Teams on which 85 percent of players are vaccinated will receive relaxed COVID-19 protocols for this season. Still, vaccination rates aren’t climbing quite as fast as the NFL and its teams likely had hoped.

Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports that a sixth team topped the threshold Thursday.

The Steelers, Dolphins and Saints previously were reported to have crossed the 85 percent threshold. The other three teams are unknown.

The league-wide vaccination rate now is over 69 percent, according to Pelissero.

A important deadline comes Monday when a player would need to get a second shot (or the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine) to be fully vaccinated by the time most teams report to camp July 27.

Virtually all Tier 1 and Tier 2 personnel are vaccinated throughout the league. Coaches and other football staff are in the Tier 1 and Tier 2 category. If those individuals choose not to get the vaccine, they are prohibited from working in person with players.

Players are not required to be vaccinated but face COVID-19 protocols if they choose not to do so. Those restrictions include a mandatory mask mandate at the facility, not being allowed to eat in the cafeteria with teammates and being forced to remain in the team hotel during any off time for road games.

DETROIT

Max DaMara of The Heavy thinks WR N’KEAL HENRY would look good in Honolulu Blue.

The Detroit Lions have made it a goal to find more difference makers for their rebuild, and as a result, the team should be leaving no stone unturned in their efforts, including a potential trade for N’Keal Harry.

Such a trade has already been said to be a good fit for the Lions given some of the circumstances, but there are more reasons than just one that the match could be a quality one for the team.

What are the positives of a potential Harry deal for the Lions? Here’s a look at some of the biggest plusses from this potential move from the Detroit perspective.

Detroit’s Wideout Depth Remains Shaky

The Lions have tons of options for next season, but all of them are either on par with someone like Harry or potentially even more unproven. Tyrell Williams hasn’t stayed healthy. Breshad Perriman hasn’t been able to stick on one NFL roster. Names like Quintez Cephus, Damion Ratley and Kalif Raymond haven’t seen enough passes to be considered anything other than intriguing options. For all the positives Amon-Ra St. Brown brings, he is a rookie at the end of the day. Harry could instantly give the Lions a little bit of punch at a position that has seen some players added that have questions of their own and are largely unproven in the league.

Harry Could Blossom Given a New Chance

Time and again, young players given up on in one spot go somewhere else and find a brand new football life. Lions fans have watched it with their former players, so potentially, it’s time for the team to find a reclamation project of their own to work with. Harry isn’t damaged goods at this point of his career, and now could be the right time for the right scenery change to help and jump-start his career. Getting him to a young team without many expectations like Detroit could be a great move for both parties and give him a great shot at rejuvenating his career.

At Age 23, Time Remains on Harry’s Side

Harry is not a veteran wideout who is on the downside of his career, nor is he a player who has had multiple bad injuries and is looking like a shell of his former self. Simply, he’s a player who hasn’t worked out as well as possible in his setting and needs a scenery change. At 23, Harry could be part of the present as well as the future for the Lions. Taking fliers on these types of players would be a very good idea for Brad Holmes to help in trying to build his roster to last for the future.

A Big-Play Wideout Would Help Jared Goff

This offseason, all the talk has been about how the Lions have not surrounded Goff with nearly enough weapons. Trading for a player like Harry would give the Lions a definite boost given the fact that questions have swirled about who will be catching passes for Goff this year. What better way to show Goff you continue to be serious about him as quarterback than to get him yet another weapon for the offense? Getting Harry could give Goff even more confidence about his new wideout group heading into a new season on the field.

Cost of a Harry Trade Not Likely Prohibitive

The Lions likely would not have to cough up a first-round pick for Harry. They probably wouldn’t even need to cough up a second or third rounder either. The discussion could begin with a middle-round selection, which would be a huge value to the Lions given everything else Harry would bring to the mix for the team. If the Lions could get Harry for a fifth-round pick or later or in a swap for another struggling player on the roster bubble, it would be a winning move for the franchise. Given how desperately he wants out, the Patriots may have to accept a deal like this.

DALLAS

Today’s preseason preview from Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com looks at the Cowboys, who he has ranked at #19.

The Dallas Cowboys were 1-3, leading the New York Giants 24-23 in the third quarter of a game that could have gone either way. The one win was an absolute miracle against the Atlanta Falcons. Then Dak Prescott suffered one of the more graphic and infamous injuries the NFL has seen in a while.

Prescott has signed a long-term extension and seems to be doing well in his recovery, and there’s a sense that the Cowboys are the team to beat the NFC East because their quarterback is back. They’re a strong favorite at BetMGM to win the division, at +115 odds. Washington is second at +250.

That ignores a few issues, most notably that the Cowboys weren’t good last season even with Prescott on a pace to throw for about 6,000 yards.

The Cowboys’ defense was horrendous early last season, and even with late improvement and a much-needed coordinator change, there’s a long way to go for that unit to be decent. We also should have some serious questions about coach Mike McCarthy.

The Cowboys are hoping the change to Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator is the biggest fix for the defense. McCarthy has his doubters, and he made a brutal hire the first time. McCarthy and Mike Nolan went back several years to their days as assistants in San Francisco together, but Nolan hadn’t run a defense since 2014 and hadn’t had a good defense for a few years before that. McCarthy hired his buddy and it was awful. The Cowboys allowed the most points and second-most yards in franchise history.

Quinn takes over the Cowboys defense, and the former Atlanta Falcons coach isn’t a sure thing. The 2019 Falcons were bad with Quinn running the defense, then took off in the second half when Quinn handed the defense to Raheem Morris. That’s not a great sign for a coach known for his defensive prowess. It has been a long time since Quinn was coaching a top-ranked defense with the Seattle Seahawks, which led to him getting the Falcons job. Quinn was a fine hire, he’s certainly better than Nolan, but it’s no guarantee he fixes the defense.

To help the talent level, the Cowboys invested in role players in free agency (Prescott’s four-year, $160 million deal is going to force Dallas to be a little more responsible in spending) and had a defense-heavy draft. Maybe the additions and Quinn allow Dallas to move up to the middle of the league in defense. The good news is, that’s probably all they need.

Dallas’ offense should be great, but there are injury concerns. The offensive line was beat up last season. Tyron Smith missed 14 games, Zack Martin missed six games and La’el Collins missed all season. That’s a lot to overcome and a good reason Ezekiel Elliott didn’t look like his normal self. Those linemen should be back, but it’s also dangerous to assume none of the injury issues persist. There’s a fair question about Prescott too, which we’ll get to in a bit. If the offense holds up, it should be among the best in the league. Between Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, the Cowboys have a great receiver trio. Elliott should bounce back. The offense is set up very well. It’s just a little more precarious than you’d like, given the injury questions.

Then there’s the McCarthy question. Any list of coaches on the hot seat will include McCarthy, though owner Jerry Jones has historically been patient with his coaches. A lot was written and said about McCarthy reinventing himself after he was fired by the Green Bay Packers, but you couldn’t see it in 2020. Maybe it was injuries, though the Cowboys were bad before the biggest injury, to Prescott. Either way, it would be tough to find anyone who is too confident in McCarthy coming into 2021.

Maybe the Cowboys will blow past the rest of the NFC East. Perhaps Prescott is as good as ever, the offensive line is healthy, and a top-five offense is helped by a defense that gets a lot better with some new talent and Quinn’s scheme. You can easily talk yourself into that story, and that’s why the BetMGM divisional odds have Dallas favored. 

There are just a lot of questions for the Cowboys to answer first.

OFFSEASON GRADE

Finally the Cowboys got off the franchise tag treadmill with Dak Prescott and signed him to a massive deal. We can have a never-ending debate over whether Prescott was “worth” $40 million a season, but that’s what the Cowboys had to pay to keep him. The Cowboys didn’t do much to address the backup QB spot after Andy Dalton signed with the Chicago Bears. Defensively, the Cowboys signed outside linebacker Tarell Basham, former Falcons safeties Keanu Neal (who will likely fill more of a linebacker role) and Damontae Kazee, and defensive linemen Brent Urban and Carlos Watkins. Most of those players weren’t expensive; Neal was the only one to get $4 million a year. That doesn’t mean they can’t contribute, but it’s hard to say any will be big difference makers. The Cowboys lost cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who the Bengals felt was worth $21.75 million over three years. Dallas used their first six picks (all in the top 115 overall) on defense, including linebacker Micah Parsons in the first round. The Cowboys needed to invest heavily in defense in the draft, but it’s uncomfortable to depend on rookies past the first round to turn around your defense. Maybe the additions fit very well right away, but it’s hard to be too optimistic yet.

Grade: C

QUARTERBACK REPORT

Dak Prescott says he’s good to go. He said in late May he was ready to play in a game. He said a brutal ankle injury that ended his 2020 season isn’t on his mind anymore.

“I’ve buried the injury, honestly,” Prescott said, according to the team’s site. “From the point of practice, from the point of just moving forward and going about my life, I’ve buried it. I’ve buried it mentally. Put it on the tombstone.”

That’s well and good, and certainly better than hearing how the injury is still bothering him. But with all athletes coming back from a major injury, it doesn’t matter what is said in the offseason. We don’t know if Prescott will lose any mobility, and that’s one reason he became a top-end quarterback. We don’t know how Prescott will respond until we see him in games that count. The good news is that all signs so far are positive.

ODDS BREAKDOWN

The Cowboys’ win total at BetMGM is 9.5, and as you can probably tell from their ranking here, I’ll be on the under. It’s not out of the range of realistic outcomes that Dallas is a 10-win team, but the Cowboys went 6-10 last season and they didn’t make many major additions. Sure, Dak Prescott’s injury was a big blow last season, but Dallas would have been 0-4 with him if not for the Falcons’ ridiculous collapse in Week 2. I just have too many questions to assume a huge rebound for Dallas.

FANTASY TAKE

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “It might seem silly to discount Ezekiel Elliott entering his age-26 season, but remember he’s already played five years and logged 1,413 regular-season carries. Windows seldom stay open as long as we want with running backs. Remember how quickly things went bad for Todd Gurley? Remember when David Johnson was on the cover of magazines? It gets late early at this position.

“Elliott was a mediocre per-play back last year, averaging just 4.0 a carry and 6.5 a catch — both career lows. The Cowboys no longer have a dominant offensive line. And the passing game looks much stronger than the running game, with three dynamic receivers and a potential MVP candidate in QB Dak Prescott. The Pokes aren’t going to mothball Zeke, but he probably isn’t the featured piece of the offense any longer — and the team has a solid backup in Tony Pollard.

Elliott’s ADP is 8.4 in early Yahoo drafts, which feels about right, but he’s more reactive pick than proactive pick for me. With high profile running backs, I like to go after guys on their first contract, players who probably hadn’t had their best season yet. We can’t say that about Elliott these days.”

STAT TO REMEMBER

In Ezekiel Elliott’s first four seasons he averaged 96.5 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. His production fell off in a big way last season. Elliott averaged 65.3 yards per game and 4 yards per carry. Backup Tony Pollard looked better at times. Elliott had 1,169 carries through those first four seasons. Is he wearing down already after that heavy workload? Or did Elliott struggle last season because three fantastic offensive linemen barely played due to injury and the loss of Dak Prescott hindered the whole offense? We don’t know yet. We’re getting a lot of “best shape of his life” rhetoric this offseason, which is meaningless, but this is an important season for Elliott and he seems to realize it.

BURNING QUESTION

Is Micah Parsons the answer on defense?

Aside from DeMarcus Lawrence and perhaps Jaylon Smith, the Cowboys lack blue-chip talent on defense. They didn’t do much to address the pass rush opposite Lawrence, apparently hoping Randy Gregory is the answer. The run defense was miserable last season and there are still questions in the secondary too. Dallas’ big move was taking Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons with the 12th overall pick. Cowboys fans might have been hoping for cornerback Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain II, but when they went in the top 10, Dallas got a playmaking linebacker instead. With more questions about Leighton Vander Esch, who has been injured and didn’t have his fifth-year option picked up, the Cowboys should have Parsons in a prominent role right away. One of those elite cornerbacks might have helped more, but Parsons could have an impact. He is BetMGM’s favorite to win defensive rookie of the year, at +400 odds. The Cowboys need him to have that type of rookie season.

BEST CAse SCENARIO

I liked the Cowboys before last season and many of the same reasons apply to 2021. Dallas’ offense could be the best in the NFL if everything goes right. There are endless playmakers and, with health, a great offensive line and a prolific quarterback. If going from Mike Nolan to Dan Quinn is a huge upgrade for the defense (and it could very well be), then Dallas might pair a No. 1 offense with a middle-of-the-road defense. That would be enough to win the NFC East and maybe even win a couple playoff games. The oddsmakers certainly like the Cowboys’ upside.

NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

You can also talk yourself into the Cowboys being terrible. Dak Prescott is no sure thing to return 100 percent, and neither are Tyron Smith, Zack Martin or La’el Collins. Ezekiel Elliott might be on the downside after massive usage his first four seasons. That does happen faster than we anticipate with running backs. The defense was miserable last season and Dallas is expecting low-cost free agents and a bunch of rookies to help turn it around. I don’t think Mike McCarthy will get fired in midseason because Jerry Jones is usually more patient than that, but by the end of the season we could have questions about McCarthy coming back in 2022 and what Dallas will do with some aging, high-priced stars. It would be really disappointing if this core didn’t make at least one NFC championship game.

THE CRYSTAL BALL SEZ…

I think Dak Prescott will be fine, but just about everything else that worries me. The defense has a long way to go to be respectable and Mike McCarthy is looking more and more like he hit the jackpot coaching Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think the Cowboys will be awful because the offense will outscore a few teams, but I don’t get why they’re such heavy favorites to win the NFC East. They have to hit too many green lights for me to pick them as a playoff team.

NEW YORK GIANTS

If QB DANIEL JONES flops, it won’t be for a lack of hard work.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

The upcoming season is a big one for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.

The sixth pick of the 2019 draft, Jones has been up-and-down in his two seasons in the league. While he dealt with a significant hamstring injury last year, the quarterback finished with 2,943 yards passing with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 14 games. He also rushed for 423 yards with a TD.

But the Giants have to decide whether to pick up Jones’ fifth-year option after the season and extend their commitment to him through 2023.

During a Thursday interview on the Rich Eisen Show, teammate Saquon Barkley said he’s expecting Jones to continue to be himself despite the raised stakes.

“I really don’t want to speak for Daniel, but just knowing Daniel, it is what it is. He has an amazing work ethic,” Barkley said. “I think anyone in the facility can see that clear as day. He’s a guy that’s going to come into work and is a guy that’s going to lead you and is a guy that’s going to compete. So I think that’s his mindset, is come in and try to get one percent better every day and lead this team.”

New York has compiled an 8-18 record in games that Jones has started — though nearly all of those in 2020 were without Barkley. If the Giants’ have their best offensive player for the entire upcoming season, it’ll make Jones’ job easier. And that should give the Giants a clear picture as to whether or not Jones is their quarterback of the future.

Also during his Eisen show appearance, RB SAQUON BARKLEY was vague about his own health.  Nick Shook of ProFootballTalk.com:

Saquon Barkley continues on his path back to the field following an ACL tear suffered early in the 2020 season, but he’s not yet at the point where he can place a target on when he’ll return.

Barkley appeared on the Rich Eisen Show on Thursday and expertly dodged multiple questions about when exactly he might be ready to play in 2021. The running back relied on the tried and true motto of “taking it day by day” and sprinkling in a dash of “trying to get one percent better every single day.”

That’s far from definitive, so Eisen dug deeper by asking Barkley if he might end up on the physically unable to perform list. Barkley bobbed and weaved, floating like a butterfly but choosing to avoid stinging like a bee.

“I think I know better than that,” Barkley said when prompted to speak about his injury. “I’ve been in the NFL for a little bit now. I think I learned a thing or two.”

Barkley has relied on “listening to my body” for at least a month now when asked about his status in his recovery and rehab process. So far, his body isn’t telling him enough for him to make a declaration beyond continuing to take it a day at a time.

The Giants are hoping he’ll be ready to go by the time the 2021 season begins, because they’ll need his contributions if they hope to contend for the NFC East title in 2021. Daniel Jones is entering a pivotal season as well, and having Barkley lining up alongside him will only improve their chances.

For now, though, it’s merely that: a hope. With training camp still weeks away, Barkley has some time left to continue on his rehab path. By the time August ends, we should have a better idea of where he stands.

NEW ORLEANS

GM Mickey Loomis says that the Saints were interested in QB TOM BRADY last year only if QB DREW BREES decided to retire.

The first Sunday of the 2020 regular season featured the first of what would be three battles between Tom Brady and Drew Brees as quarterbacks in the same division. That day also included multiple Sunday Splash! reports suggesting that the Saints wanted to sign Brady — even after Brees decided to play again in 2020.

Appearing on Adam Schein’s podcast, Saints G.M. Mickey Loomis addressed the question of whether his team pursued Brady in 2020.

“All I can say is this,” Loomis told Schein. “As soon as Drew made the decision that he was gonna play again last year, then that’s the route we were going. That’s probably all I’m gonna say to that.”

So why was there a sense that Brady was considering the Saints, even after Brees had said he’d return to New Orleans? The explanation could be as simple as this. Don Yee represents both Brady and Saints coach Sean Payton. Once it became clear that Brady was bound for the Buccaneers, propping up the Saints as a potential destination would help leverage Tampa Bay to pay more money and/or make more concessions — such as free and full access to the team and its facilities for TB12 guru Alex Guerrero, pandemic notwithstanding.

If Brady was going to Tampa Bay anyway, why shouldn’t Payton have helped Brady make it as expensive as it could be for the Bucs to get him?

Ultimately, the Saints and Brees beat Brady and the Bucs twice during the season, including a Sunday night blowout in Tampa. In the single-elimination setting, however, Brady and company got it done.

SAN FRANCISCO

Sean McVay did not think the Niners were being mysterious about QB TREY LANCE.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

When the San Francisco 49ers traded a bundle of draft picks to move into the No. 3 overall slot in the 2021 NFL Draft, questions about which player the Niners targeted flew with fury in the weeks leading up to the selection.

Most of the speculation was which quarterback San Francisco sold the farm to bring in alongside Jimmy Garoppolo. Mac Jones versus Trey Lance was the hottest April debate.

At the time, there was another, much, much smaller faction of observers who thought the Niners might shock the world and select Florida tight end Kyle Pitts. The thought process went that the TE was perfect for Kyle Shanahan’s system, and pairing him with George Kittle would make the Niners’ offense nearly unstoppable with what it could do through the air and on the ground.

During an episode of theFlying Coach podcast with Sean McVay and Peter Schrager, the Rams coach said he was among those who thought Shanahan — who joined for this taping — was going the Pitts route.

“I thought there was a possibility that Kyle was gonna go Pitts at three,” McVay said, via 49ers Web Zone. “In all seriousness, because he’s such a visionary. I’m telling you, I didn’t think it was going to be a crazy thought because you go back to when New England had the two-tight end set, and they were doing things totally different. You think about what Kittle. And then, the thing that makes sense is that, hey, Jimmy’s produced all the way. This isn’t a production thing. This is an availability thing that you’re saying, ‘We can’t have that,’ like, all the things.

“But I was like, ‘If it’s not Mac Jones — and I hadn’t studied Trey, just because there wasn’t a lot of film exposure going back a couple of years, and we weren’t in that market, so I didn’t know other than watching him throw at his pro day that you’re saying, ‘Alright, you can see a lot of the things that you would like and that would make sense.'”

In the end, the Niners selected Lance, who Shanahan afterward insisted was his choice all along, despite the Jones speculation. The Niners’ secrecy had everyone fooled, as Lance himself didn’t know he would be the selection until his phone rang on draft night. Pitts ended up going No. 4 overall to Atlanta.

McVay noted that his good buddy even had their division rivals second-guessing.

“He had everybody fooled, and he got the people that he knew we’d be looking to fool us as well,” McVay said of Shanahan.

KANSAS CITY

QB PATRICK MAHOMES says his toe is a go.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The toe injury that ruffled Patrick Mahomes’ postseason run is well in the rearview as we await Kansas City Chiefs training camp later this month.

After undergoing toe surgery, Mahomes participated in the Chiefs’ offseason program, indicating he was on track to be fully healthy come Week 1. In June, the MVP signal-caller noted that he still had rehab work to do, but could have played a game if necessary.

This week at the American Century Celebrity Golf Championship Tournament in South Lake Tahoe, Nevada, Mahomes reiterated that he’s fully healthy.

“The toe’s feeling great,” he said during an interview with NFL Network’s Patrick Claybon airing Thursday on NFL Total Access. “I’m out here playing golf, being able to walk around the course. I’ve been running, cutting, jumping, throwing, doing it all. So I’m just excited to get back to training camp and have another chance to make a run at it and win the Super Bowl this year.”

Mahomes suffered the toe injury during the Chiefs’ playoff run and underwent surgery in the ensuing weeks. He shed a walking boot during the spring and participated in the club’s mandatory minicamp in June. There have been zero hiccups along the way.

The Chiefs made back-to-back Super Bowls, winning in 2020 and losing this February. Aside from doing rehab, Mahomes said this offseason isn’t much different than how he’s approached every year.

“It’s different in the sense that you don’t have the parades and all that different type of stuff,” he noted. “But I think the beautiful thing about the NFL is every single year, you start from scratch. You have to come in, you have to put in the work to try to get to the big game and try to win it. And so for us, win or lose that Super Bowl the last two years, we still have that same mentality of we’re going to start from scratch and build and try to find a way to get back to that game.”

LAS VEGAS

WR HENRY RUGGS has yet to prove himself worthy of first round selection.  Jon Gruden knows that.  Vic Tafur of The Athletic:

Head coach Jon Gruden is well aware of all the criticism of the Raiders’ choice to make Ruggs the first receiver taken among last year’s elite wideout draft class.  Despite that lofty draft status Ruggs was used mainly as a decoy by Gruden in 2020, receiving two screens on 581 offensive snaps and finishing behind running back Josh Jacobs in targets (45 to 43). There is some momentum here as Gruden mentioned 22-year-old Ruggs looking “much better” in his second year at offseason workouts. With Nelson Agholor’s team-high 79.3 air yards and additional 5.1 targets per game vacated from last year, there is a fruitful role available for Ruggs to step into if Gruden discovers how to use him over free agent pickup John Brown. 

PITTSBURGH

The NFL would not allow the Steelers to have their traditional training camp at St. Vincent’s College.  But the team will allow fans to observe them 12 times at Heinz Field.

Turns out, Steelers Nation will be able to take in training camp after all. Just about 50 miles farther west than usual.

At least a dozen Pittsburgh Steelers preseason practices between July 28 and Aug. 18 will be open to the public at Heinz Field. Tickets are free but must be reserved, according to a Thursday Steelers-released statement of its camp schedule.

This is the second consecutive year training camp will be conducted at Heinz Field after 54 consecutive camps were staged at Saint Vincent College in Unity Township. Last year’s, though, was closed to the public out of concerns related to covid-19.

As required while the coronavirus pandemic lingers, the Steelers had submitted a plan to the NFL and its union to hold its camp at Saint Vincent again in 2021. But that plan was not approved.

Typically in recent years, the Steelers had moved one camp practice back from Westmoreland County to Heinz Field and made it open to the public. This year, with no sessions at Chuck Noll Field at Saint Vincent, the Steelers elected to make the majority of their camp sessions open to the public.

The only Heinz Field practices not open are ones on a day that precedes a preseason game (Aug. 4 and Aug. 11) and a session the day camp breaks Aug. 19. The team additionally has not determined plans for its July 30 practice.

The first 10 practices announced as open to the public will begin 1:30 p.m. All will feature open concession stands and the team pro shop in the stadium.

By rule in the league/NFLPA collective bargaining agreement, the Steelers are permitted to open camp July 22. The Steelers will practice at their UPMC Rooney Sports Complex facility on the South Side for a week before moving across town to Heinz Field. The South Side practices are not open to the public.

THIS AND THAT

QBs WHO WILL MOVE UP IN 2021

Chris Trapasso of CBSSports.com offers his best guess on what young QB will do a “JOSH ALLEN” in 2021:

In 2017, Carson Wentz went bananas in his second year and was the front-runner for the MVP award before an injury derailed his season. The next year, it was Patrick Mahomes who leaped forward in his second NFL campaign, threw 50 touchdowns and won MVP. The following season it was Lamar Jackson who made the Year 2 ascension.

In 2020, the NFL didn’t have a second-year quarterback suddenly appear on MVP watch lists, but Bills quarterback Josh Allen got MVP votes in his third season.

That got me thinking. What young quarterback can make a Mahomes, Jackson, or Allen-type rise to superstardom in 2021? Instead of just listing one, I’ve listed the youthful passers set to start in order of likelihood to make that type of franchise-changing ascension, going from least likely to most likely.

Unlikely

5. Drew Lock, Broncos

The last sentence I wrote in my season outlook piece for Lock reads “he’ll sniff the top 20 in some quarterback rankings at the end of the year.”

That’s my prediction. Also, in that piece, I suggested there’s a legitimate chance Lock doesn’t even win the starting job because he’s in a quarterback competition with Teddy Bridgewater. And Bridgewater’s ultra-conservative, turnover-averse style will likely play well with coaching during training camp and the preseason. That hurdle alone almost solely landed Lock in the “unlikely” category.

And being a top-20 quarterback shouldn’t ever be labeled as a “breakout” season. In Lock’s case, such improvement would simply be advancement out of dreaded bust territory.

Lock was actually right around league average in most categories from a clean pocket last season, and thanks to a 2018 Pro Football Focus study, we know clean-pocket play is more stable than production while under pressure. Yet Lock has light years to go when the heat is on inside the pocket. Only 47.7% of his throws under pressure were on target last season. The NFL average was 63.3%. Gross.

If he wins the starting job — big if there — Lock will get star wideout Courtland Sutton back, and the Broncos offensive line has become respectable in pass protection. I’m still immensely concerned about what Lock will do in terms of decision-making and accuracy the 30% (or so) of the time he’s pressured in 2021. 

4. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Tagovailoa was bad as a rookie. No way around it. Examining his film or first-year profile from an analytic perspective and an antsy, mostly overwhelmed quarterback is the only objective takeaway.

When protected well or not, Tagovailoa struggled.

Now, the Dolphins have one of the AFC’s better rosters, and they drafted supremely explosive and twitchy wideout Jaylen Waddle at No. 6 overall in the 2021 draft. But the offensive line only added one new notable piece — Liam Eichenberg, Round 2 — to a group that was solid but far from spectacular a season ago.

Last year, Tagovailoa had old-school spread enthusiast Chan Gailey at offensive coordinator — an experiment that worked in that Tagovailoa got the ball out quickly but didn’t in that the offense lacked downfield aggression and creativity. This year, the Dolphins decided on a co-coordinator dynamic. Eric Studesville has never called plays before in the NFL, and George Godsey had a short stint with play-calling duties with the Texans before Bill O’Brien of all people revoked them in 2016. Doesn’t sound promising.

I like the skill-position group — Waddle, DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki — and the Dolphins defensive pieces. As a team they’re going to be good. I didn’t see any noteworthy long stretch of play from Tagovailoa in Year 1 to believe he has what it takes to make a sizable step forward in his second NFL season. His limited athleticism and arm strength hinders what he can do outside of structure, although with that collection of pass catchers, he should see more open receivers in 2021 than he did a year ago.

Don’t be shocked

3. Daniel Jones, Giants

This is the second straight year for Jones in the “not out of the question” category. The jump didn’t occur last season. On film, I thought he was better as an NFL sophomore than during his rookie season. The statistics were about the same.

But Giants GM Dave Gettleman was a man on a mission this offseason, a mission to prove to doubters Jones was indeed worthy of the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph were signed. Explosive gadget weapon Kadarius Toney was grabbed in Round 1. The defense was bolstered via the draft and by way of Adoree’ Jackson being added to the secondary.

Jones dropped a dime on 51% of his throws made 20-plus yards down the field in 2020, nearly 10 percentage points higher than league average. And Golladay is one of the league’s premier contested-catch targets. Despite 4.50 speed, he begins his career with the Giants with a large 16.9 career yards-per-grab average.

Darius Slayton enters Year 3 having established a fine rapport with Jones, particularly down the field. Sterling Shepard is a reliable possession out of the slot. And Saquon Barkley is back.

2. Kyler Murray, Cardinals

I see your logical argument Murray shouldn’t be included in this piece because he’s already “broken out,” and I raise you that his passer rating of 94.1 was lower than league average (95.2) among qualifying starters in 2020.

Going a step further — Bruce Nolan of Buffalo Rumblings, devised a quarterback evaluation formula called QB STEW, which takes seven different quarterback evaluation metrics from varying websites and publications and averages a passer’s finish in each rankings to get down to one number. For example, if a quarterback was the best in every metric, his QB STEW would be 1.0. Murray’s QB STEW of 15.14 ranked 13th in 2020.

He just has not played like a No. 1 overall selection operating the identical offense he ran in college through two years in the NFL. Has he fallen way short of the expectations that should come with those two facts? No. But he hasn’t exceeded them.

In short — Murray is still a “breakout waiting to happen” candidate. And the rationale for him being this high on the list is simple — he’s in Year 3 in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. He’s in Year 2 with DeAndre Hopkins and the stupidly twitched up Rondale Moore was picked in the second round. This is the year for Murray. If it’s not, he might hover right around middle of the pack of the quarterback pecking order for a while.

The most likely

1. Joe Burrow, Bengals

Burrow got his guy — Ja’Marr Chase — in Cincinnati. How amazing of a reunion. He also has the burgeoning Tee Higgins — who quietly had over 900 yards at nearly 14 yards per grab as a rookie — along with Tyler Boyd, who has established himself as one of the league’s steadiest slot options over the middle and at the intermediate level.

The offensive line — which, in terms of pressure rate was actually right around league average last season — will be better in 2021 thanks to the additions of veteran Riley Reiff and second-round draft selection Jackson Carman. Plus, Cincinnati will get Jonah Williams in his second year on the field. 

Burrow doesn’t have freaky athleticism or arm talent, yet he maximizes his physical capabilities as an improviser, and it’s a reliable aspect of his game. Burrow needs to improve his downfield accuracy, and that will come in his second season running the show thanks in large part to Chase’s presence and a bigger, stronger Higgins on the outside.

Will Burrow’s game be elevated to MVP-caliber status? Not quite. But the decisive, accurate passer will be viewed by some as a top-10 quarterback at season’s end.

2022 DRAFT

Dane Brugler of The Athletic with a deep dive into five QBs coming to the NFL Draft next spring:

At this time last summer, there was an easy top-three quarterback ranking for the upcoming NFL Draft class with Trevor Lawrence as the clear No. 1 followed by Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Zach Wilson and Mac Jones joined the trio, giving the draft five first-round quarterbacks (only the second time in NFL history five quarterbacks were drafted in the top-15 picks).

While Lawrence, Lance and Fields were easy bets to be first-rounders a year in advance, the projection of the 2022 class of quarterbacks is not nearly as transparent and the excitement level among NFL scouts doesn’t match last year’s group. Nonetheless, college football is well stocked with talent at the quarterback position, and it will be interesting to track which passers ascend throughout the season.

We kick off our summer scouting previews with a look at the top draft-eligible quarterback prospects:

(Note: Asterisk represents draft-eligible underclassmen. Heights and weights are what NFL teams have on file for each player and may differ from school rosters.)

1. *Sam Howell, North Carolina (6-1, 220)

Best trait: Composure

Howell is above average in several areas of playing the quarterback position, but his unrelenting composure, regardless of situation or score, specifically stood out on his film. He consistently stands tall in the face of pressure and looks down the gun barrel with an unflinching toughness to deliver before taking a shot.

A key reason why Howell is one of the best downfield passers in college football is his patience to hang tough in the pocket and allow his receiver to win vertically.

Must improve: Eye manipulation

While Howell is a steady decision-maker, he has a bad habit of locking onto his primary read and leading defenders to his preferred target. He often relies on those preordained reads, which leads to bird-dogging instead of using his eyes as a weapon to manipulate coverages. Some scouts have questioned whether Howell has already hit his developmental ceiling in Phil Longo’s spread, RPO-heavy scheme.

2021 season/2022 NFL Draft outlook

Considered a top-five quarterback recruit in the 2019 class, Howell originally committed to Florida State and was an important piece of ex-coach Willie Taggart’s vision for the Seminoles. However, the North Carolina native flipped to the Tar Heels on signing day, a few weeks after Walt Bell left Tallahassee to become the head coach at Massachusetts and Mack Brown returned as the head coach in Chapel Hill. Howell started as a true freshman and has been one of the most productive passers in college football the last two seasons with 74 total touchdowns (68 passing, six rushing) and 7,227 passing yards.

From his competitive mentality to the pocket mannerisms and body type, Howell looks like Baker Mayfield 2.0 — in fact, this might be the easiest quarterback prospect comparison I have ever done. He requires continued development with his passing reads, but he delivers with confidence and touch and shows the functional mobility to maneuver a muddy pocket or create plays when flushed. Not only does Howell have the arm strength, accuracy and toughness to be a productive NFL passer, but his slow heartbeat is what ties all of his talent together — and why he is a projected early first-round pick. One director of scouting for an AFC team said, “If the draft were tomorrow, he’d be the only first-round quarterback on our board.”

2. *Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma (6-0, 209)

Best trait: Natural arm talent

The first and lasting takeaway from Rattler’s tape is his natural arm talent. Whether in structure, under pressure or scrambling, the ball comes out of his hand quickly and easily with both zip and touch. It doesn’t matter if he is hitting the upfield shoulder on a slant or placing the ball over a defender on a deep shot, Rattler’s combination of accuracy, velocity and trajectory is what makes him such a dynamic passer.

There were numerous plays from the Cotton Bowl tape against Florida that help illustrate Rattler’s impressive arm talent.

Must improve: Decision-making

For NFL teams looking for a CEO type of quarterback, Rattler still has much room to grow. Rattler forces the defense to cover every inch of the field because of his arm talent, but his decision-making isn’t quite on the same level. There were times, especially early last season, where he was tardy sorting through his reads, which threw off the play timing and tipped off the defense. But as expected for a redshirt freshman, Rattler showed noticeable improvement with his efficiency and overall play conviction the second half of the season.

2021 season/2022 NFL Draft outlook

A four-year varsity starter in high school, Rattler became the first prep quarterback in the state of Arizona to surpass 11,000 passing yards. He earned five stars as a recruit and the offers poured in from Alabama, Notre Dame and just about every program in the country. However, he forged a connection with Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley very early in the process and committed to the Sooners prior to his junior season at Pinnacle High School. Rattler hit a few rough patches last season as a first-year starter at the college level, but his consistency improved with his playing time.

Since Riley took over as head coach in 2017, Oklahoma has had four starting quarterbacks — two (Mayfield and Kyler Murray) won the Heisman Trophy and were the No. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft. Another (Jalen Hurts) was the Heisman runner-up and a second-round pick. Rattler is the fourth quarterback, and although he is not on that Mayfield/Murray level (yet) as a pro prospect, that might change this season.

3. *Matt Corral, Ole Miss (6-1, 198)

Best trait: Smooth tools

Yes, it is somewhat broad, but Corral plays with a distinguishable smoothness that makes him very intriguing as a quarterback prospect. He plays the position with the tools of a shortstop — quick eyes, agile feet, rapid release. Corral has slightly above-average arm strength to drive the ball or deliver with touch and doesn’t allow small windows to intimidate him. He is the opposite of a stagnant player and his mobility is a key part of his skill set.

Must improve: Stubborn decisions

Corral was responsible for 33 touchdowns last season, but he also had 14 interceptions, including 11 over a two-game span (five vs. LSU; six vs. Arkansas). Those turnovers were often a result of his inconsistent decision-making, forcing throws that simply were not there. Corral can get away with some of his Mahomes-like theatrics with the way he scrambles and adjusts his throwing angles, but he needs to cut down on the low-percentage attempts (even a few no-look passes) that were littered throughout his 2020 game film.

2021 season/2022 NFL Draft outlook

A southern California native, Corral was initially a USC commit before flipping to Florida, ready to shut down his recruitment. However, things changed when Dan Mullen was hired in Gainesville and Corral again decided to make a change, signing with Matt Luke and Ole Miss. After redshirting in 2018, he was part of the quarterback rotation in 2019, but everything changed when Lane Kiffin arrived in 2020 and committed to Corral as his starter. The rising redshirt junior ranked top-five in the FBS in passing yards per game (333.7) and completion percentage (70.9 percent) last season.

Is it too early to rank Corral this high? Probably. Much of his trajectory as a pro prospect depends on his development this season. Corral doesn’t have ideal size (verified 198 pounds) and must cut down on the mental mistakes, but he is an exciting talent with his athletic skill set and creative competitiveness. Year 2 of the Kiffin-Corral partnership in Oxford should be a lot of fun.

4. *Carson Strong, Nevada (6-4, 212)

Best trait: Arm confidence

Some quarterbacks are so irrationally confident in their arms that it becomes a detriment. But Strong is a good example of how arm confidence can be a notable positive. He has laser arm strength — and he knows it, trusting his live arm to drive the ball to every level of the field.

Must improve: Unbalanced mechanics

Strong can get away with throws like the clip above because of his arm, but there are times when he is over-reliant on his upper body and abandons his lower body mechanics. And with his feet disconnected from his upper half, it forces tougher throws and increases the chances of an inaccurate pass. Despite some of his messy mechanics, Strong did a nice job limiting mistakes last season, including a streak of 299 consecutive pass attempts without an interception.

In speaking to several scouts, health is another area that will be of interest to NFL teams. He missed his senior year of high school due to knee surgery and sat out spring practice this past offseason after another surgery on his knee. The combine medicals will heavily factor into Strong’s final draft grade.

2021 season/2022 NFL Draft outlook

Strong put himself on the recruiting radar as a junior in high school and Nevada became his first FBS-level scholarship offer. Several Power 5 scholarships were expected to follow, but he missed his senior year with injury, which allowed the northern California native to fly under the radar. After redshirting in 2018 and becoming the starter in 2019, Strong had a breakout sophomore season for the Wolfpack and was named Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. Over nine games, he finished with 2,858 passing yards, 70.1 percent completions and a 27-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

With Strong at the helm and targets like Romeo Doubs, Elijah Cooks and Cole Turner, Nevada should have one of the best passing offenses in the country this season. Scouts will be locked on Strong as Nevada travels to Berkeley for the season opener against California, a program that boasts one of the best secondaries on the West Coast. The junior quarterback has not faced a Pac-12 opponent since September 2019 when he struggled mightily in a blowout loss to Oregon (his second career start). Although his athleticism, mechanics and durability are all question marks, Strong is well liked with mostly Day 2 draft grades around the league.

5. Malik Willis, Liberty (6-0, 218)

Best trait: Poised athleticism

As both a runner and passer, Willis’ athleticism is what makes him such an exciting talent. He owns the light, quick feet to be elusive as a scrambler or buy time behind the line of scrimmage. Willis’ loose athleticism also shows as a passer, delivering off-platform and adding zip to throws with ease.

Must improve: Ball placement

Throwing a football is like real estate — location, location, location. Willis has shown considerable improvement as a passer, to the point where I would not call him an inaccurate quarterback. However, his ball placement needs to be better for him to take that next step in his development. Willis delivers well to spots, but his precise placement tends to be streaky and not quite ready for the NFL game. Both of his interceptions on the Coastal Carolina tape were a result of his inconsistent placement.

2021 season/2022 NFL Draft outlook

After leading Roswell (Ga.) High to the Class-7A state title game as a senior, Willis signed with Auburn where he served as the backup quarterback to Jarrett Stidham for two seasons (11 for 14 for 69 yards and three total touchdowns). He competed for the starting role during spring practice in 2019 but decided to transfer after he found himself behind Bo Nix on the depth chart. Willis transferred to Liberty and, after sitting out the 2019 season, enjoyed a breakout 2020 campaign, leading the Flames to a 9-1 record with their lone loss coming by one point (at NC State). He finished his junior season with 64.2 percent completions, 2,260 passing yards, 944 rushing yards and 34 total touchdowns (20 passing, 14 rushing).

Willis enters his senior season as one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects in the class. Hugh Freeze tailored Liberty’s run-oriented zone-read offense to fit Willis’ dual-threat skills, creating passing windows while also taking advantage of his athleticism and arm strength. His coaches speak highly of his maturation in the program, and with improved anticipation and ball placement on his tape, Willis will have a chance to turn himself into a top-50 prospect.