AROUND THE NFL

Daily Briefing

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

When QB MITCH TRUBISKY looks over his shoulder, he will see veteran QB NICK FOLES.  The Bears acquired him from the Jaguars on Wednesday for a 4^th round pick.

DETROIT

The Lions ink CB DESMOND TRUFANT to a two-year deal, clearing the way for a trade of CB DARIUS SLAY.  Jelani Scott of NFL.com:

Desmond Trufant is headed to the Motor City.

Hours after his release from the Falcons, the veteran cornerback is signing with the Detroit Lions, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, per an informed source.

Pelissero added that the deal is for two years, $21 million.

ESPN first reported the news.

Trufant, 29, dealt with a number of injuries in 2019, which limited him to just nine starts. He missed Weeks 6-8 (Week 9 bye) with a toe injury only to return in Week 11 and play until Week 14 when he broke his forearm and landed on injured reserve. He contributed 18 tackles, a career-high four interceptions and seven passes defended in those appearances.

The 22nd overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Trufant burst onto the scene with a strong first three seasons en route to being named as a Pro Bowl alternate in 2015. Unfortunately, he’s been hampered by ailments in two of the last four seasons; in 2016, he also played nine games before being sidelined with a shoulder injury, missing the team’s infamous run to Super Bowl LI.

In the seasons that weren’t cut short, Trufant started 79 of a possible 80 games and played a vital role on the Falcons defense, often being the one to shadow the opposing team’s most lethal receiver.

Trufant’s arrival in Detroit, in addition to the team bringing in former Patriots safety Duron Harmon, will provide a boost as it attempts to sure up the secondary. The move will also give them a peace of mind as they continue to deliberate on the future of Darius Slay.

ESPN’s Josina Anderson hears that Slay is going to the Eagles.

@JosinaAnderson

I’m told there are ongoing discussions right now regarding the framework of a 3-year extension as part of a trade that would send CB Darius Slay to the #Eagles, per source.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com says QB DAK PRESCOTT should be fine with his current position as a franchise tagged QB:

Dak Prescott

Players don’t normally celebrate when they are tagged as a franchise player. The arrangement locks them into a one-year contract with no future guarantees. But assuming Prescott is taking a long-term approach, the 2016 fourth-round quarterback should be thrilled to receive the exclusive-rights tag from the Dallas Cowboys.

If nothing else, the tag puts Prescott one year closer to testing his true value on the open market. If he wanted to, he could follow in the footsteps of Kirk Cousins by playing under a tag in 2020 and 2021 — earning close to $70 million in those two years — and then assume that a third tag in 2022 would be cap-prohibitive.

Assuming his performance doesn’t regress in the meantime, Prescott would be a 28-year-old unrestricted free-agent quarterback in 2022. Cousins was 29, with only one Pro Bowl on his résumé, when the Vikings handed him an NFL-record $84 million in full guarantees. Prescott could command much more, and if his deal is short enough, he’d get back to the table or the open market again in his early 30s.

Cousins’ second deal, which he agreed to terms on this week, assured him of a $150 million haul in his first five seasons in Minnesota. Looked at one way, Prescott has taken the first step toward raking in $200 million or more between 2020 through 2024.

NEW YORK GIANTS

PHILADELPHIA

According to ESPN’s Josina Anderson (see DETROIT for the tweet), the Eagles are closing in on a deal that would land them CB DARIUS SLAY from the Lions.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Dan Quinn coached LB DANTE FOWLER at Florida.  A lot has happened to both men since 2012, and now they are re-united.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The Atlanta Falcons added a much-needed upgrade to the pass rush.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport and NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that the Falcons are expected to sign pass rusher Dante Fowler to a three-year deal, per a source informed of the pact.

A weak point of Dan Quinn’s defense, Atlanta has spent years trying to upgrade the edge-rush position to no avail. They spent the week shedding cap space and watching the likes of Austin Hooper land elsewhere in free agency in hopes of landing a player they believe can bring heat off the edge.

Fowler is that man.

After disappointing as the No. 3 overall pick in Jacksonville, Fowler spent the past year and a half rehabbing his image in Los Angeles. In his first full season with the Rams on a prove-it deal, Fowler compiled 11.5 sacks, 58 tackles (16 for loss) and six passes defended. The 25-year-old showed he could win one-on-one matchups on the edge.

Benefiting from playing alongside Aaron Donald, Fowler made a dramatic leap in production last season. The Falcons are betting he’ll retain that improvement sliding with Grady Jarrett rather than revert to his Jacksonville days after getting paid.

He also reunites with Quinn, who coached him at Florida.

TAMPA BAY

At 845 a.m. on Thursday, perhaps the only sports website where the name Brady has not appeared on the front page belongs to the tampering-conscious Buccaneers.com.

And there is a delay in the contract.

Parcells, Spurrier, Parcells, Favre…

A delay in the contract.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

There wasn’t much negotiation before Tom Brady selected the Buccaneers over the Chargers, but apparently there’s negotiation now.

Amid multiple reports that Brady will sign with the Buccaneers, ESPN’s Adam Schefter is paying homage to colleague Lee Corso’s catch phrase by reporting that the two sides are “still trying to finalize contract language,” and that the discussions will extend into Thursday.

Schefter doesn’t elaborate on the supposed problem; he says only that “[c]ontract language [is] more challenging this offseason than any time in recent memory.”

So what’s challenging about it? There’s a new CBA, which makes structuring the deal a lot more easy than it would have been. The only complication comes from the league’s COVID-19 procedures, and the biggest challenge there relates to the procedure for physicals.

As explained in the memo sent by the league to all teams on March 16, the physical exam can happen only under the auspices of a local, neutral physician who can conduct the exam without either the player or the doctor having to travel a significant distance. The memo expressly states, however, that the player may refuse to undergo a physical conducted by whatever doctor the league finds in the player’s current geographic location.

So if the unique nature of the current offseason is impacting the finalization of contract language and if, as PFT reported on Wednesday, Brady set the terms and the Bucs and Chargers agreed to them, the only thing that it can be is that the Bucs want Brady to take a physical and he doesn’t want to take one.

If that’s the reason (and frankly it’s hard to imagine what else the reason would be), why not report it? Well, that could possibly make Tom look unreasonable. And so Schefter’s report stops short of including the kind of clarity that could make Tom look bad.

There’s also a chance, as an industry source observed, that Schefter — who didn’t break the news of Brady to Tampa — is trying to un-break the story so that he can then re-break it.

Brady was on quite a few injury reports the last few years.

And, according to reporting by Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times, that dinner at Bern’s Steakhouse with Brady, Derek Jeter, Jeff Vinik and Bill Gates – did not happen.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

If you thought T ANDREW WHITWORTH was either going to retire or sign a one-year deal – you were wrong on both counts.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The Los Angeles Rams are losing several defensive players to free agency, but veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth isn’t going anywhere.

Whitworth is signing a three-year contract with the Rams, per his agents. According to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport, via an informed source, the deal is worth $30 million and Whitworth could make up to $37.5M with $12.5M fully guaranteed. Rapoport added that it’s the highest-paying contract signed by a non-QB, age 35 or older in NFL history.

The 38-year-old blindside protector has contemplated retirement the past several seasons but returned to provide stability to the Rams O-line. It’s a good thing for Jared Goff, too, because the contingency plans if Whitworth decided to walk looked bleak.

The veteran left tackle has solidified the Rams left side the past three seasons after spending his first 11 years with the Cincinnati Bengals.

While Whitworth’s play dipped slightly at points last season, he remains a stalwart pass blocker, giving up just one sack in 2019, per Pro Football Focus.

Even if his play isn’t at an All-Pro level any longer, the Rams couldn’t afford to lose Whitworth. The three-year deal should take him through the end of his career, whenever he ultimately decides to walk away.

– – –

The Rams have also signed DE LEONARD FLOYD, a Bears semi-bust.

Dante Fowler won’t be around to help open SoFi Stadium, and the Rams didn’t waste much time finding his replacement.

Los Angeles is signing Leonard Floyd, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero and Mike Garafolo reported.

Floyd was released by the Bears Tuesday after Chicago signed edge rusher Robert Quinn to a three-year deal. When the Rams didn’t retain Fowler, they turned their attention to Floyd. The former first-round pick of the Bears comes to Los Angeles with 18.5 sacks under his belt in four seasons, and he’ll be joining a team that is starting a new era under first-time defensive coordinator Brandon Staley.

Floyd hasn’t yet fulfilled his potential in his four seasons, but this isn’t a huge risk for the Rams, who could see quite the return if the Georgia product flourishes in his new home. At the very least, Floyd’s 54 starts in four seasons — including 32 starts in a possible 32 games in the last two seasons — proves he can be counted on to be available.

SEATTLE

@BIrvin_WVU11

IM SO HAPPY TO BE GOING HOME!!!! 12’s I love you!

That’s what DE BRUCE IRVIN tweeted upon signing with the Seahawks.

More from Jelani Scott of NFL.com:

Bruce Irvin is coming home again.

According to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport, per an informed source, the 32-year-old defensive end has agreed to terms with the Seattle Seahawks, reuniting him with Pete Carroll and the franchise that drafted him 15th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Irvin spent the 2019 campaign with the Panthers, and registered 36 tackles, 8.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a safety in 13 appearances (12 starts). Carolina was Irvin’s third team since leaving Seattle in 2015; he spent three seasons with the Raiders and one with the Falcons before heading to Charlotte.

An original member of the vaunted “Legion of Boom,” Irvin’s first run with the ‘Hawks lasted three seasons, and garnered him a Super Bowl ring in 2014 after Seattle drubbed the Broncos. On his career, Irvin has tallied 303 tackles, 52 sacks, three interceptions (two pick-sixes) and 16 forced fumbles.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com looks at the deal that brought DT JURRELL CASEY to Denver:

Titans trade Jurrell Casey to the Broncos

Denver Broncos get: DT Jurrell Casey

Tennessee Titans get: 2020 seventh-round pick

Broncos grade: B+

Titans grade: D+

This is a straight salary dump for the Titans, who are getting the 237th pick in return for a guy who was arguably their best defensive player the past five seasons. Tennessee is going to replace Casey in its starting lineup with 2019 first-round pick Jeffery Simmons, who missed most of his rookie season because of a torn ACL but flashed during Tennessee’s postseason run. The move frees up just under $10 million on the 2020 cap for the Titans.

This is an easy victory for the Broncos, whose three starters along the defensive line are all free agents. Casey isn’t in the top tier of interior pass-rushers, but he’s a tough two-way player who should help create pass-rushing opportunities off of stunts and twists for Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Denver coach Vic Fangio will likely use Casey in the Akiem Hicks role, and given what lesser players are getting paid in free agency, bringing in Casey on what amounts to a three-year, $37.9 million deal with no guaranteed money is a good use of a late seventh-round pick.

The question now: What are the Titans clearing out money to do? If it’s to create cash or cap space for a massive Derrick Henry extension, it’s probably not going to be a great use of money. If it’s for something else, we’ll reevaluate this grade later.

Add QB JOE FLACCO to the list of QBs on the street.  Mike Klis of the 9News.com:

Joe Flacco will soon become a Broncos’ former quarterback after Denver reached a 2-year contract agreement Tuesday night with Jeff Driskel, sources told 9NEWS.

Per the sources, the Broncos are expected to either release or trade Flacco by week’s end. The official start of free agency begins at 2 p.m. Wednesday.

The free-agent negotiating window that ran Monday and Tuesday enabled Broncos general manager John Elway to nab Driskel, who in three NFL seasons has played for San Francisco, Cincinnati and last season with Detroit.

Driskel played well in a preseason game for the 49ers against the Broncos in 2016, completing 6 of 7 passes for 66 yards. He is close friends with Broncos safety Justin Simmons.

Driskel started eight games the past two years and posted a 1-7 record with the Bengals and Lions. He is a superior athlete who was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 39th round in the 2013 draft and ran a 4.56-second 40 at the 2016 Combine, fastest among quarterbacks.

With Lock using mobility to his advantage last year and so many NFL teams going with more athletic quarterbacks, Elway wants his QBs to be able to move around.

The Broncos had previously been in discussions for Houston backup quarterback AJ McCarron before he decided to return to the Texans on a one-year, $4 million deal.

With Lock the team’s 2020 starter after he posted an impressive 4-1 record in his first five NFL starts last year, Elway also wanted an experienced backup quarterback.

And it won’t be Flacco, the longtime Baltimore Raven and former Super Bowl MVP whom the Broncos acquired last year in exchange for a fourth-round draft pick. Flacco was 2-6 through the Broncos’ first eight games in 2019 – he had the lead in three losses in which the defense surrendered game-losing scores on the final drive – until he suffered a season-ending neck injury against Indianapolis in week 8.

Although Flacco’s neck has not yet been cleared by the Broncos’ medical staff, he has no more guaranteed dollars left on his contract and the team is expected to let him go.

– – –

FB ANDY JANOVICH is headed to Cleveland.  More from Klis:

It took a day or so for Vic Fangio’s decision to fire offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello and replace him with Pat Shurmur to sink in.

But once it did, there was reason to wonder: What about Jano?

The fullback, which was Andy Janovich’s position, played a significant role in the Gary Kubiak, and then Bill Musgrave and Scangarello running scheme since the Nebraska product in the sixth round of the 2016 draft. But Shurmur’s offense, while also steeped in West Coast principles, has evolved away from the fullback and towards more three-receiver sets.

What about Jano? Broncos general manager John Elway adapted to his coaches by trading Janovich to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a 7th round draft pick in 2021, a source told 9NEWS, which was the first to report of the transaction.

Janovich was extremely popular inside the Broncos’ locker room and with the team’s fans as he has a strong presence and candid personality about him. He also plays with a blue-collar, ram-it-up-there style that draws universal admiration across the football landscape.

When healthy, Janovich was one of the league’s best fullbacks as he’s a terrific lead blocker and special teamer, while also having the ability to make a play with the ball in his hands.

But by its very nature, fullback is not an ideal for position long-time health. Janovich missed five games as a rookie and suffered two injuries last year that caused him to miss another nine games.

But in between, the Broncos thought enough of Janovich to sign him to a three-year, $5.7 million contract extension last season. The bulk of that contract now goes to the Browns where head coach Kevin Stefanski spent the previous season training under Kubiak’s offensive system in Minnesota.

The Broncos will have to eat the $1.35 million signing bonus they gave Janovich last year. But credit Elway for having the flexibility to not try to force the run-dominated fullback spot into a more pass-happy offense.

Perhaps now, the Broncos can use some of that money on offensive players who are better-suited for the Shurmur system.

LAS VEGAS

CB ELI APPLE gets a fresh start in Vegas as GM Mike Mayock doesn’t see him as a rotten player.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

Once the No. 10 overall pick, cornerback Eli Apple is now venturing to his third team in as many seasons.

Apple has agreed to terms to join the Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported.

Oakland Tribune’s Jerry McDonald previously reported the news.

Apple, selected 10th by the Giants in 2016 out of Ohio State, was traded to the Saints in October of 2018 and started 15 games for the NFC South champions last season.

Raiders general manager Mike Mayock is making moves aplenty in his second offseason as Apple joins news of the signings of linebacker Cory Littleton, safety Jeff Heath, quarterback Marcus Mariota, tight end Jason Witten and others.

In Apple, the Raiders get a veteran presence to shore up the defensive backfield who grades out as a solid defender against the run and a savvy vet against the pass.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers made an offer for the GOAT – but they don’t want any of the other offerings on the veteran market like CAM NEWTON, JAMEIS WINSTON or ANDY DALTON.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com on how they are clearing the decks for somone like JUSTIN HERBERT:

Out of the Tom Brady sweepstakes, the Los Angeles Chargers will plow forward with Tyrod Taylor as their presumptive starting quarterback.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that the Chargers are not expected to sign or trade for a veteran quarterback, per sources informed of the decision.

Instead of adding the likes of Jameis Winston in free agency or trading for Cam Newton or Andy Dalton, L.A. will trust Taylor to be their veteran signal-caller in 2020.

The news could signal the Chargers’ desire to draft a quarterback with the No. 6 overall pick or trade up to snag one. After the Cincinnati Bengals take presumptive top pick Joe Burrow No. 1 overall, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Oregon’s Justin Herbert could be among rookie signal-callers the Chargers could pursue.

Pairing Taylor with a young future quarterback could be a smart play for the Chargers.

Coach Anthony Lynn has consistently praised Taylor’s leadership and ability to run the offense. Taylor had his best seasons with Lynn in Buffalo. The 30-year-old quarterback’s mobility could mesh with the type of run-first offense L.A. seeks to employ in 2020 after trading for guard Trai Turner and signing free agent right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

After 14 years with pocket quarterback Phillip Rivers running the Chargers’ show, the Los Angeles offense sets off in a new direction. The plan starts with Taylor. The next phase could be determined in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

The DB could see the Chargers jumping the Dolphins by making a deal with the Lions at #3 – unless the Dolphins did so themselves.

That said, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com has other sources that are saying something different:

 The Panthers want to trade Cam Newton. They’ve yet to find a partner. Given the challenges associated with having team doctors conduct a proper physical in advance of any trade, the Panthers ultimately may have to cut Newton.

And if/when they do, the Chargers may be waiting.

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Chargers currently are debating whether to pursue Newton. A trade remains unlikely given the inability of team doctors to give him a physical. But the Chargers could pursue Newton, if/when he’s released.

The Bears had been linked to Newton, but they’ve traded for Nick Foles. That leaves few seats for Newton.

If not the Chargers, why not the Patriots? Newton has a 2-0 record against Bill Belichick, and he could be an intriguing option to succeed Tom Brady — if healthy.

The Chargers pursued Tom Brady, who chose the Buccaneers. The presumptive starter in L.A. continues to be Tyrod Taylor. If the Chargers don’t acquire a veteran quarterback in free agency or via the trade market, they could draft one.

Newton makes a ton of sense for the Chargers, for both football reasons and business reasons. He’d give the team the boost it needs in the L.A. market, and could help the Chargers becomes much more competitive than they were last year.

The Chargers did some other things on Wednesday that leads Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com to say they won the first day of free agency:

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

Some may have expected the Chargers to show up in the loss column today because of their reported decision to roll with Tyrod Taylor in 2020 instead of making a move for Winston or Newton after losing the Tom Brady sweepstakes. I don’t necessarily think that’s a horrible decision, but they show up in the win column because of the work they did on the defensive side of the ball. They agreed to terms with two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Linval Joseph, who is one of the best interior defensive lineman in the NFL, and then stole cornerback Chris Harris Jr. away from the rival Denver Broncos. Harris has been one of the league’s most successful nickelbacks in recent years, and now has the opportunity to aid a talented group in Los Angeles. The Chargers were already stocked with Derwin James, Desmond King, Casey Hayward and last year’s second-round selection, Nasir Adderley. Injuries derailed the Chargers’ 2019 campaign. If they can stay healthy, they may just surprise some people in 2020.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com approves of what Cleveland has done so far:

Cleveland Browns

The Browns are ubiquitous members of every offseason winners list. One of these years, it will make them winners during the season, as well.

Is this the year? All we can say now is that each of their moves this week was as close to an objective upgrade as any they could have executed. No one would turn down the addition of Jack Conklin at right tackle if the other options were Chris Hubbard or Greg Robinson. It would be hard to argue that new tight end Austin Hooper doesn’t bring the Browns a new dimension. And if quarterback Baker Mayfield were injured, new backup Case Keenum would give the Browns a decent chance to stay afloat.

The two biggest questions facing the Browns weren’t fixable through free agency. We still can’t know whether coach Kevin Stefanski can improve the team’s on-field discipline. And for all the talk about Cleveland’s offensive line, we won’t find out for a while whether Mayfield can improve his decision-making and recognition.

But there is no doubt the Browns have a better talent at the right positions after this negotiation period.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Did WR De’ANDRE HOPKINS act up and therefore Coach/GM Bill O’Brien felt compelled to ship him to Arizona for a pittance?  Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle:

Hall of Fame receiver Michael Irvin says he talked to DeAndre Hopkins on Tuesday about being traded away from Houston, and he had quite a story to tell.

Irvin joined Mike Greenberg and Marcus Spears on ESPN’s “Get Up” on Wednesday morning to discuss that phone call with Hopkins, who was traded from the Texans to the Arizona Cardinals for running back David Johnson and some draft picks.

 “(Hopkins) told me, Michael, it was a bit of a power struggle there because Coach O’Brien thought he had too much influence over the locker room,” Irvin said.

Irvin says the relationship between Hopkins and Texans coach Bill O’Brien fell apart after a meeting in which O’Brien brought up the name Aaron Hernandez, who played under O’Brien in New England and was later convicted of murder.

“In that meeting, he started the meeting with telling DeAndre Hopkins this, which blew my mind when DeAndre told me this, he told DeAndre Hopkins, he said, ‘Hey, the last time I had to have a meeting like this it was with Aaron Hernandez,’” Irvin said. “I was like, ‘What? He put in Aaron Hernandez in this meeting?’ He said, ‘Yes, he did.’ He said, ‘Michael, that blew my mind that he would even bring that up. I’ve never been in any trouble. I don’t know why he would equate me with Aaron Hernandez.’ And, from there, the meeting just deteriorated.”

According to Irvin, O’Brien also brought up that he didn’t like Hopkins having the women of his children around.

“He told DeAndre that he doesn’t like that he has his baby mommas around sometimes,” Irvin said. “And, I think from there, the relationship just went bad.”

Hopkins tries to do damage control (and we would say most of the damage was suffered by O’Brien). ESPN.com

DeAndre Hopkins took to social media Wednesday to deny Michael Irvin’s comments that a fractured relationship with Houston Texans coach Bill O’Brien led to Hopkins’ trade to the Arizona Cardinals on Monday.

Hopkins responded to the comments later Wednesday on Twitter.

“This is being blown way out of proportion,” Hopkins tweeted. “As I’ve said before, I enjoyed and am proud of my time with the Texans. I have the utmost respect for Coach O’Brien and that will not change. Now, I’m ready to play for the Cardinals.”

Sources told ESPN on Wednesday that the issues with Hopkins and the team were related to the player’s contract and that the relationship between the franchise receiver and O’Brien, who is also the Texans’ general manager and is now in charge of contracts, was not good.

Hopkins’ representatives had told the Texans weeks before the trade that Hopkins wanted a new deal paying him somewhere between $18 million and $20 million per year, sources told ESPN’s Dianna Russini. The team was told he would not show if he didn’t get the deal, the sources said, so the Texans moved forward with the trade.

As for the remarks Irvin made about Hopkins’ “baby mamas,” sources told Russini that was not an issue.

Hopkins two years left on a five-year deal he signed in 2017, said to be worth $16 mil per year, but with only salaries of $13.5 and $13.9 mil remaining.  There was a $7.5 mil signing bonus back in ’17.

JACKSONVILLE

Even after QB NICK FOLES was traded, the DB hasn’t heard the Jaguars mentioned as a possible landing spot for people like QB CAM NEWTON, QB JAMEIS WINSTON and QB ANDY DALTON.  But we really don’t think they will go into battle with only QB GARDNER MINSHEW…

But looking at the present, Jordan Dejani of CBSSports.com presumes that Minshew will have the starting spot all to himself.

Winner: Gardner Minshew

We didn’t even get a chance to reach the new league year before the Jaguars named Minshew the winner of their quarterback battle. On Wednesday, the Jaguars sent quarterback Nick Foles to the Bears in exchange for a fourth-round draft selection — No. 140 overall. Foles parlayed a Super Bowl run with the Eagles into a lucrative contract offer in Jacksonville last offseason — a deal worth $88 million over four years. After suffering an injury in the season opener, he essentially lost his starting job to Minshew. Foles was named the starter when he returned to the field, but eventually lost that right in three weeks. The Jaguars paid $30.5 million for four starts from Foles, according to NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero. He won none of those games and now leaves behind an $18.75 million dead cap hit. A load has been lifted from Minshew’s shoulders, and he can now prepare for the 2020 season knowing that he’s the starter.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com is not enamored with the Patriots free agent moves:

How many times do we have to say it? You. Can’t. Replicate. The. Patriots. Both the Dolphins and Lions doubled down on that fantasy this week, with dispiriting results.

The Dolphins, coached by former Patriots assistant Brian Flores, guaranteed linebacker Kyle Van Noy $30 million and also signed linebacker/fullback Elandon Roberts. They also committed $57 million in guarantees to cornerback Byron Jones, who will play alongside veteran Xavien Howard ($46 million). The team now leads the NFL in salary cap tied to the cornerback position, possibly because Flores wants to play Patriots-style man-to-man defense. Even last season, the Dolphins ranked No. 4 in the NFL by using man coverage 61% of the time, according to ESPN metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats data.

– – –

This isn’t so much a comment on the players themselves, but on the cockeyed and still unproven idea that there is some kind of magic sauce that comes with someone who has been in the Patriots’ program. Why can’t we just acknowledge that Patriots coach Bill Belichick has built a unique set of circumstances that routinely maximizes players in ways that aren’t likely to be replicated elsewhere? As a matter of team-building, giving an edge to people with a Patriots connection probably could cloud out more qualified candidates. Just stop it!

NEW ENGLAND

Doug Kezarian of ESPN.com on the end of the gold mine for bettors that was Belichick-Brady:

With the news that Tom Brady is expected to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, one of the great sports dynasties has come to an end. When most fans think of the Brady-Bill Belichick era, the six Super Bowl titles and 17 AFC East titles (including 11 straight) come to mind. But for bettors, the New England Patriots have been the surest bet you could make over the past two decades.

Brady and Belichick were the greatest NFL betting dynasty I’ve ever seen — and we will never see anything close in sports betting.

A defining moment

For me, everything about betting a Patriots game crystallized in 2009.

With a six-point lead and trying to seal a win against Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts, Belichick chose to go for a fourth-and-2 on his own 28-yard line with 2:08 remaining rather than punt. Adding suspense, the Patriots called their final timeout and allowed the football world to process this unconventional decision.

I was living in Las Vegas at the time and witnessed the live betting market shift drastically toward New England. Sharp bettors supported the decision; it was more advantageous to control the outcome with Brady needing 2 yards than to give another future Hall of Fame quarterback an opportunity to score a third touchdown in that fourth quarter against a defense that looked gassed.

Following a failed conversion and Manning’s subsequent game-winning touchdown pass, Belichick drew heavy criticism. But I was convinced he was eons ahead of his contemporaries and demonstrated a shared belief — uncovered from a vast history of video games — that possession mattered more than field position.

At that very moment, I barred myself from betting against New England. I realized there are smarter things to do with my income than lay -110 against Brady and Belichick. My new mantra: “Patriots or pass,” and I only deviated a few times over the next decade.

A sports betting dynasty, by the numbers

Perhaps it’s easiest to demonstrate just how dominant New England has been in the sports betting world by listing some numbers from ESPN Stats & Information:

• The last time the Patriots experienced a losing regular season against the point spread was in 2002; that streak of 17 is more than twice as long as any other franchise’s longest streak in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).

• The Patriots were 189-128-7 ATS with Brady starting and Belichick have the second-best point spread cover percentage (59.6%) of any quarterback and head coach combination (minimum 80 games).

• In those games, they were favored by an average line of 5.8 points (fourth-shortest mark as favorite by any QB in the Super Bowl era with at least 100 starts).

• Off a regular-season loss, Brady and Belichick were 42-19 ATS (68.9%), which ranks third-best (minimum of 30 games).

• Brady and Belichick never lost four straight games ATS in a single regular season.

• Brady has been favored in 74 consecutive regular-season starts, the longest streak by any starting QB in the Super Bowl era.

A conundrum for sportsbooks

Much like facing a blizzard, bookmakers were essentially helpless when weathering these New England storms.

“You have to trust the market, and if the public is blasting away, you just have to take your lumps,” Caesars Sportsbook director of trading Jeff Davis told ESPN, explaining his preferred policy of not succumbing to the high volume of recreational bettors. Davis said that sometimes over 90% of bets on a Patriots game were on New England and would occasionally represent the sportsbook’s largest single-game loss for an entire calendar year. New England playing in prime-time games (Thursday, Sunday, Monday nights) had the potential to cost books even more.

Usually, sportsbooks already tax the high-profile teams, and thus the market will eventually correct itself. For example, the Golden State Warriors finished with a sub-.500 cover mark in all three of Kevin Durant’s seasons. Over the past eight years, Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide have finished more than a game above .500 ATS in only one season. But the betting public relentlessly backed the Patriots under almost all circumstances and still beat an inflated line (New England was a 5.8-point favorite on average with Brady-Belichick) at a successful rate.

“The oddsmakers catch up so fast on good teams,” Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons told ESPN. “That’s what makes the Patriots so remarkable. They’ve been a public team for 16 years.”

Statistically, Brady and Belichick have the second-best point spread cover percentage (58%) of any quarterback and head coach combination (min. 80 games). Only Brady’s idol, Joe Montana, and Bill Walsh from 1979 to ’88 are superior (77-48 ATS). But like any sports discussion, we have to account for longevity and eras, and the NFL betting market is much stronger and tighter during this window than any other period — or sport, for that matter.

“Back then [with Montana and Walsh], maybe two or three betting groups would influence the market,” Salmons said. “There are just way more smart people that are shaping these numbers than ever before.”

Alluding to the lack of pre-internet sophistication and tools oddsmakers currently use to track everything in the betting world, Davis added, “There is a lot more information out there. The [computer] screen probably didn’t even exist then.”

Coincidentally, New England’s impressive run overlapped with the sportsbooks’ “Moneyball” revolution. In the early 2000s, math modelers and data scientists began to join old-school handicappers who relied on the eye test and their instincts. The result was a betting world that would reduce profitable opportunities and strengthen the house’s advantage, as oddsmakers used technology and resources to lean on wagers placed by respected players they classified as “sharp.”

“A lot of the analytics and data are out there to set the line to begin with, but the people are then shaping them. The amount of money that pours into the NFL and shapes the closing number is more than any other league,” said professional bettor and ESPN sports betting analyst Preston Johnson. “Also, usually the NFL doesn’t have much turnover. New seasons don’t present much difference, so they just have all this data year over year that holds true.”

“I would put them ahead of anything in the [sports betting world] just because they did it for so long in the toughest times,” Salmons told ESPN. “These lines come out on Sunday afternoon and [the betting action solidifies the point spreads] into place for eight straight days.”

Brady and Belichick combined for six Super Bowl titles over 20 seasons, and those championship rings will always be mentioned first when discussing all-time athletes or coaches. The overwhelming wins, longevity and statistics will also carry weight. But if the point spread is the great equalizer, especially in the salary-cap era, then it’s hard to argue against this duo that constantly baffled the betting market.

“If you had any sort of projections you trusted, they would always say to bet against [New England]. But the Patriots would cover anyway, so it was frustrating,” Johnson said of his modeling. “I know professional bettors who ultimately stopped betting against the Patriots altogether because, what’s the point? Obviously, there was something with the way they’re coaching or whatever that there’s enough of a sample size that it’s reliable. Even though I can’t figure out what it is, I can still trust there’s something there and stay away.”

It’s not just sports talk shows and Patriots fans debating the next chapter. Bettors are assessing whether Brady will continue the monetary magic elsewhere or whether Belichick will merely substitute a new quarterback to continue churning out covers. But at the end of the day, nothing will ever match this rare combination of a coach’s wizardry and compulsive attention to detail with a quarterback’s skill set and competitiveness that rewarded backers for so many years and set gambling’s gold standard.

The DB calculates that if you bet $50 on every Patriots game, you would have $9,450 in winnings (189 x $50), $6,985 in losses (127 x $55 with vig) for a net profit of $2,465.

Double that for a $100 bet.

So a $1,000 bet for every game would be plus $49,300.

Still, over 20 years, that would only be $2,465 per year.