Keep an eye out for the new-look Guardian Caps to make it into NFL games this season.  Mike Florio on some news out of Chargers camp:

Last year, as the NFL touted the safety enhancements of Guardian Caps, the league wasn’t willing to allow players to wear them during games. Several months ago, the league quietly reversed course.

And it looks like changes are being made in order to make the external helmet padding look less cumbersone if/when it shows up on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and any other days the NFL plays its games.

As noted by Albert Breer of SI.com, Guardian Caps worn by the Chargers now have outer wraps that make them look more like helmets.

We’ve yet to see similar photos from other camps. In L.A., it’s already commonplace, even on the first day of training-camp practice.

It could be a sign that new coach Jim Harbaugh not only supports but also encourages his players to take advantage of the protection afforded by the Guardian Caps. While there’s an obvious concern about the aesthetics of televised football being disrupted by the clunky devices, the outer layer will make it far more palatable to the average viewer.

And if Guardian Caps truly make the safer, both for those wearing the helmets and those who are struck by helmets, why not use them?

For Harbaugh, who has always balanced pushing his players to excel while keeping their best interests in mind, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he’d want them to use an extra piece of equipment that helps minimize injuries.

Why not approach it that way? Keeping players healthy is good for them as human beings. It’s also good for the coach, if it helps keep his players healthy.

It makes even more sense for the Chargers, who seem to regularly have injury issues that keep them from the outcomes their collective talents should help them achieve.

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

WR JORDAN ADDISON admits to being in a “dark place” just a few weeks ago.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison found himself in a “dark place” after his arrest earlier this month on suspicion of driving under the influence, he said Wednesday in his first public comments since the incident. He emerged, he said, in large part because of the unexpected level of support he received from teammates and coaches.

“I was surprised by the support that I received,” Addison said following the Vikings’ first practice of training camp. “I didn’t think it was going to be how it was, but it was really important. I was in the dark place. I was feeling down, and they really uplifted me, uplifted me to come out here and just perform at a high level still. So, through everything that’s going on, I’m going to put it behind me and I’m still going to perform at a high level, come out here give the fans what they pay for.”

Just before midnight local time on July 12, a California Highway Patrol officer found Addison asleep behind the wheel of a Rolls-Royce on Interstate 105 near Los Angeles International Airport. The car was blocking a lane of the freeway, and a DUI investigation led to his arrest. As of Wednesday, there have been no formal charging documents filed in court.

Addison could face discipline from the NFL, depending on the outcome of the legal process.

“Whatever’s out there for me,” he said, “whatever comes with it, I’ll own up to everything. I feel like anything that comes my way is meant to happen or is deserved.”

The incident occurred nearly a year after Addison was cited for driving 140 mph on a Minnesota freeway in July 2023. He subsequently agreed to plead guilty to a misdemeanor speeding charge, with a charge of reckless driving dismissed. He paid $686 in fines.

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said earlier this week he was “disappointed” in Addison but added: “I’m excited to get Jordan back in our building, get him around his teammates and begin that process of wrapping our arms around him … with the discipline and accountability being a part of it.”

Wideout Justin Jefferson was among the teammates who have offered Addison support in his return, saying Wednesday: “I’m always going to be that person that he can lean on.”

Addison said he had been trying to “block the world out” in the immediate aftermath of the arrest.

“It’s a lot on me sometimes when things come out in the media,” he said. “A lot of people that’s reading it don’t really know who I am for real from the incident. So, they just judge me off incidents that happened. They’re not around me every day. They don’t know what I do for people outside of football, but that’s all it is. It’s tough.”

Asked if he thinks he has an issue that needs to be addressed away from football, Addison said: “I’m just going to keep learning. I’m saying that’s all I can do, is just learn from my mistakes and keep moving forward. That’s what it is.”

NFC EAST

DALLAS

The Cowboys have slow-walked three key extensions – but the holdout of WR CeeDEE LAMB will finally require action.  Or so Charles McDonald of YahooSports.com believes:

No one knows what Dallas is doing, but it’s provocative

The Cowboys are constantly mainstays in the NFL news cycle for a variety of reasons, but this time it’s for a reason that is driving their fan base absolutely mad. They have three crucial players up for contract extensions: Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb. They’re three players integral to the success of the Cowboys and their future endeavors. Right now, the club has gone 0-for-3, with not a single one of these contract situations resolved. Prescott is probably the most important contract they have to get done based on the nature of his position, but Lamb is actually the one that’s currently causing the most strife.

According to multiple media outlets, Lamb won’t be participating in Dallas’ training camp without a new deal. Lamb is subject to daily $40,000 fines which can be eventually waived by the team. There really isn’t any incentive for Lamb to show up without a contract offer in hand from the Cowboys that has a chance to make him the highest-paid wide receiver in the league. His play last season deserved that and the Cowboys can’t have a functional offense without him in the lineup. He’s a total and complete necessity.

It’s baffling that the Cowboys seem content with the crux of their roster playing on expiring or near-expiring deals. Assuming Prescott, Lamb and Parsons play up to the talent levels that they’ve shown to this point, those deals are going to get only more expensive over the next eight months. It doesn’t make sense to give the player all the leverage in this situation and make the team more desperate in its function.

The only reason this could make sense is if the Cowboys are truly ready to hit the “reset” button after this upcoming season. That would be bold. This is a franchise quarterback, wide receiver and pass rusher — three pillars that every team would love to have. Yet the Cowboys are treating this situation a bit flippantly. Proactiveness will save them a ton of grief and money if they can get out of their own way and do something. Playing the season, or really even entering training camp, with these issues unresolved doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

But it gets the people going. Seriously, just search “@DallasCowboys” on Twitter. It’s a gold mine.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Josh Kendall of The Athletic looks at Raheem Morris 2.0:

When Cadillac Williams was drafted by Tampa Bay with the fifth pick of the 2005 NFL Draft, he was a 23-year-old star out of Auburn. The man who was the Buccaneers’ assistant defensive backs coach was only five years older at the time.

Four years later, that man was his head coach. Raheem Morris was 32 years and 4 months old when he took over the top job in Tampa Bay, making him the second-youngest man to lead an NFL team in the league’s modern era at the time. (His future boss Sean McVay would knock him down to third on that list eight years later.)

“Now that I am 42 and thinking about him being in his early 30s, in some cases you have guys on the team that are actually older than him and he’s trying to lead and he’s so young,” Williams said, “what’s crazy is that as young as he was, (he was) so good in that role.”

His Buccaneers weren’t very good, though. They went 17-31 from 2009 to 2011 under Morris with the highlight being a 10-6 season in 2010 in which the Bucs finished third in the NFC South. Morris was fired after the 2011 season.

The people who were there with him then believe he’ll be better now while stressing they believe he was pretty good then and a victim of circumstance as much as his own inexperience.

“It’s going to go back with me to the way he cares about people, the way he is able to empower the people around him,” said Williams, who led Tampa Bay in rushing in Morris’ first season as head coach. “I just think that he is a guy that wants to help other people thrive. He can develop people in a way that’s uncanny, to be honest with you.”

Rich Bisaccia and Morris both started their NFL head coach careers in Tampa Bay in 2002, Bisaccia as special teams coordinator and Morris as a defensive quality control coach, and Bisaccia served as Morris’ assistant head coach and special teams coordinator in 2009 and 2010.

“He never has a bad day,” said Bisaccia, now the Packers’ assistant head coach and special teams coordinator “He’s got tremendous energy, and he always sees what could be better going forward.”

Bisaccia is surprised it took Morris 13 years to get a second chance as a head coach, but Morris has been careful to say that he carries no resentment for having to wait for another shot at the job. He’s grateful to have had even one chance to be a head coach in the league, much less two, or, as he tallies it, 2 1/2. Morris counts his 11 games as the Falcons’ interim head coach following Dan Quinn’s firing in 2020 as a half-year.

Morris said he will be less of a know-it-all and more focused on the entire team than he was in his first official stint as a head coach.

“In Tampa, I was calling the defense, I didn’t care what the offense was doing,” he said.

But he still believes the attitude he brings is his differentiator and will be the Falcons’.

“I want to bring a different vibe to how we view our football team,” he said. “It’s really about relationships. Our relationships have to be different. Those things translate to the football field, they translate to wins. For me, it’s about my own personal juice and energy and vibe. That stuff is what changes the game.”

He is approaching this training camp not as a grind but as a long busman’s holiday.

“Training camp is the best time ever for coaches,” Morris said. “When is the other time you get to do football, shower three times a day and feel good about life and go to work? It’s awesome. It’s the ultimate selfish moment.”

Morris “brings life to everything,” said Falcons first-year offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who worked with Morris the last three seasons in Los Angeles.

“Obviously, Raheem is the funniest guy ever,” Robinson said. “I don’t think I’ve ever been around Rah when he’s been in a bad mood or that he hasn’t said something that makes you laugh.”

While vibes alone aren’t likely to carry the Falcons to their long-term goals, they have helped in the short term. They finished 7-10 in each of the last three seasons and lost four of their last five games last year, including an embarrassing 48-17 loss to archrival New Orleans in the final game.

“He’s got great energy, that’s the first thing you notice,” Falcons veteran offensive lineman Jake Matthews said. “The way he described it is he’s trying to breathe life into the team and be our greatest motivator, a guy that holds people accountable but at the same time builds people up.”

Morris should be better at balancing accountability with ego boosting this time because he has spent so much time around proven head coaches since his time in Tampa Bay, Bisaccia said. After being fired, Morris worked alongside McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel and Matt LaFleur in Washington and then spent two years working with Shanahan in Atlanta in 2015 and 2016 and the last three seasons under McVay in Los Angeles.

“Hopefully, that’s what wisdom has given him,” Bisaccia said. “He’s probably worked on his temperament and his personality on how he’s going to react when adversity hits or when prosperity hits. I’m sure he’ll be better at that. It looks like Raheem has certainly gained wisdom into what that position holds and what it means to be in front of a team every day. He’s a tremendous leader.”

Quinn called Morris “the rare both” for his ability to combine motivation with the technical aspects of the job.

The motivational side is certainly working with the young players on a roster that will need several of those players to elevate their game this season.

Falcons outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie said his first phone call with Morris “was dope.”

“He’s a great guy, such an easy, outgoing person,” Ebiketie said. “He’s also someone who can push you.”

Second-year linebacker Zach Harrison said the energy in Atlanta’s practice facility “is just different.”

“Guys are excited to go to work for coach Raheem,” Harrison said. “I feel like guys really appreciate his energy and the ability to be themselves.”

“He brings the juice, that’s for sure,” wide receiver Darnell Mooney said. “He brings that confidence in a player to go out there and dominate. It’s not just drilling you, drilling you, drilling you. He gets you to a place where you can push yourself.”

Linebacker Kaden Elliss, who is entering his sixth year in the league, also is impressed but acknowledges that a good mood can be hard to maintain through the rigors of an NFL season.

“The energy they are bringing every day is special and it hasn’t dropped off yet,” he said. “I don’t believe it will, but if it does, I’ll have to tell them.”

The Falcons will hold their first practice of the preseason Thursday morning. Wednesday was filled with mundane back-to-school tasks like dorm room move in, player photos and meetings.

“I think Rah is super authentic,” Pro Bowl safety Jessie Bates said after his arrival for his second season in Atlanta. “You talk to guys all around the league, from players to coaches, and everybody speaks very highly of him. We had OTAs together and Rah lived up to it. Just excited to have him throughout a whole season and see how we respond and play for a guy like him.”

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD professes delight with his new deal with the Rams, whatever it may be.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

As we wait to get our eyes on the full details of the new three-year deal that replaced Matthew Stafford’s prior three-year deal, the Rams and their franchise quarterback are moving forward.

“It was a good agreement,” Stafford told reporters on Wednesday. “Listen, I’m happy to be where I am, you know what I mean? I’m happy to be here. I’m happy to be playing. I’m excited about playing football this year and that’s what matters to me the most, to be honest with you.”

Did he think he wouldn’t be practicing on the first day of training camp, due to the previously unsettled contract situation?

“I don’t even think about that kind of stuff, to be honest with you,” Stafford said. “In this business, I’m play-to-play, day-to-day and I’m moment-to-moment so I’m happy to be doing this. Today was a great start for our team, which was really fun to be out there with these guys. We have some guys back that haven’t been out on the field for a while so it’s great to see those guys come out and practice. Shoot, we haven’t done this in a while so it’s nice to be out here and throw it around to let these guys do their thing.”

He also was asked whether there was any stress from the fact that negotiations with the Rams went down to the final hours before camp got started.

“I do a pretty stressful thing for a living so I’m kind of used to those kinds of things,” Stafford said. “To be honest with you, I’m happy to be where I am. I know that sounds — over and over again you’re going hear it, but that’s just the truth of it. I’m not interested in kind of reliving my moment-by-moment feelings here or there, but I am just interested in pushing this team and getting to play with these guys for another season.”

The main sticking point, as of April, came from the fact that Stafford had no guarantees beyond 2024. He presumably now does, which ensures he’ll be with the Rams (or at least paid by the Rams) for a minimum of two years. The amount remains to be seen, but it was enough to get him to put his name on the dotted line.

Now, he can focus on getting the most out of what will be his fourth season in L.A. — and his sixteenth in the NFL.

SAN FRANCISCO

The much traveled Michael Silver, now with the San Francisco Chronicle, looks at the two big 49ers contract disputes:

Brandon Aiyuk strolled across the sideline between the San Francisco 49ers’ practice fields, had a brief conversation with general manager John Lynch and made his way back to the locker room, smiling as he passed a large contingent of media members. The first practice of training camp was only minutes old, and we’d already been treated to our first dose of drama.

Trent Williams didn’t bother with the theatrics. By lunchtime, however, the All-Pro left tackle had usurped Aiyuk as the story of the day — and as the Niners’ biggest and most pressing problem.

Like Aiyuk, the fifth-year receiver coming off a career season, Williams wants more money than the 49ers are set to pay him in 2024. Unlike Aiyuk — who, a week after news broke that he has requested a trade, is curiously staging what amounts to a “hold in” — Williams isn’t tripping on pleasantries or avoiding fines.

Williams, to be fair, has more leverage than does Aiyuk. Williams, 36, is one of the best football players on earth, and he’s the most indispensable human in the 49ers’ organization. If Williams doesn’t get a new deal to his satisfaction and is willing to retire, sit out the season or demand a trade, the Niners don’t have a lot of viable options.

Without Williams, their offensive line is substandard. His backup, fourth-year tackle Jaylon Moore, would not be a starter for any of the league’s other 31 teams. When you’re trying to get back to the Super Bowl, and finally win it, this is not a good recipe for success.

The Niners, coming off a second Super Bowl defeat and fourth trip to the conference title game in the past five seasons, are entering a 2024 campaign with Last Dance overtones.

If Williams stays away, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense may soon resemble Elaine (Little Kicks) Benes hitting the dance floor in the infamous “Seinfeld” episode.

We saw what the 49ers looked like without Williams for most of one game and all of two more last season, when he went down with an ankle sprain. You may remember those games: They were debacles. The Niners, after a 5-0 start, suffered consecutive defeats to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals.

After a bye week, Williams returned. San Francisco destroyed the then-surging Jaguars 34-3 and proceeded to win six in a row.

Coincidence? I think not.

It’s obvious that Williams, due to make $20.05 million in base salary and another $750,000 in per-game roster bonuses in 2024, is underpaid. On Tuesday, the Vikings and fifth-year left tackle Christian Darrisaw (who?) agreed to a four-year, $113 million extension. The Giants’ Andrew Thomas, the Texans’ Laremy Tunsil and the Lions’ Penei Sewell are among the other tackles who make way more than Williams, who is far better than all of them.

This is not hard. Pay the man.

Williams, according to Shanahan, expressed his desire for a raise much earlier in the offseason, and there have been ongoing discussions between team executives and his agent. In other words, when players reported on Tuesday, Williams’ absence was not a surprise to Shanahan or Lynch.

Most fans and media members, however, didn’t see the holdout coming. That was by design. Unlike Aiyuk, who has been rather conspicuous in displaying his contract-related frustration, Williams is going about his business without fanfare.

He’s the strong, silent type — and the 49ers are about to get pushed around in the negotiating room.

As for Aiyuk, well, he’s going about his business in a much different manner. And by different, I mean less effectively.

When you’re seeking a life-changing contract that could pay you more than $25 million per season — with perhaps $75 million (or more) of that money guaranteed — you need to think boldly when it comes to securing the bag.

Aiyuk seemed to be doing so when he requested a trade, with news of that development breaking last week.

Seven days later, he showed up for training camp. Huh? His vibe wasn’t exactly militant. “Put it this way,” said one organizational source. “The way he carried himself, seeing him interact, it didn’t create a real sense of fear that this won’t get done.”

So much for leverage.

Essentially Aiyuk, due to make a little more than $14.1 million via the fifth-year option, has already blinked in this staredown.

He made a lot of noise in the weeks leading up to training camp, which in retrospect appears to have been huffing and puffing. In June, Aiyuk posted a TikTok video of a FaceTime chat with Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, his former Arizona State teammate, in which he said of the 49ers, “They don’t want me back.”

Later in June, Aiyuk explained that declaration during a lengthy interview on the Pivot podcast, saying, “They told me that they didn’t think that we were on the same page and that they didn’t believe that we were going to” get a deal done.

Drama, drama, drama.

In all likelihood, the Niners and Aiyuk will get something done — but the terms will be closer to the team’s last, best offer than to what Aiyuk is  seeking. They’ve got the upper hand, especially when you consider that the 49ers can place the franchise tag on the receiver after 2024.

Theoretically, Aiyuk has the option to sit out as many as 11 games and still accrue a season toward free agency, though he would lose a prorated share of his salary. He could even skip the entire year, a la Le’Veon Bell in 2018. In the meantime, Aiyuk could cut off communication with his bosses and let them at least confront the specter of not having one of their key playmakers once the real games begin.

Let’s be honest — Aiyuk isn’t doing any of that. He wasn’t even dug in enough to stay away from training camp and risk incurring daily fines of $40,000 — small change compared to the haul he’s ultimately hoping to secure, and which can easily be forgiven by the 49ers once the dispute is resolved.

He’s going to cave; it’s just a matter of when.

Williams — not so much. By contrast, he’s subjected to daily fines of $50,000 which, because he’s not on a rookie deal, can’t be forgiven by the team after the fact. Do you think the future first-ballot Hall of Famer is sweating it? Yeah right. His unspoken message to the team: Put it on my tab.

Other than avoiding revokable fines, I’m not sure what Aiyuk is trying to accomplish. On Wednesday, Shanahan told reporters that he didn’t see much difference between a hold-in — a player showing up but not practicing — and a holdout.

In this case, however, there’s a key distinction.

Aiyuk, by holding in, is already making it clear that he isn’t going anywhere.

Williams isn’t saying anything; he doesn’t have to. On Wednesday, neither he nor his agent responded to my text messages, which is what I’d expect in this situation.

After all, this isn’t theater. It’s real life.

The bottom line is this: Williams isn’t here — and the 49ers aren’t going anywhere without him.

– – –

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has been gone for a few days – and now we know he was putting together a long, long look at the looming decision for the 49ers where the QB position could go from costing next to nothing to costing a whole lot. The whole thing ishere, much edited below:

In 2024, the San Francisco 49ers will enjoy a third and likely final season of the biggest bargain in sports. After selecting quarterback Brock Purdy with the 262nd and final pick of the 2022 draft, they signed the Iowa State product to a four-year, $3.7 million contract. He was guaranteed just $77,008, roughly 0.2% of what No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker was assured by the Jaguars when he was picked.

Since then, Purdy has emerged as one of the league’s most productive quarterbacks. Taking over for the injured Trey Lance and then Jimmy Garoppolo, he has gone 17-4 as the starter while posting a 71.4 QBR over the past two seasons. The only passers to top that mark since the start of 2022 are Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Purdy also has led San Francisco on two deep playoff runs, with one ended by a torn UCL in his right elbow in the NFC Championship Game and the other by Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII. The only quarterback to win more playoff games than Purdy’s four over his first two seasons is Ben Roethlisberger.

And yet, perhaps because of his status as a former seventh-round pick, there’s skepticism around Purdy that doesn’t seem to be there with other quarterbacks producing at his level. If there’s an advantage an NFL signal-caller can enjoy, he seems to have it. He has played his entire brief career with an incredible set of playmakers, a group I’ve ranked No. 1 in the league in both my 2023 and 2024 season previews. He has played behind perhaps the best left tackle in football in Trent Williams, and his playcaller is Kyle Shanahan, who has a well-earned reputation as one of the elite offensive minds in all of football.

Some have used that to essentially write off Purdy’s performance as a product of his environment. Others have ignored it and suggested he has brought the offense to a top level independent of the players around him. I’m not sure I agree with either statement, but there seems to be a truth somewhere in the middle about how essential he is to San Francisco’s chances of winning a Super Bowl.

With a potential raise of about $60 million per season looming as Purdy becomes eligible for a new deal in 2025, this season certainly feels like the 49ers’ last chance of winning a Super Bowl with this current roster construction. General manager John Lynch & Co. will need to choose one of two paths over the next 24 months. One is re-signing Purdy and making cutbacks elsewhere, potentially to the very playmakers who have helped elevate Purdy’s game. The other is a path virtually no team has been willing to consider in the modern game: keeping the playmakers and everything else on the roster and moving on from a productive quarterback once he gets expensive, even if that means starting over with an unknown.

Let’s take a look into what’s going to be the most fascinating decision of the next year. What can we say about Purdy’s performance? Are there other quarterbacks who have been this productive early in their careers before being found out later? What sort of cutbacks would the 49ers have to consider if they moved on from their QB? Why are they more sensitive to those changes than other teams? And could they really justify moving on from Purdy and starting over with another low-cost option?

We’ll start with Purdy’s on-field performance to put the start of his career into context.

How good is Purdy historically?

Very good. (long discussion edited out)

Are there holes in Purdy’s game?  Does he succeed in obvious passing situations? One of the most common arguments for Shanahan-era quarterbacks is they need heavy doses of play-action to thrive. They dominate on early downs, when teams are expecting the run, but get them in an obvious passing situation where defenses aren’t worried about the run, and they struggle with tougher matchups and reads.

(edit)

it’s also clear that obvious passing situations aren’t a week-to-week problem for Purdy.

Let’s consider another measure of obvious passing situations. NFL Next Gen Stats assigns a passing probability to each snap given what history suggests about down, distance and game situation. If we just look at plays where there was an expectation of at least 75% that a pass was coming, Purdy’s 0.14 EPA per play over the past two years ranks third in the league behind Mahomes and Allen. Pretty good company. Tagovailoa is fifth, while Stroud is 10th.

Can he operate as a pure dropback quarterback? Yes. (edit)

Does he struggle when he’s trailing?

The good news for Purdy is he does lead the league in yards per attempt when he’s trailing over the past two seasons. (Tagovailoa is second, while Stroud is third.) The problem is he does seem to be prone to throwing more interceptions

Can he throw deep? This was one of the missing pieces in the San Francisco offense with Garoppolo at the helm. (edit) While he’s not Lance or Stroud in terms of arm strength, Purdy doesn’t have the sort of capacity issues that would make me worried about his ability throwing downfield. Most of his most prominent misses on downfield throws so far as a pro have been overthrows on double moves or miscommunication on routes, where he expected a receiver to slow down into an empty zone and the receiver instead proceeded to continue running (or vice versa). Garoppolo’s reticence to throw deep put a cap on the San Francisco offense and its ceiling. That’s not really the case with Purdy so far.

Can he throw to the outside? If you close your eyes and envision a big play from the 49ers over the past two years, it’s probably an in-breaking route from someone like Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr. or Kittle. Shanahan loves to attack linebackers and safeties in coverage, so it should be no surprise that Purdy has thrown 46.1% of his passes over the past two seasons on in-breaking routes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s tops in the league. Behind him? Garoppolo in second, Tagovailoa in third and Stroud in fourth. No surprise there.

Is Purdy able to be as effective of a passer when he’s throwing routes that break vertically or out to the sidelines? Yes.

Does he benefit from more wide-open receivers? On the whole, Purdy’s intended targets aren’t notably open.

Does he get more yards after catch than other quarterbacks? Yes. (edit)

Is that a reason to tap the breaks? Not necessarily. Let’s normalize every team’s passing yardage as if they received average performance from their receivers after the catch to try and minimize the impact of that data boosting the 49ers’ quarterbacks up the charts. Would they still be as efficient if we bring their YAC totals back to earth?

Yes. Even after regressing every teams’ YAC to the mean, the Niners would have averaged 8.4 yards per attempt last season, the best mark in the league.

Does he struggle out of structure? This tends to be a criticism of quarterbacks who thrive in offenses with great playmakers and coaching. The idea is understandable: While a quarterback might look great when he has easy solutions and knows what’s coming on defense, it’s harder to make magic happen when he’s forced to create on the fly. That’s a place where super-talented, big-armed quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen excel. Is Purdy in their league?

We can split the idea of “out of structure” a few different ways. Let’s start with timing. The NFL defines passes “in rhythm” as plays in which the quarterback holds the ball for a time between 2.5 and four seconds, and plays that are “out of rhythm” as ones in which the quarterback holds the ball for more than four seconds. (Everything shorter is defined as quick throws.)

Unsurprisingly, over the past two seasons, Mahomes and Allen rank Nos. 1 and 2 in EPA per dropback when they hold the ball for more than four seconds. Purdy ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and No. 1 in success rate, which measures how often the offense stays on schedule in terms of generating expected points. That tells us he isn’t creating quite as many explosive plays as Mahomes or Allen in those out-of-rhythm situations, but he’s producing steady gains more often than anybody else. This wasn’t the case under Garoppolo, as the 49ers ranked below league average in EPA per dropback in those situations between 2019 and 2021 with their former starter on the field.

What about throwing under pressure? Again, by EPA per dropback, this was a problem for Garoppolo, who was below average when opposing pass rushes got home. It’s not for Purdy, who ranks fifth in EPA per dropback under pressure over the past two seasons. Two of the four players ahead of him are part-timers Andy Dalton and Jacoby Brissett.

Does the evidence say Purdy’s performance is a mirage? Not really, no. You can poke holes here and there — and there’s no doubt he benefits from having great players around him in the offense and Shanahan on the sidelines — but he’s producing at such a high level that you can even take some of the air out of his YAC numbers and still see elite production. He’s better than Tagovailoa and Stroud are now and better than Garoppolo was, especially in imperfect situations. He’s not quite as good out of structure relative to the rest of the league as he is in structure, but he’s certainly been good enough in those moments to avoid dragging the team down on a consistent basis.

One point I would make about personnel, though, is Purdy’s gotten to play virtually his entire career with McCaffrey, and the star back has helped unlock a new level of offense for the 49ers. Consider that before McCaffrey arrived, the 49ers were struggling. Through the first six weeks of the 2022 season, they ranked 19th in EPA per play. After trading for McCaffrey and before Purdy entered the lineup, they jumped to fifth. They were third after Purdy took over in 2022 and first last season.

What would Purdy’s contract extension look like?

Probably larger than you think or 49ers fans care to imagine. Right now, the top of the market for a quarterback coming off his third season is the five-year, $275 million deal signed by Jacksonville’s Lawrence in June. Purdy has been a more productive and successful player than Lawrence, even if he doesn’t have the same draft pedigree as the 2021 No. 1 overall pick.

Between now and then, we’re expected to see other quarterbacks sign extensions. Love is on the verge of inking a massive extension, while Prescott and the Cowboys could find common ground on an extension before the end of the league year, given that he would otherwise be an unrestricted free agent after the season. It would be a surprise if one or both of those passers didn’t break the latest threshold and make $60 million per year on their new contracts.

On top of that, Purdy isn’t eligible to sign his extension until 2025, when the salary cap should rise even further. The cap has risen an average of just under 12% per year over the past three seasons, and if we pencil that in as the expected rise for next year, it would jump from $255.4 million all the way north of $286 million. That creates more space for the 49ers to work with as they build a Purdy deal, but it also encourages him to land a larger contract to keep in line with the actual value of other contracts.

If he continues this level of play, my best estimate is that a Purdy deal would come in around five years and $325 million, for an average of $65 million per season. It’s always possible the quarterback could take some semblance of a reduced salary to try to make life easier for his team, but after making just $2.6 million over the first three years of his existing deal, I’m not sure why he would be willing to cut the 49ers any slack. (He has made a few hundred thousand dollars by virtue of the league’s performance-based pay system, but he’s still going to be the most underpaid player in football by a considerable margin.)

The 49ers would also have less leverage over Purdy than a team like the Jaguars would have over Lawrence. First-round picks have their rookie deals fully guaranteed, but in return, they also have a fifth-year option at a prescribed price that factors in position and early performance. As a result, when a first-round pick becomes eligible for free agency, they’re really four years away from unrestricted free agency, given that a team has the fourth year of their rookie deal, a fifth-year option and two potential franchise tags before running the risk of losing that quarterback for nothing in free agency.

Players chosen after the first round don’t have full guarantees and make less up front than the first-rounders, but they don’t have a fifth-year option, which allows them to get to free agency one year earlier. After 2024, Purdy will only be three years away from free agency. We’ve seen midround picks such as Prescott and Russell Wilson parlay those accelerated timelines into massive, player-friendly deals.

What would a $325 million extension mean for San Francisco?

Almost inevitably, it would mean some semblance of cutbacks elsewhere around the roster. While the salary cap is more pliable than it is in the NBA or NHL, adding $65 million or so in new player costs to a roster is going to impact what a team can do elsewhere. Even beyond the cash impact of paying a player that much money, there are inevitable cap restrictions that impact rosters, even if a team structures the deal to have relatively low costs early.

Take the Bengals, for example, who needed to pay Joe Burrow a team-record deal last offseason. Cincinnati had been aggressive in free agency to build a Super Bowl contender around him, but as his deal approached, it prepared for a future in which it wouldn’t be able to spend as much around its quarterback. The Bengals used a first-round pick on safety Dax Hill, signed Nick Scott to a much smaller deal and let starting safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell leave in free agency.

The move didn’t work, leading the Bengals to bring back Bell this offseason while moving on from Scott and shifting Hill to cornerback, but they don’t really have an ability to make major investments at the position at this point. Likewise, the team drafted edge rusher Myles Murphy in the first round of 2023 with the likelihood he’ll end up replacing either Sam Hubbard or Trey Hendrickson. Teams can prepare to save money, but there’s no guarantee the guys they draft will be as good as the ones who leave town.

The Chiefs moved in a different way. While Mahomes’ 10-year extension in 2020 was virtually unprecedented in terms of structure and scope, they were aggressive in moving on from veterans as their future Hall of Famer shifted from a rookie deal to a larger second contract. They moved on from Tyrann Mathieu and replaced him with a less expensive, younger safety in Justin Reid. They cut edge rusher Frank Clark and used a first-round pick on George Karlaftis. They traded away Tyreek Hill for draft picks and moved on from free agent addition Sammy Watkins, going younger and cheaper at wide receiver. At tackle, they let Eric Fisher leave, traded for Orlando Brown Jr., then let him leave in free agency when his price got too high. Kansas City still was able to make big investments — it re-signed Chris Jones, kept around Travis Kelce and added Jawaan Taylor in free agency — but it had to be more judicious after Mahomes got paid.

The 49ers already have major commitments coming due over the next two years. They have more than $319 million in cash going to their 2024 roster, the fourth-highest total of any team. Next year, they’re projected to pay out more than $230 million, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. While they have more than $30 million in present-day cap space they can roll over to next year if unused, they still need to work on new contracts for a trio of young stars in Aiyuk, safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw. All three are unrestricted free agents after the season.

In one way, there might be a natural ebb and flow to the finances of the roster on offense. Kittle is 31 and has two years left on the five-year, $75 million deal he signed in 2020. He’s still playing at a high level and is an immensely valuable player, but the attrition rate for tight ends on the wrong side of 30 is spectacularly high. If he suffers a significant injury or declines suddenly, the 49ers could choose to cut back at tight end, although it might be more likely they sign him to an extension over the next 12 months.

Likewise, while he’s a future Hall of Famer, left tackle Trent Williams is 36 years old. While there are three years and more than $77 million remaining on the contract he inked to rejoin the 49ers in 2021, none of that money is guaranteed. He hasn’t played a full season since 2013, and unlike Kittle, the 49ers conspicuously didn’t restructure his deal to create cap space this offseason, something they chose to do a year ago. Williams also didn’t report to training camp this week in search of a new deal, which could force the 49ers to make a tough decision in terms of future guarantees before they’re able to act on Purdy’s contract.

Meanwhile, Aiyuk is holding in to try to land a new deal, which would also limit San Francisco’s flexibility in the years to come. He was an elite performer a year ago, leading all wideouts in ESPN’s Receiver Tracking Metrics. At 26, he is younger than the other primary playmakers on this roster, which would seem to make him the most important one to keep around as Purdy enters his second deal.

Trading Aiyuk would make it easier to keep both Purdy and the other playmakers on the roster, but the time to do it was in April. Now, with the top of the wideout market having grown more expensive and the season approaching, a 49ers team that expects to win a Super Bowl probably won’t be able to get win-now playmakers in return for their star receiver. Trading him for picks now doesn’t make much sense. If they are going to trade Aiyuk, it would probably require them to franchise him next offseason before dealing him to another team.

Other players will be vulnerable. The 49ers could choose to move on from defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and a 2025 cap hit of more than $28 million after this season. They probably won’t keep Maliek Collins at a $10 million cap hold next year. In the question of what to do at wide receiver, they could retain Aiyuk and trade Samuel, who will be 29 next January and entering the final year of his extension. The decision to re-sign Jauan Jennings on a modest deal and use a first-round pick on Ricky Pearsall suggests one of the team’s star wide receivers is likely to be gone by the time the 49ers pay Purdy.

On the other hand, there is another team that has managed to pay a litany of key contributors on offense. The Eagles have handed out significant deals to a quarterback (Jalen Hurts), running back (Saquon Barkley), two wide receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith), a tight end (Dallas Goedert), two offensive tackles (Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson) and a guard (Landon Dickerson). In all, they are spending more than $213 million in cash on their offense this year, making the Philadelphia offense the most expensive in NFL history.

While the Eagles aren’t spending as much on the defensive side of the ball, general manager Howie Roseman & Co. still have meaningful commitments there. They handed edge rusher Bryce Huff a big contract this offseason, and Josh Sweat is also on a significant deal. They retained Darius Slay and re-signed James Bradberry at cornerback last offseason, then brought back C.J. Gardner-Johnson on a multiyear deal this spring. I’d expect Slay and Bradberry to move on after the season after Philly used its top two draft picks on cornerbacks, but for one year, it was able to pay just about everybody on offense and a few key pieces on defense, too.

One reason why the Eagles were able to do that? Draft picks. After several trades with the Dolphins and Saints, they stocked up on the defensive side of the ball. They have three first-rounders in their defensive line rotation in former Georgia products Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and Nolan Smith. They just added Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean with two top-40 picks in the secondary. We still have to see how some of those picks pan out, but on paper, the Eagles are preparing for a universe in which they’re cheaper but still have some promise on defense.

The 49ers made what might be the best draft pick since Mahomes when they landed Purdy, but it’s not going to be as easy for them to build through the draft. One of the biggest mistakes of the Lynch-Shanahan era might be the thing that keeps them from winning a Super Bowl with Purdy on a rookie deal.

The ticking time bomb on the 49ers roster

I don’t fault the 49ers for trading three first-round picks to move up in the 2021 draft with the hopes of landing a franchise quarterback in Lance. It was clear Garoppolo limited what they could do on offense, and taking a swing on a passer with a rookie deal made a lot of sense given what they wanted to commit financially elsewhere on their roster. I’ve written a lot about Lance and what went wrong in San Francisco, but at the end of the day, that deal turned out to be disappointing.

On one hand, as 49ers fans have pointed out, the impact of missing on Lance was mitigated by landing on Purdy in Round 7 of the draft the following year. It’s certainly true that San Francisco would be in much worse shape if it hadn’t landed Purdy, but that also ignores the players who would be on the roster if the team had simply not traded those first-round picks to move up for a quarterback who started four games for them before being dealt away.

Those picks turned out to be very valuable players from several different angles. From Miami’s perspective, the three first-rounders it landed stocked its roster. While the Dolphins made several other trades after the 49ers deal, the picks they landed from San Francisco directly led to Waddle, Hill and Bradley Chubb becoming members of the organization. The 49ers probably wouldn’t have traded two of those first-rounders for veterans, and they also probably wouldn’t have acquired two wide receivers with those picks, but those are three star players who ended up on Miami’s roster as a result of the Lance deal.

The Dolphins sent those first-rounders away in various trades, and the teams that landed the picks also came away with significant additions. The Eagles moved down from No. 6 to No. 12 and then back up to No. 10 in the 2021 draft and eventually selected DeVonta Smith. The Chiefs used the first-rounder they got for Hill to move up and take cornerback Trent McDuffie, who starred each of the past two postseasons. The Broncos came up with a creative use of the first-rounder they got for Chubb, sending it to the Saints in return for the rights to coach Sean Payton. San Francisco might not have directly wanted Smith, McDuffie and Payton, but you get the idea.

If the Niners had just stayed put, landed the same draft picks and simply taken whoever came off the board at that spot, the results would have been more mixed. Guard Cole Strange, a 2022 first-rounder, hasn’t been great at guard for the Patriots, while 2023 first-rounder Bryan Bresee didn’t do much in his rookie season with the Saints along the defensive line. In 2021, though, the player chosen with the No. 12 overall pick was Micah Parsons. And yes, that means in a slightly different universe, the 49ers would be lining up Nick Bosa and Parsons on the same defensive line. Is that alone enough to push a Super Bowl their way over the ensuing three campaigns?

The 49ers also sent second-, third- and fourth-round picks to the Panthers in a much more successful deal for McCaffrey, also costing them additional draft capital in the process. While they’ve earned a series of midround picks as compensation for executives joining other franchises, they have been way below league average in terms of draft capital and return between 2021 and 2023.

We can’t envision exactly what a San Francisco team would look like had it held onto those picks, but we can see the impact of how it forces the franchise to spend elsewhere. Instead of having a second pass rusher to play alongside Bosa, when Javon Kinlaw struggled early in his career, the 49ers spent big to add Hargrave in free agency. Wanting a second edge rusher, they traded for Chase Young at the deadline last October. This offseason, they signed Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos. Those two deals aren’t huge, but they don’t offer guaranteed production and come at a combined $19 million per season, much more than what even the top rookies get paid per year on their deals.

A lack of depth haunted the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Guard Jon Feliciano, a low-cost addition to help fill a starting spot on the roster, got injured during the game. He was replaced by fourth-round pick Spencer Burford, who blew a block on a key third down late in the game to end a drive. When Greenlaw tore his Achilles while running onto the field, the backup was Oren Burks, who allowed nine catches on the nine targets in his direction. With third-year corner Ambry Thomas struggling in the playoffs, they benched him and used veteran safety Logan Ryan, signed in December, as a nickel defender. Ryan was the closest defender to Mecole Hardman on the winning touchdown catch that ended the contest.

If the 49ers have those three first-round picks, are they using them on guards, off-ball linebackers and slot corners? Maybe not. By being able to use those selections on other positions, though, they would have been able to spend more money on backups or trade down and acquire additional selections. Every team is going to rely on a low-cost veteran here or there — the Chiefs got great production out of Mike Pennel in the Super Bowl — but the weak points on the San Francisco roster came back to bite the team in the biggest moments of its season.

Those issues aren’t going away. The players the 49ers could have drafted with those picks would be entering the primes of their respective careers, and it’s only going to get more expensive to replace them. As they prepare for a universe in which Purdy is very well compensated, it’s only going to be even more difficult for them to account for their missing picks by spreading money elsewhere around the roster. They have had exploitable weaknesses with a quarterback making peanuts; how can they make it work when their quarterback is making $65 million a year?

Could the 49ers instead move on from and trade Purdy?

One solution would be to employ a quarterback who isn’t making $65 million per season, but it would take a nearly unprecedented leap of faith from the 49ers.

Let’s go back to 2018. Inspired by a reader suggestion, I wrote an article about how teams that spent significant money to surround their quarterbacks on rookie contracts with talent could deal with that player’s inevitable raise by changing the quarterback as opposed to the talent. Replacing the passer with another QB on a rookie deal would allow a team to continue spending heavily on receivers and offensive linemen, enjoying the fruits of the NFL’s most popular philosophy.

That would also require a team to take on the risk of replacing its already successful incumbent at one of the most important positions in sports. I didn’t come to the conclusion this was the right idea, a likely path a team should take or something I would ever believe a team would be brave enough to attempt, but it’s at least a path worth discussing.

The team that came up most often in that 2018 article was the Rams, and the team wasn’t happy about the idea of Goff being a “system quarterback.” (He wasn’t and isn’t.) The night the article was published, Goff produced what might still be his best game as a pro: He threw for 465 yards with five touchdowns and a perfect passer rating in a win over the Vikings. Five months later, he had the Rams in the Super Bowl. That offseason, L.A. executive Kevin Demoff told a panel at the Sloan Sports Conference that my “goal in life was to get Jared Goff traded.”

And then two years after that, Sean McVay suddenly grew sick of Goff’s limitations. The Rams started John Wolford over Goff (who was returning from a finger injury but healthy enough to be on the active roster) in a playoff game over the Seahawks, only for Goff to lead the team to a victory when Wolford went down. After the season, the Rams traded Goff to the Lions as salary ballast in a massive trade for Matthew Stafford. L.A. promptly won a Super Bowl.

Now, the Rams didn’t do what I suggested in that column. They signed Goff to an extension before changing their minds about him, and when they traded him, they acquired another passer on a veteran deal. The argument about quarterbacks on rookie deals still applies, though: What’s appealing at a huge discount might not be quite as desirable when a team is paying the market price. Paying a lot of money for a quarterback, even when he’s great, eventually requires a team to make cutbacks elsewhere. The Rams won a Super Bowl with Stafford, but they had to clear the books beyond their top three stars after the 2022 season and start over.

Before I go any further, I’ll be very clear. I don’t think the 49ers should trade Purdy, even as he’s about to get more expensive. I don’t think they will. I don’t think they’ll even have a serious conversation about doing so. Shanahan and Lynch, especially after whiffing on Lance, likely will feel more confident about their abilities to find solutions at running back, wide receiver, left tackle and edge rusher than they will at landing another Purdy for peanuts.

With that being said, if there was ever an example of a team that was able to get by as they moved on from an expensive, middling quarterback to one who was less-heralded but cheaper, wouldn’t it be these 49ers? Garoppolo’s injury woes and limited ceiling didn’t make him a value on his extension with the 49ers, and while it would have been crazy for them to move on from Garoppolo and start a seventh-round pick as a plan, that’s how things have worked in practice.

I can hear what you’re saying, and you’re right: The 49ers can’t just draft another quarterback in Round 7 and expect to land the second coming of Purdy. I agree. That’s true of every spot on their roster: They can’t expect to trade Aiyuk and assume Pearsall will step in as a ready-made replacement. The idea of letting Purdy leave for nothing and replacing him with the 15th-best quarterback in the draft is foolish.

That’s not the path espoused in that article from 2018, though. If the 49ers decided they wanted to move on from Purdy, they would presumably be able to trade him for some meaningful amount of draft capital. There would be franchises skeptical of San Francisco moving on from a guy who looks like an elite quarterback and worry he’s a Shanahan-fed creation, but what would Purdy fetch on the trade market if the franchise wanted to deal him next year? In a league desperate for great quarterback play inside the pocket, wouldn’t a team in the top 10 be willing to trade its first-round pick and more for a 25-year-old Purdy?

Those picks would replenish some of the missing draft capital from the Lance and McCaffrey trades and give the 49ers significant ammunition to land a quarterback to replace Purdy in the draft. No quarterback is a sure thing, but if there’s a guy in the top 20 Shanahan feels confident about adding to the roster, they would be in position to land that quarterback with the capital they would get. We know Shanahan wanted to take a bigger swing on a higher-upside quarterback when he traded for Lance; could he rekindle that interest if they move on from Purdy?

The comparison isn’t between Purdy and another seventh-round pick. If we assume a team gets a significant return for Purdy, the calculus is entirely different. Let’s assume first- and second-round picks. It’s between Purdy and a first-round pick, wherever the team drafts the replacement for Purdy and about $60 million more to work with around its roster. As an example from this offseason, it could be the difference between Purdy and Bo Nix, Christian Wilkins, Stefon Diggs and Xavier McKinney.

The 49ers could use a first-round pick on a quarterback. Hell, they could draft three quarterbacks to try to replace Purdy. They could keep the big four playmakers around for another three years without sacrificing the rest of the roster. Lynch could continue to add big-ticket free agents on the defensive side of the ball to surround Bosa and Fred Warner. As we’ve seen during the Purdy era, having a bargain at quarterback allows teams to spend where needed in multiple spots across the roster.

And while moving on from Purdy would feel like an impossibly risky proposition, how many teams have signed quarterbacks who weren’t Hall of Fame-caliber players to a second contract in the slotted draft era and felt good about the decision years later? The Rams moved on from Goff less than two years after signing him to his extension. The Eagles traded Carson Wentz on the same timeframe. The Dolphins salary-dumped Ryan Tannehill on the Titans. Russell Wilson played well, but he never made it back to the conference title game after signing his extension with the Seahawks. Andy Dalton didn’t get to a championship game. Stafford didn’t win a playoff game on his second deal before being sent to the Rams. Derek Carr never won a playoff game with the Raiders before they cut him in advance of his third deal becoming guaranteed.

It’s tough to look at the second contracts for Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson given the unique circumstances around each player, but none of those three players was as impactful on their second contract as they were on their rookie deals. The only clear victories from those deals in terms of players who weren’t perennial MVP candidates are Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, both of whom won MVP awards and NFC titles in their best seasons.

Knowing whether a player fits into that category or the tier of true superstars (guys like Mahomes and Allen) isn’t as easy as I’m making it out to seem, and it’s entirely possible Purdy is on that Hall of Fame track given how he has played through two seasons. Personally, as I mentioned earlier, I would be terrified of trading him and would find other ways to make my roster construction work. At the same time, it’s clear the optimal NFL roster construction is to have a good quarterback on a rookie deal and surround him with as much talent as possible. Purdy proves it’s both easier to find that quarterback than you might think and tougher to replace him once he succeeds.

SEATTLE

S JULIAN LOVE has received an extension from the Seahawks.  Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Seahawks and Pro Bowl safety Julian Love have agreed to a three-year extension worth up to $36 million, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

Love, 26, signed a two-year, $12 million deal as a free agent in 2023 and earned Pro Bowl honors despite sharing snaps with Jamal Adams. Love played 79 percent of the defensive plays and finished second on the team in tackles with 183 and led the Seahawks with four interceptions.

The Seahawks released Adams and Quandre Diggs in March and signed Rayshawn Jenkins to pair with Love.

The Giants made Love a fourth-round pick in 2019, and he spent his first four seasons in New York. He has 414 tackles, nine interceptions, 28 passes defensed and four forced fumbles in five seasons.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

QB LAMAR JACKSON returns to practice, then departs.  Jamison Hensley ofESPN.com:

Lamar Jackson made his training camp debut Wednesday, but the NFL’s reigning Most Valuable Player lasted only an hour.

After missing the first three days of Ravens training camp, Jackson left the field midway through Wednesday’s workout. He looked weary while walking across the field and into the team facility, and he was not feeling well, according to a source.

Jackson didn’t look like himself in his first practice back. He split snaps with backup Josh Johnson, throwing one completion in team drills and one interception. He was picked off by Marlon Humphrey on an overthrown pass.

“We are going to work him back in, for sure,” Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken said with a smile. “I know I’m being kind of a smartass. You’ll have to ask him how he feels. But he was great in meetings. When we were on the field at the start [of practice], he said he was feeling good.”

The Ravens have had to deal with Jackson being ill in the past. Jackson has missed at least one practice in each of his seven NFL seasons due to being sick.

Monken said the offense isn’t playing catch-up without Jackson.

“We had all offseason, and Lamar was part of that,” Monken said. “It’s great having him back today, but I don’t feel behind. We didn’t stop. We are still going through the install.”

The Ravens have their first off day of camp Thursday.

PITTSBURGH

Mike Tomlin says “nothing has changed” at the QB position, but won’t get into promising any specific number of reps with the first team.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

During the offseason, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said that Russell Wilson has the “pole position” over Justin Fields when it came to who will be the starting quarterback in Week One of the regular season.

The current status of the quarterback depth chart came up when Tomlin held a press conference from training camp on Wednesday, but anyone looking for a different answer was left disappointed. Tomlin said that “nothing has changed” since his previous comments and then answered another question about how the first-team reps would be divvied up between the two quarterbacks.

“Very carefully,” Tomlin said. “You think I’m actually going to back myself into a corner so you guys are gonna ask me daily about the rep allocations? No way. I’ve been on the job too long for that.”

There will be plenty of eyes counting the reps for each player and those totals should make it clear whether Fields has a real shot to overtake Wilson before Week One. If he doesn’t, it will be Wilson’s job to lose in Pittsburgh this fall.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

In his 32 to 1 preview series, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com puts the Bills at #6 (which seems a bit high to the DB – especially after he gives a “D” to Buffalo’s offseason):

Josh Allen sat in full uniform as he met with the media after the Buffalo Bills were eliminated from the playoffs, again, by the Kansas City Chiefs. Allen’s eyes mostly looked down. His answers were short, which was understandable given the situation.

For all of the excitement over forcing the Chiefs to travel to Buffalo for a playoff game, after the Bills rallied late in the season to win the AFC East, it was just another brutal loss that led to a long offseason. Allen had no answers.

“Losing sucks,” Allen said. “I don’t know what else to say.”

It’s tough to win a Super Bowl, especially as Patrick Mahomes hoards them. The Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL over the past five seasons, posting double-digit wins each year. With an electrifying quarterback like Allen it seemed inevitable that Buffalo would find itself in a Super Bowl. It could still happen, but the pressure is mounting with each missed opportunity. That’s why Allen seemed so forlorn after that loss to the Chiefs.

The vibes didn’t get better when the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Logically it made sense. Diggs’ contract was large, his production was slipping, he’s in his 30s and was becoming increasingly difficult for the Bills to deal with. Still, trading a player who made four Pro Bowls in four seasons for Buffalo doesn’t seem to get the Bills closer to that elusive Super Bowl. It also didn’t help that the Bills said goodbye to multiple veterans who were a big part of their success over the past few seasons but became too expensive to retain. The moves led to more proclamations of doom and discussions about Super Bowl windows in Buffalo.

Maybe the negativity has been overdone. Realistically the Bills are still a top team even without Diggs, who wasn’t a huge factor after a midseason offensive coordinator change. Buffalo has a strong defense and Allen will make the offense dangerous no matter who he’s throwing to. Buffalo won five games in a row to save its season, then soundly beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a wild-card playoff game. Had Tyler Bass’ potential game-tying kick against the Chiefs not gone wide right, perhaps the Bills would have gone on to win and everything would feel different this offseason.

At some point a deeper playoff run needs to happen, or these Bills will go in the same category as the Air Coryell San Diego Chargers of the 1980s, the Randy Moss-led Minnesota Vikings, the mid 2000s Chargers or the Cleveland Browns of the 1980s. We remember those teams but mostly for lost opportunities. That story isn’t written for these Bills yet but they have to fear that possibility.

As long as Allen is the Bills’ quarterback, it will be Super Bowl or else every season for Buffalo. Even in what seems like a transition year following the Diggs trade.

Offseason grade

Stefon Diggs wasn’t a huge factor for the Bills most of last season. Diggs had just 636 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo’s last 13 games, counting playoffs. Maybe trading him to the Texans won’t hurt as much as it would appear. Still, it’s hard to replace him. The Bills will try with second-round draft pick Keon Coleman. They traded back a couple times before taking Coleman and will be second-guessed if someone they passed on, perhaps Xavier Worthy, becomes a star and Coleman doesn’t. Buffalo also signed Curtis Samuel to help at receiver. There wasn’t a ton of salary-cap space for big moves and some veterans like center Mike Morse, receiver Gabe Davis, safety Jordan Poyer, cornerback Tre’Davious White, pass rusher Leonard Floyd and linebacker Tyrel Dodson were either cut or not re-signed as free agents. Many of the veterans who won’t return were aging and expensive, and it made sense to move on, but it still affects depth and contributed to the feeling that the Bills might be taking a step back this season. The Bills did well to extend key players like offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones and defensive end A.J. Epenesa, but it’s hard to say the roster is better than last season.

Grade: D

Quarterback report

The concern with the Bills and Josh Allen has been that the team hasn’t done enough to get him help. It’s arguable no QB has more of the offense on his shoulders than Allen and that has led to some high turnover numbers. Allen had 18 interceptions last season. That issue might get worse with the Bills trading Stefon Diggs, who made four Pro Bowls in four seasons with Buffalo.

The Bills will try to replace Diggs’ production with second-round rookie Keon Coleman, free-agent addition Curtis Samuel, holdover Khalil Shakir, second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook, who is coming off a strong season. Coleman is a big contested-catch receiver, Samuel can do a bit of everything and has never played with a quarterback nearly as good as Allen, and Shakir was efficient in a limited role last season. The key could be Kincaid, who was a first-round draft pick last year and had 673 yards. It doesn’t seem like there will be a true No. 1 option for Allen, but perhaps the entire group can be productive, take some pressure off him and make sure he’s not pressing and turning it over too often.

BetMGM odds breakdown

The Bills are tied for seventh in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds at +1500, which is a bit of a drop from the past few seasons. The Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens have shorter Super Bowl odds among AFC teams, and Buffalo is tied with the Texans. That dip doesn’t align with the fact that Josh Allen is tied for second in the MVP odds at +900, just behind Patrick Mahomes. The Bills are still the AFC East favorites at +165 odds and their win total is a healthy 10.5. So oddsmakers don’t believe the Bills will fall too far, but the odds say they’re a little further from a Super Bowl than in past seasons with Allen.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out of town, fantasy managers are scrambling to decipher which Buffalo receivers will benefit from all the vacated targets. But maybe the right answer is tight end Dalton Kincaid. His rookie season was partially screened by what Sam LaPorta did in Detroit, but let’s acknowledge the historical significance of Kincaid’s debut. His 73 receptions were fourth-most from a first-year tight end, and his 673 yards slot him ninth among all-time rookies at the position.

“Kincaid didn’t get a boost from touchdowns, scoring just three in all (one in the playoffs). But note those scores all came from distance — 22, 22 and 29 yards. Give Kincaid better luck around the goal line and a bump in target share and you might be looking at a breakout season. He’s certainly no giveaway at the current market price — his Yahoo ADP is settling around 60 — but Kincaid’s upside still might be worth chasing.”

Stat to remember

The Bills’ offense wasn’t really that much more effective or efficient after it fired Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator and hired Joe Brady. For the first 10 games they averaged 26.2 points and 370.1 total yards. After firing Dorsey, from Week 11 to the end of the postseason, the Bills averaged 27.1 points and 377.9 total yards. What did change was the rushing game. The Bills went from 116.5 rushing yards per game under Dorsey to 156.4 with Brady. Rushing attempts spiked from 25.4 to 36.8. Part of that was the Bills were winning more, and teams that win tend to run more at the end of games. But it seems there was a bit of a philosophical shift.

The offense was still heavily reliant on Josh Allen (part of the improvement in the run game was more running from Allen), but there was balance. James Cook had a productive season with 1,122 rushing yards and 445 receiving yards. He ranked eighth among running backs in Next Gen Stats’ RYOE (rush yards over expected), which uses tracking data to determine how many yards a running back gets relative to an average back. The offense will revolve around Allen, but Brady showed a way to take some pressure off the quarterback.

Burning question

Will the Bills get anything out of Von Miller?

Miller played 12 games last season and had three tackles and no sacks. That seems impossible for a Hall of Fame talent. Miller got a six-year, $120 million deal in the 2022 offseason to help get the Bills to a Super Bowl. Miller tore his ACL on Thanksgiving of that first season in Buffalo and the injury seemed to linger for all of 2023. Miller told SI.com this offseason he’s “a little bit angry” people are judging him based off last season, when he rushed back.

“It’s crazy how you get injured, and you come back, and you really shouldn’t have even been playing, and people judge you by a product on the field,” Miller told SI.com. “I could have easily sat out all of last season, but I couldn’t do my teammates like that. I felt like being later in my career, I didn’t want to sacrifice any of my years. But at the same time, I shouldn’t have been out there.”

The issue is that Miller is no sure thing to rebound in 2024. He’s 35 years old, and not many pass rushers are still effective at that age. In a perfect world Miller would be the dominant player the Bills are paying him to be because that would have a huge impact on a defense that doesn’t have a lot of big stars. But it’s a big question mark heading into this season.

Best-case scenario

The Bills have been a popular Super Bowl pick the past few seasons, and their failure to live up to that might be a reason the buzz is gone this year. But the Bills still have the ability to win a championship. Trading Stefon Diggs changes the offense, but it was already changing last season after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced with Joe Brady. There was a lot to like about the Bills despite their up-and-down season. They still have an effective offense due to Josh Allen and the defense survived and played pretty well through key injuries. The Bills lost a lot of recognizable names this offseason but none of them were irreplaceable. Allen has been in the MVP conversation for years and hasn’t won, but he could win it this season with multiple weapons replacing Diggs and Buffalo winning a tough AFC East. And if the Bills can win the division, maybe they can finish the job and make a Super Bowl.

Nightmare scenario

It’s hard to imagine the Bills not making the playoffs. But with the AFC East having a couple of strong contenders in the Jets and Dolphins, a division title isn’t guaranteed and competition for wild-card spots will be fierce. The Bills at one point last season were less than 15% to make the playoffs in some models, so maybe missing the playoffs isn’t too outlandish. The Bills could struggle if the offense doesn’t have enough star power around Josh Allen. Any offense whose top skill-position player might be Dalton Kincaid, James Cook or Keon Coleman could be inconsistent no matter who the quarterback is. The Bills lost a lot this offseason, and it’s also possible the hangover from another crushing playoff loss affects them. Maybe the Bills miss the playoffs, and at that point head coach Sean McDermott’s job security would be a big issue.

The crystal ball says

Like mostly everyone else, I was down on the Bills early in the offseason. The Stefon Diggs trade seemed like a concession that this would be a transition season, especially coupled with the salary cap-related moves to dump some veterans. But when you dig into the Bills, here’s what is revealed: This was a very good team that took on some strange and unlucky losses early, and then played to its talent level late in the season to win the AFC East. The Bills lost to the Chiefs in the playoffs and while that was a major disappointment, they won’t be the first or last team to lose to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City in the postseason. This is still a very good team with a superstar quarterback in Josh Allen. Diggs and his constant drama might have been doing more harm than good. I’m not sure the Bills win the AFC East, but that’s because of the competition in the division rather than Buffalo taking a big step back. I don’t think the Bills win a Super Bowl this season, but they won’t slip far and will be among the contenders again in 2025.

NEW YORK JETS

Aaron Rodgers explains why he went to Egypt for a cost of $50,000+ in Jets fines.  Jason Owens of YahooSports.com:

After missing mandatory minicamp for a trip to Egypt, Aaron Rodgers is present and on time for New York Jets training camp.

The Jets quarterback spoke with the reporters on Wednesday for the first time since missing minicamp and revealing in a podcast interview Monday that he missed it for a trip to Egypt. He explained on Wednesday that the situation was the product of schedule confusion on his part.

“I originally scheduled it based on the previous year’s schedule, which had us out, I believe, by the 9th or 10th,” Rodgers said. “Once I saw the schedule, I started to move some things around. It just didn’t happen.”

He reiterated that visiting Egypt was a “bucket list” trip, a statement he made on the “Pardon My Take” podcast Monday.

“Back in the doldrums of the rehab, I thought it would be fun to put together a trip with some friends,” Rodgers continued. “We wanted to plan it, kind of, middle of June. Looked at the previous year’s schedule and felt like I was gonna be safe.”

The two-day minicamp that Rodgers missed in June is mandatory, per the collective bargaining agreement. Rodgers downplayed its importance on Wednesday and likened it to voluntary OTAs.

“They’re OTA days,” Rodgers said. “They happen to be labeled as minicamp. It’s not the same as it was in 2005 or 2010. The schedule is an OTA day. It’s labeled as minicamp so you can and get anybody who hasn’t been around to be there.”

Rodgers also confirmed that he was fined by the team. He declined to say how much, just that it was “a little more” than $50,000.

Rodgers’ absence became a story when Jets head coach Robert Saleh announced to reporters on June 11 that it was unexcused. Rodgers is entering his second season with the Jets after missing all but the opening drive of his first season in New York with a torn Achilles tendon.

Saleh said the next day that there were no issues between him and Rodgers and that the two are “on the exact same page.”

“Aaron and I are on the exact same page,” Saleh told reporters on June 12. “There’s no issue between Aaron, or his teammates for that matter. We addressed it yesterday; it’s more of an issue for everyone outside of the building than it is inside. That’s about it.”

Rodgers reiterated that point on Wednesday.

“I had a great talk with Robert,” Rodgers said. “Obviously, he wanted me to be there. I knew the consequences if I wasn’t gonna be there. The reaction is what it is.”