NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

CB JAYLON JOHNSON has made himself some money in his contract year per former agent Joel Corry at CBSSports.com:

Jaylon Johnson, CB, Bears

Financial benchmark: Trevon Diggs ($19.4 million avg./$42.304 million in guarantees/5 years)

Probability: $$$

Johnson has put himself in the shutdown cornerback conversation this season. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 46.3% of passes (25 of 54 attempts) for a 31.0 passer rating when targeting Johnson, according to PFF. He also has a career-high four interceptions.

Johnson hasn’t let the business of football become a distraction. The two sides weren’t on the same page for a contract extension when the Bears granted Johnson’s camp permission to shop him to other teams shortly before the late-October trade deadline. The Bears were reportedly looking for a late first-round pick or early second-round pick in a trade. Johnson has recently expressed a desire to remain in Chicago.

The Bears quickly getting a deal done with defensive end Montez Sweat, shortly after acquiring him at the trade deadline, has opened up the franchise tag for Johnson. The cornerback franchise tag projects to $18.802 million with a $242.5 million 2024 salary cap.

DETROIT

Bill Barnwell looks at the flaw that could keep the Lions from winning the Super Bowl:

Detroit Lions

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 2.2%

The Lions’ flaw: Beating pressure

Given time to throw, Jared Goff is one of the smoothest quarterbacks in the game. His 77.3 QBR without pressure this season is the third-best mark for any quarterback, and it’s nothing new. Goff was fifth in that category in 2022. His ability to work through his progressions and deliver an accurate ball is not in question at this point of his career, and he can be lethal working the middle of the field when nobody gets in his face.

Everyone is worse when they get pressured. The average passer sees their QBR drop by more than 42 points, as they post a 66.8 QBR without pressure and a 24.7 mark with the defensive line bearing down. The best quarterback in the league under pressure this season is Dak Prescott, and he has only mustered a 60.9 QBR. Even a below-average quarterback with pass protection is better, by ESPN’s metric, than a superstar with a defensive lineman in his face.

All that said, Goff simply melts down. His 8.8 QBR under pressure is 26th in the league, which ranks below the likes of Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. The 68.5-point QBR difference between how Goff has performed with and without pressure is also the largest for any quarterback. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has the second-worst completion percentage over expected (CPOE) under pressure and has thrown eight picks on just 135 pass attempts under duress this season. That interception rate is more than twice the league average for pressured quarterbacks.

Could it be a one-year fluke? Maybe. Since 2016, though, 25 quarterbacks have thrown at least 2,000 NFL passes. Goff is 15th out of those 25 signal-callers in QBR without pressure, but he drops to 22nd out of the 25 when opponents do get home with their pass rush. Anyone who has watched Goff play during his time with the Rams and Lions has probably seen Goff make mistakes and struggle when he doesn’t have consistent pass protection.

The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league on paper, but left tackle Taylor Decker and even right tackle Penei Sewell have gotten beat at times over the past two months. The Packers game on Thanksgiving stands out as a notably rough game for both players. The normally excellent duo has combined to allow eight sacks over the past seven games. Decker, in particular, has struggled with bull rushes and larger linemen outmuscling him of late.

Team to avoid: Dallas Cowboys. Lions fans might feel like they should have beaten the Cowboys after the controversial scenario on Dallas’s 2-point play near the end of the game last week, but Detroit was outplayed by Mike McCarthy’s team for most of the contest. The Cowboys lost a fumble through the end zone for a touchback and were in position to seal a win late before a questionable tripping call on Peyton Hendershot. The Lions can beat anybody on their day, but there are far more comfortable matchups for the Lions in the NFC.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

Bill Barnwell looks at the flaw that could keep the Eagles from winning the Super Bowl:

Philadelphia Eagles

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 1.9%

The Eagles’ flaw: Pass defense

Frustrated Eagles fans might wonder why we’re being so specific by picking one flaw. It was only a year ago that a defense with 70 regular-season sacks was about to light up the Giants and 49ers in the postseason. After an offseason where the Eagles lost defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, top defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, both starting linebackers and both starting safeties, and then had one of the oldest defenses in football age by a year, anyone paying attention would have expected the Eagles defense to decline from where it had been in 2022.

As one of those skeptics, though, I never expected the Eagles defense to be this bad in 2023. Philadelphia is 29th in QBR allowed, nestled between the Bengals and Giants. The Eagles have allowed 34 touchdown passes, which is only one short of the rival Commanders for the most in the NFL. The Eagles turn average quarterbacks they’ve faced this season into a typical performance from Dak Prescott, who is going to be on the outskirts of the MVP discussion.

I believe Eagles fans could have seen a scenario where the secondary struggled, but the pass rush falling apart seems particularly ominous. The Eagles are 29th in pressure rate and 25th in sack rate over the full season. Things have gotten worse as the year has gone along; they are 30th in sack rate since Week 10, having taken down opposing quarterbacks just 11 times over the past seven games. They had nine sacks in a game last season.

If there’s a comparable defense for these Eagles, I’d look at last season’s Vikings. That Minnesota team had a solid front four, but if the pass rush didn’t get home, it was too easy for teams to beat soft, passive coverage and take advantage of mismatches. Throwing short against the Eagles is like a seven-on-seven drill. Their 84.5 QBR against those throws is the worst mark in the NFL by nearly five points.

Frustrated by their disappointing play, the Eagles went to the rare in-season change of a coordinator in December, as they demoted Sean Desai and promoted former Lions coach Matt Patricia to the lead role. We’ve seen a move like this work in the past for a playoff team: Jim Caldwell was promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator by the Ravens in December 2012 and then oversaw a stunning four-game performance by Joe Flacco, who led Baltimore to a Super Bowl.

Things haven’t gotten off to a great start, as the Eagles have lost two of Patricia’s first three games as defensive coordinator, including a 35-31 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals on Sunday. Since he took over the defense in the middle of the season, Patricia hasn’t been able to install anything dramatically different. The most notable shifts have been the use of rookie edge rusher Nolan Smith as a linebacker behind a five-man front and, surprisingly, a move toward more zone coverage. Patricia’s Lions had been the league’s most man coverage-heavy defense in football before his firing.

While a schematic breakthrough probably isn’t coming, the best hope for the Eagles might be the return of missing personnel. Cornerback Darius Slay has missed the past few weeks after knee surgery, but he should be back for the postseason. Slot corner Avonte Maddox just returned after missing most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, though he struggled in his play. And linebacker Zach Cunningham has been sidelined for most of December, while Nakobe Dean has played just five games.

Veteran imports like Bradley Roby and Shaquille Leonard haven’t looked good in the lineup, so the Eagles need to get as many of those vets back as possible to give Patricia’s defense any hope of thriving. The Eagles could also try increasing the workloads of top defensive linemen Josh Sweat and Jalen Carter in the hopes of having their best players on the field more often.

Team to avoid: San Francisco 49ers. A lot of teams want to avoid the 49ers, of course, but we saw Brock Purdy pick the Eagles’ soft zones apart for 314 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 42-19 win over Philly last month.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

We have a Pro Bowl story below – but this from Greg Auman on a shocking omission:

@gregauman

Arizona’s Budda Baker made the Pro Bowl as an NFC safety ahead of Antoine Winfield.

Baker: 0 INT, 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 sacks

Winfield: 3 INT, 5 FF, 4 FR, 5 sacks

Budda Baker is PFF’s No. 53 safety this season. Winfield is No. 2, behind Atlanta’s Jessie Bates, who also made the Pro Bowl.

– – –

Former agent Joel Corry, writing at CBSSports.com projects the new deal QB BAKER MAYFIELD has earned (hint GENO SMITH):

Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers

Financial benchmark: Geno Smith ($25 million avg./$40 million in guarantees/3 years worth up to $105 million with incentives and/or salary escalators)

Probability: $$$

The Buccaneers weren’t expected to be in contention for a fourth straight playoff berth with Mayfield taking over for a retiring Tom Brady at quarterback. Beating the Panthers in the regular-season finale will give the Buccaneers a third consecutive NFC South title and a 9-8 record.

Mayfield signed a fully guaranteed one-year, $4 million deal, worth up to $8.5 million through incentives, with the Buccaneers in March after a 2022 campaign in which his subpar play was an impetus for the Panthers firing head coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start. The Panthers released the 2018 first overall pick several weeks later. 

Mayfield is having a career resurgence with the Buccaneers. He is connecting on 64.4% of his passes for 3,907 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions to post a 95.9 passer rating. Mayfield has career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and completion percentage. There is reportedly mutual interest in Mayfield remaining with the Buccaneers beyond this season.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

Does rest mean rust?  Kyle Shanahan ponders that as Week 18 with the Rams looms.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has decided that quarterback Brock Purdy won’t play in Week 18 against the Rams. Shanahan told reporters on Wednesday that Purdy is the only healthy starter who definitely won’t play.

Shanahan was asked whether it would make sense to give 35-year-old left tackle Trent Williams an extra bye.

“I don’t think it’s good for anybody to take two weeks off,” Shanahan said. “You should see how Trent was when he came back after a month off or three weeks. It’s not good, but we’ll see how the game goes and everything. His mindset this week’s got to be that he is getting ready to play.”

There’s a difference between getting ready to play and playing a full game. It sounds as if Williams will practice and dress and play, but perhaps not play the entire game.

Purdy, for example, will go through a regular week of preparation, even if he won’t be playing.

“Brock, we’re treating this as a normal week,” Shanahan said. “So this is a normal Wednesday at this time of year, which means we go half-speed on everything. We don’t do anything full-speed this time of year on a Wednesday. Brock will get half of the reps with the ones. Sam will get the other. I want our team to treat this week as Brock going down on like the first play of the game. Now, that’s why I want them both repping it. I want Brock to get some work this week. That’s something I’d like us to be ready for if that unfortunately did happen. Thursday when it’s all full-speed, probably give Sam majority of them. We’ll talk about that after today. Friday, we’re back to walk-through.”

The key is to balance injury risk against the chances of rust. If the starters shut down for two entire weeks, it could get dicey in the divisional round against a team that will have played and won the prior weekend.

Still, the players who actually take the game reps in Week 18 need to be ready.

Purdy won’t play. It sounds like plenty of other starters will make cameo appearances, at best.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Bill Barnwell looks at the flaw that could keep the Rams from winning the Super Bowl:

Los Angeles Rams

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 1%

The Rams’ flaw: Kicking

After hitting their bye at 3-6, the Rams have morphed into one of the hottest teams in football. Aaron Donald & Co. are 6-1 since their Week 10 bye, with their one loss coming in overtime to the Ravens last month. With players like Kobie Turner and Kevin Dotson joining Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams as young standouts, the Rams have turned their rebuild year into a return to the playoffs.

The Rams clinched their postseason spot last week after veteran kicker Mason Crosby, the Giants’ fourth kicker of the season, missed a 54-yard field goal that would have given New York a two-point lead with 35 seconds to go. For Rams fans, it might have felt like a rare moment where the kicking game went their way.

Sean McVay’s team ranks last in the NFL in value gained on field goals and extra points this season. The Rams have hit on just 80.7% of their field goal and extra point attempts in 2023, a mark which ranks 31st in the league. Only the Patriots have been worse.

The Rams started the season with veteran kicker Brett Maher. Maher missed six of seven extra points for the Cowboys in the 2022 postseason, and while he went 12-of-13 on extra points with the Rams, the 34-year-old was just 17-of-23 on field goals. The Rams cut Maher in October and replaced him with rookie Lucas Havrisik, who had been on the Browns practice squad.

Havrisik hasn’t been better; the Arizona product went 15-of-20 on field goals and 19-of-22 on extra points. A 2-for-4 performance on point afters against the Giants led the Rams to cut Havrisik after the victory. They actually had Crosby on the practice squad at one point this season, but after cutting Havrisik, the Rams are going back to Maher for the final week of the regular season.

The only positive is that opposing kickers have only landed 85.7% of their kicks against the Rams, which is also 31st in the NFL. But unfortunately, preventing teams from succeeding on field goals and extra points is random luck; there’s no reason to believe the Rams will be as successful at keeping kicks from splitting the uprights in the postseason. Having a good kicker, on the other hand, isn’t luck. And right now, the Rams don’t appear to have one.

Team to avoid: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I don’t want to be cruel, but if Maher’s going to be kicking for this team in the postseason, the last place he probably wants to be is Tampa Bay, where he missed four of five extra points in a blowout Cowboys victory in January 2023.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

You may remember when an owner of a Kansas City restaurant accused Jackson Mahomes, the brother of QB PATRICK MAHOMES, of an assault in the media – and there was video to prove it.  Well, by the time court rolled around this week, she was singing a different tune and the judge has dropped the case.  Jack Baer ofYahooSports.com:

A judge dropped three felony charges against Jackson Mahomes, the younger brother of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, at the request of the prosecution on Wednesday, according to Johnson County court records.

Mahomes had been facing three counts of aggravated sexual battery and a fourth charge of misdemeanor battery over an incident at a Kansas City restaurant last February, in which he was accused of shoving a male waiter and forcibly kissing the female owner of the restaurant. He is still facing the misdemeanor battery charge.

Per KCTV, court documents show the alleged sexual battery victim refused to testify in court while claiming her encounter with Mahomes was consensual and she was not truthful with police. It’s unclear how those claims square with a publicly available surveillance footage of Mahomes appearing to grab the 40-year-old woman from behind by the neck and kissing her extensively.

The state reportedly opted to proceed with charges against Mahomes because of the existence of the surveillance footage and that “victims recant or become uncooperative for a host of reasons and this does not mean the original account to law enforcement was inaccurate.”

Previously, the restaurant owner had told the Kansas City Star that Mahomes requested to speak with her after he allegedly shoved her waiter, then grabbed her with enough force to leave a faint bruise:

“He forcibly kissed me out of nowhere,” Vaughn told The Star, “and I’m telling him, pushing him off saying, ‘What are you doing?’ And then he proceeded to do it two more times where the last time I was pushing him off and I can see on the cameras that somebody was outside the office door and I was yelling for them to come help because he’s big and massive.”

The remaining misdemeanor charge is tied to Mahomes’ alleged shoving of the waiter. The restaurant at the center of the allegations, Aspens Restaurant and Lounge, has since closed. The owner has since said she regrets that police got involved and claimed her restaurant had seen its outdoor pipes cut following the incident.

More details in an August Kansas City Star story on why the restaurant closed, and it’s not pretty:

Aspens Restaurant and Lounge at 6995 W. 151st St. in south Overland Park is closed until another tenant takes over, Stephanie Lopez, an administrative employee, told The Star on Tuesday.

“I’m sure the right person will come along,” Lopez said. “We just want somebody else to make it into whatever their dream restaurant is.”

Mahomes was arrested and charged in May with three felony counts of aggravated sexual battery and one misdemeanor count of battery after an alleged incident involving the restaurant’s owner, Aspen Vaughn, in February.

“It’s hard to own a company and go through everything that we’ve gone through,” Lopez said. “We were so close to making it, and then this whole thing happened.”

On Feb. 25, 23-year-old Mahomes allegedly shoved a 19-year-old waiter, whose dad called police. But before staff told Mahomes to leave the restaurant and police arrived, he asked to meet with Vaughn privately in her office to discuss something.

“And out of nowhere, he just grabbed me by the neck and like forcefully kissed me,” Vaughn said in an earlier interview with The Star, “and then proceeded to do it two more times, where the last time I was pushing him off.”

Police seized surveillance video of the encounter, which Vaughn also gave to The Star, and began to build a case against Mahomes. Vaughn said she and her lawyer reached out to The Star to tell her story to prevent a cover-up.

Mahomes is the brother of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

In March, Jackson Mahomes’ attorney, Brandan Davies, provided the following statement: “Jackson has done nothing wrong. Our investigation has revealed substantial evidence refuting the claims of Jackson’s accuser including the statements of several witnesses.”

After sharing her story, Vaughn said she endured death threats and harassment, even vandalism to her restaurant.

In a July interview, Vaughn said business at Aspens was down 75%. She believes someone cut the connections to her restaurant’s central air conditioning unit, damaged the natural gas lines and pulled a fire alarm inside, causing water damage.

“I feel like definitely, since it’s occurred, my safety is definitely at risk,” she told The Star. “I’m feeling attacked by people I’ve never met. Why do victims not come forward? It’s because this is how they get treated.”

Now, Lopez said Vaughn is ready to move on from the restaurant. Vaughn took over the former Llwelyn’s Pub in 2021 and opened Dior Restaurant with her then-husband before getting sued by luxury brand Christian Dior Couture for trademark infringement, according to documents filed in federal court. Vaughn rebranded the restaurant in 2022.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

Bill Barnwell looks at the flaw that could keep the Browns from winning the Super Bowl:

Cleveland Browns

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 0.5%

The Browns’ flaw: Turnovers

The Joe Flacco renaissance in Cleveland has felt like a fever dream. The Browns have won four straight to clinch a playoff spot. Despite starting last Thursday’s game against the Jets without his top running back, top wide receiver, top left tackle and top two right tackles — before losing his second-best wide receiver during the game to a concussion — Flacco picked apart the vaunted New York defense for 309 yards and three passing scores. He finished with a 121.2 passer rating. It was just the second time Flacco had posted a passer rating north of 120 in a start since that famous Super Bowl victory over the 49ers during the 2012 postseason.

Flacco’s run is even more remarkable when you consider that he and the Browns have been able to overcome his longtime bugaboo: turnovers. The Browns have turned the ball over 12 times over their past five games, with Flacco responsible for nine of those giveaways. Two of those turnovers have resulted in pick-sixes, including one for Jermaine Johnson in Week 17. The Browns have turned the ball over three times in three of their four games during this win streak.

The Browns have been able to overcome those woes, in part, by forcing plenty of turnovers themselves. Jim Schwartz’s defense has 11 takeaways over that five-game stretch, including a pick-six from Ronnie Hickman against the Jets. Those drives have produced short fields for the offense; the Browns have started a league-high 11 possessions on the opposite side of the field over the past five games, leading to three touchdowns and five field goals.

As long as you force a lot of turnovers, no need to worry about throwing a couple to the opposing team, right? I’m not so sure. The quality of quarterback play tends to improve during the postseason, which makes it tougher for defenses to rely on forcing takeaways to catch up. Over the past five years, 11.5% of regular-season drives end in turnovers. That mark drops to 9.8% during the postseason.

So if you do have a quarterback who turns the ball over, it’s tougher to overcome those issues in the playoffs, because you can’t be as confident that the guy on the other side of the field is also going to turn the ball over more often. From 2012 to 2022, teams that turned it over two times in a game in the regular season still won 38.2% of the time. Teams that turned the ball over three times managed to win 23.5% of their contests. Yet in the postseason, those figures drop. Teams with two turnovers in a playoff game have only won 31.7% of their contests, and teams with three turnovers went 4-19, winning 17.4%.

The Browns don’t have a spectacular turnover rate this season; they had 16 takeaways across their first 12 games before adding 11 more over the past four contests. They’ve been the league’s best defense this season, and that matters as we head into the postseason, but we can’t expect them to force two or three takeaways per game throughout a four-game playoff slate. And if they can’t overcome the plays where Flacco makes mistakes, the league’s most entertaining and unexpected return may be short-lived.

Team to avoid: Houston Texans. The Texans have turned the ball over on just 7.8% of their possessions this season, the second-lowest rate in football. The Browns did force two takeaways and get out to a big lead against the Texans in a comfortable victory two weeks ago, but that was with Case Keenum at quarterback for Houston. C.J. Stroud returned to the lineup for Sunday’s blowout win over the Titans and would be back in the mix if the Texans win the division and face the Browns in a wild-card matchup.

PITTSBURGH

Crazy:

@_MLFootball

INSANE: Throughout Mike Tomlin’s tenure with the #Steelers, 17 years totalling 274 games, he only coached in one game in which Pittsburgh was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

This reminds the DB of this stat:

Over the years, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has racked up a long list of incredible statistics, unbreakable records, and iconic milestones.

This one might just take the cake, though.

According to sports researcher Tucker Boynton, the GOAT played his entire 23-year NFL career without taking a single snap at which time his team was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Yep, that’s 15,906 snaps (including playoffs), all of which taking place when Brady knew he had a chance to win a Super Bowl.

That is not true of Brady’s longtime coach Bill Belichick.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

EDGE JOSH ALLEN responded when the Jaguars declined his fifth year option.  Joel Corry, a former agent, writing at CBSSports.com on the payday he has earned:

Josh Allen, OLB, Jaguars

Financial benchmark: T.J. Watt ($28,002,750 avg./$80 million in guarantees/4 years)

Probability: $$

Allen is playing under a $10.892 million fifth-year option this season because the Jaguars didn’t make an effort to extend his contract during the offseason. He has responded with a franchise-record 16.5 sacks, which is third in the NFL. His 93 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits) are the league’s sixth-most, according to Pro Football Focus.

Allen’s salary floor should be the four-year, $98 million extension, averaging $24 million per year, Montez Sweat signed with the Bears in November. Sweat’s deal has $72,865,360 in guarantees, of which $41,965,360 was fully guaranteed at signing.

A franchise tag seems likely if a long-term deal isn’t reached before the 15-day designation period ends on March 5. The 2024 linebacker number projects to $22.794 million if the salary cap is set at $242.5 million.

TENNESSEE

Over the weekend, Michael Lombardi dropped a tweet that said that Coach Mike Vrabel has become a coaching free agent (despite reports of an extension earlier) and wanted out of Nashville.  Then, Lombardi said “oops” on the end of the contract.

Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com reports Vrabel says everything is fine with the Titans:

The Patriots could be in the market for a new head coach after this season, and Titans coach Mike Vrabel is in the Patriots Hall of Fame after spending eight of his 14 NFL seasons with them. Naturally, social media has connected those facts.

That, combined with questions about the fit between Vrabel and General Manager Ran Carthon, have led to speculation about whether Sunday will be Vrabel’s final game with the Titans.

Vrabel, though, made clear Wednesday his intent to stay with the team in 2024.

“Of course I want to be here,” Vrabel said, via Teresa Walker of the Associated Press. “Be here as long as we can win, as long as we can do this thing, and it’s been great. But it also has been just this year. And nobody wants to be where we’re at.”

Vrabel won NFL coach of the year honors in 2021, but the Titans were 7-10 last season and are 5-11 this season. He is 55-48 since the Titans hired him before the 2018 season, and the team signed him to a contract extension after the 2021 season.

Vrabel said he has not addressed chatter about his future with his team.

“If we believed everything that was on social media, it’d be Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny and there’s no tooth fairy, you know that,” Vrabel said. “So I really have never responded to any of those, and we’re not going to start now.

“I know where we’re at as an organization, and I’m excited to build this thing and fix this thing and get it to where we want it to be, to win championships with Ran and [assistant G.M.] Chad [Brinker] and the coaching staff and everybody. That’s what our goal is. But, no, the social media and where that is, I can’t focus on that.”

The Titans will have a top-eight draft pick in April and are projected to have the second-most cap space in the offseason.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Bills fans are thinking of Monday night as a warm weather home game.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bills Mafia is taking its crowd noise to South Beach.

Bills fans have swarmed the secondary ticket market this week for tickets to Sunday night’s Bills-Dolphins game in Miami, after last week’s results guaranteed that the game would determine the AFC East champion. So many Bills fans have bought tickets to the Dolphins home game, in fact, that the ticket reseller VividSeats.com told WKBW in Buffalo that it estimates that 52 percent of the crowd in Miami will be Bills fans.

Nick Giammusso, who runs Buffalo ticket agency VIPTIX, told the Buffalo News that he’s seen a huge increase this week in how much Bills fans are willing to pay to go to the game.

“It is a hot ticket,” said Giammusso. “There’s a lot at stake. It’s been moved to the prime-time game Sunday night, so the NFL obviously thinks that way too.”

Russell Salvatore, a restaurant owner who hosts an event for Bills fans every year before the team’s game at Miami, said this year he has far more requests than he has space to accommodate.

“Had I known of the great response, I would have rented the Miami Convention Center,” Salvatore wrote on Facebook. “It kills me to have to say no to people.”

The Dolphins’ offense may need to practice silent counts this week. Bills fans will be loud.

It will be everything the Orange Bowl used to be.

MIAMI

WR TYREEK HILL literally left Dolphins practice Wednesday like a house afire.  Calllie Lawson-Freeman of YahooSports.com:

Tyreek Hill, wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins, left practice Wednesday amid reports that a fire was raging at his home.

The 29-year-old was informed that his family is safe before he exited the facility, according to NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe.

Davie Fire Rescue Department shared a statement about the urgent matter when it was ongoing, describing it as a large residential structure fire that required multiple units from Davie, Southwest Ranches and Broward Sheriff’s Office. No injuries were reported. There will be an investigation into the cause of the fire, which is still unknown.

The Dolphins practice at Baptist Health Training Complex, which is about 12 miles from Hill’s neighborhood. Emergency personnel attempted to extinguish the fire for more than 30 minutes before the wideout arrived, according to WSVN 7 News.

The local outlet live-streamed a broadcast of Hill’s residence in Southwest Ranches, a suburban town in Broward County. Hill, in a walking boot on his left foot due to a lingering ankle injury, made it home around 3 p.m. EST.

Hill was seen greeting his wife, Keeta Vaccaro, who was waiting outside with two children as firefighters entered the home looking for remaining hotspots. Vaccaro carried a backpack as she and Hill walked up and down their driveway, assessing the damage to their residence. WSVN’s aerial broadcast showed smoke coming through a large hole in their roof.

Hill’s agent Drew Rosenhaus addressed reporters outside of the residence once the NFL star and his family left the scene. Rosenhaus said the damage from the fire was limited to one room, expressing gratitude on the family’s behalf.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said he didn’t learn about the fire after until after Wednesday’s practice.

“I think that would be difficult for, not just my teammates, but for anyone in general to be going through what Tyreek is going through right now,” Tagovailoa said. “I think the main thing is his family is safe. His loved ones are good. He’s good as well. I know it’s a little cliché to say, but those things like that — part of the house, some of those things can be replaceable. I’m just glad that a lot of his family members are safe.”

Hill joined the Dolphins in March 2022 via a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs. He purchased the mansion for $6.9 million that offseason, shortly after he signed a four-year, $120 million contract extension to stay in Miami. The deal made him the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL, based on average annual value.

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets say that QB ZACH WILSON remains in the concussion protocol and will not dress Sunday in Foxborough.  QB TREVOR SIEMIAN again gets the call.

Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com says Coach Robert Saleh believes this is far from the end of the career line for Wilson:

That drops the curtain on Wilson’s third NFL season and it would seem to drop the curtain on Wilson’s run with the Jets. The third overall pick of the 2021 draft has gotten several extended opportunities to start and none of them have gone well enough to make a compelling pitch about a bright future for Wilson in the NFL.

Head coach Robert Saleh still tried his best on Wednesday, though. Saleh said at his press conference that Wilson is going to have a “long career” and he was then asked if that future will come with the Jets.

“We’ll see, it’s all things that we’re going to have to talk about once the season’s over, but whether it’s here or somewhere else, I believe he’s going to have a hell of a year or career,” Saleh said.

The Jets plan to have Aaron Rodgers back in 2024 and their 2023 experience would seem to make it vital to have a better backup option on hand, but we’ll have to wait for the offseason to see if the team has learned that lesson.

THIS AND THAT

PRO BOWL PICKS

Can this be true – QB BROCK PURDY is the first San Francisco QB to be chosen for the Pro Bowl in two decades plus says the AP:

Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa were selected to their first Pro Bowl Wednesday as the starting quarterbacks for their respective conferences.

Purdy is the first 49ers quarterback to be named to the Pro Bowl since Jeff Garcia in 2002.

Tagovailoa is the first Dolphins quarterback to be named to the Pro Bowl since Dan Marino in 1995, ending the longest active drought in the NFL, per ESPN Stats & Information research.

It’s the first time the two starting quarterbacks are first-time picks since the 1999 season when Pro Football Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner were chosen.

Purdy was one of nine players picked from the San Francisco 49ers (12-4), who clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed. He was joined by edge rusher Nick Bosa, defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, tight end George Kittle, running back Christian McCaffrey, cornerback Charvarius Ward, linebacker Fred Warner and tackle Trent Williams.

The 49ers (13-3) had the most players selected. Baltimore (13-3) and Dallas (11-5) each have seven Pro Bowl players.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson, safety Kyle Hamilton, center Tyler Linderbaum, defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, linebackers Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith and kicker Justin Tucker were picked from the Ravens, who secured the AFC’s No. 1.

Quarterback Dak Prescott, punter Bryan Anger, kicker Brandon Aubrey, cornerback DaRon Bland, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, guard Zack Martin and edge rusher Micah Parsons were selected from the Cowboys, who can clinch the NFC East title with a win on Sunday.

Other NFC first-year selections besides Purdy include Rams rookie receiver Puka Nacua, Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, Eagles running back D’Andre Swift, Rams running back Kyren Williams, Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, Bears edge Montez Sweat, Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson, Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon, Falcons safety Jessie Bates III, Seahawks safety Julian Love, Ward, Bland, Aubrey, Saints return specialist Rashid Shaheed and Lions special teamer Jalen Reeves-Maybin.

Other AFC first-year selections besides Tagovailoa include Browns tight end David Njoku, Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert, Bills running back James Cook, Dolphins fullback Alec Ingold, Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum, Madubuike, Queen, Hamilton, Broncos return specialist Marvin Mims Jr., Steelers special teamer Miles Killebrew and Jaguars long snapper Ross Matiscik.

Patrick Mahomes is the AFC’s third quarterback while Matthew Stafford is the NFC’s third signal-caller. Trent Williams is heading to his 11th Pro Bowl, most among the players chosen. Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald was picked for a 10th time. Martin, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner are nine-time Pro Bowl picks. Juszczyk and Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill are going for the eighth time.

Twenty-eight teams had at least one player selected and 21 clubs had multiple players chosen.

Player selections were determined by the consensus votes of fans, players and coaches, with each group’s vote counting as one-third toward deciding final rosters. The NFL is the only sports league that combines voting by fans, coaches and players to determine its all-star teams.

The Pro Bowl will be held on Feb. 4 and it is returning to Orlando, Florida, for the first time in three years. This will be the second year for the Pro Bowl Games featuring a multiday AFC versus NFC competition that includes Pro Bowl Skills and culminating in a flag football game. Peyton and Eli Manning will again serve as the coaches.

Ari Meirov has the four teams not represented:

Ari Meirov

@MySportsUpdate

Teams with no Pro Bowlers:

– Green Bay Packers

– New England Patriots

– Washington Commanders

– Carolina Panthers

BROADCAST NEWS

Pat McAfee is caught in the middle of an off-hand remark by QB AARON RODGERS on his show that enflamed fellow Disney employee Jimmy Kimmel.  Mike Florio:

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t done much on the football field this season. This week, he’s done plenty off it.

Rodgers’s suggestion that ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel is on the Jeffrey Epstein client list has opened a “big can of worms” for ESPN, reports FrontOfficeSports.com. The item cites an unnamed ESPN source.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Pat McAfee apologized for the show’s role in Rodgers’s remarks about Kimmel. Rodgers has remained silent. He’ll presumably address the situation next Tuesday, when he next appears on McAfee’s show. However, if Rodgers feels compelled to apologize, he could post something on X, whenever he wants.

Apart from the potential liability Rodgers has incurred by linking Kimmel to Epstein, Rodgers’s remarks could prompt Disney to tell ESPN to ban Rodgers from McAfee’s show.

“Rodgers has a deal with McAfee’s show that would be tough to void,” the unnamed ESPN source toldFrontOfficeSports.com. “Both Rodgers and McAfee don’t care about repercussions.”

McAfee, based on his comments from Wednesday, definitely cares about repercussions. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have apologized for something he didn’t even say.

The only remaining question is whether Rodgers will apologize and, if not, whether that will increase the heat on ESPN to sever ties with Rodgers. Even if Rodgers apologizes, it remains to be seen whether Kimmel will accept it and move on.

We note that Kimmel has taken numerous shots at Rodgers, usually for Rodgers not taking shots. Kimmel is a fierce advocate of mandatory vaccines.

MIKE SANDO’S HONORS BALLOT

Mike Sando of The Athletic lets us peak at his likely AP honors ballot:

As the voting deadline approaches, I’ll share where I’m leaning in eight categories, with insight into some of the tougher questions to resolve:

• Most Valuable Player: What to do in the absence of worthy candidates?

• Coach of the Year: DeMeco Ryans, Kevin Stefanski or Sean McVay?

• Assistant Coach of the Year: With two defensive coordinators from the same division in play, I lean toward the one whose defense solved superior offenses.

• Comeback Player of the Year: Can it be anyone else?

• Offensive Player of the Year: The non-quarterback MVP award?

• Defensive Player of the Year: The best player on the best defense has a couple of the best highlights.

• Offensive Rookie of the Year: C.J. Stroud has serious competition.

• Defensive Rookie of the Year: A third-round pick from Wake Forest crashes the party.

MVP

How I’m leaning: Lamar Jackson, with some reservations. Some other quarterbacks — Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, even Jordan Love — deserve mention for keeping their teams competitive without anywhere close to the support Jackson gets from his defense/special teams. That support is a leading reason Baltimore owns the NFL’s best record. Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy are also in this conversation.

Jackson is the leading passer and rusher for the NFL’s sixth-ranked offense by EPA per play. He was already the top game-plan consideration for every Ravens opponent even before injuries sidelined All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews and two running backs, J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell. Jackson has 11 touchdown passes with one interception in four starts against division-leading teams this season, games Baltimore won by 24.8 points on average.

With the AFC’s top seed at stake Sunday, Jackson completed 18 of 21 passes for 321 yards with five touchdowns and the highest possible passer rating (158.3) to lead a 56-19 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Jackson became the first player since himself during his 2019 MVP season to toss five or more touchdown passes with three or fewer incompletions, per Pro Football Reference.

There is no runaway choice for MVP in a season when most top-tier quarterbacks are injured (Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert), offensive production is down and non-quarterbacks are not breaking records.

NFL MVP odds: Time to crown Lamar Jackson once again

Jackson’s full-season EPA ranks only 11th among quarterbacks, which will be a deal breaker for those committed to measuring value with the flair of an accountant. Purdy would be the choice off of production, except we’ve seen the 49ers’ scheme and weaponry produce at high levels when Jimmy Garoppolo was the quarterback as well. Purdy’s four-interception game against Baltimore in Week 16 came at the wrong time for his candidacy.

The way Jackson has closed out the season against San Francisco and Miami, combined with his role in the Ravens’ offensive success without Andrews, has me leaning toward Jackson. I’ll take the season’s final week to think it through, with an eye on what the Bills’ Allen does in Week 18.

Coach of the Year

How I’m leaning: The Houston Texans’ DeMeco Ryans sits atop my ballot, with the Cleveland Browns’ Kevin Stefanski and the Los Angeles Rams’ Sean McVay close behind. My midseason picks, in order, were the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel, the Detroit Lions’ Dan Campbell and the Ravens’ John Harbaugh. The Indianapolis Colts’ Shane Steichen has a strong case as well. There’s no shortage of viable candidates.

Ryans has the Texans at 9-7 and on the verge of a playoff berth after entering the season with a rookie quarterback and a first-time offensive coordinator. He took over a franchise that had the NFL’s worst record (11-38-1) over the previous three seasons. No team faced longer Super Bowl odds than Houston entering the season.

A counterargument would point to Houston making its most significant gains on offense, which could mean quarterback C.J. Stroud and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik deserve more credit for the turnaround.

But if we apply that reasoning to the defensive-minded Ryans, we need to do the same for Stefanski, an offensive-minded coach whose defense has carried the Browns to 11-5. Cleveland, with four starting quarterbacks, has produced positive EPA on offense just three times this season, including once after Week 10.

The idea that Joe Flacco is playing well enhances Stefanski’s credentials, although Flacco might simply be playing well relative to other Cleveland quarterbacks. He ranks 29th in EPA per pass play among 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season. The Browns’ Deshaun Watson (39th), P.J. Walker (45th) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (48th) rank lower. Unlike those other three, Flacco could be trending upward.

I wish we could watch the playoffs before voting on Coach of the Year. These stories remain in progress.

For a first-time defensive-minded coach such as Ryans to immediately stabilize a wobbly franchise without a veteran quarterback or veteran offensive coordinator separates him. But if Stefanski gets the Browns’ offense going better with Flacco and makes a playoff run, I’d like a chance to push him to the top.

McVay should not be overlooked. He stands out for getting the most out of so many young players while fielding the NFL’s seventh-ranked offense by EPA per play. The Rams scored seven offensive touchdowns while producing 20.8 EPA across Week 13-14 games against Cleveland and Baltimore, who possess the top two defenses in the league.

What would the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan have to do to win this award? He gets outsized credit for Purdy’s success. Shouldn’t that show up here? He has possibly risen to the level where he competes against his own standard. Bill Belichick and Andy Reid have been on that level for years — seen annually as the best coaches, but rarely honored for their efforts in any one season.

Assistant Coach of the Year

How I’m leaning: No betting odds exist for this one, but there are plenty of strong candidates. Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald holds a slight edge over Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in my thinking now.

The Texans’ Slowik, Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Las Vegas Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham and Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen also figure into the discussion.

I’ve gone back and forth in my mind between Macdonald and Schwartz.

Cleveland’s defense has outperformed Baltimore’s statistically while covering for a bottom-five offense, but the Ravens have fared better against higher-ranked offenses.

Both teams dominated San Francisco’s offense similarly. Baltimore’s defense dominated against Detroit and Miami, whom the Browns did not play. The Ravens also dominated Seattle’s offense, which ranks 10th in EPA per play; Cleveland couldn’t stop the Seahawks from driving to the winning touchdown late in the game. The Ravens’ defense was 26.4 EPA better than the Browns’ defense against Seattle alone.

Comeback Player of the Year

How I’m leaning: Damar Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills is the easy choice.

The debate surrounding this loosely defined award centers around how much to emphasize what hardship the player overcame versus how well the player performed after coming back from the hardship. In Hamlin’s case, returning to the field in any capacity after enduring cardiac arrest and the great potential for imminent death separates him from all other candidates. He has played 111 total snaps, including 93 on special teams.

Offensive Player of the Year

How I’m leaning: The 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey is a solid choice here if the MVP goes to a quarterback, which it has for the past 10 years. McCaffrey leads the league in rushing by 315 yards and accounts for a league-leading 30.4 percent of his team’s scrimmage yards with 2,023.

My midseason choice, Tyreek Hill, was on pace to break the single-season record for receiving yardage until suffering an ankle injury three games ago.

Defensive Player of the Year

How I’m leaning: The Browns’ Myles Garrett was my choice at midseason, and I’m sticking with him now. He’s the best player on the best statistical defense, with some of the best highlight plays for defensive linemen. Jumping over the Indianapolis Colts’ line to block a field-goal try in a tie game was one. Drawing the Tennessee Titans into a delay penalty by running back and forth across the formation while offensive players shadowed him was something I can’t recall seeing previously.

The Raiders’ Maxx Crosby stands out for playing 200 additional snaps on 95 percent playing time, compared to 81 percent for Garrett.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

How I’m leaning: This felt like Stroud’s award to lose at one point, and oddsmakers still consider him a heavy favorite. I’m considering Rams receiver Puka Nacua, who ranks fifth in receiving yardage, after Stroud missed two games to injury. But if Stroud finishes strong against the Colts in Week 18, he’ll be hard to push down the ballot.

Nacua has 14 receptions for 282 yards over the past two games, helping the Rams clinch a playoff berth. He has played 89 percent of the snaps without missing a game. His 101 receptions for 1,445 yards and five touchdowns have added 120.6 EPA, third behind Hill and CeeDee Lamb. That is elite production for anyone, let alone for a rookie fifth-round pick from BYU.`

Defensive Rookie of the Year

How I’m leaning for Defensive Rookie of the Year: Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner tops my list with nine sacks and 45 pressures on 625 snaps for a defense that is outperforming preseason expectations by a wide margin.

Turner has more snaps, sacks and splash plays (sacks, tackles for loss, passes defensed/batted, stops on third/fourth downs, etc.) than the Eagles’ Jalen Carter or the Texans’ Will Anderson. Carter’s candidacy suffers from the Eagles’ defensive struggles. Anderson is a close second to Turner in my mind. He has a chance to finish strong in a big game against the Colts in Week 18.