| Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com continues to flog the “collusion” ruling that did not find punishable collusion. For many, the news that the NFL was caught with its hand in the collusion cookie jar (despite the nonsensical conclusion that the teams didn’t follow the encouragement/directive to collude) was met with a shrug. And for good reason. Many assume the teams coordinate/collude routinely. Many assume it’s perfectly fine to do so. They assume that the “franchises” are part of a broader business. That the NFL is one large company with 32 branches that the league office controls. But that’s not the case. The American Needle case, decided by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2010, found that the NFL isn’t a “single entity” but 32 independent businesses. Which means that any coordination/collusion among those businesses amounts to a violation of the antitrust laws. So how can the NFL have a salary cap and a draft and limitations on player movement like the franchise tag? By participating in a “multi-employer bargaining unit,” the NFL’s teams have secured a limited antitrust exemption that allows them to make common rules regarding the 32-team player workforce. The common rules appear in a Collective Bargaining Agreement. And the CBA expressly prohibits collusion as to the things the independent businesses are authorized to do, within the confines of the CBA’s rules. Remember when the league punished the Cowboys, Commanders, Raiders, and Saints for treating the uncapped year of 2010 as uncapped? That was blatant collusion, since the CBA allowed the teams during the uncapped year to spend at will. The CBA also allows teams to give players fully-guaranteed contracts. Once the Browns exercised their right to do so with quarterback Deshaun Watson, the league office (through the Management Council) urged the teams to hold the rope in order to prevent the Watson deal from becoming the norm. And they did. (Even though the arbitrator ignored and/or explained away the evidence that they did.) The next three veteran quarterback contracts for established starters were not fully guaranteed. Which allowed the Watson contract to be regarded as a blip on the radar screen and not a game changer. It all happened because the teams complied with the instruction to limit guarantees in contracts. Think of it this way. As it relates to the CBA, the league and the union are engaged in a broader game of tug of war. As it relates to the individual player contracts, the teams aren’t supposed to band together. Specifically, owners aren’t supposed to be thinking about what the owners of the other teams want. Owners are supposed to be thinking about what’s best for their teams only — even if it creates a problem for other teams. The problem is that fans and media expect the teams to coordinate. And, frankly, the NFLPA has done a poor job over the years of effectively communicating to fans and media that coordination isn’t permitted. By launching the most recent collusion case, however, former NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith tried. The only problem is that, once the NFLPA secured a ruling that the league urged the teams to collude, current NFLPA executive director Lloyd Howell stuck the 61-page ruling in a vault and locked it. That doesn’t change the fact that the 32 independent businesses of the NFL received an instruction to collude and, in my own personal opinion, they did. Is Florio campaigning to be the head of the NFLPA? We would say that maybe teams independently surveying the disaster of Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed contract came to the very sane conclusion that it was not in their best interest to award a fully guaranteed contract. Here is a discussion of the three contracts that has Florio in a kerfuffle. Alex Raskin of the Daily Mail: The union alleged in its System Arbitration in October of 2022 ‘that the collusive agreement of the NFL precluded three other quarterbacks – Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray – from fully guaranteed contracts after the Watson contract.’ All three quarterbacks saw significantly less guaranteed money in their subsequent contracts than Watson had in March of 2022. Murray’s $230.5 million contract with the Arizona Cardinals contained only $160 million in guarantees, while just $185 million of Lamar Jackson’s $260 million deal with the Baltimore Ravens was guaranteed in March of 2023. Remarkably, Jackson saw very little interest from other teams despite being the league’s MVP just a few years earlier. ‘Only a couple of teams expressed interest to DeCosta in signing him prior to the Ravens’ decision to franchise him,’ read the report. Wilson signed a $245 million extension with Denver in 2022. That deal included $165 million in guarantees, but he was released prior to the 2024 season. Murray, with no other team yet able to bid against him, settled for “only” 69% guaranteed. Jackson, giving no indication of an interest to leave Baltimore, settled for just 71% guaranteed. Wilson, offered a generous extension with two years left on his other deal, took 67% guaranteed. There was a time when NFL contracts were not at all guaranteed – and that was wrong to the player, especially those who suffered injuries. But we all have seen fully guaranteed contracts in other sports, primarily baseball, backfire again and again. So a practice where two-thirds of big contracts are guaranteed doesn’t seem all that criminally outrageous to the DB. The three quarterbacks could have withheld their services, but they chose to sign with the idea that two-thirds now, one-third still to be earned was fair. Jackson will earn all the non-guaranteed money and more. Murray seems on track to earn it. Wilson didn’t, and we’re not sure why he was a victim. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| NEW ORLEANSRookie QB TAYLOR SHOUGH is talking a good game. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com: Rookie Tyler Shough is competing to replace Derek Carr as the starting quarterback of the Saints. The 40th overall pick is the frontrunner to start the season opener, which would make him the first Week 1 rookie starting quarterback for the team since Archie Manning in 1971. First, though, he will have to beat out Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Shough isn’t the typical rookie. He’s 26, which makes him 2 years older than Rattler and only six months younger than Haener. He graduated from high school in 2018 and once served as Justin Herbert’s backup at Oregon. That’s why Shough insists nothing will faze him this season. “I think for me and what I’ve been through — I’ve been carted off the field; I’ve been booed; I’ve been an MVP; I’ve been a starter; I’ve been a backup to Herbert — throw some shit at me. You’re not going to faze me if we start off 0-2 or I fu—ing suck,” Shough said on the St. Brown podcast, via NFL Media. “It’s going to be fine. That’s what I was excited about — the opportunity, or any opportunity — and I think going into it, I’ve got to continue to get to know the guys. “Like I said earlier, I’m still a rookie. I may be older, but I have to earn the respect of everybody and do my job.” Carr still was with the Saints when Shough was drafted but announced his retirement May 10, opening up the job. It’s an opportunity Shough didn’t expect to have the day he was drafted. He has taken the road most traveled to get here, going from Oregon to Texas Tech to Louisville to New Orleans. “I think it’s just if you look back, what are you willing to sacrifice at that position?” Shough said. “If you would have told me as a 20-year-old, you’re going to get drafted, but you are going to have to wait four or five years, and you’re going to break your bones three times and think about not playing football again, and you’re going to be depressed and have all these emotions, but if you stay at it then I would have done it, and I did. At that time, you’re wondering why is this happening and what’s going on and a lot of unknowns. That’s literally the NFL; that’s the game of football.” |
| TAMPA BAYCoach Todd Bowles and GM Jason Licht will continue to run the show in Tampa Bay. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:: Buccaneers General Manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles have some added job security. The Bucs announced today that both Licht and Bowles have signed multi-year contract extensions. “Jason and Todd’s excellent leadership and vision have been critical to our organizational success, and the winning culture they have established has us well positioned into the future,” Bucs owner Joel Glazer said in a statement. “Jason has evolved into one of the top talent evaluators and general managers in the NFL, while Todd has led us to three consecutive division titles and is one of the league’s leading defensive minds. Under their guidance, we will continue building towards another championship.” Tampa Bay hired Licht as GM in 2014, and while there were some early struggles, the Bucs won a Super Bowl with quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bruce Arians, and have stayed in contention with quarterback Baker Mayfield and Bowles. Arians originally hired Bowles as defensive coordinator and then stepped down in 2022, when Bowles was promoted to head coach. The Bucs have made the playoffs five years in a row and won their division four times in a row, both firsts in franchise history. The Bucs are the only NFC team to make the playoffs each of the last five years. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CINCINNATIThere are nearly 700,000 people of Indian heritage in London (twice the population of the entire CITY of Cincinnati). Ninety percent of the world’s Bengal tigers can be found in India. But the NFL team with the most Indian nickname will not be eligible to move to London next year if this report from Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com is correct: The Bengals are staying put at Paycor Stadium. Via Jason Williams of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the team and Hamilton County have a deal in place to keep the club playing at Paycor Stadium until at least the mid-2030s. Williams adds the county commissioners are expected to unanimously vote for it on Thursday morning. The Bengals had until June 30 to extend their current lease at the facility. Otherwise, their lease would have expired after the 2025 season. Paycor Stadium opened as Paul Brown Stadium in 2000, replacing Riverfront Stadium as the Bengals’ home field. It’s been a significant week for Ohio stadium news, as the state legislature also voted to pass a budget that will enable the Browns to build a domed stadium adjacent to the Cleveland airport using public funds. |
| CLEVELANDWith the help of the Ohio Legislature, Jimmy Haslam will join Art Modell as a Browns owner who moved the team out of Cleveland. Although he is not taking the team as far. Mike Florio: The Browns have found a way to beat Cleveland. With litigation pending over whether the Art Modell Law keeps the Browns from moving out of downtown Cleveland to suburban Brook Park, the Ohio legislature has revised the Modell law in a way that makes the legal issue moot. Via Daryl Ruiter of 92.3 The Fan, the change to the Modell Law was among nearly 600 amendments to the state budget. It allows Ohio pro sports teams who play in tax-supported facilities to move within Ohio when their leases expire. Basically, the change clarifies that the goal of the Modell Law was to keep pro sports teams from leaving the state. Which also opens the door, in theory, for Columbus to try to pilfer the Bengals or the Browns, in theory. The bill will be effective if/when Governor Mike DeWine signs it into law. Ruiter also reports that the Browns plan to close on the purchase of 176 acres in Brook Park this week. It will be the location of the new dome stadium that is scheduled to open in 2029. The state will be contributing $600 million to the project. With Cuyahoga County insisting it won’t cooperate, the Browns will have to come up with the rest of the money through other sources. |
| PITTSBURGHBucky Brooks of FoxSports.com on whether or not the Steelers can win with QB AARON RODGERS in 2025: While the marriage between Rodgers and Mike Tomlin will dominate headlines and make the Steelers “must-see TV” based on the collaboration of a pair of future gold jacket wearers, this pairing between superstar quarterback and elite head coach seems destined to fail if judged on the team’s championship standards. The Steelers have traditionally been a run-first team that heavily relied on their stellar defense to chalk up regular-season wins, but that tactic has failed to produce a playoff win since 2016. Although the formula has helped Tomlin avoid a losing season throughout his legendary career, the conservative approach has routinely led to a few regular-season “duds” that cost the team top seeding in the postseason tournament. Moreover, the throwback game plans have made the Steelers an “easy out” when the calendar pages reach December and January. Perhaps Rodgers can do what Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson could not do before him and give the Steelers a credible threat that forces opponents to build game plans designed to limit the impact of the quarterback. Though Rogers is in the twilight of his career and coming off a disappointing two-year stint with the New York Jets, he has posted impressive marks for most of his 20-year career (65.1% completion rate, 62,952 pass yards, 503:116 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 102.6 passer rating). Most importantly, he is a proven winner with a 153-87-1 career record and an extensive history of coming through in clutch situations, as evidenced by his 23 fourth-quarter comebacks and 34 game-winning drives. Considering how the Steelers routinely relied on Roethlisberger’s fourth-quarter (41 fourth-quarter comebacks and 53 game-winning drives in 18 seasons) and magic to win during the best years of the Tomlin era, it is sensible for the team to hitch their wagon to a quarterback with a winning pedigree to level up in 2025. “Read his resume,” Mike Tomlin told reporters following Pittsburgh’s first minicamp practice. “We’re excited about him being here, he’s excited about being here, but we’ll make no bold predictions. We’re just gonna roll our sleeves up and go to work and let our efforts do the talking.” Despite his previous success, Rodgers’ transition to the Steelers’ offense will require a lot of “give-and-take” on both sides. The Steelers logged the fourth-most rushing attempts in 2024, while Rodgers attempted the second-most passes last season with the Jets. The pass-heavy approach continued a trend that dates back to his days with the Green Bay Packers, where he played for a team that attempted the fourth-fewest running plays from 2008 to 2022, per ESPN Research. “You’d love to be more balanced,” Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith told reporters shortly after Rodgers signed. “You’re not obvious in how you want to attack this defense, what you think their strengths and weaknesses are. That’s the game that’s played every Sunday. … we didn’t bring Aaron in here — and signed fDK [Metcalf] for all that money — to go run the wishbone. So, you know, you try to play to the strengths of your team.” Looking at the Steelers’ revamped roster with DK Metcalf — in fact, Rodgers says Metcalf is a “big part of the reason” he joined the Steelers — and Robert Woods joining a lineup that also features a new set of running backs in Kaleb Johnson and Kenneth Gainwell, the offense features a mix of speedsters and slick playmakers who can enable Smith to feature a game plan that meshes ball control with big-play hunting. With Rodgers at the helm, the Steelers are putting the ball in the hands of an aging assassin with the arm talent, accuracy and anticipation to torch defenders with laser-like throws when he can throw from a clean pocket. Though the four-time MVP is coming off an 11-interception season — his second season with 10-plus interceptions in three years and the fourth of his career, he has the lowest interception percentage (1.4%) in NFL history and is a prudent decision maker when he trusts his supporting cast. As the Steelers cast him in a managerial role that requires him to take care of the ball and complement one of the league’s top defenses, Rodgers could lean into a conservative approach that prioritizes ball security over playmaking from the quarterback. From getting the Steelers into the best play calls based on down, distance and defensive formation to avoid high-risk throws, Rodgers could spend the 2025 season focused on being efficient (completion rate of 70% or better and a passer rating of at least 100.0) and effective directing an offense that relies on “YAC” (yards after catch) derived on various “catch-and-run” concepts at short- and intermediate range. Arthur Smith utilized a similar plan to help Ryan Tannehill win the 2019 NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors in Tennessee. Although the Titans extensively featured play-action passes from various run-heavy sets with Derrick Henry in the backfield, the clever design of the offense enabled the veteran to play the best football of his career. If the Steelers can re-establish a top-10 rushing attack behind a beefy offensive line that features a collection of youngsters with fewer than three years of starting experience (Broderick Jones was drafted in 2023, while Zach Frazier, Mason McCormick and Tony Fautanu were acquired in the 2024 draft), the team can alleviate some of the pressure on Rodgers to single-handedly carry the offense. To that point, the Steelers’ new franchise quarterback must show a willingness to play within Smith’s system. As a veteran with 241 career starts, it can be hard for an old dog to learn new tricks when it comes to executing new or different concepts. Rodgers and Smith must find common ground on which plays best suit the quarterback’s talents, while accentuating the strengths of the rest of the Steelers’ personnel. How the duo handles the “tug-of-war” over the offense’s philosophical approach could determine whether the Steelers chalk up enough wins to extend Tomlin’s non-losing streak and sneak into the playoffs as a wild card. While that is well below the Steelers’ championship standard, it is the best-case scenario for a team banking on an aging former Super Bowl champion and four-time MVP to lead them on an improbable title run. And then it is off into the sunset for Rodgers, who has one post-retirement promise. “You won’t see me,” he told McAfee. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| INDIANAPOLISFrank Schwab of YahooSports.com has the Colts, at #24, one spot higher than the Patriots in his preseason countdown. We think the Patriots will win more games. The warning signs were there for the Indianapolis Colts. Anthony Richardson had just 13 career college starts. He had accuracy issues. He wasn’t consistent. There was a lot of work that needed to be done. The Colts ignored all of that, instead focusing on Richardson’s impressive physical profile. Looking back, he probably would have been a great mid-round developmental pick. The Colts took him fourth overall. “I didn’t want to look up and watch him be a superstar somewhere else,” Colts general manager Chris Ballard said in a team documentary after the draft. The tone from Ballard about two years later was a lot different, when he declared the Colts would have an open competition at quarterback. That’s why the Colts paid Daniel Jones $14 million on a one-year deal. “It’s gotta be the right guy to create real competition,” Ballard said this offseason, via the team’s site. “But we want to create real competition. I think it’s good for the team; I think it’s good for Anthony.” The competition might never materialize, and not because Richardson has put to rest all concerns about his viability as an NFL starter. Richardson missed June minicamp with a shoulder injury. He sought a second opinion, which usually isn’t a great sign. The Colts couldn’t commit to him being ready for training camp. Jones might win the job by default. This is how the Richardson story has gone for the Colts. There have been a few highlights. There have been many more frustrations over his ineffectiveness as a passer, and setbacks due to injuries. If the Colts get to camp and Richardson is missing practice, limited when he does practice or compromised by his shoulder, it’s hard to believe head coach Shane Steichen (who is on the hot seat) would gamble his job on a quarterback who is unable to show tangible progress before the season starts. The Colts were 8-9 last season, but it seemed like they were much worse due to the Richardson issue. Richardson was benched early in the season, and got his job back only because Joe Flacco was bad too. Richardson’s completion percentage for the season was 47.7%. The only other quarterbacks since 1988 with at least 250 attempts and a completion percentage under 48% are Stan Gelbaugh, Heath Shuler, Craig Whelihan, Akili Smith and Tim Tebow. Richardson was 12.9% worse in completion percentage than any other quarterback that had 250 attempts last season. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in completion percentage at 72.9%; Richardson would have had to complete 245 passes in a row last season to match that. Despite all that, the Colts were close to a .500 team. Quarterback play, whether it’s Richardson’s progress or Jones’ ability to turn his career around, is the key issue hovering over the Colts going into this season. The Colts won eight games even with a team passer rating of 75.8, which was 31st in the NFL. There’s plenty of talent on offense, like running back Jonathan Taylor, receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and new rookie tight end Tyler Warren. The defense was good enough to keep the Colts in games. Steichen might be a good coach, just one that hasn’t been able to fix Richardson’s problems. But it’s hard to get excited for the Colts if the quarterback play is near the bottom again. Plenty is riding on Richardson or Jones playing well this season. Ballard and Steichen can’t feel comfortable, especially after the death of longtime owner Jim Irsay. Irsay was patient with Ballard and Steichen, and especially Ballard, even as many fans wanted change. Irsay believed in them, but now his daughters are in charge. It’s also hard to believe the Colts would try again with Richardson in 2026 if he doesn’t show improvement this season, and we can’t even know if he’ll get the chance to start. If the Colts have a losing season, there could be a total roster teardown, especially if there’s a new general manager and coach. The Colts drafted Richardson knowing there was risk involved. It’s just two years into the experiment, but it’s looking grim on that gamble working out. Offseason gradeThe Colts set out to get help for the secondary, find some quarterback competition and also add a playmaker at tight end. They signed cornerback Charvarius Ward (three years, $54 million) and safety Camryn Bynum (four years, $60 million), which gave the secondary a much-needed boost. Daniel Jones was signed on a one-year deal for $14 million, which was unfortunately necessary due to Anthony Richardson’s struggles. In the draft, the Colts picked tight end Tyler Warren. He was considered a top-10 prospect by many and it was a bit surprising he was available to the Colts at No. 14. The Colts also lost some key players: Offensive linemen Will Fries and Ryan Kelly and defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo signed elsewhere, and those are big losses. Grade: C Quarterback reportDaniel Jones wasn’t great with the New York Giants, but how much of that is Giants malaise? Ask Saquon Barkley how much it can help to get out of New York. Jones has had some good stretches of play, but his middling 84.3 career passer rating tells plenty of his story. He has never thrown for more than 3,205 yards in a season and since throwing for 24 touchdowns as a rookie, he has 46 passing touchdowns in his last five seasons combined. Jones has 69 career starts, so it’s not like he’s inexperienced. At age 28, he’s probably not changing much as a player. Richardson turned 23 years old in May and the Colts’ best-case scenario is him being healthy, winning the starting job in August and taking a big third-year leap. But if that doesn’t happen, Jones can at least be a reasonable starter. Just one who’s unlikely to be a long-term answer. BetMGM odds breakdownFrom Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Time may be running out on the Anthony Richardson experiment in Indianapolis, as the Colts signed free-agent QB Daniel Jones for competition. The offense lost some pieces on the offensive line (but added first-round tight end Tyler Warren in the draft), while the defense added Cam Bynum and Charvarius Ward to strengthen a good unit. The Colts (+300) are tied with the Jaguars for the second-best odds to win the AFC South at BetMGM, but their season will likely come down to whether Richardson or Jones can take the next step forward under center. The Colts are strong favorites (-210) to miss the playoffs again.” Yahoo’s fantasy takeFrom Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Tyler Warren was a catch machine his final year at Penn State, securing 101 passes for 1,233 yards. And we’ve seen rookie tight ends make a fantasy splash in each of the last two seasons. But Warren’s onboarding with the Colts might be a bumpy one, given the limitations of quarterbacks Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. There’s also a crowding issue, as Indianapolis has a number of capable pass-catchers in the wide receiver room. Warren’s tight end ADP has risen to TE13 in Yahoo rooms, too optimistic for me.” Stat to rememberThe Colts weren’t particularly great at anything last season, but they were a top-10 rushing team. Despite a mostly broken passing game, the Colts were eighth in the NFL in rushing yards and eighth in yards per carry. Plenty of that can be credited to Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 1,431 yards in a true workhorse role. He had 303 carries while no other Colts running back had more than 56. Taylor averaged 4.7 yards per carry with a massive workload. Taylor is entering his sixth season and last season was his second time amassing more than 300 carries, so wear and tear starts to become a concern. There could be more help for Taylor with the signing of Khalil Herbert and the drafting of DJ Giddens at the position. But Taylor will get plenty of work. If the Colts are going to be successful this season, better quarterback play is the most important factor. But right after that might be Taylor again handling a huge number of carries and maintaining his level of effectiveness. Burning question Can Lou Anarumo turn around the defense?Not long ago, when the Cincinnati Bengals were seemingly the only team that could figure out Patrick Mahomes and making a Super Bowl, Anarumo was treated as a defensive genius. A few years later, the Bengals fired him. The Colts obviously blame the Bengals for not getting Anarumo enough talent because they hired Anarumo to replace Gus Bradley, who was fired. Anarumo is known for a wide-ranging defensive scheme designed to confuse quarterbacks with multiple looks. He has been particularly good getting the most out of his defensive backs, which is a good fit for Indianapolis and its thin secondary. The Colts weren’t great on defense last season, but not bad either, finishing 15th in DVOA and in the middle of the road in most per-play stats (the run defense was stronger than the pass defense, which was below average across the board). The line is pretty strong, especially if 2024 first-round pick Laiatu Latu continues to improve. It’s not like Anarumo is starting with a bottom-five unit. How quickly the Colts pick up the scheme will be huge. We also need to find out if Anarumo still has that magic that everyone praised him for just a few years ago. Best-case scenarioA Colts team that was bad throwing the ball (31st in passer rating as a team) and not much better against the pass (22nd in passer rating allowed) was not eliminated from playoff contention until an embarrassing Week 17 loss to a horrible New York Giants team. Part of Indianapolis posting a decent record was five wins by three or fewer points, but the Colts probably would have been a playoff team if they were just a little better passing the ball. The Colts’ hope is that signing Daniel Jones pushes Anthony Richardson to improve and have a third-year breakout. The raw physical skills are not in question. He could show rapid improvement in his third season. But that’s harder to project now due to his shoulder injury. If Richardson puts it all together, he could be a devastating dual-threat player. And Richardson has so little experience that a big jump in his development could happen. If Richardson is healthy and better, the Colts can make the playoffs. And while it wouldn’t be ideal in the big picture, if Jones takes over and provides adequate quarterback play (he could be a stabilizing player for Indianapolis’ pass catchers), the Colts could be a playoff contender in that situation as well. Nightmare scenarioIf Daniel Jones is starting Week 1, it’s not the best sign. That means Anthony Richardson’s injury affected his training camp reps, or he wasn’t good enough to win the job. If Richardson doesn’t start the season, it gets harder to see a path to the Colts feeling comfortable with him as their quarterback of the future, even though he’s just 23 years old. While there’s a scenario in which Jones plays well enough to take the Colts to the playoffs, he’s on a one-year deal and has a longer history of mediocre play. That would just complicate things for the Colts going forward. There are even worse scenarios, like Richardson playing and not making any strides, then Jones also cratering and the Colts being well out of contention. The rest of the Colts roster seems fairly bankable, it’s just the quarterback that’s a massive wild card. If the Colts finish with another losing season, we might see changes at general manager, coach and quarterback. There’s a lot on the line this season. The crystal ball saysIt’s hard to predict the Colts’ season because Anthony Richardson’s health is uncertain going into training camp. At this point, Daniel Jones should probably be considered the favorite to start Week 1. And where would that leave the Colts? Jones could be the latest quarterback to reinvent himself with a new team after failing in his first stop, but it’s more likely he replicates his underwhelming play we saw for six seasons with the Giants. Richardson seems likely to start at some point, whether he wins the job in August or takes over because Jones is not the answer, but who knows what to expect of him after last seasons’s issues. It seems hard to believe GM Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen survive without at least a winning season. If the Colts deliver another losing season and there’s no significant progress with Richardson, it seems likely that Indianapolis will be starting all over in 2026. |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOOf the 32 NFL franchises, 20 have at least one Lombardi Trophy to display. That means 12 do not. The Bills are the best bet to win one in 2025, with the Lions not far behind, per FoxSports.com: The very first Super Bowl, Super Bowl I, took place on January 15, 1967, when the Green Bay Packers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 35-10. Since that inaugural game, a total of 20 teams have won the most prestigious football matchup. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots lead the pack with six Super Bowl victories each, followed by the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, who have five championships apiece. However, there are 12 teams still seeking their first ring: the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals. As we gear up for another exciting season, could 2026 be the year that one of these franchises finally secures a Super Bowl victory? If so, who will it be? Here are the early odds for the title-less franchises to win the 2026 Super Bowl as of June 25 at DraftKings Sportsbook. 2026 Super Bowl odds for title-less teams Buffalo Bills: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)Detroit Lions: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)Cincinnati Bengals: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)Los Angeles Chargers: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)Minnesota Vikings: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)Houston Texans: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)Arizona Cardinals: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)Jacksonville Jaguars: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)Atlanta Falcons: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)Carolina Panthers: +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)Tennessee Titans: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)Cleveland Browns: +25000 (bet $10 to win $2,510 total) Among these 12 teams, eight have made Super Bowl appearances without ever winning: the Bills and Vikings have gone four times, the Bengals have appeared three times and the Falcons and Panthers have made appearances twice. The Cardinals, Chargers and Titans have made one appearance each. In the 2024-25 season, five of these teams reached the postseason, with the Buffalo Bills coming the closest to securing a championship. Quarterback Josh Allen had an impressive season, tallying 41 touchdowns — 28 passing, 12 rushing and one receiving — and he broke NFL history by becoming the first player to score 25-plus passing touchdowns, 10-plus rushing touchdowns and a receiving score in one season, earning him his first MVP award. The Bills enter the Super Bowl LX oddsboard as the top title-less team, boasting +650 odds, making them the favorite among all 32 franchises. It has been 31 years since Buffalo last reached the Super Bowl, and while it has come oh-so-close multiple times, it has yet to win. Could this finally be the year they bring home the trophy? Meanwhile, the Lions, still seeking their first Super Bowl appearance, are viewed as the second favorite at +1000 odds. After a historic 15-2 season, the best in franchise history, they earned a first-round bye but ultimately fell 45-31 to the Washington Commanders in the divisional round. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| ANTONIO BROWN, FUGITIVEIf Florida authorities want to arrest former NFL WR Antonio Brown, they will have to track him down in a foreign nation. Mike Fisher of AthlonSports.com: Former NFL great and always-controversial figure Antonio Brown is currently wanted in Miami-Dade County on an “attempted murder with a firearm” charge after a shooting that Brown was allegedly involved in during a recent celebrity boxing event. Brown, according to his warrant, is instructed to post a $10,000 bond and remain at his house until trial. We assume he hasn’t posted the bond. And based on his own claim, we assume he’s not at his house. Why not? Because rather than turn himself into police, the ex-Pittsburgh Steelers standout is brazenly announcing that he’s no longer in the United States. Posted Brown on social media on Saturday night: “I’m out the country ain’t no more Child Support tell your mama get a job.” Brown may be joking; it’s never easy to tell. A previous series of statements demonstrate that as Brown had to the arrest warrant with a bunch of posts on X, including a video of him in boxing gloves, riding a bike, and another picture accusing somebody else who “did it”. Brown was detained by police after gunshots were supposedly fired at the boxing event. But now, according to the warrant, witnesses have told police officers that Brown was the shooter, and that two shell casings were found at the scene. One man involved in the conflict alleged that Brown “began to run toward him with a firearm” and shot at him twice. For Brown, 36, this is the latest in a disturbing string of incidents tying to legal and behavioral issues since the controversial end to his NFL career where he marched off the field as a member of the Tampa Bay Bucs and was released. |
| 2026 DRAFT – GARRETT NUSSMAIEREarlier this week we ran a glowing scouting report on QB CARSON BECK from Daniel Jeremiah where he compared the erstwhile Georgia player to Eli Manning. Although it still sits in a prominent spot at NFL.com, Jeremiah authored that report prior to Beck’s less than stellar 2024 campaign with the Bulldogs and we regret not noticing that it was dated. That said, let’s see who Jeremiah sees in LSU QB GARRETT NUSSMAIER. At a time when it’s common for players to transfer if they don’t win a starting job early on in their college careers, Garrett Nussmeier is the exception to the rule. He waited his turn at LSU for three seasons, backing up Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels in 2023, before finally getting his opportunity to start in 2024, and he made a strong first impression. Nussmeier ranked sixth in the FBS with 311.7 passing yards per game and tied for 10th with 29 passing touchdowns, leading the Tigers to a 9-4 season and earning Texas Bowl MVP honors (313 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT against Baylor). The son of New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, Garrett did have his rough stretches in 2024, throwing five interceptions in a two-game span during LSU’s three-game losing streak, including a goal-line pick against Alabama. He bounced back for a strong finish to the season, though, and enters 2025 as one of the leading Heisman candidates. Will Nussmeier be able to build off his first year as QB1 and rise to the top of the 2026 class at the position with some tough competition in the mix? After breaking down his game tape from last year, here is my initial scouting report. Height, weight: 6-foot 5/8, 204 pounds (spring measurements). 2024 statistics (13 games): 337-of-525 (64.2%) for 4,052 yards (7.7 per attempt), 29 TDs and 12 INTs; 34 carries for -38 yards (-1.1 average), 3 TDs. Game tape watched: vs. Alabama (Nov. 9, 2024), at Florida (Nov. 16, 2024), vs. Oklahoma (Nov. 30, 2024). What I liked: There is a lot to like about Nussmeier’s game. It’s easy to notice how in command he is by the way he orchestrates the offense at the line of scrimmage. He lines everyone up properly and directs traffic based on what he sees from the defense. He’s a quick processor, regularly racing through progressions to find his third option. He has a tight/compact delivery and throws a soft/catchable ball. I love his toughness to hang in the pocket and deliver strikes when absorbing big hits. He’s a clunky mover, but he still manages to evade free runners at times, creating outside of the play structure. He has excellent touch on the deep ball and is also adept on over/under throws (over linebackers/under safeties). Where he needs to improve: Nussmeier needs to do a better job of protecting the football and improving his accuracy on drive throws. These two issues are connected. I love his willingness to attack tight windows, but when tries to generate extra velocity, his ball sails, leading to turnovers. He also needs to speed up his clock at times in the red zone. He locks on and the windows disappear. Evaluators are going to be critical of his limited physical traits. He lacks prototypical size/arm strength. Obviously, he can’t do anything about his height, but I have seen several quarterbacks upgrade their arm strength in the NFL. In his defense, he doesn’t play small at all. He’s comfortable in condensed space and has a good feel for climbing/sliding in the pocket to find throwing lanes. Biggest takeaway: It’s easy to identify Nussmeier as the son of a coach. He plays with the savvy and understanding of someone who’s been around the game a very long time. He gets the most out of his ability and has a presence on the field. There are areas of his game that need to improve, but he has developed a firm foundation. LSU’s schedule will provide him with several marquee matchups to display his growth in 2025. NFL teams are sold on the person, and they are excited to learn more about the player. He has a huge opportunity to help his draft stock this fall. He reminds me of: I don’t have a clean one-to-one comparison, but I do see elements of three different quarterbacks I’ve studied over the years. Nussmeier’s movement and delivery are reminiscent of Tony Romo. His touch and deep-ball trajectory/accuracy gave me some Andy Dalton vibes. His competitive nature and physical frame compare favorably to Brock Purdy. Nussmeier’s not a perfect match for any of those three players, but it feels like he comes from the same quarterback family. He might not be their brother, but he could be their cousin … or nephew! Numbers to know: Six FBS quarterbacks threw for 4,000-plus yards last season: Nussmeier and 2025 NFL Draft picks Kyle McCord, Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders and Will Howard. Of those QBs, Nussmeier was the only one to average fewer than eight yards per attempt (7.7) and post a sub-65 percent completion rate (64.0%) in 2024. |
