The Daily Briefing Thursday, May 9, 2024

THE DAILY BRIEFING

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com says that Dan Campbell’s coaching staff has successfully shown the value of having lots of former NFL players.

Early in training camp last season, Detroit Lions tight end Brock Wright saw his unit was struggling to master its responsibilities in pass-protection schemes.

 

That’s when newly hired tight ends coach Steve Heiden — an 11-year veteran at the position who played for the Cleveland Browns and San Diego Chargers — stepped in.

 

“We were kind of struggling early on in training camp and him, having played the position for so long, he had so many different technique ideas and drills and things to help us with,” Wright said of Heiden. “It really helped us hammer that down early on in the season and improve on it for the rest of the year.”

 

Heiden played 148 games over his career, logging 201 receptions for 1,689 yards and 14 touchdowns. Prior to joining Detroit’s staff, he spent 10 years coaching with the Arizona Cardinals, including serving as tight ends coach during his final four seasons. Wright, entering his fourth NFL season, calls Heiden “the best coach I’ve ever had by far.”

 

“When it comes to his knowledge of the game, the way he’s able to communicate it with us is incredible,” Wright said. “I’ve learned so much from him already and I’m really looking forward to working with him again this year and just keep getting better.”

 

Heiden is one of 10 accomplished former NFL players who have found their way to Lions coach Dan Campbell’s staff. Campbell, a tight end in the league for more than a decade, has surrounded himself with assistant coaches such as Heiden, Mark Brunell (quarterbacks), Antwaan Randle El (wide receivers), Aaron Glenn (defensive coordinator), Dre Bly (cornerbacks), Scottie Montgomery (running backs), Hank Fraley (offensive line), Kelvin Sheppard (linebackers), Deshea Townsend (passing game coordinator/defensive backs) and Shaun Dion Hamilton (assistant linebackers coach) who helped transform the franchise from perennial loser to Super Bowl contender over three seasons.

 

The tactic has been a hit. In addition to the Lions’ success — Detroit came within a win of making its first Super Bowl appearance last season — players rave about the coaching staff’s previous playing experience, saying it helps the coaches relate to them in pivotal moments on and off the field. And the coaches’ presence has also been helpful to their colleagues without NFL playing backgrounds, such as offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who can draw from their experience.

 

“It’s instant credibility with the players,” Johnson said. “[The players] might not know the coach very well, but the fact that he played at a high level in this league, I do think that speaks volumes for the respect factor early on.”

 

Johnson, who has interviewed for a number of head-coaching vacancies — including the Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers — the past two offseasons, is one of the 16 members of the 26-man coaching staff with no NFL playing experience. A former walk-on quarterback at the University of North Carolina, he says he has benefitted from the presence of so many former NFL players in Detroit. Their knowledge has helped in game-planning, and Johnson sees a stark difference in their approach.

 

“I learned from a veteran coach when I was in Miami that you can’t coach what you don’t know and so for guys like me and probably [Lions special teams] Coach [Dave] Fipp who didn’t play in this league, it’s been a race for growing that library, the volume, what can we learn, what can we be experts on that we can share that knowledge and then our way of teaching that to the players is just — it looks different because you might have Coach Heiden, or Antwaan Randle El out there demonstrating exactly what they want.”

 

A Super Bowl champion who caught 370 passes over a nine-year career, Randle El serves as a mentor to his Lions wide receiver group. His understanding of them as athletes, their lives at home and on the field has helped him connect in a way that is appreciated.

 

“With them understanding how our bodies feel, what we go through, the aches and pains in a year, what practice looks like. So they really understand what it’s like to be a player in this league, and not just being on the field, but even off the field, whether it’s family trying to come to games and things like that they understand,” Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown said.

 

“They keep it in their mind, and they know what it’s like. And they feel for us, but they always remind us that ‘You guys have to keep the main thing, the main thing.'”

 

Working with Brunell as his quarterbacks coach, Jared Goff helped lead Detroit to the NFC Championship Game last season, posting the 11th-best total QBR (60.3) while throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

 

Brunell, a three-time Pro Bowler who led the NFL in passing yards (4,367) in 1996, isn’t afraid to be hard on Goff, who says it has helped bring out the best in him. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2016, Goff has passed for 12,258 yards and 78 touchdowns with 27 interceptions in their three seasons together in Detroit.

 

“Brunell’s a perfect example. He’s been through a lot of it,” Goff said. “He’s had his highs and he’s had his lows and I think, having a guy like that for me to rely on, he’s seen every bit of playing this position. He played it for a long time. It’s been fun. It’s been really fun to work with him. He’s been great to me.”

 

In December, former Lions safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson returned to practice in three months — quicker than the expected six — after tearing a pectoral muscle in Week 2. Without football, Gardner-Johnson described the rehab process as being “lonely” and “dark,” but he was able to return earlier than expected, he said, with the help of Campbell.

 

“That former player has been hurt before, so he taught me that mentally you can’t get down because you can’t control that,” said Gardner-Johnson, who signed with the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. “Dan would text me and say, ‘Don’t forget about football.’ Because I would find myself [away] from football too much.”

 

Surrounded by former players, Campbell’s Lions have won 21 games over the past two seasons, which is the most in franchise history over that span. Although many view him as the face of the team’s turnaround, one hall of famer said his star-studded coaching staff deserves a lot of the credit as well.

 

“A big part of that is Dan himself, being a player turned coach and him surrounding himself with a bunch of player-coaches on his staff,” said Lions great Calvin Johnson, a former teammate of Campbell in Detroit. “Players have no choice really but to dial in when you have somebody that’s been there, done that and did the things that you’re trying to do and they’re teaching you how to do those things.

 

“You kind of dial in a little more when you have a player-coach, and you see that happening. You saw it when it happened last year and it kind of clicked for them halfway through the season last year and it’s just been trending up since then.”

 

Detroit is not alone in its hiring practices, however. Though they have yet to experience similar on-field success as Detroit, teams such as the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers also had coaching staffs littered with former players last season, and Campbell is quick to stress not every former NFLer can be a great coach.

 

“It’s not just that you’re ex-players, they have to be the right players that are ex-players,” Campbell said. “Just like, just because a coach has not played in the NFL, doesn’t mean he can’t coach — he’s not a damn good coach. He’s got to be the right coach.

 

“So, it’s about the right person who is the right coach. But you’ve still got to earn your respect. You have to earn the respect of the players.”

 

Campbell said he values adding coaches who can be motivators, teachers and communicators above all else.

 

“We have a really, really good chemistry in the staff, which is one of the greatest things I learned under [Broncos coach] Sean Payton, man, it’s — compatibility is more important than coachability, which doesn’t mean coachability is not important, it just means compatibility is the most important thing with that group,” Campbell said.

 

GREEN BAY

Eighteen months ago, QB JORDAN LOVE was the unproven understudy of QB AARON RODGERS.  Today, former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com is talking about his potential to be the highest-paid QB in football.

Jordan Love’s contract situation moves to the forefront for the Green Bay Packers. The quarterback became eligible for a new deal on May 3. That’s when the one-year waiting period under the NFL collective bargaining agreement for Love to sign a new deal ended.

 

The Packers and Love both hedged their bets in signing a one-year, $13.5 million contract extension worth up to $22.5 million through salary escalators dated May 3, 2023. The deal was in lieu of the Packers making a decision about picking up the 2020 first-round pick’s fully guaranteed $20.272 million fifth-year option for 2024.

 

Love is scheduled to make $11 million in 2024, thanks to earning $5 million of the $9 million salary escalator due to his 2023 performance, playtime and Green Bay’s success. His 2024 salary cap number is $12,757,731.

 

Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst indicated at the NFL annual owners meeting held in late March that preliminary contract discussions had taken place. Aaron Rodgers, Love’s predecessor as Packers quarterback, is likely going to loom large in negotiations of a new deal for a variety of reasons.

 

One interesting twist is that Love and Rodgers are both represented by the same agency, Athletes First, but by different primary agents. Rodgers has David Dunn, who co-founded Athletes First in 2001. Love’s agents are David Mulugheta and Andrew Kessler. Expect how the Packers treated Rodgers with his veteran contracts to be used against Green Bay because of the same agency dynamic.

 

Rodgers’ first contract extension

There is a school of thought that Love doesn’t have enough of a track record for the Packers to make a massive financial commitment to him. Rodgers had a smaller body of work when he was given his first veteran contract. The Packers signed Rodgers to a five-year extension averaging $12.704 million per year seven games into his fourth season — his first as a starter — at the beginning of November in 2008.

 

The deal made Rodgers the NFL’s fourth- or fifth-highest paid player depending on interpretation. Rodgers was fourth behind Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning’s respective deals with the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts averaging $16,166,667, $14,664,417 and $14 million per year provided Michael Vick is excluded.

 

Technically, Vick remained under contract with the Atlanta Falcons until June 2009 with his $13 million-per-year extension although he had been suspended indefinitely by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in 2007 and was finishing a 23-month prison sentence for his role in a dogfighting ring. A final resolution with the grievance the Falcons filed against Vick to recoup money from his contract was why he hadn’t been released when Rodgers signed his deal.

 

Love and Rodgers were comparable statistically in their fourth NFL season, which is highlighted in the following chart.

 

PLAYER  GAMES   COMP     ATTEMPTS     COMP %      YARDS    TDS     INT RATING  RECORD

Love           17           372            579                 64.2               4159       32      11      96.1         9-8

Rodgers     16           341            536                 63.6               4038       28      13     93.8         6-10

 

The biggest difference is Love took a major step forward over the second half of the 2023 season that translated into team success. He completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,150 yards with 18 touchdowns and just one interception to post a 112.7 passer rating while the Packers went 6-2 to secure a playoff berth.

 

Based on the precedent set with a young Rodgers, the Packers should at least be willing to make Love the NFL’s fourth- or fifth-highest paid player. At a minimum, Love should be in the $48.5 million-to-$49 million-per-year neighborhood by approximating the midpoint of the league’s fourth- and fifth-highest paid player.

 

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is currently fourth in the NFL salary hierarchy. He received a five-year, $255 million extension averaging $51 million per year that briefly made him the league’s highest-paid player in April 2023. The deal is worth as much as $270 million because of salary escalators. There are $180 million in overall guarantees, of which $110 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

 

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is right behind Hurts. The two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP’s contract was renegotiated during the early part of the 2023 regular season.

 

The Chiefs didn’t add any new money to Mahomes’ deal since he had eight more years left on his contract. The deal still expires after the 2031 season. Money was redistributed from the latter years so his contract is no longer extremely backloaded.

 

There are $208.1 million of guarantees in Mahomes’ renegotiated contract, which is the cash from 2023 through 2026. A total of $133.7 million was fully guaranteed at signing. The total value of the renegotiated nine-year contract is $417.05 million for an average of $46,338,889 per year.

 

Ordinarily, a team would be able to easily distance itself from a deal done over 15 years ago. That isn’t the case with the Packers. Current Packers president and CEO Mark Murphy served in the same capacity when Rodgers signed his first veteran contract. He assumed these roles in January 2008.

 

Rodgers’ final Packers contract

The Packers have demonstrated a comfort with paying a starting quarterback $50,271,667 per year. That was the average yearly salary of the final deal Rodgers signed with the Packers in March 2022.

 

Rodgers became the NFL’s first $50 million-per-year player with a contract widely considered to be $150.815 million over three years although there were two additional below-market years (2025 and 2026) in the deal. He established new benchmarks for guaranteed money in football contracts with $150.665 million in total guarantees and $101.515 million fully guaranteed at signing. Both of these marks have been surpassed by numerous quarterbacks in subsequent signings.

 

It wouldn’t be surprising for Love’s camp to not only target more than this deal, but to insist on their client becoming the league’s highest-paid player, like Rodgers. The Packers will surely push back on this idea noting that Rodgers was coming off back-to-back NFL MVP seasons when he received the deal.

 

Love’s case could be bolstered because as a first-year starter he outperformed Rodgers during his last season in Green Bay. The chart below outlines their production.

 

PLAYER  GAMES   COMP     ATTEMPTS     COMP %      YARDS    TDS     INT RATING  RECORD

Love           17           372            579                 64.2               4159       32      11      96.1         9-8

Rodgers     17          350            542                 64.6                3695       26      12      91.1        8-9

 

By Rodgers’ standards, 2022 was a down year. The Packers missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018 as Rodgers turned 39 years old late in the season.

 

Love was the best quarterback on the field in Green Bay’s shocking wild-card game win over the Dallas Cowboys with 2023 NFL MVP runner-up Dak Prescott as his counterpart. He more than held his own in a divisional playoff loss against the San Francisco 49ers. The opposing quarterback, Brock Purdy, was also an NFL MVP finalist.

 

Gutekunst didn’t do himself any favors with his praise of Love in a recent Sirius XM NFL Radio interview. The Packers general manager said, “Certainly he (meaning Love) played at a very, very, high level in the second half of last year and I think the sky’s the limit for him.”

 

Statements like this about a client from a high-ranking team executive or the head coach are music to an agent’s ears. Love’s camp will surely attempt to monetize Gutekunst’s complimentary words. For example, a position could be taken that since Love is just scratching the surface of his talent where his best football is ahead of him, the sky should be the limit for his compensation.

 

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is the current NFL salary standard bearer. He signed a five-year, $275 million extension averaging $55 million per year last September right before the start of the 2023 regular season. The deal is worth up to $281.25 million, thanks to $1.25 million of annual incentives in the extension years (2025 through 2029). Burrow has $219.01 million of salary guarantees in which $146.51 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

 

It’s the most for these contract metrics outside of the $230 million in Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed five-year contract with the Cleveland Browns. Burrow also got an extremely player-friendly structure from the Bengals in which the first three new contract years average $61,320,327 per year.

 

The ink was barely dry on the five-year, $262.5 million extension averaging $52.5 million per year Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert signed at the beginning of training camp last July when Burrow replaced him at the top of the NFL pay scale. There’s $2.5 million of base salary escalators each in 2028 and 2029 so the extension’s maximum value is $267.5 million.

 

Herbert’s deal has $193,738,375 in guarantees, of which $133,738,375 is fully guaranteed at signing. The total amount that can become guaranteed is $218,738,375. That’s because $25 million of Herbert’s unsecured $47 million 2028 base salary is guaranteed for injury on the third day of the 2026 league year (mid-March 2026). The $25 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2027 league year (mid-March 2027).

 

The NFL pay scale was dramatically reset on each of Rodgers’ last three contracts with the Packers. The smallest increase was in 2013 when Rodgers’ $22 million per year was 9.45% more than Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco’s $20.1 million per year. Even if the Packers were amendable to Love becoming the league’s highest-paid player, a similar increase would surely be a bridge too far. The Packers would be making Love the NFL’s first $60 million-per-year player.

 

The largest increase among the four quarterbacks to become the NFL’s salary king last year was Herbert getting 0.96% above Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s $52 million per year. Burrow got the biggest jump. His deal is 4.76% more than Herbert’s.

 

The average increase was 2.3%. Should the Packers be inclined to do the same for Love, his extension would average slightly more than $56.25 million per year.

 

Time is on Love’s side

The Packers are usually proactive in getting contract extensions done with core players, which Love certainly is. His best deal may come by waiting to see if there are any new developments in the quarterback market before training camps open in late July or the start of the regular season in early September that could be beneficial before pulling the trigger.

 

The game changer would be Prescott getting something done with the Cowboys. It’s conceivable that Prescott could become the NFL’s first $60 million-per-year player provided he is willing to fully exploit his leverage given the Cowboys are prohibited from designating him as a franchise player next offseason if he plays out his contract. The odds of topping a blockbuster Prescott deal would be remote, but Love would have more ammunition to get more than Burrow’s $55 million per year.

 

Tua Tagovailoa’s potential contract extension with the Miami Dolphins could have the most relevance to Love’s situation. The Dolphins are seemingly preparing to make Tagovailoa one of the league’s highest-paid players after letting defensive tackle Christian Wilkins leave on the open market rather than using a franchise tag on him and offensive guard Robert Hunt joining the exclusive $20 million-per-year interior offensive lineman club in free agency.

 

Love’s fellow 2020 first-round pick is also represented by Athletes First. These deals will probably get done in an order that’s advantageous for Athletes First. Presumably, whichever of these two quarterbacks signs first will likely serve as the salary floor for the other.

 

Contract structure

Love should want to give up no more than four new years in his contract. This would allow him to be best positioned for the expected significant salary cap growth in the coming years, thanks to the latest media rights deals reportedly worth $113 billion over 11 years and an influx of gambling revenue.

 

That might not be possible after the developments at the top of the quarterback market last year. Giving up five new years became the norm. Burrow, Herbert and Hurts each signed five-year extensions in which their respective contracts added five new years. Jackson’s rookie contract had expired when he signed for five years.

 

The Packers will almost surely have to make a major structural accommodation to Love that was consistently done for Rodgers in order to consummate a deal. Generally, Green Bay is in the dark ages when it comes to structuring contracts for veteran players. The only guaranteed money in Green Bay veteran contracts is a signing bonus and/or a roster bonus payable within a few days of signing. The bigger deals contain an unsecured third or fifth day of the league year roster bonus in the second and third years. The roster bonuses are supposed to be substitutes for additional contract guarantees. The overall guarantees in Packers contracts are less than comparable deals on other teams.

 

Rodgers has been the lone exception. His 2013, 2018 and 2022 deals had traditional salary guarantees.

 

The Packers used one of the NFL’s more complex contract structures with Rodgers in 2022. The deal had two option bonuses, one in 2023 and the other in 2024.

 

Option bonuses are prorated over the life of a contract (up to a maximum of five years), including the option years, beginning in the league year when the option is exercised. From a salary cap standpoint, the presumption is option years will be picked up.

 

Teams can keep a player’s salary cap number low or manageable in the initial years of a contract. There will eventually be a big jump in the player’s cap number because of the proration attributed to each year with the multiple options. For example, Jackson’s smallest cap number was in 2023, the first year of his contract. His cap number balloons to $74.65 million in 2026 and 2027, each of the last two years of his five-year contract. The big drawback with this structure is there can be excessive dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team’s roster, in the event of a release, a trade or retirement.

 

Multiple option bonuses are rarely used although this complicated type of contract structure is gaining traction with the league’s most lucrative deals. Each of the four quarterbacks who signed for in excess of $50 million per year in 2023 had at least two option bonuses in their contracts. There’s a good possibility that the Packers will continue this emerging trend with Love’s extension, especially in light of how Rodgers’ last deal was structured.

 

The alternative to a contract extension

Barring a major regression this upcoming season, Love would be destined for a franchise tag in 2025 if he played out his contract. Generally, quarterbacks are rarely in a position to be franchised because new deals are usually in place well before the decision needs to be made. In the last 10 offseasons, only three quarterbacks — Kirk Cousins (2016 and 2017), Prescott (2020 and 2021) and Jackson (2023) — have been designated as franchise players.

 

There are two types of franchise designations, non-exclusive and exclusive. The non-exclusive tag allows a player to negotiate with other NFL teams, but if he signs an offer sheet with another club, his team has five days to match the offer. If the offer is not matched, his team will receive two first-round picks as compensation from the signing team. The non-exclusive franchise tag for quarterbacks next year should be 14.366% of 2025 salary cap, which should put the number right around $39 million. This assumes a 2025 salary cap in the $270 million neighborhood, which would be approximately a six percent increase over the current $255.4 million figure.

 

The non-exclusive tag could make the Packers vulnerable to an offer sheet by a quarterback-needy team with an abundance of salary cap room that might be difficult to match. The Ravens took a calculated risk with Jackson by giving him the non-exclusive tag. Curiously, some quarterback-needy teams where Jackson would have been a significant upgrade were quick to publicly state there wouldn’t be an interest in him. A market for his services never developed before he re-signed with the Ravens.

 

The two first-round picks for Love would be considered a good value relative to the trade compensation for quarterbacks perceived to be in the upper echelon when dealt in recent years. In March 2022, the Browns acquired Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick from the Houston Texans for 2022, 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick. A couple of weeks earlier, the Seattle Seahawks dealt Russell Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick to the Denver Broncos for multiple players (tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock), 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, 2022 and 2023 second-round picks and a 2022 fifth-round pick.

 

The last three times prior to Jackson quarterbacks were designated as franchise players, the exclusive version was used. A player cannot negotiate with other teams with the exclusive franchise tag. Next year’s quarterback exclusive franchise number will be the average of the top five 2025 quarterback salaries (salary cap numbers with some minor adjustments) at the end of the restricted free agent signing period on next April 18. It currently projects to $57.945 million. This number is subject to change depending on new quarterback deals, contract restructures, pay cuts and/or releases between now and then.

 

The 2024 quarterback draft class was extremely top heavy with an unprecedented six passers being taken in the first 12 picks. The Packers might not have the same luxury the Ravens had with Jackson on which designation to use because the 2025 crop of quarterbacks pales in comparison. The exclusive tag possibly being a necessity surely isn’t lost on Love’s representatives or the Packers.

NFC EAST
 

DALLAS

WR ZAY JONES to the Cowboys?  ProFootballTalk.com:

Wide receiver Zay Jones is moving on to another free agent visit on Wednesday and this one will take him back to where he started his life.

 

Jones was born in Dallas while his father Robert was playing linebacker for the Cowboys and Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report reports that the wideout will be meeting with the team. The elder Jones won three Super Bowls during his time in Dallas and then spent time in St. Louis, Miami, and Washington.

 

The Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin, and sixth-round pick Ryan Flournoy on the receiver depth chart at the moment.

 

Jones has also visited with the Titans and Cardinals since being released by the Jaguars after the draft, although the Titans struck a deal with Tyler Boyd on Tuesday and that would seem to take Jones out of the mix in Tennessee.

NFC SOUTH
 

NEW ORLEANS

Saints GM Mickey Loomis talking up holdover QB DEREK CARR.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

After nine years with the Raiders, Derek Carr went through his first season on a different team with the Saints in 2023.

 

The club finished 9-8, winning four of its last five games to challenge for a postseason berth.

 

Carr started all 17 games, completing 68 percent of his passes for 3,878 yards with 25 touchdowns with eight interceptions. But while Carr was available for every game, it wasn’t necessarily easy for him to get through those contests, as G.M. Mickey Loomis noted in a recent interview with SiriusXM NFL Radio.

 

“Look, one thing that’s been understated — it’s on purpose — is Derek had a pretty tough year last year, physically,” Loomis said. “He got rocked pretty good in the Green Bay game and it took a number of games for him to get feeling like himself. And, look, he played through it. He’s as tough as they come. But it affected him, particularly in the middle part of our season.

 

“I thought he played really well toward the end. He got comfortable with the receivers and the skill position guys we have. And we’ve got to do a better job of protecting him as well.”

 

Loomis added that like anyone would be, Carr appears more comfortable as he enters his second year in the building. Though the Saints brought in a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak, the Saints have plenty of continuity for Carr to fall back on.

 

“[T]he surroundings are more familiar, the coaches are more familiar, the environment that we have in our building is familiar,” Loomis said. “So, I think the arrow is up and we’re excited about what Derek brings to the table. And I know he’s excited.

 

“Look, it’s hard to take that leadership role when you first come into a building — no matter how good you are, no matter what position you have. So now a year in, he’s going to feel more comfortable about the leadership that you need from the quarterback and we’re expecting great things.”

AFC EAST
 

NEW ENGLAND

This is a Kraft Draft.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com explains:

In the days preceding the draft, there was plenty of chatter as to whether and to what extent ownership is calling the shots in New England. Now that the Patriots are trying to fill their top football job in a manner that complies with the Rooney Rule, signs are pointing to the fact that Robert and/or Jonathan Kraft necessarily had final say on the picks.

 

Not just the first one, quarterback Drake Maye. But all of them.

 

The Patriots are currently looking for a new person to run the football operations. Whatever the title might be, that person will have final say over the roster and the draft. They waited until after the 2024 draft to start their search.

 

What about before the draft? When PFT recently posed questions to the NFL about the Patriots’ search, a league spokesperson pointed to an article from Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald, which contains multiple facts attributed to the league via on-the-record communications.

 

This sentence stands out: “The Patriots were in compliance with the Rooney Rule before the draft because, per the league, there wasn’t a singular person in the primary personnel position, and because there were no changes to anyone’s title.”

 

So if no one was in the primary personnel position, no one had final say. And if no one had final say, who had final say?

 

Common sense points directly to ownership.

 

And that’s fine, if that’s the case. Jerry Jones has been doing it in Dallas for 35 years. In most cities, however, ownership lurks behind football operations personnel who are accountable for bad picks with their jobs.

 

In New England, there are two explanations. Either Eliot Wolf had final say and the Patriots violated the Rooney Rule or Wolf didn’t have final say and ownership did. It cannot be neither.

 

Again, it doesn’t matter if ownership is calling the shots. In New England, the question currently takes on greater sensitivity against the backdrop of the Apple documentary that many regarded as a way to give ownership a share of the spotlight for the six Super Bowl wins during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era — and/or to throw a little mud on Belichick (as he joked at the Tom Brady roast).

 

The truth is that, in most if not all cities, ownership is involved at a minimum in the big decisions. Why shouldn’t they be? It’s their business. However, in the same way that owners collectively hide behind the Commissioner, many (if not most . . . if not all except Jones) individually hide behind their coaches and/or General Managers and/or whoever has the job that carries final say even if it’s a pretty good idea to make sure ownership is on board with the manner in which final say is said.

– – –

And CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ is excited to be a real zero.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez wore the No. 0 jersey when he was an Oregon Duck, and he’s excited that he’ll now be the first player ever to wear the number in New England.

 

“Zero, I could be the first Patriot to wear it. That’s cool,” Gonzalez said, via MassLive.com.

 

The NFL began allowing players to wear No. 0 last year, but no Patriots wore it. As a rookie, Gonzalez had to go through the Bill Belichick tradition of wearing a team-selected number, No. 50, before finally getting his real jersey number, which last year was No. 6. Now he’s allowed to wear the No. 0 that Oregon gave him when he transferred there. It’s a number he came to identify with himself.

 

“They said 0 was an option. I honestly didn’t like it at first until they started playing with Gonzo, Zero, and Oregon. I put it on and really liked it,” Gonzalez said.

 

Like all players who change jersey numbers, Gonzalez was required to buy up any remaining inventory of his No. 6 jersey that went unsold from his rookie year. To him, it was worth it.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

BROADCAST NEWS

Netflix, the NFL and Christmas?  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

This Christmas, the NFL might Netflix and cha-ching.

 

With the league reportedly passing the Santa hat in search of anywhere for $50 million to $100 million for the broadcasts rights to each of the two December 25 games in 2024, Boomer Esiason of WFAN floated an interesting theory on Wednesday.

 

“Do not be surprised if the NFL and Netflix get in bed for a nice little Christmas Day football games,” Esiason said, via AwfulAnnouncing.com. “I would not be surprised.”

 

I wouldn’t be, either. No one should be. Although the NFL and Netflix haven’t previously done a direct deal for games, the tentacles have been spreading. And Netflix has proven that it can serve up live events, as it did on Sunday night with the Tom Brady no-holds-barred-except-when-holds-were-barred roast.

 

It’s an awkward spot for the NFL, since the Wednesday schedule will be derived from clawing two games from CBS and/or Fox. In theory, they should already have the rights to those games.

 

Maybe the contracts were written to give the NFL the flexibility to yank a pair of Sunday games and move them to Wednesday. The reality, however, is that the NFL calls the shots in the broadcast relationships, where “the customer is always right” has been turned on its head, for years.

 

That’s one of the benefits of having a highly valuable product and limited supply. Big Shield calls the shots, and Christmas 2024 might bring a new customer to the table. Along with a whole lot of money for the league.

 

2025 DRAFT

Our first 2025 Mock Draft goes to Warren Sharp:

1. Carolina Panthers,

Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia

Maybe someone will rise up the ranks during the year, but as of now, there isn’t a quarterback worthy of the No. 1 selection. We’ll learn a lot more about Williams this year as he steps into a larger role, but he blends power and speed as well as anyone in college football an impressive statement about someone who was still a teenager last season.

 

Key stat to know about Mykel Williams:

Generated a 15.1% pressure rate when lined up on the edge and a 9.1% pressure rate when lined up on the interior.

 

2. New England Patriots

Will Campbell, OT, LSU

Campbell was a four-star prospect in the class of 2022 and immediately took over the left tackle job at LSU. The 6-foot-6 lineman would be a great fit in New England, protecting Drake Maye’s blind side.

 

Key stat to know about Will Campbell:

Allowed a blown-block rate of 3.5% when the quarterback took a traditional dropback (three or more steps), the fourth lowest rate among SEC offensive tackles.

 

3. Tennessee Titans

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

McMillan is a 6-foot-4 outside weapon who reportedly hit 22 mph last year in practice. If he builds upon his breakout 2023 campaign, he will likely be next year’s class’s most coveted offensive weapon.

 

Key stat to know about Tetairoa McMillan:

Based on route-adjusted data, he generated a catch rate 13.6% above expected on explosive routes (routes that produce an average of 20 yards or more per reception).

 

4. Denver Broncos

James Pearce Jr, EDGE, Tennessee

Pearce is an athletic weapon on the edge who wins with pure speed but will need to continue adding weight and strength to unlock his full potential.

 

Key stat to know about James Pearce Jr:

When lined up on the edge, Pearce generated a 22.4% pressure rate, ranked second among Power Five edge-rushers behind the Colts’ recent first-round pick Laiatu Latu.

 

5. Las Vegas Raiders,

Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama

The 2025 quarterback class is tough to figure out. No one looks like a first-round pick right now, but we will undoubtedly see some guys develop. Milroe is as good a bet as any given his athleticism and downfield passing ability. He also gets to work with new head coach Kalen DeBoer, who turned his last two quarterbacks into draft picks (Jake Haener and Michael Penix Jr.).

 

Key stat to know about Jalen Milroe:

Ranked third out of 14 SEC quarterbacks in on-target rate on throws of 20 or more yards.

 

6. New York Giants

Mason Graham, DL, Michigan

Graham is an athletic interior defensive lineman who was arguably the best all-around defender for Michigan’s championship squad as a true sophomore.

 

Key stat to know about Mason Graham:

Ranked 12th among Power Five interior pass-rushers with a 9.3% pressure rate.

 

7. Washington Commanders

Abdul Carter, LB, Penn State

Carter is Penn State’s latest hybrid linebacker/edge rusher, so prepare yourself for a year of Micah Parsons comparisons. 

 

Key stat to know about Abdul Carter:

Blitzed on 30% of his snaps against the pass last year, generating a 28% pressure rate.

 

8. Arizona Cardinals

Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri

Burden is next year’s version of Malik Nabers. Though he lacks ideal size, he can stretch the field with his speed and is a weapon after the catch.

 

Key stat to know about Luther Burden III:

Generated 18% more yards after catch than expected based on route-adjusted data.

 

9. New Orleans Saints

Nic Scourton, EDGE, Texas A&M

Scourton wins with a blend of power and speed and terrorizes opponents with a nasty spin move. He’s entering his first year at Texas A&M after a dominant season as a true sophomore at Purdue.

 

Key stat to know about Nic Scourton:

Generated a 16% pressure rate in five games against opponents ranked in the top 50 of pressure rate allowed. 

 

10. Minnesota Vikings

Harold Perkins Jr, LB, LSU

At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Perkins is built like an off-ball linebacker, which isn’t a typical top-10 pick in this era of football. However, he’s such a dangerous weapon when used as a pass-rusher that a blitz-heavy team is going to value his skill set.

 

Key stat to know about Harold Perkins Jr:

Blitzed on 34% of his snaps against the pass, generating a 17.2% pressure rate.

 

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tacario Davis, CB, Arizona

Davis has rare size for the position (he’s listed as 6-foot-4), and he consistently uses it to get his hands on the ball in coverage.

 

Key stat to know about Tacario Davis:

Generated a ball-hawk rate 94% above expected based on route-adjusted data.

 

12. Seattle Seahawks

Carson Beck, QB, Georgia

Beck doesn’t have the athletic traits most teams are looking for in a quarterback these days, but he’s a poised pocket passer with a strong arm who could excel if surrounded by the right weapons to suit his strengths.

 

Key stat to know about Carson Beck:

Generated a 59.4% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, one of only two SEC quarterbacks above 50% (Jayden Daniels).

 

13. Indianapolis Colts

Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame

Morrison won a starting job as a true freshman in 2022 and has been on the rise ever since. He wins with athletic traits and could elevate his stock further by becoming more physical in coverage.

 

Key stat to know about Benjamin Morrison:

Allowed three receptions when targeted in coverage at 10 or more yards downfield.

 

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

 Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

Johnson’s size and athleticism set an exciting ceiling, but his production was inconsistent during his first full year as a starter in 2023.

 

Key stat to know about Will Johnson:

Generated a ball-hawk rate 7.2% above expected based on route-adjusted data.

 

15. Jacksonville Jaguars

Wyatt Milum, OT, West Virginia

The 6-foot-6 Milum already has 32 starts under his belt, spending the last two seasons as West Virginia’s left tackle. Others might have more exciting traits, but Milum is as polished as any lineman in the 2025 class.

 

Key stat to know about Wyatt Milum:

West Virginia averaged 2.9 yards before contact when running to Milum’s gap and 2.0 yards before contact on all other rush attempts.

 

16. Cleveland Browns

Deone Walker, DL, Kentucky

The 348-pound Walker falls into the Vita Vea or Dontari Poe category of guys who shouldn’t be able to move this well at that size. Though he can certainly play the role of a traditional space-eating nose tackle, Walker also makes a significant impact as a pass-rusher.

 

Key stat to know about Deone Walker:

Generated a 9.9% pressure rate when lined up on the interior defensive line, ranked second in the SEC.

 

17. Los Angeles Rams

Fernando Carmona Jr, OT, Arkansas

Carmona spent the last two years as San Jose State’s starting left tackle. If he maintains his dominance in the SEC, he’ll continue his ascent up draft boards.

 

Key stat to know about Fernando Carmona Jr:

Allowed a 2.7% blown block rate when quarterbacks took a traditional dropback, the lowest rate among Mountain West left tackles.

 

18. Chicago Bears

Patrick Payton, EDGE, Florida State

Payton needs to elevate his game to another level to justify this spot, but few players can match his combination of length and athleticism. He joined Florida State as a 205-point linebacker, so the maturation process has been ongoing, and he might be ready to break out this fall.

 

Key stat to know about Patrick Payton:

Generated a 13.7% pressure rate when lined up on the edge.

 

19. Los Angeles Chargers

Princely Umanmielen, EDGE, Ole Miss

Umanmielen surprisingly chose to stay in college for a fifth year, while transferring from Florida to Ole Miss, despite posting dominant numbers over the last few seasons. He was even in last year’s way-too-early mock draft.

 

Key stat to know about Princely Umanmielen:

Generated a 20% pressure rate when lined up on the edge, sixth among Power Five pass rushers.

 

20. Atlanta Falcons

Travis Hunter, CB, Colorado

Hunter plays cornerback and receiver at Colorado, but his NFL future is likely on the defensive side of the ball. He’s still developing, but he’s already able to use his size and receiver skills to demonstrate ball-hawk production.

 

Key stat to know about Travis Hunter:

Allowed a catch rate 8.4% below expected based on route-adjusted data.

 

21. Miami Dolphins

Andrew Mukuba, S, Texas

Mukaba took the field as a starter on opening weekend as a true freshman in 2021, an impressive feat at a program stacked with defensive talent. He played all over the Clemson secondary for two years, primarily in the slot, before landing at Texas this offseason.

 

Key stat to know about Andrew Mukuba:

Allowed six receptions for 77 yards on 22 targets in coverage while lined up in the slot.

 

22. New York Jets,

Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Ewers made significant progress from his first to second year at Texas, and we should bet on Steve Sarkisian developing him further. Sarkisian has had nine primary quarterbacks throughout his coaching career. Six landed in the first round of the NFL draft. 

 

Key stat to know about Quinn Ewers:

Ranked second in Big 12 with a 60.5% on-target rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield.

 

23. Green Bay Packers

Bear Alexander, DL, USC

Alexander, a transfer from Georgia, frequently lined up at nose tackle for USC last season but also played some three-tech where he flashed exciting pass-rush potential.  

 

Key stat to know about Bear Alexander:

Generated a 12.5% pressure rate when lined up in the three-technique position.

 

24. Dallas Cowboys

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

It’s hard to avoid a Doug Martin comparison given Jeanty’s blend of power and speed in a compact build. Just call him Muscle Hamster 2.0.   

 

Key stat to know about Ashton Jeanty:

Generated 33% more yards than expected when accounting for defenders in the box and the inside/outside direction of the run.

 

25. Philadelphia Eagles

Kelvin Banks, OL, Texas

Banks took over the left tackle job at Texas as a true freshman and has held down that spot for two seasons. It’s unclear if he can stick at tackle in the pros. He might be more valued for his power on the interior.   

 

Key stat to know about Kelvin Banks:

Allowed a 2.9% blown block rate on traditional dropbacks, ranked fifth among Big 12 left tackles.

 

26. Houston Texans

Azareye’h Thomas, CB, Florida State

Thomas has not yet been a full time starter, but the former four-star prospect has impressive size and was dominant in a significant role last season.

 

Key stat to know about Azareye’h Thomas:

Allowed a catch rate 29% below expected based on route-adjusted data.

 

27. Cincinnati Bengals

Jack Sawyer, EDGE, Ohio State

Sawyer plays with a blend of speed and power that likely would have put him in the first-round conversation in 2024, but he was among the group of Buckeyes who surprisingly elected to return to school.

 

Key stat to know about Jack Sawyer:

Generated a 14% pressure rate when quarterbacks took a traditional dropback.

 

28. Buffalo Bills

Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State

Horton’s decision to return to school was shocking considering his impressive body of work at Nevada and Colorado State. With a special blend of size and speed, he affects the game at all levels.

 

Key stat to know about Tory Horton:

Generated a catch rate 15% above expected based on route-adjusted data.

 

29. Detroit Lions

Earnest Greene III, OL, Georgia

Greene, a former four-star prospect, took over the left tackle job as a redshirt freshman last year, though he may have a higher ceiling at guard due to his size and strength.

 

Key stat to know about Earnest Greene III:

Allowed a 5.0% blown block rate when the quarterback took a traditional dropback.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens

Ricky White, WR, UNLV

White started his career at Michigan State and spent the last two years at UNLV, where he had a breakout performance in 2023. He can stretch the field while also operating as a YAC weapon on shorter routes.

 

Key stat to know about Ricky White:

Caught 94% of his on-target opportunities at 15 or more yards downfield, which ranked eighth out of 89 qualifying FBS receivers.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers

Emery Jones, OT, LSU

Jones took over the right tackle job in his second career game as a true freshman in 2023, and his stock has been on the rise ever since. 

 

Key stat to know about Emery Jones:

Allowed a 3.2% pressure rate when the quarterback took a traditional dropback.

 

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Dani Dennis-Sutton, EDGE, Penn State

Dennis-Sutton played a significant role in the Penn State defensive line rotation last year, though 2024 will be his first season as a full-time starter. He’s already made his mark as a pass rusher, with high expectations entering his true junior year.

 

Key stat to know about Dani Dennis-Sutton:

Generated a 13.4% pressure rate when lined up on the edge.