It is time for the NFL to discuss rules changes and ProFootballTalk.com has a string of posts on what may be in store.

First the Eric Bienemy Rule that would put assistant coaches on playoff teams in the same position as assistant coaches on losers.  Michael David Smith:

NFL teams may have to wait until after the Super Bowl to hire coaches, if a proposed rule change goes into effect.

The Bills have submitted a proposal to the league office that would prevent hirings of new coaches until after the Super Bowl, according to Albert Breer of SI.com.

The proposal would also bar interviews for front-office and coaching positions until after the conference championship games.

If the rule change were adopted, it would shift the coach hiring cycle by a few weeks, and it would be advantageous to assistant coaches on playoff teams, who currently have a limited window of time to interview and can’t take a new job until their team’s postseason run is over.

Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is an example of an assistant who might have received a head-coaching offer this year if coaches couldn’t be hired until after the Super Bowl.

Some teams may oppose this rule change on the theory that teams with new coaches are already crunched for time in the offseason, and delaying hirings until after the Super Bowl would only make it harder to assemble a full staff and get to work on the offseason.

Such proposals are voted on by the 32 teams at the offseason league meeting.

Tired of questionable roughing the passer penalties going without review and recourse?  So are some in the NFL.  But Mike Florio remembers the disaster of Al Riveron handling pass interference reviews:

Good news: Roughing the pass could become subject to replay review.

Bad news: Roughing the pass could become subject to replay review.

According to Judy Battista of NFL Media, owners could vote to make roughing the passer subject to replay review. On one hand, it’s necessary. On the other hand, pass interference calls and non-calls were subject to replay review for a year, and it was a disaster.

Given the way the rules are written, the replay process would entail scanning on a frame-by-frame basis any and all available angles for any and all potential instances of roughing based on broad, literal application of the rule. It would become, from a coach’s challenge perspective, a potential emergency option to extend a key drive. And for every interception, which makes the replay process automatic, part of the second look will entail checking to see whether any potential roughing the passer happened.

In support of the possibility of making roughing the passer subject to review, the item at NFL.compoints to a horrendous roughing call that helped the Vikings beat the Lions in a Week 17 game to which no one paid any attention. Without replay review, the seemingly phantom call could not be reverse.

Still, while it’s a good idea in theory, the league potentially would be stepping on another rake given the manner in which the rule would be applied. It also could result in the same kind of shifting standard for what does and doesn’t result in a reversal of a ruling on the field, in the same way the bar for interference seemed to move up and down in 2019.

So what’s the best way to prevent a truly egregious blunder? Sky judge. That’s the answer. Specifically, the NFL should add an extra member of the officiating crew who sits in a booth and watches all available angles and communicates with the referee, the same as any on-field official. That’s the way to properly allow for a truly obvious blunder to be quickly fixed, without relying on a replay process that tends to excessively micromanage and overofficiate and, ultimately, render rulings on judgment-type calls with all the reliability of a Magic 8 Ball.

Will the 10-minute overtime, that seems to produce one early-season tie per year, go away?  Mike Florio:

When it comes to overtime, the NFL previously has decided not to let perfect be the enemy of good. Now, the league may be reverting to awful.

Buried at the bottom of an item on the league’s official website regarding the possible expansion of replay review to roughing the passer calls and non-calls is a bombshell that merits its own major headline: Overtime could revert to true sudden death.

The league adopted modified sudden-death overtime in 2010, after the Saints advanced to the Super Bowl with a decent kickoff return, a few first downs (two of which were sparked by questionable defensive penalties), and a walk-off field goal. Currently, a field goal on the first drive of overtime gives the other team a chance to match, with sudden death happening on the first drive only if a touchdown is scored. If anything, the league should consider allowing the team that lost the coin toss a chance to match any score (especially in the playoffs), given the manner in which the rules have become skewed toward offense.

So why would the league choose not to make overtime procedures more fair but to turn the clock back to the days when the toss of a coin had a gigantic impact on who won and who lost? Given that the league already has reduced overtime from 15 minutes to 10 minutes in the regular season in order to prevent a team from, for example, playing 75 minutes on Sunday and another 75 minutes four days later, the move to re-embrace true sudden-death overtime could (emphasis, could) be part of laying the foundation for more short-week games.

So why would there by more short-week games? Well, in order to maximize the revenue potential from in-game betting, which will explode once the technology eliminates all latency from the stadium to the living room, the NFL needs more stand-alone games. It will make tremendous sense when in-game betting arrive to get away from having eight or nine games at 1:00 p.m. ET and moving them into as many unique spots as possible.

For now, the windows consist of three on Sunday (a fourth could be added at 9:30 a.m. ET, for London games), one on Monday, and one on Thursday. Some expect that the next wave of TV deals will make more liberal use of doubleheaders on Monday nights, creating another stand-alone game.

Although Fridays and Saturdays are off limits from Labor Day through mid-December as part of the broadcast antitrust exemption (don’t be shocked if the NFL eventually tries to make that go away), Tuesdays and Wednesdays remain available, and were used in 2020 due to the pandemic. It becomes impossible, however, to give every team seven days between games on a regular basis if the schedule hopscotches around from Sunday to Monday to Tuesday to Wednesday to Thursday. Ultimately, there could be a five-day gap or two to go along with the four-day short week that most teams currently endure once per year. Six-day gaps would become much more common, too, if a team plays on (for example) a Wednesday and then a Tuesday (and then a Monday and then a Sunday).

While a full embrace of what would be nine windows per week may be several years away, there’s no better way to clear the deck for any impediments to more short-week games than to adopt now a set of overtime procedures that would lead to shorter games.

Is it fair? Nope. Will it matter if the objective is to maximize revenue arising directly from enhanced gambling opportunities? Nope. Given the money to be made from in-game betting, it’s impossible to rule out a return to the days when, if the game was tied after 60 minutes, they’ll just call it a tie and move on.

And Florio has this on a proposed new overtime procedure that would limit the effect of a coin toss:

The overtime rules are poised for a potential shakeup far more intriguing than a simple reversion to true sudden death.

Per multiple sources with knowledge of the situation, the Ravens will be proposing a pair of overtime procedures premised on the concept of “spot and choose.”

It works like this: One team picks the spot of the ball to start overtime, and the other team chooses whether to play offense or defense.

If the one team picks, for example, the offense’s own 20 yard line, the opponent would then choose whether to play offense from their own 20 or to play defense, with the other team having the ball on its own 20. This would minimize greatly the impact of the coin toss; under this proposal, the coin toss would be used only to give the team that wins the toss the right to pick the spot of the ball (along with the end zone to be defended) or to choose offense or defense.

Under one of the two proposals to be made by the Ravens, overtime would proceed in sudden-death fashion, with the first score by either team ending the game and up to 10 minutes of extra time. (If the game remains tied at that point, the game’s outcome would be a tie.) Under the other proposal (favored, we’re told, by Patriots coach Bill Belichick), the game would continue for another seven minutes and 30 seconds, without a sudden-death component. Whoever leads after the extra time has ended would be the winner. (Again, if the game remains tied after the extra session, the game’s outcome would be a tie.)

As one source involved in the development of the proposal pointed out to PFT, it actually traces to an idea articulated in 2003 by our own Michael David Smith, who at the time wrote for FootballOutsiders.com.

It’s believed that the break-even point would be the 13 yard line. For the 14 or beyond, the team choosing offense or defense will be more likely to take the ball. For the 12 or closer, the team choosing offense or defense will be more likely to opt to defend. Obviously, however, the final decision will hinge on a variety of factors, regarding offensive and defensive personnel, weather conditions, range and accuracy of the kickers on both teams, etc.

Regardless, the “spot and choose” approach replaces chance with strategy. One team picks where the first drive in overtime begins, and the other team picks whether it will take the ball or give the ball to the other team. It’s a fascinating wrinkle that would truly revolutionize overtime and — more importantly — make it fair to both teams.

Like all rules proposals, 23 other teams will have to agree with the Ravens before the rule changes. Count us as being in favor of the approach.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

It is impressive, but not all that unusual, for a QB to pass for 4,000+ yards.

Five quarterbacks have had 10+ 4,000-yard seasons topped by the 14 of Peyton Manning.  The others are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan.  Aaron Rodgers can join the club with 10 or more next year.

The Packers and Colts have each had 16 seasons where an individual QB passed for 4,000 yards.  The Chargers have had 15 such seasons including rookie QB JUSTIN HERBERT this year.

The Bears, as a team, have never had a single 4,000-yard passer in their 101-year history.

The Jets have had one, Joe Namath in a 14-game season, when he set the then NFL record of 4,007, in 1967.

We saw this at ESPN.com:

The Jets have not had a 4,000-yard passer since Joe Namath in 1967 — the first 4,000-yard passer in league history. Their 53-season drought without one is the second longest in the NFL behind that of the Bears, who have never had one.

TEAM   SEASONS        LAST

Bears    101                   Never

Jets      53                     Joe Namath (1967)

Browns 40                     Brian Sipe (1980)

Titans   29                    Warren Moon (1991

Erik Kramer holds the Chicago record with 3,838 pass yards in 1995.  Jay Cutler has the next four best totals ranging between 3,812 and 3,274.

The best Jets total after Namath’s 4,007 in ’67 is 3,905 by Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015.

DETROIT

The Raiders cut WR TYRELL WILLIAMS in a cost-cutting move, but he gets a nice deal from Detroit.  Kyle Meinke of MLive.com:

The pandemic is making it harder to get to know players, and that could mean the Lions will lean harder on previous relationships with players heading into free agency.

“Look, if I’m being completely transparent with you, I think, yeah, that’s a pretty accurate assessment or something I would say would be pretty much in line,” new head coach Dan Campbell said on Tuesday.

One day later, the Lions made their first major splash in free agency — and sure enough, it’s a player with ties to this staff.

The Lions are signing wide receiver Tyrell Williams to a one-year deal that is worth up to $6.2 million, according to ESPN. The 6-foot-4 wideout began his career as an undrafted free agent with the Chargers back in 2015, and went on to play two seasons for Anthony Lynn, the former Chargers head coach who just took over as Detroit’s offensive coordinator.

Williams started 25 of the 32 games he played for Lynn, and caught 84 passes for 1,381 yards and nine touchdowns. His best season came in 2016, when he caught 69 passes for 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns, all career highs.

He landed a four-year, $44.3 million deal with the Raiders in 2019, and immediately led that team’s receivers in yards (651) and touchdowns (six) despite playing through a nagging foot injury. He was supposed to be one of the leaders of a new-look wide receiving corps last season too, but tore his labrum in training camp and was lost for the year.

Las Vegas cut Williams in a cost-saving measure last week, which made him fair game to be signed now rather than having to wait until the start of free agency on March 17. NFL Network ranked Williams 89th on their list of the top players in free agency.

Of course, two of the receivers ranked ahead of Williams on that list are Detroit’s Kenny Golladay (15th) and Marvin Jones (57th). Jones is expected sign elsewhere in free agency, while Golladay’s future remains unclear. The Lions tried negotiating a long-term contract with him last year, but never came close to reaching an agreement. New general manager Brad Holmes declined to say whether those negotiations remain ongoing, or whether the club intends to use the franchise tag if all else fails. That would cost north of $16 million, a lot of money for a team that was as much as $19 million over the salary cap even before the Williams deal.

Detroit has until Tuesday to use the franchise tag on Golladay.

“Kenny has been at the forefront of our mind, in terms of making sure we make the best possible decision for not only the Lions, but for Kenny,” Holmes said this week. “I wish I had a more direct answer to you, to tell you exactly what we’re going to do, but out of respect for the process, I’ll keep that in house.”

Another starting receiver, Danny Amendola, also is eligible to hit the open market on March 17. The only receivers under contract in Detroit were Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison, which made receiver Detroit’s most pressing need heading into free agency.

“It’s no secret that receiver is somewhat of a need,” Campbell said.

And the Lions didn’t even wait for the market to open to begin getting to work.

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

WR GOLDEN TATE is now a former Giant.  Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:

Wide receiver Golden Tate has been released by the New York Giants in a cost-cutting move.

“I appreciate the conversations and professionalism the Giants management showed me earlier today,” Tate wrote Wednesday on social media. “Always a class-act organization from start to finish, your respect means the world to me and my family.”

The move creates $6 million in cap space for the Giants, $10 million if he is designated a post-June 1 cut. Tate was to make $8.5 million and count $11 million against the salary cap in 2021.

The Giants also cut veteran linebacker David Mayo on Wednesday, a source told ESPN, confirming an NFL Network report. Mayo underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee last August but returned and played in 11 games this past season.

Tate, 32, caught 35 passes for 388 yards and two touchdowns last season. It was his least productive season since his rookie year, in part because he missed four games and started just four, serving as the Giants’ third receiver behind Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

The Saints have dumped not one, but two veteran tight ends. You probably haven’t heard of any of the three tight ends still with New Orleans. Amie Just of NoLa.com:

The New Orleans Saints have terminated the contracts of veteran tight ends Jared Cook and Josh Hill, according to Wednesday’s transactions wire.

Cook was set to become a free agent this offseason, while Hill had one more year on his contract.

Hill was going to carry a cap number of nearly $3.3 million for 2021, though his dead cap upon release is $750,000, so releasing the 8-year veteran saves the Saints approximately $2.5 million against the salary cap.

Cook’s release was procedural, and does not affect the Saints’ cap figures since he was scheduled to become a free agent on March 17.

“Jared consistently displayed the playmaking skills that attracted us to him as a free agent two years ago,” Saints coach Sean Payton said in a release. “He made a lot of big plays for us and was a positive influence on his teammates. Jared is a consummate professional who is dedicated to his craft and we wish him the best of luck in the future.”

Cook, 33, played for the Saints for the past two seasons after New Orleans acquired him in free agency in 2019. He played in 29 games for the Saints, catching 80 passes and recording 1,209 yards receiving with 16 touchdowns.

Though, after totaling Pro Bowl numbers in 2019 (43 receptions for 705 yards with nine touchdowns), Cook’s second season in New Orleans left many perplexed — including the man himself.

“I don’t think that I’m having as good as a season as I had last year,” Cook said in November 2020. “And that does bother me.”

Cook finished Year Two in New Orleans with 37 catches for 504 yards with seven touchdowns over 15 games. Cook missed one game early in the 2020 season due to a groin injury.

Hill, 30, had been with the Saints since they signed him as an undrafted free agent out of Idaho State in 2013. He had appeared in 117 games, starting in 61, and amassed 1,071 yards receiving with 15 touchdowns.

Hill “has been a model of consistency throughout his eight seasons with us,” Payton said in a news release. “He has been reliable, selfless and filled numerous roles for us, oftentimes on the fly and in the middle of games, filling each role at a very high level. We appreciate everything he has done for our team and know he will have continued success as he moves forward.”

This past season, Hill had eight catches on 10 targets for 46 yards with one touchdown. He played in 14 games, missing two games due to unrelated injuries. He was out with a concussion in the first contest against the Falcons and then missed the regular season finale against the Panthers due to a hand injury.

Hill’s statistics didn’t jump off the charts, but he had been a vital role player for the Saints as a blocking tight end. When Hill left a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2019 season, Payton likened losing him to “like losing your front door.”

With Cook and Hill off the roster, the Saints have three tight ends currently under contract: last season’s third-round draft pick in Adam Trautman, Garrett Griffin and Ethan Wolf. The two other tight ends affiliated with the Saints last season, Cole Wick and Jason Vander Laan, were released in mid-February.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

QB DEREK CARR has a fan in GM Mike Mayock.  The Athletic:

Las Vegas Raiders general manager Mike Mayock threw his full support behind quarterback Derek Carr on Wednesday, calling Carr “one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.”

“I think Derek Carr had his best year yet, under Jon Gruden,” Mayock told reporters. “I think he’s one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and we couldn’t be happier with him. … But if you’re asking me [specifically] about Derek, I think Jon and I would both stand shoulder to shoulder and pound the table for Derek Carr.”

Carr has two years left on a five-year, $125 million extension he signed with the Raiders in June 2017.

Last season, Carr threw 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions on a career-high 4,103 passing yards. The Raiders finished the season 8-8 — a one-game improvement over their 7-9 finish in 2019. However, they lost five of their last seven games and were just 2-6 in their new home stadium.

What this means

Tashan Reed, Raiders beat writer: Nothing. Gruden, who runs the show here, praised Carr constantly throughout the season and it was clear the quarterback had his best year since the coach returned to the franchise in 2018. The nice words are fine, but that’s all they are until the Raiders make a long-term decision on Carr. He’s going into the penultimate season on his contract and needs a new deal soon.

Should there be trade concerns?

Vic Tafur, Raiders beat writer: I don’t think there ever were. Carr has a very friendly, pay-as-you-go contract for two more years and was definitely a bigger part of the team’s eight wins last year than the eight losses. Trading Carr and picks for Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson was never likely or logical. Dealing Carr to a QB-needy team doesn’t make sense because the Raiders don’t have anyone behind him they would feel comfortable with to step up. Sorry, Marcus Mariota and Nathan Peterman fans.

AFC EAST

NEW YORK JETS

Jets GM Joe Douglas admits he won’t hang up if you call to make an offer on QB SAM DARNOLD.  Rich Cimini of ESPN.com:

The New York Jets, who once considered quarterback Sam Darnold an untouchable asset, are open to listening to trade offers.

“I will answer the call if it’s made,” general manager Joe Douglas said Wednesday in a videoconference with reporters, confirming previous reports that the Jets are willing to field inquiries.

The Jets are facing a major quarterback decision: stay with Darnold, draft a replacement with the No. 2 pick or perhaps pursue Houston Texans star Deshaun Watson if he becomes available — a potential scenario that Douglas downplayed.

Douglas said he’s in no rush to make a quarterback decision, but there’s a pressing deadline with regard to safety Marcus Maye, a pending free agent whose agent lashed out at the Jets on Tuesday night on social media. The GM dismissed the criticism, saying the goal is to sign Maye to a long-term contract. Failing that, they could use the franchise tag by the deadline on Tuesday.

The quarterback drama remains the headline, especially in light of Darnold’s struggles.

At the 2019 trade deadline, Douglas said he’d listen to offers on every player except a franchise quarterback — and he put Darnold in that category. Clearly, that position has changed. Since the end of the season, the organization has remained noncommittal on Darnold.

“As it pertains to Sam, we think Sam is a dynamic player in this league with unbelievable talent,” Douglas said. “He really has a chance to hit his outstanding potential moving forward. [But] if calls are made, I will answer them.”

The Jets have received multiple calls from interested teams, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported previously. Their plan is to evaluate the top quarterbacks in the draft before making a decision on Darnold. The top candidate with the No. 2 pick is thought to be BYU’s Zach Wilson. Douglas said they’re gathering “as much information — good information — as we possibly can” on the available quarterbacks. Another option is sticking with Darnold and trading the second pick for a haul of draft picks.

The wild card is Watson. With two first-round picks in the upcoming draft, and two more in 2022, the Jets have the ammunition to pull off a trade of that caliber.

By rule, Douglas is prohibited from commenting directly on Watson, but he didn’t seem enthused about the prospect of trading significant draft capital for one player. Of course, that could be posturing.

“Obviously, we have a lot of different scenarios and a lot of different rabbit holes we can go down,” he said, responding to a general question about a potential blockbuster deal. “Not to get so much into a hypothetical question, but I just go back to [our philosophy].

“For us to get to where the great teams are, the most consistent teams are, you do that through the draft. It’s the most team-friendly market in sports. For us to be a team that’s consistently competing for Super Bowls, we have to hit on our draft picks.”

The Jets have a history of trading away top draft picks. They traded unhappy safety Jamal Adams last summer, and now Maye — his former sidekick — appears to be disenchanted with negotiations. Agent Erik Burkhardt tweeted that the Jets “refuse to take care of their best player, captain and team-voted MVP.”

THIS AND THAT

KELLEN MOND

QB KENDALL MOND of Texas A&M caught the DB’s eye at the Senior Bowl.  However, since two years ago we were infatuated with QB RYAN FINLEY, we didn’t want to go all in on the pages of the DB.  But we can tell you that Chris Simms, who went to Texas and isn’t easily impressed with an Aggie, also has seen some good things in Mond.

Brian Perroni of Gigem.com:

This year’s preparation for the NFL Draft looks a lot different than in previous years. Ahead of the event, which will be held from Apr. 29 to May 1, there is no NFL Combine this year. While players have been selected to participate in the combine, all of the activities will be conducted at 101 different colleges across the country.

Without a single event in which to evaluate all the top players at the same time, opinions are incredibly varied at this point as to the ranking of players. However, there are a number of prospects that are considered the best of the best by a wide consensus. One of those is Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields.

The junior helped lead the Buckeyes to the national championship game and is considered a lock for the first round and most expect him to be a top-5 overall pick. That is why the quarterback rankings from NBCSports analyst Chris Simms were a bit surprising.

On Wednesday, the former NFL passer shared his top six quarterback prospects for the draft. He had Fields down at No. 5 and, surprisingly, put Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond ahead of him at No. 4 overall.

Mond is coming off a very successful career in Aggieland. The fulltime starter each of the past three seasons after having started multiple games as a true freshmen, the 6-foot-3, 217-pounder rewrote the record books at Texas A&M. Mond holds just about every career record possible for quarterbacks in Aggieland and helped lead the team to a No. 4 ranking in the final polls this past season.

However, most expect Mond to be a mid-round pick in the draft, while the others on Simms’ list are all expected to be first-round selections. Simms will be releasing his explanations for his rankings via his podcast in the near future and it will be interesting to see why he is higher on the Aggie passer than most others are at this point.

Mond had a strong week at the Senior Bowl practices last month and was named the MVP of the game. There is starting to be some buzz about him in draft circles. However, it would be a shock to see him as a first-rounder. It will be a little while down the road before Simms is proven right or wrong on his analysis but the former Texas quarterback is sticking to his guns. On social media, he and others are pointing out that he had Josh Allen ranked as the top quarterback in the 2018 draft and the Buffalo Bills passer is playing up to that ranking now.

Mond and the rest of the Aggie draft hopefuls will take part in Pro Day at Texas A&M on Tue., Mar. 30. With the absence of a true NFL Combine this year, his performance at the event will be closely watched and could cause others to potentially consider joining Simms on the bandwagon.

As we await Simms’ reasoning, here’s Ryan Wilson of CBSSports.com:

We watched Mond over the summer and came away thinking that he could really sling it around the yard, had some athleticism but not enough to regularly scare NFL defenses as a legit running threat (think more Patrick Mahomes than Kyler Murray), and made a lot of questionable decisions in the passing game. He felt like a late Day 3 pick.

Then we watched him in 2020 and we had a completely different perspective (his performance against Florida really got our attention). Yes, Mond is only 6-foot-2, and his hand size is only 9 1/4 inches, but neither was an issue during the season. What stood out, however, was how the ball exploded out of his hand, his ability to throw to all levels with touch, when needed, and accuracy, and how often he was able to squeeze the ball into tight windows, usually while putting it in a position where only his receiver had a chance to make a play.

Mond also showed a knack for knowing where pressure was coming from and either calmly hitting his hot route or dumping the ball off to his running back. We saw this again and again and again. Isn’t wasn’t perfect; Mond sometimes gets caught up in hero ball and instead of taking the sack or throwing it away, he’ll force a pass into double- or triple-coverage. His mistakes can also snowball; instead of making an adjustment early in the game after a miscue he’ll exacerbate matters with more miscues (see the LSU game for a prime example). But those missteps were fewer and further between than what we saw in 2019 and that’s the point — does a quarterback show improvement over the course of a career, and if so, by how much?

So what does this all mean for Mond’s draft stock? For us, he looks like a Day 2 pick based on what we saw on tape in 2020, and as we sit here here’s our QB2 after the Big Five above and Kyle Trask below (put another way, he’s our QB7, but that doesn’t sound nearly as dramatic). How much better can he get will be an important part of the discussion too; unlike Trask and Davis Mills and Jamie Newman, Mond’s been a starter the last four seasons, so he’s had plenty of reps. In that time, his completion percentage has improved each year and his yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio and passer rating were all career bests in ’20.

2021 DRAFT

Chris Burke, now with The Athletic, has a Mock for you:

Putting together an NFL mock draft this time of year is always helpful, not just for the exercise itself but for what it reveals about each roster. If it makes sense to keep pairing a team with a cornerback or an offensive tackle, those positions figure to be high on the list when free agency opens, too. At the bare minimum, all of these mocks should help narrow a team’s needs.

Which is my way of saying that I know a lot of the picks made below will be proven wrong, but I’ve rationalized a way to forgive myself.

A little wrinkle to this rendition: A quick-hit look at whether each team is more likely to move up or down from its given spot (or spots) within Round 1. There’s going to be movement somewhere along the line — Mock 2.0 will fold in a few specific guesses as to where.

Away we go …

1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

More likely to trade up or down? Down. I know many of you will call me an idiot in the comments for this mock, but even I know the Jaguars can’t trade up from here.

Not that there was any doubt, but Lawrence’s pro day cemented his standing as the top available prospect, especially because he powered through it despite impending surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. The NFL machine loves nothing more than being able to hype a quarterback’s toughness.

2. New York Jets — Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

More likely to trade up or down? Down. In fact, there is a little momentum building for the Jets to roll with Sam Darnold, slide back to, say, No. 4 or No. 8 and see where that takes ‘em. If they’re not absolutely in love with Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance, that should be the move.

No matter which team picks here, Wilson is the odds-on favorite to be QB2. His athleticism and ability to throw from all sorts of arm angles and platforms means he can make things happen, even if his offensive line isn’t up to par.

3. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

More likely to trade up or down? Down. Really the last spot where the trade up/down game has a fairly obvious answer. With the expected early run on quarterbacks, the Jets and Dolphins should field plenty of phone calls.

As much fun as it would be to reunite Tua Tagovailoa with DeVonta Smith, we can safely assume that Tagovailoa would enjoy throwing to Chase, too. Chase is a plug-and-play No. 1 receiver with immediate 1,000-yard potential; DeVante Parker, at 793 yards, topped Miami’s production last year.

4. Atlanta Falcons — Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

More likely to trade up or down? Up … ? Were aggressive former GM Thomas Dimitroff still calling the shots, it’d be natural to predict the Falcons climbing for their QB of the future. Will new general manager Terry Fontenot be as willing to roll the dice?

A lot of different ways this selection could go. But something about Lance sitting behind Matt Ryan for a year and soaking in an Arthur Smith offense feels right. Smith could unlock Lance’s full, dynamic skill set.

5. Cincinnati Bengals — Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

More likely to trade up or down? Down, primarily because it’s been two-plus decades since the Bengals traded up in Round 1. They don’t need a QB this year.

It’d be tempting to grab one of the playmaking weapons here with A.J. Green about to hit free agency. It should be more of a priority to build a stout O-line in front of Joe Burrow. Pairing Sewell with Jonah Williams could give Cincinnati its bookend tackles for years to come.

6. Philadelphia Eagles — Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

More likely to trade up or down? Down. Unless the Eagles are already all the way out on Jalen Hurts, the value for them is in stockpiling picks. They’re still in a good spot here to dangle a QB or an elite wide receiver to a team in need.

Pitts is special. He’s a “tight end” by designation but can do so much, from so many different alignments, to help an offense that he almost needs his own category. If new coach Nick Sirianni’s offense still looks like it did in Indianapolis, he’d take full advantage of Pitts’ talents.

7. Detroit Lions — Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

More likely to trade up or down? Down. Then maybe down again. The Lions lack high-end talent, but what first-year GM Brad Holmes really needs in 2021 and ‘22 is as many darts as he can throw.

This roster hasn’t had a lightning-bolt threat like Waddle since … uh … does a 28-year-old Reggie Bush count? Detroit’s offense has long been built around receivers who can stretch the field vertically. It hasn’t had guys who can threaten all levels sideline to sideline.

8. Carolina Panthers — Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

More likely to trade up or down? Up. It’s no secret that Carolina is willing to push all-in for a new quarterback — Dane Brugler had the Panthers trading up to No. 3 (for multiple first-rounders) in his last mock.

Without any trades here, the board falls in the Panthers’ favor (unless they prefer Wilson or Lance). Fields might take a bunch of sacks as a rookie as he adjusts to NFL speed, but the upside is enormous. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady certainly could make this work.

9. Denver Broncos — Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

More likely to trade up or down? Down, barring a shift over the next few weeks toward needing a new quarterback of the future. There’s a decent chance that some other team out there would want to nab the first defensive player off the board.

For all the hype over a Chase-Smith-Waddle debate at receiver, the Surtain-Caleb Farley-Jaycee Horn pecking order will be huge in this range. Surtain is a 6-foot-2 defender whose NFL bloodlines — his dad was a three-time Pro Bowler — show up in how he works the nuances of his position.

10. Dallas Cowboys — Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

More likely to trade up or down? Down. An inverse of the Bengals, in that the Cowboys just don’t trade down much. But the board should still look rather favorable if they drop back a couple of spots.

The biggest swing, trade or not, would be predicting the Cowboys to select something other than a cornerback. It’s fortunate, though, when a position of need lines up with the board. Farley is another 6-2 defender with the speed to run and stay in phase against receivers outside.

11. New York Giants — Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

More likely to trade up or down? Up. GM Dave Gettleman sometimes seems like he’d rather let the clock run out on his selection than trade back. But moving the other way this year could land him a premier receiver.

I thought about offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and edge Azeez Ojulari here, but Parsons was too much of a value to pass up here. Give him a year or two to bank some more experience and the Penn State product could be a game-wrecking All-Pro on the second level.

12. San Francisco 49ers — Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

More likely to trade up or down? Up. You’ve probably already seen multiple mocks suggesting the 49ers jump into the top 10 for a quarterback. That buzz won’t die without a big move there ahead of the draft.

This is slightly contingent on left tackle Trent Williams exiting San Francisco. However, even if he sticks around, a significant selling point for Slater is his versatility. If the 49ers are one of the teams that views Slater as a top-10 pick — maybe even the best OT prospect — this would be a steal.

13. Los Angeles Chargers — Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

More likely to trade up or down? Down. Slater coming this close to No. 13 might change the thinking — this line is desperate for someone of that caliber — but trading down would give the Chargers multiple chances to cash in on this O-line class’ depth.

Wasn’t expecting to have an internal Horn vs. DeVonta Smith debate at 13. As mentioned, however, the opportunities should be there to nab multiple starting-caliber offensive linemen on Day 2. At this spot, the Chargers address another need with a sticky man-coverage option.

14. Minnesota Vikings — Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

More likely to trade up or down? Up. Teams in this middle range, who missed the playoffs yet see themselves as a handful of players away from legitimate contention, are always trade-up favorites. Could Minnesota make a move on an OT?

It’s tough to play defense in this league without consistent interior pressure, which the Vikings did not have last season. Barmore would fix that. When he’s on — like he was during the College Football Playoff — he’s a nightmare up front.

15. New England Patriots — DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

More likely to trade up or down? Up. How badly does Bill Belichick want to find his new franchise quarterback? It’s a long haul from No. 15 to the top seven or eight.

There are fits all over the place for Smith, plus teams that no doubt would be intrigued by the reigning Heisman winner falling into their lap. The floor has to be right around this range. Forget about Smith’s lack of prototypical size; his polished game is very NFL-ready.

16. Arizona Cardinals — Alijah Vera-Tucker, G/T, USC

More likely to trade up or down? Up. One can see why in this mock — the Cardinals just missed out on prospects like Horn and Smith, either of whom would be welcome fits.

Ojulari (who has a very strong case for being the top edge) slotted here until the J.J. Watt news broke. Vera-Tucker might have been a wiser investment anyway. He’s capable of starting inside or out, and the Cardinals have to make sure they keep Kyler Murray upright.

17. Las Vegas Raiders — Azeez Ojulari, edge, Georgia

More likely to trade up or down? Down. Tough call here, but I’m just not seeing a lot of prospects the Raiders would be desperate to go get. Better to fall back, if the opportunity arises, considering how close the grades figure to be on players in this range.

Elite edge players are so coveted, it’s hard to grasp the first one coming off the board just past the Round 1 halfway point. It could happen this year, though, because other positions are stronger at the top. Ojulari has enough burst and know-how for his position to make an early impact.

18. Miami Dolphins — Gregory Rousseau, edge, Miami

More likely to trade up or down? Down. May as well keep piling up the picks — it’s worked well for Miami so far during this rebuilding phase.

Mini-run on edge players, as Rousseau stays local and gives the Dolphins a physical, three-down presence up front. His size (6-7, 265) and length pair well with the Brian Flores defensive scheme.

19. Washington Football Team — Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, S, TCU

More likely to trade up or down? Up, should one of the top four quarterbacks start to fall. They were gone by pick No. 8 here, meaning Washington likely would have to get to at least No. 7. It would take multiple first-rounders to make it happen.

The other option is to take Mac Jones (or another QB) at this spot. Thought about it, but The Athletic’s Ben Standig just wrote that the WFT is hunting a veteran: Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, etc. Instead, it’s Moehrig-Woodard, a player who does pretty much everything well.

20. Chicago Bears — Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

More likely to trade up or down? Up. Same caveat as Washington, however, that it would hinge on how feasible it is to go get Wilson/Lance/Fields. Jones might not generate the same interest.

Jones comes with a mixed bag of opinions about his upside. So, here’s what we know: He played and won on a huge stage (albeit with elite talent around him), he’s a pinpoint passer in short to intermediate windows, and he was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. This wouldn’t be a sit-and-wait pick. Jones still can step in and compete for the starting gig on Day 1.

21. Indianapolis Colts — Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

More likely to trade up or down? Down. While the Colts have their QB now in Carson Wentz, that trade left them shy on draft picks this year and next. They could recoup one from this spot.

Our recent beat writer mock had Jones and Darrisaw at 20 and 21, respectively. I didn’t follow suit on purpose, but both picks work. Darrisaw could plug in at tackle for the Colts and — bonus — allow Quenton Nelson to stay at guard. A Darrisaw-Nelson combo on the left side would absolutely maul defensive fronts.

22. Tennessee Titans — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

More likely to trade up or down? Is “stay put” cheating? This is a good spot for what Tennessee needs, notably at edge. If that’s not allowed, let’s say trade down — the default if there isn’t a clear trade-up match.

If we fast forwarded five years and learned Owusu-Koramoah — not Parsons — was the best “linebacker” in this class, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. They’re completely different players, of course. The Titans’ pick at 23 is that safety/linebacker hybrid who’s almost a must-have in the modern NFL.

23. New York Jets (from Seattle) — Asante Samuel, CB, Florida State

More likely to trade up or down? Up. Outside of No. 2 overall, the Jets have five more picks within the top 100. Plenty of ammo should they want to climb a few spots midway through Round 1.

Trying to do the math to weigh where the value is now vs. where it’ll be when the Jets pick again at 34 — they easily could go edge or O-line in this spot, too. And because of an approaching cliff at cornerback, let’s make it Samuel here. Worry about the size (5-10, 185) if you must, but Samuel has phenomenal feet and always finds the ball.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers — Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

More likely to trade up or down? Down. Scaling the mountain for a quarterback only works if Jones is their guy or there’s a precipitous drop from those ranked ahead of him. An extra top-100 pick would be huge as the Ben Roethlisberger window closes.

Does having a star running back matter if there’s no one to block for him? Let’s find out. With or without Roethlisberger in 2021, the Steelers have to get more out of their backfield. Harris is a highly productive back who offers more than people give him credit for as a receiving threat.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) — Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

More likely to trade up or down? Up. Essentially, the same argument as we just made with the Jets at 23. The Jaguars have six top-100 picks (and four top-50 picks), so they can be aggressive.

The presences of Myles Jack and Joe Schobert don’t make linebacker a glaring need for the Jaguars, per se, but adding a third standout could propel that position group into the stratosphere. Collins will be on a lot of radars by this range, because of how many different ways he can contribute.

26. Cleveland Browns — Kwity Paye, edge, Michigan

More likely to trade up or down? Up. This team is close enough that it could talk itself into thinking it’s one or two players away by late April.

The top-10 buzz on Paye might be a bit lofty, but it’s driven by his freaky athletic traits. Put him opposite Myles Garrett, tee him up in a bunch of one-on-one sets and the pass-rush numbers should be there. If he slides close to this far, Cleveland — or another club — could consider jumping a few slots for him.

27. Baltimore Ravens — Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

More likely to trade up or down? Down. The Ravens’ front office is one that appreciates quantity and value during the draft. It’s down a Round 3 pick, too, so the Ravens no doubt would love to pull one back.

Does Baltimore need more help inside at guard — that could be the Harbaugh connection Jalen Mayfield pick — or at tackle, if Orlando Brown gets moved? Jenkins addresses the latter. He’s one of the meaner, more powerful dudes you’ll see on tape.

28. New Orleans Saints — Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

More likely to trade up or down? Up, but only for Mac Jones. Could the Saints staple a rough contract to pick No. 28 or is that too much of an NBA-style move? Either way, sliding back a round might get the Saints a shot at a QB and another contributing player.

It’ll take a bit to filter things through a post-Drew Brees lens. This pick would help any QB the Saints plug in for 2021. Toney’s movement skills are almost hard to fathom, from a football and physics perspective. Not even Waddle has this type of shimmy in space.

29. Green Bay Packers — Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

More likely to trade up or down? Down. After trading up for Jordan Love last year, the Packers might put themselves in a self-imposed timeout on those early swings for the fences.

Nixon’s projected draft stock is all over the place. It’s a long wait from 29 to Green Bay’s pick at 62, though, and the Iowa product showed an ability for eating up interior blocking. As a complement to Kenny Clark, he’d have ample chances to split gaps up front.

30. Buffalo Bills — Jayson Oweh, edge, Penn State

More likely to trade up or down? Up. The appeal of a defensive game-changer could be enticing for a Bills team that fell one stop short of the Super Bowl. Dane Brugler pulled the trigger for the No. 21 pick — and Horn — in his last projection.

There are a bunch of viable O-line options for the Bills — Jalen Mayfield, Wyatt Davis, Liam Eichenberg, Landon Dickerson. Just enough of them that Buffalo might be able to wait and see what it can do in Round 2. Oweh is a raw-upside prospect that Sean McDermott probably would love to mold into a pass-rushing force.

31. Kansas City Chiefs — Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State

More likely to trade up or down? Down. The Chiefs pick deep into Rounds 1-5 and again in Round 7, so adding anything early — plus an extra selection elsewhere — might be worth it. The extended gap between the first and seconds rounds of the draft is a nice advantage for the teams picking early on Friday.

Don’t want to overreact to what happened in the Super Bowl but BIG YIKES. The Chiefs needed to upgrade their line anyway, and they also could be dealing with several departures during free agency. Davis would make life easier for Patrick Mahomes.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jaelan Phillips, edge, Miami (Fla.)

More likely to trade up or down? Down. Move back, add a pick, watch the board develop for another 24 hours. Not a bad plan for the defending Super Bowl champs.

If any team can afford to take a shot on Phillips, who’s already retired from football once due to concussion issues, it’s the Bucs off their remarkable 2020. A healthy, committed Phillips might be as good as this edge class gets in terms of all-around, versatile ability.