CHICAGO

The things you see on Twitter/X.

@Jake_B30

Jay Cutler

7 OC’s in 9 years

Took the blame for everything

Mitch Trubisky

3 OC’s in 4 years

Took the blame for everything

Justin Fields

3 OC’s in 3 years

Taking the blame for everything

The #Bears have had 5 HCs since 2009 and 13 different play callers…

It’s organizational!

MINNESOTA

The DB is heading to his Fantasy roster to drop DB ALEXANDER MATTISON from this week’s lineup.

Mattison (concussion) was listed as a non-participant on Wednesday’s practice estimate.

Mattison departed this past Sunday’s win against the Saints with a head injury and eventually was confirmed to be in the concussion protocol Monday. With no on-field work to speak of to begin Week 11 prep, he doesn’t appear to be in a great spot ahead of Sunday’s game at Denver. If Mattison is unable to gain clearance from an independent neurologist by Saturday, the Vikings may be forced to use the combination of Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu out of their backfield this weekend.

– – –

Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler wonder where QB KIRK COUSINS will be playing next year:

Get out your crystal ball: Where will Kirk Cousins be playing in 2024?

Fowler: I’ve started asking teams about this, and Atlanta comes up fairly often. The Falcons have improved their roster and need a quarterback to bring it all together. What coach Arthur Smith does on offense meshes with Cousins’ ability to utilize play-action. Cousins would find comfort in Atlanta’s talented roster of playmakers, similar to what he had in Minnesota. The chance to win is there. And though Cousins will be expensive, he is going on his fifth NFL contract (excluding franchise tags from the Washington days) and will turn 36 in August. A team set to have $36 million in cap space in 2024 should be able to handle his potential deal.

Graziano: The Falcons are a good one, Jeremy. My sleeper is Green Bay. Jordan Love doesn’t look like the answer, and while the Packers are as patient as any team in the league, they’re also used to winning. Cousins knows the Packers’ offense because it’s a derivative of Kyle Shanahan’s scheme from their time together in Washington, and Cousins and Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur could work well together.

I recognize this is out of left field and completely different from any way the Packers usually operate. But Love’s “extension” includes a palatable $5.5 million in guaranteed salary in 2024 and nothing thereafter. If they get to the end of this season and decide Love isn’t the guy moving forward, the Packers might not feel like drafting another guy and waiting for him to develop. And even if they do that, Cousins could be the solution in the meantime for a team with a promising young wide receiver group.

Fowler: Yeah, these last eight games are crucial for Love. He is a really good thrower of the football with a bit of that gunslinger mentality that makes him turnover-prone. Operating more cleanly down the stretch could help chart a path in 2024 with Green Bay.

Do we totally take the 49ers off the table at this point? It seems like Brock Purdy is the long-term answer, with a rookie contract that’s friendly for roster building. But the thought of Cousins and Shanahan reuniting is still intriguing to many around the league.

Graziano: Without a doubt, but Purdy would have to really fall apart for that to be a consideration. And this 49ers offense seems to set up Purdy very well for success. He’s leading the league in QBR! Factor in all the high salaries the Niners already have, along with looming contract extension decisions on guys like Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Young and Talanoa Hufanga, and the fact that Purdy’s 2024 cap number sits at $1.004 million probably keeps the Niners from looking to spend big in the free agent QB market.

WASHINGTON

QB SAM HOWELL professes not to notice his gaudy statistics.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been on a tear the last three weeks.

Howell thrown for 1,034 yards and eight touchdowns in a run that has led to a lot of chatter about how the Commanders have found their quarterback for the present and future. The run has also lifted him to the top spot in the league in passing yards with 2,783 on the year, but neither the platitudes nor the spot on the leaderboard are what Howell says he’s most focused on right now.

Howell said on Wednesday that he hasn’t “really noticed” the positive reviews that he’s been earning in recent weeks and that leading the league in passing doesn’t mean as much to him as the team’s 4-6 record.

“Honestly, I don’t really look at it a whole lot,” Howell said, via a transcript from the team. “It doesn’t really mean much to me. Obviously, I want to go out there every single weekend, play well and give our team a chance to win. Obviously, we haven’t won enough games. We haven’t won the games that I feel like we should have won this season. So that’s a little bit disappointing, but I really don’t look too much into what I’m doing on a personal level. I look more into what we’re doing as a team and just how I can improve for this football team and how I can put this football team in better chances to win football games.”

One of Washington’s losses was a 14-7 dud on the road against the Giants in Week Seven and the team can’t afford another one when the Giants pay them a visit this weekend. They’ll then have a quick turnaround to Dallas on Thanksgiving and a home game against the Dolphins before a Week 14 bye, so the next few weeks will determine what chance Washington has at the playoffs in what they hope will be the start of a long run under center for Howell.

CAROLINA

Frank Reich will return to the playcaller’s role.  Rhiannon Walker of YahooSports.com:

The Thomas Brown play-calling experience in Carolina is over.

Two days after Carolina Panthers head coach Frank Reich said he was “still evaluating” who would call the plays in the team’s Week 11 matchup versus the Dallas Cowboys, the coach ended the speculation at the beginning of his news conference Wednesday.

“Just to get started, because I know someone will ask — regarding the play-calling — I am gonna resume the play-calling duties,” Reich told reporters. “This is not about Thomas. This is about me, it’s about the team. I’m in the position I’m in because of years of being a successful offensive coordinator and play-caller. We have eight games left, and I just wanna give my attention and everything I can do and everything I can bring to bear to help the offense take a next step.”

After being named the play-caller heading into Carolina’s Week 7 bye, things started off … well for Brown in his first game. The Panthers won their only game of the season while he was in charge — a 15-13 victory over then 3-3 Houston Texans and second overall pick C.J. Stroud.

After that, though, the offense has looked absolutely anemic and has scored only one offensive touchdown since.

Reich said that the process will be a shared responsibility and this isn’t a punishment for Brown.

“It’ll still be collaborative,” Reich said. “Thomas is still running the show as far as the offense and all the install meetings and game-planning. He’s still right at the center, me and him working together like we’ve been all year. I trust Thomas more than anybody, and he’s helped me become a better coach and a better man. So this isn’t about that. This is about the team, this is about us all playing the role that we think can help us these last eight games.”

In October, Reich informed reporters that he would be delegating the play-calling responsibilities to Brown. The team was 0-6 and needed a spark, so it switched things up. In the end, though, the results were worse.

Carolina’s offense averaged less in every pertinent category. The Panthers scored five fewer points per game, threw for 23.7 fewer yards and rushed for 23 fewer yards, too, in the three games that Brown called plays.

Quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in April, also suffered. Compared to the six touchdowns and four interceptions he tossed while Reich was running the show, he threw two touchdowns to three interceptions under Brown.

Young, for his part, said the right things in the aftermath of the news. During his weekly podium time, the signal-caller said he trusts the decision-making of the coaches, and it’s up to the players to execute the plays no matter who is calling them.

SAN FRANCISCO

Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com looks at what we’ve learned from 17 games worth of QB BROCK PURDY:

It hasn’t quite been a year since Brock Purdy took over as the San Francisco 49ers’ starting quarterback. It has, however, been 17 games, which means Purdy’s sample is no longer small.

Not that Purdy has time to worry about such career benchmarks. That’s why the second-year quarterback was surprised when informed Sunday after San Francisco’s 34-3 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars that he now had a full season’s worth of starts under his belt.

“I didn’t know that,” Purdy told ESPN. “It went quick. That’s crazy to think about.”

Purdy made his first NFL start on Dec. 11, 2022, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coincidentally, he will start his second cycle through the league Sunday against those same Bucs, whom the 49ers host Sunday at Levi’s Stadium (4:05 p.m. ET, Fox).

Throughout Purdy’s stint as starter, there have been plenty of ups, a few downs, a devastating injury and almost nonstop outside chatter about whether he’s the quarterback who can get the 49ers their sixth Super Bowl title.

Which makes now a great time to look at what’s fact and what’s fiction about the start of Purdy’s career, using five different realities and misconceptions as the 49ers look to their future.

Note: For the purposes of this exercise, we’ve included the relief appearance against Miami in Week 13 last season in which he played about three quarters. Adding that to the less than one quarter he played in the NFC title game makes for a full 17th game.

The 49ers believe Purdy can be their quarterback long term: FACT

Coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have believed in Purdy from the moment he stepped in against the Dolphins to replace an injured Jimmy Garoppolo.

Short of Tom Brady deciding he wanted to extend his career in San Francisco, Purdy was always going to be the Niners’ starter this season so long as he was fully recovered from the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow he suffered in the NFC Championship Game loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Since overcoming that hurdle early in training camp, Purdy has done nothing to lessen Shanahan’s faith in him. Even during the Niners’ recent three-game losing streak in which Purdy threw five interceptions, Shanahan scoffed at the idea of benching his 23-year-old quarterback.

“I love having a guy who isn’t thinking about that,” Shanahan said of Purdy, who has thrown for 2,329 yards and 15 touchdown passes to five interceptions on 172-of-250 passing this season. “He’s trying to make the right decisions, letting it rip, and he’ll live with the consequences and try and get better when it’s not.”

In Purdy’s 17 starts, the Niners have gone 13-4, and he ranks second in the NFL in QBR (72.7), first in yards per attempt (8.9), sixth in completion rate (68.1%), fifth in touchdown passes (31) and third in touchdown-to-interception ratio (3.9).

Whether outside observers choose to believe it, the Niners see Purdy as their quarterback for the short and long term.

Purdy throws to only wide-open pass-catchers: FICTION

One of the so-called knocks on Purdy is that he is constantly throwing the ball to teammates with no defenders in the same zip code. While Shanahan’s scheme and a talented group of skill position players make a big difference (more on this in a moment), Purdy’s receivers aren’t necessarily more open than anyone else’s.

NFL Next Gen Stats tracks average separation for receivers at the time of the ball’s arrival. Those numbers can be skewed a bit by a quarterback’s arm strength (or lack thereof), but it’s a good indicator of how open a pass-catcher is when the ball arrives.

On Purdy’s pass attempts, the 49ers average 3.46 yards of separation, which is 17th in the NFL.

Purdy’s tight-window throw percentage is 10.8%, which is third lowest in the NFL, a sign that he isn’t often forcing the ball to someone who isn’t open. For context, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the lowest percentage in the league in this category.

Next Gen categorizes wide-open throws as those on which a pass-catcher has 5-plus yards of separation when the ball arrives. Purdy’s 21.3% wide-open percentage ranks 20th in the NFL.

There’s nothing wrong with throwing to open receivers; that’s a top requirement for the job. Purdy does that well, but on the whole his pass-catchers aren’t more open than even half the league’s other signal-callers.

Purdy benefits from one of the best groups of skill-position players and playcallers/designers in the league: FACT

Two things can be true at once, Purdy profits from an excellent scheme and surrounding talent while still doing his part to make it go. At its core, Shanahan’s offense remains a run-first scheme with back Christian McCaffrey as the focal point, which is why Purdy’s 26.3 pass attempts per game is 23rd in the league since he took over as starter.

Purdy also has tight end George Kittle, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and left tackle Trent Williams, all of whom are among the best in the league at their positions.

They all play a big role in Purdy ranking second (behind Mahomes) in the NFL in yards after catch per completion (6.24) since he became the starter. What’s more, Purdy’s pass-catchers are averaging 1.64 yards after catch more than expected, which is first in the NFL. The next closest team, the Houston Texans, are at 0.98.

Not that Purdy should apologize for taking advantage of a good situation, but there’s plenty of credit to go around for an offense that is first in offensive expected points added (plus-124.78) since Purdy stepped in.

Purdy needs to take better care of the ball, especially in close-and-late situations: FACT

During the Niners’ three-game losing streak, Purdy had six turnovers, including five interceptions. It was easily the most difficult stretch of his career.

On Sunday, Purdy was asked what has been the single biggest thing he has learned as a starter. He answered with little hesitation.

“Just not being stupid,” Purdy said. “Playing consistent football. If you can make the right decisions consistently over and over and over and not get bored, just take a profit with checkdowns and being smart, I think that allows you to have success as a quarterback. … A full season under my belt, 17 games now, that’s I think the biggest thing.”

The counting stats aren’t bad: Purdy has eight interceptions, tied for 12th fewest in the league among qualifying players, and he has lost just three fumbles. But Purdy also has tended to put the ball in harm’s way.

Pro Football Focus tracks turnover-worthy plays, which includes fumbles that the offense recovers and interceptable passes that the defense drops. Through nine games this year, Purdy has 14 turnover-worthy plays, sixth most in the NFL, and that comes after he had seven in 10 games in 2022.

Of more concern is that Purdy’s picks have come at the worst possible times. Three have been in the fourth quarter with the Niners trailing and in opponent territory, and six of his eight career interceptions have come in the second half when trailing.

While Purdy has a full season of games now, he still doesn’t have a big sample in attempting to lead comebacks. He was successful in Week 17 last year against the Las Vegas Raiders but was unable to do it during the three-game losing streak (not that Jake Moody missing a potential game-winning field goal in Cleveland was his fault). Still, Purdy is aware of his faults and working to get better at winning time.

“One thing about Brock is he always takes accountability of his mistakes and he wants to be the best version of him as possible, and that’s one thing we like about Brock here,” Samuel said.

Purdy not only doesn’t throw deep often but struggles when he does: FICTION

One of the biggest myths about Purdy is that he simply checks the ball down to his pass-catchers and they do all the work with yards after the catch. But the reason Purdy leads the NFL in yards-per-attempt average (8.9) since becoming the 49ers’ starting quarterback is because Purdy is pushing the ball down the field and his teammates are getting yards after the catch.

“I think Purdy has been more successful throwing the ball down the field than anyone that we’ve had since ’17,” Juszczyk said. “You really don’t see a ton of checkdowns because he’s been so successful getting it to that first read down the field.”

That’s not to say Purdy just airs it out, but he has moved the Niners into the middle of the pack in any measure of the deep ball since stepping in. Since he took over as Niners QB, Purdy’s 7.5 air yards per attempt ranks 19th in the league (ahead of Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and others). His 19.25 true air distance per completion is 12th, and 10.5% of his throws travel 20-plus air yards, which is 16th, ahead of many of the biggest names at the position and a major uptick from years past. Niners QBs threw 8.1% of their attempts 20-plus yards from 2017 until Purdy took over, last in the NFL.

More important, Purdy has been good at taking shots down the field. Among qualified QBs, he’s fourth in completion rate (52%), ninth in yards (779), eighth in yards per attempt (15.6), tied for sixth in touchdowns (six) and eighth in QBR (93.2) on throws traveling 20-plus air yards.

From a longer story from David Lombardi of The Athletic – this is a snapshot on Purdy and RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY – alone on the 49ers practice field on the Saturday that McCaffrey had arrived by trade from Carolina:

The 49ers didn’t practice on Saturday, but by then the star running back and a relatively anonymous 22-year-old rookie stood together on the otherwise empty field at the team facility, walking through Shanahan’s entire play script for the next day’s game.

These days, that rookie isn’t so anonymous anymore. He’s the top-rated quarterback in the NFL — Brock Purdy.

“To be honest, I wasn’t 100 percent focused on who this guy even was,” McCaffrey said, recalling his first interaction with Purdy on that Saturday. “This guy could’ve been anyone. I was just so dialed in on trying to learn the plays.”

Purdy, meanwhile, was the wide-eyed youngster who couldn’t help but soak in full exposure to All-Pro star power.

“I’m like, ‘Man, this is what greatness looks like,’” Purdy said. “I could tell just by the look in his eyes. When we were walking out to the field, he was determined. He wasn’t joking around or anything. He was just all business. And I was like, ‘Man, this guy’s for real.’

“And then we got out to the field and I was telling him about the running back tracks, checks and concepts. And the whole time, he wasn’t trying to big league me or anything. He was listening and willing to learn. That was huge for me. This guy’s different for a reason, and I could tell from his work ethic.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD is practicing and presumably good to go Sunday.  Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:

— Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was a full participant in practice Wednesday for the first time since he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb in Week 8.

Stafford, who did not play the following week against the Green Bay Packers, said he was able to get a full workload in as he and the Rams prepare to play the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. He said he expects to practice again Thursday and Friday.

Rams coach Sean McVay said earlier in the day that he doesn’t expect Stafford’s thumb injury to limit anything in the playbook against Seattle.

“I feel pretty confident in my ability to go out there and play at a pretty high level,” Stafford said.

Stafford was wearing a small wrap on his right thumb during practice, something he said was to help him “just in case I hit it again.”

“It’s good to be out there,” Stafford said. “I haven’t been out there, obviously, in a couple weeks, so it was kind of nice to just get back out there and get my feet wet again.”

Wednesday was Stafford’s second practice with backup quarterback Carson Wentz, who signed with the Rams during their Week 10 bye week. Stafford said Wentz was “eager to learn.”

“Guy wants to come in and figure it out,” Stafford said. “He’s a big dude, throws it well, moves well. Just as far as out there on the practice field, you can tell it’s understandable the talent that he has and some of the success he’s had in this league. It’s somewhat obvious to me. So I’m happy to have him and just happy he’s getting a shot to come in and help us out.”

And here is where you can find the Rams next year:

The Rams will move their practice facility from Thousand Oaks to its permanent home of Woodland Hills before the start of the 2024 season, the team announced Tuesday.

Rams chief operating officer Kevin Demoff made the announcement at Topanga Village, a mall that is part of the nearly 100 acres purchased by Rams owner Stan Kroenke last year. The Rams have not disclosed the price of Kroenke’s purchase, although the Village was purchased for $325 million in 2022, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The hope, Demoff said, is to make the move before the start of the offseason program in April, although the “drop-dead date” for transitioning to the new facility will be when the Rams return from training camp in August.

The Rams currently practice on the campus of California Lutheran University.

Although the Rams will make Woodland Hills their permanent home, the move this offseason will be to another temporary facility. There is no timeline for when the permanent buildings will be built, Demoff said.

Thousand Oaks and Woodland Hills are approximately 25 miles apart.

How long is the San Fernando Valley if both Thousand Oaks and Woodland Hills are both to the left/west as you come out of the 405 cut?  The answer is about 40 miles from Thousand Oaks to Burbank.

Right now, in Thousand Oaks, the Rams are about 50 miles from SoFi Stadium and LAX.

If you’re in Thousand Oaks and want to go to an Angels game – you have 75-mile one-way trip.

Or about the same distance as from the southern part of Staten Island, New York to the Linc in Philadelphia.

CLEVELAND

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com reminds us who the Browns had in a backup QB role in August:

When the Cleveland Browns signed Joshua Dobbs to a one-year, $2 million contract back in the spring, it was a smart move. Good backup quarterbacks are hard to find, Dobbs fit the Browns’ offense and he showed some good things in a late-season cameo with the Tennessee Titans last season. And $2 million is cheap for a viable backup QB.

Making a smart move doesn’t matter if you follow it up with a terrible one.

When the Browns traded Dobbs in August, it seemed like a minor move and it made sense to them. They got a fifth-round draft pick from the Arizona Cardinals for Dobbs and a seventh-round pick. Why not get a pick upgrade, no matter how minor, for a quarterback they wouldn’t use?

But this is the NFL. You never know what will happen. Deshaun Watson, who had missed three full games and most of a fourth earlier this season with a shoulder injury, will have season-ending shoulder surgery soon. The Browns, who have a 6-3 record, a favorable schedule and a good shot to win the AFC North, now have to turn back to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (reports indicate he could be the choice), P.J. Walker or another random quarterback option the rest of the season.

If the Browns miss the playoffs — they’ve been just once since the 2002 season, so postseasons berths are a big deal in Cleveland — trading Dobbs will look like a massive mistake. And Cleveland didn’t even get much back in return.

Browns traded Joshua Dobbs before the season

Late-round draft pick swaps are the NFL’s way of trading a player and making it seem like a team got something back in return. The Browns moving up to a fifth-rounder was fine, but was it worth the trouble?

In hindsight, absolutely not. Dobbs is becoming one of the best stories in the NFL. He was competitive in a bad Cardinals situation, then got traded to the Minnesota Vikings and has been a big part of two Vikings wins to keep Minnesota in a position to get a wild-card spot.

It’s amazing. Dobbs might be a big part of the Vikings overcoming a big quarterback injury to Kirk Cousins to make the playoffs. The Browns might miss the playoffs because they didn’t have someone like Dobbs when Watson went down for the season.

Even worse, the Browns were quite familiar with Dobbs. He signed with the team in 2022 and was on the roster until late November, when Watson came back from suspension and they cut him. Dobbs went to the Detroit Lions practice squad, the Titans signed him when they were in a desperate spot and gave him two late-season starts, then the Browns brought Dobbs back this offseason.

They knew what he could do and still traded him without any real backup plan.

“We had a high opinion of Josh,” Browns general manager Andrew Berry said back in October, the first time it looked bad the Browns had given away Dobbs to the Cardinals. “He had been here two seasons.

“I’ve often talked up here about the general manager’s role, having a foot in the present and a foot in the future. That consideration and that transaction had elements of that.”

At the time, rookie fifth-round pick Thompson-Robinson had looked good in preseason. However, he was still a fifth-round rookie and if Watson went down, the most likely outcome was that he would struggle if he had to play. Thompson-Robinson got one start on short notice with Watson out, looked bad and the Browns signed Walker off the practice squad to take over the starting job when Watson was out.

When the Browns traded Dobbs they were gambling heavily on Watson staying healthy and Thompson-Robinson being a playoff-level quarterback if Watson missed time. It was a massive loss on both ends. All to upgrade from a seventh-round pick to a fifth. It’s a reminder that any NFL transaction, even a relatively minor one, can have huge implications.

What will the Browns do now?

Despite all the names being tossed around Wednesday, it’s very unlikely any quarterback available in mid-November is helping the Browns.

Philip Rivers is fun to talk about, but he hasn’t played since 2020, didn’t look great that season and is about to turn 42 years old. Tom Brady? He has said he is done and he’s 46. Matt Ryan looked absolutely awful last season, but you think he’ll save the Browns’ season out of the CBS broadcast booth this year? Come on. None of those options even fits the Browns’ offense, which wants mobility in its quarterbacks. Even Carson Wentz was scooped up off the street by the Los Angeles Rams earlier this month.

These names are cool to talk about on social media, but pumping them up as viable options is disingenuous. Nobody out there is saving the Browns. Sorry.

It’s a shame. The Browns had a good shot to win the AFC North if Watson stayed healthy. Their defense is among the best in the NFL. They have looked like one of the NFL’s best teams when Watson was in the lineup.

Instead, the most likely outcome is the Browns struggle on offense the rest of the season and probably miss the playoffs in a loaded AFC. Even if they make the playoffs, it’s hard to see Thompson-Robinson or Walker leading a deep playoff run. But hey, enjoy that fifth-round pick, Cleveland.

John Breech of CBSSports.com goes through the same exercise with seven candidates to replace Watson:

“The one thing I will share is that we will add a quarterback at some point in the near future,” Berry said. “We do believe in carrying three quarterbacks between the active and the practice squad.”

When it comes to adding a QB, one thing the Browns won’t be able to do is make a trade. With the trade deadline now passed, that means they have only have two options for adding a quarterback: They can look to free agency or they can sign a player off another team’s practice squad.

So who could the Browns sign? If they want to make a splash, there are several quarterbacks available in free agency.

Let’s look at seven possible options in three different categories:

Retired guys

Tom Brady

The seven-time Super Bowl winner has been happily retired since February and he hasn’t shown any interest in returning just yet. After Aaron Rodgers went down, Brady was asked about playing for the Jets and he half-heartedly shot down the idea. The Jets have a bad offensive line and it would have been tough for Brady to survive behind that, but that’s not the case in Cleveland. The Browns have a strong roster from top to bottom and the addition of Brady would potentially make them a Super Bowl contender. It will be interesting to see if the Browns reach out to the 45-year-old, because if they do, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least contemplate taking the job, considering it would give him a legitimate shot at an eighth Super Bowl ring.

Philip Rivers

If the 49ers had won the NFC Championship game in January, they were going to call Rivers about possibly starting the Super Bowl (After Brock Purdy went down in that game, the 49ers didn’t really have many options). If Kyle Shanahan was ready to call Rivers, it’s something that the Browns should at least think about. The downside with Rivers, though, is that he hasn’t played since 2020. He’s also coaching high school football, but his season ended on Nov. 11 with a loss in the Alabama state playoffs. Also, Rivers said if he was ever needed, he’d only be able to play six to eight games. “I think in my mind in the last couple of years if a team had needed me, I might have had six or eight games left in me, but I’m not going into this fall thinking the same,” Rivers said in March. However, he did also say that after two years away, he’s probably “done.”

Free agents who still want to play

Nick Foles

Joe Flacco

These two are lumped together because they have a lot in common. Both quarterbacks have a Super Bowl win under their belt, but the NFL seems to have given up on both of them. Flacco and Foles have similar playing styles in that they have almost zero mobility, but they’re also not afraid to throw deep. If either guy is playing behind a strong offensive line, they could probably still be productive, which makes either one an intriguing option. If the Browns call Flacco, he would likely pick up the phone in a second. The former Ravens QB said in September that he has no plans to retire and that he would like to sign with a team this year.

Cam Newton

The former NFL MVP is a free agent and the interesting thing here is that Newton actually said earlier this year that he would be willing to play for the Browns. Back in April, Newton made a list of nine teams where he’d be willing to be the backup QB and the Browns made the cut. That being said, Newton hasn’t played since 2021, so it’s not clear how much he has left in the tank. Plus, with his playing style, you definitely want to have a little something in the tank if you’re going to return to the field.

Colt McCoy

McCoy is an option who actually has some ties to Cleveland. The veteran QB was drafted by the Browns in 2010 and he spent three seasons in Cleveland before moving on in 2013. The biggest upside to McCoy is that he would add a veteran presence to the QB room. Also, he has 36 career starts under his belt, so it won’t be an issue if the Browns need him to start. At worst, he would be a steadying presence in the QB room, and at best, he could start if called upon. McCoy, who is currently a free agent, spent his past two seasons in Arizona where he went 3-3 with the Cardinals.

Most realistic option

Kellen Mond

If the Browns are content to move forward with Walker and Thompson-Robinson as their top two quarterbacks, then Mond probably makes the most sense. The 24-year-old spent the 2022 season with the Browns, so he knows Kevin Stefanski’s offense pretty well. Mond actually went through training camp with the Browns in 2023 before being released in late August. The 2021 third-round pick is currently on the Colts practice squad and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if the Browns were to reach out.

Other practice squad options: Trevor Siemian (Jets), Jeff Driskel (Texans)

HOUSTON

The preseason Vegas number for over/under for wins for the Texans was 6.5.  They need to go 2-6 to cash the over.  The 5-5 Raiders were also at 6.5 so they need to go at least 2-7.  The 5-5 Colts were also at 6.5, same deal, at least 2-7 to cash.

At the other end of the spectrum, the 5-4 Bengals have to go 7-1 to top their number of 11.5.

– – –

LB DENZEL PERRYMAN will miss the next two games for his tendency to smash people in the head with his helmet.

Houston Texans linebacker Denzel Perryman’s three-game suspension for repeated violation of player safety rules was reduced upon appeal to two games by the NFL on Wednesday.

Perryman’s appeal was heard by James Thrash, who was jointly appointed by the league and the NFLPA. He will miss games against the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars and be eligible to return to the Texans’ active roster on Nov. 27.

Perryman was suspended following a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the Texans’ 30-27 win on Sunday. He was flagged for unnecessary roughness on the play.

In a letter to Perryman, NFL vice president of football operations Jon Runyan wrote that Perryman had an “unobstructed path” to Chase and “the illegal contact could have been avoided.” He also noted that Perryman has six such violations in his career, including in Week 2 against the Colts, for which he received a fine for violating the same rule.

“When players violate the rules intended to protect player safety on a repeated basis, and particularly when the violations carry with them a significant risk of injury to an opposing player, it is appropriate to impose substantially greater penalties,” Runyan wrote in his letter.

Perryman, 30, is second on the Texans with 41 tackles this season. This is first season with Houston, which improved to 5-4 with its victory over the Bengals.

NEW ENGLAND

Bill Barnwell on how the Patriots got to the basement and how they could get out:

At 2-8, the once-proud Patriots have the worst record in the AFC. They’ve been outscored by 97 points, a figure topped by only the Giants, who are starting their third-string quarterback. They are running out Jones, who looked like a franchise signal-caller during the 2021 season. The poise Jones showed as a rookie then has turned to flop sweat. The Pats look utterly broken on offense, and their quarterback looks to be getting worse each week.

A year ago, there was an easy solution: Move on from the ill-advised decision to hire Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense. Now, having replaced them with Bill O’Brien, Belichick is in a thornier situation. Jones has been struggling for the better part of two seasons. New England’s once-dominant defense has been a league-average unit, in part because of injuries. Belichick’s mercurial decisions with personnel usage from week to week are growing harder to understand, and they go over much better when his teams are winning than they do when they look lost.

With New England in the middle of a lost season, five seasons removed from its most recent playoff victory, and about to hit its bye week, there are going to be some tough conversations happening over the next several days. Should the Patriots really plan to fire or otherwise move on from Belichick — who has won six Super Bowl titles for the organization — either now or after the season? Should they permanently bench Jones, who is off the franchise quarterback track after excelling as a rookie? Everything feels up in the air.

Let’s have a thoughtful conversation about the Patriots before answering those questions. To understand what team owner Robert Kraft should do, you have to understand how this team got here. And while it might be simple to cast their decline around the departure of Tom Brady, the problems afflicting this organization began while Brady was still winning Super Bowls there.

It starts with the personnel

Throughout the majority of the Brady era, Belichick and the Patriots thrived by restocking the roster with draft picks. Belichick trading down throughout the draft repeatedly generated extra picks, giving the Patriots added capital even as they picked at the bottom of each round.

In the 20 years between Brady’s breakout in 2001 and drafting Jones with the No. 15 overall pick in 2021, Belichick had a total of three top-20 picks. The Pats still landed franchise cornerstones such as Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Vince Wilfork and Logan Mankins. Belichick added Wes Welker via trade and signed vets Stephon Gilmore and Rob Ninkovich in free agency, but drafting and developing talent was at the heart of the Patriot Way.

There inevitably was going to be a reset when Brady left, and the Patriots were going to need to rebuild their roster. They were going to have more cap space to add free agents around a young quarterback — as we’ll get to in a minute — but they were going to need to hit on their draft picks. With Brady, Gronkowski, McCourty and Julian Edelman in their 30s, they needed to land star power in the draft to build a new core.

They haven’t. I’ll go from 2015 to 2022, which gives us eight years of drafts. The Patriots had 28 picks in the top three rounds of those drafts. While a team can get lucky and land on a standout in the later rounds, those first three rounds are where a franchise typically is going to find key players. Some of these players played roles in helping New England win Super Bowls, but ask yourself this: How many of them were valued as significant players at the end of their rookie deals, either by the Patriots or another team? Did they earn a second contract for market-value money? If they’re still on their rookie deal, are they on pace to get one?

First-round picks: DT Malcom Brown, LT Isaiah Wynn, RB Sony Michel, WR N’Keal Harry, QB Mac Jones, G Cole Strange

The Patriots also had one first-round pick stripped as a result of Deflategate. They traded a first-rounder to acquire Brandin Cooks, but gained back a Round 1 pick when they dealt the much-traveled wideout to the Rams the following season. These guys should be forming the core of the current New England roster.

I’m not sure any of them have turned out to be successful. Brown was a solid defensive tackle who signed a modest deal with the Saints; he was out of football by age 28. Wynn tore his Achilles before making his NFL debut and was never able to stay healthy, playing more than 10 games just once in five seasons with the Pats. He’s on injured reserve with Miami. Michel helped the Patriots win a Super Bowl, but his production wasn’t appreciably different from an average back during that run. He was traded to the Rams after three seasons.

Harry was a disaster, and Jones seems to be melting down before our eyes. Strange was solid as a rookie in 2022, but he has struggled to stay healthy this season. At best, the Patriots landed one guy who might land a meaningful second deal from this group, and it’s Strange, who doesn’t play a high-value position and is 25 years old.

Did picking toward the bottom of the first round hurt the Patriots? Could we find better players who were taken after those picks? Of course. Even if we just take the very next player off the board at those respective positions, though, New England can’t feel good about who it landed. Would it be better off if it had selected Eddie Goldman, Braden Smith, Nick Chubb, Deebo Samuel, Kyle Trask and Cam Jurgens? The only place where the Patriots landed the better player was at quarterback, and Jones was drafted at No. 15, while Trask came off the board 49 picks later.

What about the second round?

Second-rounders: S Jordan Richards, CB Cyrus Jones, CB Duke Dawson, CB Joejuan Williams, S Kyle Dugger, LB Josh Uche, DT Christian Barmore, WR Tyquan Thornton

It’s not getting much better. Dugger is a very talented playmaker at safety, and Barmore has been better in Year 3 after injuries slowed him in 2022, but the meme of Belichick wasting his second-round picks on defensive backs who can’t play exists for a reason. Those first four selections started a total of nine games for the Patriots. Dawson never took a single regular-season snap before being dealt to the Broncos for a swap of late-round picks.

The other players might be more frustrating. Uche seemed to break out when the Patriots moved him into a pass-rushing role last season, as he racked up 11.5 sacks over an eight-game span. He has played only 34% of the snaps this season, though, and the Pats didn’t move the 25-year-old in a deal at the trade deadline, meaning he’ll likely leave for nothing in free agency after the season.

Thornton was supposed to be a much-needed burst of speed for the offense, but he suffered injuries that cost him time to start the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He’s now healthy, but he has been in and out of the lineup; he was active Sunday but didn’t play a single snap in the loss to the Colts.

Again: What would have happened if the Patriots had just taken the next guy who came off the board at each respective point of these selections? It’s not quite as clear of a gap, but the would-be Pats are better. James Sample, James Bradberry, Isaiah Oliver, Greedy Williams, Grant Delpit, Willie Gay, Alim McNeill and George Pickens would be on the New England roster. While there are a few disappointing players in there, Bradberry, Delpit, Gay, McNeill and particularly Pickens are all players the Patriots would love to add right now. Thornton was drafted two picks before the Steelers standout.

The Patriots also made several trades in Round 2. They moved up for Dawson, with the Bucs staying put and taking a much better corner in Carlton Davis. They moved down in a deal with the Panthers, where Carolina landed valuable tackle Taylor Moton. Belichick also sent a second-rounder to the Falcons for Mohamed Sanu in a deal that looked bad at the time and aged terribly.

Do things get better in Round 3? We can’t expect the hit rate to be great here, but owing to trades down and compensatory selections, the Pats had a whopping 14 third-round selections to fill out their roster. How did it go?

Third-rounders: EDGE Geneo Grissom, G Joe Thuney, QB Jacoby Brissett, DT Vincent Valentine, EDGE Derek Rivers, T Antonio Garcia, EDGE Chase Winovich, RB Damien Harris, OL Yodny Cajuste, LB Anfernee Jennings, TE Devin Asiasi, TE Dalton Keene, EDGE Ronnie Perkins, CB Marcus Jones

Gulp. Thuney turned out to be a dream selection at guard, as he played more than 99% of the snaps during his five years in New England before signing a record deal with the Chiefs in free agency. He’s also the only hit out of this group. Jones excelled as a punt returner and jack of all trades last season, but he has missed most of 2023 with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Even if you want to count on him as a potential hit, that’s 2-for-14.

Brissett was dealt to the Colts for reserve wideout Phillip Dorsett before emerging as a high-end backup quarterback, and Harris ran for 929 yards in 2021, but most of the players here didn’t have significant pro careers. It’s OK to not land stars in the third round, but a team is at least hoping to add players who will be rotational contributors. Grissom, Valentine, Rivers and Keene barely played in New England before leaving. Perkins never played a snap for the Patriots, while Garcia was never able to play an NFL down because of what was reported to be a lung condition. The Pats did use a third-rounder to add left tackle Trent Brown in a trade with the 49ers in 2018.

In all, that’s 28 players who should be making up a significant portion of the Patriots’ roster. I’d argue two were hits: Dugger and Thuney. You could argue Strange, Barmore and Marcus Jones are works in progress. In that eight-year span, the Patriots didn’t land a single star on the upper end of the positional spectrum. It’s difficult to land difference-makers at quarterback, edge rusher, left tackle and wide receiver in free agency, so teams have to take them in the draft. Belichick tried, but his shots didn’t land.

The good news is Belichick did appear to land a star with his first-round pick in 2023. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez was a revelation early, only to suffer a serious shoulder injury against the Cowboys. Second-rounder Keion White has mixed in along the defensive line, while third-rounder Marte Mapu has spent most of his time on special teams. Day 3 picks Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi have seen regular reps along the offensive line, and Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas have taken snaps at receiver, so this looks to be one of the more successful recent Belichick classes, especially if Gonzalez plays at a star level when he returns.

Are the draft classes proof Belichick is no longer capable of both coaching and running the personnel department? His former boss, Bill Parcells, famously once left the Patriots because he wasn’t allowed to “shop for the groceries.” Should the Patriots take away Belichick’s shopping privileges, even if doing so causes him to quit?

Maybe. Most executives don’t get eight years to prove themselves. If another general manager had Belichick’s past eight classes of drafts on his résumé, he would be out of a job. At the same time, we’re judging executives on small samples when it comes to top-100 picks, and general managers who look like draft geniuses can see their fortunes flip with time. Seahawks general manager John Schneider took multiple Hall of Famers early in his career, went through a lean run in which Seattle seemingly wasted its top picks each year, then nailed his 2022 and 2023 drafts. Belichick was an excellent drafter earlier in his career; did he suddenly lose his ability to identify talent?

The big free agent class of 2021

With the roster lacking talent and a cap situation precluding from the Patriots from spending money in 2020, Belichick did something he almost never did during the Brady era: go on a spending spree. He had been selective in spending money on stars such as Gilmore and Adalius Thomas in the past, but the veteran coach sprayed money across the board in the first couple of days of free agency in 2021.

While the Patriots let Thuney leave for a massive deal with the Chiefs, they responded by buying in bulk. Matthew Judon was the most notable name, but he was joined on defense by Jalen Mills, Davon Godchaux and Henry Anderson. In advance of drafting Jones in the first round of the draft that year, they signed a pair of veteran tight ends to big deals in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry while adding Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne at wide receiver.

Many of those deals came with questionable price tags, a surprise for a team that had been so good at reading the market and making prudent financial decisions when it had brought in talent over the prior two decades, especially on offense. Smith and Henry immediately became two of the league’s highest-paid tight ends, only for Belichick to almost exclusively use Smith as a blocker. Agholor got a two-year, $22 million deal in a stagnant market in which more valuable wideouts ended up settling for one-year pacts.

It’s true those moves added an immediate spark to that year’s roster, a trend that happens quite often when teams make significant free agent investments. (The 2015 Jets and 2016 Giants are classic examples of those one-year bumps.) The Pats went 10-7 and advanced to the postseason, but they were stomped by the Bills in a 47-17 blowout in the wild-card round. Outside of Judon, who continued to play like a star, those moves didn’t add star power and covered up holes from those missing draft picks with unspectacular talent making more than those picks would have earned, squeezing the Pats financially in the process.

As we sit here in 2023, most of that free agent class is either gone, injured or buried on the roster. Judon is out with a torn biceps, suffered in the same Cowboys loss as Gonzalez. Bourne was in the doghouse last season before regaining his role and then tearing his ACL in late October. Mills hasn’t played more than 41% of the defensive snaps in a single game this season. Smith is with the Falcons, and Anderson lasted one year before moving to Carolina. Only Henry and Godchaux are left in the roles New England was expecting them to play when they joined the team.

Belichick’s biggest free agent addition since then hasn’t been great, either. The Pats essentially swapped Jakobi Meyers for JuJu Smith-Schuster this past offseason, and that move hasn’t aged well. Smith-Schuster had played only more than 60% of the offensive snaps in a game once before Sunday. He missed two games with a concussion, and when he came back in Week 8, the Patriots held him out for most of the game before finally getting him onto the field after Bourne’s injury in the fourth quarter. Against the Colts, he was suddenly an every-down receiver, playing 67 of 68 snaps. He caught one pass for 9 yards.

The Belichick doghouse

More than any other team in football, the Patriots suffer from bizarre, impenetrable stretches of player usage that don’t seem tied to any sort of rhyme or reason. Belichick signed Smith-Schuster and doesn’t have great options at wide receiver. Why sit him behind other options for most of the season? Why was Jalen Reagor good enough to see his role go from 13 snaps in Week 6 to 48 snaps in the loss to Washington before playing one snap in the Colts game?

If that was just wide receiver, I’d argue it was just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic, but this happens throughout the roster. Take cornerback. After playing just 10 defensive snaps over the previous three weeks, the Patriots inserted Shaun Wade into the starting lineup for the first quarter against Washington. Wade then didn’t play a single defensive snap afterward, with Jack Jones and J.C Jackson instead taking over.

After the game, Belichick refused to be drawn on his decision, suggesting Jones and Jackson hadn’t been benched for disciplinary reasons and that Wade had earned an opportunity. (SI’s Albert Breer later reported that Jackson had indeed been benched for being late to the team hotel.) It’s unclear why that opportunity happened to end right at the beginning of the second quarter, Jackson wasn’t brought to Germany for the team’s trip, and Wade played 48 snaps to Jones’s nine against Indianapolis.

The Athletic’s Jeff Howe reported that Jackson and Jack Jones were benched because of their performance, and Belichick has a lengthy history of benching players after they make mistakes. I’ve followed this as a running joke over the past couple of years, but it’s truly remarkable: If you fumble, struggle or make a mental mistake and you’re not an irreplaceable player, there’s a good chance Belichick is going to pull you out of the game. (Jones was released on Monday afternoon.)

The Patriots don’t have many irreplaceable players these days, and you saw Belichick’s emotions get the better of him when he benched Jones in the fourth quarter Sunday after the dismal interception. Jones’ pass was truly disastrous, but there was little point in turning to a cold Bailey Zappe outside of punishing the starter for his mistake. Zappe made a terrible decision when he attempted a fake spike, threw into quadruple coverage and tossed a game-sealing interception.

Making dramatic decisions about who he’s going to play, being gruff about it with the media and instilling a culture of mistake-free football is great if it works. If it doesn’t, the Patriots could end up with something like the Matt Patricia era in Detroit, where a coach without Belichick’s gravitas loses his locker room, doesn’t adapt and ends up costing himself a job. Belichick is rightfully afforded a certain level of gravity and respect by his accomplishments, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’s still doing a good job of toeing the line between creating a culture of success and simply lashing out at players.

Does the Patriots’ winning formula still exist?

During the Brady era, the Patriots developed a well-earned reputation for executing at a high level. Things weren’t always perfect, but they rarely beat themselves. They made smart decisions. They managed the clock well and took advantage of the famous double-up at the end of the first half and start of the second. They were great on special teams and executed well late. Brady helped, of course, but many of those areas were outside of the quarterback’s purview.

The double-up around halftime was once a thing New England opponents feared on a weekly basis. Now, it’s a pleasant surprise when the Pats score twice in an entire game. Jones & Co. pulled it off six times between 2021 and 2022, but since kicking a pair of field goals on their final drive of the first half and the opening drive of the second half in last December’s win over the Cardinals, they have failed to execute a single double-up in their past 14 games. They’ve gone 2-12 in those contests, although their problems extend beyond simply failing to score on either side of the halftime show.

If you hear someone talking about how great the Patriots are on special teams, know they haven’t been paying attention. New England has collapsed there over the past few seasons. It still ranked No. 1 in special teams DVOA as recently as 2020, but it fell to 18th in 2021, ranked 32nd a year ago and was 29th through the first nine weeks of this season.

The Patriots probably will fall below 29th this week. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland missed a 35-yard field goal try Sunday, which prevented them from attempting what would have been a game-winning field goal on the final drive. Ryland is just 12-of-17. With returner Marcus Jones sidelined, his replacements have averaged just 6.8 yards per return, which ranks 27th. That doesn’t sound like a big deal, but the Pats also inherit the 27th-best average starting field position of any offense. When a team has no big-play ability and needs to string together first down after first down to score, every yard counts.

As for the late-game execution, you saw what happened Sunday. The Pats did pull out a 29-25 win over the Bills with a two-minute drill from Jones, but they came up short late on offense in losses to the Eagles and Commanders.

The 2022 season hinged on two late-game scenarios gone wrong. In the infamous loss to the Raiders, a 7-6 Patriots team was one fourth-and-10 stop away from taking over on downs and kneeling. Derek Carr converted to extend the game and then drove the Raiders 81 yards in just over a minute for the tying touchdown. The Patriots then drove to the edge of field goal range, called a useless draw with three seconds to go, and saw Meyers either lose his mind or execute the wildest plan to become a member of the Raiders you will ever see, throwing the ball to Chandler Jones on a lateral to hand Vegas a stunning victory.

The following week, the Pats were playing the Bengals close when they were handed a stroke of luck. A Ja’Marr Chase fumble gave them ball on Cincinnati’s side of the field, and Jones quickly drove them inside the 10-yard line. A Rhamondre Stevenson conversion set the Pats up with a first-and-goal from the 5-yard line with 1:07 to go in a four-point game, but Stevenson fumbled on the next play, handing the ball to the Bengals.

The Patriots were comfortable favorites to win both of those games in the final two minutes. If they won each of them, they would have been a 10-win team and probably would have made it to the postseason. Instead, they finished 8-9 and crashed out of the playoff picture, leading Belichick to make what appeared to be much-needed changes to the coaching staff.

A very familiar coaching staff

Something was peculiar about the candidates Belichick interviewed to replace Patricia and Judge. Each of the offensive coordinator options were qualified in their own way, but Belichick spoke to O’Brien, Patriots tight ends coach Matt Caley, Vikings wide receivers coach Keenan McCardell, then-Cardinals wideouts coach Shawn Jefferson and Oregon run game coordinator Adrian Klemm, who would later join the Pats as their offensive line coach.

All of those coaches have something in common: They already knew Belichick. Caley was on staff, while O’Brien already had a stint as the team’s quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator from 2009 to 2011. McCardell played for Belichick in Cleveland, while Jefferson was on the Patriots while Belichick served as Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator in 1996. Klemm, finally, was Belichick’s first draft pick after taking over the organization in 2000 and spent four years on the Pats’ offensive line.

Maybe this would be a minor concern if it was an isolated decision, but remember that Belichick hired two former coaches of his to run the offense before O’Brien. And when you look at the rest of Belichick’s staff, it fits into a few groups.

The Patriots have two coaches who used to be coaches under Belichick before leaving and returning in Judge and O’Brien. They have six coaches who were members of the organization as players, including Klemm and Jerod Mayo. They have two of Belichick’s children on the defensive side of the ball in Brian and Steve Belichick. Six other coaches on the staff have no pro experience outside of working under Belichick. The only exceptions are Will Lawing, who coached under O’Brien at Penn State and with the Texans, and Evan Rothstein, who worked under Patricia with the Lions before following him to New England.

It’s not my place to say that any of these coaches aren’t qualified, and I’m not suggesting that they aren’t suited for their roles. What is accurate, though, is that the Patriots are almost entirely staffed by coaches and players who either had preexisting relationships with Belichick or who had no pro coaching experience before joining the organization.

There’s nothing wrong with bringing through your own coaches when you’re the best to ever do it, but as the Patriots falter now, especially on the offensive side of the ball, is it fair to wonder whether they need some semblance of new blood or a creative mind who hasn’t learned under Belichick? The outside zone-heavy offense Patricia and Judge tried to install last season was a decade behind the cutting edge. O’Brien ran a modern offense at Alabama last season, but owing in part to the personnel issues, New England doesn’t look modern schematically.

Belichick wasn’t always this way. Remember that he was the one who brought in Chip Kelly to talk with the Pats and explore his usage of tempo before Kelly joined the Eagles as their coach. Nick Saban, one of Belichick’s friends, has a steady habit of bringing in fired coaches as analysts to help rebuild their careers while adding fresh ideas and experienced voices to the Alabama staff.

Belichick probably won’t have a half-dozen former coaches joining the organization, and O’Brien isn’t the biggest problem in New England, but the Patriots don’t look anything like the best offenses we see around the NFL schematically. Would they have been better off hiring someone like current Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to reimagine their offense? Should they let O’Brien mold it into something more like the Alabama attack Jones excelled in during his time there? Those should all be fair questions.

I don’t have those same concerns about the defense, because it has been the saving grace for the Pats over the past few seasons. Even with their drafting issues, they ranked third in EPA per play on defense in 2021 and second in 2022. They’re 17th this season, and that’s with losing their best pass-rusher (Judon) and their best cornerback (Gonzalez) for the season in Week 4.

It’s impossible to separate Belichick’s impact there versus that of Mayo and the other coaches, but I don’t believe the Patriots are behind the curve on the defensive side of the ball. If they fire Belichick or the coach otherwise chooses to retire, there’s a chance that whatever gains would be made by hiring an offensive coach might be countered by a Belichick-less defense taking a step backward.

What happens when teams fire a legendary coach?

One of the harsh realities of football is that even the greatest coaches typically lose their jobs. Belichick already has been fired once, when Art Modell said Belichick had sold him a “bill of goods” during his time in Cleveland. I don’t need to run through the record books to tell you how that move has turned out for all parties involved.

I wondered, though: What happens when a coach has already proved himself to be a legend and leaves? Do those organizations typically land on smart replacements? Do the coaches have another act elsewhere? There aren’t many comparable coaches to Belichick, but looking at coaches who have won at least two championships, let’s look at some legends to see what happened when they left their organizations:

Don Shula retired after a 9-7 season in 1995. The Dolphins hired a rather splashy replacement in former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson, but the two-time Super Bowl winner was blown out 38-3 and 62-7 in his two trips to the divisional round. Miami hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000.

Tom Landry was forced out by Cowboys team owner Jerry Jones after three consecutive losing seasons, culminating in a 3-13 season in 1988. He was replaced by Johnson, who saw Dallas drop to 1-15 in his first season before turning things around. Four years after Landry was fired, the Cowboys were champions.

Andy Reid was let go in Philadelphia after a 4-12 season in 2012, which marked Reid’s third losing season in 14 seasons with the Eagles. It has been retroactively treated as the natural ending point for an era, but at the time, many Philly fans saw Reid’s pass-happy style as too passive and thought he couldn’t pull out close games in the postseason. They hired Kelly, who lasted three seasons before giving way to Doug Pederson, Reid’s protege from the Chiefs. Pederson led the Eagles to a Super Bowl title in 2017.

Reid’s offense wasn’t past its sell-by date, and while he had struggles in the postseason, trading up for Patrick Mahomes magically turned him into a much better coach in January and February. Reid has transformed the Chiefs and won two Super Bowls over the past five years. It has worked out well for both parties.

Vince Lombardi gave up coaching duties for the Packers in 1968 and then left the general manager’s role in 1969. He joined Washington and led it to its first winning record in 15 years. He died before the 1970 season began. We don’t know how things would have gone for him in Washington, but the Packers won just one playoff game over the next 20 years before Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre turned around the franchise.

Chuck Noll retired after the 1991 season. His Steelers were still close to contention at 7-9, but they had made just one playoff trip over the previous seven seasons. Pittsburgh replaced Noll with 35-year-old coach Bill Cowher, who immediately took them back to the playoffs in each of his first six seasons at the helm, including a Super Bowl trip in 1995. Cowher finally won a title in 2005 and retired after a 8-8 season the following year, giving way to Mike Tomlin, who won his own championship two years later.

Several teams have needed to replace Bill Parcells, but the Big Tuna’s two title wins came with the Giants, who promoted Ray Handley from the offensive staff to replace the briefly retired coach. Handley inherited a Super Bowl winner and went 14-18 in two seasons before being fired and replaced by Dan Reeves. Handley never coached again.

Another two-time Super Bowl winner is Tom Coughlin, who was pushed out of New York after a 6-10 season in 2015. He has been replaced by Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmur, Judge and Brian Daboll, which should tell you how things have gone since.

Mike Shanahan was fired in 2008 after going 8-8 and 7-9 in two final seasons with the Broncos. The Bowlen family hired Josh McDaniels to replace Shanahan, but the former Patriots assistant was gone by the middle of Year 2. John Fox righted the ship before being replaced by former Shanahan assistant Gary Kubiak, who won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning and a great Denver defense.

Finally, Tom Flores was fired after a 5-10 season in 1988. It was just his second losing season in nine years with the Raiders, although he had failed to win a playoff game in four seasons since claiming Super Bowl XVIII. Team owner Al Davis replaced him with Shanahan, who was fired in the middle of his second season in a similar fashion to how and why McDaniels was let go in Denver. Art Shell took over and had the Raiders at 12-4 the following year, but the once-dominant Raiders have failed to win the Super Bowl in 35 tries after moving on from Flores.

I won’t include coaches such Joe Gibbs, George Seifert and Bill Walsh, who left while their teams were still among the best in football.

In looking through these examples, I was hoping to find some historical evidence hinting toward what happens when teams fire a successful coach. I’m not sure we have enough in the way of information one way or another. Instead, I found it’s extremely rare for a truly legendary coach to have a season as bad as the one Belichick is enduring. If you want to interpret that as this season being a horrible outlier or as proof that Belichick has lost it, that’s up to you.

What should the Patriots do now?

At 2-8, the Patriots are done competing for the playoffs. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them a 0.1% chance of making it to the postseason. The Upshot’s model suggests they would be only a 50-50 coin flip to make the playoffs if they ran the table the rest of the way, which would include wins over the Chargers, Chiefs and Bills. It’s probably not happening.

Assuming the Pats don’t make a dramatic recovery, let’s go over their various big decisions and what would or would not make sense. That starts with their coach.

Should they fire Belichick? I don’t believe they should. His work with the defense over the past few seasons suggests he’s still an incredible defensive coach. While the Pats have whiffed on a few second-round picks in the secondary, his ability to coax excellent results out of Day 3 picks and undrafted free agents isn’t random. The Patriots would suffer on defense if he left, even if they just promoted Mayo to the top job.

While Belichick’s star has flickered since Brady’s departure, there’s still some semblance of a legend here. His name still means a lot in NFL circles, which might help New England attract talent when money is close. If Belichick opens up his staff to fresh voices, coaches should want to work underneath him. As the most important voice in the organization, he still carries more weight than any other coach.

Belichick’s contractual status is famously a secret, but the future Hall of Famer is widely believed to be the league’s highest-paid coach. The Patriots would owe Belichick whatever’s left on his deal if they fired him, although all parties involved could negotiate a trade if one is to his liking.

The big-picture problem, though, is the Patriots can’t guarantee they’ll end up with a better coach than even the current version of Belichick by moving on. The Kraft family has needed to hire only two coaches since taking over majority ownership, and while it has chosen wisely in Belichick and predecessor Pete Carroll, most coaching hires don’t work. Unless Belichick is wholeheartedly dug in against any idea of change in New England, his positives outweigh the negatives.

Should they fire O’Brien? It depends. I don’t believe O’Brien is one of the biggest problems with this offense, but it’s also hard to look at what New England has done this season and believe that Jones has gotten much better than the guy we saw a year ago. The same bad habits Jones endured a year ago are rearing their head again in 2023. While O’Brien has implemented some of the Alabama flourishes that helped Jones excel as a college quarterback, this offense doesn’t have many easy solutions for the third-year pro.

I liked the decision to hire O’Brien, and I would endorse him sticking around, but I would give him more power to shape the offense to his liking.

If the Patriots fire O’Brien, it can’t be for the recently fired Josh McDaniels, even if Jones had his best season with the now-deposed Raiders coach in 2021. Belichick has to bring in an offensive mind whose primary experience has come outside of the Patriots’ system. It’s not as simple as hiring someone who has coached for Kyle Shanahan and/or Sean McVay, but Mike LaFleur would make sense. If the Chargers move on from Brandon Staley this offseason and don’t retain Kellen Moore, the former Cowboys coach would be an ideal candidate. Maybe they can’t fix Jones, but I’d like to see a fresh mind or two helping shape this offense.

Should they bench or move on from Jones? Over the rest of the season, no. It’s a waste of time. Zappe enjoyed a brief run as a cult hero for the Patriots in 2022, but he has posted a 34.2 QBR on 125 dropbacks over the past two seasons. (Jones is at 38.6 over that same stretch). The Patriots cut Zappe after camp in August, which tells us they weren’t afraid of losing him to another team for free on waivers. They were right, as Zappe cleared waivers and went to the practice squad. Rookie Malik Cunningham, who was rumored to be a bigger part of the offense before taking six snaps and being released, is also on the practice squad.

After the season, it’s a different story. The Patriots can’t head into 2024 with Jones as their unquestioned starter. Unless he dramatically turns things around in the second half, they will have little choice but to decline Jones’ fifth-year option for 2025, leaving him in a make-or-break contract year next season. He would cost only $2.8 million in 2024 if the Pats wanted to keep him as a backup, and he would theoretically have trade value, with the 49ers as an obvious landing spot given Kyle Shanahan’s reported interest before the Niners drafted Trey Lance.

All things considered, this won’t be the worst offseason if the Patriots do want to try to land a new starter under center. Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs all project to become free agents, as does Brissett. Fellow former Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo is a likely cap casualty in Las Vegas, and Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson could be trade options.

Of course, the Patriots also currently hold the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, a spot which would leave them agonizingly short of being able to pick quarterbacks Caleb Williams (USC) or Drake Maye (North Carolina) with one of the first two selections. If the Pats finish with one of the league’s two worst records, it would be difficult to pass up starting over at quarterback. At No. 3, they could try to move up or consider taking a passer such as Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) or J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) later in Round 1 or early in Round 2, but there’s no guarantee either will enter the draft. There’s still a lot of movement to go, but you get the idea: There are the top two spots, and then there’s everything else.

Whether it’s a veteran or a rookie with a significant chance of winning the job, there has to be a more notable name than Zappe competing with Jones in 2024.

OK, what are the moves the Patriots should make? In addition to adding fresh voices on the offensive side of the ball, they need to add help for Belichick in the front office. I still believe his instincts (and mathematical mind as an economics major) lead him to make smart decisions about how to maneuver up, down and around the draft. It’s tough to argue he has chosen the right players over nearly a decade-long span of drafts, though, and I’d want to see someone given meaningful power to make those decisions in the first few rounds of New England’s drafts.

This might be a trip wire for Belichick, who has exhibited no desire to hand over scouting or personnel duties to another person during his time with the team. He has formed successful partnerships in New England with Scott Pioli and Nick Caserio, though, and it’s fair to wonder if director of player personnel Matt Groh — another Patriots lifer — has been up to the task after Caserio left for the Texans in 2021. The Pats have lost lots of front office brainpower over the past decade; I would argue it’s time to bring in at least one experienced mind from outside the organization to play a meaningful role in player personnel.

That personnel executive, whoever they are, needs to prioritize getting this offense playmakers with speed. One stat I like to use to measure play-to-play speed is the 90th percentile max speed generated by a player across his snaps. This can still be usage-dependent, but the goal is to eliminate outlier plays where a player is just sprinting because of what’s happening around him (a long return or catch by another player or sprinting on a straight go route) to see who is actually fast on what amounts to a play where they’re not expected to max out their turbo button.

Among players with 100 offensive snaps or more, the only Patriots player who ranks in the top 75 here is Reagor, who is at 18.1 mph. Douglas is the only other offensive player in the top 125. The Dolphins have seven players in that same group. The Texans, this year’s stunning breakout offense, have six. Speed isn’t everything — and this stat isn’t a perfect measure — but I don’t think anyone watching New England would argue it looks fast on offense.

If the Patriots land the No. 3 overall pick and Williams and Maye are off the board, they have to run to the podium and draft top wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State). Belichick has not valued playmakers at that sort of level in the past, as he even required Randy Moss to take a pay cut when he traded a midround pick to land the future Hall of Famer from the Raiders in 2007, but the league has changed. Unless a team has a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback or the best tight end in league history, it needs at least one star wide receiver to keep an offense afloat. With all due respect to Edelman, the Patriots haven’t had that sort of game-changing playmaker in their passing attack since Gronkowski was at his peak in 2014-15.

Will adding new voices to help Belichick and playmakers for Jones fix the Patriots? Maybe not. They might require a more thorough overhaul. Belichick might not be the coach he once was. The roster might be too far gone. Jones might just not be a very good quarterback, even if he looked like a guy who could hold his own in 2021.

As I look closer at their situation, it’s tough to avoid remembering how this has really only been a recent run of dismal results for the Patriots. They were 6-4 through 10 games a year ago, and while there were clear problems with Patricia and Judge, it felt like Belichick would figure things out. The Pats were 9-4 with Jones as a rookie in 2021 before struggling down the stretch. Fans understandably aspire to more than a solid record and a playoff berth, but I don’t think Belichick is a materially different coach now than the one he was over most of the prior two seasons. Firing him would create more problems for the franchise, both now and in the years to come.