DETROIT

The Lions haven’t hosted a home playoff game since 1993.  And Mike Florio says Detroit fans may have to wait an extra week for that streak to break.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Lions have their bye this weekend. As they get ready for their final nine games of the season, they have a very real possibility laid out before them.

The team that hasn’t won its division since 1993 could end up being the No. 1 seed in the entire conference, and the bye that goes along with it.

Look at the schedule. At the Chargers, the Bears, the Packers, at the Saints, at the Brears, the Broncos, at the Vikings, at the Cowboys, and the Vikings.

The game at Dallas is the only one left that looks like a loss. The rest of them seem to be winners.

That’s 14-3. Depending on what the Eagles do (they face the Cowboys twice, the 49ers, the Chiefs, the Bills, and the Seahawks), the Lions could indeed end up taking the top spot in the NFC.

That would be huge. Force the road to Sin City through the Motor City. Keep quarterback Jared Goff from having to play outdoors. Potentially advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

It’s all in front of them, one winnable game at a time, with the exception of Week 17.

How soon could the Lions actually win the division?  Probably not by Thanksgiving, but perhaps not much later.

GREEN BAY

Halfway through the season, QB JORDAN LOVE has yet to secure a long term commitment from Packers brass.  Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:

Seven games into Aaron Rodgers’ first season as the Green Bay Packers starting quarterback back in 2008, they gave him a contract extension. At the same point in Jordan Love’s first season as QB1, the Packers still need more time to evaluate whether he’s the long-term future of the franchise.

Love still has another year left on his deal, so it’s not paramount from a contractual situation. But they would rather it not take more than this season to know whether he’s the answer.

“I hope not,” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Wednesday during his annual midseason news conference. “I think we’ve got 10 games left. These are going to be very important 10 games.”

The Packers started 2-1 under Love, and he had seven touchdowns and just one interception to that point. Since then, the Packers have lost four straight and Love has thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions.

“I think he’s done a lot of really good things,” Gutekunst said. “Really like the way he’s responded to the adversity, how he’s led the team. Again, we’ve got to be better as a unit, and I expect that to happen over the next 10 games. And I think that we’re going through some things that we knew we would go through. We haven’t had the results that we want, but I do like the way guys are responding to things.”

The offense’s struggles in the first half have crippled the team. Opponents have outscored Green Bay 73-9 combined in the first halves of the past five games. Its minus-59 first-half point differential is tied for the second worst in the NFL. The Packers are plus-42 in the second half, which is second best in the league.

Gutekunst described Love’s play as “a little up and down.”

“Like our entire offense, right?” he said. “I think it’s been a work in progress for the entire offense. There’s been glimpses, particularly in the second halves, of really good football. But we have not started very well. So, I think that group, that unit as a whole has a lot of work to do. But at the same time, they’re kind of committed to the process, believe in that group of guys and expect better results coming.”

Gutekunst surrounded Love with the youngest roster in the NFL and did not do anything to change that before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Nowhere is that more evident than at the pass-catching positions, where, between receivers and tight ends, the Packers have nine players in their first or second season in the NFL. Fourth-year tight end Josiah Deguara is the only receiver or tight end with more than two years of experience.

Love ranks last in completion rate (57.7%) among the 32 qualifying quarterbacks, just behind the Jets’ Zach Wilson (58.3%). The Packers rank 25th in total yards per game and 21st in passing yards per game.

“When the group as a whole is not functioning the way it should function, then it’s hard to evaluate anybody,” Gutekunst said. “At the same time, it’s on us to get that right so we can move forward and evaluate the guys we have in that room. But yeah, when we’re not clicking, it’s tough to evaluate anything.”

Gutekunst’s comments came two days after coach Matt LaFleur said it’s been difficult to evaluate Love to this point.

“I think in order to do that, I think everybody’s got to play better around him, quite frankly,” LaFleur said Monday. “Are there some things he can do better? Absolutely. I think he’d be the first to tell you. Are there some things we can do as a staff to help our guys? Absolutely. And then, when there are plays there to be made, we’ve got to make the plays.”

Although Love spent three seasons as Rodgers’ backup, Gutekunst said he has evaluated him as a first-year player.

Gutekunst in the offseason signed Love to a contract extension that is worth up to $22.5 million through the 2024 season. It was in place of exercising the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Rodgers also took over in his fourth year, but at that time there was not a fifth-year option in contracts of first-round picks, so Rodgers entered his first season as the starter in the final year of his original contract.

The Packers appear headed for a top-10 draft pick this offseason unless they can turn things around beginning with Sunday’s game against the Rams. Tuesday’s trade of Rasul Douglas to the Bills along with a fifth-round pick got them a 2024 third-round pick in return. It means the Packers currently own five picks in the first three rounds, which gives them plenty of flexibility if they need to pick another quarterback.

“I really do believe in the group in that building and the coaching staff, and I think big things are ahead,” Gutekunst said. “It’s just going, we’ve got to get through these things. We’ve got to learn from ’em. We’ve got to stay grounded through the process, and if we do that, I think the results will come.”

WASHINGTON

John Keim of ESPN.com on what the Commanders were thinking when they sent both rushers MONTEZ SWEAT and CHASE YOUNG packing.

The Washington Commanders expected more from their defensive line and, by proxy, their ability to contend for the playoffs, in 2023.

With a losing record (3-5), and a front that has failed to live up to expectations, the Commanders took a sharp turn at Tuesday’s trade deadline, offloading two former first-round picks: defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

At one point, the Commanders wanted to build around a line that also included fellow first-rounders Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen at tackle. But after lackluster results, and with numerous holes elsewhere on the roster, they opted to go another direction — adding future assets while continuing to believe, according to team sources, they can compete this season.

Washington received a high second-round pick from the Chicago Bears for Sweat — the 26th overall pick in 2019 — and a third-round choice for Young — the second overall pick in 2020 — from the San Francisco 49ers.

Here’s what the deals mean.

What does this mean for the direction of the franchise?

This means it has future assets. Washington now has three draft picks among the top 50 in 2024 and five in the top 100. The Commanders also have glaring needs along the defensive line and could use help in their back seven on defense, among other spots. They also have approximately $90 million in salary cap space. They can attack free agency and the draft.

Washington still wants to win this season, despite what trading Chase and Sweat might look like. The Commanders did not want to unload all of their pending free agents because they want to compete in 2023. That’s one reason, a team source said, they did not trade backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett; they want to be covered in case something happens to starter Sam Howell. Washington coach Ron Rivera has made it clear how much he values Brissett.

The extra draft capital gives them the ability to collect more young talent — or be aggressive if they want to trade up. Owner Josh Harris, who also owns the Philadelphia 76ers, has watched the Philadelphia Eagles operate in this manner.

Why did Commanders trade both of their defensive ends?

Both would be free agents this offseason, and, based on these moves, the team no longer wanted to invest as heavily in one position group. Now, one source said, the Commanders can build a more balanced roster through spending and draft picks. Washington already had paid two other first-round picks along the front in Payne and Allen. The group was supposed to provide the foundation for defensive success. But Rivera was honest when asked whether they had played to the level he anticipated this season.

“Not consistently enough,” he said. “You see it, but you’ve got to see it all the time, and that’s really the mark of when it really comes together, is that it’s consistent.”

Throughout the offseason, team sources said they wanted to extend Sweat. And, if Young produced, they could always use the franchise tag on him and keep both players. After all, if Howell played well, it gave them a young quarterback on a rookie contract. Plus, Washington has all that cap space for 2024. The combination added up to keeping both — if the Commanders wanted.

But, while Sweat and Young had combined for 11.5 sacks this season, the team had lost five of its past six games. Internally, multiple sources said, it became clear the Commanders needed more help elsewhere — and it would be difficult to keep Sweat or Young. Sweat would have been the preferred choice long term, one source said, but the potential cost of his deal — Spotrac listed his market value around $25 million a year — combined with the Bears’ offer made trading him the best option. Had it only been a third-round pick, a source said, it’s unlikely the team would have traded Sweat.

There was also concern, multiple sources said, about Young’s long-term durability after he suffered not only a torn ACL but also a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee in 2021. Indeed, sources said, medical concerns prevented some teams who had expressed interest from making an offer.

Another factor hinged on potential compensatory picks. Because Washington has a lot of cap space, it can be active in free agency. If the Commanders sign an expensive player, it would negate what they might have lost in Sweat or Young — and they would not have received a compensatory pick.

There were also concerns about the lack of on-field chemistry among the starting defensive line, multiple sources said. According to sources, when Rivera said three weeks ago that the mantra of “Do Your Job” was directed as much at the defensive line as any group, Young was a particular target of that message; one source said the team viewed trading him as “addition by subtraction.” A source said a lack of gap discipline impacted not only the pass rush but defending the run.

The coaching staff also knew that, two years ago, when Washington played without Sweat and/or Young for six games, it went 4-2 and improved in every key statistical category — going from allowing 29.9 points per game to 17.5 and from 400 yards allowed to 284. But Sweat and Young are also having more productive seasons than in 2021.

Finally, for Washington to improve this season it’ll take a lot more help from the back seven. The Commanders rank 31st in points and 29th in yards because that group has a lot of holes. If they don’t stop allowing big plays — they lead the NFL in 22 pass plays allowed of 25 or more yards — then not enough will change to turn their season around.

What does this mean for Ron Rivera and his staff?

Because it’s the fourth year under Rivera — and they have a new owner in Harris — the staff was already under the impression it needs to produce this season to stick around, as one coach said recently. At 3-5, and with no winning season yet, they have not produced.

But this could also help them. If Washington can right its season, Rivera & Co. can make a stronger case for being retained after making moves the owner approved and then showing they could still win. And they’d also have left the franchise in a good spot for the future. Rivera has said this season also is about seeing whether Howell can be the long-term answer at quarterback.

Before the season, Rivera told ESPN he didn’t worry about his future.

“If we go 8-8-1 this year and he fires me and next year they win the division and 40 of the 53 players we drafted and it’s the same quarterback, I’m vindicated,” Rivera said. “Send me my Super Bowl ring. That’s the way I look at it. I want us to be right and to see this community have that excitement again.”

What involvement did new owner Josh Harris have in the decision?

Harris, of course, was involved in the process — as any owner would be. But his style also represents change for Washington, which was used to a more frenetic decision-making process under previous owner Daniel Snyder, multiple sources said.

In this situation, Harris tasked the front office with collecting information — in the form of offers. General manager Martin Mayhew and assistant general manager Marty Hurney solicited offers on multiple players, then involved Rivera. The group then took those offers to Harris, who quizzed them about the potential deals. He wanted to understand the process, why they might want to keep a particular player, or why, say, a third-round pick for Young represented good value. Then they’d make a collective decision. Sometimes they rejected a deal — like a sixth-round offer by one team for quarterback Brissett, according to sources.

It’s the same way he has operated with the other pro sports teams he owns, including the 76ers and the New Jersey Devils.

How will the Commanders fill the holes at defensive end?

Two years ago, James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill filled in when Sweat and Young were injured. That will be the case again this season. Both Smith-Williams and Toohill will be free agents after the season.

Smith-Williams has played 183 snaps, and Toohill has played 102. Toohill has a career-best four sacks; Smith-Williams, more of a run-stopper, has one. They also have veteran Efe Obada and two rookie ends in KJ Henry, a fifth-round pick, and Andre Jones Jr., a seventh-rounder who flashed during the preseason.

But Washington’s defense will still funnel through its tackles, Payne and Allen. The Commanders bolstered the interior with backups John Ridgeway, whom they claimed off waivers after the Dallas Cowboys cut him last season, and Phidarian Mathis, a second-round pick in 2022.

CAROLINA

The Athletic has something called the QRI – the Quarterback Reliability Index.  It allegedly measures how good QB is in the

They are all excited that QB BRYCE YOUNG has soared to 27^th this week.  Joseph Person:

Bryce Young ranks 27th in this week’s QRI — what makes that impressive?

Ranking 27th in QRI and 29th in EPA per dropback might not jump off the page for Bryce Young and Carolina Panther fans, but considering where he was just a few weeks ago, the improvement shouldn’t go unnoticed. Young had two awful games to start his career, but progress has started to show since he returned from the ankle injury that kept him out in Week 3 against the Seahawks.

Young posted dropback success rates of 30.0% and 37.8%, respectively, in his first two games, numbers that would rank last and third to last among season-long rates for qualified quarterbacks in 2023. In his four games since, Young has posted a league-average success rate or better three times including 45.9% in Sunday’s win over the Texans, best among rookies and 15th across the NFL in Week 8. The next step in Young’s progression is sack avoidance. Since Week 3, he ranks 17th in EPA per pass attempt but 26th in EPA per dropback. If Young can get the ball out and limit the sacks, he could challenge C.J. Stroud as the NFL’s most impressive rookie quarterback this season. — Austin Mock, NFL staff writer

What stood out about Young’s performance in Sunday’s win over the Texans?

Before the final drive — Panthers receiver Adam Thielen couldn’t remember if it was on the sideline or in the huddle — Thielen said Young told his teammates: “Hey, guys, this is what we do. We can do this. Let’s go put it on tape.” It was how Young said it more than what he said that made an impression on Thielen.

“You can say all you want, but when you feel the energy and the confidence, it gives you confidence that he’s gonna dish it,” Thielen said. “He’s gonna find us. Just go do your job and see what happens.”

What happened was the Panthers’ first win since Week 18 last season and the first locker room party since Young and head coach Frank Reich arrived. And it ended with a game ball in Young’s locker. — Joseph Person, Panthers beat writer

Here is more on QRI:

The QRI is a model that measures quarterback performance in high-leverage situations as a way to quantify the level to which a team relies on that player’s ability when it matters most. These high-level situations include third- and fourth-down plays and late-game sequences all while filtering out plays in which the in-game win probability is greater than 80% for either team. In other words, when the game is on the line, this metric attempts to evaluate how well a quarterback has gotten the job done.

Passing- and rushing-related metrics within the model include versions of:

Expected points added (EPA)

Success rate (play with a positive EPA is considered a successful play)

Win probability added (WPA)

Using the metrics, the model calculates a rating similar to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball. The rating represents how many wins better the given QB has been than a replacement-level QB in the aforementioned high-leverage situations and then prorated over the course of a 17-game season.

For a more thorough evaluation, the index includes data from all games since the start of the 2022 season (for applicable players) with recent games weighted more heavily. Until more games are played, rookies and newer starters have smaller sample sizes and will be more susceptible to bigger swings. We’re solely including this season’s primary starting quarterbacks for a cleaner ranking.

On an otherwise somewhat predictable list, one name jumps out on the current list:

1     Patrick Mahomes                    6.2

2     Jalen Hurts                              6.1

3     Josh Allen                                5.6

4     Joe Burrow                              4.9

5     Jared Goff                               4.7

6     Jimmy Garoppolo                    4.6

7     Justin Herbert                          4.7

8     Trevor Lawrence                      4.5

9      Lamar Jackson                       4.4

10    Brock Purdy                            4.4

And yes, Garoppolo is listed 6^th at 4.6 ahead of Justin Herbert at 4.7.  No idea why – or what he is doing there at all.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Coach Sean McVay says that whatever is going on with QB MATTHEW STAFFORD and his thumb will not require a trip to IR.

The Rams’ week started with uncertainty over quarterback Matthew Stafford’s right thumb, but on Wednesday afternoon, head coach Sean McVay reiterated that Stafford is “day to day” and suggested the team could give him all the way up until game time on Sunday to determine whether he’ll play against the Green Bay Packers.

Stafford, who suffered a ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) sprain in his right thumb last Sunday in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys, will not practice on Wednesday.

The Rams are continuing to monitor swelling, and whether Stafford will be able to properly grip a football. McVay has not formally ruled Stafford out for this Sunday’s game.

“We’ll continue to monitor it, and he’ll be day to day,” said McVay. “Obviously he won’t participate today. We’ll have contingency plans for both situations that could potentially arise.”

Monday, as the Rams waited on more tests, a league source with direct knowledge of the injury said the team was bracing for a wide range of scenarios as the staff gathered more information, and had not yet ruled out injured reserve. Monday afternoon, McVay confirmed the sprain.

By Wednesday afternoon, McVay was able to say publicly that Stafford would not be designated to injured reserve and remains “day to day.”

McVay suggested that the injury is not as bad as initially feared on Sunday night in Dallas, into Monday morning.

“There’s so much swelling when you look at it, but we were encouraged that it was a sprain,” McVay said Monday afternoon. “I think there were some potential concerns that it could be worse and might’ve even been some scar tissue from the previous thing where you’re kind of breaking it up from that previous surgery that he had. So hopefully it was just a good scare.”

Brett Rypien is the Rams’ current backup quarterback. Wednesday, they also added training camp arm Dresser Winn to the practice squad.

McVay was asked, hypothetically, even if Stafford didn’t practice through Friday, would that rule him out Sunday?

“No, it’s one of those deals that you give him up until right before the game,” said McVay. “You use all the time necessary for a player like him.”

McVay noted Monday that aside from swelling and grip, weather conditions in Green Bay and the Rams’ upcoming bye week are also factors in consideration as to whether Stafford plays.

LAS VEGAS

Longtime Raiders scribe Vic Tafur of The Athletic clues us in on what went wrong with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas.

There are a lot of reasons Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis fired head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler on Tuesday night. The embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears followed by an ugly showing against the Detroit Lions on national television Monday, the complete mishandling of every single quarterback move the last two years, bad free-agent signings, growing player unrest …

But the rope that brought the curtain down on McDaniels and Ziegler sooner than either ever imagined was their misplaced and empty confidence. While each surely played some kind of role in the New England Patriots’ six Super Bowl wins over the years, how much became more and more of a question to Davis with every misstep they made the last two years.

All the while, they assured everyone they knew what they were doing and their timeline shouldn’t be rushed. McDaniels and Ziegler had six-year contracts and the national media on their side, and what did Davis know about winning anyway?

Well … he knows he wants to win, and after 12 years of mostly losing, he was desperate to try a new approach — “The Patriot Way” — after the Jack Del Rio and Jon Gruden eras. Davis gritted his teeth through last year’s 6-11 inaugural season and even backed Ziegler this offseason when the GM said this season would be judged on player development and not wins.

(That he would say this and then pose in front of a picture of Al Davis on draft night definitely hit funny. Mark Davis’ dad only cared about winning.)

Davis and the team flew back from Detroit late Monday night and arrived in Las Vegas at 2 a.m. PT. Most people figured he would give the new regime two more games at least — winnable home games against the New York Giants and New York Jets — before blowing everything up. But Davis faced the facts during that flight and on Tuesday:

The 3-5 Raiders are not winning. And he had no real reason to believe they could beat the Giants or Jets.

And they’re not developing young players. The rookie draft class — with five draft picks in the top 104 — has 11 catches, a sack and 30 tackles through eight games.

An offense with Davante Adams, the best receiver in football, and Josh Jacobs, last year’s NFL rushing leader, is putting up 16 points a game.

When McDaniels talked to reporters Tuesday afternoon at his weekly news conference, it once again became clear that he had no idea why his offense couldn’t score points or how to fix the problem. An offense that was hard for his players to pick up was easy for defenses to stop.

Davis had called McDaniels “a chess player” when he hired him 21 months ago because he was always a step ahead of other teams when he was winning Super Bowls as an offensive coordinator with the Patriots.

But McDaniels was not a step ahead, and neither was Ziegler.

Ziegler gave contract extensions to Derek Carr, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow last year, and then the Raiders cut Carr, traded Waller and stopped playing Renfrow. On Tuesday, the Raiders were unable to move Renfrow at the trade deadline because, league sources say, teams were unwilling to pay all the guaranteed money in Renfrow’s extension.

Davis had no comment on the firings Tuesday night other than his official statement to part ways with McDaniels and Ziegler “after much thought about what the Raiders need to move forward.”

But Davis will tell you he had no problem moving on from Carr after his nine seasons as the face of the franchise. Davis was all for it. Davis’ problem was the contract extension Ziegler gave Carr that not only led to an awkward two-week benching of Carr at the end of last season, but worse, had a no-trade clause that wound up letting the quarterback walk with no compensation to the Raiders.

Worse than losing a top-15 quarterback for nothing is signing a quarterback for more than $33 million guaranteed who throws nine interceptions in six games. Tom Brady was Plan A, but he retired and Jimmy Garoppolo was McDaniels’ and Ziegler’s guy from New England. He wouldn’t have the same problems getting comfortable with the offensive scheme that Carr did, Davis was told.

How much did Davis want to believe in McDaniels and Ziegler? Just look at the Garoppolo mess. The quarterback failed a physical when he came in to sign his contract and would need foot surgery.

Quick history lesson: Nine years ago, the Raiders were set to sign free agent guard Rodger Saffold to a huge deal, but he failed a physical even though he insisted his shoulder was fine (and would play that season). Davis sent Saffold’s family and everyone else home from the news conference and called the whole thing off.

But this time, Davis went along with restructuring Garoppolo’s deal pending a healthy recovery by the end of training camp. Garoppolo said after the game Monday night that he is healthy and McDaniels echoed that Tuesday, but one has to wonder what effect foot surgery and a back injury in Week 6 had on a quarterback who does not look comfortable in the pocket or throwing deep.

There was a much cheaper alternative at quarterback in what Davis could have accepted as a rebuilding year. Jarrett Stidham, another former Patriot, started two games for the Raiders when Carr was benched last season and had mixed success. Ziegler and I haven’t talked for months (I was deemed too negative), but back when we did chat, re-signing Stidham and drafting a quarterback early was a more attractive option than signing Garoppolo. But the Denver Broncos outbid the Raiders for Stidham (two years for $10 million, with $5 million guaranteed) and McDaniels and Ziegler really only liked one of the top five college quarterbacks, and Bryce Young was picked first by the Carolina Panthers.

The Raiders breathed a sigh of relief when Garoppolo was cleared medically in training camp — only to have the Chandler Jones saga go viral. The defensive end was mad at McDaniels and Ziegler and started posting some outrageous and inflammatory things on social media. He was placed on leave and was later released after the first of two arrests on two counts of violating a temporary protection order for domestic violence.

While no one could have seen that coming, Jones is also a former Patriot and leader who McDaniels and Ziegler vouched for. The $32 million guaranteed for a 32-year-old pass rusher was highly questionable even before Jones struggled at the start of last season. To make things worse financially, the Raiders restructured his deal in April to clear up cap space, and now his dead salary-cap hit is $25.6 million over the next two years while the Raiders already paid him most of the $32 million in cash.

The Renfrow, Carr, Garoppolo and Jones events overshadow what happened to Waller, but it all adds up for Davis. The Raiders traded Waller to the Giants in March for a late third-round pick — eight months after they gave him a three-year, $51 million contract extension.

Waller missed seven games last season due to a hamstring injury and is dealing with another hamstring injury now. But, like Carr and Pro Bowl linebacker Denzel Perryman and many others, he never really connected with the new regime. Many players tired of the epic-length meetings and the constant criticism, as well as the new regime’s monitoring of social media accounts and daily warnings to not trust the media. (Ironically, the two biggest leaks in the building were McDaniels and Ziegler.)

An NFL Players Association survey released in March — where 1,300 out of the NFL’s 2,200 players filled out a confidential report card — had McDaniels and his staff as the lowest-graded in the league.

“Player respondents felt that head coach Josh McDaniels is less likely to listen to his players and keeps them for longer hours than other head coaches around the league,” the report said.

Waller’s trade came 10 days after his wedding to Las Vegas Aces guard Kelsey Plum. The timing was more than interesting because McDaniels accidentally leaked the news of the wedding to reporters at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Waller was really upset with McDaniels when the Las Vegas Review-Journal posted a story announcing that the wedding was scheduled later in the week.

Plum tweeted that McDaniels was mad he wasn’t invited to the wedding, but she followed up later saying that she was joking. But he hadn’t been invited and it was a weird deal in the locker room and in the building — not to mention with teammate Maxx Crosby getting married the same weekend — and many players are convinced that Waller’s anger and the fallout were why he was traded.

(Davis owns the WNBA-champion Aces, and he was celebrating their second straight title with Plum and Waller 10 days ago.)

Davis was envisioning a Super Bowl parade when he hired McDaniels and Ziegler 21 months ago. The Raiders were coming off their second playoff appearance in 20 years, but Davis didn’t like the play calling in the playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and replaced interim coach Rich Bisaccia and general manager Mike Mayock after a 10-7 season.

McDaniels and Ziegler would take the Raiders “the next step,” Davis said. But the Raiders went 9-16 with the new regime — after making a seemingly all-in move by trading a first- and second-round pick to the Green Bay Packers for Adams.

There were several embarrassing losses, from losing to off-the-street Indianapolis Colts coach Jeff Saturday to being shut out by the New Orleans Saints and blowing big leads to the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams last season to Adams slamming his helmet on the turf in the closing minutes on Monday night.

Davis gave McDaniels and Ziegler a vote of confidence last season, but in March he had a cryptic quote aimed at taking Ziegler’s ego down a notch.

“Dave is young and has never been in this position before,” Davis said. “It takes time to learn all the tricks of the trade. I think the people he confides in might not be giving him the full picture because it’s so damn competitive. But he’s going to be doing great.”

Worse than the embarrassing losses by McDaniels and Davis’ money being set on fire by Ziegler was that there was no believable plan for success going forward. McDaniels looked more and more flustered by the day and said after the Bears loss that “football is a mysterious game sometimes.”

Not really. This marks the second time that McDaniels has been fired in Year 2 as a head coach — Broncos fans refer to him as “Hurricane Josh” after he went 11-17 in Denver from 2009 to ’10. And there will be a similar effect with the Raiders, as McDaniels and Ziegler overturned the front office and scouting staff and added a lot of former Patriots players to a reshaped roster.

Champ Kelly is the interim GM and Antonio Pierce becomes the eighth head coach, regular or interim, since Davis took over for his late father in 2011. He really tried to have patience this time, but with each passing day, it became more and more clear to him that McDaniels and Ziegler had no idea what they were doing.

And worse, they were in no rush to do it.

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com has seven candidates to succeed McDaniels.

The Josh McDaniels era is over in Las Vegas after just one and a half seasons, with the Raiders dismissing the head coach alongside general manager Dave Ziegler early Wednesday. It’s just the latest tumultuous turn for a franchise that hasn’t employed a coach for more than four consecutive seasons since Art Shell (1989-1994) almost three decades ago.

What’s next atop their staff? A lot can change between now and the end of the 2023 season, especially if the Raiders find new life under interim Antonio Pierce, the former star Giants linebacker. But here are some other names who figure to be on Las Vegas’ radar as owner Mark Davis embarks on yet another search for a new head coach:

7. Brian Flores (Vikings DC)

Davis might be hesitant to go right back to the Bill Belichick tree after McDaniels’ quick flameout, but Flores has at least proven he can win as a head man, going 19-14 in his final two seasons as the Dolphins’ head coach from 2020-2021. He’s been even better running a makeshift Minnesota “D,” keeping the Vikings afloat despite key offensive injuries.

6. Dan Quinn (Cowboys DC)

Quinn elected to return to Dallas after interviewing for several top jobs last offseason, and there’s a real chance he’ll stay put in hopes of one day becoming Jerry Jones’ crown jewel. The appeal from the Raiders’ end, besides the defensive resume, might be that he’s also been there, done that as a head coach, guiding two playoff runs and a Super Bowl appearance with the Falcons.

5. Ejiro Evero (Panthers DC)

There might not be a more promising, more well-rounded candidate to hit the cycle in 2024. Just 42, Evero has worked under Wade Phillips, Raheem Morris and Vic Fangio across stints with the 49ers, Broncos and Super Bowl-champion Rams. He’s been just as sturdy under Frank Reich with the young Panthers this year, drawing another dose of rave reviews.

4. Brian Callahan (Bengals OC)

Callahan was Zac Taylor’s handpicked OC upon the latter’s arrival in Cincinnati in 2019, and he’s helped shepherd Joe Burrow’s growth into one of the game’s top QBs. Before that, the ex-Broncos assistant was part of Jon Gruden’s original staff with the 2018 Raiders, serving as QBs coach. In Vegas, he’d conceivably get the chance to select his own QB for a rebuild.

3. Ben Johnson (Lions OC)

Johnson turned down head coaching interest to return under Dan Campbell last offseason, but there may never be a better time for him to leap upward, guiding two straight top-five offenses with Jared Goff and Co. He’s a young (37), ascending, adaptable offensive mind. The only real holdup is that half a dozen other clubs might be knocking on his door.

2. Frank Smith (Dolphins OC)

If it’s groundbreaking offense Mark Davis wants, he could return to the AFC East well, except this time to pluck from the Mike McDaniels tree. Smith was McDaniels’ original hire at OC, overseeing Tua Tagovailoa’s MVP-level emergence since 2022. And he’s got a background with the Raiders, working under Jon Gruden as the tight ends coach from 2018-2020.

1. Jim Harbaugh (Michigan HC)

Harbaugh hasn’t coached in the NFL for nearly a decade, but he’s flirted with a return in recent years, admittedly interviewing with the Broncos and Vikings since 2022. Now he’s in the middle of murky contract negotiations with Michigan amid allegations of a sign-stealing scandal. If he ultimately opts to jump ship after nine years as the face of the Wolverines, the Raiders would make sense. Not only did Harbaugh begin his NFL coaching career with the team back in 2002, but he dominated on the West Coast as 49ers coach from 2011-2014.

Securing him wouldn’t necessarily erase potential discipline for his hand in Michigan’s alleged wrongdoing, but the Raiders might be willing to wait out a suspension if it meant getting Harbaugh on their sidelines for the next five to 10 years. His arrival would draw both big headlines and justified hopes of a turnaround.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com asks who is Davis listening to?  He has two candidates with Tampa Bay ties, one of whom knows Josh McDaniels quite well:

In order to understand why Raiders owner Mark Davis fired coach Josh McDaniels and G.M. Dave Ziegler and to reasonably predict what Davis might do next, one fact is important to know.

Who is advising Davis?

Every owner gets advice from someone. They usually don’t seek advice from or give advice to other owners; even though they’re partners when it comes to making money, they’re competitors when it comes to pitting their teams against each other.

Tom Brady currently is trying to buy a piece of the Raiders. Brady has already purchased a chunk of the Las Vegas Aces of the WNBA. Would Davis fire McDaniels and Ziegler without seeking the input of Brady, who played for McDaniels in New England for years? Did Brady object to the termination of McDaniels, or did Brady agree with it?

What about twice-former Raiders coach Jon Gruden? Is he still talking to Davis?

Whoever Davis is listening to presumably had influence over what he’s done, and over what he’ll do next.

The good news is that Davis has an extended opportunity to consider all options for conducting a broad and diverse search. Hopefully, he’ll dump any preconceived notions and try to find the right coach.

Along the way, hopefully he’ll listen to the right people.

Given his track record of hires since he inherited the team, either he hasn’t been getting good advice, or he’s been ignoring any good advice he’s gotten.

CLEVELAND

QB DESHAUN WATSON is vague as to whether or not he will play Sunday.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

As the Browns get ready for their Week 9 matchup with the Cardinals, there’s still plenty of uncertainty with their starting quarterback.

Deshaun Watson told reporters on Thursday that he’s unsure if he’ll be able to play on Sunday.

“Just following the medical protocols and we’ll just go from there,” Watson said in his press conference.

Watson was officially a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice with his right shoulder injury that he suffered in Week 3. He said his shoulder responded fine after the day’s work.

“It’s getting better each and every day,” Watson said. “The arrow is going up. The process has been very, very good. And we’re just steady, going day to day and making sure that we’re doing everything we can to build that strength and everything.”

Watson noted that after his limited playing time against the Colts, resting last week likely helped.

“I guess it did,” Watson said. “The biggest thing was, they don’t want to put me in a spot where I re-injure the shoulder. So, there’s a fine line that you’ve got to play with. And you’ve got to make sure you’re doing all the stuff that you need before you go back out there.”

Watson said there are hurdles he has to clear so that he’ll be officially ready to get back to play, but he declined to share exactly what they are. He also didn’t give a percentage on the way he feels right now. He reiterated multiple times that he and the organization are on the same page when it comes to his injury and return.

“I told the guys I was ready Indianapolis week. That was my decision and, look, I wasn’t ready,” Watson said. “So, I tried to jump the gun a little bit and it didn’t go our way. So, at the end of the day, you’ve got to listen to the experts.

“This is my first time dealing with this, so of course I know my body. So I’m keeping track of everything that I’m doing, letting them know what’s going on, and what’s good, what’s not good. So, I think we’ll all be on the same page and we’ll all feel right when that time comes.”

If Watson can’t start on Sunday, P.J. Walker will be behind center for Cleveland against Arizona.

THIS AND THAT

TRADES THAT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED

Former agent Joel Corry, writing at CBSSports.com, offers 3 trades that should have happened:

There was a flurry of activity as the trade deadline approached. Most notably, new owner Josh Harris put his stamp on the Commanders by revamping the defensive line, which was considered the strength of the team.

Edge rusher Montez Sweat, who is playing under an $11.5 million fifth-year option, was dealt to the Bears for a 2024 second-round pick. Young, Sweat’s counterpart at defensive end, was acquired by the 49ers for a 2024 compensatory third-round pick. The 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year is also in a contract year because the Commanders declined to pick up his $17.452 million fifth-year option during the offseason.

Here are three more trades that should have been made before the deadline that may have improved the chances of teams to make the postseason or go on a deep playoff run. The financial ramifications of the moves are highlighted. Salary cap space is based on NFLPA data.

Trades for big-name players such as Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams, Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns and Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II weren’t contemplated. There was no chance any of these three were going to be dealt before the deadline.

An acquiring team would have needed enough salary cap room to absorb the remainder of the player’s current salary. Since the trades would have occurred after Week 8’s games, the acquiring team would have been responsible for 10/18ths of a player’s 2023 base salary and any other applicable salary components in his contract.

Trades can’t be executed again until the 2024 league year begins on next March 13.

Derrick Henry (RB): To Ravens from Titans

Trade compensation: Conditional 2024 fourth-round pick (third round if Ravens advance to AFC Championship Game or Henry rushes for at least 1,300 yards) and RB Gus Edwards

Henry remaining 2023 salary: $6,333,333 (includes $500,000 likely to be earned incentive)

Edwards remaining 2023 salary: $602,222

Titans 2023 salary cap room: $10,175,673 ($4,231,111 2023 salary cap savings with $4.5 million salary conversion before trade)

Ravens 2023 salary cap room: $3,556,328 ($1,231,111 salary cap expenditure)

Titans 2024 dead money: $7,735,294 (with salary conversion and 2024 and 2025 voiding contract years)

Ravens 2024 dead money: $1.84 million (2024 through 2026 voiding contract years)

The Titans dealing two-time first-team All-Pro Bowl safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles for safety Terrell Edmunds, a 2024 fifth-round pick and a 2024 sixth-round pick last week suggested he wouldn’t be the only player leaving Tennessee via trade. 2023 second-round pick Will Levis having a good debut start in a 28-23 win over the Falcons on Sunday may have altered Tennessee’s thinking. Realistically, the Titans, who have a 3-4 record, will be fighting for a wild-card spot at best given the 6-2 Jaguars are clearly in control of the AFC South.

The Titans and Ravens reportedly had some discussions about a trade. The Ravens have a history of being aggressive at the trade deadline with acquisitions of edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, cornerback Marcus Peters and linebacker Roquan Smith in recent years. Henry would have added a different dimension to the rushing attack for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. The last time the Ravens got past the divisional playoffs was during the 2012 season when they won Super Bowl XLVII.

It’s unlikely Henry fits into Tennessee’s plans beyond this season considering he has an expiring contract and will be 30 in January. The Titans used a third-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft on Tyjae Spears to seemingly be Henry’s replacement. Losing Henry would have left Spears as the lone running back on Tennessee’s 53-man roster. Edwards is a bigger running back (6-foot-1 and 238 pounds) in the mold of Henry although not nearly as talented. He also has an expiring contract.

The Ravens lack the cap space to take on Henry’s contract even with Edwards’ remaining salary coming off their books. Henry is making $10.5 million, all base salary, during the 2023 season. He also has a $500,000 incentive for 1,300 or more rushing yards that’s classified as likely to be earned because he had 1,538 yards on the ground last season.

By the Titans converting $4.5 million of Henry’s remaining $5,833,333 into a signing bonus to facilitate the trade, the Ravens would have only been responsible for $1,333,333 in salary plus the $500,000 cap charge for the rushing incentive. This could have been easily accommodated by the Ravens.

The Titans would have picked up $4,2311,111 of 2023 cap space from adding Edwards and dealing Henry thanks to losing his remaining base salary, the incentive, and the signing bonus being prorated through 2025 at $1.5 million annually because voiding 2024 and 2025 contract years were added during a 2022 contract restructure.

There was going to be $4,735,294 in 2024 dead money when Henry’s contract expired after the season because of the restructure. It would have increased to $7,735,294 with the additional $3 million in proration associated with 2024 and 2025 due to the salary conversion prior to the trade.

Mike Gesicki (TE): To Bengals from Patriots

Trade compensation: 2024 fifth-round pick

Remaining 2023 salary: $1,138,889 (Patriots 2023 salary cap savings)

Bengals 2023 salary cap room: $10.81 million

Patriots 2024 dead money: None (expiring contract)

It would have been uncharacteristic for the Bengals to make a move at the trade deadline. An upgrade at tight end could have been justified because Irv Smith, Jr. isn’t having much of an impact. He hasn’t been an adequate replacement for Hayden Hurst, who turned his one-year stint in Cincinnati last season into a three-year, $21.75 million deal with the Panthers as a free agent.

The Patriots probably should have been sellers before the trading period ended. The 2-6 start to the season is the worst in Bill Belichick’s illustrious head coaching career since 2000 when he took over in New England.

Gesicki demonstrated he could be a reliable threat in the passing game with the Dolphins prior to Mike McDaniel’s arrival last season. The Patriots have some depth at tight end behind Hunter Henry in Pharaoh Brown.

Hunter Renfrow (WR): To Raiders from Saints

Trade compensation: 2024 sixth-round pick

Remaining 2023 salary: $3,944,111 ($3,235,111 Raiders 2023 salary cap savings with $1.8 million salary conversion before trade)

Saints 2023 cap room: $4.244 million

Raiders 2024 dead money: $6.858 million ($6.268 million salary cap savings with salary conversion)

player headshot

The Raiders and Saints were close on a trade, according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport. The holdup was reportedly how much of Renfrow’s remaining 2023 salary the Raiders were going to eat in the deal. Given that Renfrow has been virtually non-existent this season and a likely salary cap casualty in the offseason, the Raiders should have been willing convert a significant portion of Renfrow’s money to signing bonus pre-trade. He has 10 catches for 92 yards in eight games this season.

Renfrow would have been reunited with quarterback Derek Carr in New Orleans. He was Carr’s favorite target in 2021 when he caught 103 passes for 1,038 yards with nine touchdowns. The Raiders rewarded Renfrow with a two-year, $31.7 million extension worth a maximum of $32 million in June 2022.

Renfrow’s remaining 2023 compensation consists of $3,611,111 in base salary and $333,000 of per game active roster bonuses. Since Renfrow was active for 10 games in 2022, only $74,000 of the $333,000 is currently a cap charge. With each successive game where Renfrow is active beyond last year’s number, $37,000 of 2023 cap space will be lost. There’s also the 2024 contract year worth $11.882 million.

Renfrow would have taken up $1,885,111 of the Saints’ 2023 cap space with the Raiders converting $1.8 million of Renfrow’s remaining base salary into signing bonus. The 2024 dead money would have increased by $1.35 million because the new signing bonus would be prorated at $450,000 annually due to there being voiding 2025 and 2026 contract years in Renfrow’s deal.

Adding $11.882 million in 2024 salary would be a deal breaker for practically any other team when there are already nearly $322 million in cap commitments for next year like the Saints have. Pushing as many cap obligations into the future as possible by restructuring contracts doesn’t faze the Saints. It’s standard operating procedure.

New Orleans has a legitimate shot at winning a weak NFC South. The Falcons and Saints are tied for first place with 4-4 records.

MID-YEAR AWARDS

From Nate Tice of YahooSports.com:

We’re (kinda sorta) at the midway point of the NFL season, so what better way to celebrate than with some awards! Purely digital and arbitrary, but a fun exercise nonetheless. It’s a wide-open season in the standings that also makes handing out these awards a fun game of choose-your-own-adventure.

I’ll be hitting all the major stuff today. Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Best Original Screenplay, etc. etc. But I just want to emphasize that these awards are being handed out based on what has happened so far through eight weeks in the NFL season, and not on who I think will win the award at the end of the season. It’s midseason awards, after all, not midseason predictions.

Without further adieu, the envelope, please …

Offensive Player of the Year nominees …

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

So many of these awards have strong contenders, and the Offensive Player of the Year is a great microcosm of the other awards to come.

It is simply a joy to watch McCaffrey with the football. He knows exactly when to press every button, making running the ball look like he’s playing a mini-game for when to time up hitting the circle button and when to hit the right stick:

He leads the NFL in rushing with 652 yards and total touchdowns with 13, having scored in an NFL record-tying 17 straight games now. He’s second in yards from scrimmage, only behind Hill. He is currently second in rushing success rate and first in the amount of times fantasy owners said “thank God I drafted that guy”.

He is the best receiving running back in the game and one of the most efficient receivers at any position period, sitting 20th in successful targets per route, between Chris Olave and Mark Andrews.

Brown, meanwhile, has gone supernova since week three and topped 900 receiving yards over the first eight weeks. His current mark of 3.13 yards per route run would make him just the fourth receiver since 2013 to eclipse three yards, and would be slightly better than Cooper Kupp’s mark of 3.12 in 2021, the year he won the receiving triple crown. Brown is currently having a year that would stack up among the best over at least the past decade.

The problem is that while McCaffrey and Brown are having fantastic seasons, Hill is currently having a historic one. He has already topped the millennium mark in receiving yards and is on pace to topple Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964.

His 4.26 yards per route run would be easily the highest since 2013, which is as far back as TruMedia’s data goes. Hill set the record last year at 3.21 yards, he’s over a yard higher per route right now. That is ridiculous. Like, simply ridiculous.

He is averaging an explosive catch (reception of 16 yards or more) once every 10 routes, which again would be the highest mark since 2013. And with eight touchdowns to boot.

Excellent seasons so far from all three players. But “season for the history books” is different from excellent. Hill is the easy call.

(And keep an eye on Ja’Marr Chase’s case in the second half of the year. The Bengals are doing things with him that are intriguing.)

Mid-season Offensive Player of the Year pick: Tyreek Hill

Defensive Player of the Year nominees…

Myles Garrett, EDGE, Cleveland Browns

Dexter Lawrence, DT, New York Giants

Micah Parsons, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys

T.J. Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Another absolute loaded group to sift through. Shouts to reigning award winner Nick Bosa, who didn’t make the shortlist but might be sitting on a bigger second half to come.

This is impossibly close, but I am giving the nod to Garrett. He has always been an upper-echelon defender, but he’s leveled up so far this season, gaining a boost in surrounding teammates and a defensive play-caller in Jim Schwartz more than excited to move him around to blast open cracks in the offensive line’s armor, with Garrett acting as his 275-pound detonation device.

Midseason Defensive Player of the Year pick: Myles Garrett

Offensive Rookie of the Year nominee…

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

This one is kind of open and shut. Bijan Robinson has been as advertised and has been incredibly efficient. (Look for his workload to start increasing even more soon.) Jahmyr Gibbs is just starting to put together a case, and De’Von Achane lost momentum on his.

If you are a “offensive lineman deserve love, too” person, Arizona Cardinals offensive lineman Paris Johnson Jr. has been impressive playing a whole new position at right tackle, and looks like a building block for a rebuilding Cardinals team.

Due respect to them, it’s Nacua.

Midseason Offensive Rookie of the Year pick: Puka Nacua

Defensive Rookie of the Year nominees:

Brian Branch, DB, Detroit Lions

Devon Witherspoon, DB, Seattle Seahawks

Byron Young, EDGE, Los Angeles Rams

Jalen Carter, DT, Philadelphia Eagles

Another tough one!

Detroit Lions defensive back Brian Branch started the season with a bang, Seattle Seahawks defensive back Devon Witherspoon has looked special in his six games,Rams edge rusher Byron Young has been flashing real potential in getting to the quarterback…

But it’s hard to watch a Philadelphia Eagles game and not see the impact Jalen Carter has on games already in his young career. No. 98 uses offensive linemen like a weapon to attack the quarterback, moving them at ease as he figures out his best path to flatten the passer, while also flashing finesse and quickness that shouldn’t be possible at 6-foot-3 and 314 pounds:

He has 3.5 sacks and currently ranks sixth among all defenders in pressure rate, higher than players like Nick Bosa, Chris Jones and Aaron Donald. Carter is the total package as an interior defensive linemen, with the ability to impact the run and pass. It’s going to be an absolute experience watching his game continue to grow as he tosses offensive linemen out of the way on his path toward stardom.

Midseason Defensive Rookie of the Year pick: Jalen Carter

Assistant Coach of the Year nominees:

Jim Schwartz, Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator

Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator

Mike Macdonald, Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator

Mike Caldwell, Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator

With apologies to coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn in Detroit, who split votes in my head, I went elsewhere in my shortlist. It’s the year of the defense in the NFL, and it feels apt that the award winner should be on that side of the ball.

Mike Caldwell in Jacksonville leads an improved side, with game plans that show off personality and awareness of opponent tendency. Steve Spagnuolo and Jim Schwartz are longtime assistant coaches who are partying like it’s 2009.

But I’m giving this very prestigious midseason award to Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The Ravens have been consistently the best defense so far this season. Macdonald doesn’t major in any one thing, but instead adapts and custom-tailors his game plans for opponents, messing with protection rules on one snap and the quarterback’s reads on the next.  There are a lot of talented defensive coaches right now in the NFL. Macdonald is sitting right at the top.

Midseason Assistant Coach of the Year pick: Mike Macdonald

Coach of the Year nominees:

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins

Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions

Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

The choices! Is it Dan Campbell restoring the roar in Detroit? With a team playing well-coached football on both sides and Campbell himself displaying some of the best game and clock management and awareness of any head coach in the entire league?

Or is it Mike McDaniel, with his innovative offense already reverberating through the league? Leading one of the most explosive offenses in the past two decades and doing it in one of the toughest eras to ever score points?

Pete Carroll has the Seahawks in first in the NFC West, a team that many thought might be pretty good this year, but looks even better than anticipated and I currently think of among the league’s best. And I can say the same for the Jaguars! Doug Pederson’s team is playing good ball on both sides, he’s aggressive as always on fourth down and he has put together some strong wins. With some cleaned-up turnovers, they can be a force.

But my assistant coach nod was a bit of a teaser for my head coach nod, which I’ll be giving to Macdonald’s boss in Baltimore: John Harbaugh.

The Ravens are performing like a top unit on both offense and defense and feature a quarterback who is playing at an MVP-level, all while battling a laundry list of injuries (what else is new in Baltimore). With some health and turnover luck, they could be even more scary in the loaded AFC. Another monster in the mash fighting for a playoff spot.

Midseason Coach of the Year pick: John Harbaugh

Most Valuable Player

Nominee – Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offense has felt disjointed at times this season while working out their wide receiver pecking order (Rashee Rice is showing some real flashes recently) and working through an ineffective run game (31st in rushing success rate!). But they’ve had the luxury of a young defense that has vastly improved and is playing like a borderline top-five unit so far this season.

The other luxury this Chiefs team has is Patrick Mahomes, who, as long as he is healthy, is going to be in contention for this award. He is inevitable in the most Thanos-like way possible, still ranking second in QBR and ranking among the league’s best in all of the other metrics, all while holding auditions with wide receiver room in the middle of the NFL regular season. He is also the new reigning champ of the backbreaking third-down scramble; no one has generated more expected points added (EPA) on scrambles this year than Mahomes.

Oh and speaking of inevitability, the Chiefs are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC and their offense still ranks fifth in DVOA. This is while sorting its personnel and best method of attack going forward (outside of more heapings of Mahomes to Travis Kelce). They will likely take another leap following their post-Frankfurt game bye week.

Mahomes has still been very, very good and is still the best player in the world. But he hasn’t quite played to the ridiculously high standard that we have for him this year. Still a lot of season left, however …

Speaking of that game in Frankfurt:

Nominee – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa is behind the wheel of the offense that does its best impression of an F1 car every single week, adding new motions and formation tweaks like they’re sponsor stickers and creating oodles of space for their scorching fast offensive weapons. Tagovailoa’s whole game is timing and anticipation. He has average-at-best arm strength, but is able to maximize it by getting rid of the ball well before his receiver breaks on their route:

For the box score crowd, the lefty is currently first in passing yards at 2,416 and net yards per attempt at a hysterical 8.25. (To put that into context: Daniel Jones currently averages half of that number.) And, of course, the Dolphins sit at 6-2 and first in the AFC East.

But I just couldn’t quite get there with making Tagovailoa MVP so far.

And there’s also the debate, much like with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, over how much of the Dolphins’ offensive success is because of its driver or the car. Is it the driver, i.e. Tagovailoa, operating the machine as designed? Or is it the souped-up car, which features an Offensive Player of the Year candidate in Tyreek Hill, a strong No. 2 pass catcher in Jaylen Waddle and an innovative play-caller in Mike McDaniel who’s already having his creations covered more times than The Beatles. It’s all just enough to keep Tagovailoa at third.

Nominee – Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

We know Lamar Jackson can run. His legs have been sawing off shrieking defenders like they’re starring in an “Evil Dead” sequel for years, and he currently has the most rushes of 10 yards or more, while also generating the most rushing EPA of any quarterback this season. But Jackson’s long underrated strength – operating from the pocket – has been on full display this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

The rushing stats are of course strong. But the passing stats aren’t as overwhelming so far with Jackson as they are with the other nominees. They are still in the good to very good range and will get a significant boost when Jackson and the Ravens’ offense choose better times to turn the ball over (preferably never). But he’s still outside of the cream of the crop that the other quarterbacks listed here have.

I wish I had more argument than the fact that Jackson just feels dominant again. The passing is efficient and feels like it’s sustainable with more answers to the problems of the past. Even if some of the results haven’t fully reflected that process, Jackson has been carrying a Ravens team that has dealt with injuries to seemingly every position so far this season

2023 Midseason Most Valuable Player: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Where to begin with the player that I have lovingly liked to call “Professor Chaos.” He sits first in QBR, second in dropback success rate, third in EPA per dropback (first if you don’t include the Shanahan offense-boosted quarterbacks). He has accounted for more touchdowns than any other player so far this season (17 passing, five rushing). He has generated the second-most rushing EPA of any quarterback, slightly behind Lamar Jackson. He has more rushing first downs than Breece Hall – and they aren’t all sneaks!

Allen has tightened his decision-making tremendously and is a positive play machine with both his arms and legs. And most importantly, he’s gotten much better at limiting negative plays. His 4% sack rate (along with Mahomes’ 3.2%) is insane considering how much the ball is in his hands and what kind of creation he is capable of. And he’s only lost 55 yards on the times he was sacked, lowest in the league among all starters.

Allen is Happy Gilmore learning how to putt, alternating between making a pizza or french fry with the skis in his brain and choosing when to enter berserker mode and when to rein it back:

Don’t let those run-around highlights fool you. Allen continues to fine tune the little things of playing quarterback, and he has helped the Bills continue to win games despite their defense seemingly losing a starter every quarter.

Top of the line stats while winning games. And doing it while carrying the load so large that it has Atlas feeling empathy. What’s more valuable than that?