The Daily Briefing Thursday, March 30, 2023

GREEN BAY

ESPN’s Insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano offer what they are hearing about the long delayed trade:

From the Biltmore grounds, brass from the Packers and Jets weighed in on Aaron Rodgers trade watch, and neither side painted a clear picture for when or how this deal will go down. One source with knowledge of the situation told me this: Neither side appears to be in a major rush, because of the lull in real football activity before the draft, but both sides would like to get this done sooner than later (on their own terms).

The source believes that “much of this [deal] remains done” thanks to weeks of legwork. Early on, the Jets wanted to address the financial component (Rodgers’ $58.3 million option payment due between now and Week 1), and the belief is that both sides have worked on that part. The feeling around the league is that multiple high picks, but not necessarily a first-rounder, might just be able to get it done. Yahoo Sports’ report that 2024 protections — a conditional pick if Rodgers were to retire after this coming season, for example — are a hang-up that makes a lot of sense, because execs I spoke to early in the process believed that would be an issue for the Jets. Rodgers himself admitted on “The Pat McAfee Show” that he was leaning toward retirement at one point this offseason, before the famed darkness retreat.

Draft compensation appears more of an issue now than the financial component. But as a few people have pointed out, the Packers are trying to secure proper compensation for a Hall of Fame player while balancing the delicate relationship with that player, which takes time. — Fowler

I think anything that gets done post-trade between the Jets and Rodgers regarding his contract will be easy to figure out. The issue is the compensation package going Green Bay’s way from the Jets. After talking to multiple sources in Phoenix, I do not believe the Packers are insisting on the Jets’ first-round pick (No. 13 overall), and I think that the high second-round pick they got from Cleveland in the Elijah Moore trade could be a key to getting this done.

The Jets have expressed to the Packers throughout this process that their major concern was how long they’ll have Rodgers, and not wanting to overpay for a player who might only be there for one year. One of my sources acknowledged that the April 27 draft is a key date but also said they don’t expect it to take that long. I found literally no one on either side of this who believes it won’t happen. I am confident that Rodgers will be the Jets’ quarterback in 2023, and I feel strongly that a deal that doesn’t involve the Jets’ 2023 first-rounder will be finalized before this year’s draft. — Graziano

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic on why the Rams are focusing on “discipline” in 2023.

Rams head coach Sean McVay repeated the word several times early Tuesday morning, then several more: Discipline.

A mantra? A reminder?

Both.

The Rams — after a five-year all-out sprint to a Lombardi Trophy (and a second Super Bowl appearance in that span) and a personally and professionally disastrous 5-12 season in 2022 — are now taking on some financial and roster pain in order to clear the runway for what they’re calling a “more healthily-engineered cap” in 2024.

That has meant parting ways with prominent players, such as star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, future Hall of Fame inside linebacker Bobby Wagner, pass rusher Leonard Floyd, and watching a plethora of contributing players depart in free agency without much of a fight. It has meant accruing $52.7 million in dead cap, and clearing tens of millions of dollars in future cash even when cuts or trades don’t greatly impact their current cap room (they have about $11 million in space according to the NFL, and will need more than that to sign their draft picks and also account for a few million in roster churn throughout the season). It has meant getting their books ready for 2024 in one angst-ridden swoop. Yet when a reporter at the NFL annual meetings at the Biltmore Hotel and Spa asked general manager Les Snead and chief operating officer Kevin Demoff about their “quieter” offseason in 2023, both pushed back.

Snead sarcastically reacted to the idea that the Rams have been “boring,” quipping a few times about the word through the weekend of league meetings and adding that no, the Rams don’t generally go out and spend big in free agency (and they instead have made the splashy picks-for-players trades any time before or at the deadline, while also letting more players walk than those they acquire because of their dependency on the compensatory pick formula) — so what is different, really?

Writer’s note: Well, the ominous nature of the previous season and the necessity to get back on track quickly, to start …

“I agree with Les, I think this is the mode we’re normally in this time of year,” Demoff said. “We always lose more players than we gain. … That has really been at the heart of our model for the past few years … pretty standard for us. I think the difference this year has been normally there is a high-profile move of some sort via trade, or some maneuver, or we’ve signed players who have been cut who didn’t qualify in the comp formula that is accompanied the start of free agency. This year, we haven’t done that.

“Philosophically, it’s been where we’ve been at. … This year, it’s the model without a little bit of the ‘sizzle’ that has come outside of it. But I actually don’t feel that we’ve strayed too far from our core DNA under Sean and Les.”

The core leaders of the Rams have been together this entire time: Demoff, McVay, Snead and Tony Pastoors. They all felt the emotional lows of losing Super Bowl LIII to New England — an experience that sent McVay into the hell-bent mode of winning it all, at any cost, and the rest of them sprinting in stride with him. They all felt the emotional highs of winning it all in 2021 — an experience that led to its own unique post-party circumstances when they extended or restructured the deals of aging stars Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald.

All three are elite players, now with something to prove after all suffered various season-ending injuries in 2022. But they also command the bulk of the Rams’ finances. Whether truly serious or not, some in the Rams’ building did discuss whether they should tear the entire thing down after the Super Bowl (others argued that there is little proof in football where a multiyear rebuild is not required afterward; the Rams don’t believe their current model will take that much time before they are contenders again). Were those three deals emotional, hasty, borne of the rush of a Super Bowl victory and the idea that their “window” could stretch at least one more year?

“For the most part, I don’t regret any of the decisions that we made with the players who were on the 2021 roster, and how that all played out,” Demoff said.

“A credit to all three of those guys, when we did their deals we said, ‘you’re doing it in ’22 but you’re looking towards ’23 and ’24,’” Pastoors added. “And they were all great to work with on that. They understood the structure.”

It should be noted, however, that keeping the core three players intact (in part because the Rams have committed to their salaries, but also because the players have committed to the team) means it’s impossible to “blow the whole thing up.” So does McVay returning after mulling a break from coaching throughout the 2022 season. It also means these executives and this head coach are apparently damn serious when they say they will be better than many think they can be in 2023.

“I really believe in this team, this year, with what we have (and) with what we’re going to have,” Demoff said. “I fully expect this team to be a playoff team. … Obviously, we’ll see how it plays out. … Everybody here believes in this team’s capability to have a run this year. That, to us, I don’t think you’ll ever see this team comprised certainly of Sean, Les, myself believe that we’re going into a year where we’re not capable of making the playoffs (and) not making a run.”

Added McVay, “(We have to) figure out how we can remain as competitive as possible, put together the most competitive roster … and then let’s just go see what happens? You reflect on the previous six years, sometimes the best thing you can do is reset the deck, have a healthy perspective, focus on the things you can control. I think often about (how) in ’17, I didn’t know any better than to worry about some of the stuff that I worry about now. That was the right approach, the right perspective.”

It means those three players, referred to by Snead as “weight-bearing walls,” will have to be a rising tide for a very young incoming group. More discipline — in retooling a scheme that buoys others, in those players remaining healthy, in the coaching and development of the rest of the roster which has to do enough so the three veteran stars don’t have to do it all.

“There has been a lot of hand-wringing on defense because essentially we’re down to a couple of starters,” Demoff said. “But Aaron Donald lifts everybody else up and has always been that core piece. On offense, you have the chance to return a lot of your group from last year. Now, significant changes from a coaching perspective and hopefully we can have that health as well.”

Snead noted Monday that when the Rams believe it’s time to be aggressive again, they will be.

“When we do get to a moment where we think, ‘OK, let’s press the gas again,’ you have the capability to do it,” he said.

Could that be as early as 2024? Some internally believe so; the Rams will have anywhere between $55 million and $65 million in cap space and a full load of picks, including their first first-rounder since 2016. Some believe it could even be quicker than that: What if the right move comes along for their quarterback, their No. 1 receiver or for the best player in football (who also happens to have a no-trade clause)? To be clear, the executives who spoke this week also indicated that those three players could also be “Rams for life.” Or, what if their head coach wins more games than expected, just like he did back in 2017? What if he wins less?

If it’s the latter, the self-admittedly impulsive McVay now openly repeats: Discipline, without the emotion that can also skew decision-making. Gratitude for the process. He’s on a journey too, don’t forget it.

“How can we have the wisdom and the discipline to be able to focus on the things that we can control, and apply it the right way?” McVay asked. “You don’t take things for granted, that maybe I had (for) the previous five years. I’m really looking forward to applying it in the right way.”

Added Snead — about his head coach, but also about his team — “Everyone is evolving, everyone is a tree. The tree grows up.

“I mentioned many times last year: We have to go through this. … You can’t microwave wisdom.”

BALTIMORE

Today’s update on the situation with QB LAMAR JACKSON comes from Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:

By now, it’s becoming clear that no NFL team is aggressively pursuing Lamar Jackson or preparing an offer sheet at the moment. That can change at any point, but so far, there’s simply not much momentum. Jackson is clearly frustrated. Baltimore isn’t pressing the issue. The Ravens don’t need to do much until another team makes an offer, and I don’t get the sense that the Ravens are aggressively negotiating on a deal for Jackson right now. Collusion will remain a trending topic as more QB-needy teams rule themselves out of the Jackson sweepstakes.

After asking some executives why they think the market is dry, the first reason usually given is that Baltimore would simply match any offer sheet, and thus the prospective team would do the legwork for the Ravens. Now, a sign-and-trade scenario would circumvent that process, especially if Baltimore feels like the QB-team relationship has reached a boiling point. But Baltimore’s desire to keep Jackson is a common refrain among teams. Then there’s the guaranteed money, the multiple first-round picks required to secure a deal and his durability concerns.

It’s important to emphasize that it’s very early. The draft can serve as an inflection point, especially if teams strike out on securing a long-term quarterback prospect in the early rounds. Maybe that won’t matter to teams such as the Patriots and Colts, who are sending messages that the hefty price tag is a non-starter. But the franchise tag deadline to reach a long-term deal is July 17. Plenty of time.

Still, this has a chance to get uglier. Don’t expect Jackson to sign the tag any time soon. From everything I’ve heard, Jackson is principled on this — it’s not just a matter of securing as many millions as possible, but setting the proper market commensurate with his skill set, thus helping future players in his situation. That might not be possible right now due to the circumstances, and Baltimore seems to know it. — Fowler

I had heard some chatter that Jackson was thinking about dropping in on the meetings, as Odell Beckham Jr. did briefly Tuesday, but he did not show up. Too bad. That would have ratcheted up the excitement on this a good bit! The sense I get is that, while the Ravens believe there is a path to reconciliation and hope to have Jackson as their QB in 2023 (and beyond), they would listen if a team such as the Colts called and wanted to talk about what it would take to get a deal done.

The draft is a big date here as well, since the Ravens would need whatever picks they got back for Jackson to help them find their next quarterback. But again, they hope it doesn’t come to that. Some outside observers I’ve spoken to have suggested that the path to a Ravens/Jackson reunion is a shorter-term deal with heavy guarantees, like the three-year, $150 million one Rodgers signed with the Packers last offseason.

But the issue so far in contract talks, I am told, is that Jackson is insisting on getting more fully guaranteed money than the $230 million Deshaun Watson got in his deal with the Browns. After my conversations in Phoenix, I no longer believe Jackson was insisting that his deal be fully guaranteed — just that the guaranteed portion of it be larger than Watson’s. But I also get the sense from my sources that Jackson is irked by some of the Ravens’ negotiating tactics, including some of the specific language in their offers last year, and that he’s eager to see what other teams have to offer. It’s entirely possible there’s a deal out there that he would accept from another team that he wouldn’t accept if the Ravens offered it right now.

Of course, Baltimore holds the cards because of the franchise tag and could, in the end, match any offer sheet or refuse to trade him. One thing we can say for sure at this point, after listening to the way other teams talked about Jackson at the meetings, is that the Ravens seem to be the team that wants him the most, for whatever that’s worth. — Graziano

CINCINNATI

Coach Zac Taylor says the Bengals and QB JOE BURROW are talking about his extension.  Kelsey Conway of the Cincinnati Enquirer:

When the 2022 season concluded, the Bengals shifted to the biggest focus of the offseason – a new contract for Burrow.

At the NFL combine, Bengals director of personnel Duke Tobin said the deal was not done yet. Taylor offered a similar sentiment on Monday and reiterated while he’s involved, this isn’t something that he controls.

“I know that they’ve started and we’ll see where they go,” Taylor said. “I don’t know what the timeline is gonna be, but not my job, fortunately.”

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws in the first quarter during an NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Burrow is expected to land a mega-deal at some point this offseason. A contract extension of this magnitude requires a lot of moving pieces. Burrow’s agent and Cincinnati’s front office have started the negotiation process but aren’t there yet on the final decision.

It’s unclear at the moment what Burrow is looking for in this next contract. Bengals owner Mike Brown hinted he liked the way the Chiefs structured Patrick Mahomes’ deal in the number of years the contract extends over. Mahomes signed a 10-year deal worth $450 million in 2020, giving him an average annual value of $45 million.

It’s one thing for the Bengals to say they want to model this new deal in a similar way, but it’s not a one-sided process. Burrow and his agent have to agree to it.

Burrow is currently making $9 million heading into the fourth season of his rookie deal. It’s likely he will be the highest-paid quarterback when his new deal is done.

If the contract extension doesn’t happen before the NFL draft at the end of April, expect it to happen before or during training camp. Deadlines spur action in these scenarios and although there’s no deadline, per se, for this deal to get done before the season, it’s highly unlikely Burrow enters Week 1 without a new deal. The NFL deadline to have guaranteed money deposited for players is March 30. A deal happening after that date would push the guaranteed money to next year.

Taylor doesn’t foresee Burrow’s negotiations delaying other new deals for key players.

Wide receiver Tee Higgins and linebacker Logan Wilson are eligible for extensions before the upcoming season.

“I think we’ve got a lot of guys that want to be here and they like what we’re all about,” Taylor said. “So it’s impossible for me to speak for those guys but I just know what I see in the building is a bunch of guys that like being around each other and that like being Cincinnati Bengals and that excites me.”

The Bengals have made a key signing to bolster Burrow – if TE IRV SMITH, Jr. can stay healthy.  CincyJungle.com:

Irv Smith Jr., the new tight end the Cincinnati Bengals acquired in free agency Monday night, had options when it came to which team he wanted to play for in 2023.

In fact, he had to choose between the Bengals and a reunion with his college quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, now with the Miami Dolphins. The two played together with the Alabama Crimson Tide and also handed Burrow one of his few blowout losses in a 29-0 rout in 2018. Smith Jr. caught four passes for 64 yards and a touchdown in that game.

Now, according to Bengals.com’s Geoff Hobson, the tight end believes his best chance to win is with Joe Burrow.

“I felt like Cincinnati had the best chance to win a Super Bowl,” he said. “It’s a great organization. Great coaching staff. Zac Taylor was very adamant about me coming to the team knowing what I can do to help the offense. And the proof is in the pudding at the tight end position.”

Smith Jr. was able to get in touch with his new quarterback on Tuesday morning and said Burrow was excited to have him on the team and that he would love the culture and not to be afraid to reach out.

Smith Jr. also got advice from his father, Irv Smith Sr., who played in 95 NFL games at the same position, catching 183 passes for 1788 and 15 touchdowns.

“When it came down to picking a team, he was all Cincinnati,” Smith Jr. said. “Just in terms of what we can do with my skill set in that offense that is already so explosive with the weapons and Coach Callahan and Zac Taylor and what they’ve done, the proof is in the pudding.”

Smith Jr. also had a previous relationship with another Bengals player, the team’s top wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase. The two played against each other in the New Orleans’ Catholic League and later worked out together in the offseason.

“Having a relationship with Ja’Marr, getting to play with Joe Burrow and those guys speaks for itself,” Smith Jr. said. “I’ve watched a lot of Bengals games over the years. I wanted to be a part of this opportunity to chase a ring and be a part of something special. I feel like I’m almost the missing piece to get us that Super Bowl.”

NEW YORK JETS

Speaking of draughts – we can’t remember the words “Sacramento Kings” every appearing in 18 years of Daily Briefings.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Sacramento Kings clinched an NBA playoff berth for the first time in 16 years on Wednesday night, and that gave the Jets a dubious distinction.

The Jets now have the longest playoff drought among any NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL team.

The last time the Jets made the playoffs was in 2010, when head coach Rex Ryan, quarterback Mark Sanchez and cornerback Darrelle Revis led them to an 11-5 record, good for second in the NFC East. The Jets made it to the AFC Championship Game that year, losing to the Steelers.

Since that season, the Jets have missed the playoffs 12 times in 12 years, and they’ve finished last in the AFC East in six of the last seven seasons.

The Jets may soon have company, as the Buffalo Sabres have missed the NHL playoffs 11 years in a row and are in danger of missing it this season as well. After the Jets and the Sabres, it’s a six-way tie for the third-longest playoff drought among teams that have missed the playoffs seven years in a row: The Broncos, NBA’s Charlotte Hornets and MLB’s Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers.

Jets owner Woody Johnson said this week that he’s not patient and the Jets have to win now. It’s been a long time.

THIS AND THAT

BROADCAST NEWS

Mike Florio is not optimistic that even the most powerful owners can stop The Commish from doing a big favor to Amazon.

What the Commissioner wants, the Commissioner gets. And it won’t take much more arm twisting for him to get Thursday night flexing.

It was clear from Roger Goodell’s comments to reporters on Tuesday that he wants to have the ability to move late-season Thursday games to Sunday, and in turn to move a Sunday game to Thursday. It’s also clear from the unofficial vote numbers that Goodell doesn’t have to twist many more arms to get to the magic number of 24.

Via Albert Breer of SI.com, 22 owners favored Thursday night flexing, eight opposed it, and two abstained. No official vote was taken, because the official vote would have failed.

With the item tabled until May, Goodell needs to come up with only two more “yes” votes from the eight “nays” and the two who passed to get what he wants.

He shouldn’t waste his time trying to persuade Giants co-owner John Mara to change his mind. Mara calls the measure “abusive” to season-ticket holders. And he’s right.

But money talks. The tickets to the games will be sold. If a given fan can’t make it to a rescheduled game, the fan can re-sell his or her tickets to someone else. The league doesn’t care, or it wouldn’t be trying to secure the ability to move games by three days.

Goodell eventually will get his way. Even without flexing, he now has the ability to load up the schedule with the most desirable teams having a pair of Sunday-Thursday turnarounds in a given season. Look for this year’s schedule to include Thursday night games in Week 14 through 17 that are more likely to hold their relevance than other potential choices.

And look for Goodell to get two of the 10 holdouts to join the 22 and to give the league the power to tinker with the Thursday night schedule in December, in-stadium customers be damned. Or abused. Or both.

– – –

Unless a team desirous of the spotlight steps forward, the NFL can compel four teams to submit to the HBO camera crews.  The Bears have been quick to make it known they want nothing to do with the extra exposure.  Brian Fonseca of NJ.com:

It is looking increasingly likely that “Hard Knocks” is headed to Florham Park this fall.

The Jets are one of four teams eligible to be chosen for the behind-the-scenes show on HBO that follows one NFL team throughout the season, beginning in training camp, along with the Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints and Washington Commanders.

Given everything going on with the Jets this offseason — namely the possibility of adding future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a trade with the Green Bay Packers and signing free agent wide receiver and former Giants star Odell Beckham — they will be the most compelling choice of the bunch. And they got a big boost in their candidacy when one team openly said they do not want to partake.

Bears chairman George McCaskey was asked if the organization would like to be on “Hard Knocks” during his meeting with the media at the NFL league meeting in Phoenix on Tuesday.

“There are a number of teams that have compelling stories to tell on Hard Knocks,” he said, before noting that the Bears are not among that group. “31 others.”

Jets owner Woody Johnson, on the other hand, did not shoot down the possibility of HBO passing by 1 Jets Drive.

“Whether we do it this year, I think we’d have to take a hard look.”

The Bears have never been on Hard Knocks, which debuted in 2001.

The Jets last participated in Hard Knocks during the 2010 NFL season. They currently hold the longest NFL Playoff appearance drought in the league at 12 years. Certainly makes for a compelling story.

He goes on to right, that giving in to The Commish and Amazon will be a sign of the impending apocalypse:

Mark Cuban may have been right all along.

Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.

That’s what the billionaire and NBA owner said about the NFL, nearly nine years ago to the day.

“I think the NFL is 10 years away from an implosion,” Cuban said on March 23, 2014. “I’m just telling you, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. And they’re getting hoggy. Just watch. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. When you try to take it too far, people turn the other way.”

I dismissed Cuban’s warning at the time. He’s just jealous that the NFL has permanently eclipsed the NBA, I thought. The NFL is too big to ever get slaughtered, I believed. It’s far too popular to implode, I reasoned.

And while my initial reaction still may be right, the NFL is standing at a Rubicon that could eventually lead to the slaughterhouse.

The dramatic acceleration of the league office’s willingness to push owners to permit flexing of late-season Thursday night games makes it hard not to conclude that the NFL’s North Star is the Big Mamoo.

That’s hardly a revelation. We’ve known for decades that the NFL is a for-profit endeavor. That it’s all about making as much money as possible. That football is business but they say “football is family” because it’s good for business to say “football is family.”

This one feels like a bridge too far. The league’s desperation to boost the Amazon streaming experiment by replacing potentially bad late-season Thursday night games with better games from the following Sunday shows no regard for players who will have not one but two short-week games in a given season, no regard for team employees who must alter flight and travel arrangements on the fly, and — perhaps most importantly — no regard for fans who may have long-settled travel plans for either the Thursday night game that gets moved to Sunday, or the Sunday game that gets moved to Thursday night.

The Thursday night flexing, if adopted, would potentially apply in Weeks 14 through 17. In 2023, it will cover eight different dates in the period of December 8 through December 31.

What if a group of fans decides as a holiday excursion to fly to Las Vegas for a late-season Raiders game, set for a Sunday afternoon? What if, as the season goes along, it becomes clear that this will be a pretty good game? What if the NFL and/or Amazon decide the Thursday night game for that week is not good? What if the Raiders game is then picked to move to Thursday, two weeks before kickoff?

Yes, tickets can be resold. Yes, airline tickets can be refunded (or at least swapped for credit that the fans may not use before the credit expires). And, yes, hotel reservations can be canceled. But the experience is gone, and it’s not coming back.

The NFL, if it adopts Thursday night flexing, doesn’t care about this obvious potential inconvenience to fans who attend games. The NFL is prioritizing the entertainment of those who watch on TV (or not TV), in order to generate bigger ratings for the nascent pivot to streaming.

Who knows what the next wave of TV deals will entail? ABC, CBS, Fox, and/or NBC could be replaced by Amazon, YouTube, and/or Netflix. The better Thursday Night Football does on Amazon, the more the NFL will be able to squeeze out of its partners when the next set of deals is negotiated.

That’s what it’s all about. Boosting ratings for this new age of viewing platforms, in order to justify charging higher prices for those companies.

And that’s fine. The purpose of this item isn’t to persuade nine owners to vote against Thursday night flexing. They’re most likely going to do it, if they can engineer a path around the NFL Players Association.

So get ready. And don’t forget.

Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.

Football is family.

Sorry if your family has to scramble to change plans or dump tickets for that game you’ve been waiting for months to attend.

2023 DRAFT

QB WILL LEVIS could have an AARON RODGERS-like first round fall for Aaron Rodgers-like reasons.  The Spun:

We’re four weeks away from the 2023 NFL Draft and many top prospects have been doing their interview tours as they vie for a spot on the big stage on the first big night. But one top quarterback is allegedly “bombing” his recent interviews.

According to NFL Draft analyst Chad Forbes, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis is struggling to make a good impression on his interviews for a variety of reasons.

One source he quoted said Levis suffered from “arrogance” and “entitlement,” while another admonished him for being older than other top prospects yet still appearing to be behind them. A third apparently questioned why Levis couldn’t beat Sean Clifford for the starting job at Penn State before he transferred to Kentucky.

If you were to ask Will Levis himself – as we did – he’d say that the interviews went pretty well. In a recent Q&A with The Spun, Levis made it clear that none of the team’s he’s met with have given the impression that they were against drafting him.

“I must’ve done something pretty bad if I get told that up front,” Levis said earlier this month.

But you never know when it comes to quarterback evaluations. The last four NFL MVPs – Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady – all fell for various reasons on Draft Day.

If Levis has the skills to pay the bills, he’ll be able to prove it on the football field. No interview can tell you with any certainty what happens when the pads are on.

– – –

Diante Lee and Matt Tice of The Athletic offer this Mock Draft with the Texans passing on QB BRYCE YOUNG at number 2:

But in our latest mock draft, experts Diante Lee (selecting on the even-numbered draft slots) and Nate Tice (on the odds) eschewed trades as they made their first-round selections for each team (minus the Browns, Dolphins, Rams and 49ers, who don’t have a first-round pick). We’re not sure how things will play out that Thursday evening, but it might look something like this:

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

The Panthers lit the fuse for the draft cycle, making a deal with the Bears and moving up to pole position. And after sending their contingent of decision-makers to Ohio State’s pro day, Carolina tabs Stroud as their quarterback of the future.

Stroud rapidly improved in his two years as a starter and is a polished and accurate passer with underrated arm strength and athleticism. He should be able to start early, and he slides into a favorable situation behind a strong offensive line and a talented defense that should help carry the load every week. The Panthers may have traded away a No. 1 target in D.J. Moore, but they signed tight end Hayden Hurst and wide receivers Adam Thielen and DJ Chark to surround their young quarterback with solid weapons and help him hit the ground running. — Nate Tice

2. Houston Texans: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

What does Houston ideally want with the second pick? I’d venture to guess that Nick Caserio would prefer to trade it to a team that is after a quarterback (maybe Las Vegas?) and take the additional draft capital while still getting one of the class’s top passers. Under these parameters, though, the best thing to do is take Richardson, a quarterback they can take their time with as they build out the rest of the roster.

The hope for Richardson is that his trajectory compares to that of Jalen Hurts, a quarterback who may still have some warts in his mechanics and accuracy but has developed a viable enough skill set to be the engine of an efficient offense. Davis Mills isn’t anyone’s idea of a long-term option, but he’s the right kind of young quarterback to take the rebuilding lumps you’d rather your prized franchise QB avoid. While DeMeco Ryans and his staff build this offense in Kyle Shanahan’s image, Richardson can wait in the wings. — Diante Lee

3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama

The Cardinals stand to benefit from a QB-centric top of the draft and nab the talented and productive Anderson. Anderson is a versatile player who affects both the run and pass. He is deceptively strong, is dynamic as a penetrator on the defensive line and can bend and turn sharp angles.

Anderson racked up tackles for losses and sacks in college, but he should align farther outside in the NFL as a nine-technique instead of the 4i (inside shade of the offensive tackle) that he was often asked to do at Alabama. That would take advantage of his athleticism, strong hands and get-off even more. We aren’t including any trades in this exercise, but new Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort also could be looking to move down and trade with a QB-needy team. — Tice

4. Indianapolis Colts: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

I wonder if the fans in Indianapolis would feel squeamish about going all in on a player of Young’s size to be their franchise QB, but his tape is worthy of a top-five pick. In his career at Alabama, Young checked all the boxes of a pro-ready passer. He evades pressure without bailing out of the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield and will take a chance on a tight-window throw if that’s the best decision within the progression.

Young is willing to stay in the pocket (almost to a fault), and he only threw 12 interceptions in his 949 collegiate passing attempts, which speaks to his processing skills as Alabama put the entire offense on his shoulders. I worry about the kind of punishment Young will take behind the Colts’ offensive line, and he will have to master his timing on throws over the middle of the field. It’s an appealing prospect to marry him with Shane Steichen, who demonstrated how to build an offense around his quarterback’s skills. It should allow Young to open up Steichen’s playbook even more as a drop-back passer. — Lee

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

The Seahawks are doing their homework on the top quarterbacks in this year’s class, and even with three already off the board, they still might take a gander at Will Levis to take over in a post-Geno Smith world. But they instead select the disruptive Carter to pair with their big free-agent signing, Dre’Mont Jones. Jones and Carter would be a mauling duo with positional flexibility up front that would allow the Seahawks to fill in the rest of their defensive line as they see fit.

Carter’s stock has slid since the start of the draft process, and teams will continue looking into the offseason incident that was reported just before the combine. But the Seahawks under Pete Carroll and John Schneider have shown they are willing to take players with character concerns, and Carter’s talent is undeniable. If they are comfortable with Carter, the Seahawks would have a building block to continue refurbishing their defense to go along with what could be a top-tier offense in 2023. — Tice

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR): Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson

Pass rush is the priority if the Lions hope to take the next step, and Murphy is the best edge in this class not named Will Anderson Jr. He steps in across from Aidan Hutchinson, who was runner-up for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and looked like a legitimate foundational piece. Unfortunately, it did little to cover the holes across the rest of the defense. After bringing in a host of veteran defensive backs during free agency, having two productive pass rushers on rookie contracts means Detroit can continue loading its roster with role players while it waits for the right superstar or two to launch the franchise to the top of the NFC North.

Schematically, Murphy fits what Detroit’s version of the 4-3 looks for: tall edges with long arms who look to fire off the ball and rush with power. Murphy has the best first step of any pass rusher in this class and adds value as an edge setter. — Lee

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

The Raiders sniffed around about moving up to take a quarterback — and they still might. But Levis would give the Raiders a strong-armed quarterback who is comfortable working from under center and can push the ball off of play action, both of which Josh McDaniels leans into heavily on offense. Levis is also a good athlete with play strength that can be used on designed runs, something that McDaniels might want to unlock again after his one-season stint with Cam Newton in New England.

The Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year, $72 million contract, but they can get out of it after this season. Having Garoppolo as insurance in case they aren’t able to nab one of this year’s top quarterbacks makes sense, but he’s also a player who can keep the seat warm as a young QB develops. And Levis’ ability to drive the ball all over the field would fit nicely in this type of offense. — Tice

8. Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech

With the hiring of Ryan Nielsen as the Falcons’ defensive coordinator, the players’ body types need to reflect what we know matters to coaches from Dennis Allen’s tree. Wilson is enormous in stature, standing at 6-foot-6 and striking blockers with 270 pounds behind his 35.5-inch arms. He is a bit raw as a pure pass rusher, but he does understand how to create proper angles to crush the pocket as a power rusher, and he’s quietly more explosive and smooth than his frame would suggest.

Wilson can be a powerful run defender at his best, too, and Texas Tech regularly moved him inside to play defensive tackle. His skill set fills a severe need for the Falcons, whose defense has been woefully unproductive in creating havoc in the backfield. — Lee

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Though tempted to take a hometown player in Peter Skoronski, the Bears instead opt for a different Big Ten offensive lineman. Johnson is a long and athletic tackle with a nasty play demeanor, and he became more and more comfortable on the blindside during his last season at Ohio State after switching from guard.

He has quick feet that align perfectly with the Bears’ preferred zone-blocking scheme. He is able to consistently cut off defenders on the back side and has the balance and movement ability to climb to the second level in a controlled manner. Johnson isn’t a finished product as a pass protector, but he has the length and agility to turn into a bona fide left tackle who can protect Justin Fields for years to come. — Tice

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

When it looked like Philadelphia would lose at least one of James Bradberry or Darius Slay, the assumption was that the Eagles would go after a young cornerback with the 10th pick. With both players returning, they can address other spots here. With two star receivers, a pair of corners and their quarterback set to get a large extension, the Eagles’ best move here is to address the trenches.

In steps Skoronski, who has the best tape of any lineman in this class and the versatility to play almost anywhere along the line. Skoronski has light feet, a high football IQ and enough anchor and play strength to move defenders — even though power is not his calling card. Skoronski can fill a similar role to the one Cam Jurgens filled last season — spot starting in case of injuries — or he can win a starting job outright at guard before eventually moving back to tackle whenever Lane Johnson hangs up his cleats. — Lee

11. Tennessee Titans: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

Wright has experience at both tackle positions and goes to a team that simply needs as many warm bodies on the offensive line as it can get. Luckily, Wright is more than just a warm body — he matches the Titans’ preferred body type (i.e., gigantic) under Mike Vrabel and has Pro Bowl upside. But he’s not just a speed bump. Wright moves well for any lineman — especially one who weighs more than 330 pounds. He’s rarely on the ground and can sustain blocks with surprising balance and agility. He also displayed strength and advanced hand usage in both the run and pass games.

The Titans are remodeling their whole roster. Wright will give them a talented player to build their offensive line around, and he carries the added bonus of being from an in-state school. — Tice

12. Houston Texans (via CLE): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

This would be a coup for Houston, which would leave the top 15 with a quarterback of the future and a young tackle to play opposite Laremy Tunsil, who just signed a $75 million extension. Jones is a powerful right tackle capable of moving bodies in the run game. His skill as a pass protector grades out between solid and good, with plenty of growth potential given his athleticism and frame. Tunsil and Jones both have the burst to execute the outside-zone scheme Houston wants to run, setting up an explosive play-action game. — Lee

13. New York Jets: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

The run on offensive linemen continues! Though this pick might end up in the Packers’ hands via a potential Aaron Rodgers move, we’re not making trades in this mock draft. The Jets have talented pieces all over their defense and weapons on offense, but outside of quarterback, the area in which they need an influx of talent is their offensive line.

Getting Alijah Vera-Tucker (who was having a strong 2022 season) back after his season-ending injury will help shore up the interior. The tackle spots remain question marks. Harrison is athletic enough to slot in at either one. He is still raw as far as technique and strength, so there will be a learning curve. But he has a clear path to improve into a very good starting tackle in the NFL. — Tice

14. New England Patriots: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Because of the run on quarterbacks in the top 10, another premium position will inevitably slide in the draft. It just so happens to be cornerbacks in this one. Gonzalez is every bit a top-10 talent, and Bill Belichick would like nothing more than to add to his long list of shutdown corners in New England. Gonzalez has the size and length to take away outside receivers, and plenty of experience in the slot — exactly the kind of versatility the Patriots love in the defensive backfield. — Lee

15. Green Bay Packers, Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Regardless of whether it’s Rodgers or Jordan Love under center for the Packers in 2023, they are going to love having Mayer as an option in the passing game. The Notre Dame product checks a lot of boxes at the tight end position and for how the Packers like to use them. He is a solid blocker with the upside to play tight at the line, but he also has the athleticism and route-running versatility to line up anywhere in the formation. He might lack the elite athleticism to be a true mismatch, but Mayer is a strong pass catcher with reliable hands in the short and intermediate zones. — Tice

16. Washington Commanders: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Washington is in an interesting spot, with needs in the defensive backfield and offensive line in a draft full of both. Most of the top linemen are already off the board, so it makes sense to go with a perimeter playmaker who can be moved around the chessboard as needed. Given Kamren Curl’s ability to perform well close to the line of scrimmage as a slot defender, Branch can join Darrick Forrest as a deep safety and execute Jack Del Rio’s zone-coverage principles. Building up the spine of the defense remains the ethos in D.C. — Lee

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Joey Porter Jr. might get the Steel City legacy nod here, but I ended up going with a different aggressive Big Ten cornerback. Witherspoon is a competitive and intelligent player who has a knack for being around the football. He plays with great eyes in zone coverages and is able to consistently discern offensive pass concepts and blow them up. Witherspoon’s demeanor fits well with the type of defender the Steelers have historically loved, and he will give them another exciting player in the defensive backfield — along with the superb Minkah Fitzpatrick — and help replace Cam Sutton. — Tice

18. Detroit Lions: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

In 2022, the Lions struggled to stop the run, tackled poorly as a team and gave up all manner of explosive plays. So this pick gives Dan Campbell an immediate answer. With C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton, the Lions have added slot defenders, a No. 2 corner and a safety to pair with Kerby Joseph. Porter is 6-2 with long arms, 4.4 speed and great instincts, which should give him as good a chance as any DB in this class to develop into a star. — Lee

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa

As the Buccaneers attempt to navigate the seas in a post-Tom Brady world, they start their retooling process with the very toolsy Van Ness. Far from a finished product, Van Ness would be given some time to harness his size and athletic traits. He is an explosive player with the versatility to play across the line in different fronts and situations. Plopping Van Ness alongside Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Logan Hall would give the Bucs a trio of players with positional flexibility to build around up front. Van Ness could eventually become the best of the bunch. — Tice

20. Seattle Seahawks: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia

Seattle needs better bodies up front like I need air to breathe, and it makes sense for Smith to join his college teammate Jalen Carter in the Pacific Northwest. Smith has some size issues, but he makes up for them with an undying motor and elite speed for the position. Smith logged a 4.39 at the combine, and his 41-inch vertical confirms the explosive burst you see on tape. He’s capable of chasing down quarterbacks as they scramble and can set an edge as well as the 270-plus-pound edges in this class. Smith can comfortably drop into coverage, too, adding important versatility to Seattle’s 3-4 scheme. — Lee

*Miami Dolphins: pick forfeited*

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

The Chargers are doing the best they can to keep their contention window propped open for 2023, before they attempt to rebuild their aging roster after this season when they’re expected to pay Justin Herbert the GDP of a small country. Though Gerald Everett is a nice auxiliary weapon in a passing attack, his blocking — as is the case with every other tight end on the roster — leaves much to be desired. Enter the jumbo-sized Washington (6-7, 264 pounds). He is far from a finished product as a blocker, but he would be a significant improvement over what the Chargers currently have in that regard. He also has the hands and athletic gifts to be a fantastic secondary weapon in the red zone and over the middle. — Tice

22. Baltimore Ravens: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

In light of Lamar Jackson’s publicly announced trade request, the air of excitement around finally addressing the Ravens’ receiver problems escapes me. Still, Johnston would be a welcome addition as a vertical or yards-after-catch threat across from Rashod Bateman. Johnston runs routes well for his height (6-3) and has impressive change-of-direction skills with the ball in his hands.

With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken in the fold, a combination of Johnston, Bateman and Mark Andrews with Baltimore’s offensive line would make for an intriguing foundation to pair with a Jackson-esque quarterback. If only there were such a player available … — Lee

23. Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Even after the signing of Byron Murphy this offseason, the Vikings have a desperate need for cornerbacks. Luckily, there is a deep crop of them at the top of the draft. Banks is an athletic player with plus ball skills whose testing numbers aligned with what he showed on film. Banks also excels in man coverage with his ability to mirror wide receivers, which would be a great fit for new defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ preferred scheme. — Tice

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

In Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach, the Jaguars found the offensive concepts that fit their personnel best and helped Trevor Lawrence achieve his best stretch of football since he was at Clemson. With the offensive skill-position core intact for another season, Jacksonville can focus on the trenches and defensive backfield.

Ringo provides the bump-and-run physicality and straight-line speed to play alongside the improved Tyson Campbell. If Travon Walker and the young linebackers can make a leap in their development, an above-average Jaguars pass defense should push the team back toward playoff contention. — Lee

25. New York Giants: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Drafting slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson in the second round last year shouldn’t preclude the Giants from taking Smith-Njigba here. Even if there are concerns about how Smith-Njigba will operate on the outside, he is a true needle mover working from the slot and has already put some concerns about his game — namely his speed — to bed at the combine and Ohio State’s pro day. He would give Daniel Jones someone truly deserving of a lion’s share of the targets and allow Isaiah Hodgins, a pleasant surprise in 2022, to stay outside.

Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka showed the ability to adapt to his personnel during his first season as a play caller. I have faith he can make the Giants’ hodgepodge of weapons work, especially with tight end Darren Waller. — Tice

26. Dallas Cowboys: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Dalton Schultz is out in Dallas, leaving the Cowboys in dire need of a tight end — preferably one who can create yards after the catch and stretch the defense up the seam. Kincaid can do both, and his willingness to make tough catches through contact over the middle would also open up more opportunities for Mike McCarthy to move around CeeDee Lamb or utilize him as a downfield threat. Kincaid needs a little work as a blocker, but the Cowboys offense has been putting more on Dak Prescott’s shoulders as a passer every year, and Prescott will need the receiving options to meet the demands. — Lee

27. Buffalo Bills: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

Brandon Beane will probably have to be strapped to a pole to fight the instinct to take Bijan Robinson with this selection. But Torrence would give the Bills another stout offensive lineman to help reinforce their run game as the season goes on and the weather gets colder. Torrence will be a Day 1 starter and provides excellent play strength to keep the middle of the pocket clean for Josh Allen to do Josh Allen things and make the Bills’ run game more physical.

Combined with the signing of guard Connor McGovern and a running back, Damien Harris, who does his best work downhill and from under center, Torrence would match the Bills’ desire to bring a different element to their already potent offense. — Tice

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Robinson is the most talented offensive skill player in this draft, and adding him to the collection of talent around Joe Burrow feels unfair. Samaje Perine is already gone as the third-down back, and with Joe Mixon effectively in the final year of his contract, it seems doubtful that he’ll be extended as Burrow’s extension talks loom large. Bringing in Robinson would give Cincinnati an every-down option in the mold of Christian McCaffrey, and with defenses forcing the Bengals to run the ball and throw it short more often, he could punish any light box or soft zone opponents throw at him. — Lee

29. New Orleans Saints (via SF): Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

The Saints could go in several directions with this pick. But with several interior defensive linemen leaving in free agency, they need reinforcements. Enter the undersized but disruptive Kancey. Kancey is a different type of player than what the Saints have trotted out up front in recent years, but his gap-shooting style will fit perfectly in Dennis Allen’s preferred four-down fronts. — Tice

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

The Eagles address a loss of defensive depth with Bresee, and he and Jordan Davis position themselves as the next-generation replacements for Javon Hargrave (signed with San Francisco) and Fletcher Cox (playing on a one-year deal). Objectively, Bresee underperformed given his status as a top high school recruit and starter since his freshman year, but his injuries and the death of his sister brought some fits and starts to his college career.

At his best, Bresee is explosive and strong, and Philadelphia can use him without needing him to be an every-down contributor right out of the gate. — Lee

31. Kansas City Chiefs, Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

Offensive tackle and wide receiver are definitely in play here for the defending Super Bowl champions. But the Chiefs decide to add another piece up front to their young and rejuvenated defense.

Smith has excellent size with plus athleticism and will likely be a traditional interior plugger who will make running the ball a chore for offenses. Pairing him with the disruptive Chris Jones on the inside while keeping linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay clean to run around and make plays in the run game is an appealing proposition. And forcing offenses into third-and-long will surely make Steve Spagnuolo giddy to get to his Rolodex of blitz packages. — Tice