NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

QB AARON RODGERS is the bane of some media types and there are plenty of conflicting thoughts about him, some fueled by his own quotes.  But one thing that has been pretty consistent is that he has treated QB JORDAN LOVE, his successor, admirably.  Eric Edholm of NFL.com:

Jordan Love received some valuable advice on how best to follow in the footsteps of Aaron Rodgers as the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback – from Rodgers himself.

Love said Rodgers hit him up Tuesday night and told him to be Jordan Love, not to try to be Aaron Rodgers.

“Aaron reached out to me last night and that’s exactly what he said,” Love said to reporters Wednesday. “He said just be yourself, have fun, enjoy it. It’s obviously my time now, and he just said, you know, be yourself. I mean, that’s all you can do.”

Interestingly, Love has received similar advice from others around him.

“That’s kind of been the message from everybody, is be yourself,” Love said. “Don’t try to be anybody else. Don’t try to be Aaron. Things like that. Just be yourself, and that’s what I’m trying to do.”

One way in which Love could be different than Rodgers initially is his preseason usage. Rodgers last appeared in a preseason game for the Packers in 2018, when he attempted four passes in the second of Green Bay’s four preseason games that year. (There were no preseason games in the COVID-affected 2020 season, but there were four in 2019 and three apiece the past two preseasons.)

The Packers are expected to veer from that strategy with Love given that he has one career start and 83 regular-season pass attempts in his three NFL seasons. Although the Packers are weighing the risk of playing Love too much in the preseason, they also know he needs the reps now that he has been anointed the team’s starter. They have three preseason games this year but also two sets of joint practices, with the Patriots and Bengals.

Rodgers was traded to the Jets in April in an exchange of draft picks. It remains to be seen how much New York plays Rodgers this preseason given his newness to the team, even if he’s joined there by several former Green Bay teammates and will be running the offense of coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, with whom Rodgers was close years back in Green Bay.

It could prove interesting how the Jets handle the 39-year-old Rodgers’ workload with four preseason games, starting with the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 3 against the Browns. But if Rodgers takes his own advice about being himself, given how little he’s played in the preseason in recent years, he might pass.

This from about a month ago:

One of the things he asked Love was about what his relationship with Rodgers is like now that the future Hall of Famer has been traded. Love responded:

“We’ve talked since the trade happened. He’s a busy man, so we’re not talking all the time, but it was a good conversation, both wishing each other luck. I think it was important, us staying in contact, staying together. He let me know if I ever need anything, he’s there for me, his phone is open, I can ask. But pretty much wished each other luck going forward.”

Zach Ragan of AtoZSports.com had this back in May:

As for Rodgers’ relationship with Love, the former Packer made it clear that he likes his successor.

“I like Jordan a lot,” said Rodgers. “Jordan’s a good dude. It’s tough to be a backup behind a future Hall of Famer. You’ve got to kinda find that sweet spot. I thought he did a great job with that, but he’s a good-hearted kid. It’s undetermined, his future, but from the physical standpoint, I thought he improved his fundamentals this last year.”

NFC EAST

WASHINGTON

The Commanders have quietly made QB SAM HOWELL the favorite for their starting QB as a second-year player despite his poor draft position.  Eric Edholm of NFL.com:

Sam Howell has a message for those who doubt his and his team’s chances this season: Do so at your own risk.

Howell, who is competing for the Washington Commanders’ starting QB job with Jacoby Brissett, said on Wednesday he believes people are overlooking his chances to succeed based on his draft pedigree (he was picked in Round 5 of the 2022 draft) and lack of experience (one start as a rookie).

“I know some people might think it’s crazy, just because of how the draft went and I hardly played at all last year, but for me it doesn’t really change anything for me,” Howell said. “I know the type of player that I can be in this league, and I feel like I’ve worked very hard and put myself in this position to go out there and succeed.

“So I (couldn’t) really care less about what other people say. It’s really about what I hear in this building and what I hear internally.”

One thing Howell is hearing at the team’s facility is some familiar offensive concepts. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is bringing with him a playbook chock full of run-pass option calls, something Howell did a lot of in college at North Carolina but which was not a major part of Commanders OC Scott Turner’s offense last year.

“Yeah, RPOs, man, that’s pretty much all we did in college,” Howell said. “So all of our run-game stuff in college was RPO stuff, and last year’s offense wasn’t near as much of that. But in (Bieniemy’s) offense there is a lot of RPO stuff and a lot of stuff that I’m very familiar with — similar concepts, some of the exact same concepts that we ran at UNC.

“So I’m very confident in my RPO game, and I’m excited to have the ability to do that, because I love that type of stuff and I think you can really make defenses wrong in the run game when you have the RPO ability, so I’m excited that EB’s kinda brought that stuff over to us.”

Head coach Ron Rivera has yet to officially anoint a starting quarterback, saying he likes having a competition there, even if at least one of the Commanders’ receivers believes Howell eventually will win the job.

Howell also said he believes he has “total command of the offense” and has “made a lot of strides” while learning Bieniemy’s system, crediting QB coach Ken Zampese for the extra time he spent with Howell behind the scenes last season.

“I was with (Zampese) all last year, and he spent extra time with me, before practice, after practice, getting extra reps and really working on my feet, so it’s a credit to him,” Howell said. “And in the offseason I just tried to do the same stuff, and I feel like I’ve gotten a lot better, and I feel very comfortable with where I’m at.”

The Commanders have three preseason games and joint practice sessions with the Baltimore Ravens to figure out who will start Week 1, when they take on the Arizona Cardinals. Howell said he’ll make the most of his chances to win the job but knows that the clock is ticking.

“It’s definitely a blessing for me to be in this opportunity I’m in, and it’s definitely not something that I take for granted,” he said. “But at the same time I think there’s a lot of work still to be done. I’m not complacent at all, I know still everything is ahead of me and I’ve got to go out there and earn it and prove it each and every day, so I’m going to continue to do that.”

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com with an update on QB KYLER MURRAY:

The Cardinals placed Kyler Murray on the active/physically unable to perform list Wednesday. The move was not a surprise given the quarterback underwent reconstructive surgery on his right knee Jan. 3 to repair the anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus.

The question is: Will he begin the season on the reserve/PUP list, which would keep him out the first four games?

“He’s going good,” coach Jonathan Gannon said Wednesday, via Darren Urban of the team website. “He started on PUP, and he’s progressing. I love the plan we have moving forward. He did an excellent job this summer. It’s an injury that kind of goes [up and down]. He has really good days; he has bad days too, just like anybody else who has had this.”

Murray and the team have not put timetables on the quarterback’s return, but the two-time Pro Bowler allowed earlier this month that Week 1 was his goal. That is a long shot, realistically.

Gannon said Wednesday Murray will be ready “when he tells me.”

Murray completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 2,368 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2022. He also rushed for 418 yards and three scores in 11 starts.

Colt McCoy is expected to start as long as Murray is out with David Blough, Jeff Driskel, and 2023 fifth-round draft pick Clayton Tune behind him.

SAN FRANCISCO

As he counts up in his previews, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com puts the 49ers at #5:

Quarterback matters above everything else in the NFL. This idea is reinforced constantly.

QBs have won 15 of the last 16 NFL MVP awards. The top nine highest-paid players in the NFL, in terms of annual value in their contracts, are quarterbacks. We all know that quarterbacks are on another tier from all other players, in terms of fame, money, importance or whatever other measure you prefer.

That’s what makes the San Francisco 49ers so unusual.

We’re ignoring that the 49ers came to training camp not knowing who their quarterback would be Week 1, or that none of the options are too enticing (unless you are sold on Brock Purdy … we’ll discuss that). At the start of camp Purdy was cleared to practice “without restrictions” as GM John Lynch said, then it was announced he’d be on a pitch count and wouldn’t practice three days in a row … which are restrictions.

It seems Purdy is on track to start the opener, though the 49ers can’t be certain how he’ll perform after elbow surgery. The 49ers had the highest win total in the NFC at BetMGM to begin this offseason, they’re one of five teams whose Super Bowl odds are shorter than 10-to-1, and among the top teams in the NFL they have the most uncertainty by far at QB1. Not that anyone seems worried.

“I get how everyone wants something set in stone, but it’s not set in stone,” coach Kyle Shanahan said before the start of training camp, via NBC Sports Bay Area. “But I love the options, and I love the experience that Brock got.

“I love that Trey [Lance] has gotten some, too. And I love the ability that we have in the room. And besides those three, I love our team around them, so let’s let it play out.”

Purdy being cleared for practice without restrictions (but with restrictions) does seem to eliminate a competition in camp. Purdy will be the starter if he’s healthy. That doesn’t mean there aren’t any questions about him.

Purdy had a very good run at the end of last season and was an awesome story. He was Mr. Irrelevant in last year’s draft, was forced into action when Jimmy Garoppolo got injured, and the 49ers won all five of his regular-season starts. The 49ers won Purdy’s first two playoff starts as well. He wasn’t just along for the ride either; Purdy played very well in those games. But it’s still a small sample size for a player who was passed over 261 times in the 2022 NFL draft. And now it’s complicated by Purdy coming back from a major elbow surgery that is rare for NFL quarterbacks. It’s hard to know how surgery will affect Purdy’s throwing. Maybe Purdy is the next Tom Brady, but it seems like less than a sure thing.

The fact that nobody cares about the 49ers’ quarterback issues speaks to Shanahan and the overall roster. Shanahan got plenty out of Garoppolo, then when Garoppolo and Lance got hurt last season, Purdy was a revelation. Maybe the NFC championship game would have turned out differently if Purdy hadn’t injured his elbow when his arm was hit on a pass attempt in the first quarter. Most of NFL analysis revolves around bloviating about the quarterback situation, and yet the 49ers are exempt. We just assume Shanahan could turn anyone off the street into a top-end quarterback. There are almost no questions if Purdy will have a successful encore after 170 regular-season throws, only if he’ll be healthy.

Maybe QB doesn’t matter to the 49ers. The team around the QB is phenomenal. The 49ers had a great set of skill-position players before it traded for dynamic running back Christian McCaffrey. The defense, led by NFL Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, was the best in the NFL last season. The roster is even more impressive when you consider all the resources the 49ers apparently wasted moving up to get Lance.

If it were any other team with this quarterback situation, we’d have more concerns. With the 49ers, plenty of people believe they can be in a Super Bowl. If San Francisco gets even average QB play, maybe they’ll be right.

Offseason grade

The 49ers didn’t have a great offseason. The 49ers did manage to sign defensive tackle Javon Hargrave to a four-year, $84 million deal to make a scary defensive line even better. But San Francisco lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, pass rushers Samson Ebukam and Charles Omenihu, safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. Those players all got at least $6 million per season, and the six got deals worth a combined $219.25 million. Those aren’t insignificant losses. Neither is DeMeco Ryans, a fantastic defensive coordinator who is off to be the head coach of the Houston Texans. Ryans was replaced by Steve Wilks and while Wilks is a good coach, it’s still not a sure thing that the 49ers defense picks up where it left off with Ryans. The draft was mostly a zero due to the lack of picks from the Trey Lance and Christian McCaffrey trades. And the 49ers used one of their few picks on kicker Jake Moody, who was picked in the third round and became the highest drafted kicker since Roberto Aguayo since 2016. That’s an odd investment for a team that didn’t have a pick in the top 86 this year. The 49ers’ cumulative GPA from draft analysts was 1.79, by far the worst in the NFL as compiled by Football Outsiders. The 49ers might be great but aside from Hargrave, they didn’t add a lot of help this offseason.

Grade: D

Quarterback report

We should assume Brock Purdy will start Week 1, unless there’s a setback over the next month. But there are more questions than you’d like in late July, so let’s take a closer look at all three 49ers QBs …

Brock Purdy: There’s a difference between being able to play and being back to 100 percent. Torn UCLs are common for baseball pitchers but rare for NFL quarterbacks. Purdy had a complete tear of the UCL, and that doesn’t seem good for a quarterback who already wasn’t known for arm strength. There should also be some question over whether Purdy is the next Tom Brady/Kurt Warner/Tony Romo after a hot two-month stretch to end last season. That’s a small sample size.

Trey Lance: Lance has barely played in years. First it was a COVID-19 affected end to his college career at North Dakota State. He couldn’t beat Jimmy Garoppolo out as a rookie and then, after a bad Week 1 outing last season, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury that required at least two surgeries. Lance, somehow, has 68 fewer NFL passing attempts than Purdy. It’s hard for the 49ers to know what they have in him, though the talent that made him the third overall pick of the 2021 hasn’t evaporated.

Sam Darnold: Darnold failed quickly with the New York Jets, then didn’t do much with the Carolina Panthers. Darnold’s 55 interceptions in 56 games speaks to the problem. It’s possible he turns things completely around in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but we wouldn’t trust any other team with Darnold starting to be one of the best in the NFL.

BetMGM odds breakdown

The 49ers are +900 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM, +400 to win the NFC (the second favorite behind the Eagles), -165 to win the NFC West (tied for the shortest odds of any team to win their division) and their win total is about 11. I can’t sign off on any of those bets or the over on the win total (over 10.5 is -140 odds and over 11.5 is +125). The 49ers are good but I have more questions than most about them this season. As crazy as it sounds, +375 to miss the playoffs isn’t outrageous. We’ll discuss why in the “nightmare scenario” section.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “George Kittle and Brock Purdy went off on the league late last year, hooking up for seven touchdowns in their seven complete games together. But it’s probably wishcasting to expect something close to a repeat.

“Kittle is one of those all-out performers who invites plenty of injury — he’s missed multiple starts in four straight seasons — and of course Purdy is also coming off a major injury. And a bunch of those Kittle touchdowns were from sizable distances (39, 32, 28, 54, 34, and 33 yards); we love when those splash plays happen, but they’re not a repeatable business model, especially for a tight end. Kittle represents a cruel part of fantasy football — he’s more valuable in the real-life game than he is in our side enterprise.”

Stat to remember

From Christian McCaffrey’s second game with the 49ers — he got limited snaps the first game after joining the team following a blockbuster trade — through Week 17 he had 212.6 fantasy points in PPR leagues. No other running back scored more than 189 in that stretch. This isn’t the fantasy section but even if you don’t play fantasy it was easy to see the effect McCaffrey had on the 49ers offense. Even in an offense which has a lot of other talented players that command the ball, McCaffrey was dominant. He had 1,210 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in a little more than 10 games with the 49ers, then another 299 and three in the playoffs. Deebo Samuel was one of the NFL’s best non-quarterbacks two seasons ago, George Kittle has a reasonable argument as the NFL’s best all-around tight end, Brandon Aiyuk has been very good and it seems like he has a breakout season coming soon, but there’s no question the 49ers offense will revolve around the spectacular McCaffrey.

Burning question – Will the 49ers’ defense be No. 1 again?

Even though DeMeco Ryans was very good after taking over defensive coordinator duties from Robert Saleh, maybe losing him won’t be so bad. Steve Wilks has been a good coach for many years and is coming off a strong showing as the Carolina Panthers’ interim coach last season. And, the 49ers’ defensive foundation is set. Wilks isn’t going to change much. Why would he?

“I think it is a foundation that we all agree we wanted to keep,” Wilks said, according to the 49ers’ site. “I think it is an opportunity as we go through the process, which we already have, to try to tweak things a little bit. I still think there’s room for improvement.”

The 49ers will still rely on the defensive line to get pressure and play plenty of zone coverage behind it, with top linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw covering a lot of ground in the middle. The defensive line is scary with Nick Bosa on the edge and new addition Javon Hargrave providing an interior pass rush. The 49ers led the NFL in yards allowed and points allowed last season, and while nothing is guaranteed from year to year, it’s hard to believe San Francisco won’t be at least in the top five again.

Best-case scenario

Maybe Brock Purdy is the next Kurt Warner and his elbow injury is no big deal. If we figure on top 15 quarterback play from Purdy (or Lance or Darnold) this season, the 49ers can obviously win a Super Bowl. They were close last season before that disastrous luck in the NFC championship game. Any team with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga can do damage. No matter what you hear, you don’t need an elite QB to win big in the NFL if other pieces are in place. And the 49ers have enough other elite pieces to win a Super Bowl.

Nightmare scenario

Among 2022 NFL preseason power rankings, the Los Angeles Rams were the consensus No. 2 team, Tampa Bay Buccaneers were No. 3 (both were ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 4) and the Green Bay Packers were No. 5. The Rams and Packers didn’t make the playoffs and the 8-9 Buccaneers didn’t deserve to. At this time last year, it was inconceivable that any of those teams would finish under .500, yet they all did. The Baltimore Ravens were in the top five of many power rankings before the 2021 season and they missed the playoffs. In 2020, one of the consensus preseason top five (49ers) didn’t make the playoffs, and that happened in 2019 as well (Rams). Nobody believes right now the 49ers will have a bad season, and for logical reasons. They’re very good on paper. But what if Purdy doesn’t play well (due to his elbow or regression), injuries hit key players like Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have the magic beans to make any QB an instant star and the defense isn’t quite as good without DeMeco Ryans? The 49ers probably won’t be under .500. But it’s not like that never happens to highly touted preseason teams, and San Francisco does have some issues to resolve.

The crystal ball says …

This is difficult. The 49ers are stocked with stars and were on an absolute roll late last season. I think Kyle Shanahan is a good coach. I’m just concerned that, due to the quarterback situation and a pretty rough offseason, this might be the top five team that disappoints a bit this season. Yet, how can you possibly look at the 49ers’ roster as a whole and predict them to be mediocre? If the quarterback situation looks good early in the season, this could be the best team in football. I’ll be a little more skeptical until I see it and will probably pick the Seattle Seahawks as a surprise division winner, but I don’t think I could pick the 49ers to finish out of the playoff bracket. Though it consistently happens with some team in the preseason top five.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Sean McVay expounds on the Rams contention that no one ever thought about dumping Super Bowl-winning QB MATTHEW STAFFORD.  Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com:

The Los Angeles Rams were approached by other teams about quarterback Matthew Stafford in the offseason but were in “unanimous agreement” to keep him for at least another season, head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday.

After the Rams went through their first training camp practice at UC Irvine, McVay said he was thrilled to have a healthy Stafford on the field.

“There was a consistent and unanimous dialogue and understanding,” McVay said. “When that March deadline came in terms of him being due the bonus that he’s deserved and that he’s earned, we were all in unanimous agreement that we wanted him to be the quarterback.”

McVay added: “I know I can certainly speak for all of us and say we’re excited as hell about Matthew Stafford. It’s been great to see him feeling good, and I’m certainly really glad he’s our quarterback, and that’s where we’re at.”

Stafford, who signed a four-year, $160 million extension with Los Angeles in 2022, was asked if the Rams reached out to his agent about a possible restructuring or renegotiation of his contract. He indicated the Rams did but said he would keep “those kind of conversations in house.”

“I don’t know what the technical term of it is,” Stafford said. “But we had conversations on that kind of stuff and I’ll leave it at that.”

Stafford, who turned 35 in February, won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 2021 but missed the Rams’ final seven games last season after suffering a spinal cord contusion. The Rams finished 5-12 with injuries to star players such as Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

All three practiced on Wednesday.

“I feel a lot better,” Stafford said. “Physically, I feel really healthy compared to where I was at this point last year, so that’s fun for me. I was able to get the work in that I want to get in coming into this. And that makes it a whole lot more fun for me and just excited to be out here.”

Stafford said this is where he wants to be.

“I just know that I’m really happy playing for this team, playing for this coach and these fans,” Stafford said.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Sean Payton is amazed at how bad his predecessor was.  Jarrett Bell of USA TODAY with a bunch of juicy quotes:

Not one minute had passed from the moment Sean Payton welcomed a curious visitor into his office when the new Denver Broncos coach delivered a striking message.

“Can I say this to you?” Payton said, shuffling stuff on his desk.

Of course, you can. Let it rip.

“I’m going to be pissed off if this is not a playoff team,” Payton told USA TODAY Sports.

So there. A flag planted. For Year 1. Never mind that he’s signed up in a division ruled by Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Payton, 59, back from a one-year sabbatical from coaching, is the same upbeat, cocksure soul who generated so much success, including a Super Bowl crown, during 15 seasons with the New Orleans Saints.

Speak his mind? And expectations, too. Pressure be damned.

Payton remembers how quickly things came together when he took over the Saints in 2006 and guided the team to a division title in his first season.

“Winning,” he said softly. “It’s the salve for the whole organization. Makes everyone feel better.”

As Broncos veterans reported to training camp and ramped up for the first full-scale practice on Friday, Payton was clearly in the mood to talk standards and messages while aiming to prove that he can win big again in a different time and place.

“Hey, we are going to be on time,” he said. “We’re going to learn how rewarding it is to play for each other, compete for each other, rather than for ourselves. And I expect us to think playoffs.”

The Broncos, who haven’t had a winning campaign since 2016, surely need this culture change. The franchise with eight Super Bowl appearances in its history (and now six coaches in 10 years) became a laughingstock last season as it paired rookie coach Nathaniel Hackett (who lasted 15 games) with veteran quarterback Russell Wilson and produced an unmitigated disaster underscored by the NFL’s worst offense.

“It doesn’t happen often where an NFL team or organization gets embarrassed,” Payton said. “And that happened here. Part of it was their own fault, relative to spending so much (expletive) time trying to win the offseason – the PR, the pomp and circumstance, marching people around and all this stuff.

“We’re not doing any of that. The Jets did that this year. You watch. ‘Hard Knocks,’ all of it. I can see it coming. Remember when (former Washington owner) Dan Snyder put that Dream Team together? I was at the Giants (in 2000). I was a young coach. I thought, ‘How are we going to compete with them? Deion’s (Sanders) there now.’ That team won eight games or whatever. So, listen…just put the work in.”

The hunch here is that Payton could care less about making the Jets’ – or anybody’s – bulletin board.

There is enough scrutiny already attached. If Payton is going to spark the Broncos to a playoff berth in his first season, so much seemingly depends on a revived Wilson, who is coming off the worst season of his career. While Denver scored an NFL-low 16.9 points per game, Wilson posted career lows for TD passes (16) and passer rating (84.4). He also drew heat for faulty mechanics that contributed to some of the career-high 55 sacks he endured behind a suspect O-line.

“Man, we ran that kid through the car wash a hundred times now,” Payton said of Wilson and questions of how this coach-quarterback dynamic will play out. “But that’s a storyline, though. How is this going to look? How’s it going to work? You know what? We’re fixing to find out. As Bill would say.”

Payton chuckled, realizing that he echoed his mentor, Bill Parcells.

In any event, there may be no better barometer for Denver’s chances than Wilson, who signed a five-year, $245 million extension last year before taking a single snap in a Broncos uniform. Sure, it’s a team sport, and the Broncos have a solid defense that might be spectacular if it can generate a consistent pass rush. But quarterbacks are paid the big bucks for a reason. And big-money coaches – Payton was lured to Denver as the biggest prize during the coaching hiring cycle, commanding a five-year contract reportedly worth roughly $18 million per year – are paid to figure out quarterbacks.

What happened last year with Wilson?

“Oh, man,” Payton began. “There’s so much dirt around that. There’s 20 dirty hands, for what was allowed, tolerated in the fricking training rooms, the meeting rooms. The offense. I don’t know Hackett. A lot of people had dirt on their hands. It wasn’t just Russell. He didn’t just flip. He still has it. This B.S. that he hit a wall? Shoot, they couldn’t get a play in. They were 29th in the league in pre-snap penalties on both sides of the ball.”

Wilson, 34, is undoubtedly in better hands with Payton and coordinator Joe Lombardi, who served for 10 years as Payton’s quarterbacks coach with the Saints. And it’s virtually a given that he will get a boost from an overhauled offensive line, which includes the huge free agency investments made in right tackle Mike McGlinchey and left guard Ben Powers.

Payton is encouraged by what he saw from the offseason work with Wilson, maintaining, “He’s still got gas in the tank.”

Yet another layer of the Wilson saga involved the kid-glove handling he received from Hackett, which fueled much speculation and criticism as the season (which ended at 5-12) spiraled out of control. Wilson, a 12th-year pro, has employed a support staff for years that includes a personal athletic trainer, a strength and conditioning coach and massage therapist. Yet boundaries were apparently blurred by the presence of Wilson’s personal quarterback coach, Jake Heaps.

Not anymore. When Payton was hired in February, he made it clear that Heaps would not have access to the team’s facility.

“That wasn’t his fault,” Payton said of Wilson. “That was the parents who allowed it. That’s not an incrimination on him, but an incrimination on the head coach, the GM, the president and everybody else who watched it all happen.

“Now, a quarterback having an office and a place to watch film is normal. But all those things get magnified when you’re losing. And that other stuff, I’ve never heard of it. We’re not doing that.”

Yes, the culture has changed with a new sheriff in town. It will be reflected, too, in the pace and tone of training camp. Hackett wouldn’t play starters in preseason games and even kept them out of one-on-one drills in practices in an apparent effort for preservation.

Under Payton – who declares that they are preparing to play “tackle football” – it will be old-school intense…up to the point allowed by CBA rules. Soft is out.

“Everything I heard about last season, we’re doing the opposite,” Payton said.

Of course, Payton has his ways of expressing such to his team. Like his mentor, Parcells, he is hardly short of ways of getting a message across.

During the spring, Payton had a video made that hammered home the point that the 2022 season was over and done with. The video included the image of some team equipment staff members riding off in the orange, 2022 Ford Bronco (with the rearview and side mirrors removed) that had been positioned near the practice field. Also, a scene was edited in from the movie “Planes, Trains and Automobiles,” where John Candy’s character drove the wrong way on a freeway. And the video included a shot of a truck driving off a cliff.

Maybe there’s a part of Payton that wants to be a Hollywood film producer.

“That was a message,” Payton said. “They can only beat the (expletive) out of you so much. But everybody’s got a little stink on their hands. It’s not just Russell. It was a (poor) offensive line. It might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was.”

Fast-forward to now. On the day the veterans reported, Payton had his assistant, Paul Kelly, queue up a short nature documentary that showed baby iguanas under attack from running snakes immediately after they hatched. The video captures how some of the iguanas survived by dashing to an oceanside cliff. Others were eaten by snakes.

Payton pondered showing what he called a “creepy video” to hammer home a point to his players.

“When these baby iguanas are hatched, they pop their heads out of the sand and they’ve got to get to the cliffs,” he said. “There are runner snakes all around, and they feed off the babies. So, the message is, ‘We’ve got to hit the ground running. There’s a sense of urgency. Let’s hit the ground running.’ ”

Which might go a long way toward Payton’s ASAP vision of taking the Broncos to the playoffs.

We immediately went to the Broncos schedule – and yes, Nathaniel Hackett returns to Mile High in October.

WEEK 5 · Sun 10/08 ·    NEW YORK JETS      2:25 PM MDT   CBS

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Where is RB J.K. DOBBINS?  Edward Lee of the Baltimore Sun:

The mystery of J.K. Dobbins’ absence from Ravens Training Camp deepens, Edward Lee of the Baltimore Sun reports.

One month after failing to participate in the Ravens’ mandatory three-day minicamp, which followed a decision to skip three weeks of voluntary organized team activities, the starting running back did not participate in the team’s first day of training camp practice Wednesday afternoon at the organization’s facility in Owings Mills.

The development wasn’t exactly shocking as the 2020 second-round draft pick had been placed on the physically unable to perform list Friday. But there had been a little hope that the 24-year-old Dobbins — who reported to camp Thursday with other injured veterans — might come off the PUP list in time for Wednesday’s practice.

Asked whether Dobbins’ absence from practice was related to the torn ACL, MCL and meniscus in his left knee that sidelined him for the entire 2021 season and nine games last fall, coach John Harbaugh had few answers.

“I wish there was a simple answer,” he said. “There’s always a lot of things that go into football, but there’s some complexity to it. We’re working through all that, and we’re looking forward to when he’s out there.”

When Dobbins did not take part in the last month’s minicamp, he revealed his frustration during a television interview over not getting a contract extension as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal. He watched the end of Wednesday’s practice from the sideline and spoke with team owner Steve Bisciotti and team president Sashi Brown.

Without Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon III — the 30-year-old former Los Angeles Chargers running back who was signed the same day Dobbins was placed on the PUP list — handled most of the reps in the backfield during Wednesday’s full-team and seven-on-seven drills.

Harbaugh shrugged off a question about whether Dobbins is behind on learning an offense crafted by new coordinator Todd Monken.

“It’s really hard to make a measurement like that,” Harbaugh said. “I don’t really know if there’s a measurement. I know he’ll get ready. He’s in our meetings mentally and those kinds of things. I also believe this about J.K.: he’ll be happy when he’s out there. So he wants to be out there, and we both want the same thing.”

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

WR STEFON DIGGS says that whatever was going on between him and the Bills is over.  Ryan Young of YahooSports.com:

Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills are fine.

Diggs, after missing the first of two mandatory minicamp practices last month, insisted Wednesday at training camp that he and coach Sean McDermott are good.

“It’s all water under the bridge,” Diggs said, via the NFL Network. “I know you guys haven’t spent too much time with me all offseason and I missed you guys, too, but all is well in the Mafia household.”

Diggs missed the first of two mandatory practices last month, which prompted McDermott to tell reporters he was “very concerned.” He didn’t elaborate on Diggs’ absence at the time, either, which only led to the speculation.

McDermott walked that back a day later, however, and said the two had talked at the facility that day. Diggs was apparently at the practice facility after all the day before, and the two just needed some space.

“We’re in a good spot [now]. Stef is ready to practice,” McDermott said Wednesday, via the Batavia Daily News’ Alex Brasky. “He is in the locker room right now.”

Stefon Diggs missed a mandatory minicamp practice last month, which led to speculation after Sean McDermott said he was “very concerned” about it

Stefon Diggs missed a mandatory minicamp practice last month, which led to speculation after coach Sean McDermott said he was “very concerned” about it. (AP/Adrian Kraus)

Diggs had 1,429 receiving yards and a career-high 11 touchdowns last season, his third with the Bills. It marked his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 receiving yards. The 29-year-old is entering the second year of a four-year, $96 million deal this fall.

Diggs sounded extremely frustrated after the Bills were knocked out of the divisional round by the Cincinnati Bengals last season. The Bengals rolled over the Bills 27-10, and Diggs left that game with just 35 yards on four receptions. Quarterback Josh Allen didn’t throw a single touchdown.

It marked the third straight year that the Bills, despite winning their division, failed to reach the Super Bowl. That, Diggs said, is what he and McDermott were talking about. It was a conversation they needed to have and work through.

“Everyone has family issues, everyone has family problems in the house,” Diggs said, via the NFL Network. “Obviously, the way we lost was just terrible in any regard. You don’t want to lose any game. We’ve lost for a couple of years at this point. We’ve been trying to get over the hump, and obviously it caused a lot of frustration.

“But in all, as far as with that, I was here. We did have a conversation. … I look at football like it’s a business at the end of the day, but when you go out there and fight tooth and nail, you put a lot of sweat equity into this thing, it starts to feel like a family. So, for me ,I kind of keep everything in house. At the end of the day, we had those conversations and everything that needed to be said was said, and we talked it out as men, everybody involved.”

While this incident provided a bit of offseason drama for the Bills, Diggs is just ready to move on.

He said Wednesday that he still wants to retire with the organization one day, and that he’s in a good place with McDermott entering his ninth season in the league. And, with McDermott calling defensive plays this season, it’s not like the two will be butting heads on that front.

“I also feel like I’m not a corner or DB. It’s not like I got to get some play calls from him,” Diggs said, via the NFL Network. “From a standpoint from a head coach, I have the utmost respect for him. He’s a guy that you can always have an open-door policy with and have conversations with him as a man, which is more important than football. I feel like we are on the same page moving forward.”

NEW YORK JETS

The sense is – QB AARON RODGERS gave up $35 million to leave Green Bay.  Rich Cimini of ESPN.com:

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers has signed a reworked contract in which he voluntarily reduced his salary by about $35 million over the next two seasons, a source said Wednesday.

Rodgers, 39, signed a two-year, $75 million contract that is fully guaranteed, a source said. He was due to make close to $110 million in guarantees on his previous contract. This is an uncommonly large pay cut, one that will provide financial flexibility for the organization over the next two years.

The agreement has been in place for weeks, awaiting Rodgers’ signature, a source said.

The NFL Network first reported the terms of the deal.

Earlier Wednesday, Rodgers confirmed the reworked agreement in a post-practice media session. He wouldn’t divulge details, saying it would become public later in the day.

Rodgers, acquired in an April blockbuster trade with the Green Bay Packers, reiterated his desire to play more than one season with the Jets.

“The team gave up significant pieces for it to be just a one-year deal,” he said. “I’m aware of that. … Anything could happen with my body or the success we have this year, but I’m having a blast, so I really don’t see this as a one-year-and-done thing.”

Rodgers will receive a $35 million roster bonus in four days, plus a $1.8 million salary. In 2024, his salary is $38.2 million.

Technically, the contract runs through 2027 because it includes two option years to minimize the cap impact of the $35 million roster bonus, the NFL Network reported.

To facilitate his trade to the Jets, Rodgers restructured his contract with the Packers in April, pushing a $58.3 million option bonus (fully guaranteed) into 2024.

Basically, the four-time NFL MVP was on the books for three months at the minimum salary in 2023 — only $1.2 million against the cap. While the low cap number provided flexibility for the Jets, it left a prohibitive cap charge in 2024 — $107.6 million.

Rodgers and the Jets agreed from the outset to rework the deal.

From Day 1, Rodgers has talked glowingly about the Jets. Looking back on his move from Green Bay, where he started for 15 years, Rodgers said, “We’ve all turned the page. It’s a new chapter. I think it’s going to be exciting for Green Bay, moving on. It’s definitely been really fun for me out here.”

The Jets, who have the NFL’s longest playoff drought (12 years), have been energized by Rodgers’ presence. Players and coaches have raved about his knowledge of the game and his all-in approach.

“I mean, the guy glows in the dark,” coach Robert Saleh said. “He’s a pretty damn good quarterback.”

Rodgers, who said it was always his goal to play until at least 40, has embraced the attention. He also has elevated the play of the offense, which finished 29th in scoring.

“Change can be difficult, for sure, especially when it’s that drastic — 18 years in one spot,” he said. “If you can lean into it and embrace it, there’s some really beautiful things on the other side.”

Rodgers said he has adjusted his diet and training regimen in recent years with the goal of extending his career.

“Obviously, Tom [Brady] set the standard playing at 45, which is crazy, but less crazy when you start to get closer to that because you still love the game, and you want to be there doing it,” he said. “If you take care of yourself the right way, you put yourself in a position to at least entertain that thought.”

– – –

And some of the money Rodgers gave back could be heading RB DALVIN COOK’s way.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Dalvin Cook’s free-agent market may finally be heating up.

Cook is flying to New York on Thursday to take a visit with the Jets this weekend, according to multiple reports.

The running back has been a free agent since Minnesota released him last month. He’s long been linked to the Jets and Dolphins as potential teams to sign him, but this is the biggest signal of interest from either franchise.

Last week, Jets head coach Robert Saleh said on Cook, “You never want to say no to a great player.”

With quarterback Aaron Rodgers taking a significant pay cut, some of the money New York saved could be used to lure in Cook.

THIS AND THAT

THE RUNNING BACK ISSUE

Most everyone has some sympathy with the star running backs – so valuable in any individual game, but not deemed worthy of long-term significant investments due to the fleeting window for their success.  But not Jim Irsay, owner of the Colts.

Colts owner Jim Irsay does not seem interested in rethinking the NFL’s approach to handling running backs amid protests by elite players at the position over their contract negotiations.

Irsay, in an apparent reply to suggestions the NFL should reshape its approach to franchise tags that has running backs at the low end of the pay scale, said owners should consider no such thing.

“We have negotiated a CBA, that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides,” Irsay wrote Wednesday on social media. “To say now that a specific player category wants another negotiation after the fact, is inappropriate. Some agents are selling ‘bad faith.'”

Irsay’s remarks came after comments by Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris from earlier Wednesday, with the Pro Bowl ball carrier sharing some of what was discussed among a group of top running backs during a recent videoconference aimed at finding solutions to the compensation challenges at the position. Harris revealed that the group spoke to NFL Players Association officials about one hypothetical resolution: using franchise tag numbers that are not assigned by position.

Running backs who are assigned the franchise tag are slotted for a one-year salary that is less than any other position player: $10.091 million. Only kickers and punters, at $5.393 million, receive less via the franchise tag. For context, quarterbacks, cornerbacks, wide receivers, offensive and defensive linemen and linebackers all receive franchise numbers in excess of $18 million.

But Irsay, who is on the NFL’s finance committee, clearly views changing the current structure to be a nonstarter. Owners would be unlikely to engage in such a conversation given how much of an advantage the franchise tag has been for NFL clubs.

The state of economics among running backs continues to be a story given the rash of recent flash points between certain backs and their teams. Among those is the standoff between Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants and the situation in Las Vegas, where Raiders star Josh Jacobs has yet to sign his franchise tender and, thus, has declined to report to training camp.

Meanwhile, the Colts’ star running back — Jonathan Taylor — has seen his request for a new contract go unfulfilled, even after he went public with his displeasure last month. Taylor was placed on the physically unable to perform list on Tuesday, and he cannot practice until he is activated.

Malki Kawa, Taylor’s agent, responded to Irsay’s dismissal of new contract talks later Wednesday by saying, “Bad faith is not paying your top offensive player.”

General manager Chris Ballard, speaking Tuesday, hardly suggested an extension is forthcoming.

“We’re coming off a four-win season, we have a new coaching staff, so we’ll kind of let it play out as it does and make those decisions when we need to make those decisions,” Ballard said.

20 FOR WHOM 2023 IS ESPECIALLY CRUCIAL

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com with one of his long takeouts on 20 individuals for whom 2023 is vital (we count 17 players, 2 coaches, 1 GM):

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins

Let’s start with the most obvious answer. Like classmates Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, Tagovailoa had his fifth-year option picked up in March, guaranteeing him $23.2 million for the 2024 season. Unlike Hurts and Herbert, who have signed significant extensions, and Burrow, who is sure to sign his own deal before the start of the season, Tagovailoa isn’t expected to come to terms on a contract this year. His long-term future with the Dolphins might depend on what happens over the next eight months.

Of course, you probably understand why. Tagovailoa was the best quarterback in football during the first half of last season, averaging more than 9.0 yards per attempt, throwing 18 touchdown passes against just three picks and posting a league-best QBR of 82.4. Injuries to his offensive line and multiple concussions caused him to struggle the rest of the season, and after suffering a concussion in the middle of a loss to the Packers in December, he missed the remainder of the regular season and Miami’s postseason loss in Buffalo.

If Tagovailoa lives up to those early-season expectations this year, the Dolphins will pay him accordingly, with a deal north of $120 million guaranteed at signing. If he struggles or isn’t able to stay healthy, though, Miami (or another team) will move forward with that $23.2 million guarantee for 2024 and see whether he can regain that form next season. There’s nobody else in the league who has nine figures riding on what happens over the next 17 games.

Josh Allen, QB, Bills

Tagovailoa isn’t the only AFC East quarterback with a lot riding on what happens this season. Allen already has been paid and established himself as one of the league’s top quarterbacks, but his play declined after an elbow injury last season. He averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt before suffering a torn UCL in his right elbow in Week 9. Afterward, he averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and struggled in the postseason, with the Bills narrowly beating a Miami team without its top two quarterbacks before getting blown out by the Bengals at home in the snow.

I’m not concerned about Allen, who has firmly established himself as a top-tier quarterback and a player who can single-handedly win the Bills games as a passer and runner. I’d love to see him protect himself when scrambling and for the Bills to call fewer designed runs for him in 2023, but I don’t believe there’s any fundamental issue with how he plays or what he’s going to do this season.

Having said that, the playoff discussion for Allen is coming. You can argue it doesn’t make sense. I don’t agree with it. I saw what Allen did against the Chiefs, who couldn’t have stopped him with 15 defenders on the field in the fourth quarter of their game in the 2021 playoffs. It was one of the single greatest performances I’ve ever seen from a quarterback, and he shouldn’t be blamed for a loss when he handed his defense a three-point lead with 13 seconds left and never got to touch the ball again.

And yet, Allen is just 4-4 in the postseason in his career. He was a mess during the 2019 playoffs, when the Texans seemingly caused him to break down like an overheating circuit board. He wasn’t good last postseason. He was incredible against the Patriots the week before that Chiefs game in 2021. The 2020 playoffs were somewhere in between, as he ran hot and cold for long stretches against the Colts and Ravens before losing to the Chiefs.

I hate this whole argument, but I’ve seen it before. Peyton Manning spent years struggling in the postseason before eventually breaking through, but until he made it to a Super Bowl, he was widely portrayed as inferior to Tom Brady. The same was true for John Elway and Dan Marino relative to Joe Montana in the prior generation. It’s unfair to compare anybody to Patrick Mahomes, who still hasn’t even played a road playoff game — and I hate the way people move the goalposts for playoff success until a quarterback wins a Super Bowl — but this isn’t anything new.

On top of that, the Bills aren’t getting any better. Their roster isn’t as deep as it was two years ago, owing to a few disappointing draft picks and a series of deserved extensions for their young stars. Edge rusher Von Miller is 34, and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer — the heart of the team — are both 32. Star wideout Stefon Diggs’ relationship with the team appears to be melting down in installments. The AFC East (and the conference as a whole) is stacked, but if not now for Allen and the Bills, when?

Joe Douglas, GM, Jets

Most general managers who start their careers 20-46 in the biggest media market in America aren’t feeling as good about their chances of making it through Year 5 as Douglas is in New York. Consider that Dave Gettleman was run out of town a year earlier after the Giants went 19-46 in his four years at the helm.

It’s not hard to understand. Douglas’ Jets went 7-10 last season with a clear albatross at quarterback (Zach Wilson). Now, one of the league’s best defenses will get to rest while future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers does his thing in a Jets uniform. On paper, they look poised to burst through years of mediocrity to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2010. The expectation is for New York to compete with the best teams in the AFC.

Maybe it will be that simple. If it’s not, though, Douglas’ résumé is going to come into question. Douglas had one of the best first rounds in recent memory when he landed cornerback Sauce Gardner and wide receiver Garrett Wilson last year, but he’s also the same general manager who took Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick the previous year. Top-100 picks Denzel Mims, Jabari Zuniga and Elijah Moore are already out of the organization before the end of their rookie deals. Wilson would have followed if he had any trade value.

What happens if the Jets don’t live up to expectations? The sword is unlikely to fall on Rodgers, whom the team likely will be locked in to for the 2024 season once the two sides negotiate his contract. It won’t be coach Robert Saleh, who built a great defense last season and arrived a year after Douglas made it to town. The most likely scenario should see New York compete for a playoff spot, but after throwing Wilson overboard last season, Douglas would be the next one to fall if the team falters.

Jamal Adams, S, Seahawks

Douglas got into position to acquire Zach Wilson a year ago as a product of the Adams trade, with the Seahawks sending two first-round picks as the focal point of a package to acquire the star safety from New York. The move looked promising after Year 1, when Adams racked up 9.5 sacks in 12 games and was a second-team All-Pro in 2020.

He has played just 13 games over the ensuing two seasons while battling a torn labrum in 2021 and a quadriceps tear in 2022. He hasn’t recorded a sack over that stretch, and Pro Football Reference’s metrics have pegged him as a liability in coverage. I’m not sure the move to acquire Adams in the first place looks great with any benefit of hindsight, and it would be even worse if the Adams who shows up in 2023 isn’t as explosive as the player the Seahawks acquired three years ago.

Adams’ $18.1 million cap hit is the largest for any safety in the league and of any player on the Seahawks’ roster. That figure goes up to $23.6 million in 2024, when Seattle could create as much as $16.5 million in space by designating him as a post-June 1 release. This is the same organization that once sent a first-round pick to the Vikings for Percy Harvin, gave him a new contract and then traded him away the following year for peanuts. If Adams can’t make it back to be a regular contributor this season, the Seahawks will have a tough decision to make next spring.

Trey Lance, QB, 49ers

Has any player in recent memory seen their stock rise and fall so quickly without playing much at all? Lance was the future of the 49ers franchise after the team traded three first-round picks to acquire the No. 3 overall pick and draft him in 2021. He started two games as a fill-in for Jimmy Garoppolo that season, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and running for 120 yards. He moved into the starting lineup in 2022, then struggled amid a torrential downpour in Chicago before breaking his right ankle in the first quarter of Week 2. He has played 262 snaps over two seasons.

And yet, it seems like Lance might as well already be on another team. Garoppolo and then-unheralded seventh-round pick Brock Purdy thrived after Lance went down, and the organization acquired running back Christian McCaffrey. Reports have suggested San Francisco might be more likely to turn to newly acquired third-stringer Sam Darnold than Lance if Purdy’s injured elbow isn’t ready to go in Week 1. It would be one thing if Lance had flamed out like Zach Wilson (or Darnold), but the 49ers appear ready to abandon their hopes for the 23-year-old quarterback after three complete starts.

Lance will have a career after the 2023 season, but the initial shape of that career might have much to do with what happens over this campaign. The dream scenario would be for him to somehow win back the starting job, given that he would be blessed with the league’s best playmakers and coach Kyle Shanahan, one of the foremost offensive minds in football. On the other end of the spectrum would be Lance getting injured again before being dealt to a hopeless situation after the year ends. He went from the 49ers’ future to their past in a year; could he reverse that feat this season?

Jordan Love, QB, Packers

Lance already has started and seemingly ended his 49ers career in the time Love has spent backing up Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Now, with Rodgers on the Jets, Love and his 83 career pass attempts will move into the starting role for the Packers. He’ll be throwing to what projects to be the second-youngest group of wide receivers and tight ends since 1990. Love will be part of the most inexperienced quarterback room the NFL has seen since … 2008, when Rodgers took over for Brett Favre. Well, at least nobody will get in his way!

Surprisingly, Love mitigated some of the risk before his debut campaign as the Packers’ starter by agreeing to a one-year extension worth $13.5 million in lieu of the team picking up his fifth-year option, which would have cost Green Bay north of $20 million to guarantee. I don’t think the Packers would have actually been willing to decline the option and run the risk of starting him on the franchise tag hamster wheel if he broke out, but it’s also not my $20 million on the line. The team clearly believes Love is its quarterback of the future, but if he struggles this season, more meaningful competition will be on its way in 2024.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

It’s easy to write the script: After a 13-4 season in which the Vikings were propped up by an impossibly great record in close games, Cousins & Co. decline in 2023. An offense that ran more drives than any other team a year ago doesn’t get as many opportunities as it did, causing Cousins’ numbers to take a step backward. Out of the playoff picture in December, the Vikings choose to see what they have in rookie fifth-round pick Jaren Hall and bench Cousins for the final two games before the veteran leaves in free agency after the season.

Having pocketed more than $200 million across his career, Cousins doesn’t need the money. His numbers are fine, but he doesn’t have a realistic path to the Hall of Fame. The one thing left for the 34-year-old to accomplish before he retires is changing minds. The popular perception of him as a quarterback is that he’s just good enough to disappoint you by losing in the postseason. Cousins has this 2023 season in Minnesota and some indeterminate number of seasons in the future elsewhere to rewrite his legacy.

Where he ends up in 2024 might depend on how he performs in 2023. If Cousins plays well, there might be a path to a new deal with the Vikings. He could be in line for a move to a starting job on a more competitive team, with the oft-mooted reunion with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco as one possibility. If he struggles, he would likely fall onto the path Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco traversed after leaving their longtime teams, either settling for bridge work or a low-upside starting opportunity somewhere in 2024, keeping him out of the Super Bowl picture.

Chase Claypool, WR, Bears

After a nine-touchdown rookie season in 2020, Claypool was seen as a burgeoning star and the next great wide receiver off the production line in Pittsburgh. After a solid but unspectacular 2021, the wheels came off in 2022. He fell behind George Pickens on the depth chart and averaged just 1.2 yards per route run, which ranked 55th out of the 67 receivers who ran 20 or more routes per game. Traded to the Bears at midseason to be a building block for Justin Fields, Claypool struggled to stay healthy and topped 30 yards once in seven games.

Now, with DJ Moore joining the organization, Claypool again looks to be buried in the third receiver spot on the depth chart. He didn’t participate in minicamp, which didn’t help his chemistry with Fields. As he enters the final year of his rookie deal, there’s still significant upside in hand. A good season from Claypool might earn the 25-year-old a big contract in free agency. Something like his 2022 campaign again would have Claypool looking at a one-year pact for modest money.

Marcus Davenport, EDGE, Vikings

Last season was critical for Davenport, whom the Saints used two first-round picks to move up to acquire in the 2018 draft. It didn’t go well. Playing out his fifth-year option, Davenport racked up a half-sack in 15 games while playing just 490 defensive snaps. He ceded opportunities to Carl Granderson and Kaden Elliss, players who didn’t have Davenport’s résumé as a first-round pick but simply outplayed him.

Davenport showed enough before the 2022 campaign to attract some interest in free agency. He signed a one-year deal with the Vikings for $13 million, allowing the 26-year-old to reenter the free agent market if he has a big season. He’s still a great talent and can be a rotational end for years to come given his size, but he needs to follow in the footsteps of Shaq Barrett and Kyle Vanden Bosch and turn his career around as a pass-rusher immediately after joining a new team.

Chase Young, EDGE, Commanders

No pass-rusher came into the league with a more exciting résumé than Young, who was seen as potentially the best player available at any position when he came off the board with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 draft. Young did enough in his debut season to claim the defensive rookie of the year award, but he never built on his promising start. He had just 1.5 sacks and four knockdowns during the first half of 2021 before suffering a knee injury, then didn’t return before the final three weeks of the 2022 campaign.

The Commanders declined Young’s fifth-year option this spring. The hope might be that the move motivates Young, but the reality is the Commanders thought the level of play Young has shown so far hasn’t been worth the risk of guaranteeing him $17.5 million for 2024, even when that’s a relatively modest mark for edge rushers. With former college teammate Nick Bosa set to become the highest-paid defensive end in league history on a new extension this offseason, Young needs to turn things around to get back on track, with the $24.5 million franchise tag as a target for 2024.

Isaiah Simmons, LB, Cardinals

The other eligible player to have his option declined among the 2020 draft’s top 10 picks is another defender who hasn’t lived up to expectations. Simmons entered the league billed as a player with the versatility to play as an off-ball linebacker, safety or even slot cornerback. Along with 2021 first-rounder Zaven Collins, the Cardinals drafted Simmons to be a space-destroying matchup-fixer in a division that routinely terrorized linebackers and safeties in open space.

Since entering the league, though, Simmons hasn’t been able to translate his physicals tools into consistent success at any position. He has been too easily picked and outmuscled as a linebacker, and hasn’t been a difference-maker when used to rush the quarterback. After the 24-year-old took snaps in the slot last season, new coach Jonathan Gannon is moving Simmons into the secondary on a full-time basis, hoping that Simmons’ physicality might play better away from the line of scrimmage. It’s worth a shot given what little the Cardinals have to work with at cornerback at the moment.

Devin White, LB, Buccaneers

For a brief moment in April, it seemed as if White might be going somewhere else. The star linebacker requested a trade, but the Buccaneers decided against trading him, and the stories subsequently subsided. He likely will be on the Tampa Bay roster in 2023, although there haven’t been many suggestions that the two sides are close on a long-term contract extension.

White had his highs and lows last season; he was named Defensive Player of the Month in September before looking like a liability as the season wore along. He struggled in coverage and was accused of loafing during a midseason loss to the Ravens. White can point to his résumé and suggest he should be considered one of the best inside linebackers in football. It was tough to believe he was that caliber of player for most of the 2022 campaign, which likely led to futile contract negotiations and the trade request.

The Bucs aren’t in great cap shape after bringing back Lavonte David and Jamel Dean, and 2023 is a reset season for them. Tampa has a league-high $74.3 million in dead money on its salary cap. It can create more flexibility in 2024, but will White play up to the contract he wants? There’s a universe in which these two sides come together on a long-term deal after the year and one in which they part ways.

Jonah Williams, OT, Bengals

Another young player who issued a trade request this offseason, Williams was clearly frustrated when the Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr. with the intention of installing the former Chiefs lineman at left tackle. After allowing nine sacks in 16 games last season, Williams was expected to kick over to the right side, a move that could cost him millions of dollars on his next contract.

In truth, the Bengals made the right decision. Williams wasn’t very good on Joe Burrow’s blindside last season, and while he seemed like a strength when the Bengals were starting replacement-level linemen around him in the Super Bowl, he hasn’t developed into the player Cincinnati hoped when it drafted him with the No. 11 pick in the 2019 draft. With Williams entering a contract season, it’s better for him to try to have a great season on the right side than it would be to struggle again as a left tackle, which might be why he rescinded his trade request. Landing something like the five-year, $87.5 million deal Mike McGlinchey signed with the Broncos as a young tackle in free agency would hardly count as settling.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars

After nearly two years on the sidelines, Ridley is back. The 28-year-old battled a broken foot and the emotional anguish of enduring a robbery before being suspended for violating the league’s gambling policy. Merely getting back on the field for Week 1 would be a triumph for the former Falcons star, who was traded to the Jaguars during his suspension.

Ridley is capable of much more than simply showing up, though. As the presumptive No. 1 wide receiver on a pass-friendly Jaguars offense, he could be in line to land the major contract he missed out on over the past two seasons with a big 2023 campaign. He is still in the prime of his career and could hope to land an extension north of $20 million per year if he returns to form.

Kadarius Toney, WR, Chiefs

The opportunity is there. The Chiefs traded significant draft capital to acquire Toney last season, and while the former Giants wideout played only 109 snaps in the regular season, he continued to flash big-play ability. He played eight snaps in the Super Bowl and yet still played a key role in swinging the game toward Kansas City, scoring one touchdown in the fourth quarter and setting up another with a 65-yard punt return. Between the regular season and playoffs, including special teams, Toney either was targeted or touched the ball 49 times on just 173 snaps. When he’s on the field, the Chiefs are desperate to get him involved.

The problem is Toney has been unable to stay on the field. He has played more than 70% of the offensive snaps just once in two seasons as a pro. His résumé as a starting wide receiver amounts to three games in which he racked up more than 50 receiving yards, most notably a 189-yard performance in a loss to the Cowboys. With a wide-open depth chart at wide receiver for the Chiefs, Toney could make a starting job his own and produce dazzling numbers catching passes from Patrick Mahomes. Sadly, Toney aggravated his surgically repaired knee Monday and underwent surgery Tuesday, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be ready to start the season on the active roster.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers

It’s the last chance saloon for the former Oklahoma star. Mayfield struggled mightily during his final season with the Browns in 2021 and was a disaster last season for the Panthers, who cut him at midseason. Mayfield ended up in Los Angeles with a going-nowhere Rams team, and while he was on the winning side of two memorable nationally televised games against the Raiders and Broncos, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick averaged 6.6 yards per attempt. Nobody was going to thrive in an offense without Cooper Kupp or any starting offensive linemen after arriving in midseason, but Mayfield was more of a fun story than a productive quarterback during his stint in Los Angeles.

In Tampa Bay, Mayfield gets his last and best chance to rebuild his career as a starter. The Bucs still have a trio of exciting wide receivers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage. They have a couple of excellent players left up front in center Ryan Jensen and tackle Tristan Wirfs, who moves from the right side to the left this season. Mayfield won’t have experienced competition, as Kyle Trask and John Wolford are the other quarterbacks on the roster. If he can’t make it work here, he’s going to be looking at backup duties in 2024.

Kevin Stefanski, coach, Browns

Mayfield’s old coach in Cleveland also has plenty riding on 2023. Stefanski was named Coach of the Year in 2020 after leading the Browns to their first playoff win in more than 25 years, but the former Vikings assistant hasn’t built on that success. Mayfield regressed and seemed to lose faith in his relationship with Stefanski in 2021. The Browns then traded for Deshaun Watson, but after Stefanski built a stable offense around the running game and Jacoby Brissett during Watson’s suspension, the offense cratered once the new addition took over at quarterback.

After a full offseason, the hope is that Stefanski and Watson will be on the same page in 2023. If they aren’t, well, only one of those two parties has a fully guaranteed contract for $230 million. After the team addressed its defensive woes by adding Jim Schwartz this offseason to serve as coordinator, there’s not really a major change for them to make outside of Stefanski if the Browns struggle in 2023. No Browns coach has survived three consecutive losing seasons since Bill Belichick in the early 1990s. If Stefanski does right the ship and gets Watson to look more like the player the Browns expected last offseason, though, he could push for a contract extension.

Mike McCarthy, coach, Cowboys

Beyond the extent that every Cowboys head coach is perennially on the hot seat, McCarthy has to expect to be the focal point of team owner Jerry Jones’ rage if things don’t work out in 2023. The Cowboys moved on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, whose offenses had ranked first and fourth in scoring over the past two seasons, to hand playcalling duties back to McCarthy and retread coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. McCarthy’s quotes about wanting to score less and control the scoreboard fall apart under some scrutiny.

Most coaches who win 12 games in back-to-back seasons have plenty of job security, and Jones stuck with Jason Garrett much longer than anybody would have expected before hiring McCarthy. Given how disastrous Dallas’ exits from the postseason have been over the past two years, what happens if that occurs a third time? Jones isn’t going anywhere. Dak Prescott is sticking around. It’s possible Jones throws Schottenheimer overboard, but McCarthy consolidating power turns this into an all-in situation.

And on the flip side, what happens if McCarthy is right? If the Cowboys make a deep playoff run after falling short in years past, he will get a contract extension and the job security that comes with a big bet paying off. And if McCarthy does lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl, well, they might put him in their Ring of Honor before the 2024 season even begins.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts

Most of the backs who have drawn attention this offseason don’t qualify for this list because they aren’t in position to make a significant change in their situation. Even if franchise backs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs play well in 2023, they’re likely to earn the tag again in 2024, given that it’s still expected to come in around only $12 million. Free agents Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott are unlikely to earn long-term deals, even if they play well after joining a new team this season.

Taylor, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal, might be the lone back in position to escape the franchise tag. His 2021 production was transcendent, as he ran for more than 1,800 yards, scored 20 touchdowns and finished second in the offensive player of the year balloting. Ankle injuries limited him in 2022, but he’s expected to again become the focal point of the offense as rookie first-rounder Anthony Richardson takes over as the team’s quarterback of the future.

As I wrote in my long treatise on running backs, having a rushing quarterback can help and hurt star backs. The threat of a quarterback keeping the football creates numbers advantages for the offense and produces wider running lanes after freezing linebackers. It also reduces the chances that a back gets the high-end workload needed to produce the counting numbers Taylor did in 2021. Richardson’s modest salary over the next few years would make it easier to justify a significant long-term deal for Taylor.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers

Harris hasn’t been an efficient back during his first two seasons in Pittsburgh. He has stayed healthy and absorbed a large workload, which are valuable skills, but he hasn’t been the sort of difference-maker a team hopes to land when it drafts a running back in Round 1. Whether it’s traditional metrics (3.9 yards per carry) or advanced ones (a league-worst minus-197 rush yards over expectation over the past two seasons), Harris has been a throwback in the wrong sort of way.

First, the explanation was that the Steelers didn’t have any ability to create downfield spacing with an immobile Ben Roethlisberger, who seemed to target Harris at the first sign of any danger. Fair. Well, it wasn’t any better with rookie Kenny Pickett last season. Next, there were the criticisms of the offensive line. Pittsburgh’s line wasn’t great, but undrafted backup Jaylen Warren was far more efficient by rush yards over expectation behind the same five blockers, and the Steelers rebuilt the left side of their line this offseason by adding Broderick Jones and Isaac Seumalo. If Harris doesn’t take a leap forward in 2023, he’s going to run the risk of having his fifth-year option declined.