The Daily Briefing Thursday, June 22, 2023
THE DAILY BRIEFING
NFC NORTH |
MINNESOTA Sam Robinson of ProFootballRumors.com thinks the Vikings are in no hurry to get an extension done for WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON:
Last year’s wide receiver market boom set up Justin Jefferson for a monster extension, and the superstar Vikings pass catcher continued his historic ascent with a push for the first 2,000-yard receiving season. While Jefferson fell short (an NFL-most 1,809 yards), he did nothing to remove himself from the record-setting extension track.
Jefferson and the Vikings have begun discussions, but it does not sound like the team is intent on hammering out a deal before the season. Both Kevin O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have indicated a desire to have Jefferson locked down long term, though the former did not want to place a timeline on these talks. The contract is all but certain to set the market at the receiver position. But the Vikings picking up Jefferson’s fifth-year option limits the urgency on the team’s part, since that transaction pushed the All-Pro’s contract through 2024.
Teams do not make a habit of extending non-quarterbacks with two years of control remaining, and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com noted during a recent SportsCenter appearance the Vikings may not be committed to extending their top player just yet. The team is not in a rush here, per Fowler (h/t SI.com’s Joe Nelson), due to both the money involved and the rookie-contract component. Although Minnesota believes Jefferson is a cornerstone player and the league’s best wideout, the NFL’s modern history with receiver extensions may complicate matters.
Since 2014, the first year players given fifth-year options under the 2011 CBA were eligible for extensions, no team has authorized an extension for a first-round receiver before his option year. Star first-round talents like Julio Jones, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans each signed extensions during the offseason of their respective option years. Amari Cooper and Mike Williams played out their option seasons and re-signed during the ensuing offseason. A fairly extensive history exists of teams tabling receiver extensions, but Jefferson’s camp may try to force the issue.
Off to a better statistical start than any of the above-referenced receiver standouts chosen in Round 1 (or any wideout in NFL history), Jefferson skipped Vikings offseason workouts before reporting to minicamp. Jefferson plans to show for training camp, as the 2020 CBA placed stiff penalties on holdouts, but a hold-in measure should not be ruled out. Jefferson’s 4,825 receiving yards are the most through three seasons in NFL history, outpacing the previous three-year pace setter here (Randy Moss) by nearly 700. Jefferson can ramp up the pressure on a Vikings team that needs him by holding in, but if the Vikings do not cave, he will be tied to a $2.39MM salary.
Vikings negotiations with the 24-year-old phenom figure to start north of Tyreek Hill‘s $30MM-per-year deal, and while it took a backloaded deal for the Dolphins wideout t0 land that lofty per-year average, the NFC North pass catcher should be able to secure a $30MM-plus AAV without heavy backloading. The Vikings’ preference to not have injury guarantees vest a year out may be an issue for Jefferson’s camp, though the team made an exception for Cousins. That issue aside, we have not heard any major hiccups in these negotiations. If Jefferson is intent on breaking precedent and landing a monster deal ahead of his fourth season, however, some turbulence could emerge.
The 2020 CBA introduced fully guaranteed fifth-year options, and Jefferson is tied to a $19.74MM 2024 salary as a result. But the option’s existence still restricts first-round picks, while later-round selections are frequently paid before Year 4. Last year featured the receiver standouts from the 2019 second and third rounds — A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf and Diontae Johnson — secure pre-Year 4 extensions. It will be interesting to see if Jefferson is forced to wait until his fifth offseason for his payout.
If that’s the tactic, it is only likely to cost the Vikings money warns Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:
The Vikings have one of the best receivers in the league. He’s due for a new contract. The Vikings could be content to take advantage of the rules that allow them to wait to extend Justin Jefferson.
If they do that, they could end up regretting it, for multiple reasons.
First, a little background. The 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement did two important things to make it harder for great incoming players to get paid. First, operating under the notion that highly-drafted players who become busts suck millions of dollars out of the system, the league grossly restricted the compensation paid to all highly-drafted picks — including those who turn out to be great players. Second, the 2011 CBA extended from two seasons to three the opening of the window for a second contract.
So, for the incoming players who end up being great, they don’t get the money they deserved on the way in, and they have to wait at least one more year to get what they’ve earned.
For the first-round picks who end up being great players, they should not have to wait another day for their financial rewards. For the protection against injury. For the fair compensation for the things they’ll do in the fourth and fifth year of their careers.
Plenty of teams drag their feet, however. Because they can. If the player doesn’t take a stand, the player doesn’t get his money. And Jefferson has made it clear he won’t be taking a stand.
There’s plenty of noise out there that the Vikings will wait to extend Jefferson. They could regret it, for a couple of reasons.
For starters, the price is only going to keep going up and up. Every team that has ever waited to sign a great player has ended up spending more to later sign him. Unless, of course, the player suffers a serious injury or loses his fastball. Does anyone think Justin Jefferson is suddenly going to morph into Troy Williamson?
Then there’s the possibility that the foot-dragging will upset the good-natured Jefferson, making him decide that he wants out. That he wants to play elsewhere — like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown in 2022. Once that bridge is crossed, it’s hard to go back.
To the Vikings, tread lightly. While the squeaky wheel gets the grease, taking a smoothly-spinning wheel for granted could cause it to suddenly fly off the axle.
They have a rare talent in Jefferson. They should be treating him that way. There’s no reason not to. And if/when they wake up one day with another Randy Moss or Percy Harvin or Stefon Diggs who end up being sent elsewhere for one or more draft picks, the Vikings will have only themselves to blame.
And, if that’s what happens, Vikings fans will just shrug and says, “It’s just another day in Purple Purgatory.”
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NFC EAST |
DALLAS More signs that RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT could find his way back to the Cowboys. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott hasn’t been shy about expressing his hope that running back Ezekiel Elliott will return to the team after being released earlier this year and he hasn’t let the change in Elliott’s job status stop them from working out together.
A number of players have taken advantage of the 55-yard turf field at Prescott’s house in Texas and Prescott said at an event on Wednesday that Elliott had been part of a workout earlier in the day. Prescott noted that his former teammate was in good form during their session.
“That’s my best friend,” Prescott said, via Lia Assimakopoulos of the Dallas Morning News. “We’ll continue to work, continue to push each other. He looks great. I’m excited for whatever opportunity he has coming up, and I’m always his biggest fan.”
There has been no chatter about possible landing spots for Elliott recently, so it remains unclear where and if Elliott will be getting an opportunity to show his skills on a field other than Prescott’s during training camp this summer.
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NFC WEST |
SAN FRANCISCO QB TREY LANCE is probably the number 3 QB option with the 49ers now. David Bonilla of 49ers Web Zone:
On Wednesday, NFL insider Adam Schefter appeared on the Pat McAfee Show. He was asked about the San Francisco 49ers quarterback situation. Specifically, he was asked about the status of the team’s third-year quarterback, Trey Lance, and if fans can expect the team to try to trade the former No. 3 overall pick before the start of the 2023 season.
San Francisco traded away a haul of draft capital in 2021 to move up in the draft to select Lance. The young quarterback has started only four NFL games since then. He entered the 2022 season as the 49ers’ starting quarterback but suffered a season-ending ankle injury during Week 2.
“There really was never a lot of interest in Trey Lance,” Schefter said after being asked about other teams potentially pursuing the quarterback. “For what they gave up and what they get back, which is not very much at all, it doesn’t make sense to trade him. There was no trade market, and Kyle Shanahan has said that they didn’t have any trade talks with teams. He’s not going anywhere right now. He’s there.
“Now, I will say this: Sam Darnold signed with the 49ers on the first day of free agency. And if there’s a player signing with the team on the first day, that tells you that the team really liked that guy. And they really did like Sam Darnold. He was looking at a couple of different options. He chose the 49ers.
“But let’s also be very clear that Brock Purdy, if he’s healthy, he’s the guy on opening day. He’s the starting quarterback. He’s the number one. If he’s not, if for some reason he can’t go, we’ll see how Darnold and Trey Lance do in camp this summer. My guess would be Darnold has a chance to really shine and excel. But there’s a lot of preseason football left for those two guys to distinguish themselves.”
Purdy, last year’s last overall pick in the draft, took over as the starting quarterback after Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo suffered injuries. The then-rookie helped guide the 49ers all the way to the NFC Championship Game before suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow.
San Francisco doesn’t expect Purdy to begin practicing until late August at the earliest. However, the team remains hopeful that he will be available for the start of the regular season.
“Brock Purdy is the one, if healthy,” Schefter added. “And I think going into camp, Sam Darnold, I think, has the edge going into camp. But, by the way, Trey Lance could play great. He worked over the summer with [Chiefs QB Patrick] Mahomes, and I heard he’s made tremendous improvement. I’m anxious to see how much he’s improved and whether he can make that jump. Let’s see it.”
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AFC NORTH |
PITTSBURGH LB CLARK HAGGANS is dead before his time. Jack Baer of YahooSports.com:
Clark Haggans, a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Super Bowl XL championship team, has died. He was 46 years old. The Steelers confirmed his death to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, but no cause of death has been given.
Selected in the fifth round out of Colorado State in the 2000 NFL Draft, Haggans joined the Steelers a year after his college teammate, future All-Pro linebacker Joey Porter. Haggans became a staple of the team’s vaunted defense for much of the next decade, taking over as a starter in 2004.
Over the course of eight seasons, Haggans accrued 332 combined tackles, 32.5 sacks, 31 tackles for loss, 17 passes defended, 12 forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. He never made a Pro Bowl, but he was a reason the Steelers never ranked outside the top 10 in total defense during his tenure in Pittsburgh.
Originally from Torrance, California, Haggans was living in Ft. Collins, Colorado where he went to Colorado State (the announcement of his death came from the school).
The Larimer County Coroner’s Office said it responded to a private residence in Colorado to investigate the death of a 46-year-old male, who it later identified as Haggans.
The cause of death if still being investigated, but “no foul play is evident,” the coroner’s office said in a statement.
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AFC EAST |
BUFFALO Eric Washington has been promoted to assistant head coach. Alec White of NFL.com:
The Buffalo Bills are promoting defensive line coach/senior defensive assistant Eric Washington to assistant head coach/defensive line coach, the team announced Wednesday.
Washington has been the Bills’ defensive line coach since 2020; he has helped the defense finish 1st in points per game allowed in 2021 (17.0) and 4th in 2022 (19.1).
Ahead of the 2022-23 season, Washington was promoted to senior defensive assistant.
In addition to being the assistant head coach in the 2023-24 season, Washington will continue his role as Buffalo’s defensive line coach.
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MIAMI Whatever happened with WR TYREEK HILL at the Miami marina will not result in any criminal charges. At least that was what Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com had on Wednesday.
The Miami-Dade Police Department has completed its investigation into Tyreek Hill‘s disagreement with employees of a charter company based at Haulover Marina on Sunday. Andy Slater of 640 Fox Sports reports that no criminal charges will be filed, and if the victim wants to pursue charges, police told him he will have to go to the State Attorney General’s Office.
The incident began when Hill’s party boarded a boat without permission, according to Slater.
Employees of the charter company told police that Hill said “I can buy you and the boat” and “I’m No. 10 with the Miami Dolphins,” Slater reports.
The receiver reportedly hit one of the employees in the back of the head during the incident, but the alleged victim told police he did not want to press charges.
Hill is headed into his second season with the Dolphins after a trade from Kansas City in 2022.
However, on Thursday morning, Mike Florio amended with an implication NFL Justice could still loom:
The reporting regarding the latest Tyreek Hill incident has been all over the place.
The alleged victim reportedly doesn’t want to press charges. The police report, however, says he does.
The investigation into Hill’s role in the situation reportedly has concluded without charges. The police, however, say the investigation continues.
Here’s the first line from the NFL.com item on the matter: “Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill remains under investigation for an allegation of assault and battery, the Miami-Dade (Florida) Police Department confirmed to NFL Media on Wednesday evening.”
The fact that NFL Media sought the clarification and then trumpeted it to the world on the media outlet owned and operated by the league should be regarded as an ominous development by Hill. The NFL has the power to investigate and to discipline Hill for any violation of the Personal Conduct Policy, and to enhance any punishment based on his guilty plea from 2015 for choking and punching his pregnant girlfriend.
The league officially has had no comment on the latest Hill incident. The article on the league’s website says plenty.
This thing seems to be far from over. And Hill, even if he doesn’t end up being charged, could end up being punished by the NFL.
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NEW YORK JETS The Jets have lost S CHUCK CLARK for the season. They have signed another alliterative safety, ADRIAN AMOS, to replace him. ESPN.com:
Further testing confirmed that New York Jets safety Chuck Clark suffered a season-ending torn ACL during practice earlier this month, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Thursday.
The Jets signed veteran safety Adrian Amos last week in response to Clark’s injury.
Clark, 28, was acquired in a March trade with the Baltimore Ravens. The Jets sent a 2024 seventh-round pick to Baltimore for the six-year veteran, one of the most durable players in the NFL. Clark has played in 96 games out of 97 and ended last season with a streak of more than 1,200 consecutive defensive snaps, dating to 2021.
The Jets had high hopes for Clark, who impressed the coaches with his steady demeanor and cerebral approach. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said recently the on-field relationship between Clark and Jordan Whitehead, the Jets’ other starting safety, was “exceptional.”
Once Clark got hurt, the Jets pivoted quickly to Amos, a free agent. He signed a one-year deal that could be worth up to $4 million, a source told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler. Amos played mostly free safety with the Packers, so he should complement Whitehead, a natural strong safety.
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THIS AND THAT
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TEAMS WITH URGENCY Dan Hanzus of NFL.com singles out 10 teams that he believes should feel an unusually strong level of urgency in 2023, starting with the Bills:
Late June in the NFL is a time for the collective football community to bathe in a warm sea of tranquility.
The sun is shining. The vibes are good. The daiquiris are going down easy. The music is chill — that one Cure cover by 311 is getting too much play, but no one has bothered to complain. This collective peace is vitally important. The NFL season is a relentless storm that will test the mettle of all 32 squads and eventually take all out to sea save for one. This is the calm before that storm.
The big-picture reality of the NFL is harsh. Naive optimism of the spring and early summer creates a self-image that can be cruelly distorted by the fall — a circus funhouse mirror from hell. The season will spawn pressure, expectations and urgency. Which brings us to today’s exercise …
Which teams face the most urgency in the 2023 NFL campaign? That’s what I am here to explore. Using the trusty 0.0-to-10.0 scale, I’m focusing on 10 franchises that will have the greatest burden of expectation come September. Let’s start from the top, with the first of four teams from the same division.
Urgency 10.0 Buffalo Bills 2022 record: 13-3 The Bills have been knocking on the door for a while now. Four straight trips to the playoffs, each run ending short of the Super Bowl. The “13 Seconds” loss to the Chiefs in the 2021 Divisional Round was pure pain for a franchise that’s no stranger to heartbreak, but last postseason’s home thumping at the hands of the Bengals was somehow more dispiriting. Is Buffalo’s once wide-open Super Bowl window suddenly closing? Playing in a widely improved AFC East, there’s a huge amount of urgency facing the entire Buffalo operation entering 2023. Look no further than the recent drama around star receiver Stefon Diggs as an example of potential cracks in the structure. Pressure can do that to even the most solid of foundations.
Urgency 9.8 New York Jets 2022 record: 7-10 The Jets might not be in true Super Bowl-or-bust mode like their division rivals in Western New York, but the blockbuster acquisition of Aaron Rodgers has made this one of the most important seasons in franchise history. It’s difficult to overstate how vital it is for Rodgers to stay on the field, play at a high level and end New York’s league-worst — North American professional sports worst — playoff drought after 12 long years. If he fails, it could mean the end of Robert Saleh’s run as head coach — and potentially Joe Douglas’ run as general manager, too. Rodgers has said and done all the right things since the league-shaking April 24 trade — but none of that will matter if he can’t lift this star-crossed franchise out of irrelevance and into championship contention. It might be the greatest challenge yet for the four-time MVP.
Urgency 9.6 Philadelphia Eagles 2022 record: 14-3 The Eagles are absolutely loaded. If not for a controversial defensive holding call late in Super Bowl LVII, they might be defending champions. They bring back nearly their entire core from last year’s dominant group, and Jalen Hurts will enter his fourth season as a top MVP candidate entering his prime. Philadelphia seems set up well for years to come, which should keep the team away from an exercise like this — and yet, it behooves these Eagles to seize the moment in 2023. If we’re being kind, we’ll call the NFC unsettled. If we’re being honest, it’s a watered-down landscape loaded with pretenders. The 49ers appear to be the only other conference superpower, and there’s a scenario in which that team starts Sam Darnold in Week 1. The Eagles should contend in the conference for years to come, but the runway might never be as clear as it is right now.
Urgency 9.4 Cincinnati Bengals 2022 record: 12-4 We all love us some Joe Burrow. That dude is the real deal. Talent, charisma, leadership, a sense of the moment, swag for days — he’s everything you want from a franchise quarterback. So, while it’s easy to nod your head in appreciation when Burrow tells reporters the Bengals’ Super Bowl window is “my whole career,” it’s also smart to temper that gusto with some reality. Dan Marino probably thought the same way Burrow does, and he never returned to the Super Bowl after his second season. As Gregg Rosenthal pointed out in his Projected Starters series, the Bengals will return their entire offensive core for a third straight year. With Burrow and his trio of standout wide receivers — Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd — closing in on free agency, the clock is ticking closer to midnight. Cincinnati does a nice job drafting with an eye on the future these days, but the time to win with this talented, battled-tested core is right now.
Urgency 9.0 Cleveland Browns 2022 record: 7-10 I could go on for 3,000 words about why the Cleveland Browns shouldn’t have gotten into business with the scandal-plagued Deshaun Watson, but what else needs to be said at this point? Watson is the face of the franchise now, and the Browns circled the 2023 season from the moment they pulled the trigger on the blockbuster trade with the Texans two Marches ago, knowing the quarterback would likely face a significant suspension in 2022. Watson did indeed serve an 11-game ban last year, then performed poorly in his first six games for the Browns upon return. But he remains a talented, proven player who’s just now heading into his age-28 season. Cleveland general manager Andrew Berry has done a nice job building up talent around the QB, and Watson will undoubtedly be helped by a full offseason program and training camp without storm clouds of legal issues and league discipline hanging over his head. I expect Watson to play at a high level and make the Browns a contender in the AFC this season. But if — after all this — Watson flops or is merely a league-average QB? Heads might roll in Berea.
Urgency 8.7 Miami Dolphins 2022 record: 9-8 On paper, the Dolphins have one of the most talented rosters in the entire league. The offense has speed that keeps opposing coordinators up at night, and the defense — now led by eternal stud DC Vic Fangio — approaches the Eagles in terms of depth and potential. Of course, all of this commendable work done by the Miami brain trust will be wasted if Tua Tagovailoa is unable to stay on the field. The team has a new backup quarterback in former Jets folk hero Mike White, but staying the course with the concussion-prone Tua when other options were available on the trade and free-agent market represents one of the great dice rolls in the NFL this offseason. The Dolphins make sense as a Super Bowl team … but there’s also logic to picking them to finish last in the AFC East.
Urgency 8.5 San Francisco 49ers 2022 record: 13-4 It feels like San Francisco should have a Lombardi Trophy or two to show for the past dozen years, doesn’t it? The 49ers had those great teams under Jim Harbaugh, and now they’re in the midst of a fine run with Kyle Shanahan at the controls. All in all, six playoff appearances in 12 years with two painful near misses in the Super Bowl. Is this the year the 21st-century Niners finally get over the hump? I’d have them even higher in this exercise if not for the injury-related uncertainty at the quarterback position. When Brock Purdy makes his return from elbow surgery (whether that be Week 1 or further down the line), he’ll inherit an offense with more talent at skill positions than any team in football. The roster is well built on both sides of the ball, Shanahan remains one of the game’s most gifted play-callers, and — as stated above in the Eagles breakdown — the conference appears largely undercooked. When you use your second draft pick on a kicker, you’ve basically acknowledged your team is in Super Bowl-or-bust mode. Now’s the time.
Urgency 8.3 Dallas Cowboys 2022 record: 12-5 Jerry Jones turned 80 years old last October. It’s been decades since his team won something other than the NFC East. The longtime owner remains deeply involved with the day-to-day operation of his beloved Cowboys, a team that hasn’t reached the NFC Championship Game since Wonderwall was on the charts. Jones is right to look at his team and see a legit contender that can put up a fight against the Eagles and perhaps come out of the NFC in late January. Mike McCarthy has been on the sideline for back-to-back 12-win seasons in Dallas, but the pressure is on for a deep playoff run. A disappointing campaign in Big D could lead to big changes.
Urgency 8.0 New England Patriots 2022 record: 8-9 Nobody said life after Tom Brady would be easy, but who said it would be this hard? The 2022 season was a disaster by the high standards of the Patriot Way — nine losses (including an all-timer) and well-publicized offensive dysfunction that led to friction with a young quarterback and public admonishment of the coaching staff by Robert Kraft. The owner came awfully close to issuing a playoffs-or-bust ultimatum to Bill Belichick in comments this offseason, creating an almost surreal vibe around the most successful NFL organization of this century. Is Mac Jones playing for his starting job this season? (Almost certainly.) Could Belichick be fired if New England doesn’t markedly improve? (It’s not crazy to think he could!) For a team being widely picked to finish last in its division, the urgency remains compellingly high.
Urgency 7.5 Chicago Bears 2022 record: 3-14 Let’s start here: I thought Chicago played this offseason in a smart and sensible manner. The Bears opted to go all in on third-year quarterback Justin Fields, trading out of the No. 1 overall pick and then using that bounty — along with the rest of their draft class and free agency — to construct a far more compelling roster than what we saw during last season’s 3-14 bloodletting. The decision to stick with Fields as The Future was presented as a no-brainer by Bears brass, but they’ll have their fingers crossed the former first-round pick will reward their faith now that he’s surrounded by better talent. The second-year tandem of head coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles could be in trouble if Fields is still seen as an untapped resource by this time next year. The Lions were the NFL’s feel-good story in 2022 — if the Bears don’t follow a similar trajectory, questions will be asked about this NFC North squad’s current leadership.
Hanzus has all four team in the AFC East on his list, none from the AFC South, the NFC South or the AFC West.
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FINAL MOVE Field Yates of ESPN.com has one last roster or contract move for each of the 32 member clubs prior to the start of 2023:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills – Add depth at linebacker It was not a surprise that Tremaine Edmunds left in free agency with a robust market available, but right now, the Bills appear to be going with a develop-from-within approach to replace him. While Matt Milano will serve as the central hub of the linebacker group, it’s a young and largely untested group beyond him. Buffalo’s roster is in an extremely healthy spot and is good enough to win the Super Bowl, but depth at a position they have not been active in addressing this offseason feels like one last to-do item.
Miami Dolphins – Extend defensive tackle Christian Wilkins The Dolphins are deservedly generating plenty of buzz this offseason, as they once again acquired an All-Pro player via trade in Jalen Ramsey. But there’s still in-house business to take care of in extending Wilkins, their 2019 first-round pick who has been the team’s most consistent front-seven player in recent seasons. While tackles can be a misleading stat at some positions, Wilkins’ 187 tackles over the past two seasons align with his high-activity skill set. He just finds a way to perpetually make plays.
New England Patriots – Sign wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins The Patriots have already hosted the five-time All Pro on a free agent visit, so we’ve established that the interest is real. The team also has a need for a top wide receiver. Coach Bill Belichick’s affinity for Hopkins is no secret, and Hopkins reached his greatest heights as a player under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien during their tenure together in Houston. With news that Hopkins and O’Brien have mended their previously frosty relationship, the match is simply too good to ignore. The Patriots have the financial flexibility to make Hopkins a legitimate offer.
New York Jets – New deals for DT tackle Quinnen Williams and QB Aaron Rodgers Both players need new contracts — but for different reasons. Williams has emerged as one of the best players in the league and is due a massive raise over the money he is due in the final year of his rookie contract. The defensive tackle market has exploded this offseason, so he should land a deal worth at least $22.5 million per year. Rodgers, meanwhile, amended his deal to facilitate the trade to New York and is due $1.165 million this year and nearly $108 million next year. He isn’t making that little this year nor that much next year; the two sides will renegotiate revised contract terms in time.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – Re-sign outside linebacker Justin Houston The Ravens need depth at the edge position and there isn’t a more obvious solution than re-signing Houston, who just keeps making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Houston’s pass-rush acumen is his most dominant trait, and while the Ravens will always be able to scheme up pressure, Houston, 34, would add some juice on obvious passing situations. He had 9.5 sacks and 32 pressures last season. The team is also hoping for an improved year for Odafe Oweh after he was just OK in 2022.
Cincinnati Bengals – Extend quarterback Joe Burrow Any time a team has a star quarterback who is due for an extension, it’s likely going to be the pick for the “must-finish” move. Burrow is no exception, as the 2020 No. 1 overall pick is in line for a potentially record-setting deal that should be right in the range of — or just above — $52 million per year, which is in line with Lamar Jackson’s recent deal. Quarterback contracts are about much more than the average annual value, but it’s common to see one elite quarterback jump just a tick above the most recent one to sign. Jackson surpassed Jalen Hurts’ $51 million per year that was agreed on just weeks before Jackson’s deal.
Cleveland Browns – Add depth at defensive tackle The Browns’ roster once again looks to be in good shape heading into training camp, but defensive tackle feels like an area to address. While the team added a star in Dalvin Tomlinson and a massive run-stuffer in Siaki Ika in the third round of the draft, one more contributor to solidify the rotation would go a long way, especially since 2022 fourth-rounder Perrion Winfrey feels like a roster-bubble player right now. There are quality options available, including Shelby Harris and Ndamukong Suh.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Extend linebacker Alex Highsmith T.J. Watt has established himself as one of the best players in the league, but let’s not overlook Highsmith’s impact in that linebacker room, too. He wreaks havoc opposite Watt. A career year in 2022 (14.5 sacks) for Highsmith was a great way to lead into his first extension-eligible offseason, and Pittsburgh has a lengthy track record of drafting, developing and extending its own. Pegging the price for Highsmith is a little tricky — this offseason has been dominated by defensive tackle extensions, not edge rusher extensions — but I would think something in the $15-16 million per year range is a reasonable target.
AFC South
Houston Texans – Extend offensive tackle Tytus Howard Houston has been busy this offseason. It checked the most important roster box by drafting quarterback C.J. Stroud at No. 2 overall, but it also made a slew of free agent moves (many of the one-year variety) to plug other gaps for new coach DeMeco Ryans. Howard is the team’s most deserving extension candidate as he enters the final year of his rookie deal and has helped to form the strength of the roster in recent seasons: the tackle duo. There are many factors that contribute to success for young quarterbacks, but having a stable offensive line is among the most critical.
Indianapolis Colts – Sign guard Dalton Risner It wasn’t long ago that the Colts’ offensive line was not just the best unit on the roster but also one of the best in the NFL. The collective play in 2022 was mediocre, and the depth has thinned out in a hurry. Will Fries projects as the top right guard, with 2020 draft pick Danny Pinter behind him. Risner is the best available guard at the moment and would likely slot into a starting gig after serving as a starter for all 62 games he played with the Broncos over the past four seasons. Whenever you draft a young quarterback, having as many capable players around him is simply good business. Risner would help Anthony Richardson immediately.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Make a Cam Robinson decision The Jaguars left tackle is facing a suspension for a violation of the league’s PED policy, a penalty that will not only include time missed but also void the remaining guaranteed money in his contract. Given the team invested a first-round pick in left tackle Anton Harrison, it seems plausible the Jaguars are prepared to move on from Robinson. Due to the salary cap implications tied to the guarantees being voided, a move prior to an official suspension won’t happen. But releasing Robinson after a suspension would create close to $16 million in cap space. If the team feels Robinson is too valuable to move on from, Jacksonville would then have some options at left tackle once he returns from suspension.
Tennessee Titans – Sign wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins I know we had the same move suggestion for the Patriots, and only one team is going to get it done. But the Titans were the first team to host Hopkins on a visit, and the veteran receiver would fill a glaring need right now. The Titans have one of the league’s thinnest wide receiver depth charts, and Hopkins would immediately assert himself as the top pass-catcher in this offense. Tennessee’s roster is in an interesting space, where it feels like it is straddling the desire to get younger while also holding onto key veterans like Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill. But a Mike Vrabel-led team will yield a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts. D-Hop would help a lot.
AFC West
Denver Broncos – Add a running back The Broncos were immediately linked to Dalvin Cook following his release from the Vikings, which was not merely a byproduct of Cook being a very accomplished player; the team is also a tad thin at running back, given the lack of clarity on when Javonte Williams will be back from a major knee injury suffered last season. Even if Williams is ready at the outset of the season (no sure thing), the Broncos will likely want to be judicious with his workload. The good news for Denver is there is no shortage of available backs to potentially add right now: Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette join Cook as top options.
Kansas City Chiefs – Extend defensive tackle Chris Jones No surprise here, as the Chiefs have talked this offseason about their openness to extend one of the NFL’s best defensive players. Jones is entering the final year of a four-year, $80 million deal and is due for a raise — likely north of $22.5 million per year, which is where other elite defensive tackles have checked in this offseason. An extension for Jones would also create cap space for the Chiefs this year, which they need.
Las Vegas Raiders – Sign cornerback Marcus Peters When you look at the Raiders’ cornerback depth chart, it suggests that they subscribe to the theory that it’s easier to cover up a thin secondary with an excellent pass rush than the inverse. I agree but also think they need more playmaking at cornerback — and Peters is an ideal candidate. He has already visited the team, and while not the same player he was just a few years back, he’s still an opportunistic ball hawk who can bring an infectious confidence to any team. He broke up six passes last season with Baltimore after missing 2021 with a torn ACL.
Los Angeles Chargers – Extend quarterback Justin Herbert Reapply much of the aforementioned Burrow/Bengals logic to Herbert and the Chargers. Herbert’s résumé through three seasons is fantastic, and both he and the team have not hid from the fact that an extension is the goal this offseason. Again, the numbers will be the most compelling part of this extension, and you can safely assume the average annual value will begin with a five … as in $50 million-plus.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys – Sign kicker Robbie Gould This one feels about as straightforward as it gets: The Cowboys have a major need for an established presence at kicker and Gould is the best available right now. While Brett Maher (currently unsigned) had a regular season full of critical long-distance kicks, he became the only kicker in NFL playoff history to miss four extra points in one game. Gould, on top of being the eighth-most accurate field goal kicker in NFL history, has never missed a postseason kick (extra point or field goal).
New York Giants – Extend running back Saquon Barkley All of the usual caveats about the value of extending running backs near the top of the market apply, as it remains the position where teams can easily find capable players. However, Barkley was the offensive catalyst during New York’s resurgent 2022 season. Both sides have acknowledged a desire for an extension. Barkley wants and deserves to be paid among the top backs, but there has been reporting that he doesn’t necessarily need to be the highest-paid back in the NFL. That could indicate a sweet spot around the $14-15 million per year range.
Philadelphia Eagles – Sign defensive end Yannick Ngakoue I know the Eagles have a premiere pass rush and used their second first-round pick on Nolan Smith to further that, but let’s get greedy as it pertains to a top Super Bowl contender. Waves of depth are essential for a pass rush in the NFL, and Ngakoue is a sack specialist who can provide Philly what it felt Robert Quinn would bring when it acquired him last offseason. Ngakoue won’t exactly come cheap, but do you think I’m worried about the Eagles finding a way to make a move work under the salary cap? He had 9.5 sacks and 29 pressures last season with the Colts.
Washington Commanders – Pad the linebacker depth The Washington front is so good that any linebacker looking for work should have the Commanders on the radar. This team could also use depth beyond projected starters Jamin Davis and Cody Barton, the latter of whom was signed as a free agent this offseason. There are a handful of notable unsigned inside backers, including Jon Bostic (who started five games for Washington last season), Kwon Alexander, Deion Jones and Zach Cunningham.
NFC North
Chicago Bears – Acquire an edge rusher The Bears have not shied from stating the desire to beef up their edge room — they are light on established pass-rushers. The free agent market features more players who would be designated pass-rushers in the Bears’ scheme (think Yannick Ngakoue) than every-down candidates, which leads me to wonder whether the Bears would be better served to find a trade for an edge player. Pretty much any name at the position that has come up as a potential trade/cut candidate has been linked to the Bears.
Detroit Lions – Extend guard Jonah Jackson An unmistakable part of the Lions’ offensive identity is their nasty offensive line, with Jackson as a key cog in that operation. He is extension-eligible for the first time in his career this offseason and would seem a prime candidate for Detroit to reinvest in. One reality for the Lions is that they don’t have many glaring roster holes, and many of their best players are either already extended long term or not yet extension-eligible (Amon-Ra St. Brown, for example). That’s a sign of just how far this team has come and offers plenty of hope for the 2023 season.
Green Bay Packers – Sign a veteran pass-catcher The Jordan Love and youth movements are on in Green Bay in the post-Rodgers era, with the team investing five draft picks on wide receivers and tight ends in April. I’m already getting excited about this offense’s potential. I understand that very few veteran pass-catchers available right now have a chance to be a major impact player on the field, but I do think there is a spot for a player who brings leadership qualities to make his mark. As an example, while the team might want as many snaps for the youngsters who can play in the slot as possible, I do think Jarvis Landry’s presence would bring instant lessons in preparation that would pay off.
Minnesota Vikings – Extend wide receiver Justin Jefferson I thought about writing a bunch of words about this move, and then I decided to just watch Jefferson’s highlights on YouTube. He has arguably been the leagues’ most prolific receiver through every season of his career. Pay him! And probably more than any other receiver ever.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons – Add another wide receiver If you’ve been reading this piece from top to bottom, you’ve seen this suggestion pop up already in a few places. But it’s especially true in Atlanta where the team’s depth chart beyond Drake London is currently led by Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller. While the Falcons ran the ball on the highest percentage of plays in the league last year (51.1% of offensive plays) and have two possible stars in London and tight end Kyle Pitts, they simply must address the receiver spot with either someone already available or someone who could become available.
Carolina Panthers – Add depth at cornerback Star cornerback Jaycee Horn missed the closing portion of OTAs and the team’s minicamp, which served as a reminder of just how thin the cornerback room is behind him. Donte Jackson is returning from a torn Achilles suffered in November, while CJ Henderson had his fifth-year option declined this offseason after a rocky first three years in the league. As is the case with most positions right now, there aren’t a ton of obvious starting-level players available, but Carolina needs to pad the depth here.
New Orleans Saints – Extend defensive end Cameron Jordan It’s rare to make the case for extending a 34-year-old defensive end, but not much about Jordan’s longevity is ordinary. He has aged exceptionally well. He remains dependable and productive while serving as one of the heartbeats of the franchise. And while I’ll never worry about the Saints as it pertains to the salary cap, an extension for Jordan would also mitigate the cap implications for next year, as he is currently scheduled to count $23.37 million against the cap in dead money.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Come to a Devin White resolution White made headlines this offseason with a trade request, but the Buccaneers have made it clear he’s a valuable part of their defensive core. He is currently slated to play on his fifth-year option of his rookie deal, putting him on track for free agency next offseason. His play had an up-and-down nature to it in 2022, and some teams around the NFL don’t place premium value on the off-ball linebacker spot. It feels like several outcomes are plausible — an extension, White playing out this year on his current deal or a trade — but finding a resolution is helpful for all parties.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals – Sign another center It would appear the front-runner for the starting gig at center is Hjalte Froholdt, a journeyman who started six games for the Browns last season. His familiarity with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing (hired from Cleveland) helps, but this still feels like a potential upgrade spot. (Rookie Jon Gaines II could become the long-term starter in time, as well.) While the timeline for Kyler Murray’s return is uncertain, having a reliable rock in the middle of the offensive line can be a big boost for pre-snap communication and post-snap execution.
Los Angeles Rams – Sign more edge players The Rams’ defensive depth chart is nearly unrecognizable as compared to a few years ago — aside from Aaron Donald, of course — but the spot that stands out to me most is the edge group. Third-round rookie Byron Young projects to make an immediate impact, particularly as the team is bereft of experience at that spot. While the Rams’ defense doesn’t figure to be near the level it has been in recent seasons, if I were an unsigned pass-rusher looking to boost my value next offseason, I’d call L.A. Playing with Donald equates to favorable matchups on nearly every snap, and that could result in a bunch of sacks.
San Francisco 49ers – Extend defensive end Nick Bosa This one didn’t require too much contemplation, as Bosa — the best defensive player on a team full of incredible defenders — is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is unquestionably due a new deal. The complex part is figuring out the exact numbers, but it’d be no surprise if it ends up among the richest ever signed by a defensive player.
Seattle Seahawks – Extend linebacker Uchenna Nwosu Nwosu was fantastic for the Seahawks in his first season there in 2022, posting career-highs across the board, including 9.5 sacks. With a comparable season this year, Nwosu would be positioned as one of the top free agent pass-rushers next March, making an extension a logical proposition. While Seattle has built up a deep list of rushers that includes the addition of second-rounder Derick Hall this year, Nwosu is the most complete of the group and is just 26 years old. A side benefit of an extension would be a likely reduced cap charge for 2023, which is helpful for a team that could use a little wiggle room.
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2024 DRAFT ProFootballRumors.com has a handy list of 2024 draft picks that have changed hands.
Arizona, Chicago and probably Green Bay have two first round picks. Cleveland, Carolina and probably the Jets do not have firsts.
Despite giving away so much to draft both EDGE WILL ANDERSON and QB C.J. STROUD, the Texans still have a one a two and a three in next year’s draft.
Round 1 Texans hold Browns‘ pick after March 2022’s three-first-rounder haul for Deshaun Watson
Bears hold Panthers‘ pick after trading No. 1 overall selection (Bryce Young) this year
Cardinals acquired Texans‘ pick in Houston’s climb up for Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3
Packers will collect Jets‘ first if Aaron Rodgers plays 65% of the Jets‘ 2023 offensive snaps. If QB fails to hit that benchmark, Green Bay will acquire New York’s second-rounder
Round 2 Eagles collected Saints‘ second-rounder in April 2022 trade
Saints nabbed Broncos‘ second in January 2023 deal for Sean Payton‘s rights
Falcons can collect Jaguars‘ second from Calvin Ridley trade, should Jags extend WR The second pick conveyed in the Ridley trade could also become third- or fourth-rounder
Round 3 Lions obtained Vikings‘ pick in 2022 deadline deal that sent T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota
As part of Payton trade, Broncos collected Saints‘ third
As part of Anderson trade, Cardinals acquired Texans’ 2024 third
Cardinals picked up Titans‘ 2024 third in deal that allowed Tennessee to draft Will Levis at No. 33
Seahawks acquired third from Broncos in exchange for No. 83 overall pick (CB Riley Moss). It is not yet known if Seattle will add Denver or New Orleans’ 2024 third
Texans landed third from Eagles in trade for No. 105 (CB Kelee Ringo)
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