The Daily Briefing Thursday, May 4, 2023

The TV coverage of the draft oozes with unbridled enthusiasm about each and every first-round pick. The reality is far less positive.

Case in point — of the 32 first-round picks selected in 2020, only 12 fifth-year options were exercised.

The not-dirty dozen consists of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (No. 1); Giants tackle Andrew Thomas (No. 4); Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5); Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (No. 6); Panthers defensive tackle Derrick Brown (No. 7); Browns tackle Jedrick Wills (No. 10); Buccaneers tackle Tristan Wirfs (No. 13); Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy (No. 15); Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (No. 16); Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb (No. 17); Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson (No. 22); and 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk (No. 25).

None of those 12 players have received their second contracts, yet. Each should, especially since they’ve necessarily outperformed a wage-scale rookie deal kept low to protect the system against busts.

In 2020, the first-round ultimately had 19 busts. In most cases, injury was the culprit.

The wildcard is Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who hasn’t played enough to be a boom or a bust. The Packers and Love worked out a one-year extension, aimed at achieving a win-win for player and team.

Since the fifth-year option arrived as part of the 2011 CBA, the 2020 class sets the new low point with only 12 exercised. Because the option is now fully guaranteed at exercise, teams are being more careful than ever.

Also, the 2020 pre-draft process was disrupted by the pandemic. After the Scouting Combine, things pretty much ended until the virtual draft happened in late April.

MINNESOTA

QB KIRK COUSINS is focused on earning a new deal from the Vikings.  Alec Lewis of The Athletic:

Maybe you know the name Keith Nichol. If you are a Michigan State football fan, it’s likely. If not, well, here’s some background.

Back in 2006, the Spartans secured the services of a four-star quarterback recruit from the west side of the state. It was Nichol, a dual-threat option who was touted as the heir apparent to Drew Stanton, another local kid who would elevate the school’s football program.

Nichol committed to Michigan State during his junior season. Newspaper columnists penned stories on the camps Nichol was attending, the Elite 11 invites and more. The entire fan base awaited his arrival. But then, in the aftermath of head coach John L. Smith’s firing, Nichol pulled his commitment.

The decision left the new staff scrambling. But soon after, newly hired coach Mark Dantonio added a relatively unknown, cerebral signal caller from small-town Holland, Mich., named Kirk Cousins. The day Cousins committed, this was the first sentence in the “Lansing State Journal” story: “Michigan State didn’t get the quarterback it originally hoped for from the west side of the state.”

Later in that same story, Cousins said, “I’m not considered to be Nichol’s caliber. He’s a four-star recruit, and I’m a two-star recruit. I’m not as thick; I’m not as fast. But I’ve been in camps with Keith, and I feel like my ball comes off my hand just as hard and fast as his.”

More than 15 years since that sequence of events, Cousins has not forgotten.

On Wednesday, speaking to the media for the first time this offseason, the 34-year-old Minnesota Vikings quarterback was asked how he feels about the fact that he and the Vikings have not yet agreed on an extension. The two sides did broach the subject in recent months, but their differing wants — the Vikings want flexibility, while Cousins is seeking security — resulted in nothing more than a simple restructure with Cousins’ contract still set to void at the end of 2023.

Faced with another “contract season,” which would be his fourth since he entered the NFL, Cousins said his mindset mirrors how he has viewed so many of his previous football experiences, including the circumstances around his college recruitment.

“I go back to how this has kind of been a part of my story,” he said.

Wednesday, Cousins specifically named his hometown newspaper, the “Holland Sentinel,” and mentioned how, during his high school career, reporters questioned him about his approach to playing despite zero scholarship offers.

“I learned that you’ve gotta focus on winning football games,” Cousins said. “If you win and do your part and put your work in, the rest will take care of itself.”

He maintained that perspective throughout a collegiate arc that began with a redshirt and finished with a record-breaking senior sendoff. When he was first fighting for a spot in the NFL, Cousins hit the main clichés. He stayed in the present. He focused on succeeding one play at a time. The result was an opportunity with Washington.

Again, Cousins was not the clear-cut No. 1 quarterback option for Washington. He was drafted in the fourth round — even though the team had already picked Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, another quarterback, with the second pick.

“Ownership, everybody liked Robert a lot better than (Kirk),” then-coach Jay Gruden said last year. “He kind of felt slighted in that regard. He never got a chance to compete.”

From 2015 to 2017, that chance arrived. Still, Washington never committed long-term. A year after he was fired in 2018, former Washington GM Scot McCloughan said of Cousins: “I don’t see special.” Gruden said Washington’s front office had communicated that sentiment with Cousins’ agent.

That, of course, paved Cousins’ way to Minnesota.

Last spring, Cousins, who had agreed to a one-year extension with Minnesota, said bluntly: “My mindset was really to be a Viking. I would like to retire as a Viking, and so I would like to play my way into that if you will. I know I’ve got to earn the right to do that.”

Working with a new head coach and play caller in Kevin O’Connell, Cousins learned an entirely new offense, which even he admitted did not feel comfortable about midway through the year. All the while, he commanded the Vikings to multiple fourth-quarter comebacks en route to a 13-win season. And even in the wild-card loss to the Giants, Cousins completed 31 of 39 passes for 273 yards and two touchdowns.

That’s not to say the Vikings quarterback was perfect. His overall expected points added per dropback, which accounts for a quarterback’s efficiency, was the third lowest of his career. He struggled in two prime-time games — specifically, the “Monday Night Football” matchup against the Eagles and the afternoon showcase against the Cowboys.

Accounting for Cousins’ age and the challenges of building a team with a hefty quarterback contract, the Vikings set limits on where they would go with an extension. Cousins, meanwhile, wanted certain things, too. The two sides have yet to complete a deal, which is where we find ourselves.

After last weekend’s draft, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said, “Kirk doesn’t need to show anything to me. Kirk has played football at a high level before I got to the Minnesota Vikings. Last year, we won 13 games. I don’t know what he would need to prove to me or anybody else.”

Meanwhile, Cousins reiterated Wednesday that he still wants to wear purple and gold for the long term.

“I want to be in Minnesota,” he said. “That’s kind of a no-brainer. So, hopefully, we can earn the right to do that. I’ve always said that. When I say I would like to be in Minnesota, there are a lot of things I’d like to have. You’ve got to go earn it.”

In many ways, that one line — “you’ve got to go out and earn it” — defines what has made Cousins who he is.

Remember Keith Nichol? The quarterback who decommitted from Michigan State? He attended Oklahoma, transferred to Michigan State after a season and competed with Cousins for the Spartans’ quarterback job in 2009. Cousins ultimately won the starting role, so Nichol became a receiver, and the two would later connect on a Hail Mary against Wisconsin that won Michigan State a share of the Big Ten title.

All these years later, Cousins is not competing for a starter’s spot but vying to prove he is worth believing in for the long term. He’ll do so alongside a familiar play caller in O’Connell, which he has not had since 2015, and a couple of new weapons in wide receiver Jordan Addison and tight end Josh Oliver. And he’ll do so with a degree of comfort given his long-held belief in him

KANSAS CITY

T DONOVAN SMITH, much maligned in Tampa Bay as he protected QB TOM BRADY’s blind side, is coveted by the Super Bowl champions.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

A former Super Bowl foe is headed to the Kansas City Chiefs to aid their bid to repeat as world champions.

Longtime Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive tackle Donovan Smith is signing a one-year deal with the Chiefs worth up to $9 million, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported.

A second-round selection of the Bucs back in 2015, Smith was a constant in the Tampa starting lineup over the last eight seasons. He’s started 124 career games, with 13 last year when he dealt with elbow and foot injuries.

Smith, the 64th-ranked free agent in Gregg Rosenthal’s top 101 list, played a pivotal role in Tampa Bay winning the Super Bowl in the 2020 season, which was capped by the Tom Brady-led Bucs defeating the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs. Now, Smith will move on from protecting Brady to doing the same for Mahomes. Whether Smith will be protecting Mahomes’ blind side as he did Brady will be a prevailing question. If all goes well, Smith will man the left tackle spot, Pelissero reported.

One of the largest signings for the Chiefs this offseason was former Jacksonville Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor. Taylor was assumed to be moving to left tackle after inking his four-year, $80 million deal. Earlier this week in his post-draft news conference, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said Taylor would “run left tackle with the ones,” while Lucas Niang and third-round pick Wanya Morris would likely compete for the right tackle spot.

Smith’s addition would seem to change some of the Chiefs’ plans.

TENNESSEE

QB RYAN TANNEHILL sounds unfazed by the drafting of QB WILL LEVIS.  Nick Suss of The Tennessean:

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been here before.

Tannehill spoke to media Wednesday for the first time since the team drafted Will Levis, bringing in more competition in the quarterback room for the second consecutive year.

“We’ve been down this road before,” Tannehill said. “It’s definitely a bit of a deja vu. Mike (Vrabel) and Ran (Carthon) make those decisions. It’s my job to go out and win football games.”

The Titans traded up to the second pick in the second round on Friday to draft Levis, the big-armed thrower from Kentucky who dealt with consistency issues in college but was projected by many as a top-five pick because of his physical tools, intelligence and experience in pro-style systems.

This marked the second straight year the Titans used a Day 2 draft pick on a developmental quarterback who had fallen further than expected. The Titans picked Liberty’s Malik Willis in the third round in 2022. Willis struggled as a rookie, failing to throw for more than 100 yards or a touchdown in any of his three starts.

Tannehill has one year remaining on his contract. Titans GM Ran Carthon said before the draft that he spoke with Tannehill this offseason to let the quarterback know where he stands in the organization but didn’t divulge any details. On the night the Titans picked Levis, Carthon and coach Mike Vrabel said Tannehill is the team’s starting quarterback with Willis at second string and Levis third.

“My process doesn’t really change,” Tannehill added. “I like to believe that I’m giving my all every time I go out there and prep, whether it’s OTAs or Week 15. You want to have a process.”

Ben Arthur of FoxSports.com weighs the pros and cons of sticking with Tannehill:

Ryan Tannehill is the Titans’ starting quarterback. Malik Willis is the top backup. Will Levis is the No. 3 option.

For now, that’s what Mike Vrabel is saying, in the wake of Tennessee trading up eight spots in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft — from No. 41 to 33 — to draft Levis, who slipped out of the first round.

“What I’ve told them is whatever happens after that is up to the players,” Vrabel said last week of the quarterback pecking order. “That’s what it has always been here. That’s what we always want it to be.”

But once the season gets going, it would make sense for Levis to be the top backup behind Tannehill. Let Levis learn behind Tannehill for a year, let Tannehill walk next offseason and hand the reins to Levis for 2024.

There’s also a world where the Titans look to accelerate that process, trading or releasing the 34-year-old Tannehill, who’s entering the last year of his contract.

He carries a $36.6 million cap number for 2023, second-highest in the NFL, and is due $27 million in base salary. Tennessee would have to eat $18.8 million in dead money by trading or releasing Tannehill with a pre-June 1 designation, but would save $17.8 million against the 2023 salary cap.

Let’s break down why the Titans should, and shouldn’t, move on from Tannehill ahead of the 2023 season.

Why Titans should trade Tannehill

1. Find out what you have in Levis as quickly as possible

Drafting a quarterback within the top two picks of the second round, where you traded up eight spots, is a clear sign you hope he can become your future. And general manager Ran Carthon on Friday said Levis would have been in consideration at No. 11 overall had the Titans’ eventual pick — Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski — been off the board. So Levis represented first-round value for Tennessee.

His decision making and efficiency were scrutinized from his play at Kentucky, where he threw 23 interceptions over the last two seasons. But Vrabel noted that the team believes his 65% completion rate for the Wildcats across two seasons should’ve been “closer to 70%” because of what they estimated to be about 30 drops from his pass catchers.

“Will is a diligent worker, extremely smart, extremely bright,” Carthon said. “Puts a lot of time in to be a good quarterback, so you appreciate his ability to pick up concepts and things quickly. And just who he is, he’s hard-wired. He’s tough. And his most recent offensive coordinator, Rich Scangarello, I had experience with in San Francisco so I kind of knew how he operated within that system.

“When we brought him here, our coaches and our scouting staff, we had good interactions with him,” Carthon said, “so it just made it easy for us.”

Levis will be 24 when his rookie season starts, older than the typical first-year quarterbacks (for comparison, the Texans’ C.J. Stroud and Colts’ Anthony Richardson will be 21 when the 2023 season starts; the Panthers’ Bryce Young will be 22). He also won’t have a fifth-year option in his contract as a second-round pick. Both factors give the Titans incentive to see what they have in Levis sooner rather than later.

The sooner you know what you have in Levis, the quicker you can pivot off him if he isn’t the answer. Like how — in an extreme case — the Cardinals traded Josh Rosen just a year after using a top-10 pick on him, and selected Kyler Muray with the No. 1 overall selection in the 2019 draft.

2. Titans not positioned to be major contenders in 2023

Tennessee, which ranked 28th in scoring last season (17.5 points/game), still has a bad offense on paper. It has gotten younger and much more athletic on the offensive line, which could pay dividends in the run game and in pass protection. But the team still boasts one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the NFL.

Titans wide receivers accounted for just six receiving touchdowns and 1,595 receiving yards combined last season — second- and third-worst in the league, respectively, according to Next Gen Stats. After releasing Robert Woods, the Titans have only added a seventh-round draft pick (Tennessee-Martin’s Colton Dowell) and signed veteran Chris Moore. The 29-year-old Moore has a career-high of 548 receiving yards, which came last season and would’ve led Tennessee by 21 yards.

The Titans’ defense should be strong (again), but the offense inspires little confidence with the draft and the bulk of free agency in the books.

Tennessee doesn’t look like a team equipped to make a 2023 run with Tannehill, running back Derrick Henry and other veterans leading the way.

If the Titans feel they’re going to win eight or fewer games in the upcoming season, the team would be best served rolling the dice with Levis.

3. Draft capital from Tannehill trade is needed

Instead of losing Tannehill for nothing in the 2024 offseason, the Titans could trade him to recoup a draft pick or two.

Tennessee could use those extra selections. It currently has just five picks in the 2024 draft — a first, second, fourth and two sevenths — and is not projected to earn a compensatory pick for next year, according to Over The Cap.

Why Titans should keep Tannehill

1. Tennessee can pay to be patient

Just as one can argue that an early-round quarterback should be on the field immediately, there is something to be said about letting him sit.

Patrick Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith for a year, starting just one game as a rookie. Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa didn’t become full-time starters until November of their rookie year, Hurts not until December of Year 1.

Having your young quarterback sit at the beginning doesn’t necessarily mean they’re not ready to play, but if the team has a viable veteran it wants to run with while in win-now mode, there’s an argument for patience. The Titans might feel that way, even as they’ve clearly had a hard reset with their roster.

2. Offense needs to be built up

Willis was not ready to be an NFL quarterback last season, but it didn’t help that he had shoddy pass protection and one of the league’s worst receiver rooms to work with when he was thrown in the fire with Tannehill sidelined due to injury. The Titans allowed a 39% pressure rate last season, worst in the NFL, and didn’t have a receiver touch 600 yards.

In 2023, Tennessee will be integrating several new faces on the offensive line. There’s been no real improvement to the receiver room. It could be a rough year for the Titans again offensively. Throwing Levis into that situation could be detrimental to his growth and confidence.

So … should the Titans consider moving on from Tannehill?

Yes, it should be a strong consideration. But Vrabel won’t hand out roles that aren’t earned. Levis will need to earn the coaches’ trust with his embrace of the playbook, running the offense and performance on the field.

It may be hard to trade Tannehill now because most teams have their quarterback plans set. If the Titans don’t want to release him for nothing, it would make sense to wait until training camp or the preseason, when another team may find itself in need of a quarterback due to performance and/or injury.

The Falcons or Commanders could be teams to watch.

If 2022 third-rounder Desmond Ridder doesn’t perform as hoped, Atlanta may have real interest. Tannehill played the best football of his career when Falcons coach Arthur Smith was the Titans offensive coordinator from 2019-20.

Washington has one of the league’s most unstable quarterback situations. Coach Ron Rivera said Sam Howell, a 2022 fifth-round pick, would most likely enter the offseason as QB1. The Commanders also have veteran Jacoby Brissett on a one-year, $8 million deal.

The Titans could also wait to see how the beginning of the 2023 season plays out before deciding on Tannehill. If they find success early, that would be a reason to stick with Tannehill and make one last run with a revamped offense around star running back Derrick Henry, who’s also in the last year of his contract.

If the Titans start the season rough? It’s Levis time.

“There’s a million scenarios that we’ll have to work through,” Vrabel said of the brewing quarterback competition.

NEW ENGLAND

Could this be true?  Jeremy Layton of the New York Post:

There’s still no love lost between Bill Belichick and the New York Jets.

The Patriots provided one of the quieter, yet more intriguing moves of the 2023 NFL Draft when they allowed the Steelers to move up three picks, from No. 17 to No. 14, to draft Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones, giving up only a fourth-rounder (pick No. 120) to do so.

The intriguing part of the trade comes with whom the Steelers jumped to take Jones: the New York Jets, whom Belichick is known to dislike – and many inside the league believe was trying to deliberately sabotage with the deal.

“They should have had to give up a [third-round pick] and not a four to move up there,” one NFL general manager said anonymously to The Washington Post. “Belichick did it just to f–k the Jets. He sold low because he knew the Steelers were going to take the kid the Jets wanted to take.”

It was not a secret that the Jets needed offensive line help heading into the draft, but three of the consensus top-four tackles – Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., Tennessee’s Darnell Wright, and Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski – were all off the board by the 11th pick in the draft.

With the Jets picking at 15 and Pittsburgh also in need of offensive line help, Belichick perhaps saw an opportunity to move back to 17 and allow them to swoop in and take Jones – the last of the four premier tackles – from New England’s division rival one pick ahead of them.

“Bill will try to screw them over any chance he gets,” a different NFL personnel executive told The Washington Post. “He knew exactly what he was doing.”

It appeared to work as the Jets ran out much of the clock before settling for edge rusher Will McDonald IV from Iowa State.

To add insult to injury, the Patriots were able to land Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez at pick No. 17 – a player many believed was a top-10 talent.

The Jets addressed the offensive line in the second round, taking Wisconsin center Joe Tippmann – but they still have large question marks at both tackle spots, with Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton coming off injuries.

The tackles will have the responsibility of keeping edge rushers away from 39-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

The two teams actually traded with each other later in the draft, with Belichick and the Patriots sending a sixth-rounder to the Jets to move up eight spots in the fourth round – interestingly, to select a kicker (Maryland’s Chad Ryland).

Belichick and the Jets have had a fraught relationship for much of his coaching career.

Not only has Belichick led the bitter-rival Patriots for more than two decades, but he was also originally hired to be the head coach for New York in 1999 before resigning at his introductory press conference.

He then took the job with the Patriots and has not looked back since, winning six Super Bowl championships as the Jets have only won six playoff games in that span.

It remains to be seen how much longer Belichick is going to coach the Patriots, but it appears he’s just as keen on screwing over the Jets as he has always been as he enters his 70s.

NEW YORK JETS

QB AARON RODGERS has mesmerized his young Jets teammates per Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Plenty of folks in New York are fascinated by the arrival of Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Some of those folks play for the Jets.

Rich Cimini of ESPN.com has posted a collection of quotes from young members of the team who are in awe of their new teammate.

Linebacker Quincy Williams, via Cimini, said he’s “starstruck” by Rodgers. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker says it’s “surreal” to have Rodgers on the team.

Receiver Garrett Wilson, the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year for 2022, said, “This is something 20 years from now, 30 years from now, I’ll tell my kids: ‘I played with Aaron Rodgers.’”

Of course, Wilson’s kids might not know who Aaron Rodgers is. Given the generation gap. A gap evidenced by the 39-year-old Rodgers hanging out with 22-year-old teammate Sauce Gardner, the NFL’s defensive rookie of the year for 2022.

“He was picking on me for being young,” Gardner said about their recent outing together for a Knicks playoff contest and a pregame meal. “We were getting seated, and he was like, ‘We’re about to sit by Jessica Alba.’ I was like, ‘Oh, I don’t know who that is.’ He looked at me like I’m crazy.”

It’s not crazy to think that this mindset from young Jets players makes it even more important for Rodgers to be around the team as much as possible so they get over their awe. Last year, new Packers (specifically, young receivers) would have benefited from having Rodgers around, in order to allow them to get comfortable with him.

That’s what Rodgers missed last year. Yes, he needs to get to know his new teammates. But they also need to get to know him. They need to not be freaked out around him. They need to get to the point at which they’re as comfortable with him as they are with any other teammate.

It’s also not crazy to think the 2022 Packers took a while to get going because young receivers like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs weren’t sufficiently comfortable around Rodgers early in the season. In contrast, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes did everything he could to make his new teammates comfortable around him — and look at how the season turned out in Kansas City.

It’s good that Rodgers is around for some of the offseason program. It would be better if he was there for all of it. It would be best if he gathered teammates somewhere else on their own time, in order to get to the point at which, come training camp, having him on the team is no big deal. A non-issue. No one is starstruck. No one is in awe. No one is thinking, “Wow, this is Aaron Rodgers.”

The sooner that happens, the sooner the Jets will be ready to run a gauntlet of tough games that will come fully into focus next week, when the schedule is announced.

THIS AND THAT

2024 DRAFT

The 2024 Mock Drafts are rolling in.  Here is one from ESPN’s Todd McShay who operates under the assumption that the Cardinals will be satisfied with QB KYLER MURRAY a year from now:

Yes, we’re already looking at the 2024 NFL draft class. The top prospects of the 2023 class haven’t even stepped on an NFL field yet, but let’s go ahead and do a way, way-too-early projection of every first-round pick for next year.

We watched three quarterbacks get picked in the top four spots in Kansas City, Missouri, last week, and we could see QBs high on the board again next April in Detroit. The class is currently headlined by Caleb Williams, the Heisman Trophy winner out of USC, and a handful of other signal-callers have a chance to be Day 1 selections. I also see some really good pass-catcher, edge rusher, cornerback and offensive tackle prospects.

Now, this is an extremely early prediction. I’ve only watched limited tape on next year’s prospects, and most of this is based on early talk around the league and what I’ve seen from the 2024-eligble players while digging in on 2023 tape. There’s a reason I call it the “way-too-early” mock. My 2023 edition had 14 players in it who ended up being first-rounders, including three correctly pegged to the top five — but I also had Eli Ricks and Emil Ekiyor Jr., who went undrafted, and three guys who returned to school in there. Take it for what it is; we still have an entire college season and a long pre-draft process ahead. A lot will change.

There is also the matter of the draft order. Let’s get this out of the way: I didn’t make it. We opted to project the order using the inverse of Super Bowl odds from Caesars Sportsbook, though we broke some ties and tweaked the end of it to ensure seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. It ultimately put Arizona at the top of the board with pick Nos. 1 and 2. But would the Cardinals hang onto both selections?

Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. Traded picks (Houston, Carolina, Cleveland and conditionally the N.Y. Jets) are shown below as well.

Projected trade: Cardinals trade down

If things play out like this, Arizona could control the draft with the top two selections, including the first one via the trade for the Will Anderson Jr. pick last Thursday. If the Cardinals are picking this high, a lot of things didn’t go right in 2023, and it’s not out of the question that the new regime would consider a change at quarterback. I considered going that route, but Kyler Murray’s contract makes him extremely difficult to move on from after this coming season. His cap hits for 2024-26 are all north of $50 million, with at least $20 million in dead cap each year, and he’s coming off a torn ACL. So I’m instead proposing that another QB-needy team comes up the board, allowing the Cards to pick up more draft capital and continue the rebuild.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via mock trade with ARI/HOU)

Caleb Williams, QB, USC*

The Bucs are going into the 2023 season with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask under center, but I don’t think either is the long-term plan — especially since Mayfield is on a cheap, one-year deal. Mayfield was last in Total QBR in 2022 (24.6), and Trask, a second-rounder in 2021, has thrown nine passes in the NFL. Williams is coming off a Heisman season, throwing for 4,537 yards last season. He has a good arm and excels at creating when things break down. He’s an exceptional QB prospect and would be worth the move up from No. 5 to get him.

2. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State*

If Arizona is sticking with Murray, then the next step is to get him a talented receiver, whether or not DeAndre Hopkins sticks with the team. Harrison is going to be among the elite grades at the position, perhaps even the highest since A.J. Green (97) in 2011. He has great size at 6-foot-4, 205-pounds and fantastic hands, catching 77 passes for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. With Hopkins only under contract through 2024 and Marquise Brown coming off the books after this coming season, the receiver room could use a difference-maker.

Projected trade: Washington goes in on a QB?

Maybe Indy stays put if Harrison — the son of a Colts legend — is still on the board at No. 3. But there’s still a high-end quarterback out there, and that’s not a need for Indianapolis after it took Anthony Richardson at No. 4 in April. I don’t see many teams that definitely need a signal-caller right now, but Washington does jump out a little bit. I could see a slight move up for the Commanders, who sit at No. 6 in this mock order.

3. Washington Commanders (via mock trade with IND)

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina*

Maye is 6-foot-4, 220 pounds and has a massive arm. Not only did he throw 38 touchdown passes last season, but he also ran for seven scores and almost 700 yards. Washington might be comfortable with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at the moment, but the former is a fifth-round pick with one career start, and the latter is a 30-year-old veteran backup on a one-year deal. I understand the Commanders passing on quarterback down the board at No. 16 in 2023, but if they have a chance to get someone like Maye next April, it could change things for the franchise. Washington was outside the top 20 in nearly every passing metric last season.

4. Tennessee Titans

Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama*

Turner is going to take over this Crimson Tide defense next season after Anderson graduated to the NFL. He’s undersized at 240 pounds, but he’s quick and bendy off the edge. Turner has 12.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss over two seasons despite only starting 12 of the 28 games he appeared in. And he has at least 25 pressures in each of those years. Tennessee brought in Arden Key, but Harold Landry III is coming off an ACL tear and Denico Autry is playing on the final year of his contract.

5. Arizona Cardinals (via mock trade with TB)

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama*

After the trade back, the Cardinals can add a really fluid cover corner at No. 5. That’d be big since a good portion of the defensive back room could be out the door in the next two seasons. And it’s a weakness — the Cards only had 11 picks (tied for 21st) and allowed a league-high 69.8% completion percentage in 2022. Opponents pass at will against Arizona. McKinstry is 6-foot-1 and quick, and while he only intercepted two passes over two seasons, he broke up 14 throws last year.

6. Indianapolis Colts (via mock trade with WSH)

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia*

The Colts have used picks on the tight end position in three straight drafts, but Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods and Will Mallory don’t match Bowers’ talent. The only knock on him is his 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame is a little undersized for the position. But he’s a reliable pass-catcher who has 119 catches, 1,824 yards and 20 touchdowns over the past two years. Bowers is tough to stop after the catch, too. He averaged more than eight yards after the catch per reception last season. Indy can plug him right in and let him produce with Richardson throwing him the ball.

7. Atlanta Falcons

Jared Verse, DE, Florida State*

I had Verse in my midseason top 32 rankings for the 2023 class before he decided to go back to school. And he’ll be high on the board again for 2024 after compiling nine sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss last season. The snap in his hips and hands jumps out on tape, and he’s at his best overwhelming offensive tackles with speed-to-power. Verse also mixes in an effective inside move and can beat interior linemen clean when he kicks inside. The Falcons were 31st in sacks last year (21) and might be replacing Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree next offseason. (As an aside, Atlanta could be in the quarterback market, too. Desmond Ridder hasn’t secured the long-term gig just yet.)

8. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

J.T. Tuimoloau, DE, Ohio State*

The Bears have two picks in the top 11 here, and after essentially ignoring the edge rush in the 2023 draft, they will likely be going that direction early in ’24. The Bears’ 20 sacks ranked at the bottom of the league last year, and they traded Robert Quinn at midseason. Tuimoloau is coming off a breakout year with the Buckeyes (only 3.5 sacks but 27 pressures and 12 tackles for loss) and will only keep getting better. He looks the part, too, at 6-foot-4 and 270 pounds.

9. New England Patriots

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State*

I actually think Fashanu could go even higher, and he only fell to No. 9 here because teams with earlier picks have different projected needs. That isn’t the case with the Patriots, who are relying on Trent Brown and Riley Reiff — both are 30 or older — to keep Mac Jones clean in the pocket. Fashanu has the length and quickness to develop into an elite pass blocker, with the ability to erase speed rushers, take away inside moves and anchor at the top of his set. At 6-foot-6 and 321 pounds, he’s also strong enough to move defenders off the ball in the run game. Fashanu played 520 snaps at left tackle last season and didn’t allow a single sack.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers

Bralen Trice, DE, Washington*

Trice has an NFL frame at 6-foot-4 and 256 pounds, and he can get to the QB. Trice piled up 48 pressures (sixth in the nation) and nine sacks last season, plus 13 tackles for loss. Alex Highsmith is a free agent after 2023, and Trice could slot in as a potential replacement opposite T.J. Watt.

11. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington*

The Bears are back on the clock, and I think they could look closely at this receiver class. The only pass-catchers under contract beyond 2023 are DJ Moore and Velus Jones Jr. Odunze needs to keep developing, but with Michael Penix Jr. back under center next season in Washington, the wideout has a good chance to take the next step. Odunze is a big receiver at 6-foot-3 and finished 10th in receiving last season with 1,145 yards. Chicago must continue to build the supporting cast around Justin Fields.

12. Los Angeles Rams

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame*

The Rams? In Round 1? They haven’t been here since they took Jared Goff in 2016! It’s a team with a lot of needs, and I’m sure we will be talking about the quarterbacks in the class for Los Angeles over the next 12 months, too. Matthew Stafford has a big contract, but he’s 35 years old and only played nine games last season. What about his protection, though? Only two teams allowed more sacks than the Rams’ 59 last season, and while Steve Avila (a 2022 second-round guard/center) will help, bringing in someone like Alt to team up with Joe Noteboom and Rob Havenstein would be smart. Alt is massive at 6-foot-7 and 317 pounds, and he “blew” just six total blocks (pass protecting and run blocking combined) across 866 snaps last season.

13. Green Bay Packers

Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois*

Newton has great tape. He’s a very powerful and active 3-technique with upper-body snap, and he would immediately plug into the middle of the Packers’ defense. Green Bay lost Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry off the defensive line, but I could see Newton working well alongside Kenny Clark to fill against the run and penetrate the backfield. He had 18 run stops last season while adding 13.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.

14. Seattle Seahawks

Leonard Taylor, DT, Miami-FL*

A former five-star recruit, Taylor flashed during the 2022 season at Miami. Go watch his tape against Virginia to see what he can do — Taylor had 1.5 sacks and 2.5 tackles for loss in that one. Seattle brought in Derick Hall on Day 2 this year, but it didn’t fix the interior, and GM John Schneider will likely keep building up that defensive line. At 6-foot-3 and 305 pounds, Taylor can help. He has 10 or more tackles for loss in each of his two seasons with the Hurricanes.

15. Denver Broncos

Jack Sawyer, OLB, Ohio State*

Sawyer joins Tuimoloau to form arguably the top edge rush tandem in the nation entering the 2023 season, and he’s a bit of a hybrid, showing the ability to rush off the edge standing up or with his hand in the dirt. He only started three games over the past two years, and the production is still coming (7.5 total sacks), but Sawyer has a lot of upside. The Broncos could use an influx of edge rush help; Baron Browning and Zach Allen are the top pass-rushers on this team right now by sack count, and both had fewer than six in 2022.

16. Las Vegas Raiders

Kalen King, CB, Penn State*

One Penn State cornerback was just drafted early (No. 32) last week, and the other could be a top pick in 2023. But whereas Joey Porter Jr. is long and physical, King is more fluid and an easy mover. His movements appear effortless. And King is a pure cover man, breaking up 15 passes (tied for fifth in the FBS) and picking off three more last season. At 5-foot-11 and 188 pounds, he isn’t the biggest corner in the class, but he has the quickness, instincts and smoothness to make plays. I could see him bumping inside, too, if needed. I was surprised Las Vegas didn’t draft a cornerback early this year, so I’d expect it to look closely at the position next time around.

17. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Maason Smith, DT, LSU*

The Texans traded their own first-rounder, but they still have the Browns’ pick. Receiver could be in play, but I like the fit for Smith here. He looked great as a freshman in 2021 but tore his left ACL in the 2022 opener. If he returns to form next season, he could be a Day 1 pick. At 6-foot-5 and 300 pounds, he has good size and quickness, and he managed four sacks from the interior during that ’21 season. Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins could both be headed to free agency, which would open up a spot inside. Few teams were worse against the run last season than Houston, which gave up 5.1 yards per carry.

18. Miami Dolphins

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas*

Sanders is a rising star. Miami moved on from Mike Gesicki and could use a difference-maker at tight end — someone who could provide Tua Tagovailoa with a security blanket in the middle of the field and give the Dolphins some size in the red zone. A reliable pass-catcher, Sanders is 6-foot-4 and hauled in 54 passes for 613 yards last season.

19. New York Giants

Michael Hall Jr., DT, Ohio State*

The Giants will have some decisions to make along the defensive line, with Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, Jihad Ward and A’Shawn Robinson all set to play on expiring deals this season. Hall is explosive on the interior, picking up 4.5 sacks last season. I could see him fitting in with New York nicely.

20. Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan*

I thought about Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. here, too, but I ultimately went with McCarthy, who threw for 22 TDs and five interceptions last season in Michigan. There are a handful of passers who could rise into Round 1 — Penix, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Texas’ Quinn Ewers, to name a few — but McCarthy is intriguing because of his 6-foot-3 frame, running ability, accuracy and arm talent. In Minnesota, Kirk Cousins is entering the final year of his deal, and the team could move on. Despite winning 13 games last season, the Vikings were outside the top 20 in Total QBR (49.9). McCarthy could be the future for a team like Minnesota if he takes the next step in 2023.

21. New Orleans Saints

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State*

If Harrison and Egbuka both go in Round 1 next year, that makes five Ohio State receivers on Day 1 over the course of three years. That’s wild. I’m curious to see what Egbuka does this season without C.J. Stroud under center. He plays with speed and burst, and he averaged 15.6 yards per catch last season en route to 1,151 yards and 10 TD catches. In New Orleans, he could team up with Chris Olave — one of those aforementioned other Buckeye first-rounders — and Michael Thomas to give Derek Carr a solid pass-catching trio.

22. Detroit Lions

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas*

Worthy has some wheels, but his lean frame might concern some scouts. At 6-foot-1 and 163 pounds, he’s the receiver version of cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, who was just drafted at No. 16 last Thursday night. Even so, Worthy went for 760 yards and nine TDs last season, and he could fit nicely alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams to give Jared Goff and/or Hendon Hooker a solid trio of wideouts. With Jahmyr Gibbs also there, that offense has a chance to be a lot of fun. Alternatively, Detroit could go defense and continue adding to the defensive line.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa*

Jacksonville has Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams on the outside, but both are free agents after the 2024 season. And it could use someone in the slot, too. DeJean has the versatility to play there before moving outside. He’s an instinctive playmaker with speed, and he’s built like a safety at 6-foot-1, 209 pounds. DeJean had five interceptions last season, and three were TD returns. And after the Jags struggled on punt returns (7.9 yards per run back) last year, he could bring a boost there. He averaged 16.5 yards per return in 2022.

24. Baltimore Ravens

Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State*

A transfer from Maryland, Robinson had a good 2022 season despite no sack production. He didn’t start a game for the Nittany Lions but still accumulated 13.5 tackles for loss and 26 pressures. Baltimore needs more playmaking pass-rushers, and Robinson could be a good fit. But I also think the Ravens could consider cornerbacks or defensive tackles if those holes go unfixed by next April.

25. Los Angeles Chargers

Denzel Burke, CB, Ohio State*

Six Ohio State players make the list here, though Burke needs to take the next step and play his way into Round 1. He has the talent to do it. Burke only has one interception through two years, but it was a pick-six. Michael Davis is a free agent after this season, and J.C. Jackson is returning off a right knee injury, so the cornerback room is an area that needs a boost. But the Chargers could also get a defensive tackle to shore up the run defense if there’s one on the board.

26. Dallas Cowboys

JC Latham, OT, Alabama*

Tyron Smith and Terence Steele are both set to be free agents after the upcoming season, and Dallas was 27th in pass block win rate last year (52.9%). Latham has a 6-foot-6, 326-pound frame, plays with power and has versatility. He allowed just one sack over 13 starts last season. Latham is also a real asset in the run game at right tackle, where he could help spring Tony Pollard.

27. Green Bay Packers (conditionally via NYJ)

Calen Bullock, S, USC*

No, this pick isn’t quite under the Packers control just yet. But if the Jets are picking at No. 27 and making the playoffs, I think it’s a safe bet that Aaron Rodgers played 65% of the snaps in the 2023 season, the qualifier for the second-round conditional pick to become a Day 1 selection. So we’re giving this one to Green Bay, who lands a 6-foot-3 playmaker in the secondary here. Bullock has seven interceptions over two years, including five in 2022. Darnell Savage, Tarvarius Moore and Rudy Ford are all playing out the final years of their current deals, so there’s a hole at safety.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU*

Suamataia is a huge 6-foot-6, 325-pound transfer from Oregon who started 12 games at right tackle last year and allowed just five pressures. Cincinnati cut down on sacks allowed last season (44 against, tied for 20th), but it was 30th in pass block win rate at 50.1%. Signing Orlando Brown Jr. is a big move in the right direction, but will Jonah Williams stick with the team after requesting a trade? Suamataia could slide right in and give the Bengals massive bookends to keep their franchise QB upright.

29. Buffalo Bills

Javon Bullard, CB, Georgia*

Bullard reminds me of Dax Hill, the Michigan defensive back who landed with Cincinnati at the end of Round 1 in 2022. He’s undersized at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, but he is super quick and versatile. Bullard — who had two interceptions and 50 tackles for the national champs last season — has experience at both corner and safety, though I could see him settling into a nickel role in the pros. If the Bills instead want a true safety, considering Micah Hyde is off the books after the 2023 season, I think they could consider Miami’s Kamren Kinchens or Clemson’s Andrew Mukuba here.

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Jeremiah Trotter Jr., ILB, Clemson*

Porter went to the team that drafted his dad back in 1999 (Pittsburgh) this year, so why not project Trotter to go to the team that selected his dad in 1998 next year? The younger Trotter is coming off a great season and could join Nakobe Dean to fill the hole left up the middle after the departures of T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. He has great instincts and 6-foot, 230-pound size. Trotter had 91 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, seven pass breakups, two interceptions and a forced fumble last year. He does it all.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Cooper Beebe, G, Kansas State

The Niners don’t have many holes but could probably use a refresh on the interior offensive line. And I think Beebe is clearly the best interior lineman in the country, though Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson might also end up in the first-round mix. Beebe is a grinder with good mobility and a big 6-foot-4, 322-pound frame. He has only allowed two sacks over 35 career starts, none of which have come in the past two seasons. In fact, he only allowed one pressure across 418 pass-block snaps last year.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Graham Barton, OT, Duke

I don’t know who will end up winning the Super Bowl and picking at the end of the first round, but since we went off championship odds for this exercise, Kansas City has the honor here … again. The Chiefs signed Jawaan Taylor, but Lucas Niang has only started nine games in his career and missed nearly all of the 2022 season with a torn patellar tendon, and Donovan Smith is turning 30. Barton is 6-foot-5 and 311 pounds, and he has 30 starts under his belt. If the Chiefs are happy with their offensive line or opt to reload that group in free agency, maybe they bring in a receiver for Patrick Mahomes like LSU’s Malik Nabers or boost the run game with a running back like Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson.