NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com has the Bears at #16 in his preseason rankings – and he wouldn’t be surprised if they went higher.

The excitement for the Chicago Bears is about more than just the arrival of Caleb Williams, though we’ll get to him shortly.

The Bears were pretty good late last season. They started 2-7 and it seemed the only reason Matt Eberflus would survive the rest of the year is the Bears seem weirdly nostalgic about the fact that they’ve never fired a head coach during a season. But the Bears got hot after that and they saved Eberflus’ job in the process. Nobody seemed to pay enough attention to how good the Bears were down the stretch.

The Bears went 5-3 in the second half and the only losses were on the road to playoff teams: at the Lions, at the Browns and at the Packers. All three losses were competitive. The Bears led the Lions and Browns with less than four minutes remaining in each of those games. They lost a competitive 17-9 game to a Packers team playing for a playoff spot in Week 18. At the end of the 2022 season the Lions won a Week 18 game at Green Bay in a similar situation and went into the offseason with a ton of buzz. The Bears’ buzz would have been louder, maybe equal to the 2023 Lions, had they beaten the Packers in the finale. As is, there’s still plenty of excitement for what’s to come in Chicago. The Bears got three prime-time games, a standalone game in London and a matchup against the Lions on Thanksgiving. They’ll be the featured team on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” during training camp.

There wasn’t a lot of hope in Chicago before the second half of last season. It was a slow rebuild with three straight seasons of double-digit losses. Suddenly there was reason for optimism. And one of the best trades in the NFL in many years continued to pay off big.

The focus of a big Panthers-Bears trade a year ago is how badly Carolina botched it. The Bears traded the first overall pick to Carolina, who selected Bryce Young. Maybe we should focus more on the Bears side of it, because it was a heist. We reviewed what the Panthers gave up in the trade in their preview, but here’s what the Bears got:

• No. 9 overall draft pick in 2023, which Chicago moved for the No. 10 pick of the draft (offensive tackle Darnell Wright) and 2024 fourth-round pick (punter Tory Taylor)

• WR DJ Moore, whose 1,364 receiving yards were fourth most in team history for a single season

• 2023 second-round pick that the Bears used to move up to get CB Tyrique Stevenson, who started 16 games as a rookie

• 2024 first-round pick, which was No. 1 overall and used on Williams

• 2025 second-round pick

It’s not outrageous to wonder if we’ll look back at that trade in a few years and compare it to the Herschel Walker trade, which is famous for helping to start the Cowboys’ dynasty.

The Bears have tried and tried to find a quarterback. Justin Fields had his moments, but the fact that no team was willing to trade the Bears more than a sixth-round pick for him is telling. In the end, the decision to move on from Fields and draft Williams was an easy one. Williams is a Heisman Trophy winner and considered an elite prospect. Even if Fields develops with the Pittsburgh Steelers, changing course right before a decision had to be made on Fields’ second contract was the obvious move.

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Unlike some other quarterbacks who go No. 1 overall, Williams lands in a good situation. The Bears finished last season on the upswing. They stole Moore in that Panthers trade, then traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze ninth overall. The Bears went from one of the worst receiver rooms in the NFL to potentially the best in two offseasons. The line, due in part to drafting Wright, is improving though there is still some work to do. The running game will be helped by free agent addition D’Andre Swift. This isn’t David Carr getting sacked 76 times as a rookie or Bryce Young flailing around on a terrible 2023 Panthers team. Williams might not thrive as a rookie because playing quarterback in the NFL is really hard, but he’s not set up to fail like other rookie QBs.

It’s easy to take that finish last season for the Bears and dream about how much better it will be with Williams, Allen, Odunze, Swift and others. Maybe the defense won’t match the offense, Eberflus isn’t as good as he was in the second half last season, Williams isn’t a huge hit right away or anything else that can derail a season for a team that lost 10 games a year ago. But there is a different energy about the Bears, particularly at quarterback, than there has been in a long time.

Offseason grade

The Bears had the second-best collection of grades from the NFL Draft, behind the Steelers, and it’s fairly ridiculous they weren’t No. 1. The Steelers drafting some offensive linemen is really better than landing Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze in the same draft? Stop it. Williams was a pretty clear No. 1 overall pick, even in a stacked quarterback class. The Bears should thank the Falcons for using the No. 8 pick on Michael Penix Jr., because that was a reason Odunze fell to No. 9. Chicago couldn’t have banked on a receiver prospect like Odunze falling to them, but adding the Washington star to a receiver group with Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore is exciting.

Yahoo Sports’ Matt Harmon said: “Ultimately, I ended up slotting Marvin Harrison Jr. as the class’s top wide receiver, but that came after a long internal debate between him and Rome Odunze.”

He’s that good. So was the Bears’ draft. The third-round pick of Yale offensive tackle Kiran Amegadjie could be a strong one too if Amegadjie heals after surgery on a partially torn quad muscle. The second-round pick was used during last season to land pass rusher Montez Sweat in a trade, and while that isn’t officially counted in this grade, it was an impactful addition. In free agency, the Bears added running back D’Andre Swift, safety Kevin Byard, tight end Gerald Everett and safety Jonathan Owens. They also acquired Allen for a fourth-round pick in a trade with the Chargers. Chicago ended up signing top cornerback Jaylon Johnson to a four-year, $76 million extension after some angst between Johnson and the team as he sought a new deal. The Bears might have paid too much for Swift (three years, $24 million), but they had the cap room to splurge.

The Bears did lose receiver Darnell Mooney and cut offensive lineman Cody Whitehair and safety Eddie Jackson, but they should overcome those losses. Getting just a sixth-round pick for Justin Fields in a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers was disappointing after the Bears misread the market on Fields, but that doesn’t dampen a great offseason.

Grade: A

Quarterback report

Nobody should be compared to Patrick Mahomes. That’s especially true for a rookie who has never thrown an NFL pass. But when you watch Caleb Williams’ most outlandish highlights, the only other time you see similar plays is on Sundays from the guy in the No. 15 Chiefs jersey.

Williams’ ability to extend plays and make ridiculous throws off platform is rare. The knock on Williams became that he might not be able to operate within structure, but Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice shot down that notion:

“This creativity is also the aspect of Williams’ game that leads people to overlook his other attributes and the overall soundness of his game. The thing with Williams, and really the lesson that people have been missing with any lofty comparison to Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers, is that Williams is a strong operator from within the structure of the offense. When Williams is comfortable with the concept and actually given time to be a quarterback, you get to see his arm creativity, polished footwork and the consistent rhythm in which he operates.”

Big-time prospects do fail. There are too many variables associated with playing quarterback in the NFL to have a sure thing. But there’s no clear fatal flaw with Williams’ game. Chicago, you should finally have your franchise quarterback.

BetMGM odds breakdown

The Bears have famously never had a 4,000-yard passing season. They have also never had a quarterback win a major award. Not an MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year or even Comeback Player of the Year. Caleb Williams can change that. He’s a huge favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, with +125 odds at BetMGM. As of late April, 41.6% of the money bet on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year was on Williams.

There are also some very optimistic Williams bettors, as Williams is BetMGM’s biggest liability in the MVP market. He has 80-to-1 odds. There are plenty of bettors who aren’t sold on the Bears as a team, however. The team that has gotten the most bets to miss the playoffs at BetMGM is Chicago. The Bears are -125 odds to make the playoffs and +105 to miss the postseason. The Bears have a win total of 8.5.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Keenan Allen didn’t show much slippage in his age-31 season, with efficiency metrics that were right around his career averages. But the Chargers forced the ball to Allen constantly — he commanded 11.5 targets per game — and it’s unlikely the Bears will give him similar volume.

“Chicago’s passing game has plenty of talent, but there’s also a crowding issue. DJ Moore is coming off a breakthrough year, setting career bests for catches, yards and touchdowns. Cole Kmet has been a top-10 fantasy tight end for two straight years, and rookie wideout Rome Odunze was the ninth overall pick in the draft. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is the winner in all this, as he’s stepping into an unusually deep offense for a player drafted first overall. Who Williams clicks with the quickest is anyone’s guess.

“And keep in mind the Bears don’t need Williams to immediately carry the team, given how well the Chicago defense played in the second half of last year. Perhaps the initial offensive game plans will err on the conservative side. Allen’s ADP is in a reasonable pocket through early Yahoo drafts (WR30), but given his age and change of address, he’s not someone I’ll be selecting proactively.”

Stat to remember

It’s hard for a midseason addition to transform a defense, but the Bears changed after trading for defensive end Montez Sweat. Bears coach Matt Eberflus took to calling it the “Tez effect.” From the moment the Bears traded for Sweat to the end of the season, they improved from 28th to 20th in points allowed, 23rd to 12th in yards allowed and from 22nd to fifth in takeaways, via the Chicago Sun-Times. The Bears allowed 27.3 points in the eight games before the trade for Sweat and 17.9 in the nine games after it. Chicago had 10 sacks without Sweat (five of them came in one game against Washington) and 20 after he arrived. Sweat wasn’t exactly prime Reggie White, with 25 tackles and six sacks in nine games, but the Bears benefited from having a legit pass rusher on the defense.

The Bears got a great season from cornerback Jaylon Johnson, linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds played well, and safety Jaquan Brisker continues to develop. But Sweat, who signed a four-year, $98 million deal after he was acquired by Chicago, is the new centerpiece of the defense. The Bears still lack a good pass rusher on the line opposite Sweat, but it’s not like the Bears’ rebuild is complete. Getting a running mate for Sweat will be one of the next projects. But as the Bears saw right away, having one top pass rusher like Sweat can make a big difference.

Burning question

How will the Bears’ skill positions shake out?

A couple of years ago, the Bears had hardly any skill-position talent. Now there’s the problem of having only one football to share among all their stars.

At running back, the Bears already had two interesting young players in Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert. Then they spent $24 million over three years on D’Andre Swift right away in free agency. It was an overpay, but the Bears had the cap space to do it. Swift had a good season with the Eagles, rushing for 1,049 yards with a 4.6-yard average. He is also capable as a receiver. The Bears didn’t pay Swift to sit behind Johnson or Herbert, but Swift has issues with inconsistency. That’s a reason the Lions gave up on him. Then last season with Philadelphia, Swift rushed for 305 yards in the second and third games of the season and didn’t rush for 100 yards in a game after that. Based on the money Swift got from the Bears, he should be the clear RB1 even with two talented backups. His challenge will be putting a full season together.

The Bears have a crowd at receiver. D.J. Moore was one of the NFL’s best receivers last season. Keenan Allen had 108 catches for 1,243 yards in just 13 games for the Chargers. Rome Odunze became a top-10 pick with a 1,640-yard final season at Washington. And on top of that, the Bears have two capable tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Moore is the likely target leader, but Allen should get plenty too even if he falls well short of 100 catches. Odunze has top-end talent but presumably will be the clear third option in the passing game, at least right away. These are good problems for Chicago to have.

Best-case scenario

C.J. Stroud and the impact he made on the Houston Texans as a rookie is rare, but Caleb Williams was a more hyped prospect than Stroud was. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Williams had a rookie season like Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Stroud or a few others who hit the ground sprinting. In 2012, Luck threw for 4,374 yards and 23 touchdowns as a rookie after being the first overall pick and the Colts made the playoffs. Williams could do that too, especially with the cast he has around him. It’s even easier to imagine the Bears having that kind of a season if the defense maintains its level from the second half of last season after it added Montez Sweat. The Lions look very good, the Packers are formidable as well, but don’t discount Chicago’s chances of winning the division. The Bears led the Lions 26-14 with three minutes remaining in Week 11 last season and if they had just held that lead — Detroit scored the game-winner with 29 seconds left — they’d have swept a Detroit team everyone believes can win the Super Bowl this season. Sometimes teams we think are still in their rebuilding phase come along fast.

Nightmare scenario

Nobody has a great reason to predict Caleb Williams will be a bust, but it happens. Until you see a player do it on an NFL field there is no sure thing, even for an elite prospect like Williams. It’s also worth wondering how Williams will mesh with the Bears, many of whom were fully supportive of Justin Fields returning to the team in 2024. There was also plenty of pre-draft noise about Williams, including him perhaps not wanting to play for Chicago, that has been forgotten. Even if Williams doesn’t have a terrible rookie season, maybe we’re a little too high on a team that lost 10 games last season. They were 2-7 to start last season for a reason. There are still holes on the offensive line and defense, and are we positive Matt Eberflus is the right coach for the job? Plenty of teams and rookies don’t live up to offseason hype. It would be a pretty big letdown if there’s another double-digit loss season for Chicago and devastating if Williams is just another in a long, long line of disappointing Bears quarterbacks.

The crystal ball says …

If the Bears didn’t have the first overall pick of the NFL Draft and they ran it back with Justin Fields, they’d still be a fun pick to make the playoffs. Chicago was one of the NFL’s best non-playoff teams in the second half of last season. Caleb Williams should be an upgrade over Fields. It’s not the cleanest comparison, but a team probably would have given the Bears more for Williams than they got in the monster Bryce Young trade, and all Fields fetched was a sixth-round pick. Williams will be pretty good right away, the Bears will find a way into the playoffs and they can start dreaming of a future that includes them being Super Bowl contenders for a while.

DETROIT

WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN had amazing production in 2023, especially considering the ailments he played with.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had 119 catches for 1,515 yards in 2023 and he put up those big numbers despite some injury issues.

St. Brown is one of the players involved in the Receiver series on Netflix and he recounts a couple of injuries that he had to deal with early in the campaign. St. Brown hurt his toe during the team’s Week Two loss to the Seahawks, but was well enough to play against the Falcons the next week. He had nine catches for 102 yards in a Detroit win, but picked up an oblique injury to go with his toe problem.

“I’ve had a hip pointer before, so I thought it was a hip pointer,” St. Brown said. “Maybe it’s just a little bruise. And I’m like, ‘Damn, my toe’s still hurting at this point. Now I have this oblique injury.’”

The Lions played the Packers on a Thursday night in Week Five and St. Brown, who said he was at an eight or nine on 1-10 scale of pain, was on the field again.

“It’s too late for me not to play. The game plan’s in,” St. Brown said. “Painkillers is something that I really don’t like to take unless it’s the Packers.”

St. Brown caught a touchdown — and got doused with a beer by a Packers fan — in the 34-20 Lions win and then got an MRI. He said doctors told him “you tore your oblique completely off the bone,” which led to St. Brown missing Week Six. He returned with 25 catches in his next two games and didn’t miss any more time, which is the kind of durability and grit that helped him earn a sizable contract extension this offseason.

More on St. Brown and his star turn on “Receiver” from Colton Pouncy of The Athletic:

Last summer, after an offseason throwing session in their home state of California, Lions QB Jared Goff had to tell someone what he was witnessing in real time. Months before anyone else would.

He picked up his phone and fired off a text to his offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson. Those two share a brain when it comes to knowledge of this Lions offense and what it looks like on Sundays in the fall. The message was simple. Just four words total. But it spoke volumes, ultimately foreshadowing what was in store for his star wide receiver.

“St. Brown,” the text read, “Huge year.”

That’s St. Brown — as in Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. If you know the name, it’s because he’s worked his whole life to ensure you do. Come Wednesday, that name and the story behind it will be on display to millions, as Netflix’s new docuseries “Receiver” — going behind the scenes with some of the biggest names the position has to offer — is set to premiere.

They couldn’t have picked a better time to chronicle the year that was for St. Brown.

“We pick guys that have slightly different stories to do the show on, so he was more of the underdog guy out of all of the guys on the show — and then ends up having the best season out of all of the guys on the show,” said Shannon Furman, an Emmy-winning producer and director at NFL Films who worked on “Receiver” and closely followed St. Brown last season. “It feels like you scripted it, but you didn’t, you know?”

Furman was familiar with the California native and USC product’s background from her time working on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” series, which followed the Lions ahead of the 2022 season. Back then, St. Brown was new to the game, coming off a year in which he broke franchise records for yards and receptions by a rookie. He would follow that up with 106 receptions and 1,161 yards as a sophomore, en route to his first Pro Bowl appearance. He has the eighth-most receiving yards and the third-most receptions in NFL history through a player’s first three seasons.

A creature of habit and consistency, respected by teammates and coaches alike, it’s no accident St. Brown is here.

“The things that he does every day in practice and every game show up all the time,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell said of St. Brown in January. “That’s what a pro is and it’s why he’s a pro. You can write down everything that he’s going to do, and he’ll do it. I can bank on everything — his whole routine that he goes through every day of the week to prepare, what it’s going to look like in pregame, what it’s going to look like in the game, what it’s going to look like postgame, what he’s going to do on his day off. It’s the same thing and there’s nothing easy about what he does. But, for him, it’s routine and it’s why he’s a great player.”

St. Brown over the years has blossomed into one of the NFL’s household names among receivers, but that’s not the only reason he was asked to be featured on the show. Netflix and NFL Films were looking for players with compelling stories and personalities. St. Brown just so happens to have both.

He has supreme confidence in his game, a product of an upbringing fostered by his father, John Brown. Brown is a bodybuilder and two-time Mr. Universe recipient who molded his three sons into Power 5 football players, sent two to the NFL and added “St.” to their last names because he thought it would look good on a jersey. St. Brown is petty and remembers everything, famously reciting all 16 receivers selected before him in the 2021 NFL Draft like a party trick. He’s entertaining, plotting out potential touchdown celebrations and dances each week. He has a close-knit family, recording “The St. Brown Bros.” podcast with his brother Equanimeous and hosting relatives at his townhome on gamedays.

Even better was the fact that his team — a Detroit Lions franchise known for its losing ways — was on the cusp of figuring things out. But most importantly, St. Brown was willing to give the crew behind “Receiver” the necessary access to his life.

He was the total package, which is why he was worth pounding the table for when potential subjects were discussed.

“I believed in him just from what I saw on ‘Hard Knocks,’” Furman said . “When it came time to find characters for the show and you’re talking about different players, obviously I was pushing for him hard. It was awesome to just see everything that you thought could potentially happen actually unfold. Maybe be even better than what you thought.”

What unfolded was a season to remember for St. Brown and the Lions. Expectations were high in 2023 after the team won eight of its final 10 games in 2022. That kind of momentum doesn’t always translate from one season to the next, but it did for these Lions. Detroit went 12-5 in 2023, going wire-to-wire in the NFC North. At 23 years old, St. Brown was voted a team captain and emerged as a league-wide star on a team that ended several droughts. First division title in 30 years. First playoff win in 32 years. Most wins in season in franchise history (playoffs included).

As it turns out, Goff’s text to Johnson wasn’t hyperbole. St. Brown would finish with 119 receptions, 1,515 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, earning a trip to his second Pro Bowl and first-team All-Pro honors for the first time. Through it all, he was engaging on and off camera. And while the season didn’t end with a fairy-tale finish — instead, a crushing 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game — St. Brown stuck around the locker room to answer every question that came his way, setting the tone for 2024 in the process.

“I think that feeling that we all had walking off of that field, I don’t think any one of us want to feel that again if we can,” St. Brown said after the game. “I think the feeling that we have is enough to motivate us for next year. We had a good year as a whole, but it’s all for nothing if you don’t win the whole thing. Everyone’s goal to start the year is to win the Super Bowl and if you don’t, you kind of fail the season. Whether you lose here in the NFC Championship or don’t make the playoffs, it’s all the same.”

That’s the sort of compelling content that should resonate with viewers watching “Receiver.” Furman said the show, which also features Davante Adams of the Raiders, Justin Jefferson of the Vikings and Deebo Samuel and George Kittle of the 49ers, had so much content it was hard to fit all of it into an eight-episode arc. For Jefferson, the show will highlight the injuries he had to overcome amid a difficult season. For Adams, the turmoil of a coaching change. For Kittle and Samuel, a peek at the psyche of a team that can’t get over the hump.

It can all make for strong television in varying ways, but when a subject and season come together the way it did for St. Brown and the Lions, it’s almost too perfect.

“They’ve just been so welcoming to us,” Furman said of the Lions organization. “They trust us, they trust me and the crew that I work with. … We’re not supposed to be fans and everything, but it’s hard not to become a fan when you’ve been around a team like that. You root for good people, and it feels like that’s what the Lions organization is right now — it’s a lot of good people who are just working really hard to try and do this for the city, and all of that feels so genuine. It’s been really fun to be part of it.”

The most fitting end to the year that was for St. Brown came a few months ago. It was the morning of April 25, the opening day of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit. St. Brown, making the rounds in Detroit on behalf of the team, remembers getting a call from his agent, Joby Branion of Vanguard Sports. The two would have conversations every week or two in the offseason about the status of an extension — all but a formality for a player as important as St. Brown is to the Lions, but still worth having.

Finally, the phone call that would end those talks arrived.

“I think we got a deal done,” Branion told St. Brown.

The Lions signed St. Brown to a four-year, $120 million contract extension with a whopping $77 million guaranteed — making him one of the NFL’s highest-paid receivers. The news ultimately broke when he was in his car, alone. In the moments that followed, he called his father, John, and talked about how far they’d come. He spoke to one of his best friends — a conversation that nearly led to tears (St. Brown claims he fought them off). There was also a celebration outside the team facility in Allen Park, Mich., featuring silly string and champagne, orchestrated by Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond.

But after that, it was business as usual. You wouldn’t expect anything else.

“It says a lot to be extended,” Lions GM Brad Holmes said. “It speaks to the locker room and who you pay, who you draft, who you extend. I kind of saw the clip of our other wide receivers celebrating St. Brown outside in front of the facility, and I just think that’s really cool because I just think he’s highly respected and I think no one would argue that he’s truly earned that.”

St. Brown knows he’s no longer viewed as the undersized fourth-rounder out of USC. The national respect for his game has grown immensely in such a short time. He knows he’s here for a reason. The work ethic, the no-nonsense approach to training, the confidence, the consistency — they were all traits the Lions coveted as they revamped their roster and scoured for building blocks.

At the same time, though, he also knows the pressures that come with a contract of this caliber.

“People are going to be looking at me and saying, ‘He makes this much money? What is he doing?’” St. Brown told reporters the day after his contract extension was finalized. “There are going to be even more eyes on me, and that’s the pressure I like to feel. I want to put it on myself. I love any expectation people have of me. I’ve always got to do more.”

What St. Brown has accomplished already is more than many have done in their careers. He’s done it all without being the biggest, the fastest, the most explosive. But he’s not wrong. Those eyes are coming — quite literally, with the premiere of “Receiver.” But he’s not running from it.

Instead, St. Brown is giving anyone interested a peek behind the curtain. The hope is that a national audience will see why he’s worth every penny.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com says there is a decent chance that QB DAK PRESCOTT is a free agent at the end of the season:

Dak Prescott will sign with a different team next spring

As we approach the start of training camp, Prescott and the Cowboys have not been able to reach agreement on a contract extension. Dallas’ star quarterback has one year left on his contract, which includes a no-trade clause and a rule that prevents the team from using the franchise or transition tags to keep him off the free agent market. Prescott will carry a 2024 salary cap hit of just over $55 million, and if the Cowboys don’t re-sign him before the start of the 2025 league year in March, he would cost them just over $40 million in dead cap charges for 2025.

The team is in a tough spot, as Prescott’s contract situation gives him all the leverage here. And he doesn’t have to do a deal with the Cowboys unless it’s exactly the deal he wants. That’s why the possibility of Prescott hitting the market as an unrestricted free agent quarterback — and cashing in with a deal likely to exceed $60 million per year — is not far-fetched.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

To be clear, this is NOT what I am predicting. I still think the most likely outcome here is that Prescott and the Cowboys find a way to get a deal done before he becomes a free agent. Heck, they could even get one done before the start of this season for all we know. But if they don’t finalize something before or during the season, I think it would be a massive mistake to rule out this possibility.

A partial list of teams that could be looking for new starting quarterbacks next spring includes the Raiders, Giants, Jets, Saints, Steelers, Titans, Rams and Seahawks. There would absolutely be a market for Prescott — who led the NFL in touchdown passes in 2023 with 36 — if he is available. By that time, he and his agent surely would know who’s interested and at what level. The Cowboys do not want it to come to that. But again, it’s not entirely up to them.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants believe that DC Wink Martindale was holding them back last year, or at least that’s the implication from LB BOBBY OKEREKE.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Giants changed defensive coordinators this offseason and the move from Wink Martindale to Shane Bowen was not a minor one.

Martindale’s attacking scheme is very different from the one Bowen employed with the Titans, which is something linebacker Bobby Okereke noted when asked about the shift during a Wednesday appearance on Up & Adams. Okereke said there is a night and day difference in the approach of the two men and that he thinks Bowen’s style is going to produce very positive results during the 2024 season.

“It’s almost about as 180 of a flip as it can be,” Okereke said. “Going from Wink — I loved that system, attacking, blitzing all the time — to Shane, very methodical, probably one of the most cerebral defensive coordinators I’ve ever been around. Just the way he sees the game, the way he’s gonna call it, the way he coaches it, the attention to detail. Yeah, I think we’re gonna dominate this year, and it’s gonna be led by him.”

The Giants took a step backward on both sides of the ball in 2023. Okereke and Bowen won’t be able to do much for the offense, but that unit’s turnaround won’t have to be quite as drastic if the defense comes together as Okereke believes it will.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

The Buccaneers have not had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2015.  RB RACHAAD WHITE was 10 yards short last year.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Doug Martin rushed for 1,402 yards for the Buccaneers in 2015. Since then, the Bucs have had five different players lead them in rushing with none of them clearing 1,000 yards.

Rachaad White came the closest, rushing for 990 yards last season.

White, who rushed for 1,006 yards while at Arizona State in 2021, is ready to do what hasn’t been done in Tampa since Martin.

“Obviously, my goal is to do whatever I can to help the team win,” White said on The Rich Eisen Show on Tuesday. “We’ve been last or [near the bottom in rushing yards] the past five or six years. I mean, even with the Super Bowl. When it comes to rushing, Tampa Bay has been down bad. My goal, and what I expect me to do, is turn that around, and that’s to be top-10 to top-15, top-12, at the minimum. Obviously, there’s not been a 1,000-yard rusher here in, like, what, nine years, and obviously, I was 10 yards short of that last year. So, I’m going to make sure I’m not . . . short of that this year and go well over that 1,000 yards.”

White also caught 64 passes for 549 yards and three touchdowns last season. He could be used even more in the passing game this season.

“The scrimmage yards are just going to speak for themselves just because I’ve always been good catching the ball and running routes out of the backfield,” White said. “I’ve got a lot of guys with a lot of speed obviously on the outside, and what they do speaks for [itself]. A bunch of them dumpoffs, I’m out in space, and I’m taking myself over a lot of defenders any day of the week.”

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

TE GEORGE KITTLE with a message of hope for 49ers fans who see the posturing of WR BRANDON AIYUK.  Paul Kasabian of Bleacher Report has an update on the situation:

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle believes that wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk will remain with the team this season despite his current contract dispute and trade rumors.

“I’m not concerned about it,” Kittle told the NFL Network’s Rich Eisen on his show (25-minute mark). “Aiyuk’s a phenomenal football player who’s a big part of our offense, and he’s one of the most complete receivers I’ve ever played with, so I’m going to assume that he’s going to be on our team by the time the season starts.”

Eisen first asked Kittle what he would tell fans who ask whether Aiyuk is going to be in San Francisco this year, leading to the answer.

For further context, Kittle noted that other 49ers stars have gotten their big deals done later in the offseason. Kittle’s $75 million deal was reported on Aug. 13, 2020. Deebo Samuel’s three-year deal worth up to $73.5 million was reported on July 31, 2022. And Nick Bosa and the 49ers agreed to a five-year, $170 million extension on Sept. 6, 2023.

The 49ers are still two weeks out from even starting training camp on July 23, so there’s still a lot time to get something done relative even to those deals.

Kittle also made a point to note that he doesn’t have any particular insight on the Aiyuk matter, even saying that he goes out of his way to avoids conversations with players amid contract negotiations so he can avoid giving any answers about those situations to others.

Aiyuk had 75 catches for 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last year en route to second team All-Pro honors. Thanks much to his efforts, the 49ers won the NFC title. He’s entering the final season of a rookie contract paying him $14.1 million in 2024, and he’s frankly deserving of a lucrative, long-term deal.

That hasn’t happened yet for the 26-year-old, and it doesn’t look like the two sides are making much progress.

Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reported that recent conversations have not led to them being closer to a contract. However, a trade request isn’t on the table either.

“For Aiyuk and the 49ers, they had conversations recently,” Garafolo said on July 2. “They are no closer to a deal, from my understanding, but they are also no closer to a trade request. That’s never been something that he has explored in this case.”

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated also spoke with Eisen on the matter (21-minute mark) and said that he believes the 49ers not only see Aiyuk as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver but that something will get done.

On the flip side, Aiyuk seems enamored with the Commanders, a team led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, a close friend of his and an ex-Arizona State teammate. This image notably raised eyebrows.

Aiyuk also showed up to an appearance on The Pivot Podcast with Daniels. And during that podcast, Aiyuk listed the Commanders as a team he could envision himself playing with in 2024 alongside the Pittsburgh Steelers.

“If I were to take a guess, probably a Niner uniform,” Aiyuk said in an appearance on The Pivot Podcast (45:45 mark) regarding where he saw himself in 2024. “Probably a Niner uniform. I mean, if not a Niner uniform, probably a Washington Commander uniform. If not a Washington Commander uniform, probably a Steelers uniform.”

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

Cleveland hero Bernie Kosar has some severe health issues.  Jack Baer ofYahooSports.com:

Bernie Kosar, considered by many to be the best Cleveland Browns quarterback of the Super Bowl era, is facing significant health issues, he revealed to Cleveland Magazine.

The 60-year-old former Pro Bowler has reportedly been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease and is suffering from liver failure enough that he will likely require a liver transplant. Specifically, a member of his medical team said there is more than a 90% chance he will need a new liver.

Kosar reportedly said he has been dealing with health issues connected to his liver for years, but ignored the pain until he was diagnosed with cirrhosis 16 months ago. He recalled to Cleveland Magazine watching a Browns game against the New York Jets on Dec. 28 when his symptoms became particularly bad, leading to his hospitalization:

“My body gave out on me,’’ he says. “I really felt like I wasn’t going to make it home from the Jets game. I sucked it up, though, and continued to avoid the doctors until the new year. Then I went into the hospital and got a massive blood transfusion. It was like: ‘How are you alive? How are you moving? Because your hemoglobin levels are so low.’’’

He reportedly became seriously ill again when traveling to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, leading to a hospital stay of several days after his flight.

According to a doctor, the cause of Kosar’s liver failure has not been determined. His liver reportedly contains “an incredibly high level of an organic solvent, higher than we’ve seen literally in anyone.’’

From Cleveland Magazine, Dr. Michael Roizen of the Cleveland Clinic said:

“This compound doesn’t live in humans for 24 hours. But it’s lived in him for probably 10 years, and we don’t know why.’’

Kosar remains beloved in Cleveland, having starred for nine seasons with the Browns. He led them to the playoffs in five straight seasons, a franchise record in the Super Bowl era, and he remains close to the top of the franchise leaderboard in nearly every meaningful passing statistic.

He also boasts a Super Bowl ring from his time as a backup on the Dallas Cowboys in 1994 and a champion in the college ranks with Miami in 1983.

PITTSBURGH

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com is skeptical that the long term QB solution is currently on the Steelers roster:

The Steelers will be in the QB market again next spring

With the Kenny Pickett experiment having failed, the Steelers signed free agent veteran Russell Wilson and traded for deposed Bears quarterback Justin Fields this offseason. Those two will battle it out to see who starts for Pittsburgh this season, but neither is signed beyond this season, and the Steelers didn’t need to commit significant resources to acquire either of them.

Wilson — who threw 26 touchdown passes in 2023 but also averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt — is playing on a minimum salary deal because he still has $39 million in guaranteed money left over from his Broncos contract. And Fields — who tied Wilson’s 6.9 yards per attempt last season but also rushed for 657 yards — only cost the Steelers a sixth-round pick that could convert to a fourth-rounder if Fields plays enough snaps in 2024.

The expectation is that the combination of Wilson and Fields will be an upgrade over what the Steelers had at quarterback last season, and the hope is that at least one of them plays well enough to merit a look as the long-term starter in Pittsburgh.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

While these are exciting, recognizable names and the Steelers are coming off a year in which they used Pickett and Mason Rudolph at quarterback, there remains the non-zero chance that neither Wilson nor Fields plays well. Wilson is coming off two miserable campaigns in Denver, and Fields is a still-developing prospect who didn’t advance enough in his first three seasons to convince the Bears not to draft Caleb Williams to replace him. And as shown by what the Steelers paid to acquire Wilson and Fields, Pittsburgh wasn’t exactly fighting off half the league for the two QBs’ services.

The Steelers have never had a losing record under coach Mike Tomlin, which means they’ve never really selected high enough to find a true franchise quarterback in the draft. That means they have to find creative solutions in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. But the two potential solutions they found this offseason are unquestionably imperfect ones, so don’t be at all surprised if they find themselves in the same situation next spring.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars are miffed that they stumbled down the stretch in 2023. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jaguars’ 2023 season was a tale of two seasons. They began the campaign 8-3 and a contender for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Jacksonville finished 1-5 and out of the postseason as the Texans won the AFC South.

“It’s going to burn for a long time until we get to meaningful games again and start playing in September,” Jaguars coach Doug Pederson told NFL Media on Wednesday. “But I think that’s the same fuel and the motivating factor for our players that the way we ended is not us and no matter what you go through as a football team, everybody goes through adversity. There’s always going to be injuries, but you can’t make excuses. You’ve got to go play football. So for us, we got to learn from that, roll up our sleeves during training camp, work hard and just play it one game at a time.”

Now, after last season’s meltdown, Pederson is under pressure to win now.

The Jaguars improved their roster this offseason, signing receiver Gabe Davis and defensive lineman Arik Armstead and drafting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. They signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence and edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen to long-term extensions.

“Well, I think that’s what we saw in Gabe Davis in Buffalo what he did, how he could kind of stretch the field,” Pederson said of the Jacksonville’s offseason. “He was a big, tall receiver that could go over the middle, he was physical and could block. I would say that’s a piece that we missed a little bit last year. Zay [Jones] was a little beat up. We missed Christian [Braswell] at the end of the season. We get Christian [Kirk] back healthy. We lost Calvin Ridley, but now we get Gabe and Brian and Brian’s got the speed element that we probably lost with Calvin.”

The Jaguars have made the playoffs only twice the past 16 years, but they have the team to do it again this season.

– – –

EDGE JOSH ALLEN is no more.  Meet EDGE JOSH HINES-ALLEN.  Frank Schwab ofYahooSports.com:

There won’t be any confusion anymore about which Josh Allen everyone is talking about in NFL circles, though that wasn’t the Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end’s goal.

Allen, an elite pass rusher who shared the same name as the Buffalo Bills star quarterback, is changing his name. He said he will go by Josh Hines-Allen, which honors his family. That will be the name on the back of his jersey going forward, as Hines-Allen displayed in a video discussing the name change.

Adding Hines is a nod to the maternal side of Hines-Allen’s family. Hines-Allen comes from an athletic family that includes his sister, Myisha Hines-Allen, a forward for the WNBA’s Washington Mystics. Two other sisters, Kyra and LaTorri, played college basketball under the Hines-Allen name. His uncle Gregory Hines was a star at Hampton University in the 1980s and was drafted by the NBA’s Golden State Warriors.

“It was almost destined for me to follow in their footsteps,” Hines-Allen said in his video.

Allen had the misfortune of sharing the same name as the Bills’ star, but he made a reputation for himself as a great player. He was the seventh pick of the 2019 NFL Draft by the Jaguars, made a Pro Bowl as a rookie and then last season he had 17.5 sacks and made the Pro Bowl again. In the offseason he signed a five-year contract worth more than $141 million.

Allen has been a key player for the Jaguars for five seasons and there’s the matter of Jacksonville fans owning a now outdated jersey. The Jaguars said Hines-Allen will host a jersey exchange in Jacksonville in September for those who own the old Allen jerseys.

THIS AND THAT

2025 DRAFT

Jordan Reid of ESPN.com sees 13 candidates for the first overall pick next spring:

It’s never too soon to look ahead to next year’s NFL draft. Which prospects are the early candidates to be the No. 1 pick in 2025?

Caleb Williams was the consensus favorite last summer to be selected at the top of the draft in 2024, and nothing changed throughout the process; the Bears took the talented passer at No. 1 in April. But 2025 looks vastly different. There isn’t an overwhelming top-pick favorite among the signal-callers, and this group of defensive prospects is loaded at the top. In fact, it sort of reminds of the 2022 class when the top five picks were all defense. Quarterback has dominated the top of the draft, but defensive end (5) and offensive tackle (2) have also produced No. 1 selections over the past 25 classes.

Even though we’re more than nine months out from the draft, let’s take a run through the most likely candidates to go No. 1, including why each could make the leap and a way-too-early projected percentage chance for each to land at the top of the board. Let’s start with the QB that I had going No. 1 in my way-too-early mock draft from May.

SERIOUS CONTENDERS

Carson Beck, QB, Georgia

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 20%

Why he could be the top pick: Beck is the most common name mentioned at the top of this class of signal-callers, but there are still some questions that he needs to answer heading into his second season as a full-time starter.

Beck finished last season with 3,941 passing yards, 24 touchdown throws and 6 interceptions. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he’s a linear-built passer who wastes little time getting the ball out of his hand. His average of 2.38 seconds before the throw tied for the nation’s quickest release last season. He also finished with a 72.4% completion rate (fourth-best in FBS) and an 86 Total QBR (fifth), showing really good processing ability. However, Beck doesn’t make a ton of plays outside of structure, and his footwork is still a little inconsistent.

With Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint now in the NFL, Beck will be tasked with taking a significant leap in Year 2 with a lot of new and inexperienced playmakers around him. If Beck can answer the call and put up another big season, he could certainly emerge as QB1 in this class and end up the top pick for a quarterback-needy franchise.

Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%

Why he could be the top pick: Williams enters this season as the No. 1 player on my board for the 2025 draft. Yes, it requires quite a bit of projection, but at 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds, the junior pass-rusher has enormous upside. And while he has nine sacks combined over the past two seasons, the stat sheet doesn’t tell the full story of how valuable he is to the Georgia defense.

Williams played more snaps at defensive tackle (162) than defensive end (148) or outside linebacker (54) in 2023, and he finished with 10 tackles for loss and 23 pressures. He has to be better with finishing plays, but he shows plenty of length and strength at the point of attack. I see the third-year edge rusher as an NFL-ready run-defender, evidenced by eight run stops last season. Williams reminds me of Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick in 2022.

He will transition into a full-time outside linebacker role this season, which should position him for an ascension in what’s considered to be a strong defensive line class. After turning 20 years old a month ago, Williams has the combination of size and movement skills to go early in the draft, but scouts want to see him take the next step as a pass-rusher by expanding his repertoire of moves and creativity with his hands.

James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%

Why he could be the top pick: At 6-foot-5 and 242 pounds, Pearce is an explosive threat off the edge. Last season, he had a 20.2% defensive pressure rate (third in FBS) and picked up 10 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss across 13 games for the Vols. His burst and first-step quickness are hardly ever matched, but his true playing weight and overall consistency against the run at the point of attack are two factors that evaluators will be watching closely next season.

“I thought he had a lot of [Brian] Burns to him when he was coming out of Florida State,” an AFC area scout said this summer while discussing Pearce.

Tennessee hasn’t had a defensive player picked in the first round since 2017 (Derek Barnett). If Pearce can post big production again in 2024, he could be the next one for Tennessee — and he absolutely has a chance to go No. 1. The Volunteers haven’t had a top pick since Peyton Manning in 1998.

Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%

Why he could be the top pick: Sanders will without question be at the top of the list of the most discussed prospects in this class. After dominating the FCS ranks at Jackson State for two seasons, he transitioned to the the FBS last season and finished with 3,230 passing yards, 27 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions at Colorado. Sanders completed 69.3% of his passes in 2023, showing poise and accuracy when protected. And in high-pressure situations, he routinely rose to the occasion.

That said, Sanders and the Colorado offense had plenty of struggles in the second half of the season, as he was sacked an FBS-high 52 times in 2023. There’s plenty of blame to go around there, but he must learn to trust his internal clock and get the ball out on time more consistently. With a new scheme in place under Pat Shurmur, NFL teams will be tracking Sanders’ season closely. He still has plenty of questions to answer about his game and what he could bring in the pros.

Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%

Why he could be the top pick: Ewers came to Texas in 2022 with massive expectations and immediately took the starter reins. But an inconsistent 2023 season leaves him with a murky draft projection.

He closed last season with 3,479 passing yards, 22 touchdown throws and 6 interceptions. He’s an on-time and in-rhythm passer who can be a bit streaky, but he has a good arm and operates Steve Sarkisian’s offense well as a true distributor. We saw Ewers at his best in a crucial road win against Alabama. But on the flip side, the first half of the Oklahoma game exposed his flaws (even though he finished with 19 straight completions). I’d like to see him tighten up his decision-making and mechanics.

We’ve seen Sarkisian develop passers such as Tua Tagovailoa (2020) and Mac Jones (2021) into eventual first-round picks. And Ewers could be next, even pushing for top-pick status if he has a big third season. He will have to adjust to new playmakers around him, though, following the loss of his top four guys in Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jonathon Brooks. (Transfer receiver Isaiah Bond should help.)

I’m hearing primarily late-Day 2 or even early-Day 3 grades from scouts right now, but it’s early. And considering he’s my QB3, he has to be in consideration for the top pick if he can piece together a really good prove-it season. The decision to return to school was the right one for Ewers, and he now gains another year of needed experience and tries to build on his positive moments shown last season.

POTENTIAL RISERS

Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 6%

Why he could be the top pick: Banks has been one of the more consistent linemen in the country. As the starter at left tackle since arriving on campus (1,788 total snaps), he has allowed only two sacks across two seasons.

At 6-foot-4 and 324 pounds, Banks is an overwhelming run-blocker, but it’s his movement skills that really set him apart from his counterparts in this class. His light feet can be a positive or a negative, though; while it allows him to stick on pass-rushers, he too often attempts to out-finess the opposition rather than trusting his technique. That gets him into trouble against more polished edge rushers.

Texas hasn’t had an offensive lineman drafted in the first round since Leonard Davis (2001) and Mike Williams (2002) were drafted in back-to-back years more than two decades ago. Both were top-five picks, but Banks has a chance to go even earlier.

Will Campbell, OT, LSU

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 6%

Why he could be the top pick: Campbell will likely be right alongside Banks in the offensive tackle discussion throughout the pre-draft process. At 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds, he is a bigger prospect, though.

With 26 career starts (1,625 snaps), Campbell has been the starter since arriving in Baton Rouge. Playing strictly as a left tackle, he didn’t allow any sacks last season. He’s a true technician at the position, so there isn’t much flash to his game. Campbell just continuously stacks wins in pass protection, showcasing plenty of physical ability as a run-blocker and completely shutting down his matchups week in and week out.

His length will be a question mark, as longer and more sudden edge rushers (guys such as Jared Verse and Dallas Turner) have given him some issues. But most evaluators I’ve spoken with view him as a tackle in the pros, at least right now.

LONG SHOTS

The ‘out-of-nowhere’ quarterback

Seemingly every season, a quarterback exceeds expectations and takes the college football world by storm to rise up the draft board and challenge for the top pick. Most recently, Anthony Richardson (2023) and Jayden Daniels (2024) fit the bill; both were viewed as Day 3 prospects but developed into top-five picks. Who could be next?

Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (2% chance to go No. 1): One of the more obvious candidates, Leonard is now under the tutelage of Mike Denbrock — who helped transform Daniels into the No. 2 pick while he was at LSU. Leonard has a smooth release and good mobility but an average arm.

Conner Weigman, Texas A&M (2% chance): Another name mentioned by scouts this summer, Weigman has the arm to test throwing windows and push the ball down the field. However, his starter sample size is small, as he has only started eight career games over two seasons.

Cameron Ward, Miami (1% chance): Ward transferred to Miami this year from Washington State, and he shows the creativity to make things happen outside of structure. But while he has a live arm, he has to make better decisions going downfield.

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (1% chance): After serving as Daniels’ backup the past two seasons, Nussmeier takes over the starter gig for LSU. He has good accuracy and touch down the field.

Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 2%

Why he could be the top pick: We’ve never seen a cornerback being selected at the top of the draft (common draft era, since 1967). So yeah, the odds are extremely stacked against Johnson. But if there were a CB who could challenge for that feat, he’d be a strong contender. In 2022, Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner were picked with back-to-back selections at Nos. 3 and 4. Johnson is that caliber of corner prospect.

At 6-foot-2 and 202 pounds, Johnson has fluid hips, great ball skills and the ability to play a variety of different coverages. Last season, he only allowed 14 catches into his coverage (0 TDs) while also adding four interceptions (7 total over two seasons). Plus, few cornerbacks come more battle-tested, as Johnson matched up against Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze in 2023.

“I don’t know if it’s the size, jersey number or what. The kid looks like a direct replica of [Pat] Surtain coming out of Alabama,” an NFC scouting director said. “We’ll see what he runs, but he has all of the tools to be special.”

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 2%

Why he could be the top pick: Two-way players are few and far between in college football. But Hunter makes a profound impact as a cornerback and then turns around and does the same thing as a wide receiver. Chris Gamble (Ohio State) and Champ Bailey (Georgia) are the only other recent comparables to Hunter in that sense. Last season, Hunter became the first FBS player since Bailey to have at least 40 catches on offense and three interceptions on defense.

But is Hunter a WR or a CB in the pros? That will be the biggest question surrounding his projection. He played in at least 100 snaps in seven different games last season, displaying miraculous endurance. But it’s also probably not sustainable in the future. He has an innate feel for finding the ball no matter if he’s on offense or defense. I believe Hunter’s best position is at cornerback, but he will have two separate grades — one at each position — for most teams.

“I freaking love the dude as a prospect,” an AFC national scouting director said. “All he wants to do is impact the game in as many ways as possible and never complains one bit.”