The Daily Briefing Thursday, May 14, 2020
AROUND THE NFLDaily Briefing |
Should a LockDown Governor, in California or elsewhere, dictate the banishment of the NFL for 2020, Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida, harshly criticized by Peter King, wants the world to know any and all of those teams can find safe haven in his state. ESPN.com:
Florida’s Ron DeSantis became the second governor to announce that his state is open to professional sports teams that want to resume activity amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“All professional sports are welcome here for practicing and for playing,” DeSantis said at a news conference Wednesday in Tallahassee. “What I would tell commissioners of leagues is, if you have a team in an area where they just won’t let them operate, we’ll find a place for you here in the state of Florida.”
On Tuesday, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey announced that professional sports, including MLB, the NBA, the NHL and the NFL, may resume in the state — without fans — on Saturday, as long as Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines are followed.
Last month, Florida’s DeSantis had deemed sports “essential services,” allowing WWE and UFC events to take place in the state without fans. The Tiger Woods-Peyton Manning vs. Phil Mickelson-Tom Brady golf match will be in Hobe Sound on May 24, also without fans.
DeSantis launched a phase 1 plan to reopen the state on Monday for all counties not including Miami-Dade and Broward. Those two counties will open this coming Monday.
The Miami Heat reopened their facility Wednesday for players to undergo voluntary, individual workouts. Twelve players went in for voluntary, socially distanced workouts, sources told ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne.
DeSantis specifically mentioned baseball, soccer and basketball in his remarks Wednesday.
“Our people are starved to have some of this back in our lives,” he said. “I think we can certainly do it in a way that’s safe.” King, nominally a football writer and broadcaster, has let the world know he sides with those promoting LockDowns, even if they cost him a livelihood: @peter_king Fauci has been studying science since college in 1957. He has been the country’s infectious-disease leader since 1984. Yet many who have “studied” this virus for 10 weeks feel it fair and righteous to call him a fraud and believe media screamers. – We need to trust scientists. King had been “studying” this virus for less than that when he proclaimed DeSantis (now under 2,000 deaths attributed to the Virus) as a “day late and a dollar short” while praising LockDown Governor Mario Cuomo (now 27,290). A shot from Clay Travis: @ClayTravis @GovRonDeSantis said NFL teams could use the University of Florida and FSU’s stadiums this fall if their states wouldn’t allow them to play. Would be amazing if @peter_king ended up covering games in these stadiums. |
NFC EAST |
DALLAS Joel Corry of CBSSports.com (a “former agent”) does a deep dive into the DAK PRESCOTT dealings: The Cowboys started negotiating a long-term deal with Creative Artist Agency Football’s Todd France, Dak Prescott’s agent, over a year ago, when he was heading into the final year of his four-year rookie contract. Because the parties couldn’t get on the same page contractually, Prescott was given an exclusive franchise tag in March worth $31.409 million to make sure the Cowboys retained the quarterback’s services for the 2020 season. The Cowboys have no intention of going to the rare and extreme step of letting Prescott become an unrestricted free agent by rescinding his franchise tag.
The latest Cowboys offer reportedly on the table averages $35 million per year for five years with guarantees in the $106 million range, according to 105.3 The Fan’s Mike Fisher. $35 million per year would tie Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson as the NFL’s highest-paid player. $106 million in guarantees would be the fourth most in an NFL contract. Fisher didn’t reveal other pertinent details about the Dallas offer, such as signing bonus, amount fully guaranteed at signing and cash flow.
Negotiations will come to a head before 4 p.m. ET on July 15, as that’s the deadline for franchise players to sign a multi-year contract. After this deadline, the Cowboys are prohibited from signing Prescott long-term until the end of the 2020 regular season on Jan. 3, 2021.
Why Prescott doesn’t want five years One major sticking point in the negotiations is length of contract as Prescott wants a four-year deal. If representing Prescott, I wouldn’t want a five-year deal either. The salary cap is expected to increase significantly with the addition of a 17th regular season game and new media rights deals, and most of the current TV deals expire after the 2022 season. The 17th game most likely will be implemented at some point before the 2023 season. Prescott would be better positioned to take advantage of the anticipated financial growth with a four-year deal.
The recent trend with high-end quarterback contracts has been a shorter term than what Dallas would prefer. There are seven passers with contracts averaging $30 million or more per year. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is the only one whose deal contains more than four new contract years as he signed a five-year contract extension. The average length for these seven quarterback deals is 3.57 new years. Since all seven deals were extensions (had at least one year remaining on their existing deals when signed), the quarterbacks are under contract for average of five total years.
Total and average salary There wouldn’t be many circumstances where a five-year deal would get real consideration from Prescott’s agent. First off, I would be operating under the assumption that Prescott would get a second franchise tag in 2021 at the CBA-mandated 20 percent increase, so his salary next year would be $37,690,800. Prescott would make nearly $69.1 million through 2021 by going year-to-year with unrestricted free agency as a realistic possibility in 2022, since a third franchise tag would be $54,274,752, a 44 percent increase over the 2021 franchise tag.
The question essentially becomes what type of three-year deal (covering the 2022 through 2024 seasons) can Dallas offer two years early in an enticing enough five-year structure to abandon the quest for a four-year deal or forego making almost $69.1 million by playing the franchise tag game before likely hitting the open market.
The $40 million-per-year quarterback is on the horizon. The Texans have had preliminary discussions regarding a new deal with 2017 first-round pick Deshaun Watson, who is under contract through the 2021 season. After the Texans dramatically reset the offensive tackle market with Laremy Tunsil at $22 million per year on a shorter-than-expected deal (a three-year extension), it wouldn’t be too surprising for Watson’s extension to hit the $40 million-per-year mark.
The Chiefs are reportedly making 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes’ extension a priority now that the NFL Draft has been conducted. If Watson doesn’t become the NFL’s first $40 million-per-year player, Mahomes should when he signs a new contract unless he intentionally leaves a lot of money on table in giving the Chiefs a massive hometown discount. 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson becomes eligible for a new deal once the 2020 regular season is completed.
Knowing that quarterback salaries are going to surpass the $40 million-per-year mark no later than next year, valuing Prescott’s 2022 to 2024 contract years in the $120 million neighborhood isn’t outlandish. Those years added to the nearly $70 million from franchise tags in this year and next year puts the five-year contract total at $190 million for an average of $38 million per year.
Cash flow The cash flow in the early years of a five-year contract would have to be superior to what Dallas did with its last two franchise players, defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and wide receiver Dez Bryant.
Last offseason, Lawrence signed a five-year, $105 million contract with $65 million in guarantees, of which $48 million was fully guaranteed at signing. $25 million of the guaranteed money was a signing bonus and another $4.6 million was in a roster bonus due six days after signing, bringing the total upfront money to $29.6 million.
Bryant signed a five-year, $70 million contract in 2015 as the deadline for franchise players to sign long-term deals was approaching. $32 million was fully guaranteed at signing, which included a $20 million signing bonus. The total guarantees were $45 million.
The Cowboys fully guaranteed the first two years of Lawrence and Bryant’s contracts, while the third year was guaranteed for injury at signing and became fully guaranteed a couple days after free agency started in the second contract year. For Lawrence, his 2021 contract year was fully guaranteed this past March. The Cowboys shouldn’t reasonably expect Prescott to sign a contract where the same or better isn’t done for him.
Prescott’s full guarantee would need to be in excess of $95 million with cash flow percentages similar to Carr, Ryan and Stafford’s deals in a $190 million contract. The overall guarantees would have to exceed $125 million since Prescott’s cash through three years (2022) would be 65.79 percent at that amount.
Prescott’s 2020 compensation would have to be right around $70 million to match the first-year cash percentages of those three quarterbacks. It really wouldn’t matter how Dallas classified the first-year cash (i.e., signing bonus, base salary, roster bonus due shortly after signing). In order to get any significant break on Prescott’s 2020 salary cap number relative to his $31.409 million franchise number, his signing bonus would probably be at least $55 million. 28.57 percent of Bryant’s deal was in signing bonus; on a $190 million contract, a $55 million signing bonus would be a comparable amount for Prescott.
There wouldn’t be guarantees in the final two contract years. A portion of Prescott’s 2023 and 2024 compensation would need to be in first or third day of the league year roster bonuses so Dallas couldn’t release Prescott at an inopportune time like they did with Bryant in 2018. Goff (second day of league year), Carson Wentz (third day) and Wilson (fifth day) have $5 million roster bonuses in the final two years of their respective deals. If the Cowboys were to release Prescott, they would have to do so at the beginning of free agency when other teams still had plenty of salary cap room.
Performance bonuses The high-end four-year extensions signed by quarterbacks over the last couple of years have performance bonuses. Aaron Rodgers’ extension with the Packers is worth a maximum of $138 million through salary escalators and incentives. The maximum value of Wilson’s deal is $146 million because of salary escalators. Wentz’s contract with the Eagles is worth up to $144 million through salary escalators. Goff can make as much as $148 million under his extension thanks to his incentives and salary escalators.
The performance bonuses for those contracts are as follows: Rodgers at $4 million, Wilson at $6 million, Wentz at $12 million and Goff at $14 million. $10 million of salary escalators and/or incentives in 2023 and 2024, Prescott’s last two contract years in a potential extension, to bring the maximum value of the contract to $200 million would be a necessity. Any salary escalators would have to increase the March roster bonuses rather than the base salaries. Triggering an escalator doesn’t necessarily mean that the player will make the additional money, and the escalated amount is rarely guaranteed so a team can still release a player without incurring the financial obligation.
Other contract components There would have to some other component to the contract to make a five-year term more appealing. This could be accomplished with the inclusion of a clause prohibiting the Cowboys from designating Prescott as a franchise or transition player when his contract was up after the 2024 season. The clause would prevent the long, protracted negotiation that has been occurring between the Cowboys and France, as the Cowboys would be forced to put their best foot forward at an earlier time without the use of a franchise or transition tag when Prescott’s contract expired.
It would not be an unprecedented clause for a quarterback. The fully guaranteed three-year contract Kirk Cousins signed with the Vikings in 2018 free agency put limitations on how he could be restricted from entering the open market in 2021 had he not signed an extension this past March. Drew Brees’ most recent contracts with the Saints have had a clause prohibiting the use of franchise or transition designation. When Tom Brady reworked his contract with the Patriots last August, a prohibition clause just like Brees’ was included.
An alternative would be some sort of mechanism where Prescott could void his 2024 contract year. Extraordinary individual achievement and/or team success, such being selected league MVP or Dallas winning the Super Bowl where Prescott is named the game’s MVP, would be a requirement at some time during the first four contract years. Dallas would retain the ability to use a franchise or transition tag on Prescott with voiding of the 2024 contract year.
Final thoughts I wouldn’t expect Dallas to be receptive to giving Prescott a five-year deal at $38 million per year containing upwards to $130 million in guarantees where close to $100 million is fully guaranteed at signing with a way from him to get out a year early. I found during my numerous years as an agent that giving a team two different contract options simultaneously in a difficult negotiation where one choice was designed to be unpalatable could be helpful in getting the discussion to focus more on the desired deal. That would be a motivation for raising this type of five-year deal to the Cowboys. There would be more flexibility on the most important aspects of the contract with a four-year term. A voiding mechanism and a prohibition clause wouldn’t be considerations with a four-year deal.
It would be interesting to see whether Prescott would actually start playing the franchise tag game if Dallas was still insisting on a five-year deal as the July 15 deadline neared without much improvement to the current reported offer. Prescott would have to successfully incur the risk of injury and poor performance again to potentially gain additional leverage with the Cowboys next offseason. It should be much easier for Prescott to bet on himself while making $31.409 million than it was last season when he had only made a little over $2 million from his rookie contract during his first three NFL seasons and had a $2.025 million salary.
A second franchise tag next year at just under $37.7 million could be too cost prohibitive because the 2021 salary cap might be below the current $198.2 million level if the coronavirus pandemic leads to games being played in empty stadiums where league revenues are decreased. Free agency for Prescott in 2021 could be a double-edged sword under this scenario, because a lot of teams would probably be lacking salary cap space. |
WASHINGTON TE THADDEAUS MOSS, the son of Randy, has found a home, for now, in Washington: Washington Redskins rookie tight end Thaddeus Moss wants to do what any other pass-catcher does: create separation. The difference is he wants separation from his father’s Pro Football Hall of Fame legacy.
Moss said he isn’t tired of the questions about his last name and what his father, Randy, accomplished as an NFL receiver. But the younger Moss wants to create his own identity.
“I’m just tired of the comparisons,” he said. “Everybody keeps mentioning my father, mentioning his last name, but just the identity I want to make is my own identity. I look forward to making a name for myself.”
The Redskins signed Moss as an undrafted free agent out of LSU moments after the NFL draft ended. There was a simple reason Moss picked the Redskins: They were the first of three teams to call, dialing him faster than Cincinnati and New England.
Moss called going undrafted “a slap in the face to me.”
“Having picked kickers and punters, special-teams guys getting picked over me, I definitely felt some type of way over it,” he said. “It’s no difference. I’ve always had to prove myself my whole life, having the last name I have. I always had to prove everybody wrong or just prove myself right my whole life.”
Washington presents an opportunity for Moss. The Redskins lack a definite starter at the position but signed veterans Richard Rodgers and Logan Thomas this offseason to pair with another vet, Jeremy Sprinkle.
Moss missed the 2018 season after breaking a bone in his foot, but he caught 47 passes for 570 yards and four touchdowns for LSU in 2019, including two TDs in the national championship game against Clemson. He underwent foot surgery a week after the draft, but he hopes to be ready whenever the Redskins can get back on the field.
As he watched the draft with his dad, sensing that he wouldn’t be picked, Moss knew what to tell his father.
“He was sitting there, not knowing what to say to me,” Moss said. “I said, look, this is no different than what I had to do my whole life. The last name Moss, people have always had their eyes on me and always doubted me. They wanted to see what I can do. They always have expectations. This is no different.
“Having the last name that I have, people think I was handed a lot of things, but it’s the opposite. People ask me what are pros and cons, and that’s definitely a con to it. But I’m looking forward to the opportunity to work for everything, and whatever my NFL career is, you’ll have to respect it because I worked for everything. I wasn’t given anything.”
Even his father, who retired after the 2012 season with 982 receptions and 156 touchdowns, made him work. Randy Moss, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2018, served on the coaching staff for his son’s high school, Victory Christian Center School in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Thaddeus Moss said his father, now an NFL analyst for ESPN, wasn’t always “in his ear” with advice but would provide support and tips when necessary. However, when Randy Moss coached at his son’s school, it meant many car rides — and football talk.
“The critique I get on television is not gonna be worth the critique that I got with him being at the house or being in the car together,” Thaddeus Moss said. “I would hear it from him. So nah, he can only say so much on TV. I’m not worried about that.”
Nor is he worried about any additional attention because of his last name. He might want his own identity, but that doesn’t mean he’d prefer a different last name.
“I embrace it a lot,” Moss said. “I’ve always had a target on my back my whole life growing up. I’ve grown accustomed to it. You use it as fuel.” |
NFC WEST |
SEATTLE Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com stirs things up with his contention that QB RUSSELL WILSON is likely to be traded in the relatively near future: Last week, Chris Simms unwittingly lit a slow-burning fuse while he and I tried to identify during an installment of PFTOT the universe of NFL players who currently are untradable.
Patrick Mahomes? Check. Lamar Jackson? Check. Aaron Donald? Check. Aaron Rodgers, given the crippling cap hit that would apply if traded now? Check.
So how about Russell Wilson?
He has a no-trade clause in his current contract, and there’s a reason for it. As Simms said during the conversation, the Seahawks talked to the Browns about a potential trade that would have sent Wilson to Cleveland for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft.
Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Browns contend that the idea was “floated” conceptually, but that the discussion did indeed happen. At the time, the Seahawks were staring at another extension for Wilson, one that would result a year later in a contract with a new-money value of $35 million per year. And the placement of a no-trade clause in the latest contract was indeed influenced by chatter regarding the potential trade to Cleveland, we’re told.
That said, some who are close enough to the situation to know what may happen believe that Wilson eventually will be traded. Intriguing potential destinations would include, in our view, the Cowboys, Raiders, and Saints. (Or, as Simms says, any team “that doesn’t try to establish the run for three quarters and then ask him to save them in the fourth.”)
Timing becomes a very real question. In 2021, the Seahawks would absorb a $39 million cap charge by trading Wilson, $7 million more than his $32 million cap number if he’s on the team. (He’s due to earn $19 million in 2021.) By 2022, the cap charge falls to $26 million, $11 million less than the cap charge if he’s still on the team.
In 2023, the last year of his current deal, Wilson has a $39 million cap number and a $13 million cap charge if traded.
Still only 31 and determined to play until he’s 45, Wilson may not have to wait until his fifth decade (like Tom Brady) to land in a new place. Some think it’s just a matter of time before he’s traded by a team that talked about trading him just two years ago. |
AFC EAST |
NEW ENGLAND Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com on the void in New England with QB TOM BRADY safely in free Florida: For most of Tom Brady‘s career, Matt Light was protecting him. Now Light is shocked by Brady’s latest move.
Light, an 11-year starter at offensive tackle in New England, told Willie McGinest of NFL Network that Brady in a Buccaneers uniform is going to be hard to get used to.
“It’s mind boggling,” Light said, via MassLive.com. “Being here, we still live in Foxborough and being around the guys, and knowing the media here locally, I think everybody understood that this was a possibility that Tom would be leaving. But no one thought that he would go to Tampa Bay. Matter of fact, most people were holding on to hope he would stay here in New England.”
Nonetheless, Light believes Brady will succeed in Tampa.
“I think what you’re gonna see will be Tom Brady at his best,” Light said. “There’s a lot of doubters. There are a lot of haters. There always will be. Tom is gonna use that to come out on fire, and that’s how I see it.”
Brady in a Buccaneers uniform will be tough for everyone to get used to. But if he plays the way Light thinks he’s going to, he’s going to have plenty of great moments in pewter. |
THIS AND THAT |
CAM ON THE BEACH Dan Graziano of ESPN.com looks at why QB CAM NEWTON does not have a contract. There were legitimate reasons for it to happen and all kinds of ways to see it coming, but if you were surprised by the Carolina Panthers’ decision to release longtime franchise quarterback Cam Newton in March, you’re surely surprised that he still hasn’t signed somewhere else.
Newton turned 31 on Monday, which is by no means an advanced age for an NFL quarterback. He’s a former league MVP who has taken a team to the Super Bowl and, just two years ago, was having one of the better seasons of his career before shoulder and foot injuries derailed him. On résumé alone, he’d qualify as an upgrade for at least half of the NFL’s teams at the quarterback position.
But none of those teams has signed him, and there has been no indication of any serious interest by any team in doing so. Jameis Winston, cut loose by the Buccaneers in favor of Tom Brady, signed a bargain deal to back up Drew Brees in New Orleans. Andy Dalton, released by the Bengals in favor of Joe Burrow, signed with the Cowboys to back up Dak Prescott. Brian Hoyer (New England), Nick Foles (Chicago) and Newton’s former Carolina backup Kyle Allen (Washington) are among the quarterbacks who’ve been sought and acquired by teams this offseason.
It makes no sense if you just stacked up “QB Ability” next to “Teams That Could Use a Cam Newton.” He is the prom king who all of a sudden can’t get a date. The Ferrari left alone in the garage while everyone’s out driving Fords. How could you, if you’re the Bears, or the Jaguars, or literally any team in the AFC East, look at your quarterback depth chart right now and not think signing Newton would make you better?
The answer, of course, is that it’s more complicated than that.
If the Cam Newton of 2015 had been released by the Panthers this offseason, he’d have been signed in less than a minute, to a record-breaking quarterback contract, by one of 12 or 15 teams. But this isn’t 2015, and the issues keeping Newton from signing with a team range from the frustratingly rigid to those that are uniquely 2020:
A tricky offseason for health concerns One of the issues teams cite when discussing the prospect of signing Newton is that there’s no way to know what kind of player they’d be signing. This is a player with as many surgeries as games played over the past 16 months. When teams consider players who are coming off recent surgeries, it becomes especially important to give them physicals. In a case like Newton’s, when you’re talking about a quarterback who has taken 317 more hits than any other since 2011, teams aren’t going to be satisfied with workout videos and third-person medical exams. They’re going to want the doctors they trust, the doctors they’re paying, to check him out with their own eyes. And in the current climate, with the NFL imposing pandemic-related restrictions in line with those in place around the country, in-person physicals are still prohibited.
“You’re certainly not going to sign him sight unseen,” an NFL personnel man said of Newton. “This is a quarterback who has a shoulder injury, right?”
Well … maybe. The shoulder surgery he had following the 2018 season was his second in two years, but the Panthers kept telling everyone all through 2019 that the shoulder was fine and it was his left foot — he underwent surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury in December — that cost him pretty much the entire season. Running has always been a vital part of Newton’s game. No quarterback in NFL history has more games with both a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown than Newton’s 39. If his foot is injured, it stands to reason that he won’t be the same runner he has always been.
“Part of what makes Cam, Cam,” said an official with one NFL team that has been in the veteran quarterback market this offseason, “is that he’s a freak athlete.”
Is he still? And if not, what kind of contract would teams give him? A healthy Newton offers plenty as a passer, but teams are still going to want their own doctors to get a look at that shoulder. And even if the shoulder checks out fine and he can’t run the way he used to run, he’s not “peak” Cam Newton. When you look at it in those terms, it becomes a little bit easier to figure out why a team might prefer a Winston or a Dalton as its backup — especially at the prices for which those two signed.
Which brings us to …
What kind of contract could Newton get? Newton’s last contract extension with the Panthers, signed in 2015, was a five-year deal worth about $103 million. It sounded big at the time, but by today’s standards, the average of $20.6 million a year is more than reasonable for a starting quarterback — especially one who would win the MVP award a few months after signing it, as Newton did. The reason the Panthers cut him wasn’t purely financial. He’d have cost them $19.1 million in non-guaranteed salary and $21.1 million against their salary cap this year: a bargain for a 31-year-old Newton if he’s healthy. The Panthers moved on because, as we’ve already discussed, they weren’t sure he would be healthy, and because they weren’t planning to extend him as they retool things under new coach Matt Rhule.
Newton’s replacement, Teddy Bridgewater, signed for three years and $63 million with $33 million guaranteed. At this point, though he’s far more accomplished than Bridgewater, Newton would have to count himself extraordinarily lucky to get a similar deal. Given the injury questions, he has no shot at the $25 million-a-year numbers Brady and Philip Rivers received. And forget the $91 million in guarantees the Titans gave Ryan Tannehill. No quarterback who’s signing at this point in the cycle is going to sniff the top of the market.
There’s a narrative out there that the Panthers did Newton harm by waiting as long as they did to release him — holding onto him through the first wave of free agency and until after the pandemic imposed restrictions on travel and in-person physicals. But league insiders dispute that notion, saying it was easy to figure out that Newton would be available based on the finances, the health questions and the significant coaching staff changes in Carolina. His contract would have been a lot less financially onerous than the Foles contract. There’s no way the Bears traded for Foles and then, a week later, saw that the Panthers cut Newton and said, “Dang it! We should have waited!” Teams knew Newton was an option and they chose different ones, which means he probably was never going to break the bank on this year’s quarterback market.
And the backup QB market, even for veterans, has been all over the map this offseason. Marcus Mariota got $7.5 million guaranteed to back up (compete with?) Derek Carr in Las Vegas. Winston got $1.1 million guaranteed to backup Brees. Dalton got $3 million to back up Prescott. All of those guys can earn more in incentives depending on how much they actually play and how the team performs when they do, but the range of the deals indicates that the appropriate contract for a veteran quarterback looking to build himself back into a starting role is a moving target.
Plus, teams don’t even know how much appetite Newton would even have for a backup job. Which brings us to …
Would Newton accept a backup role? A large part of Newton’s current problem is that the league is experiencing a bizarre supply-and-demand twist at the quarterback position. It feels as if only a couple of years ago, we were writing stories about a quarterback shortage. Now, after 17 teams have drafted 18 quarterbacks in the first round over the past five years, just about every team feels as if it has its guy. There weren’t a lot of starting quarterback jobs open when this offseason began, and there are fewer now.
There was some industry speculation about Newton to the Chargers, but they like Tyrod Taylor and just drafted Justin Herbert with the sixth pick. Washington made some sense, given that former Panthers coach Ron Rivera is running things there now, but it drafted Dwayne Haskins last year and just signed Allen to back him up. The Patriots say they like Jarrett Stidham and, as of now, don’t have the cap space for Newton. As always, things could change in New England depending on how far Newton’s price drops, but for now, we’re told the Patriots are not planning to go that way. Jacksonville wants to give a real shot to Gardner Minshew, but that’s another team to watch in case things don’t work out with the 2019 sixth-round draft pick.
At this point, there’s no obvious team that would sign Newton and anoint him the starter without conditions. And bringing Newton in as a backup isn’t as easy as it sounds, either, given the way so many NFL teams still view that role.
For example: Newton would fit in Buffalo, where the coach and general manager come from Carolina and starter Josh Allen is a big, mobile quarterback himself. But adding Newton behind a young guy still finding his footing as an NFL starter creates potential issues that organizations and coaching staffs fear. I’m not saying this is specifically the case in Buffalo, but I’m just using the team as a hypothetical example: Bring in Newton as Allen’s backup, and no matter what you say publicly, you’re creating a difficult situation for Allen. Every time he has a bad game, you’ll be dealing with calls from your fan base (and possibly from your own locker room or coaching staff) to start Cam. If you’re developing a young quarterback, teams believe, that’s not necessarily the best way to show you support him.
The same can be said for places like Denver, Cincinnati, Miami, Arizona, both New Yorks and Washington, where teams are trying to build around young guys and want to create as fertile a situation as possible for that young quarterback’s success. Newton, whether you agree or not, is going to be viewed by some teams as a less-than-ideal backup option because of that old NFL buzzword “distraction.” It still exists as an obstacle in situations like this. If Newton’s going to land a backup job right now, it’s probably going to be behind an unassailably secure starter, like the one who’s in front of Winston in New Orleans. So …
What happens now? The sense among people close to this situation is that Newton is in no rush. His best bet at this point is probably to wait things out and see whether a quarterback situation changes, either because of injury or because Plan A doesn’t appear to be working out. Especially with no in-person practices or minicamps to attend, there’s no compelling rush to get into someone’s facility or program and get a jump on things. Whatever current need there is for backup quarterbacks isn’t going to dry up over the next couple of months, and if he waits, he could find himself with one or more starting opportunities than are currently in front of him.
Where this gets interesting is if the season begins and he still doesn’t have a job. Does Newton, who has made more than $120 million in salary in his career, sit out a portion or all of the regular season while he waits for a team to give him the deal and the role he wants? Does he swallow hard and take a backup job?
All that’s clear is that the landscape for Newton is very different from the one he might have expected when the Panthers first put him on the market. And until that landscape changes, he and the rest of us will continue to marvel at the fact that a quarterback as talented and accomplished as he is can’t find a job. |
HALL OF FAME SNUBS Here is a list from The Athletic of who might get into the Hall of Fame next year: Modern-era players
Each year the Pro Football Hall of Fame sets aside five slots for modern-era players and coaches, with the “modern era” designation applying to players whose careers ended within the past 25 years. The 48-member voting panel gathers one day before the Super Bowl to discuss 15 finalists for these five slots, as narrowed down from about 100 initial candidates through preliminary voting that takes place weeks earlier. Once discussions on these 15 finalists are finished, a process that can take most of the day, the Hall conducts an initial vote reducing the 15 finalists to 10. From there, a second round of voting reduces the 10 to five, usually without much additional discussion. Once the final five are known, voters cast “yes” or “no” votes for those five, with the 80 percent “yes” threshold required for enshrinement all but a formality most years.
Having only five slots adds to the value of enshrinement while forcing voters to exclude from their final ballots multiple candidates who they might consider worthy of the honor. This inevitably fosters debate over which finalists were “snubbed” in a given year, but the reality is, every finalist is highly respected by the committee, by definition. The five modern-era players who received the highest percentage of votes in our very unofficial Athletic NFL vote are not Hall of Fame snubs in the purest sense. All have been finalists recently. All five will likely be enshrined in the future. These players are next in line. Elite modern-era candidates such as La’Roi Glover, Darren Woodson and Ricky Watters have never even been finalists. They might be snubs in the truest sense. But if we are drawing our snubs from the pool of modern-era candidates who have been eligible without being enshrined, the players below certainly qualify.
The modern-era players who received more than 30 percent of The Athletic NFL staff vote to be in the Hall of Fame:
John Lynch: Lynch is a seven-time finalist, which makes him among the most highly regarded candidates, but also a frustrating case for supporters who think he should have gotten in already. Fellow modern-era safeties Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed and Brian Dawkins all skated into the Hall without much debate while Lynch has fallen just short of enshrinement. Meanwhile, senior candidates such as Cliff Harris, Donnie Shell, Johnny Robinson and Kenny Easley have dramatically bolstered the Hall’s numbers at the safety position, drawing even more attention to the fact that Lynch remains on the outside. Lynch has not always survived the initial reduction from 15 finalists to 10, raising some fears among supporters that he might never clear the final hurdle. Lynch did make the final 10 this year, which could be a positive indicator for him.
Alan Faneca: Faneca remains highly regarded among Hall voters, to the point where he has been one of the 15 modern-era finalists for five years running. But with fellow offensive linemen Orlando Pace, Kevin Mawae and Steve Hutchinson earning enshrinement ahead of him, and with some other strong offensive line candidates also stuck in a holding pattern, Faneca has waited longer than someone with his credentials might expect to wait. On the positive side for Faneca, he has survived the reduction from 15 finalists to 10 and no one has raised even the slightest objection to him as a candidate. Faneca appears to be inching closer to enshrinement, with a better-than-ever chance to break through now that two other top interior linemen in Mawae and Hutchinson will no longer compete against him for one of the final five modern-era slots. Faneca seems like one of the stronger bets for the Hall in 2021.
Tony Boselli: The future is a little harder to forecast for Boselli in that his career was cut short by injuries and some voters might never support his candidacy over the candidacies of great players who performed twice as long in some cases. All agree that Boselli was among the most dominant offensive tackles in league history when at his best with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the late 1990s. Boselli possessed an almost impossible combination of athletic feet, brutish strength and competitive fire, which famously allowed him to win a playoff matchup against Defensive Player of the Year and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Bruce Smith following the 1996 season. That was a watershed performance for Boselli, one that signaled his arrival as an elite player who presumably would have been a first-ballot selection if he had started more than six seasons. Stressing just how great Boselli truly was — greater than many players who are being enshrined — is the best hope for his candidacy. Former Dolphins center Dwight Stephenson is an apt comparison as a rare talent at his position who played fewer than 100 games, went to the same number of Pro Bowls (five) and was a finalist about the same number of times (five before Stephenson was enshrined, four for Boselli to this point).
Zach Thomas: The former Dolphins linebacker became a Hall of Fame finalist for the first time when voters convened earlier this year. After failing to become a finalist for several years, Thomas survived the initial reduction from 15 finalists down to 10 this year, which would seem to indicate he’ll be back in the room for consideration and could earn enshrinement eventually. Thomas is on a short list of inside linebackers to earn first-team Associated Press All-Pro honors at least five times since the league began changing rules to promote passing in 1978. Some of those other decorated inside linebackers were slam-dunk selections for the Hall already (Jack Lambert, Mike Singletary, Junior Seau and Ray Lewis). Others could be likely selections when they become eligible in the future (Bobby Wagner, Luke Kuechly). Thomas and former 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis, who became eligible for the first time this past year and was not a finalist, might fall somewhere in between.
Torry Holt: Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison and Holt are the only players to post at least eight consecutive seasons with 1,100 yards receiving. Rice did it nine times in a row. The streak was eight seasons for Harrison and Holt. That type of consistent production requires staying power within a prolific passing offense. Holt, who ranked 10th in all-time receiving yards at his retirement following the 2009 season, certainly had that. His candidacy appears to be trending positively after Holt became one of the 15 modern-era finalists for the first time this past year (he did not make it to the final 10, however). Holt’s candidacy could have been complicated in the past by the presence of so many other elite players from the “Greatest Show on Turf” offenses that set records two decades ago. Now that fellow “Greatest Show” alums Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Orlando Pace and Isaac Bruce have earned enshrinement, Holt could be next in line. There is some logic to the process as those other four all-time great St. Louis Rams began their careers before Holt arrived as a first-round choice in 1999. Bruce’s enshrinement this year leaves the spotlight for Holt. His time could be approaching.
Reggie Wayne: Wayne ranked eighth in receiving yards upon retirement following the 2014 season. The seven players ahead of him on that list have all been enshrined in Canton (Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Isaac Bruce, Tony Gonzalez, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison). So have the two players who ranked immediately behind Wayne at that time (James Lofton, Cris Carter). Wayne’s turn is almost assuredly coming at some point in the future. He was a finalist this year, the first time he was eligible. That was a positive sign. Many other highly productive receivers have earned enshrinement eventually after falling short mostly because there were only five modern-era slots available each year, not necessarily because voters thought these receivers were not worthy. If Wayne must overcome anything to hasten his enshrinement, it could be the perception that he played a supporting role to Harrison in an offense that generated prolific statistical production simply because Peyton Manning was the quarterback behind center.
Also receiving votes (less than 30%): Shaun Alexander, Willie Anderson, Carl Banks, Ronde Barber, Cornelius Bennett, Lomas Brown, LeRoy Butler, DeRon Cherry, Eddie George, Chris Hinton, Olin Kreutz, Clay Matthews Sr., Karl Mecklenberg, Sam Mills, Leslie O’Neal, Simeon Rice, Richard Seymour, Neal Smith, Steve Tasker, Hines Ward, Ricky Watters, Richmond Webb, Patrick Willis, Steve Wisniewski, Darren Woodson.
The DB is disappointed not to see Ronde Barber, LeRoy Butler and Richard Seymour on this list. Boselli, who recently survived a severe bout with Wuhan COVID-19, is a popular figure, but his career was really only six productive seasons.
Senior candidates The Pro Football Hall of Fame has a process and a committee for older players. After a player’s career has been completed for 25 years, he goes from being a modern-era candidate to a senior candidate. A nine-man senior committee decides on 15 senior finalists each year. Then five of the senior committee members vote to nominate a candidate or candidates to the full 48-man selection committee, which votes whether or not to induct. This year was a special circumstance, as a Blue Ribbon centennial committee voted to induct 10 senior candidates (as well as three contributors and two coaches) without the input of the 48-man selection committee.
The senior players who received more than 30 percent of The Athletic NFL staff vote:
Cliff Branch: A world-class sprinter, Branch averaged 17.3 yards per catch in his career. He was a first-team All-Pro three straight times and started on three Super Bowl winners for the Raiders. Branch was known for his ability to stretch the field and open things up for Fred Biletnikoff, Dave Casper and the Raiders’ run game. During a seven-year stretch from 1974-80, Branch led the NFL with 6,047 receiving yards. Branch rose up in the postseason, and at the time of his retirement, he held NFL records for most catches and yards in the playoffs.
Drew Pearson: The former Cowboys wide receiver was stunned not to be included in the Blue Ribbon centennial class, as were many of his supporters. A first-team all-decade performer from the 1970s, Pearson is known as one of the great clutch receivers of all-time. Pearson wasn’t as flashy as some of the other receivers from his era, but he was an excellent route runner who consistently produced. He played on three Super Bowl teams.
Roger Craig: He was one of the best pass-catching running backs of all-time, though he ranks only 44th in career rushing yards. In the 1980s, Craig helped make the 49ers’ West Coast offense elite. Craig was the first NFL player to have 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He was named to the 1980s all-decade team and was the 1988 NFL offensive player of the year.
Ken Anderson: Statistically, Anderson is off the charts. The former Bengal is the only quarterback in history to win back-to-back passing titles in two different decades (1974-75 and 1981-82). He also is one of only five players to win at least four passing titles. He also was voted NFL MVP and comeback player of the year in 1981, when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. Upon retirement, he ranked sixth all-time in passing yards.
Joe Jacoby: The offensive tackle and charter member of the Hogs was an anchor for the Redskins’ great running games in the 1980s, often leading the way on Joe Gibbs’ “counter trey.” He blocked for three different quarterbacks on Super Bowl winners. Jacoby also was voted to four straight Pro Bowls.
Others receiving votes (less than 30%): Roger Brown, Joey Browner, Lavern Dilweg, Joe Fortunato, Randy Gradishar, L.C. Greenwood, Chuck Howley, Mike Kenn, Jim Marshall, Tommy Nobis, Jay Hilgenberg, Ken Riley, Andy Russell, Dale Shofner, Jack Tatum, Everson Walls.
Dick Vermeil turned three struggling franchises into contenders, and one into a Super Bowl champion. (Bob Leverone / The Sporting News via Getty Images) Coaching candidates Don Coryell: By leaving Don Coryell out of the Hall of Fame, once again, voters have shown they value wins — particularly Super Bowl wins —over all else. Coryell never took the teams he coached (the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Chargers) to the Super Bowl, but his candidacy is based on his immense influence on modern NFL offenses. Coryell was an innovator. He transformed the NFL’s passing game by inventing the passing route tree, implementing a one-running back offense and utilizing the tight end as a receiver. Coryell’s offenses in San Diego led the NFL in passing seven of the eight seasons he coached there, and several of the players from the Air Coryell years — notably quarterback Dan Fouts and tight end Kellen Winslow — are in the Hall of Fame. Coryell was a five-time finalist for the Hall of Fame (2010, 2017-2019, 2020’s Centennial Class), so it’s reasonable to argue he’s the biggest snub on the list of coaches.
Tom Flores: The strength of Flores’ candidacy for the Hall of Fame is his Super Bowl success. He owns four rings — one as a player (backup quarterback for the Chiefs), one as an assistant on John Madden’s staff, and two he won as the Raiders’ head coach. He became the first minority head coach to win a title in Super Bowl XV.
As a head coach, Flores had a winning record against Don Coryell (12-5 in their years as AFC West rivals), and a 19-13 record against coaches already in the Hall of Fame (including 6-0 against Miami’s Don Shula).
Flores had been a finalist for the Hall’s 2019 class and did not get in, and was then passed over in the Centennial Class as well.
Mike Holmgren: In 17 years as a head coach for the Packers and Seattle, Holmgren amassed a resume comparable to, if not better than, other enshrined coaches like Tony Dungy and Bill Cowher.
Hired to rebuild the Packers, Holmgren led Green Bay to a Super Bowl championship in 1997, the franchise’s first title since the Lombardi era, and took the Packers back to the Super Bowl a year later.
He was then hired to rebuild the Seattle Seahawks, and he ended Seattle’s 10-year playoff drought in 1999, his first season in Seattle. In 2005, he led the Seahawks to an NFC title (Seattle lost that Super Bowl to Pittsburgh.)
Dick Vermeil: Vermeil is the great rebuilder. During a coaching career that spanned three decades, he turned three struggling franchises into contenders — and one into a Super Bowl champion.
The Eagles were coming off nine consecutive non-winning seasons when Vermeil was hired in 1976; he had them in the Super Bowl for the first time ever in 1980.
The Rams were another reclamation project when Vermeil was hired in 1996; his 1999 Greatest Show on Turf team won Super Bowl XXXIV. He was hired for one more rebuild in Kansas City in 2001, and in 2003 won 13 games in Kansas City.
Vermeil can’t match the winning percentage of other coaches in Canton (or even on this list) but the degree of difficulty with the teams he turned into contenders warrants him consideration. Unlike other coaches on this list, Vermeil only coached one truly great quarterback (Kurt Warner in St. Louis) and showed he could build winning teams in multiple ways.
Others receiving votes (less than 30%): Chuck Knox, Buddy Parker, Dan Reeves, Marty Schottenheimer. |
BRANDON BROWNER One of the members of the Legion of Boom is behind bars, even with many inmates being released out of fears they might perish from Wuhan COVID-19. Michael Shawn-Dugar of The Athletic: “Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday to 2-5. Happy birthday to youuu.”
It was the final week of March 2018. Sherman had recently signed with the rival 49ers after being cut by the Seahawks. Chancellor was battling a neck injury that would end his football career that summer. Thomas was in a contract dispute that would ultimately end his Seattle tenure.
Then there was Browner, the fourth member of the original “Legion of Boom” secondary who was floundering in his post-football life.
Browner was in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, simultaneously celebrating Sherman’s 30th birthday and his wedding before a group of 180 friends and family, including nearly half of the starters from the Seahawks’ Super Bowl 48 championship roster. The weather was sunny and relaxing, perfect for the occasion. The former teammates reminisced about their playing days over drinks by the pool or while lounging at the beach.
The day of the wedding was one to remember. The guys hung out in Sherman’s room, holding court in a wide-ranging discussion — religion, marriage, children. It was a deeper dive into one another’s lives than they were used to; Sherman calls it one of the best nights of his life.
In his five-year NFL career, Browner made the Pro Bowl, won Super Bowl rings under Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick and was named a defensive captain in his lone season with the Saints, but his closest friends were still his LOB co-founders. During a golf cart ride from the beach to the hotel, Browner turned to defensive end Cliff Avril and said, “I needed this, man.”
What he needed, even if Browner couldn’t articulate it, was football. He needed the game to contain the aggression and desperation that characterized him as a player. He also needed to be back with his boys, to be part of a team.
“I think a lot of us were feeling like that,” Avril said. “That camaraderie, feeling like you’re back in the locker room again.”
But by that week in March 2018, the violence that defined Browner’s career had escaped the confines of football. He already had been arrested for drug possession and for threatening his girlfriend, the mother of two of his children. In the months that followed, he would be arrested twice more, the second time for a horrific crime: He broke into his girlfriend’s home, refused to let her leave, then attempted to smother her in the carpet. – – – Browner grew up with 15 brothers and sisters in Pacoima, Calif., a neighborhood in the northern San Fernando Valley notorious for gang activity. Many of his family members were, according to people in the know, “in the life.” At one point, Browner said, his dad, little brother, sister, cousin and stepdad were all in prison. – – – Prior to Super Bowl 49, Browner, then with New England, told ESPN’s Josina Anderson he would instruct his Patriots teammates to attack Sherman’s injured elbow and Thomas’ injured shoulder.
“Try to break it if you can,” Browner said. “You’re going to be my best friend after the game, but at the end of the day, I know you want that Super Bowl just as bad as I do.”
Sherman understood what Browner meant and responded to his former teammate via text: “Lol.”
Before the game’s decisive play, with Seattle facing second-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 26 seconds left in the fourth quarter, Browner recognized what was coming and positioned himself behind teammate Malcolm Butler to thwart the upcoming pick play. At the snap, Browner practiced what he preached — put your hands on people — jamming receiver Jermaine Kearse at the line of scrimmage and clearing the path for Butler’s game-clinching interception.
Moments after the pick, he ran over to Sherman. The pair were photographed on the field, their faces pressed against each other in what looked like a heated exchange. But when asked what he said to his former teammate, Browner answered, “I love you, boy.”
Browner returned to Pacoima and held free summer camps for children in the neighborhood. Chancellor and Sherman were special guests. He began the process of starting up a youth football league.
In 2014, Browner bought a 3,668-square-foot home in Pomona, about an hour east of where he grew up. In the spring of 2016, one year after signing a three-year, $15 million deal with New Orleans, he bought his mother a house. “It took me a while, but I accomplished goal No. 1 from day one,” he announced. Shortly after, his third child, a daughter, was born. Browner spent 2015 with the Saints, where he was voted a defensive captain, but was released following the season. He attempted a comeback with the Seahawks that offseason but was among the team’s final cuts.
By the start of the 2016 season, he was out of football.
Every player’s career has to end; rarely is the transition easy. For Browner, it had perhaps a higher degree of difficulty. Several former Seahawks made their homes in the Seattle area, where they formed a support system for one another. But Browner headed back to California, where relationships with his family were strained.
“He was trying to find himself, but he just lacked the family,” Sherman said. “We’re family. We watch out for each other, and he didn’t have that anymore.”
“Nobody can relate to what you’re going through with the transition — or the denial — of your career being over with,” Avril said. “Trying to fit into the real world, trying to find who you are outside of football. It’s just a wide range of different thoughts guys struggle with because they’ve been doing this their whole life. If you can find that community of people who have gone through that … it allows you to be able to vent, and people understand what you’re going through.”
But back home, Browner spiraled. He was arrested for cocaine possession in May 2017. Four months later, he was arrested again. His girlfriend sought a restraining order against him, alleging he had assaulted her — leaving her with black eyes, a broken tailbone and a busted eardrum — and threatened to kill her. In June 2018, Browner was sentenced to three years’ probation and served two days in jail after a no-contest plea to battery and child endangerment. He was also ordered to take a 52-week domestic violence treatment program.
But just weeks later, police responded to reports of a man attempting to enter Browner’s girlfriend’s home in La Verne, Calif., through a locked window. Police say Browner stole her $20,000 Rolex watch, threatened to kill her, prevented her from leaving the house and attempted to smother her. Browner left the home before the police arrived, but later that day, he was arrested in nearby Azusa. He was charged with attempted murder, robbery, burglary, false imprisonment and child endangerment.
The next day, Browner’s arrest was national news. His teammates were shocked.
He pleaded no contest to attempted murder and child endangerment and in December 2018 and was sentenced to eight years in prison. A judge denied Browner’s attempt to have the decision vacated in February. On March 9, he was sent to Wasco State Prison, where he is inmate No. BL7078.
Browner’s aggression and desperation had helped him become a key player in one of the NFL’s most iconic position groups. He won a Super Bowl and made millions. His family is broken. He has three young children. He is eligible for parole in 2024. |