THE DAILY BRIEFING
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In college football – but we didn’t see this coming. Pete Thamel and Heather Dimich ofESPN.com:
USC and UCLA, two of the Pac-12’s flagship programs, are planning to leave the conference for the Big Ten as early as 2024, and a move is considered imminent, sources confirmed to ESPN on Thursday.
There is still a formal notification process, as the two schools have to let the Pac-12 know their intentions to leave. USC and UCLA also have to formally apply to the Big Ten. According to a source, that process is underway.
Multiple sources told ESPN on Thursday that the move is expected to happen. A source called the next steps “formalities,” and an announcement could come within the next 24 hours.
A source said that the exploration of finances and what it would take to make the move has been going on for weeks. While finances are playing a big role in the move, competitiveness, brand and the overall landscape of the future of the sport have played a bigger role.
“USC and UCLA have to make the decisions to position them best for the long term,” a source familiar with the move told ESPN. “The future is so uncertain we need to be operating from a position of strength.”
The Mercury News first reported the news of USC’s and UCLA’s planned departures.
The reason this move would be less disruptive than potential moves in the ACC is that USC and UCLA have a grant of rights tied to the current Pac-12 television contract, which expires after the 2023 football season and 2023-24 school year. That’s why the expectation is that both schools can go to the league for the 2024-25 season and not suffer any financial penalty.
Pac-12 officials had been nudging both Los Angeles schools for years to extend the grant of rights. The fact that they didn’t hinted that they had greater ambition.
“We just got Sooner’d and Horn’d,” a high-ranking university official at one of the Pac-12 schools told ESPN, referring to the decision made last year by Texas and Oklahoma to leave the Big 12 conference for the SEC.
The financial pressures being felt by the Pac-12 are similar to those being felt in the ACC and beyond, as conference revenue projections — which can vary and are not always linear — have the SEC and Big Ten making nearly double the amount of some of the other Power 5 leagues later this decade. Those financial pressures left USC and UCLA with the choice of bullying the Pac-12 for unequal revenue shares or going elsewhere and having a seat at the table for the long term. The impact of the finances will allow them to not only stay competitive nationally in football but also sustain the support for all sports, including women’s sports and non-revenue sports.
“With Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC, it became evident for those schools that there was only one option,” said the source familiar with the move.
It will be interesting to see how this will affect Fox’s upcoming television deal with the Big Ten, which is expected to be announced in the upcoming weeks. The addition of the two schools would bring in both the West Coast and one of the country’s most appealing media markets.
The move is gutting for the future of the Pac-12, as Fox’s added investment in UCLA and USC inventory in the Big Ten means that investments in the Pac-12, which Fox has long owned part of, will be decreased significantly. This move leaves the conference with Oregon and Washington as its top schools after losing the two biggest brand names.
“I was always of the opinion that UCLA couldn’t leave Cal,” a Pac-12 source told ESPN. “There’s no more political state than that or system than that. That was very surprising.”
Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was not immediately available for comment.
Maryland and Rutgers in the same conference as USC and UCLA? A conference with domination of the Los Angeles and Chicago markets and a toehold in New York?
Here is what is funny, this is said to be a huge blow to the Pac-12 based on football. Yet here are the last 13 Pac-12 football champions:
2009 Oregon
2010 Oregon
2011 Oregon
2012 Stanford
2013 Stanford
2014 Oregon
2015 Stanford
2016 Washington
2017 USC
2018 Washington
2019 Oregon
2020 Oregon
2021 Utah
When UCLA plays Oregon in a Rose Bowl – Oregon would be the “host team” on UCLA’s home field?
If the Big Ten was split into two divisions by traditional geographical process:
West East
USC Maryland
UCLA Rutgers
Nebraska Penn State
Iowa Michigan
Minnesota Ohio State
Wisconsin Michigan State
Illinois Indiana
Northwestern Purdue
But, even with a 9-game conference schedule – USC would play Ohio State only once every four years in a 7 and 2 format:
A USC conference schedule (in a bad year) could look like this:
Home Away
Nebraska UCLA
Minnesota Iowa
Wisconsin Illinois
Northwestern Indiana
Michigan State
So here’s a thought – a two-tiered conference modeled on English soccer.
Divide the Big Ten into two divisions, initially based on reputations:
The Leaders Division
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
USC
UCLA
Iowa
Penn State
Michigan State
The Others Division
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Rutgers
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana
Minnesota
Each team plays seven games in the division, two in the other. That means each the teams in the Others still have one marquee home game. But, at least at the start, it would be anticipated that USC and Ohio State play every year.
Lots of good games for the national TV package in the Leaders. Lots of competitive games in the Others, they are not getting beaten up by the big boys as much.
The top two teams in the Leader Division play in the conference championship game. The top two teams in the Others Division play at end of the year for advancement to the Leaders. The last place team in the Leaders is relegated to the Others.
Now if you did this, you might have Wisconsin in the Leaders and Iowa in the Others, or whatever. But after a few years, it won’t matter.
Probably, Michigan State or Iowa or UCLA fall to the Others for at least a year. But maybe it’s Penn State or another marquee team with an off year and the fall.
Purdue could have a resurgence and advance to the Leaders and stay there. Or Minnesota, or Wisconsin. Who will move up, who will fall down? Each year, the big question.
And for Rutgers and Maryland and Illinois, they have a reasonable interim goal which is to get into title competition in the Others.
We would presume there would be financial incentives to the Leaders, but not enough to cripple the Others.
But the key here is, better inventory of top games to justify the big new TV package. USC vs. Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State each year.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
WR AMARI COOPER vows to be a leader. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
Amari Cooper turned 28 earlier this month. He’s not old, but he’s the second-oldest receiver on the roster with Jakeem Grant Sr. 20 months older.
That leaves Cooper in an unfamiliar position of the old guy in the receivers room.
The nine other receivers on the team’s roster are 24 or younger.
“That’s the position I’m in now,” Cooper said, via Anthony Poisal of the team website. “These guys look at me like an old guy. They pay a lot of attention to detail, and they know the importance of coming in every day and knowing their stuff and trying to perfect everything they do.”
Cooper arrived in a trade with the Cowboys, with the Browns giving up a fifth-round choice and swapping sixth-round picks. It appears a steal for the Browns as he becomes the best receiver on the roster.
Cooper, though, is not your typical receiver. Instead, as second-year player Anthony Schwartz already has discovered, Cooper is quiet and laidback.
Cooper vows to use his voice more now that he’s the elder statesman.
“A lot of leadership comes with experience and age,” Cooper said. “It becomes easier and easier over time because, from what I see now, leadership is just experience. It’s so easy to lead once you have that experience because everything these young guys are going through, you either went through it or saw someone else previously on the team go through it, and you saw how the outcome was.”
Cooper, the fourth overall choice of the Raiders in 2015, has had five 1,000-yard seasons in his seven seasons. But he made only 68 receptions for 865 yards in 2021, though he did score eight touchdowns.
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WASHINGTON
WR TERRY McLAURIN gets a big money extension while professing his allegiance to the Commanders.
Terry McLaurin steered clear of the Commanders this offseason while seeking a new contract. Now, Washington has paid up to keep him for the long haul. With less than a month until the start of 2022 training camp, the team has signed the star wide receiver to a three-year extension worth up to $71 million, as ESPN and The Washington Post reported Tuesday, securing the former Ohio State standout through the 2025 season.
McLaurin confirmed the extension — and his commitment to Washington — on social media.
“There is no place I’d rather be or fan base I would want to represent,” McLaurin said. “I know together, we can all bring the Washington Organization back to the upper echelon of football and reestablish a winning culture. That journey begins now.”
McLaurin, 26, held out of voluntary workouts and mandatory minicamp this spring as he was due just over $3 million on the final year of his rookie contract. Now, the former third-round draft pick
The lucrative extension is just the latest in a long line of rich WR deals to be finalized this year, with McLaurin following in the footsteps of Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Mike Williams and D.J. Moore — all of whom signed big-money extensions this offseason. Assuming he maxes out the incentives on his deal, which includes a $28 million signing bonus and is more than 75% fully guaranteed, McLaurin will just eclipse Williams and Moore in terms of average annual income during the life of the extension.
The Buckeyes product has been Washington’s top pass catcher since entering the NFL. After emerging as a No. 1 target in a rookie season that saw him score a career-high seven touchdowns, McLaurin logged back-to-back 75-catch, 1,000-yard seasons from 2020-2021. He figures to be the primary outlet for new Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz in 2022.
Owner Daniel Snyder may be trying to run out the clock, hoping the Democrats on the House Committee that is investigating his ownership of Washington’s football team may lose power in November. Mike Florio:
It’s no surprise, at all. But since the ranking member of the U.S. House Oversight & Reform Committee said it on Wednesday, it needs to be repeated.
Comer called the investigation a waste of tax dollars, and not a priority for the Republican members of Congress.
“The Democrats know that the outcome of the midterm elections is not favorable for them,” Comer told the Times. “Whether it’s the Washington Football Team investigation or whatever investigation they have against any of the oil CEOs, they should probably focus on wrapping it up before Dec. 31.”
That’s one of the basic realties of our currently dysfunctional political system. Bipartisan action doesn’t occur. One party believes in regulation and accountability of private business when necessary. The other party believes it’s rarely if ever necessary.
Comer’s comments come at a time when the Committee has been unable to serve a subpoena on Commanders owner Daniel Snyder. If he’s filling to float in international waters on his superyacht for six months, maybe the subpoena will never be served.
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NFC SOUTH
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CAROLINA
Shady doings involving Panthers owner David Tepper and a contractor he is trying to fail to pay. Daniel Kaplan and Joseph Person in The Athletic:
The NFL employs ultra-conservative financial rules in part to prevent its teams from getting ensnared in lending and bankruptcy lawsuits. So when GT Real Estate (GTRE), the developer of the now scuttled Carolina Panthers practice facility and owned by the team owner David Tepper, filed for bankruptcy, a natural question was how that comported with league finance restrictions.
“GTRE is not part of the club’s corporate ownership group,” the league said on June 1 when the Chapter 11 filing happened. “GTRE does not own any football-related assets, nor have any football-related assets been pledged in any way toward the costs incurred to date or any remaining obligations.”
That contention however is being sorely tested as the largest creditor in court filings and during a marathon hearing Wednesday questioned the distinction between the Panthers and GTRE. In essence, a lawyer for contractor Mascaro/Barton Malow, whose court filing objecting to the Chapter 11 says it is owed $80 million, described GTRE as a shell company with the real money and influence coming from Tepper and the Panthers.
“Virtually every aspect of this case is tainted by the control of Tepper and the Carolina Panthers,” the contractor wrote in its motion opposing a proposed loan to GTRE from an entity controlled by Tepper, DT Sports. Later, the contractor wrote there is a “murky and suspicious structure that is the Debtor/Tepper/Carolina Panthers enterprise.” The debtor refers to GTRE.
In fact, the contractor raised the “likelihood that the Debtor’s Affiliates and other insiders (such as the Carolina Panthers) are likely targets of the bankruptcy estate,” meaning the team itself could be dragged into the bankruptcy court.
Mascaro, whose motion is supported by other creditors, argues that GTRE is part and parcel part of the Panthers. GTRE’s main point of contact before the bankruptcy was Panthers COO Mark Hart, Mascaro argued. And the Panthers directly paid $163.5 million of the $283 million spent on the Rock Hill, S.C., development before Tepper shut it down.
Tepper severed his agreement with the city of Rock Hill in April, walking away from an ambitious project that was expected to be completed in 2023. The Panthers had announced in March they were pausing construction on the facility after Rock Hill failed to issue $225 million in bonds to pay for public infrastructure associated with the project.
GTRE filed for bankruptcy on June 1 after having initially paused the $800 million project in Rock Hill, located about 25 miles south of the team’s downtown stadium and headquarters in Charlotte. The Panthers had grand visions for the 240-acre site, telling South Carolina politicians it would bring jobs and businesses — retail shops, restaurants and a hotel — to the area. Construction began in 2020 and the steel frame of the would-be, state-of-the-art headquarters is visible from Interstate 77, along with the work on a new interstate exchange that’s being funded by the state of South Carolina.
Tepper, the hedge fund manager listed by Forbes with a net worth of $16.7 billion, invested the $163.5 million into the project from the Panthers, and another $55 million through DT Sports, Jonathan Hickman, GT’s restructuring officer, testified Wednesday.
The hearing revolved around whether the court would approve $20 million in financing from DT Sports to GTRE, but the undercurrent was the thin lines between Tepper’s sports holdings and the real estate company, which all share the same address in Charlotte.
“Considering the history of insider dealings that predate this Case, including, without limitation, the fact that the Carolina Panthers have admittedly and directly paid the vast majority of development costs to date (most certainly due to the grossly undercapitalized shell company that is the Debtor), rigorous scrutiny must be given to the proposed financing,” Mascaro argued in court papers.
Those papers took shots at Tepper as “one of the most seasoned and crafty players in the distressed market space. He has made his career in leveraging distressed situations to his benefit.”
A GTRE spokesman on Wednesday declined to comment.
Creditor lawyers for Mascaro, Rock Hill and York County spent so much time cross-examining Hickman, largely about the ties between Tepper’s companies, that the hearing stretched more than seven hours and will conclude Thursday.
GT’s corporate filings with the North Carolina Secretary of State list Tepper as the owner, but nothing about DT Sports or the Panthers.
Asked about the allegations of the Panthers’ ties to GTRE, an NFL spokesman replied, “Don’t know anything about the creditor’s claim or if it’s accurate.”
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com on the obstacles confronting a return of WR DeANDRE HOPKINS and a timetable for his return.
Even with training camp a month away, the Arizona Cardinals have a game plan for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins, who is coming off an MCL injury suffered in December, will be brought along slowly during the start of training camp after the Cardinals were “really cautious” with him during their offseason programs. Because Hopkins will not play during the first six weeks of the regular season while serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy, the Cardinals must take a targeted approach to his recovery.
“We’re trying to come up with a great plan that rolls right up to Week 7 of the season and make sure we’re smart about it,” Kingsbury said. “But, the main thing I don’t want him to do is ramp up, make a bunch of plays in training camp, do this, practice really hard and then six weeks he’s not doing anything.”
Arizona will put Hopkins on a pitch count of sorts. He won’t practice every day and they’ll be careful with which days he does. The plan might include Hopkins practicing for a couple of days and then sitting out or a similar routine.
Kingsbury wants to minimize Hopkins’ reps while making sure he gets some quality field and speed time.
Hopkins was injured in Week 14 against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, an injury which eventually led to surgery. The receiver had 42 catches for 572 yards and eight touchdowns in 10 games with the Cardinals last season.
There’s a precedent for a player returning after injury to a shortened season because of a suspension. In 2018, former New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman was suspended the first four games of the season after missing the previous season with a torn ACL. He went on to lead the Patriots with 850 receiving yards that year.
Hopkins, who’s entering his 10th season, was running at the start of minicamp practices without a brace on. He seemed to be in good spirits talking to right tackle Kelvin Beachum and a few coaches who were watching practice as guests. Hopkins also went through a few individual drills off to the side under the watchful eye of a trainer.
Marquise Brown, who joined the Cardinals in a trade with the Baltimore Ravens on the first day of the NFL draft, doesn’t know what to expect playing without Hopkins because he doesn’t have anything to base it on. Brown said he doesn’t know what his role will be without Hopkins but his goal is to “execute.”
“Wherever I’m at, that’s what I’m gonna do,” Brown said.
But Brown does know one thing: “When he’s back on the field, it’s gonna be great.” Playing alongside Hopkins will be “very fun and exciting,” Brown added.
The two have talked a bit since Brown was acquired. They celebrated their birthdays two days apart — Brown’s is June 4 and Hopkins’ is June 6 — so that, Brown said, “was pretty cool.”
Hopkins’ presence on the field has been paramount to the success of the Cardinals and quarterback Kyler Murray. With Hopkins on the field the past two seasons, Murray has a total QBR of 61, a yards per attempt of 7.1 and completes 69% of his passes. Without him those numbers drop to 49, 6.7 and 64%.
“We have a good plan,” Kingsbury said. “But, he looks great. He’s excited. I know he’s frustrated he can’t play the first six but like I’ve said before, I think we’ll get the best version of them those last 11 and [it’ll] be fun to watch.”
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
WR JERRY JEUDY on what he has noticed about QB RUSSELL WILSON. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy was not able to participate in every aspect of Denver’s offseason program, missing time with a groin strain.
But as Jeudy enters his third pro season, he’s likely going to have the best quarterback play of his young career with Russell Wilson.
Even though Jeudy wasn’t on the field for all of OTAs, he and Wilson still began to establish a rapport. Jeudy’s looking forward to really getting things going with his new quarterback in the coming months.
“Every detail matters with him. You learn a lot, just how hard he works and how focused he is when he’s on the field and on the board,” Jeudy said this week, via Troy Renck of Denver7. “You realize how locked in he is. I’ve learned a lot. He’s a great quarterback. I am excited to play with him.
“I mean it’s going to be very exciting. I feel like we are going to be a very explosive team. I feel like we’ve got all the pieces we needed, so we’ve just gotta put it together. And I am excited that is going to happen.”
If the Broncos are going to get explosive offensive play, Jeudy should be a big part of it. Injuries kept Jeudy to just 10 games last season and he caught 38 passes for 467 yards with no touchdowns. As a rookie in 2020, Jeudy caught 52 passes for 856 yards with three TDs.
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AFC NORTH
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CLEVELAND
Tuesday night there was an AP report that sounded like a leak, that the NFL would accept a mere six-to-eight week suspension for QB DESHAUN WATSON if Sue Robinson so ruled. Rob Maaidi of The AP had the tweets:
I’m told the NFL inisted on an indefinite suspension while Deshaun Watson’s legal team argued there’s no basis for that punishment. The hearing will continue on Wednesday in Delaware and Watson is expected to be present for the duration.
More: I’m also told the NFL, despite insisting on indefinite suspension, wants to avoid the appeals process – source said “a terrible situation for everyone involved” – so league is more likely to abide by Sue Robinson’s ruling IF she came back with 6-8 games.
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com wasn’t buying it:
For starters, why would the NFL leak this critical concession? Does it fear that, if Judge Robinson believes the NFL is destined to seize upon an inherently rigged appeal process, she’d be more likely to impose no discipline at all on Watson? After all, that’s the only way under the Collective Bargaining Agreement to prevent any appeal, which would then be resolved by the Commissioner.
It’s hard not to wonder whether it’s all a ruse aimed at getting her to impose some discipline, so that the league could then appeal to the Commissioner, whose employees already have decided that Watson should be suspended for at least a year.
Remember, the Commissioner cannot afford to be perceived as being too lenient with Watson. It would be difficult to sell to anyone the idea that the league has simply accepted something far less than what the NFL wanted, simply to avoid prolonging a “terrible situation.” Given the steps of the process that the NFL and NFL Players Association collectively bargained, the league has the absolute right to take to the Commissioner any decision from Judge Robinson, other than a decision to not discipline Watson at all. Why would the league simply accept Judge Robinson’s decision, if it falls far short of what the league wants?
Frankly, it feels like a rope-a-dope maneuver by the league. By making Judge Robinson believe that the league wouldn’t appeal her decision if it lands in the range of 6-8 games, perhaps she’d be less inclined to find that Watson shouldn’t be disciplined at all, since that’s otherwise the only want to keep the Commissioner from imposing the punishment that the league currently wants. By leaking this to the AP after the first day of the hearings, the league quite possibly is using the media to negotiate with Judge Robinson for moderate discipline, with a wink-nod that her decision wouldn’t be disturbed if it lands in the supposedly preferred range.
If it gets her to impose 6-8 games under the assumption that the league won’t challenge it, the league can then initiate the appeal process and ask for what it wanted in the first place.
Really, how much more “terrible” would the situation become if the league appeals Judge Robinson’s decision to the Commissioner? It’s not as if there would be another full-blown hearing. That’s happening now. The appeal to the Commissioner would be much more streamlined and efficient. It would take less time and effort. And, by the very language of the CBA, it would allow the Commissioner to implement the very punishment that his office currently is trying to secure.
Anyone who knows anything about the manner in which the league office under the leadership of Roger Goodell has behaved for nearly 16 years knows that the league will be as aggressive as it chooses to be. Despite periodic missteps (including most notably the bungled handing of the Ray Rice case), the Commissioner has lived up to his reputation as The Enforcer. Why would anyone believe that he’d accept a 6-8 game suspension for Watson when the league office is currently pushing for a minimum ban of at least one year?
No, it looks and feels like an effort to get Judge Robinson to think that her ruling will be safe, in order to minimize any temptation to slam the door on the Commissioner’s appellate jurisdiction by finding that Watson shouldn’t be punished at all. And if we’re able to see this, she is, too.
Bottom line? We don’t buy it. And she shouldn’t, either. Nothing leaked to the Associated Press or anyone else is binding on the NFL. Once the league gets the 6-8 game suspension that it now seeks, the league can appeal it to the Commissioner. Some will say, “But I thought they weren’t going to appeal a suspension of that duration?” The league, at that point, can either ignore those questions or simply say, “We never officially said that.”
Given that this is the first application of the new process arising from the 2020 labor deal, there’s no precedent, no history, no past practice. Everyone is plowing new ground, sailing through uncharted waters.
The league has a long history of doing everything it can to get anything it wants. Currently, it wants to suspend Watson for at least a year. It’s very hard to imagine that the league would just shrug and accept 6-8 games, when it knows that it can appeal the case directly to the person who runs the league office for more. Our guess is that the league wants to be sure that Judge Robinson imposes some discipline, so that the Commissioner can than impose the full extent of the discipline the league wants.
Florio wants to make a deal by reaching back into the past.
As the third day of the Deshaun Watson hearing begins, with no information regarding the evidence or the arguments making their way to the media, the process continues toward a decision from Judge Sue L. Robinson. Now or at any time before that happens, the two sides could reach a deal on an agreed punishment.
Efforts previously occurred. They failed, reportedly because the league wanted nothing less than a one-year suspension.
It can still happen. An idea for getting it done appears below.
While recently perusing Article 46 of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, I noticed Section 5. Here’s what it says: “Players who are placed by the Commissioner on the Exempt list prior to the determination of discipline and any appeal therefrom under the Personal Conduct Policy will be paid while on the Commissioner Exempt list and credited for the regular and postseason games missed against any suspension ultimately imposed. Notwithstanding any other provision in this Agreement, if such a suspension is ultimately imposed, the player must promptly return and shall have no further right to any salary for the games for which he was paid while on the Commissioner Exempt list that were credited to the suspension (i.e., for a number of games no greater than the length of the suspension).”
In English, this means that a player placed on paid leave who is eventually suspended gets credit for the games missed while on paid leave. He simply has to surrender the money he made while on paid leave.
Technically, Watson wasn’t on paid leave in 2021. The league never had to decide whether to invoke the Commissioner Exempt list, because he was on de facto paid leave; he didn’t want to play for the Texans and the Texans didn’t want him playing. He received $10 million from the Texans to not play.
Now for the idea. The NFL and the NFL Players Association, acting on Watson’s behalf, could agree that 2021 will be treated as a suspension, with Watson losing the $10 million he was paid. Also, he’ll miss eight games to start the 2022 season.
He missed all of 2021. That should count for something. Moreover, this approach would give the league a way to create the impression that it imposed significant punishment on Watson: 25 total games, without pay.
Collecting the $10 million he received in 2021 also would help counter the impression that the Browns structured a deal to minimize the financial consequences of a suspension in 2022, since his base salary is only $1.035 million. Instead, he’d lose a total of $10.46 million in salary. (He also could be required to surrender 8/18ths of his $9 million signing-bonus allocation for 2022; that’s another $4 million gone for good.)
Some would say this makes too much sense to ever happen. It definitely makes sense for the two sides to be trying to come up with ideas for an agreed solution that works for everyone.
Barring a deal, there’s nothing in the CBA that would prevent Judge Robinson from basing a decision on the notion that 2021 should be treated as a suspension after the fact, with Watson losing $10 million and getting credit for 17 games missed.
Although Watson’s absence in 2021 didn’t technically relate to the off-field issues, he surely would have been traded but for the allegations made against him. If he’s willing to give up the $10 million he made in 2021, why shouldn’t 2021 be treated as part of the final punishment?
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
An update on the health of Bills co-owner Kim Pegula. Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:
Buffalo Bills and Sabres co-owner Kim Pegula is “progressing well” as she deals with her health, per a statement shared by the Pegula family, and she is currently “resting and rehabilitating.”
The family initially confirmed that Pegula was receiving medical treatment on June 14 due to “unexpected health issues.”
“We are grateful for the medical professionals providing her care and to everyone for their prayers and well wishes,” the Pegula family continued in a statement Tuesday. “We ask that you please continue to respect our need for privacy during this time.”
Pegula’s daughter, tennis player Jessica Pegula, said from Wimbledon on Wednesday said her mother is “doing a lot better now.”
“That’s why I’m here. If she wasn’t doing well, I probably wouldn’t have come. I flew out Wednesday last week, and within that time she was in a really good condition, where I felt like everything was fine, and I felt like my family had everything under control. She’s progressing and she’s been doing rehab,” she said. “I felt comfortable coming here. But that’s why I didn’t play any warm-up tournaments.”
Kim Pegula, 53, is president and CEO of Pegula Sports and Entertainment, and president and co-owner of the Bills and Sabres. She oversees the business operations of both teams and is the first woman to be president of both an NFL and NHL team.
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THIS AND THAT
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NFL MVP BETS
Vic Tafur of The Athletic looks at the NFL MVP odds and comes up with two choices for his bets, one who is quite the long shot:
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the favorite to win the NFL MVP award this season, according to BetMGM. That’s for good reason, says Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs quarterback and 2018 MVP who BetMGM has slotted as the No. 2 favorite.
“He gets those rushing yards, man,” Mahomes said before The Match golf competition in Las Vegas in early June in which he teamed up with Allen but lost the 12-hole event to the duo of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
“That dude is over there jumping over and hurdling people, getting those highlights,” Mahomes said, adding that he thinks Allen will earn the hardware “if Aaron gives it up at some point and not just keep winning it.”
Rodgers won his fourth MVP last season and second consecutive, but he and the Packers lost No. 1 receiver Davante Adams in a trade to the Raiders. Which does make it Allen’s award to lose. The Bills are arguably the best team in the league, and Allen, 26, is coming off two torrid playoff games in which he threw 14 incomplete passes (out of 62) and nine touchdowns.
That’s why Allen is the favorite at 7 to 1, according to BetMGM. Is that a good bet? Let’s look at all the different categories of players and narrow the field before we pick one winner and one longshot.
There will be no mention of defensive players. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt had 22 1/2 sacks — more than the entire Falcons team — last season and won the Defensive Player of the Year award but didn’t receive any MVP votes.
The top guns
Josh Allen Bills 7-1
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 8-1
Tom Brady Buccaneers 8-1
Aaron Rodgers Packers 9-1
Allen has overtaken Mahomes as the favorite during an offseason in which Mahomes lost receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins and then watched the rest of the AFC West teams start stacking up talent. The Bills, meanwhile, are BetMGM’s favorites to win the Super Bowl and Allen is their best player — who might still be getting better — and he has all his toys back plus a new one in receiver Jamison Crowder. Allen did lose offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants’ head coaching job and the Bills want to run the ball more, but those aren’t really good enough reasons to fade Allen. Or … are they?
Never bet against Brady. Right? But that doesn’t mean you bet on a 45-year-old guy (in August) who might be a tiny bit sad that he is not a player-owner for the Dolphins right now. And he is going to miss Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown as well. Rodgers won the award last season despite angering a lot of people with all of his podcast appearances — and despite Brady having a better year statistically. If Rodgers pulls off another 13 wins this season without Adams, he might make it three MVPs in a row. But that’s not happening. I clearly don’t think you can replace guys like Hill and Adams in one offseason.
So, moving on to the next round is … Allen.
The young guns
Justin Herbert Chargers 9-1
Joe Burrow Bengals 12-1
Everybody loves Justin Herbert, and what’s not to love? He improved from 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns as a rookie to 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in Year 2, and the Chargers are better this season. The AFC West is tough, but we can see bettors have moved Herbert from 14 to 1 to 9 to 1.
I like Joe Burrow better, though. His stats weren’t as flashy as Herbert’s a year after major, major, major knee surgery, but he threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdown passes and led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. Unlike Herbert, he has shown he can win big games, plus the Bengals finally addressed their offensive line this season.
Burrow’s 12 to 1 was the first value bet that jumped out on this entire board, so he moves on to the final round.
The other QBs
Matthew Stafford Rams 14-1
Dak Prescott Cowboys 14-1
Russell Wilson Broncos 14-1
Lamar Jackson Ravens 20-1
Kyler Murray Cardinals 20-1
Jalen Hurts Eagles 25-1
Derek Carr Raiders 25-1
Matthew Stafford had the season all quarterbacks stuck on losing teams dream of, going to Los Angeles and winning the Super Bowl. And he didn’t sniff an MVP vote. (Rodgers won with 39 votes, followed by Brady’s 10 and one for Rams receiver Cooper Kupp.)
A bet on Dak Prescott is a bet on Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, and that seems a little foolish at this point. Plus, question Amari Cooper’s love for football all you want but he is pretty talented and Prescott will miss him.
Russell Wilson has been a popular bet (he opened at 30 to 1) with his move to Denver, but Seattle sure seemed a little too excited to get rid of its franchise quarterback. Wilson was never great at going through his progression of reads when he was young and healthy, and at 33, he is not extending or making as many plays with his legs anymore. Lamar Jackson won the MVP three years ago but the Ravens are going to run the ball too much for him to put up big numbers. Kyler Murray is a fun fantasy player but is he really good? I don’t think the Cardinals know the answer to that one yet.
Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr are interesting because if the Eagles and Raiders win and make the playoffs, the quarterbacks will get the credit. (The same is true in reverse, as well). Hurts and Carr each saw their teams add stud receivers in A.J. Brown and Adams, and the Eagles have the much easier schedule, so the choice in this group is Hurts at 25 to 1.
The non-QBs
Derrick Henry Titans 50-1
Jonathan Taylor Colts 50-1
Ja’Marr Chase Bengals 50-1
Cooper Kupp Rams 66-1
Saquon Barkley Giants 250-1
Quarterbacks have won the last nine MVP awards. Running backs are the only three non-QBs to have won the award since 2001, and they get so little respect nowadays it’s sad.
Todd Gurley left body parts all over the field in carrying the Rams to 11 wins in 2017, and if he can’t win it for that season (2,093 combined yards rushing and receiving, 19 touchdowns), no running back ever will again. (Christian McCaffrey had better numbers in 2019, but the Panthers were bad and he enjoyed a lot of garbage time.)
Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor having the same odds is a cute sign that you are burning money on a random number. Ja’Marr Chase is great but Burrows throws him the ball so he can’t win MVP. Kupp fell 18 yards short of setting an NFL record for yards receiving and got one vote last season. Do it again and maybe he gets two votes.
If you squint really, really hard, you could make a case for Saquon Barkley at those huge odds. He is a highlight machine who is finally healthy, in great shape and plays in a huge media market that will crown him over Daniel Jones if the Giants win.
But … no one in this category is winning MVP.
The longshots
Deshaun Watson Browns 40-1
Trey Lance 49ers 40-1
Kirk Cousins Vikings 50-1
Mac Jones Patriots 50-1
Matt Ryan Colts 50-1
Trevor Lawrence Jaguars 80-1
Baker Mayfield Browns 80-1
Deshaun Watson is the worst bet on the board, for the simple reason that he may get suspended and miss a bunch of games. (A disciplinary hearing for Watson began Tuesday with the NFL’s and NFL Players Association’s appointed disciplinary officer, Sue L. Robinson, as they decide on a punishment for the 24 civil lawsuits filed by women accusing him of sexual misconduct and sexual assault during massage appointments.)
Trey Lance is the quarterback for a very good 49ers team with a creative offensive mind in Kyle Shanahan, but 40 to 1 just aren’t good enough odds for the kind of leap we are talking about. Especially with Jimmy Garoppolo still hanging around for now.
Nobody likes Kirk Cousins, and seeing Mac Jones as more than a very solid quarterback in a conservative offense is projecting a lot. The fact that Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield have the same odds … I am not sure which one I am sadder for.
Which leaves us with Matt Ryan, my second-favorite pick on the whole board. More on him in a minute.
The final four
Josh Allen 7-1
Joe Burrow 12-1
Jalen Hurts 25-1
Matt Ryan 50-1
Burrow led the NFL with a 70.4 completion percentage and 8.9 yards per pass attempt despite being sacked a league-leading 51 times. And that was in his first year back from ACL and MCL knee surgery. It’s hard to go against Allen, but there is not a lot of street cred in going with the chalk, plus you could make a case that Burrow has more upside, while the Bills may rely on their running game and their great defense, which added future Hall of Fame pass rusher Von Miller, even more.
So Burrow is the pick, and you obviously want to hedge that with a longshot. Ryan is the choice over Hurts because he is on a better team that has been starved for good quarterback play since Andrew Luck retired in 2019. If the Colts finally get over the hump, Ryan will be one of the biggest stories in the league. And apparently he’s still got it.
“I always knew he was a great passer, but his accuracy is insane,” Colts coach Frank Reich told reporters at last month’s minicamp.
Ryan, 37, said it’s been “rejuvenating” leaving the Falcons for the Colts — a team with a better offensive line, better receivers, better running backs and better coaches. Imagine that …
Ryan won the MVP award in 2016, and I think that helps him with sportswriters who like to prove they got something right once. They’re also big on validation, and I can see all the headlines now about how Ryan was a deserving Hall of Famer all along but the 2022 season really put him over the top. (He definitely deserves it more than Philip Rivers, but we digress.)
So, there you go. Burrow at 12-1 and Ryan at 50-1. Book ’em, Dano.
Using Tafur’s methodology, who are the DB’s picks?
The Final Four
Tom Brady Buccaneers 8-1
He should have won last year, voters will look to make amends if he gives them reasons.
Joe Burrow Bengals 12-1
We would take Burrow at 12-1 over Herbert at 9-1 for the odds.
Matthew Stafford Rams 14-1
Well positioned for success, has a career that deserves one such award (also Wilson)
Kirk Cousins Vikings 50-1
Could have a monster statistical year that will command attention if Vikes beat out GB
Only two bets? Brady and Stafford.
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