The Daily Briefing Thursday, November 17, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

CHICAGO

Scott Kacsmar:

@Scott Kacsmar

Only three teams in NFL history to lose 3 straight games despite scoring 25+ points and rushing for 100+ yards:

1965 49ers

1966 Giants

2022 Bears

Bears have scored 29+ and rushed for 240+ in all three of their losses.

MINNESOTA

Scott Kacsmar is a Vikings denier:

@Scott Kacsmar

But have my views changed on the Vikings, now 8-1, being a legit contender and vastly improved team this year? Um, no. Not really.

As I have said in past weeks, I still am seeing largely the same Minnesota team we always get, but things keep happening for them in close games, and not always by their own actions. The Vikings are now 7-0 in close games, including a 5-0 record at 4QC opportunities. This is unreal stuff from a team with a quarterback we never see this from.

But he does have this note:

@ScottKacsmar

Vikings can become the 1st team in NFL history to win 8 straight games by 1-8 points.

Currently tied with 1996 Jaguars and 2020 Chiefs with 7 straight.

– – –

The Vikings are bound and determined to throw the ball to WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON whether he is open or not.  Alec Lewis in The Athletic:

You saw the catch. Your parents saw the catch. Your siblings saw the catch. Even Tom Brady saw the catch.

“That was incredible,” Brady said of the play Monday night on his podcast with Larry Fitzgerald and Jim Gray.

On fourth-and-18, Justin Jefferson flew down the right sideline, jumped and lurched backward to try to make the catch. Bills cornerback Cam Lewis had both hands on the football. Jefferson snatched it away. He fell to the ground — the ball did not. The entire Vikings sideline went berserk.

“That has gotta be one of the great catches in NFL history,” Brady added.

A day later, Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs described things a bit less formally.

“I’m like, ‘Damn! That’s a good-ass catch,’” Diggs said on NFL Network.

Around the league, even defensive players marveled at Jefferson’s dazzling play. Cowboys defense back Jayron Kearse, who will face the Vikings this weekend, said Wednesday: “That’s just some of the things that he does to further prove a point of him being the best receiver doing it right now.”

Kearse summed up the situation well: Jefferson’s absurdly impressive catch is the flare signal that should draw rightful attention to what he’s been doing for weeks. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, the offensive staff and quarterback Kirk Cousins deserve credit, too. Together, they have navigated weekly defensive adjustments and adapted the offense to keep it not just functional but deadly, all while maintaining Jefferson’s starring role.

Want proof? Through nine games, Jefferson has accounted for a league-leading 44.4 percent of the Vikings’ receiving yards, according to TruMedia. Sounds like a lot, right?

Well, here’s some additional context: In the last 15 NFL seasons, only Brandon Marshall in 2012 with the Bears (47.4 percent) has accounted for a larger share of his team’s receiving yards through nine games.

Jefferson has amassed that figure not only through his own skill and adaptability but also the schematic and playmaking strategies those around him have deployed. For example, think back to his torching of the Packers in Week 1.

The Packers played zone coverage on 88.5 percent of their defensive plays against the Vikings. Jefferson tallied 184 yards on nine catches. O’Connell and the Vikings offensive staff called numerous over routes, where Jefferson broke free over the middle of the field. Cousins found him repeatedly, saying afterward: “I’m not going to try to force the ball to him, but certainly, if he’s open, we’re going to try to get him the football.”

The next couple of weeks, against Philadelphia and Detroit, Jefferson was not open as often. Both the Eagles and Lions challenged the Vikings with different looks: press coverage at the line of scrimmage, a safety over the top. Defenders even positioned themselves strategically with different leverage — one on the outside, another on the inside — so that Jefferson would be forced in specific directions on his routes.

Those around the league noticed.

Those were frustrating games for the 23-year-old Jefferson. During the Lions game, O’Connell sat with Jefferson on the sideline and explained that although the receiver was not racking up yards, he was dictating what defenses would do in ways that opened up opportunities for both the Vikings’ other receivers and the run game. O’Connell, though, knew he needed to find ways to get Jefferson the football.

“That’s not good enough,” O’Connell said after the Lions game. “I’ve got to do a better job getting Justin (looks by) lining up in different spots and personnel groupings — whatever I need to do to help.”

O’Connell scripted more plays that put Jefferson in motion. He even lined him up in the backfield. The result? From Week 4 to Week 6, Jefferson averaged nine catches a game for 136 yards.

Still, O’Connell believed Jefferson could do more. He knew the Vikings offense needed more.

The bye week had arrived, and at the time, the Vikings offense ranked 30th in explosive pass play rate. Cousins, meanwhile, was 37th among 38 qualified quarterbacks in the percentage of passes he was throwing that traveled more than 15 yards down the field. The fix, it turned out, was to throw more of these passes — especially to Jefferson.

In the Vikings’ first six games this season, Jefferson averaged 1.83 targets per game that traveled more than 15 yards in the air. In the three games after the bye, Jefferson averaged 4.67 targets per game that traveled more than 15 yards in the air.

The first notable heave happened against the Cardinals in Week 8. Trailing by three points in the third quarter, the Vikings faced a third down. Cardinals cornerback Antonio Hamilton shaded Jefferson toward the outside, which was problematic: The open patch of grass was on the outside.

The Vikings would win the game. “For Kirk to put it in the place he did, trusting JJ to make that play,” O’Connell said afterward, “I thought it was spectacular.”

Cousins had seen Jefferson make those types of plays before, dating back to the receiver’s rookie season. That first year, in a Week 3 loss to the Titans, Cousins lobbed up a go ball to Jefferson on third down. Jefferson high-pointed the pass. He ended up with seven catches for 175 yards on the day. It was then that Jefferson initially established that trust with his quarterback.

Kirk Cousins’ trust in Justin Jefferson makes the Vikings more dangerous than ever

After Jefferson caught the pass against Arizona, he used that same word: trust.

“It comes in a lot on those plays,” he said. “I wasn’t open. I was nowhere near open. Kirk gave me that opportunity.”

A week later, against the Commanders, Cousins gave him more. Jefferson caught one in the first quarter. Late in the second, Cousins hurled one toward the end zone, and the pass was intercepted.

Still, O’Connell highlighted the play after the game and applauded Cousins’ decision.

“I’m so proud of Kirk for throwing it,” O’Connell said. “We’re going to keep giving Justin those one-on-ones down the field in the red zone and in the field, just trying to generate chances to get our best player the football.”

Days before the Vikings’ game in Buffalo, before Jefferson made the catch that everyone saw, he was asked about the frequency of the 50/50 passes Cousins had started to throw his way.

“It’s all trust,” he said. “Every week, I’m trying to get him to throw some more of those contested throws. We’re working on it!”

The work Jefferson put in paid off. On Sunday, per Next Gen Stats, Jefferson averaged just 1.5 yards of separation from defenders, the third-lowest total in the NFL. But the lack of space did not prevent him from changing the game, in part because Cousins was willing to invite some risk for what could be a major reward.

Throughout his entire career, Cousins has prided himself on accuracy, good decision-making and limiting turnovers. All three qualities are essential to his longevity. That he has been willing to stretch the boundaries of his approach is a testament to his own willingness to adapt but also the skill level of Jefferson in those 50/50 chances.

This season, Jefferson has caught 76 percent of the passes thrown to him more than 15 yards down the field, which is the highest rate in the NFL among players with at least 25 such targets. No. 2 on the list is Mike Evans of the Buccaneers, who is four inches taller than Jefferson. Evans’ catch rate? 57.7 percent.

Over the last three games, the Vikings’ explosive pass play rate has jumped from 30th in the league to ninth. In that span, Cousins has ascended to seventh out of 30 qualified quarterbacks in pass attempts that have traveled more than 15 yards in the air.

How sustainable is this development? It’s unclear. But what is clear is that it will continue to rely on the presence of the 23-year-old whose catch against the Bills will follow him forever.

“His future is very bright,” Brady said. “I think what he becomes is gonna be up to his level of determination and discipline. But he’s obviously got the skill set and the desire. And if he keeps making plays like that, it’s gonna be something to watch as the years go by.”

NEW YORK GIANTS

Will RB SAQUON BARKLEY be on the free agent market come March?  Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:

The New York Giants and running back Saquon Barkley tabled talks over a contract extension last week, inviting the possibility the potential 2022 NFL rushing champion might play for a new team in 2023. Barkley leads the NFL with 931 rushing yards as Week 11 begins, a resurgent campaign from a 25-year-old rusher who is attempting to play his first full and injury-free season since 2018, when he was a rookie.

If Barkley indeed hits the market, what type of deal might he command, and who would be the best fit for his skills? ESPN NFL Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler considered that question

The NFL’s leading rusher Saquon Barkley appears headed for free agency. What do you expect the market for Barkley to be, and which team would you consider his most ideal fit?

Graziano: The franchise tag for running backs next year likely comes in around $12.5 million to $13 million, so if I’m Barkley and I hit the market, that’s the floor I’m setting. And he probably can’t go too far beyond that, because teams haven’t shown much willingness to blow out the top of the RB market. He looks like a guy who will have some appeal to a team with a lot of cap space (maybe with a starting QB on a rookie contract?) and is one explosive offensive player away from being a true contender.

Depending on how well they address the offensive line, he’d be a lot of fun lining up in the backfield with Justin Fields in Chicago, wouldn’t he? Or as the final piece for the Bills’ offense if they fall short of the Super Bowl again? Kansas City? There are lots of places where Saquon would make a big impact if he can stay healthy.

Fowler: Dan, the modern running back market has proven that only premium backs get paid, and even players who fit that category — Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb — were not able to reset the market with recent deals. That’s why I don’t expect a team to shell out Christian McCaffrey money ($16 million per year). That deal has become a true outlier. But it’s important to remember that, two years ago, many around the league considered Barkley the league’s top tailback talent. After 857 carries in five seasons and multiple injuries, durability will be a concern. Chubb’s contract — three years, $36.6 million with $20 million guaranteed — might be a nice comp for Barkley.

– – –

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com thinks there is an element of luck to the 7-2 record of the Giants:

Lucky: New York Giants (7-2)

What has gone right: One-score games, defensive performance in key situations

Even Giants fans would likely admit their team has run a little hot this season. Sunday’s 24-16 win over the Texans wasn’t quite as close as the final score — Houston kicked a futile field goal with seven seconds remaining — but the Giants have won games by the skin of their teeth. It started with the 21-20 victory over the Titans in the opener when Saquon Barkley ran through a tackle attempt to convert a 2-point conversion with 1:09 to go before Titans kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal.

The Giants are 5-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their biggest win has come by eight points. New York has been outscored 131-123 through the first three quarters of their games, but their plus-22 point differential in the fourth quarter ranks fifth in the league. They obviously aren’t saving all their money plays for the final 15 minutes or deliberately playing worse in the first 45.

While it certainly feels like the Giants have established a formula of keeping things close for three quarters before winning in the fourth, it’s tough to sustain that over an entire season. Take the 2006 Giants. Through the first 10 weeks of that season, they trailed their opponents by 19 points in the first three quarters, only to outscore opponents by 45 points in the fourth. Like the modern Giants, the 2006 team looked to be on the right track; they were 6-3 to start the season.

Over the final seven weeks, whatever skill those 2006 Giants had shown in the fourth quarter disappeared. Tom Coughlin’s team actually improved dramatically over the first three quarters of games, outscoring teams by a total of 28 points. In the fourth? They were outscored by 67 points, the worst mark of any team from Week 10 on. They finished 2-5, limped into the playoffs at 8-8 and lost in the wild-card round to the Eagles.

This season, coordinator Don Martindale has coaxed spectacular timing out of his defense. All defensive plays aren’t created equal — it’s important for a defense to be great on first down and in the middle of the field — but succeeding on third down and in the red zone matters most if a team hopes to win.

Guess where the Giants have exceeded expectations? Coordinator Don Martindale’s defense ranks 26th in EPA per play outside the red zone, but they’ve been the league’s best unit inside the 20 by the same metric. They’ve allowed teams to make it to the red zone at the third-highest rate on a per-game basis, but they’re only allowing those offenses to convert 38.2% of the time, a mark topped only by the Broncos.

On first and second down, the Giants have been the league’s fourth-worst defense by EPA per play. On third and fourth down? They morph into the third-best defense. Despite the fact that opposing offenses have the fifth-fewest yards to go to pick up third downs against the Giants, they’ve been the third-best defense at avoiding conversions.

Maybe Martindale’s exotic blitz concepts are flummoxing teams on third downs. I’m willing to believe that possibility, but he blitzes at the league’s second-highest rate on first and second down, too, and his defense isn’t as successful in those moments. There’s just no way the Giants can continue to be this good on third down and in the red zone if they don’t get better — much better — elsewhere on defense.

What it means: Facing the league’s sixth-toughest schedule over the rest of the season, I would be concerned about the Giants keeping up among the top teams in the NFC without improving their level of play.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Giants an 82% chance of making it to the postseason. While they should still be favored to advance into the playoffs, I wouldn’t be surprised if they posted a losing record over the second half of the season.

WASHINGTON

Winners of four of their last five, the Commanders are sticking with QB TAYLOR HEINICKE.  Peter Hailey of NBCSports.com:

Taylor Heinicke’s entertaining run as starting quarterback of the Commanders will continue for at least a little longer.T

As Ron Rivera explained in a press conference on Wednesday, Heinicke will get the nod in Houston versus the Texans. Carson Wentz, meanwhile, has been cleared by doctors to begin throwing but hasn’t yet been designated to return from injured reserve.

“It’s a good problem to have,” Rivera said of having Heinicke available to play and Wentz trying to get back to that stage as well.

Wentz wasn’t at the team’s walkthrough inside their practice bubble on Wednesday. Instead, he was working out on his own on a separate field outside.

In four games this season, Heinicke has thrown five touchdowns and four interceptions while posting a completion rate of 62%. The squad is 3-1 since he’s stepped into the huddle, which is an oversimplification of his individual impact but also something that has to be noted.

Now, Heinicke’s certainly had moments dating back to his Week 7 debut — his second-half effort in a victory over the Packers was solid, as was the majority of his night in the recent upset over the Eagles — and, as expected, he’s committed a few costly turnovers, too.

In all, the 29-year-old has been, at best, a slight upgrade over Wentz — though there are metrics that would even argue against that.

With Heinicke, however, solely accounting for the successes and failures that are measurable just isn’t enough. He’s not as talented as many at his position across the league (or as talented as Wentz, for that matter), but he boasts a personality that is infectious and his unique aura only seems to be growing the more he wins.

“The guys have rallied around him,” Rivera said.

While Rivera wouldn’t commit to Heinicke beyond this Sunday’s road affair or rule out Wentz being cleared later in the week, it feels like Heinicke can firmly claim the job should he walk off the field at NRG Stadium a winner once more.

– – –

Daniel Snyder’s days as a target of Democrats in the House of Representatives will come to an end in January.  Mark Maske of the Washington Post:

@MarkMaske

Now that the Republicans are projected to control the House, the Republicans on the Oversight Committee have issued a statement from Ranking Member James Comer on the status of the investigation of Daniel Snyder and the Commanders when Republicans assume control: “It’s over.”

Mike Florio:

The new Congress won’t convene until January. As noted by Maske, it’s expected that a report will be issued regarding the investigation before then, by the Democratic representatives who continue to control the Committee.

In many respects, the Oversight Committee’s probe has become moot. Commanders owner Daniel Snyder has put the team on the market. And other entities are investigating and/or litigating the same subject matter that Congress was exploring.

NEW ORLEANS

After thinking it over, the Saints are sticking with QB ANDY DALTON for at least another week per Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Saints will not be making a coaching change this week.

Saints head coach Dennis Allen said today that Andy Dalton will remain the starting quarterback for Sunday’s game against the Rams. Dalton has started the Saints’ last seven games after Jameis Winston started the first three.

The Saints are on a two-game losing streak and Dalton hasn’t played well in either games, and Winston has been healthy enough that he was active as the No. 2 quarterback, which led to growing questions about why Allen hadn’t gone back to Winston. But Allen said today that Winston is still not 100 percent healthy, even if he’s healthy enough that he could go if he had to.

And so the Saints — who despite their 3-7 record remain in contention in the NFC South — will stick with Dalton for at least one more week.

TAMPA BAY

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com says the Buccaneers have been unlucky:

Unlucky: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)

What has gone wrong: Fumble recoveries, tougher schedule, defensive red zone woes

Let’s start with the Bucs, who represent a classic example of how things can go wrong in the first half of a season. I won’t even touch on their injury woes, which cost them most of their offensive line and nearly all of their receivers for stretches of time. The injuries are going to linger into the second half, given that edge rusher Shaq Barrett (left Achilles) and center Ryan Jensen (left knee) are out for the season.

Take their performance on defense. Outside of the red zone, the Buccaneers have the league’s fifth-best defense by expected points added (EPA) per play. Inside the 20-yard line, though, they haven’t been anywhere near as effective. They rank 18th in EPA per play allowed in the red zone. Opposing teams have converted 63% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns against Tampa Bay, the eighth-highest rate in the league.

The Bucs ranked 10th in red zone conversion rate on defense in 2021. Past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but we know from the broader NFL that teams that play much worse in the red zone than they do outside of it typically see their red zone performance improve as the season progresses. A great defense, most of the time, typically will be great in the red zone or get there as it gets a larger sample.

Let’s go back to the first 10 weeks of the 2020 season. The Buccaneers were the second-best defense in the league in EPA per play outside of the 20-yard line, but they ranked 26th inside the red zone. Over the rest of the season and into the playoffs, that didn’t hold up; they ranked 12th outside the 20 and ninth inside the 20.

Tampa also has been unlucky when footballs have hit the ground this season. The average team recovers just under 58% of their fumbles on offense, but the Bucs only have recovered three of the nine balls they’ve put on the ground, or 33%. Doing the math, you can probably guess that teams recover a little more than 42% of the fumbles they force on the defensive side of the ball, but despite forcing 12, the Bucs only have recovered four. They’re tied with the Browns for the worst fumble recovery rate in the league.

There’s also that strength-of-schedule argument. A better way to put this than lucky might be “lopsided.” Per Football Outsiders, the Bucs played the 12th-toughest schedule through the first 10 weeks. While that might not seem too devastating, things are about to get a lot easier.

Just two of Tampa’s final seven games are against teams with winning records: A home game against the 5-4 Bengals and a road trip to play the 5-4 49ers. The Bucs get the Browns and Saints over the next two weeks and finish with the Cardinals, Panthers and Falcons. The Super Bowl LV champs likely will be favored in six of their remaining seven games.

What it means: The Bucs should be able to pull away from their competition in the NFC South and host a playoff game in January.

ARIZONA

The Cardinals may get WR MARQUISE “HOLLYWOOD” BROWN back this week.  Coral Smith at NFL.com:

The Arizona Cardinals announced Wednesday that wide receiver Hollywood Brown has been designated to return from injured reserve, opening his 21-day window to be activated to the 53-man roster.

After four weeks on the sidelines Brown is making his way back onto the field, starting with his return to practice on Wednesday. And his official return to the roster could happen sooner rather than later, as coach Kliff Kingsbury said Wednesday that there’s a chance that Brown could be ready to play by Arizona’s Monday night Mexico City showdown versus the 49ers in five days.

Brown was hurt during the Cardinals’ Week 6 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, leaping to try and haul in a late-game throw but landing awkwardly as the pass was intercepted. Brown was subsequently diagnosed with a non-surgical foot fracture and placed on injured reserve. The initial expectation for recovery time from this type of injury was six weeks, but Brown will be returning to practice after four weeks, the minimum required time for an IR stint.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD appears to be de-concussed.  Jordan Rodrigue of The Athletic:

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is expected to return Sunday against the Saints, pending his clearance from concussion protocol, coach Sean McVay told reporters Wednesday. Here’s what you need to know:

Stafford was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice.

Stafford has been in the protocol since last Tuesday and missed last week’s game against the Cardinals.

McVay said he expects Stafford will be fully cleared this week and play on Sunday.

Backstory

Stafford entered the concussion protocol last week following Los Angeles’ Week 9 loss to the Buccaneers. McVay said last week that it is the team’s understanding that Stafford’s symptoms stemmed from the game at Tampa Bay, and team physicians ascertained that Stafford needed to enter the protocol after a series of postgame questions and evaluations.

However, McVay has never actually confirmed that Stafford had a concussion (players with perceived symptoms still enter the protocol). When asked directly on Tuesday why he couldn’t say whether Stafford had been concussed or not, McVay replied, “that hasn’t been communicated to me. I just know he’s got to go through those steps. Whether he did or didn’t has not been communicated to me.”

Backup quarterback John Wolford missed Wednesday’s practice with a neck injury. Still, McVay expects Stafford to play if he is cleared. “If he is fully cleared and he and his family feel good about that, then I know he’s champing at the bit to be out there with his guys,” said McVay on Wednesday.

The Rams lost Stafford’s top offensive weapon last Sunday in wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who was placed on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain.

Timeline for Stafford to be cleared

Stafford is technically still in the five-step concussion protocol, but practicing fully is a late step in it. McVay estimated that Stafford would undergo the final clearance procedure Friday.

Offensive line remains a concern

The Rams will start their 10th iteration of a starting offensive line in 10 games against New Orleans on Sunday. In Stafford’s eight active games, the Rams offensive line has allowed 28 sacks and 103 pressures, according to TruMedia, which is tied for the third-worst pass protection in the NFL.

LAS VEGAS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com says the 2-7 Raiders have been both lucky and unlucky.  And their schedule is about to get harder:

Lucky and Unlucky: Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

What has gone right and wrong: The Raiders are being pulled to both poles of the luck spectrum. Their season is all but over. The Upshot’s playoff simulator suggests they would need to win out to earn a playoff berth. With games against the Chargers, 49ers and Chiefs still to come, that’s a big ask for the league’s most frustrating team.

Before the season, I wrote that the Raiders had been lucky to face a string of backup quarterbacks to finish last season. They had gone 7-2 in one-score games, one of the league’s best marks. The 2016 Raiders had followed a season in which they went 8-1 in one-score games by falling apart and going 6-10 the following season, which led to the firing of Jack Del Rio and the second Jon Gruden era for the organization.

This season, Las Vegas is 0-6 in one-score games, the worst record for any team. They’ve had a few injuries — and the new coaching staff hasn’t covered itself in playcalling glory — but if you’re looking for a real-life example of how random performance in one-score games can be, here’s the dictionary definition from this point forward. The Raiders either held a lead or had a chance to take the lead on offense in the fourth quarter in every one of those games. They’ve come up short each time.

Despite trading for Davante Adams, the red zone has been a house of horrors. Vegas has converted just 51.9% of its red zone trips, which ranks 22nd. It has been the league’s seventh-best offense by EPA per play in the red zone, but it’s 22nd by the same stat once it gets there. Even without pass-catchers Hunter Renfrow (ribs) or Darren Waller (left hamstring) for the foreseeable future, the Raiders should be better inside the 20 as the season goes along.

So, why aren’t they listed as an unlucky team? Because there is lots of other evidence they have benefited from good fortune. They’ve recovered nearly 69% of fumbles, the league’s top rate. Their offense ranks 22nd on early downs and fifth by EPA per play on third and fourth down. Opposing kickers have gone 11-for-17 on field goals against them, the worst conversion rate. As bad as it has gone for the Raiders, somehow, it could be even worse.

What it means: One more problem for the Raiders: Their schedule is about to get more difficult. They have gone 2-7 against what Football Outsiders believes to be the NFL’s easiest schedule. From here on out, they play the league’s 14th-toughest slate, including that season-ending run against the 49ers and Chiefs. The Raiders could come in at or above .500 over the remainder of the season, especially if the Chiefs use Week 18 to rest their starters in advance of the postseason.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers may be getting their two best receivers back in the same week – with a second straight Sunday night game looming.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Chargers ended Sunday’s loss to the 49ers without 15 key players, including Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. The team has had its top-two wideouts both available at the same time for only 45 snaps this season.

The players returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday.

Allen has played only two games this season after injuring a hamstring in the season opener that he twice has aggravated. He has only six receptions for 77 yards.

Allen, though, is uncertain about whether he will play in Sunday Night Football.

“I don’t know. I couldn’t tell you,” Allen said, via the team website. “The game speed is just so much different than just running. It’s just going to take some time. See how it feels today leading up into tomorrow.”

Williams has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He has 37 receptions for 495 yards and three touchdowns in seven games.

He, too, calls himself day to day and will wait to see how his ankle responds to practice this week.

“At the end of the day, you want to be healthy,” Williams said. “You want to be able to go out there and do what you do, so that’s the main thing. If I’m out there, be able to do what I can do so just play my game.”

Kicker Dustin Hopkins (right hamstring), outside linebacker Khalil Mack (rest) and punter JK Scott (illness) did not practice Wednesday.

BALTIMORE

Scott Kacsmar looked at the 6-3 Ravens schedule:

@ScottKacsmar

I keep seeing that the Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule.

In a year where teams are struggling to distance themselves, how easy can it be?

*Looks at pic*

Well, damn.

Carolina

at Jacksonville

Denver

at Pittsburgh

at Cleveland

Atlanta

Pittsburgh

at Cincinnati

13-4?

CLEVELAND

Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com looks at the impending arrival of QB DESHAUN WATSON:

Deshaun Watson is going to walk onto a regular-season practice field on Wednesday. What that means for the Cleveland Browns is vastly different than the unrealized hopes and dreams of September.

When the 2022 season started, the ceiling for the Browns (3-6) was to hand off a playoff contending team to Watson in Week 13. But something closer to the basement has unfolded for a variety of reasons.

The only thing that matters now is reality for the franchise. The brutal truth is Watson’s return from an 11-game suspension is a starting point. It’s an opportunity to put a team on the field around him and then accurately judge what pieces Watson can elevate, versus the positions the front office and coaching staff will need to revamp in the offseason. The fact remains that this no longer looks like a team that can be fixed by simply plugging Watson into a regular-season NFL game for the first time in 23 months. There are too many problems to be solved, ranging from coaching to talent to injuries.

Adding a patience problem on top of all that isn’t going to help anyone. Not Watson. Not head coach Kevin Stefanski. Not general manager Andrew Berry. And certainly not all of the Browns fans who are looking at the quarterback change as some kind of cure-all for this troubling and lethargic start.

Don’t be delusional about a Watson turnaround

Of course, that’s not what many Browns fans want to hear. There is a segment that wants to believe that splitting the next two games against the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and then forking over a 4-7 team to Watson in Week 13 sets up Cleveland for a transformational run down the stretch. That finishing flourish under Watson would have to assume the defense could suddenly stop opposing run games or that Watson shows no lag from his layoff.

Not to mention the simple fact that an offensive play-calling head coach like Stefanski and an elite quarterback like Watson still need quite a bit of live game work to learn their best harmony. If you think that’s not a real thing, look at the Denver Broncos catastrophe unfolding between Russell Wilson and play-calling head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Or consider that after three straight 13-3 seasons and back-to-back league MVP awards for Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers quarterback is still complaining about how head coach Matt LaFleur calls his offensive scheme.

Finding a groove with even the best quarterbacks can take an abundance of time and patience. Anyone in the Browns’ orbit who doesn’t understand that is setting themselves up for significant frustration. It’s also self-inflicted because everyone invested in this situation should understand that some kind of flipped-switch moonshot for an otherwise mediocre record is delusional. Everyone is being warned right now and right here. If you’re pulling your hair out after a few uneven performances from Watson and the Browns, part of that is on you. And if you’re apoplectic that Watson couldn’t rattle off six straight wins to close the season, that’s all on you.

Remember Jimmy Garoppolo’s start with the 49ers?

There is a decent frame of reference for expectations that can be drawn upon from recent history. If you want a comparable situation in terms of a quality midseason quarterback addition, look at the 2017 San Francisco 49ers. That team acquired Jimmy Garoppolo at the start of Week 9 of the regular season. He wouldn’t start his first game until Week 13. Amazingly, he closed out the schedule with five straight wins. But it was a double-edged sword that I talked about with head coach Kyle Shanahan nearly 18 months later. For the coaching staff, Garoppolo’s acquisition and debut with the team in 2017 wasn’t the franchise’s destination. It was just the road map and a starting point for an eventual Super Bowl appearance.

As Shanahan told me in the summer of 2019, “Jimmy’s 5-0 finish [to the 2017 season] was probably a little deceptive when it came to how much work we had to do then and still have to do now. He’s part of the foundation, but there is still a process in figuring out how to build on top of the foundation. We’re still figuring that out. We feel good about it, but there’s work to do.”

Six months after Shanahan said that, the 49ers and Garoppolo advanced to the Super Bowl. It took a significant amount of tweaks to get the roster right. Changes in the coaching staff. Changes to the roster. Even changes in the scheme and how Shanahan called a game with Garoppolo in the saddle.

This Browns’ roster is far ahead of that 2017 49ers roster, but I still think of that San Francisco team when I think about what is ahead for Watson and the Browns on the football field. Garoppolo and Shanahan had a five-game sprint to learn some things about each other and understand the fit with the surrounding roster. The Browns are going to have a similar six-game experience with Watson. Maybe they strike gold and win all six. Maybe the result is something far less. But the knowledge gained is the communication, interaction, film and final results that will undergo a full autopsy this coming offseason.

What can Watson provide on field in 2022?

Every molecule of data gained becomes something for Berry to finesse the roster. Every busted play or mistake becomes a coaching point or schematic tweak for Stefanski. And the entire process that unfolds becomes a lesson for fans who might have believed that one major quarterback addition changes everything. Can that happen? Sure. If it’s a transformational quarterback like Tom Brady or a last-missing-piece like Matthew Stafford. But as Wilson in Denver has shown us, it can also go horribly bad.

The key for Cleveland is to carefully guide the needle toward the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams experience. And the part of those experiences that worked best was having the high-caliber surrounding talent that made a difference.

When completely healthy, Cleveland has some of that talent. More additions can be made this offseason. Not to mention whatever moves are necessary to shore up the run defense and the languishing of the defensive scheme that seems to be an extension of coordinator Joe Woods. But what has to be understood is that Watson isn’t going to answer whether Jadeveon Clowney is a viable defensive piece beyond 2022. Watson isn’t going to solve the deficit at defensive tackle. He can’t make the offensive line healthier or add depth where it matters most.

What Watson can do is the only things fans should expect him to do for the final six games of 2022. Play clean and mistake-free. Protect the football from turnovers. Develop a rhythm with Stefanski. Stay healthy and seek out answers about which skill position players fit his game the best. If he can do all of those things, it will be precisely what Cleveland needs from this brief window that is ultimately setting up 2023.

The rest of the equation is on Stefanski and Berry, and whoever the coordinators will be next season to figure out how to shore up or pivot parts of the roster and scheme. As for the fans, there’s really only one brutal assignment that has to continue on until next season.

Finding a silver lining and cultivating patience. It’s a lot to ask of this fan base after all these years, but failing to reach for it now is guaranteeing more pain and frustration that they already know so well.

HOUSTON

After adding RB ENO BENJAMIN earlier in the week, the Texans have claimed WR AMARI RODGERS from Green Bay.  DJ Bien-Aime of ESPN.com:

Wide receiver and punt returner Amari Rodgers, who was released by the Green Bay Packers on Tuesday, has been claimed off the waiver wire by the Houston Texans, the team announced Wednesday.

Rodgers was released after the former 2021 third-round draft pick fumbled against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. It was his fifth fumble of the season — the most by any non-quarterback in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information research — with four of those coming on punt returns.

He has averaged 8.3 yards per punt return this season.

Defensive back Desmond King II is the Texans’ primary punt returner, averaging 6.9 yards per return on 13 attempts this season.

As a receiver, Rodgers has eight receptions for 95 yards over two seasons. The Texans’ receiving corps is led by Brandin Cooks, who has 391 yards receiving, and Nico Collins, who has 354 yards.

In the corresponding roster move, the Texans waived receiver Tyron Johnson.

TENNESSEE

The Titans will be short-handed (and short-footed) on the short week in Green Bay.  Turron Davenport of ESPN.com:

The Tennessee Titans have ruled out multiple starters for Thursday night’s game against the Green Bay Packers.

Starters ruled out Wednesday included center Ben Jones (concussion), safety Amani Hooker (shoulder), kicker Randy Bullock (right calf) and outside linebacker Bud Dupree (hip).

Backup safety Lonnie Johnson (hamstring) also was ruled out.

Jones suffered a concussion in Sunday’s 17-10 win over the Denver Broncos. Titans coach Mike Vrabel said on Monday that Jones was in the concussion protocol. The short week made it more difficult for Jones to get cleared. Reserve lineman Corey Levin will get the start at center in Jones’ place.

Hooker will miss his third consecutive game after injuring a shoulder in Week 8 against the Houston Texans. The Titans will turn to veteran safety Andrew Adams to start in Hooker’s place.

Dupree is dealing with a hip injury that occurred in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills. The veteran outside linebacker has been in and out of the lineup but has missed a total of four games this season.

Bullock tweaked his right calf during pregame warm-ups Sunday and was unavailable for kickoffs but was good on a 35-yard field goal attempt. Punter Ryan Stonehouse handled kickoffs for the Titans on Sunday.

Tennessee signed veteran kicker Josh Lambo to handle kicking duties on Thursday. In a corresponding move, the Titans released wide receiver Chris Conley to open up a roster spot for Lambo.

BUFFALO

Hopefully the Browns can bus up to Buffalo this week. Zach Jackson of The Athletic:

Four days before the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills are scheduled to play their Week 11 game in Orchard Park, N.Y., the only thing we know for sure is that the snow has already started. It’s not expected to stop for days, with AccuWeather calling for a “potentially historic” lake-effect event and the National Weather Service Buffalo tweeting that it will eventually be measured in “feet, not inches.”

Maybe a remake of the 2007 Browns-Bills Snow Bowl is directly ahead. Maybe the storm will die or divert by the early weekend, leaving just wind and cold for the game itself. Or maybe it really will be a historic blizzard, and in the event that road closures or other hazardous conditions in or around Highmark Stadium affect the ability for the teams, other personnel or the Browns’ equipment truck to safely get there, the NFL could move the game to another site.

The last time the Bills had a game moved to due to a multi-day blizzard was in 2014 — exactly eight years ago this week — when Buffalo and surrounding areas were shut down for multiple days and a Bills game against the New York Jets was moved to Detroit’s Ford Field. That remains one of several reported-but-still-undecided options this week as league officials track the storm. Wednesday, an NFL spokesperson said that the league is monitoring the situation and will remain in contact with both the Browns and the Bills.

The National Weather Service Buffalo says “intense bands of lake-effect snow” will continue to hit various parts of the region over the next three days with snow accumulations in some spots totaling 3-6 feet. Colden, another Erie County town adjacent to Orchard Park, had already measured 8.2 inches of snow by 10:30 p.m. Wednesday. The National Weather Service said “slowly changing orientations” will make the total impact tougher to predict as shifts in the lake-effect bands will hit different areas at different times.

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The Bills are beset with illness this week.  Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:

The Buffalo Bills are adjusting their practice schedule because of a number of illnesses on the team.

Coach Sean McDermott said five players would be absent from Wednesday’s practice because of illness, including defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle, linebacker Matt Milano, defensive back Cam Lewis and fullback Reggie Gilliam.

With not enough healthy players available, McDermott said the Bills will do less 11-on-11 work ahead of Sunday’s home game against the Cleveland Browns.

“We’re going to adjust practice because we don’t have enough numbers to practice,” McDermott said. “So we’re going to adjust a little bit, we’ll go out there and do some individual and then have to just service offense, service defense, so some of this is affected by that.”

Quarterback Josh Allen also will be limited in practice Wednesday with the right elbow injury that affected him last week. During the portion of practice open to the media, Allen was wearing a sleeve on his right arm and stood to the side for some drills.

Allen did not throw in some of the drills that backup quarterback Case Keenum and practice squad quarterback Matt Barkley were throwing in.

“It’s day by day,” McDermott said about Allen’s injury. “And I’m saying that not because anything’s changed, but we reassess and see where we’re at after today and what tomorrow looks like and how he is and maybe even what practice looks like.”

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Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has the Bills on his list of “unlucky” teams:

Unlucky: Buffalo Bills (6-3)

What has gone wrong: Red zone offense, third-down defense

You saw the end of the game against the Vikings, didn’t you? The Bills were two successful center-quarterback snaps away from jumping to 7-2, but Josh Allen and Mitch Morse failed to combine on the first snap, with Minnesota falling on it for a stunning touchdown. The Bills then forced overtime and were in the position to tie or win the game, only for Allen to throw an interception to Patrick Peterson.

I covered Allen’s issues protecting the football in the red zone on Monday, but even in their victories, the Bills haven’t been very good inside the 20 this season. The league’s second-best offense outside of the red zone by EPA per play has also been its fifth-worst offense inside the red zone. The Bills are 27th in the league in points per red zone possession, down from fifth a year ago.

I’m a little concerned about the Buffalo run game, but Allen’s ability as a runner and his track record as a passer inside the 20 before the last few weeks makes me think he should be able to turn things around and score more often. As long as he’s in the lineup, I would be surprised if the Bills weren’t a league-average red zone offense over the rest of the season.

Likewise, there’s an argument for what’s hurt the Bills on the defensive side of the ball. Von Miller & Co. have been the league’s best defense by EPA per play on first and second down, but they’ve fallen to 18th on third and fourth down. The Buffalo pass rush has been able to impose their will at times, but injuries have forced it to play rookies, backups and special-teamers in the secondary for critical games. Coordinator Leslie Frazier was without both starting safeties and each of his outside cornerbacks during Sunday’s loss.

Here, I’m a little more concerned about Buffalo’s chances to turn things around. Micah Hyde (neck) is out for the season, and while Tre’Davious White (left knee) was activated from injured reserve two weeks ago, the team hasn’t inserted him into the lineup. When asked about White’s status this week, coach Sean McDermott said that his star cornerback is “…just not in a position where he’s ready,” which doesn’t seem to augur much optimism for White’s chances of playing at a high level anytime soon.

What it means: Play-by-play metrics still think the Bills are the most dominant team in the league, as DVOA comfortably ranks Buffalo as the best team in football. ESPN’s FPI has the Bills second behind the Chiefs. Despite now ranking third in the AFC East standings, FPI is optimistic about their chances of turning things around, projecting them to have a 59.3% chance of winning the division and a 22.3% chance of claiming the first-round bye in the AFC.

I would be a little more nervous. Allen’s UCL injury could sap this effectiveness and lead to more turnovers. The injury issues in the secondary are real, and I’m concerned about whether White will be his old self upon returning. The Bills hold tiebreakers over the Chiefs and Titans, but they lost head-to-head matchups against the Dolphins and Jets. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went 7-1 over the final eight weeks of the season and won the East, but they have more uncertainty than most teams of this caliber after 10 weeks.

MIAMI

Have the 7-3 Dolphins been “lucky” to get there?  Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com makes that case:

Lucky: Miami Dolphins (7-3)

What has gone right: One-score games, hidden special teams

Dolphins fans are rightfully over the moon. Tua Tagovailoa has been the league’s best quarterback on a snap-by-snap basis this season. Mike McDaniel looks to be the right head-coaching hire after years of disappointing decisions. The defense has struggled, but Miami has won every game Tagovailoa has completed so far in 2022. If anything, given that the Dolphins lost the three games Tagovailoa mostly or entirely missed because of a concussion, Fins supporters might feel like they’ve been unlucky.

While the Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team and contender in the AFC East, I would argue they’ve had fortuitous timing for stretches. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer, including comeback victories in consecutive weeks over the Ravens and Bills. In the wins over the Bills and Steelers, they had to come up with a red zone stop to win. The Lions and Bears had fourth-quarter drives to try to take the lead, only to come up short.

Josh Boyer’s defense deserves credit for coming up with those stops, but it’s curious how it has struggled so often for long stretches of games and then sealed up shop at exactly the right time. On the whole, the Dolphins rank 26th in defensive EPA per play allowed. When they’re leading by seven points or fewer in the fourth quarter, though, they have the league’s eighth-best defense.

What’s weird about those red zone stops is that Miami otherwise has been abysmal inside its own 20-yard line. It has allowed teams to convert for touchdowns on 68.8% of their red zone possessions, the fourth-worst mark in the league. The Dolphins only have three “stuffs” for zero points in 32 red zone trips this season: a stop at the 1-yard line against the Ravens, from the 2-yard line against the Bills and an interception of Kenny Pickett in the Steelers win. They needed all three stops to win those games.

Miami also has benefited from sloppy play on special teams. While it has fielded the league’s worst special teams by DVOA through 10 weeks, it has gotten help from a source I wouldn’t typically consider: subpar opposing punting. While opposing kickers have been above-average on field goals and extra points, punters facing the Dolphins are only averaging 41.9 yards per punt. That’s nearly two yards per punt below the second-worst mark, and it’s more than five yards below the league average.

What it means: The Dolphins probably can’t count on pulling out quite as many close games over the rest of the season. Four of their next six games after the bye are on the road, including a three-game road trip against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills.

With that being said, the defense is likely to improve in the red zone and produce more as a pass rush after adding Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline. The Dolphins should be a more balanced team from here on out, which could be scary given how effective their offense has been with Tagovailoa on the field.