picked a new frontier, for them and the NFL.
The owners entrusted their football operation to the care of someone who began his professional life on Wall Street trading energy derivatives and commodities.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah holds degrees in economics from Princeton and Stanford, which means he quite literally is the smartest guy in the room. His résumé would land him a job at any number of desirable destinations. Wall Street. Silicon Valley. Now the NFL.
This qualifies as a historic hire, a departure from the norm.
Adofo-Mensah, 40, has worked in the NFL only nine years. His background is in research and development, not scouting. Hiring an analytics guru as GM upsets the NFL’s ecosystem because the prescribed path to that top leadership position has forever been cookie-cutter — a GM needed to be a football lifer to fully understand the complexities of piecing together a roster as a talent evaluator.
A new door has swung open.
With anything in life, something different can be simultaneously exciting and unnerving. Adofo-Mensah’s arrival at such a pivotal moment for the organization is fascinating because his expertise is so unlike traditional hires and this move carries a high risk-reward factor.
That’s not a bad thing. Just different. This is what’s necessary, a different approach, a shake-up of the whole operation.
The Vikings need an unbiased set of eyes on their roster after years of the same-old, same-old. Adofo-Mensah brings no emotional attachment to personnel or the Vikings’ schemes or philosophies. Everything should be a blank canvas for him, starting with the head coach that he helps hire.
His tenure will be indelibly linked and compared to Ryan Poles’ time in Chicago since both were finalists for the Vikings’ job. Poles, who was the Chiefs’ executive director of player personnel, chose the Bears’ GM position rather than travel to Minnesota for an in-person interview.
That sparked speculation about whether the Vikings blew their opportunity to hire a candidate with a more traditional football background. Or whether Poles viewed the Bears’ roster and overall situation more favorably than the Vikings.
Whatever the reasoning, Poles took the Bears’ offer. Poles played football and spent a dozen years with the championship-winning Chiefs, so his résumé certainly looks like a safer choice, but that doesn’t mean he was the only qualified person for the job.
The fallout from the firings of Spielman and Mike Zimmer revealed a level of dysfunction inside the organization that was not healthy. People sounded worn out, including players.
We will hear a lot from Vikings leaders in the coming days about collaboration and connectivity and systems because those have become popular buzzwords in corporate America. That’s all fine, but the pile of work that Adofo-Mensah inherits is the same as Spielman left it. Difficult decisions and challenges will require savvy problem-solving skills.
How will he handle Kirk Cousins’ contract?
Can he find and develop a franchise quarterback, a question that has haunted the organization for years?
How will he manipulate a top-heavy roster that features aging veterans on bloated contracts and a defense that requires an overhaul?
And whom will he hire as head coach, the first major decision on his docket?
Hiring any new general manager represents a new beginning. Adofo-Mensah’s background makes this moment even more intriguing. Nobody knows how his tenure will turn out, but trying something bold and entirely different in the pursuit of being better is a risk worth taking.
With the hiring of Adofo-Mensah, the NFC North now has three black GMs (also Brad Holmes of the Lions and newly-hired Ryan Poles in Chicago).
NFC EAST
NEW YORK GIANTS The Giants made some news as they introduced their new GM, Joe Schoen, a spin-off from the Buffalo revival. It sounds like QB DANIEL JONES is still their guy, and if he is not, they won’t be pursuing QB DESHAUN WATSON. Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post:
Anything seemed possible Wednesday for the Giants. Anything but trading for Deshaun Watson.
Endless optimism and few certainties filled the air in the Quest Diagnostics training center as general manager Joe Schoen’s official introduction kicked off a new era for the NFL’s losingest team of the last five years. But one thing made very clear is that Watson’s pending 22 civil lawsuits for sexual misconduct — one reason the Pro Bowl quarterback did not play this past season for the Texans — are a non-starter for the Giants.
“We’re not trading for Deshaun Watson,” co-owner John Mara said emphatically.
Why?
“There are so many reasons why we wouldn’t do it,” Mara said. “Cap-wise we couldn’t afford it, but more importantly with the allegations that are out there right now, that’s just not the right fit for us.”
Ruling out Watson includes a ripple effect.
Brian Flores will interview for the head coach vacancy Thursday. As head coach of the Dolphins from 2019 until earlier this month, Flores pushed to trade for Watson, even after the allegations surfaced. Flores has been in separate contact with both Mara and Watson, The Post previously reported, but it is not believed that Mara’s refusal to trade for Watson would cause Flores to reconsider and prioritize one of the other eight vacancies.
“I didn’t go down that road in the interview,” Schoen said when asked if he and Mara discussed the possibility of trading for Watson. “But where we are salary-cap wise, and the pending legal issues, I don’t know how you could go down that road right now.”
Because Mara and Schoen both mentioned the salary-cap implications, it follows that the same logic applies to Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who was seeking a trade last offseason and has eyes for New York.
Wilson, 33, comes without any character red flags but at the cost of $24 million on the cap in 2022 and $27 million in 2023 before any contract extension that likely would need to be part of a trade. By comparison, Watson, 26, has $136 million remaining on a contract through 2025.
The Giants are projected to be $5.7 million over the cap, so fitting any new contracts — let alone huge ones — is going to be a challenge. That means the Giants have cap casualties coming just to get into compliance with the cap, before addressing any major shortages on the offensive line and at edge rusher.
“It’s a concern and it’s real,” said Schoen, who was assistant GM with the Bills when they inherited a difficult cap situation.
Schoen said he will meet with assistant GM Kevin Abrams by early next week to start formulating a cap plan. Abrams, who interviewed to be the Giants GM in 2007 and 2017, was not among the nine candidates interviewed this time.
“When the new head coach gets in here … we’re going to evaluate everybody,” Schoen said. “We’re going to make educated decisions once we have more information. There are going to be difficult decisions that are going to have to be made.”
PHILADELPHIA G BRANDON BROOKS is done after ten NFL seasons. EJ Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer:
Brandon Brooks announced that he is retiring at 32 after six years with the Eagles and 10 years in the NFL.
The three-time Pro Bowl guard and Super Bowl champion made the announcement in a video news conference with local reporters Wednesday. He thanked the Eagles organization and said the decision came down to health. Brooks has suffered season-ending injuries every year since 2017 and has appeared in just two games since the 2020 season.
“After all these injuries, I just realize that, at what point do you listen to your body?” Brooks said. “I think my body was telling me that I had to make a decision. I think at this point in time, it was the right decision.”
Brooks, the team’s starting right guard since 2016, was one of the best offensive linemen in the league for a stretch and had a career year after a remarkably quick recovery from his first ruptured Achilles in 2019. He played in all 16 games that season and was named to the Pro Bowl, and Pro Football Focus ranked him as the best lineman in the league. Over a four-season stretch from 2016-19, Brooks allowed just four sacks and 12 quarterback hits, according to PFF.
“I was extremely fortunate to help bring a championship to this city,” Brooks said. “To have multiple Pro Bowl appearances, but none greater than having the honor of being an Eagle and putting on the midnight green. … I may no longer play, but I’ll be an Eagle forever and will always bleed green.”
He was drafted out of Miami (Ohio) by the Houston Texans in the third round of the 2012 draft and spent his first four years in Houston before signing with the Eagles in free agency in 2016. All three of his Pro Bowl selections (2017-19) came with the Eagles, as he and right tackle Lane Johnson became arguably the best offensive-line tandem in the NFL.
Brooks credited his progress with the Eagles to several people, including offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland, Johnson, center Jason Kelce, and former Eagles left tackle Jason Peters. Brooks and Stoutland developed a strong bond, partially because of the way the coach responded to Brooks publicly dealing with an anxiety disorder in 2016.
NFC SOUTH
TAMPA BAY Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has a list of QBs who could replace QB TOM BRADY if necessary.
Replacing Tom Brady: QBs on the Bucs’ roster
Kyle Trask: As a second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the Buccaneers invested enough draft capital in Trask to suggest that they saw him as a plausible future starter. Granted, they had the last pick in Round 2 after winning the Super Bowl, but teams that draft quarterbacks in this range typically take quarterbacks who eventually get at least some opportunity to start.
Between 2000 and 2020, 11 quarterbacks were drafted within 10 picks of the 64th selection in their respective drafts. Eight of those 11 got a chance to spend at least one season as their teams’ primary starting quarterback: Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye, Tarvaris Jackson, Chad Henne, Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon, Davis Mills and the most successful quarterback of the bunch — Jimmy Garoppolo. Ryan Mallett also started eight games over two seasons and had a chance to win the job in Houston. The only quarterbacks in this range who never really got a chance to contribute are the first two picks of the group, Giovanni Carmazzi and Marques Tuiasosopo, who combined to start just two NFL games.
Trask and Vikings third-round pick Kellen Mond fit into that group, and while Mond’s future might be subject to the whims of the new leadership in Minnesota, Bucs coach Bruce Arians and general manager Jason Licht are still in place. It’s possible they had a stacked enough roster to get aggressive in taking a flier on a quarterback prospect, but I suspect they drafted Trask with the expectation that he would be their first choice to take over from Brady.
Can he be a viable pro quarterback? We don’t have any idea at this point. ESPN’s Scouts, Inc. noted that Trask had prototypical size and toughness in the pocket while wondering whether he had NFL-caliber arm strength. I wouldn’t put too much stock into preseason numbers, but it’s hardly as if he was blowing opposing defenses away, as the 6-foot-5 passer completed just under 53% of his passes, averaged 5.7 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 60.6 in August.
I’d also point out that while Arians did great work with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck early in their careers, he didn’t play a significant role in drafting either passer. When he got to Arizona in 2013, the Cardinals originally signed Drew Stanton with the idea of making him their starter, only to transition to Carson Palmer when the veteran came available on a salary dump. The Cardinals also drafted quarterback Logan Thomas in the fourth round in 2014, only to move him to tight end after nine pass attempts.
All of this is to say that the Buccaneers have a quarterback prospect of indeterminate quality on their roster, but one they valued on draft day as a borderline NFL starter. Nothing is forcing them to hold on to that prior evaluation if they haven’t been impressed by the Florida product, but my suspicion is that Trask would at least be part of a quarterback competition if the Buccaneers don’t add a clear No. 1 starter this offseason.
Blaine Gabbert: An Arians favorite, Gabbert was with the Cardinals in 2017 before following his former coach to the Bucs in 2020. He has posted a 108.6 passer rating in garbage time, as the one-time top prospect has thrown just one pass in a Tampa Bay uniform with a lead of less than 20 points. He knows the playbook, takes snaps when the game is out of hand and hasn’t injured anybody in practice. He has done his job with the Bucs and earned a Super Bowl ring for his troubles.
Gabbert’s physical ability appealed to the Jaguars in the first round in 2011 and encouraged Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers to trade for him in 2014, but Gabbert has a career passer rating of 72.4. Using adjusted net yards per attempt accounting for era (ANY/A+), Gabbert is the worst quarterback in NFL history to throw more than 1,000 passes over his first 10 seasons in the NFL. The optimistic comparison for him finding success late in life might be Rich Gannon, but Gannon was a far more successful quarterback earlier in his career before catching fire with the Raiders. Gabbert should not be an option for the starting job.
Could they draft a QB early? The Buccaneers pick 27th in the 2022 draft, and they could theoretically add another passer in the first round. Judging by the additions Arians has made as a coach in Arizona and Tampa, it’s clear he wants quarterbacks with significant size and pocket presence.
I’m not sure whether the 6-foot-3 Kenny Pickett is quite as big as Arians would hope for from a quarterback, and I’m also not sure the Pitt product will even still be on the board at No. 27. I don’t think it’s likely that the Buccaneers add a Round 1 quarterback to compete with Trask.
Options in free agency It’s difficult for me to believe that Arians would be interested in some of the smaller quarterbacks on the free-agent market, which would eliminate Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton from the list. Arians isn’t about to implement a new offense built around a running quarterback, which would keep Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and likely Marcus Mariota out of the mix.
When you look for free agents who have Arians’ desired mix of size and pocket presence, it’s really just two quarterbacks. These would raise eyebrows if they went to Tampa, albeit for totally different reasons.
Ben Roethlisberger: Yes, the longtime Steelers quarterback is expected to retire. Do you know who else was expected to retire when he left the Steelers? Bruce Arians, who immediately unretired, joined the Colts as offensive coordinator, became their interim coach when Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with cancer and launched a second career with a totally different trajectory. Roethlisberger has been careful to say that his time with the Steelers is likely over, and his retirement isn’t yet official.
Of course, I don’t think Roethlisberger has much left in the tank after holding on for dear life with the Steelers at 38 and 39, but he was a functional quarterback while playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive line. Arians would be able to give him much better protection and an even more talented group of receivers if Chris Godwin returns.
Roethlisberger has already worked with Arians in Pittsburgh, and if he wants to try to win another Super Bowl, there’s no better place for him than Tampa Bay. I don’t think this one is likely, but there’s a non-zero chance it could happen.
Jameis Winston: When Winston left Tampa Bay two years ago, it felt like the right move for all parties involved. The Bucs were ready to move on to Brady. Winston had failed to consistently live up to expectations, and while Arians signed on with Tampa in 2019 and installed Winston as the starter, the result was the first 30-touchdown/30-interception season in NFL history. Winston was high-risk, high-reward in a way that I’m not sure Arians might have been able to take for very long.
Two years later, a reunion might also make sense. Winston is familiar with the people in the building and the offense the Buccaneers are running. He was off to a career-best start under Sean Payton in 2021 before tearing his ACL in late October. With Payton retiring, a return to the Saints might not be as appealing as it once seemed for him. Again, I don’t think this move is likely to happen, but you can’t rule it out as an impossibility.
Potential trade candidates for the Bucs The trade market could be more fruitful for the Bucs. There’s a variety of options available at different price points, ranging from fliers who might not make the 53-man roster to unquestioned No. 1 passers. Their interest level here might depend on how they feel about Trask after a year of practices. I’ll start with the biggest name, by far, of the bunch:
Carson Wentz, Colts: If you want to know how Arians feels about Wentz, consider who the then-Cardinals coach compared him to in 2017. Arians admitted that he loved Wentz coming out of school and grouped him with Luck and Roethlisberger, Arians’ two best pupils. Given Wentz’s size (6-foot-5) and almost fatalistic desire to extend plays within the pocket, Arians would likely love to work with Wentz if Brady retires.
Would the Colts be willing to trade Wentz away after one season at the helm and with no clear successor on their roster? That’s another question. In light of their disastrous collapse at the end of 2021, Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard refused to commit to Wentz as his 2022 starter. The Colts dealt first- and third-round picks to the Eagles to acquire Wentz, and even given his end to the season, I suspect they would insist on getting a first-round pick back from the Buccaneers in any deal.
The Bucs would also have to get creative to fit Wentz’s deal on their salary cap. He has just under $82 million over the next three seasons for a Tampa Bay team that would actually lose part of the $15 million in cap space it is currently projected to hold if Brady retires. The Bucs could be flexible if necessary, but would they have their own questions about investing in a player who would be on his third franchise in three seasons? Arians might want to push for a Wentz trade, but it wouldn’t be without risks.
Jared Goff, Lions: A less expensive option from the top of the 2016 draft would be Goff, who had an uneven season after being unceremoniously jettisoned to Detroit in the Matthew Stafford trade. Goff’s final numbers — a 67.2% completion percentage, 19 touchdown passes, eight interceptions — look fine, but he averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt and posted a Total QBR of 39.7, right between Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills.
Goff is realistically more of a reclamation project than a plug-and-play starter at this point. It’s clear he has his limitations, but he also has size and a good arm. When he is playing confidently and has the right players around him, he can produce spectacular numbers, as we saw during his best days with the Rams. Goff is not going to excite Bucs fans, but he might be the best option available at a reasonable price.
Drew Lock, Broncos: We’re dropping down toward guys who would be in quarterback battles at camp. I’m not sure Lock would even be favored to win a battle with Trask, and what we saw from him in his third season with the Broncos wasn’t exactly overwhelming. As a cheap option on the final year of his rookie deal who wouldn’t cost much more than a late-round pick, though, his size and arm strength could appeal to Arians as a reclamation project.
Mike White, Jets: You remember that two-week period in which White was the best quarterback in New York, right? He struggled badly in throwing four interceptions against the Bills, but when he wasn’t playing the best defense in football, the 26-year-old looked like he belonged in the NFL.
Remember: White went 37-of-45 for 405 yards with three touchdowns (and two picks) in helping the Jets beat the Bengals, who are one win away from advancing to the Super Bowl. At 6-foot-4, it’s not as if he’s lacking for size or strength, either. I could absolutely see the Bucs taking a flier on him.
NFC WEST
SAN FRANCISCO With help from former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com tries to ascertain the current value of QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO:
Even after two playoff wins, the question of what happens next at quarterback looms.
Despite the Niners’ record of 33-15 with Garoppolo starting, all signs point to them attempting to trade him and handing the reins over to Lance in the offseason. But what if Garoppolo is under center for a second Super Bowl? What if he wins it?
There are Hall of Fame quarterbacks who have never been to any Super Bowls, let alone two. While that has obviously a “problem” the Niners would be happy to take on, it’s possible Garoppolo could do enough in the final weeks to alter how his future is viewed inside the organization.
And even if that doesn’t change, Garoppolo playing well against the Rams and in a potential Super Bowl would undoubtedly boost his potential trade value as well as his earning power on the likely contract extension that would come on a new team.
“It’s mutually beneficial for us for Jimmy to play well for us and for him personally,” Juszczyk said. “Jimmy is our quarterback right now, and we’re trying to win a Super Bowl with Jimmy. We don’t know what the future holds in front of us, but him playing well will benefit and bode well for us and himself personally.”
Multiple teams — New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Washington, Denver, among others — would be considered playoff contenders with even a middle-of-the-pack starting quarterback on their roster. With this year’s NFL draft light on elite quarterback prospects and the future for the likes of Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers unclear, Garoppolo could be a more valuable commodity than some might think.
Mike Tannenbaum, ESPN’s NFL front-office insider, believes Garoppolo could fetch a second- or third-round pick sometime before the draft, noting about a dozen organizations could use a quarterback.
“He’s a starting NFL quarterback,” Tannenbaum said. “There are a lot of teams that will look at him and say he upgrades us at the most consequential position. I think they’ll let it play out and there will be some team that’s sitting there like, ‘Wow, Jimmy Garoppolo is a major upgrade for us.'”
A lack of supply to meet the demand could increase that return, especially if Garoppolo delivers on the NFL’s biggest stage.
Of course, there will be time for all of that to play out. Garoppolo and the Niners are still playing, and every round they advance offers him another opportunity to cement his legacy in San Francisco and change the way he’s perceived.
It’s something that is never far from Garoppolo’s thoughts, not as a distraction or even inspiration. It’s just reality, and Garoppolo is at peace with that for as long as he gets to keep playing quarterback for the 49ers.
“It’s always in the back of your mind,” Garoppolo said. “It has been in mine, you know, really this whole season. I knew what type of season it was, knew everything that was going on behind the scenes. It was a little different. But at the same time, it’s like you’re saying you’ve got to toe that line because you don’t want to get too emotional in those moments. And you’ve just got to go play football when it comes down to it.”
LOS ANGELES RAMS Among the other things QB MATTHEW STAFFORD could earn with two more wins is a gold coat. Matt Schwab of YahooSports.com:
There are eight quarterbacks in NFL history with 50,000 yards and at least one Super Bowl win.
Tom Brady. Drew Brees. Peyton Manning. Brett Favre. Ben Roethlisberger. Eli Manning. Aaron Rodgers. John Elway. That’s three Hall of Famers, four locks and Eli Manning. We’ve all heard the debate on Eli Manning’s HOF candidacy by now, and he has a chance to make it eight-for-eight.
Matthew Stafford is at 49,995 career yards, which is 12th all-time. He’s five yards and two wins this postseason — both of those Los Angeles Rams games would come at home, too — from being in that group above.
And ready or not, with two more Rams wins, get ready to start talking about Stafford as a Hall of Famer. Because it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t get in, based on history.
Should Matthew Stafford be a Hall of Famer? A lot of counting stats and a Super Bowl practically make you a Hall of Fame lock. On top of that, Stafford’s case would be unique.
First, let’s keep going down the list of all-time passing yards. Joe Flacco has 41,269 yards, a Super Bowl ring and is unlikely to get any real Hall of Fame consideration. He has the most passing yards ever for a quarterback with a ring and no real Hall of Fame case. Russell Wilson has 37,059 yards, a ring and he has a chance for the Hall. Phil Simms is at 33,462 and not in the Hall. Everyone else with at least 30,000 yards and a ring is in. Stafford will get 60,000 yards with three more good seasons. He might reach 70,000.
Stafford has about 50 percent more yards than Simms and he’ll be just 34 next season. He’ll lap Flacco too. If Stafford wins a championship, the only realistic comparison to Stafford in terms of a Hall of Fame argument would be Eli Manning. We’ll see if Manning gets in, but it would be unprecedented if he didn’t.
It would also be unprecedented if Stafford didn’t get in if he gets a Super Bowl title. Especially since the first 12 seasons of his career would be entirely excused.
It’s not hard to figure out what would happen if the Rams win a Super Bowl this season, Stafford’s first with the team. The narrative of Stafford’s career would be that the Detroit Lions were entirely at fault. It’s not entirely accurate. But Stafford making just one Pro Bowl and leading zero playoff wins would be blamed completely on a Lions franchise that has one playoff win since 1957. There’s no need in fighting it. That would be how Stafford’s career is viewed going forward, and we all know it.
Stafford wouldn’t be the only reason the Rams would win a Super Bowl either. Sean McVay is a fantastic coach (taking Jared Goff to a Super Bowl is aging very well), Aaron Donald might be a top-five all-time defensive player, and other guys like Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Andrew Whitworth, Von Miller, Jalen Ramsey and Leonard Floyd are blue-chip players. There’s at least a couple future Hall of Famers in that group.
But too much NFL analysis unfortunately begins and ends and quarterback. If the Rams win, many will simply give all the credit to Stafford and ignore the great teammates listed in the paragraph above. Again, that’s just how it goes. Consider how many people cite quarterback wins as a real stat.
The better question for Stafford is if he has a shot at the Hall of Fame without a title. He could reach 70,000 yards with about five more seasons, and that group is Brady, Brees, Peyton Manning and Favre. Stafford is also an attainable 77 touchdowns from 400 in his career, and that group is only eight names long. Counting stats always matter for Hall of Fame arguments. If Stafford never wins a title, he’ll go in the Philip Rivers/Matt Ryan bin of players who might come up just short of the Hall despite ranking very high in some key categories. There’s a lot on the line for Stafford these next two games.
What probably won’t be worth arguing is if Stafford makes the Hall of Fame if the Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and then win Super Bowl LVI. He’ll likely get the votes. Maybe there will be a nuanced discussion over the years that follow examining Stafford’s role in why the Lions couldn’t win one division title, why Stafford made only one Pro Bowl, and assigning proper credit to Stafford’s Rams teammates and not just singularly crediting the quarterback. But probably not.
AFC WEST
DENVER If Nathanial Hackett is the head coach, can QB AARON RODGERS and WR DAVANTE ADAMS be far behind? Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Broncos are on the verge of hiring their next head coach: Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
Hackett and the Broncos are finalizing a deal this morning after contract talks heated up on Wednesday night, according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network.
The 42-year-old Hackett was a hot name in this year’s coaching cycle and was scheduled to have a second interview with the Jaguars today.
Hackett has spent the last three seasons as the Packers’ offensive coordinator and three seasons before that as the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator. He has also been the Bills’ offensive coordinator and the offensive coordinator at Syracuse.
The Packers have had a great offense during Hackett’s tenure with the team, but how much of that was Hackett, how much was head coach Matt LaFleur, and how much was quarterback Aaron Rodgers is an open question. The biggest question now is who the quarterback running Hackett’s offense in Denver will be.
More from ESPN.com:
Of all the offensive assistants interviewed by the Broncos, Hackett had the deepest résumé as a former playcaller for both Buffalo and Jacksonville before his time with the Packers.
During interviews with Denver, he had to detail how he would make the transition to running the entire team as well as the construction of the defensive staff. Also, Hackett had to answer how he would keep his game day organized if he, as a first-time head coach, was also going to try to call plays.
Hackett, 42, was the Jaguars’ quarterbacks coach from 2015 to 2016 and offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2018 before getting fired in the middle of the 2018 season. The Jaguars reached the AFC Championship Game in the 2017 season.
When his father, Paul, was on Marty Schottenheimer’s Kansas City Chiefs staff, Hackett was a ball boy for the team and even filled in as a long-snapper during drills at times. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has lauded Hackett’s preparation and ability to break down, as well as deliver, the information to players.
Hackett had a second interview scheduled with Jacksonville, where Byron Leftwich of the Buccaneers would seem to be the front-runner.
KANSAS CITY Todd McShay on how QB PATRICK MAHOMES has confounded traditional QB scouting:
Patrick Mahomes’ tape in the lead-up to the 2017 NFL draft was scary. It was littered with off-balance passes, sidearm deliveries, leaning throws, backward drifts and lots of improvisation. His footwork was frantic; he didn’t consistently step through to his target; and he looked more like shortstop hurling a baseball across the diamond on the move than a potential first-round franchise quarterback.
You can typically tell when a ball is going to be a completion just by watching what happens before it leaves the quarterback’s hand. And so much of Mahomes’ tape from his Texas Tech days featured the mechanics you’d usually see on an incompletion. But here’s the thing: He was still consistently completing these passes. I’ve been scouting quarterbacks for the NFL draft since 1999, and I’ve never seen such tremendous results on a consistent basis for a quarterback with such messy mechanics. And I can confidently say I’ve never had a more difficult QB evaluation than Mahomes’ 2017 scouting report because of that vast difference.
Mahomes’ evaluation, and his greatness in spite of the mechanics, still carries significance for me today. Why? Because it fundamentally changed the way I scout quarterbacks for the draft.
If you’ve been watching the NFL for the past four years — or if you just happened to tune in Sunday night for the Kansas City Chiefs’ wild overtime win versus the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs — you know not much has changed with Mahomes. He is among the league’s best quarterbacks despite the fact we rarely see him throw with the kind of mechanics traditionally thought to bring pro success. He makes incredible throws that just don’t seem possible, and he does it all the time. Mahomes has proved to me that the result is ultimately what matters, regardless of whether the prototypical quarterback mechanics are there.
Mahomes’ 2017 tape Until Mahomes came along, I’d say about 90% of what I was looking for on a QB’s tape was what happened before the ball left his hand, and I was pretty rigid on that. Proper footwork in the pocket. Clean drops from center. Stepping to and through the target. Driving hips and following through. Typically an over-the-top delivery. Successful NFL quarterbacks were the ones who threw from a solid base, married their eyes to their feet and pulled the trigger on throws with a clean release. Everything was about that process, and it was drilled home by coaches, scouts, QB evaluators and, well, the best quarterbacks in the league. The top-graded QBs were all pocket passers with excellent mechanics.
I distinctly remember starting Mahomes’ final evaluation and watching three games on tape right before the combine. His tape was unlike anything I had ever seen. He’d take the snap and immediately drift backward for no particular reason and sling sidearm and off balance. And you’d cringe until you saw the throw connect for a perfectly placed vertical shot.
Regarding accuracy, I wrote in my pre-draft scouting report: “[Mahomes] shows excellent touch, trajectory and ball placement on vertical throws. One of the best deep-ball passers in this class. He completes a bunch of throws from … off-balance launch points. But he also misses entirely on too many open targets because his mechanics are all over the place. Rarely throws from a balanced base, steps to his target and transfers his weight from back to front.”
In terms of arm strength and release, my report read, “He can snap his wrist and deliver the deep out on a rope (and can do the same 50-plus yards downfield). Fits the ball into some ridiculously tight windows. Delivery and release point are all over the place, which can be both good and bad. He’s very comfortable throwing off-platform and from different arm angles, but he can also get unnecessarily sloppy with his mechanics. His natural delivery is over-the-top, but he frequently throws sidearm (and occasionally even mixes in a submarine-style throw).”
And finally, looking at his pocket presence: “He extends a lot of plays with his feet, and he thrives after the initial play breaks down. … He shows a natural feel for sensing pressure, but his pocket discipline is poor at this point. He frequently bails too early and has a strong tendency to drift (even when there’s no pressure). He needs to be more consistent climbing the pocket versus perimeter pressure.”
You’ll notice there are a lot of “buts” in there. And that’s what the evaluation was: a lot of weighing poor mechanics from a traditional standpoint with unbelievable results. In his 2016 season at Texas Tech, Mahomes threw for north of 5,000 yards, completed 65.7% of his throws, tossed 41 touchdown passes and was intercepted 10 times — and he added another 12 rushing scores. He also had an 82.5 Total QBR and led college football in expected points added.
Early on in the process, I had a second- or third-round grade on Mahomes. I didn’t think he was ready, and I couldn’t push the flawed mechanics aside. But I came around slowly as I started focusing more and more on the results of the throws rather than the throws themselves. It was a foreign premise, but Mahomes was different. Ultimately, he earned an 85 grade and closed at No. 44 on my board (QB3 behind Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson). And yes, most of the industry also had its concerns about Mahomes, but the Chiefs ultimately liked what they saw enough to trade up to No. 10 in the draft and take him as their future starter.
That, of course, was another big part of it: Mahomes went to the right spot. You can’t count on that happening, but it worked out ideally for him — and Kansas City. My scouting report went into that too, stating, “It would be in his best interest to sit and learn as a rookie while making a sizeable transition from an offense [at Texas Tech] that features a small playbook, limited playcalling verbiage and minimal pre-snap responsibility for the QB.” I remember talking to Mahomes during the preseason of his rookie year about my evaluation of him, and he recognized how perfectly things fell together. He had the chance to learn behind coach Andy Reid and veteran QB Alex Smith for a year, and it paid off.
How have things changed? Mahomes has gone on to four seasons of elite-tier QB play after sitting out that rookie year. He won MVP in 2018 after throwing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdown passes. He then won Super Bowl MVP for the champion Chiefs after the 2019 campaign and led Kansas City back to the Super Bowl (a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) last season.
And finally, he threw for 4,839 yards and 37 touchdown passes this season, even though we all wondered whether the NFL had figured him out at midseason. Kansas City started 3-4, and Mahomes wasn’t able to hit the downfield shots with as much ease against defensive coverages that kept two safeties high. No problem. Mahomes adapted, finishing in the top five in Total QBR for a fourth straight year and leading the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game (and they might not stop there).
The continued success and the ability to hit those nonstandard throws on a consistent basis made me reconsider how I evaluate the position, and my scouting mentality absolutely shifted. Yes, I still look for the tried-and-true footwork and delivery that typically leads to success at the next level, and that’s still the biggest thing. But I also know that can’t and shouldn’t be all of it. Mahomes was an eye-opener in that respect.
In fact, what was seen as a potential problem in his scouting report is actually now his strength. Yes, Mahomes still has poor pocket discipline. He still drifts, weaves and bails out. And he still at times throws off balance, leaning away and from different arm slots. But he can do so many amazing things while facing irregular situations and with his body contorted. Which way he is leaning or what his arm angle is doesn’t matter. Mahomes has the unique ability to still place the ball where it needs to go, despite the mess. So many others can’t do that, and Mahomes does things better in chaos than anyone else in the NFL.
And so, I’ve tweaked the way I scout QBs in the years since, looking at the final result of a throw a little bit more than I had in the past. Footwork, pocket presence and a tidy throwing motion all matter a great deal, but a quarterback’s ability to find success even when the process isn’t right is extremely important.
Who has followed — and who fits the bill in 2022? It didn’t take long for another quarterback to come along with similar traits. The Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray was from a similar college system (Oklahoma) and had that same baseball background. He similarly moved around behind the line of scrimmage, threw off balance and from different arm angles, and didn’t always set his feet. In his 2019 scouting report, I wrote, “He displays natural touch and timing as a passer, throwing accurately from a variety of different arm angles. He really excels at off-balance throws, but he gets into trouble when he falls off of throws, typically when the pocket is collapsing.”
Murray finished with a 90 grade for me in 2019 (five points higher than Mahomes had been in 2017) and was my top-ranked QB in the class at No. 9 overall. His game had a lot of improv and wasn’t always pretty, but like Mahomes, he had results. Murray was the No. 1 pick that year, and he has since been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy.
Then there was Jordan Love in 2020, who wound up the Green Bay Packers’ selection at No. 26 after a trade up the board. I had a 90 grade on him, and he was No. 20 in my final rankings. That was higher than most had him, and I’m not sure I would have been as high on him before Mahomes’ draft year. Love’s report read, “Inconsistent footwork leads to some missed throws. That said, he has a very high ceiling and flashes outstanding potential on tape. He creates and throws off platform as well as anyone in this class. He can drop his arm angle and adjust his release point to avoid pressure. And he has the arm strength to throw into tight windows.” It remains to be seen what Love can do at the pro level, but lessons from Mahomes’ evaluation played a part in how I looked at Love’s game when he came out of Utah State.
Most recently, Zach Wilson’s tape from BYU shared traits with that of Mahomes, though maybe not on the same scale as Murray and even Love did. Wilson’s evaluation stated, “One of his best traits is his ability to extend plays. He has the instincts and agility to create after the initial play breaks down, and he also does a very good job of adjusting his arm angles to generate throwing windows. His ability to throw receivers open also stands out, as Wilson shows above-average touch against zone looks.” Wilson was the No. 2 pick for the New York Jets in 2021, and he was my No. 4 prospect.
As far as the 2022 class goes, no one really fits the mold. I have extensively studied the top seven guys — Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh), Matt Corral (Ole Miss), Malik Willis (Liberty), Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati), Sam Howell (UNC), Carson Strong (Nevada) and Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky) — and I don’t even see a neighborhood comparison. Howell has some similar traits; he throws off balance with good trajectory and has the arm strength to deliver the ball downfield despite not a lot of weight transfer, but he lacks Mahomes’ anticipation. Willis is maybe a little bit closer to what we’re talking about here — his off-platform throws have some “wow” factor — but the results haven’t always been there (albeit with a lesser supporting cast at Liberty).
Mahomes is ultimately in a class of his own, and quarterbacks like him don’t come around often. But he is a reminder that they can come along — and that the position has changed so much in the past decade. He creates magic in the pocket, feeling and eluding pressure with outstanding short-area agility, locating a receiver while keeping his eyes downfield then delivering the ball with the right trajectory and velocity regardless of the arm angle. His unique trait is the ability to stay under control when it breaks down around him and place the ball perfectly, regardless of what position he is in. It’s remarkable.
This Sunday, he will try to punch his third ticket to the Super Bowl in four seasons, and hopefully we’ll get to see some more incredible throws from him in the AFC Championship Game against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals. They likely won’t be textbook dropbacks and over-the-top passes, and I’m sure we will see plenty of technically imperfect throws. But I’m also sure he will hit his mark more often than not and will make some throws most NFL quarterbacks can’t.
Most of the time poor mechanics mean red flags. But the scouting lesson is they don’t always mean that.
LAS VEGAS Ruston Webster, once the GM of the Titans, gets an interview. Ian Rapoport with the tweet:
@RapSheet The #Raiders recently conducted a pair of GM interviews: They spoke with #Falcons national scout and former #Titans GM Ruston Webster, source said, and they interviewed #Steelers Pro Scouting Coordinator Brandon Hunt, per @TomPelissero
Dave Choate of TheFalcoholic:
Webster would be an experienced choice for Las Vegas, which fired Mike Mayock recently. After 18 years with Tampa Bay in a variety of roles and four years with Seattle, Webster became the vice president of player personnel for Tennesse in 2010 and spent two years there, taking over as the general manager in 2012. He brought aboard Taylor Lewan, Marcus Mariota, DaQuan Jones and Avery Williamson in his four drafts, but whiffed on quite a few picks and the team was brutally bad over the last couple of seasons of his tenure. The Raiders would presumably be interested in Webster’s ability to build a front office based on his leaguewide connections, the strength of his scouting background, and potentially recommendations from Falcons executives including Rich McKay.
It’s not a knock on the Falcons scout, but it’s sort of a surprise to me to see Webster getting interviews before former Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff, who despite his free agent foibles and Atlanta’s bombed-out cap heading into 2021 also is an experienced executive with a quality draft track record, including a recent crown jewel in A.J. Terrell. After firing Mayock, who didn’t exactly have a wealth of experience as a personnel man and was by some reports walked over by disgraced coach Jon Gruden, it’s not a surprise that the Raiders might want someone with Webster’s background, however.
ProFootballRumors is reporting that John Spytek of the Tampa Bay front office is also getting a Raiders interview. – – – By .01%, CB NATE HOBBS avoids a DUI. Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com:
Las Vegas Raiders rookie cornerback Nate Hobbs pleaded guilty to a careless driving charge Wednesday after a DUI charge was dropped when it was determined he was under the legal limit, the Clark County (Nevada) District Attorney’s office announced.
Hobbs, 22, was arrested after 4 a.m. on Jan. 3, the morning after the Raiders’ Week 17 win at the Indianapolis Colts, when he was found asleep at the wheel of his car in the exit lane of a parking garage for The Cromwell hotel near the Las Vegas Strip.
“In the days following his arrest, a toxicological analysis of his blood revealed that Mr. Hobbs was under the legal limit for a DUI charge,” the release read.
Prosecutors said Hobbs’ BAC was 0.07%, under the Nevada legal limit of 0.08%.
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE John Harbaugh is ready to take back the defensive coordinator who helped turn around his brother’s fortunes at Michigan. Pete Thamel and Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:
The defensive coordinator who keyed Michigan’s dramatic turnaround in 2021 is on the cusp of heading back to the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens have targeted Michigan defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, a former Ravens assistant, to be John Harbaugh’s next defensive coordinator, sources told ESPN.
A deal is expected to be finalized in the coming days, according to sources. Macdonald has been replaced on the road recruiting by a graduate assistant coach, Dylan Roney, in preparation for his departure.
The Detroit Free Press first reported that the Ravens were targeting Macdonald.
This comes after Macdonald stabilized a defense that keyed a one-year turnaround for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, as the Wolverines went from 2-4 in 2020 to the College Football Playoff and a 12-2 record this past season.
Michigan’s scoring defense under Macdonald improved from No. 95 in 2020 with 34.5 points per game to No. 8 with 17.4 PPG. Michigan went on to beat Ohio State for the first time since 2011 and win the Big Ten for the first time since 2004.
Macdonald’s hire at Michigan proved to be one of the most impactful in all of college football last season. His schemes helped eliminate Michigan’s propensity under former defensive coordinator Don Brown to give up big plays. Under Macdonald, the Wolverines yielded 100 fewer yards per game in 2021, an average of 330.8 after giving up 434.3 the prior season.
Macdonald also helped launch the Heisman candidacy of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who was a finalist for the award after finishing with 14 sacks and two forced fumbles.
Macdonald, 34, would become the youngest defensive coordinator in the Ravens’ 26-year history. Before leaving for Michigan last year, Macdonald spent seven years in Baltimore (2014-20), having joined the Ravens in 2014 as an intern. He was Baltimore’s inside linebackers coach for three seasons (2018-20) and was considered the heir apparent for defensive coordinator there before leaving for Michigan.
The Ravens fired Don “Wink” Martindale on Friday after the sides were unable to agree on a contract extension through 2023, a source said. Under Martindale, the Baltimore defense ranked in the top 10 in three of four seasons.
Macdonald would take over a Ravens defense that finished No. 25 in the NFL last season. That was Baltimore’s worst defensive ranking since it was 25th in 1997.
CINCINNATI Chiefs Nation prides itself that Arrowhead Stadium is the loudest venue in the NFL, louder than any dome, louder than Seattle. Joe Burrow of the Bengals says, big deal, I played in the SEC. Nick Shook of NFL.com:
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are on course for Arrowhead Stadium, a venue notorious for cranking up the decibels.
Burrow won’t be bringing his earplugs to Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. The quarterback has plenty of experience playing in loud stadiums from his college days spent in the Southeastern Conference.
“In the SEC, every single week it seems like every stadium is really loud, there’s hundreds of thousands of people,” Burrow said Wednesday. “This one is going to be similar. We expect it to be really loud, we’re talking about it throughout the week. We’re going to have to be great with our communication, our non-verbal communication, just like every week on the road.”
Burrow has addressed potentially difficult road environments during the regular season, pointing to his time at Louisiana State by telling reporters it “gets way louder in the SEC than in any of these NFL stadiums.” Former Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes doesn’t believe Burrow understands the setting he’ll be walking into this weekend, tweeting Burrow “is in for a rude awakening.”
We can debate decibel levels for days (Seattle also might have something to say about crowd noise), but Burrow got a taste of audible adversity last weekend in Cincinnati’s Divisional Round win over Tennessee. Burrow said his helmet’s radio lost communication with coaches’ headsets, including play-caller and head coach Zac Taylor, during the game, requiring the second-year quarterback to call his own plays for a portion of the contest.
It was the first time he’d been in such a spot. Burrow handled it well.
“No, I’ve never been in that position before,” Burrow said of losing contact with his coaches. “That was kind of exciting for me. Zac always kind of jokes, ‘Hey, don’t pretend like the headset goes out so you can call your own plays.’ But on Saturday, the headset did go out, and so I had to call three or four plays on my own. And all of them worked, so that was fun.”
While he didn’t throw a touchdown pass, Burrow was sharp in Cincinnati’s win over Tennessee, completing 28 of 37 passes for 348 yards. An interception was the lone stain on his stat line, but when it mattered most, Burrow again came through, hitting Ja’Marr Chase on a 19-yard completion that moved the Bengals into field goal range in the final minute of regulation. Evan McPherson drilled the 52-yard field goal to send the Bengals to the conference title game.
Burrow’s Bengals will likely find themselves in a shootout this weekend against a familiar opponent. Cincinnati needed 34 points and a clock-draining final possession to defeat Kansas City in Week 17, clinching the AFC North crown in the process.
In that game, the Bengals had home-field advantage. They won’t have the same luxury this weekend. As Tynes tweeted, Burrow will become very familiar with the hostile environment of Arrowhead Stadium.
It will be up to the youngster to prove the former kicker wrong with his performance — and perhaps his ability to communicate amid adverse circumstances — in order to help the Bengals reach the Super Bowl. – – – Burrow’s favorite target, WR Ja’MARR CHASE has a chip on his shoulder like his QB. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
Sometimes when coaches make an assessment about a player, they get it right.
Other times, they get that judgment flat-out wrong.
Such is the case for former LSU head coach Les Miles and now rookie sensation receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
During his Wednesday press conference for the AFC Championship Game, Chase was asked how he developed a mindset to accomplish things that people say he’s unable to do. At first, Chase said he wasn’t sure if he had any stories. Then he recalled one of his “best stories ever.”
“Les Miles told me I couldn’t play receiver when I was coming out of high school, so that was something I had on my shoulders coming up,” Chase said.
What?
“Les Miles told me he thought I could play cornerback, I wasn’t really in full position at receiver yet,” Chase said. “So I just kept working at my craft [in the] offseason — waking up early in the mornings to work out. I just kept focused.”
Chase didn’t end up playing for Miles, who was fired in September 2016. Ed Orgeron came in as head coach for the 2017 season and Chase entered the program as a true freshman in 2018.
After catching 84 passes for 1,780 yards with 20 touchdowns in LSU’s National Championship season of 2019, it sure looked like Chase could play receiver. But with 81 receptions for 1,455 yards with 13 touchdowns as an NFL rookie — plus 14 receptions for 225 yards in two playoff games — there’s absolutely no doubt Miles was wrong.
AFC SOUTH
JACKSONVILLE Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
It looks like one of the nine head coach vacancies is about to be filled.
According to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, the Jaguars are trying to finalize a deal with Buccaneers offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich to become the team’s new head coach.
Leftwich had a second interview with the Jaguars on Tuesday after the Bucs were eliminated from the postseason by the Rams on Sunday.
Should the two sides land the plane, it would represent a homecoming of sorts for Leftwich. Jacksonville selected Leftwich with the No. 7 overall pick back in 2003. He started 44 games in four years for the franchise, compiling a 24-20 record while throwing for 9,042 yards with 51 touchdowns and 36 interceptions.
Leftwich’s No. 1 charge will be to develop 2021 first overall pick, quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
According to Stroud, current Buccaneers receivers coach Kevin Garver could follow Leftwich to Jacksonville as a potential offensive coordinator.
Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians said he would consider taking back play-calling duties should Leftwich get a head coaching job. It increasingly looks like that will be the case.
If Leftwich is hired, the Buccaneers will get an extra third-round pick as a reward for having developed a black head coach.
THIS AND THAT
PAYTON’S EVENTUAL PLACE Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com gives us his take on Sean Payton’s future:
Sean Payton is not coaching in the NFL in 2022. That much we know. Sorry, Dallas Cowboys fans.
It’s not happening, in Dallas or anywhere else. Payton stepped away from the New Orleans Saints after a fantastic 16-year run to reboot, for some unspecified amount of time. Payton himself doesn’t entirely know. But it’s going to be at least one NFL season as he transitions out of working 18-hour days for most of the year, and into a more holistic and free lifestyle.
Could be that one year of working in the media – where this is ultimately headed – is enough for Payton. Could be that he comes to love the ability to spend abundant time with friends and family, enjoying the spoils of his labor (he’s been coaching in one capacity or another continuously since 1988), and decides he’d rather continue to analyze football rather than devote his life to coaching football for a long, long time. There will be suitors, many of them, and owners will be flirting with Payton, aggressively, by the middle of next season. Many will try, sooner rather than later, and perhaps one will succeed by 2023.
At age 58, it could go either way.
Clearly, anyone who watched his riveting and unprecedented press conference on Tuesday could tell that coaching was still very much in his blood, though that could surely wane as he enters a new stage of his life and career. Regardless of what Payton decides, make no mistake that your team isn’t trading for his rights in the coming weeks. His coaching hiatus – not a retirement he implored – is of undetermined length, but will keep him off the sidelines in 2022.
“I don’t know what’s next, and it kind of feels good,” Payton said with a smile during a wildly entertaining and freewheeling 90-minute session with the media (which he will soon enough join).
But before we go any further, let’s acknowledge his inedible imprint on a franchise that was a bit of a laughingstock before he arrived. There were rumors of a possible move to San Antonio, where then-owner Tom Benson had other business interests. They were still hounded by being the “Aints,” with fans wearing bags over their head to games, and winning on the big stage was simply not woven into their organizational DNA.
Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006, a driven fast-riser at just age 33, fresh off leading the passing game for Bill Parcells in Dallas. He would walk away from New Orleans with only Bill Belichick having a longer tenure with any current team. The Saints were coming off a 3-13 season, and they had won just one division title since 1991. They had reached the playoffs once since 1993. And the region would endure some historically destructive storms that would force the team to relocate several times during Payton’s tenure.
He and Drew Brees helped restore the franchise and belief in Who Dat Nation. He would build a perennial playoff contender, would hoist the team’s lone Lombardi Trophy after a coaching tour de force to defeat New Orleans native son Peyton Manning for the chalice. He would win Coach of the Year in his first season there, capping an improbable playoff run, and never finished worse than 7-9; there was always something to play for with him in charge. The NFL banished him for a year as part of its controversial “Bountygate” investigation, and he emerged a more introspective coach, taking a new tact with the media and his players.
Payton won 62% of his games in New Orleans, a franchise that barely won 40% of its games from 1967-2005. They had one playoff win before he arrived; they celebrated nine with Payton at the helm. He passed the 150 win milestone in this past season, one in which he once again willed the team to a near playoff run despite another storm-derailed season and a roster ravaged by injuries — including starting quarterback Jameis Winston — for almost all of the year.
The fires that burned so bright to bring him to this point may cool down as he transitions from an overburdened schedule to one with almost no professional responsibilities. Personally, I suspect there is a second act in coaching. That’s my hunch. Payton has been the subject of consistent overtures over the years, from college or pro programs, and that will only intensify by the holiday season this year, as owners and athletic directors start to mull which big fish they might be able to haul in to change their fortunes.
It’s hard to imagine at least a half dozen teams – conservatively – aren’t seriously pursuing Payton by the start of 2023. Not even Payton knows exactly where his heart and mind will be by that time, but here’s a handful of teams that could make sense, starting with his buddy Jerry Jones, who has known him most of his professional life and saw his work firsthand as a Cowboys assistant.
Dallas Cowboys We all know all the ties and connections by now. And we know that Mike McCarthy is hanging on for dear life as Cowboys coach as it is. Particularly with defensive coordinator virtually certain of landing a head coaching gig elsewhere, and with the Dallas offense falling apart the last two years, it would shocking if Jones did not attempt to trade for Payton from the Saints by 2023. But, again, he will have competition.
Carolina Panthers Matt Rhule’s future in Carolina looks pretty bleak. Owner David Tepper is frustrated and mulled firing him last year. He is desperate for a face of the franchise and someone to finally solve his quarterback riddle. Payton would do both. Going back to the NFC South to face the Saints twice a year might not be something the coach wants to do, but if there is a bidding war for Payton I have a hard time not seeing this billionaire in it. He doesn’t care about the money.
Seattle Seahawks There is very strong mutual admiration between Payton and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson would have coveted playing for him last year had the Saints had the cap and payroll flexibility to make a bold move like that. Pete Carroll’s future in Seattle may hinge on showing real progress in 2022, which looks difficult given their roster and lack of draft picks. If they don’t deal Wilson this offseason, and ownership wants to find a way to get the future Hall of Fame QB to do an extension there, giving him a genius offensive mind like Payton would be a massive coup. Wilson knows exactly what Payton did with Brees, another smaller QB.
New York Jets Payton in the Big Apple, where his mentor, Bill Parcells, became an icon, just feels right. He could handle that media market and Jets owner Woody Johnson hasn’t been able to get much right to this point with any major decisions. How does this team look in Year 2 under Robert Saleh? How bad is fan apathy? Who better than Payton to try to wring the best out of QB Zach Wilson after a tough rookie year for the second-overall pick? When is the last time the Jets hired a proven, winning NFL head coach?
Arizona Cardinals Kliff Kingsbury’s second halves of seasons continue to leave much to be desired, Kyler Murray hasn’t taken any new bold steps forward in his development and this offense tends to run out of ideas – and productivity – by Thanksgiving. Let’s just say none of this is lost on ownership. Who better to take Kyler to MVP territory? Think of what Payton did with Brees, despite his size limitations? What a massive coaching upgrade that would be.
L.A. Chargers If this ownership group has been more aggressive in the past, they may have had a chance to trade for Payton in the past. L.A. has long had appeal to him, and coaching Justin Herbert would appeal to anyone. Brandon Staley is a bright young mind, but the Chargers defense better get way better under him in 2022, and the in-game gambles better pay off way more than they did his rookie coaching season to stave off interest in someone as accomplished as Payton. Spending big for a head coach hasn’t been in this team’s DNA in the past, but they also haven’t had a generational QB talent like Herbert in a long, long time, either. Winning someone of note while he is on his rookie contract must be imperative. |