The Daily Briefing Thursday, July 14, 2022

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald may or may not know something about Sean Payton’s intentions.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Sorry, Panthers. You apparently didn’t make the cut, again.

The team that tried (twice) and failed (twice) to get quarterback Deshaun Watson previously was linked to former Saints coach Sean Payton for 2023. The team’s official response was something less than a full-throated denial.

Regardless, Payton widely is believed to be destined to return to coaching in 2023. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, citing an unnamed source close to Payton, lists the Dolphins, Chargers, and Cowboys as teams that could draw Payton’s interest in 2023.

The source added the catch-all “among other teams,” so there may still be hope for the Panthers and other potentially interested teams.

The main factors for Payton are, per Jackson: (1) warm weather; (2) a roster that can contend; and (3) control over personnel decisions.

The Cowboys already are on the short list to pursue Payton, despite the ongoing efforts of owner Jerry Jones to put the kibosh on the subject. (As reported in Playmakers, the Cowboys nearly hired Payton in 2019.)

The other two teams are surprising. Although the source told Jackson that Payton would never lobby for a job that’s already filled, Jason Garrett serve as head coach of the Cowboys when the pieces were put in place behind the scenes for the Cowboys to hire Payton. So even if he wouldn’t “lobby,” he also wouldn’t slam the door in the face of an owner who is interested in hiring him, regardless of whether that owner currently has a coach under contract.

Jackson, given his beat, focuses on the Dolphins. Despite the fact that the story was grossly underreported (in large part because reporters working for ESPN and NFL Network flatly ignored it), the Dolphins’ clandestine pursuit of Payton and quarterback Tom Brady was one of the biggest developments of the offseason. Jackson doesn’t slam the door on the possibility of Dolphins owner Stephen Ross rekindling his interest in Payton, if the team disappoints under first-year coach Mike McDaniel.

If would be awkward to say the least, and it would be expensive. But if Ross wants Brady and if Brady wants Payton, buying out McDaniel’s contract becomes part of the cost of doing business.

And that’s the thing to remember. Brady will be a free agent in 2023. The Payton-Brady partnership could still happen in Miami next year. Frankly, McDaniel doesn’t deserve to be saddled with that speculation before he ever coaches a single game. Anyone who pays any attention to the NFL knows that anything can happen, however.

If not Payton-Brady, it could be Payton-Herbert. Or Payton-Prescott. Wherever Payton goes (and he likely will be coaching somewhere in 2023), he’ll want to be in a place that has a quarterback, because that will be the most important factor in Payton’s effort to become the first coach in league history to win a Super Bowl with two different franchises.

NFC WEST

SEATTLE

The departure of QB RUSSELL WILSON is far from the only change in Seattle’s offense.  Brady Henderson of ESPN.com breaks it down:

– In addition to whomever replaces quarterback Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks’ offense will have a new primary target at tight end, a new No. 2 running back who figures to get plenty of work and, in all likelihood, three new starters on its offensive line.

Indeed, the changes the Seahawks made on that side of the ball this offseason go well beyond quarterback.

But we’ll start there as we take a position-by-position look at Seattle’s offense with a verdict on whether each is better, worse or the same compared to 2021.

Quarterback

Additions: Drew Lock

Losses: Russell Wilson

Returners: Geno Smith, Jacob Eason

Better, worse or the same: Worse

When you go from a likely Hall of Famer to a pair of replacement options who haven’t been able to hold down starting jobs, it isn’t a question of whether you’re going to be worse at quarterback but of how significant the drop-off will be.

After all, Wilson’s career-low 54.7 Total QBR in 2021 is better than what Lock has managed in any of his three NFL seasons. Smith has posted a higher QBR only once in nine seasons (2015).

Which begs two questions: Why didn’t the Seahawks make a stronger run at Baker Mayfield, who was acquired for next to nothing? And could they still go after Jimmy Garoppolo?

The former 49ers starter hasn’t been medically cleared following shoulder surgery and with the start of training camp only two weeks away, he’d have to learn a new offense and build chemistry with a new group of pass-catchers quickly. Also, the Seahawks — even with mediocre defenses in recent seasons — have had his number since his trade to San Francisco. So how big of an upgrade would they consider him to be over their current options?

The Seahawks believe Lock has much more upside than the shaky start to his career suggests and think a different coaching style can help coax better play out of him. But he’ll have to beat out Smith first, and Lock was behind in that race when the offseason program ended.

Running back

Additions: Ken Walker III, Darwin Thompson

Losses: Alex Collins, Adrian Peterson

Returners: Rashaad Penny, *Chris Carson, DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer, Josh Johnson

Better, worse or the same: Better

Carson’s place among the returners comes with an asterisk because while he’s still under contract, he hasn’t been medically cleared following neck surgery. And the fact that it hasn’t happened yet suggests his chances of returning are more doubtful than questionable.

But remember, Carson played in only the first four games last season, so he would hardly count as a loss from 2021. If he returns, he would effectively be an addition.

If not, Penny would be the No. 1 option after his stellar finish to last season. His health is the other big variable in Seattle’s backfield equation, as Penny has missed 30 of a possible 69 career games (including playoffs) due to injury. Whether it’s because Penny misses more time and/or because the Seahawks manage his touches to prevent overwork, Walker should factor heavily into the rotation. ESPN’s Todd McShay rated Walker, a second-round pick, as the best running back in this year’s draft.

Wide receiver

Additions: Marquise Goodwin, Bo Melton, Dareke Young, Deontez Alexander, Kevin Kassis

Losses: None

Returners: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Freddie Swain, Dee Eskridge, Penny Hart, Cody Thompson, Cade Johnson, Aaron Fuller

Better, worse or the same: The same

Barring a Metcalf holdout or trade in the absence of an extension, Seattle will return its top three of Metcalf, Lockett and Swain.

Eskridge is the X factor. Last year’s second-round pick could overtake Swain as the No. 3 and give Seattle’s receiver corps a speedy and versatile option if he’s healthy, but that has been a challenge. A toe injury and a concussion led to a nondescript rookie season. Then he was sidelined for part of this year’s offseason program because of his hamstring, prompting coach Pete Carroll to openly lament about the time Eskridge has missed.

Goodwin, added on a minimum-salary deal, isn’t assured of making the team. Ditto for rookie seventh-rounders Melton and Young.

As for Metcalf’s contract, the Seahawks still sounded optimistic about getting a deal done after the receiver skipped mandatory minicamp. But given where the market has gone, it doesn’t seem like a slam dunk.

Tight end

Additions: Noah Fant, Cade Brewer

Losses: Gerald Everett

Returners: Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Mabry

Better, worse or the same: Better

Fant, part of Seattle’s return package in the Wilson trade, is a clear upgrade over Everett. He and Dissly give the Seahawks their best tight-end duo in years.

There’s a widely-held belief within the organization that tight ends will benefit from the Wilson trade because whichever quarterback starts for Seattle will throw the ball to the short-middle area of the field more than their predecessor did.

Offensive line

Additions: Charles Cross, Abraham Lucas, Austin Blythe, Shamarious Gilmore, Liam Ryan

Losses: Duane Brown, Brandon Shell, Ethan Pocic

Returners: Gabe Jackson, Damien Lewis, Dakoda Shepley, Kyle Fuller, Jake Curhan, Stone Forsythe, Phil Haynes, Greg Eiland

Better, worse or the same: Better

Tough call between “better” and “the same.”

Because while the Seahawks might have solidified the future bookends of their offensive line by drafting Cross with the ninth pick and Lucas at No. 72 overall, there will likely be growing pains as those two transition to the NFL from pass-heavy college schemes in which they didn’t play from a three-point stance.

Then again, the aging Brown and the banged-up Shell were 26th and 27th, respectively, in pass block win rate among tackles last season. So it’s realistic for Seattle to be better in that department.

The Seahawks would be in barely charted territory if Lucas beats out Curhan and Forsythe on the right side to join Cross in the starting lineup. According to ESPN Stats & Information, only two teams since 1970 have started rookie tackles in Week 1.

Blythe, the projected starter at center, has a background with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and O-line coach Andy Dickerson. But it remains to be seen how much of an upgrade, if any, he is over Pocic.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

Apropos of nothing – why didn’t the Browns pursue QB MATT RYAN?

Here’s Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com with his preview:

There’s a reason the Cleveland Browns were placed in the middle of these rankings. It’s impossible to know what to make of them.

When the rankings were finalized, the Deshaun Watson saga hadn’t been settled. With Watson for a full season, the Browns are clearly a top-10 team. Without Watson at all, the Browns would be much lower than No. 15 in the countdown, especially since they couldn’t mend fences with Baker Mayfield. Having Watson for about half of the season would put the Browns … well, about in the middle.

The Browns’ Watson gamble was reckless. Thousands of words have been written on the moral bankruptcy shown by the Browns in trading for a quarterback who had been accused by more than 20 women of sexual misconduct. Those columns are worth your time. In this space, we’ll talk about the football ramifications.

The Browns were blinded by the chance to land one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. They probably figured that it was like most controversial off-field stories (including their own, when they signed Kareem Hunt): Often, those stories burn hot for a couple days and then everyone mostly forgets about it. That happens way more often than it should. But this wasn’t a backup running back. This was the face of the franchise, given a $230 million contract over five years, and his case — in terms of civil suits and also NFL suspension — wasn’t even settled. The Browns saw everyone else bidding for Watson and likely felt FOMO. They probably thought that, at worst, Watson would be suspended half a season, they’d eat the bad PR for however long it lasted, and then they’d have 4.5 years or more with an elite quarterback. A few teams were lining up for the same gamble. The Browns “won” the sweepstakes.

Cleveland banked its reputation, $230 million and a potentially franchise-changing number of draft picks on Watson. Then more accusations came in. It became clear that this wouldn’t be the normal too-short suspension for a player facing some troubling accusations.

The Browns deserve every step back that comes from this gamble. They knew what they were getting into and their hubris in believing it would just blow over prevents much sympathy if Watson gets an unprecedented suspension. Whatever happens in the future, good or bad, is all on the Browns’ decision makers.

From a football sense, you can understand the Browns ignoring everything else — including their own conscience — and being desperate to land a quarterback who is a top-10 talent. Cleveland has been building for a while and has only one playoff win to show for it. Mayfield was supposed to be the answer and showed moments of promise, but he fell out of favor and the Browns basically gave him away to the Carolina Panthers (actually it was worse than just giving him away; Cleveland is paying $10.5 million of his salary this year). There’s a lot to like about the rest of the roster. Nick Chubb is a fantastic running back behind a very good offensive line. Amari Cooper comes over from the Dallas Cowboys as a solid No. 1 receiver. The defense, led by perennial NFL defensive player of the year candidate Myles Garrett, could be one of the best in the NFL.

The Browns, who tore everything down and hoarded salary-cap space and draft picks in hopes of building a title contender, should be entering a fruitful era. But they soured on their quarterback, took an unprecedented gamble on a quarterback who had numerous legal issues and now face an uncertain future.

If the gamble on Watson doesn’t ultimately work out and this rebuilding project stalls as a result, the Browns don’t have anyone to blame but themselves.

OFFSEASON GRADE

The Deshaun Watson situation looms over everything. The final cost: Watson and a 2024 fifth-round pick for three firsts (2022, 2023, 2024), a third (2023), a fourth (2024) and a five-year, $230 million contract that’s guaranteed. That’s a franchise-changing trade, for better or worse. The Browns traded Baker Mayfield to the Panthers, getting only a conditional 2024 fifth-round pick back. They’re paying $10.5 million of Mayfield’s salary this year. Both sides really wanted to be done with each other, Watson’s uncertain future be damned. The Browns swung a couple other trades. They got Amari Cooper from the Cowboys for the low price of a 2022 fifth-round pick and a swap of 2022 sixth-round picks. The Browns traded cornerback Troy Hill to the Los Angeles Rams. They weren’t too active in free agency. The main moves were retaining edge defender Jadeveon Clowney and resigning tight end David Njoku to an expensive four-year, $54.8 million deal. The biggest losses were receiver Jarvis Landry and tight end Austin Hooper. They also signed quarterback Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $4.65 million deal, which was a more important move than anyone knew at the time. It’s hard to put a grade on what the Browns did this offseason because there is a huge range of outcomes in the Watson ordeal.

GRADE: Incomplete

QUARTERBACK REPORT

There’s a chance that Deshaun Watson not playing all last season for the Houston Texans and the very public saga of his legal issues takes something away from his game. When we last saw him, he was one of the elite quarterback talents in the NFL. What seems certain is we’re going to see at least some of Jacoby Brissett as a starter this season. Brissett is either a very good backup or a low-end starter, depending on what role he’s in. He has an 83 career passer rating. He has played for three different teams and none of them posted winning records in his starts. The Browns are good around Brissett and perhaps that pushes him to a career year. Most likely, Brissett will be a below-average starter for as long as he has to fill that role.

ODDS BREAKDOWN

The Browns were favored to win the AFC North at BetMGM when the offseason started, and amid the Deshaun Watson uncertainty they’re third behind the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Cleveland is +300 to win the division. I wouldn’t advise taking that bet. The Browns’ win total is off the board. Ignore this situation until there’s some clarity.

FANTASY REPORT

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “I’ll probably sit out the Amari Cooper fantasy experience this year. Veteran receivers changing teams can be a dicey proposition, and Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the passing game. Cleveland never figured out how to unlock Odell Beckham (not all of that fell on Stefanski’s watch, to be fair), and only one receiver has topped 600 yards receiving since Stefanski took over the Browns. Throw in the uncertainty surrounding Deshaun Watson and I’m especially leery of Cooper, who carries an expectant Yahoo ADP of 60. You can do better in this receiver tier.”

STAT TO REMEMBER

The Browns are a very good running team. They led the NFL with an average of 5.1 yards per carry and did so without a run-heavy quarterback, which usually bumps a team’s rushing stats. Cleveland finished fifth in yards per carry in 2020, coach Kevin Stefanski’s first year with the team. Nick Chubb is one of the most effective runners in the NFL and Kareem Hunt, his backup, is a former NFL rushing champion. No. 3 back D’Ernest Johnson had 534 yards on 100 carries last season, including a 146-yard game against the Denver Broncos when he had to start due to injuries. Johnson would probably rush for 1,000 yards if he was Cleveland’s full-time starter. Depending on the Browns’ passing game, all three top Browns backs could get a huge workload this season. This is a team that wants to use its run game. It might not have much choice this season.

BURNING QUESTION – Will this be Myles Garrett’s defensive player of the year season?

Garrett has been tremendous since the Browns made him the first overall pick in 2017. He has had double-digit sacks each of the past four seasons. He has been first-team All-Pro each of the last two seasons. Last year he had the highest grade of any edge defender at Pro Football Focus. Garrett is far removed from the Mason Rudolph incident that led to a suspension; now he’s just known as an elite player on a Hall of Fame track. Garrett will be a contender for NFL defensive player of the year for many more seasons, but he has yet to win one. He’s the favorite to win it with 6-to-1 odds at BetMGM, and one of these years that ticket will cash.

BEST CASE SCENARIO

The Browns would have to be secretly thrilled with any suspension that’s a half-season or less for Deshaun Watson. Let’s say it’s eight games, because anything less would be surprising (eight games would be light too, but that’s a conversation for a different space). Could the Browns ride their offensive line, run game and defense to a 4-4 record until Watson gets back? Sure. It’s not easy to take over QB duties in midseason with a new team, but Watson is a talented player and Cleveland isn’t a bad situation. Watson is a blue-chip QB, the Browns have a good roster and if they get in the playoffs with Watson available to play, they could make a deep run. But, unlike previous seasons, if that happened very few neutral fans would be rooting for the once-lovable, underdog Browns.

NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

When Charles Robinson and I talked about the potential Watson suspension, we mentioned two previous cases: Trevor Bauer’s two-year suspension from Major League Baseball, and Calvin Ridley’s year-long suspension for betting on NFL games. Bauer is not the same sport but it still is a precedent that will be mentioned often if Watson gets off lightly. And it’s hard to imagine the NFL giving Watson a shorter suspension than Ridley, who placed a few hundred dollars on parlays when he wasn’t even playing. My assumption is Watson won’t play this season but we’ll see. No matter how long Watson is suspended, this is a story that will hang over him and the franchise the rest of his career. The Browns paid $230 million in guaranteed money, traded five valuable picks and have to be regretting it. The Browns also took a big loss to trade Baker Mayfield, and I still think they should have used their leverage and forced him to play or leave his salary on the table. Jacoby Brissett doesn’t strike me as a quarterback that can lead a team to the playoffs. The Browns might find themselves with another losing season, and we don’t even know if Watson’s suspension could last into the 2023 season. Again, Cleveland signed up for this mess so there’s no sympathy. But it is a heck of a mess.

THE CRYSTAL BALL SAYS…

I don’t believe Deshaun Watson plays this season. The NFL is unpredictable with suspensions, and maybe Watson will get off lightly. That uncertainty is why they’re in the middle of these previews. My guess is Watson gets at least a full year, Jacoby Brissett is below average, and the Browns finish with a losing record. That would be a wasted season when the Browns are supposed to be a contender. Then even when Watson returns, assuming he does return for the Browns, they won’t be anyone’s idea of a feel-good story.

32. Houston Texans

31. Atlanta Falcons

30. New York Giants

29. Jacksonville Jaguars

28. Chicago Bears

27. New York Jets

26. Seattle Seahawks

25. Detroit Lions

24. Carolina Panthers

23. Washington Commanders

22. Pittsburgh Steelers

21. Minnesota Vikings

20. Miami Dolphins

19. New Orleans Saints

18. Las Vegas Raiders

17. Arizona Cardinals

16. Tennessee Titans

THIS AND THAT

MVP CALCULATIONS

Bill Barnwell takes a deep dive into the 2022 MVP race.

It should be easy to project who will win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. For the last half-decade, though, identifying the MVP in advance has been a surprisingly difficult task. With the benefit of hindsight, the winners have been easy choices — the races haven’t often been all that close — but none of those players was an obvious choice before the season in which they won.

In 2017, Tom Brady won his third award, but it took a torn ACL in the left knee of second-year quarterback Carson Wentz to clear a path for Brady. Wentz was coming off a rookie season in which he looked, well, like a rookie. Patrick Mahomes had one career start before his stunning 2018 MVP campaign. Lamar Jackson had supposedly been figured out by the Chargers in the playoffs before dominating the league the following season, winning MVP unanimously.

The last two years might have been even more wild in their own way. Aaron Rodgers’ numbers had been declining toward league-average over a three-year span before he dropped 48 touchdown passes on the league in 2020. Then, in a world in which voters almost always prefer to reward breakout stars and players posting career years at the expense of steady greatness, Rodgers won the award again last season.

While the players who won are all quarterbacks, we’re left with a lot to evaluate. Pick the second-year breakout quarterback, or pick the wily veteran who has been left for dead by his own team. Go back a little further and you’ll find the good player who broke out unexpectedly in a Kyle Shanahan offense, and the running back who came off a torn ACL. Oh, and Tom Brady. Pick him, too.

Let’s run through the kinds of MVP seasons we’ve seen from the past, and try to identify a comparable player who could have that sort of year in 2022. I’ll work my way backward, starting in 2021 and hitting 13 different seasons, including the past six:

The candidate: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

The MVP season comp: Rodgers in 2021

The story in 2021: Rodgers was unstoppable, even when the Packers didn’t get him the help everyone expected.

Well, this one is obvious. In the 2020 draft, the Packers passed on a wide receiver to take quarterback Jordan Love and running back AJ Dillon with their first two picks. Rodgers won MVP. In 2021, the Packers passed again on adding a significant wide receiver to play alongside Davante Adams. Rodgers still took home the hardware for the fourth time in his career.

Now, of course, Adams is off to Las Vegas, while deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling followed the AFC West train to Kansas City. The Packers made a few modest additions — Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs — but they have on paper one of the least imposing receiving corps in the league. It seems like there’s no way Rodgers has enough around him to win what would be his third consecutive MVP, something only Green Bay predecessor Brett Favre was able to accomplish. (Favre split one of those awards, in 1997, with Barry Sanders.)

It’s foolish to count out Rodgers after his last two campaigns. He gets back two key players from seasons mostly lost to injury in left tackle David Bakhtiari and tight end Robert Tonyan. His only game with a perfect passer rating — a five-touchdown masterpiece against the Raiders in 2019 — came with Adams sidelined by injury. Rodgers would have a better shot at MVP No. 5 with a more imposing top wideout than Allen Lazard, but who’s really going to say the 38-year-old legend can’t do it again?

The candidate: Matt Ryan, QB, Indianapolis Colts

The MVP season comp: Aaron Rodgers in 2020

The story in 2020: A fading former MVP threw back the years with a vintage season out of his prime.

Since winning MVP during the 2016 season, Ryan’s Total QBR has either declined or stayed stagnant in each of the subsequent five seasons. The “stagnant” season saw him improve narrowly from 59.6 to 59.8 between 2019 and 2020. Ryan was all the way down at 46.1 a year ago, good enough for 21st in the league. He ranked 21st in DVOA and 18th in yards per attempt, passer rating, net yards per attempt and adjusted net yards per attempt. He wasn’t the problem with the Falcons, but Ryan wasn’t able to keep them afloat, either.

Now, of course, things are different. Ryan was traded to Indianapolis, where the Colts can protect him on the interior and rely on heavy doses of running back Jonathan Taylor. Ryan moves from what had been one of the toughest divisions (NFC South) to arguably its weakest (AFC South), and he still gets the benefit of playing in a dome.

Rodgers made his leap back into the elite class during his age-37 season. Can Ryan do the same in his?

The candidate: Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

The MVP season comp: Lamar Jackson in 2019

The story in 2019: A dual-threat quarterback responded to a disappointing playoff debut by blowing away expectations.

After Jackson and an exciting Ravens offense were limited to 3 points in the first 54 minutes of a sloppy playoff loss to the Chargers, the naysayers came out in droves. Jackson was a gimmick quarterback, they said. The Chargers had the formula for stopping Baltimore’s run-heavy attack, and every other defense would have all offseason to watch the tape of that game. He might have gotten off to a 6-1 start and revitalized what had been a moribund Ravens offense with Joe Flacco during the regular season, but the league would quickly bottle him up.

Oops. Jackson’s offense was even better the following season, as he threw 36 touchdown passes and racked up more than 1,200 yards on the ground. With Baltimore adding playmakers in Mark Ingram and Marquise Brown, the Ravens rode their offense to a 14-2 record, while Jackson won MVP.

Hurts is in his third season, but after trading time with Carson Wentz as a rookie, 2022 will be Hurts’ second year as his team’s unquestioned starter. The Eagles thrived after building the offense around his rushing ability in midseason, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play after Week 7. The Bucs then dealt them a harsh reality check in the postseason. Philadelphia was shut out through three quarters of what ended up as a 31-15 defeat in the NFC wild-card round.

Now, Hurts get to prove whether he can follow Jackson in hitting new heights. He’ll have more help after the Eagles used one of their first-round picks to trade for A.J. Brown, netting Hurts one of the league’s most physically imposing wideouts. They will have all offseason to refine their offense around Hurts’ talents and build a more robust version of what they transitioned toward in midseason. If the skeptics are right, Hurts probably will get replaced by a new quarterback next offseason. If they’re wrong and Hurts wins MVP, he probably will get $100 million in guarantees on a contract extension.

The candidate: Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

The MVP season comp: Patrick Mahomes in 2018

The story in 2018: A prototypical modern quarterback took a redshirt year under an offensive genius before turning into a human highlight reel.

You probably saw this one coming. Mahomes, the No. 10 overall pick, started just one game during his rookie season, taking the reigns for a meaningless Week 17 matchup with the Broncos. He otherwise sat behind Alex Smith for a Chiefs team that featured devastating offensive weapons and legendary playcaller Andy Reid around a solid veteran quarterback. In Year 2, he threw 50 touchdown passes.

Enter Lance, who started two games as an injury replacement for Jimmy Garoppolo last season after being the No. 3 overall pick in the draft. Garoppolo’s future remains uncertain, but Lance is expected to step in as the full-time starter in 2022 after spending a year in Kyle Shanahan’s laboratory. He’ll have George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and the league’s fourth-best rushing offense by DVOA to help the transition.

Mahomes threw for 896 yards and 13 touchdowns across his first three games in 2018 and never looked back. Lance is a different sort of player, but would it really be a surprise if he took the league by storm?

The candidate: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The MVP season comp: Brady in 2017

The story in 2017: The greatest player in NFL history continued to play at an extremely high level and none of the other candidates made it to the end of the year with strong cases.

Brady was excellent in 2017, but his season wasn’t extraordinary by his standards. He was actually better by most measures in 2016, but as a result of his four-game Deflategate suspension at the beginning of the season, he wasn’t really an MVP candidate that season. The then-Patriots starter led the league in passing yards in 2017, but he threw for more yards in 2015 and averaged more yards per game in 2016. Just ho-hum greatness.

For voting purposes, though, nobody else stood out in 2017. Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz, who had been the favorite, tore the ACL in his left knee in Week 14 and missed the remainder of the season. Kansas City’s Alex Smith led the league in passer rating. Russell Wilson led in passing touchdowns but played for a 9-7 Seahawks team that missed the playoffs. Todd Gurley looked like a candidate after leading the league in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns, but the Rams held him out in Week 17, which hurt his chances.

Brady has continued to play excellent football, so if the rest of the league isn’t able to serve up a new contender, the 44-year-old could absolutely win his fourth MVP.

The candidate: Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

The MVP season comp: Matt Ryan in 2016

The story in 2016: A good veteran quarterback took an unexpected leap during his second season in a great offense.

Ryan had never been a first-team All-Pro or received an MVP vote before 2016. After a frustrating first season in Atlanta under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan in 2015, though, everything clicked. A quarterback who had never averaged even 8 yards per attempt put up 9.3 yards per attempt and 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt, with the latter mark coming in as the sixth-best figure in NFL history after accounting for era. Ryan led the league in passer rating as his Falcons went 11-5 before coming up just short in Super Bowl LI.

Stafford and the Rams already have their Super Bowl, but it would hardly be a surprise if he was better in his second season under coach Sean McVay. Stafford actually got off to an MVP-caliber start last season, as he threw 22 touchdown passes against four picks in the first half of the season, only to struggle with turnovers in the second half. Two more interceptions in Super Bowl LVI didn’t stop the Rams from taking home the hardware.

Now, with wideout Allen Robinson in the mix and running back Cam Akers recovered from his torn Achilles, what if Stafford looks like that guy we saw in the first half over the entire season?

The candidate: Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos

The MVP season comp: Peyton Manning in 2013

The story in 2013: A legendary passer found new life a mile high.

This one’s a stretch, if only because Manning had his spectacular season in his second year with the Broncos, while we’re projecting Wilson to win MVP in his debut campaign with Denver after a blockbuster trade in March. Just as Manning was able to elevate a group with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas into one of the league’s most devastating passing attacks, though, Wilson will get to throw to Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick.

If we were going to go in a different direction, leave the idea of new digs aside, and just focus on a quarterback who produced massive numbers in his second season after a significant injury, we could also compare Manning to Dak Prescott, who missed most of 2020 after gruesomely dislocating his ankle. Manning, however, had already won four MVP awards in Indianapolis before taking home his fifth and final trophy for the Broncos, while neither Prescott nor Wilson have yet received a single MVP vote.

The candidate: Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

The MVP season comp: Adrian Peterson in 2012

The story in 2012: A bruising, throwback runner responded to a notable injury with a historic campaign.

The last running back to win MVP had to come back from a torn ACL to get there. Peterson was one of the NFL’s best backs between 2007 and 2010, but after suffering a left high ankle sprain in November 2011, he returned quickly and then tore up his left knee. With Peterson suffering the injury in Week 16, there were serious questions about whether he would even be ready for Week 1 the following season.

Peterson was ready, but after getting off to a slow start by his standards, he simply took over. He put up eight consecutive 100-plus yard games in midseason and finished with a 212-yard performance against the Rams in Week 15 and a 199-yarder against the Packers in Week 17. The latter took Peterson past 2,000 yards for the season and clinched a playoff spot for the Vikings, who were starting Christian Ponder at quarterback and failed to have a single pass-catcher top 700 receiving yards. It was the Peterson show.

Henry is a unique player in his own right, but he has been similarly dramatic for the Titans over the past few years. Even in 2021, when his efficiency numbers were down, the Titans gave him the single largest workload in league history through the first half of the year before he broke his right foot. Henry made it back for the postseason, but he wasn’t his usual self in a disappointing divisional-round loss to the Bengals.

Now, presumably back to 100% for 2022, Henry should be restored as the focal point of the Tennessee offense, especially after the organization shipped A.J. Brown to the Eagles. With a 17th game on the schedule and a coaching staff happy to hand him historic rushing opportunities, Henry could do the one thing Peterson failed to do in 2012: top Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 yards and set the single-season rushing record.

The candidate: Brett Rypien, QB, Denver Broncos

The MVP season comp: Kurt Warner in 1999

The story in 1999: An unknown backup was forced into action by injury and produced one of the greatest seasons in league history.

Kurt Warner might be the most unlikely MVP in modern sports history. An NFL Europe product who had a total of 11 career pass attempts entering his age-28 season, he wasn’t even a lock to take over as his team’s starter once Trent Green tore the ACL in his left knee in 1999. Playing ahead of rookie fourth-round pick Joe Germaine, Warner thrived for what had been the league’s 24th-ranked scoring offense the year prior. Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce all produced huge seasons, and Warner took home an MVP and a Super Bowl ring.

Picking the next Warner is a shot in the dark, but let’s play along. We need someone who has several exciting weapons but whose offense wasn’t good a year ago. The pick needs to be older than the typical projectable backup, but he can’t have much pro experience. Warner was undrafted, so we can’t pick anyone with a significant draft pedigree. If we can find someone who has experience stocking supermarket shelves, all the better.

I’m not sure Rypien has worked at a grocery story, but the former Boise State quarterback has been on and off the Broncos roster the last three seasons. The 26-year-old former undrafted free agent has more experience than Warner, with one start and 42 pass attempts under his belt, but he has stuck around through what will now be three offensive coordinators.

The Broncos, who ranked 23rd in scoring offense a year ago, obviously don’t want to depend on Rypien. Nobody wants to see Russell Wilson get hurt, particularly the organization that just went and spent multiple first-rounders to acquire their new quarterback. If something did happen to Wilson, though, Rypien and journeyman Josh Johnson are the only other quarterbacks on the roster. I imagine they would add someone if Wilson suffered a long-term injury, but the Rams moved forward with Warner as their starter, and you saw how that went.

Now, I know what you’re saying: It’s preposterous to suggest Rypien could win MVP. So many things would have to happen (and not happen) to clear a path for a guy who looks like he probably isn’t an NFL-caliber starting quarterback. And yet, Warner was older, less experienced at the NFL level and had stiffer competition for the would-be starting job in terms of a midround pick. Put that in context and you understand just how remarkable his 1999 season was in the moment.

The candidate: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

The MVP season comp: Terrell Davis in 1998

The story in 1998: The “system back” went supernova.

You know the story about the running backs in the offense Mike Shanahan and Alex Gibbs ran in Denver. Plug in any late-round pick, undrafted guy or journeyman and you would get a 1,200-yard season. Mike Anderson. Olandis Gary. Reuben Droughns. When the Broncos actually used a second-round pick on Clinton Portis in 2002, he looked good enough that Washington felt the need to trade future Hall of Fame cornerback Champ Bailey and a second-round pick to acquire him.

Davis was a sixth-round pick in 1995 — and I have no doubt he landed in the best possible offense for his skill set — but history tells us he wasn’t just some replacement-level runner. Davis’ numbers stand out in comparison to all the other backs Shanahan and his successors have used in their offenses over the past 25 years. He had a three-year run as the best back in football, culminating in 1998, when he ran for 2,008 yards and 21 touchdowns. He only carried the ball 312 times more as a pro over three injury-hit seasons, but his peak was good enough to justify a trip to Canton in 2017.

Now, virtually half the league runs some semblance of the Shanahan offense, so we have plenty of possible candidates for a transcendent season. The guy I’ll pick is Chubb, who routinely posts otherworldly numbers in situations in which other backs struggle.

Take running into loaded boxes, when the other team has more defenders in the box than would-be blockers. The average running back averaged 3.7 yards per carry in those situations a year ago. Chubb carried the ball 63 times in those situations for 435 yards, good for nearly 7 yards per carry. He ran for 153 yards over the expectations of the NFL Next Gen Stats’ Model and eight additional first downs over what an average back would have expected to do in those spots. And if you think that’s a fluke, he had 69 carries for 453 yards in those same spots in 2021, with 173 rush yards and nine first downs more than the model expected.

If quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has been accused in civil lawsuits by 25 women of actions ranging from sexual assault to inappropriate behavior during massage sessions, gets suspended for the 2022 season, the Cleveland offense will fall on Chubb’s shoulders. We already know what Chubb is capable of executing, although he has only managed to make it through 16 games once as a pro. If the Browns run their offense through him for the sort of massive workload Davis saw in 1998, and Chubb stays healthy for the entire 17-game season, one Georgia back could follow in the footsteps of another.

The candidate: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

The MVP season comp: Brett Favre in 1995

The story in 1995: A budding young star quarterback took the leap.

After being traded by the Falcons to the Packers before the 1992 season, Favre wasn’t an instant success. He was a little better than league-average in 1992 and led the NFL in interceptions during a disappointing 1993 before getting back on track in 1994. The future Hall of Famer threw 33 touchdown passes against 14 picks, so while the 9-7 Packers were dropped comfortably by the Cowboys in the divisional round, Favre looked like he was one step away from competing with Troy Aikman and Steve Young in the NFC.

In 1995, he took about four steps forward. He led the league for the first time in passing yards, jumping a full yard per attempt over his mark in 1994. The Packers hit double-digit wins for the first of 10 times under their young quarterback. He won the first of three consecutive MVP awards. Green Bay still came up short against the Cowboys in the NFC Championship Game, but it would break through for a Super Bowl victory the following season.

The quarterback most often compared to Favre is Josh Allen, and the only reason I don’t have him here is that he’s already a star. We know Herbert’s capable of the spectacular — just watch his string of fourth-down conversions against the Raiders in Week 18 — but he hasn’t yet produced a full season like Favre in 1995 or Allen in 2020. Allen posted a 120 ANY/A+ that season (100 is league-average), while Favre got up to 130 during his first MVP season. Herbert has been solidly above-average over his first two seasons, with a 108 ANY/A+ mark as a rookie and 109 last season.

With the Chargers retaining wideout Mike Williams and using a first-round pick on lineman Zion Johnson, there aren’t many weak spots on the Los Angeles offense. The organization seems committed to letting Herbert throw at one of the league’s highest rates in neutral situations. Everything you would want to have in place for an MVP campaign is here. In the crucible of the 2022 AFC West, it’s not difficult to imagine Herbert thriving.

The candidate: Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

The MVP season comp: Lawrence Taylor in 1986

The story in 1986: A generational pass-rusher challenged the single-season sack record on a dominant defense.

Taylor was hardly a secret by 1986. The Giants legend had already started his career by winning back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards, and as he entered his sixth season, he had been a first-team All-Pro in each of his first five campaigns. The 1986 season, though, was his magnum opus. Taylor topped what had been his career high of 13 sacks by making it all the way to 20.5, marking the second-best official mark in league history. The Giants were the league’s second-best scoring defense, going 14-2 en route to a Super Bowl XXI victory.

You can throw T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons into the mix as candidates, but I’m going to nominate the most dominant defender in the league. Donald took over in the Super Bowl for the Rams. He has been a first-team All-Pro seven consecutive times. The only thing left for him to do as a pro, really, is challenge for the single-season sack record. He came close with 20.5 sacks in 2018 but hasn’t topped 13.5 otherwise.

Like so many others on this list, we know Donald is capable of putting together something otherworldly over 17 games. If he were to become the first player in league history to hit 25 sacks and the Rams field one of the best defenses in football, he would engender serious MVP consideration.

The candidate: Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore Ravens

The MVP season comp: Mark Moseley in 1982

The story in 1982: A kicker got white-hot, and everyone was in awe.

This was a strange year. A players’ strike limited the season to nine games, which created an opportunity that likely wouldn’t exist otherwise. Moseley, who had hit 62% of his field goals over what was already a lengthy career, went 20-of-21. Several were game winners for an 8-1 Washington team. The small sample helped Moseley (who surely would have regressed to the mean over a larger sample) and hurt all the usual candidates (whose numbers looked puny relative to the usual 14- or 16-game totals).

Moseley won a narrow race, 35 votes to 33, over quarterback Dan Fouts. I wrote about this race a few years ago and found that Moseley’s kicks weren’t as impactful as he might have suggested. In fact, he probably wasn’t even the league’s most valuable kicker that year, given three missed extra points and a lack of kickoff duties. In a universe in which television coverage and analysis weren’t anywhere near as comprehensive as they are now, though, his season pulled off what would seem impossible in 2022.

It almost goes without saying that Tucker would be the candidate if we were picking one kicker to win MVP. The more interesting question is figuring out what it might take to win. He hit on nearly 95% of his field goals last season, including a record-setting 66-yarder to win a game against the Lions. Of course, the Ravens faded badly in the second half, and Tucker was never really under MVP consideration.

He would need something virtually unprecedented. The Ravens would need to win at least 14 games. He would need to be perfect (or come close) and hit at least five game-winners, preferably from long distance and in games Baltimore was losing. Even then, Lamar Jackson would be more likely to win MVP than his kicker, but that’s the sort of difference Tucker would have to make to get in the conversation.

Is that possible? I think so. Gary Anderson and Mike Vanderjagt both produced perfect field goal seasons during the 16-game era. And last season, Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson hit nine field goals in the fourth quarter or overtime which gave his team a lead, three more than we’ve seen from any other kicker since 2000, Tucker included. Getting both those things to happen in the same season without your team’s quarterback playing well enough to win MVP might be an impossible needle to thread, but Moseley managed to pull it off just over 40 years ago.

I’m not bringing up these comparables to say that they’re the only players who could win MVP. In looking at the past, though, we can get a sense of what has happened to lead players to the sport’s biggest individual honor. After a few years of MVP chaos, I wouldn’t blame you for arguing anything is possible.

What does Vegas think?

Best Odds To Win NFL MVP

PLAYER TEAM                ODDS

Josh Allen BUF                 +700

Patrick Mahomes KC       +800

Tom Brady TB                  +900

Aaron Rodgers GB         +1000

Justin Herbert LAC         +1000

Joe Burrow CIN              +1300

Russell Wilson DEN         +1600

Dak Prescott DAL            +1600

Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Because Barnwell is playing his game with comparing past MVPs, he doesn’t have Allen, Mahomes, Burrow and Prescott on his list for a lack of comparisons, we guess.

Want some long shots?

How about Raiders QB DEREK CARR?  He has 4 straight seasons with 4,000+ yards, but he’s never had a big TD year.  Maybe the arrival of WR DAVANTE ADAMS will get his TD passes up into the 30s, his yards over 5,000 and his wins over 12.  New coaching might help.

How about Saints QB JAMEIS WINSTON?  New Orleans has a huge upgrade at wide receiver, running back questions that could lead to lots of passing, a good roster with low expectations so 12-5 would seem like a surprise.  In 2019, his last full year, Winston went 5,100 yards, 33 TDs BUT 30 INTs. Cut that number to say 12, and you have an MVP candidate.

BROADCAST NEWS

An update for the bidding for Sunday Ticket.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Sunday Ticket could end up being the biggest ticket in the NFL’s broadcasting rights portfolio.

Dylan Byers of Puck News reports that the price for the out-of-market package could spike to as much as $3 billion per year.

The report also pegs Apple as the “most likely” winner of the Sunday Ticket rights. Other finalists are Disney and Amazon.

Sunday Ticket allows fans to watch out-of-market games, at a cost in the range of $300 per season. CNBC has reported that the NFL’s deals with Fox and CBS prevent the Sunday Ticket package from being sold for considerably less than that amount.

Fans have been craving a shift from satellite-based DirecTV to a streaming product. It’s possible that the winner of the rights will be able to carve out satellite rights for consumers in rural areas that lack high-speed Internet access. The availability of the Sunday Ticket package for bars and restaurants also could be an issue, since they traditionally rely on satellite signals.

TOP 10 TIGHT ENDS

What does the panel convened by Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com think about the tight ends?

Tight ends in the NFL fall into two categories: the traditional ones, and wide receivers who are tight ends by title due to their size. Several players in this year’s top 10 either have mild interest in blocking or aren’t asked to do it as often as a traditional tight end would. That’s largely because they are so good at beating coverages to get open. But it also leaves those who voted here in a precarious spot, choosing between throwback-style favorites and matchup tight ends who fit today’s passing trends.

This debate spills into the top of the rankings for a third consecutive year. Let’s look at some of the game’s top tight ends as ranked by execs, coaches, scouts and players around the NFL.

1. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 3

Age: 28 | Last year’s ranking: 1

Kittle’s all-around game still endears him to voters, leading to his third consecutive first-place crown.

His production last year — 71 catches for 910 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games — was modest for his standards, and he missed time for a third straight season because of a calf injury. But Kittle’s 6.2 catches above expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and 19.4% reception rate per route run were both second highest among tight ends.

“He’s such an explosive player with or without the ball, run game, run after catch — that to me is the biggest thing,” an NFC offensive coach said. “He’s never going to be a great route runner. But he plays so physical through contact, and his savvy, and his play speed is so fast that he can overcome all of that.”

Kittle’s 452 yards after catch ranked second among tight ends, and his 188 yards after first contact were third.

2. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 4

Age: 32 | Last year’s ranking: 2

The No. 1 ranking has alluded Kelce for three years, but he’s nearly four years older than Kittle, and Kittle will always have the blocking advantage over him. But let’s not discount Kelce’s historic run of 704 catches for 9,006 yards since 2014 — and the way he does it.

“When it comes to route running, putting him out there all game and asking him to isolate and win, there’s still nobody better at the position,” a veteran AFC scout said.

An open-field savant, Kelce led all tight ends in yards after contact (197) and yards after catch (554). He also runs more routes than any tight end, posting 553 last season and turning them into 92 catches, 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns, though he did have six drops on the year.

“He’s still so clutch in big moments,” a veteran AFC offensive coach said. “Just look at the end of the Bills game [in the playoffs].”

Down three points this past January, Kelce caught a pass for a 25-yard gain with under 10 seconds left, settling up a tying field goal. Then he went on to catch the winning TD in overtime.

3. Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 5

Age: 29 | Last year’s ranking: 3

Waller’s 2021 production was unspectacular, due in part to ankle and knee injuries that cost him six games. With 55 catches for 665 yards and two touchdowns, Waller was well off his pace from 2019-20, when he averaged nearly 100 catches and 1,200 yards per year. His 7.1 yards per target were ninth among tight ends, and per NFL Next Gen Stats, his catch rate over expectation was minus-4.9% (21st for TEs with 50-plus targets).

But the numbers don’t tell the whole story with Waller, whose presence on the depth chart keeps defensive coaches restless. He’s in his prime as the most dangerous matchup tight end in the NFL behind Kelce. Josh McDaniels’ offense is expected to feature Waller early and often in Year 1.

“I don’t even really look at him as a tight end, though he can function as one,” an AFC coordinator said. “You can line him up anywhere. He can bully smaller DBs and has the speed to separate. He’s a guy you can throw vertically to and have no reservations, can throw him jump balls, quick passes over the middle. His range is pretty incredible.”

His 4.46-second 40-yard dash speed helps him accelerate in the open field, and 23.6% of his catches gained at least 20 yards last season — third among tight ends with 30-plus receptions.

Waller is not known for his blocking, but at 6-foot-6 and 255 pounds, he can also do damage there when necessary.

4. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 6

Age: 26 | Last year’s ranking: 4

Andrews made his most compelling argument for the top three yet, leading the tight end class in targets (152), receptions (107), receiving yardage (1,361), first downs (75, 12 more than any other tight end) and air yards per target (10.3). His nine TD catches also tied three others for the tight end lead.

In a run-first Ravens offense, Andrews continues to dominate. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he saw 25.9% of Baltimore’s targets last season, the eighth-highest percentage in the NFL regardless of position.

“He’s certainly exceeded my expectations,” an NFC offensive coach said. “I thought he was a one-speed guy, but he’s been more dynamic than that. Great catch radius and savvy. He just doesn’t have the elite skills that you see with a [Kyle] Pitts or Waller. Can he matchup outside and win like those guys? I think he’s a notch below that.”

5. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Highest ranking: 3 | Lowest ranking: 10

Age: 21 | Last year’s ranking: Unranked (rookie)

Last year’s voters telegraphed Pitts as a top-five tight end after his rookie year, and he fulfilled that promise with a 1,026-yard season in Atlanta, making him the first rookie tight end since Mike Ditka to hit that mark.

“He’ll be in that Waller and Kelce class after next year,” an NFL coordinator said. “He doesn’t even know what he’s doing yet — wait until he figures it out.”

What needs to be figured out is the nuance of the position, including blocking. It has never been Pitts’ calling card, though he has improved in that area since college. But stretching the field is no problem for the 2021 fourth overall pick. Pitts led the position in air yards per target (10.8) and yards before first contact per catch (13.1).

Pitts had only one touchdown catch, though, and his 61.8% catch rate was 22nd among tight ends.

6. Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Highest ranking: 5 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 6

Goedert was the most consistent vote-getter in the next tier of tight ends, appearing on nearly 80% of the ballots. He is considered versatile for his ability to run routes with nuance and burst; flex into different positions, such as slot tight end or backside receiver; and hold up as a blocker in the running game.

“He’s kind of a sleeper to me,” an AFC personnel evaluator said. “Never gets huge media praise, but he’s a big, smooth athlete who’s good in both phases of the game — can stretch the seams and also has enough athletic ability to run the route tree.”

Young quarterbacks need nothing more than a friendly target over the middle, and Goedert provides Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts with just that. Hurts produced a 92.8 QBR when throwing Goedert’s way, and 25.0% of Goedert’s catches went for at least 20 yards, second among tight ends last season behind Tampa Bay’s Rob Gronkowski. Only Pitts had more yards per reception than Goedert’s 14.8.

In all, Goedert caught 56 balls for 830 yards and four scores — but his 6.6% drop rate wasn’t stellar.

“One of the few three-down-capable TEs that win from multiple spots in the passing game with speed to win vertically, and he gives you enough as an inline blocker,” an NFC executive said.

7. T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

Highest ranking: 5 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 25 | Last year’s ranking: 5

Hockenson is a tight end in the classic sense, about as well-rounded as they come. His 2021 production was solid (61 catches for 583 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games) while playing in the league’s 25th-ranked scoring offense.

“He has some explosion in the passing game, and he’s a competitive blocker,” an NFC exec said. “As far as all-around tight ends go, he’s really good. Not flashy.”

Hockenson posted a respectable 86.1 Pro Football Focus rating, and his 44.4% reception rate on tight-window throws was sixth at the position (NFL Next Gen Stats). The Lions are expected to prioritize Hockenson in contract extension talks sometime this summer.

8. Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Highest ranking: 5 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 26 | Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Schultz’s two-year run in Dallas has been among the steadiest of tight end play leaguewide, seeing him compile 141 receptions, 1,423 yards and 12 touchdowns since 2020. Last season, Schultz’s 76.5% reception rate was the highest for any tight end who caught at least 50 passes (78 of 102 targets), and per NFL Next Gen Stats, his 5.0 catches above expectation ranked third at the position.

“Dependability, versatile with blocking, really good hands,” an AFC exec said.

Added an NFC offensive coach: “He can handle multiple roles — good hands, competitive blocker, can bend to get in and out of breaks. Not as dynamic as others on this list but really solid.”

Schultz is set to play the 2022 season on a $10.8 million franchise tag unless the Cowboys sign him to a contract extension by Friday.

9. Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Highest ranking: 6 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 25 | Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Thanks to a strong third NFL season, Knox made a late voting surge to knock more decorated tight ends down the list. He emerged as a potent red zone threat for quarterback Josh Allen in Buffalo last season, with nine of his 49 receptions ending in the end zone, though 14 tight ends had more yardage than his 587.

“Very tough, athletic, good route runner,” one high-ranking AFC exec said. An AFC scout added that Knox’s run blocking and run-after-the-catch ability also stand out.

Knox must carve out real estate in the Bills’ playmaking cul-de-sac, but with Cole Beasley now gone, he can become a safety valve for Allen over the middle.

10. Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Highest ranking: 6 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 7

Henry won a tiebreaker with Miami’s Mike Gesicki to land the final spot in the top 10, with voters preferring Henry’s traditional tight end presence over Gesicki’s vertical-threat ability.

Henry went for 50 catches, 603 yards and nine touchdowns last season despite playing with a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones and a run-heavy Patriots attack. And he did not record a single drop in 75 targets.

“Really reliable player,” an NFL scouting director said. “Great hands. Quick and savvy.”

Honorable mentions

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins: One of the game’s best vertical tight ends, Gesicki was targeted on 22.2% of his routes last season, resulting in 73 catches for 780 yards and two scores. Voters are torn on his tight end merits. “He’s a negative as a blocker,” an NFL personnel director said. “Has redeeming qualities in the pass game, but that’s not a tight end to me, even though the game is going that way.” Added an AFC scout: “High floor, low ceiling. Kind of like boom or bust in fantasy but in real life.”

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers: Freiermuth impressed as a rookie with 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns while navigating Pittsburgh’s vertically challenged offense. He caught 75.9% of his targets, including 61.5% of his tight-window passes (second among tight ends, per NFL Next Gen Stats). “He’s really, really impressed me,” an AFC offensive coach said. “Just a good football player, has a feel for how to get open, athletic, tough. Needs to work on his blocking.”

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals: Ertz went to the desert to spark his career after a frustrating end to his time in Philly, and he produced 574 yards and three TDs on 56 catches over 11 games with the Cardinals, who acquired him via trade. Ertz turns 32 in November. “He looked refreshed in Arizona. Showed what he can do with capable quarterback play,” an NFC personnel evaluator said. “I thought he had lost a step, but he kept getting open.”

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns: Njoku has a combined 55 catches over the past two seasons but figures to see expanded workload after the Browns signed him to a four-year, $54.75 million extension this offseason. He is a big-play threat, with 22.2% of his receptions going for 20 or more yards last season (tied for 14th among tight ends). “Great size and speed and has gotten better as a blocker — I’ve just never trusted his hands,” a veteran NFC offensive coach said. Njoku has three drops on 82 targets since 2020.

Also receiving votes: Jonnu Smith (New England Patriots), Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams), C.J. Uzomah (New York Jets), Noah Fant (Seattle Seahawks), Austin Hooper (Tennessee Titans)