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QB THOUGHTS
From Matt Bowen of ESPN.com:
It was a busy 2021 offseason of NFL quarterback movement, with the Rams and Lions kicking things off in January with a swap of signal-callers and the NFL draft in April featuring five first-round QBs.
By my count, 10 NFL teams brought in veterans who are likely to start immediately or picked a rookie in Round 1. (I’m not including the Saints or Eagles, who will have new starters who were on the roster a year ago.) With the Bears doing both of those things, that gives us 11 potential starting quarterbacks on new teams for the upcoming season.
How do all 11 fit with their new teams? Some are in better situations than others. Matthew Stafford, for instance, will be coached by a tremendous game-planner in Sean McVay in L.A., and he’ll have some solid playmakers around him. Jared Goff, who was sent to Detroit in the other half of the trade, isn’t so lucky, as the Lions completely overhauled their wide receiver corps.
Let’s get into these fits more. I’ll tell you what all 11 quarterbacks do best, how they could mesh in their offense in Year 1, and what each team could do to help their new guy under center. We’ll start with Stafford, who never won a playoff game in Detroit but has high aspirations with the Rams:
The veteran QBs who changed teams
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
How he got here: Traded from Detroit to Los Angeles in exchange for quarterback Jared Goff, a 2021 third-round pick, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023.
What he does best: Stafford’s ability to navigate the pocket and create off schedule are tremendous, but natural arm talent is his best trait. Stafford can challenge all three levels of the field — throwing from multiple platforms/arm angles — and he’ll add a new dimension to this Rams offense.
The fit: In Sean McVay’s passing game, Stafford will benefit from the defined throws on both play-action and dropback concepts. He can target Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp on middle-of-the-field Hi-Lo reads, while being schemed up to drive the ball into the boundary on leveled, flood concepts. Plus, with the addition of veteran DeSean Jackson and rookie slot man Tutu Atwell — two receivers with legit top-end speed — the Rams should be much more vertical in the passing game. That caters to Stafford’s arm talent on isolation one-on-one matchups and the shot play throws off play-action/max protection.
With the Lions last season, Stafford tied for seventh in the NFL with 25 first downs on throws of 20 or more air yards. And that was without his top deep threat, Kenny Golladay, for much of the season. Stafford can throw it deep — with accuracy.
How the Rams can help him: The misdirection, movement and creativity of McVay’s offense will create more open-window throws and explosive-play opportunities for Stafford in 2021. And with the run game impact in L.A., Stafford can be a much more efficient passer. This has a chance to be one of the league’s best offenses.
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
How he got here: Traded from Philadelphia to Indianapolis for a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 conditional second-round pick.
What he does best: We can point to the physical tools of Wentz inside and outside of the pocket, but I like his ability to drive the ball on second- and third-level throws. That’s where he will cut it loose as a passer. Wentz had a down season for the Eagles in 2020, but he has stellar physical traits and is only 28. He’s also going to play behind one of the league’s best offensive lines in Indianapolis after he was sacked 50 times last season.
The fit: This is an easy scheme fit for Wentz to work in Frank Reich’s system. There is familiarity here for both sides — Reich was Wentz’s offensive coordinator in Philly in 2016 and 2017 — which will allow Wentz to see things faster from the pocket. Remember how I mentioned Wentz’s issues taking sacks? He was sacked 14 times on play-action snaps last season, which ranked last in the league and was three more than the next quarterback (Daniel Jones). He should be able to see it faster in a system with which he’s familiar.
With the Colts, Reich can scheme Michael Pittman Jr. on crossers, open up middle-of-the-field windows for T.Y. Hilton on deep in-breakers and add more vertical throws given Wentz’s ability to attack down the field. Plus, with scripted man coverage beaters out of 12 personnel, Reich can set up Wentz to get the ball out with speed to create catch-and-run opportunities.
How the Colts can help him: With the run-game production in Indianapolis, Wentz can be set up on early down play-action. Be aggressive here and put the quarterback in a position to throw the deep crossers. And with a strong interior presence on the Colts’ offensive line, Wentz will have the ability to move inside the pocket to reset his window when he works to his second and third reads.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
How he got here: Traded from Los Angeles to Detroit, along with multiple draft picks, for quarterback Matthew Stafford.
What he does best: Goff is a productive, rhythm thrower when the run and pass game are married together — in a play-action based offense. We saw that in 2018, when he had 32 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions and the Rams made it to Super Bowl LIII. He struggled the past two seasons, however, throwing 29 interceptions and averaging only 7.3 yards per attempt.
The fit: With new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, the Lions should bring a run-heavy approach in 2021, which sets up Goff on timing concepts off play-action. And just like we saw in L.A., Goff can find both second- and third-level windows. That will create volume opportunities for tight end T.J. Hockenson, while veteran free-agent additions at wide receiver — Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman and Kalif Raymond — can be schemed open on in-breakers and scripted deep shots. Rookie third-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown adds another element to the offense, given his linear, smooth stride to create separation. The Lions also feature two backs with pass-catching traits in D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.
The reality is that the Lions don’t have great weapons overall, and if they’re going to win a few games, they need to run the ball well and for Goff to stay clean in the pocket.
How the Lions can help him: In addition to the early down play-action throws, Lynn can use more empty sets and pre-snap motion with Goff. That would allow Goff to identify coverage and get the ball out with speed from clean pockets to work inside combinations in the quick game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team
How he got here: Signed a one-year, $10 million contract as a free agent.
What he does best: Even at age 38, Fitzpatrick has the movement ability to extend plays, but he’s also fearless as a thrower, with an aggressive and confident style to challenge defenses in the vertical pass game. He’s going to throw some picks, but he’ll also hit on more than a few 50-plus-yard scores, as he showed the past few seasons in Miami and Tampa Bay.
The fit: Fitzpatrick can throw the skinny posts and the deep in-breakers in Scott Turner’s offensive system, which has an upgraded core of wide receivers. We know Terry McLaurin is a nuanced route runner, but Washington also added veteran Curtis Samuel, a versatile target in the middle of the field, along with the deep-ball ability of rookie third-round pick Dyami Brown. Plus, with the development of tight end Logan Thomas and two dynamic pass-catching backs in Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic, this offense is set up to be much more explosive.
How Washington can help him: Fitzpatrick is more than willing to attack tight windows as a passer on mid-level throws and vertical targets. However, his aggressive style can lead to adverse situations. Here, Turner can use formation, alignment and motion to give Fitzpatrick clear coverage indicators, while scheming open middle-of-the-field targets and positive matchups to give Fitzpatrick more rhythm throws. Washington has the defense to stay in games, too, so it’s important that the quarterback takes care of the football.
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
How he got here: Traded from the New York Jets to Carolina for a 2021 sixth-round pick, a 2022 second-round pick and a 2022 fourth-round pick.
What he does best: Darnold needs to see it faster as a pocket thrower, but his ability to play outside of structure is still one of his top traits. That allows him to escape pressure and deliver the ball on the move.
The fit: In a heavily schemed system in Carolina, offensive coordinator Joe Brady can set the table for Darnold to get the ball out quickly. See it and trust it. That means more leveled reads on shallows and drive routes, slot matchups and the deep overs to open windows. With the Panthers drafting rookie Terrace Marshall Jr., they have size and route running to create interior one-on-ones, which complements veteran wideouts DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. And with Darnold’s arm talent, the Panthers can stretch defenses vertically, in addition to the receiving matchups Christian McCaffrey can create from backfield or flexed alignments.
How the Panthers can help him: Brady’s scheme will allow Darnold to throw with both timing and anticipation. The key here is the development and coaching, however. The concerns on Darnold’s throwing mechanics from his time at USC are still in question. Darnold ranked near the bottom of the league last season in QBR (44.0), completion percentage (59.8%) and yards per attempt (6.6), but he will have much better weapons around him in Carolina. Brady will put him in a position to succeed, but Darnold, who turns 24 in June, is the one making the throws. If Brady and his staff can sync up Darnold’s upper and lower body — behind a stronger offensive line than the one he had in New York — the Panthers’ new quarterback will have the opportunity to produce.
Andy Dalton, Chicago Bears
How he got here: Signed a one-year, $10 million contract as a free agent.
What he does best: I’m including Dalton in this list because Chicago signed him with the intention of starting him, even though he’ll now compete with first-round pick Justin Fields. The veteran has the ability to produce in Matt Nagy’s offense, distributing the ball like a point guard as a timing thrower.
The fit: The scheme fit works for Dalton, who could start multiple early-season games for the Bears until Fields is ready to play. When throwing on rhythm, Dalton can deliver the ball with accuracy in the quick game. He’s an efficient passer who can also be schemed off play-action to make third-level throws. While Dalton lacks high-level traits, he sees things quickly and gets the ball out on time. And that creates opportunities for the Bears to marry the run and pass game together with Dalton — if the veteran is named the Week 1 starter in September.
How the Bears can help him: Nagy can run outside zone with David Montgomery and scheme throws for Dalton. In addition to the quick-game reads we discussed, Nagy will have to set up Dalton on play-action passes to create second-level windows. That’s where the veteran can stick his back foot in the ground and deliver the ball to both Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney with room to operate after the catch.
The first-round picks who will play early
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
How he got here: Selected No. 1 overall in the draft.
What he does best: In addition to the high-level throwing and movement traits that popped on his college tape, Lawrence has the ability to process with speed. He’s an intelligent decision-maker who can read plays from the pocket — both pre- and post-snap — to work to his second and third options. Lawrence has multiple high-end traits, and there’s a reason he was the top pick.
The fit: I expect the Jags to use the play-action passing game with Lawrence under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. You’ll see schemed concepts to throw the crossers and in-breakers to free-agent addition Marvin Jones, who has some catch-and-run ability. Plus, with a motion/movement player in Laviska Shenault, Bevel can create high-percentage passes for Lawrence on screens and unders, in addition to the boundary one-on-ones with DJ Chark. And let’s not forget about rookie running back Travis Etienne, who can be deployed like Alvin Kamara or Aaron Jones in the pass game to create mismatches. This has a chance to be a fun offense in 2021.
How the Jags can help him: By using the run-game element to set the table. That translates on both play-action and run-pass option throws for the 6-foot-6 Lawrence, who can also be schemed on designed rushes. And with his ability to navigate and process inside the pocket, the Jags can give him multiple progression reads on dropback concepts.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
How he got here: Selected at No. 2 overall in the draft.
What he does best: Wilson’s ability to make second-reaction plays translates to today’s pro game. He has a loose arm with a quick release that allows him to throw from any platform. And with the movement skills to escape pressure or extend the pocket, he can create outside of structure.
The fit: In what should be a heavily defined passing offense under new coordinator Mike LaFleur — one that features play-action concepts off the outside zone run game — Wilson can act as a ball distributor in New York. He can throw the verticals to second-year wideout Denzel Mims, attack the middle of the field with free-agent addition Corey Davis and cater to the playmaking traits of rookie Elijah Moore, who can be schemed to get free access off the ball on slot targets or quick hitters. Moore has the toughness and the open-field juice to move past veteran Jamison Crowder as the inside receiver for the Jets.
Wilson was fantastic on deep throws last season, completing 62% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield, which was the highest single-season mark of any FBS passer since the metric was first tracked in 2011.
How the Jets can help him: By using the pre- and post-snap movement in LaFleur’s offense to give Wilson coverage indicators, while also maximizing his ability outside of the pocket. Think movement concepts — off misdirection — that put Wilson in a position to throw with both rhythm and timing to attack all areas of the field as a passer.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
How he got here: Selected No. 3 overall in the draft after San Francisco traded multiple picks (No. 12 overall, a 2022 first-rounder, a 2022 third-rounder and a 2023 first-rounder) to Miami to move up nine spots.
What he does best: Lance is a physical dual-threat quarterback, but his decision-making stands out on his college tape. He’s smart with the ball and efficient throwing in pro-level concepts. He threw 28 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in 2019, and he has a high ceiling in today’s schemed NFL passing game.
The fit: While the rookie is expected to sit behind veteran Jimmy Garoppolo to start the season, it’s easy to see the fit in Kyle Shanahan’s system. Lance brings pro-ready play-action mechanics. He’s a detailed ball handler who can see things quickly to attack intermediate and deep targets. That meshes with Shanahan’s offensive structure on the glance routes and in-breakers to Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, plus the schemed throws to tight end George Kittle. And with Lance’s upper-tier arm talent, the 49ers will be able to script more downfield shots, in addition to the added element he brings to Shanahan’s playbook on designed carries.
How the 49ers can help him: Shanahan can give Lance defined reads on layered throws, while also leaning on boot concepts to open up windows to crossers and verticals. The rookie has experience running play-action out of 21 and 12 personnel in college, and the strong run game impact in San Francisco will create even more opportunities for Shanahan to scheme for Lance. This is an excellent fit.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
How he got here: Selected No. 11 overall in the draft after Chicago traded multiple picks (No. 20 overall, a 2021 fifth-rounder, a 2022 first-rounder and a 2022 fourth-rounder) to the Giants to move up nine spots.
What he does best: Fields brings a playmaking element to the Chicago offense, with the deep-ball accuracy to challenge defenses vertically. He’s a decisive and aggressive thrower who can drive the ball over the top with location — from both inside and outside of the pocket.
The fit: This Bears offense under Nagy can expand to fit the playmaking ability and dual-threat talent of Fields. The Bears can scheme more verticals to set up the deep ball speed of wide receiver Darnell Mooney. They can isolate Allen Robinson II to throw one-on-one balls or bump him to the slot to give Fields an inside matchup on RPOs and quick game concepts. Given Field’s athleticism, Nagy can get the rookie quarterback on the edge with movement concepts. Fields has the physical traits to take over games, and Nagy can scheme for him in an offense that is desperate for explosive play juice.
How the Bears can help him: When Fields is ready to start, the Bears can give him more defined throws and matchups off pre-snap movement to stretch defenses both horizontally and vertically. But as he progresses with game reps, we will see the rookie’s ability to process the entire field as a pocket thrower, create off-script and threaten defenses on designed carries. The reality is that Fields is Chicago’s future and Dalton is just a stopgap, so expect Fields to get opportunities to win the job early.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
How he got here: Selected No. 15 overall in the draft.
What he does best: Jones lacks high-end movement ability, but we can see the ball distributor traits on his Alabama film. A pocket thrower who wins with accuracy and location, Jones can be schemed on timing concepts to target second-level windows. He completed a whopping 77.4% of his passes last season, the highest in a single season in FBS history.
The fit: Cam Newton is expected to start the season as the No. 1 in New England, but we know Jones is a fit for the Patriots’ recently upgraded passing offense. With two matchup players at tight end — Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith — offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can create windows in the middle of the field for Jones. He can hit the back foot and deliver a “runner’s ball” on seams and crossers. And with the addition of Nelson Agholor, Jones will have a vertical target on schemed over routes and go balls. Plus, with Jones’ ability to process the game, the Patriots can run their staple concepts, which include running back James White in the route tree. The weapons here in 2021 are much better than the ones Newton had last season.
How the Patriots can help him: With the run game element in New England, plus the ability to lean heavily on 12 personnel, the Patriots and McDaniels can use formation and alignment with two tight ends on the field to give Jones pre-snap indicators. That will allow Jones to read it out quickly and utilize his accuracy as a thrower on multiple progression concepts.
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