NFC NORTH

DETROIT

QB JARED GOFF knows what he has to do after one game filled with his interceptions, then another filled with his fumbles.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Lions coach Dan Campbell said early this week that the team was going to do more than talk about ways that quarterback Jared Goff can cut down on the turnovers that have plagued him the last two weeks and they put that plan into motion at practice on Wednesday.

Goff went through ball security drills during the portion of practice that was open to the media. He threw three interceptions in the Lions’ comeback win over the Bears in Week 11 and then lost three fumbles in last Thursday’s loss to the Packers.

“Yeah, it’s great, it’s great,” Goff said, via Benjamin Raven of MLive.com. “Good to do drills like that always, and yeah, I feel great about it. Certainly, an emphasis on it, right? You have a fumble, you’re going to work on it in practice, so it’s something we’re doing.”

Goff noted that fumbles haven’t been a frequent issue for him and that he’s “confident I’ll get that fixed pretty quickly.” The sooner the better for the Lions’ playoff push.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Mike Sando of The Athletic says don’t overlook the Cowboys:

Jerry Jones’ over-the-top ownership antics make the Dallas Cowboys inviting targets. We’ve heard plenty about the team’s easy schedule (Dallas has not defeated a team that has a winning record, after collecting five such victories last season). The giant gap between Jones’ in-season bluster and the Cowboys’ recent postseason record justifies skepticism.

With those qualifiers out of the way, let’s hit those undeniable truths:

• Dallas ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play since Dan Quinn became defensive coordinator in 2021. The team ranked 23rd the year before Quinn arrived. That’s a huge improvement and a leading reason Dallas ranks third behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in winning percentage over that span.

• Dallas has scored 15 touchdowns on defense since Quinn arrived. That is one more than the Cowboys managed in the eight seasons before Quinn arrived. It is five more defensive touchdowns than any other team has scored since 2021 (New England has 10). It is triple the league average since then.

• The Cowboys’ defense over the past three seasons ranks fourth in EPA per play even if we remove all defensive touchdowns across the league over that span. Yes, those big plays carry outsized value, but Dallas has a top-five statistical defense under Quinn even without a big boost from that component. This jibes with the team’s No. 4 ranking since 2020 in defensive success rate, which is the percentage of plays that reduced the opponent’s chances for scoring.

• Quarterback Dak Prescott’s current six-game stretch is the best of his career within a season for passer rating (122.6), touchdown passes (18), adjusted yards per pass attempt (10.2) and net adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.2), per Pro Football Reference. Prescott, in his first season with coach Mike McCarthy handling play-calling, has started the first 11 games of a season for the first time since 2019.

• Dallas is averaging 27.0 offensive points per game, its best figure through the first 11 games of a season since 2007. Having a strong defense can enable scoring by creating short fields, but with Dallas scoring so many touchdowns on defense, including a record five pick-sixes for cornerback Daron Bland, the Cowboys’ average starting field position is merely good (12th), not elite.

None of this suggests the Cowboys are likely to beat the Eagles or 49ers in a playoff game. It’s notable that Dallas ranks only 23rd in rushing defense success rate, which could matter more in playoff games against those NFC powers. The Dallas offense likely will need to play well enough to build leads so that Quinn can leverage the Cowboys’ big advantage in pass-rushing.

The Cowboys can worry about that in January. Right now, they are producing as well on both sides of the ball as they have in a long time.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

Hmmm.  David Tepper fired Coach Frank Reich.  But the subsequent departures of quarterbacks coach Josh McCown and running backs coach Duce Staley – two well-respected and known figures in football – those departures were at the hands of interim coach Chris Tabor.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

After the Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich yesterday, they also fired quarterbacks coach Josh McCown and running backs coach Duce Staley. New Panthers interim head coach Chris Tabor said firing McCown and Staley was his call.

“I made those decisions,” Tabor said. “Coaching is about relationships and I respect both those coaches as people and as coaches. I’m going to keep our talks in house. Anything that we do, we’re always trying to continue to improve our team.”

Tabor says passing game coordinator Parks Frazier will handle the quarterback-coaching duties, and offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will serve as running backs coach.

The Bryce Young-led offense has been a major disappointment in Carolina this season, so it’s not surprising that two offensive coaches lost their jobs along with Reich. It would also not be surprising if Panthers owner David Tepper leaned on Tabor to make that decision, as Tepper attempts to move on quickly from Reich and the coaching staff he assembled.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers have been made the favorites – on the road against the team with the best record in football.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The 49ers visit the Eagles on Sunday, in a battle between the top team teams in the NFL (in the opinion of many).

San Francisco is favored by 2.5 points in the game to be played at Philadelphia. Coach Kyle Shanahan was asked by reporters on Wednesday whether it bothers him that the 49ers are favorited, given the the Eagles are the home team and Philadelphia has the best record in the league, at 10-1.

“I mean, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but I don’t really know how that stuff works,” Shanahan said. “So, I don’t really know why. It is random.”

One basic principle is to set the line to encourage equal amounts wagered on each team. That’s the safest course for sportsbooks, with half the bets winning and half the bets losing and the sportsbooks’s profit becoming the vigorish on the winning bets.

The 49ers are regarded as the better team, records notwithstanding. When healthy, the 49ers arguably could beat anyone in the league — including the Eagles, in Philadelphia.

Then there’s the fact that the 49ers had three extra days to get ready. The Eagles, in contrast, had a hard-fought overtime win on Sunday. That alone creates an edge for the 49ers in a game that could determine home field for the playoff rematch.

SEATTLE

It doesn’t look like the struggling Seahawks offense will be re-enforced by the return of RB KENNETH WALKER III on Thursday night.  Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:

If the Seattle Seahawks are going to get their struggling offense going Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys, they’ll likely have to do it without starting running back Kenneth Walker III.

The Seahawks listed Walker as doubtful Wednesday because of his oblique strain, putting rookie Zach Charbonnet in line to again fill the starting role.

Walker has not played or practiced since he was injured on the opening drive of the Seahawks’ loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 11. Coach Pete Carroll said the hope was Walker could return for the Cowboys game after missing Seattle’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers last Thursday night.

Instead, the Seahawks will again turn to Charbonnet, a second-round draft pick who gained 94 yards on 29 carries and added 33 receiving yards on 10 catches over the past two games. The Seahawks’ other healthy tailbacks are DeeJay Dallas and rookie seventh-round pick Kenny McIntosh.

Seattle’s offense has gone seven straight quarters without a touchdown and has found the end zone just three times in the past four games.

AFC WEST

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

WR KEENAN ALLEN is a notable name on the Chargers injury report. ProFootballTalk.com:

Chargers receiver Keenan Allen popped up on the practice report Wednesday with an injury to a quadriceps that kept him out of practice.

He played 65 of 66 snaps on Sunday night.

Allen was on the practice report the past two weeks with a shoulder injury. He had three full practices, two limited practices and one day he missed in the six practices the past two weeks.

He has been a bright spot for the Chargers this season with a league-leading 97 receptions for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns.

Outside linebacker Khalil Mack (rest) and tight end NIck Vannett (concussion) were the only other Chargers not to practice.

Offensive lineman Zack Bailey (back), offensive tackle Trey Pipkins III (wrist), offensive tackle Rashawn Slater (back) and safety JT Woods (illness) were limited.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

As December dawns, veteran QB JOE FLACCO is moving up the depth chart.  Mary Kay Cabot in the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

The Browns’ fourth starting quarterback this season could be under center vs. the Rams in 16th-year pro Joe Flaccom,.

Flacco, 38, was promoted to No. 2 quarterback ahead of P.J. Walker on Wednesday with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the concussion protocol, and Flacco could get the nod by Thursday.

Kevin Stefanski said he doesn’t have a line in the sand for when he’d rule out Thompson-Robinson, who took a vicious hit during Sunday’s 29-12 loss to the Broncos.

“We’ll work through that throughout the week,” Stefanski Joe’s the backup this week as Dorian is progressing through the protocol.

If Flacco starts, he’ll step in for a 7-4 team, one that’s in third place in the AFC North and the No. 6 seed in the AFC, with seven teams making the postseason.

It will mark the 181st regular-season start for Flacco, who has a 99-81 career record, with 232 touchdowns and 147 interceptions. It’s the fourth NFL team for which Flacco has started, including the Ravens, Broncos and Jets.

“Joe, as you guys know, has been in a bunch of different systems, been in a bunch of different buildings, so he knows how it works,” Stefanski said. “He knows how different operations have different nuance, if you will. So he’s getting up to speed with what we do. He’s done a nice job.”

PITTSBURGH

WR DIONTAE JOHNSON’s first comments since he was caught on film ignoring a fumbled football.  Allison Kohler of USA TODAY:

A large focus of this week continues to be on Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson after he walked away from a live fumble by teammate Jaylen Warren on Sunday.

“I addressed the situation to my teammates,” Johnson told Steelers media on Wednesday. “They know how I feel and how I should go about the situation the next time it occurs. I’ll own up to it. I’m not perfect. All I can do is move forward and keep playing football. That’s all I can worry about.”

Johnson said his teammates didn’t say anything after he spoke with them about it.

He continues to claim he didn’t realize the play was still going. He might want to come up with a different response to that because all he’s doing is making himself look worse.

“If I could make the play again, I’d jump on the ball.”

Mike Tomlin said Johnson can’t let his emotions get the better of him. He needs to move on after a failed play instead of getting caught up in the no-touchdown call.

“It’s not something I do on purpose,” said Johnson. “Nobody’s out there just trying to mess up. I’m human, just like everybody else out there.”

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

It may not be much of a choice, but it appears that QB BAILEY ZAPPE has been chosen over QB MAC JONES for this Sunday’s game.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bill Belichick has not revealed anything about who will start for the Patriots this week. It’s been that way every week recently, with Mac Jones still starting on Sundays.

But it looks like that’s about to change.

Mark Daniels of masslive.com reports that Bailey Zappe took the majority of the first-team reps Wednesday, with Jones running the scout team.

Zappe last started in Week 6 of last season when he threw for 309 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns.

Patriots receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster said Zappe had a good day of practice.

“He looked good,” Smith-Schuster said, via Daniels. “Him going out there, making throws and moving the chains, moving the ball down the field, he looked good.”

Jones has not finished the past two games and was pulled in three games earlier this season. In 11 games, he has thrown for 2,120 yards with 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for a career-low 77.0 passer rating.

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets have opened the 21-day practice window for QB AARON RODGERS.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

A potential Aaron Rodgers return begins today.

Head coach Robert Saleh announced on Wednesday that the New York Jets will open the 21-day practice window for the four-time MVP quarterback.

Rogers will be limited in practices, reducing the risk of re-injury. Saleh noted that the QB is cleared for functional activity but not contact.

“This isn’t so much getting ready to play as much as it is a progression in his rehab,” Saleh told reporters. “I can’t get into all the detail in regards to IR designations and where we stand and why we are able to do this. But for Aaron, what he will be doing in practice is no different than what he would be doing in Field Three — as you all watch it. In regards to certain drills, individuals, being able to throw it instead of staff members it’s teammates. So, there’s no added risk to it. There’s certain things that he’s been cleared that we are going to allow him to do.”

Added Saleh: “Aaron is not going to do anything to put himself in harm’s way.”

Rodgers suffered an Achilles tear on the third offensive play of the season, setting up the Jets 2023 roller-coaster ride.

THIS AND THAT

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Curiously counting the Falcons as a done deal as NFC South champ, Bill Barnwell ofESPN.com identifies six teams competing for the two remaining NFC playoff spots (edited):

The first five spots in the NFC playoff picture are basically settled. Barring something truly catastrophic, we know the 8-3 San Francisco 49ers and 8-3 Detroit Lions are getting into the NFL postseason, almost surely as division champs. The 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles and 8-3 Dallas Cowboys are getting in — one will be the NFC East champion, and the other will likely be the top wild-card team and 5-seed in the conference. Some team, by law, has to win the NFC South. Right now, that’s the 5-6 Atlanta Falcons. That’s five spots spoken for in the bracket.

The other two spots? Those are going down to the wire. There are six teams with a realistic chance of landing one of those two wild-card berths, with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) giving them somewhere between a 20% and 60% chance of playing postseason football. Each of these teams can look at their future schedule and plot out a believable path toward the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at those six teams and their chances of landing one of those two wild-card spots with six weeks of football to go. We’ll go in order of the chances to make the playoffs, starting with a team in the NFC North:

1. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)

Chances to make the playoffs: 58.5%

Chances of being a wild-card team: 46.9%

There are no half measures with the Vikings. After going 11-0 in games decided by eight points or fewer last season, they started this season by losing four of their first five games, all within that eight-point margin. They followed that up by winning five straight games, four of which were by eight points or fewer, even while losing quarterback Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles tear. They’ve promptly followed that up by losing two games to scores in the final two minutes by a combined three points, including Monday’s 12-10 defeat to the Bears.

In all, the Vikings are probably about where they should be. They’re 5-6 in those eight-point games and have won their only game that was decided by more than eight, a 14-point win over the Packers (in Week 8) during the game Cousins was injured. Last season, play-by-play metrics such as DVOA had them as a below-average team with incredible luck. This season, DVOA sees them as an average team with below-average luck, most notably in recovering just 16 of the whopping 41 fumbles in their games so far. That gap was more significant during the 1-4 start, but Minnesota is about five fumble recoveries below expectation this season, which is just bad luck.

The 2022 team was impressive on offense, but its defense was a sieve. What coordinator Brian Flores has done to turn it around has been remarkable.

What’s even more impressive is the Vikings are doing this without key personnel. Marcus Davenport, signed to be the team’s secondary pass-rusher behind Danielle Hunter, has played just 118 snaps over four games while battling an ankle injury. Safety Lewis Cine and cornerback Andrew Booth, the team’s two top picks from the 2022 draft, have combined to play 73 defensive snaps this season, all by Booth.

Instead, other young players have stepped up. Undrafted rookie free agent Ivan Pace has developed into an every-down linebacker. Safety Josh Metellus has developed into a playmaker and ace blitzer; he has five tackles for loss and 10 quarterback knockdowns. Camryn Bynum — asked to play the deep center-field role on the most blitz-heavy team in football — has helped keep the Vikings from allowing a disproportionate number of deep pass completions.

Monday night showed the limitations of what a great defense can do without much help. In a game in which the Bears started three drives within 55 yards of the Minnesota end zone, the Vikings held their divisional rivals without a touchdown, limiting them instead to four field goals across 10 possessions. Keeping a team out of the end zone should be enough; over the past decade, home teams that didn’t allow a touchdown had gone a combined 180-12-1.

The Vikings made that 180-13-1 because the offense couldn’t get out of its own way. The Joshua Dobbs fairytale appeared to come to a very sudden stop on a day in which the journeyman quarterback threw four interceptions and was lucky to get away with avoiding a fifth

– – –

Given how the defense is playing, the best thing for the Vikings might be opting for the quarterback who is least likely to turn the ball over. By interception rate, that would likely be Dobbs, whose 2.7% career interception rate is below that of Mullens, even after the four-interception game. On the other hand, Dobbs also has fumbled a league-high 14 times this season across 12 starts with Arizona and Minnesota, while Mullens has only eight fumbles in four pro seasons.

Mullens has been a more productive passer, albeit while spending most of his career in a Kyle Shanahan offense in San Francisco that makes quarterbacks look better.

– – –

On the other hand, what might serve as the most meaningful gap between the two — independent of scheme — is what Dobbs can do with his legs. He leads all quarterbacks with 129 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) on scrambles, nearly twice the total of the second-placed signal-caller,

– – –

Whoever starts should get to play with Justin Jefferson, who was activated from injured reserve Tuesday and should be able to suit up after the bye. He was averaging nearly 3.0 yards per route run and more than 114 receiving yards per game before his hamstring injury, so he’ll obviously make the offense better. With the Raiders and Bengals up first after the bye, the Vikings should be in position to get in great shape for their final three games of the season. A home-and-home with the Lions sandwiching a crucial home game against the Packers, though, will likely end up deciding whether the Vikings are returning to the playoffs or nursing their wounds in January.

2. New Orleans Saints (5-6)

Chances to make the playoffs: 50.3%

Chances of being a wild-card team: 8.9%

The Derek Carr signing from March was supposed to be simple for the Saints. While Carr wasn’t likely to lead them to a Super Bowl title, a veteran team with a good defense and an experienced quarterback had to be considered a comfortable favorite to win the NFC South. If things broke right, it could get a playoff game or two at home and feel good about putting off a rebuild that has been on the cards since the end of the Drew Brees era.

Now, though, the Saints are a coin flip to sneak into the playoffs at all, let alone as division champs. Last week’s loss to the arch-rival Falcons opened up the race for the South, with the Falcons taking the lead on the head-to-head tiebreaker and holding slightly better odds of winning the division title. New Orleans will have its chance to make things right at home in what could be a play-in game in Week 18, but it’s playing from behind for now.

Sunday was an appropriate encapsulation of what has gone wrong in New Orleans this season. Amid injuries to offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk and wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed at different points of the loss, the Saints were nothing short of infuriating on offense.

– – –

The Saints’ inability to produce in the red zone has been mystifying. They have scored touchdowns on just 42.5% of their trips inside the 20, which ranks 29th in the league. Over the first 80 yards of the field, they are exactly average in EPA per play at 0.00. Inside the red zone? They’re 30th. Only the Giants and Jaguars — who are right alongside them in EPA per play outside the red zone at 17th — are worse.

– – –

It’s only realistic to put a fair amount of the blame on Carr, whose 11.2 QBR in the red zone ranks last this season. His 11 off-target passes inside the red zone are tied for the second most. A couple of those might have been passes he was throwing out of bounds deliberately, but he has missed a few that could have been touchdowns with better placement or timing. When he hasn’t missed, he has been let down by the occasional drop, including one from Foster Moreau that kept the Saints from taking the Jaguars to overtime in Week 7. It’s possible Carr’s timing has been thrown off by the Saints occasionally inserting Hill into the quarterback role in the red zone, but for $37.5 million a year, they probably expected him to deal with a few extra snaps on the sideline per game.

Carr also hasn’t gotten much help in the way of explosive plays from the running game. Kamara & Co. don’t have a single run longer than 30 yards all season, making New Orleans one of four teams without such a run. Some of the data gathered from NFL Next Gen Stats suggest Kamara has slowed down. In 2020, his average maximum speed while running routes was 13.0 mph. That dropped to 12.0 in 2021, 11.3 in 2022 and 10.9 in 2023, down more than 2 mph from where it had been a season ago.

– – –

The Saints are going as far as their defense will take them. They rank sixth in points allowed per drive and have forced 20 takeaways, the third most of any team. When they have allowed even 18 points in a game, they’ve gone 1-6. Every team is better when it allows fewer points, of course, but it’s telling that New Orleans looks mostly hopeless when the opposing team gets to a relatively modest figure.

Dennis Allen’s defense is still struggling to turn pressure into takedowns. The Saints rank eighth in pressure rate but 31st in sack rate. The average team turns about 23% of its pressures into sacks. As you can probably guess, the Saints are converting only a league-low 13.5% of those pressures into sacks. A season ago, they were converting just under 29% of pressures into sacks, which was the second-best rate, just behind the Eagles.

– – –

The good news for the Saints is the same wave they’ve been riding all season: They’re not facing stiff competition. The FPI pegs them as facing the fourth-easiest schedule this season and the third-easiest slate over the rest of the way. Four of their six remaining games are at home, and after facing the Lions this weekend, they don’t have a single team left on their schedule with a winning record. They have home games against the Giants, Panthers and Falcons; if the Saints come up with victories in all three, winning even one of those three would get them to nine wins and probably land them a playoff berth.

3. Green Bay Packers (5-6)

Chances to make the playoffs: 46.8%

Chances of being a wild-card team: 43.9%

No team had a better Week 12 than the Packers. They started things by beating the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving morning, getting a measure of revenge for 2023’s season-ending loss to their rivals. The Seahawks and Vikings, two teams competing with Green Bay for wild-card berths, both lost. The Falcons beat the Saints, and while both those teams are in the playoff hunt, Green Bay would prefer the Saints to be in the wild-card picture, since it beat New Orleans (in Week 3) and would win a tiebreaker between the two. The Packers lost to the Falcons in Week 2 and therefore would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. Even the Jets lost, which helps push the 2024 second-round pick the Packers are getting from the Aaron Rodgers trade closer to the top of that round.

After losing three of four, the Packers have won four straight. And over that stretch, the guy replacing Rodgers has begun to come into his own. Jordan Love ranks sixth in the NFL with a 68.3 QBR over that stretch, within one-tenth of a point of what C.J. Stroud has done in Houston. Love is also sixth in yards per dropback over that stretch, and despite not having a No. 1 receiver and a rotation at left tackle after David Bakhtiari was sidelined for the season, we’re seeing Love grow more confident working inside an NFL pocket.

Early in the season, Love felt confined in the pocket, like a child on a rainy day who was desperate to get outside and play. He was averaging 6.1 yards per attempt on throws inside the pocket through Week 8 despite throwing the third-deepest average pass of any QB. Love had no intermediate game from the pocket whatsoever: His 21.4 QBR on throws in the 11-to-20-yard range ranked, coming along with a minus-8.3 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and four picks on 41 pass attempts.

Over the past month, Love has finally begun to look comfortable. He has the fourth-best QBR on throws inside the pocket during that stretch, adding more than 2.0 yards per attempt to his prior marks. His QBR on intermediate throws out of the pocket is up a full 60 points from where it was beforehand.

– – –

Love has shown an admirable ability to spread the ball around and find open receivers. The next step in his game would be to conquer the middle of the field. He ranks 26th in QBR on throws between the numbers, with a completion percentage more than five points below expectation. Losing tight end Luke Musgrave to injured reserve with a lacerated kidney won’t help; an offseason project for general manager Brian Gutekunst will be landing a receiver who can win over the middle of the field for his 25-year-old signal-caller.

The defense has benefited from some well-timed bounces breaking its way over the past two weeks.

The fumble recoveries won’t continue, but the Packers should force more interceptions. After picking off 17 passes last season, coordinator Joe Barry’s defense only has five picks through 11 games this campaign. Personnel changes play a factor here. Jaire Alexander has been limited to five games by injury, while Rasul Douglas was traded to the Bills at the Oct. 31 deadline. Those two corners combined for nine of Green Bay’s interceptions in 2022.

Interceptions probably won’t come this week with the Packers traveling to Kansas City to play the Chiefs, but there will be plenty of opportunities over the final five weeks of the season. Green Bay has what must be the league’s easiest stretch to finish its schedule, as they travel to play the Giants, Panthers and Vikings and have home games against the Buccaneers and Bears.

The FPI has the Packers favored in four of those games and as one-point underdogs against the Vikings. That last matchup, on Christmas Eve, could end up being a de facto play-in game for a wild-card spot in the NFC.

4. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)

Chances to make the playoffs: 39.7%

Chances of being a wild-card team: 39.0%

After Week 8, it felt like the Seahawks were going to be just fine. At 5-2, they had just successfully produced a comeback victory over the Browns, as a late interception of PJ Walker on a play that could have sealed a Cleveland win turned into a short drive and a game-winning touchdown for Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. There had been hiccups — Seattle had turned the ball over seven times across the prior three games — but the FPI pegged its playoff chances at 76.4%.

That near loss to the Browns looks like a brief respite from what has otherwise been a collapse by the Seahawks. They have subsequently lost three of the next four games by a combined score of 111-61. You could argue they were unlucky to lose to the Rams (Week 11) when Jason Myers missed a 55-yard field goal with three ticks left, but is that any less lucky than having the Browns throw an interception when 3 yards would have ended the game?

The offense simply is not working. The Seahawks have scored a total of three offensive touchdowns in the past four games. Two of them came against the Commanders (Week 10), who were about to fire defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. Losing Kenneth Walker III to an oblique injury hasn’t helped, but the second-year back had generated minus-30 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) and a whopping 11 first downs below expectation, per the NFL Next-Gen Stats rushing model. Only Josh Jacobs has been less reliable at moving the chains when expected.

Quarterback Geno Smith isn’t a one-year flash in the pan, but there are elements of his game that ran hot last season. He has excellent accuracy and ball placement, which helped lead to a league-best 4.8 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). That hasn’t changed too much in 2023, as Smith’s CPOE is still at 3.5%. After posting a 1.3% interception rate during the first 10 games of last season, though, he has thrown picks nearly twice as often from that point forward. Both are better than his career mark before this point, given that he had a 3.7% career interception rate before this season.

Given a clean pocket, Smith can be a great passer. Injuries and subpar play from the offensive line have slowed down this offense, however. He has been pressured on 35.9% of his dropbacks this season, the fifth-highest rate in football. Everyone else who has been pressured more often than Smith (Deshaun Watson, Zach Wilson, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields) is the sort of quarterback who can create his own pressures by scrambling. Smith is getting pressured as a pocket passer, and while he has done a good job of avoiding sacks in those situations, those pressures are capping what the offense can do. His average completion under pressure is generating just 8.7 yards, and his average pass in those situations is the shortest in the league.

With the running game struggling to move the chains and the offensive line allowing too much pressure, it should be no surprise that the Seahawks haven’t been good on third down. They’re converting just 31.3% of the time, which ranks 29th. They fail to pick up a single first down on 37.2% of their drives, which ranks 27th. They’ve only fumbled five times, which is a positive, but there’s a complete lack of consistency from coordinator Shane Waldron’s offense that needs to be addressed.

Third down has also been a tough spot for the defense. Opposing teams are converting more than 44% of the time there, which is the league’s sixth-worst mark

The lack of a pass rush and the inability to sustain drives has led to messy endgames for the Seahawks, even in their victories. In Week 2, they blew a 10-point lead in the final four minutes against the Lions before winning in overtime. The Commanders tied the game twice in the fourth quarter in their matchup, including with 52 seconds to go, before Smith drove the Seahawks into position for a winning field goal. They weren’t as lucky against the Rams, who took a lead with 1:31 to go then held onto that lead when Myers missed his field goal.

All of this is compounded by the fact that the Seahawks are in the middle of the roughest four-game stretch any team might face this season. After losing to the 49ers on Thanksgiving, they will face the Cowboys in Dallas on Thursday night. They then travel to face the 49ers again next week before finishing up this spell against the Eagles. That’s four games against three of the five best teams in football.

If the Seahawks lose all three of those games, The Upshot’s model would drop their playoff chances to 11%. Things get easier after that stretch, but it feels like the wheels might be coming off. They’re going to need to beat one of the league’s top teams to keep that perception from becoming reality.

5. Los Angeles Rams (5-6)

Chances to make the playoffs: 36.7%

Chances of being a wild-card team: 35.5%

Do the Rams qualify as a pleasant surprise? It’s a little strange to say about an under-.500 team two years removed from a Super Bowl title, but most people wrote off this 2023 roster in the sort of season you would simulate through immediately in a video game. With Los Angeles clearly cutting salary last offseason in attempt to reset its cap and clear out space for 2024 and beyond, it looked to be retooling this campaign, if not rebuilding altogether.

Instead, outside of a blowout by the Cowboys in Week 8, the Rams have been consistently competitive. Sean McVay’s team announced it wasn’t breezing through 2023 by whipping the Seahawks in Week 1, and while it hasn’t always been that easy, it has outplayed its record. The Rams were leading both the 49ers (Week 2) and Eagles (Week 5) with 30 seconds left to go in the first half before both teams scored late touchdowns, while they were tied at halftime with the Joe Burrow-led Bengals in Week 3. Two missed field goals and a failed extra point cost them in what would eventually be a comeback win for the Steelers in Week 7. I’m not saying they should have won all four of those games, but they were closer and more competitive than the final scores.

Of course, resetting the roster opened up opportunities for a pair of standout players who might have otherwise been buried on the depth chart. Allen Robinson’s departure opened up a spot for Puka Nacua, who is having one of the most impressive rookie seasons from a Day 3 wideout in league history. The benching and eventual trade of running back Cam Akers created an opportunity for Kyren Williams, who is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and just accounted for 167 yards from scrimmage in a rout over the Cardinals. In a season in which the Rams haven’t had the version of Cooper Kupp they were hoping to see for most of it — he has played just seven games due to injuries — Nacua and Williams have been essential. And as those two players combine to make less than $2 million in 2024, they’ll create significant surplus value and allow the franchise to spend money elsewhere on its roster.

An offensive line that endured a historic rate of injuries last season has been much healthier.

– – –

Stafford is somewhere between the guy who looked like an MVP contender in the first half of 2021 and the player who hasn’t played consistently well since. His completion percentage has dropped by more than six percentage points, although some of that amounts to drops; his 4.7% drop rate is the league’s seventh highest. It might be easy to attribute that toward the absence of Kupp, but the star wideout hasn’t helped there; he has three drops on 52 targets, good for a drop rate of 5.8%.

During that first half of the 2021 campaign, Stafford dominated opposing defenses out of empty backfields, where he averaged nearly 9.0 yards per attempt and threw for 300 more yards than any other player. Since then, whether it has been a product of subpar offensive line play, injuries or some other factor, he hasn’t been as successful. Stafford has only operated out of empty for 52 dropbacks this season, which is a league-average total for a player who worked out of empty much more often in 2021. He has posted a minus-9.6% CPOE and averaged 5.6 yards per attempt there this season. Again, having Kupp on the field would help, but that has to be disappointing given how Kupp once opened up defenses when they were spread wide.

One of the issues that appears to have popped up as the 35-year-old Stafford has aged is a struggle to create when pressured. During the first half of that 2021 campaign, he ranked sixth in QBR when pressured. He was 24th last season and is back there again this season. The average Stafford dropback with pressure produces just 1.4 yards, and nearly 37% of his passes under pressure are off target. Only Bryce Young and Jimmy Garoppolo have been more scattershot under pressure.

The big concern for the Rams was whether they would be able to hold up in the secondary when star defensive tackle Aaron Donald didn’t get home. So far, coordinator Raheem Morris’ defense has done a solid job.

– – –

With three of their next four games at home and a subsequent tilt on the road against the Giants, the Rams are in position to go on a run. If the Rams can sweep the Browns, Commanders and Saints in Inglewood and win that Giants game, The Upshot’s model thinks they have a 90% chance of landing a playoff berth. For a team that hasn’t really lost a game against inferior opposition all season, that doesn’t seem like an impossible task.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)

Chances to make the playoffs: 22.5%

Chances of being a wild-card team: 6.1%

By the FPI, there are 22 teams with a realistic chance of competing for the 14 available playoff spots. The 10 teams not in that group have no more than a 3.5% chance of landing a playoff spot. The Bucs rank 20th out of those 22 teams and last among the 11 NFC teams vying for postseason football. An impressive 3-1 start has given way to mostly frustrating results. Tampa Bay has lost six of its past seven games, and while those defeats have only come by an average of 4.4 points, this team will feel as if it left opportunities on the table.

A slightly better version of this squad would be in position to win the NFC South right now. The Bucs tied up their Week 7 game with the Falcons at 13 with 45 seconds to go, only for Atlanta to pick up 42 yards on two plays to set up the winning field goal. In Week 9 against Houston, a Cade Otton touchdown gave the Bucs a 37-33 lead with 46 seconds to go, but rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud drove the Texans 75 yards in 40 seconds for a dramatic comeback win. If the Bucs had pulled out that game against the Falcons and had held a four-point lead with less than a minute to go against the Texans, they would be 6-5 and in great shape. Instead, they’re another loss to the Falcons away from falling out of the playoff picture.

Frankly, the 2023 Bucs remind me a lot of the 2022 Bucs. This season’s team is being held back by the same weakness we saw last season: They can’t run the ball at all. The 2022 squad ranked last in yards per carry, last in yards before first contact, 31st in expected yards per carry and 30th in rush yards over expectation per carry. The blocking was bad, the backs were bad and the offense never found a solution.

– – –

With the move from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarterback, the Bucs also have run the ball more often on early downs. They have the 15th-highest pass rate on early downs in neutral situations, down from eighth a season ago. They only convert 20.1% of their plays on first and second downs into a new set of downs or a touchdown, which ranks 29th.

It looks like the Bucs are willing to forgo the possibility of picking up first downs early in series to live in a third-and-manageable world, but because they’re not effective running the ball on first and second down, their average third down comes with seven yards to go, which is right at the league average.

– – –

Surprisingly, the other big weakness for the Bucs has been in coverage. They have had to cut back on spending after successfully mortgaging some of their cap future to build the best possible team around Brady, but one of the places they’ve prioritized has been on defense. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are on significant deals, linebacker Lavonte David was brought back for yet another season and linebacker Devin White is playing out an $11.7 million fifth-year option. Safety Antoine Winfield is still around in the final year of his rookie deal, so on paper, this looked like it would be a strength for Todd Bowles & Co..

Instead, teams have been able to throw on the Bucs.

– – –

The Bucs, however, have something no other team gets to enjoy over the remainder of the season: two games against the Panthers, including one in Tampa on Sunday. We’ll see if the Panthers get any better after firing Frank Reich and several members of his staff, but the Bucs’ playoff hopes would be on life support if they were to be upset by 1-10 Carolina. Mayfield and the Bucs still have four games left against the NFC South; they probably need to sweep all four to have a strong chance of advancing to their fourth consecutive postseason.

2024 DRAFT

A Mock Draft from Dane Brugler of The Athletic:

The college football regular season is complete and the draft order is starting to take shape, making it a perfect time to unveil my first mock draft of the 2024 NFL Draft process.

Understandably, most readers will be interested in which quarterbacks made the mock and which teams they’re connected to. But the real storyline of this first mock draft is in the trenches, as nine offensive tackles made the cut. All 32 teams could use more help at that position — some more than others — and this will be a great draft to address it early.

Plenty will change between now and April, but this is still an interesting exercise at this point in the draft calendar. The picks don’t reflect my personal rankings or what I would do, but rather this projection strictly goes by what I think teams would do if the draft was tomorrow.

This mock reflects the updated draft order and does not include any trades. (I also included the first picks on Day 2 for teams that currently don’t have a first-round selection.)

1. Chicago Bears (from CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Justin Fields will be under a microscope the final month of the season as the Bears consider their quarterback options. One question that will help them make a decision: Is the front office prepared to give Fields an extension with $100-plus million in guarantees? Because that is eventually what it will take. If the answer is no, then Chicago is better off turning the page and reinvesting in the position with a promising rookie on a significantly cheaper deal.

Regardless, Fields playing well down the stretch would be nothing but a positive for the Bears. If they do opt to move on, a strong finish from Fields would strengthen the trade compensation offered by Atlanta, Minnesota or whichever team looks to kick the tires on the talented quarterback.

The next step in this “choose your own adventure” epic: Which quarterback should be the pick at No. 1? It is much too early in the process to answer with any conviction (the Bears don’t know, so we sure as heck don’t know). I’ve heard from some Bears fans uninterested in drafting Drake Maye, “another North Carolina quarterback” (Chicago took Mitchell Trubisky out of North Carolina in 2017), and from others who don’t want Caleb Williams because he is “an indecisive passer like Fields.”

Both reasons are understandably jaded based on the Bears’ last two first-round quarterbacks, but Williams and Maye are much more than those arguments suggest. Despite Maye being higher in my personal rankings, I still believe Williams is the favorite to be the top pick.

2. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Another embattled quarterback under an organizational microscope: Kyler Murray, as he returns from last season’s injury. Neither Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort nor head coach Jonathan Gannon drafted Murray or signed him to his lucrative extension, which creates plenty of unknowns for this franchise. But we do know that a trade of Murray is unlikely — who’d trade for that contract? — and cutting him would be easier to stomach a year from now.

In this scenario, I have them keeping Murray (and his hefty contract) for at least one more season.

Last year, the Cardinals drafted an Ohio State offensive tackle in the top 10, and they go back to Columbus for one of the best wide receiver prospects of the last few decades. This pick would come on the 20-year anniversary of Arizona selecting Larry Fitzgerald at No. 3 in 2004, which is interesting because Harrison reminds me of a leaner version of Fitzgerald.

3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

With their quarterback situation in shambles, the Patriots have a bottom-five offense.

In his 24 years as head coach in New England, Bill Belichick has never drafted in the top five, but this season is certainly trending in that direction. That’s the bad news. The good news? This is a great draft for a quarterback-needy team to own an early pick. Maye is a young player and not without his faults, but he has promising talent and more big-time throws on his tape than any other passer in this class.

4. Chicago Bears: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

When you draft in the top five, the goal is to find an organizational cornerstone that also addresses a pressing need. This class offers a pair of outstanding offensive tackles who are not only blue-chip prospects but would also give Chicago a much-needed upgrade at a key position.

A standout pass protector and run blocker, Alt has a massive body with coordinated feet and rare recovery skills, which will have him ready to start as a 21-year-old rookie.

5. Washington Commanders: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

When ranking the Commanders’ greatest needs, offensive tackle isn’t at the very top. But the position hasn’t been a strength, and it would be tough to see the organization passing on a cornerstone left tackle — something it hasn’t had since Trent Williams.

Though he needs to continue developing as a run blocker, Fashanu, who played his high school ball 10 miles from FedEx Field, is outstanding in pass protection with his body movements, angle awareness and ability to sit down versus power.

6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Over the past month, I think Nabers separated himself for several teams as WR2 in this draft. The only FBS pass catcher with 1,500-plus receiving yards in 2023, he also leads the country with 34 receptions of 20-plus yards. The only other college receiver with that many explosive catches over the last five years? Another LSU receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, who had 34 in 2019.

The Giants obviously still have high hopes for Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson, but adding Nabers gives the offense a legitimate No. 1 threat.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Offensively and defensively, the Buccaneers are a middle-of-the-road team, and they’ll have several interesting roster decisions to make this offseason. For one, Tampa Bay will be in the mix to select this draft’s QB3, and Daniels could be it. He has a dynamic skill set to create explosive plays with his arm and legs.

At the beginning of the season, I wouldn’t have guessed that Daniels would appear in the top 10 of my first mock draft. But in studying his tape and seeing his continual improvements, you start to run out of reasons why he doesn’t belong. I think several teams slotted in the top 10 will think the same way.

8. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Assuming the Jets are all in with Aaron Rodgers for the 2024 season, the team’s first-round pick likely will be an offensive player who can contribute from Day 1. Whether you line him up at tight end, wide receiver or a hybrid position, Bowers can be a difference-maker and quickly emerge as one of the Jets’ go-to weapons.

9. Los Angeles Chargers: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

The Chargers feel broken with impending changes on the horizon. Regardless, the organization needs to do more to protect Justin Herbert, and Trey Pipkins III hasn’t been good enough at right tackle. Latham is one of the strongest players in college football and also shows the movements to hold up in space.

10. Tennessee Titans: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

With Will Levis likely penciled in as the Titans’ 2024 starting quarterback, the front office can focus this offseason on building up the offensive line, adding more weapons and strengthening the defense.

There are greater needs on the roster, but the pass rush has been wildly inconsistent this season (when the Titans aren’t playing the Panthers). Turner is a freak-show talent — both against the run and while rushing the passer — and continues to get better.

11. Las Vegas Raiders: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Even before the Raiders cut Marcus Peters, the cornerback position was a significant area of need.

Although he needs to continue getting stronger, Wiggins has an outstanding combination of speed and length with the sudden feet to stay attached to receivers. The Raiders also will be an obvious candidate to trade up for one of the quarterbacks in this class.

12. New Orleans Saints: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

The Saints love to draft flashy new toys, and Coleman comes batteries included and fully assembled. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, he is a large target, but there is nothing lumbering about the way he moves. He is at his best winning at the catch point and can create explosive plays — New Orleans currently ranks 24th in the NFL in plays of 20-plus yards.

13. Green Bay Packers: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Packers’ cornerback situation has been in flux, making it a position the organization might look to upgrade this offseason. Green Bay prioritizes athletic traits and competitiveness, which is why Arnold is the pick here, despite some undisciplined tendencies. Arnold will be ranked higher on some draft boards than his Alabama teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry.

14. Los Angeles Rams: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

Latu doesn’t have ideal length, and I don’t expect him to test off the charts, but some rushers just know how to get after the quarterback — Latu ranks No. 1 in college football with 64 pressures. A pass-rush duo of Latu and Byron Young would be a great foundation for the Rams’ defense.

15. Cincinnati Bengals: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Bengals fans will be understandably dejected if Tee Higgins departs this offseason, but drafting Odunze as a replacement might be the best-case scenario among the realistic options. At 6-3, 217 with 4.4 speed, the Washington pass catcher can create his own spacing mid-route and is also one of the best contested-catch receivers in college football.

16. Buffalo Bills: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The Bills’ starting offensive tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, are only under contract for one more season, so the front office might look to draft and develop at the position before it becomes an immediate need.

Mims is still very raw, but he has the traits to grow into one of the best players from this draft class.

17. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU): Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

The Cardinals’ pass rush has been better than expected this season, but the team leader in pressures is linebacker Dennis Gardeck and there is room on the depth chart for upgrades.

With his get-off, play strength and character, Verse is an ideal fit for what Gannon is trying to build in Arizona.

18. Denver Broncos: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

Three years ago, Patrick Surtain II fell into the Broncos’ laps and since has grown to be one of the top corners in the league. McKinstry took over Surtain’s starting role in Tuscaloosa, and three years later, a talented Alabama corner might once again fall to Denver in the first round.

19. Atlanta Falcons: Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State

A player with a wide projection range, Robinson’s body of work says third round, but his ceiling and flashes point to Round 1. The Falcons’ pass rush has ranked near the bottom of the league for far too long, and Robinson’s explosiveness off the edge is a potential answer to that problem.

20. Minnesota Vikings: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

With his lack of size, Newton isn’t a consensus first-round pick — some teams believe he is more of a second-rounder. But given his disruptive nature while playing a high number of snaps, he offers a ton of value, especially in a lackluster defensive tackle class.

21. Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

General manager Chris Ballard loves trench players with big-time traits and Guyton fits the bill. At 6-6, 320, he moves like a tight end but has the aggressive mentality of an offensive lineman. Investing in protection for Anthony Richardson would be a smart move, and Guyton has the talent to compete for starting right tackle snaps as a rookie.

22. Seattle Seahawks: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

McCarthy is a polarizing prospect. He has all the tools, and NFL coaches will love the intangibles, but evaluators want to see him put the offense on his back and take over games. It’s not that he can’t, it’s that he hasn’t really needed to given Michigan’s play style and schedule.

General manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll see Seattle as a win-now team, but at some point, they will invest in a young quarterback to develop.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

The way things are going with Diontae Johnson, his time in Pittsburgh might be limited. The Steelers have as good a track record drafting receivers outside the first round as anyone, but it would be tough to pass on Thomas, who has outstanding size (6-4, 205), speed and tracking skills.

24. Houston Texans (from CLE): Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

The Texans have a few building blocks in the secondary, but they struggle to get off the field on third downs and are vulnerable in the back end (Houston ranks bottom five in net yards allowed per pass attempt). Head coach DeMeco Ryans is going to love DeJean’s athleticism, tackling skills and defensive versatility.

25. Miami Dolphins: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

Miami has a few question marks on its offensive line, especially with Terron Armstead missing more games in 2023 than he has played. A college left tackle, Fautanu has the play style and aesthetics of a guard but the feet and arm length that can keep him at tackle. Regardless, his positional flexibility provides immediate depth for the Dolphins.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton, G/C, Duke

A college left tackle, Barton is going to move inside in the NFL and projects well at either guard or center. The Cowboys might need help at both spots with Tyler Biadasz a pending free agent and the future uncertain for Tyron Smith. This pick assumes Tyler Smith would replace Tyron Smith at left tackle, thus creating a need at left guard.

27. Detroit Lions: JT Tuimoloau, Edge, Ohio State

The Lions rank near the bottom of the NFL in pressure rate and sacks, and they must continue to build on the defensive line. Tuimoloau isn’t going to win the corner with pure speed, but he has heavy hands and diversifies his attack with leverage and timing to affect the backfield.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

Similar in ways to his former Ohio State teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Egbuka is quarterback-friendly with his ability to find space in coverage. Dropping him into the mix as a “Z” receiver alongside Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk would provide a boost to Trevor Lawrence and create problems for defenses.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston

Donovan Smith is barely a short-term option at left tackle for the Chiefs, and he’s definitely not a long-term solution. Paul isn’t yet a polished player, but he has the length and competitive athleticism to overwhelm defenders once he makes contact.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

With his firm hands and finishing mentality, Fuaga is the best run-blocking lineman I have studied this draft cycle, especially with his ability in zone. His feet get tied up when he gets too upright in pass protection (see: his 2023 Washington tape), but he can keep speed wide of the pocket and help answer the 49ers’ struggles at right tackle.

31. Baltimore Ravens: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Mitchell, who currently ranks No. 2 in the FBS with 17 passes defended, offers size (6-1, 200), speed (4.39 40-yard dash) and a composed play style downfield. He has been targeted 59 times this season and is allowing only 42.4 percent completions with zero penalties.

32. Philadelphia Eagles: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU

Educated guess: Eagles offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland is going to be lovestruck once he gets eyes on Suamataia’s tape. Yes, the BYU left tackle is young and will need time, but Philadelphia drafts with long-term plans in mind. Suamataia has the talent to provide depth as a rookie and the upside to be an impact starter down the road.

Round 2

Carolina Panthers: Jordan Morgan, OT/G, Arizona

With a roster in bad shape and no first-round selection, the Panthers will have added pressure not to strike out with this pick. Carolina needs help all over the field but especially on the offensive line, and Morgan would give them a versatile option. He can be a plug-and-play guard while also providing insurance at left tackle — something Carolina might need if Ikem Ekwonu continues to struggle.

Cleveland Browns: Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

With Shelby Harris, Maurice Hurst and Jordan Elliott set to be free agents this offseason, the Browns might be looking at defensive tackle with their first pick in April. Williams has been a disruptive force for the Buckeyes in 2023 — equally effective stuffing the run and putting pressure on the pocket.