The Daily Briefing Thursday, June 16, 2022
THE DAILY BRIEFING
The Commish will virtually stare down the NFL’s congressional inquisitors. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:
The Commissioner will be showing up. Sort of.
According to the NFL, Roger Goodell has accepted the invitation from the U.S. House Committee on Oversight & Reform to testify at a June 22 hearing. However, he won’t be grilled in person. He’ll appear virtually.
“The Oversight Committee was notified this afternoon that Commissioner Goodell has accepted the invitation,” league spokesman Brian McCarthy said via email. “He will appear virtually.”
That won’t really change anything. He’ll still be subject to aggressive questioning, on the Commanders investigation, the flimsy reasoning for not sharing information learned during the investigation, the inexplicable decision to not seek recommendations from attorney Beth Wilkinson, and whatever else the members of the Committees ask him about — from Deshaun Watson to Stephen Ross to Jon Gruden to the league’s insistence on in-house arbitration (hey, I didn’t call it a secret, rigged kangaroo court), and anything else that may come up.
But it will seem far less dramatic with Goodell not in the room, sitting across from a panel of representatives who won’t respond to any non-answer he may offer by moving on to the next topic, but by telling him that he didn’t answer the question.
The Committee’s real target, Washington owner Dan Snyder, will not take advantage of the opportunity. John Keim of ESPN.com says he’s claiming a conflict out of the country:
Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder informed the House Oversight Committee by letter that he won’t testify at its June 22 hearing, saying he would be out of the country, but NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will testify, a league spokesperson told ESPN.
It had been long expected that Snyder would decline to testify. In the four-page letter, attorney Karen Patton Seymour said Snyder was willing to testify but that the committee “is not willing to consider changing the date of the hearing.”
The letter stated that Snyder had a “longstanding Commanders-related business conflict and is out of the country on the first and only date the Committee has proposed for the hearing.”
According to a committee spokesperson, “The Committee intends to move forward with this hearing. We are currently reviewing Mr. Snyder’s letter and will respond.”
A source close to Snyder told ESPN on Wednesday, “Despite months of Mr. Snyder’s cooperation, the Oversight Committee refused to afford the same respect and courtesy by declining multiple reasonable requests surrounding a potential appearance by Mr. Snyder. Mr. Snyder remains willing to continue cooperating with the committee but is unable to attend the June 22 hearing given the committee’s disregard for due process.”
NFC EAST
DALLAS Jerry Jones is thought to be opposed to bringing NFL teams to Austin or San Antonio, hundreds of miles away from Dallas. He’s not going to let another team invade the Metroplex. Jack Baer of YahooSports.com:
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has zero reason to worry about competing with another team in North Texas, but that’s not going to stop him from speaking his mind.
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson made headlines earlier this week when he once again suggested the NFL give the Dallas-Fort Worth area another franchise. Johnson had previously floated the idea of an NFL expansion team coming to town, but he had a different idea this time.
In reaction to news of a brewing Chargers ownership fight, Johnson posted an open invitation for the Chargers to move to Dallas. He suggested the Cotton Bowl and Hensley Field as potential locations for a practice facility or stadium.
We’re going to go ahead and pause here to acknowledge the obvious.
The Dallas-Fort Worth area is not getting another NFL team. For a litany of reasons, first and foremost being that the area probably doesn’t want another NFL team. Because it has the Cowboys. Just about the only people who would want another team in Dallas are the ones whose fortunes are directly tied to the city’s perception of prosperity and growth, like a local mayor who is up for re-election in 2023.
The NFL wouldn’t want another team in Dallas because it also has the Cowboys, the most valuable team in the league by more than a billion dollars per Forbes. The league is not going to want to forego potentially lucrative markets to cannibalize arguably its most powerful owner.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are facing the reality of being the No. 2 team in a saturated sports market, a problem you don’t exactly solve by moving to the NFL market containing the Dallas Cowboys. So you would imagine Dallas is pretty low on their list of preferred destinations should they decide to leave Los Angeles after spending $650 million to move there in the first place.
This should all be obvious to anyone who follows football, and yet, it has become a topic of discussion for Jones, who said exactly what you would expect him to say in an interview with the Dallas Morning News:
“Well, I like the mayor,” Jones told The Dallas Morning News. “I like him personally, but he doesn’t have the depth. He doesn’t have the knowledge that others have regarding how unique Dallas is and how we enjoy the interest in the Cowboys. He wouldn’t want to water that down as it relates to Dallas if he knew as much, and has spent as much time in sports as I have.”
When asked to confirm the NFL has no plans to add another team to Dallas, Jones was affirmative:
“That’s correct,” Jones said. “That is correct. And you just said it. You can be rest assured that you would not have the NFL supporting another team because of the kind of value that the game and the NFL receives of having [the] Dallas Cowboys as one of its marquee teams and again, logic tells you [the NFL] wouldn’t want to water that down.”
Those comments were soon relayed to Johnson by the Morning News, leading to some more cheering for something that will clearly never happen in the NFL as currently constructed:
On Wednesday after being relayed the thoughts of Jones, Mayor Johnson told The News’ Everton Bailey: “I like Jerry Jones a lot, and he has done a great job turning my beloved Cowboys into the most valuable sports franchise on the planet. No team will ever dethrone the Cowboys — but that’s not the point. This region loves football and could certainly support a second team. And as mayor, my job is to grow my city’s economy.
“Having an NFL franchise that is headquartered and at least practices in the City of Dallas would be a major boost to our efforts. I am a diehard Cowboys fan, but I will always fight for my city.”
So the mayor of Dallas wants another NFL team and the owner of the current Dallas NFL team does not. You can guess whose opinion holds more weight at the NFL league office.
WASHINGTON Coach Ron Rivera will not trade WR TERRY McLAURIN. John Keim of ESPN.com:
Washington Commanders coach Ron Rivera expressed optimism that a deal would get done with holdout receiver Terry McLaurin, adding that the team is not going to trade its top wideout just because nothing has been signed yet.
McLaurin missed the first two days of Washington’s mandatory minicamp. He attended workouts earlier in the spring but skipped the voluntary OTA sessions over the past three weeks. McLaurin’s rookie contract expires after the season. He’s seeking a new deal in line with what other top receivers have received this offseason.
Rivera said the team has been talking to McLaurin’s representatives for the past week and that “hopefully it’ll be taken care of in a matter of time. How much time? I don’t know. But it is never contentious, I can promise you that much. We’re feeling pretty good and pretty confident that at some point this will get done.”
That’s why, Rivera said, “We’re not trading Terry … We believe in who Terry is for us and what he can bring to the table.”
After trading for A.J. Brown on the first night of the 2022 NFL draft, the Philadelphia Eagles signed him to a four-year extension worth $25 million per season. The Tennessee Titans had drafted Brown one round ahead of McLaurin in the 2019 draft. McLaurin’s base salary is $2.79 million this season.
Other wide receivers picked in the 2019 draft, such as DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel, also are seeking contract extensions but took different approaches with their teams’ minicamps last week. Metcalf skipped the Seattle Seahawks’ mandatory minicamp last week, while Samuel, who requested a trade earlier this offseason, attended the San Francisco 49ers’ minicamp.
Washington had hoped McLaurin would attend in his role as a team leader, even if he wasn’t going to work out. The Commanders also want him to develop a relationship with new quarterback Carson Wentz, whom he has not yet worked out with on the field.
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA The mental side of the game will not keep rookie QB DESMOND RIDDER from being a success. Scott Bair of AtlantaFalcons.com:
Desmond Ridder works hard at the mental side of his game, often using innovative techniques to help him master scheme.
The former Cincinnati quarterback and Falcons third-round pick has discussed a few of them in recent meetings with the press, including poker chips to help understand formations and pre-snap adjustments.
He talked Tuesday about getting Falcons play calls down by saying them into his voice recorder as he would in a huddle, then playing them back to hear how they sound in headphones, as if he were listening with the speakers in his helmet.
Getting a new scheme down is no easy task, with so much to learn and then apply. Even with extremely hard work, it still takes time.
No one’s handing out progress reports on a process emphasized in the offseason program and continued in camp, but head coach Arthur Smith gave Ridder some praise regarding how he’s doing mentally. What has impressed him about Ridder since he arrived?
“Behind the scenes, the things that he has done, as a rookie, really from the neck up,” Smith said in a Wednesday press conference. “How he’s operating, when we’re doing the rookie walk-throughs, when we do these installations and on the field, and his command. Then you’re betting on some of the physical things you see at times to catch up. He’s light years ahead of most young quarterbacks, in terms of playing from the neck up. I will give him that compliment.”
That’s not necessarily a surprise considering what Smith and the Falcons learned about the accomplished quarterback during the pre-NFL Draft process.
“There’s a lot that goes into the scouting of a player, from the area scout to the national scout telling us how people talk about him,” Smith said. “There’s our experience and the ability to meet with the player and what we took away from that and on film. We were excited about him. That’s why we took him.”
Ridder expected that part of his offseason program to be difficult. He might’ve surprised himself with how well he has picked things up.
“The overall knowledge of the offense – I’m not going to lie, I thought I would come in struggle a little bit,” Ridder said. “We’re almost all the way through all of our installs and putting in all those checks, and I have a good grasp of it. That surprised me, honestly. I’m not saying wouldn’t have picked it up, but I thought it might’ve taken a bit longer, a couple of extra days. I’ve been able to pick up on it pretty smoothly.”
Ridder realized that last week, as the offseason program started wrapping up.
“It was just the flow of it, the way my sentences are coming out in the huddle to the command I have at the line of scrimmage, just seeing the defense and seeing the offense,” Ridder said. “Everything just came to me.
NEW ORLEANS Mike Triplett of ESPN.com says QB JAMEIS WINSTON is positioned for success.
Jarvis Landry pointed across the practice field as if it was planned.
Just as the veteran receiver was telling reporters why quarterback Jameis Winston was one of the main reasons he chose to sign with the New Orleans Saints in free agency, Landry looked around and noticed Winston was the only player remaining on the field about 15 minutes after practice ended.
“Look, I don’t see nobody else out here. This guy’s the last one. That’s who he is,” said Landry, who signed with the team in May. “That’s something you want at that position and a part of your team.
“He’s a leader, man. … Just the conversations that we had, the intent that he’s putting behind the things that he’s saying.”
Winston is heading into his eighth season. Depending on your perspective, you could argue this is a make-or-break season for the former No. 1 overall draft choice — or his best chance yet to thrive as a starting quarterback.
True, the Saints did consider replacing Winston when they aggressively pursued a trade for now Browns Deshaun Watson, who is face 24 civil lawsuits for inappropriate behavior and sexual assault during massage sessions. But everything they’ve done since has furthered their commitment to Winston, 28, as he recovers from a torn left ACL he suffered on Oct. 31.
New Orleans signed him to a two-year deal worth $28 million plus incentives, with $21 million in guarantees. Then, instead of adding a potential long-term replacement in the draft, the Saints bolstered Winston with both wide receiver Chris Olave and left tackle Trevor Penning in Round 1 while trading away their first-round pick in the quarterback-rich 2023 draft class.
Throw in the expected return of All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas from the ankle injury that wiped out his entire 2021 season, and Winston’s top three receivers should be upgrades.
“This team that we’re building is electric, so I’m just excited about that,” said Winston, who has used the words “excited” and “grateful” countless times this offseason.
“I’m happy for the opportunity that was presented to me, and I look forward to really building on that opportunity and taking advantage of it,” said Winston, who stressed how meaningful it is for him to head into this summer without being in a daily competition for the job as he was with Taysom Hill last year.
But Winston said that’s as much about getting the regular practice reps with his teammates as it is about any sort of status symbol. While Winston said it’s meaningful for him to have a “certain type of ownership” over the leadership role he inherited from former Saints legend Drew Brees, he was quick to insist, “I’m always gonna be in a competition.”
“It is promising when you see the picks that we have and how this team is building,” Winston said. “But, you know, when I said it feels good not to be in a competition — I’m always competing.”
Winston has participated in practice throughout OTAs and minicamp, seven months after having surgery to repair his knee. He is wearing a protective brace, which he said he plans to wear throughout the season. And he is not yet participating in full-team drills while still being limited from some activities like rolling out to make a play.
But Winston is doing pretty much everything else on the field and insists he is “way” ahead of schedule.
Winston said he is happy to take things slowly and “do this the right way.” But he didn’t want to miss out on spending this time around his teammates because he said that’s what he missed most during the final two months last season.
“He loves his teammates genuinely,” said running back Mark Ingram II, the latest in a long line of Saints teammates over the past two years to share that sentiment.
“He’s the man. I’m happy he’s our Q,” Ingram said. “He’s just a great dude, man — great quarterback, great leader, super talented. I’m excited for the year he’s gonna have.
“He still has like a super chip on his shoulder. He wants to improve, he wants to get better, he wants to be the best. That’s the mindset that a lot of us have in this locker room.”
Coach Dennis Allen and longtime Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. both mentioned Winston’s infectious energy and leadership presence, something former coach Sean Payton also praised.
But obviously Carmichael’s top task will be to maximize Winston’s strengths while continuing to eliminate the turnover issues that plagued him during his first five seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Last year was nearly a perfect balance. Winston went 5-2 as a starter while throwing 14 touchdown passes with three interceptions and a career-high passer rating of 102.8. If he keeps up those ratios, his next contract will be a blockbuster.
At the same time, however, Winston completed 59% of his passes and averaged 186 passing yards in his six complete games while the Saints relied heavily on their defense and some conservative offensive game plans.
The improvements at wide receiver and a healthier offensive line should help boost those numbers. But Winston has also acknowledged he wants to improve his “intermediate accuracy” – especially in an offense that will feature Thomas, Landry and pass-catching running back Alvin Kamara.
So far, Winston’s showing good signs on the practice field. He said it helps that he was limited to short and intermediate throws in the early stages of recovery.
“He’s worked his tail off this offseason getting ready to go and being a big part of communicating and sharing his thoughts about how he sees things, and we’re excited to get going,” Carmichael said. “He played, and he managed the game [last season], and he knew what it was gonna take to win those games. Everything wasn’t perfect – there were things that we’re all gonna grow from.
“But I thought he did a good job in his preparation, and he’s obviously a great team guy.”
NFC WEST
ARIZONA In addition to QB KYLER MURRAY, the Cardinals are aspiring to get a new contract done with WR MARQUISE “HOLLYWOOD” BROWN. Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:
New Cardinals wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown still has two years remaining on his rookie contract, but the Cardinals hope to lock him up beyond that.
Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury said the team views Brown as a player who will remain in Arizona for many years to come.
“Yeah, we’d love to get it done,” Kingsbury told USA Today. “Hollywood is a guy that we see as a long-term answer.”
The wide receiver contract market has exploded this offseason, and Brown will surely expect a big payday. The Cardinals surely knew when they traded a first-round draft pick to the Ravens for Brown and a third-round pick that they’d need to be willing to pay a lot to keep Brown around for the long run.
AFC NORTH
PITTSBURGH Big money for S MINKAH FITZPATRICK, who is still only 25 years old. Joe Rutter in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:
The Pittsburgh Steelers made two-time All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick the highest-paid player at his position Wednesday, signing him to a five-year contract that runs through 2026.
ESPN reported the four additional years on Fitzpatrick’s contract — he already was signed to a fifth-year option for 2022 — average $18.4 million and include $36 million guaranteed at signing.
Seattle’s Jamal Adams was the NFL’s highest-paid safety with a contract that averages $17.5 million.
Fitzpatrick’s contract is the first major signing for new general manager Omar Khan, who replaced Kevin Colbert in late May.
“Minkah is one of the top safeties in the NFL, and we are thrilled he will be in Pittsburgh through at least the next five years,” Khan said in a statement released by the team. “When we traded for him, we knew he was going to be an integral part of our defense, and we look forward to that continuing as we prepare for the upcoming season.”
It is the second year in a row the Steelers signed one of their defensive stars to a record-setting deal. In September, T.J. Watt agreed to a five-year contract that included $80 million guaranteed, making him at the time the league’s highest-paid defensive player.
Fitzpatrick, 25, is entering his fourth season with the Steelers. He was named a first-team All-Pro in 2019, his first year with the team following his early-season trade from Miami, and again in 2020.
“I am still kind of in shock right now,” Fitzpatrick told the team website after signing his deal. “It’s a blessing. I am really excited. It’s just the beginning. I am appreciative. I am thankful. Now I just want to keep on chopping. I love the history here. What it stands for. The standard we are held to. The standard Coach (Mike) Tomlin holds us to, on the field and off the field. The standard of winning playoff games, division titles and championship games.”
Fitzpatrick has started 59 of 64 games in his NFL career, including 46 games with the Steelers. He was scheduled to earn $10.612 million this season under terms of his fifth-year option, making him the 13th-highest-paid safety until Wednesday.
“I definitely feel like he deserves it,” strong safety Terrell Edmunds said last week after the conclusion of minicamp. “He deserves to get that top dollar. He’s put in the work for it, the stats and everything show. He definitely deserves the money.”
Two games into the 2019 season, the Steelers made the uncharacteristic decision to trade a first-round draft choice to Miami in return for Fitzpatrick, the No. 11 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The last time the Steelers didn’t have a first-round selection was 1967.
Unhappy with his role in Miami, Fitzpatrick welcomed a trade to the Steelers and made an immediate impact on the defense. In 14 games with the Steelers that season, Fitzpatrick had five interceptions, one of which he returned 96 yards for a touchdown. He also had one forced fumble and two fumble recoveries for the Steelers.
AFC SOUTH
INDIANAPOLIS S KAHRI WILLS, a starter, is retiring to go into the ministry. ESPN.com:
Willis announced Wednesday that he is retiring after three seasons in the NFL to pursue a future in ministry.”With much prayer and deliberation, I have elected to officially retire from the NFL as I endeavor to devote the remainder of my life to the further advancement of the Gospel of Jesus Christ,” Willis, 26, wrote in an Instagram post. “I thank all of my family, friends and those who have supported me on this journey thus far and I look forward to your continued support through the next phase of my life. … I am both humbled and excited to pursue the holy call that God has for my life which brings me much joy and purpose. Thank you all for your support over the years…”
TENNESSEE WR TRAYLON BURKS, the 2022 1st round pick, has asthma. Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:
The Titans traded away wide receiver A.J. Brown with the expectation that first-round rookie receiver Treylon Burks could step in for him immediately. The early returns aren’t looking great.
Burks had to sit out at Organized Team Activities as he dealt with problems related to asthma, and he has missed practices in minicamp as well.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel said Burks is “unavailable” without giving any specific explanation of what the issue is.
A first-round draft pick is a long-term investment, and it’s way too early to draw any conclusions about what kind of investment Burks will prove to be. But it has to be a disappointment that Burks isn’t able to participate during the offseason, given what high hopes the Titans have for him.
AFC EAST
NEW YORK JETS The smart money thinks that NFL odds have not kept up with the improvements made by the Jets. Brendan Vander Vliet of JetsXFactor.com:
NFL bettors are loving what Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh accomplished this off-season.
Sportsbooks are taking loads of money on the New York Jets this year in a few different ways.
It seems like the Jets always win the off-season. For Jets fans, this is usually the most fun and positive part of the year. Whether it is a massive amount of cap space available or a top pick in the NFL draft, the Jets always have ways to get better. Every year, fans convince themselves that the coming year will be different and that the Jets will make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
Those dreams usually do not come to fruition. However, it seems this year might just be different according to NFL bettors.
David Purdum, an ESPN writer covering all things gambling, is reporting the Jets are attracting a lot of money in multiple different ways.
“More bets have been placed and more money wagered on the Jets to win over 5.5 games at DraftKings than on any other team’s win total,” Purdum wrote on the New York Jets. “The Jets have attracted more bets to win the AFC East at PointsBet Sportsbook than the favored Bills and more money than the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots combined.”
At DraftKings, the Jets are currently listed at +2200 odds to win the AFC East.
Purdum adds, “The Jets have received more bets to make the playoffs at Caesars Sportsbook than any other team.”
DraftKings has the Jets listed at +700 odds to make the playoffs. Only the Texans (+1600) and Falcons (+800) have worse odds.
Even after the Jets finished 4-13 last season, the Jets seem poised for a breakout season. They brought in quality veterans in free agency, including D.J. Reed and Laken Tomlinson, to mesh with the young nucleus of guys already on the roster.
Sauce Gardner, Garret Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson were all added in the first round of the NFL draft while Breece Hall and Jeremy Ruckert were added on day two. All of these young pieces should make a big impact come the start of the NFL season.
The Jets are headed in the right direction and have the pieces to compete for a playoff spot in 2022. Now it comes down to Robert Saleh and his coaching staff to put their players in the right position to succeed.
Whatever happens this year, Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh have NFL bettors feeling optimistic that this Jets team can be different.
If 2022 is like most seasons, somewhere there is a team or teams that will make a big turnaround. The Jets, and the Lions and Giants, would be our best candidates from the bottom of the barrel. The Dolphins, Vikings and Eagles would be the teams we think could leap up from the middle of the pack. – – – The Big Bust, T MEKHI BECTON, wants his nickname to be a joke, not fact. ESPN.com:
Becton, nicknamed “Big Ticket,” delivered a big message Wednesday to his critics. “I’m going to make them eat their words,” he said at the conclusion of a two-day minicamp. Becton, who has battled injuries and a weight problem since his promising rookie year in 2020, sounded determined to change the narrative. In his first media availability since last September, he showed up wearing a blue T-shirt that read: “Big Bust.”
THIS AND THAT
TOP 10 SKILL POSITION GROUPS Ted Nguyen of The Athletic provides a ranked list of the top 10 groups of skill position players (does not count QB) entering 2022. We found #10 to be a surprise:
Teams are in an arms race, swinging big trades and giving huge contracts to add more weapons to their inventory. Creating explosive plays in the passing game is how you win in today’s NFL. In order to have a truly explosive offense, teams need more than just one true threat — they need at least two, plus good complementary players. Without considering the quarterback or offensive line, here are my top 10 groups of offensive skill players.
In each chart, each player is color-coded:
Red: Elite Blue: Very good Green: Above-average starter Black: Average
1. Cincinnati Bengals
X Ja’Marr Chase Z Tee Higgins S Tyler Boyd TE Hayden Hurst RB Joe Mixon
The Bengals successfully turned a strength into a flamethrower, drafting Ja’Marr Chase in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Chase instantly established himself as a true No. 1 and as one of the most dangerous receivers in the league.
Tee Higgins would be the best receiver on the roster for several teams. In this offense, he punishes single coverage or matchups against the opponent’s second-best corner when teams devote their resources to stopping Chase. Tyler Boyd is a big-play threat inside and his production speaks for itself — he was tied for fourth in receptions of 20 yards or more in the slot last season.
They lost CJ Uzomah in free agency but signed Hayden Hurst. Hurst was a 2018 first-round pick who will do the dirty work and has enough athleticism to be more productive than Uzomah was in this offense.
This offense took off last season when head coach Zach Taylor removed Joe Burrow’s handcuffs and let him throw at a high rate. The Bengals should pick up where they left off and be a top-three offense in 2022.
2. Miami Dolphins
WR1 Tyreek Hill WR2 Jaylen Waddle WR3 Cedrick Wilson TE Mike Gesicki RB Raheem Mostert
This is one of the fastest collections of skill players that I’ve ever seen assembled. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are legit 4.2 guys. Waddle’s most dangerous skill is his ability to win deep, but he showed how well-rounded his game is catching passes underneath in the Dolphins’ heavy run-pass-option offense last season. He’s well on his way to becoming an elite receiver. Running back Raheem Mostert ran a 4.32 and is a home run threat whenever he touches the ball. Tight end Mike Gesicki ran a 4.52, which puts him in the 92nd percentile of his position group. Third receiver Cedrick Wilson is an ascending player — his timed speed isn’t on par with his teammates, but he can separate on verticals and crossers.
Fullback Alec Ingold is one of the most physical lead blockers in the league and is an underrated receiver out of the backfield. His presence should help with the lack of a good perimeter blocker, which is essential to making Mike McDaniel’s outside zone game work. McDaniel could run a lot of 18/19 Zorro with the fullback double-teaming the edge player with the tight end.
This offense needs a little balance, but it is built to pass the ball. McDaniel made his name as a run-game coordinator with the 49ers. Can he coordinate a pass-first attack?
3. Las Vegas Raiders
X Davante Adams Z/S Hunter Renfrow TE1 Darren Waller TE2 Foster Moreau RB Josh Jacobs
The Raiders traded for the best receiver in football in Davante Adams. They hope Adams and quarterback Derek Carr can rekindle the chemistry they established at Fresno State years ago.
Since Adams emerged as a No. 1 in Green Bay, he hasn’t played with great complementary targets. In Las Vegas, he’ll play next to Darren Waller, who is an elite tight end, and Hunter Renfrow, one of the best slot receivers in the league. Running back Josh Jacobs had battled with injuries and had trouble finding space behind one of the worst offensive lines in football last season, but he’s shown he can at least be a very good starter when things are right.
Josh McDaniels’ offense is full of option routes and route conversions that require receivers read coverages, understand leverage and find open space. Adams, Waller and Renfrow are among the best at their positions at doing those things. Once they get familiar with McDaniels’ complicated system, this is going to be an electric offense to watch.
The Raiders’ best personnel grouping could be their 12 personnel with second tight end Foster Moreau. In his first season back after tearing his ACL, he didn’t quite look like himself but still had 379 receiving yards. McDaniels has had success implementing two tight end sets in the past with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. I have a feeling we’ll see a lot of 12 personnel next season.
4. San Francisco 49ers
X Brandon Aiyuk Z Deebo Samuel TE George Kittle FB Kyle Juszczyk RB Elijah Mitchell
If George Kittle isn’t the best tight end in football, he’s the most complete tight end. He blocks better than most tackles on the edge, has the speed to separate and is a monster after the catch. The 49ers also have the best YAC wide receiver in the league with Deebo Samuel, who reported to minicamp after a dispute with the team over his contract or possibly over his usage as a running back. Even if we don’t see him as a “wide-back” again, he was one of the most productive receivers in the league, racking up 1,405 receiving yards last season.
Brandon Aiyuk made major strides last season after climbing out of the coaching staff’s doghouse and finished with 826 yards and five touchdowns — not bad for a third option. Rookie receiver Jauan Jennings also finished the season strong with a six-catch, 94-yard, two-touchdown game against the Rams in Week 17 and looks to have the potential to be a strong fourth option. It’s usually hard for a rookie receiver to earn Kyle Shanahan’s trust, but he was calling choice route plays for Jennings in clutch situations.
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has proved to be one of the most unique players in the NFL. Though he doesn’t destroy defenders at the point of attack, he makes nearly every block he’s asked to make and has the speed and catching ability to win downfield as a receiver.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
X A.J. Brown Z DeVonta Smith S Quez Watkins TE Dallas Goedert RB Miles Sanders
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith couldn’t be more different in stature and play style. Brown is a hulking receiver who makes his money outmuscling defensive backs in the middle of the field. Smith, appropriately named “the slim reaper,” wins with crafty route running. Together they’ll form one of the better one-two punches in the league. Smith could make the leap toward being a star player, but it’s too early to say he’s there yet. Tight end Dallas Goedert is a borderline elite tight end. He’s always been a plus blocker but took his receiving game to another level last season, leading tight ends in yards per route run (2.33), according to Pro Football Focus. Running back Miles Sanders has struggled with health but can be a very good all-around back when he’s on the field.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
X Mike Evans Z/S Chris Godwin Z/S Russell Gage TE Cameron Brate RB Leonard Fournette
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a proven duo, but Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15 and his status for the beginning of the season is up in the air. Even when he does return, how effective will he be this year? Free-agent signing Russell Gage’s production should go up with Tom Brady throwing to him, but he isn’t quite in the class of Evans and Godwin. Gronkowski hasn’t made a decision about returning. His would-be replacement, Cameron Brate, is a good player but he’s a downgrade. Leonard Fournette had his best season as a pro running behind one of the best offensive lines in football and became a much more reliable receiver out of the backfield. Will he be able to repeat his success? The Buccanneers have a lot of talent but also have a ton of questions.
7. Los Angeles Rams
X Allen Robinson Z Van Jefferson S Cooper Kupp TE Tyler Higbee RB Cam Akers
Cooper Kupp led the league in nearly every major receiving category last season. He’s an absolute monster running option routes and Matthew Stafford unlocked his ability to get vertical last season. Allen Robinson had a down year last season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bounce-back year in a new environment. Tight end Tyler Higbee is an underrated player and can punish defenses for forgetting about him. Running back Cam Akers should be healthy and provide a spark in the running game.
8. Seattle Seahawks
X DK Metcalf Z Tyler Lockett S Freddie Swain TE Noah Fant RB Rashaad Penny
DK Metcalf had a down year after breaking out in his second season in the league but has potential to be elite. Tyler Lockett is one of the better No. 2 receivers and is as dependable as they come. They got 2019 first-round pick Noah Fant in the Russell Wilson trade. Fant hasn’t lived up to his draft status but has the athleticism to make plays in the middle of the field when defenses have to keep their safeties on top of Metcalf and Lockett. Running back Kenneth Walker, drafted in the second round, should be productive.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
X Mike Williams Z Joshua Palmer S Keenan Allen TE Gerald Everett RB Austin Ekeler
Keenan Allen is a third-down machine from the slot and Mike Williams broke out last season, hauling in nine touchdown passes. Austin Ekeler is an explosive and reliable threat catching passes out of the backfield. The Chargers have other nice pieces such as Jalen Guyton, Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett, but they really lack a receiver who can take the top off the defense consistently and take advantage of Justin Herbert’s big arm.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
X Chase Claypool Z Diontae Johnson S George Pickens (rookie) TE Pat Freiermuth RB Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson is a crafty route runner with explosion, but his hands have been unreliable. Chase Claypool has had flashes of brilliance and has top-tier height and speed, but he’s been inconsistent and can make head-scratching decisions. Second-round pick George Pickens has No. 1 receiver potential but fell in the draft because of injury concerns. Outside of the receivers, the Steelers have a couple of reliable pieces. Tight end Pat Freiermuth proved to be a red zone threat as a rookie, catching seven touchdown passes. Running back Najee Harris had 1,200 yards rushing and 467 yards receiving in his first season. This group could end up being ranked a lot higher if the Steelers put it together, but there’s a huge boom-or-bust factor associated with them.
THE NFL HAS YOUR DATA – AND THEY WILL LET YOU HEAR FROM THEM
Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic:
The NFL and its teams sent more than 4 billion messages to fans in the past year via outlets like email and text, from marketing appeals, invitations to draft day parties and logistical game-day tips. Fans with bloated inboxes will hardly be surprised by this figure — anyone who has handed over an email or phone number to an NFL team or the league can count on a deluge of incoming correspondence.
“Right now, as with most organizations, the amount of communications is pretty overwhelming,” said Paul Ballew, the NFL’s chief data and analytics officer, whose job is to fix the league’s digital outreach overload.
Recognizing that its disjointed digital marketing was turning off some fans, owners last month voted to consolidate their data by compelling teams to essentially hand over all their contacts to the NFL, which will mine it. The idea is that the team @joeculotta roots for should get his information about him attending the away game, not the Jaguars.
There are about 20 million fans in the databases across the teams and league, Ballew said, but he expects that figure to more than double in the next 18 to 24 months and perhaps exceed 50 million.
The move to centralize all these names and information is not without its problems. There is the general “Big Brother” issue of the teams wanting to gather as much information as possible about their fans. Teams might want to micro-target so that someone who routinely buys a soda gets sent a coupon for a free one, but it can be unnerving that your sports team knows so much about you.
The league received two legal opinions from outside law firms that the transfer abided by data privacy rules and regulations, Ballew said, declining to name the firms.
“Privacy is something we take very seriously. We’re investing a lot of time in privacy and consent management right now at the league level,” he said.
Some teams were hesitant too, unsure about sharing their hard-earned databases with the league to exploit and then milk out to the rest of the clubs.
“Any time you talk about ownership and control of assets — in this case, data — that’s going to create some pretty strong opinions on all sides,” said Chiefs president Mark Donovan, who presented to owners in support of the sharing. “Think about it from the perspective of: ‘We work really hard to gather this data; we don’t want someone or some entity taking that data from us and not allowing us to use it.’”
“A few of the teams disagreed with me,” Donovan said, chuckling. “Some are going to be really focused on: ‘It’s my data; I don’t want anyone else to have it.’”
But Donovan makes a few arguments. First, the league has its own database, aggregated from events like the Super Bowl and NFL Draft, information from Electronic Arts’ Madden games, retail sales from Fanatics and apps. That is useful information for teams, the Chiefs president said.
Donovan used the example of Packers fans who attend an away game at Arrowhead Stadium. Because fans use a mobile ticket, the Chiefs know they are there. But the many messages for Chiefs events they will receive are useless.
Not only can the league direct these contacts to the Packers (presuming it’s clear from an address or other data point capture), but the league also might find, Donovan explained, that a fan bought a Patrick Mahomes jersey on Fanatics for their kid who loves the quarterback.
“That’s really valuable to us,” he said.
As the first team to go with all-mobile ticketing in 2018, the Chiefs have long been at the forefront of capturing customer data. The Giants only went all-mobile last year, when the league required it, so they are under an avalanche of customer data. As a result, the Giants have embraced the new paradigm like the Chiefs, recognizing they needed help parsing all the information they gather.
“There are so many touch points that fans have with the NFL now. You know, messaging from the league, messaging from multiple clubs, fans that are in disparate geographies and may be engaging with one club on merchandise and a different club on tickets and whatnot,” said Russell Scibetti, Giants vice president of strategy and business intelligence.
Though the NFL is taking over the data, teams will continue to be responsible for communicating with fans, which is different from the centralized approach taken by Major League Baseball. All outgoing fan messages in MLB are routed through the league, Ballew said.
“It’s a very hierarchical structure. We have no desire to do that at all,” he said.
So, what does success look like? Is it reducing those 4 billion messages? Ballew said he does not have a numerical goal in mind. But one metric that clearly shows the NFL and its teams’ approach to digital messaging is not working well is the high churn rate, which measures the number of fans who opt out of the correspondence.
“Their actions tell us that the communication is not relevant or the communication is too frequent or not timely, or those sorts of things,” he said. “You vote with your click, with your mouse.”
Ballew paints the NFL’s data move within the larger trend of companies offering personalization and engagement — no different from websites that know your preferences, algorithms that recommend which movies you might like on streaming services, and ads that pop up on your screen from companies you have engaged with previously. The goal for the NFL and its teams is to have that type of relationship with each of their fans.
“At the core of this is our ability to see, know and effectively engage in a meaningful way with our fans — (that’s) what this is all about,” Ballew said. “It also sets us up for the future in a world that is maybe more and more and more direct-to-consumer.”
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