THE DAILY BRIEFING
| If we had been told in September by a visitor from the future that when the Rams and Buccaneers met in Week 9 that each team would be 3-5, the assumption would be that a quarterback injury had befallen each team. Not so, eight starts each for QBs MATTHEW STAFFORD and TOM BRADY.
The same for the 3-5 Packers – nope, no QB JORDAN LOVE sighting, Hall of Famer-to-be QB AARON RODGERS has started every game.
QB RUSSELL WILSON of the 3-5 Broncos, another HOFer, has missed only one game.
Where are they in Passer Rating? Not very good:
1 Tua Tagovailoa 112.7
2 Patrick Mahomes 109.5
3 Geno Smith 107.2
4 Josh Allen 105.9
5 Jalen Hurts 105.1
6 Joe Burrow 101.9
7 Jimmy Garoppolo 100.7
8 Andy Dalton 95.1
9 Aaron Rodgers 94.5
10 Lamar Jackson 94.2
11 Jared Goff 93.2
12 Ryan Tannehill 92.8
13 Marcus Mariota 92.7
14 Tom Brady 92.4
15 Justin Herbert 91.8
16 Kirk Cousins 90.7
17 Daniel Jones 88.0
18 Jacoby Brissett 86.8
19 Derek Carr 86.8
20 Matthew Stafford 85.5
21 Kyler Murray 85.3
22 Trevor Lawrence 84.8
23 Matt Ryan 84.7
24 Carson Wentz 84.1
25 Russell Wilson 83.5
26 Davis Mills 81.9 |
| NFC NORTH |
|
GREEN BAY
QB AARON RODGERS tries to say the right things about the stand-pat Packers. Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:
One day after the Green Bay Packers tried — but ultimately failed — to pull off a trade to aid their struggling offense, quarterback Aaron Rodgers said everyone in the locker room understood the reality of what now faces a team in the midst of a four-game losing streak.
“That just sent the message to us that we’ve got to play with the guys we’ve got and win with the guys we’ve got,” Rodgers said Wednesday. “I think there’s still a lot of confidence in the guys in the locker room. I do feel like we need to get healthy.”
Earlier on Wednesday, coach Matt LaFleur insisted he spent Tuesday preparing for Sunday’s game at the Lions rather than pestering general manager Brian Gutekunst for added personnel. If Rodgers was disappointed that Gutekunst didn’t land anyone before Tuesday’s trade deadline, he kept that to himself during his regular Wednesday session with reporters at his locker.
Gutekunst, according to sources involved in Tuesday’s trade negotiations, was in on at least two players: Steelers receiver Chase Claypool, who went to the Bears for a second-round pick, and another offensive skill-position player who ultimately did not get moved before the trade deadline.
“Obviously, the compensation for whatever players we were going after, it just didn’t make sense,” Rodgers said. “So I trust Brian and we had some good conversations and I know we were in on some things and it obviously just didn’t pan out.”
Rodgers suggested that if the Packers (3-5) can get some of their injured players on the field more consistently, they have a chance. They haven’t played with their five preferred offensive line starters together in a game yet this season. Last Sunday’s loss at Buffalo was supposed to be the first time, but guard Elgton Jenkins was a last-minute scratch because of a foot injury. A week earlier it was left tackle David Bakhtiari who experienced problems with his surgically repaired left knee and was a surprise inactive.
Even when they’ve gotten players back, it hasn’t lasted. Case in point, rookie receiver Christian Watson. He returned against the Bills after missing two games (and three of the past five) because of a hamstring injury only to sustain a concussion in the first quarter at Buffalo.
Receivers Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb all have missed multiple games. Lazard, who did not play at Buffalo because of a shoulder injury, returned to practice on Wednesday.
“We’ve got to hopefully get [Watson] and [Lazard] back this week, Cobby in a couple more weeks,” Rodgers said. “We’re hopeful that both Elgton and Dave will be able to go, and there’s no surprises on game day.
“I think that squad, when you put that together, I think we can win some football games with those guys. That’s what we’re all hoping for, is just to get a little bit healthier and then everybody play a little bit better.”
That includes Rodgers, whose play hasn’t come close to that of his previous two seasons for which he was named the NFL’s MVP. He hasn’t had a 300-yard passing day in 12 straight games, tied for the longest such streak of his career. His yards per pass attempt of 6.6 is on pace for the lowest of his career and would be only the second time he has averaged fewer than 7 yards per attempt.
“The confidence for me comes from within that I feel like that anytime I can go on a run and have gone on runs of playing at a near-perfection level,” he said. “I know when I’m playing well, I can raise the level of my teammates in the locker room. I’m going to expect to reach that level. Obviously, we’ve got to do some things up front and protect and be able to push the ball down the field.”
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com is puzzled:
It’s time to answer everybody’s favorite deadline question. The Packers reportedly were interested in Claypool before being outbid by their division rivals. With $7.5 million in cap space and all of their picks coming before the sixth round, they had resources to add an option at receiver.
They also appeared to have a reason to think something was wrong. The previous three seasons, general manager Brian Gutekunst and the Packers’ front office could point to the results as evidence that they didn’t need receiver help. Green Bay went 13-3, 13-3 and 13-4 over those seasons. Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021. On paper it might have seemed like the Packers needed more, but in practice, they were one of the league’s best teams.
This year is different. The Packers traded Davante Adams and lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, and then replaced them with the trio of Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The latter is the only one who has made any impact this season, but it’s clear the rookie fourth-rounder isn’t ready to be the team’s No. 1 wideout. Randall Cobb is on injured reserve. Allen Lazard — who is also hurt — hasn’t been a No. 1 as a pro before and hasn’t looked like a high-volume target when healthy this season.
On top of that, Green Bay isn’t winning. It has lost four straight and fallen 3.5 games behind the Vikings in the NFC North. The offense ranks 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per play and 26th in points per drive. It’s one thing to lose to the Bills, but the Packers have lost to the Giants, Jets and Commanders, with the latter starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke. For a team with a 38-year-old quarterback who has made public overtures toward a life outside of football, alarm bells should be going off.
And yet, the Packers stayed put. They didn’t get a deal done for Denver’s Jerry Jeudy or KJ Hamler. The Panthers reportedly weren’t interested in trading DJ Moore. Green Bay didn’t top the offer the Chiefs sent to the Giants for Kadarius Toney. The Jets didn’t seem desperate to honor Elijah Moore’s trade request. With Claypool off the table, the Packers might not have seen a receiver they loved.
Isn’t there someone, though, who would have given them another pass-game option? The Patriots could have unloaded Nelson Agholor or Kendrick Bourne. The Dolphins have barely used free-agent addition Cedrick Wilson Jr. The Texans reportedly considered trading Brandin Cooks, and while his $18 million guaranteed salary in 2023 might have been a tough squeeze for the Packers, what alternative do they have outside of next year’s draft?
If anything, not making a deadline move makes it seem like the Packers don’t think a wide receiver can get them back into contention. ESPN’s FPI thinks Green Bay has a 38.6% chance of advancing to the postseason and only a 1.2% chance of winning a Super Bowl, down from a league-high 14.2% before the season. It would be foolish to count them out altogether. It’s possible they land free agent Odell Beckham Jr., whose price should get higher each week as the Packers and Rams get more desperate. As constructed, though, it sure looks like the Packers needed to do something this week. |
|
MINNESOTA
TE T.J. HOCKENSON has a new outlook now that he is out of Detroit. Grant Gordon ofNFL.com:
Tight end T.J. Hockenson isn’t moving all that far from where he’s played the first three-plus seasons of his career.
It does feel like a different world since he was traded from the Detroit Lions to the Minnesota Vikings on Tuesday, however.
“Really what we’re here to do is go somewhere and win some games,” Hockenson said, via the Associated Press’ Dave Campbell. “That’s kind of the first time I’ve been able to say that.”
In one day, Hockenson took the elevator up from last place in the NFC North with the Lions (1-6) to first place in the division with the Vikings (6-1).
The No. 8 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, Hockenson has experienced nothing but last-place finishes with Detroit, which was 12-42-2 during his time there. Though it’s probably not going to take all that long to get comfortable joining a team that’s won five in a row after leaving a squad that’s dropped five straight, Hockenson is getting a crash course in the Vikings offense as he prepares to debut for Minnesota on Sunday against the Washington Commanders.
“It’s one thing to be able to see it on paper and say, ‘OK, oh, yeah, I got it,’ but then you hear it and you have to mentally decipher everything. It’s a different story,” Hockenson said. “So it’s definitely a process, and I’m starting.”
Throughout his tenure in Detroit, Hockenson displayed flashes of his big-time potential, but never became a consistent producer. He was a Pro Bowler in 2020 with 67 receptions, 723 yards and six touchdowns, but that season didn’t springboard Hockenson to more success. Instead, those numbers remain his career highs. So far this season, he’s racked up 26 catches, three touchdowns and 395 yards — with 179 of those yards and two scores coming in one game.
With Irv Smith on the mend, Hockenson will jump into the TE1 spot and join an offense that boasts quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook and wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The ninth-ranked scoring offense in the league has bolstered its ranks with Hockenson, who’s not just hungry to produce but hungry to be part of a winning squad for the first time.
“I’m just excited to have a piece in this puzzle. A lot of good guys around here. This facility is beautiful, so I’m just excited to be here, man,” Hockenson said. “There’s nowhere I’d rather be.”
More from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
When T.J. Hockenson was traded by the Lions hours before the NFL trade deadline, he wasn’t surprised. But he was pleasantly surprised that he was sent to Minnesota.
“I kinda knew. I had a little idea. I didn’t expect here, but obviously super, super excited to be here,” Hockenson said. “When I got here last night I was like, This is pretty sweet. Just excited to be here, for real.”
Hockenson said he’s already at work at learning the language of the Vikings’ offense.
“I’m grinding. I got in last night and they gave me my iPad,” Hockenson said. “I’m trying to learn this offense as much as I can. There’s a lot of ins and outs to it, but football is football. This will be my fourth offense now that I’ve been in throughout my career, so just learning new terminology.”
Hockenson is from Chariton, Iowa, so his homies are now about 300 miles from his home stadium.
Thoughts on the Hockenson deal from Bill Barnwell:
No team that is a virtual lock to make it to the postseason is flying quite as under the radar as the 6-1 Vikings. They haven’t been dominant — each of their five wins during this streak have been decided by eight points or fewer — but their success and the combined 7-16 record of the other three teams in the North have Kevin O’Connell’s team positioned to host multiple playoff games. The Vikings have a 96.1% chance of making it to the postseason and a 63.9% chance of finishing as one of the top two seeds in the NFC, per ESPN’s FPI.
Tight end suddenly became a need for the Vikings after Irv Smith Jr. went down with a high-ankle sprain — he’s expected to miss at least eight weeks — so it was no surprise that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah went into the trade market for a replacement. Making a significant investment, though, was surprising. The Vikings sent a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-rounder to the Lions for Hockenson, a 2023 fourth-round pick and a 2024 conditional fourth-rounder.
Let’s start with the picks. Using the Chase Stuart chart, we can estimate how valuable the two hauls were in either direction. We know the Lions are going to be picking near the top of the 2023 draft, but I’m treating the two teams’ draft order in 2024 as roughly equivalent to one another since projecting a year out is unrealistic. These two general managers both also are likely to be in place in 2024, and they each have a 2024 pick going in either direction, so I don’t think we need to be too concerned about the time value of the selections.
I’d estimate the Vikings traded the equivalent of a late third-round selection (around pick No. 91) to the Lions to get Hockenson. If that doesn’t seem like a lot, keep in mind the Vikings are sending a pick likely to fall at the bottom of the second round while picking up a fourth-rounder that should be one of the first off the board.
Minnesota is picking up a 25-year-old Hockenson, who is under contract for $536,000 across the rest of 2022 and a $9.3 million fifth-year option in 2023. The latter is fully guaranteed, so the Vikings should have their new tight end under contract for at least a season and a half, though I suspect they’ll talk about an extension before then. In fact, I suspect it’s one of the reasons why they made this trade.
The drastic rise at the top of the wide receiver market last offseason increased the pay gap between wide receivers and tight ends. I typically use the value of a contract over its first three seasons to estimate how much a deal is really worth for a player and a team. The top 20 wide receiver deals pay $57.3 million over their first three seasons, while the top 20 tight end deals average just $29.3 million over that window.
Obviously, teams need more wide receivers than tight ends, but even the true top-end deals for tight ends are well short of the wideout market. Mark Andrews’ four-year, $56 million extension in September 2021 pays him an average of $14 million per year over its first three seasons. The most comparable contracts for Andrews at wide receiver are the free-agent pacts inked by Allen Robinson II (three years, $46.5 million) and Corey Davis (three years, $37.5 million). Obviously, Andrews is a different class of player than those two veteran wideouts. George Kittle’s extension, signed a month earlier, had even less money in Years 1-3.
The Vikings have a superstar wideout in Justin Jefferson, and they’re going to be giving him a massive extension this offseason. In thinking about a second veteran for this offense over the next few years behind Jefferson, it’s reasonable to look at a tight end such as Hockenson and wonder whether he’s a better option than paying the same price for a less-talented wide receiver.
The move, in context with the Jefferson extension to come, also tells us how the Vikings view their offensive playmakers. Wideout Adam Thielen is 32, and most of his efficiency metrics are down for the third consecutive season. Smith and running back Alexander Mattison are both unrestricted free agents after the season. Dalvin Cook remains productive, but the Vikings can get out of his deal after this season with just $6 million in dead money, and I would wonder whether an analytically inclined front office thinks paying any running back $11 million in 2023 is good business.
I also wonder if this is a move to lock in a second playmaker around Minnesota’s next quarterback. Kirk Cousins’ deal is tradable after this season, though he has the right to veto any move. A no-trade clause doesn’t mean that a trade is impossible; he might very well prefer to head to a team such as the Colts or Giants this offseason if a contract extension is involved. The 34-year-old is an unrestricted free agent after 2023.
It remains to be seen whether the new braintrust values Cousins as anything more than a league-average starter. It’s possible the Vikings trade up to grab a rookie quarterback as early as 2023, and adding Hockenson would give them two building blocks for that young, inexpensive starter. Fitting Cousins, Cook, Hockenson and a newly expensive Jefferson under the cap would be a squeeze for the Vikings, who have been hamstrung by Cousins’ contract for several seasons.
Of course, Hockenson is a starting-caliber tight end, but I don’t think the Lions would have taken him with the No. 8 overall pick in 2019 if they had known this would be the outcome. If he had originally been drafted in the fourth round, we likely would not think of him as much more than a solid player. His receiving production is right in line with Tyler Higbee and Evan Engram since entering the league.
Compared to other tight ends, Hockenson ranked eighth in yards per route run in both 2020 and 2021. That figure has dropped to 13th in 2022, where virtually all of his receiving yardage has come in two games against the Seahawks and Dolphins. Iowa tight ends are almost always solid blockers, but Hockenson was drafted in the top 10 because the Lions thought he could be a difference-maker in the passing game. I don’t think defenses treat him as a player who scares them on an every-snap basis — but perhaps that changes in Minnesota.
Hockenson’s disappointing tenure in Detroit might also give teams pause when they think about drafting tight ends in Round 1. Leaving 2021 pick Kyle Pitts out of the equation, the hit rate for tight ends on opening day has not been high. For every successful pick such as Vernon Davis or Greg Olsen, there’s usually two or three who failed to develop as expected. Tight end is also a slower-developing position than most others, which can cost teams who grow impatient; while the Bears drafted Olsen, most of his success came with Carolina. |
| NFC EAST |
|
PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles have lost prized rookie DT JORDAN DAVIS. Bo Wulf of The Athletic:
The Eagles placed rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis on injured reserve Wednesday, the team announced. Here’s what you need to know:
Davis left Sunday’s win against the Steelers after suffering an ankle injury in the second quarter.
He’ll be eligible to return in Week 13 against the Titans.
The first-round pick has collected 14 tackles (one for a loss) in seven games.
Backstory
Davis, who has started Philadelphia’s last five games, will now miss at least the next four, including Thursday night’s game against the Texans. He’s also out for games against the Commanders, Colts and Packers.
The Eagles selected Davis with the 13th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft out of Georgia. He’s averaged 22 snaps per game during Philadelphia’s 7-0 start.
Cornerback Josiah Scott was also declared out for Thursday’s game on Wednesday.
How big of a loss is Davis?
The Eagles traded up in the first round to select Davis in large part because of how he changes what they can do schematically. He has been their nose tackle in odd fronts, which have performed better for the No. 2 defense by DVOA than their even-man fronts. The good news is the schedule over the few weeks remains relatively easy. – Wulf
How the Eagles will replace him
Javon Hargrave was the Eagles’ nose tackle last year and can perform that duty in Davis’ absence. But that mutes the impact he can make as a pass-rusher. Second-year defensive tackle Marlon Tuipulotu has fared OK as the fifth man in the defensive tackle rotation and can play nose tackle as well. Look for practice squad defensive tackle Marvin Wilson to be elevated as well. |
|
WASHINGTON
A EDGE CHASE YOUNG sighting at Commanders’ practice. Ben Standig of The Athletic:
Washington Commanders defensive end Chase Young was back at practice Wednesday for the first time since tearing his ACL in Week 10 of the 2021 season.
“I felt real good, I felt pretty springy,” Young said. “Obviously we didn’t have pads on or anything like that, but just getting back in motion … just feeling like a football player again, it felt good.”
Here’s what you need to know:
Young was the No. 2 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and earned 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
He suffered a right ACL tear in Washington’s Week 10 win over Tampa Bay last season. The surgery to repair the injury was not straightforward as it required surgeons to graft part of his healthy left patella tendon to help repair the injured knee.
Wednesday’s move opens Young’s 21-day practice window. Earlier this week Commanders coach Ron Rivera said Young would participate in individual drills on Wednesday and continue individual work on a side field when team drills start.
Young declined to say whether or not he’d play in Sunday’s game against the Vikings.
How Young looked in practice
Pre-practice stretching is important, though often a perfunctory exercise that players participate in thousands of times. That was the case for nearly all of the Washington Commanders, with one notable exception.
Young combined calisthenics and dance moves as the practice soundtrack poured out of the speakers. The third-year player was giddy to show off his “Griddy” skills. Smooth as they are, that wasn’t why Young’s smile became fixated on his face or why fellow defensive end Montez Sweat felt a “boost.”
“He’s a big juice guy, a leader for us,” Sweat said of pass-rushing tag-team partner. “Always good to have somebody like that back.” — Standig
When Young could return for Commanders
The Commanders need Young back on the field, but they don’t need him rushing his return. Defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne warrant Pro Bowl consideration based on their interior prowess. Sweat is stacking one impressive showing on top of another, while the combination of James Smith-Williams, Casey Toohill, and Efe Obada have provided steady work in Young’s absence.
Regardless, adding an explosive pass rusher of Young’s natural ability is the type of talent that could push Washington’s defense up a level heading into a crucial portion of the season. That won’t happen Sunday against the 6-1 Vikiings – “That’s probably jumping the gun,” head coach Ron Rivera said – but soon.
There’s the physical aspect of his recovery and the mental component of trusting his surgically-repaired knee. Young said he gained comfort tangling with tight end Logan Thomas during a practice drill.
“Chase looked good,” Rivera said. “He’s anxious.”
The Department of Justice has now joined House Democrats in going after Daniel Snyder. This is important enough for Don Van Natta, Jr. of ESPN.com to get the scoop:
The U.S. attorney’s office in the Eastern District of Virginia has opened a criminal investigation into allegations that the Washington Commanders engaged in financial improprieties, two sources familiar with the matter confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday.
The sources said that prosecutors are focused on several areas and that the inquiry was triggered by a letter the House Committee on Oversight and Reform sent to the Federal Trade Commission and several attorneys general in April that alleged deceptive business practices. Attorneys general in Virginia and Washington, D.C., also are investigating allegations of financial impropriety.
Team spokesperson Jean Medina did not immediately comment but provided a statement from attorney John Brownlee of Holland & Knight, who represents the Commanders.
“It is not surprising that ESPN is publishing more falsehoods based solely on anonymous sources — given today’s announcement,” the statement said. “…We are confident that, after these agencies have had a chance to review the documents and complete their work, they will come to the same conclusion as the team’s internal review — that these allegations are simply untrue.”
Asked Wednesday whether the league is aware of the federal criminal investigation, NFL spokesperson Brian McCarthy said: “We will decline comment.”
“The NFL in April engaged former SEC chair Mary Jo White to look into this matter,” McCarthy said. “The review is ongoing.”
White is leading the NFL’s second investigation into matters involving alleged sexual misconduct in Snyder’s organization, including the owner’s own alleged sexual assault of a woman on his plane in April 2009. It’s not clear when White will wrap up. The first investigation, led by Beth Wilkinson, resulted in a $10 million fine and a suspension for Snyder but produced no written report.
The U.S. attorney’s office and the FTC both declined to comment.
The House committee said in its letter to the FTC that it had found evidence of deceptive business practices over the span of more than a decade, including withholding ticket revenue from visiting teams and refundable deposits from fans. The committee outlined, through the testimony of former employees and access to emails and documents, a pattern of financial impropriety by owner Dan Snyder and team executives. At one point in 2016, the team retained up to $5 million from 2,000 season-ticket holders while also concealing sharable revenue from the league, according to the committee.
One former employee testified before Congress, saying the team had two separate financial books: one with underreported ticket revenue that went to the NFL and the full, complete picture. According to testimony, Snyder was aware of the numbers shared with the league while also being privy to the actual data. The business practice was known as “juice” inside Washington’s front office.
According to other testimony, financial misconduct included making it intentionally difficult for season-ticket holders to recoup refundable deposit money, counting some of those leftover funds as a different kind of revenue that doesn’t need to be shared with the league and shifting money from ticket sales for NFL games to other events at FedEx Field as a way of hiding that money from the league. The committee in the letter shared spreadsheet data showing evidence of deposits that were not returned. Citing emails and the testimony of Jason Friedman, a longtime vice president of sales and customer service, the letter said ticket sales from Washington games were shifted to a 2013 Kenny Chesney concert and a 2014 Navy-Notre Dame college football game as a way to “juice” revenue and keep it off the books shared with the NFL.
“The Washington Commanders have fully cooperated with federal and state investigators since the House Oversight Review Committee sent its letter to the FTC on April 12, 2022 — now nearly 7 months ago,” the statement from Brownlee said. “The team has produced tens of thousands of records in response to the requests. The investigations, which ESPN’s anonymous sources have mischaracterized, are premised on the same baseless allegations made by a disgruntled former employee, Jason Friedman, who also is represented by the law firm of Katz Banks.”
Also on Wednesday, Dan and Tanya Snyder announced that they have hired Bank of America Securities to explore potential transactions involving the team. It’s not clear what those transactions might be, whether it was the sale of the team or they are pursuing minority partners.
– – –
The 17-year-old who shot RB BRIAN ROBINSON has been arrested, although we are not allowed to know anything else about him, more than two months after the crime. ESPN.com:
D.C. police on Wednesday announced that a 17-year-old male juvenile had been arrested in relation to the August shooting of Washington Commanders rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr.
Metropolitan Police Department Chief Robert Contee said the young man has been charged with assault with intent to rob while armed. Since the suspect is a juvenile, Contee would not provide his name or any details of his legal history.
Robinson, 23, was shot twice in the right leg on Aug. 28 near a lively strip of clubs, bars and restaurants along H Street in northeast Washington.
The highly touted third-round draft pick underwent surgery and sat out the first month of the NFL season. Robinson first took the field during Week 5 on Oct. 9 against the Tennessee Titans, and has since claimed the team’s starting running back role.
Contee partially credited the arrest to a community tip received by police but wouldn’t go into detail on the nature of the tip. He said the local office of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives was heavily involved in the forensics end of the investigation. |
| NFC SOUTH |
|
CAROLINA
Bill Barnwell on the refusal of the Panthers to take two down-the-road first round picks for the reality that is EDGE BRIAN BURNS:
It should not be any surprise that the defending champions wanted to make a very Rams trade. After reports by ESPN’s Adam Schefter in October that a team had offered two first-round picks to Carolina for edge rusher Brian Burns, there were multiple reports on deadline day that the team in question was the Rams, who had apparently offered even more than those two first-rounders, only to be denied.
This tracks. The Rams love using their first-round picks to acquire young superstars who are still on rookie deals, a tactic which has landed them Brandin Cooks and Jalen Ramsey. They’ve struggled to find much of a pass rush on the edge after losing Von Miller to the Bills this offseason, and Burns would be an instant difference-maker. He has five sacks and nine knockdowns for the Panthers this season after making it to his first Pro Bowl a year ago.
On that level, this deal is simple. The Rams need an edge rusher. They have first-round picks. The Panthers need first-round picks, especially after trading draft capital away to acquire Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Most non-quarterbacks aren’t worth two first-round picks, and — with the 2019 Ramsey deal as a notable exception — most teams that trade away a star for multiple first-rounders typically come away winning the deal. Easy enough, right?
Not really. To start, the Rams don’t have their 2023 first-rounder, which is going to the Lions as part of the Matthew Stafford deal. The Panthers would be accepting first-rounders in 2024 and 2025 for Burns, making those picks less valuable in the eyes of some NFL front offices. A 2025 pick from the Rams might be incredibly valuable if Sean McVay and Aaron Donald are retired, but in the case of Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer, trading Burns for a pick still three years away might ensure that someone else is the one actually making that selection.
On top of that, Burns is only 24 years old. He’s still two years away from free agency. Even if the Panthers take three years to get back into playoff contention, he should still be in the prime of his career. We’ve seen teams such as the Eagles and Giants turn their fate around quicker than it might have seemed after they fired their coaches in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The Panthers might feel like they can contend in a disintegrating NFC South as early as next season if they land the right quarterback and/or right coach this offseason, which would make trading Burns for 2024 and 2025 picks illogical.
There also are reasons to wonder whether this was even a good idea for the Rams. While Los Angeles wants to add another pass-rusher and young star to its core, is it really in position to make another all-in move? At 3-4, the team is off to the worst start of the McVay era. The Rams’ offense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and the offensive line has been shredded by injuries. They might have credibly believed they were a quarterback away when they traded for Stafford or one player away when they dealt for Miller last year. It’s hard to make that same case now, when ESPN’s FPI thinks they have just a 14.5% chance of making it to the postseason.
Even if the Rams don’t want to use those 2024 and 2025 first-round picks in the conventional way, there’s plenty of other options for what to do with those selections. They could trade down in those drafts for more of the midround picks they love. They could move into the 2023 draft. They could also trade those picks next year as part of smaller deals for players who can help at other positions of need, mostly notably in protecting Stafford.
The Rams might be victims of their own success. After all, no team has been more aggressive in trading picks for players, and after winning a Super Bowl, it’s hard to argue any other team in recent memory has gotten better results in making those deals. Lots of deals that don’t vaguely resemble the Rams’ philosophy get lumped in or justified as copying Los Angeles, but I don’t think the Chubb deal happens at the same price today if the Rams hadn’t won the Super Bowl with their methodology.
Likewise, having seen the success the Rams have had in these deals, the Panthers might have asked for more for Burns than L.A. would have needed to provide if they were making this same deal for a similar player five years ago. It’s hard enough for teams to develop a championship formula. Now, having landed on one, the Rams might not be able to follow the same path to a second championship. |
| NFC WEST |
|
LOS ANGELES RAMS
The dog that didn’t bark was the Rams, who added EDGE VON MILLER and WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. last year, not getting a thing done at the Trade Deadline. Mike Jones of The Athletic:
The defending Super Bowl champs badly needed help along their offensive line, and they also wanted another offensive weapon and an edge rusher to help replace Von Miller. The 49ers outbid them for McCaffrey. The Panthers turned down their offer of two first-round picks for Brian Burns. And the Rams didn’t add any offensive linemen. |
| AFC WEST |
|
KANSAS CITY
Jordan Schultz of The Score in Dallas says the Chiefs believe former Gator WR KADARIUS TONEY has capabilities he kept hidden from the Giants:
@Schultz_Report
Kadarius Toney is a really smart football player. Former high school QB whom the #Chiefs believe will not only provide playmaking, but love his football acumen as well. Won’t be hard for him to learn the playbook either. |
|
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
WR KEENAN ALLEN continues to be plagued by a balky hamstring. Lindsay Thiry ofESPN.com:
Coming out of a bye week, the Los Angeles Chargers hoped for continued recovery to their injury-plagued roster, but that does not appear to be the case for wide receiver Keenan Allen.
Allen expressed frustration Wednesday over yet another setback in his recovery from a left hamstring injury, which puts into question his status ahead of a Week 9 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
After sitting out five games following the season opener, Allen returned to the lineup in a Week 7 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. On a pitch count, he played only in the first half and caught two passes for 11 yards.
Allen said he “felt great” in the game, but clarified that he was not 100 percent.
“Nothing happened in the game,” Allen said of the injury when asked how he suffered the setback. “Taking my time with it and just going through it how we planned it and just through the bye week, kind of hit it again.
“I don’t think it was a restrain or anything. It is just some more scar tissue that is trying to break off and whenever it is ready to heal, just got to let it do its own thing.”
Allen, 30, did not practice Monday or Wednesday, saying he felt only decent and was certainly “worse” than before the bye week.
If Allen is unable to play against the Falcons, the Chargers will be without their top three receivers. Mike Williams already has been ruled out because of a right high ankle sprain and coach Brandon Staley said wide receiver Joshua Palmer has cleared concussion protocol, but would not commit to his return on Sunday.
The Bolts also have wide receivers DeAndre Carter, Michael Bandy and Jason Moore Jr. on the roster.
Allen did not provide a timetable for his return, but said that he did not want to come back until there was absolute certainty in his health. |
| AFC NORTH |
|
CLEVELAND
QB DESHAUN WATSON has been in the house and the 3-5 Browns can see the end of his suspension looming. Josh Alper at ProFootballTalk.com:
Browns General Manager Andrew Berry discussed a variety of topics during a Wednesday press conference, including quarterback Deshaun Watson‘s impending return to action.
Watson is nearing the end of his 11-game suspension and has been at the team’s facility for meetings and conditioning work over the last few weeks. Berry said “it’s been great to have him back in the building” and confirmed that the plan is for him to start against the Texans when he’s first eligible to play in Week 13.
Berry doesn’t want the expectations to be too high for Watson’s return to action. Berry said that it’s “not really our mindset” to expect Watson to carry the team once he returns to game action for the first time since the 2020 season.
“We spent a lot of time with Deshaun in the spring in camp and banked a lot of good reps during the time,” Berry said, via Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. “That being said, like I don’t think that our approach isn’t to, really any quarterback, but you know, certainly with the time that Deshaun has had off to expect him to shoulder everything. That’s not necessarily how the team is designed or, you know put together. I don’t know that that would be a fair ask for any quarterback. In a couple weeks, we’ll be in that world where we’re getting him ready to play and we’ll handle it appropriately.”
Given what the Browns gave up for Watson, high expectations are going to be something he and the team will have to deal with regardless of how long that it’s been since he was on the field. Until then, they’ll hope that last Monday’s win over the Bengals isn’t the last they’ll celebrate with Jacoby Brissett running the offense. |
| AFC SOUTH |
|
HOUSTON
After Cleveland amazingly gave Houston a king’s ransom for troubled QB DESHAUN WATSON, the Texans apparently think they can oversell all their assets. Mike Jones of The Athletic:
Speaking of veteran receivers, Cooks badly wanted out of Houston, and a player of his caliber (six 1,000-yard seasons in the last seven years) could have helped a number of teams, Green Bay included. But the Texans reportedly wanted nothing less than a second-round pick for Cooks, and scared teams off. And so, he remains a Texan.
Jordan Schultz of the Score in Dallas has another reason that Cooks stayed a Texan:
@Schultz_Report
Circling back on the failed Brandin Cooks/#Cowboys trade: Sources tell @theScore
it was very real and that Cooks would have loved to play with Dak Prescott. Dallas felt Cooks was a great fit as well. Key issue was the #Texans wouldn’t eat any of Cooks’ $18M guarantee next season. |
|
INDIANAPOLIS
Zak Keefer of The Athletic on how things are shaking down with the Colts offense after OC Marcus Brady has been shown the door.
@zkeefer
Worth noting: While Colts coach Frank Reich will absorb most of the OC responsibilities, his staff will share the rest. A big part of that will be picked up by running backs coach Scottie Montgomery. I think Scottie’s a rising star in the coaching world and could be a future OC.
– – –
RB JONATHAN TAYLOR, the first overall pick in many a Fantasy draft, may be out again. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is not practicing today after aggravating the same ankle injury that forced him to miss two games this season.
Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich confirmed today that Taylor hurt the same ankle that has been affecting him for much of this season. Reich said the Colts will continue to monitor Taylor during the week before determining his status for Sunday’s game against the Patriots.
After leading the NFL in rushing last season, Taylor got off to a very good start this season, with 31 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown in Week One. But since then he has struggled, failing to score a single touchdown or gain 100 yards in any game.
Deon Jackson, who is second on the team with 30 carries for 100 yards, may see an increased workload with Taylor hurt. The Colts traded backup running back Nyheim Hines yesterday but also have Zack Moss on the depth chart and Jordan Wilkins on the practice squad. |
|
TENNESSEE
For the 3rd time in his career, RB DERRICK HENRY is the AFC Offensive Player of the Month:
The Titans went 4-0 in October and running back Derrick Henry was a big reason for their success.
Henry ran for at least 102 yards in all four of the team’s games and finished the month with 112 carries for 563 yards and five touchdowns. His most productive outing of the month came last Sunday when he continued his dominance of the Texans with 219 yards and two touchdowns.
That was the sixth 200-yard game of Henry’s career, which is tied for the most in NFL history with Adrian Peterson and O.J. Simpson, and it was part of a run that led the NFL to name Henry the AFC offensive player of the month for October.
It’s the third time Henry has taken those honors and the Titans will look for him to keep things rolling in November.
Henry also was the player of the month in October in 2020. And also December, 2018. |
| AFC EAST |
|
MIAMI
This from Rick Gosselin:
@RickGosselin9
The Cowboys are one of six franchises still without an individual 100-yard receiving game this season along with the Giants, Bears, Falcons, Texans & Titans. The Miami Dolphins have an NFL-leading eight 100-yard games.
TYREEK HILL and JAYLEN WADDLE each have 4.
Bills WR STEFON DIGGS leads the NFL with 5 100-yard receiving games. Rams WR COOPER KUPP and WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON of the Vikings also have 4.
– – –
Mike Jones of The Athletic on why the Dolphins were Draft Day winners:
The Dolphins have officially gone all in on the 2022 season, acquiring Pro Bowl pass-rusher Chubb and a fifth-round pick from Denver in exchange for a 2023 first-rounder, a 2024 fourth-round pick and veteran running back Chase Edmonds. Miami already had invested heavily in the offense, trading for Tyreek Hill and signing him to a massive contract this past offseason. Now it ships off a first-round pick to give an already formidable defense an edge rusher capable of producing double-digit sack totals. The Dolphins, who reportedly plan to sign the 2018 No. 5 pick to an extension, understand the importance of pressuring quarterbacks, especially as they brace for divisional showdowns with Josh Allen and potential AFC playoff matchups with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
He didn’t even mention the acquisition of RB JEFF WILSON, Jr.
Omar Kelly has this, as exactly how formidable the Dolphins might be is starting to grow;
@OmarKelly
You need 5 things to be a dangerous football team.
Elite QB (Tua?)
Anchor LT (Armstead)
Dangerous WR (Hill & Waddle)
Shutdown CB (Howard)
Pressure player (Chubb?)
– – –
Chubb better be a good player, because he is going to be paid a lot of long-term Miami money. Adam Schefter with the story:
The Miami Dolphins and newly acquired outside linebacker Bradley Chubb have reached an agreement on a five-year, $119 million extension that includes $63.2 million guaranteed, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Dolphins GM Chris Grier, vice president Brandon Shore and Chubb’s agent Erik Burkhardt of Roc Nation Sports did the deal in the past two days, per sources.
The Broncos traded Chubb to the Dolphins on Tuesday for a package that included the 2023 first-round pick that Miami acquired from the San Francisco 49ers last year. The Dolphins also sent running back Chase Edmonds and a 2024 fourth-round pick to Denver for a 2025 fifth-round selection.
Chubb, 26, was in the final year of the rookie contract he signed in 2018, but Grier made it clear Wednesday that Miami did not part ways with a first-round pick for a one-year rental.
“When you do a deal like that for a player, you always would like to — from our perspective when we do business — we would like to have something done, and we anticipate having something finished up here shortly,” he said Wednesday.
The former Pro Bowler has recorded 5.5 sacks this season and ranks third in the NFL with a 25.8% pass rush win rate; his new teammate, Jaelan Phillips, ranks fourth.
Chubb’s career has been marred by injuries over the past three seasons. He has missed 24 out of 49 possible games entering 2022, mainly because of a torn ACL and a bone spur in his ankle. Grier said the Dolphins did extensive research into his injury history and work ethic and determined there was no major cause for concern. |
|
THIS AND THAT |
|
BEST ROOKIES
Chris Trapasso of CBSSports.com picks the best rookies of 2022 at the midway point:
The midway point of the 2022 NFL regular season is here, well, kind of. Technically, it’s halftime of Week 9, so feel free to read this article then. The selections won’t change based on first-half play Sunday.
This is your first-half-of-2022 All-Rookie team. The 2022 draft class wasn’t lauded for its strength at quarterback, and that’s absolutely played out on the field thus far.
We’re running “11 personnel” — one back, one tight end, and three receivers — offensively, and a nickel look — two linebackers, five defensive backs — on defense, the most common personnel packages on each side of the ball in today’s NFL.
Quarterback: Bailey Zappe, Patriots
Zappe’s play in his relief appearances of Mac Jones had Patriots fans buying Zappe Hour shirts and conjuring Bledsoe-to-Brady storylines in their heads. Individually, Zappe wasn’t tremendous in those starts, but the New England offense got a jolt of energy every time he stepped onto the field. There are clear limitations to his game — average arm and mobility — but there’s minimal timidness, which I respect for a rookie passer. Don’t be surprised when we see Zappe later this season.
Running back: Dameon Pierce, Texans
ATT 121 YDS 539 TD 3
Pierce was the seventh running back and second Pierce (!) picked in the 2022 draft. (No relation to Colts wideout Alec Pierce, by the way.) And the rugged runner has been the best, most consistent ball-carrier from his class to date. Kenneth Walker III in Seattle is closing in, but Pierce’s 540 yards lead all rookies as do his 41 forced missed tackles. Pierce is a thunderous back has lightning-quick feet.
Wide receiver: Chris Olave, Saints
REC 37 REC YDS 547 REC TD 2
Alabama isn’t the only marquee college program pumping out first-round pick receivers. Ohio State gets two members on this team, and they were the shoo-ins. And the first half of Olave’s NFL career has been bananas. He was thrust into a No. 1 wideout role with Andy Dalton throwing him passes — not exactly what New Orleans envisioned when the club traded up to get the long-time Buckeyes star — and he’s produced, leading his draft class in receiving yards (547). He’s also made a few spectacular grabs in traffic.
Wide receiver: Garrett Wilson, Jets
REC 34 REC YDS 429 REC TD 2
Wilson, the springier of the duo, has managed the second-most rookie receiving yards (430) despite less-than-stellar quarterback play. He’s forced 11 missed tackles on 34 receptions. That’s staggering.
Wide receiver: Alec Pierce, Colts
REC 24 REC YDS 373 REC TD 1
Pierce sneaks onto the list because of his steadiness in another offense held back by its quarterback. He’s third in rookie receiving yards and first in yards-per-reception, and maybe the latter statistic shouldn’t surprise us — Pierce is 6-foot-3 with 4.41 speed and a 40.5-inch vertical.
Tight end: Daniel Bellinger, GIants
REC 16 REC YDS 152 REC TD 2
Bellinger’s currently dealing with a nasty eye injury, yet the former San Diego State phenom whom the Giants picked in the fourth round has been a focal point of the Giants’ low-volume passing offense during the team’s surprising 6-2 start. He has 16 catches for 152 yards with two scores, and his 6.4 yards-after-the-catch-per-reception average leads all qualifying rookie tight ends.
Offensive line: Tyler Linderbaum, Ravens
Playing the “five best” blockers is a common coaching adage, and I’m following it here, with four tackles and a center for this list. They’ve all earned it. Linderbaum hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was in the Big 10 at Iowa. However, he’s playing well beyond his years in Baltimore’s offense.
Offensive line: Abraham Lucas, Seahawks
The two tackles in Seattle are a damn problem. Lucas wants to punish every defender on run plays and of course is a polished pass protector after his long, illustrious career in Washington State’s pass-obsessed offense.
Offensive line: Braxton Jones, Bears
Jones was a fifth-round pick out of Southern Utah, and although the raw and advanced statistics aren’t incredibly kind right now, in watching his film, I see a long, physical, decently balanced left tackle getting better essentially every week, and Chicago isn’t offering him loads of help on the outside.
Offensive line: Ikem Ekwonu, Panthers and Charles Cross, Seahawks
Cross and Ekwonu, the two blue-chip tackle prospects in the 2022 class, took a week or two to settle in, and now they’re flourishing, particularly when asked to protect their respective quarterback. They’re both calm, athletic blockers. Ekwonu has been studly of late, Cross has been more consistent from the start of the season.
DEFENSE
Edge rusher: Arnold Ebiketie, Falcons
If you’ve overlooked Ebiketie’s production, you won’t be faulted, because the Falcons defense as a whole has been brittle in the first half of the season. But the second-round pick from Penn State has demonstrated all the traits and refined skills that led to him flying up boards during the pre-draft process. He’s registered the third-most pressures (19) on the fourth-most pass-rush snaps among rookie edge rushers entering Week 9.
Edge rusher: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants
As for Thibodeaux, he’s started to come into his own after an injury delayed his NFL debut. Run-stopping, quick pass-run wins — we’re beginning to see the Thibodeaux who shined for three seasons at Oregon. He has multiple pressures in his past five outings.
Defensive tackle: Jordan Davis, Eagles
Believe it or not, Davis is second among all rookie defensive tackles in pressures (seven) at the midway point of the season. He’s been as expected as a rock against the run for Philadelphia’s stout defense, too.
Defensive tackle: Logan Hall, Buccaneers
Lost in the Buccaneers’ disappointing start has been a sneaky-good start for Hall. No, he hasn’t lit the world on fire, yet the early second-round selection has looked the part as a versatile pass-rushing specialist on Tampa Bay’s defensive line. He leads all interior rushers with seven quarterback pressures to date.
Linebacker: Malcolm Rodriguez, Lions
Rodriguez was an afterthought on the third day of the draft, a lowly sixth-round pick by the Lions. But on a brutal Detroit defense, the former Oklahoma State stud has been a man on a mission. He’s missed just 8.2% of his tackle attempts — a low figure — with a pass breakup, a forced fumble, four pressures and a sack as one of his club’s full-time linebackers.
Linebacker: Devin Lloyd, Jaguars
Lloyd gets the slight nod over Quay Walker in Green Bay mostly due to his ball production in coverage. Lloyd has missed tackles at a higher rate than Walker, yet leads all rookie linebackers in tackles (68) and pressures (eight).
Cornerback: Sauce Gardner, Jets
Gardner is the odds-on favorite to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. His 12 pass breakups lead the entire NFL. Despite his lanky frame that typically leads to slower short-area quickness, Gardner’s twitchiness and length help him disrupt passes on a regular basis.
Cornerback: Tariq Woolen, Seahawks
Woolen is another length-based outside corner with blistering 4.26 speed, and frankly, his coverage instincts are much further ahead than anyone — including the Seahawks — probably expected. He has four interceptions to date.
Cornerback: Jack Jones, Patriots
Jones didn’t play early in his rookie season, but then burst onto the scene with a textbook pick-six of Aaron Rodgers a few weeks ago. He had another pick against the Lions. Although he’s missed plenty of tackles, the Arizona State product has been everywhere in New England’s defense.
Safety Kerby Joseph, Lions
Yes, a second Lions defender on this list, which feels insane given how porous Detroit’s defense has been. Joseph was incredibly rangy at Illinois in college and has played like that eraser on the back-end during the first half of his debut campaign for the Lions. He has a pass breakup and two forced fumbles, and teams have shied away from him down the field. Joseph has allowed three catches on just eight targets in his coverage area to date.
Safety Jaquan Brisker, Bears
Brisker was a ferocious, constantly involved defender at Penn State. That style has carried over to Chicago in his rookie season with the Bears. He leads all rookie safeties with 51 tackles and pressures (four). His interception against the Patriots was of the highlight-reel variety. Brisker is a DUDE. |
|
